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JonesNL
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:50 pm

3rdGen wrote:
Precisely, will the number of crashes due to automation be canceled out by the number of times it saves the day due to a lack of human error/ ability. You can also find videos that show instances when the Tesla automation avoided an accident.

The technological advancements of the west would never have happened had individuals not accepted higher levels of risk than they today. I'm not saying that they should accept them now. I'm just raising a point here, that if we had 1950s level of safety in aviation today would the public accept air travel? Perhaps not, but what would the world look like today if people's in the 1950s hadn't accepted that risk and aviation was never developed beyond a hobby? Electricity killed hundreds of people when it was first introduced. People had live exposed wires hanging around their houses because they didn't understand the risk they posed.

Perhaps the low risk appetite in the west could lead to a situation where 3rd world countries move ahead as their public are more ready to accept (or are just more ignorant) of the risks associated with some advancements, in a similar fashion to the public in the west in a bygone era?


As an Tesla owner I must say it is the worst example in preventing accident. Phantom braking makes it downright dangerous from time to time. Audi’s pro assist or Volvo’s pilot assist are much smoother and saver then Tesla’s autopilot. No experience with FSD though, but I know owners that have the same experience with it. It’s like an insecure 5 year old is driving…
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:52 pm

All down to $$.
If this makes sense financially all airlines will push for it accepting higher risk (if such is determined).
 
pranav7478
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:28 pm

i immediately thought of germanwings 9525. i would not want to fly a single pilot operated plane, and i thought they made it required to have two pilots in the cockpit at all times after that incident...
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pranav7478
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:36 pm

JonesNL wrote:
3rdGen wrote:
Precisely, will the number of crashes due to automation be canceled out by the number of times it saves the day due to a lack of human error/ ability. You can also find videos that show instances when the Tesla automation avoided an accident.

The technological advancements of the west would never have happened had individuals not accepted higher levels of risk than they today. I'm not saying that they should accept them now. I'm just raising a point here, that if we had 1950s level of safety in aviation today would the public accept air travel? Perhaps not, but what would the world look like today if people's in the 1950s hadn't accepted that risk and aviation was never developed beyond a hobby? Electricity killed hundreds of people when it was first introduced. People had live exposed wires hanging around their houses because they didn't understand the risk they posed.

Perhaps the low risk appetite in the west could lead to a situation where 3rd world countries move ahead as their public are more ready to accept (or are just more ignorant) of the risks associated with some advancements, in a similar fashion to the public in the west in a bygone era?


As an Tesla owner I must say it is the worst example in preventing accident. Phantom braking makes it downright dangerous from time to time. Audi’s pro assist or Volvo’s pilot assist are much smoother and saver then Tesla’s autopilot. No experience with FSD though, but I know owners that have the same experience with it. It’s like an insecure 5 year old is driving…

tesla owner here also. i have the fsd package, and i think it is the biggest waste of money ever. there are far superior and safer systems out there. i lost control twice and fishtailed, and after that i almost never used autopilot again. the fact that they are removing the front facing radar is absolutely stupid. that has been the fundamental piece of hardware for front collision safety systems since forever. there is no redundancy anymore. if they ever disable my front facing radar, i will likely immediately sell that car (unless they actually somehow eventually make robotaxi with their bare minimum camera setup).

anyways back to aviation... even though i think that airbus can easily make a single person operated plane, there is not much redundancy. what if there is no second pilot on the plane to take over if the main pilot is incapacitated? what if the main pilot does the same thing as germanwings 9525? i wouldnt fly on a single pilot operated plane ever. id rather pay even a few thousand more for tickets than take that risk.
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AngMoh
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:42 am

jayunited wrote:
3rdGen wrote:
For all the posters mentioning flights that had flight control issues and how a single pilot couldn't deal with them: The A350 is a fully FBW aircraft (including the rudder). Those accidents are not applicable to the aircraft. There's nothing the pilots can do that the computers couldn't do. If you look at the accident history of Airbus FBW there has never been an accident where pilots had to 'fight' the aircraft. There's only wires between the cockpit and the actuators.

Although there are many issues to discuss when it comes to single pilot ops, there are some that simply aren't applicable to the A350.


The 777 is a FBW aircraft and it took more than 1 pilot to save two different PW 777s when those fan blades sheer off during flight.

Also I would suggest you go to YouTube and watch the interview the captain of the United flight gave on the flight between SFO-HNL. It is a long video, over an hour long but in it he states the NTSB, FAA, and UA all tried to recreate the successful landing of that aircraft in simulator using only the computers, but each and every time they ran the simulation the flight failed to make HNL because computers run calculation and make sound decisions based off those calculations. However no computer can replace a human beings will, and at one point the captain stated he was prepared to die but he then remembered he had 366 passengers lives in his hands and he thought of his family as well and what should have resulted in a crash in the Pacific Ocean resulted in a safe landing at HNL because the pilots had refused to surrender and give up but the computer no matter how many times these agencies ran the simulations always ended in a crash in the Pacific.

In a life or death situation I'd rather have human beings at the control who will at the very least fight to survive and not have a computer that doesn't understand the will to live or the gravity of the situation that there are actual human beings lives in its hands and it should always fight for life not make a decision based off calculations that could result in your death.

Watch the complete interview on YouTube it will give you a whole new appreciation for having human beings on the flight deck making decisions when your life is on the line.


The point is that the incidents you refer to are based on a phase of the flight were single pilot operation would explicitly not be allowed and this is one of the reasons. A HARA would be performed, looking at all risks and blade shedding during take off and climb would definitely be in the list and mitigation would be single pilots ops not being allowed during that time.

The process to approve single pilot operations during cruise will the same as ETOPS. It will have additional requirements on aircraft, pilots, maintenance, operations and whatever else is needed. In the past nobody would dare to go on a twin engine plane flying from New York to London and airlines, regulators and passengers would insist on tri-jets and quads, but now we are flying non-stop on twins from Sydney to South America over Antarctica and hours away from the nearest airport and nobody blinks an eyelid (everyone is sound asleep during the flight).

I can not see how this is not going to be rolled out. Keep in mind that Asian airlines already deploy auto-land and other automation more than other airlines. CX has an additional driver and that is to reduce reliance on foreign pilots/staff.

I can only think off one specific historic case where single pilot operations during cruise with high level automation on modern aircraft would have caused a major problem and that is the incident with QF Flight 72 where a fault combined with a software limitation caused a major sudden upset during cruise. And this is an exceptionally rare event.
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Aaron747
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:15 am

AngMoh wrote:
jayunited wrote:
3rdGen wrote:
For all the posters mentioning flights that had flight control issues and how a single pilot couldn't deal with them: The A350 is a fully FBW aircraft (including the rudder). Those accidents are not applicable to the aircraft. There's nothing the pilots can do that the computers couldn't do. If you look at the accident history of Airbus FBW there has never been an accident where pilots had to 'fight' the aircraft. There's only wires between the cockpit and the actuators.

Although there are many issues to discuss when it comes to single pilot ops, there are some that simply aren't applicable to the A350.


The 777 is a FBW aircraft and it took more than 1 pilot to save two different PW 777s when those fan blades sheer off during flight.

Also I would suggest you go to YouTube and watch the interview the captain of the United flight gave on the flight between SFO-HNL. It is a long video, over an hour long but in it he states the NTSB, FAA, and UA all tried to recreate the successful landing of that aircraft in simulator using only the computers, but each and every time they ran the simulation the flight failed to make HNL because computers run calculation and make sound decisions based off those calculations. However no computer can replace a human beings will, and at one point the captain stated he was prepared to die but he then remembered he had 366 passengers lives in his hands and he thought of his family as well and what should have resulted in a crash in the Pacific Ocean resulted in a safe landing at HNL because the pilots had refused to surrender and give up but the computer no matter how many times these agencies ran the simulations always ended in a crash in the Pacific.

In a life or death situation I'd rather have human beings at the control who will at the very least fight to survive and not have a computer that doesn't understand the will to live or the gravity of the situation that there are actual human beings lives in its hands and it should always fight for life not make a decision based off calculations that could result in your death.

Watch the complete interview on YouTube it will give you a whole new appreciation for having human beings on the flight deck making decisions when your life is on the line.


The point is that the incidents you refer to are based on a phase of the flight were single pilot operation would explicitly not be allowed and this is one of the reasons. A HARA would be performed, looking at all risks and blade shedding during take off and climb would definitely be in the list and mitigation would be single pilots ops not being allowed during that time.

The process to approve single pilot operations during cruise will the same as ETOPS. It will have additional requirements on aircraft, pilots, maintenance, operations and whatever else is needed. In the past nobody would dare to go on a twin engine plane flying from New York to London and airlines, regulators and passengers would insist on tri-jets and quads, but now we are flying non-stop on twins from Sydney to South America over Antarctica and hours away from the nearest airport and nobody blinks an eyelid (everyone is sound asleep during the flight).

I can not see how this is not going to be rolled out. Keep in mind that Asian airlines already deploy auto-land and other automation more than other airlines. CX has an additional driver and that is to reduce reliance on foreign pilots/staff.

I can only think off one specific historic case where single pilot operations during cruise with high level automation on modern aircraft would have caused a major problem and that is the incident with QF Flight 72 where a fault combined with a software limitation caused a major sudden upset during cruise. And this is an exceptionally rare event.


You seem to be conflating incidents here. UA238 was in climb phase, UA1175 was at cruise over the Pacific. In the latter incident, the upset due to loss of the #2 engine disconnected the AP and the situation was handled through apt coordination of all flight crew members. Jayunited's account was from UA1175.
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gia777
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:40 am

they can do it . But I want the price of ticket reduced too. I am just being logical here.
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avier
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:01 am

The insurance premiums for such aircraft and ops would likely shoot up like crazy. Any benefits accrued, by way of cost savings, from having reduced crew would then likely be reduced or even negated altogether.
 
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CrimsonNL
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:41 am

pranav7478 wrote:
i immediately thought of germanwings 9525. i would not want to fly a single pilot operated plane, and i thought they made it required to have two pilots in the cockpit at all times after that incident...


Every time with 2 crew when a pilot goes to use the lavatory, it turns the aircraft into a one-pilot operation..

Also some people on this thread are grossly overestimating the knowledge of the average passenger flying in the back. Do you really think that guy in seat 38B has any clue at all about 2 pilots, augumented crews, heavy crew, crew rest during the flight, etc. etc.? Passengers won't know and they won't care.
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zeke
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:00 am

CrimsonNL wrote:
Every time with 2 crew when a pilot goes to use the lavatory, it turns the aircraft into a one-pilot operation..


In that case we would still have two crew on the flight deck, one of the cabin crew comes up and straps in.
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CrimsonNL
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:19 am

zeke wrote:
CrimsonNL wrote:
Every time with 2 crew when a pilot goes to use the lavatory, it turns the aircraft into a one-pilot operation..


In that case we would still have two crew on the flight deck, one of the cabin crew comes up and straps in.


Well that is company specific, there are plenty of airlines out there who don't have that rule. And personally I'd argue that an untrained flight attendant will hardly be able to stop a determined pilot wanting to crash the aircraft..
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zeke
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 7:17 am

CrimsonNL wrote:
Well that is company specific, there are plenty of airlines out there who don't have that rule. And personally I'd argue that an untrained flight attendant will hardly be able to stop a determined pilot wanting to crash the aircraft..


It’s a regulatory requirement here, and they are more than capable of reading a checklist, placing an oxygen mask on a pilot, moving a pilots seat back, making a PA, and opening a door.
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Noshow
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:55 am

Some argue that passengers are just stupid and won't know anyway. The opposite is true. We had ticket search engine filters where people could opt out of flying onboard a MAX after the crashes and even before the grounding as it was perceived to be dangerous by some. This will continue and passengers will know and share how many pilots fly their aircraft. Now let one crash or serious incident happen and a carefully polished airline brand can be toast in no time. Investors will not like this.

Why would the industry want to abandon redundancy? We have seen how costs will be higher than savings elsewhere. In my view trading safety for cost reductions is a totally wrong mindset. This will come back and bite the industry.
 
mxaxai
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:40 am

zeke wrote:
CrimsonNL wrote:
Every time with 2 crew when a pilot goes to use the lavatory, it turns the aircraft into a one-pilot operation..


In that case we would still have two crew on the flight deck, one of the cabin crew comes up and straps in.

That would still be an option for this proposed single-pilot operation, I suppose. The FAs are on board anyway. Let one pilot sleep while the FA ensures that the other pilot doesn't commit suicide.
 
Noshow
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:02 am

And if the single future pilot leaves for a restroom break we will have to flight attendants come to the cockpit then sitting at the controls? :bigthumbsup:
 
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Aaron747
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:13 am

Noshow wrote:
Some argue that passengers are just stupid and won't know anyway. The opposite is true. We had ticket search engine filters where people could opt out of flying onboard a MAX after the crashes and even before the grounding as it was perceived to be dangerous by some. This will continue and passengers will know and share how many pilots fly their aircraft. Now let one crash or serious incident happen and a carefully polished airline brand can be toast in no time. Investors will not like this.

Why would the industry want to abandon redundancy? We have seen how costs will be higher than savings elsewhere. In my view trading safety for cost reductions is a totally wrong mindset. This will come back and bite the industry.


Precisely - the risk/benefit analysis isn't there for insurers and other stakeholders. With all now understood and proven on the topic of fatigue, it is actually illogical to move away from the current augmentation model.
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avier
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:20 pm

Noshow wrote:
And if the single future pilot leaves for a restroom break we will have to flight attendants come to the cockpit then sitting at the controls? :bigthumbsup:

Yeah and a.net pundits will then come to the conclusion that FA's will be the natural replacement for single pilot ops, since they are able to fill in for pilot's a loo breaks.
That is their reasoning anyways regarding the shift from two to single pilot ops.
 
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Revelation
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:14 pm

mxaxai wrote:
zeke wrote:
CrimsonNL wrote:
Every time with 2 crew when a pilot goes to use the lavatory, it turns the aircraft into a one-pilot operation..

In that case we would still have two crew on the flight deck, one of the cabin crew comes up and straps in.

That would still be an option for this proposed single-pilot operation, I suppose. The FAs are on board anyway. Let one pilot sleep while the FA ensures that the other pilot doesn't commit suicide.

Noshow wrote:
And if the single future pilot leaves for a restroom break we will have to flight attendants come to the cockpit then sitting at the controls? :bigthumbsup:

I'm starting to think that the movie Airplane! was a documentary...
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lalib
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:39 pm

3rdGen wrote:
Nnaeto87 wrote:
Does it really cost that much to have 2 pilots in the cockpit at all times?


Exactly! what next bring your on food and toilet paper?

I won't be flying CX if they make this move and I'm from Hong Kong!



This achieves a few benefits;

1) On ultra long haul operations that require 4 pilots you can use 2 instead. So you save on salaries + allowances of 2 pilots.
2) During longer 2 pilot flights (e.g. 5+ hours), pilots be asked to take rest. In some jurisdictions time spent resting in the bunk does not count toward flight time limitations, so scheduling can then utilize the pilot for more flights than if he didn’t rest. Good for airlines in places like the Middle East where there’s no union to stop this from happening.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:08 pm

AngMoh wrote:

I can not see how this is not going to be rolled out. Keep in mind that Asian airlines already deploy auto-land and other automation more than other airlines. CX has an additional driver and that is to reduce reliance on foreign pilots/staff.


Where’s your source for that auto land statistic? And why is Cathay reducing reliance on foreign staff a good thing? It’s foreign staff that created and sustained Cathay’s reputation all these years.

I can only think off one specific historic case where single pilot operations during cruise with high level automation on modern aircraft would have caused a major problem


What your forgetting is all the times a pilot makes a suggestion to do something inappropriate, out of inexperience or ignorance, and a more senior pilot on the flight deck says “we won’t be doing that for this reason”. And the junior pilot says “oh OK didn’t know that” and the flight carries on uneventfully. Go to single pilot and you’ve removed that layer of safety.

That probably happens multiple times per day worldwide yet never makes a newspaper, an incident report, even a company report. There’s far more to aviation safety than the few incidents that attract attention.
 
downdata
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:37 am

skipness1E wrote:
As Jon Stewart said this week, science is very clever but just because science can do something doesn't mean it should.


Oh please. 100 years ago people didn’t believe heavier than air flight was possible. Maybe we should have stayed grounded all this time.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:43 am

downdata wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
As Jon Stewart said this week, science is very clever but just because science can do something doesn't mean it should.


Oh please. 100 years ago people didn’t believe heavier than air flight was possible. Maybe we should have stayed grounded all this time.


Nobody is saying anything of the sort - do try to keep up.
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:41 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
What your forgetting is all the times a pilot makes a suggestion to do something inappropriate, out of inexperience or ignorance, and a more senior pilot on the flight deck says “we won’t be doing that for this reason”. And the junior pilot says “oh OK didn’t know that” and the flight carries on uneventfully. Go to single pilot and you’ve removed that layer of safety.

That probably happens multiple times per day worldwide yet never makes a newspaper, an incident report, even a company report. There’s far more to aviation safety than the few incidents that attract attention.

We're not talking about single pilot from takeoff to landing...

Aaron747 wrote:
Nobody is saying anything of the sort - do try to keep up.

I have kept up and I also get the "if man were meant to fly he'd have wings" vibe from some of the posts here, not to mention a strong whiff of protectionism and careerism.
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Aaron747
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
What your forgetting is all the times a pilot makes a suggestion to do something inappropriate, out of inexperience or ignorance, and a more senior pilot on the flight deck says “we won’t be doing that for this reason”. And the junior pilot says “oh OK didn’t know that” and the flight carries on uneventfully. Go to single pilot and you’ve removed that layer of safety.

That probably happens multiple times per day worldwide yet never makes a newspaper, an incident report, even a company report. There’s far more to aviation safety than the few incidents that attract attention.

We're not talking about single pilot from takeoff to landing...

Aaron747 wrote:
Nobody is saying anything of the sort - do try to keep up.

I have kept up and I also get the "if man were meant to fly he'd have wings" vibe from some of the posts here, not to mention a strong whiff of protectionism and careerism.


Yes there's a little of that, but the comment I responded to was making it out as posters have said there shouldn't be an industry at all - let's pack it all in. It's a major exaggeration. Whether there is some careerism or not, pilots are a major stakeholder group to be heard in the discussions around these proposals - their observations and experiences with regard to augmented work patterns and fatigue effects are relevant to many points raised.
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:21 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Yes there's a little of that, but the comment I responded to was making it out as posters have said there shouldn't be an industry at all - let's pack it all in. It's a major exaggeration. Whether there is some careerism or not, pilots are a major stakeholder group to be heard in the discussions around these proposals - their observations and experiences with regard to augmented work patterns and fatigue effects are relevant to many points raised.

Thanks for the excellent post. There are a lot of extremes being voiced here, from "it will never happen" to "it is inevitable". It's hard to find the middle ground. I think you are doing a good job at it. There definitely are a lot of stakeholders and real world considerations to be worked through. As above maybe Airbus, EASA and CX are communicating their status and goals to try to engage all the stakeholders as early as they can in the process they hope will eventually result in approval and adoption.
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zeke
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:39 pm

downdata wrote:
Oh please. 100 years ago people didn’t believe heavier than air flight was possible. Maybe we should have stayed grounded all this time.


First manned heaver than air flight happened around 240 years ago, world war 1 finished over 100 years ago where fighter, transport, resonance, and bomber aircraft were used.

Aaron747 wrote:
Whether there is some careerism or not, pilots are a major stakeholder group to be heard in the discussions around these proposals - their observations and experiences with regard to augmented work patterns and fatigue effects are relevant to many points raised.


There is enough scientific data around already on the correlation of cognitive psychomotor performance decrease to a level equivalent to the performance deficit observed proscribed level of alcohol intoxication. We wouldn't dream of letting a pilot fly intoxicated because of the impairment it causes, however people are advocating for greater fatigue levels, ie equivalate to higher intoxication levels. In industries outside aviation like paramedics they complete fatigue assessments prior to starting a shift, and if they are fatigued their shift is cancelled. Long haul flying involves irregular shift work, where pilots have no control over enroute weather, no control over events at layover hotels etc. Pilots also have lives, like anyone else we equally get stressed by life events, and that impacts fatigue.

At the end of the day this is a productivity increase, passengers will not get cheaper tickets, and pilots wont get more pay, the profits will be kept by the airlines. The airlines will not care if this increases long term illness rates, they will dispose of the pilots well before then. Similar was attempted in the middle east where they attempted not to count bunk time as flight time to increase the number of hours a year flown. That got revered when the EU suggested they would get blacklisted if the practice was not reversed, which it was.
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Noshow
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:15 pm

Oh please. 100 years ago people didn’t believe heavier than air flight was possible.


The debate is not about opposing progress but about opposing eroding flight safety. Flight safety that has matured to today's high level only after many brutal lessons were learned. Keeping things redundant is one of them.
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:15 pm

Noshow wrote:
Oh please. 100 years ago people didn’t believe heavier than air flight was possible.

The debate is not about opposing progress but about opposing eroding flight safety. Flight safety that has matured to today's high level only after many brutal lessons were learned. Keeping things redundant is one of them.

Consider ETOPS. We have two less engines so redundancy is eroded yet regulators are okay with saying flight safety is not eroded. Regulators are also saying single pilot operation will not happen till they are convinced flight safety is not being eroded. A lot to think about, no?
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:29 pm

Two is the absolute minimum. Two engines, at least two systems of everything like hydraulics and generators. One pilot is not enough for an airliner. At least two are needed and often more than two are on duty for safety reasons.

This flight crew reduction seems to be totally heading in the wrong direction. I am really curious if this "study" will prove that the same safety level can be maintained in all situations possible and what additional measures are required?
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:48 pm

Noshow wrote:
Two is the absolute minimum. Two engines, at least two systems of everything like hydraulics and generators. One pilot is not enough for an airliner. At least two are needed and often more than two are on duty for safety reasons.

This flight crew reduction seems to be totally heading in the wrong direction. I am really curious if this "study" will prove that the same safety level can be maintained in all situations possible and what additional measures are required?

Indeed it is an interesting topic and best explored without deciding in advance about rightness or wrongness.

The article suggests the standard being applied is the automation needs to handle anything that can happen for 15 minutes, but doesn't say where this standard is coming from.

Presumably this allows the pilot on duty to suffer incapacitation, the system to notice the lack of activity and alert the resting pilot, and the resting pilot to achieve the desired wakefulness to deal with the problem.
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:59 pm

zeke wrote:
downdata wrote:
Oh please. 100 years ago people didn’t believe heavier than air flight was possible. Maybe we should have stayed grounded all this time.


First manned heaver than air flight happened around 240 years ago, world war 1 finished over 100 years ago where fighter, transport, resonance, and bomber aircraft were used.

Aaron747 wrote:
Whether there is some careerism or not, pilots are a major stakeholder group to be heard in the discussions around these proposals - their observations and experiences with regard to augmented work patterns and fatigue effects are relevant to many points raised.


There is enough scientific data around already on the correlation of cognitive psychomotor performance decrease to a level equivalent to the performance deficit observed proscribed level of alcohol intoxication. We wouldn't dream of letting a pilot fly intoxicated because of the impairment it causes, however people are advocating for greater fatigue levels, ie equivalate to higher intoxication levels. In industries outside aviation like paramedics they complete fatigue assessments prior to starting a shift, and if they are fatigued their shift is cancelled. Long haul flying involves irregular shift work, where pilots have no control over enroute weather, no control over events at layover hotels etc. Pilots also have lives, like anyone else we equally get stressed by life events, and that impacts fatigue.

At the end of the day this is a productivity increase, passengers will not get cheaper tickets, and pilots wont get more pay, the profits will be kept by the airlines. The airlines will not care if this increases long term illness rates, they will dispose of the pilots well before then. Similar was attempted in the middle east where they attempted not to count bunk time as flight time to increase the number of hours a year flown. That got revered when the EU suggested they would get blacklisted if the practice was not reversed, which it was.


I haven’t read the entire topic and this will be my only reply, but let’s take your single fatigued pilot and throw in some very complex problem, say an engine failure that takes out many other things. This remaining pilot has to deal with an avalanche of things happening. How is his workload then? Even if a cabin crew or a resting pilot comes to help out, it’s still not the same is it? The resting pilot still has to be brought in , and that’s time taken.

I deal with much less critical stuff in my work and the tricky things that involve a clean switch over from one system to another I always have someone else with me to confirm /double check what I’m doing. I’m a human, I get tired and I can make mistakes. Not all the time, very rarely. But that’s why I have someone else there to cross check what I’m doing.

I don’t like this idea.
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:37 pm

Noshow wrote:
Two is the absolute minimum. Two engines, at least two systems of everything like hydraulics and generators. One pilot is not enough for an airliner. At least two are needed and often more than two are on duty for safety reasons.


Not really. There used to be four engines, then three systems (in case of many systems). Now we say two. Know why? Because something IT calls MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) gets better with every generation of tools we make. I consider it quite possible that in time, one will be enough. If average probability is lower than two concurrent engine failures nowadays, why not? Modern engines now fail at rate of approx 1 in a million hours. It has never been so high, and actually means one failure on every fourth plane, flying 15 hrs/day for 50 years. Or 200 years for any of these to have an engine failure.

If the numbers are like this for an engine, I'd say it's not now, and likely not in few years. But in 30, 40 or maybe 50 years? Why not?

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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:57 pm

The point is more than one.

Sure, aircraft can fly with one or no pilot or on one engine but this is not what made commercial aviation safe. This is the alarming aspect to me: Wanting to reduce safety to save money. I hope we don't go this route.
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 9:10 pm

Lots of times there’s only one pilot up the front for sustained periods of time. I’ve been a passenger on two-crew 747s to New York where I’ve been friends with the first officer and they’ve come back and hung out in the galley for 20 mins. My good buddy’s first flight on the 777 was to Mauritius which is a three person crew trip, and still managed to be alone for about half an hour, one in the bunk and the other guy had his wife onboard or similar and was down the back socialising. And this was his first ever sector on a new type (and his first widebody). Reality is, it’s routine for a long haul pilot to be up there alone.
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 9:42 pm

Safety and cost are weighed against each other for each new aircraft. Even outside of aviation, it's a tradeoff we make every day.

Why do most FBW aircraft have triple-redundant computers and not two or four - even though there are some that have four? Why is a single set of landing gear enough, or a single thrust lever for each engine? Why do some have two AoA sensors when other aircraft have three?

Usually, higher redundancy is safer. But you don't need to make it as safe as possible, only as safe as necessary.

If fatigue or stomach aches turn out to be a large enough concern for the regulators, this will not be certified. Yet, Airbus seems to have an idea how to mitigate those problems and it likely involves changes to both systems and procedures.
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 9:52 pm

cedarjet wrote:
Lots of times there’s only one pilot up the front for sustained periods of time. I’ve been a passenger on two-crew 747s to New York where I’ve been friends with the first officer and they’ve come back and hung out in the galley for 20 mins. My good buddy’s first flight on the 777 was to Mauritius which is a three person crew trip, and still managed to be alone for about half an hour, one in the bunk and the other guy had his wife onboard or similar and was down the back socialising. And this was his first ever sector on a new type (and his first widebody). Reality is, it’s routine for a long haul pilot to be up there alone.


What you are describing there would be a violation where I work and subject to instant dismissal. Like I described above at all times we have two crew on the flight deck, if a pilot goes to take a toilet break, a cabin crew member is on in the flight deck.

As far as I am aware the same applies in the US

“ In the United States, a flight attendant is supposed to remain in the cockpit with a pilot if one pilot leaves briefly for food or the lavatory. The Air Line Pilots Association issued a statement saying "every airline in the United States has procedures designed to ensure that there is never a situation where a pilot is left alone in the cockpit."

From https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/201 ... /70481560/
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:04 pm

gloom wrote:
Not really. There used to be four engines, then three systems (in case of many systems). Now we say two. Know why?


On airliners it’s still normally 3+ levels of redundancy, how they achieve that redundancy is not obvious at first inspection. Hydraulics for example on the A350 is similar to the A320, two engine driven systems and an electrically powered system (self contained electrically powered hydraulic actuators).
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:36 am

Revelation wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
What your forgetting is all the times a pilot makes a suggestion to do something inappropriate, out of inexperience or ignorance, and a more senior pilot on the flight deck says “we won’t be doing that for this reason”. And the junior pilot says “oh OK didn’t know that” and the flight carries on uneventfully. Go to single pilot and you’ve removed that layer of safety.

That probably happens multiple times per day worldwide yet never makes a newspaper, an incident report, even a company report. There’s far more to aviation safety than the few incidents that attract attention.


We're not talking about single pilot from takeoff to landing...


And neither was I. All those incidents I’m thinking of would refer to an incident in cruise on a long haul flight.

cedarjet wrote:
Lots of times there’s only one pilot up the front for sustained periods of time. I’ve been a passenger on two-crew 747s to New York where I’ve been friends with the first officer and they’ve come back and hung out in the galley for 20 mins. My good buddy’s first flight on the 777 was to Mauritius which is a three person crew trip, and still managed to be alone for about half an hour, one in the bunk and the other guy had his wife onboard or similar and was down the back socialising. And this was his first ever sector on a new type (and his first widebody). Reality is, it’s routine for a long haul pilot to be up there alone.


Yeah it’s not uncommon to go back and have a leg stretch and stand up in a well lit environment and have a quick chat. It’s about maintaining physical and emotional health.

But the difference is that pilot is awake and cognitively functioning, so if a situation arises the pilot in watch can cal the other pilot back and they’ll be there in seconds, ready to deal with that situation.

A pilot in the bunk in deep sleep is 30mins-1hr away from being cognitive and functioning.

There also cruise situations where two pilots would be on duty, crossing a line of weather, high traffic environment, over high terrain where depressurisation escape procedures are in force, inflight rerouting and weather/fuel assessment.

This thread is full of people saying how easy it is to automate someone’s job without really knowing the details of that job. It’s more than being there for dire emergencies, you’d be surprised at the amount of work that needs to be performed on a relatively quiet long haul flight cruise portion.

There’s another factor as well everyone who has never done this job is missing, albeit I wouldn’t say it’s the most important factor. The cruise is where “the knowledge” is shared, stories are swapped, discussion of incidents is had, advice given. The learning process for a junior pilot is far more than in a simulator, put them up there alone and that disappears. There is a human factor that most posters here are missing, the moulding process for a truly competent pilot is dependent on good oversight and mentoring. You can’t solely create a good pilot by technical means, nor replace their experience by technical means.

It’s easy to understand the technical aspects of flying, which is why we’re discussing MTBF, EDTO redundancy, Autoflight control systems etc. But the human aspect is more difficult to understand especially if you aren’t in the career.
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:34 am

Going down to one pilot means "they" think that computers are ready to handle commercial passenger flights today. Because if the one pilot remaining is out of service, say the cockpit window broke and he got hit by fragments, there must be a system in place that can do it. Not an autopilot but something that handles an aircraft with maybe engine out, electrical fires in severe weather and such. We are not there for quite some time.
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:39 am

Noshow wrote:
Going down to one pilot means "they" think that computers are ready to handle commercial passenger flights today. Because if the one pilot remaining is out of service, say the cockpit window broke and he got hit by fragments, there must be a system in place that can do it. Not an autopilot but something that handles an aircraft with maybe engine out, electrical fires in severe weather and such. We are not there for quite some time.


That is similar to what I raised earlier in the thread when someone claimed the A350 software can do anything pilots can do.

If Airbus’s chief test pilot opined that all pilots need to be familiar with unusual conditions and operating outside of normal law in cruise, then that automatically suggests the software is not the end-all, be-all at this point in time.
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:52 am

This "study" is opening a can of worms. And I hope the parties promoting this get in serious hot water by the aviation authorities. It's a bit like going backt to the pre-MAX situation and pretending we have not learned anything since then.

One far day we might indeed have automated aircraft or maybe slaved freighters flying in formation with a conventionally manned passenger airliner but this is not the moment now.
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:01 am

Noshow wrote:
Going down to one pilot means "they" think that computers are ready to handle commercial passenger flights today. Because if the one pilot remaining is out of service, say the cockpit window broke and he got hit by fragments, there must be a system in place that can do it. Not an autopilot but something that handles an aircraft with maybe engine out, electrical fires in severe weather and such. We are not there for quite some time.


In all likelyhood: that type of weather would require both pilots on the flight deck anyway.

I think safety fears are a bit overblown here. We´re talking about the intention to allow for single pilot operations in cruise, not take-off or landing. And one can be sure that adverse weather conditions, unruly pax etc. will all require the flight deck to be fully manned for that phase of the flight. Can something happen? Yes. Is the likelyhood high? No. Is the likelyhood low enough for regulators to allow such a change in legislation? Maybe. Adn they are the most competent ones to decide what is workable and acceptable, and what not.

I´m certainly no fied on compromising HSE but without having tried it there is little chance to either reject or accept it. Rejecting it withouth factual grounds will always mean it coming back on the plate again. Not every technological advance has become part of our daily lives.

And probably some food for though: we have 700 m long high speed trains with 100s of pax being driven 200 mph per hour with a single driver. And we´ve tank trucks with 25,000 ltr of highly flammbable fuel driven through cities with one driver only. Still we don´t really hear about accidents of these transports each and every day. Is this because risk management has become better? Is this because technology has become better? Or infrastructure having been improved? Or combination of all?
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:26 am

Noshow wrote:
I am really curious if this "study" will prove that the same safety level can be maintained in all situations possible and what additional measures are required?


That seems to be the whole point, no? What makes it a "study" rather than a normal study?

Noshow wrote:
This "study" is opening a can of worms. And I hope the parties promoting this get in serious hot water by the aviation authorities. It's a bit like going backt to the pre-MAX situation and pretending we have not learned anything since then.


What worms are in your can that you're worried about being opened?

Why would anyone get in serious hot water for exploring a possible move to single pilot cruise operations?

Personally, I think the chances of this being in place by 2025 are pretty slim. But, at some point, someone, somewhere will take that first step on that journey. I'm very confident that the next generation of planes from Airbus and Boeing will fully support single-pilot operation.
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:56 am

I had tried to elaborate on that above. A "study" might very well be some plan with a fixed desired result. Possibly motivated by cost pressure. To me it looks more like expecting very long bureaucratic processes that trigger beginning the administrative certification part way too early before the mature technology is available, to be finally ready "on time" or similar.

We are now in the concept and pre-definition phase for the next airliner cockpit generations and going single pilot is the wet dream of some cost strategists. There should be a big public debate of what is intended before strategic decisions are made.

Interestingly some formerly automated taxi drone concepts move back to using manned pilots for control these days.
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:39 am

Noshow wrote:
I had tried to elaborate on that above. A "study" might very well be some plan with a fixed desired result. Possibly motivated by cost pressure. To me it looks more like expecting very long bureaucratic processes that trigger beginning the administrative certification part way too early before the mature technology is available, to be finally ready "on time" or similar.

We are now in the concept and pre-definition phase for the next airliner cockpit generations and going single pilot is the wet dream of some cost strategists. There should be a big public debate of what is intended before strategic decisions are made.

Interestingly some formerly automated taxi drone concepts move back to using manned pilots for control these days.

Effectively, you're guilty in prejudice thing as well over here. None of us have seen internal documents and worksheets, none of us built failure trees beyond some anecdotal evidence. Yet you already made your mind and assume others are acting in bad faith..
 
Noshow
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:27 am

I reserve the right to come to my own conclusions my friend. I am guilty of nothing. As a passenger I will not book Tesla-Flights.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:51 am

I'm wondering in the case of an emergency, can the crew ask if there are passengers on board who know how to fly a plane? Remember that UA incident several years ago?
 
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:54 am

Noshow wrote:
I reserve the right to come to my own conclusions my friend. I am guilty of nothing. As a passenger I will not book Tesla-Flights.

"Feel free to stay at home" is a popular response on this forum.
By the way, did you have your place inspected by a properly trained building inspector lately? Of course, as a safety minded person, you should get at least two independent opinions. That would bring much more safety margin into the life compared to disputing opinion of professionals who are ways more qualified compared to an average buildings inspector or contractor
 
Heinkel
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:26 pm

zeke wrote:
“ In the United States, a flight attendant is supposed to remain in the cockpit with a pilot if one pilot leaves briefly for food or the lavatory. The Air Line Pilots Association issued a statement saying "every airline in the United States has procedures designed to ensure that there is never a situation where a pilot is left alone in the cockpit."


Is there an official list, what the FA has to do and may do during the time in the cockpit?

What is the FA allowed to do, other than "being just there". Is the FA allowed to touch any controls? Is the FA allowed to interfere with the pilot?

Or is the FA only there to tell the pilot not to commit suicide and only allowed to cry "HELP!" if something goes wrong?

I think this "always a second person (FA) in the cockpit" rule is just theatre to soothe the flying public.

Is there any known case, that the FA in the cockpit during a single pilot phase had to do anything and saved the day?
 
Heinkel
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Re: CX Working With Airbus on Single-Pilot System for A350 With 2025 EIS

Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:36 pm

Noshow wrote:
I reserve the right to come to my own conclusions my friend. I am guilty of nothing. As a passenger I will not book Tesla-Flights.


You are entitled you your opinion. Do what you want.

But keep in mind, that many people think different. And times do change. And technologies, too. Time goes on.

Sooner or later the a/c will fly without a human pilot. The two guys in the cockpit are the reason for so many crashes. It is pure statistics.

And insurance premiuims have to be paid calculated from statistics. May be in a while, you have to pay more insurance premuim, when you operate an airliner with human pilots.

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