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DL757NYC
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:04 pm

I don’t think retiring the 777 was the smartest move.
 
Lootess
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:08 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
I don’t think retiring the 777 was the smartest move.


It was fine, they took delivery of two A359s last year, and now look to be wanting more, sooner.
 
9252fly
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 1:35 am

DL757NYC wrote:
I don’t think retiring the 777 was the smartest move.


There are trade-offs, DL will save on fuel burn, especially helpful now with the upward trend in pricing.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:15 am

DL757NYC wrote:
I don’t think retiring the 777 was the smartest move.

You don't keep a fleet type - and a small, very senior pilot group - for one or two routes. DL could block twenty seats forever on a JNB-ATL A350 and still come out way ahead.
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:29 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
I don’t think retiring the 777 was the smartest move.

You don't keep a fleet type - and a small, very senior pilot group - for one or two routes. DL could block twenty seats forever on a JNB-ATL A350 and still come out way ahead.



I would almost guarantee that DL will be looking for used wide bodies . The 777 didn’t serve one or two routes. It was a versatile aircraft. It would fly Asia to the West Coast then to let’s say JFK then to TLV. Now travel is roaring back. Delta didn’t have much slack in their wide body fleet pre covidfff ft They might save on fuel with the 350’s however if Delta needs more wide bodies there are plenty of 777’s that could be had for a fraction of a new jet. And when did the 777 become this gas guzzler. Delta and I’m sure other airlines are scrambling to fill staffing and equipment needs. Passenger counts at airports are approaching pre COVID levels.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:31 am

DL757NYC wrote:
I would almost guarantee that DL will be looking for used wide bodies.

I'd just hope you're not foolish enough to ever put money behind such a "guarantee".... because used widebodies is something DL's hardly ever been interested in, throughout its history.

Like any airline, they've sniffed around and done their due diligence. But as stated several times before, it's been a quarter of a century since the last time they got one and put it into revenue pax service.

If widebody capacity meant so much to them, they still have A339s (which BTW, now offer as much range as a 744, if you desire them to) set for delivery--- and in addition to having upgraded 11 of their formerly-268Tonne A359s to 275 tonne w/v capability; they have their four 280Tonne A359s which have the capability to do essentially anything the 772LRs would've done, hence this thread.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
777Mech
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:34 am

LAX772LR wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
I would almost guarantee that DL will be looking for used wide bodies.

I'd just hope you're not foolish enough to ever put money behind such a "guarantee".... because used widebodies is something DL's hardly ever been interested in, throughout its history. Like any airline, they've sniffed around and done their due diligence. But as stated several times before, it's been a quarter of a century since the last time they got one and put it into revenue pax service.

If widebody capacity meant so much to them, they still have A339s (which BTW, have as much range as a 744, if you want them to) set for delivery, and in addition to their four 280Tonne A359s, have upgraded 11 of their formerly-268Tonne A359s to 275 tonne w/v capability.


They will however, be getting A350s from LATAM next year.

As for getting secondhand 777s? It's not going to happen. The last 777 they owned was just sold to Mammoth last week, so if they had any intentions of bringing the 777 back, it's gone.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:36 am

DL757NYC wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
I don’t think retiring the 777 was the smartest move.

You don't keep a fleet type - and a small, very senior pilot group - for one or two routes. DL could block twenty seats forever on a JNB-ATL A350 and still come out way ahead.



I would almost guarantee that DL will be looking for used wide bodies . The 777 didn’t serve one or two routes. It was a versatile aircraft. It would fly Asia to the West Coast then to let’s say JFK then to TLV. Now travel is roaring back. Delta didn’t have much slack in their wide body fleet pre covidfff ft They might save on fuel with the 350’s however if Delta needs more wide bodies there are plenty of 777’s that could be had for a fraction of a new jet. And when did the 777 become this gas guzzler. Delta and I’m sure other airlines are scrambling to fill staffing and equipment needs. Passenger counts at airports are approaching pre COVID levels.


Long haul flights rely disproportionately on premium fares for success. Yes, leisure travel is “roaring back,” but business travel isn’t and ultimately average fares will be finish near historic lows. Even WN is sticking to the idea that the next several years will continue to be a low-fare environment.

DL was aware of this when they retired the 777. It was not a miscalculation; teams of dozens employees with vast experience and fancy degrees ran oodles of scenarios using multiple variables and concluded it was in DL’s best interest to retire the 777 now. We’re a lot further from returning to 2019 than this forum wants to believe.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:44 am

777Mech wrote:
They will however, be getting A350s from LATAM next year.

Nope. DL paid $60M+ to get out of that, more than a year ago.

The four used aircraft will not be acquired. 10 new A350s straight from Airbus (that were slotted for LATAM, but will instead of delivered factory fresh to DL) will.
 
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Polot
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:05 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
I don’t think retiring the 777 was the smartest move.

You don't keep a fleet type - and a small, very senior pilot group - for one or two routes. DL could block twenty seats forever on a JNB-ATL A350 and still come out way ahead.

Seniority has nothing to do with it. Those pilots are still senior and still at DL unless they quit or retired.
 
jayunited
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:56 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Long haul flights rely disproportionately on premium fares for success. Yes, leisure travel is “roaring back,” but business travel isn’t and ultimately average fares will be finish near historic lows. Even WN is sticking to the idea that the next several years will continue to be a low-fare environment.

DL was aware of this when they retired the 777. It was not a miscalculation; teams of dozens employees with vast experience and fancy degrees ran oodles of scenarios using multiple variables and concluded it was in DL’s best interest to retire the 777 now. We’re a lot further from returning to 2019 than this forum wants to believe.


I think the unanswered question is this; will business and international long haul travel come "roaring back" like we've seen in both the domestic and short haul markets as restrictions are lifted, boarder reopen and more people are vaccinated?

I think it is far to early to know if a miscalculation was made or not. If we look at the domestic and short haul international markets AA, DL, UA and WN all miscalculated how quickly the leisure market would recover.

Could Delta have placed their 777 fleet into long term storage similar to what United did with our 764s? I don't know the answer to that question and I can't speak for DL. I do know in UA's case prior to the PW 777s being grounded UA had no plans on pulling the 764s out of storage before spring or even summer of 2022. Scott Kirby felt like there was no reason to make a hasty decision until we had a clearer picture of how the long haul international and business travel would recover. He felt like long term storage was the best answer and that decision just so happen to be the right one as United now needs some of our 764s to cover for our PW 777s
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 1:11 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Heavierthanair wrote:
G'day

With the Delta A350 apparently struggling to make JNB-ATL how much of a payload hit is the UA 787 taking? Anyone out there with payload range comparisons for this trip?

Thanks and Cheers

Peter


For a true comparison I would suggest waiting until international travel returns to normal. Right now since the launch UA has been averaging between 193-210 passengers on our 787s out of JNB this is out of a total of 257 seats (total seat count on Polaris equip 789s is different from 789s with the diamond seats). Also for now we are able to carry cargo out of JNB as well. But there are several factors you need to consider first it is winter in South Africa and secondly like I already pointed out with international restrictions which are having an impact on demand.

Looking at the TOW or TOG over the past 7 days UA's TOW is averaging around 545,600. The 789s UA utilizes on this route have a max TOW of 561,500.

For now United isn't pushing these 789s to there limit out of JNB but lets wait until it's summer in the southern hemisphere I have a feeling at the very least we won't be carrying any cargo out of JNB.


Also EWR-JNB is about 400 nm shorter flight than ATL-JNB. That is roughly 5 tons less fuel UA's 789's have to carry versus the DL flight out of ATL.


I believe that could be a factor. EWR-JNB is shorter than ATL-JNB. The original A350 performance for Delta isn’t apples to apples comparison to United’s 787-9s so it will be interesting to see how the airplane performs and if there are ever fuel stops to either EWR or ATL
 
Agent
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:54 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
Iv been right on max tire speed in the 787. To say that tire speed is not an issue is false.

On a hot day in DEN Iv been well below MTOW and right on Max tire speed.


I am not sure i got you right, but we are discussing JNB and not DEN? And about the A350 and not the B787?

The limits i stated above are right from the A350 Performance Module out of JNB, so?

Have fun!
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:21 pm

Agent wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Iv been right on max tire speed in the 787. To say that tire speed is not an issue is false.

On a hot day in DEN Iv been well below MTOW and right on Max tire speed.


I am not sure i got you right, but we are discussing JNB and not DEN? And about the A350 and not the B787?

The limits i stated above are right from the A350 Performance Module out of JNB, so?

Have fun!


What are the tire speeds of the A350
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:26 pm

jayunited wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
Long haul flights rely disproportionately on premium fares for success. Yes, leisure travel is “roaring back,” but business travel isn’t and ultimately average fares will be finish near historic lows. Even WN is sticking to the idea that the next several years will continue to be a low-fare environment.

DL was aware of this when they retired the 777. It was not a miscalculation; teams of dozens employees with vast experience and fancy degrees ran oodles of scenarios using multiple variables and concluded it was in DL’s best interest to retire the 777 now. We’re a lot further from returning to 2019 than this forum wants to believe.


I think the unanswered question is this; will business and international long haul travel come "roaring back" like we've seen in both the domestic and short haul markets as restrictions are lifted, boarder reopen and more people are vaccinated?

I think it is far to early to know if a miscalculation was made or not. If we look at the domestic and short haul international markets AA, DL, UA and WN all miscalculated how quickly the leisure market would recover.

Could Delta have placed their 777 fleet into long term storage similar to what United did with our 764s? I don't know the answer to that question and I can't speak for DL. I do know in UA's case prior to the PW 777s being grounded UA had no plans on pulling the 764s out of storage before spring or even summer of 2022. Scott Kirby felt like there was no reason to make a hasty decision until we had a clearer picture of how the long haul international and business travel would recover. He felt like long term storage was the best answer and that decision just so happen to be the right one as United now needs some of our 764s to cover for our PW 777s


Domestic traffic came “roaring back” during the spring, but it’s probable that both peak summer passenger volumes and RASM will fall well short of industry expectations. The Journal did a pretty good write up on it recently — even with high gas prices, more people are choosing to travel by car to local destinations. Part of this is due to high car rental prices. With new vehicle shortages not expected to correct itself for awhile (resulting in new cars selling above MSRP), that’s not going to change anytime soon. And it will be a limiting factor for both business and lesiure travel.

Alas, I think the recovery of both the domestic and international markets is exaggerated on here. We’re probably several years away from seeing the long-haul markets, which rely on corporate travel revenues, mostly recover. And I’d be surprised if DL didn’t take the depressed value of widebodies into consideration, knowing that it could pick up some late mode A330 for cheap. We will see.
 
Agent
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:26 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
Agent wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Iv been right on max tire speed in the 787. To say that tire speed is not an issue is false.

On a hot day in DEN Iv been well below MTOW and right on Max tire speed.


I am not sure i got you right, but we are discussing JNB and not DEN? And about the A350 and not the B787?

The limits i stated above are right from the A350 Performance Module out of JNB, so?

Have fun!


What are the tire speeds of the A350


Max tire speed is 204kts GS.
VR in JNB in this conditions around 165-170kts.
 
skystar767
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:55 pm

DL is back to what it was once only thinking ATL. Anderson was the right man for that company not the southern boy they have now. DL needed those 787-9. They could have done JNB and CPT from JFK daily. SAA is out the picture. Smh
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:07 pm

Agent wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Agent wrote:

I am not sure i got you right, but we are discussing JNB and not DEN? And about the A350 and not the B787?

The limits i stated above are right from the A350 Performance Module out of JNB, so?

Have fun!


What are the tire speeds of the A350


Max tire speed is 204kts GS.
VR in JNB in this conditions around 165-170kts.


Exactly the same as a 787. So my comparison works on all levels.

It doesn’t matter what Vr is only GS matters. While I respect you reading from a book I have operational knowledge as a retired 787 Captain.
 
winginit
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:22 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
This thread reminds me of the infinite number of discussions we had on why the 359 couldn’t serve LAX-SYD, and that DL was so upset they were about to buy the 787 and toss the 359 to the curb.

Literally tens of thousands of hours went into those discussions. How quickly they were forgotten when DL scheduled the aircraft on the route, even though our resident TechOps expert / Starbucks bartista insisted the president of ops personally assured him it was impossible ...


The A350 was put on LAXSYD in what October 2020? We candidly have no idea if it can make it with a full payload, and we won't see full passenger paylaods on that flight for a year? ish?
Last edited by winginit on Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:23 pm

skystar767 wrote:
DL is back to what it was once only thinking ATL. Anderson was the right man for that company not the southern boy they have now. DL needed those 787-9. They could have done JNB and CPT from JFK daily. SAA is out the picture. Smh

Literally nothing that you just wrote makes sense.

    ATL is by far its largest hub, so it sort of stands to reason that their primary consideration would be regarding there, particularly in a downturned market.

    Ed Bastian is from New York, so not exactly sure what "southern boy" you're referring to.

    DL never had 789s on order, so also not sure what "those 787-9" you're referring to. That said, DL had (and continues to have) every opportunity to order 787s, and has thus far not seen reason to do so. If you have numbers to show why that's a mistake, I'd imagine they'd be interested to review them. :roll:

    DL has already scheduled a return of the entirety their JFK (and ATL, for that matter) African network. If they saw fit to add JNB or CPT from there, they could've done so; but there's no way they're going to give up the S.Florida connections to S.Africa to the European carriers, which is exactly what would happen if they transferred their flights to New York.

    There hasn't been all that much of a change in the NYC to S.Africa market: SA's large equipment to one gateway out, UA's medium equipment to two gateways in.
 
gloom
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:35 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
It doesn’t matter what Vr is only GS matters. While I respect you reading from a book I have operational knowledge as a retired 787 Captain.


Typical density altitude, temperature corrected for CPT would be around 7500ft for typical conditions when Delta departs (ISA+15, 5700ft pressure altitude). That means if Vr is 170kts IAS, GS would be around 196kts.
Still quite a way below max tire speed, even if we need to account for time between rotation and liftoff.

Cheers,
Adam
 
B757Forever
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:45 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
777Mech wrote:
They will however, be getting A350s from LATAM next year.

Nope. DL paid $60M+ to get out of that, more than a year ago.

The four used aircraft will not be acquired. 10 new A350s straight from Airbus (that were slotted for LATAM, but will instead of delivered factory fresh to DL) will.


LAX, there looks to be a new deal in the works with LATAM and the A350 aircraft. We may know details soon.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:51 pm

gloom wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
It doesn’t matter what Vr is only GS matters. While I respect you reading from a book I have operational knowledge as a retired 787 Captain.


Typical density altitude, temperature corrected for CPT would be around 7500ft for typical conditions when Delta departs (ISA+15, 5700ft pressure altitude). That means if Vr is 170kts IAS, GS would be around 196kts.
Still quite a way below max tire speed, even if we need to account for time between rotation and liftoff.

Cheers,
Adam


That’s about right and is that at MTOW.

For reference I texted a freind of mine who has flown JNB they took off at 548K and GS was 200kts. They probably couldn’t have done a full 561.5K without overspending the tires.
 
Boof02671
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:10 pm

B757Forever wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
777Mech wrote:
They will however, be getting A350s from LATAM next year.

Nope. DL paid $60M+ to get out of that, more than a year ago.

The four used aircraft will not be acquired. 10 new A350s straight from Airbus (that were slotted for LATAM, but will instead of delivered factory fresh to DL) will.


LAX, there looks to be a new deal in the works with LATAM and the A350 aircraft. We may know details soon.

LATAM had the leases terminated in bankruptcy, they didn’t own them, they were leased and returned to the leaseholder.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:35 pm

B757Forever wrote:
LAX, there looks to be a new deal in the works with LATAM and the A350 aircraft. We may know details soon.

How, when LATAM has already divested of their entire A350 fleet, most of which they didn't own in the first place?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:37 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
B757Forever wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Nope. DL paid $60M+ to get out of that, more than a year ago.

The four used aircraft will not be acquired. 10 new A350s straight from Airbus (that were slotted for LATAM, but will instead of delivered factory fresh to DL) will.


LAX, there looks to be a new deal in the works with LATAM and the A350 aircraft. We may know details soon.

LATAM had the leases terminated in bankruptcy, they didn’t own them, they were leased and returned to the leaseholder.

Ah, didn't see this.... but yeah, that's what I thought too. LATAM doesn't have A350s to give, so how could there be a "new deal" with them?
 
B757Forever
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:20 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
B757Forever wrote:

LAX, there looks to be a new deal in the works with LATAM and the A350 aircraft. We may know details soon.

LATAM had the leases terminated in bankruptcy, they didn’t own them, they were leased and returned to the leaseholder.

Ah, didn't see this.... but yeah, that's what I thought too. LATAM doesn't have A350s to give, so how could there be a "new deal" with them?


The stored former LATAM Brazil A350-941 aircraft are available. Apologies, my previous response was poorly worded.
 
Lootess
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:48 pm

I do sometimes think what would have it been like with the 788 on-property at Delta. It may have been worthwhile, would have easily displaced some 767 routes, and considering the pandemic allow the long-haul footprint to still hold just like UA EWR-JNB. Granted they would have gotten the early line frames, but that's not a big deal in the long-run, UA got them.

But here we are committed to the A339 for transpacific, and now likely transatlantic for awhile while they figure out how to backfill A359s if things continue to move upward.

Delta framed as taking the A359s off of LATAM but they were really leases, so they were going to take them over, and that might explain the penalty they originally paid. So they might have a deal upcoming with the guarantor.
Last edited by Lootess on Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Boof02671
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:49 pm

Seems Delta wasn’t honest about eliminating the CPT stop.

https://paxex.aero/delta-cape-town-south-africa-denied/

“ Delta first applied to the SADOT for the Johannesburg-Cape Town coterminalization authority in May 2020. There followed months of repeated requests by the carrier to secure its authority and further outreach by the U.S. Government in support of Delta’s application, which is consistent with the rights under the Agreement, which in fact allows for coterminalized services by carriers of both countries. However, on May 14, 2021, the SADOT informed the Department of its view that the Agreement “does not confer domestic coterminalization rights for designated airlines of both countries,” and that it intended to deny Delta’s application”
 
jagraham
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:51 pm

jayunited wrote:
Heavierthanair wrote:
G'day

With the Delta A350 apparently struggling to make JNB-ATL how much of a payload hit is the UA 787 taking? Anyone out there with payload range comparisons for this trip?

Thanks and Cheers

Peter


For a true comparison I would suggest waiting until international travel returns to normal. Right now since the launch UA has been averaging between 193-210 passengers on our 787s out of JNB this is out of a total of 257 seats (total seat count on Polaris equip 789s is different from 789s with the diamond seats). Also for now we are able to carry cargo out of JNB as well. But there are several factors you need to consider first it is winter in South Africa and secondly like I already pointed out with international restrictions which are having an impact on demand.

Looking at the TOW or TOG over the past 7 days UA's TOW is averaging around 545,600. The 789s UA utilizes on this route have a max TOW of 561,500.

For now United isn't pushing these 789s to there limit out of JNB but lets wait until it's summer in the southern hemisphere I have a feeling at the very least we won't be carrying any cargo out of JNB.


:thumbsup: :thumbsup:
 
Lootess
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:57 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
Seems Delta wasn’t honest about eliminating the CPT stop.

https://paxex.aero/delta-cape-town-south-africa-denied/

“ Delta first applied to the SADOT for the Johannesburg-Cape Town coterminalization authority in May 2020. There followed months of repeated requests by the carrier to secure its authority and further outreach by the U.S. Government in support of Delta’s application, which is consistent with the rights under the Agreement, which in fact allows for coterminalized services by carriers of both countries. However, on May 14, 2021, the SADOT informed the Department of its view that the Agreement “does not confer domestic coterminalization rights for designated airlines of both countries,” and that it intended to deny Delta’s application”


Technically Delta was in the DOT filing for re-instating the South Africa frequencies:

As a result of commercial, operational, and market developments making it feasible for Delta to operate a direct return routing of Atlanta-Johannesburg-Atlanta using 306-seat Airbus A350-900 aircraft, Delta no longer plans to operate the the triangle routing of Atlanta- Johannesburg-Cape Town-Atlanta. Delta plans to commence this new service pattern starting August 1, 2021, assuming no material changes occur in the travel restrictions imposed by either country due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1200
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:57 pm

Agent wrote:
gloom wrote:
Tire speed was the problem for 777, due to high weight and wing loading (significantly higher takeoff speed). Since 359 is quite a bit lighter, it is simply limited by TOW. Not quite sure if it's limited by takeoff run, or required climb gradient. However, the main reason is "hot and high", which makes up for both higher takeoff speeds, and lower acceleration.


It is limited by either obstacle or brake energy in JNB. Field length and tire speed are no factor.
A350 cannot takeoff with MTOW, 270t-ish should be possible, depending on temperature and PA.


77L was limited by obstacle / brake energy too. They got around it by using high speed tires. And having 110k lbs (sea level) thrust available
 
jagraham
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:59 pm

Lootess wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Seems Delta wasn’t honest about eliminating the CPT stop.

https://paxex.aero/delta-cape-town-south-africa-denied/

“ Delta first applied to the SADOT for the Johannesburg-Cape Town coterminalization authority in May 2020. There followed months of repeated requests by the carrier to secure its authority and further outreach by the U.S. Government in support of Delta’s application, which is consistent with the rights under the Agreement, which in fact allows for coterminalized services by carriers of both countries. However, on May 14, 2021, the SADOT informed the Department of its view that the Agreement “does not confer domestic coterminalization rights for designated airlines of both countries,” and that it intended to deny Delta’s application”


Technically Delta was in the DOT filing for re-instating the South Africa frequencies:

As a result of commercial, operational, and market developments making it feasible for Delta to operate a direct return routing of Atlanta-Johannesburg-Atlanta using 306-seat Airbus A350-900 aircraft, Delta no longer plans to operate the the triangle routing of Atlanta- Johannesburg-Cape Town-Atlanta. Delta plans to commence this new service pattern starting August 1, 2021, assuming no material changes occur in the travel restrictions imposed by either country due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.


Commercial, operational, and market developments (translate: DL does not expect the JNB - ATL flight to be fully loaded)
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:05 pm

Lootess wrote:
But here we are committed to the A339 for transpacific

Why are you saying that like it's a bad thing?

The newer A359s will offer the same range as a 744; with 3 different types of seat, and only 1/4th of them being middle-seats in Y.
What 787 configuration out there today can make the latter claim?



Lootess wrote:
Delta framed as taking the A359s off of LATAM but they were really leases, so they were going to take them over, and that might explain the penalty they originally paid.

No, the penalty was the contractual exit fee for DL to get out of taking 4 used A350s.
All of the incoming birds from the LATAM deal will instead be delivered brand-new to DL.



Boof02671 wrote:
Seems Delta wasn’t honest about eliminating the CPT stop.

How's that "dishonest"....?

From the time these flights were announced, to now, multiple things changed:
  • The airline received more 280tonne A359s
  • The airline wasn't granted co-Terminal status
  • Australia/China/India (SYD, BOM, and ATL-PVG being the other three routes exclusive to the 772LRs' capabilities) are all no-goes for US passengers right now.

It makes perfect sense that with unapproved authority, increased number of powerful aircraft, nowhere else requiring to send them.... that they dedicate them to JNB, and thus enable a rountrip nonstop.
 
meh130
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:24 pm

Is it possible some of DL's later A350s are more capable versions (higher MTOW, additional fuel, etc.)?
 
meh130
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:26 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
I would almost guarantee that DL will be looking for used wide bodies.

I'd just hope you're not foolish enough to ever put money behind such a "guarantee".... because used widebodies is something DL's hardly ever been interested in, throughout its history.

Like any airline, they've sniffed around and done their due diligence. But as stated several times before, it's been a quarter of a century since the last time they got one and put it into revenue pax service.

If widebody capacity meant so much to them, they still have A339s (which BTW, now offer as much range as a 744, if you desire them to) set for delivery--- and in addition to having upgraded 11 of their formerly-268Tonne A359s to 275 tonne w/v capability; they have their four 280Tonne A359s which have the capability to do essentially anything the 772LRs would've done, hence this thread.


Delta bought many used L-1011s, including a large number from post-bankrupt Eastern. Delta also purchased a handful of used 767s.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:27 pm

meh130 wrote:
Is it possible some of DL's later A350s are more capable versions (higher MTOW, additional fuel, etc.)?

DL's latter four A359s are the most capable standard versions available.

They've expressed zilch interest in the A359ULR, for the same reason that every airline other than SQ has turned it down: it sacrifices payload and cargo volume, while not offering anything (weight, wing twist, enhanced winglets) that standard A359s don't now have.


meh130 wrote:
Delta bought many used L-1011s, including a large number from post-bankrupt Eastern. Delta also purchased a handful of used 767s.

what do you think the "it's been a quarter century since" in the quoted sentence is referring to......?
 
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zeke
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:54 am

xcltflyboy wrote:
Or, is it just the 359's general capabilities?


Based upon todays weather the A359 would be limited to a takeoff of 270 tonnes out of JNB, trip fuel today to ATL would be around 95 tonnes (flight time of 16 hrs), using BNA as an alternate, contingency and final reserve total fuel load loaded would be around 103 tonnes, takeoff with 102.5 tonnes. That means ZFW would be limited to 167.5 tonnes, assuming their OEW is around 140 tonnes with catering loaded for this sector means payload available would be 27.5 tonnes, that would mean they would need to block off around 26 seats.

If it was flying to ERW it could go with all 301 seats filled because EWR is not as far as ATL, headwinds are slightly less, and the alternate airport is closer.

Cubsrule wrote:
I’ve not seen specific numbers for the 350, but generally the limiting factor out of JNB is tire speed.


LAX772LR wrote:
That said, the problem with JNB isn't range, it's tire speed-- you'll likely exceed your tire rating before you get off the ground.



CriticalPoint wrote:
Iv been right on max tire speed in the 787. To say that tire speed is not an issue is false.


Tyre speed is not an issue for the A359 out of JNB, using todays data for example V2 would be around 164 kts, which gives you a ground speed of 178 kts, a 26 kt buffer on the 204 kt limit.
 
Agent
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Tue Jun 22, 2021 4:34 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
Agent wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:

What are the tire speeds of the A350


Max tire speed is 204kts GS.
VR in JNB in this conditions around 165-170kts.


Exactly the same as a 787. So my comparison works on all levels.

It doesn’t matter what Vr is only GS matters. While I respect you reading from a book I have operational knowledge as a retired 787 Captain.


I should have been more precise. In the conditions prevailing in JNB when I did the calculation, there is a difference between TAS and CAS of about 20kts. That is, as others stated, far away from tire speed limit. So the GS is max 190kts.
No tire speed limit broken here. Brake energy limit is not easy to overcome, as tires with higher limits won’t help. There is one point where 6-wheel braked boogies are an advantage, but not in terms of weight. Airbus did an excellent job with the A350 wing.

Always a pleasure talking to professionals!
In fact I read my books, because that is what you should to from time to time as an Captain on the A350. I ve flown a couple of times recently to JNB. Hope that helps.
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 189
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:28 pm

zeke wrote:
xcltflyboy wrote:
Or, is it just the 359's general capabilities?


Based upon todays weather the A359 would be limited to a takeoff of 270 tonnes out of JNB, trip fuel today to ATL would be around 95 tonnes (flight time of 16 hrs), using BNA as an alternate, contingency and final reserve total fuel load loaded would be around 103 tonnes, takeoff with 102.5 tonnes. That means ZFW would be limited to 167.5 tonnes, assuming their OEW is around 140 tonnes with catering loaded for this sector means payload available would be 27.5 tonnes, that would mean they would need to block off around 26 seats.

If it was flying to ERW it could go with all 301 seats filled because EWR is not as far as ATL, headwinds are slightly less, and the alternate airport is closer.

Cubsrule wrote:
I’ve not seen specific numbers for the 350, but generally the limiting factor out of JNB is tire speed.


LAX772LR wrote:
That said, the problem with JNB isn't range, it's tire speed-- you'll likely exceed your tire rating before you get off the ground.



CriticalPoint wrote:
Iv been right on max tire speed in the 787. To say that tire speed is not an issue is false.


Tyre speed is not an issue for the A359 out of JNB, using todays data for example V2 would be around 164 kts, which gives you a ground speed of 178 kts, a 26 kt buffer on the 204 kt limit.

How much more payload could be carried using a closer alternate like BHM or GSP? They are 134 and 153 miles, respectively, from ATL vs. 214 for BNA. CHA is even closer but I'm not sure if it's a port of entry. GSP I know sees international *cargo* flights on a daily or near-daily basis so they should be equipped to manage international diversions.
 
777Mech
Posts: 1253
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:31 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
zeke wrote:
xcltflyboy wrote:
Or, is it just the 359's general capabilities?


Based upon todays weather the A359 would be limited to a takeoff of 270 tonnes out of JNB, trip fuel today to ATL would be around 95 tonnes (flight time of 16 hrs), using BNA as an alternate, contingency and final reserve total fuel load loaded would be around 103 tonnes, takeoff with 102.5 tonnes. That means ZFW would be limited to 167.5 tonnes, assuming their OEW is around 140 tonnes with catering loaded for this sector means payload available would be 27.5 tonnes, that would mean they would need to block off around 26 seats.

If it was flying to ERW it could go with all 301 seats filled because EWR is not as far as ATL, headwinds are slightly less, and the alternate airport is closer.

Cubsrule wrote:
I’ve not seen specific numbers for the 350, but generally the limiting factor out of JNB is tire speed.


LAX772LR wrote:
That said, the problem with JNB isn't range, it's tire speed-- you'll likely exceed your tire rating before you get off the ground.



CriticalPoint wrote:
Iv been right on max tire speed in the 787. To say that tire speed is not an issue is false.


Tyre speed is not an issue for the A359 out of JNB, using todays data for example V2 would be around 164 kts, which gives you a ground speed of 178 kts, a 26 kt buffer on the 204 kt limit.

How much more payload could be carried using a closer alternate like BHM or GSP? They are 134 and 153 miles, respectively, from ATL vs. 214 for BNA. CHA is even closer but I'm not sure if it's a port of entry. GSP I know sees international *cargo* flights on a daily or near-daily basis so they should be equipped to manage international diversions.


A majority of the time, GSP is the alternate if ATL is forecast to have weather.
 
Lootess
Posts: 695
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:23 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Lootess wrote:
But here we are committed to the A339 for transpacific

Why are you saying that like it's a bad thing?

The newer A359s will offer the same range as a 744; with 3 different types of seat, and only 1/4th of them being middle-seats in Y.
What 787 configuration out there today can make the latter claim?


I don't think it's a bad thing. 787 and A350 are just planes for different missions. I can immediately think of routes like ATL-STR, JFK-JNB that'd benefit immediately from 787s. But on better times, can absolutely see a DL A359 doing that route.


No, the penalty was the contractual exit fee for DL to get out of taking 4 used A350s.
All of the incoming birds from the LATAM deal will instead be delivered brand-new to DL.


I was mentioning those frames may still be in-play by the lessor, not from LATAM, but you are right they had an agreement and to break it cost them.


How's that "dishonest"....?

From the time these flights were announced, to now, multiple things changed:
  • The airline received more 280tonne A359s
  • The airline wasn't granted co-Terminal status
  • Australia/China/India (SYD, BOM, and ATL-PVG being the other three routes exclusive to the 772LRs' capabilities) are all no-goes for US passengers right now.

It makes perfect sense that with unapproved authority, increased number of powerful aircraft, nowhere else requiring to send them.... that they dedicate them to JNB, and thus enable a rountrip nonstop.


Taking the 280 tonnes certainly helped the long-term picture. Not surprising the DOT also denied SAA from co-terminals in US, in retaliation to the Delta treatment.

Out of all of those LAX-SYD should return to normal soonest.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3590
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:27 pm

zeke wrote:
xcltflyboy wrote:
Or, is it just the 359's general capabilities?


Based upon todays weather the A359 would be limited to a takeoff of 270 tonnes out of JNB, trip fuel today to ATL would be around 95 tonnes (flight time of 16 hrs), using BNA as an alternate, contingency and final reserve total fuel load loaded would be around 103 tonnes, takeoff with 102.5 tonnes. That means ZFW would be limited to 167.5 tonnes, assuming their OEW is around 140 tonnes with catering loaded for this sector means payload available would be 27.5 tonnes, that would mean they would need to block off around 26 seats.

If it was flying to ERW it could go with all 301 seats filled because EWR is not as far as ATL, headwinds are slightly less, and the alternate airport is closer.


I was not expecting this especially during the Southern Hemisphere's winter season. I thought surely DL's A359 would be able to take a full load in the winter and maybe block seats in the summer.

Are you saying if Delta were to switch this flight from ATL over to EWR they could go completely full out of JNB and still have ZFW remaining to carry cargo? That is something I don't think UA's 789s can do even in the winter I think the only reason we are carrying cargo is because we are not full.
 
jmscsc
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:17 pm

 
evanb
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:16 am

jmscsc wrote:


I find this a strange interpretation of the BASA by South Africa since SAA operated JNB-CPT-MIA-JNB for many years under the same agreement (it hasn't been changed since with the exception of additional frequencies which were added by an addendum, not amendment). I guess if Delta felt very strongly about this and was willing to take some time they could have pushed USDOT seek arbitration where they would likely win.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1200
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:19 am

DL757NYC wrote:
I don’t think retiring the 777 was the smartest move.


Even though I am a 777 fan, DL made a clear case for getting rid of the 777.

At 280t, the A359 only has limits on three routes; LAX-SYD (moderate), JFK-BOM (moderate to significant depending on India ATC, and the discussed JNB-ATL. For all the other 777 routes DL has, the A359 can carry what the 777 can carry, and save ~10% on fuel.

And eliminating the 777 eliminates a fleet type and a pilot group. DL said when they announced the 777 retirement, a promotion to a 777 caused up to 10 pilots to change planes and be retrained.

So, with all things considered, retiring the 777s doesn't lose DL much. Although they don't have enough 280t 359s available. DL should be able to get the needed 280T A359s quickly.

One other thing of note - the A350 - 1000, especially in the latest weight variants, can do for DL what the 777s did. But DL chose to not add the extra complication. Speaks volumes re the DL mindset.
 
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zeke
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:08 am

GSOtoIND wrote:
How much more payload could be carried using a closer alternate like BHM or GSP?


GSP over BNA would save around 600 kg, it’s still not like 18 mm to JFK from EWR.
 
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Web500sjc
Posts: 891
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:08 am

zeke wrote:
xcltflyboy wrote:
Or, is it just the 359's general capabilities?


Based upon todays weather the A359 would be limited to a takeoff of 270 tonnes out of JNB, trip fuel today to ATL would be around 95 tonnes (flight time of 16 hrs), using BNA as an alternate, contingency and final reserve total fuel load loaded would be around 103 tonnes, takeoff with 102.5 tonnes. That means ZFW would be limited to 167.5 tonnes, assuming their OEW is around 140 tonnes with catering loaded for this sector means payload available would be 27.5 tonnes, that would mean they would need to block off around 26 seats.

If it was flying to ERW it could go with all 301 seats filled because EWR is not as far as ATL, headwinds are slightly less, and the alternate airport is closer.

Cubsrule wrote:
I’ve not seen specific numbers for the 350, but generally the limiting factor out of JNB is tire speed.


LAX772LR wrote:
That said, the problem with JNB isn't range, it's tire speed-- you'll likely exceed your tire rating before you get off the ground.



CriticalPoint wrote:
Iv been right on max tire speed in the 787. To say that tire speed is not an issue is false.


Tyre speed is not an issue for the A359 out of JNB, using todays data for example V2 would be around 164 kts, which gives you a ground speed of 178 kts, a 26 kt buffer on the 204 kt limit.


Obviously the removal of the CPT stop is because of the South African Government.

DL has multiple A359 weight variants (for my purposes I will assume 275T and 280T). If the A359 is limited to something less than 275T out of JNB, is there any benefit to having a 280T MTOW dedicated to the route?
 
9252fly
Posts: 1207
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Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:20 am

evanb wrote:
jmscsc wrote:


I find this a strange interpretation of the BASA by South Africa since SAA operated JNB-CPT-MIA-JNB for many years under the same agreement (it hasn't been changed since with the exception of additional frequencies which were added by an addendum, not amendment). I guess if Delta felt very strongly about this and was willing to take some time they could have pushed USDOT seek arbitration where they would likely win.


The difference in your example, SAA was operating between two different cities within South Africa, whereas DL was requesting approval to operate between two cities in a foreign country. It's not uncommon for foreign airlines operating into the US to operate a flight to and from different hubs, ie, LH FRA - JFK - MUC. I don't believe there are any restrictions in bilateral agreements for that type of routing. In the case of DL they could operate ATL - JNB - JFK.
 
evanb
Posts: 953
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: DL drops Cape Town from JNB-ATL schedule

Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:21 am

Web500sjc wrote:
Obviously the removal of the CPT stop is because of the South African Government.

DL has multiple A359 weight variants (for my purposes I will assume 275T and 280T). If the A359 is limited to something less than 275T out of JNB, is there any benefit to having a 280T MTOW dedicated to the route?


It was probably part of the calculus but unlikely the binding constraint. If they were desperate for the tech-stop, there are plenty of alternatives in third countries, each with their own strengths and weakness.

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