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Polot
Posts: 12102
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:36 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:

Australia has done well during COVID (much better than the U.S.), but they may not reopen to U.S. travel until 2023 or beyond which is fine. Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.

You’ll see DL return sooner not because of service levels but because unlike AA DL no longer has an Australian partner on the route to put passengers on.
 
DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:42 pm

I would have it suspended longer personally. I really can’t see it opening up with COVID raging right now.
 
UAL777UK
Posts: 2372
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:16 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:44 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
ADent wrote:
Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?


Yes, that is a bit ridiculous, isn’t it! Guessing sooner or later UA and DL will pull off of their SYD routes as well.


One assumes that UA and DL must be filling the belly on the current flights.....surely?
 
jetskipper
Posts: 569
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Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:47 pm

UA must be or else they wouldn’t be flying both LAX and SFO, they would have combined them into one flight.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8011
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:06 pm

freshwater wrote:
dcajet wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

The reality is Australia and NZ got off lightly overall and other less developed countries are more in need.


Well... not sure if I agree with that. Sounds more like an excuse than sound public health policy, So are they going to live in isolation and going from lockdown crisis to lockdown crisis for the next year every time new cases appear?

Airlines will eventually stop flying to Australia if this continues for much longer

"Despite all the effort they've put in, it gets to a point where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time," BARA executive director Barry Abrams said in a media statement.


Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.


What do the government do then?
 
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ClassicLover
Posts: 5261
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Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:37 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.


There is plenty of demand - as soon as Australia allows Australians to travel overseas, there will be an explosion of travel. I think you'll find things will ramp up faster than you anticipate. I also think you're wrong regarding Delta. Both airlines will do well. AA has the edge though, because 12 million Australians (out of a population of 25 million) are members of Qantas Frequent Flyer, which is oneworld, which favours American Airlines.
 
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hawaiian717
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Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:58 pm

superjeff wrote:
A has permanently ceased operating this route after their Administration (Bankruptcy), and has retired their 777-300 fleet. So they’re not coming back.


Virgin is interested in resuming long haul services in a couple of years, once borders reopen and there is sufficient demand. The 777s won’t be back, more likely 787-9.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4664
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:16 pm

hawaiian717 wrote:
superjeff wrote:
A has permanently ceased operating this route after their Administration (Bankruptcy), and has retired their 777-300 fleet. So they’re not coming back.


Virgin is interested in resuming long haul services in a couple of years, once borders reopen and there is sufficient demand. The 777s won’t be back, more likely 787-9.


If we reach a point where vaccinations hold, infection rates decline, and Australia and the rest of the world can truly and safely reopen, I can see a flood of demand for US-Australia services and a resumption of Virgin Australia long haul services.
 
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AirKevin
Posts: 816
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Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:59 pm

spinotter wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
ADent wrote:
Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?


Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4664
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:06 pm

AirKevin wrote:
spinotter wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?


Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.


That is something the Australian government has yet to solve for....Those Aussie nationals have been stuck abroad for over a year.
 
dcajet
Posts: 5036
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:41 pm

DCA350 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
a36001 wrote:
I know this may sound selfish and I am not being serious, but who else thinks 21 pax on a 14 hour long haul flight would be total paradise! I do! pity about the circumstances.


I flew a DFW-GRU segment in February where I was the only PE pax and there were 36 passengers total on a 789. It was weird.


I fly regularly to Brazil and Colombia, and at least in my experience there is a surprising difference in load factors.. most of my Colombia flights are packed, while I've experienced several almost empty Brazil flights.


Keep in mind travelers from Brazil are not currently allowed entry into the USA unless you are a US citizen/permanent resident or fall within some other exceptions. Brazilians, in normal times, make up for most of the travelers between the two countries. Flights to the US from neighboring Argentina are packed to the gills, have heard of one week or more waiting time if on stand by,
 
freshwater
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Joined: Mon May 04, 2020 10:24 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:57 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
freshwater wrote:
dcajet wrote:

Well... not sure if I agree with that. Sounds more like an excuse than sound public health policy, So are they going to live in isolation and going from lockdown crisis to lockdown crisis for the next year every time new cases appear?

Airlines will eventually stop flying to Australia if this continues for much longer



Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.


What do the government do then?


For starters, not completely botch the hotel quarantine operation who's success relies on the expense of life changing and often ruinous lockdowns when breaches occur. We shouldn't have needed this latest round of lockdowns if the virus hadn't breached our borders yet again, and we wouldn't need to be sticking to this utopian eradication goal if our population was vaccinated on par with other developed nations.

Responsibility for these two failures lands squarely on the Australian Federal Government.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1997
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:01 am

spinotter wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
ADent wrote:
Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?


Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.


It was reported that the NSW Government (Sydney being the State capital) did not support the incoming passenger cuts in national Cabinet, which were pushed by other states. Most incoming passengers come via SYD.

I suspect AA and others were hopeful of an earlier reopening and were picking up decent cargo loads to cover for the reduced pax numbers. Clearly that isn't enough at the moment. AA will come back when passengers can travel.

Support for vaccination is high here, but supply has been low. The transmissability of the Delta variant (as opposed to DL which occasionally has two A359 in SYD at the same time) is also having a significant impact, and challenging the majority supported position of overall elimination of Covid. For those from outside ANZ, the experience of eliminating Covid and returning life to normal apart from overseas travel every so often seems very difficult top comprehend (my family in Boston included).
 
Ken777
Posts: 10184
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:08 am

The Aussie policies were ether result of Covid killing a lot of people an the Just Gov had no desire to see major inroads hiring them.

The problem TODAY is that Delta (the virus, not airline) is coming on strong - more aggressive in both the spreading and killing. The current estimate of opening again does not include the horrors of Delta. I look for tighter controls into 2022 - well after their summer breaks.

Hate to think of the financial horrors QF is facing with these cuts, especially with the 380's not generating revenues.
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2555
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:48 am

Hey guys,
American will be back, in my opinion. I am not surprised that they (or any other) foreign airline temporarily ceases services to Australia. It's made mainstream media here but no real fuss. No backlash against them unlike when Emirates pulled out all-so-briefly last year with Tim Clark showboating before retreating in the face of some negative media.
Lots of foreign carries have temporarily pulled out of Australia which is completely understandable considering the closed borders and severely restricted passenger numbers also.
It's kind of ironic that the foreign flight crew who 'set off' the current Delta crisis in Australia by unintentionally spreading it to an unprotected, unvaccinated limo driver was one of the airlines benefitting most from closed Aussie borders, FedEx!
I look forward to American returning, probably sometime in 2022, once the Delta variant is under control.
As for Virgin Australia getting new widebodies to fly transpacific , that's a whole separate thread!
Take care,
Bunumuring
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8011
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:02 am

freshwater wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
freshwater wrote:

Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.


What do the government do then?


For starters, not completely botch the hotel quarantine operation who's success relies on the expense of life changing and often ruinous lockdowns when breaches occur. We shouldn't have needed this latest round of lockdowns if the virus hadn't breached our borders yet again, and we wouldn't need to be sticking to this utopian eradication goal if our population was vaccinated on par with other developed nations.

Responsibility for these two failures lands squarely on the Australian Federal Government.


Atleast they had a hotel quarantine operation, not ideal but what do you do? I’m in NZ and it does seem an over reaction when you get 1-2 cases which causes our alert level operation to increase, overall we have done well but there really isn’t a plan it seems in NZ or Australia, how do you be on par with other developed nations when we got off lightly overall and the pandemic is world wide with only so many vaccines and others need them a lot more urgently?

Is it all on the federal government really? Some of the states have been pretty petty at times in their approach. It’s fluid and a changing situation.
 
Pi7472000
Posts: 336
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:26 pm

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:33 am

ClassicLover wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.


There is plenty of demand - as soon as Australia allows Australians to travel overseas, there will be an explosion of travel. I think you'll find things will ramp up faster than you anticipate. I also think you're wrong regarding Delta. Both airlines will do well. AA has the edge though, because 12 million Australians (out of a population of 25 million) are members of Qantas Frequent Flyer, which is oneworld, which favours American Airlines.


I would disagree. American does not have the best reputation in Australia and Qantas has much better service than American. American can serve Australia through its OneWorld partner. Air fares will be high, which will lower demand, and there will not be a need for American to serve Australia. Delta, United, Qantas, and Virgin Australia will be sufficient. It may be 2023 or after before travel resumes between the countries with COVID not being under control in the U.S. It is not surprising to see American bow out of Australia first.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8011
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:59 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.


There is plenty of demand - as soon as Australia allows Australians to travel overseas, there will be an explosion of travel. I think you'll find things will ramp up faster than you anticipate. I also think you're wrong regarding Delta. Both airlines will do well. AA has the edge though, because 12 million Australians (out of a population of 25 million) are members of Qantas Frequent Flyer, which is oneworld, which favours American Airlines.


I would disagree. American does not have the best reputation in Australia and Qantas has much better service than American. American can serve Australia through its OneWorld partner. Air fares will be high, which will lower demand, and there will not be a need for American to serve Australia. Delta, United, Qantas, and Virgin Australia will be sufficient. It may be 2023 or after before travel resumes between the countries with COVID not being under control in the U.S. It is not surprising to see American bow out of Australia first.


It’s the same for everyone though, QF aren’t flying to the US other than a very small number of freight or repatriation flights ex MEL/BNE-LAX mainly. QF don’t currently have the fleet once things return to normal to fly everywhere either so AA will be back as part of the JBA. VA won’t be back anytime soon as they no longer have any long haul aircraft.
 
migair54
Posts: 2490
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:24 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:44 am

gwrudolph wrote:
AA averaging 21 passengers a day—wow! Do we think DL and UA are that low as well?


Most probably is because they have that pax allocation number by the Australian government, and I think now the number are being reduce on all airlines, so basically is a cargo flight and little repatriation also.

freshwater wrote:
For starters, not completely botch the hotel quarantine operation who's success relies on the expense of life changing and often ruinous lockdowns when breaches occur. We shouldn't have needed this latest round of lockdowns if the virus hadn't breached our borders yet again, and we wouldn't need to be sticking to this utopian eradication goal if our population was vaccinated on par with other developed nations.

Responsibility for these two failures lands squarely on the Australian Federal Government.


Initially the strategy worked well, but they can't keep the country isolated forever, and sooner or later the virus will arrive, vaccination is key and in that aspect Australians they were very relax because the virus was at a very little level.

AirKevin wrote:
So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.


Clearly the Aussie politicians are not very worry about that, otherwise after more than a year they could have allow all of them back, 34000 is less than a 100 pax a day, they could easily make them quarantine in hotels, that for a long time were basically empty, it's the citizens who pay for it anyway, airplane fare, hotel quarantine, etc....
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26649
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:03 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.


There is plenty of demand - as soon as Australia allows Australians to travel overseas, there will be an explosion of travel. I think you'll find things will ramp up faster than you anticipate. I also think you're wrong regarding Delta. Both airlines will do well. AA has the edge though, because 12 million Australians (out of a population of 25 million) are members of Qantas Frequent Flyer, which is oneworld, which favours American Airlines.


I would disagree. American does not have the best reputation in Australia and Qantas has much better service than American. American can serve Australia through its OneWorld partner. Air fares will be high, which will lower demand, and there will not be a need for American to serve Australia. Delta, United, Qantas, and Virgin Australia will be sufficient. It may be 2023 or after before travel resumes between the countries with COVID not being under control in the U.S. It is not surprising to see American bow out of Australia first.


American has not bowed out of Australia. It is suspending service for two months due to Australian government mandated passenger caps. Others will follow, it’s not economical right now. Qantas has not flown to LA for more than a year. Virgin Australia does not have any long haul aircraft and can no longer fly to LA.
 
freshwater
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon May 04, 2020 10:24 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:21 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
freshwater wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

What do the government do then?


For starters, not completely botch the hotel quarantine operation who's success relies on the expense of life changing and often ruinous lockdowns when breaches occur. We shouldn't have needed this latest round of lockdowns if the virus hadn't breached our borders yet again, and we wouldn't need to be sticking to this utopian eradication goal if our population was vaccinated on par with other developed nations.

Responsibility for these two failures lands squarely on the Australian Federal Government.


Atleast they had a hotel quarantine operation, not ideal but what do you do? I’m in NZ and it does seem an over reaction when you get 1-2 cases which causes our alert level operation to increase, overall we have done well but there really isn’t a plan it seems in NZ or Australia, how do you be on par with other developed nations when we got off lightly overall and the pandemic is world wide with only so many vaccines and others need them a lot more urgently?

Is it all on the federal government really? Some of the states have been pretty petty at times in their approach. It’s fluid and a changing situation.


The Federal government could have moved the quarantine operation away from the major capital cities after the first few breaches of the system resulted in economically devastating lockdowns, as requested by numerous state governments. We had the money, the space and the time to do much, much better. And the vaccine rollout is criminal in its incompetence.
 
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spinotter
Posts: 888
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:49 pm

AirKevin wrote:
spinotter wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?


Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.


Australia is trying for zero infections at the moment, if I understand the rationale for the many lockdowns in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and Perth. Political leaders must decide whether to let those 34,000 back in quickly, slowly, or not at all until vaccination levels are adequate.
 
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AirKevin
Posts: 816
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:18 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:16 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
spinotter wrote:
Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.
So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.
That is something the Australian government has yet to solve for....Those Aussie nationals have been stuck abroad for over a year.

migair54 wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.
Clearly the Aussie politicians are not very worry about that, otherwise after more than a year they could have allow all of them back, 34000 is less than a 100 pax a day, they could easily make them quarantine in hotels, that for a long time were basically empty, it's the citizens who pay for it anyway, airplane fare, hotel quarantine, etc....

Yikes. How do they even manage to afford that. Hotel costs can't be cheap, and I wonder if they would even still have jobs at that point.
spinotter wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
spinotter wrote:
Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.
So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.
Australia is trying for zero infections at the moment, if I understand the rationale for the many lockdowns in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and Perth. Political leaders must decide whether to let those 34,000 back in quickly, slowly, or not at all until vaccination levels are adequate.

Hopefully they figure something out. I can't imagine being stuck away from home for over a year.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1997
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:55 pm

Australia has reached elimination several times during the last 18 months without vaccinations, through strictly controlled borders and quarantine. As far as can be made out, the latest outbreak started via transmission from a FedEx crew to an unvaccinated limo driver.

The nation overwhelmingly supports a pathway to elimination, but equally knows little else. Until vaccination is available to all (and that increasingly includes teens and even younger) I don't see free movement into and out of Australia as likely.

AA won't return until passenger caps are either greatly increased or removed altogether. If QF isn't flying its money spinner routes, it's hard to see why AA would bother.
 
undertheradar
Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 1:02 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:27 pm

Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.[/quote]

At the moment it is difficult to keep politics out of an aviation forum but that just about sums things up in OZ. I totally agree. Our Fed Govt buggered up the vaccine rollout and they have only now 'admitted', in a round about way Aust is about 3months behind where we should be. And the complete mess up of our 'hotel quarantine' by Fed & State Govts is whole other beast. I could go on but I found myself typing a very lengthy post. We are constantly bombarded with our Govts blaming eachother and no one taking responsibilty.
Sorry if that turned into a rant..just had to get it off my chest as I sit at home unable to travel further than 5kms from my home as my Govt says I am not 'special' enough to travel any further.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1997
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: American suspends Sydney

Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:13 am

undertheradar wrote:
Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.

At the moment it is difficult to keep politics out of an aviation forum but that just about sums things up in OZ. I totally agree. Our Fed Govt buggered up the vaccine rollout and they have only now 'admitted', in a round about way Aust is about 3months behind where we should be. And the complete mess up of our 'hotel quarantine' by Fed & State Govts is whole other beast. I could go on but I found myself typing a very lengthy post. We are constantly bombarded with our Govts blaming eachother and no one taking responsibilty.
Sorry if that turned into a rant..just had to get it off my chest as I sit at home unable to travel further than 5kms from my home as my Govt says I am not 'special' enough to travel any further.


SYD is within my 10km exercise zone, so I'm fine. I was loving regular GE90 startups, including AA. I'm getting a bit bored with 787s, although I'll miss the AA livery.

As for HQ, I'd actaully argue that it's been more resilient than it probably had a right to be, making the occasional leaks even more frustrating.

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