Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
QXorVX wrote:I have so many questions /thoughts, admittedly all fairly negative about the “plan”. I think in airline fantasy land the thought of a ULCC/LCC hub connecting pax in Anchorage is interesting, kind of the Iceland Air of the pacific. But when you consider the realities of the market there is such a narrow band of success for this kind of operation it’s basically impossible. Couple that with a leadership group that hasn’t even run their current operation for more than a year along with a MASSIVE change in model this is a step beyond risky and touches on comical. Who from Avatar Airlines was a consultant for this vision?
Who are the customers? Anchorage is good in the summer, which is why all the majors operate the best domestic routes. Even the major Asia based carriers can only swing a few yearly charters for Asia based pax going to Alaska. I see no market for them. Low fares will not come even close to stimulating the numbers they would need. And it is hyper seasonal.
What planes? Every 757 available or coming available is nearly at the end of its life. Just because a plane “can” does not mean it should. I imagine they think 757 because it’s small enough to attempt to fill but has the range and ETOPS to maybe achieve the network they want. Again the realities of a small 757 fleet to operate international scheduled (and low cost!) are not in line with this plan.
I think this leadership team needs to run the airline they have first and put it in a position to be successful long term. They have had some big checks from the government supporting them (COVID $) the entire time they have been in operation. I have no reason to believe the current regional operation cannot be a success, but the cycle of regional airlines in Alaska makes me think there is more to it than they may understand.
QXorVX wrote:I have so many questions /thoughts, admittedly all fairly negative about the “plan”. I think in airline fantasy land the thought of a ULCC/LCC hub connecting pax in Anchorage is interesting, kind of the Iceland Air of the pacific. But when you consider the realities of the market there is such a narrow band of success for this kind of operation it’s basically impossible. Couple that with a leadership group that hasn’t even run their current operation for more than a year along with a MASSIVE change in model this is a step beyond risky and touches on comical. Who from Avatar Airlines was a consultant for this vision?
Who are the customers? Anchorage is good in the summer, which is why all the majors operate the best domestic routes. Even the major Asia based carriers can only swing a few yearly charters for Asia based pax going to Alaska. I see no market for them. Low fares will not come even close to stimulating the numbers they would need. And it is hyper seasonal.
What planes? Every 757 available or coming available is nearly at the end of its life. Just because a plane “can” does not mean it should. I imagine they think 757 because it’s small enough to attempt to fill but has the range and ETOPS to maybe achieve the network they want. Again the realities of a small 757 fleet to operate international scheduled (and low cost!) are not in line with this plan.
I think this leadership team needs to run the airline they have first and put it in a position to be successful long term. They have had some big checks from the government supporting them (COVID $) the entire time they have been in operation. I have no reason to believe the current regional operation cannot be a success, but the cycle of regional airlines in Alaska makes me think there is more to it than they may understand.
NameOmitted wrote:Ravn says it’s eyeing flights to Asia and the Lower 48:
https://www.alaskapublic.org/2021/06/29/ravn-says-its-eyeing-flights-to-asia-and-the-lower-48/
- The operation would be called Northern Pacific Airways
- 10 aircraft
- Tokyo, Seoul, Orlando, Newark, Las Vegas, Oakland and Ontario, a Los Angeles suburb.
The video was intended for company personal, the official public announcement comes soon.
solracfunk14 wrote:QXorVX wrote:...
I think they will not connect over ANC, at least for the begginning. Make a stop at ANC for a person going to MCO for me don't make sense. For me they will focus on the leisure market on those destinations from alaskian people, but there are demand for those flights like SunCountry does?
BestWestern wrote:Is this not an Alaskan version of Icelandair?
sfojvjets wrote:BestWestern wrote:Is this not an Alaskan version of Icelandair?
It could be but the route decisions have me thinking more along the lines of a kind of Sun Country with 757s. I think the prospective network is much more optimized for p2p than connections. In that regard the only thing this airline would have in common with Icelandair is fleet type, being the 757. Apart from that tpac and tatl are two very different games, and this carrier seems to be planning to be an lcc whereas Icelandair is more of a hybrid model. I wish this new version of Ravn luck but the road ahead is undoubtedly challenging.
gmcc wrote:NameOmitted wrote:Ravn says it’s eyeing flights to Asia and the Lower 48:
https://www.alaskapublic.org/2021/06/29/ravn-says-its-eyeing-flights-to-asia-and-the-lower-48/
- The operation would be called Northern Pacific Airways
- 10 aircraft
- Tokyo, Seoul, Orlando, Newark, Las Vegas, Oakland and Ontario, a Los Angeles suburb.
The video was intended for company personal, the official public announcement comes soon.
Well AS will just have to crush them by buying 10 787s and running them on exactly the same routes while going bankrupt.. Somehow the word stupid keeps poping into my brain.
BestWestern wrote:Is this not an Alaskan version of Icelandair?
JetBuddy wrote:Some people here seem excited for Alaska to "crush them" on routes Alaska doesn't even operate. That's against all kinds of competition rules in a free marketplace.
Good luck to Ravn.
gmcc wrote:JetBuddy wrote:Some people here seem excited for Alaska to "crush them" on routes Alaska doesn't even operate. That's against all kinds of competition rules in a free marketplace.
Good luck to Ravn.
It's not so much that some posters, such as myself, want AS to crush Ravn but more a feeling that Ravn and AS would probably make more money by setting pallets of cash on fire than going down this route
NameOmitted wrote:We have the Yukon, Siberia, and Spenard.
NameOmitted wrote:gmcc wrote:JetBuddy wrote:Some people here seem excited for Alaska to "crush them" on routes Alaska doesn't even operate. That's against all kinds of competition rules in a free marketplace.
Good luck to Ravn.
It's not so much that some posters, such as myself, want AS to crush Ravn but more a feeling that Ravn and AS would probably make more money by setting pallets of cash on fire than going down this route
Especially since the State of Alaska has a history of offering pallets of money to groups with a snazzy PowerPoint that covers a poor business plan.
freshwater wrote:Hell just do it with a handful of MAX10s
Lootess wrote:I worked in Anchorage for over a year. There is a good amount of natives with a lot of money and affinity to travel, and not having to fly down to SEA to connect globally can probably work for HND and ICN. Good luck to new Ravn if they can pull it off. The old Ravn was certainly debt ridden.
MIflyer12 wrote:freshwater wrote:Hell just do it with a handful of MAX10s
You're not going to do TPAC non-stop from ANC with MAX10s. They might get ANC-HND/ICN on 757s if the seating isn't too dense -- on good days.
Lootess wrote:I worked in Anchorage for over a year. There is a good amount of natives with a lot of money and affinity to travel, and not having to fly down to SEA to connect globally can probably work for HND and ICN. Good luck to new Ravn if they can pull it off. The old Ravn was certainly debt ridden.
sfojvjets wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:freshwater wrote:Hell just do it with a handful of MAX10s
You're not going to do TPAC non-stop from ANC with MAX10s. They might get ANC-HND/ICN on 757s if the seating isn't too dense -- on good days.
LOL who knows. max 10s would be iffy but max 9s would be alright for japan/korea, provided they aren't in a ulcc configuration. and the 757s will be perfectly adequate for japan/korea - it's well within their capabilities. delta used to fly sea-tyo on a 752 in the early 2010s if i remember correctly.
Plus Icelandair (who aren't a full service carrier) used to fly SFO-KEF with a 752 up until early 2020 - that stage length is 650 nmi longer than ANC-TYO and 300 nmi longer than ANC-ICN. ICN may be iffy but Tokyo shouldn't be a problem at all, taking into account the fact that this new carrier plans on being an lcc. Don't underestimate the beast that is the 752
sfojvjets wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:freshwater wrote:Hell just do it with a handful of MAX10s
You're not going to do TPAC non-stop from ANC with MAX10s. They might get ANC-HND/ICN on 757s if the seating isn't too dense -- on good days.
LOL who knows. max 10s would be iffy but max 9s would be alright for japan/korea, provided they aren't in a ulcc configuration. and the 757s will be perfectly adequate for japan/korea - it's well within their capabilities. delta used to fly sea-tyo on a 752 in the early 2010s if i remember correctly.
Plus Icelandair (who aren't a full service carrier) used to fly SFO-KEF with a 752 up until early 2020 - that stage length is 650 nmi longer than ANC-TYO and 300 nmi longer than ANC-ICN. ICN may be iffy but Tokyo shouldn't be a problem at all, taking into account the fact that this new carrier plans on being an lcc. Don't underestimate the beast that is the 752
MIflyer12 wrote:As another poster mentioned, DL's Asia 757s were strictly for interport flying.
UA 757s couldn't do TXL-EWR reliably into winter winds at 3,980 sm. You want ANC-ICN into TPAC winds at 3,798 sm with fewer diversions points, many of them subject to weather? No thanks.
MIflyer12 wrote:sfojvjets wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:
You're not going to do TPAC non-stop from ANC with MAX10s. They might get ANC-HND/ICN on 757s if the seating isn't too dense -- on good days.
LOL who knows. max 10s would be iffy but max 9s would be alright for japan/korea, provided they aren't in a ulcc configuration. and the 757s will be perfectly adequate for japan/korea - it's well within their capabilities. delta used to fly sea-tyo on a 752 in the early 2010s if i remember correctly.
Plus Icelandair (who aren't a full service carrier) used to fly SFO-KEF with a 752 up until early 2020 - that stage length is 650 nmi longer than ANC-TYO and 300 nmi longer than ANC-ICN. ICN may be iffy but Tokyo shouldn't be a problem at all, taking into account the fact that this new carrier plans on being an lcc. Don't underestimate the beast that is the 752
As another poster mentioned, DL's Asia 757s were strictly for interport flying.
UA 757s couldn't do TXL-EWR reliably into winter winds at 3,980 sm. You want ANC-ICN into TPAC winds at 3,798 sm with fewer diversions points, many of them subject to weather? No thanks.
solracfunk14 wrote:QXorVX wrote:I have so many questions /thoughts, admittedly all fairly negative about the “plan”. I think in airline fantasy land the thought of a ULCC/LCC hub connecting pax in Anchorage is interesting, kind of the Iceland Air of the pacific. But when you consider the realities of the market there is such a narrow band of success for this kind of operation it’s basically impossible. Couple that with a leadership group that hasn’t even run their current operation for more than a year along with a MASSIVE change in model this is a step beyond risky and touches on comical. Who from Avatar Airlines was a consultant for this vision?
Who are the customers? Anchorage is good in the summer, which is why all the majors operate the best domestic routes. Even the major Asia based carriers can only swing a few yearly charters for Asia based pax going to Alaska. I see no market for them. Low fares will not come even close to stimulating the numbers they would need. And it is hyper seasonal.
What planes? Every 757 available or coming available is nearly at the end of its life. Just because a plane “can” does not mean it should. I imagine they think 757 because it’s small enough to attempt to fill but has the range and ETOPS to maybe achieve the network they want. Again the realities of a small 757 fleet to operate international scheduled (and low cost!) are not in line with this plan.
I think this leadership team needs to run the airline they have first and put it in a position to be successful long term. They have had some big checks from the government supporting them (COVID $) the entire time they have been in operation. I have no reason to believe the current regional operation cannot be a success, but the cycle of regional airlines in Alaska makes me think there is more to it than they may understand.
I think they will not connect over ANC, at least for the begginning. Make a stop at ANC for a person going to MCO for me don't make sense. For me they will focus on the leisure market on those destinations from alaskian people, but there are demand for those flights like SunCountry does?
Boeing757100 wrote:Where are they going to get frames? I mean, as a 757 fan, I'm happy to see a pax airline who actually wants 757s, but where are they gonna get frames? AFAIK, the ex AA frames are for conversion to freighters. Maybe the 13 that UA retired last year or some of the Icelandair ones? Though I have no idea the cycles and how close to the end of their lives that they are.
debonair wrote:Boeing757100 wrote:Where are they going to get frames? I mean, as a 757 fan, I'm happy to see a pax airline who actually wants 757s, but where are they gonna get frames? AFAIK, the ex AA frames are for conversion to freighters. Maybe the 13 that UA retired last year or some of the Icelandair ones? Though I have no idea the cycles and how close to the end of their lives that they are.
I remember this article, so B757 are on offer: https://simpleflying.com/uzbekistan-air ... -aircraft/
Boeing757100 wrote:debonair wrote:Boeing757100 wrote:Where are they going to get frames? I mean, as a 757 fan, I'm happy to see a pax airline who actually wants 757s, but where are they gonna get frames? AFAIK, the ex AA frames are for conversion to freighters. Maybe the 13 that UA retired last year or some of the Icelandair ones? Though I have no idea the cycles and how close to the end of their lives that they are.
I remember this article, so B757 are on offer: https://simpleflying.com/uzbekistan-air ... -aircraft/
But that's just two frames. For the routes they announced, they probably should have a fleet of at least 5+. What about the other 3?
sfojvjets wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:As another poster mentioned, DL's Asia 757s were strictly for interport flying.
UA 757s couldn't do TXL-EWR reliably into winter winds at 3,980 sm. You want ANC-ICN into TPAC winds at 3,798 sm with fewer diversions points, many of them subject to weather? No thanks.
I may have been wrong about it being a regularly scheduled flight, but no, DL actually did place their 752s on direct NRT-SEA pax service. It seems like it was a one-time thing but it definitely was not a ferry flight. https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-09jun10/
And yeah, I think ANC-ICN is totally feasible. Again, look at my example. Icelandair operated SFO-KEF on a mix of 752s/763s up until early 2020, when the route was cut. SFO-KEF is about 300 nmi farther in terms of stage length when compared to ANC-ICN. And Iceair is not exactly a full service carrier. http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=anc-icn%0D ... =wls&DU=nm
RyanairGuru wrote:sfojvjets wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:As another poster mentioned, DL's Asia 757s were strictly for interport flying.
UA 757s couldn't do TXL-EWR reliably into winter winds at 3,980 sm. You want ANC-ICN into TPAC winds at 3,798 sm with fewer diversions points, many of them subject to weather? No thanks.
I may have been wrong about it being a regularly scheduled flight, but no, DL actually did place their 752s on direct NRT-SEA pax service. It seems like it was a one-time thing but it definitely was not a ferry flight. https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-09jun10/
And yeah, I think ANC-ICN is totally feasible. Again, look at my example. Icelandair operated SFO-KEF on a mix of 752s/763s up until early 2020, when the route was cut. SFO-KEF is about 300 nmi farther in terms of stage length when compared to ANC-ICN. And Iceair is not exactly a full service carrier. http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=anc-icn%0D ... =wls&DU=nm
That one time 757 NRT-SEA was indeed scheduled, and they sold tickets for it, but cancelled several weeks prior to departure. Passengers were rebooked on the earlier flight and the aircraft operated a ferry.
That kinda sounds like a flight got opened for sale that shouldn’t have tbh
Note that was eastbound, with the winds behind. No way a 757 would do SEA-NRT westbound with a full load of pax. Nonetheless, I agree that ANC-ICN is theoretically possible with some weight restrictions (and fuel diversions) in winter. The TXL-EWR example is a good one.
AntonioMartin wrote:I actually read that Rven has a partnership with Alaska? That might help, no???