MIflyer12 wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

There are radically different views of fewer-type cost savings, even within the U.S. industry:

DL, 898 mainline planes, 11 types (as of 12/31/2019)

WN, 736 mainline planes, 1 type (They paid ~$160 million up-front to make the 717s go away. Plus all the training costs, and markets they had to exit because 737-700s were too big.)

Maybe even more than parts inventories holding costs, I'll suggest that the bigger cost is fragmented pilot crews. Too many reserve planes (or an unreliable operation), and too many on reserve who routinely don't fly. DL just reported their weighted cost of capital (and now I can't find it.) From memory, 4.3 or 4.5%. That gives a financial holding cost of $45 million on $1 Billion in parts. $45 million a year really doesn't get you very many reserve pilots on mainline.

If WN has 1 plane type (737 in this case), then DL has 8 types (A220, A320Family, A330, A350, Boeing 717, 737, 757 and 767); not 11 types.

You cannot compare WN and DL: WN has a domestic network (international flights are a small part of WN and they are to neighboring countries) that relies on itself (no codeshare agreement or airline alliance), while DL has a worldwide network (onto other continents) and are one of the founders of SkyTeam. That's comparing apples to trucks...

Delta describes itself as having 13 'fleet families' in 2019, as recently as last month at the Bernstein investor conference.

https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... erence.pdf

No, it can't have a single type like WN given both intercon service and service to 50+ smaller domestic destinations that WN doesn't serve at all, but it declares that a reduction from 13 fleet families to nine in 2025 is a good strategic move. Really, DL has finally gotten on board with the concept of fleet simplification. Used A350s and 739ERs are an easy 'more of the same' fleet acquisition strategy.

List the 11 types they operate today (13 in 2019 - MD88 - MD90) for the sake of argument; I listed their current fleet and can only find 8.

Boof02671 wrote:

FluidFlow wrote:

Boof02671 wrote:

Looking at the 10 K for 2019 Delta owned expendable parts was $521,000,000 that’s not counting non-expendable part. Ie engines and other rotables. In 2020 that value was $355,000,000.

And there is no carve out of what they spent in buying new parts nor what they paid for repair and overhaul of said parts in the 2020 10k

What is the throughput of parts? The pure stock value is only half of the story, having 500m$ worth of parts stored is not a lot if they need 1b$ worth of parts a year for all the checks, repairs and overhauls. The real interesting thing is to know how long a part is actually in stock not how much value it has.

Also how is the actual ownership, is it actually on property or does Delta buy a part in January but only gets it delivered in October when they know it will be needed? It would be in the balance sheet but actually never physically on property until October when it will be used straight away.

Delta will know the cycles on certain part and when aircraft A needs a main wheel replacement in October Delta might buy that part in advance but will only get it shipped in actually in October. Why pay for storage when you can get it delivered JIT.

You didn’t read it what I wrote. That’s $500,000,000 in JUST EXPENDABLE parts. That doesn’t include engines, flight controls and other rotables.

$500 millions in parts stock doesn't mean anything if you rotate through that stock 4 or 5 times a year, compared to less than one. The bigger your operation, the bigger your stock; what matters is how much you rotate it in a 12-month period.

A posters question further up in the thread went unanswered, as it was buried in other commentary... I'll repeat it as I am interested in the answer as well.

When the Boeing Sky interior was launched, there were no previsions for retrofitting to already produced aircraft. Eventually that was loosened, where we saw airlines installing the bins, ceiling, seating etc... but not the new sculpted side panels with the larger window reveals. Even the BigBins were made available which allows carryons to be stored on edge.

My question is, are airlines like KLM who have retrofitted the Sky interior to some of the older fleet able to install the entire product? Will Delta retrofit thse used 737-900ER planes with a complete Sky Interior, side panels included?

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

My question is, are airlines like KLM who have retrofitted the Sky interior to some of the older fleet able to install the entire product? Will Delta retrofit thse used 737-900ER planes with a complete Sky Interior, side panels included?

Depending on which 739ERs from Lionair DL is getting they might already have the Sky Interior. The ones delivered from April 2011 on have it.

Polot wrote:

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

My question is, are airlines like KLM who have retrofitted the Sky interior to some of the older fleet able to install the entire product? Will Delta retrofit thse used 737-900ER planes with a complete Sky Interior, side panels included?

Depending on which 739ERs from Lionair DL is getting they might already have the Sky Interior. The ones delivered from April 2011 on have it.

Lion Air had 29 B739 that were owned by Castlelake, so DL is acquiring all of them. A quick Google search on sites that identify some of the aircrafts’ lessor shows that at least six of the aircraft were delivered in 2012.

I’m guessing there’s not much more to say about the actual order.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

Polot wrote:

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

My question is, are airlines like KLM who have retrofitted the Sky interior to some of the older fleet able to install the entire product? Will Delta retrofit thse used 737-900ER planes with a complete Sky Interior, side panels included?

Depending on which 739ERs from Lionair DL is getting they might already have the Sky Interior. The ones delivered from April 2011 on have it.

Lion Air had 29 B739 that were owned by Castlelake, so DL is acquiring all of them. A quick Google search on sites that identify some of the aircrafts’ lessor shows that at least six of the aircraft were delivered in 2012.

Upthread there was mention that Lion Air's final 739ER order was for 29 aircraft. It seems too coincidental that they ordered 29 aircraft, Castlelake owns 29 aircraft, and Delta is getting 29 aircraft. Is it safe to assume all of these are one in the same?

timf wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

Polot wrote:

Depending on which 739ERs from Lionair DL is getting they might already have the Sky Interior. The ones delivered from April 2011 on have it.

Lion Air had 29 B739 that were owned by Castlelake, so DL is acquiring all of them. A quick Google search on sites that identify some of the aircrafts’ lessor shows that at least six of the aircraft were delivered in 2012.

Upthread there was mention that Lion Air's final 739ER order was for 29 aircraft. It seems too coincidental that they ordered 29 aircraft, Castlelake owns 29 aircraft, and Delta is getting 29 aircraft. Is it safe to assume all of these are one in the same?

I'm thinking it is a coincidence. I didn't spend much time on it, but the six aircraft I could locate were delivered in 2012. And Lion Air took delivery of more than 29 aircraft from that point on through its most recent delivery in 2018. Lion Air financed its fleet primarily through sale-leasebacks. FlightGlobal noted earlier this year that the airline had more than 50 lessors for its fleet of 200+ aircraft.

timf wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

Polot wrote:

Depending on which 739ERs from Lionair DL is getting they might already have the Sky Interior. The ones delivered from April 2011 on have it.

Lion Air had 29 B739 that were owned by Castlelake, so DL is acquiring all of them. A quick Google search on sites that identify some of the aircrafts’ lessor shows that at least six of the aircraft were delivered in 2012.

Upthread there was mention that Lion Air's final 739ER order was for 29 aircraft. It seems too coincidental that they ordered 29 aircraft, Castlelake owns 29 aircraft, and Delta is getting 29 aircraft. Is it safe to assume all of these are one in the same?

From what leasing data I can find - Castlelake owns only 3 of the newest batch and five other lessors own part of the 29 Lionair ordered.

DL_Mech wrote:

LH707330 wrote:

How oddball are the B8F engines, do they have physical differences from the rest, or is it a thrust plug?

A lot of the components hung on the engine are different. DL sent these to GE Caledonian for overhaul for several years while having a CF6-80C2B6F overhaul shop in house.

In other words, the engine cannot be used on a -300ER.

Didn't know that, thanks for confirming!

WayexTDI wrote:

$500 millions in parts stock doesn't mean anything if you rotate through that stock 4 or 5 times a year, compared to less than one. The bigger your operation, the bigger your stock; what matters is how much you rotate it in a 12-month period.

I think we are missing a big point here: it looks like Delta could shut down its entire. experienced (so they are bound to be expensive) fleet planning department, and hire a parts clerk to streamline the whole operation.

What could be wrong with that?

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Uhh..... let balance the fanboyism with the fact that DL is still at about 70% of pre pandemic.

The narrative that There is bottomless demand to capture out there needs to stop

This we can agree with. Hence why I think DL will look for selected used aircraft. Now, new deal might happen, but the terms will have to be excellent.

Lightsaber

jordanh wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

$500 millions in parts stock doesn't mean anything if you rotate through that stock 4 or 5 times a year, compared to less than one. The bigger your operation, the bigger your stock; what matters is how much you rotate it in a 12-month period.

I think we are missing a big point here: it looks like Delta could shut down its entire. experienced (so they are bound to be expensive) fleet planning department, and hire a parts clerk to streamline the whole operation.

What could be wrong with that?

All the other parts of fleet cost he doesn't see and refuses to acknowledge exist

Many of these 20 B739 are likely from SL or OD or ID in my opinion.

lightsaber wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Uhh..... let balance the fanboyism with the fact that DL is still at about 70% of pre pandemic.

The narrative that There is bottomless demand to capture out there needs to stop

This we can agree with. Hence why I think DL will look for selected used aircraft. Now, new deal might happen, but the terms will have to be excellent.

Lightsaber

I wouldn't argue it's bottomless, but WN, AS, B6 and ULCCs have been gaining share for a decade. One can decide to add (domestic) capacity aggressively, as UA announced it's doing with United Next, or continue to lose share. It's not just destination set and/or airport pairs served, it's also frequency that brings business travelers to AA/DL/UA. Without that they're competing with carriers having a 20-40% lower cost basis, and there's nowhere near enough on-board product differentiation in coach (AA's 30" seat pitch is no better than Frontier's 30" seat pitch) to justify significantly higher avg fares.

Going back to the beginning, this looks like a quick and low CapEx way to replace some 777s and MD-90s. How they replace the 767s is a different question: 330neos may serve to replace seat capacity but they don't have enough on order to maintain pilot hours nor routes & frequencies. I don't want to go back to the bad old NW days where any European destination other than LON/AMS/FRA/CDG meant connecting in AMS. Double-connects are low-yield losers.

KMCOFlyer wrote:

audidudi wrote:

Anyone know how soon we'll find out which 29 ex-Lion Air B739ERs are the ones that DL has purchased?

I saw a rumor someone posted that it was going to be the 29 frames that Lion Air ordered in late 2011 alongside with their MAX order. The first of these 29 739s were delivered to LionAir in 2016 so these used airframes are all less than 5 years old.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2011-11-17 ... o-380-737s

First one expected to be an ex Malindo. Rest could be an ex SL and ID.

Don't these LionAir 739s have a door aft of the wing where as DL only has a plug?

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

A posters question further up in the thread went unanswered, as it was buried in other commentary... I'll repeat it as I am interested in the answer as well.

When the Boeing Sky interior was launched, there were no previsions for retrofitting to already produced aircraft. Eventually that was loosened, where we saw airlines installing the bins, ceiling, seating etc... but not the new sculpted side panels with the larger window reveals. Even the BigBins were made available which allows carryons to be stored on edge.

My question is, are airlines like KLM who have retrofitted the Sky interior to some of the older fleet able to install the entire product? Will Delta retrofit thse used 737-900ER planes with a complete Sky Interior, side panels included?

Considering Delta retrofitted 757s with what I call the "Sky Lite" interior with the same pivot bins and PSUs on 739ERs without the windows, I would bet on it since they have to get the seats taken care of anyway, can just pay for all adjustments at-once.

If the first aircraft is coming from the Malindo/OD fleet, having flown extensively on their 6 strong fleet of 739ER’s 9M-LNF/G/H/J/K and L, they definitely do have the BSI interior and are all ETOPS/EDTO rated. Only -LNF carried her life-rafts in the overhead bins whilst the remaining 5 have the rafts installed in the roof compartments.

rj777 wrote:

Don't these LionAir 739s have a door aft of the wing where as DL only has a plug?

Even when the door is plugged, the opening is still there. DL will just swap the door for a plug.

hannah9898 wrote:

KMCOFlyer wrote:

audidudi wrote:

Anyone know how soon we'll find out which 29 ex-Lion Air B739ERs are the ones that DL has purchased?

I saw a rumor someone posted that it was going to be the 29 frames that Lion Air ordered in late 2011 alongside with their MAX order. The first of these 29 739s were delivered to LionAir in 2016 so these used airframes are all less than 5 years old.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2011-11-17 ... o-380-737s

First one expected to be an ex Malindo. Rest could be an ex SL and ID.

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

HB-IWC wrote:

hannah9898 wrote:

KMCOFlyer wrote:

I saw a rumor someone posted that it was going to be the 29 frames that Lion Air ordered in late 2011 alongside with their MAX order. The first of these 29 739s were delivered to LionAir in 2016 so these used airframes are all less than 5 years old.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2011-11-17 ... o-380-737s

First one expected to be an ex Malindo. Rest could be an ex SL and ID.

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

FlightGlobal notes that Malindo has (had) 10 lessors for 20 jets. GECAS is the lessor on multiple aircraft, so I doubt Castlelake owned all 6 B739.

LionAir funded its fleet through perpetual sales-lease backs. It’s probable they owned 29 “random” B739*. But I don’t think we’ll be able to connect the dots to come up with a clean listing of 29 aircraft.

*if Cornado’s calculations are somewhat accurate, I would suspect that the aircraft would be later deliveries, as I don’t see DL paying that much for 15yo aircraft.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

HB-IWC wrote:

hannah9898 wrote:

First one expected to be an ex Malindo. Rest could be an ex SL and ID.

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

FlightGlobal notes that Malindo has (had) 10 lessors for 20 jets. GECAS is the lessor on multiple aircraft, so I doubt Castlelake owned all 6 B739.

LionAir funded its fleet through perpetual sales-lease backs. It’s probable they owned 29 “random” B739*. But I don’t think we’ll be able to connect the dots to come up with a clean listing of 29 aircraft.

*if Cornado’s calculations are somewhat accurate, I would suspect that the aircraft would be later deliveries, as I don’t see DL paying that much for 15yo aircraft.

Yep I doubt DL would want any 739s that are older than their original first deliveries in 2013.

KMCOFlyer wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

HB-IWC wrote:

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

FlightGlobal notes that Malindo has (had) 10 lessors for 20 jets. GECAS is the lessor on multiple aircraft, so I doubt Castlelake owned all 6 B739.

LionAir funded its fleet through perpetual sales-lease backs. It’s probable they owned 29 “random” B739*. But I don’t think we’ll be able to connect the dots to come up with a clean listing of 29 aircraft.

*if Cornado’s calculations are somewhat accurate, I would suspect that the aircraft would be later deliveries, as I don’t see DL paying that much for 15yo aircraft.

Yep I doubt DL would want any 739s that are older than their original first deliveries in 2013.

12 ex OD/ID B739 expected to be the first. 5 + 12 B739 currently flew by SL and JT could be the next one. Also, 12 B739 that I mention is 12 ex SL B739 currently leased to JT and 5 still active with SL. In total, 29 B739 are 2013 and 2016 made jets are likely going to Delta.

hannah9898 wrote:

KMCOFlyer wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

FlightGlobal notes that Malindo has (had) 10 lessors for 20 jets. GECAS is the lessor on multiple aircraft, so I doubt Castlelake owned all 6 B739.

LionAir funded its fleet through perpetual sales-lease backs. It’s probable they owned 29 “random” B739*. But I don’t think we’ll be able to connect the dots to come up with a clean listing of 29 aircraft.

*if Cornado’s calculations are somewhat accurate, I would suspect that the aircraft would be later deliveries, as I don’t see DL paying that much for 15yo aircraft.

Yep I doubt DL would want any 739s that are older than their original first deliveries in 2013.

12 ex OD/ID B739 expected to be the first. 5 + 12 B739 currently flew by SL and JT could be the next one. Also, 12 B739 that I mention is 12 ex SL B739 currently leased to JT and 5 still active with SL. In total, 29 B739 are 2013 and 2016 made jets are likely going to Delta.

Are you speculating or do you have a source?

The planes DL’s acquiring are owned by Castlelake. I did a quick Google search, and can locate eight aircraft in LionAir’s fleet that are listed as owned by Castlelake. All were built in 2012 and none are listed as parked per fleet trackers, but none have flown since late June/early July. The Airline Finance Journal reported that LionAir and Castlelake reached a deal last month to return all of the B739 owned by Castlelake. Thus, this may indicate that the aircraft parked recently are the ones sold to DL, but the deepening COVID crisis in the region could make that just a coincidence.

HB-IWC wrote:

hannah9898 wrote:

KMCOFlyer wrote:

I saw a rumor someone posted that it was going to be the 29 frames that Lion Air ordered in late 2011 alongside with their MAX order. The first of these 29 739s were delivered to LionAir in 2016 so these used airframes are all less than 5 years old.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2011-11-17 ... o-380-737s

First one expected to be an ex Malindo. Rest could be an ex SL and ID.

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

So this is the list of the 17 frames...

Thai Lion Air (5)
HS-LTH
HS-LTJ
HS-LTK
HS-LTL
HS-LTT

Batik Air (6)
PK-LBG
PK-LBH
PK-LBI
PK-LBJ
PK-LBM
PK-LBO

Malindo Air (6)
9M-LNF
9M-LNG
9M-LNH
9M-LNJ
9M-LNK
9M-LNL

The remaining 12 frames coming from Lion Air could be any of these 15...
PK-LPF
PK-LPH
PK-LPI
PK-LPW
PK-LPY
PK-LSG (ex HS-LTP)
PK-LSH (ex HS-LTY)
PK-LSJ (ex HS-LTQ)
PK-LSK (ex HS-LTR)
PK-LSL (ex HS-LTS)
PK-LSM (ex HS-LTU)
PK-LSO (ex HS-LTV)
PK-LSP (ex HS-LTW)
PK-LSQ (ex HS-LTO)
PK-LSR (ex HS-LTZ)

audidudi wrote:

HB-IWC wrote:

hannah9898 wrote:

First one expected to be an ex Malindo. Rest could be an ex SL and ID.

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

So this is the list of the 17 frames...

Thai Lion Air (5)
HS-LTH
HS-LTJ
HS-LTK
HS-LTL
HS-LTT

Batik Air (6)
PK-LBG
PK-LBH
PK-LBI
PK-LBJ
PK-LBM
PK-LBO

Malindo Air (6)
9M-LNF
9M-LNG
9M-LNH
9M-LNJ
9M-LNK
9M-LNL

The remaining 12 frames coming from Lion Air could be any of these 15...
PK-LPF
PK-LPH
PK-LPI
PK-LPW
PK-LPY
PK-LSG (ex HS-LTP)
PK-LSH (ex HS-LTY)
PK-LSJ (ex HS-LTQ)
PK-LSK (ex HS-LTR)
PK-LSL (ex HS-LTS)
PK-LSM (ex HS-LTU)
PK-LSO (ex HS-LTV)
PK-LSP (ex HS-LTW)
PK-LSQ (ex HS-LTO)
PK-LSR (ex HS-LTZ)

These PK-LS* + Batik/Malindo/Thai Lion jets are likely heading out of fleet and they are likely going to Delta. And I notice ID/OD B739 has IFE similar to DL's ones. So that's why I believe they are among those going to DL first.

Polot wrote:

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

My question is, are airlines like KLM who have retrofitted the Sky interior to some of the older fleet able to install the entire product? Will Delta retrofit thse used 737-900ER planes with a complete Sky Interior, side panels included?

Depending on which 739ERs from Lionair DL is getting they might already have the Sky Interior. The ones delivered from April 2011 on have it.

That one was not expected. I think the first one is the former Batik Air ones in my opinion.

hannah9898 wrote:

audidudi wrote:

HB-IWC wrote:

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

So this is the list of the 17 frames...

Thai Lion Air (5)
HS-LTH
HS-LTJ
HS-LTK
HS-LTL
HS-LTT

Batik Air (6)
PK-LBG
PK-LBH
PK-LBI
PK-LBJ
PK-LBM
PK-LBO

Malindo Air (6)
9M-LNF
9M-LNG
9M-LNH
9M-LNJ
9M-LNK
9M-LNL

The remaining 12 frames coming from Lion Air could be any of these 15...
PK-LPF
PK-LPH
PK-LPI
PK-LPW
PK-LPY
PK-LSG (ex HS-LTP)
PK-LSH (ex HS-LTY)
PK-LSJ (ex HS-LTQ)
PK-LSK (ex HS-LTR)
PK-LSL (ex HS-LTS)
PK-LSM (ex HS-LTU)
PK-LSO (ex HS-LTV)
PK-LSP (ex HS-LTW)
PK-LSQ (ex HS-LTO)
PK-LSR (ex HS-LTZ)

These PK-LS* + Batik/Malindo/Thai Lion jets are likely heading out of fleet and they are likely going to Delta. And I notice ID/OD B739 has IFE similar to DL's ones. So that's why I believe they are among those going to DL first.

DL isn’t getting the aircraft based on its IFE. That will be ripped out and new DL specs installed. Did you even confirm if any of these are owned by Castlelake entities?

alasizon wrote:

rj777 wrote:

Don't these LionAir 739s have a door aft of the wing where as DL only has a plug?

Even when the door is plugged, the opening is still there. DL will just swap the door for a plug.

The 'plug' is actually the deactivated door with a blank interior panel covering the opening.

That door is only intended for emergency egress just like the ones on the 767-400. It's a bottom hinge door that if active would have an auto deployed slide.

During the 739 C check we had to open it to inspect the hinge and the locks.

If Delta configured the aircraft in a higher density all coach config the doors would need to be activated to meet the evacuation requirements.

jbs2886 wrote:

Did you even confirm if any of these are owned by Castlelake entities?

I don't think it's a requirement that Castlelake owns the frames. They are a financier in addition to being a lessor.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 73277.html

My guess is Delta is buying the 29 frames from a myriad of lessors and they are borrowing the money from Castlelake.

dalmit wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Did you even confirm if any of these are owned by Castlelake entities?

I don't think it's a requirement that Castlelake owns the frames. They are a financier in addition to being a lessor.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 73277.html

My guess is Delta is buying the 29 frames from a myriad of lessors and they are borrowing the money from Castlelake.

That’s incorrect. Air Finance Journal reported back in June that Castlelake was in advance negotiations to sell the 29 B739 it owned (that were leased to Lion Air Group) to DL, rather to to accept the reduced payment terms that Lion Ai Group was offering.

A quick Google search yields an article that claims Lion Air had recently completed the sale-leaseback of 21 B739 to Castlelake (unfortunately, it’s not dated).

How will Lion Air replace the lost capacity of these 29 739'S? Lease Airbus or Boeing aircraft when additional capacity as needed when air travel picks up post Covid?

georgiabill wrote:

How will Lion Air replace the lost capacity of these 29 739'S? Lease Airbus or Boeing aircraft when additional capacity as needed when air travel picks up post Covid?

They operate in a region of the world that collectively has been losing money for years. Change was inevitable, COVID is the catalyst.

dalmit wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Did you even confirm if any of these are owned by Castlelake entities?

I don't think it's a requirement that Castlelake owns the frames. They are a financier in addition to being a lessor.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 73277.html

My guess is Delta is buying the 29 frames from a myriad of lessors and they are borrowing the money from Castlelake.

False. DL is only financing 2 purchases from Castlelake. Further if you read the PR it’s clear Castlelake entities own all 29 aircraft now.

georgiabill wrote:

How will Lion Air replace the lost capacity of these 29 739'S? Lease Airbus or Boeing aircraft when additional capacity as needed when air travel picks up post Covid?

Probably they will cease their Thai subsidiary after that.

georgiabill wrote:

How will Lion Air replace the lost capacity of these 29 739'S? Lease Airbus or Boeing aircraft when additional capacity as needed when air travel picks up post Covid?

They’ve got hundreds of MAX on order still that can replace lost capacity.

audidudi wrote:

HB-IWC wrote:

hannah9898 wrote:

First one expected to be an ex Malindo. Rest could be an ex SL and ID.

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

So this is the list of the 17 frames...

Thai Lion Air (5)
HS-LTH
HS-LTJ
HS-LTK
HS-LTL
HS-LTT

Batik Air (6)
PK-LBG
PK-LBH
PK-LBI
PK-LBJ
PK-LBM
PK-LBO

Malindo Air (6)
9M-LNF
9M-LNG
9M-LNH
9M-LNJ
9M-LNK
9M-LNL

The remaining 12 frames coming from Lion Air could be any of these 15...
PK-LPF
PK-LPH
PK-LPI
PK-LPW
PK-LPY
PK-LSG (ex HS-LTP)
PK-LSH (ex HS-LTY)
PK-LSJ (ex HS-LTQ)
PK-LSK (ex HS-LTR)
PK-LSL (ex HS-LTS)
PK-LSM (ex HS-LTU)
PK-LSO (ex HS-LTV)
PK-LSP (ex HS-LTW)
PK-LSQ (ex HS-LTO)
PK-LSR (ex HS-LTZ)

All are either 6, 7 or 8 years old. Delta will make these look brand new. Guaranteed passengers think the plane is straight from Boeing.

For those curious to see the -900ER aft wing exit in operation..

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/UGiabqoO6-Q

atlflyer wrote:

audidudi wrote:

HB-IWC wrote:

Malindo (OD) has 6 aircraft in the fleet, Batik (ID) also has 6, all 12 of these in a 2-class layout. Thai Lion (SL) has just 5 in a mono-class layout. That would account for 17 aircraft in total.

So this is the list of the 17 frames...

Thai Lion Air (5)
HS-LTH
HS-LTJ
HS-LTK
HS-LTL
HS-LTT

Batik Air (6)
PK-LBG
PK-LBH
PK-LBI
PK-LBJ
PK-LBM
PK-LBO

Malindo Air (6)
9M-LNF
9M-LNG
9M-LNH
9M-LNJ
9M-LNK
9M-LNL

The remaining 12 frames coming from Lion Air could be any of these 15...
PK-LPF
PK-LPH
PK-LPI
PK-LPW
PK-LPY
PK-LSG (ex HS-LTP)
PK-LSH (ex HS-LTY)
PK-LSJ (ex HS-LTQ)
PK-LSK (ex HS-LTR)
PK-LSL (ex HS-LTS)
PK-LSM (ex HS-LTU)
PK-LSO (ex HS-LTV)
PK-LSP (ex HS-LTW)
PK-LSQ (ex HS-LTO)
PK-LSR (ex HS-LTZ)

All are either 6, 7 or 8 years old. Delta will make these look brand new. Guaranteed passengers think the plane is straight from Boeing.

He’s guessing/speculating, those aren’t confirmed. While I don’t know the accuracy, fleet tracker websites list several of those aircraft as being owned by somebody else. And the AFJ implied that all of the Castlelake aircraft have been removed from service - several of those aircraft are still active.

FlightGlobal did identify two aircraft built in 2012 that’l love going to DL, and fleet trackers list at least six more 2012 aircraft as being owned by Castlelake.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

atlflyer wrote:

audidudi wrote:

So this is the list of the 17 frames...

Thai Lion Air (5)
HS-LTH
HS-LTJ
HS-LTK
HS-LTL
HS-LTT

Batik Air (6)
PK-LBG
PK-LBH
PK-LBI
PK-LBJ
PK-LBM
PK-LBO

Malindo Air (6)
9M-LNF
9M-LNG
9M-LNH
9M-LNJ
9M-LNK
9M-LNL

The remaining 12 frames coming from Lion Air could be any of these 15...
PK-LPF
PK-LPH
PK-LPI
PK-LPW
PK-LPY
PK-LSG (ex HS-LTP)
PK-LSH (ex HS-LTY)
PK-LSJ (ex HS-LTQ)
PK-LSK (ex HS-LTR)
PK-LSL (ex HS-LTS)
PK-LSM (ex HS-LTU)
PK-LSO (ex HS-LTV)
PK-LSP (ex HS-LTW)
PK-LSQ (ex HS-LTO)
PK-LSR (ex HS-LTZ)

All are either 6, 7 or 8 years old. Delta will make these look brand new. Guaranteed passengers think the plane is straight from Boeing.

He’s guessing/speculating, those aren’t confirmed. While I don’t know the accuracy, fleet tracker websites list several of those aircraft as being owned by somebody else. And the AFJ implied that all of the Castlelake aircraft have been removed from service - several of those aircraft are still active.

FlightGlobal did identify two aircraft built in 2012 that’l love going to DL, and fleet trackers list at least six more 2012 aircraft as being owned by Castlelake.

PK-LJG, LJJ, LJK, LJL, LJP, LKF are the only 6 build in 2012.that I can see.

Dalmd88 wrote:

alasizon wrote:

rj777 wrote:

Don't these LionAir 739s have a door aft of the wing where as DL only has a plug?

Even when the door is plugged, the opening is still there. DL will just swap the door for a plug.

The 'plug' is actually the deactivated door with a blank interior panel covering the opening.

That door is only intended for emergency egress just like the ones on the 767-400. It's a bottom hinge door that if active would have an auto deployed slide.

During the 739 C check we had to open it to inspect the hinge and the locks.

If Delta configured the aircraft in a higher density all coach config the doors would need to be activated to meet the evacuation requirements.

Apologies but that’s not strictly true. The ‘plug’ is physically different to the activated door. The actual door has a small service window located at the top of the door, whereas the ‘plug’ looks like a standard cabin window.

Compare these two aircraft:

jbs2886 wrote:

georgiabill wrote:

How will Lion Air replace the lost capacity of these 29 739'S? Lease Airbus or Boeing aircraft when additional capacity as needed when air travel picks up post Covid?

They’ve got hundreds of MAX on order still that can replace lost capacity.

I would go so far as to say new aircraft will over-supply the market for years. Boeing and Airbus negotiating in an incredibly low interest rate environment means new aircraft will force down the price of old. Since leasing companies receive negative interest loans to keep people working, the old aircraft will be leased at a forward loss for some cash or sold at a loss (I speculate most financial companies will prefer the former), but overall still healthy leasing companies thanks to negative rates.


So LionAir will receive new MAXes as will others. I suspect DL will order new, but mostly poach in good size batches used narrowbodies of types they already fly or have on order (including same engines).

I posted upstream how Allegiant receives many offers. I suspect DL receives more due to greater fleet variety. I doubt this is the last used transaction DL closes in the next 18 months.

Lightsaber

SXDFC wrote:

For those curious to see the -900ER aft wing exit in operation..

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/UGiabqoO6-Q

Don’t forget to grab your beer on the way down.

lightsaber wrote:

I posted upstream how Allegiant receives many offers. I suspect DL receives more due to greater fleet variety. I doubt this is the last used transaction DL closes in the next 18 months.

DL's 10Q notes that deliveries of the used aircraft will commence later this year, and be completed by early next year -- and the aircraft will gradually enter service through summer 2023. DL's also taking delivery of a lot of capacity next year -- 11 A220, at least 18 A321 NEO (that number will grow higher -- allegedly, the 25 NEO it ordered this year will be delivered in 2022 & 2023) and 13 A339 / A359. Ultimately, DL may take delivery of more aircraft than it did in 2019 (its previous high). And in 2019, DL wasn't able to train (move) pilots fast enough, which yielded more aircraft than it needed (which created a historically high amount of slack, and was why the MD-88 were - even pre-COVID - scheduled to exit the fleet in bulk, long after their replacements were on property).

Plenty of capacity is coming; I doubt DL will be very active within the used market, unless it gets a deal it can't refuse. One thing that should be considered, is that until RASM recovers, we're not likely to see long, thin domestic routes return like DTW-SJC, or SLC-CLE or ATL-LGB. These routes are aircraft intensive; the number of alternate short/medium-haul flights these aircraft could operate adds up. And, of course, who knows what recovery will look like in a year from now -- we always knew it'd be "easy" to get to a certain point, but much more difficult to cross the finish line. All domestic airlines will want to maintain their market share, but if they endure heavy losses this winter, it will be an inherent factor.

Another point: DL's adding 20 A339 / A359 next year, when long-haul markets will still largely be crippled. If domestic travel swells, that gives DL plenty of additional capacity to pump into the system...

WidebodyPTV wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I posted upstream how Allegiant receives many offers. I suspect DL receives more due to greater fleet variety. I doubt this is the last used transaction DL closes in the next 18 months.

DL's 10Q notes that deliveries of the used aircraft will commence later this year, and be completed by early next year -- and the aircraft will gradually enter service through summer 2023. DL's also taking delivery of a lot of capacity next year -- 11 A220, at least 18 A321 NEO (that number will grow higher -- allegedly, the 25 NEO it ordered this year will be delivered in 2022 & 2023) and 13 A339 / A359. Ultimately, DL may take delivery of more aircraft than it did in 2019 (its previous high). And in 2019, DL wasn't able to train (move) pilots fast enough, which yielded more aircraft than it needed (which created a historically high amount of slack, and was why the MD-88 were - even pre-COVID - scheduled to exit the fleet in bulk, long after their replacements were on property).

Plenty of capacity is coming; I doubt DL will be very active within the used market, unless it gets a deal it can't refuse. One thing that should be considered, is that until RASM recovers, we're not likely to see long, thin domestic routes return like DTW-SJC, or SLC-CLE or ATL-LGB. These routes are aircraft intensive; the number of alternate short/medium-haul flights these aircraft could operate adds up. And, of course, who knows what recovery will look like in a year from now -- we always knew it'd be "easy" to get to a certain point, but much more difficult to cross the finish line. All domestic airlines will want to maintain their market share, but if they endure heavy losses this winter, it will be an inherent factor.

Another point: DL's adding 20 A339 / A359 next year, when long-haul markets will still largely be crippled. If domestic travel swells, that gives DL plenty of additional capacity to pump into the system...

If you are saying DL will keep the powder dry until exceptional deals present themselves, I agree.

You also note timelines for the existing deals to be executed. I would expect a time delay before DL accepted any more orders.

I just think DL is managed well enough that they will see opportunity for select aircraft over the next 18 months to sign more deals. If you say you expect few if any deals in 2021, unless at insanely low pricing, I agree. Hence 18 month timeline.


Lightsaber

VictorKilo wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

DL's 10Q notes that deliveries of the used aircraft will commence later this year, and be completed by early next year -- and the aircraft will gradually enter service through summer 2023. DL's also taking delivery of a lot of capacity next year -- 11 A220, at least 18 A321 NEO (that number will grow higher -- allegedly, the 25 NEO it ordered this year will be delivered in 2022 & 2023) and 13 A339 / A359. Ultimately, DL may take delivery of more aircraft than it did in 2019 (its previous high). And in 2019, DL wasn't able to train (move) pilots fast enough, which yielded more aircraft than it needed (which created a historically high amount of slack, and was why the MD-88 were - even pre-COVID - scheduled to exit the fleet in bulk, long after their replacements were on property).

Plenty of capacity is coming; I doubt DL will be very active within the used market, unless it gets a deal it can't refuse. One thing that should be considered, is that until RASM recovers, we're not likely to see long, thin domestic routes return like DTW-SJC, or SLC-CLE or ATL-LGB. These routes are aircraft intensive; the number of alternate short/medium-haul flights these aircraft could operate adds up. And, of course, who knows what recovery will look like in a year from now -- we always knew it'd be "easy" to get to a certain point, but much more difficult to cross the finish line. All domestic airlines will want to maintain their market share, but if they endure heavy losses this winter, it will be an inherent factor.

Another point: DL's adding 20 A339 / A359 next year, when long-haul markets will still largely be crippled. If domestic travel swells, that gives DL plenty of additional capacity to pump into the system...

If you are saying DL will keep the powder dry until exceptional deals present themselves, I agree.

You also note timelines for the existing deals to be executed. I would expect a time delay before DL accepted any more orders.

I just think DL is managed well enough that they will see opportunity for select aircraft over the next 18 months to sign more deals. If you say you expect few if any deals in 2021, unless at insanely low pricing, I agree. Hence 18 month timeline.


Lightsaber

Building upon all of that:

Given that Allegiant is also in the market for CFM powered A320 frames, I would not expect Delta to outbid Allegiant, and would pass on the 320.

Given the sheer volume of widebodies entering service next year for Delta, I would not expect Delta to take on any additional widebodies in 2022. Given that intercontinental demand has not returned as much as domestic and intracontinental demand, I would expect that Delta would still be in a position to have multiple strong value opportunities to add to its widebody fleet in 18-24 months and doesn't need to move now.

I would expect that, if Delta does any deals, they would be at much smaller magnitudes than the 29 frame 739 deal. As an example, there are three CFM-powered A321 frames formerly with Interjet that are stored in CNO and are of similar vintage as the main Delta fleet, and a few 738 available that formerly served with the various airlines of Norwegian on the market. That doesn't count other off-lease frames entering the market, frames entering from restructuring of airlines (maybe even more 739 or some 738 from the various LionAir groups or maybe getting the Korean 739 as they consolidate their fleet with Asiana), frames with leases extended to cover for MAX capacity that are no longer needed, etc. Lots of possibilities.

DL mentioned in its 10-K the used aircraft will be put in service through 2023. Does anyone know if this are the A350s and/or the 739s? My guess is the widebodies just due to the number of widebodies being delivered in 2022.

I only see more widebodies in the event its coupled with sales of fresher 763s for conversion (although my avgeek side wishes more in general). Narrowbodies, no idea. I see reasonable arguments that DL doesn't need more, but also reasonable arguments DL could acquire some incremental aircaft.

The first 739 due for DL, 9M-LNL exited the Malindo fleet today arriving in HNL from KUL via GUM.

asuflyer wrote:

The first 739 due for DL, 9M-LNL exited the Malindo fleet today arriving in HNL from KUL via GUM.

Next one I expect is ex:

Batik PK-LBG, LBH, LBI, LBJ, LBM, LBO
Malindo 9M-LNF-LNK
Thai Lion: HS-LTH-LTZ (10 or 12 still leased to JT ahead of Delta acquired)

Notes: All were manufatured between 2013 and 2016 jets and leasing will expired the date it was delivered. This is probably because JT is reducing network in Thailand while Batik is transition to all Airbus fleet in 2022 or 2023 - so I bet OD will re-delivered all 738 from ID and replace the 739.