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Opus99
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:31 pm

MEA-707 wrote:
It might not even surprise me if they let a well informed person leak a pending Boeing order on Twitter hoping that Airbus will come with a last minute price drop which they can't refuse.

I mean, then you give it bloomberg if you want to do that
 
Glareskin
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Fri Oct 29, 2021 12:44 am

The E2 order has changed the situation imo. It moved the Embraers into the 737 battlefield. And KLM loves the E series. The first generation E jets were already posirive, but the E2 is a passenger favorite. Sooo quiet.
So no chance for the A220. But the bigger A320, the A321 and potentially the long range version would be perfect complementary to the E2.
 
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keesje
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:32 pm

Glareskin wrote:
The E2 order has changed the situation imo. It moved the Embraers into the 737 battlefield. And KLM loves the E series. The first generation E jets were already posirive, but the E2 is a passenger favorite. Sooo quiet.
So no chance for the A220. But the bigger A320, the A321 and potentially the long range version would be perfect complementary to the E2.


The E195-E2 is indeed very very close to the A220-100 in almost every metric (Column A & B). Image

The A220-300 and possible -500 (Column D & F) offer significantly more seat capacity. Although not as many seats as A320 & 737-8.

It seems the NB tender includes Transavia, so the most interestingh question will be if Boeing succeeds in selling KLM/Transavia the 737 MAX, or Airbus is able to break Boeings hold with the A321NEO's everybody seems to prefer these days.
 
JonesNL
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:13 pm

Making Transavia an all A321 airline with some XLR's in the mix will be a winning strategy. They can use it for New destinations and expand existing network. 737-10 is only for expansion without New destinations. Both are valid choices, but seeing that markets forecasts that the juice is in the leisure market the LCC will get a bigger market share and opportunities to grow...
 
Asiaflyer
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:31 pm

Headline on Reuters today saying A321 is front runner for KLM NB order and fleet decision by board can be imminent, citing unnamed source.
So maybe the Leeham article is referring to KLM after all.
 
Opus99
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:53 pm

 
Opus99
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:56 pm

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-12-08/

Seems Airbus will take KLM. Boeing remains in contention for Transavia. Extremely sad Boeing will lose out on KLM. But nobody to blame but themselves
 
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Polot
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:04 pm

Still don’t think Leeham was referring to KLM. As far as I can tell KLM is down to Max vs Neo, with the A220 not really in discussions. Note none of the leaks ever mention that plane.

The source also says that it is coming down to the wire and last minute discussions can go either way. Leeham sounds more confident about mystery order.
Last edited by Polot on Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:05 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-takes-lead-bid-win-dutch-klm-jet-deal-sources-2021-12-08/

Seems Airbus will take KLM. Boeing remains in contention for Transavia. Extremely sad Boeing will lose out on KLM. But nobody to blame but themselves


They seem to mention that it still could go to Boeing, but surprised they wouldn’t go for just one fleet for Transavia and KLM. Would definitely help with cost reduction.

I wonder if the XLR has a role…
 
Opus99
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:07 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-takes-lead-bid-win-dutch-klm-jet-deal-sources-2021-12-08/

Seems Airbus will take KLM. Boeing remains in contention for Transavia. Extremely sad Boeing will lose out on KLM. But nobody to blame but themselves


They seem to mention that it still could go to Boeing, but surprised they wouldn’t go for just one fleet for Transavia and KLM. Would definitely help with cost reduction.

I wonder if the XLR has a role…

At KLM? It certainly can play a role
 
Duke91
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:43 pm

Polot wrote:
Still don’t think Leeham was referring to KLM. As far as I can tell KLM is down to Max vs Neo, with the A220 not really in discussions. Note none of the leaks ever mention that plane.

The source also says that it is coming down to the wire and last minute discussions can go either way. Leeham sounds more confident about mystery order.


So those two potential A220 customers may still be out there, with the KLM order being independent from the report by Leeham? (makes sense as they did not report A220's for KLM in the article)

Oh lord, who could the mysterious one be? LOT? And the other one ordering A220's?
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:17 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-takes-lead-bid-win-dutch-klm-jet-deal-sources-2021-12-08/

Seems Airbus will take KLM. Boeing remains in contention for Transavia. Extremely sad Boeing will lose out on KLM. But nobody to blame but themselves


It's possible that KLM isn't the airline specified, I don't think Leeham would get the detail of it being an exclusive Boeing operator wrong. Though if it is that'd be quite a big coup, is it'd tilt AF's decision towards the A32Xneo as well (though you'd have AF as more likely to go for the A32X anyway).
 
76er
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:25 pm

Or just tactics from KL to get an even better deal from B. Elbers always likes to pride himself on how efficient his mainline pilot groups are with just one short haul group (737) and soon one for longhaul (777/787). Having said that, I’m still rooting for A. And by the way, are we talking just the 321N? No 320s? That would result in quite the capacity gap with the KLC E2.
 
SA280
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:30 pm

I honestly can't foresee a vast A321XLR application for KLM.

There aren't additional North American east coast secondary cities to be added to AMS' network. Every relevant market is already well served with widebodies - the potential XLR market for KLM is much smaller than it is for UA, AA or DL from their east coast hubs to the plenty of secondary European cities.

Talking about West and Central Africa, the A321XLR might be the right size for many markets. However, its lack of cargo and luggage capacity is a no go on those "belly-heavy" routes, reason why I do see them to keep being served with widebodies on a less than daily basis.

Certainly there's room for the A321neo (not the extra-weight XLR version) within KLM`s European network, especially considering AMS is slot constrained and upgauging their narrowbody fleet will be the only way to expand.

However, this is long term and we still have lots of uncertainty regarding market growth. Even before the pandemic, this was already a mature market, with slow growth over the years. So, a low-risk upgauging move would take a while to be completed, and we would have NGs and NEOs flying aside for a long time.

For me, Airbus value proposition must be extremely aggressive to make KLM to move away from the B737, considering the huge transition costs of such a
replacement and the fact that the aircraft themselves (A320neo vs MAX 8, A321neo vs MAX 10) are quite similar in economics and both offer the range capability KLM seems to need.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:43 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
It's possible that KLM isn't the airline specified, I don't think Leeham would get the detail of it being an exclusive Boeing operator wrong.


Just my two cents - and I'm not referring to KLM in this regard - but I think people might not be making the differentiation between "exclusive Boeing operator" and "exclusive Boeing operator [at mainline]". IE the mainline bit may have been implied.

For example if one was saying "TAP is an exclusive Airbus operator" you would be correct at face value and IMO it's not wrong to make this statement. OTOH one could also bring up the technicality that Portugalia (branded as TAP Express) has Embraers (nd thus argue that TAP is not in fact an exclusive Airbus operator.

JonesNL wrote:
They seem to mention that it still could go to Boeing, but surprised they wouldn’t go for just one fleet for Transavia and KLM. Would definitely help with cost reduction.

I wonder if the XLR has a role…

MrHMSH wrote:
Though if it is that'd be quite a big coup, is it'd tilt AF's decision towards the A32Xneo as well (though you'd have AF as more likely to go for the A32X anyway).


IMO it would be a mess for AFKL to operate all four next generation narrowbodies (E195E2, A220, A321neo and 737MAX) as well as both next generation widebodies (787 and A350). The whole point of operating as a group is to find such efficiencies, no? Surely for this reason one family can be eliminated.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:48 pm

zkojq wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
It's possible that KLM isn't the airline specified, I don't think Leeham would get the detail of it being an exclusive Boeing operator wrong.


Just my two cents - and I'm not referring to KLM in this regard - but I think people might not be making the differentiation between "exclusive Boeing operator" and "exclusive Boeing operator [at mainline]". IE the mainline bit may have been implied.

For example if one was saying "TAP is an exclusive Airbus operator" you would be correct at face value and IMO it's not wrong to make this statement. OTOH one could also bring up the technicality that Portugalia (branded as TAP Express) has Embraers (nd thus argue that TAP is not in fact an exclusive Airbus operator.

JonesNL wrote:
They seem to mention that it still could go to Boeing, but surprised they wouldn’t go for just one fleet for Transavia and KLM. Would definitely help with cost reduction.

I wonder if the XLR has a role…

MrHMSH wrote:
Though if it is that'd be quite a big coup, is it'd tilt AF's decision towards the A32Xneo as well (though you'd have AF as more likely to go for the A32X anyway).


IMO it would be a mess for AFKL to operate all four next generation narrowbodies (E195E2, A220, A321neo and 737MAX) as well as both next generation widebodies (787 and A350). The whole point of operating as a group is to find such efficiencies, no? Surely for this reason one family can be eliminated.


Even allowing for the distinction between mainline and CityHopper, KLM itself has A330s, not due to be retired until 2025. Not an oversight I'd expect.
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:50 pm

76er wrote:
Or just tactics from KL to get an even better deal from B. Elbers always likes to pride himself on how efficient his mainline pilot groups are with just one short haul group (737) and soon one for longhaul (777/787). Having said that, I’m still rooting for A. And by the way, are we talking just the 321N? No 320s? That would result in quite the capacity gap with the KLC E2.


Elbers is not making this decision, however. It's Ben Smith who has the final word.

As I mentioned a little bit back in this thread, KLM is seeking for a B737-successor that has more life left in it. It sees the MAX as the last version of the B737, while it does see that the A220 and the A320neo has room for further development, hence investing in the type and switch can make sense. They also see that eventually, the MAX will need a replacement as well and that conversion of pilots is needed then. So, converting pilots is coming one way or another. The question is, do they take it now or later?

A split order between Airbus for KLM and Boeing for Transavia would surprise me a bit, but can see it to keep costs at Transavia low, which will help them in maintaining its cost structure.

If they select the A321neo for KLM, the gap with KLC's E2s is indeed quite substantial. Is this where the A220 comes along? The E2s are leased for ten years if I recall, so that might work to replace them then with new A220-100s.

Interesting times!

Cheers! :wave:
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:56 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1468587794817814532?s=21

Uh oh. Looks like it might be KLM


No, the A220 is not involved so the mystery customer is not KLM.

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-takes-lead-bid-win-dutch-klm-jet-deal-sources-2021-12-08/

Seems Airbus will take KLM. Boeing remains in contention for Transavia. Extremely sad Boeing will lose out on KLM. But nobody to blame but themselves


It's all very interesting speculation of course, but a few weeks ago the same kind of 'unnamed sources from within the company' said Boeing had won this tender. Then and now KLM said the decision hasn't been made. As the airline subject of this thread is not KLM, I suggest we move the discussion of a possible Airbus order for KLM to its own existing thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1462637&start=150
 
me89
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 4:59 pm

Are we all may be looking too much into the word "airline"? What if KLM gets the A321neo and the potential A220 order would be extra's for AF? OR..... It pushes Airbus to launch the A220-500 which will end up with KLM. A220-500 & A321 combo would work out nicely for them too. Lots of assumptions but a possibility. HV would still be flying MAX but could switch over to A32X's as their French counterparts.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 5:03 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
If they select the A321neo for KLM, the gap with KLC's E2s is indeed quite substantial. Is this where the A220 comes along? The E2s are leased for ten years if I recall, so that might work to replace them then with new A220-100s.

Oh dear, the first E2's have arrived only this year, and the next ones will be delivered through 2025. And you are thinking KLM have already decided to replace them with A220s? :white:

As for the gap between the KLC aircraft and the A321, might I suggest a not too unsuccessful aircraft like the A320neo? :spin:
 
FlyingHonu001
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:12 pm

frigatebird wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
If they select the A321neo for KLM, the gap with KLC's E2s is indeed quite substantial. Is this where the A220 comes along? The E2s are leased for ten years if I recall, so that might work to replace them then with new A220-100s.

Oh dear, the first E2's have arrived only this year, and the next ones will be delivered through 2025. And you are thinking KLM have already decided to replace them with A220s? :white:

As for the gap between the KLC aircraft and the A321, might I suggest a not too unsuccessful aircraft like the A320neo? :spin:


If the A321 for KL does goes ahead, than they will be dedicated to the European mainline fleet I believe. Cityhopper which operates as as seperate shorthaul regional feeder is pretty much content with their Embraers at the moment.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:29 pm

On a side note. If KLM gets the A321NEO's, then our King has a problem, he needs to transfer to Transavia :lol:
 
FluidFlow
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:35 pm

IIRC AF had the plan to have a A220/A321 fleet. This makes a lot of sense if AF somewhat knows that the A225 will be coming. If that is somewhat soon (2025-2027) then a possible option for KLM could be to have the same NB fleet with the A223, A225 and A321 (Especially as there are newer 737-800 on property that can fly for KLM until the A225s are there and then be sold/go off lease or be given to transavia). Cityhopper can still operate the E2s, the same will happen for HOP.

So the AFKLM NB fleet will be A221 (AF), A223 (AFKLM), A225 (AFKLM) and A321 (AFKLM). Transavia will move to the 737-8200 because it is the best 200 seater out there. Both regional subsidiaries will share E2 commonality. That is pretty lean for their NB line up.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:08 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
zkojq wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
It's possible that KLM isn't the airline specified, I don't think Leeham would get the detail of it being an exclusive Boeing operator wrong.


Just my two cents - and I'm not referring to KLM in this regard - but I think people might not be making the differentiation between "exclusive Boeing operator" and "exclusive Boeing operator [at mainline]". IE the mainline bit may have been implied.

For example if one was saying "TAP is an exclusive Airbus operator" you would be correct at face value and IMO it's not wrong to make this statement. OTOH one could also bring up the technicality that Portugalia (branded as TAP Express) has Embraers (nd thus argue that TAP is not in fact an exclusive Airbus operator.

JonesNL wrote:
They seem to mention that it still could go to Boeing, but surprised they wouldn’t go for just one fleet for Transavia and KLM. Would definitely help with cost reduction.

I wonder if the XLR has a role…

MrHMSH wrote:
Though if it is that'd be quite a big coup, is it'd tilt AF's decision towards the A32Xneo as well (though you'd have AF as more likely to go for the A32X anyway).


IMO it would be a mess for AFKL to operate all four next generation narrowbodies (E195E2, A220, A321neo and 737MAX) as well as both next generation widebodies (787 and A350). The whole point of operating as a group is to find such efficiencies, no? Surely for this reason one family can be eliminated.


Even allowing for the distinction between mainline and CityHopper, KLM itself has A330s, not due to be retired until 2025. Not an oversight I'd expect.


Like I said, I'm not referring to KLM in this regard.
 
AMS18C36C
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:31 pm

frigatebird wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
If they select the A321neo for KLM, the gap with KLC's E2s is indeed quite substantial. Is this where the A220 comes along? The E2s are leased for ten years if I recall, so that might work to replace them then with new A220-100s.

Oh dear, the first E2's have arrived only this year, and the next ones will be delivered through 2025. And you are thinking KLM have already decided to replace them with A220s? :white:

As for the gap between the KLC aircraft and the A321, might I suggest a not too unsuccessful aircraft like the A320neo? :spin:


My thoughts exactly. I don't understand the obsession with the A220. Can an A32X-family pilot fly the A220? Do the types have any commonality? If not, it makes little sense to operate a third narrowbody family.
 
DartHerald
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:37 pm

Dutchy wrote:
On a side note. If KLM gets the A321NEO's, then our King has a problem, he needs to transfer to Transavia :lol:


Can't he retrain, like all the other KLM 737 pilots? Or do they all have to transfer to Transavia - and hope that Transavia stays with the 737!
 
Opus99
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:58 pm

AMS18C36C wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
If they select the A321neo for KLM, the gap with KLC's E2s is indeed quite substantial. Is this where the A220 comes along? The E2s are leased for ten years if I recall, so that might work to replace them then with new A220-100s.

Oh dear, the first E2's have arrived only this year, and the next ones will be delivered through 2025. And you are thinking KLM have already decided to replace them with A220s? :white:

As for the gap between the KLC aircraft and the A321, might I suggest a not too unsuccessful aircraft like the A320neo? :spin:


My thoughts exactly. I don't understand the obsession with the A220. Can an A32X-family pilot fly the A220? Do the types have any commonality? If not, it makes little sense to operate a third narrowbody family.

It’s new, it’s a passenger favourite by far compared to other Narrow bodies. so of course people would argue it into any fleet that they can and for many airlines it can work but it doesn’t make it the optimal choice all the time
 
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Dutchy
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:17 pm

DartHerald wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
On a side note. If KLM gets the A321NEO's, then our King has a problem, he needs to transfer to Transavia :lol:


Can't he retrain, like all the other KLM 737 pilots? Or do they all have to transfer to Transavia - and hope that Transavia stays with the 737!


The Dutch government jet is a Boeing 737BBJ, so sure he can retrain, but then he can't fly the government jet anymore. One of the parameters why the BBJ was chosen is because KLM could maintain it and its pilots fly it. Unofficially Wim Lex has a hobby, flying planes with KLM, first the Fokker 100/70 and now the 737
 
Avgeek21
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:05 am

KLM will go down A321Neo route and transavia will likely take the MAX according to unnamed sources.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-takes-lead-bid-win-dutch-klm-jet-deal-sources-2021-12-08/
 
Captaincurious
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:18 am

787s fault again. maybe Ryanair will be in a great position now to negotiate their ultra low price max
 
FlyingViking
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:52 am

Dutchy wrote:
On a side note. If KLM gets the A321NEO's, then our King has a problem, he needs to transfer to Transavia :lol:


Or the Dutch Government will have to get an A319ACJ.
 
marcelh
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:30 am

Dutchy wrote:
On a side note. If KLM gets the A321NEO's, then our King has a problem, he needs to transfer to Transavia :lol:

TUI and Corendon are also possible. Or -out of the box- the RNLNavy is considering some Poseidons…. :cloudnine:
 
airbuster
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:39 am

FlyingViking wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
On a side note. If KLM gets the A321NEO's, then our King has a problem, he needs to transfer to Transavia :lol:


Or the Dutch Government will have to get an A319ACJ.


What the king will have to do is really not AFKLs problem. Furthermore you have TUI and Corendon flying Dutch registered 737s, the Air Force is also possible. Having operational support for the government 737 is one thing, what the king does with his flying is another.

The state F70 used to be operated by Martinair iirc before KLM took that over.

I’d love to see the A321n at KLM but will believe it when I see it.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:00 am

SA280 wrote:
I honestly can't foresee a vast A321XLR application for KLM.

There aren't additional North American east coast secondary cities to be added to AMS' network. Every relevant market is already well served with widebodies - the potential XLR market for KLM is much smaller than it is for UA, AA or DL from their east coast hubs to the plenty of secondary European cities.

Talking about West and Central Africa, the A321XLR might be the right size for many markets. However, its lack of cargo and luggage capacity is a no go on those "belly-heavy" routes, reason why I do see them to keep being served with widebodies on a less than daily basis.

Certainly there's room for the A321neo (not the extra-weight XLR version) within KLM`s European network, especially considering AMS is slot constrained and upgauging their narrowbody fleet will be the only way to expand.

However, this is long term and we still have lots of uncertainty regarding market growth. Even before the pandemic, this was already a mature market, with slow growth over the years. So, a low-risk upgauging move would take a while to be completed, and we would have NGs and NEOs flying aside for a long time.

For me, Airbus value proposition must be extremely aggressive to make KLM to move away from the B737, considering the huge transition costs of such a
replacement and the fact that the aircraft themselves (A320neo vs MAX 8, A321neo vs MAX 10) are quite similar in economics and both offer the range capability KLM seems to need.


There are many WB routes that fly half empty some of the season, the XLR would be perfect for those routes. They can also fly to lots of secondary cities in the US. Opportunity is definitely there if you know where to look...
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:41 am

frigatebird wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
If they select the A321neo for KLM, the gap with KLC's E2s is indeed quite substantial. Is this where the A220 comes along? The E2s are leased for ten years if I recall, so that might work to replace them then with new A220-100s.

Oh dear, the first E2's have arrived only this year, and the next ones will be delivered through 2025. And you are thinking KLM have already decided to replace them with A220s? :white:

As for the gap between the KLC aircraft and the A321, might I suggest a not too unsuccessful aircraft like the A320neo? :spin:


As the Reuters and Bloomberg reports are quite specific on the A321neo, I am of the impression the A320neo is not part of the order. Which leaves the gap with the E195-E2.

And I'm very much aware that they are just arriving. But, I'm also very aware that they are "only" leased for a period of ten years if I recall correctly. And that the new narrowbodies ordered are here to stay for a longer period and will start to arrive from 2023-4?. So, what will happen with KLC's fleet when the leases end of the E2 end by 2031? I'm not suggesting they're out of the door now...

Anyway, talk of the town is a split order; KLM going Airbus, Transavia sticking with Boeing. But AF-KLM is stressing no decision has been made but is imminent.

Cheers! :wave:
 
marcelh
Posts: 1626
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321n

Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:38 am

LifelinerOne wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
If they select the A321neo for KLM, the gap with KLC's E2s is indeed quite substantial. Is this where the A220 comes along? The E2s are leased for ten years if I recall, so that might work to replace them then with new A220-100s.

Oh dear, the first E2's have arrived only this year, and the next ones will be delivered through 2025. And you are thinking KLM have already decided to replace them with A220s? :white:

As for the gap between the KLC aircraft and the A321, might I suggest a not too unsuccessful aircraft like the A320neo? :spin:


As the Reuters and Bloomberg reports are quite specific on the A321neo, I am of the impression the A320neo is not part of the order. Which leaves the gap with the E195-E2.


The 737-800 won’t disappear overnight and KLM has some young birds. And if (that remains the question as long it’s a rumor) the A321neo will become reality, it’s possible to add some A320. But it might as well be cheaper to misuse an A321 or trimming down frequencies. This might become reality, because AMS has some issues with complying to environmental laws.
Source (in Dutch): https://nos.nl/artikel/2408710-grote-zorgen-kabinet-over-schiphol-aantal-vluchten-mogelijk-fors-omlaag

There is a chance that the number of flights per year will have to be reduced. According to lawyers, without drastic measures a license can only be issued for a maximum of 400,000 flight movements per year, a decrease of 20 percent.
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3992
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Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:31 am

If KLM goes for the A21N only in its narrow-body order, is there the possibility of two different configurations or perhaps an XLR version and a regular (one aux tank) version)? The newer B738s could go to HV and the older owned models could then be put up for sale.
 
Opus99
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Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:36 am

The Reuters article mentions the thawing of French and Dutch relations in the company and Boeings 787 delivery problems as part of the pressure to move towards Airbus.
 
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notaxonrotax
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Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321n

Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:00 pm

marcelh wrote:

The 737-800 won’t disappear overnight and KLM has some young birds.


Wasn`t the very last (civil) non-MAX 737 delivered to KLM?

No Tax On Rotax
 
yyztpa2
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:30 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:04 pm

On the AF-KLM analyst call at the end of October, Ben Smith provides a response which includes insight into future fleet options. On this link,
https://seekingalpha.com/article/446375 ... transcript
go approximately 1/3rd down the page and look for reply to question from Steven Zaat. If doing a page search, reply begins with looking for "And Alex to continue on your other 2 questions. So on the fleet side, starting with KLM"
 
PDPsol
Posts: 1228
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2004 5:09 am

Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321neo

Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:14 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
If they select the A321neo for KLM, the gap with KLC's E2s is indeed quite substantial. Is this where the A220 comes along? The E2s are leased for ten years if I recall, so that might work to replace them then with new A220-100s.

Oh dear, the first E2's have arrived only this year, and the next ones will be delivered through 2025. And you are thinking KLM have already decided to replace them with A220s? :white:

As for the gap between the KLC aircraft and the A321, might I suggest a not too unsuccessful aircraft like the A320neo? :spin:


As the Reuters and Bloomberg reports are quite specific on the A321neo, I am of the impression the A320neo is not part of the order. Which leaves the gap with the E195-E2.

And I'm very much aware that they are just arriving. But, I'm also very aware that they are "only" leased for a period of ten years if I recall correctly. And that the new narrowbodies ordered are here to stay for a longer period and will start to arrive from 2023-4?. So, what will happen with KLC's fleet when the leases end of the E2 end by 2031? I'm not suggesting they're out of the door now...

Anyway, talk of the town is a split order; KLM going Airbus, Transavia sticking with Boeing. But AF-KLM is stressing no decision has been made but is imminent.

Cheers! :wave:


KLM is not ordering the A220, not today, not tomorrow. The E195-E2 has JUST arrived on property and will remain in the fleet for many, many, many years, not just a ‘ten-year’ lease term. KLM is absolutely thrilled with the E195-E2, and can easily fill any required 130-200 capacity requirements with the A320neo, no need for a new type like the A220.
 
Opus99
Posts: 2934
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:29 pm

yyztpa2 wrote:
On the AF-KLM analyst call at the end of October, Ben Smith provides a response which includes insight into future fleet options. On this link,
https://seekingalpha.com/article/446375 ... transcript
go approximately 1/3rd down the page and look for reply to question from Steven Zaat. If doing a page search, reply begins with looking for "And Alex to continue on your other 2 questions. So on the fleet side, starting with KLM"

Interesting that expanding the 787 fleet at Air France is an option
 
marcelh
Posts: 1626
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Leeham News: An exclusive Boeing operator is in talks for A220 and A321n

Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:35 pm

notaxonrotax wrote:
marcelh wrote:

The 737-800 won’t disappear overnight and KLM has some young birds.


Wasn`t the very last (civil) non-MAX 737 delivered to KLM?

No Tax On Rotax

Yes, PH-BCL delivered in December 2019
 
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AECM
Posts: 389
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:28 pm

Opus99 wrote:
yyztpa2 wrote:
On the AF-KLM analyst call at the end of October, Ben Smith provides a response which includes insight into future fleet options. On this link,
https://seekingalpha.com/article/446375 ... transcript
go approximately 1/3rd down the page and look for reply to question from Steven Zaat. If doing a page search, reply begins with looking for "And Alex to continue on your other 2 questions. So on the fleet side, starting with KLM"

Interesting that expanding the 787 fleet at Air France is an option


There are still 15 x A332 at Air France that would need a replacement and currently from a cabin layout the B789 is the closest in terms of seat count.
 
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AECM
Posts: 389
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:40 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
If KLM goes for the A21N only in its narrow-body order, is there the possibility of two different configurations or perhaps an XLR version and a regular (one aux tank) version)? The newer B738s could go to HV and the older owned models could then be put up for sale.


If KLM goes for A21N as a direct replacement for the B737 then I think one cabin layout would work (210 to 220 seats). If they plan to explore other routes then probably they will add a second layout (LR or XLR) with some C + Y (160 to 180).
 
krisyyz
Posts: 1330
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:04 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:41 pm

Which aircraft (7M8 vs 321N) has the better economics on the 600-1200nm routes that KL seems to operate most 737s on?

I often look at the AMS-BUD route, KL's current fleet gives them a lot of flexibility, they operate every NB they have on that route bases on demand. From cityhopper Ejets to 737s, 738s and sometimes the 739s. Going to just A321s would limit that greatly.

I was surprised to read through this thread as I though the MAX deal was a forgone conclusion. So many business and political aspects at play here, Boeing's massive problems, KL-AF relationship and thereby supporting a EU supplier, AF vs. KL fleet strategy and shareholder relations on massive capital acquisition.

If Airbus gets the deal, which I think they will but with a more diverse order than jus the A321s, I could see Smith just like he did at AC, keep the A333s around for longer than planned. Beyond the fleet commonality, having flown on KL's A333 and B789, I would chose the A333 any day, and I'm definitely a Boeing fan.

KrisYYZ
 
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frigatebird
Posts: 1904
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:23 pm

Opus99 wrote:
The Reuters article mentions the thawing of French and Dutch relations in the company and Boeings 787 delivery problems as part of the pressure to move towards Airbus.

Most definitely the 787 delivery / quality issues play a major role here. The 737MAX problems don't help, but were not decisive. However, it could swing KLM's decision towards Airbus, KL CEO warned if Boeing didn't get their act together KL could definitely change to Airbus narrowbodies. And this was before the current 787 delivery problems surfaced... It wasn't that much problem for KL earlier, thanks to COVID... But now they need 787-10s. KL had to extend leases on some of the A333s which were originally scheduled for return to the lessor early next year.

It was already whispered the past few weeks if there was ever a chance for Airbus, this time was their best chance. Apparently, the Airbus option will cost more initially due to conversion cost and a higher purchase price, but efficiency gains the following years would compensate for that.

Personally, as a regular KLM passenger, I would enjoy it if KLM decides for the A32x.
 
A388
Posts: 8100
Joined: Mon May 21, 2001 3:48 am

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:11 pm

I've read a few times that KL will go for the A321NEO but I think if they do go for the A32X, it will be a mix of A320NEO's and A321NEO(XLR)'s. Also, this narrow body aircraft order is for both KL and HV (NL and France), right? Can we than still get a split order between the NEO and MAX? I thought this is going to be either Airbus or Boeing for everybody(?)

In any case, I welcome any aircraft type KL will chose, Airbus or Boeing.

A388
 
Breathe
Posts: 911
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:38 pm

Snippet from a Reuters report about the Qantas Airbus order:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-12-15/

It caps a successful week for Airbus after Singapore Airlines on Wednesday agreed to launch the A350 freighter and the planemaker looks likely to seize a narrowbody order from KLM as early as Thursday, in what would be the second defection to Airbus in 24 hours.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3649
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender

Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:43 pm

Breathe wrote:
Snippet from a Reuters report about the Qantas Airbus order:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-12-15/

It caps a successful week for Airbus after Singapore Airlines on Wednesday agreed to launch the A350 freighter and the planemaker looks likely to seize a narrowbody order from KLM as early as Thursday, in what would be the second defection to Airbus in 24 hours.


KLM is feeling like a "must-win" for Boeing. I get that market share isn't the end all for a company - its profit, but its an important factor Boeing seems to have forgotten in pursuit of getting its finances in order. It feels like if they lose more important customers, they won't be able to come back from it. The A321neo is an excellent plane and if Boeing won't price its MAX to sell, its far too short-sighted. Its becoming increasingly more difficult to be a Boeing fan.
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