lightsaber wrote:

VictorKilo wrote:

Interesting that all 29 737ERs are coming from a single source, and all 7 of the 359s are coming from a single source. I would expect that Delta got an even better deal on these frames by buying in volume from a lessor, rather than the lessor having to find a collage of homes for their frames.

This simplifies everything for both sides.

Knowing this, I bet other leasing companies will call. While they will obviously try to sell for the best deal, an airline buying is better than most cold calls...

Lightsaber

bigb wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

Boof02671 wrote:

Operating multiple fleet types does cost more money. In training, and maintenance as you have to stock more parts.

It’s a proven industry fact, the less fleet types, the less costs you have.

depends what you pay for the aircraft, buying used can make it make sense

Negative, having multi-KE fleet types adds additional complexities thus equal additional costs. The major way of balancing out those additional complexityand costs is by having a large enough fleet of each type to make the investment worthwhile. Once a airline streamlines its fleet and limits the number of types is when massive costs savings and operating flexibility can be had. (Parts, Qualifications of MX personnel, Aircraft subs are easy, flight training of pilots is straight forward, maintaining crews, etc etc).

WidebodyPTV wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

With replacement and the huge retirements, DL will talk. I think with narrowbody aircraft there are many opportunities. With negative interest rates, leasing companies will be happy to place on good terms. A350s? Only really good deals with some quantity to help ease planning to conform to standard.

But narrowbodies in a low interest rate environment after retiring so many and the ability to replace old with new (ish) cheap? DL should keep looking. Only buy on outstanding deals, but look.

These are the fallacies I was referring to earlier. Let's talk about the "huge" retirements. Pre-COVID, the MD-88 was scheduled to be retired by the end of last year, anyway. Within a matter of weeks, all of its intended replacements (that is, the 321 that were deferred into this year) will be on property. So, that leaves 33 B717, 10 B73G and 27 MD-90 (since it appears all of the A320 will return to service). Collectively, those aircraft contained about 9,300 seats. Next year, DL will take delivery of 29 B739 and 18 321NEO; this year and next, DL will take delivery of 7 A220-100 and 12 A220-300. Collectively, those aircraft will contain about 11,000 seats. Thus, by the end of next year, DL will have more narrowbody capacity that it had pre-COVID! If DL needs additional domestic lift, there's huge slack in the widebody fleet, and that's not going to change next year. And I did the math earlier, but by the end of 2025, when the 763 are phased out, DL will have slightly more widebody capacity than it had pre-COVID. And that's around the time the most bullish forecasts project long-haul to match 2019 levels. [Note that some of the delivery slots for the 25 NEO options DL picked up may be next year, so there may actually be far more capacity on property.]

Something else to ponder: pre-COVID, between 2020-2022, DL was expected to take delivery of 53 A220 and 82 321NEO (the 321CEO were to replace the MD-88, so I'm not including those). The only known retirements were the 27 MD-90. Let's be frank: there's absolutely no way DL was going to grow at that rate; it's almost unquestionable that some of the 717, 320 and 757, and the subfleet of 73G, were always scheduled to be phased out. The 73G was a tiny subfleet (which could be logistically challenging at times), the aircraft were ~10yo, still had some value but were made expendable by A223 deliveries. It's very possible that DL was shopping the subfleet around. As I mentioned earlier, the amount of widebody capacity on order exceeded that of the entire 763+764 fleet -- credible rumors indicated DL was shopping some of the younger 763 frames around, and the 763 would not receive upgraded cabins. Thus, it's probable that the 763 were always intended to be retired by mid-decade. And the 717... I started a thread on the type in late 2019 -> there were credible rumors that DL had opted not to move forward with updates and would begin returning aircraft to Boeing. Elsewhere it was noted, very early in 2020, that pilot lines for the 717 were decreasing YOY.

My point is that DL was making changes to its fleet -- we just don't know what they were. COVID gave DL an opportunity to accelerate these changes, and re-shape its fleet for the long-term future. But when you consider facts, DL is not short of capacity. That said... if DL is presented with a deal it couldn't refuse, I fully expect it to take advantage of it.

dstblj52 wrote:

Due to delta's operating style with fairly drastic shifts in the number of hours of operation between seasons, its possible delta planned to grow the fleet but reduce the asm's produced by older frames such that the number of seat miles grew much slower then the fleet grew

rjbesikof wrote:

What routes do you think DL will add resume w/ these new aircraft?

WidebodyPTV wrote:

rjbesikof wrote:

What routes do you think DL will add resume w/ these new aircraft?

You do realize DL’s operating only a small portion of it’s pre-COVID longhaul schedule? Most of the world is still restricted. Outside of a few touristy routes in Europe, there’s virtually no demand at the moment.

ElroyJetson wrote:

This sounds like an excellent strategic move for DL. As they say on Wall Street, buy when there is blood in the streets. DL no doubt got excellent terms on both aircraft types and this move continues to simplify their fleet. Plus, along with LH, I think DL's maintenance, tech ops is the best in the business. These birds will look brand new after DL is done refurbishing them.

Good for DL.

Lootess wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

VictorKilo wrote:

Interesting that all 29 737ERs are coming from a single source, and all 7 of the 359s are coming from a single source. I would expect that Delta got an even better deal on these frames by buying in volume from a lessor, rather than the lessor having to find a collage of homes for their frames.

This simplifies everything for both sides.

Knowing this, I bet other leasing companies will call. While they will obviously try to sell for the best deal, an airline buying is better than most cold calls...

Lightsaber

Yep, this press release can also be seen as a signal that Delta is interested in more attractive leasing rates. With continuously improving financials, and Delta's attitude about long-term fleet renewal it's likely a sure thing the Delta livery will end up being the last owner on these frames.

coronado wrote:

Lootess wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

This simplifies everything for both sides.

Knowing this, I bet other leasing companies will call. While they will obviously try to sell for the best deal, an airline buying is better than most cold calls...

Lightsaber

Yep, this press release can also be seen as a signal that Delta is interested in more attractive leasing rates. With continuously improving financials, and Delta's attitude about long-term fleet renewal it's likely a sure thing the Delta livery will end up being the last owner on these frames.

While it is stated that they are leasing the 7 A350's and just 2 of the B739's, it is stated they are purchasing the other 27 B739ER's. So they get financing terms from the current owners. on these 27 739's which is wise with the uncertain post covid recovery scenarios but I am sure they can prepay that financing as soon as they see things clearer and it makes financial sense. With deliveries in early 2022, it will be interesting to try and deduce their capex on each of these aircraft as they report their commitments on their 3rd Quarter 10Q's. . Keep in mind that under IFRS16 if the 7 A350's and 2 B739 are booked as operating leases, these are now treated essentially the same as financial leases and regular debt financing in the sense that everything is now reported on Delta's balance sheet. The 7 A350 leases if done on a typical 8 year term don't concern me, as it gives Delta an out if there is another black swan event. They do have a ton of A350's on order.

T773ER wrote:

T773ER wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Earnings on Wednesday will likely be the day.

I expect the announcement on Tuesday or very possibly tomorrow.

No longer a rumor, order has now been officially announced by Delta.

https://news.delta.com/delta-add-airbus ... d-recovery

Boof02671 wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

This sounds like an excellent strategic move for DL. As they say on Wall Street, buy when there is blood in the streets. DL no doubt got excellent terms on both aircraft types and this move continues to simplify their fleet. Plus, along with LH, I think DL's maintenance, tech ops is the best in the business. These birds will look brand new after DL is done refurbishing them.

Good for DL.

Delta outsources most of their own heavy maintenance above a C-Check and insources third party work.

Delta outsources their cabin upgrades and redos. These airplanes will be reconfigured by a MRO. Delta even ferries planes to Asia to have their cabin’s upgraded, refurbished and reconfigured.

AdEd wrote:

T773ER wrote:

T773ER wrote:

I expect the announcement on Tuesday or very possibly tomorrow.

No longer a rumor, order has now been officially announced by Delta.

https://news.delta.com/delta-add-airbus ... d-recovery

It says that Delta has 15 A350 on property and another 20 on order (excluding the seven new leases). Where did the order of 10 extra A350s come from, on top of the 25 they placed in 2014?

AdEd wrote:

T773ER wrote:

T773ER wrote:

I expect the announcement on Tuesday or very possibly tomorrow.

No longer a rumor, order has now been officially announced by Delta.

https://news.delta.com/delta-add-airbus ... d-recovery

It says that Delta has 15 A350 on property and another 20 on order (excluding the seven new leases). Where did the order of 10 extra A350s come from, on top of the 25 they placed in 2014?

PANAMsterdam wrote:

I think it is safe to say that Delta isn’t interested in the 737 Max for years to come? Buying these 739’s and with a 131 A320-family + 45 A220 planes still on order I don’t see them buying new Max planes.

PANAMsterdam wrote:

I think it is safe to say that Delta isn’t interested in the 737 Max for years to come? Buying these 739’s and with a 131 A320-family + 45 A220 planes still on order I don’t see them buying new Max planes.

FluidFlow wrote:

PANAMsterdam wrote:

I think it is safe to say that Delta isn’t interested in the 737 Max for years to come? Buying these 739’s and with a 131 A320-family + 45 A220 planes still on order I don’t see them buying new Max planes.

Delta took a lot of end of the line 900ERs and 321ceos. There is a good chance that in 15-20 years when these aircraft are up for replacement Delta will take some end of the line MAX-9s or -10s.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

With replacement and the huge retirements, DL will talk. I think with narrowbody aircraft there are many opportunities. With negative interest rates, leasing companies will be happy to place on good terms. A350s? Only really good deals with some quantity to help ease planning to conform to standard.

But narrowbodies in a low interest rate environment after retiring so many and the ability to replace old with new (ish) cheap? DL should keep looking. Only buy on outstanding deals, but look.

These are the fallacies I was referring to earlier. Let's talk about the "huge" retirements. Pre-COVID, the MD-88 was scheduled to be retired by the end of last year, anyway. Within a matter of weeks, all of its intended replacements (that is, the 321 that were deferred into this year) will be on property. So, that leaves 33 B717, 10 B73G and 27 MD-90 (since it appears all of the A320 will return to service). Collectively, those aircraft contained about 9,300 seats. Next year, DL will take delivery of 29 B739 and 18 321NEO; this year and next, DL will take delivery of 7 A220-100 and 12 A220-300. Collectively, those aircraft will contain about 11,000 seats. Thus, by the end of next year, DL will have more narrowbody capacity that it had pre-COVID! If DL needs additional domestic lift, there's huge slack in the widebody fleet, and that's not going to change next year. And I did the math earlier, but by the end of 2025, when the 763 are phased out, DL will have slightly more widebody capacity than it had pre-COVID. And that's around the time the most bullish forecasts project long-haul to match 2019 levels. [Note that some of the delivery slots for the 25 NEO options DL picked up may be next year, so there may actually be far more capacity on property.]

Something else to ponder: pre-COVID, between 2020-2022, DL was expected to take delivery of 53 A220 and 82 321NEO (the 321CEO were to replace the MD-88, so I'm not including those). The only known retirements were the 27 MD-90. Let's be frank: there's absolutely no way DL was going to grow at that rate; it's almost unquestionable that some of the 717, 320 and 757, and the subfleet of 73G, were always scheduled to be phased out. The 73G was a tiny subfleet (which could be logistically challenging at times), the aircraft were ~10yo, still had some value but were made expendable by A223 deliveries. It's very possible that DL was shopping the subfleet around. As I mentioned earlier, the amount of widebody capacity on order exceeded that of the entire 763+764 fleet -- credible rumors indicated DL was shopping some of the younger 763 frames around, and the 763 would not receive upgraded cabins. Thus, it's probable that the 763 were always intended to be retired by mid-decade. And the 717... I started a thread on the type in late 2019 -> there were credible rumors that DL had opted not to move forward with updates and would begin returning aircraft to Boeing. Elsewhere it was noted, very early in 2020, that pilot lines for the 717 were decreasing YOY.

My point is that DL was making changes to its fleet -- we just don't know what they were. COVID gave DL an opportunity to accelerate these changes, and re-shape its fleet for the long-term future. But when you consider facts, DL is not short of capacity. That said... if DL is presented with a deal it couldn't refuse, I fully expect it to take advantage of it.

dstblj52 wrote:

bigb wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

depends what you pay for the aircraft, buying used can make it make sense

Negative, having multi-KE fleet types adds additional complexities thus equal additional costs. The major way of balancing out those additional complexityand costs is by having a large enough fleet of each type to make the investment worthwhile. Once a airline streamlines its fleet and limits the number of types is when massive costs savings and operating flexibility can be had. (Parts, Qualifications of MX personnel, Aircraft subs are easy, flight training of pilots is straight forward, maintaining crews, etc etc).

It adds some costs, yes, but your seeing some costs and thinking that's all the cost, your ignoring the significantly reduced purchase price that is usually available on orphaned types

T773ER wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

With replacement and the huge retirements, DL will talk. I think with narrowbody aircraft there are many opportunities. With negative interest rates, leasing companies will be happy to place on good terms. A350s? Only really good deals with some quantity to help ease planning to conform to standard.

But narrowbodies in a low interest rate environment after retiring so many and the ability to replace old with new (ish) cheap? DL should keep looking. Only buy on outstanding deals, but look.

These are the fallacies I was referring to earlier. Let's talk about the "huge" retirements. Pre-COVID, the MD-88 was scheduled to be retired by the end of last year, anyway. Within a matter of weeks, all of its intended replacements (that is, the 321 that were deferred into this year) will be on property. So, that leaves 33 B717, 10 B73G and 27 MD-90 (since it appears all of the A320 will return to service). Collectively, those aircraft contained about 9,300 seats. Next year, DL will take delivery of 29 B739 and 18 321NEO; this year and next, DL will take delivery of 7 A220-100 and 12 A220-300. Collectively, those aircraft will contain about 11,000 seats. Thus, by the end of next year, DL will have more narrowbody capacity that it had pre-COVID! If DL needs additional domestic lift, there's huge slack in the widebody fleet, and that's not going to change next year. And I did the math earlier, but by the end of 2025, when the 763 are phased out, DL will have slightly more widebody capacity than it had pre-COVID. And that's around the time the most bullish forecasts project long-haul to match 2019 levels. [Note that some of the delivery slots for the 25 NEO options DL picked up may be next year, so there may actually be far more capacity on property.]

Something else to ponder: pre-COVID, between 2020-2022, DL was expected to take delivery of 53 A220 and 82 321NEO (the 321CEO were to replace the MD-88, so I'm not including those). The only known retirements were the 27 MD-90. Let's be frank: there's absolutely no way DL was going to grow at that rate; it's almost unquestionable that some of the 717, 320 and 757, and the subfleet of 73G, were always scheduled to be phased out. The 73G was a tiny subfleet (which could be logistically challenging at times), the aircraft were ~10yo, still had some value but were made expendable by A223 deliveries. It's very possible that DL was shopping the subfleet around. As I mentioned earlier, the amount of widebody capacity on order exceeded that of the entire 763+764 fleet -- credible rumors indicated DL was shopping some of the younger 763 frames around, and the 763 would not receive upgraded cabins. Thus, it's probable that the 763 were always intended to be retired by mid-decade. And the 717... I started a thread on the type in late 2019 -> there were credible rumors that DL had opted not to move forward with updates and would begin returning aircraft to Boeing. Elsewhere it was noted, very early in 2020, that pilot lines for the 717 were decreasing YOY.

My point is that DL was making changes to its fleet -- we just don't know what they were. COVID gave DL an opportunity to accelerate these changes, and re-shape its fleet for the long-term future. But when you consider facts, DL is not short of capacity. That said... if DL is presented with a deal it couldn't refuse, I fully expect it to take advantage of it.

Just to add to this, you'll see around 14 of the 717's coming back into service to bring that fleet total to around 65-70. Delta has the ability to flex up as it meets the surge in domestic demand, and with the purchase of these used 350's and the pulling forward of 330NEO and A350 deliveries it's positioning itself to do the same in the international market. Delta recently purchased a 757/767 sim as well, so the 767 will be the new international flex fleet and it's very likely to see those retirements pushed past 2025 in response to needed capacity.

By the end of 2022 Delta's overall fleet size will be as large if not larger than 2019 levels at just over 900 aircraft, and in a much simplified version. The biggest constraint will be pilot training, I would expect to see some fleet specific issues with this in the next 12-18 months.

WayexTDI wrote:

With the exception of the 717, what other orphan types does DL have? Even the out-of-production 757 is not an orphan plane

coronado wrote:

Keep in mind that under IFRS16 if the 7 A350's and 2 B739 are booked as operating leases, these are now treated essentially the same as financial leases and regular debt financing in the sense that everything is now reported on Delta's balance sheet.

Prost wrote:

How feasible would it be to outfit a handful of A350s in a domestic configuration with Premium Select as a domestic FC cabin. Comfort + and Coach? All with the understanding that when international ramps up the Premium Select section in the nose section gets replaced with the Delta One cabin?

WidebodyPTV wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

Due to delta's operating style with fairly drastic shifts in the number of hours of operation between seasons, its possible delta planned to grow the fleet but reduce the asm's produced by older frames such that the number of seat miles grew much slower then the fleet grew

There was definitely a fair number of planned retirements.

DL already had a healthy number of "flex aircraft" for seasonal fluctuations. They may have added slightly to it, but it cost money to store and maintain aircraft that are only needed seasonally. Nor does DL hire seasonal flight crews . The number of "flex aircraft" will always be inherently limited.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

rjbesikof wrote:

What routes do you think DL will add resume w/ these new aircraft?

You do realize DL’s operating only a small portion of it’s pre-COVID longhaul schedule? Most of the world is still restricted. Outside of a few touristy routes in Europe, there’s virtually no demand at the moment.

PM wrote:

So ...

PR-XTF (msn 064) becomes N571DZ and PR-XTK (msn 282) becomes N575DZ. Both are leased from AerCap.

That would suggest ...

msn 200 PR-XTH becomes N572DZ
msn 250 PR-XTI becomes N573DZ
msn 265 PR-XTJ becomes N574DZ

The other two AerCap leases are msn 048 PR-XTE (N570DZ?) and msn 313 PR-XTL (N576DZ?)

I'm just guessing, of course.

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:

PM wrote:

So ...

PR-XTF (msn 064) becomes N571DZ and PR-XTK (msn 282) becomes N575DZ. Both are leased from AerCap.

That would suggest ...

msn 200 PR-XTH becomes N572DZ
msn 250 PR-XTI becomes N573DZ
msn 265 PR-XTJ becomes N574DZ

The other two AerCap leases are msn 048 PR-XTE (N570DZ?) and msn 313 PR-XTL (N576DZ?)

I'm just guessing, of course.

Riding on your post:
1. PR-XTE (MSN 048) becomes N570DZ
2. PR-XTF (MSN 064) becomes N571DZ
3. PR-XTH (MSN 200) becomes N572DZ
4. PR-XTI (MSN 250) becomes N573DZ
5. PR-XTJ (MSN 265) becomes N574DZ
6. PR-XTK (MSN 282) becomes N575DZ
7. PR-XTL (MSN 313) becomes N576DZ

These will leave the following LATAM A350s looking for new customers:
1. PR-XTA (MSN 024) WTC - Wilmington Trust Company
2. PR-XTB (MSN 027) WTC - Wilmington Trust Company
3. PR-XTC (MSN 035) Pilar I Leasing Limited
4. PR-XTD (MSN 045) Pilar I Leasing Limited
5. PR-XTG (MSN 079) Pilar I Leasing Limited
6. PR-XTM (MSN 363) WTC - Wilmington Trust Company

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:

PM wrote:

So ...

PR-XTF (msn 064) becomes N571DZ and PR-XTK (msn 282) becomes N575DZ. Both are leased from AerCap.

That would suggest ...

msn 200 PR-XTH becomes N572DZ
msn 250 PR-XTI becomes N573DZ
msn 265 PR-XTJ becomes N574DZ

The other two AerCap leases are msn 048 PR-XTE (N570DZ?) and msn 313 PR-XTL (N576DZ?)

I'm just guessing, of course.

Riding on your post:
1. PR-XTE (MSN 048) becomes N570DZ
2. PR-XTF (MSN 064) becomes N571DZ
3. PR-XTH (MSN 200) becomes N572DZ
4. PR-XTI (MSN 250) becomes N573DZ
5. PR-XTJ (MSN 265) becomes N574DZ
6. PR-XTK (MSN 282) becomes N575DZ
7. PR-XTL (MSN 313) becomes N576DZ

These will leave the following LATAM A350s looking for new customers:
1. PR-XTA (MSN 024) WTC - Wilmington Trust Company
2. PR-XTB (MSN 027) WTC - Wilmington Trust Company
3. PR-XTC (MSN 035) Pilar I Leasing Limited
4. PR-XTD (MSN 045) Pilar I Leasing Limited
5. PR-XTG (MSN 079) Pilar I Leasing Limited
6. PR-XTM (MSN 363) WTC - Wilmington Trust Company

Prost wrote:

How feasible would it be to outfit a handful of A350s in a domestic configuration with Premium Select as a domestic FC cabin. Comfort + and Coach? All with the understanding that when international ramps up the Premium Select section in the nose section gets replaced with the Delta One cabin?

Boof02671 wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

Boof02671 wrote:

Operating multiple fleet types does cost more money. In training, and maintenance as you have to stock more parts.

It’s a proven industry fact, the less fleet types, the less costs you have.

depends what you pay for the aircraft, buying used can make it make sense

Not true. I worked in Maintenance (Stores) simplified fleets reduced parts, spares, and maintenance costs. I worked and loved it for 20 years. It also reduces pilot and flight attendant training costs.

Many states make airlines pay tax on parts inventory. PA was one of them. So once a year multiple parts were moved lot of PA to other distribution centers or sold and bought back to avoid paying the taxes on parts.

Airlines stock billions of dollars of parts. Less fleet type and more commonality is less parts to have on hand and more interchangeable.

Look at AA: Airbus 320 family, 787s, 738s and 777. They reduced their costs tremendously by simplifying the fleet.

B6: A320 family, E190s (which are leaving the fleet) amd A220s

CARST wrote:

Boof02671 wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

depends what you pay for the aircraft, buying used can make it make sense

Not true. I worked in Maintenance (Stores) simplified fleets reduced parts, spares, and maintenance costs. I worked and loved it for 20 years. It also reduces pilot and flight attendant training costs.

Many states make airlines pay tax on parts inventory. PA was one of them. So once a year multiple parts were moved lot of PA to other distribution centers or sold and bought back to avoid paying the taxes on parts.

Airlines stock billions of dollars of parts. Less fleet type and more commonality is less parts to have on hand and more interchangeable.

Look at AA: Airbus 320 family, 787s, 738s and 777. They reduced their costs tremendously by simplifying the fleet.

B6: A320 family, E190s (which are leaving the fleet) amd A220s

Your whole "no subfleets" mantra is not really valid anymore these days. It's something that's still in many people's heads from the older times, when airlines were way smaller. Think Delta pre merger and then probably another 10 years back.

As soon as your subfleet is 20/30+ aircraft strong, it is usually considered large enough these days to operate as a profitable subfleet regarding added maintenance costs and additionally trained crews and staff. Sure you don't want to stretch out a 20-aircraft subfleet over three different hubs requiring multiple maintenance bases for this subfleet. Some points still stand. But considering how large some airlines have become, especially post the mergers of the past 20 years in the USA and Europe, you can easily operate different aircrafts in the same size category these days. The advantage of playing both manufacturers this way usually outweighs the advantages of operating a single, very large fleet of one type.

Elementalism wrote:

Delta really likes the 900-ERs. How many will be in the fleet after this acquisition? About 160?

ScottB wrote:

coronado wrote:

Keep in mind that under IFRS16 if the 7 A350's and 2 B739 are booked as operating leases, these are now treated essentially the same as financial leases and regular debt financing in the sense that everything is now reported on Delta's balance sheet.

If IFRS were applicable to U.S. companies, this would be true, but it's not. Delta has to comply with GAAP, not IFRS.

Prost wrote:

How feasible would it be to outfit a handful of A350s in a domestic configuration with Premium Select as a domestic FC cabin. Comfort + and Coach? All with the understanding that when international ramps up the Premium Select section in the nose section gets replaced with the Delta One cabin?

It'd make sense if they felt the recovery in international markets would take several years. If most long-haul traffic has returned by 2023 it's probably not worthwhile to go through the expense of reconfiguration twice. They're probably just better-off accepting the capacity hit and still operating them domestic if they need the seats.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

T773ER wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

These are the fallacies I was referring to earlier. Let's talk about the "huge" retirements. Pre-COVID, the MD-88 was scheduled to be retired by the end of last year, anyway. Within a matter of weeks, all of its intended replacements (that is, the 321 that were deferred into this year) will be on property. So, that leaves 33 B717, 10 B73G and 27 MD-90 (since it appears all of the A320 will return to service). Collectively, those aircraft contained about 9,300 seats. Next year, DL will take delivery of 29 B739 and 18 321NEO; this year and next, DL will take delivery of 7 A220-100 and 12 A220-300. Collectively, those aircraft will contain about 11,000 seats. Thus, by the end of next year, DL will have more narrowbody capacity that it had pre-COVID! If DL needs additional domestic lift, there's huge slack in the widebody fleet, and that's not going to change next year. And I did the math earlier, but by the end of 2025, when the 763 are phased out, DL will have slightly more widebody capacity than it had pre-COVID. And that's around the time the most bullish forecasts project long-haul to match 2019 levels. [Note that some of the delivery slots for the 25 NEO options DL picked up may be next year, so there may actually be far more capacity on property.]

Something else to ponder: pre-COVID, between 2020-2022, DL was expected to take delivery of 53 A220 and 82 321NEO (the 321CEO were to replace the MD-88, so I'm not including those). The only known retirements were the 27 MD-90. Let's be frank: there's absolutely no way DL was going to grow at that rate; it's almost unquestionable that some of the 717, 320 and 757, and the subfleet of 73G, were always scheduled to be phased out. The 73G was a tiny subfleet (which could be logistically challenging at times), the aircraft were ~10yo, still had some value but were made expendable by A223 deliveries. It's very possible that DL was shopping the subfleet around. As I mentioned earlier, the amount of widebody capacity on order exceeded that of the entire 763+764 fleet -- credible rumors indicated DL was shopping some of the younger 763 frames around, and the 763 would not receive upgraded cabins. Thus, it's probable that the 763 were always intended to be retired by mid-decade. And the 717... I started a thread on the type in late 2019 -> there were credible rumors that DL had opted not to move forward with updates and would begin returning aircraft to Boeing. Elsewhere it was noted, very early in 2020, that pilot lines for the 717 were decreasing YOY.

My point is that DL was making changes to its fleet -- we just don't know what they were. COVID gave DL an opportunity to accelerate these changes, and re-shape its fleet for the long-term future. But when you consider facts, DL is not short of capacity. That said... if DL is presented with a deal it couldn't refuse, I fully expect it to take advantage of it.

Just to add to this, you'll see around 14 of the 717's coming back into service to bring that fleet total to around 65-70. Delta has the ability to flex up as it meets the surge in domestic demand, and with the purchase of these used 350's and the pulling forward of 330NEO and A350 deliveries it's positioning itself to do the same in the international market. Delta recently purchased a 757/767 sim as well, so the 767 will be the new international flex fleet and it's very likely to see those retirements pushed past 2025 in response to needed capacity.

By the end of 2022 Delta's overall fleet size will be as large if not larger than 2019 levels at just over 900 aircraft, and in a much simplified version. The biggest constraint will be pilot training, I would expect to see some fleet specific issues with this in the next 12-18 months.

There’s four company owned 717 that have been retired, but the rest have been returned to Boeing. There’s little chance these aircraft will return to service — it’s far more likely that DL would accelerate delivery of the A220. If DL needs more immediate domestic capacity, there’s plenty of idle wodebodies that could fill in (or even be pulled from long haul service, instead of carrying 30 people to Tokyo during its lockdown). Far more conservative path. Optimism is great, but the markets aren’t convinced of near term recovery and
neither should the Industry.

I believe that DL intended on replacing the 717 and 763 by mid decade well before COVID, and I think they’ll stick to that strategy. Unless they continue to defer deliveries.

777Mech wrote:

You don't know what you're talking about with the 717s. The company owned ones were scrapped for parts, however a grand total of 0 have been returned to BCC. Another 3 more are scheduled to come out of storage and get C checks and the seatback AD. All of the stored 717s are still on the opspec.

tinpusher007 wrote:

KMCOFlyer wrote:

Boof02671 wrote:

Delta will be getting the cabins redone I would think. As to have conformity.

They will obviously replace the seats, carpets, etc but when DL refurbished their own 738s, the ones without the Boeing Sky Interior did not get new bins or sidewalls like their counterpart 739s.

I remember reading that the Boeing Sky Interior could not be retrofitted into a cabin that didn't originally come with it. I cant imagine why, but that's the case apparently. I certainly hope they have the sky interior.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

* It appears DL's order for 25 A321 NEO earlier this year was a new order, rather than an exercise of options (options remain at 100, but orders grew to 125).

WidebodyPTV wrote:

Fascinating tidbit from DL's 10-Q:
* It appears DL's order for 25 A321 NEO earlier this year was a new order, rather than an exercise of options (options remain at 100, but orders grew to 125).
* Purchase commitments beyond 2021 grew by $1.57B. Language was added to indicate this doesn't include lease commitments... and the seven A359 are listed as leases under purchase commitments. So, presumably DL paid $1.57B for 25 321 NEO + 27 (or 29) used B739.
* Purchase commitments grew by $870M in 2022 and $580M in 2023. So it appears DL got a fantastic deal on 321 NEO production slots in 2022 (into 2023) and paid very, very little for the B739.

MIflyer12 wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

With the exception of the 717, what other orphan types does DL have? Even the out-of-production 757 is not an orphan plane

It would certainly be fair to describe the departed MD-90s as orphans. From an initial receipt of 16 new they built a fleet of 65 (and multiple non-flown aircraft for parts) in a series of transactions.