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jbs2886
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:18 pm

tinpusher007 wrote:
KMCOFlyer wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Delta will be getting the cabins redone I would think. As to have conformity.


They will obviously replace the seats, carpets, etc but when DL refurbished their own 738s, the ones without the Boeing Sky Interior did not get new bins or sidewalls like their counterpart 739s.

I remember reading that the Boeing Sky Interior could not be retrofitted into a cabin that didn't originally come with it. I cant imagine why, but that's the case apparently. I certainly hope they have the sky interior.


DL's 739ERs actually have two different bins - some that take luggage on their side and others that don't. My last flight took luggage on its side, per the actual instructions in the bins, but the FAs kept telling everyone no.
 
luv2cattlecall
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:18 pm

Speedy752 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
KMCOFlyer wrote:
What 739 ship #s is DL getting from Lion Air? Hopefully they are getting some of their newer ones. Currently all of DLs 739 are new enough to have the Sky Interior and many of Lion Airs 739s pre-date the 2011 launch of the Sky Interior and have the older legacy interior.

Delta will be getting the cabins redone I would think. As to have conformity.

Wouldn’t they also want to be inspecting every corner of the plane as well? It sounds like these are semi “repos” so I’m sure there’s some deferred maintenance on them.

I wonder how long before we see something to replace the aging 319/320/738s. Yes I realize all of these are to replace some of last years retirements but they haven’t shown any fleet direction below large narrow body size. I suspect they’ll be on a shopping spree given the rebound and how much capacity they retired and want to retire.


Isn't the A220 the answer to the below-large-narrowbody category?
 
448205
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:26 pm

tinpusher007 wrote:
KMCOFlyer wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Delta will be getting the cabins redone I would think. As to have conformity.


They will obviously replace the seats, carpets, etc but when DL refurbished their own 738s, the ones without the Boeing Sky Interior did not get new bins or sidewalls like their counterpart 739s.

I remember reading that the Boeing Sky Interior could not be retrofitted into a cabin that didn't originally come with it. I cant imagine why, but that's the case apparently. I certainly hope they have the sky interior.



It can, but its substantially more expensive.
 
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Continental767
Posts: 191
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:34 pm

tinpusher007 wrote:
KMCOFlyer wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Delta will be getting the cabins redone I would think. As to have conformity.


They will obviously replace the seats, carpets, etc but when DL refurbished their own 738s, the ones without the Boeing Sky Interior did not get new bins or sidewalls like their counterpart 739s.

I remember reading that the Boeing Sky Interior could not be retrofitted into a cabin that didn't originally come with it. I cant imagine why, but that's the case apparently. I certainly hope they have the sky interior.


AA just finished updating all of its remaining earlier build 738s with Sky Interior and Space Bins. It can be certainly be done, but the question becomes how big of an investment will the renovations be if they choose to do so.
 
tinpusher007
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:57 pm

Continental767 wrote:
tinpusher007 wrote:
KMCOFlyer wrote:

They will obviously replace the seats, carpets, etc but when DL refurbished their own 738s, the ones without the Boeing Sky Interior did not get new bins or sidewalls like their counterpart 739s.

I remember reading that the Boeing Sky Interior could not be retrofitted into a cabin that didn't originally come with it. I cant imagine why, but that's the case apparently. I certainly hope they have the sky interior.


AA just finished updating all of its remaining earlier build 738s with Sky Interior and Space Bins. It can be certainly be done, but the question becomes how big of an investment will the renovations be if they choose to do so.

Well, we did it on the 320's. This topic will be old news by the time Delta puts out any official press release about it.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:09 am

Speedy752 wrote:
I wonder how long before we see something to replace the aging 319/320/738s. Yes I realize all of these are to replace some of last years retirements but they haven’t shown any fleet direction below large narrow body size. I suspect they’ll be on a shopping spree given the rebound and how much capacity they retired and want to retire.


Delivery dates of DL's A319, A320 & B738:
* excludes the remaining aircraft from NW's original A320 order (originally delivered 1991-1993)
* DL also took delivery of two new B738 in 2010 and picked-up four used aircraft built in 2012-2014

1998: 18
1999: 20
2000: 29
2001: 43
2002: 30
2003: 15

DL also has 64 B757 built during this same time frame. That's over 200 aircraft, most of which are just turning 20yo. The reason there's no direction for the replacement of these aircraft... is because they'll be around for awhile.
 
777Mech
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:42 am

Speedy752 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
KMCOFlyer wrote:
What 739 ship #s is DL getting from Lion Air? Hopefully they are getting some of their newer ones. Currently all of DLs 739 are new enough to have the Sky Interior and many of Lion Airs 739s pre-date the 2011 launch of the Sky Interior and have the older legacy interior.

Delta will be getting the cabins redone I would think. As to have conformity.

Wouldn’t they also want to be inspecting every corner of the plane as well? It sounds like these are semi “repos” so I’m sure there’s some deferred maintenance on them.

I wonder how long before we see something to replace the aging 319/320/738s. Yes I realize all of these are to replace some of last years retirements but they haven’t shown any fleet direction below large narrow body size. I suspect they’ll be on a shopping spree given the rebound and how much capacity they retired and want to retire.


FWIW there are zero plans to retire any narrowbodies as of yet beyond what has already gone. The 738s will be getting a refresh very soon and the 320s and 319s are continuing to go through heavy checks.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:54 am

777Mech wrote:
FWIW there are zero plans to retire any narrowbodies as of yet beyond what has already gone. The 738s will be getting a refresh very soon and the 320s and 319s are continuing to go through heavy checks.


Does this mean the few A320s temporarily brought back are now back in the fleet on a longer-term basis?
 
777Mech
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:54 am

jbs2886 wrote:
777Mech wrote:
FWIW there are zero plans to retire any narrowbodies as of yet beyond what has already gone. The 738s will be getting a refresh very soon and the 320s and 319s are continuing to go through heavy checks.


Does this mean the few A320s temporarily brought back are now back in the fleet on a longer-term basis?


It remains to be seen what has already been parted out, but supposedly an A320 is going to leave BYH to join the fleet.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:20 pm

777Mech wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
777Mech wrote:
FWIW there are zero plans to retire any narrowbodies as of yet beyond what has already gone. The 738s will be getting a refresh very soon and the 320s and 319s are continuing to go through heavy checks.


Does this mean the few A320s temporarily brought back are now back in the fleet on a longer-term basis?


It remains to be seen what has already been parted out, but supposedly an A320 is going to leave BYH to join the fleet.

A320 3217 it must be.... it was stored in MCI originally when during the mass storage event, but then ferried to BYH in January 2021.
The other 6 A320s were the ones that were next up for heavy maintenance in 2020 that have been parked in BHM.
 
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res77W
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:18 pm

DL hasn't reserved any N-numbers for the rumored 739s yet have they? Is it too early to assume they'll continue the 3900 sequence after ship 3930?

-Rowen
 
timf
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:42 pm

res77W wrote:
DL hasn't reserved any N-numbers for the rumored 739s yet have they? Is it too early to assume they'll continue the 3900 sequence after ship 3930?

Nope, I've checked a few times and there's nothing new in the 900s. If the rumor does turn out to be true, this will likely be the first indication. I do expect them to continue the existing sequence since there is no chance of future newbuild orders like there are for the A350s.
 
Speedy752
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:15 pm

luv2cattlecall wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Delta will be getting the cabins redone I would think. As to have conformity.

Wouldn’t they also want to be inspecting every corner of the plane as well? It sounds like these are semi “repos” so I’m sure there’s some deferred maintenance on them.

I wonder how long before we see something to replace the aging 319/320/738s. Yes I realize all of these are to replace some of last years retirements but they haven’t shown any fleet direction below large narrow body size. I suspect they’ll be on a shopping spree given the rebound and how much capacity they retired and want to retire.


Isn't the A220 the answer to the below-large-narrowbody category?


The a220 was the answer for some MD88 routes and would be the 717 sized replacement but the a320/738 size is one where there’s been no indication. It’s possible they have a gap from 223 to 739 in future fleet plans. Sounds like from others there isn’t any near term replacement plans but I’d have to imagine as they turn 20 the orders would need to start being placed, I’m not sure how short term deliveries could be for Airbus or Boeing. It’s equally likely the incremental revenue potential of a 739/max10/321neo is enough that they don’t replace this size and go larger exclusively based on incremental trip costs being low. Off topic but does anyone know the trip cost difference between say a 320 and 321 of the same vintage?
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:12 pm

Speedy752 wrote:
The a220 was the answer for some MD88 routes and would be the 717 sized replacement but the a320/738 size is one where there’s been no indication. It’s possible they have a gap from 223 to 739 in future fleet plans. Sounds like from others there isn’t any near term replacement plans but I’d have to imagine as they turn 20 the orders would need to start being placed, I’m not sure how short term deliveries could be for Airbus or Boeing. It’s equally likely the incremental revenue potential of a 739/max10/321neo is enough that they don’t replace this size and go larger exclusively based on incremental trip costs being low. Off topic but does anyone know the trip cost difference between say a 320 and 321 of the same vintage?


Changing industry economics naturally change fleeting needs:
- Legacy MD-88 routes at ATL are now being flown primarily by the B739, A321 and B757. Gate space is a limiting factor in growing ATL, LAX, etc. so DL is naturally going to upgauge flights, since it's one of the few ways they can add capacity. There's minimal cost in operating a 738/739, and 320/321.
- Swelling labor costs have been pressuring the economics of the 717, 73G (since phased out) and 319. Despite all the a.net gander that the A220 is a revolutionary aircraft that will connect SLC to every single market in the country, and open up routes like LAX-SBN, I'll handily bet that DL will operate just enough to satisfy scope. Especially since Airbus is unlikely to match or even come close to Bombardier's deal (interest in the type is thin, and economies of scale just aren't there).
- Including the used aircraft, DL will be taking delivery of 300 aircraft in just a few short years. Replacing ~20yo aircraft isn't a priority. Since its bankruptcy, DL has chosen to operate aircraft for the duration of their useful life, and there's no reason to think that strategy has changed. The MD-88 and (retired) 757 flew for roughly 30 years. The 717, MD-90 and 777 were phased out because they were no longer economically viable. With a growing fleet of NG and CEO, there's no reason to believe DL's A320 and B738 won't come close to the 30 year mark. I know this forum is thirsty for new orders, especially of the Boeing variety, but we're 4-5 years from seeing a replacement order for the A320 / B738.
- And ye, for the next generation, for reasons discussed above, most of DL's domestic flying will be operating with 180-200 passenger aircraft.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:26 pm

To add a bit more onto WidebodyPTV's post above, DL has said their business model relies upon getting the full operational life out of their aircraft and taking them up to 30 years (orphan fleet types excluded).

- DL's network, with an inordinate amount of short-haul domestic flights out of ATL that are sub-2 hours, they can place less-efficient aircraft on shorter stage lengths. Fuel efficiencies are better realized on longer-stage length flights. As more NEOs and 220s join the fleet its possible to start drawing down the stage length on CEOs, NGs, etc. The 739ER and A321 are going to be like the 752s in 20 years. Domestic people haulers doing an inordinate amount of Florida turns from ATL.
- DL's internal TechOps and external MRO vendors due to economies of scale on the work sourced from other airlines, and the MRO capabilies in lower cost countries enable them to do more maintenance, and continue to cost-effectively due heavy checks on older aircraft types.
- The concept of flex-fleet, the ability to ramp-up/down utilization due to seasonality / day-of-the week flying, and as a buffer against black-swan events like 9/11 or COVID and the need to quickly lop-off chunks of capacity if necessary.

The bigger question in my mind is actually one that no one really talks about on here.....DCI.
I am curious to what happens in another 5-10 years when a huge chunk of the CR9s are 20+ years.
There is a clear path for mainline fleet replacement. It will be interesting when the 2-Class RJs come due.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:46 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The bigger question in my mind is actually one that no one really talks about on here.....DCI.
I am curious to what happens in another 5-10 years when a huge chunk of the CR9s are 20+ years.
There is a clear path for mainline fleet replacement. It will be interesting when the 2-Class RJs come due.


Completely agree, this seems to be a huge market gap for the US3 that I think someone will try to address. If Mitsubishi was a bit more together, they really had a shot (although updated CRJ possibly, too). Otherwise Embraer has to work on the E2 to comply with scope (I just don't see scope changing) or a new prop that Embraer or others can convince the US3 and American public is good.
 
kavok
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:58 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The bigger question in my mind is actually one that no one really talks about on here.....DCI.
I am curious to what happens in another 5-10 years when a huge chunk of the CR9s are 20+ years.
There is a clear path for mainline fleet replacement. It will be interesting when the 2-Class RJs come due.


Completely agree, this seems to be a huge market gap for the US3 that I think someone will try to address. If Mitsubishi was a bit more together, they really had a shot (although updated CRJ possibly, too). Otherwise Embraer has to work on the E2 to comply with scope (I just don't see scope changing) or a new prop that Embraer or others can convince the US3 and American public is good.


It will be interesting to see if some manufacturer can come up with a short haul 2class aircraft that is at least partially electric powered in the next few years. I know there are a lot of concepts out there, but can the industry get to a point whether the technological and business case both make sense. Honestly, even if it were an electrical prop plane, I think that might be something the next “greener” generation of American public could buy into… even if a generation ago the previous mood shifted to only wanting jets.

With green technology political pressures on the airline industry becoming an ever growing issue, adding an electrical CR9 equivalent would be a good response that airlines could take to counter that. I have wondered if DL (and others) might be holding out hoping that such a plane becomes available. If so, that could address the business need for the smaller capacity aircraft routes, while also being a public relations victory as well.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:53 pm

kavok wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The bigger question in my mind is actually one that no one really talks about on here.....DCI.
I am curious to what happens in another 5-10 years when a huge chunk of the CR9s are 20+ years.
There is a clear path for mainline fleet replacement. It will be interesting when the 2-Class RJs come due.


Completely agree, this seems to be a huge market gap for the US3 that I think someone will try to address. If Mitsubishi was a bit more together, they really had a shot (although updated CRJ possibly, too). Otherwise Embraer has to work on the E2 to comply with scope (I just don't see scope changing) or a new prop that Embraer or others can convince the US3 and American public is good.


It will be interesting to see if some manufacturer can come up with a short haul 2class aircraft that is at least partially electric powered in the next few years. I know there are a lot of concepts out there, but can the industry get to a point whether the technological and business case both make sense. Honestly, even if it were an electrical prop plane, I think that might be something the next “greener” generation of American public could buy into… even if a generation ago the previous mood shifted to only wanting jets.

With green technology political pressures on the airline industry becoming an ever growing issue, adding an electrical CR9 equivalent would be a good response that airlines could take to counter that. I have wondered if DL (and others) might be holding out hoping that such a plane becomes available. If so, that could address the business need for the smaller capacity aircraft routes, while also being a public relations victory as well.


Yes, I almost threw that in my post, too. I think its possibly, but I wonder if the economics can get there on cost.
 
Speedy752
Posts: 166
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:23 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
The a220 was the answer for some MD88 routes and would be the 717 sized replacement but the a320/738 size is one where there’s been no indication. It’s possible they have a gap from 223 to 739 in future fleet plans. Sounds like from others there isn’t any near term replacement plans but I’d have to imagine as they turn 20 the orders would need to start being placed, I’m not sure how short term deliveries could be for Airbus or Boeing. It’s equally likely the incremental revenue potential of a 739/max10/321neo is enough that they don’t replace this size and go larger exclusively based on incremental trip costs being low. Off topic but does anyone know the trip cost difference between say a 320 and 321 of the same vintage?


Changing industry economics naturally change fleeting needs:
- Legacy MD-88 routes at ATL are now being flown primarily by the B739, A321 and B757. Gate space is a limiting factor in growing ATL, LAX, etc. so DL is naturally going to upgauge flights, since it's one of the few ways they can add capacity. There's minimal cost in operating a 738/739, and 320/321.
- Swelling labor costs have been pressuring the economics of the 717, 73G (since phased out) and 319. Despite all the a.net gander that the A220 is a revolutionary aircraft that will connect SLC to every single market in the country, and open up routes like LAX-SBN, I'll handily bet that DL will operate just enough to satisfy scope. Especially since Airbus is unlikely to match or even come close to Bombardier's deal (interest in the type is thin, and economies of scale just aren't there).
- Including the used aircraft, DL will be taking delivery of 300 aircraft in just a few short years. Replacing ~20yo aircraft isn't a priority. Since its bankruptcy, DL has chosen to operate aircraft for the duration of their useful life, and there's no reason to think that strategy has changed. The MD-88 and (retired) 757 flew for roughly 30 years. The 717, MD-90 and 777 were phased out because they were no longer economically viable. With a growing fleet of NG and CEO, there's no reason to believe DL's A320 and B738 won't come close to the 30 year mark. I know this forum is thirsty for new orders, especially of the Boeing variety, but we're 4-5 years from seeing a replacement order for the A320 / B738.
- And ye, for the next generation, for reasons discussed above, most of DL's domestic flying will be operating with 180-200 passenger aircraft.


Not to tangent this thread but would the labor cost issue not mean that:
1. The a220 won’t reach peak success as these economics work against it and it would never grow beyond a320 size under a stretch
2. Wouldn’t this mean XLR and LR business cases get challenged since crew costs are now a larger portion of each seat, limiting its market potential?
3. Wouldn’t that suggest Boeing would be right to launch MoM which will become the new heart of the market if it can do high cycles?
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:04 am

Speedy752 wrote:
Not to tangent this thread but would the labor cost issue not mean that:
1. The a220 won’t reach peak success as these economics work against it and it would never grow beyond a320 size under a stretch


I don't know what you mean by "peak success." IMO, a.net always had bigger dreams with the A220 than DL. I believe that DL acquired the aircraft merely to satisfy scope. They received a phenomenal deal, especially on the original order, and it probably made more sense to dump the 717 than to put additional monies into it. There's insufficient interest in the A220 for Airbus to build economies of scale. Alas, DL is unlikely to get another huge break on A220 pricing, making the difference in A220 and A320NEO pricing minimal. Thus, IMO, the peak fleet size of the A220 is limited. As I mentioned earlier, talks of A220 serving SLC-BUF or SEA-JAX were just a.net lore.

2. Wouldn’t this mean XLR and LR business cases get challenged since crew costs are now a larger portion of each seat, limiting its market potential?


That's pretty much what DL already said -- swelling labor costs challenged the economics of long-haul narrowbody flights. Hence the reason most 757 long-haul flights disappeared well before COVID. It's also the same reason they opted to size up with the 763's replacement.

3. Wouldn’t that suggest Boeing would be right to launch MoM which will become the new heart of the market if it can do high cycles?


It would cost tens of billions of dollars to launch a new aircraft. Is there enough interest in the MoM to justify it? IMO, there would be far more interest in a 737 replacement. Even DL said (paraphrased) they would've preferred Boeing to have designed a 737 replacement, rather than the MAX.
 
jagraham
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:49 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
Not to tangent this thread but would the labor cost issue not mean that:
1. The a220 won’t reach peak success as these economics work against it and it would never grow beyond a320 size under a stretch


I don't know what you mean by "peak success." IMO, a.net always had bigger dreams with the A220 than DL. I believe that DL acquired the aircraft merely to satisfy scope. They received a phenomenal deal, especially on the original order, and it probably made more sense to dump the 717 than to put additional monies into it. There's insufficient interest in the A220 for Airbus to build economies of scale. Alas, DL is unlikely to get another huge break on A220 pricing, making the difference in A220 and A320NEO pricing minimal. Thus, IMO, the peak fleet size of the A220 is limited. As I mentioned earlier, talks of A220 serving SLC-BUF or SEA-JAX were just a.net lore.

2. Wouldn’t this mean XLR and LR business cases get challenged since crew costs are now a larger portion of each seat, limiting its market potential?


That's pretty much what DL already said -- swelling labor costs challenged the economics of long-haul narrowbody flights. Hence the reason most 757 long-haul flights disappeared well before COVID. It's also the same reason they opted to size up with the 763's replacement.

3. Wouldn’t that suggest Boeing would be right to launch MoM which will become the new heart of the market if it can do high cycles?


It would cost tens of billions of dollars to launch a new aircraft. Is there enough interest in the MoM to justify it? IMO, there would be far more interest in a 737 replacement. Even DL said (paraphrased) they would've preferred Boeing to have designed a 737 replacement, rather than the MAX.



Because the A220 is smaller for its categories than the 737 or A320, and has the latest engine, it can carve a good niche. It has to be priced no more than equal on a per seat basis to the cheaper of the other two, and it will get its share of sales.


AS far as NSA goes, Boeing told the airlines they could wait. AA then placed that big NEO order. No more waiting . . Boeing had to respond.
 
crazyjaydawg
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 6:48 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
Not to tangent this thread but would the labor cost issue not mean that:
1. The a220 won’t reach peak success as these economics work against it and it would never grow beyond a320 size under a stretch


I don't know what you mean by "peak success." IMO, a.net always had bigger dreams with the A220 than DL. I believe that DL acquired the aircraft merely to satisfy scope. They received a phenomenal deal, especially on the original order, and it probably made more sense to dump the 717 than to put additional monies into it. There's insufficient interest in the A220 for Airbus to build economies of scale. Alas, DL is unlikely to get another huge break on A220 pricing, making the difference in A220 and A320NEO pricing minimal. Thus, IMO, the peak fleet size of the A220 is limited. As I mentioned earlier, talks of A220 serving SLC-BUF or SEA-JAX were just a.net lore..


While I agree with what you're saying wrt A220 pricing, the A220 is not required to satisfy any scope concerns. The B717 was the carrot that allowed increased 76 seater operations and the next paragraph in the pilot contract says, "Once the number of 76-seat aircraft permitted [in previous section] are in operation, then they need not be reduced [depending on 50-seat operations]."

The A220 isn't needed to replace the B717 for scope. As any pilot hired before that time is protected by a furlough clause that would essentially wipe out the 76 fleet. As long as those pilots stay on the payroll, Delta can keep 223 76-seaters flying.*

*there is a scope issue relating to flow down protections which costs Delta 35 76-seaters, but that is a totally separate issue.
 
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JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1987
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 3:53 pm

Some history from Simple Flying about the relationships between Delta, LATAM, its creditors, and Qatar in the context of the A359s which may end up with Delta.

https://simpleflying.com/latam-airbus-a350s-court/
 
majano
Posts: 463
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 6:27 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Some history from Simple Flying about the relationships between Delta, LATAM, its creditors, and Qatar in the context of the A359s which may end up with Delta.

https://simpleflying.com/latam-airbus-a350s-court/

Thank you for sharing.
Caution: some grossly speculative calculations ahead:
It would appear that Delta exited the LATAM 4 acquisition agreement just in time. By LATAM 4 I refer to the four A350s Delta agreed to buy direct from LATAM in their wide ranging agreement of 2019. I think the exit happened after the onset of the pandemic, so it is reasonable to assume that Delta expected used aircraft values to head south.

Using the widely acclaimed Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing threads started by forum member LAXIntl, I try below to estimate the "gain" Delta concocted for itself by exiting the 2019 agreement and negotiating a new deal with lessors (and perhaps LATAM itself) in 2021.

According to the spring 2019 thread, the A350-900 had a valuation range of USD109M to USD148M. The spring 2021 range for the same aircraft is USD77M to USD149M. Based on forum member timf's contribution above regarding tail numbers and related MSNs, it is fair to say that the LATAM 4 are towards the bottom end of the value range. Indeed, seven of the thirteen are from MSN 35 to MSN 79, four are between MSN 200 and MSN 300 and the remaining two are MSNs 313 and 363.

So I estimate that for LATAM 4 Delta saved USD128M less the USD62M penalty. So around USD66M.
By striking at the right time with the rumoured thirteen frames, Delta could save as much as USD480M.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:11 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
To add a bit more onto WidebodyPTV's post above, DL has said their business model relies upon getting the full operational life out of their aircraft and taking them up to 30 years (orphan fleet types excluded).

- DL's network, with an inordinate amount of short-haul domestic flights out of ATL that are sub-2 hours, they can place less-efficient aircraft on shorter stage lengths. Fuel efficiencies are better realized on longer-stage length flights. As more NEOs and 220s join the fleet its possible to start drawing down the stage length on CEOs, NGs, etc. The 739ER and A321 are going to be like the 752s in 20 years. Domestic people haulers doing an inordinate amount of Florida turns from ATL.
- DL's internal TechOps and external MRO vendors due to economies of scale on the work sourced from other airlines, and the MRO capabilies in lower cost countries enable them to do more maintenance, and continue to cost-effectively due heavy checks on older aircraft types.
- The concept of flex-fleet, the ability to ramp-up/down utilization due to seasonality / day-of-the week flying, and as a buffer against black-swan events like 9/11 or COVID and the need to quickly lop-off chunks of capacity if necessary.

The bigger question in my mind is actually one that no one really talks about on here.....DCI.
I am curious to what happens in another 5-10 years when a huge chunk of the CR9s are 20+ years.
There is a clear path for mainline fleet replacement. It will be interesting when the 2-Class RJs come due.


This seems right, as well as WidebodyPTV's post.

DL has the opportunity to replace the planes on their shorter routes with their in house older NB's as well as purchased used NB's. The A319 and B737-700's on the market are an opportunity as their value has declined so much. The valuations on these smaller ones has not hit bottom yet, nor is their capacity needed right now. Expect a deal in this capacity range a year+ out.

I expect DL to exercise A220 options depending on the pricing associated with those options. It could be 20 or 50, depending on that price in comparison to using older NB's on those routes for shorter lengths and NEOs / MAX on the longer.

The RJ's will need to be replaced, but the availability is only used frames, new E175's, or using mainline E2-190 & 195. With ATL reaching gate capacity, upgaging to mainline may be the answer. Adjusting frequency will need to happen to balance supply & demand.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:31 pm

Folks, this is a used aircraft order thread. While new will compete, please take the discussion on possible new aircraft to another thread.

majano wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Some history from Simple Flying about the relationships between Delta, LATAM, its creditors, and Qatar in the context of the A359s which may end up with Delta.

https://simpleflying.com/latam-airbus-a350s-court/

Thank you for sharing.
Caution: some grossly speculative calculations ahead:
It would appear that Delta exited the LATAM 4 acquisition agreement just in time. By LATAM 4 I refer to the four A350s Delta agreed to buy direct from LATAM in their wide ranging agreement of 2019. I think the exit happened after the onset of the pandemic, so it is reasonable to assume that Delta expected used aircraft values to head south.

Using the widely acclaimed Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing threads started by forum member LAXIntl, I try below to estimate the "gain" Delta concocted for itself by exiting the 2019 agreement and negotiating a new deal with lessors (and perhaps LATAM itself) in 2021.

According to the spring 2019 thread, the A350-900 had a valuation range of USD109M to USD148M. The spring 2021 range for the same aircraft is USD77M to USD149M. Based on forum member timf's contribution above regarding tail numbers and related MSNs, it is fair to say that the LATAM 4 are towards the bottom end of the value range. Indeed, seven of the thirteen are from MSN 35 to MSN 79, four are between MSN 200 and MSN 300 and the remaining two are MSNs 313 and 363.

So I estimate that for LATAM 4 Delta saved USD128M less the USD62M penalty. So around USD66M.
By striking at the right time with the rumoured thirteen frames, Delta could save as much as USD480M.

Thank you for the numbers. Delta did save on widebodies. I think we are approaching, but are not quite there, minimum widebody pricing (not yet, there needs to first be more of a recovery and also airlines to clear out their surplus, mostly by returning aircraft to the leasing companies).

I didn't see any update on the possible 739ER (used) order. Is there any new news?

Lightsaber

Late edit,
I found a site claiming the deals are done (I assume that means signed):
https://theaircurrent.com/three-points/ ... ion-alice/

I'm not familiar enough with that site to believe it or not. (e.g., ch-aviation calls out 5 of every 1 A220 order...)

I could only read the headline, but it looks like (among many other airlines) Lionair is struggling to meet their obligations. As stingy as DL is buying used, I bet some leasing companies come back with another offer for used 737NG. I'm not sure if just 737-900ER, or perhaps for a larger tranche of 737-800s?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-for-jets

Delta's mixed fleet strategy allows them to top off with.
1. New buys, I won't go into this, but I'm sure DL is being courted. I'm not sure if the offers are good enough, yet.
2. A320CEO and A321CEO with CFM engines
3. Used Pratt powered A321NEO (I doubt the offers are good enough, but I would expect some to ask DL).
4. Used 737-800/737-900ER
5. Used A350 and possibly even A330NEOs

I'd like to know who else is buying used A350. The winner's curse of an auction is knowing no one else will pay as much...

Lightsaber
 
oldJoe
Posts: 1039
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Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Folks, this is a used aircraft order thread. While new will compete, please take the discussion on possible new aircraft to another thread.

majano wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Some history from Simple Flying about the relationships between Delta, LATAM, its creditors, and Qatar in the context of the A359s which may end up with Delta.

https://simpleflying.com/latam-airbus-a350s-court/

Thank you for sharing.
Caution: some grossly speculative calculations ahead:
It would appear that Delta exited the LATAM 4 acquisition agreement just in time. By LATAM 4 I refer to the four A350s Delta agreed to buy direct from LATAM in their wide ranging agreement of 2019. I think the exit happened after the onset of the pandemic, so it is reasonable to assume that Delta expected used aircraft values to head south.

Using the widely acclaimed Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing threads started by forum member LAXIntl, I try below to estimate the "gain" Delta concocted for itself by exiting the 2019 agreement and negotiating a new deal with lessors (and perhaps LATAM itself) in 2021.

According to the spring 2019 thread, the A350-900 had a valuation range of USD109M to USD148M. The spring 2021 range for the same aircraft is USD77M to USD149M. Based on forum member timf's contribution above regarding tail numbers and related MSNs, it is fair to say that the LATAM 4 are towards the bottom end of the value range. Indeed, seven of the thirteen are from MSN 35 to MSN 79, four are between MSN 200 and MSN 300 and the remaining two are MSNs 313 and 363.

So I estimate that for LATAM 4 Delta saved USD128M less the USD62M penalty. So around USD66M.
By striking at the right time with the rumoured thirteen frames, Delta could save as much as USD480M.

Thank you for the numbers. Delta did save on widebodies. I think we are approaching, but are not quite there, minimum widebody pricing (not yet, there needs to first be more of a recovery and also airlines to clear out their surplus, mostly by returning aircraft to the leasing companies).

I didn't see any update on the possible 739ER (used) order. Is there any new news?

Lightsaber

Late edit,
I found a site claiming the deals are done (I assume that means signed):
https://theaircurrent.com/three-points/ ... ion-alice/

I'm not familiar enough with that site to believe it or not. (e.g., ch-aviation calls out 5 of every 1 A220 order...)

I could only read the headline, but it looks like (among many other airlines) Lionair is struggling to meet their obligations. As stingy as DL is buying used, I bet some leasing companies come back with another offer for used 737NG. I'm not sure if just 737-900ER, or perhaps for a larger tranche of 737-800s?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-for-jets

Delta's mixed fleet strategy allows them to top off with.
1. New buys, I won't go into this, but I'm sure DL is being courted. I'm not sure if the offers are good enough, yet.
2. A320CEO and A321CEO with CFM engines
3. Used Pratt powered A321NEO (I doubt the offers are good enough, but I would expect some to ask DL).
4. Used 737-800/737-900ER
5. Used A350 and possibly even A330NEOs

I'd like to know who else is buying used A350. The winner's curse of an auction is knowing no one else will pay as much...

Lightsaber


In the Lufthansa Group fleet thread you can see that LH (okay not buying) but leasing 4 A350s from PAL. Nobody knows for sure whether there is a purchase option in the contract or not !? The first is in Munich.
 
777Mech
Posts: 1341
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Folks, this is a used aircraft order thread. While new will compete, please take the discussion on possible new aircraft to another thread.

majano wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Some history from Simple Flying about the relationships between Delta, LATAM, its creditors, and Qatar in the context of the A359s which may end up with Delta.

https://simpleflying.com/latam-airbus-a350s-court/

Thank you for sharing.
Caution: some grossly speculative calculations ahead:
It would appear that Delta exited the LATAM 4 acquisition agreement just in time. By LATAM 4 I refer to the four A350s Delta agreed to buy direct from LATAM in their wide ranging agreement of 2019. I think the exit happened after the onset of the pandemic, so it is reasonable to assume that Delta expected used aircraft values to head south.

Using the widely acclaimed Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing threads started by forum member LAXIntl, I try below to estimate the "gain" Delta concocted for itself by exiting the 2019 agreement and negotiating a new deal with lessors (and perhaps LATAM itself) in 2021.

According to the spring 2019 thread, the A350-900 had a valuation range of USD109M to USD148M. The spring 2021 range for the same aircraft is USD77M to USD149M. Based on forum member timf's contribution above regarding tail numbers and related MSNs, it is fair to say that the LATAM 4 are towards the bottom end of the value range. Indeed, seven of the thirteen are from MSN 35 to MSN 79, four are between MSN 200 and MSN 300 and the remaining two are MSNs 313 and 363.

So I estimate that for LATAM 4 Delta saved USD128M less the USD62M penalty. So around USD66M.
By striking at the right time with the rumoured thirteen frames, Delta could save as much as USD480M.

Thank you for the numbers. Delta did save on widebodies. I think we are approaching, but are not quite there, minimum widebody pricing (not yet, there needs to first be more of a recovery and also airlines to clear out their surplus, mostly by returning aircraft to the leasing companies).

I didn't see any update on the possible 739ER (used) order. Is there any new news?

Lightsaber

Late edit,
I found a site claiming the deals are done (I assume that means signed):
https://theaircurrent.com/three-points/ ... ion-alice/

I'm not familiar enough with that site to believe it or not. (e.g., ch-aviation calls out 5 of every 1 A220 order...)

I could only read the headline, but it looks like (among many other airlines) Lionair is struggling to meet their obligations. As stingy as DL is buying used, I bet some leasing companies come back with another offer for used 737NG. I'm not sure if just 737-900ER, or perhaps for a larger tranche of 737-800s?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-for-jets

Delta's mixed fleet strategy allows them to top off with.
1. New buys, I won't go into this, but I'm sure DL is being courted. I'm not sure if the offers are good enough, yet.
2. A320CEO and A321CEO with CFM engines
3. Used Pratt powered A321NEO (I doubt the offers are good enough, but I would expect some to ask DL).
4. Used 737-800/737-900ER
5. Used A350 and possibly even A330NEOs

I'd like to know who else is buying used A350. The winner's curse of an auction is knowing no one else will pay as much...

Lightsaber


Internal rumblings are that it is a done deal and has been for awhile yet. These aircraft are supposed to be on property and undergo conformity right at the 1st of the of the year.

As for further down the line for the fleet, I think they will be walking back the 717 retirement at least for a few years at least. They're replacement should be exercising the A220 options they currently hold.

The earnings call on the 14th should she'd some light on the direction they're going.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 891
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:58 pm

majano wrote:
Caution: some grossly speculative calculations ahead:
It would appear that Delta exited the LATAM 4 acquisition agreement just in time. By LATAM 4 I refer to the four A350s Delta agreed to buy direct from LATAM in their wide ranging agreement of 2019. I think the exit happened after the onset of the pandemic, so it is reasonable to assume that Delta expected used aircraft values to head south.


The aircraft appear to be leased, so while DL unquestionably got a fantastic deal on the lease term, the savings aren't nearly as dramatic as you speculate. Nor do we know how long the lease is for.

One thing the article failed to mention... is that, as discussed previously on here and APC, the 14 LATAM aircraft (four used + ten delivery slots) weren't acquired by fleet planning, but rather a separate arm whose goal was to close the JV deal. Per APC, fleet planning said they were not necessarily committed to taking delivery of the aircraft, and it was possible they (both the used and the slots) could be re-sold. COVID likely made re-selling the slots unattractive, hence the decision to take delivery of the aircraft and phase out the 777. (DL had too much widebody capacity on order pre-COVID... the amount of seats contributed by the A339 and A359 on order-excluding the LATAM deal-exceeded the 763 and 764 and there was no way DL was going to retire the latter anytime soon.)

crazyjaydawg wrote:
While I agree with what you're saying wrt A220 pricing, the A220 is not required to satisfy any scope concerns. The B717 was the carrot that allowed increased 76 seater operations and the next paragraph in the pilot contract says, "Once the number of 76-seat aircraft permitted [in previous section] are in operation, then they need not be reduced [depending on 50-seat operations]."

The A220 isn't needed to replace the B717 for scope. As any pilot hired before that time is protected by a furlough clause that would essentially wipe out the 76 fleet. As long as those pilots stay on the payroll, Delta can keep 223 76-seaters flying.*

*there is a scope issue relating to flow down protections which costs Delta 35 76-seaters, but that is a totally separate issue.


Thank you for that. I figured such -- arbitration looks at intention, and the point of the scope clause was to grow mainline / reduce regional jobs; ultimately, if DL bumped all the 717 pilots to the higher-paying 737 while keeping RJ counts down, it still satisfies the intention of scope. Yet we have some users who truly believe that only 717 jobs count... whatever.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4024
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Folks, this is a used aircraft order thread. While new will compete, please take the discussion on possible new aircraft to another thread.

majano wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Some history from Simple Flying about the relationships between Delta, LATAM, its creditors, and Qatar in the context of the A359s which may end up with Delta.

https://simpleflying.com/latam-airbus-a350s-court/

Thank you for sharing.
Caution: some grossly speculative calculations ahead:
It would appear that Delta exited the LATAM 4 acquisition agreement just in time. By LATAM 4 I refer to the four A350s Delta agreed to buy direct from LATAM in their wide ranging agreement of 2019. I think the exit happened after the onset of the pandemic, so it is reasonable to assume that Delta expected used aircraft values to head south.

Using the widely acclaimed Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing threads started by forum member LAXIntl, I try below to estimate the "gain" Delta concocted for itself by exiting the 2019 agreement and negotiating a new deal with lessors (and perhaps LATAM itself) in 2021.

According to the spring 2019 thread, the A350-900 had a valuation range of USD109M to USD148M. The spring 2021 range for the same aircraft is USD77M to USD149M. Based on forum member timf's contribution above regarding tail numbers and related MSNs, it is fair to say that the LATAM 4 are towards the bottom end of the value range. Indeed, seven of the thirteen are from MSN 35 to MSN 79, four are between MSN 200 and MSN 300 and the remaining two are MSNs 313 and 363.

So I estimate that for LATAM 4 Delta saved USD128M less the USD62M penalty. So around USD66M.
By striking at the right time with the rumoured thirteen frames, Delta could save as much as USD480M.

Thank you for the numbers. Delta did save on widebodies. I think we are approaching, but are not quite there, minimum widebody pricing (not yet, there needs to first be more of a recovery and also airlines to clear out their surplus, mostly by returning aircraft to the leasing companies).

I didn't see any update on the possible 739ER (used) order. Is there any new news?

Lightsaber

Late edit,
I found a site claiming the deals are done (I assume that means signed):
https://theaircurrent.com/three-points/ ... ion-alice/

I'm not familiar enough with that site to believe it or not. (e.g., ch-aviation calls out 5 of every 1 A220 order...)

I could only read the headline, but it looks like (among many other airlines) Lionair is struggling to meet their obligations. As stingy as DL is buying used, I bet some leasing companies come back with another offer for used 737NG. I'm not sure if just 737-900ER, or perhaps for a larger tranche of 737-800s?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-for-jets

Delta's mixed fleet strategy allows them to top off with.
1. New buys, I won't go into this, but I'm sure DL is being courted. I'm not sure if the offers are good enough, yet.
2. A320CEO and A321CEO with CFM engines
3. Used Pratt powered A321NEO (I doubt the offers are good enough, but I would expect some to ask DL).
4. Used 737-800/737-900ER
5. Used A350 and possibly even A330NEOs

I'd like to know who else is buying used A350. The winner's curse of an auction is knowing no one else will pay as much...

Lightsaber


The Air Current is Jon Ostrower’s site and is very reputable.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4024
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:02 pm

777Mech wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Folks, this is a used aircraft order thread. While new will compete, please take the discussion on possible new aircraft to another thread.

majano wrote:
Thank you for sharing.
Caution: some grossly speculative calculations ahead:
It would appear that Delta exited the LATAM 4 acquisition agreement just in time. By LATAM 4 I refer to the four A350s Delta agreed to buy direct from LATAM in their wide ranging agreement of 2019. I think the exit happened after the onset of the pandemic, so it is reasonable to assume that Delta expected used aircraft values to head south.

Using the widely acclaimed Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing threads started by forum member LAXIntl, I try below to estimate the "gain" Delta concocted for itself by exiting the 2019 agreement and negotiating a new deal with lessors (and perhaps LATAM itself) in 2021.

According to the spring 2019 thread, the A350-900 had a valuation range of USD109M to USD148M. The spring 2021 range for the same aircraft is USD77M to USD149M. Based on forum member timf's contribution above regarding tail numbers and related MSNs, it is fair to say that the LATAM 4 are towards the bottom end of the value range. Indeed, seven of the thirteen are from MSN 35 to MSN 79, four are between MSN 200 and MSN 300 and the remaining two are MSNs 313 and 363.

So I estimate that for LATAM 4 Delta saved USD128M less the USD62M penalty. So around USD66M.
By striking at the right time with the rumoured thirteen frames, Delta could save as much as USD480M.

Thank you for the numbers. Delta did save on widebodies. I think we are approaching, but are not quite there, minimum widebody pricing (not yet, there needs to first be more of a recovery and also airlines to clear out their surplus, mostly by returning aircraft to the leasing companies).

I didn't see any update on the possible 739ER (used) order. Is there any new news?

Lightsaber

Late edit,
I found a site claiming the deals are done (I assume that means signed):
https://theaircurrent.com/three-points/ ... ion-alice/

I'm not familiar enough with that site to believe it or not. (e.g., ch-aviation calls out 5 of every 1 A220 order...)

I could only read the headline, but it looks like (among many other airlines) Lionair is struggling to meet their obligations. As stingy as DL is buying used, I bet some leasing companies come back with another offer for used 737NG. I'm not sure if just 737-900ER, or perhaps for a larger tranche of 737-800s?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-for-jets

Delta's mixed fleet strategy allows them to top off with.
1. New buys, I won't go into this, but I'm sure DL is being courted. I'm not sure if the offers are good enough, yet.
2. A320CEO and A321CEO with CFM engines
3. Used Pratt powered A321NEO (I doubt the offers are good enough, but I would expect some to ask DL).
4. Used 737-800/737-900ER
5. Used A350 and possibly even A330NEOs

I'd like to know who else is buying used A350. The winner's curse of an auction is knowing no one else will pay as much...

Lightsaber


Internal rumblings are that it is a done deal and has been for awhile yet. These aircraft are supposed to be on property and undergo conformity right at the 1st of the of the year.

As for further down the line for the fleet, I think they will be walking back the 717 retirement at least for a few years at least. They're replacement should be exercising the A220 options they currently hold.

The earnings call on the 14th should she'd some light on the direction they're going.


Is DL looking for more beyond the 9(?) LATAM A350s and 29 739ERs?
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 891
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:30 pm

777Mech wrote:
Internal rumblings are that it is a done deal and has been for awhile yet. These aircraft are supposed to be on property and undergo conformity right at the 1st of the of the year.

As for further down the line for the fleet, I think they will be walking back the 717 retirement at least for a few years at least. They're replacement should be exercising the A220 options they currently hold.

The earnings call on the 14th should she'd some light on the direction they're going.


I read elsewhere that DL returned another 717 to Boeing recently (it may have already been parked), so the fleet will probably continue to shrink. I doubt DL will continue to operate what's basically a sub fleet for much longer.

jbs2886 wrote:
The Air Current is Jon Ostrower’s site and is very reputable.


I believe it's a done deal for DL because credible sources leaked some details of the order awhile ago. Jon Ostreower is a good journalist, but TAC is a content website and is known for re-packing rumors as leads. Worth noting that the Journal ran a story asserting that travel demand is softening past July, leading to heavy discounting, etc. (WN's super low fare sale for its 50th anniversary, Disney offering discounts to targeted guests during the peak summer season for the first time in nearly two decades, etc.). Around the same time, TAC posted an analysis, expecting the fall travel season to smash records, which could lead to a record level of domestic traffic this year. Let's see who'll be right.

jbs2886 wrote:
Is DL looking for more beyond the 9(?) LATAM A350s and 29 739ERs?


I wouldn't expect DL to turn down a deal it couldn't refuse. However, it doesn't need more widebody capacity on order, so if it does pick up additional A330/A350, I wouldn't be surprised to see some incumbent orders pushed out further.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 5527
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:42 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
777Mech wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Folks, this is a used aircraft order thread. While new will compete, please take the discussion on possible new aircraft to another thread.


Thank you for the numbers. Delta did save on widebodies. I think we are approaching, but are not quite there, minimum widebody pricing (not yet, there needs to first be more of a recovery and also airlines to clear out their surplus, mostly by returning aircraft to the leasing companies).

I didn't see any update on the possible 739ER (used) order. Is there any new news?

Lightsaber

Late edit,
I found a site claiming the deals are done (I assume that means signed):
https://theaircurrent.com/three-points/ ... ion-alice/

I'm not familiar enough with that site to believe it or not. (e.g., ch-aviation calls out 5 of every 1 A220 order...)

I could only read the headline, but it looks like (among many other airlines) Lionair is struggling to meet their obligations. As stingy as DL is buying used, I bet some leasing companies come back with another offer for used 737NG. I'm not sure if just 737-900ER, or perhaps for a larger tranche of 737-800s?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-for-jets

Delta's mixed fleet strategy allows them to top off with.
1. New buys, I won't go into this, but I'm sure DL is being courted. I'm not sure if the offers are good enough, yet.
2. A320CEO and A321CEO with CFM engines
3. Used Pratt powered A321NEO (I doubt the offers are good enough, but I would expect some to ask DL).
4. Used 737-800/737-900ER
5. Used A350 and possibly even A330NEOs

I'd like to know who else is buying used A350. The winner's curse of an auction is knowing no one else will pay as much...

Lightsaber


Internal rumblings are that it is a done deal and has been for awhile yet. These aircraft are supposed to be on property and undergo conformity right at the 1st of the of the year.

As for further down the line for the fleet, I think they will be walking back the 717 retirement at least for a few years at least. They're replacement should be exercising the A220 options they currently hold.

The earnings call on the 14th should she'd some light on the direction they're going.


Is DL looking for more beyond the 9(?) LATAM A350s and 29 739ERs?


I guess I'll ask- wasn't there talk DL was looking at even more 757s before COVID? I'd imagine they could be had on the cheap at this point.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 891
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:11 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
I guess I'll ask- wasn't there talk DL was looking at even more 757s before COVID? I'd imagine they could be had on the cheap at this point.


I never heard that rumor and it’s not credible. Nearly every late model PW-powered B757 aircraft that hasn’t been converted into cargo is in DL’s fleet. The best option would be some UA aircraft that are 22-25yo, and that’s not going to happen.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4024
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:11 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
I guess I'll ask- wasn't there talk DL was looking at even more 757s before COVID? I'd imagine they could be had on the cheap at this point.


I never heard that rumor and it’s not credible. Nearly every late model PW-powered B757 aircraft that hasn’t been converted into cargo is in DL’s fleet. The best option would be some UA aircraft that are 22-25yo, and that’s not going to happen.


Yea I can’t see 757s. At most Condor 753s, but that’s stretching it just to find something that seems somewhat reasonable.
 
User avatar
Boeing757100
Posts: 978
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 10:09 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:48 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
I guess I'll ask- wasn't there talk DL was looking at even more 757s before COVID? I'd imagine they could be had on the cheap at this point.


I never heard that rumor and it’s not credible. Nearly every late model PW-powered B757 aircraft that hasn’t been converted into cargo is in DL’s fleet. The best option would be some UA aircraft that are 22-25yo, and that’s not going to happen.



Maybe the Uzbekistan ones, though I do not know if it is worth it for DL to buy a measly two frames.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9330
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:53 am

I am willing to put money on there being no more 757 acquisitions.
That window closed a few years back with the last of the ex Shanghai 75Gs.

The target now is going to be anything in the narrow body is 320/321 or 738/739.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1783
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:18 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Internal rumblings are that it is a done deal and has been for awhile yet. These aircraft are supposed to be on property and undergo conformity right at the 1st of the of the year.

As for further down the line for the fleet, I think they will be walking back the 717 retirement at least for a few years at least. They're replacement should be exercising the A220 options they currently hold.

The earnings call on the 14th should she'd some light on the direction they're going.


I read elsewhere that DL returned another 717 to Boeing recently (it may have already been parked), so the fleet will probably continue to shrink. I doubt DL will continue to operate what's basically a sub fleet for much longer.

jbs2886 wrote:
The Air Current is Jon Ostrower’s site and is very reputable.


I believe it's a done deal for DL because credible sources leaked some details of the order awhile ago. Jon Ostreower is a good journalist, but TAC is a content website and is known for re-packing rumors as leads. Worth noting that the Journal ran a story asserting that travel demand is softening past July, leading to heavy discounting, etc. (WN's super low fare sale for its 50th anniversary, Disney offering discounts to targeted guests during the peak summer season for the first time in nearly two decades, etc.). Around the same time, TAC posted an analysis, expecting the fall travel season to smash records, which could lead to a record level of domestic traffic this year. Let's see who'll be right.

jbs2886 wrote:
Is DL looking for more beyond the 9(?) LATAM A350s and 29 739ERs?


I wouldn't expect DL to turn down a deal it couldn't refuse. However, it doesn't need more widebody capacity on order, so if it does pick up additional A330/A350, I wouldn't be surprised to see some incumbent orders pushed out further.


DL has not returned any 717s to Boeing and all of the content on TAC is original reporting.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 891
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 6:58 am

sxf24 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Internal rumblings are that it is a done deal and has been for awhile yet. These aircraft are supposed to be on property and undergo conformity right at the 1st of the of the year.

As for further down the line for the fleet, I think they will be walking back the 717 retirement at least for a few years at least. They're replacement should be exercising the A220 options they currently hold.

The earnings call on the 14th should she'd some light on the direction they're going.


I read elsewhere that DL returned another 717 to Boeing recently (it may have already been parked), so the fleet will probably continue to shrink. I doubt DL will continue to operate what's basically a sub fleet for much longer.

jbs2886 wrote:
The Air Current is Jon Ostrower’s site and is very reputable.


I believe it's a done deal for DL because credible sources leaked some details of the order awhile ago. Jon Ostreower is a good journalist, but TAC is a content website and is known for re-packing rumors as leads. Worth noting that the Journal ran a story asserting that travel demand is softening past July, leading to heavy discounting, etc. (WN's super low fare sale for its 50th anniversary, Disney offering discounts to targeted guests during the peak summer season for the first time in nearly two decades, etc.). Around the same time, TAC posted an analysis, expecting the fall travel season to smash records, which could lead to a record level of domestic traffic this year. Let's see who'll be right.

jbs2886 wrote:
Is DL looking for more beyond the 9(?) LATAM A350s and 29 739ERs?


I wouldn't expect DL to turn down a deal it couldn't refuse. However, it doesn't need more widebody capacity on order, so if it does pick up additional A330/A350, I wouldn't be surprised to see some incumbent orders pushed out further.


DL has not returned any 717s to Boeing and all of the content on TAC is original reporting.


Yeah, we know, DL got desperate and has to overpay to renew the maturing 717 leases…
 
hannah9898
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:58 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 10:29 am

T773ER wrote:
Based on internal rumors and recent hints from the VP of Flight Operations, Delta could announce an aircraft order in the coming days for around 7 A350s and 27-30 used 737s.

If these are 737's. It would likely be a 738 from GA or MI?
 
hannah9898
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:58 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 10:30 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I am willing to put money on there being no more 757 acquisitions.
That window closed a few years back with the last of the ex Shanghai 75Gs.

The target now is going to be anything in the narrow body is 320/321 or 738/739.

738 will likely came from GA or MI in my opinion. Idk about A320/A321/B739 yet.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 1825
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:33 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

I read elsewhere that DL returned another 717 to Boeing recently (it may have already been parked), so the fleet will probably continue to shrink. I doubt DL will continue to operate what's basically a sub fleet for much longer.



I believe it's a done deal for DL because credible sources leaked some details of the order awhile ago. Jon Ostreower is a good journalist, but TAC is a content website and is known for re-packing rumors as leads. Worth noting that the Journal ran a story asserting that travel demand is softening past July, leading to heavy discounting, etc. (WN's super low fare sale for its 50th anniversary, Disney offering discounts to targeted guests during the peak summer season for the first time in nearly two decades, etc.). Around the same time, TAC posted an analysis, expecting the fall travel season to smash records, which could lead to a record level of domestic traffic this year. Let's see who'll be right.



I wouldn't expect DL to turn down a deal it couldn't refuse. However, it doesn't need more widebody capacity on order, so if it does pick up additional A330/A350, I wouldn't be surprised to see some incumbent orders pushed out further.


DL has not returned any 717s to Boeing and all of the content on TAC is original reporting.


Yeah, we know, DL got desperate and has to overpay to renew the maturing 717 leases…


Actually, not everyone knows. Please give more details.
 
User avatar
AirKevin
Posts: 1062
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:18 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:05 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
I guess I'll ask- wasn't there talk DL was looking at even more 757s before COVID? I'd imagine they could be had on the cheap at this point.


I never heard that rumor and it’s not credible. Nearly every late model PW-powered B757 aircraft that hasn’t been converted into cargo is in DL’s fleet. The best option would be some UA aircraft that are 22-25yo, and that’s not going to happen.


Yea I can’t see 757s. At most Condor 753s, but that’s stretching it just to find something that seems somewhat reasonable.

Not even that, as Condor doesn't use Pratt & Whitney engines on their 757s as far as I'm aware.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1783
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:32 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

I read elsewhere that DL returned another 717 to Boeing recently (it may have already been parked), so the fleet will probably continue to shrink. I doubt DL will continue to operate what's basically a sub fleet for much longer.



I believe it's a done deal for DL because credible sources leaked some details of the order awhile ago. Jon Ostreower is a good journalist, but TAC is a content website and is known for re-packing rumors as leads. Worth noting that the Journal ran a story asserting that travel demand is softening past July, leading to heavy discounting, etc. (WN's super low fare sale for its 50th anniversary, Disney offering discounts to targeted guests during the peak summer season for the first time in nearly two decades, etc.). Around the same time, TAC posted an analysis, expecting the fall travel season to smash records, which could lead to a record level of domestic traffic this year. Let's see who'll be right.



I wouldn't expect DL to turn down a deal it couldn't refuse. However, it doesn't need more widebody capacity on order, so if it does pick up additional A330/A350, I wouldn't be surprised to see some incumbent orders pushed out further.


DL has not returned any 717s to Boeing and all of the content on TAC is original reporting.


Yeah, we know, DL got desperate and has to overpay to renew the maturing 717 leases…


I never said anything about terms of lease extensions, because I don’t know. What I am confident about is the fact that DL has not returned a 717 to Boeing.

If you’d like to make any additional responses to me on this topic, I suggest you address this point rather than trying to attribute inflammatory and false statements to me.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 13107
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:35 pm

AirKevin wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

I never heard that rumor and it’s not credible. Nearly every late model PW-powered B757 aircraft that hasn’t been converted into cargo is in DL’s fleet. The best option would be some UA aircraft that are 22-25yo, and that’s not going to happen.


Yea I can’t see 757s. At most Condor 753s, but that’s stretching it just to find something that seems somewhat reasonable.

Not even that, as Condor doesn't use Pratt & Whitney engines on their 757s as far as I'm aware.

DL via NW has the only PW 753s made.
 
User avatar
AirKevin
Posts: 1062
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:18 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:40 pm

Polot wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Yea I can’t see 757s. At most Condor 753s, but that’s stretching it just to find something that seems somewhat reasonable.

Not even that, as Condor doesn't use Pratt & Whitney engines on their 757s as far as I'm aware.

DL via NW has the only PW 753s made.

That's what I thought.
 
User avatar
MetsNomad
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:30 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:09 pm

I also found a site that says the deals are done, and the used 739s are indeed coming from Lion Air.

According to the article:
Delta will receive the airframes from Castlelake, a global holding company, former owner and lessor of the airframes to Lion Air. These airframes have been grounded for some time due to the massive fall in travel demand in Indonesia along with a strong devaluation of its currency.

With this deal Delta will now become the world's largest 737-900ER operator with 159 airframes of the largest 737NG variety. Overpassing United and its 136 airframes.

The link (in Spanish)
https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/07/de ... -lion-air/
 
Cactusjuba
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:06 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:10 pm

+ 29 737-900ERs & + 7 350-900s. A little birdie told me the internal fleet summary doc have them included.
 
DTWLAX
Posts: 1253
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:19 pm

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 5:07 pm

If you want details and do not want to browse through 8 pages of this thread or do not have a subscription to the Air Current, here are some details from the Motley Fool that quotes the Air Current:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/ ... gn=article
 
LDRA
Posts: 480
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2016 3:01 am

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Sun Jul 11, 2021 5:16 pm

When can they put these 739er into service? Summer next year maybe? after full tear down and inspection

Probably faster into service than ordering new builds, and more flexible too, in case something happens and demand were to collapse again

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