Folks, this is a used aircraft order thread. While new will compete, please take the discussion on possible new aircraft to another thread.
Thank you for sharing.
Caution: some grossly speculative calculations ahead:
It would appear that Delta exited the LATAM 4 acquisition agreement just in time. By LATAM 4 I refer to the four A350s Delta agreed to buy direct from LATAM in their wide ranging agreement of 2019. I think the exit happened after the onset of the pandemic, so it is reasonable to assume that Delta expected used aircraft values to head south.
Using the widely acclaimed Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing threads started by forum member LAXIntl, I try below to estimate the "gain" Delta concocted for itself by exiting the 2019 agreement and negotiating a new deal with lessors (and perhaps LATAM itself) in 2021.
According to the spring 2019 thread, the A350-900 had a valuation range of USD109M to USD148M. The spring 2021 range for the same aircraft is USD77M to USD149M. Based on forum member timf's contribution above regarding tail numbers and related MSNs, it is fair to say that the LATAM 4 are towards the bottom end of the value range. Indeed, seven of the thirteen are from MSN 35 to MSN 79, four are between MSN 200 and MSN 300 and the remaining two are MSNs 313 and 363.
So I estimate that for LATAM 4 Delta saved USD128M less the USD62M penalty. So around USD66M.
By striking at the right time with the rumoured thirteen frames, Delta could save as much as USD480M.
Thank you for the numbers. Delta did save on widebodies. I think we are approaching, but are not quite there, minimum widebody pricing (not yet, there needs to first be more of a recovery and also airlines to clear out their surplus, mostly by returning aircraft to the leasing companies).
I didn't see any update on the possible 739ER (used) order. Is there any new news?
I found a site claiming the deals are done (I assume that means signed):https://theaircurrent.com/three-points/ ... ion-alice/
I'm not familiar enough with that site to believe it or not. (e.g., ch-aviation calls out 5 of every 1 A220 order...)
I could only read the headline, but it looks like (among many other airlines) Lionair is struggling to meet their obligations. As stingy as DL is buying used, I bet some leasing companies come back with another offer for used 737NG. I'm not sure if just 737-900ER, or perhaps for a larger tranche of 737-800s? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-for-jets
Delta's mixed fleet strategy allows them to top off with.
1. New buys, I won't go into this, but I'm sure DL is being courted. I'm not sure if the offers are good enough, yet.
2. A320CEO and A321CEO with CFM engines
3. Used Pratt powered A321NEO (I doubt the offers are good enough, but I would expect some to ask DL).
4. Used 737-800/737-900ER
5. Used A350 and possibly even A330NEOs
I'd like to know who else is buying used A350. The winner's curse of an auction is knowing no one else will pay as much...