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Mikey711MN
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:11 pm

I admit to being pretty stunned by this announcement, and it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

At this point, if DL wants any sort of focus operation, they'll have to build the satellite concourse. A truly big bite. But I don't see any room for them otherwise.

This is market share protection plain and simple. But not without risk to AA, who is going to need to run a tight operation to make any of this work.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:20 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Either way, it’s definitely interesting American’s going for Liberia. I’m not familiar with the similarities and differences between the two markets. Would it be possible to sustain both AUS-LIR/SJO?


SJO is more VFR/business, less leisure (though it’s not TGU or MGA - there is still an appreciable leisure component).

And I’m not sure why folks are surprised to see AA starting the likes of SJO and SJU. AA has deep, historical strength in Latin America that will help get northbound and VFR traffic onto the flights in addition to the demand ex-AUS.

Northbound VFR traffic from those places to Austin?


Absolutely. It’s no Miami but any US metro of 2+ million will have some.
 
Wacko55
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:34 pm

Mikey711MN wrote:
I admit to being pretty stunned by this announcement, and it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

At this point, if DL wants any sort of focus operation, they'll have to build the satellite concourse. A truly big bite. But I don't see any room for them otherwise.

This is market share protection plain and simple. But not without risk to AA, who is going to need to run a tight operation to make any of this work.


It'll be interesting to see how AA handles gate utilization. A quick check of the arrivals for today shows AA using gates 22, 23, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32 and 34 while DL with half the flights using the same amount of gates, 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10 and 11. Also gates 1-6 are international so AA will be using those as well with all the other airlines that have international service. And once the heavies return gates 1-6 will be tied up for a good chunk of the day. DL can't expand and will be constrained to 4 gates for the majority of the day.
 
AAtakeMeAway
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:55 pm

I find it notable that they're also increasing DFW service by 2 daily flights.
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:13 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
seatback wrote:
I think these routes might last longer than we think. If there's a projected 5M Austin area population within the coming years, AA is making a strategic effort and smart move to build early.

I wonder if we'll see a crew base?

Where is this 5M population idea coming from? The 2020 estimate for the Austin MSA is about 2.3 M.


The area between AUS and San Antonio is filling up fast. The two will become one metroplex in the future. And Some of these flights will draw from SAT as well, beating a connection over DFW, ATL, or ORD.


Has there been any talk of a combined single airport ala DFW...minus one city deciding to keep their current airport open. ;)

This growth will likely free up seats on DFW flights allowing for more growth there in a sense.
 
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24Whiskey
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:24 pm

The entire region is already woefully reliant on I-35 as it is. As a resident that lives in between the two metros I would be against any such measure. On any given weekday 35 has a major accident that will cripple movement for 2-3 hours. If it happens in my town many will try to bypass using city streets which brings everything to a standstill.

Word is SA approached Austin about this concept around when Bergstrom AFB was closing and it was scoffed at.

Also, Austin’s sprawl is largely to the north and is an hour drive in no traffic to San Marcos or New Braunfels - where a Central TX combined airport would likely go.

San Antonio’s sprawl is largely in the north and generally an hour or a little more away from AUS. I don’t have any data but I would hazard a guess that many make the drive for a nonstop to Europe or Hawaii.
Last edited by 24Whiskey on Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
TyroneShoes
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:28 pm

The joint airport idea was actually floated back in the middle 80's and was shot down by those in San Antonio who felt it wasn't necessary to build another airport.
 
Jerseyguy
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:59 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
So much for DL having a focus city. It feels like AUS has turned into a never-ending game of chicken between AA and WN. I'm curious as to where all these new flights are going to fit now when AUS was pretty gate-constrained pre-COVID, like others have pointed out.


Its going to be interesting to see how these routes perform. AUS had delayed its mid field expansion because of covid, if this does well perhaps they will speed the process up. I wonder if Spirit moving to the south terminal is an option. When WN and AA go at it, I wonder if AA will make the mistake of just matching WN with Basic Economy fares. I think all it would take would WN getting the message out about how limited BE fares are compared to their fares to make pax realize how they are the better deal.
 
jplatts
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:48 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
I'll bet half these routes and frequencies won't stick. Tulsa has been tried by at least two carriers from Austin, and both failed. OKC may work, however. Interesting that AA wants to run non-hub flights to STL like they actually merged with TWA.


The situation is different for AA on AUS-OKC/TUL than for VC on the AUS-OKC/TUL routes with
(a) AA having an established FF base in the AUS, OKC, and TUL markets,
(b) WN no longer serving OKC nonstop from DAL whereas WN was still serving OKC nonstop from DAL (and offering connections between AUS and OKC through DAL) back when VC served OKC nonstop from AUS,
(c) AA being able to capture some of the business traffic that exists between AUS and OKC (including Round Rock-based Dell Technologies, who has a campus in OKC),
(d) WN having fewer nonstop flights to AUS and TUL from DAL than it did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, with WN currently operating 6x DAL-AUS and 3x DAL-TUL compared to the 10x DAL-AUS and 3x DAL-TUL that WN was operating prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and
(e) AA would be capturing some of the AUS-OKC/TUL O&D traffic that would otherwise be connecting through DFW on AA with the AA AUS-OKC/TUL adds.
 
DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:19 pm

It is interesting to see how all this AUS service pans out. I would not have thought 5 years ago that AUS would be the GOTTA SERVE IT CITY! Great for the people of AUS as they will have CHOICES on everybody
 
AMALH747430
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:26 pm

SATexan wrote:
AUS-LIR and PUJ are 4 weekly. Heck, DFW didn't even have a service to PUJ not too long ago and DFW-LIR was always 2/3 weekly for a long time IIRC. But AUS-SJU being a daily service is very surprising! Also, I am glad that AA has stepped into AUS-ELP. There are too many passengers (non-corporate) flying this route on a weekly basis; home in Austin and working in ELP and vice-versa. WN had monopolized this route and it's nice to have some competition, although I have to admit that operating it thrice daily is stretching it.


AUS-ELP shows that AA means business with this expansion. Vasu Raja said he wanted to “grow the ******* airline” and he meant it!

I’m not an AA fan by any stretch of the imagination and when AA initially announced this AUS expansion I was a big naysayer but WN has slowly been cutting their intra-Texas routes for some time. I remember back when I lived in Lubbock we had LBB-ELP as well as LBB-AUS both twice daily. WN SAT-ELP hasn’t returned since the pandemic cuts and AUS-ELP only operated one time today. WN doesn’t even work to get between AMA and SAT half the time because AMA-DAL and SAT-DAL have been cut to the bone. I get better connections flying UA AMA-IAH-SAT these days, same with AA AMA-DFW-SAT. AA has a real chance to grab some of that intra-Texas business from WN and this (as well as adding two extra DFW turns) shows they want to play.

WN is stretched thin with it’s interior west and beach market expansion. Add to that they’ve gone into IAH and ORD duplicating service they already had at HOU and MDW. Gary Kelly said the other day that going forward it will take all they have just to restore the remainder of the pre-pandemic network. It will come down to how important AUS is to WN vs. MIA, COS/other CO markets, and MT.
 
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gregn21
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:47 pm

I'm really curious where the extra gate space to support all this expansion is gonna come from. I have a feeling AUS will turn to hard stand ops during peak hours soon with no imminent terminal expansion plans. Craziest part is, it's logical to expect WN and potentially DL to retaliate against AA with even more additional service going forward.
 
avi8
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:51 pm

People forget that WN already has a robust and enviable network from AUS. AA is trying to catch up.
 
etops1
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:32 am

Someone asked about a crew base there . It’s already a DFW satellite base ..
 
LawAndOrder
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:53 am

Y’all act like because a airline announces or moves first that another one can’t come in and still compete. That’s like saying because American has Miami on lock that spirit or southwest won’t be successful. Delta could still compete if they chose to lol. But kudos to AA for jumping.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:56 am

TWFlyGuy wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Where is this 5M population idea coming from? The 2020 estimate for the Austin MSA is about 2.3 M.


The area between AUS and San Antonio is filling up fast. The two will become one metroplex in the future. And Some of these flights will draw from SAT as well, beating a connection over DFW, ATL, or ORD.


Has there been any talk of a combined single airport ala DFW...minus one city deciding to keep their current airport open. ;)

This growth will likely free up seats on DFW flights allowing for more growth there in a sense.

Dallas and Fort Worth are only about 30 miles apart, San Antonio and Austin are about 80 miles apart, big difference. I’m sure both are going to keep their own airport.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:57 am

Jerseyguy wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
So much for DL having a focus city. It feels like AUS has turned into a never-ending game of chicken between AA and WN. I'm curious as to where all these new flights are going to fit now when AUS was pretty gate-constrained pre-COVID, like others have pointed out.


Its going to be interesting to see how these routes perform. AUS had delayed its mid field expansion because of covid, if this does well perhaps they will speed the process up. I wonder if Spirit moving to the south terminal is an option. When WN and AA go at it, I wonder if AA will make the mistake of just matching WN with Basic Economy fares. I think all it would take would WN getting the message out about how limited BE fares are compared to their fares to make pax realize how they are the better deal.


Seriously? I find it amazing they delayed the project... because they thought COVID would somehow affect Austin's future traffic growth? ??? It is a foregone conclusion that Austin will continue to grow and its aviation market will continue to grow.

There are few "sure things" in aviation. But, this is one.
 
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FlyingJhawk
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:13 am

As a MCI based traveler with no reason to fly to AUS, I am certainly interested in seeing if AA can make this route stick. I know WN either is or did but no idea how well it worked/works for them.
 
FSDan
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:32 am

Someone83 wrote:
Is it mostly with e-jets?


RNO, ELP, OKC, TUL, MCI, STL, IND, CVG, and JAX are E75s. The international adds and SJU are 738s. SJU is a redeye eastbound.

AA will have just north of 70 flights a day at AUS in November.
 
FSDan
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:37 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

SJO is more VFR/business, less leisure (though it’s not TGU or MGA - there is still an appreciable leisure component).

And I’m not sure why folks are surprised to see AA starting the likes of SJO and SJU. AA has deep, historical strength in Latin America that will help get northbound and VFR traffic onto the flights in addition to the demand ex-AUS.

Northbound VFR traffic from those places to Austin?


Absolutely. It’s no Miami but any US metro of 2+ million will have some.


I could see there being some small VFR traffic to/from SJU, but the rest of the Latin adds will probably be largely U.S.-origin tourism (PUJ, NAS, SJD, PVR, CUN, LIR, all of which I believe skew heavily towards U.S. point-of-sale traffic).
 
Cubsrule
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:43 am

FSDan wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Northbound VFR traffic from those places to Austin?


Absolutely. It’s no Miami but any US metro of 2+ million will have some.


I could see there being some small VFR traffic to/from SJU, but the rest of the Latin adds will probably be largely U.S.-origin tourism (PUJ, NAS, SJD, PVR, CUN, LIR, all of which I believe skew heavily towards U.S. point-of-sale traffic).


I think that’s right. Keep in mind that a lot of SJU leisure traffic is cruise traffic, which will likely remain depressed for a while.
 
N649DL
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:47 am

hbernal1 wrote:
So much for DL having a focus city. It feels like AUS has turned into a never-ending game of chicken between AA and WN. I'm curious as to where all these new flights are going to fit now when AUS was pretty gate-constrained pre-COVID, like others have pointed out.


I really don't know how DL is going to catch up to what AA is trying to pull off right now at AUS. I was connecting in AUS on DL out of LAX going to BOS for a wedding over Memorial Day Weekend and the Sky Club probably only had half a dozen people present. It was probably the least crowded Sky Club experience since I lived in DEN a few years ago.

Then again, despite AA always being big in AUS, I really don't understand some of these additions such as TUL, IAD, NAS, IND, RNO, MCI, etc. Plus when I lived there, nobody seemed like they were ever traveling on down to the Caribbean. Mexico, yes, but not SJU or Liberia. It would be one thing if AA still had a hub at SJU but that's been gone for over a decade.

FSDan wrote:
Someone83 wrote:
Is it mostly with e-jets?


RNO, ELP, OKC, TUL, MCI, STL, IND, CVG, and JAX are E75s. The international adds and SJU are 738s. SJU is a redeye eastbound.

AA will have just north of 70 flights a day at AUS in November.


And that, without a doubt is basically a Focus City for AA. I don't think DL even comes close to 70 flights daily.
 
FSDan
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:38 am

A lot of these adds actually stand to siphon as much traffic away from UA's AUS-IAH flights as they do AA's own AUS-DFW flights... Especially stuff like TPA, JAX, NAS, PUJ, SJU, and CUN. But I'm sure AA's been looking at their top AUS-DFW-XXX connecting markets when making these decisions. A market like TUL-AUS may not be large, but you'd think the market that does exist would be willing to pay a premium given how much shorter the nonstop journey will be relative to the one-stop options that exist. For a market like MSY-AUS, 10 years ago that traffic probably all flowed over IAH/HOU. However, nonstops cut the total journey time almost in half.
 
OKCDCA
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:07 am

I’m shocked to see OKC. Even more shocked to see TUL. But AA has built a pretty good network out of OKC at a time when WN got stagnant. WN has already responded to Breeze in OKC, will be interesting to see if they respond to AA.

And I never thought I’d say one carrier is responding to another in OKC!
 
laca773
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:54 am

With these new routes, it seems like AA doesn’t have enough space left in DFW. If they are seeing heavy transfers @ DFW to these markets, perhaps they are going to operate them so they have more direct versus flying the short segments to DFW & focus on those trips that are longer & make the most sense to connect in multiple flight banks. Many of the things AA does don’t make the most sense because of their cost structure .
Will the majority of these new flights operate with E75s & A319s?
 
MAH4546
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:58 am

OKCDCA wrote:
I’m shocked to see OKC. Even more shocked to see TUL. But AA has built a pretty good network out of OKC at a time when WN got stagnant. WN has already responded to Breeze in OKC, will be interesting to see if they respond to AA.

And I never thought I’d say one carrier is responding to another in OKC!


WN is only operating OKCMSY/TPA for a very limited time on select high traffic days. I wouldn’t call it a response. I think it’s about seven roundtrips total on each over a seven week period.
 
travelin man
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:59 am

AUS-RNO seems like a Tesla route to me (big battery factory in RNO, and the new truck factory in AUS).
 
alasizon
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:04 am

travelin man wrote:
AUS-RNO seems like a Tesla route to me (big battery factory in RNO, and the new truck factory in AUS).


There might be some Tesla traffic but there already is a good amount of SAT/AUS-RNO traffic as it stands, there are a decent number of call centers in Reno and Tahoe/the Sierras are popular with mid-TX transplants from CA and those looking for some outdoor adventure.
 
OKCDCA
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:07 am

MAH4546 wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
I’m shocked to see OKC. Even more shocked to see TUL. But AA has built a pretty good network out of OKC at a time when WN got stagnant. WN has already responded to Breeze in OKC, will be interesting to see if they respond to AA.

And I never thought I’d say one carrier is responding to another in OKC!


WN is only operating OKCMSY/TPA for a very limited time on select high traffic days. I wouldn’t call it a response. I think it’s about seven roundtrips total on each over a seven week period.

Thanks for the clarification. Similar to what they did to us here in COS with HOU and SAT.
 
KCaviator
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:42 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
From the Indianapolis Airport Authority press release (source: https://www.ind.com/about/media/media-releases/indy-airport-announces-new-nonstop-flight-to-austin), IND-AUS starts once daily from September 8th, then goes double daily on October 2nd. IND will be on Republic E75s, but it'll be interesting to see if Envoy flies the majority of these routes that don't go to an RPA base.


YX already flies other P2P routes from AUS that don’t touch a base, such as AUS-BNA/MSY/VPS/RDU.
 
AMALH747430
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:58 pm

WN’s branching out and being hyper focused on DEN/the interior mountain west is costing them in other parts of their network. They’ve neglected OKC for a while and they haven’t brought back a lot of the pre-pandemic service to their Texas markets. WN already had an equipment shortage when they retired the 737 Classics. The pandemic alleviated some of that but as the “rest” of their network is waking up they are going to struggle to serve everything they want to. Add to that, they’re now duplicating HOU service at IAH. There’s a business case for that, but the aircraft you use for an IAH frequency has to come from somewhere. Breeze sees this and that’s where the SAT flights come in. I think AA sees this and that’s where the AUS flights come in. Additionally, WN is focusing lots of resources on MIA right now. AA may be looking at opportunities to encroach on WN where it thinks WN may have a more difficult time responding. WN is the market leader in AUS but not in the same way they are at places like BNA. WN has a VERY loyal following, I know many Texans that will fly at inconvenient times or fly way out of the way because their loyalty to WN is so strong. However, a growing market like AUS is ripe for the picking.

The key to AA being successful with this AUS “focus city” is going to be logistics and reliability. If the flights are chronically delayed or cancelled, then travelers will go back to airlines travelers perceive as more “reliable” which (even though it’s not always true) is how most of the US traveling public sees WN and DL. For example, if a UA customer decides to take AA instead of connecting at IAH, DEN, ORD, IAD, etc… (or WN or DL through one of their hubs) and the AA flight is delayed or they have a bad experience, that customer will go right back to connecting on their preferred airline. AA is going to have to be something other than what they have been the last decade for this to work.

On the business side of things, the yeilds out of AUS are about to take a tumble. This is going to be a very expensive venture for AA.
 
Ishrion
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:03 pm

Flights went on sale late last night. As expected, there's connecting opportunities through AUS, such as PUJ-RNO, PVR-IND, etc.

Somewhat notable, AUS-SJU is a redeye. Depart AUS at 10:45 PM departure and arrive in SJU at 4:29 AM. The return flight departs SJU 1:30 AM and arrives in AUS at 5:31 AM (rotating 738s through SJU)

From November 2, the schedule modifies. Depart AUS 10:20 PM arrive SJU 4:04 AM (5:04 AM when daylight savings goes into effect). Depart SJU at 8:50 PM arrive AUS at 12:51 AM.
 
CALMSP
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:27 pm

I priced out AUS-CUN r/t and coach was $3,300 for thanksgiving weekend!! Ouch!!
 
OKCDCA
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:32 pm

CALMSP wrote:
I priced out AUS-CUN r/t and coach was $3,300 for thanksgiving weekend!! Ouch!!

I’d check back later this evening or tomorrow. Sometimes when AA adds new routes the fares don’t adjust until a couple hours later or the next day.
 
9w748capt
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:36 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
I’m shocked to see OKC. Even more shocked to see TUL. But AA has built a pretty good network out of OKC at a time when WN got stagnant. WN has already responded to Breeze in OKC, will be interesting to see if they respond to AA.

And I never thought I’d say one carrier is responding to another in OKC!


Why? We've experienced tremendous growth in recent years. AA in particular has been very aggressive in OKC compared to DL/UA. AUS gets a ton of leisure traffic - the youths I know all want to go there for bachelor/bachelorette parties. Plus the Dell connection. AA must have looked at how many passengers are connecting via DFW and decided to give it a go.
 
OKCDCA
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:47 pm

9w748capt wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
I’m shocked to see OKC. Even more shocked to see TUL. But AA has built a pretty good network out of OKC at a time when WN got stagnant. WN has already responded to Breeze in OKC, will be interesting to see if they respond to AA.

And I never thought I’d say one carrier is responding to another in OKC!


Why? We've experienced tremendous growth in recent years. AA in particular has been very aggressive in OKC compared to DL/UA. AUS gets a ton of leisure traffic - the youths I know all want to go there for bachelor/bachelorette parties. Plus the Dell connection. AA must have looked at how many passengers are connecting via DFW and decided to give it a go.

Shocked in the sense I grew up in OKC and can remember the times when you could name the hubs you had to fly through from memory because of the lack of options. I believe this is the first time OKC has been connected to a focus city and not a true hub (outside of WN). I’m absolutely impressed with the growth OKC has seen and the air service adds to go along with it. I wish I still lived there to be a part of it and now reside in COS where the air service resembles that of OKC many years ago.
 
9w748capt
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:10 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
I’m shocked to see OKC. Even more shocked to see TUL. But AA has built a pretty good network out of OKC at a time when WN got stagnant. WN has already responded to Breeze in OKC, will be interesting to see if they respond to AA.

And I never thought I’d say one carrier is responding to another in OKC!


Why? We've experienced tremendous growth in recent years. AA in particular has been very aggressive in OKC compared to DL/UA. AUS gets a ton of leisure traffic - the youths I know all want to go there for bachelor/bachelorette parties. Plus the Dell connection. AA must have looked at how many passengers are connecting via DFW and decided to give it a go.

Shocked in the sense I grew up in OKC and can remember the times when you could name the hubs you had to fly through from memory because of the lack of options. I believe this is the first time OKC has been connected to a focus city and not a true hub (outside of WN). I’m absolutely impressed with the growth OKC has seen and the air service adds to go along with it. I wish I still lived there to be a part of it and now reside in COS where the air service resembles that of OKC many years ago.


Oh yeah for sure! OKC has definitely grown and changed a lot, even in the past 5-10 years. I'm not from OK originally but definitely remember how little air service there was in the early 2000s.
 
CIDFlyer
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Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:25 pm

Wow good for AA. Interesting ads and beating DL to the punch and probably Breeze as well.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 5206
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:45 pm

AUS is a really interesting city to watch here. AA has done some solid expansion. So much with WN and AA is there even room for delta to do too much o&d flying? No real markets are left they are gonna fighting on any non hub adds.

AUS is growing insanely fast and has some similar traits to denver and slc with tech companies and young people moving there. The o&d is certainly gonna keep going up also in AUS for all the same reasons maybe even faster in AUS. Business travel has/will continue to be weak so we will see a different flyer for sure. Tech companies have seen too much savings and have the technology to keep doing things remote but I think AUS o&d will surge without business travel. Young people tend to fly home or want to leisure travel alot more then older cities. I would think AA and WN will have the market pretty well covered especially given the changes in flyers right now compared to two years ago. Not really sure what delta niche would be except hub flying. They clearly wanted to go after business travel in AUS but with AAs larger portfolio now and that segment down not sure AUS is the best move for delta. Woudlnt they be better to focus on other cities?
 
N649DL
Posts: 1185
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:05 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AUS is a really interesting city to watch here. AA has done some solid expansion. So much with WN and AA is there even room for delta to do too much o&d flying? No real markets are left they are gonna fighting on any non hub adds.

AUS is growing insanely fast and has some similar traits to denver and slc with tech companies and young people moving there. The o&d is certainly gonna keep going up also in AUS for all the same reasons maybe even faster in AUS. Business travel has/will continue to be weak so we will see a different flyer for sure. Tech companies have seen too much savings and have the technology to keep doing things remote but I think AUS o&d will surge without business travel. Young people tend to fly home or want to leisure travel alot more then older cities. I would think AA and WN will have the market pretty well covered especially given the changes in flyers right now compared to two years ago. Not really sure what delta niche would be except hub flying. They clearly wanted to go after business travel in AUS but with AAs larger portfolio now and that segment down not sure AUS is the best move for delta. Woudlnt they be better to focus on other cities?


I lived in both places at times over the last 5 years: DEN and AUS and left both back to LAX for different reasons. Both have their respective lists of growing pains, but AUS is *MUCH* bigger for tech than DEN. I feel like everyone in the Denver tech industry knew each other by name because it was so tiny. However, each market is very dependent on air travel because they're both semi isolated. Lot's of transplants in my age group (Late 20s / Early 30s) always flying home or for leisure travel. For me when I lived in DEN it was a lot of Business Travel to SoCal, Texas, Florida, Minnesota, etc. followed by trips to home in the NYC-Area.

Not sure what DL's intent is in AUS anymore (if any) but it's interesting that when I first flew AUS-LAX for work in 2016 it was on a mere 1x daily E170 and recently flew LAX-AUS which is now on a A321. Other times over the last two years I've flown the route in both directions they were on mostly 738s. So they really grew the market over a small period of time, for what it's worth.
 
Alias1024
Posts: 2807
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:38 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AUS is a really interesting city to watch here. AA has done some solid expansion. So much with WN and AA is there even room for delta to do too much o&d flying? No real markets are left they are gonna fighting on any non hub adds.


I wouldn't be very surprised to see DL match CVG and IND since they have strong, long established frequent flyer bases in both cities. JAX is another strong city for DL, but the proximity of ATL and frequency of service is an argument against a non-stop. Maybe they decide to just turn their attention elsewhere and not to throw scarce resources at it. Actually I thought they already had CVG, but maybe that hasn't returned post-pandemic. I don't see it scheduled this fall.

The rest of AA's adds likely weren't even on DL's radar without them building a full blown hub operation.
 
Flflyer83
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:40 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:05 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
WN’s branching out and being hyper focused on DEN/the interior mountain west is costing them in other parts of their network. They’ve neglected OKC for a while and they haven’t brought back a lot of the pre-pandemic service to their Texas markets. WN already had an equipment shortage when they retired the 737 Classics. The pandemic alleviated some of that but as the “rest” of their network is waking up they are going to struggle to serve everything they want to. Add to that, they’re now duplicating HOU service at IAH. There’s a business case for that, but the aircraft you use for an IAH frequency has to come from somewhere. Breeze sees this and that’s where the SAT flights come in. I think AA sees this and that’s where the AUS flights come in. Additionally, WN is focusing lots of resources on MIA right now. AA may be looking at opportunities to encroach on WN where it thinks WN may have a more difficult time responding. WN is the market leader in AUS but not in the same way they are at places like BNA. WN has a VERY loyal following, I know many Texans that will fly at inconvenient times or fly way out of the way because their loyalty to WN is so strong. However, a growing market like AUS is ripe for the picking.

The key to AA being successful with this AUS “focus city” is going to be logistics and reliability. If the flights are chronically delayed or cancelled, then travelers will go back to airlines travelers perceive as more “reliable” which (even though it’s not always true) is how most of the US traveling public sees WN and DL. For example, if a UA customer decides to take AA instead of connecting at IAH, DEN, ORD, IAD, etc… (or WN or DL through one of their hubs) and the AA flight is delayed or they have a bad experience, that customer will go right back to connecting on their preferred airline. AA is going to have to be something other than what they have been the last decade for this to work.

On the business side of things, the yeilds out of AUS are about to take a tumble. This is going to be a very expensive venture for AA.


With the upcoming schedules WN has the following number of flights Sun-Friday (with some variation):
70-75 flights per day at AUS.
195 flights per day at DAL.
155-160 at HOU Hobby + 20 at IAH.
37-40 at SAT.

These are all relatively close or exceeds pre-pandemic levels.
 
traindoc
Posts: 369
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:35 am

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:13 pm

AUS also captures a large number of passengers who come from San Antonio, because SAT has limited destinations. Many people here will drive to AUS to avoid having to connect in ATL, DFW, HOU or IAH.
 
Western727
Posts: 2009
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:38 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:47 pm

traindoc wrote:
AUS also captures a large number of passengers who come from San Antonio, because SAT has limited destinations. Many people here will drive to AUS to avoid having to connect in ATL, DFW, HOU or IAH.


I wondered about that the other day. That does make sense because AUS isn't that long of a drive, especially from the NE parts of metro San Antonio.
 
User avatar
modernArt
Posts: 528
Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 2:23 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:47 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
37-40 at SAT.

These are all relatively close or exceeds pre-pandemic levels.


Pretty sure San Antonio was comfortably north of 50 dailies on SWA during 2019.

San Antonio Airport officials a few years back estimated that the SA region bled as many as 500K passengers to Austin each year.
 
HanCholo
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:12 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:43 am

AMALH747430 wrote:
SATexan wrote:
AUS-LIR and PUJ are 4 weekly. Heck, DFW didn't even have a service to PUJ not too long ago and DFW-LIR was always 2/3 weekly for a long time IIRC. But AUS-SJU being a daily service is very surprising! Also, I am glad that AA has stepped into AUS-ELP. There are too many passengers (non-corporate) flying this route on a weekly basis; home in Austin and working in ELP and vice-versa. WN had monopolized this route and it's nice to have some competition, although I have to admit that operating it thrice daily is stretching it.


AUS-ELP shows that AA means business with this expansion. Vasu Raja said he wanted to “grow the ******* airline” and he meant it!

I’m not an AA fan by any stretch of the imagination and when AA initially announced this AUS expansion I was a big naysayer but WN has slowly been cutting their intra-Texas routes for some time. I remember back when I lived in Lubbock we had LBB-ELP as well as LBB-AUS both twice daily. WN SAT-ELP hasn’t returned since the pandemic cuts and AUS-ELP only operated one time today. WN doesn’t even work to get between AMA and SAT half the time because AMA-DAL and SAT-DAL have been cut to the bone. I get better connections flying UA AMA-IAH-SAT these days, same with AA AMA-DFW-SAT. AA has a real chance to grab some of that intra-Texas business from WN and this (as well as adding two extra DFW turns) shows they want to play.

WN is stretched thin with it’s interior west and beach market expansion. Add to that they’ve gone into IAH and ORD duplicating service they already had at HOU and MDW. Gary Kelly said the other day that going forward it will take all they have just to restore the remainder of the pre-pandemic network. It will come down to how important AUS is to WN vs. MIA, COS/other CO markets, and MT.


I remember ELP-LBB. I don't remember if WN had ELP-MAF. Maybe they did at some point. Either way it seemed after the Wright Amendment's expiration WN cut those routes along with ELP-ABQ. I agree that WN got complacent and into a comfort zone at ELP. WN carries over half of the passenger traffic there. G4's entry four/five years ago woke them up a little and AS prodded WN's hornet's nest a bit with ELP-SAN. Post-COVID seems they are still asleep. I applaud AA's expansion at ELP. I wonder though how WN will respond, if at all?
 
PA12
Posts: 138
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 3:57 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:04 am

Yes WN had ELP-MAF, also had ELP-SFO, and ELP-ABQ.
 
Western727
Posts: 2009
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:38 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:29 pm

DL fighting back on the AUS-CVG route by moving its resumption by 6 months to coincide with AA's start of AUS-CVG flights. But that's the only route DL is fighting back on...notable, for me. https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-def ... cvg-route/

So...why do you folks think DL appears to be ignoring all but the CVG route out of AA's 14 additions?
 
ahj2000
Posts: 1328
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2014 5:34 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:40 pm

Western727 wrote:
DL fighting back on the AUS-CVG route by moving its resumption by 6 months to coincide with AA's start of AUS-CVG flights. But that's the only route DL is fighting back on...notable, for me. https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-def ... cvg-route/

So...why do you folks think DL appears to be ignoring all but the CVG route out of AA's 14 additions?

Delta’s focus city titles don’t matter. Cincy is the focus where the FFs are. Austin isn’t.
 
TWFlyGuy
Posts: 457
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:10 pm

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:44 pm

Western727 wrote:
DL fighting back on the AUS-CVG route by moving its resumption by 6 months to coincide with AA's start of AUS-CVG flights. But that's the only route DL is fighting back on...notable, for me. https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-def ... cvg-route/

So...why do you folks think DL appears to be ignoring all but the CVG route out of AA's 14 additions?


My guess would be that they have some business travel contract that they are either afraid of losing or were told by the client they will switch to AA. For the rest, I have to imagine they are constrained by the same issues AA is getting all the publicity for forcing cancellations. Maybe to a lesser degree but they just don't have the resources.

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