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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:17 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
2175301 wrote:

I'm sure that the SkyCourier will do fine in normal or even bad winter weather. However, things get extreme in the arctic and the carriers who operate there prefer well proven aircraft to handle those extremes. It's not worth the gamble to use an unproven aircraft in such an environment. There have been multiple cases of where things were really bad at the North or South Pole regions that the Twin Otter was to airplane of choice for the mission because everyone knows it can get in and out - even if its parked outside in the arctic weather.


Honestly, lots of that was a function of the Kenn Borek crews, vice the airframe. They use the Twotter for all sorts of reasons, but those guys are the secret sauce, versus the airframe, and I say that as an unabashed DHC fanboi.

Another fanboi here. I was pulled off a glacier by an Otter Twin on skis. It was a completely uneventful day for the aircraft, but given the circumstances that lead to my being on the glacier, one of the most eventful days I've had. Watching her land was a thing of beauty. A magnificent aircraft with the capability to get me home. I love the Otter Twin for that.

That's much more capacity than FedEx will ever need. They need a van, not a UTV. I expect the SkyCourier to have an amazing run on it's own merits, with maintenance costs that allow it to print money for those who can afford the price of admission. As you say, the airframe may or may not be the reason for the Otter's arctic success, but the lack of arctic ability will undoubtedly be the reason for the SkyCourier's sucess.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:26 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
You’re ducking my question. Smaller operators, like Great Lakes, don’t having the buying power of FDX, but at $4 million, the lease payments would be around $40,000 per month. Name some potential city-pairs served by 9-seaters that would open to 19-seaters? In the US, which is the one big market that drives others.


Appropos, has there ever been an aircraft converted to passenger service after being built as a cargo aircraft? I agree with you as far as newbuilds go, but in 20 years there may be few options for fleet replacements.
 
Noshow
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:29 pm

The C-47 comes to my mind.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:41 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
william wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Name some profitable markets that the revenue can support a $6 million plane and maybe $300,000 in minimal annual flight crew costs.


First, no one is paying full price on an aircraft, especially big order and 2nd, I am sure operators of 9 pax aircraft would not mind more capability from their aircraft. For all we know such a certification may start a new market niche.


You’re ducking my question. Smaller operators, like Great Lakes, don’t having the buying power of FDX, but at $4 million, the lease payments would be around $40,000 per month. Name some potential city-pairs served by 9-seaters that would open to 19-seaters? In the US, which is the one big market that drives others.


I don't have an answer your question. Do not know what EAS market could benefit from a single pilot carrying 19 pax instead of 9 pax, but I bet there are some. We do not know what Regionals would take advantage of such a step change in certification.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:48 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
I think it does a disservice to this aircraft and the discipline they showed in design to try and put it into all missions. [.....] It will do its mission without mission creep or design bloat. It appears to be a masterpiece of restraint.

Amen to that. :yes: An amusing coincidence having the Boeing name on the pavement. :cheerful:

Image
https://s30121.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploa ... 8x1536.jpg


NameOmitted wrote:
Let it be so without asking it to be more.

Nevertheless, there will certainly be those who would try...and dare I say the SkyCourier won't disappoint even with the most basic modification for the pax variant. But as the linked report above stated, the asking price has gone up to $6.8M for the freighter and $7.3M for the commuter version -- quite steep for niche operators. For other specialized roles, Cessna as the integrator could likely command more - and that will be the icing on the cake for they have the key technologies in-house at Textron.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:52 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

You’re ducking my question. Smaller operators, like Great Lakes, don’t having the buying power of FDX, but at $4 million, the lease payments would be around $40,000 per month. Name some potential city-pairs served by 9-seaters that would open to 19-seaters? In the US, which is the one big market that drives others.


Great Lakes, at the end, basically had free airplanes and nearly free crews and couldn't make a go of it. Lots of that was, according to the people there, a function of a management team that was solidly stuck in 1987. The idea that halfing the crew requirements was the solution just wasn't real. Functionally, at the end, they couldn't keep Captains, because of their management practices.

Oddly enough, what it takes for EAS type cities to work economically is reliability. People won't travel on airlines, especially those going to out of the way places once or twice a day, when their chances of not going, getting stranded on the way, or not getting back on time for a connection is intolerably high.

In the old days of business and international travel, there were plenty of small towns that had lots of connecting high yield traffic, like Thief River Falls, MN (Steiger Tractor, Digi-Key, Arctic Cat) or Dodge City, KS (global buyers to large feedlots) or a Cortez, CO (international tourists.) These places still exist, and personally I think still justify EAS subsidies.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:31 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

You’re ducking my question. Smaller operators, like Great Lakes, don’t having the buying power of FDX, but at $4 million, the lease payments would be around $40,000 per month. Name some potential city-pairs served by 9-seaters that would open to 19-seaters? In the US, which is the one big market that drives others.


Great Lakes, at the end, basically had free airplanes and nearly free crews and couldn't make a go of it. Lots of that was, according to the people there, a function of a management team that was solidly stuck in 1987. The idea that halfing the crew requirements was the solution just wasn't real. Functionally, at the end, they couldn't keep Captains, because of their management practices.

Oddly enough, what it takes for EAS type cities to work economically is reliability. People won't travel on airlines, especially those going to out of the way places once or twice a day, when their chances of not going, getting stranded on the way, or not getting back on time for a connection is intolerably high.

In the old days of business and international travel, there were plenty of small towns that had lots of connecting high yield traffic, like Thief River Falls, MN (Steiger Tractor, Digi-Key, Arctic Cat) or Dodge City, KS (global buyers to large feedlots) or a Cortez, CO (international tourists.) These places still exist, and personally I think still justify EAS subsidies.


I think Textron's plan for the SkyCourier is to only be FAA-certified for 9 passengers for the time being. The price of the SkyCourier is over $7M in a passenger configuration, which would be very expensive for EAS operators to justify purchasing. For EAS use, the SkyCourier would have to compete with the Pilatus PC-12NGX, which is pressurized, cruises 85 kts. faster than the SkyCourier and costs roughly $2M less.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 5:09 am

$6-7 Million is a bit steep. That's 50% more than a Basler BT-67 with zero hours on it costs.
Twin Otter DHC-6-400 with glass cockpit is also cheaper. With way better runway performance and options like tundra tires, floats, amphibious, skis. You name it.

This plane is clearly designed around the FedEx boxes and that's the only thing they planned for. Which is fair enough. But I don't think we'll see many outside of FedEx.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:32 am

Devilfish wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
I think it does a disservice to this aircraft and the discipline they showed in design to try and put it into all missions. [.....] It will do its mission without mission creep or design bloat. It appears to be a masterpiece of restraint.

Amen to that. :yes: An amusing coincidence having the Boeing name on the pavement. :cheerful:

Image
https://s30121.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploa ... 8x1536.jpg


NameOmitted wrote:
Let it be so without asking it to be more.

Nevertheless, there will certainly be those who would try...and dare I say the SkyCourier won't disappoint even with the most basic modification for the pax variant. But as the linked report above stated, the asking price has gone up to $6.8M for the freighter and $7.3M for the commuter version -- quite steep for niche operators. For other specialized roles, Cessna as the integrator could likely command more - and that will be the icing on the cake for they have the key technologies in-house at Textron.

The presentation was on Boeing Plaza at Air Venture.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:44 am

JetBuddy wrote:
$6-7 Million is a bit steep. That's 50% more than a Basler BT-67 with zero hours on it costs.
Twin Otter DHC-6-400 with glass cockpit is also cheaper. With way better runway performance and options like tundra tires, floats, amphibious, skis. You name it.

This plane is clearly designed around the FedEx boxes and that's the only thing they planned for. Which is fair enough. But I don't think we'll see many outside of FedEx.

Due to the regulatory requirements, certifying as anything other than a 9 pax configuration in the US is insanely expensive. It may happen in time, but the targeted pax markets are not in the United States. A dual use or Combi configuration, most importantly the quick change option, has huge potential less regulated ioverseas, especially when financed by the US EXIM Bank as part of foreign policy.

A ton of potential military/ Government uses for this as, there are still many B1900 and DO-228 platforms flying around the world that need a cheap and simple replacement, from Exec/Command Comms aircraft, to surveillance, to early warning platforms.

Also, this beats the Otter or a Basler conversion for one very clear reason, that cannot be dismissed:
Worldwide already-existing Textron Support.
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:43 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
The presentation was on Boeing Plaza at Air Venture.

I had read that...was just highlighting it. :smile:
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:51 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
2175301 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:

The other thing to wonder is: this seems like something that would also compete against the Twin Otter in a passenger version. I have to wonder who could actually consider this over a Dash 6, either a new plane or a zero-timed version.


Yes, I agree that a passenger version of this will take away some of the Twin Otter passenger sales. Not all though. I believe that the Twin Otter will still have the float plane and arctic weather market.

As the rep explained it, the pax version will be certified to 19 anywhere but the US, where it will be initially certified as a nine-seater. If there is demand, they can go through the insanely expensive and burdensome process of certifying as 19 in the US later.



A 9 seater with a bit of upgraded seating due to the extra room could be very nice.

Didn't they hint they could pressurize it one day when first announced?
 
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 2:19 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
$6-7 Million is a bit steep. That's 50% more than a Basler BT-67 with zero hours on it costs.
Twin Otter DHC-6-400 with glass cockpit is also cheaper. With way better runway performance and options like tundra tires, floats, amphibious, skis. You name it.

This plane is clearly designed around the FedEx boxes and that's the only thing they planned for. Which is fair enough. But I don't think we'll see many outside of FedEx.


But BT-67 conversions are a tiny trickle anymore. If FX were to possibly want an order similar in scale to this 50-unit one, could it possibly even be filled by the Basler line?
 
solracfunk14
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 2:44 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

You’re ducking my question. Smaller operators, like Great Lakes, don’t having the buying power of FDX, but at $4 million, the lease payments would be around $40,000 per month. Name some potential city-pairs served by 9-seaters that would open to 19-seaters? In the US, which is the one big market that drives others.


Great Lakes, at the end, basically had free airplanes and nearly free crews and couldn't make a go of it. Lots of that was, according to the people there, a function of a management team that was solidly stuck in 1987. The idea that halfing the crew requirements was the solution just wasn't real. Functionally, at the end, they couldn't keep Captains, because of their management practices.

Oddly enough, what it takes for EAS type cities to work economically is reliability. People won't travel on airlines, especially those going to out of the way places once or twice a day, when their chances of not going, getting stranded on the way, or not getting back on time for a connection is intolerably high.

In the old days of business and international travel, there were plenty of small towns that had lots of connecting high yield traffic, like Thief River Falls, MN (Steiger Tractor, Digi-Key, Arctic Cat) or Dodge City, KS (global buyers to large feedlots) or a Cortez, CO (international tourists.) These places still exist, and personally I think still justify EAS subsidies.


I think Textron's plan for the SkyCourier is to only be FAA-certified for 9 passengers for the time being. The price of the SkyCourier is over $7M in a passenger configuration, which would be very expensive for EAS operators to justify purchasing. For EAS use, the SkyCourier would have to compete with the Pilatus PC-12NGX, which is pressurized, cruises 85 kts. faster than the SkyCourier and costs roughly $2M less.


At their website says 19pax, getting 9pax would be the same as the Caravan so as overlap it. https://cessna.txtav.com/en/turboprop/skycourier
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 5:04 pm

Spacepope wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
$6-7 Million is a bit steep. That's 50% more than a Basler BT-67 with zero hours on it costs.
Twin Otter DHC-6-400 with glass cockpit is also cheaper. With way better runway performance and options like tundra tires, floats, amphibious, skis. You name it.

This plane is clearly designed around the FedEx boxes and that's the only thing they planned for. Which is fair enough. But I don't think we'll see many outside of FedEx.


But BT-67 conversions are a tiny trickle anymore. If FX were to possibly want an order similar in scale to this 50-unit one, could it possibly even be filled by the Basler line?


No, and I don't think Fedex is interested in a sloping cargo floor either.

But my point was the potential outside of Fedex or other commercial freighter companies is limited. It's designed around one specific set of functions and it does that very well.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:37 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
alberchico wrote:
william wrote:
If the FAA would approve single pilot 19 PAX operation, then this aircraft would be a hit in the US PAX market.


Why isn't the FAA comfortable with single pilot operations for a 19 seater ?


Because of the legal requirements of Part 91 vs. Part 135.

Most of this has been baked into the Code of Federal Regulations and is not quickly changed.



You mean 135 vs 121. A 9 seat airliner is operated under 135, anything bigger has to be 121.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:05 pm

It's going to be fun when we start seeing cabins being fitted out for these, whether or not it's 9pax combis or 19pax passenger planes, it's going to be neat to see them...
 
airlinepeanuts
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:59 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
william wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Name some profitable markets that the revenue can support a $6 million plane and maybe $300,000 in minimal annual flight crew costs.


First, no one is paying full price on an aircraft, especially big order and 2nd, I am sure operators of 9 pax aircraft would not mind more capability from their aircraft. For all we know such a certification may start a new market niche.


You’re ducking my question. Smaller operators, like Great Lakes, don’t having the buying power of FDX, but at $4 million, the lease payments would be around $40,000 per month. Name some potential city-pairs served by 9-seaters that would open to 19-seaters? In the US, which is the one big market that drives others.


I feel like markets once served by the Q200 would work. Like PDT, SLE, LMT, BTM, AST, OTH and CLM
 
2175301
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:42 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Also, this beats the Otter or a Basler conversion for one very clear reason, that cannot be dismissed:
Worldwide already-existing Textron Support.


You are wrong about that. Viking has an Excellent history of providing world wide support for the De Havilland Models it now owns the Type Certificates of. They were in fact only allowed to buy the Type Certificates because they were already the best non-De Havilland support vendor out there for most of these aircraft.

It's only this Excellent level of world wide service that allowed it to successfully launch and market the upgraded Twin Otter-400. The vast majority of which have been sold all over the world and not in the USA or Canada.

So the Twin Otter is a viable cargo and 19 passenger aircraft world wide - with well known very good support. Textron does not really have an advantage there. It does appear that the Twin Otter will be a $Million or so cheaper, although it will burn a bit more fuel. Of course, anyplace that serves unimproved runways will likely buy the Twin Otter anyway as its designed for that kind of service.

The Basler BT-67 is approximately twice the size and not in the same market. However, Basler also has an excellent reputation on providing service world wide.

Have a great day,
Last edited by 2175301 on Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:46 am

airlinepeanuts wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
william wrote:

First, no one is paying full price on an aircraft, especially big order and 2nd, I am sure operators of 9 pax aircraft would not mind more capability from their aircraft. For all we know such a certification may start a new market niche.


You’re ducking my question. Smaller operators, like Great Lakes, don’t having the buying power of FDX, but at $4 million, the lease payments would be around $40,000 per month. Name some potential city-pairs served by 9-seaters that would open to 19-seaters? In the US, which is the one big market that drives others.


I feel like markets once served by the Q200 would work. Like PDT, SLE, LMT, BTM, AST, OTH and CLM


If a 1900 or Twin Otter can’t economically serve those markets today, why will a more expensive Cessna do so in the future?
 
2175301
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:53 am

Spacepope wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
$6-7 Million is a bit steep. That's 50% more than a Basler BT-67 with zero hours on it costs.
Twin Otter DHC-6-400 with glass cockpit is also cheaper. With way better runway performance and options like tundra tires, floats, amphibious, skis. You name it.

This plane is clearly designed around the FedEx boxes and that's the only thing they planned for. Which is fair enough. But I don't think we'll see many outside of FedEx.


But BT-67 conversions are a tiny trickle anymore. If FX were to possibly want an order similar in scale to this 50-unit one, could it possibly even be filled by the Basler line?


The answer to your question is YES; Basler could ramp up production and produce 50 aircraft at an end rate of 10 per year. This was seriously studied by Basler when some potential customer was looking at a possible order of that magnitude. They would need to rent more buildings and hire more workers; but the buildings are available in the local area and they are sure they could find the workers.

Their current production rate as been 2-3 per year for about the last decade. My recollection of the study results, which they talked about a couple years ago, was that Basler figured that they could double that rate withing a year and then double it again within 1.5 years after that to be at a rate of 10 per year. Going higher than 10 per year could be done, but not as cost effectively.

However, the Basler BT-67 is about twice the size and not a fuel efficient compared to the SkyCourier per flight, and not the size that FedEx was looking for from Cessna. I'm also not sure that it could handle standard sized pallets or cargo boxes.

Its speculation on my part... but it might have been FedEx that asked about a large order of Basler BT-67's

Have a great day,
 
Noshow
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:45 am

Have you ever seen a BT-67 cabin floor when parked on the ground? Not exactly horizontally...This is certainly NOT a package freighter.
I admire the Basler for being a smart reuse of existing airframes. This is a Jeep and made for exotic places. So my speculation is the DoS, or military support for Iraq or Afghanistan were the markets envisioned.
The SkyCourier is made for flights between runways with a given load of containers.
 
airlinepeanuts
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:03 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
airlinepeanuts wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

You’re ducking my question. Smaller operators, like Great Lakes, don’t having the buying power of FDX, but at $4 million, the lease payments would be around $40,000 per month. Name some potential city-pairs served by 9-seaters that would open to 19-seaters? In the US, which is the one big market that drives others.


I feel like markets once served by the Q200 would work. Like PDT, SLE, LMT, BTM, AST, OTH and CLM


If a 1900 or Twin Otter can’t economically serve those markets today, why will a more expensive Cessna do so in the future?


It’s not that they can’t economically serve those markets, in fact, a lot of them were good economically when Horizon flew to them with the Q200 and Dornier. It’s that there is a carrier operating those types of planes consistently on a commercial level. The only reason Horizon stopped flying to a lot of those places is they went with a larger plane that had 76 seats and made it not feasible.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:46 pm

airlinepeanuts wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
airlinepeanuts wrote:

I feel like markets once served by the Q200 would work. Like PDT, SLE, LMT, BTM, AST, OTH and CLM


If a 1900 or Twin Otter can’t economically serve those markets today, why will a more expensive Cessna do so in the future?


It’s not that they can’t economically serve those markets, in fact, a lot of them were good economically when Horizon flew to them with the Q200 and Dornier. It’s that there is a carrier operating those types of planes consistently on a commercial level. The only reason Horizon stopped flying to a lot of those places is they went with a larger plane that had 76 seats and made it not feasible.


They went to 76 seats because anything much smaller than that isn’t economically possible to operate and still make money, when operating under 121 regulations. Even the 50 seat market is going to quickly die off, there is no way someone could profitably fly a 19 seat airliner under 121 regulations today
 
airlinepeanuts
Posts: 179
Joined: Fri Mar 13, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:55 pm

DiamondFlyer wrote:
airlinepeanuts wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

If a 1900 or Twin Otter can’t economically serve those markets today, why will a more expensive Cessna do so in the future?


It’s not that they can’t economically serve those markets, in fact, a lot of them were good economically when Horizon flew to them with the Q200 and Dornier. It’s that there is a carrier operating those types of planes consistently on a commercial level. The only reason Horizon stopped flying to a lot of those places is they went with a larger plane that had 76 seats and made it not feasible.


They went to 76 seats because anything much smaller than that isn’t economically possible to operate and still make money, when operating under 121 regulations. Even the 50 seat market is going to quickly die off, there is no way someone could profitably fly a 19 seat airliner under 121 regulations today


Cape Air does pretty well
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:14 pm

Cape Air is on a scheduled 135 certificate for C402 ops, vastly different.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Cessna SkyCourier Public Flying Demo Tomorrow at EAA Airventure Oshkosh

Mon Aug 02, 2021 7:16 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Cape Air is on a scheduled 135 certificate for C402 ops, vastly different.


Exactly. 9 seats is the max for a 135 carrier in scheduled ops, hence why the 19 seat airliners went away in a hurry

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