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jbs2886
Posts: 3664
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:45 pm

airbuster wrote:
- KLs 737 fleet is relatively small, especially once all 73Gs and 73J are gone.


KLM and Transavia's fleet is larger than Air France's A230-series fleet (or if you start randomly eliminating fleets, is much larger than the A320-series fleet if you remove A318s and A321-100s).
 
A388
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:17 pm

ben7x wrote:
The BBJ was acquired just a few years ago. I don‘t think that it is up for replacement anytime soon. I mean, for how many years did they fly their Fokker jet?


I think 100 years :spin: :spin: :spin: :spin:

A388
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:29 pm

keesje wrote:
airbuster wrote:
Some points to take into account:

- AFKL want to consolidate as much as possible.
- French government is a large stakeholder and will want to boost French/EU economy thus inclination to Airbus order.
- KLs 737 fleet is relatively small, especially once all 73Gs and 73J are gone.
- There won’t be a 737 replacement after the Max so basically there’s no escaping changing fleets.
- Current A330 pilots at KLM don’t make it especially compelling to switch to A32N. CAPT/FOs on 330 are on different pay and rostering than short haul. They would need to retrain anyway. (I’d personally choose to move from 330fo to 320capt but a large group will just go to the 777/787.)
- Possible to consolidate mainline AF/KL fleets and separately consolidate HV/TO fleets in a A32X and 73M move. Splitting the order 50/50 and keeping the standards aligned in the 2 parts of the group.
- IAG has group orders for all airlines. Ben Smith has been vocal in wanting to follow this structure.

That said I reckon KL will want to have the max as it’s the easiest and less costly decision for them in the short term. But I wouldn’t underestimate the force of the points mentioned above to push for a surprise.


Good insights IMO. I remember they (fleet dev) used to do 15-20 yr market and network development scenarios, with a range of different fleet compositions and see how they work out, to get an idea on flexibility, adaptability of the different options. The last scenario I saw included a possible MD11 stretch, so a while ago :old: But I imagine they still have this simulations approach.

I think the 737-10 vs A321NEO business case will be a very interesting one for KLM. Those aircraft offer KLM capability they don't have at this stage but fits there network very well. If it becomes A321, it surely will have LEAPS, GE and KLM/AF have strong JV's.


In my opinion, I think this AF/KL narrow body procurement will be Airbus' to lose. While KL currently flies B737NG's, they probably aren't predisposed to buy to the MAX. True, there were some recent uncoordinated procurements in the alliance (the A220's for AF & the E195E2's for KL), but I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale. And in my opinion, the A32XNEO line probably best meets their needs in terms of capacities, range and "carbon friendliness".

While Airbus is making odd noises about not needing to be overly-competitive in the narrow body range due to Boeing's troubles, the AF/KL procurement is an important order for the EU to keep "in house". There is EU prestige at stake, plus jobs to be protected/added, which means there will be considerable political pressure for AF/KL to award this order to Airbus.
 
ben7x
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Jul 14, 2021 9:32 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
keesje wrote:
airbuster wrote:
Some points to take into account:

- AFKL want to consolidate as much as possible.
- French government is a large stakeholder and will want to boost French/EU economy thus inclination to Airbus order.
- KLs 737 fleet is relatively small, especially once all 73Gs and 73J are gone.
- There won’t be a 737 replacement after the Max so basically there’s no escaping changing fleets.
- Current A330 pilots at KLM don’t make it especially compelling to switch to A32N. CAPT/FOs on 330 are on different pay and rostering than short haul. They would need to retrain anyway. (I’d personally choose to move from 330fo to 320capt but a large group will just go to the 777/787.)
- Possible to consolidate mainline AF/KL fleets and separately consolidate HV/TO fleets in a A32X and 73M move. Splitting the order 50/50 and keeping the standards aligned in the 2 parts of the group.
- IAG has group orders for all airlines. Ben Smith has been vocal in wanting to follow this structure.

That said I reckon KL will want to have the max as it’s the easiest and less costly decision for them in the short term. But I wouldn’t underestimate the force of the points mentioned above to push for a surprise.


Good insights IMO. I remember they (fleet dev) used to do 15-20 yr market and network development scenarios, with a range of different fleet compositions and see how they work out, to get an idea on flexibility, adaptability of the different options. The last scenario I saw included a possible MD11 stretch, so a while ago :old: But I imagine they still have this simulations approach.

I think the 737-10 vs A321NEO business case will be a very interesting one for KLM. Those aircraft offer KLM capability they don't have at this stage but fits there network very well. If it becomes A321, it surely will have LEAPS, GE and KLM/AF have strong JV's.


In my opinion, I think this AF/KL narrow body procurement will be Airbus' to lose. While KL currently flies B737NG's, they probably aren't predisposed to buy to the MAX. True, there were some recent uncoordinated procurements in the alliance (the A220's for AF & the E195E2's for KL), but I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale. And in my opinion, the A32XNEO line probably best meets their needs in terms of capacities, range and "carbon friendliness".

While Airbus is making odd noises about not needing to be overly-competitive in the narrow body range due to Boeing's troubles, the AF/KL procurement is an important order for the EU to keep "in house". There is EU prestige at stake, plus jobs to be protected/added, which means there will be considerable political pressure for AF/KL to award this order to Airbus.


They are not Lufthansa Group, where LHG orders the a/c for LH, OS, LX, EW, … and where they all have the same interior etc. They are not IAG which ordered the XLR and distributed it to EN and IB. They never were that much of a group apart from not competing with each other. I think, it would be clever for them to use synergy effects. But I don’t think that they will really start with that with this order. Maybe in the future, when capacity is needed and they want a „replacement“ for their A380, B77W and 744. They could order either 779 or A35K, for both airlines. But not now.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:18 pm

ben7x wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
keesje wrote:

Good insights IMO. I remember they (fleet dev) used to do 15-20 yr market and network development scenarios, with a range of different fleet compositions and see how they work out, to get an idea on flexibility, adaptability of the different options. The last scenario I saw included a possible MD11 stretch, so a while ago :old: But I imagine they still have this simulations approach.

I think the 737-10 vs A321NEO business case will be a very interesting one for KLM. Those aircraft offer KLM capability they don't have at this stage but fits there network very well. If it becomes A321, it surely will have LEAPS, GE and KLM/AF have strong JV's.


In my opinion, I think this AF/KL narrow body procurement will be Airbus' to lose. While KL currently flies B737NG's, they probably aren't predisposed to buy to the MAX. True, there were some recent uncoordinated procurements in the alliance (the A220's for AF & the E195E2's for KL), but I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale. And in my opinion, the A32XNEO line probably best meets their needs in terms of capacities, range and "carbon friendliness".

While Airbus is making odd noises about not needing to be overly-competitive in the narrow body range due to Boeing's troubles, the AF/KL procurement is an important order for the EU to keep "in house". There is EU prestige at stake, plus jobs to be protected/added, which means there will be considerable political pressure for AF/KL to award this order to Airbus.


They are not Lufthansa Group, where LHG orders the a/c for LH, OS, LX, EW, … and where they all have the same interior etc. They are not IAG which ordered the XLR and distributed it to EN and IB. They never were that much of a group apart from not competing with each other. I think, it would be clever for them to use synergy effects. But I don’t think that they will really start with that with this order. Maybe in the future, when capacity is needed and they want a „replacement“ for their A380, B77W and 744. They could order either 779 or A35K, for both airlines. But not now.


Interesting that you mention IAG as an example of group buying. It has been about 2 years since Willie Walsh announced a MOU with Boeing for 200~250 MAX'es, yet nothing has happened since then. The A321N-XLR's haven't even reached certification, much less deliveries (which may be in 2023), so EN and IB are still waiting and things may change in the meantime. The biggest member of IAG, BA has only partial fleet commonality with their smaller siblings and there has been no group ordering to start to correct that. Also, Brexit has hampered the practical application of the synergies that were expected when IAG was first formed.

As for LH Group, it consists of LH acquiring a hodge-podge of smaller EU airlines, all of whom were struggling financially even in the good times. Since the acquisitions, there is still much work for LH Group to do to rationalize these (mostly-aging) fleets. The parent group did order some B77W's for LX to replace part of their aging A340 fleet and they also arranged for the purchase of A220's to replace LX's odd-ball regional jet fleet, but to my knowledge, that has been the extent of it, so far.

So I guess that the AF/KL alliance appears to have the same operational similarities and issues of these two competing groups.
 
SA280
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Jul 14, 2021 10:42 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
keesje wrote:
airbuster wrote:
Some points to take into account:

- AFKL want to consolidate as much as possible.
- French government is a large stakeholder and will want to boost French/EU economy thus inclination to Airbus order.
- KLs 737 fleet is relatively small, especially once all 73Gs and 73J are gone.
- There won’t be a 737 replacement after the Max so basically there’s no escaping changing fleets.
- Current A330 pilots at KLM don’t make it especially compelling to switch to A32N. CAPT/FOs on 330 are on different pay and rostering than short haul. They would need to retrain anyway. (I’d personally choose to move from 330fo to 320capt but a large group will just go to the 777/787.)
- Possible to consolidate mainline AF/KL fleets and separately consolidate HV/TO fleets in a A32X and 73M move. Splitting the order 50/50 and keeping the standards aligned in the 2 parts of the group.
- IAG has group orders for all airlines. Ben Smith has been vocal in wanting to follow this structure.

That said I reckon KL will want to have the max as it’s the easiest and less costly decision for them in the short term. But I wouldn’t underestimate the force of the points mentioned above to push for a surprise.


Good insights IMO. I remember they (fleet dev) used to do 15-20 yr market and network development scenarios, with a range of different fleet compositions and see how they work out, to get an idea on flexibility, adaptability of the different options. The last scenario I saw included a possible MD11 stretch, so a while ago :old: But I imagine they still have this simulations approach.

I think the 737-10 vs A321NEO business case will be a very interesting one for KLM. Those aircraft offer KLM capability they don't have at this stage but fits there network very well. If it becomes A321, it surely will have LEAPS, GE and KLM/AF have strong JV's.


I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale.

Going for the same aircraft family has not been a business goal in their recent widebody fleet decision.

AF went for the A350, KL for the B787.
 
Captaincurious
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 2:32 am

KL and AF do not need fleet commonality since they have a reasonably big fleet. There are also issues between Netherlands and France on the control of the AF group. Therefore, KL has no pressure from the government or will even be encouraged to use the MAX to show its independence from AF.
 
RvA
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:44 am

Captaincurious wrote:
KL and AF do not need fleet commonality since they have a reasonably big fleet. There are also issues between Netherlands and France on the control of the AF group. Therefore, KL has no pressure from the government or will even be encouraged to use the MAX to show its independence from AF.


There is not needing it, but how about still benefitting from it? Could that be?
The last point seems curious as KL will order what the AF-KLM CEO decides to order, no?
 
AngMoh
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:03 am

RvA wrote:
Captaincurious wrote:
KL and AF do not need fleet commonality since they have a reasonably big fleet. There are also issues between Netherlands and France on the control of the AF group. Therefore, KL has no pressure from the government or will even be encouraged to use the MAX to show its independence from AF.


There is not needing it, but how about still benefitting from it? Could that be?
The last point seems curious as KL will order what the AF-KLM CEO decides to order, no?


One of the big issues in AF/KL is Ben Smith's shake-up and cost optimisation drive. He is stepping on a lot of toes.

From https://www.ft.com/content/04171ae0-540 ... 2eed0038b1

A pillar of Air France-KLM’s plans is a long-overdue revamp of its fleet with planes that have lower operating costs, while reducing the number of different aircraft types deployed across the group. It is also aiming to make better use of its network structure, increasing both local traffic in Paris and its share of the premium market.


Form https://www.reuters.com/article/airfran ... SL8N27L2CS

Smith also overcame Dutch objections earlier this year to push through an integration plan combining management of the Air France and KLM aircraft fleets, which were still being handled separately 15 years after the airlines merged.


The past of AF and KL buying their own fleets is not guaranteed in the future. Neither Airbus nor Boeing can say that the order is theirs to lose.
 
AaronPMI
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:12 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
ben7x wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

In my opinion, I think this AF/KL narrow body procurement will be Airbus' to lose. While KL currently flies B737NG's, they probably aren't predisposed to buy to the MAX. True, there were some recent uncoordinated procurements in the alliance (the A220's for AF & the E195E2's for KL), but I think this time the two allied companies will want the same fleet type for their larger narrow body aircraft needs to achieve better economies of scale. And in my opinion, the A32XNEO line probably best meets their needs in terms of capacities, range and "carbon friendliness".

While Airbus is making odd noises about not needing to be overly-competitive in the narrow body range due to Boeing's troubles, the AF/KL procurement is an important order for the EU to keep "in house". There is EU prestige at stake, plus jobs to be protected/added, which means there will be considerable political pressure for AF/KL to award this order to Airbus.


They are not Lufthansa Group, where LHG orders the a/c for LH, OS, LX, EW, … and where they all have the same interior etc. They are not IAG which ordered the XLR and distributed it to EN and IB. They never were that much of a group apart from not competing with each other. I think, it would be clever for them to use synergy effects. But I don’t think that they will really start with that with this order. Maybe in the future, when capacity is needed and they want a „replacement“ for their A380, B77W and 744. They could order either 779 or A35K, for both airlines. But not now.


Interesting that you mention IAG as an example of group buying. It has been about 2 years since Willie Walsh announced a MOU with Boeing for 200~250 MAX'es, yet nothing has happened since then. The A321N-XLR's haven't even reached certification, much less deliveries (which may be in 2023), so EN and IB are still waiting and things may change in the meantime. The biggest member of IAG, BA has only partial fleet commonality with their smaller siblings and there has been no group ordering to start to correct that. Also, Brexit has hampered the practical application of the synergies that were expected when IAG was first formed.

As for LH Group, it consists of LH acquiring a hodge-podge of smaller EU airlines, all of whom were struggling financially even in the good times. Since the acquisitions, there is still much work for LH Group to do to rationalize these (mostly-aging) fleets. The parent group did order some B77W's for LX to replace part of their aging A340 fleet and they also arranged for the purchase of A220's to replace LX's odd-ball regional jet fleet, but to my knowledge, that has been the extent of it, so far.

So I guess that the AF/KL alliance appears to have the same operational similarities and issues of these two competing groups.


The main commonality of the IAG group is that the main narrowbody family across all airlines is the A320 series which is more than BAs only partial fleet commonality.
 
Nicoeddf
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:57 am

DN4CAAD wrote:
[...] people still felt scared that a 737 went down.


Either that. Or nobody really cares and continues to have no clue about the aircraft involved while picking the cheapest flight on an online platform and steps happily inside any craft that appears on the gate.
 
VV
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:02 am

Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?
 
JonesNL
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 11:03 am

VV wrote:
Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?

Might, but the Dutch government also chipped in with a big sum and jobs wise Boeing has a much bigger presence in the Netherlands…
 
inkjet7
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 2:01 pm

VV wrote:
Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?


I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.
 
VV
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 2:13 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
VV wrote:
Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?


I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.


Which financial part? The bailout?
 
inkjet7
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:09 pm

VV wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
VV wrote:
Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?


I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.


Which financial part? The bailout?

The bottom line for the airlines. I meant to say it's a business deal. Perhaps more so than for Air France.That may be the reason AF is not part of the RFP.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:21 pm

AaronPMI wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
ben7x wrote:

They are not Lufthansa Group, where LHG orders the a/c for LH, OS, LX, EW, … and where they all have the same interior etc. They are not IAG which ordered the XLR and distributed it to EN and IB. They never were that much of a group apart from not competing with each other. I think, it would be clever for them to use synergy effects. But I don’t think that they will really start with that with this order. Maybe in the future, when capacity is needed and they want a „replacement“ for their A380, B77W and 744. They could order either 779 or A35K, for both airlines. But not now.


Interesting that you mention IAG as an example of group buying. It has been about 2 years since Willie Walsh announced a MOU with Boeing for 200~250 MAX'es, yet nothing has happened since then. The A321N-XLR's haven't even reached certification, much less deliveries (which may be in 2023), so EN and IB are still waiting and things may change in the meantime. The biggest member of IAG, BA has only partial fleet commonality with their smaller siblings and there has been no group ordering to start to correct that. Also, Brexit has hampered the practical application of the synergies that were expected when IAG was first formed.

As for LH Group, it consists of LH acquiring a hodge-podge of smaller EU airlines, all of whom were struggling financially even in the good times. Since the acquisitions, there is still much work for LH Group to do to rationalize these (mostly-aging) fleets. The parent group did order some B77W's for LX to replace part of their aging A340 fleet and they also arranged for the purchase of A220's to replace LX's odd-ball regional jet fleet, but to my knowledge, that has been the extent of it, so far.

So I guess that the AF/KL alliance appears to have the same operational similarities and issues of these two competing groups.


The main commonality of the IAG group is that the main narrowbody family across all airlines is the A320 series which is more than BAs only partial fleet commonality.


The only firm order placed since IAG was formed in 2009, which was intended to address future fleet commonality, was the 2019 order for 14 A321N-XLR's intended for EN and IB.
 
DartHerald
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:42 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
AaronPMI wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

IThe only firm order placed since IAG was formed in 2009, which was intended to address future fleet commonality, was the 2019 order for 14 A321N-XLR's intended for EN and IB.
How do you square that pronouncement with this press relese from the IAG web site:

"IAG has also converted 20 Airbus 320neo options, announced in August 2013, into firm orders. The aircraft will be delivered between 2020 and 2021 and can be used by any airline in the Group for fleet replacement.
These modern, fuel efficient aircraft will bring both cost efficiencies and environmental benefits to the airlines’ fleet"? (emphasis added by me)

from: https://www.iairgroup.com/en/newsroom/p ... -154143148
 
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keesje
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:47 pm

VV wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
VV wrote:
Do you think the fact the French government provides a bailout package to Air France would make a difference?


I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.


Which financial part? The bailout?


Loans. Some fail to see the difference between tax cuts, subsidies, gifts and loans. Some love to not know. For KLM it's loans (you have to pay back with interest).

For KLM a big MRO interest is the GE deal for CFM56-7 & Leap overhauls. But NEO's can also be ordered with Leaps.
 
VV
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:58 pm

keesje wrote:
VV wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:

I think in the end the financial part will play a significant role.


Which financial part? The bailout?


Loans. Some fail to see the difference between tax cuts, subsidies, gifts and loans. Some love to not know. For KLM it's loans (you have to pay back with interest).

For KLM a big MRO interest is the GE deal for CFM56-7 & Leap overhauls. But NEO's can also be ordered with Leaps.


I am pretty sure for AF it is an aid (or bailout).
And since CFM is 50% French, there is absolutely no doubt it would be a Leap engine.
Last edited by VV on Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:58 pm

tlecam wrote:
TurboJet707 wrote:
I am a bit hesitant to bring this up, but it seems nobody is talking about the 737 MAX's poor reputation among the general public. I for one think this will have to play a role in the decision making process sooner or later. I already imagine the headlines in the Telegraaf, Netherlands' biggest (and more than just a slight bit populist) newspaper: "KLM and Transavia buy disaster aircraft Boeing 737MAX!". I often read here that nobody cares about the plane they fly on and that all the MAX troubles are already forgotten, but I am not so sure this time. Many media will be more than happy to remind the public, time after time after time, about the MAX disasters and the total mess that Boeing made of it. Pre-covid, I was on a KL 737 (NG) at least twice a month and I hope these times will come back sooner or later. Being a very rational person, who knows a bit about aviation, I would still not feel totally comfortable boarding a MAX. Imagine how more emotional people would react...

Then, there is the fact that the A320 has a more spacious cabin (this is very noticeable) and a far more comfortable flight deck.
Further, I don't see Air France mainline go with the 737 anytime soon, they will stick with Airbus for short/medium haul. Going the A320/321 route could bring large economies of scale to the group.

So with this, in my view at least, it looks like the MAX is 3-0 behind. Could a much better price and earlier delivery slots make up for this?
('Buy European' is not really an important sentiment among the Dutch, it appears)


In the past, I have definitely been in the camp of people who believe that the general public typically has no idea what kind of plane they're flying on.

I do think that the MAX situation has the potential to make that less true, at least relative to the MAX planes. I don't have a good feel for whether the MAX sentiment will persevere through the world's rapid news cycles or not.

I also think it will be interesting to see whether there are differences in the US vs. elsewhere in the world. This tender will be an interesting test case.

I guess this could be the time that changes, but I doubt it. Most people have forgotten about the Max and are more hesitant to get on planes for another reason (Covid).
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:41 pm

DartHerald wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
AaronPMI wrote:
How do you square that pronouncement with this press relese from the IAG web site:

"IAG has also converted 20 Airbus 320neo options, announced in August 2013, into firm orders. The aircraft will be delivered between 2020 and 2021 and can be used by any airline in the Group for fleet replacement.
These modern, fuel efficient aircraft will bring both cost efficiencies and environmental benefits to the airlines’ fleet"? (emphasis added by me)

from: https://www.iairgroup.com/en/newsroom/p ... -154143148


Good catch. I stand corrected.
 
Opus99
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:32 pm

https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/stat ... 30093?s=21

And as we expected. Major for win Boeing

All 160 jets to be 737 MAX
 
jbs2886
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:38 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21

And as we expected. Major for win Boeing

All 160 jets to be 737 MAX


Great catch. I wonder if its the MAX 8 200s for Transavia airlines and a MAX 8/10 mixture for KLM. Wasn't there a rumor that an unidentified order was placed a few years ago? Also, I wonder if 160 is order or order + options; given AF-KLM plans significant growth for Transavia, it is entirely possible its all orders.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:44 pm

A must win for the gents in Chicago, glad to see it got done.
 
AndoAv8R
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:15 pm

Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet
 
Opus99
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:24 pm

AndoAv8R wrote:
Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet

I thought that as well. Let’s wait and see what happens

The poster says two different sources within the company confirmed it.

Fell on my TL via retweet from an AV journalist
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:04 am

jbs2886 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21

And as we expected. Major for win Boeing

All 160 jets to be 737 MAX


Great catch. I wonder if its the MAX 8 200s for Transavia airlines and a MAX 8/10 mixture for KLM. Wasn't there a rumor that an unidentified order was placed a few years ago? Also, I wonder if 160 is order or order + options; given AF-KLM plans significant growth for Transavia, it is entirely possible its all orders.


A MAX 8/10 mixture for both might actually make the most sense. So far, only FR has ordered the MAX 8 200 (for its group of airlines). Both need to replace 73Gs and 73Hs, and KLM its 739s. I suspect KLM may go more for MAX 10s as they need to up-gauge. It also helps KLM on its way to just 3 pilot groups (Embraer E-Jets, 737, and 777/787).
 
jbs2886
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:28 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21

And as we expected. Major for win Boeing

All 160 jets to be 737 MAX


Great catch. I wonder if its the MAX 8 200s for Transavia airlines and a MAX 8/10 mixture for KLM. Wasn't there a rumor that an unidentified order was placed a few years ago? Also, I wonder if 160 is order or order + options; given AF-KLM plans significant growth for Transavia, it is entirely possible its all orders.


A MAX 8/10 mixture for both might actually make the most sense. So far, only FR has ordered the MAX 8 200 (for its group of airlines). Both need to replace 73Gs and 73Hs, and KLM its 739s. I suspect KLM may go more for MAX 10s as they need to up-gauge. It also helps KLM on its way to just 3 pilot groups (Embraer E-Jets, 737, and 777/787).


It's off topic, but VietJet also ordered the MAX 8 200 (its not just Ryanair).
 
marcelh
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:12 am

Opus99 wrote:
AndoAv8R wrote:
Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet

I thought that as well. Let’s wait and see what happens

The poster says two different sources within the company confirmed it.

Fell on my TL via retweet from an AV journalist


Expected but -for me as a passenger- unfortunate news.
 
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seahawk
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:30 am

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21

And as we expected. Major for win Boeing

All 160 jets to be 737 MAX


That would be fantastic news for KLM/Transavia and Boeing.
 
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MrBren
Posts: 375
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:09 am

marcelh wrote:
Expected but -for me as a passenger- unfortunate news.


Same for me. I'm tall so I try to avoid travelling in B737.
 
76er
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:25 am

Still nothing in the news outlets here in the Pays-Bas.
 
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frigatebird
Posts: 1906
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:26 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/officialgmoore/status/1452742259200430093?s=21

And as we expected. Major for win Boeing

All 160 jets to be 737 MAX


Great catch. I wonder if its the MAX 8 200s for Transavia airlines and a MAX 8/10 mixture for KLM. Wasn't there a rumor that an unidentified order was placed a few years ago? Also, I wonder if 160 is order or order + options; given AF-KLM plans significant growth for Transavia, it is entirely possible its all orders.


A MAX 8/10 mixture for both might actually make the most sense. So far, only FR has ordered the MAX 8 200 (for its group of airlines). Both need to replace 73Gs and 73Hs, and KLM its 739s. I suspect KLM may go more for MAX 10s as they need to up-gauge. It also helps KLM on its way to just 3 pilot groups (Embraer E-Jets, 737, and 777/787).


Agree with you regarding the MAX 8 200, I don't think HV will order it. Most likely the the MAX-8 (they did actually have some kind deal pre-covid to lease a couple, more than likely cancelled now), and HV did say the wanted the MAX-10 too. For KL I expect the bulk to be MAX-8, with additional MAX-10. Without doubt they will have the flexibility to change the mix.

MrBren wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Expected but -for me as a passenger- unfortunate news.


Same for me. I'm tall so I try to avoid travelling in B737.


I was kind of hoping for a split order, A32x for KL and 737 for HV. Unfortunately this doesn't seem to happen.

But if you're tall, it's better to check the airline rather than the aircraft type. You'll be in for an unpleasant surprise with Vueling's A320 aircraft. You wish you'd be in a 737 with 31" seat pitch.
 
VS11
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:34 am

AndoAv8R wrote:
Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet


Boeing is publishing its quarterly financials tomorrow 27 October...so it is likely they will announce it then.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:57 am

VS11 wrote:
AndoAv8R wrote:
Wonder if the official announcement will wait for Dubai? not finding it mentioned anywhere else besides that tweet


Boeing is publishing its quarterly financials tomorrow 27 October...so it is likely they will announce it then.

Doubt it. Even after finishing evaluation the proposals as a result of the tender and selecting the winner, it will take quite while before all contracts are signed and the order will be firm. For the A350/787 order, it took years.

We will have to wait for the announcement of AF-KL, which will happen when they decide it's the right moment. Can't see the point of announcing it at Dubai though.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:59 am

It will be announced when the contract is signed. This could happen today, but it could also be in a couple of months time.

I expect that a significant part of the 160 planes will be acquired through leasing companies to make use of the earlier delivery slots. This could also influence the timing of the official announcement.
 
Kikko19
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:03 am

Congrats to B
 
hardheid
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Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:27 am

frigatebird wrote:
Heavierthanair wrote:
I have always been puzzled about the Dutch aversion to buying European and even Dutch products. I mean, Airbus SE is registered in the Netherlands. So buying the 'bus is buying a "local" product.


There is no Dutch aversion against buying local. That being said, Airbus SE may be registered in The Netherlands, but this is just a paper exercise for tax reasons. Airbus has few employees in The Netherlands, just Airbus Defence and Space Netherlands (formerly Fokker Space) with just 200 employees. I believe Boeing's Netherlands office employs twice as many people... Surely, Airbus has some subcontractors in The Netherlands, but so does Boeing. It's comparable with fighter jets. The European products have just hardly any involvement in The Netherlands. That's why there is no national interest in buying European aircraft here, contrary to for example France, Germany, Spain and the UK.


To add to this, Embrear's European HQ in Amsterdam South is located practically down the street from KLM's HQ in Amstelveen. Both offices are located alongside the Amsterdamse Bos.
 
docmtl
Posts: 72
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:31 am

Fokker and Embraer signed a MoU last week to provide maintenance and modifications to C-390 transport aircrafts and E2-195s. It remains to be seen how large an operation this is going to become and the impact on local jobs and tech devellopment.
 
marcogr12
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:49 pm

Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?
 
PHLspecial
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:03 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?

UA has the Max 8,9,10 on order as well. Probably can fill more passengers for the short hops across the EU. Max 7 has less passengers more range. How I see, KLM needs way more seats than range.
 
Avgeek21
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:04 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?


I’d say it’s too close to the E195-E2 in terms of seat count and a higher CASM? The E2 has good range and can cover pretty well all it needs. 132 seats on the E2 and if demands warrant it a MAX 8 with either 186 seats or 166 with a proper Business Class. Oh wait, this is Europe…;-)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:08 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?


That gets down to difference in trip cost between a MAX7 and MAX8, and revenue potential of extra seats in a MAX7 vs. the 132 in an E2.

It doesn't mean they'll never get MAX7s but they ought to have some fairly specific circumstances in mind (routes, frequency profile, price elasticity of demand).
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:18 pm

The news about the order is premature and only reported by a single Dutch Twitter account.

I hear no final decision has been made (yet).

Cheers!: wave:
 
marcogr12
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:07 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
marcogr12 wrote:
Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?


That gets down to difference in trip cost between a MAX7 and MAX8, and revenue potential of extra seats in a MAX7 vs. the 132 in an E2.

It doesn't mean they'll never get MAX7s but they ought to have some fairly specific circumstances in mind (routes, frequency profile, price elasticity of demand).


But the MAX7 would be closer or a bit higher than their 737-700s and not to close to E2's 132 capacity, which would mean 156 -168, since the tiny fuselage stretch permits max cap of 173, i think, if i read correctly..The 738s intra-europe fly a 186-config.
 
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Polot
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:09 pm

marcogr12 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
marcogr12 wrote:
Why would they go for the MAX8 and -10 and not include the -7 too for thinner routes or when demand is low?


That gets down to difference in trip cost between a MAX7 and MAX8, and revenue potential of extra seats in a MAX7 vs. the 132 in an E2.

It doesn't mean they'll never get MAX7s but they ought to have some fairly specific circumstances in mind (routes, frequency profile, price elasticity of demand).


But the MAX7 would be closer or a bit higher than their 737-700s and not to close to E2's 132 capacity, which would mean 156 -168, since the tiny fuselage stretch permits max cap of 173, i think, if i read correctly..The 738s intra-europe fly a 186-config.

Is that worth it though? How many destinations is KLM serving where a E195E2 is too small yet a 738 is too big?
 
Sooner787
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:12 pm

Hope this rumored Max order for KLM proves accurate,

I think the KLM livery would look great on a Max 8 and/or Max 10
 
Prost
Posts: 2721
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:29 pm

How much of an increase in trip costs would there be between a Max7 and a Max8? Does this get in to the territory of ‘if you sell half of the increase in number of seats you’ll make up the difference?’
 
MEA-707
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:30 pm

It might not even surprise me if they let a well informed person leak a pending Boeing order on Twitter hoping that Airbus will come with a last minute price drop which they can't refuse.
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