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Niloko
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What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:35 am

I tried searching elsewhere about it but can't find anything. Does this silence indicate that no work is being done about it?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:14 pm

Of course not. It means the NTSB isn't done investigating. When they are there will be a flurry of reports and commentary again.
 
Niloko
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:59 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Of course not. It means the NTSB isn't done investigating. When they are there will be a flurry of reports and commentary again.

Wow doesn't even look like it's worth it for airlines to keep 777-200/ER and 300 with PW anymore if it's taking this long. Investigation will probably take 6 months/1 year more, the fix which may or may not work 2 years more and if it ends up like Trent 1000 having problems even in the "fixed" version, it'll repeat this same cycle.
 
TW870
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Sat Jul 24, 2021 2:51 pm

Niloko wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Of course not. It means the NTSB isn't done investigating. When they are there will be a flurry of reports and commentary again.

Wow doesn't even look like it's worth it for airlines to keep 777-200/ER and 300 with PW anymore if it's taking this long. Investigation will probably take 6 months/1 year more, the fix which may or may not work 2 years more and if it ends up like Trent 1000 having problems even in the "fixed" version, it'll repeat this same cycle.


If you had to have a widebody fleet grounded, this would be the best time to have a grounding since widebody aircraft debuted in revenue service in 1970. While Europe leisure travel is starting to pick up, the giant Asia market is absolutely terrible. We aren't going to see long haul business travel recover until the world-wide vaccination levels are much higher than they are. For now, they don't need long haul capacity. They can park these birds until the PW4000 fix comes out, and then reactivate them if there is a significant increase in international demand. I agree with you that they may opt to retire these fleets. But I think that decision will come as a result of lagging pandemic demand and not because of the technical complexity of the fix.
 
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Aesma
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm

I'm sure PW is investigating and has an idea of the issue ?
 
ILikeTrains
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:20 pm

All of them are coming back, per the United Fleet thread. Likely between summer 2022-23.
 
Western727
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:24 pm

Wondering about the status of PW4000 service resumption on the 777, I found this: https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 37.article

Fair use: Boeing has asked US regulators to approve incremental modifications to the 777 intended to address the risk of Pratt & Whitney turbofan blade-out failures, rather than requiring simultaneous certification of all changes.

I don't have a subscription to FlightGlobal so I'm only able to cite the above paragraph. Any additional insight?
 
acavpics
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:37 pm

I'm really doubting that these will return to service.
UA for example has the oldest 777's out there (launch customer in 1995). I highly doubt that it is worth it to bring them back into service considering that there are so many newer replacements, like the 787, that are coming in.
 
Western727
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:43 pm

acavpics wrote:
I'm really doubting that these will return to service.
UA for example has the oldest 777's out there (launch customer in 1995). I highly doubt that it is worth it to bring them back into service considering that there are so many newer replacements, like the 787, that are coming in.


I'd be inclined to agree, except that UA has been keeping its Pratt-powered 200s and 200ERs current by flying them from storage in VCV to XMN over the last few months for heavy maintenance. Clearly that's an expensive endeavor so it seems like UA thinks they'll be back in the air at some point.
 
bbj2captain
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 2:34 pm

United fully intends for these aircraft to return to service. Currently, UAL is modifying the inlet cowl as a "work ahead" of regulators. UAL is communicating with regulators on these design changes to ensure they comply with final modification requirements from FAA. Timeline is unclear, but estimates range in late 2021 to spring of 2022 for return to service of the aircraft.
 
Western727
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 2:47 pm

bbj2captain wrote:
United fully intends for these aircraft to return to service. Currently, UAL is modifying the inlet cowl as a "work ahead" of regulators. UAL is communicating with regulators on these design changes to ensure they comply with final modification requirements from FAA. Timeline is unclear, but estimates range in late 2021 to spring of 2022 for return to service of the aircraft.


Thanks for this. I'm intrigued by your mentions of UAL as the "lead" of these changes. What of KAL or ANA? In that vein, shouldn't it be Boeing and PW modifying the inlet cowl and communicating with regulators instead of UA?
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 2:47 pm

acavpics wrote:
I'm really doubting that these will return to service.
UA for example has the oldest 777's out there (launch customer in 1995). I highly doubt that it is worth it to bring them back into service considering that there are so many newer replacements, like the 787, that are coming in.


What replacements does United have for 52 777’s? United doesn’t have a choice they have to bring them back……and will
 
FlyHossD
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 2:56 pm

Western727 wrote:
acavpics wrote:
I'm really doubting that these will return to service.
UA for example has the oldest 777's out there (launch customer in 1995). I highly doubt that it is worth it to bring them back into service considering that there are so many newer replacements, like the 787, that are coming in.


I'd be inclined to agree, except that UA has been keeping its Pratt-powered 200s and 200ERs current by flying them from storage in VCV to XMN over the last few months for heavy maintenance. Clearly that's an expensive endeavor so it seems like UA thinks they'll be back in the air at some point.


And UA is painting the P&W powered 777s, too. Clearly, UAL wouldn't be going to this expense if they weren't going to fly the airplanes again. Given the number of flights United had going to Hawaii this past summer, I'm sure they're eager to get more seats per flight for next summer. IIRC, the much-lamented (on this site) high density P&W 777s have 366 seats apiece.
 
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Revelation
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 3:10 pm

Western727 wrote:
In that vein, shouldn't it be Boeing and PW modifying the inlet cowl and communicating with regulators instead of UA?

How do we know it's not a joint effort?

I was able to load the FG article above without logging in to their site.

One interesting point:

The jets remain out of service, though the FAA has not grounded them.

Another interesting point: asking for exemptions seems to be a tacit admission they are not in compliance.

It's even more interesting that they are asking for exemptions for the CFM56 which is on the 737NGs, probably the most numerous engine in airline service today, and for a condition that is already related to one fatality.

What could possibly go wrong?
 
Spetsnaz55
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 3:15 pm

Article is a few months old but lot of questions answered in it

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-nea ... 1620854748
 
Western727
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
Western727 wrote:
In that vein, shouldn't it be Boeing and PW modifying the inlet cowl and communicating with regulators instead of UA?

How do we know it's not a joint effort?

I was able to load the FG article above without logging in to their site.

One interesting point:

The jets remain out of service, though the FAA has not grounded them.

Another interesting point: asking for exemptions seems to be a tacit admission they are not in compliance.

It's even more interesting that they are asking for exemptions for the CFM56 which is on the 737NGs, probably the most numerous engine in airline service today, and for a condition that is already related to one fatality.

What could possibly go wrong?


Re: not a joint effort, I was responding to bbj2captain's implication that it was UAL that was doing the work.

Thanks for the FG article tip, which helped: incognito window. :-)

Ugh on the CFMs...in any case, I'm surprised the PW4000 blade separation is coming up now, over 25 years after the 777 first entered service. I remember watching 21st Centry Jet... which includes footage of a fan blade separation test on a PW4000. The cowling was able to contain the debris. Why, then, did we just have the two HNL-bound uncontained incidents? What changed?
 
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PITingres
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:30 pm

Western727 wrote:
... I'm surprised the PW4000 blade separation is coming up now, over 25 years after the 777 first entered service. I remember watching 21st Centry Jet... which includes footage of a fan blade separation test on a PW4000. The cowling was able to contain the debris. Why, then, did we just have the two HNL-bound uncontained incidents? What changed?


This is just a wild guess on my part, but one thing that's different is that the in-flight incidents have a high speed incident airstream hitting the cowl. The static blade separation test doesn't.
 
Pinto
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:31 pm

acavpics wrote:
I'm really doubting that these will return to service.
UA for example has the oldest 777's out there (launch customer in 1995). I highly doubt that it is worth it to bring them back into service considering that there are so many newer replacements, like the 787, that are coming in.


You need to think off this from an airline point of view.

1) UA has most if not all of these aircraft paid off
2) UA has no replacement out there that can be delivered in time
3) UA also has recently refitted them with new seats and some have new paint.

It makes no senses for UA too retire these aircraft. They need the lift for if an when Asia opens up. If you look at how aircraft are spread UA doesn't have that much slack on their schedule. Most of the slack comes from the fact UA isn't operating most of their Pacific routes and have had some 787 deliveries.

I will never understand a.nets belief that just because a plane is new it is automatically better.
 
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Revelation
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:04 pm

Pinto wrote:
You need to think off this from an airline point of view.

1) UA has most if not all of these aircraft paid off
2) UA has no replacement out there that can be delivered in time
3) UA also has recently refitted them with new seats and some have new paint.

It makes no senses for UA too retire these aircraft. They need the lift for if an when Asia opens up. If you look at how aircraft are spread UA doesn't have that much slack on their schedule. Most of the slack comes from the fact UA isn't operating most of their Pacific routes and have had some 787 deliveries.

I will never understand a.nets belief that just because a plane is new it is automatically better.

Great points.

Also, most of us don't buy new cars just because there are newer ones at the dealership that presumably get better mileage. We figure out the cost/benefit ratio and if it makes sense we keep the old car running because not having a car payment is a good thing.
 
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STT757
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
Pinto wrote:
You need to think off this from an airline point of view.

1) UA has most if not all of these aircraft paid off
2) UA has no replacement out there that can be delivered in time
3) UA also has recently refitted them with new seats and some have new paint.

It makes no senses for UA too retire these aircraft. They need the lift for if an when Asia opens up. If you look at how aircraft are spread UA doesn't have that much slack on their schedule. Most of the slack comes from the fact UA isn't operating most of their Pacific routes and have had some 787 deliveries.

I will never understand a.nets belief that just because a plane is new it is automatically better.

Great points.

Also, most of us don't buy new cars just because there are newer ones at the dealership that presumably get better mileage. We figure out the cost/benefit ratio and if it makes sense we keep the old car running because not having a car payment is a good thing.


I was reading the other day that the average age of a car on the roads in the US is higher now than it has been in decades. A couple reasons, first cars are lasting much longer and still getting decent gas mileage and second the cost of new cars today.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:40 pm

Pinto wrote:
You need to think off this from an airline point of view.

1) UA has most if not all of these aircraft paid off
2) UA has no replacement out there that can be delivered in time
3) UA also has recently refitted them with new seats and some have new paint.

It makes no senses for UA too retire these aircraft.


Those points didn't stop AA from retiring 332s, 333s, and 767s. They didn't stop DL from retiring just-refurbed 777s (or 767s).

Your frame of mind is fixated on the idea that UA needs the long-haul capacity. Just how quickly do you think full intercon demand (and fares!) is coming back? Don't you think the fifty-three A350s and 787s on order as of 6/30/21 addresses widebody capacity?

STT757 wrote:
I was reading the other day that the average age of a car on the roads in the US is higher now than it has been in decades. A couple reasons, first cars are lasting much longer and still getting decent gas mileage and second the cost of new cars today.


Mean age of cars on the road has been growing pretty much continously for the last 32 years (yeah, I was looking at it that long ago). It was about 7 years in ~1989, rising to about 12 today. The bad sales analyst argument was always 'People need to buy new cars. Car age is at an all-time high.'
 
sagechan
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:54 pm

Pinto wrote:
acavpics wrote:
I'm really doubting that these will return to service.
UA for example has the oldest 777's out there (launch customer in 1995). I highly doubt that it is worth it to bring them back into service considering that there are so many newer replacements, like the 787, that are coming in.


You need to think off this from an airline point of view.

1) UA has most if not all of these aircraft paid off
2) UA has no replacement out there that can be delivered in time
3) UA also has recently refitted them with new seats and some have new paint.

It makes no senses for UA too retire these aircraft. They need the lift for if an when Asia opens up. If you look at how aircraft are spread UA doesn't have that much slack on their schedule. Most of the slack comes from the fact UA isn't operating most of their Pacific routes and have had some 787 deliveries.

I will never understand a.nets belief that just because a plane is new it is automatically better.


2&3 are sunk costs and therefore irrelevant to new decision making. Though unless something else comes up I would expect UA to return these for all the good reasons mentioned around this thread.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:38 pm

bbj2captain wrote:
Currently, UAL is modifying the inlet cowl as a "work ahead" of regulators.


Why would a modification to the inlet cowl prevent an uncontained failure? Or are we talking about the fan case?
 
AndoAv8R
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:32 pm

I don't see why United wouldn't want these aircraft back; I assume that Pratt and Whitney / Boeing are the ones covering the costs to do the repairs plus I doubt either really want to lose United as a long-term customer
 
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Revelation
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:50 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Your frame of mind is fixated on the idea that UA needs the long-haul capacity. Just how quickly do you think full intercon demand (and fares!) is coming back?

The plane that had a blade-out was operating during covid so we can see it had a role in the UA fleet. The WSJ article linked above says these are in high density config and used a lot for domestic routes including Hawaii, and that UA really wants them back by next summer. I think it's safe to say UA does see the demand for these particular planes.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Don't you think the fifty-three A350s and 787s on order as of 6/30/21 addresses widebody capacity?

Dangerous to bring up the infamous UA A350 order so I will slowly step away for now...
 
codc10
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:59 pm

The PW 777s are cheap, flexible capacity that UA can use to match demand, especially in the domestic hub-hub sector, or strong cargo markets. United network people are already on the record that the WB fleet is strained for Summer 2022, and so there is little doubt they can be put to use when the FAA clears them to return. United is planning for a quick service reentry by keeping the fleet current with maintenance, paint, etc., not to mention the crews to support them.

As for the 350s, yes, they are technically on order, but there are no current plans (at all) to take them. For the time being, that can has been kicked as far down the road as is reasonably predictable.

The AA/DL fleet planning decisions are a bit distinguishable. At AA, the A330s were a single pilot group, but an oddball fleet with two engine types spread among a smallish number of frames that was due to shrink in the next few years anyway. The 757/767 fleet was due to be retired in the next few years, as well, with 787s to replace.

At DL, the 777 fleet was similar to AA's 330s. Small number of frames, two engine types, and a lot of complexity without the critical mass to spread costs. At United, we are talking about 52 frames, which comprises more than half its overall 777 fleet
 
Pinto
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Pinto wrote:
You need to think off this from an airline point of view.

1) UA has most if not all of these aircraft paid off
2) UA has no replacement out there that can be delivered in time
3) UA also has recently refitted them with new seats and some have new paint.

It makes no senses for UA too retire these aircraft.


Those points didn't stop AA from retiring 332s, 333s, and 767s. They didn't stop DL from retiring just-refurbed 777s (or 767s).

Your frame of mind is fixated on the idea that UA needs the long-haul capacity. Just how quickly do you think full intercon demand (and fares!) is coming back? Don't you think the fifty-three A350s and 787s on order as of 6/30/21 addresses widebody capacity?

STT757 wrote:
I was reading the other day that the average age of a car on the roads in the US is higher now than it has been in decades. A couple reasons, first cars are lasting much longer and still getting decent gas mileage and second the cost of new cars today.


Mean age of cars on the road has been growing pretty much continously for the last 32 years (yeah, I was looking at it that long ago). It was about 7 years in ~1989, rising to about 12 today. The bad sales analyst argument was always 'People need to buy new cars. Car age is at an all-time high.'


UA does need Long Haul capacity. While yes Covid changed things, we can look at historical data for an idea. UA has been the larger of the US3 in terms on Long Haul and Ultra Long Haul flying and they probably are going to remain that way simply because of their fleet structure and all the new routes.

If UA wasn't needing the capacity they wouldn't have brought back the 764s, which most people (even myself) wrote off as fleet exits.

The A350s are probably not going to see the light of day at UA. If I remeber correctly UA was approached by Airbus when the 777s were grounded and offered better delivery slots. I imagine if UA wanted the dump them they would have done it then. While I don't have any direct insight I imagine that Airbus offered some good delivery slots as once UA got the first A350s the rest of the order would probably be all but garunteed.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:36 am

Western727 wrote:
I remember watching 21st Centry Jet... which includes footage of a fan blade separation test on a PW4000. The cowling was able to contain the debris. Why, then, did we just have the two HNL-bound uncontained incidents? What changed?


A material change was the difference. The NTSB report on the 2018 incident noted the test aircraft fan case used an aluminum aft bulkhead, but the production bulkhead was switched to a composite polymer design. Testing revealed the latter material is less capable than the aluminum one. As Boeing is responsible for the fan case, call was theirs.

https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/pri ... 40.article
 
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Aaron747
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:38 am

Western727 wrote:
bbj2captain wrote:
United fully intends for these aircraft to return to service. Currently, UAL is modifying the inlet cowl as a "work ahead" of regulators. UAL is communicating with regulators on these design changes to ensure they comply with final modification requirements from FAA. Timeline is unclear, but estimates range in late 2021 to spring of 2022 for return to service of the aircraft.


Thanks for this. I'm intrigued by your mentions of UAL as the "lead" of these changes. What of KAL or ANA? In that vein, shouldn't it be Boeing and PW modifying the inlet cowl and communicating with regulators instead of UA?


This is not unexpected. UA has the most experience with the P&W powered 777 overall and their maintenance program can probably claim to know the aircraft as well as Boeing at this point.
 
LDRA
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Re: What are the latest updates regarding PW4000-112 and when is it estimated to return to service?

Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:56 am

AndoAv8R wrote:
I don't see why United wouldn't want these aircraft back; I assume that Pratt and Whitney / Boeing are the ones covering the costs to do the repairs plus I doubt either really want to lose United as a long-term customer

Real reason here

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