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tlecam
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AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:38 am

Bloomberg and Yahoo News are reporting that AF and KLM are moving forward in negotiations for a 160 jet narrowbody order.

https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/air-fr ... 39166.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 0-new-jets


(Mods, pls delete if this is a dupe. I searched but couldn’t find a thread devoted to this.)
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:48 am

Definetely Boeings to lose. The Jets seem to be for Transavia (Dutch and French Branch) which are both NG operators. If this does not go to Boeing it would be the biggest surprise in a long long time...
 
DALCE
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:53 am

Just because AF mainline narrow bodies are not mentioned, it would surprise me completely if they order 320Neo-series. This is really Boeings to loose!
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:56 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Definetely Boeings to lose. The Jets seem to be for Transavia (Dutch and French Branch) which are both NG operators. If this does not go to Boeing it would be the biggest surprise in a long long time...


Not just both Transavia branches but for KLM too. Candidates are A220, A32x and 737MAX. Agree this is Boeing's to lose, KLM CEO Elbers more than once expressed his preference for Boeing. However, he also left the door open for Airbus, if Boeing made another big mess of things. But with the 737MAX being back to service, an Airbus order would be a surprise. Toulouse will give it a try though.

Hope we'll get a decision before the end of this year, this has been postponed so many times already...
 
Delta28L
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:14 am

A320/1NEOS for AF
MAXs for KLM and transavia

KLM is one of the last remaining airlines with 737NGs that haven’t ordered the MAX.
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:25 am

Come on Boeing! You need just one or two hundred B737s to cover all the cancellations in 2019/2020.
 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:47 am

I would be shocked if this 160 plane order wouldn't go 100% to Boeing given that KL/HV and TO all have the 737NG as their narrow body plane of choice.

HV/KL don't have any experience with Airbus narrow bodies (except for a short term lease some years ago), and the last time AF flew Boeing narrow bodies was in 2007.

However, AF might try to seduce some A320 pilots to move to TO if they order some A320 NEOs in order to reduce staff costs. But remembering how that worked out for AF when they launched Joon..... But hey, everything is possible.

Although KLM ordering A320's would be an earth shattering announcement and very unlikely, given that they have just decided to become an all Boeing airline in 2025 when they park the last A330's and taking on more Dreamliners instead of the A350's. (Yes, KLM Cityhopper has the Embrears but i'm talking about KLM 'mainline')

Interesting times and this might be a THE golden opportunity for Airbus to get a foot in the door in Amstelveen.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:04 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:

Interesting times and this might be a THE golden opportunity for Airbus to get a foot in the door in Amstelveen.


Who needs this order more, I wonder? If KL are looking at 737-700/800/900 replacement then the MAX must be the favourite. KL do have a large fleet of E95s and 73G's, totalling around 50. So they have historically seen the need for a 130-150 seater and already ordered up to 35 E95-E2. In the context of the Embraer order and the large Transavia fleet, I would expect a Boeing win here.
 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:20 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:

Interesting times and this might be a THE golden opportunity for Airbus to get a foot in the door in Amstelveen.


Who needs this order more, I wonder? If KL are looking at 737-700/800/900 replacement then the MAX must be the favourite. KL do have a large fleet of E95s and 73G's, totalling around 50. So they have historically seen the need for a 130-150 seater and already ordered up to 35 E95-E2. In the context of the Embraer order and the large Transavia fleet, I would expect a Boeing win here.


Well even though it makes perfect sense (fleet wise) for the Transavia's and KLM to order the MAX, it must annoy Airbus a lot that all major carriers in Europe have Airbus narrow bodies in their fleet (AF, BA, LH, U2, SK, AY, LX, AZ, IB, SN and so on) except KLM and of course Ryanair. Well, the likelihood of Ryanair replacing their 737 fleet with A320's is 0.000000001% but both KLM as well as Air France have qualified Airbus pilots walking around. So Airbus might say to KLM: Hey guys... what are your plans with those redundant A330 pilots in a couple of years... let us introduce them to our shiny new A320 neo! *wink wink*

I don't know. I'm just a simple guy trying to add my two cents to this discussion :lol:
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:41 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
I don't know. I'm just a simple guy trying to add my two cents to this discussion :lol:


In a scenario where KLM wanted to replace the E195s, 73Gs and 738 and 739s a fleet split between A220, A32N and even some A321XLRs for thinner US and African routes, sometimes operated by PrivatAir could make sense. KLM have already ordered 195E2's, so the A220 doesn't seem to have an obvious place. In the wider group Transavia operates 39 dutch 737s and 50 (!) on the French side, so 120 sounds right for the 737 replacement at KL and Transavia. With 195E2s already joining the fleet I reckon the 737 must be the favourite.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:41 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
So Airbus might say to KLM: Hey guys... what are your plans with those redundant A330 pilots in a couple of years... let us introduce them to our shiny new A320 neo! *wink wink*


Well, KLM may have to retrain A330 pilots, but they have only 11 A330 aircraft now - compared to almost 50 737s. I'm not familiar with the staff numbers at KLM, but in case of an A32x order they will have retrain perhaps 6 times as many 737 pilots....

And I don't know if an A330 captain would be over the moon to be an A320 captain.... Perhaps Airbuster can say something about this ;-)

Airbus can only win if Boeing is too confident of winning this order and misjudges the discounts necessary.
 
76er
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:44 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
So Airbus might say to KLM: Hey guys... what are your plans with those redundant A330 pilots in a couple of years... let us introduce them to our shiny new A320 neo! *wink wink*


Nice try, but unfortunately is does not work that way. KL widebody pilots are on higher payscales than narrowbody crew. The complex KL seniority system pretty much makes what you suggest impossible.
 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:47 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
I don't know. I'm just a simple guy trying to add my two cents to this discussion :lol:


In a scenario where KLM wanted to replace the E195s, 73Gs and 738 and 739s a fleet split between A220, A32N and even some A321XLRs for thinner US and African routes, sometimes operated by PrivatAir could make sense. KLM have already ordered 195E2's, so the A220 doesn't seem to have an obvious place. In the wider group Transavia operates 39 dutch 737s and 50 (!) on the French side, so 120 sounds right for the 737 replacement at KL and Transavia. With 195E2s already joining the fleet I reckon the 737 must be the favourite.


Oh they won't replace the Embrears, for sure! Because those are operated by KLM Cityhopper and according to the Dutch article I read about this order, AFKL group is buying these 160 aircraft for KLM Mainline and both Transavia's. Not for KLM Cityhopper. I thought this order was also aimed for Air France mainline, but apparently it's not.
 
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CrimsonNL
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:49 pm

I always thought KLM would benefit a great deal from having containerized A320's, for the hub operation at AMS. So much more efficient bag loading! However for obvious reasons I think it will be a MAX order..
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:57 pm

G'day

I have always been puzzled about the Dutch aversion to buying European and even Dutch products. I mean, Airbus SE is registered in the Netherlands. So buying the 'bus is buying a "local" product. Though with KLM's and Transavia's past buying preferences I seriously doubt they will be changing suppliers - unless political pressure becomes a problem. Having received 14+ billion Euro's in French and Dutch government subsidies to cover for the Covid losses I do not see that the Airfrance/KLM group can spend roughly half of that on foreign aircraft purchases without raising a few eyebrows.

And yes, I am aware that the US majors also received Covid government subsidies, and some of them place orders outside the US. I hope this does not open a can of worms.

It will be interesting to see how this works out :bigthumbsup:

Cheers

Peter
 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:03 pm

Heavierthanair wrote:
I have always been puzzled about the Dutch aversion to buying European and even Dutch products.



Ever heard of Fokker aircraft :biggrin: ?
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:14 pm

G'day

PANAMsterdam wrote:
Ever heard of Fokker aircraft


My first Fokker flight, with an F28 was in '71 with MMA - Mickey Mouse Airlines as it was commonly called - i.e. McRobertson Miller Airlines in Australia. They are long gone, so is Fokker I guess. Rekkof anyone? :irked:

Cheers

Peter
 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:16 pm

Heavierthanair wrote:
G'day

PANAMsterdam wrote:
Ever heard of Fokker aircraft


My first Fokker flight, with an F28 was in '71 with MMA - Mickey Mouse Airlines as it was commonly called - i.e. McRobertson Miller Airlines in Australia. They are long gone, so is Fokker I guess. Rekkof anyone? :irked:

Cheers

Peter


Yeah it's a shame Fokker doesn't exist anymore and I don't think we'll ever see a Rekkof plane being manufactured. Although it's nice that after all these years, there are still some old Dutch Birds flying around in Iran and Australia!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:18 pm

Heavierthanair wrote:

And yes, I am aware that the US majors also received Covid government subsidies, and some of them place orders outside the US. I hope this does not open a can of worms.


All of the ten largest U.S. passenger carriers received Covid grant funds (sums much larger than optional loans). IIRC, eight of those ten (all except Southwest and Hawaiian) have open orders for Airbus aircraft. Some, like UA, have placed orders since first receiving $ Billions in Covid grant funds. If EU countries legislatively favor purchase of EU-assembled aircraft, the U.S. Congress will respond within a month. It will make the 15-year launch aid WTO fight look like a family picnic.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:40 pm

How many Max white tails does Boeing have left to sell?
They could sweeten the pot by throwing some of those in
like they did with the huge UA order a couple weeks back :)
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:21 pm

Heavierthanair wrote:
I have always been puzzled about the Dutch aversion to buying European and even Dutch products. I mean, Airbus SE is registered in the Netherlands. So buying the 'bus is buying a "local" product.


There is no Dutch aversion against buying local. That being said, Airbus SE may be registered in The Netherlands, but this is just a paper exercise for tax reasons. Airbus has few employees in The Netherlands, just Airbus Defence and Space Netherlands (formerly Fokker Space) with just 200 employees. I believe Boeing's Netherlands office employs twice as many people... Surely, Airbus has some subcontractors in The Netherlands, but so does Boeing. It's comparable with fighter jets. The European products have just hardly any involvement in The Netherlands. That's why there is no national interest in buying European aircraft here, contrary to for example France, Germany, Spain and the UK.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:25 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
How many Max white tails does Boeing have left to sell?
They could sweeten the pot by throwing some of those in
like they did with the huge UA order a couple weeks back :)


There were just 10 or so a few weeks ago. I don't think the UA order a few weeks ago involved any white tails. There have been some NTU's allocated to UA's previous MAX order though.

I don't believe this AF/KL RFP will be influenced by NTU's from either side.
 
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:30 pm

This is a facinating order. I won't assume anything, but Boeing, with the MAX-10 has an advantage. The question on smaller and the possibility of the A220 and possible xLR orders makes this less than 100% certain to one vendor. I'm at 60% certain all Boeing, which can mean anything.

Lightsaber
 
Speedy752
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:31 pm

Heavierthanair wrote:
G'day

I have always been puzzled about the Dutch aversion to buying European and even Dutch products. I mean, Airbus SE is registered in the Netherlands. So buying the 'bus is buying a "local" product. Though with KLM's and Transavia's past buying preferences I seriously doubt they will be changing suppliers - unless political pressure becomes a problem. Having received 14+ billion Euro's in French and Dutch government subsidies to cover for the Covid losses I do not see that the Airfrance/KLM group can spend roughly half of that on foreign aircraft purchases without raising a few eyebrows.

And yes, I am aware that the US majors also received Covid government subsidies, and some of them place orders outside the US. I hope this does not open a can of worms.

It will be interesting to see how this works out :bigthumbsup:

Cheers

Peter


I’m pretty sure forcing KLM to choose a “local” supplier would rightly go over as well as the US government directing the big 3 to only order their local product since they got government help as well. Not to mention both products contain considerable EU/US content anyways despite who manufactures the end product. I’d think with the recent “easing” of trade tensions that’s pretty much the last thing either side would want to do right now and catapult a new dimension into the forefront.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:37 pm

It would be a mistake IMHO for AFKL to have all four next-generation narrowbodies on order and they already have orders for CSeries & E195E2s.

I wonder how much the XLR sways things as far as the group is concerned.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:46 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
Come on Boeing! You need just one or two hundred B737s to cover all the cancellations in 2019/2020.

This isn't that far off the truth. Member smartplane explained in our MAX threads that the most efficient use of compensation credits would be to apply them to new aircraft purchases. The sticky point is they didn't have MAX on order so they weren't entitled to get credits.
Last edited by Revelation on Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Avgeek21
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:46 pm

No chance in hell this order will go to Boeing. This one is pure politics. Now that all companies are on government Covid bailouts there will be a big top-down push to buy ‘local’. The best aircraft for their operation won’t win. Politics will.
 
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:52 pm

I do not consider any scenario certain. I consider the -10 MAX a favorite though. I'm not certain how many A223 would be plausible for KLM either. A 3 way split adds too much in costs for 160 aircraft after I think about this, but a 2 way split has merits.

There is a cost for a split, but also a cost for a less optimal fleet. Because of the E2-195 order, I become less optimistic on the A220 and more on A321xLR. However, with the AF/KLM options on the A220, I do not rule it out. Can they achieve much synergy on fleet costs? That requires knowing more of the AF/KLM structure than I currently do.

Lightsaber
 
nicode
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:53 pm

If KLM goes with the A32xxx, they can transfer the 737's to Transavia (HV+TO).
 
Breathe
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:08 pm

frigatebird wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Definetely Boeings to lose. The Jets seem to be for Transavia (Dutch and French Branch) which are both NG operators. If this does not go to Boeing it would be the biggest surprise in a long long time...


Not just both Transavia branches but for KLM too. Candidates are A220, A32x and 737MAX. Agree this is Boeing's to lose, KLM CEO Elbers more than once expressed his preference for Boeing. However, he also left the door open for Airbus, if Boeing made another big mess of things. But with the 737MAX being back to service, an Airbus order would be a surprise. Toulouse will give it a try though.

Hope we'll get a decision before the end of this year, this has been postponed so many times already...

Elbers did say that KLM would take the A350 before Ben Smith switched the 787 and A350 orders between AF and KLM. So despite what Elbers would want, ultimately Ben Smith will make the final decision for the board to approve.

Like everyone else, most folk would expect Boeing to get this order. Air France-KLM S.A. will have upper hand with negotiating with the "threat" of ordering Airbus, so should be able to negotiate a very good deal with Boeing should they decide to stick with them. For Airbus, it will be a once in a generation chance to get a big order in their "home" country, unless they offer a very good deal that includes paying for retraining all the pilots, I would be shocked if they pulled off this order. But then again since the events of last year, almost anything is possible in the aviation these days.
 
Opus99
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:15 pm

Boeing SHOULD win the Order but nothing is certain. Airbus could also win, never say never in this industry. But as you would imagine Boeing will be very aggressive. Airbus may not feel the need to be so aggressive but I’m not in the deal so I don’t know.

Like lightsaber. I expect the MAX10 to take a substantial amount of the order if the MAX wins. Generally I expect many more MAX10 orders especially as the performance of the aircraft becomes known
 
Duke91
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:47 pm

KLM didnt have any MAX on order before, so there should not be any compensations to bring the price down. As the order is outside the US, anti-dumping laws should apply as well.

The only advantage here for Boeing is existing fleet commonality.

But what comes after? The 737 max will be the last iteration, while Airbus still has room for another generation and a half. At some point, you will have to jump ship to a new fleet, whether it will be Airbus or some new Boeing single aisles.

KLM may afford to be more forward looking, also as they wont get a negative margin order out of Boeing. Maybe they are looking for a potential A225/A322?

The chances for an Airbus order are much higher than for Southwest for the A223. And I remember a massive thread on a.net about that potential A223 Southwest order
 
factsonly
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:12 pm

Opus99 wrote:

- Boeing SHOULD win the Order but nothing is certain.

- Airbus could also win, never say never in this industry.

- But as you would imagine Boeing will be very aggressive.

- Airbus may not feel the need to be so aggressive but I’m not in the deal so I don’t know.



Just to help you make up your mind.

It is all about market dynamics, demand for new aircraft is currently low, while aircraft production is still relatively high......... so clever airlines order new aircraft NOW...... at a discount.

A number of people seem to think that Boeing MUST win this order.
If so, expect Airbus to be VERY AGGRESSIVE to ensure Boeing hurts .......and AF/KLM win on unit price!!

The two manufactuers know extremely well, how to ensure the other's win...... stings.

While some airlines know very well, how to play the two maufacturers against eachother.

So wait and see, as no deal is settled, until the ink is dry.
 
inkjet7
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:21 pm

Breathe wrote:
Elbers did say that KLM would take the A350 before Ben Smith switched the 787 and A350 orders between AF and KLM. So despite what Elbers would want, ultimately Ben Smith will make the final decision for the board to approve.

In fact KLM had requested to swap the wide body order to achieve long haul fleet commonality. As the number of 787's and 777's isn't too different, they can be operated on a single type rating.
I think the fact that Air France itself is left out of the new RFP increases the chance that AF might get Airbus and the others Boeing. Remaining question is what type they will order.
 
VV
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:28 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Definetely Boeings to lose. The Jets seem to be for Transavia (Dutch and French Branch) which are both NG operators. If this does not go to Boeing it would be the biggest surprise in a long long time...


Whatever the choice is, it will be powered by CFM Leap engines.
 
inkjet7
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I do not consider any scenario certain. I consider the -10 MAX a favorite though. I'm not certain how many A223 would be plausible for KLM either. A 3 way split adds too much in costs for 160 aircraft after I think about this, but a 2 way split has merits.

There is a cost for a split, but also a cost for a less optimal fleet. Because of the E2-195 order, I become less optimistic on the A220 and more on A321xLR. However, with the AF/KLM options on the A220, I do not rule it out. Can they achieve much synergy on fleet costs? That requires knowing more of the AF/KLM structure than I currently do.

Lightsaber

KLM is letting go of their 73G's as these are too small. In the end the E295's will replace the oldest E190's, depending on worldwide progress battling Covid. Amsterdam will be slot restricted again in due time, so no A223's I guess. To be flexible, it could be a number of MAX, with options to change the size in the future. Most KL routes are rather short, with a few exceptions like TLV and SVO. General a.net wisdom seems to favour the MAX for shorter sectors.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:51 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I do not consider any scenario certain. I consider the -10 MAX a favorite though. I'm not certain how many A223 would be plausible for KLM either. A 3 way split adds too much in costs for 160 aircraft after I think about this, but a 2 way split has merits.

There is a cost for a split, but also a cost for a less optimal fleet. Because of the E2-195 order, I become less optimistic on the A220 and more on A321xLR. However, with the AF/KLM options on the A220, I do not rule it out. Can they achieve much synergy on fleet costs? That requires knowing more of the AF/KLM structure than I currently do.

Lightsaber

KLM is letting go of their 73G's as these are too small. In the end the E295's will replace the oldest E190's, depending on worldwide progress battling Covid. Amsterdam will be slot restricted again in due time, so no A223's I guess. To be flexible, it could be a number of MAX, with options to change the size in the future. Most KL routes are rather short, with a few exceptions like TLV and SVO. General a.net wisdom seems to favour the MAX for shorter sectors.

I like to simulate aircraft performance to come to conclusions on what each airline is likely to buy; to simplify the MAX engines were optimized to reduce climb fuel burn, the A32xNEO for cruise, constrained by the optimum on the A321 for the 2 hour mission. This is just my opinion.

Basically the LEAP-1B is a 75 minute engine, the -1A a 120+ minute engine. Now, in low density configurations (UA MAX -10), it is a great TCON plane due to weight.

Alas the more I read, the more I agree no A220 at KLM. The question is TATL. I believe the xLR forces a strategy update on frequency and how many destinations, but that is just my opinion.

Lightsaber

PS, I used to support sales campaigns a long time ago.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
The sticky point is they didn't have MAX on order so they weren't entitled to get credits.


This is true. But those credits are issued by BCA. It is not a matter of law or something, so I would imagine that there is a degree of flexibility that can be used to entice an order. They can get this, but they are going to have to offer something that at least looks like a similar discount, whatever it ends up being called.

AF/KLM will be in the driver seat on this one. BCA are less the prom queen they used to be and more the 2AM pub floozie that pretty much has to take whatever she can get.

It may well be worth it for them to do what it takes to keep that line open, given what they will be facing this decade.
 
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keesje
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:08 am

737-8 Could fit KLM / Transavia very well. KLM is one of the last legacy 737 operators in Europe. But the XLR seems very usefull too for KLM Middle East, Africa and TATL routes. For A318/A319 replacement first A223 will arrive in a few months at AF. And E2's are introduced at KLM as 737-700 replacements. I expect a split order.
 
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Revelation
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:36 am

It seems to me it could be an interesting battle in the A vs B war if A decides to be aggressive, and I wonder why they would not be.

It seems Team A has been able to largely maintain narrowbody placements throughout COVID (less so with widebodies), they have a declared target of producing 60/month and aiming at 75/month, they probably have room for a KLM order via whatever few "opt-outs" they've had, they presumably want to keep a 60/40 split going, so why not do what it takes to poach a long term customer away from Boeing and keep feeding the beast?

On the KLM side, if they have aspirations for narrowbody TATL they would need XLR, so why not just go with Team A for A320s and A321s for shorter routes and XLRs for TATL? They aren't as huge as UA who can get away with splitting the fleet between A321 and 738, IMO.

I know there are obtuse politics at the various levels of the AF/KLM colossus, but at the end of the day Team A should be able to convince them that going with A320/A321/XLR for KLM makes more sense than MAX8/MAX10/XLR, no?

As mentioned above, given this is MAX's last iteration KL are going to have to transition to a new fleet at some point in time, and they already are as they shed -700s for E295s. Maybe they can get Team A to cough up the funds to train their pilots, mechanics and FAs on their stuff, and then KL and AF would have more overlap in their narrow body portfolios, and there probably would be some positive feedback from the governmental sector too.

So, isn't it a good time for Team A to make a move?
 
travaz
Posts: 1134
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 1:03 am

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:34 am

I don't know how many White tails B has but that could enter the equation. Again I have no knowledge but I think B may have quicker availability. This will be fun to watch.
 
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ikolkyo
Posts: 3326
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:43 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:35 am

Revelation wrote:
It seems to me it could be an interesting battle in the A vs B war if A decides to be aggressive, and I wonder why they would not be.

It seems Team A has been able to largely maintain narrowbody placements throughout COVID (less so with widebodies), they have a declared target of producing 60/month and aiming at 75/month, they probably have room for a KLM order via whatever few "opt-outs" they've had, they presumably want to keep a 60/40 split going, so why not do what it takes to poach a long term customer away from Boeing and keep feeding the beast?

On the KLM side, if they have aspirations for narrowbody TATL they would need XLR, so why not just go with Team A for A320s and A321s for shorter routes and XLRs for TATL? They aren't as huge as UA who can get away with splitting the fleet between A321 and 738, IMO.

I know there are obtuse politics at the various levels of the AF/KLM colossus, but at the end of the day Team A should be able to convince them that going with A320/A321/XLR for KLM makes more sense than MAX8/MAX10/XLR, no?

As mentioned above, given this is MAX's last iteration KL are going to have to transition to a new fleet at some point in time, and they already are as they shed -700s for E295s. Maybe they can get Team A to cough up the funds to train their pilots, mechanics and FAs on their stuff, and then KL and AF would have more overlap in their narrow body portfolios, and there probably would be some positive feedback from the governmental sector too.

So, isn't it a good time for Team A to make a move?


AMS is already pretty slot restricted, I feel like long range narrowbody flights is not the best use of them.
 
inkjet7
Posts: 265
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 am

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 4:47 am

keesje wrote:
737-8 Could fit KLM / Transavia very well. KLM is one of the last legacy 737 operators in Europe. But the XLR seems very usefull too for KLM Middle East, Africa and TATL routes. For A318/A319 replacement first A223 will arrive in a few months at AF. And E2's are introduced at KLM as 737-700 replacements. I expect a split order.


I think the E295's replacing some 73G's is only temporary. If/when traffic bounces back I'm sure KL needs larger mainline aircraft and they will in turn replace E190's. AMS will be slot restricted again. Skyteam's hub and spoke model doesn't exactly favour smaller planes on Atlantic routes.
 
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vhtje
Posts: 1344
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 6:07 am

CrimsonNL wrote:
I always thought KLM would benefit a great deal from having containerized A320's, for the hub operation at AMS. So much more efficient bag loading! However for obvious reasons I think it will be a MAX order..


Now this is interesting. In the AA 737 at CLT thread, I asked how AA coped with cross fleeting, if their A320-series aircraft were containerised. Turns out, AA’s A320-series are not containerised:

bigb wrote:
No US carrier loads their A320 with containers, it’s all bulk loaded as containers would slow the bag sorting down with the mass amount of domestic connections.


So which is more efficient? Containerised or non-containerised?
 
DCA350
Posts: 229
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 7:27 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 6:37 am

I think this goes BA but if KLM was smart I could see them pulling a similar move to United.. Mostly MAX but the XLR could definitely be useful for a lot of destinations that don't need a WB, or add a 2nd flight to a destination that can't fill two WBs..
 
marcelh
Posts: 1575
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 6:42 am

This is a Boeing order to lose. The 737 eco system is there (no additional costs for a company saved by tax payers money), the 737-8-200 makes perfect sense for Transavia, while a 737MAX8 and -10 combo makes sense for KLM. More seats and bigger planes to make it more “environmental friendly”.

IMHO slot restrictions at AMS isn’t an issue anymore with LEY opening up within a few years. HV will transfer some flights to this airport to free up slots at AMS.
 
inkjet7
Posts: 265
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 am

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 6:46 am

marcelh wrote:
This is a Boeing order to lose. The 737 eco system is there (no additional costs for a company saved by tax payers money), the 737-8-200 makes perfect sense for Transavia, while a 737MAX8 and -10 combo makes sense for KLM. More seats and bigger planes to make it more “environmental friendly”.

IMHO slot restrictions at AMS isn’t an issue anymore with LEY opening up within a few years. HV will transfer some flights to this airport to free up slots at AMS.


I don't think opening Lelystad while retaining current Amsterdam slots is politically achievable. I agree on the suggested aircraft types.
 
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CrimsonNL
Posts: 2208
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2007 6:34 pm

Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:47 am

vhtje wrote:
So which is more efficient? Containerised or non-containerised?


Well, if an AKH container shows up at the aircraft with 35 bags preloaded, they will be on board in just a minute or two. When instead a bulk loaded cart arrives and 35 bags have to be manually loaded, well, you can imagine.. With cargo all the more, as you can ship heavier pieces then when it's bulk loaded. An AKH/PKC can weigh a maximum of 1150kg IIRC, try bulk loading that!

An added benefit is improved baggage segregation. So say local bags, transfer bags, short connection etc. Yes this is also possible on the 737, but then you are likely still loading the bags on top of each other.
When you have to offload bags from passengers that are missing or denied boarding, you will have lists in which container the bag is loaded. Narrowing it down to +-35 bags, while with a bulk load the bag could be loaded among as much as 100 other bags.

When you have a lot of passengers on board connecting onto the same flight, you can already allocate an entire container (or more) to just these bags. Say you have 50 pax flying BCN-AMS-KBP. You can then load 2 containers in BCN, with only KBP bags. You don't have to sort them out in AMS anymore. If security regulations allow it, you could even load these 2 containers straight from one aircraft onto the next!
 
marcelh
Posts: 1575
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:18 am

inkjet7 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
This is a Boeing order to lose. The 737 eco system is there (no additional costs for a company saved by tax payers money), the 737-8-200 makes perfect sense for Transavia, while a 737MAX8 and -10 combo makes sense for KLM. More seats and bigger planes to make it more “environmental friendly”.

IMHO slot restrictions at AMS isn’t an issue anymore with LEY opening up within a few years. HV will transfer some flights to this airport to free up slots at AMS.


I don't think opening Lelystad while retaining current Amsterdam slots is politically achievable. I agree on the suggested aircraft types.


It might not be a "one for one" exchange of slots, but will archieve some growth. HV is very limited to expand at RTM and EIN and I can't see them opening a (small) base at GRQ, ENS, MST or NRN.

The suggested aircraft types don't reflect my personal preference, but I really can't see an Airbus NB fleet at HV/KLM. The A320neo is smaller than the current B737-800 and an all A321neo fleet is just too much for both HV and KLM. Also I don't see HV and/or KLM operating the A321neo(X)LR.
 
ben7x
Posts: 73
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2021 8:58 am

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:20 am

KLM: I expect 737 MAX 8 and MAX 10 as replacement for 738 and 739. E195E2 will replace 73G.
Transavia: 737 MAX 8 and MAX 10, maybe MAX 200 instead MAX 8. No replacement for 73G.

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