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airbuster wrote:- KLs 737 fleet is relatively small, especially once all 73Gs and 73J are gone.
ben7x wrote:The BBJ was acquired just a few years ago. I don‘t think that it is up for replacement anytime soon. I mean, for how many years did they fly their Fokker jet?
keesje wrote:airbuster wrote:Some points to take into account:
- AFKL want to consolidate as much as possible.
- French government is a large stakeholder and will want to boost French/EU economy thus inclination to Airbus order.
- KLs 737 fleet is relatively small, especially once all 73Gs and 73J are gone.
- There won’t be a 737 replacement after the Max so basically there’s no escaping changing fleets.
- Current A330 pilots at KLM don’t make it especially compelling to switch to A32N. CAPT/FOs on 330 are on different pay and rostering than short haul. They would need to retrain anyway. (I’d personally choose to move from 330fo to 320capt but a large group will just go to the 777/787.)
- Possible to consolidate mainline AF/KL fleets and separately consolidate HV/TO fleets in a A32X and 73M move. Splitting the order 50/50 and keeping the standards aligned in the 2 parts of the group.
- IAG has group orders for all airlines. Ben Smith has been vocal in wanting to follow this structure.
That said I reckon KL will want to have the max as it’s the easiest and less costly decision for them in the short term. But I wouldn’t underestimate the force of the points mentioned above to push for a surprise.
Good insights IMO. I remember they (fleet dev) used to do 15-20 yr market and network development scenarios, with a range of different fleet compositions and see how they work out, to get an idea on flexibility, adaptability of the different options. The last scenario I saw included a possible MD11 stretch, so a while agoBut I imagine they still have this simulations approach.
I think the 737-10 vs A321NEO business case will be a very interesting one for KLM. Those aircraft offer KLM capability they don't have at this stage but fits there network very well. If it becomes A321, it surely will have LEAPS, GE and KLM/AF have strong JV's.
FLALEFTY wrote:keesje wrote:airbuster wrote:Some points to take into account:
- AFKL want to consolidate as much as possible.
- French government is a large stakeholder and will want to boost French/EU economy thus inclination to Airbus order.
- KLs 737 fleet is relatively small, especially once all 73Gs and 73J are gone.
- There won’t be a 737 replacement after the Max so basically there’s no escaping changing fleets.
- Current A330 pilots at KLM don’t make it especially compelling to switch to A32N. CAPT/FOs on 330 are on different pay and rostering than short haul. They would need to retrain anyway. (I’d personally choose to move from 330fo to 320capt but a large group will just go to the 777/787.)
- Possible to consolidate mainline AF/KL fleets and separately consolidate HV/TO fleets in a A32X and 73M move. Splitting the order 50/50 and keeping the standards aligned in the 2 parts of the group.
- IAG has group orders for all airlines. Ben Smith has been vocal in wanting to follow this structure.
That said I reckon KL will want to have the max as it’s the easiest and less costly decision for them in the short term. But I wouldn’t underestimate the force of the points mentioned above to push for a surprise.
Good insights IMO. I remember they (fleet dev) used to do 15-20 yr market and network development scenarios, with a range of different fleet compositions and see how they work out, to get an idea on flexibility, adaptability of the different options. The last scenario I saw included a possible MD11 stretch, so a while ago
I think the 737-10 vs A321NEO business case will be a very interesting one for KLM. Those aircraft offer KLM capability they don't have at this stage but fits there network very well. If it becomes A321, it surely will have LEAPS, GE and KLM/AF have strong JV's.
In my opinion, I think this AF/KL narrow body procurement will be Airbus' to lose. While KL currently flies B737NG's, they probably aren't predisposed to buy to the MAX. True, there were some recent uncoordinated procurements in the alliance (the A220's for AF & the E195E2's for KL), but I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale. And in my opinion, the A32XNEO line probably best meets their needs in terms of capacities, range and "carbon friendliness".
While Airbus is making odd noises about not needing to be overly-competitive in the narrow body range due to Boeing's troubles, the AF/KL procurement is an important order for the EU to keep "in house". There is EU prestige at stake, plus jobs to be protected/added, which means there will be considerable political pressure for AF/KL to award this order to Airbus.
ben7x wrote:FLALEFTY wrote:keesje wrote:
Good insights IMO. I remember they (fleet dev) used to do 15-20 yr market and network development scenarios, with a range of different fleet compositions and see how they work out, to get an idea on flexibility, adaptability of the different options. The last scenario I saw included a possible MD11 stretch, so a while ago
I think the 737-10 vs A321NEO business case will be a very interesting one for KLM. Those aircraft offer KLM capability they don't have at this stage but fits there network very well. If it becomes A321, it surely will have LEAPS, GE and KLM/AF have strong JV's.
In my opinion, I think this AF/KL narrow body procurement will be Airbus' to lose. While KL currently flies B737NG's, they probably aren't predisposed to buy to the MAX. True, there were some recent uncoordinated procurements in the alliance (the A220's for AF & the E195E2's for KL), but I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale. And in my opinion, the A32XNEO line probably best meets their needs in terms of capacities, range and "carbon friendliness".
While Airbus is making odd noises about not needing to be overly-competitive in the narrow body range due to Boeing's troubles, the AF/KL procurement is an important order for the EU to keep "in house". There is EU prestige at stake, plus jobs to be protected/added, which means there will be considerable political pressure for AF/KL to award this order to Airbus.
They are not Lufthansa Group, where LHG orders the a/c for LH, OS, LX, EW, … and where they all have the same interior etc. They are not IAG which ordered the XLR and distributed it to EN and IB. They never were that much of a group apart from not competing with each other. I think, it would be clever for them to use synergy effects. But I don’t think that they will really start with that with this order. Maybe in the future, when capacity is needed and they want a „replacement“ for their A380, B77W and 744. They could order either 779 or A35K, for both airlines. But not now.
FLALEFTY wrote:keesje wrote:airbuster wrote:Some points to take into account:
- AFKL want to consolidate as much as possible.
- French government is a large stakeholder and will want to boost French/EU economy thus inclination to Airbus order.
- KLs 737 fleet is relatively small, especially once all 73Gs and 73J are gone.
- There won’t be a 737 replacement after the Max so basically there’s no escaping changing fleets.
- Current A330 pilots at KLM don’t make it especially compelling to switch to A32N. CAPT/FOs on 330 are on different pay and rostering than short haul. They would need to retrain anyway. (I’d personally choose to move from 330fo to 320capt but a large group will just go to the 777/787.)
- Possible to consolidate mainline AF/KL fleets and separately consolidate HV/TO fleets in a A32X and 73M move. Splitting the order 50/50 and keeping the standards aligned in the 2 parts of the group.
- IAG has group orders for all airlines. Ben Smith has been vocal in wanting to follow this structure.
That said I reckon KL will want to have the max as it’s the easiest and less costly decision for them in the short term. But I wouldn’t underestimate the force of the points mentioned above to push for a surprise.
Good insights IMO. I remember they (fleet dev) used to do 15-20 yr market and network development scenarios, with a range of different fleet compositions and see how they work out, to get an idea on flexibility, adaptability of the different options. The last scenario I saw included a possible MD11 stretch, so a while ago
I think the 737-10 vs A321NEO business case will be a very interesting one for KLM. Those aircraft offer KLM capability they don't have at this stage but fits there network very well. If it becomes A321, it surely will have LEAPS, GE and KLM/AF have strong JV's.
I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale.
Captaincurious wrote:KL and AF do not need fleet commonality since they have a reasonably big fleet. There are also issues between Netherlands and France on the control of the AF group. Therefore, KL has no pressure from the government or will even be encouraged to use the MAX to show its independence from AF.
RvA wrote:Captaincurious wrote:KL and AF do not need fleet commonality since they have a reasonably big fleet. There are also issues between Netherlands and France on the control of the AF group. Therefore, KL has no pressure from the government or will even be encouraged to use the MAX to show its independence from AF.
There is not needing it, but how about still benefitting from it? Could that be?
The last point seems curious as KL will order what the AF-KLM CEO decides to order, no?
A pillar of Air France-KLM’s plans is a long-overdue revamp of its fleet with planes that have lower operating costs, while reducing the number of different aircraft types deployed across the group. It is also aiming to make better use of its network structure, increasing both local traffic in Paris and its share of the premium market.
Smith also overcame Dutch objections earlier this year to push through an integration plan combining management of the Air France and KLM aircraft fleets, which were still being handled separately 15 years after the airlines merged.
FLALEFTY wrote:ben7x wrote:FLALEFTY wrote:
In my opinion, I think this AF/KL narrow body procurement will be Airbus' to lose. While KL currently flies B737NG's, they probably aren't predisposed to buy to the MAX. True, there were some recent uncoordinated procurements in the alliance (the A220's for AF & the E195E2's for KL), but I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale. And in my opinion, the A32XNEO line probably best meets their needs in terms of capacities, range and "carbon friendliness".
While Airbus is making odd noises about not needing to be overly-competitive in the narrow body range due to Boeing's troubles, the AF/KL procurement is an important order for the EU to keep "in house". There is EU prestige at stake, plus jobs to be protected/added, which means there will be considerable political pressure for AF/KL to award this order to Airbus.
They are not Lufthansa Group, where LHG orders the a/c for LH, OS, LX, EW, … and where they all have the same interior etc. They are not IAG which ordered the XLR and distributed it to EN and IB. They never were that much of a group apart from not competing with each other. I think, it would be clever for them to use synergy effects. But I don’t think that they will really start with that with this order. Maybe in the future, when capacity is needed and they want a „replacement“ for their A380, B77W and 744. They could order either 779 or A35K, for both airlines. But not now.
Interesting that you mention IAG as an example of group buying. It has been about 2 years since Willie Walsh announced a MOU with Boeing for 200~250 MAX'es, yet nothing has happened since then. The A321N-XLR's haven't even reached certification, much less deliveries (which may be in 2023), so EN and IB are still waiting and things may change in the meantime. The biggest member of IAG, BA has only partial fleet commonality with their smaller siblings and there has been no group ordering to start to correct that. Also, Brexit has hampered the practical application of the synergies that were expected when IAG was first formed.
As for LH Group, it consists of LH acquiring a hodge-podge of smaller EU airlines, all of whom were struggling financially even in the good times. Since the acquisitions, there is still much work for LH Group to do to rationalize these (mostly-aging) fleets. The parent group did order some B77W's for LX to replace part of their aging A340 fleet and they also arranged for the purchase of A220's to replace LX's odd-ball regional jet fleet, but to my knowledge, that has been the extent of it, so far.
So I guess that the AF/KL alliance appears to have the same operational similarities and issues of these two competing groups.
DN4CAAD wrote:[...] people still felt scared that a 737 went down.
VV wrote:Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?
VV wrote:Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?
inkjet7 wrote:VV wrote:Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?
I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.
VV wrote:inkjet7 wrote:VV wrote:Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?
I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.
Which financial part? The bailout?
AaronPMI wrote:FLALEFTY wrote:ben7x wrote:
They are not Lufthansa Group, where LHG orders the a/c for LH, OS, LX, EW, … and where they all have the same interior etc. They are not IAG which ordered the XLR and distributed it to EN and IB. They never were that much of a group apart from not competing with each other. I think, it would be clever for them to use synergy effects. But I don’t think that they will really start with that with this order. Maybe in the future, when capacity is needed and they want a „replacement“ for their A380, B77W and 744. They could order either 779 or A35K, for both airlines. But not now.
Interesting that you mention IAG as an example of group buying. It has been about 2 years since Willie Walsh announced a MOU with Boeing for 200~250 MAX'es, yet nothing has happened since then. The A321N-XLR's haven't even reached certification, much less deliveries (which may be in 2023), so EN and IB are still waiting and things may change in the meantime. The biggest member of IAG, BA has only partial fleet commonality with their smaller siblings and there has been no group ordering to start to correct that. Also, Brexit has hampered the practical application of the synergies that were expected when IAG was first formed.
As for LH Group, it consists of LH acquiring a hodge-podge of smaller EU airlines, all of whom were struggling financially even in the good times. Since the acquisitions, there is still much work for LH Group to do to rationalize these (mostly-aging) fleets. The parent group did order some B77W's for LX to replace part of their aging A340 fleet and they also arranged for the purchase of A220's to replace LX's odd-ball regional jet fleet, but to my knowledge, that has been the extent of it, so far.
So I guess that the AF/KL alliance appears to have the same operational similarities and issues of these two competing groups.
The main commonality of the IAG group is that the main narrowbody family across all airlines is the A320 series which is more than BAs only partial fleet commonality.
FLALEFTY wrote:How do you square that pronouncement with this press relese from the IAG web site:AaronPMI wrote:FLALEFTY wrote:
IThe only firm order placed since IAG was formed in 2009, which was intended to address future fleet commonality, was the 2019 order for 14 A321N-XLR's intended for EN and IB.
VV wrote:inkjet7 wrote:VV wrote:Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?
I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.
Which financial part? The bailout?
keesje wrote:VV wrote:inkjet7 wrote:
I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.
Which financial part? The bailout?
Loans. Some fail to see the difference between tax cuts, subsidies, gifts and loans. Some love to not know. For KLM it's loans (you have to pay back with interest).
For KLM a big MRO interest is the GE deal for CFM56-7 & Leap overhauls. But NEO's can also be ordered with Leaps.
tlecam wrote:TurboJet707 wrote:I am a bit hesitant to bring this up, but it seems nobody is talking about the 737 MAX's poor reputation among the general public. I for one think this will have to play a role in the decision making process sooner or later. I already imagine the headlines in the Telegraaf, Netherlands' biggest (and more than just a slight bit populist) newspaper: "KLM and Transavia buy disaster aircraft Boeing 737MAX!". I often read here that nobody cares about the plane they fly on and that all the MAX troubles are already forgotten, but I am not so sure this time. Many media will be more than happy to remind the public, time after time after time, about the MAX disasters and the total mess that Boeing made of it. Pre-covid, I was on a KL 737 (NG) at least twice a month and I hope these times will come back sooner or later. Being a very rational person, who knows a bit about aviation, I would still not feel totally comfortable boarding a MAX. Imagine how more emotional people would react...
Then, there is the fact that the A320 has a more spacious cabin (this is very noticeable) and a far more comfortable flight deck.
Further, I don't see Air France mainline go with the 737 anytime soon, they will stick with Airbus for short/medium haul. Going the A320/321 route could bring large economies of scale to the group.
So with this, in my view at least, it looks like the MAX is 3-0 behind. Could a much better price and earlier delivery slots make up for this?
('Buy European' is not really an important sentiment among the Dutch, it appears)
In the past, I have definitely been in the camp of people who believe that the general public typically has no idea what kind of plane they're flying on.
I do think that the MAX situation has the potential to make that less true, at least relative to the MAX planes. I don't have a good feel for whether the MAX sentiment will persevere through the world's rapid news cycles or not.
I also think it will be interesting to see whether there are differences in the US vs. elsewhere in the world. This tender will be an interesting test case.
DartHerald wrote:FLALEFTY wrote:How do you square that pronouncement with this press relese from the IAG web site:AaronPMI wrote:
"IAG has also converted 20 Airbus 320neo options, announced in August 2013, into firm orders. The aircraft will be delivered between 2020 and 2021 and can be used by any airline in the Group for fleet replacement.
These modern, fuel efficient aircraft will bring both cost efficiencies and environmental benefits to the airlines’ fleet"? (emphasis added by me)
from: https://www.iairgroup.com/en/newsroom/p ... -154143148
Opus99 wrote:https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21
And as we expected. Major for win Boeing
All 160 jets to be 737 MAX
AndoAv8R wrote:Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet
jbs2886 wrote:Opus99 wrote:https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21
And as we expected. Major for win Boeing
All 160 jets to be 737 MAX
Great catch. I wonder if its the MAX 8 200s for Transavia airlines and a MAX 8/10 mixture for KLM. Wasn't there a rumor that an unidentified order was placed a few years ago? Also, I wonder if 160 is order or order + options; given AF-KLM plans significant growth for Transavia, it is entirely possible its all orders.
aemoreira1981 wrote:jbs2886 wrote:Opus99 wrote:https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21
And as we expected. Major for win Boeing
All 160 jets to be 737 MAX
Great catch. I wonder if its the MAX 8 200s for Transavia airlines and a MAX 8/10 mixture for KLM. Wasn't there a rumor that an unidentified order was placed a few years ago? Also, I wonder if 160 is order or order + options; given AF-KLM plans significant growth for Transavia, it is entirely possible its all orders.
A MAX 8/10 mixture for both might actually make the most sense. So far, only FR has ordered the MAX 8 200 (for its group of airlines). Both need to replace 73Gs and 73Hs, and KLM its 739s. I suspect KLM may go more for MAX 10s as they need to up-gauge. It also helps KLM on its way to just 3 pilot groups (Embraer E-Jets, 737, and 777/787).
Opus99 wrote:AndoAv8R wrote:Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet
I thought that as well. Let’s wait and see what happens
The poster says two different sources within the company confirmed it.
Fell on my TL via retweet from an AV journalist
Opus99 wrote:https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21
And as we expected. Major for win Boeing
All 160 jets to be 737 MAX
marcelh wrote:Expected but -for me as a passenger- unfortunate news.
aemoreira1981 wrote:jbs2886 wrote:Opus99 wrote:https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21
And as we expected. Major for win Boeing
All 160 jets to be 737 MAX
Great catch. I wonder if its the MAX 8 200s for Transavia airlines and a MAX 8/10 mixture for KLM. Wasn't there a rumor that an unidentified order was placed a few years ago? Also, I wonder if 160 is order or order + options; given AF-KLM plans significant growth for Transavia, it is entirely possible its all orders.
A MAX 8/10 mixture for both might actually make the most sense. So far, only FR has ordered the MAX 8 200 (for its group of airlines). Both need to replace 73Gs and 73Hs, and KLM its 739s. I suspect KLM may go more for MAX 10s as they need to up-gauge. It also helps KLM on its way to just 3 pilot groups (Embraer E-Jets, 737, and 777/787).
MrBren wrote:marcelh wrote:Expected but -for me as a passenger- unfortunate news.
Same for me. I'm tall so I try to avoid travelling in B737.
AndoAv8R wrote:Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet
VS11 wrote:AndoAv8R wrote:Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet
Boeing is publishing its quarterly financials tomorrow 27 October...so it is likely they will announce it then.
frigatebird wrote:Heavierthanair wrote:I have always been puzzled about the Dutch aversion to buying European and even Dutch products. I mean, Airbus SE is registered in the Netherlands. So buying the 'bus is buying a "local" product.
There is no Dutch aversion against buying local. That being said, Airbus SE may be registered in The Netherlands, but this is just a paper exercise for tax reasons. Airbus has few employees in The Netherlands, just Airbus Defence and Space Netherlands (formerly Fokker Space) with just 200 employees. I believe Boeing's Netherlands office employs twice as many people... Surely, Airbus has some subcontractors in The Netherlands, but so does Boeing. It's comparable with fighter jets. The European products have just hardly any involvement in The Netherlands. That's why there is no national interest in buying European aircraft here, contrary to for example France, Germany, Spain and the UK.
marcogr12 wrote:Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?
marcogr12 wrote:Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?
marcogr12 wrote:Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?
MIflyer12 wrote:marcogr12 wrote:Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?
That gets down to difference in trip cost between a MAX7 and MAX8, and revenue potential of extra seats in a MAX7 vs. the 132 in an E2.
It doesn't mean they'll never get MAX7s but they ought to have some fairly specific circumstances in mind (routes, frequency profile, price elasticity of demand).
marcogr12 wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:marcogr12 wrote:Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?
That gets down to difference in trip cost between a MAX7 and MAX8, and revenue potential of extra seats in a MAX7 vs. the 132 in an E2.
It doesn't mean they'll never get MAX7s but they ought to have some fairly specific circumstances in mind (routes, frequency profile, price elasticity of demand).
But the MAX7 would be closer or a bit higher than their 737-700s and not to close to E2's 132 capacity, which would mean 156 -168, since the tiny fuselage stretch permits max cap of 173, i think, if i read correctly..The 738s intra-europe fly a 186-config.
