Yep....DL has more than enough aircraft to run their current projected capacity at least until March at this point. No urgency to get any of these frames into service until summer 2022

Have you got a calc of the the systemwide ASMs DL is scheduled to fly in, say, May 2022 vs. May 2019?

Boof02671 wrote:

Interesting they use VP registering then in the Virgin Islands for their ferry flights.

I suspect that the registration was done by the owner/lessor of the aircraft as they were repossessed.

MIflyer12 wrote:

Have you got a calc of the the systemwide ASMs DL is scheduled to fly in, say, May 2022 vs. May 2019?

CF recently shared that DL would operate less capacity in September, October and November than it did in 2020 (!!). My crystal ball isn’t working at the moment, but I’d bet the only way they’d match 2019 capacity come May, is if they’re running a large number of domestic widebodies.

flee wrote:

Boof02671 wrote:

Interesting they use VP registering then in the Virgin Islands for their ferry flights.

I suspect that the registration was done by the owner/lessor of the aircraft as they were repossessed.

They are not repossessed. There is a huge difference between repo and lease return.

FlyingMSY wrote:

DL757NYC wrote:

B757Forever wrote:

Delta 757 ship 691 was built for Shanghai but not delivered. It had placards in both English and Mandarin until it was reworked.

I remember that plane it has signs in another language. The deals I remember most were the ex TW birds they bought and the Shanghai birds

There's also ex-Singapore Airlines 757s (although by now they've been retired as well... N750, 51, 52, and 57AT respectively.) But other than those and one lone AM example, there aren't any other foreign 757s that were in DL's service.

I remember those Singapore birds. They had ash trays on the door to the lava. What was the deal with the ex AM 757 it was a low cycle aircraft. How many is AM have?

The first 737, N949DK, was handed over to DL yesterday (Wednesday).

DL757NYC wrote:

FlyingMSY wrote:

DL757NYC wrote:

I remember that plane it has signs in another language. The deals I remember most were the ex TW birds they bought and the Shanghai birds

There's also ex-Singapore Airlines 757s (although by now they've been retired as well... N750, 51, 52, and 57AT respectively.) But other than those and one lone AM example, there aren't any other foreign 757s that were in DL's service.

I remember those Singapore birds. They had ash trays on the door to the lava. What was the deal with the ex AM 757 it was a low cycle aircraft. How many is AM have?

The lone AM aircraft at Delta is N624AG, former N801AM of Aero Mexico. It had several operators between AM and DL. While operating for Sun Express, it visited Delta TechOps and had both engines removed and sent to Delta's engine shop for refresh. Once N624AG was returned to the leasing company from it's last operator, DL sought to lease the engines from it. DL essentially leased the aircraft for the cost of the engine leases. The airframe had relatively low hours/cycles, was in remarkable condition and already had winglets. It was flown to ATL for a heavy check and a cabin refit. It became DL ship 6818.

From the Southern Cal thread


Ex LATAM A350-900 F-WJKI (ex PR-XTH) flying LDE-VCV as AIB20CV prior to transfer to Delta.
https://www.radarbox.com/data/registration/F-WJKI

Pre-loved B737-9GP/ER Fleet Updates as of September 11, 2021:

Previous Reg No. / MSN / Line No./ Exit Date from Lion Air Group / Current Registration
1. 9M-LNH 38732 / 4484 19 May 2021 VP-CFU Castlelake
2. 9M-LNJ 38690 / 4495 14 May 2021 VP-CFD Castlelake
3. 9M-LNK 38737 / 4600 29 Jun 2021 N950DA Delta Air Lines
4. 9M-LNL 38736 / 4592 28 Jun 2021 N949DK Delta Air Lines
5. HS-LTH 38739 / 4657 12 Jul 2021 VP-CFX Castlelake
6. HS-LTJ 39823 / 5070 12 Jul 2021 VP-CIK Castlelake
7. HS-LTK 38304 / 5162 13 Jul 2021 VP-CEL Castlelake
8. HS-LTL 38748 / 4822 11 Jul 2021 VP-CIE Castlelake

21 more to go.

Source: airfleets.net

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:

Pre-loved B737-9GP/ER Fleet Updates as of September 11, 2021:

Previous Reg No. / MSN / Line No./ Exit Date from Lion Air Group / Current Registration
1. 9M-LNH 38732 / 4484 19 May 2021 VP-CFU Castlelake
2. 9M-LNJ 38690 / 4495 14 May 2021 VP-CFD Castlelake
3. 9M-LNK 38737 / 4600 29 June 2021 N950DA Delta Air Lines
4. 9M-LNL 38736 / 4592 28 June 2021 N949DK Delta Air Lines
5. HS-LTH 38739 / 4657 12 July 2021 VP-CFX Castlelake
6. HS-LTJ 39823 / 5070 12 July 2021 VP-CIK Castlelake
7. HS-LTK 38304 / 5162 13 July 2021 VP-CEL Castlelake
8. HS-LTL 38748 / 4822 11 July 2021 VP-CIE Castlelake

21 more to go.

Source: airfleets.net

1. 9M-LNH 38732 / 4484 19 May 2021 VP-CFU Castlelake...will become N948DJ
2. 9M-LNJ 38690 / 4495 14 May 2021 VP-CFD Castlelake...will become N943DB
5. HS-LTH 38739 / 4657 12 July 2021 VP-CFX Castlelake ...will become N951DA

Missing are:
PK-LJT 38720 / 4056 25 Aug 2021 Castlelake...will become N944DR
PK-LKO 38684 / 4266 29 June 2021 Castlelake...will become N939DG
PK-xxx xxxxx / xxxx xx xxxx xxxx Castlelake...will become Nxxxxx https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VPCEP

Latest ex-LATAM A359s movements...(courtesy of skyliner-aviation.net):

Airbus A350-941 48 PR-XTE Latam Brasil ferried 10 Sept 2021 GRU-VCV, for Delta Air Lines, ex A7-AMC
Airbus A350-941 200 PR-XTH/F-WJKI Airbus (AerCap) ferried 10 Sept 2021 LDE-VCV, Latam c/s, for Delta Air Lines, ex F-WZFB

audidudi wrote:

Latest ex-LATAM A359s movements...(courtesy of skyliner-aviation.net):

Airbus A350-941 48 PR-XTE Latam Brasil ferried 10 Sept 2021 GRU-VCV, for Delta Air Lines, ex A7-AMC
Airbus A350-941 200 PR-XTH/F-WJKI Airbus (AerCap) ferried 10 Sept 2021 LDE-VCV, Latam c/s, for Delta Air Lines, ex F-WZFB

Already posted about F-WJKI

Here's the latest list of ex Lion Air/ Malindo Air/ Thai Lion Air frames as of 08 Sept 2021...all are currently stored at SBD:

N936DU Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex HS-LTK (Thai Lion Air) regd 07 Sept 2021 Castlelake
N939DG Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex PK-LKO (Lion Air) regd 25 Aug 2021 Castlelake
N943DB Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex 9M-LNJ (Malindo Air) regd 23 Aug 2021 Castlelake
N944DR Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex PK-LJT (Lion Air) regd 25 Aug 2021 Castlelake
N948DJ Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex 9M-LNH (Malindo Air) regd 23 Aug 2021 Castlelake
N949DK Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex 9M-LNL (Malindo Air) regd 27 July 2021 Castlelake
N950DA Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex 9M-LNK (Malindo Air) regd 29 July 2021 Castlelake
N951DA Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex HS-LTH (Thai Lion Air) regd 23 Aug 2021 Castlelake
N955DE Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex HS-LTL (Thai Lion Air) regd 07 Sept 2021 Castlelake
N956DD Boeing 737-9GPER(WL) ex HS-LTJ (Thai Lion Air) regd 08 Sept 2021 Castlelake

Missing from this list is this frame as it hasn't been positively identified yet...it's possibly another ex Lion Air PK-xxx:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VPCEP

And another unidentified ex Lion Air frame, VP-CEH, is ferrying 14-16 Sept 2021 from CGK-GUM-HNL-SBD, ex PK- ?
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VPCEH

Another currently unidentified ex LionAir/Malindo Air/Thai LionAir B739ER, VP-CEQ, is ferrying 15-17 Sept 2021 from CGK>GUM>HNL>SBD:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VPCEQ

According to skyliner-aviation.de, VP-CEH and VP-CEQ have been identified:
Boeing 737-9GPER 37291 3966 VP-CEH Castlelake ferried 14-16 Sept 2021 CGK-GUM-HNL-SBD, for Delta Air Lines, ex PK-LJP
Boeing 737-9GPER 38315 3954 VP-CEQ Castlelake ferried 15-17 Sept 2021 CGK-GUM-HNL-SBD, for Delta Air Lines, ex PK-LJO

38313 / 3936 (ex PK-LJM) has been registered as N937DM. This is likely the third unidentified aircraft VP-CEP.

Looks like Delta will also get a ex South africa airways a350 ( msn245 )
https://www.airfleets.net/ficheapp/plane-a350-245.htm

tvh wrote:

Looks like Delta will also get a ex South africa airways a350 ( msn245 )
https://www.airfleets.net/ficheapp/plane-a350-245.htm

And will become the first, and only thus far, A350 to have its third livery in 3 years...Hainan, South African and Delta!

audidudi wrote:

tvh wrote:

Looks like Delta will also get a ex South africa airways a350 ( msn245 )
https://www.airfleets.net/ficheapp/plane-a350-245.htm

And will become the first, and only thus far, A350 to have its third livery in 3 years...Hainan, South African and Delta!

Anyone know where this bird is stored?

777Mech wrote:

audidudi wrote:

tvh wrote:

Looks like Delta will also get a ex South africa airways a350 ( msn245 )
https://www.airfleets.net/ficheapp/plane-a350-245.htm

And will become the first, and only thus far, A350 to have its third livery in 3 years...Hainan, South African and Delta!

Anyone know where this bird is stored?

Last reported at TEV (Teruel, Spain). https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ZSSDD

audidudi wrote:

Last reported at TEV (Teruel, Spain). https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ZSSDD

And here is a picture of her from v1images. com - https://www.v1images.com/product/south- ... 41-zs-sdd/

I see where the lessor (Avolon) has this one and another one (formerly ZS-SDC). Both are post Line Number 219 aka 280t.

I guess DL is liking the A359, huh?

guess this must be the finishing touches for the 767-300er retierment

audidudi wrote:

tvh wrote:

Looks like Delta will also get a ex South africa airways a350 ( msn245 )
https://www.airfleets.net/ficheapp/plane-a350-245.htm

And will become the first, and only thus far, A350 to have its third livery in 3 years...Hainan, South African and Delta!

The first paint on this bird was ( tail and winglets ) for Tianjin Airlines if that counts ?
https://www.flickr.com/photos/aircrafts/27942656337/

So first build for Latam leased to Hainan than to SAA and now to Delta. Wow what a history !

Will DL be first revenue service?

Interesting on so many levels.

I wonder what their projections are for international premium travel recovery? I thought it was going to take years to recover....?

And then there is the fact that they are buying used widebodies. Although Richard bought some, I recall him saying in interviews that the economics for used widebodies was much different than for narrowbodies, and thus he preferred new widebodies. But perhaps the projected traffic recovery is SO low amd there are so many available that this is true bargain basement pricing which they just can't disregard.

And then there is the turnabout at Airbus. It seems like "4 engines 4 the long haul" was just yesterday And now they have the world's most efficient large twin (at least that's their marketing hype).

Finally, as others have said, I'm sure the RR/Techops agreement is playing a huge part in thes A350 acquisitions.

jbs2886 wrote:

SteelChair wrote:

Interesting on so many levels.

I wonder what their projections are for international premium travel recovery? I thought it was going to take years to recover....?

And then there is the fact that they are buying used widebodies. Although Richard bought some, I recall him saying in interviews that the economics for used widebodies was much different than for narrowbodies, and thus he preferred new widebodies. But perhaps the projected traffic recovery is SO low amd there are so many available that this is true bargain basement pricing which they just can't disregard.

And then there is the turnabout at Airbus. It seems like "4 engines 4 the long haul" was just yesterday And now they have the world's most efficient large twin (at least that's their marketing hype).

Finally, as others have said, I'm sure the RR/Techops agreement is playing a huge part in thes A350 acquisitions.

My guess is the calculations aren't simple, but can be summarized in a few points: (1) acquisition cost is very low and the lessors would much rather lease to DL for maybe less than to many (most?) other carriers that are higher risk, (2) DL anticipates either a solid recovery and/or anticipates capturing some market share, (3) DL's competitors are increasingly operating ULHish (e.g., India, Singapore, etc.) and the A350 is the only capable aircraft DL currently has in the fleet or planned, (4) DL is hedging that it can offload 767-300ERs pretty quickly to the cargo market or use as flex capacity domestically if the second point doesn't work out. I'd also note that DL competitively may need the new A350 to "flex up" competitively as UA and AA have significant widebody deliveries/existing aircraft parked to reactivate (recognizing the UA 777 PW issue); DL retired a fair amount and has reactivated all/almost all with a smaller amount (though still decent) new deliveries.

Certainly true for UA, but DL actually now has a larger widebody fleet than AA and no significant difference in future widebody commitments. DL and AA will absolutely be at a disadvantage to UA if international travel demand returns quickly.

Jeremy

jbs2886 wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Edit, per AA's latest 10-Q 787 deliveries: 2021 - 11; 2022 - 2; 2023 - 11 https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... 4930837146

Given Boeing’s 787 delivery issues I assume AA 11 787s this year will be mostly bumped into 2022?

DL's approach to enlarging their fleet seems to be to buy as many used aircraft as possible, fix them up and then buy only what they have to buy from the manufacturers. This isn't a bad idea, because it saves them a ton of money. They profited by leasing used 717s from WN who wanted to dump the aircraft, which gave them the right airframes for secondary markets that needed smaller aircraft. Buying used also gets Delta aircraft more quickly than if they wait for a brand new order. This approach tends to age the fleet more quickly, but that happens over a number of years. Most passengers never notice the difference. They do notice, however, that many of DL's international aircraft are aging, and however much some people like the 2-3-2 seating on the 767, many prefer the seemingly newer 777s flown by foreign carriers, especially in business. Those passengers will likely appreciate the new A350s.

dalmit wrote:

audidudi wrote:

Last reported at TEV (Teruel, Spain). https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ZSSDD

And here is a picture of her from v1images. com - https://www.v1images.com/product/south- ... 41-zs-sdd/

I see where the lessor (Avolon) has this one and another one (formerly ZS-SDC). Both are post Line Number 219 aka 280t.

Maybe I’m reading too much into this news, but to me the plot is thickening. The DL press release clearly states the 7 we’re coming from AerCap (https://news.delta.com/delta-add-airbus ... d-recovery) so is this Avalon bird in addition to the 7 (there were other rumors more could come), or is this a replacement? Time will tell I suppose.

FlyHPN wrote:

dalmit wrote:

audidudi wrote:

Last reported at TEV (Teruel, Spain). https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ZSSDD

And here is a picture of her from v1images. com - https://www.v1images.com/product/south- ... 41-zs-sdd/

I see where the lessor (Avolon) has this one and another one (formerly ZS-SDC). Both are post Line Number 219 aka 280t.

Maybe I’m reading too much into this news, but to me the plot is thickening. The DL press release clearly states the 7 we’re coming from AerCap (https://news.delta.com/delta-add-airbus ... d-recovery) so is this Avalon bird in addition to the 7 (there were other rumors more could come), or is this a replacement? Time will tell I suppose.

I'm still not sure who the original source was that claimed this plane is going to Delta. Airfleets can speculate however they want, but I wouldn't call it definite proof.

usdcaguy wrote:

DL's approach to enlarging their fleet seems to be to buy as many used aircraft as possible, fix them up and then buy only what they have to buy from the manufacturers. This isn't a bad idea, because it saves them a ton of money. They profited by leasing used 717s from WN who wanted to dump the aircraft, which gave them the right airframes for secondary markets that needed smaller aircraft. Buying used also gets Delta aircraft more quickly than if they wait for a brand new order. This approach tends to age the fleet more quickly, but that happens over a number of years. Most passengers never notice the difference. They do notice, however, that many of DL's international aircraft are aging, and however much some people like the 2-3-2 seating on the 767, many prefer the seemingly newer 777s flown by foreign carriers, especially in business. Those passengers will likely appreciate the new A350s.

Delta, in my opinion, during normal times, has 3 narrowbody fleets.
1. Fleet of highly utilized. This was in the past 739 and reason behind A321NEO.
2. A mid utilization fleet that Delta tends to but used, but for the right price will buy new. e.g., A220.
3. A low utilization fleet that is hand me down aircraft or used. The 717 is the poster child of these purchases, but also the long time utilization of DC-9s and MD-80s and a fine use of older A320s, for example.

There is not consistent demand every day of the week nor every season. (See Allegiant business model). I recommend the December 2019 management presentation.
https://ir.allegiantair.com/presentations

You might note: but that isn't Delta. True. But they operate some fraction of the fleet low utilization. That is what they buy used. The 739s can be used in all three cases until enough A321NEOs ate in the fleet. The high utilization portion is why we speculate on some MAX orders.

Thanks to TechOps, DL manages the maintenance variable cost well. But new is lower cost in high utilization. A network airline sees all aspects of low utilization (this is the Breeze model too, once they have new aircraft, start low utilization and then with efficient, more frequency):
https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/02/10/dav ... ect-plans/

Delta's aircraft purchases are well thought out. In this case, there are not many potential 739ER or A350 buyers today. So delta probably received excellent deals in an overall weak market:
viewtopic.php?t=1460947

I personally expect one large new order from Delta for the high utilization fleet. That is betting on a recovery. We have another thread for that discussion:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1465113

I do expect DL to opportunistically continue buying used. But a mix of new and used for reducing fuel and maintenance costs.

Lightsaber

[quote="SteelChair"

And then there is the turnabout at Airbus. It seems like "4 engines 4 the long haul" was just yesterday And now they have the world's most efficient large twin (at least that's their marketing hype).[/quote]

But that was a marketing slogan for Virgin Atlantic......not Airbus.

SESGDL wrote:

DL and AA will absolutely be at a disadvantage to UA if international travel demand returns quickly.

Maybe DL's international widebody fleet should be smaller than UA's because of its route structure?

For instance UA flies online via SFO to many points in Asia-Pacific that wouldn't/didn't work for DL from SEA. Now DL serves them via a partner (KE/ICN) with whom it must split the transpac flying.

Vicenza wrote:

But that was a marketing slogan for Virgin Atlantic......not Airbus.

It was originally an Airbus slogan: https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/ ... -ad/153735

Airbus quickly dropped it after it pissed off everyone- Boeing for obvious reasons, Airlines for implying their 2 engine aircraft were unsafe, Engine OEMs for implying that their engines on twin engine aircraft are unsafe, others within Airbus for implying A330 was unsafe.

VS co-opted it after Airbus dropped it.

n9801f wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

DL and AA will absolutely be at a disadvantage to UA if international travel demand returns quickly.

Maybe DL's international widebody fleet should be smaller than UA's because of its route structure?

That's been the case for years. AA's widebody fleet is smaller than UA's too, and AA declared it was going to shrink TPAC to trim the losses. UA, in contrast, said even pre-covid it wanted more domestic lift. More widebodies (vs. YE 2019) at DL just means lower ROI.

If anybody thinks UA has a great fleet mix, answer where all those widebodies are going to be used to earn 16% margins for the next two years. Hawaii isn't it.

MIflyer12 wrote:

n9801f wrote:

UA, in contrast, said even pre-covid it wanted more domestic lift. More widebodies (vs. YE 2019) at DL just means lower ROI.

If anybody thinks UA has a great fleet mix, answer where all those widebodies are going to be used to earn 16% margins for the next two years. Hawaii isn't it.

Moreover I'd be pleasantly surprised if many DL widebodies will be earning 16%.

And I'd be careful extrapolating DL domestic to UA. Many DL hubs are in smaller O&D cities (e.g. DTW vs. ORD, SLC vs. DEN) and also don't participate in the primary US east-west flows to the same extent as UA. For instance today I find 2x DL SAN-DTW vs. 5x UA SAN-ORD. This has pluses and minuses but probably means DL has worse options to fill big planes in those hubs.

lightsaber wrote:

usdcaguy wrote:

DL's approach to enlarging their fleet seems to be to buy as many used aircraft as possible, fix them up and then buy only what they have to buy from the manufacturers. This isn't a bad idea, because it saves them a ton of money. They profited by leasing used 717s from WN who wanted to dump the aircraft, which gave them the right airframes for secondary markets that needed smaller aircraft. Buying used also gets Delta aircraft more quickly than if they wait for a brand new order. This approach tends to age the fleet more quickly, but that happens over a number of years. Most passengers never notice the difference. They do notice, however, that many of DL's international aircraft are aging, and however much some people like the 2-3-2 seating on the 767, many prefer the seemingly newer 777s flown by foreign carriers, especially in business. Those passengers will likely appreciate the new A350s.

Delta, in my opinion, during normal times, has 3 narrowbody fleets.
1. Fleet of highly utilized. This was in the past 739 and reason behind A321NEO.
2. A mid utilization fleet that Delta tends to but used, but for the right price will buy new. e.g., A220.
3. A low utilization fleet that is hand me down aircraft or used. The 717 is the poster child of these purchases, but also the long time utilization of DC-9s and MD-80s and a fine use of older A320s, for example.

There is not consistent demand every day of the week nor every season. (See Allegiant business model). I recommend the December 2019 management presentation.
https://ir.allegiantair.com/presentations

You might note: but that isn't Delta. True. But they operate some fraction of the fleet low utilization. That is what they buy used. The 739s can be used in all three cases until enough A321NEOs ate in the fleet. The high utilization portion is why we speculate on some MAX orders.

Thanks to TechOps, DL manages the maintenance variable cost well. But new is lower cost in high utilization. A network airline sees all aspects of low utilization (this is the Breeze model too, once they have new aircraft, start low utilization and then with efficient, more frequency):
https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/02/10/dav ... ect-plans/

Delta's aircraft purchases are well thought out. In this case, there are not many potential 739ER or A350 buyers today. So delta probably received excellent deals in an overall weak market:
viewtopic.php?t=1460947

I personally expect one large new order from Delta for the high utilization fleet. That is betting on a recovery. We have another thread for that discussion:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1465113

I do expect DL to opportunistically continue buying used. But a mix of new and used for reducing fuel and maintenance costs.

Lightsaber

DL's thirst for second-hand aircraft is heavily embellished within these forums. In less than 8 years, they've taken delivery of over 350 shiny, brand new mainline aircraft; they have commitments for roughly 250 new aircraft to be delivered through 2027 (most of which will be on property within the next few years). That's 600 shiny factory new airplanes, delivered in less than 14 years (and most in less than 10 years). Yes, they're an opportunistic purchaser -- WN & Boeing subsidized the 717 acquisition, the MD-90s were purchased basically for scrap, the 739 are expected to cost less than half that of a MAX/NEO once in service despite being ~8yo on average, the 359 were basically new but acquired at a heavy discount, etc. But alas, second-hand aircraft comprise a fraction of the overall fleet (nor do I think DL would replicate the MD-90 purchase status quo).

DL now has 184 B739 and A321NEO scheduled for delivery, mostly in the next few years. DL has 57 A319 (delivered 1999-2003, but mostly in 2001-2003), 62 A320 (35 delivered 1990-1993 and 27 from 1998-2003), 77 B738 (71 delivered 1998-2003), 100 B757 (delivered pretty evenly from 1990-2003, plus a few more in 2004 & 2005) and 16 B753 (delivered 2002 and 2003). The 184 B739 and NEO on order is more than sufficient to replace the older A320 and B757, as well as account for growth over the next several years. Some of the older A320 may reach their 35th birthday, yet this forum wants to believe that the remainder of the fleet will be replaced at around 20 years. Quite frankly, I believe that if DL had 155 MAX orders instead of NEO, sensibilities would prevail and we wouldn't be having these discussions regularly, but I digress .

Nor do I understand this forum's constant obsession with "but, but, United ordered more widebodies, DL needs to, too!" or "but, but, NK and F9 are expanding like crazy, DL needs to, too." Remember: these are for-profit corporations. Air travel is turning into a commodity. It's simply a fantasy narrative to pretend that an average family of four, for example, is willing to spend an extra $1000 on their Disney vacation so they have a more comfortable flight. Most people are going to spend that money on their vacation, not the 3-hours they spend on a plane each way for a marginally more comfortable flight. Alas, the ULCC will continue to grow at a much faster pace this decade, largely in part because they're manufacturing traffic that DL couldn't turn a profit on. And as for UA? It has a much stronger network built for long-haul than DL, it's not a shocker at all. DL isn't going to make money chasing UA on SFO-SYD, SFO-SIN, etc. by countering with SEA-SYD or SLC-SIN.

n9801f wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

n9801f wrote:

UA, in contrast, said even pre-covid it wanted more domestic lift. More widebodies (vs. YE 2019) at DL just means lower ROI.

If anybody thinks UA has a great fleet mix, answer where all those widebodies are going to be used to earn 16% margins for the next two years. Hawaii isn't it.

Moreover I'd be pleasantly surprised if many DL widebodies will be earning 16%.

And I'd be careful extrapolating DL domestic to UA. Many DL hubs are in smaller O&D cities (e.g. DTW vs. ORD, SLC vs. DEN) and also don't participate in the primary US east-west flows to the same extent as UA. For instance today I find 2x DL SAN-DTW vs. 5x UA SAN-ORD. This has pluses and minuses but probably means DL has worse options to fill big planes in those hubs.

SAN-DTW overflies two other DL hubs, not a good example to try to use. Your whole argument is poor as DL has no fewer O&D passengers in its network than UA (DL actually has more as it carries significantly more passengers than UA), it’s just that UA’s are more heavily concentrated at its hubs. No reason that UA has such a massive widebody fleet these days. That Asia demand is not coming back anytime soon. Also, why have you removed AA from the discussion when I clearly highlighted that BOTH AA and DL have fewer widebodies than UA? Surely AA should need more widebodies than DL given its significantly larger presence in major O&D cities just like UA; right? Shows a poorly crafted logic. The answer is that UA is overburdened with too many widebody aircraft and AA and DL have been more aggressive with removing excess capacity. I think UA will shed some aircraft in the not too distant future (I don’t think all those 777s are coming back).

Jeremy

SESGDL wrote:

SAN-DTW overflies two other DL hubs, not a good example to try to use. Your whole argument is poor as DL has no fewer O&D passengers in its network than UA (DL actually has more as it carries significantly more passengers than UA), it’s just that UA’s are more heavily concentrated at its hubs.

The argument is not that DL carries fewer total O&D passengers. Instead it's that the distribution of those passengers (spread more thinly) makes it harder for DL to fill big planes.

You make part of the argument yourself when you mention UA's concentration of O&D at hubs.

As for SAN-DTW overflying hubs, SAN-ORD does, too.

SESGDL wrote:

Also, why have you removed AA from the discussion when I clearly highlighted that BOTH AA and DL have fewer widebodies than UA? Surely AA should need more widebodies than DL given its significantly larger presence in major O&D cities just like UA; right? Shows a poorly crafted logic. The answer is that UA is overburdened with too many widebody aircraft and AA and DL have been more aggressive with removing excess capacity. I think UA will shed some aircraft in the not too distant future (I don’t think all those 777s are coming back).

I think this misses some key factors about AA.

Sure, AA has positions in big O&D cities. A critical point is that these aren't the same airports where it has connecting hubs!

For instance on the East Coast AA has some strength in JFK (big O&D) plus a connecting hub in PHL (smaller O&D). Similarly on the West Coast AA has strength pulling O&D in LAX but a large partner hub (connections) in SEA. So AA can't overlay big O&D flows with connections at a single airport the way UA does in SFO, and on the margin AA might not be able to support as many smaller intercontinental spokes.

Critically, for both DL and AA, the absence of a West Coast hub that supports large trans-Pacific flying removes either DL or AA from being the top US player in the Asia-Pacific theater. So fewer widebodies needed.

Regarding UA 777's, perhaps UA should/will retire some. However I'd still expect its resulting intercontinental fleet to still be bigger than DL or AA, for both the reasons I mention and the ones WidebodyPTV articulated.
________

At the end of the day, if the true, guiding business goal is profitability, then I don't see why an objective company would care whether it has more or fewer widebodies than a competitor so long as it has the right number to maximize profitability of its particular network.

#14 enroute

PK-LBI 38743 https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PKLBI arrived in HNL.

dalmit wrote:

#14 enroute

PK-LBI 38743 https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PKLBI arrived in HNL.

Along with PK-LBG and PK-LBH!
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PKLBG
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PKLBH

Anyone know about their 3 others...PK-LBJ, PK-LBM and PK-LBO...are these coming to Delta also?

audidudi wrote:

dalmit wrote:

#14 enroute

PK-LBI 38743 https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PKLBI arrived in HNL.

Along with PK-LBG and PK-LBH!
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PKLBG
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PKLBH

Anyone know about their 3 others...PK-LBJ, PK-LBM and PK-LBO...are these coming to Delta also?

My best guess based on the registration sequence is yes they are.

The other likely candidates are:
PK-LQS, PK-LQU, PK-LSG, PK-LHW, 9M-LNF, 9M-LNG, PK-LOF, PK-LSQ, PK-LSL, PK-LSM

lightsaber wrote:

usdcaguy wrote:

DL's approach to enlarging their fleet seems to be to buy as many used aircraft as possible, fix them up and then buy only what they have to buy from the manufacturers. This isn't a bad idea, because it saves them a ton of money. They profited by leasing used 717s from WN who wanted to dump the aircraft, which gave them the right airframes for secondary markets that needed smaller aircraft. Buying used also gets Delta aircraft more quickly than if they wait for a brand new order. This approach tends to age the fleet more quickly, but that happens over a number of years. Most passengers never notice the difference. They do notice, however, that many of DL's international aircraft are aging, and however much some people like the 2-3-2 seating on the 767, many prefer the seemingly newer 777s flown by foreign carriers, especially in business. Those passengers will likely appreciate the new A350s.

Delta, in my opinion, during normal times, has 3 narrowbody fleets.
1. Fleet of highly utilized. This was in the past 739 and reason behind A321NEO.
2. A mid utilization fleet that Delta tends to but used, but for the right price will buy new. e.g., A220.
3. A low utilization fleet that is hand me down aircraft or used. The 717 is the poster child of these purchases, but also the long time utilization of DC-9s and MD-80s and a fine use of older A320s, for example.

There is not consistent demand every day of the week nor every season. (See Allegiant business model). I recommend the December 2019 management presentation.
https://ir.allegiantair.com/presentations

You might note: but that isn't Delta. True. But they operate some fraction of the fleet low utilization. That is what they buy used. The 739s can be used in all three cases until enough A321NEOs ate in the fleet. The high utilization portion is why we speculate on some MAX orders.

Thanks to TechOps, DL manages the maintenance variable cost well. But new is lower cost in high utilization. A network airline sees all aspects of low utilization (this is the Breeze model too, once they have new aircraft, start low utilization and then with efficient, more frequency):
https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/02/10/dav ... ect-plans/

Delta's aircraft purchases are well thought out. In this case, there are not many potential 739ER or A350 buyers today. So delta probably received excellent deals in an overall weak market:
viewtopic.php?t=1460947

I personally expect one large new order from Delta for the high utilization fleet. That is betting on a recovery. We have another thread for that discussion:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1465113

I do expect DL to opportunistically continue buying used. But a mix of new and used for reducing fuel and maintenance costs.

Lightsaber

I hadn't heard anything beyond the AirCap A359s accounted for, but like mentioned previously, I wouldn't be surprised if they are getting calls from lessors and willing to listen to offers. That July Delta press release wasn't just letting shareholders know about an acquisition, it was also an open season call.

Even SAS recently deferred some A359 deliveries from Airbus, so you can imagine the market for getting near-term A350s isn't a large one. We are in this period where if recovery continues you don't want to be the last airline holding the bag and not in-line for plane deliveries when the recovery is in full steam.

Lootess wrote:

We are in this period where if recovery continues you don't want to be the last airline holding the bag and not in-line for plane deliveries when the recovery is in full steam.

Which is precisely why DL was explicit that planned retirements are flexible. It's far more sensible (and a much more conservative approach) to keep an A320, B757 or B763 around for several more years than it is to make a firm purchase commitment to a bunch of planes you have no need for (cancellations and deferrals are a much more expensive option).