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JohanTally
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MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:03 pm

It appears Mitsubishi is at least contemplating restarting CRJ production notably the CR7 model potentially for Skywest CRJ550s. Other CR7 operators could also possibly have interest especially PSA because of the favorable scope clause terms with AA.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/07/06/exclu ... roduction/
 
Noshow
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:09 pm

Would this make sense financially? Could they still use the old final assembly site or would they have to move elsewhere? How about the staff needed?
 
airlineworker
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:46 pm

Since the Mitsubishi RJ seems to dead in the water, this might work out well. The CRJ-700 and 900 are still in service and seem to be liked by passengers. New engines might also make them more attractive. Just my 2 cents worth.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:50 pm

I'm tempted to just write "Boeing mulling restarting 757 production" but this could actually make sense a few ways. CRJ550 seems to be pretty universally liked and the Spacejet program is gonna take a while, not to mention, buyers could exist due to a large amount of existing operators. Though Noshow did post a few negatives about the possibility. Time will tell i guess.
 
LDRA
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:53 pm

How is the used CRJ700 market?
Also isn't E-175 still in production?
 
freakyrat
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:54 pm

I think this is a good idea becuse the majors are getting rid of the 50-seaters even for the short runs. For example SBN-DTW Endeavor using a 76-seat CRJ900 as Delta Connection for the morning flight. United Express occasionally using Skywest E170's for the short run of SBN-ORD.
 
joeblow10
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:01 pm

Makes a lot of sense to me. They’ve basically got the 50 seat market all to themselves if they want to try it it via the 550s. My guess is it’ll be quite popular as the CR2 needs a replacement for small communities in the next decade
 
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zkojq
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:04 pm

Why? How many aircraft do they think they will sell and for how long? What volumes do they need to be building to be making money? Production was stopped because the order book was filled, no?

Obviously for an OEM that owns the design, production line etc it's right to be thinking about such things, but I can't see how this would be a success.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:06 pm

Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:48 pm

In the absence of scope, U.S. carriers would take CR9s over CRJ550s, IMHO. We're going to see just how many routes/frequencies in a depressed business travel environment will support the higher CASM of a CRJ550. From the OP's Leeham link:

Production of the CRJ700 may be restarted for use by the USA’s Skywest Airlines in a CRJ550 configuration, LNA is told. The CRJ550 is a 50 seat configuration compared with the 70-76-seat design. Although the per-seat costs skyrocket by up to 34%, the trip costs essentially remain the same.
 
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Polot
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:58 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.

Mitsubishi hadn’t even started much work on the Spacejet that meets US scope clauses. The one they had flying (the M90) does not. It’s the future M100 that would have.

MIflyer12 wrote:
In the absence of scope, U.S. carriers would take CR9s over CRJ550s, IMHO. We're going to see just how many routes/frequencies in a depressed business travel environment will support the higher CASM of a CRJ550. From the OP's Leeham link:

The US carriers are maxed out on 76 seaters, especially now that their mainline fleets are smaller. You are seeing MHI talk about the CRJ550 because 50 seaters have a different cap with available wiggle room (especially as CRJ200/Emb145s age out). AA also has a cap for 50-70 seaters iirc which is why they are also mentioned.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:01 pm

Polot wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.

Mitsubishi hadn’t even started much work on the Spacejet that meets US scope clauses. The one they had flying (the M90) does not. It’s the future M100 that would have.

MIflyer12 wrote:
In the absence of scope, U.S. carriers would take CR9s over CRJ550s, IMHO. We're going to see just how many routes/frequencies in a depressed business travel environment will support the higher CASM of a CRJ550. From the OP's Leeham link:

The US carriers are maxed out on 76 seaters, especially now that their mainline fleets are smaller. You are seeing MHI talk about the CRJ550 because 50 seaters have a different cap with available wiggle room (especially as CRJ200/Emb145s age out). AA also has a cap for 50-70 seaters iirc which is why they are also mentioned.


Depending on how things play out with arbitration, there may be some room for 76 seat jets at Delta, but we will see (flow up/down from the Compass days allowed for extra 76 seat jets, since that's gone, Delta tried to apply the same LOA to another carrier and it's being challenged).
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:08 pm

Polot wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.

Mitsubishi hadn’t even started much work on the Spacejet that meets US scope clauses. The one they had flying (the M90) does not. It’s the future M100 that would have. .


I'm aware of this but the program has went through many cuts and is currently on pause from the Pandemic, hopefully it doesn't end up just being straight up cancelled.
 
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william
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:28 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Polot wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.

Mitsubishi hadn’t even started much work on the Spacejet that meets US scope clauses. The one they had flying (the M90) does not. It’s the future M100 that would have. .


I'm aware of this but the program has went through many cuts and is currently on pause from the Pandemic, hopefully it doesn't end up just being straight up cancelled.

Would take a partner, and the only partner I see willing to bankroll this would be Boeing. Get the feeling they are not really interested................yet.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:30 pm

LDRA wrote:
How is the used CRJ700 market?
Also isn't E-175 still in production?


For question 1, mostly what I've seen is Skywest picking up some used examples recently from France. Their CRJ2 fleet isn't getting any younger and I haven't seen one pop by recently that's any newer than 2004. Many of their CRJ7 are that old as well.

With CRJ2 engine overhaul prices so cost prohibitive (according to A.net lore) and traffic in the US rebounding abruptly, we may see a crunch on 50 seat capacity sooner rather than later. I think a production restart isn't the craziest thing I have heard of.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:37 pm

Spacepope wrote:
LDRA wrote:
How is the used CRJ700 market?
Also isn't E-175 still in production?


For question 1, mostly what I've seen is Skywest picking up some used examples recently from France. Their CRJ2 fleet isn't getting any younger and I haven't seen one pop by recently that's any newer than 2004. Many of their CRJ7 are that old as well.

With CRJ2 engine overhaul prices so cost prohibitive (according to A.net lore) and traffic in the US rebounding abruptly, we may see a crunch on 50 seat capacity sooner rather than later. I think a production restart isn't the craziest thing I have heard of.



OO bought a bunch of the former PSA (OH) 200's, that were mostly 2004 build dates. But beyond that, there really aren't any 200s of later serial numbers that are available, other than ones currently in operation by competitors.
 
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Revelation
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:40 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.

I think that's a pretty generous description of where things were at when the program was shut down. M90 was not scope compliant. M100 was, but none were ever built. They were about four years away from M100 EIS when the plug was pulled, but we know the program wasn't very good at hitting dates.

Wiki sez:

In June 2019, Mitsubishi rebranded the MRJ program as the SpaceJet. The MRJ90 was renamed as the SpaceJet M90 and a 76-seat variant specially targeted to meet US scope clauses, to be known as the SpaceJet M100, was announced. This version will be 1.1 m (3 ft 7 in) longer than the abandoned MRJ70 but 1.3 m (4 ft 3 in) shorter than the M90.
...
In May 2020, Mitsubishi halved the budget of the SpaceJet program for the year ending 31 March 2021. It confirmed its commitment to the baseline M90 version but is to reconsider the M100 in the light of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the aviation industry.

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_SpaceJet

The flying prototypes were M90s, and only one of those was in the representative final configuration (avionics bay moved from the rear to under the floor up front). No M100s were built. They were only a thing for less than a year before the plug was pulled.

We don't even know how viable the M100 would have been. Sure the GTFs are more efficient than CF-34s but they weigh a lot more and have more frontal drag. It could very well be the resulting product met scope but wasn't more economical to run relative to the CF-34 based products. There's are reason why M90 and E2 are bigger airplanes, you need a bigger plane to offer more revenue opportunity to cover the penalty of the bigger heavier engines that have thrust to spare. There's a reason why E1-175 still gets orders. There's a reason why MHI is considering restarting CRJ production. It's very difficult to make a viable scope compliant aircraft with engines as heavy as the GTFs are.

ikolkyo wrote:
I'm aware of this but the program has went through many cuts and is currently on pause from the Pandemic, hopefully it doesn't end up just being straight up cancelled.

The first pause was due to the pandemic, but the second one was in essence strategic.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd (MHI) 7011.T, Japan's biggest aerospace manufacturer, said on Friday it would freeze development of its SpaceJet regional aircraft to focus on renewable energy and other businesses that will bolster profits.
...
Japan said on Friday it had picked MHI to lead the development of a new stealth fighter jet that Japan wants operational by the mid-2030s to counter advanced Chinese aircraft.

The fighter jet project is expected to cost about $40 billion.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/mhi-res ... SKBN27F0PT

Given this, and stuff posted in other threads about how pausing will make earlier certification efforts become invalid, I think we can safely say the MRJ has gone the way of the Rekkof.

william wrote:
Would take a partner, and the only partner I see willing to bankroll this would be Boeing. Get the feeling they are not really interested................yet.

Boeing's bankroll ain't what it used to be...
 
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Polot
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:16 pm

DiamondFlyer wrote:
Polot wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.

Mitsubishi hadn’t even started much work on the Spacejet that meets US scope clauses. The one they had flying (the M90) does not. It’s the future M100 that would have.

MIflyer12 wrote:
In the absence of scope, U.S. carriers would take CR9s over CRJ550s, IMHO. We're going to see just how many routes/frequencies in a depressed business travel environment will support the higher CASM of a CRJ550. From the OP's Leeham link:

The US carriers are maxed out on 76 seaters, especially now that their mainline fleets are smaller. You are seeing MHI talk about the CRJ550 because 50 seaters have a different cap with available wiggle room (especially as CRJ200/Emb145s age out). AA also has a cap for 50-70 seaters iirc which is why they are also mentioned.


Depending on how things play out with arbitration, there may be some room for 76 seat jets at Delta, but we will see (flow up/down from the Compass days allowed for extra 76 seat jets, since that's gone, Delta tried to apply the same LOA to another carrier and it's being challenged).

At this point DL has 76 seaters parked to remain compliant due to smaller mainline fleet, especially with some of the 717s now retired. Any additional 76 seat jets allowed at this point will be to get the planes currently parked flying.
 
MEA-707
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:21 pm

I think they should look at the 900 instead. It still sold reasonably and has good ASM costs. The 700 didn't sell at all for the last 8 years even while still available. Lufthansa had theirs for sale, less than 10 years old, well overhauled and most ended up scrapped because almost noone wanted them.
 
Naincompetent
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:24 pm

As always, I'm baffled by the fact that no-one in the US wants to have anything to do with (rather) large turboprops like ATRs...
Last edited by Naincompetent on Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
flight152
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:25 pm

MEA-707 wrote:
I think they should look at the 900 instead. It still sold reasonably and has good ASM costs. The 700 didn't sell at all for the last 8 years even while still available. Lufthansa had theirs for sale, less than 10 years old, well overhauled and most ended up scrapped because almost noone wanted them.


The 900 doesn’t work for 50 seat conversion.
 
2eng2efficient
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:36 pm

This makes sense, only because of the scope-induced peculiarities of the North American market. Skywest and it’s peers probably don’t feel great about becoming 100% dependent on Embraer. And with the E175E2 dead in the water, MRJ looking increasingly unlikely… what other options would they have?

Tons of 50 seaters are going to need to be replaced in the near future. The CRJ-550 (or what about the CRJ-705, which is based on the -900?) would slot right into the fleet with extremely low integration costs. This is true for almost every regional.

The incremental cost of restarting CRJ production is probably less than the cost of getting the MRJ to market. Imagine if MHI converts its existing MRJ order book to CRJ, with further orders of the 550 to replace outgoing 50 seaters. The economics are there folks, and they might be compelling.

Lastly, I’ll just point out that if Leeham is reporting this, it’s likely because people inside MHI, BBD, or Skywest’s procurement department leaked it.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:44 pm

Polot wrote:
DiamondFlyer wrote:
Polot wrote:
Mitsubishi hadn’t even started much work on the Spacejet that meets US scope clauses. The one they had flying (the M90) does not. It’s the future M100 that would have.


The US carriers are maxed out on 76 seaters, especially now that their mainline fleets are smaller. You are seeing MHI talk about the CRJ550 because 50 seaters have a different cap with available wiggle room (especially as CRJ200/Emb145s age out). AA also has a cap for 50-70 seaters iirc which is why they are also mentioned.


Depending on how things play out with arbitration, there may be some room for 76 seat jets at Delta, but we will see (flow up/down from the Compass days allowed for extra 76 seat jets, since that's gone, Delta tried to apply the same LOA to another carrier and it's being challenged).

At this point DL has 76 seaters parked to remain compliant due to smaller mainline fleet, especially with some of the 717s now retired. Any additional 76 seat jets allowed at this point will be to get the planes currently parked flying.


Not totally true. Some of the previously 76 seat CR9's have been converted to CR8's (70 seat variants), in order to get more planes back flying. As the YX 170's leave the fleet, more are scheduled to be done.
 
as739x
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:44 pm

MEA-707 wrote:
I think they should look at the 900 instead. It still sold reasonably and has good ASM costs. The 700 didn't sell at all for the last 8 years even while still available. Lufthansa had theirs for sale, less than 10 years old, well overhauled and most ended up scrapped because almost noone wanted them.


That defeats the purpose mentioned in the article. Its focused on the 550 (50 seater) with leaving the option open for -900s. It's the 50 seaters to meet scope clause requirements that they are looking at.
 
alasizon
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:49 pm

SkyWest isn't looking to operate the 550, that's the thing, they are only interested in leasing to GoJet since UA will only pay a 50 seat rate for the 550.

Realistically they probably asked for the AA side of the house, OO has sourced up most of the usable 700 feedstock and yet AA's scope allows as many 700s as OO can practically fly to account for the "small RJ" bucket and the 145s that currently make up the 50 seat lift aren't getting any younger with most of the youngest planes being back east at Piedmont.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:53 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
This makes sense, only because of the scope-induced peculiarities of the North American market. Skywest and it’s peers probably don’t feel great about becoming 100% dependent on Embraer. And with the E175E2 dead in the water, MRJ looking increasingly unlikely… what other options would they have?

Tons of 50 seaters are going to need to be replaced in the near future. The CRJ-550 (or what about the CRJ-705, which is based on the -900?) would slot right into the fleet with extremely low integration costs. This is true for almost every regional.

The incremental cost of restarting CRJ production is probably less than the cost of getting the MRJ to market. Imagine if MHI converts its existing MRJ order book to CRJ, with further orders of the 550 to replace outgoing 50 seaters. The economics are there folks, and they might be compelling.

Lastly, I’ll just point out that if Leeham is reporting this, it’s likely because people inside MHI, BBD, or Skywest’s procurement department leaked it.



It 100% not surprise me if it was leaked by Skwest (or some other regional), as a way to put pressure on EMB for better 175E1 pricing...
 
mcdu
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:06 pm

DiamondFlyer wrote:
2eng2efficient wrote:
This makes sense, only because of the scope-induced peculiarities of the North American market. Skywest and it’s peers probably don’t feel great about becoming 100% dependent on Embraer. And with the E175E2 dead in the water, MRJ looking increasingly unlikely… what other options would they have?

Tons of 50 seaters are going to need to be replaced in the near future. The CRJ-550 (or what about the CRJ-705, which is based on the -900?) would slot right into the fleet with extremely low integration costs. This is true for almost every regional.

The incremental cost of restarting CRJ production is probably less than the cost of getting the MRJ to market. Imagine if MHI converts its existing MRJ order book to CRJ, with further orders of the 550 to replace outgoing 50 seaters. The economics are there folks, and they might be compelling.

Lastly, I’ll just point out that if Leeham is reporting this, it’s likely because people inside MHI, BBD, or Skywest’s procurement department leaked it.



It 100% not surprise me if it was leaked by Skwest (or some other regional), as a way to put pressure on EMB for better 175E1 pricing...


I think most of the legacy carriers are at their scope limit for number of 175’s or large RJ’s. The legacy pilot groups are not willing to relax scope as they were bitten badly last time. About the only future growth airplane available in the regional market is a 550. The first class, in cabin baggage storage and economy plus seating are popular with customers. If OO wants to add 550’s it will be at the expense of 200’s which would be a good thing for passenger comfort.
 
rbavfan
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:22 pm

zkojq wrote:
Why? How many aircraft do they think they will sell and for how long? What volumes do they need to be building to be making money? Production was stopped because the order book was filled, no?

Obviously for an OEM that owns the design, production line etc it's right to be thinking about such things, but I can't see how this would be a success.


Actually they were not really taking orders as they were shutting it down due to their finances at Bombardier. MHI bought it for the tech mostly to use it on their spacejet.
.
 
rbavfan
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:28 pm

Covid did not kill the spaceJet, unflexible scope clause killed it. It also makes it impossible for US airlines to get the E175-E2 as it has a weight as well as a seat limit. So they are both to heavy for scope.
 
jbs2886
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:50 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Covid did not kill the spaceJet, unflexible scope clause killed it. It also makes it impossible for US airlines to get the E175-E2 as it has a weight as well as a seat limit. So they are both to heavy for scope.


False. It was even discussed in this thread the M100 is proposed to be scope compliant.
 
flyinggoat
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:51 pm

Personally, I’d love to see the CRJ2, CRJ7, and maybe the CRJ9 reworked with a new wing and pusher props in place of the turbofans. I think it would do really well, and most passengers wouldn’t notice the props at the rear.
 
AndoAv8R
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:53 pm

I cant help but wonder if Skywest might also be considering the new EMB turboprop, since it sounds like Embraer will launch it.
 
jbs2886
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:59 pm

AndoAv8R wrote:
I cant help but wonder if Skywest might also be considering the new EMB turboprop, since it sounds like Embraer will launch it.


I imagine it’s a few years away, but I wouldn’t rule it out. IMO the small regional market will see significant changes as the CRJ/ERJs phase out. Whether it’s more at-risk flying with props or airlines like Silver filling in a gap, no idea.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:10 pm

flyinggoat wrote:
Personally, I’d love to see the CRJ2, CRJ7, and maybe the CRJ9 reworked with a new wing and pusher props in place of the turbofans. I think it would do really well, and most passengers wouldn’t notice the props at the rear.



I agree with the pusher props - no one would look at a Starship or Avanti II and say they were old fashion prop planes. Maybe the public would finally accept them in the States
 
flyinggoat
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:24 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:


I agree with the pusher props - no one would look at a Starship or Avanti II and say they were old fashion prop planes. Maybe the public would finally accept them in the States


The great thing about a CRJ based prop is that most passengers wouldn’t even know they’re on a prop. They board via a jetbridge, and once onboard, the props are out of sight at the back. I think the only way someone would know if it’s a prop is if they look out the terminal window and see the plane pulling up, but how many people do that?

I think it’s a win-win. Efficiency of a prop without the “ancient, unreliable technology” stigma that comes with it.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:32 pm

Polot wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.

Mitsubishi hadn’t even started much work on the Spacejet that meets US scope clauses. The one they had flying (the M90) does not. It’s the future M100 that would have.

MIflyer12 wrote:
In the absence of scope, U.S. carriers would take CR9s over CRJ550s, IMHO. We're going to see just how many routes/frequencies in a depressed business travel environment will support the higher CASM of a CRJ550. From the OP's Leeham link:

The US carriers are maxed out on 76 seaters, especially now that their mainline fleets are smaller. You are seeing MHI talk about the CRJ550 because 50 seaters have a different cap with available wiggle room (especially as CRJ200/Emb145s age out). AA also has a cap for 50-70 seaters iirc which is why they are also mentioned.

In the absence of scope, U.S. carriers would take E175 & E2s over any CRJ variant.
 
LDRA
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:43 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
AndoAv8R wrote:
I cant help but wonder if Skywest might also be considering the new EMB turboprop, since it sounds like Embraer will launch it.


I imagine it’s a few years away, but I wouldn’t rule it out. IMO the small regional market will see significant changes as the CRJ/ERJs phase out. Whether it’s more at-risk flying with props or airlines like Silver filling in a gap, no idea.


A lot of times, RJs are competing against personal automotives, and driving assistance automation features on cars are getting better and better. People will be more tolerable driving say three hours to hub. It's simply more comfortable and relaxing sitting in private space of your personal car too
 
2eng2efficient
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:55 pm

LDRA wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
AndoAv8R wrote:
I cant help but wonder if Skywest might also be considering the new EMB turboprop, since it sounds like Embraer will launch it.


I imagine it’s a few years away, but I wouldn’t rule it out. IMO the small regional market will see significant changes as the CRJ/ERJs phase out. Whether it’s more at-risk flying with props or airlines like Silver filling in a gap, no idea.


A lot of times, RJs are competing against personal automotives, and driving assistance automation features on cars are getting better and better. People will be more tolerable driving say three hours to hub. It's simply more comfortable and relaxing sitting in private space of your personal car too


To an extent, yes. Perhaps the proposed $20B+ in U.S. passenger rail funding will further eat into the traditional RJ market, on routes like CMH-ORD.

But a significant fraction of RJ pax are on a connection between two city pairs where the distance is far beyond what most people would do via ground transportation modes. To this end, and even considering the trend toward lower frequency across the industry, RJs are not going away.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:09 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Really hope they aren’t complete done with the Spacejet, it’s the only new aircraft that meets scope.

While I agree, I always follow the money and it looks like a scope compliant GTF isn't going to happen.


On topic:
Is UA really going to hire more CRJ550? I am very skeptical.

Lightsaber
 
jbs2886
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:18 pm

LDRA wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
AndoAv8R wrote:
I cant help but wonder if Skywest might also be considering the new EMB turboprop, since it sounds like Embraer will launch it.


I imagine it’s a few years away, but I wouldn’t rule it out. IMO the small regional market will see significant changes as the CRJ/ERJs phase out. Whether it’s more at-risk flying with props or airlines like Silver filling in a gap, no idea.


A lot of times, RJs are competing against personal automotives, and driving assistance automation features on cars are getting better and better. People will be more tolerable driving say three hours to hub. It's simply more comfortable and relaxing sitting in private space of your personal car too


I think this is far more rare than you suggest (when we are talking about 50 seaters, not longer range 76 seaters). Someone taking an RJ is likely connecting through a hub; the cost and time of flying an RJ to a hub isn’t worth it non-stop. A 3 hour drive before getting to a hub airport to take another flight is very undesirable.
 
LDRA
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:20 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
LDRA wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

I imagine it’s a few years away, but I wouldn’t rule it out. IMO the small regional market will see significant changes as the CRJ/ERJs phase out. Whether it’s more at-risk flying with props or airlines like Silver filling in a gap, no idea.


A lot of times, RJs are competing against personal automotives, and driving assistance automation features on cars are getting better and better. People will be more tolerable driving say three hours to hub. It's simply more comfortable and relaxing sitting in private space of your personal car too


To an extent, yes. Perhaps the proposed $20B+ in U.S. passenger rail funding will further eat into the traditional RJ market, on routes like CMH-ORD.

But a significant fraction of RJ pax are on a connection between two city pairs where the distance is far beyond what most people would do via ground transportation modes. To this end, and even considering the trend toward lower frequency across the industry, RJs are not going away.


It's true there are hub to hub RJs for frequency. But there's the domino effect. You take away a portion of the addressable market(small stations to nearby hub), the entire RJ fleet ecosystem suffers
 
graceintheair
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:22 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
flyinggoat wrote:
Personally, I’d love to see the CRJ2, CRJ7, and maybe the CRJ9 reworked with a new wing and pusher props in place of the turbofans. I think it would do really well, and most passengers wouldn’t notice the props at the rear.



I agree with the pusher props - no one would look at a Starship or Avanti II and say they were old fashion prop planes. Maybe the public would finally accept them in the States


Would those types of turboprops cruise at the same speed and altitude of jets? I was terrified more than a few times flying on the Jetsreams to commute. An airline pilot told me they weren't as good as jets since they can't climb above the bad weather and the slower speeds make them easier to accumulate ice. I've read of way too many accidents of turboprops crashing due to icing. No thanks.
 
LDRA
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:25 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
LDRA wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

I imagine it’s a few years away, but I wouldn’t rule it out. IMO the small regional market will see significant changes as the CRJ/ERJs phase out. Whether it’s more at-risk flying with props or airlines like Silver filling in a gap, no idea.


A lot of times, RJs are competing against personal automotives, and driving assistance automation features on cars are getting better and better. People will be more tolerable driving say three hours to hub. It's simply more comfortable and relaxing sitting in private space of your personal car too


I think this is far more rare than you suggest (when we are talking about 50 seaters, not longer range 76 seaters). Someone taking an RJ is likely connecting through a hub; the cost and time of flying an RJ to a hub isn’t worth it non-stop. A 3 hour drive before getting to a hub airport to take another flight is very undesirable.


Not if the 3 hour drive is rather relaxing. You can talk on phone, you can eat, you might even be allowed to surf internet/look at a screen for entertainment. Not to mention it's all private space
 
jbs2886
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:45 pm

LDRA wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
LDRA wrote:

A lot of times, RJs are competing against personal automotives, and driving assistance automation features on cars are getting better and better. People will be more tolerable driving say three hours to hub. It's simply more comfortable and relaxing sitting in private space of your personal car too


I think this is far more rare than you suggest (when we are talking about 50 seaters, not longer range 76 seaters). Someone taking an RJ is likely connecting through a hub; the cost and time of flying an RJ to a hub isn’t worth it non-stop. A 3 hour drive before getting to a hub airport to take another flight is very undesirable.


Not if the 3 hour drive is rather relaxing. You can talk on phone, you can eat, you might even be allowed to surf internet/look at a screen for entertainment. Not to mention it's all private space


Umm, that’s incredibly unsafe. And I still think that’s rare who thinks a 3 hour drive is relaxing.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:45 pm

MEA-707 wrote:
I think they should look at the 900 instead. It still sold reasonably and has good ASM costs. The 700 didn't sell at all for the last 8 years even while still available. Lufthansa had theirs for sale, less than 10 years old, well overhauled and most ended up scrapped because almost noone wanted them.

That was then, this is now….
The CRJ fleet is aging out, fast, and it just isn’t airframes and rotables getting in short supply. The engines are becoming the real issue.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:23 pm

LDRA wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
LDRA wrote:

A lot of times, RJs are competing against personal automotives, and driving assistance automation features on cars are getting better and better. People will be more tolerable driving say three hours to hub. It's simply more comfortable and relaxing sitting in private space of your personal car too


I think this is far more rare than you suggest (when we are talking about 50 seaters, not longer range 76 seaters). Someone taking an RJ is likely connecting through a hub; the cost and time of flying an RJ to a hub isn’t worth it non-stop. A 3 hour drive before getting to a hub airport to take another flight is very undesirable.


Not if the 3 hour drive is rather relaxing. You can talk on phone, you can eat, you might even be allowed to surf internet/look at a screen for entertainment. Not to mention it's all private space

While this is in the works at many automakers (especially Tesla), it is not legal yet, and won't be anytime soon.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:29 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
MEA-707 wrote:
I think they should look at the 900 instead. It still sold reasonably and has good ASM costs. The 700 didn't sell at all for the last 8 years even while still available. Lufthansa had theirs for sale, less than 10 years old, well overhauled and most ended up scrapped because almost noone wanted them.

That was then, this is now….
The CRJ fleet is aging out, fast, and it just isn’t airframes and rotables getting in short supply. The engines are becoming the real issue.

The issue, in my opinion, is engine overhaul costs and GE's contract service costs. There is no fundamental reason the CF-34-8 couldn't be serviced for a long time. The issues are costs and when it must be paid for...

Lightsaber
 
NLINK
Posts: 393
Joined: Sat Nov 15, 2003 3:20 pm

Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:46 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
LDRA wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

I think this is far more rare than you suggest (when we are talking about 50 seaters, not longer range 76 seaters). Someone taking an RJ is likely connecting through a hub; the cost and time of flying an RJ to a hub isn’t worth it non-stop. A 3 hour drive before getting to a hub airport to take another flight is very undesirable.


Not if the 3 hour drive is rather relaxing. You can talk on phone, you can eat, you might even be allowed to surf internet/look at a screen for entertainment. Not to mention it's all private space


Umm, that’s incredibly unsafe. And I still think that’s rare who thinks a 3 hour drive is relaxing.



Driving can be very enjoyable. Sometimes you have to spend more time and get on some backroads and see unique things. It’s relaxing sometimes to not always being in a hurry. I also enjoy flying on occasion but driving is not always unenjoyable.
 
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Polot
Posts: 12234
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:58 pm

NLINK wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
LDRA wrote:

Not if the 3 hour drive is rather relaxing. You can talk on phone, you can eat, you might even be allowed to surf internet/look at a screen for entertainment. Not to mention it's all private space


Umm, that’s incredibly unsafe. And I still think that’s rare who thinks a 3 hour drive is relaxing.



Driving can be very enjoyable. Sometimes you have to spend more time and get on some backroads and see unique things. It’s relaxing sometimes to not always being in a hurry. I also enjoy flying on occasion but driving is not always unenjoyable.

How enjoyable the drive is is very much dependent on how long the flight is. Trust me there is nothing enjoyable stepping off a 3+ hr long flight and then remembering you have to drive 3 hours to get home.
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 306
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Re: MHI mulling restarting CRJ production

Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:20 am

If anything its a way to make the whole MRJ debacle less of a loss. Mitsu is a great OEM support company, ask any MU-2 owner.

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