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RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 6:26 am

tullamarine wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
No surprise here, Rex says its now looking at an $18 million loss for FY21 due to the Sydney lockdown and ensuing border closures , and will be implementing temporary and downs, details of those to be released at the end of this week.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -lockdowns

Rex was up against it at the best of times and in the best of conditions, even in the lockdown-free months, you have to wonder if this lockdown isn't the final nail in the coffin, although one could argue that Rex dug the actual grave itself with its B737 push.

I understand them making a loss but don't believe it can be blamed on Sydney lockdown given the lockdown didn't start until 26 June.

Haven't been following Rex development closely, are they selling their tickets way below operating cost? Apart from the one-and-off lockdown, why are they doing badly?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 6:30 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
No surprise here, Rex says its now looking at an $18 million loss for FY21 due to the Sydney lockdown and ensuing border closures , and will be implementing temporary and downs, details of those to be released at the end of this week.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -lockdowns

Rex was up against it at the best of times and in the best of conditions, even in the lockdown-free months, you have to wonder if this lockdown isn't the final nail in the coffin, although one could argue that Rex dug the actual grave itself with its B737 push.

I understand them making a loss but don't believe it can be blamed on Sydney lockdown given the lockdown didn't start until 26 June.

Haven't been following Rex development closely, are they selling their tickets way below operating cost? Apart from the one-and-off lockdown, why are they doing badly?

Their foray into jet operations has been a bit of a disaster. They have failed to attract anything like profitable loads despite selling fares at prices that barely cover the passenger taxes and airport charges they have to pay. The grounding of their jet fleet due to lockdowns may be the finishing touch though it will, at least, give them an excuse to exit gracefully.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 6:45 am

Well at least it gives the Singapore consortium of businessmen and Private Equity to write off their REX investment if their Jet Ops eventually file administration (or if it's 'that bad' the whole company goes down with it).

May give their American PE counterparts at Virgin the opportunity to pick up some 'assets' (such as slots or 'lucrative government subsidised regional routes') if REX ends up selling parts or whole in administration.
 
743Flyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 6:55 am

VA launching ADL-LST and resuming ADL-DRW in September

https://newsroom.virginaustralia.com/re ... -epic-sale
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:39 am

tullamarine wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
No surprise here, Rex says its now looking at an $18 million loss for FY21 due to the Sydney lockdown and ensuing border closures , and will be implementing temporary and downs, details of those to be released at the end of this week.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -lockdowns

Rex was up against it at the best of times and in the best of conditions, even in the lockdown-free months, you have to wonder if this lockdown isn't the final nail in the coffin, although one could argue that Rex dug the actual grave itself with its B737 push.

I understand them making a loss but don't believe it can be blamed on Sydney lockdown given the lockdown didn't start until 26 June.


Depends. Some accounting estimates might have turned out differently given the prospect of a 6 month lockdown which might have pushed some costs into FY21. From the top of my head, an onerous lease provision may be one of these estimates. Asset impairments might also be a cause. We will have to have a close look at the results.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:34 pm

Could 2021 prove to be an even worse year for QF considering it’s now their main hub (rather than MEL) in lockdown for what could be another few months?
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:36 pm

ben175 wrote:
Could 2021 prove to be an even worse year for QF considering it’s now their main hub (rather than MEL) in lockdown for what could be another few months?

It might be their main hub in lockdown but that doesn’t mean QF have been adjusting their schedule during these lockdowns to meet the market needs.

An example would be their East West B789 services which have now made their way onto the MELPER route which was assigned to SYDPER & BNEPER pre-lockdown.


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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:52 pm

EK413 wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Could 2021 prove to be an even worse year for QF considering it’s now their main hub (rather than MEL) in lockdown for what could be another few months?

It might be their main hub in lockdown but that doesn’t mean QF have been adjusting their schedule during these lockdowns to meet the market needs.

An example would be their East West B789 services which have now made their way onto the MELPER route which was assigned to SYDPER & BNEPER pre-lockdown.


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I can't see the 789 on MEL-PER would perform any better than SYD-PER given both Victorians and NSW residents are currently unable to enter WA without prior approval and 14 day self-quarantine on arrival.

I tend to agree that the current domestic situation will be incredibly debilitating for QF and VA, at least the equal of the situation in the second half of 2020. Not only do current restrictions make operating anything approaching a reliable schedule incredibly hard but these restrictions also increase hesitancy for future bookings with many saying "Ï'm not booking anything; I'll just have to cancel and fight to get a refund."
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:01 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
Well at least it gives the Singapore consortium of businessmen and Private Equity to write off their REX investment if their Jet Ops eventually file administration (or if it's 'that bad' the whole company goes down with it).

May give their American PE counterparts at Virgin the opportunity to pick up some 'assets' (such as slots or 'lucrative government subsidised regional routes') if REX ends up selling parts or whole in administration.

I really can't see VA and Bain being particularly interested in entering regional operations particularly using the ageing SAAB fleet that REX currently operates. Bain has been incredibly disciplined and they are unlikely to change course in a rash way.

Both the slots and the government subsidised routes will revert to the relevant federal and state government if forfeited by ZL. You'd think governments would be keen to avoid gifting QFLink a complete regional monopoly and would try to get Alliance and VA to enter the markets but whether they can tempt these 2 businesses, both currently well run, to dip their toes in is another matter.
 
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EK413
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Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:25 am

tullamarine wrote:
EK413 wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Could 2021 prove to be an even worse year for QF considering it’s now their main hub (rather than MEL) in lockdown for what could be another few months?

It might be their main hub in lockdown but that doesn’t mean QF have been adjusting their schedule during these lockdowns to meet the market needs.

An example would be their East West B789 services which have now made their way onto the MELPER route which was assigned to SYDPER & BNEPER pre-lockdown.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can't see the 789 on MEL-PER would perform any better than SYD-PER given both Victorians and NSW residents are currently unable to enter WA without prior approval and 14 day self-quarantine on arrival.

I tend to agree that the current domestic situation will be incredibly debilitating for QF and VA, at least the equal of the situation in the second half of 2020. Not only do current restrictions make operating anything approaching a reliable schedule incredibly hard but these restrictions also increase hesitancy for future bookings with many saying "Ï'm not booking anything; I'll just have to cancel and fight to get a refund."

My point is regarding QF adjusting their schedule.

No doubt the situation won’t be any better in VIC I’m just pointing out that QF haven’t been SYD centric…


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anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:53 am

tullamarine wrote:
I can't see the 789 on MEL-PER would perform any better than SYD-PER given both Victorians and NSW residents are currently unable to enter WA without prior approval and 14 day self-quarantine on arrival.

"


At least there is more chance of MEL coming out of lockdown and having borders with WA open this side of christmas than SYD. I mean seriously you can still play golf, view property etc during a lockdown... whats that all about?
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:48 am

tullamarine wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Well at least it gives the Singapore consortium of businessmen and Private Equity to write off their REX investment if their Jet Ops eventually file administration (or if it's 'that bad' the whole company goes down with it).

May give their American PE counterparts at Virgin the opportunity to pick up some 'assets' (such as slots or 'lucrative government subsidised regional routes') if REX ends up selling parts or whole in administration.

I really can't see VA and Bain being particularly interested in entering regional operations particularly using the ageing SAAB fleet that REX currently operates. Bain has been incredibly disciplined and they are unlikely to change course in a rash way.

Both the slots and the government subsidised routes will revert to the relevant federal and state government if forfeited by ZL. You'd think governments would be keen to avoid gifting QFLink a complete regional monopoly and would try to get Alliance and VA to enter the markets but whether they can tempt these 2 businesses, both currently well run, to dip their toes in is another matter.


Too much of a stretch I know- but alliance to me seems like a better fit for a niche carrier than ZL was. Could see more E-90s filling up some niche leisure routes. May have been a better way for ZL to building a domestic market leasing some E-90s abs working with alliance as QF have... be fascinating if ZL rise somehow from this mess. Good luck to them
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 2:05 am

anstar wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I can't see the 789 on MEL-PER would perform any better than SYD-PER given both Victorians and NSW residents are currently unable to enter WA without prior approval and 14 day self-quarantine on arrival.

"


At least there is more chance of MEL coming out of lockdown and having borders with WA open this side of christmas than SYD. I mean seriously you can still play golf, view property etc during a lockdown... whats that all about?

& drive to Albury to get vaccinated…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 2:36 am

tullamarine wrote:
Both the slots and the government subsidised routes will revert to the relevant federal and state government if forfeited by ZL. You'd think governments would be keen to avoid gifting QFLink a complete regional monopoly and would try to get Alliance and VA to enter the markets but whether they can tempt these 2 businesses, both currently well run, to dip their toes in is another matter.


Link Airways and FlyPelican on the East Coast, with Skytrans in the Cape and Gulf, and Skippers on the West Coast are much more likely to bid for that business than Virgin Australia. I can’t see them going back to ATR-72s, let alone small props. It doesn’t fit with their new business model. Alliance still operate F50s so they might be a possibility, but I personally doubt it

Link Airways in particular has really impressed me with their rapid but disciplined growth. Assuming that they have the funds during the current market conditions, picking up a fair chunk of Rex aircraft and routes would seem like a natural fit.
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 3:03 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Both the slots and the government subsidised routes will revert to the relevant federal and state government if forfeited by ZL. You'd think governments would be keen to avoid gifting QFLink a complete regional monopoly and would try to get Alliance and VA to enter the markets but whether they can tempt these 2 businesses, both currently well run, to dip their toes in is another matter.


Link Airways and FlyPelican on the East Coast, with Skytrans in the Cape and Gulf, and Skippers on the West Coast are much more likely to bid for that business than Virgin Australia. I can’t see them going back to ATR-72s, let alone small props. It doesn’t fit with their new business model. Alliance still operate F50s so they might be a possibility, but I personally doubt it

Link Airways in particular has really impressed me with their rapid but disciplined growth. Assuming that they have the funds during the current market conditions, picking up a fair chunk of Rex aircraft and routes would seem like a natural fit.


Yes very true - hopefully it wont come to that. But alot of ZLs routes are too small for QF or VA to get involved. The S340s while getting on a bit are a good size for alot of regional routes. Alliance have retired all their F50s now i think or are about to?

The lack of new aircraft in that size could really be a problem for regional australia in the future. Even the step up to the ATR 42 would be alot in many markets.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 3:39 am

anstar wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I can't see the 789 on MEL-PER would perform any better than SYD-PER given both Victorians and NSW residents are currently unable to enter WA without prior approval and 14 day self-quarantine on arrival.

"


At least there is more chance of MEL coming out of lockdown and having borders with WA open this side of christmas than SYD. I mean seriously you can still play golf, view property etc during a lockdown... whats that all about?

I think we can safely say that playing golf is not a highly transmissible event as long as you don't hit the 19th hole and golf isn't the thing that is causing the community transmission we currently see in Sydney.

Just because it is likely Victoria will be out of lockdown in the next week or so, doesn't mean WA will them us in. WA seems very content to be a hermit kingdom. They do have a good chance of getting the AFL Finals over there but I doubt the AFL will countenance a situation where visitors from other states are completely barred from entry and will then probably look to SA instead.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 3:46 am

smi0006 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Well at least it gives the Singapore consortium of businessmen and Private Equity to write off their REX investment if their Jet Ops eventually file administration (or if it's 'that bad' the whole company goes down with it).

May give their American PE counterparts at Virgin the opportunity to pick up some 'assets' (such as slots or 'lucrative government subsidised regional routes') if REX ends up selling parts or whole in administration.

I really can't see VA and Bain being particularly interested in entering regional operations particularly using the ageing SAAB fleet that REX currently operates. Bain has been incredibly disciplined and they are unlikely to change course in a rash way.

Both the slots and the government subsidised routes will revert to the relevant federal and state government if forfeited by ZL. You'd think governments would be keen to avoid gifting QFLink a complete regional monopoly and would try to get Alliance and VA to enter the markets but whether they can tempt these 2 businesses, both currently well run, to dip their toes in is another matter.


Too much of a stretch I know- but alliance to me seems like a better fit for a niche carrier than ZL was. Could see more E-90s filling up some niche leisure routes. May have been a better way for ZL to building a domestic market leasing some E-90s abs working with alliance as QF have... be fascinating if ZL rise somehow from this mess. Good luck to them

Alliance is not working with QF as such. They are doing a purely transactional wet-lease. Alliance has no role in the marketing or selling of the services it provides to QF; it is a fixed fee arrangement with all the upside and downside going to QF. It works for both airlines but it is not an alliance (excuse the pun). Operationally Alliance and VA are more closely linked with shared codes on a number of flights in Queensland.
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:00 am

anstar wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I can't see the 789 on MEL-PER would perform any better than SYD-PER given both Victorians and NSW residents are currently unable to enter WA without prior approval and 14 day self-quarantine on arrival.

"


At least there is more chance of MEL coming out of lockdown and having borders with WA open this side of christmas than SYD. I mean seriously you can still play golf, view property etc during a lockdown... whats that all about?


I would imagine the widebodies are primarily flying for freight anyway.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:35 am

tullamarine wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I really can't see VA and Bain being particularly interested in entering regional operations particularly using the ageing SAAB fleet that REX currently operates. Bain has been incredibly disciplined and they are unlikely to change course in a rash way.

Both the slots and the government subsidised routes will revert to the relevant federal and state government if forfeited by ZL. You'd think governments would be keen to avoid gifting QFLink a complete regional monopoly and would try to get Alliance and VA to enter the markets but whether they can tempt these 2 businesses, both currently well run, to dip their toes in is another matter.


Too much of a stretch I know- but alliance to me seems like a better fit for a niche carrier than ZL was. Could see more E-90s filling up some niche leisure routes. May have been a better way for ZL to building a domestic market leasing some E-90s abs working with alliance as QF have... be fascinating if ZL rise somehow from this mess. Good luck to them

Alliance is not working with QF as such. They are doing a purely transactional wet-lease. Alliance has no role in the marketing or selling of the services it provides to QF; it is a fixed fee arrangement with all the upside and downside going to QF. It works for both airlines but it is not an alliance (excuse the pun). Operationally Alliance and VA are more closely linked with shared codes on a number of flights in Queensland.


Sorry apologies- I was sharing two thought strains. One alliance has greater flexibility and foundation to be their own scheduled mainline jet carrier than ZL does, if Australia even has a market for a niche carrier.

Secondly, an desperately would have been smarter and more flexible for ZL to have wet-leased some Alliance jets rather than go full tilt and their own operation - although I image VA seemed far more precarious at that stage, and domestic borders a lot more stable.

Both points mute and not what occurred - just reflecting.
 
anstar
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:32 am

tullamarine wrote:
I think we can safely say that playing golf is not a highly transmissible event as long as you don't hit the 19th hole and golf isn't the thing that is causing the community transmission we currently see in Sydney.



Whilst golf may not be a superspreader event etc etc it still sets creates movement of people and is it really an essential activity? How many more things like golf are allowed and creating unnecessary movement of people? Anyways I diverge from the aviation topic ;)
 
KGarc21
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:43 am

A Cebu Pacific A330 is currently en route to PER. Looks like it will make its first visit to PER.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:29 am

Rex has this evening announced it will stand down "500 frontline workers including pilots, cabin crew, engineers, airport workers, calls centre, ground and head office operational staff" from August 16 to September 12 "in the first instance."

Full ASX statement at https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apima ... a206a39ff4
 
aschachter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:00 am

A question to ask, given the comments above, was REX's 737 operation in a separate entity to the REX Saab 340 operations, so they could put it into Administration without losing the Saab 340 operations, if the 737 operation was a failure?
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:48 am

aschachter wrote:
A question to ask, given the comments above, was REX's 737 operation in a separate entity to the REX Saab 340 operations, so they could put it into Administration without losing the Saab 340 operations, if the 737 operation was a failure?


Hopefully REX has its 738s on very short-term leases, that could pull the plug on very fast.

With the current NSW outbreak, we are lucky if QLD,VIC,WA will open there borders by Christmas.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:39 am

zkncj wrote:
aschachter wrote:
A question to ask, given the comments above, was REX's 737 operation in a separate entity to the REX Saab 340 operations, so they could put it into Administration without losing the Saab 340 operations, if the 737 operation was a failure?


Hopefully REX has its 738s on very short-term leases, that could pull the plug on very fast.

With the current NSW outbreak, we are lucky if QLD,VIC,WA will open there borders by Christmas.

I wouldn’t be counting on the borders opening up this year.


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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:40 pm

jrfspa320 wrote:

I would imagine the widebodies are primarily flying for freight anyway.


It must be, it certainly isn't for the passenger volume with the WA border closed.

Back in July 2020 I joined 37 other people in flying from Sydney to Perth on an A330-300. For Qantas' sake I hope there was a lot of cargo down below, because they could have put the passengers on a Q400 and still given us a row to ourselves.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 15, 2021 5:08 am

A not completely hypothetical question: could Alliance Airlines buy out Rex? Rex's badly-timed decision to launch Boeing 737 jet services in the middle of Covid and compete directly with Qantas and Virgin is going to tip Rex into a massive loss, could this cause a bit of a shareholder revolt, so if Alliance decided to make a play for Rex and got enough shareholder support, Alliance would take over Rex? I suppose one area of concern would be that Qantas holds 20% of Alliance and has said it wants more, the ACCC would almost certainly say that Qantas has to drop its Alliance stake.
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:02 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
A not completely hypothetical question: could Alliance Airlines buy out Rex? Rex's badly-timed decision to launch Boeing 737 jet services in the middle of Covid and compete directly with Qantas and Virgin is going to tip Rex into a massive loss, could this cause a bit of a shareholder revolt, so if Alliance decided to make a play for Rex and got enough shareholder support, Alliance would take over Rex? I suppose one area of concern would be that Qantas holds 20% of Alliance and has said it wants more, the ACCC would almost certainly say that Qantas has to drop its Alliance stake.


Unfortunately would it be best for Alliance to wait for REX to go broken. Then pickup there assets at bargain rates form the liquidators? Without out having to pick up any of ZL loses and debts to suppliers.

Are all of ZL’s 340s own? Wouldn’t the total cost of that fleet wouldn’t be much if you got it an lan liquidators sale?
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:56 am

As expected, Virgin Australia will retire 'The Club' brand. Will keep 'The Club' lounges in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and will reopen in March 2022 under a new name.

Canberra and Perth 'The Club' lounges will close.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... club-brand
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:21 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
A not completely hypothetical question: could Alliance Airlines buy out Rex? Rex's badly-timed decision to launch Boeing 737 jet services in the middle of Covid and compete directly with Qantas and Virgin is going to tip Rex into a massive loss, could this cause a bit of a shareholder revolt, so if Alliance decided to make a play for Rex and got enough shareholder support, Alliance would take over Rex? I suppose one area of concern would be that Qantas holds 20% of Alliance and has said it wants more, the ACCC would almost certainly say that Qantas has to drop its Alliance stake.

I doubt that either Alliance or Virgin are interested in saving ZL or acquiring its assets. The Saabs are old and approaching replacement age though it is hard to see what aircraft this would be. ATR42 is possible but it is sill a significant jump in size. If Rex were to fail, the contract routes it operates would return to the state governments so they are not an asset you could automatically acquire. Likewise, airport slots would go back to the federal government.

QF has 20% of Alliance but has no board influence over the business and is unlikely to receive ACCC approval to increase its holding. It currently represents a stranded asset to QF but has been very profitable with significant growth in share price whilst QF has held its passive interest. At some point, QF will need to consider whether it cashes out or whether it thinks it may one day win over the ACCC which is a big ask given the virtual monopoly it would give QF over regional services.
 
qf2048
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:35 am

If ZL falls over I'd like to see the likes of Link Airways and FlyPelican, at least in NSW, take over those regional routes. FC already operate SF340B so they might be able to pick up a few more for their fleet.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 11:48 am

I’m really feeling for the Aussie industry today. I got thinking back to pre-covid times when route announcements and record breaking pax numbers were aplenty across the board.

Sending thoughts to anyone and everyone who’s job and livelihood has been affected. Hopefully 2022 will be a better year than 2021.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:44 pm

If ZL ends up exiting the trunk routes, it would be a very brave (even foolhardy) airline that would step in and try to establish itself in its place. It's not as if the conditions which have damaged ZL's prospects will suddenly disappear for a new entrant.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 9:48 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
If ZL ends up exiting the trunk routes, it would be a very brave (even foolhardy) airline that would step in and try to establish itself in its place. It's not as if the conditions which have damaged ZL's prospects will suddenly disappear for a new entrant.


With the current Australian aviation market as it is, the only "third" player I could ever see would be if QF ever decided to offload JQ and it operated as a competitor.
Can't see it happening though.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 17, 2021 6:07 am

DavidByrne wrote:
If ZL ends up exiting the trunk routes, it would be a very brave (even foolhardy) airline that would step in and try to establish itself in its place. It's not as if the conditions which have damaged ZL's prospects will suddenly disappear for a new entrant.

Those conditions existed when ZL decided to enter the mainline market so they can't really use it as an excuse. It appears ZL's modeling assumed VA would disappear completely; as soon as that became false, ZL should have gone back to the drawing board and probably walked away.

There is no realistic market for a third airline in Australia. NZ was rumoured to have looked at it a couple of times and have wisely decided that they would be crushed and it is better for them to stay a very big fish in its existing small pond.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 17, 2021 6:15 am

It'll be a long while if NZ goes any further in the Australian market again outside of its current QF domestic codeshare & interline/FF arrangements on both ends.

Considering the reports in other forums from 'various insiders' pointing that revenue coming in with the QF partnership is 'allegedly' generating more than its time in the former VA JV, it'll be a long while before NZ looks at either partnering with other existing carriers (e.g VA) or the extremely less likely option of them going alone with expansion in the AU domestic market.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:02 am

Virgin Blue, sorry, I mean Virgin Australia, has introduced 'Economy Lite' fares with no checked bag.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ggage-fare

Now that Virgin charges for economy meals and still doesn't have WiFi this is actually basically NZ's entry-level 'Seat' fare. The actual savings don't appear to be much but I think it's smart of Virgin to go down this path, and it would not surprise me if this was another part of Paul Scurrah's plans which Bain has adopted.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 3498
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:35 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Virgin Blue, sorry, I mean Virgin Australia, has introduced 'Economy Lite' fares with no checked bag.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ggage-fare

Now that Virgin charges for economy meals and still doesn't have WiFi this is actually basically NZ's entry-level 'Seat' fare. The actual savings don't appear to be much but I think it's smart of Virgin to go down this path, and it would not surprise me if this was another part of Paul Scurrah's plans which Bain has adopted.

Unbundling is all the rage with lots of airlines. People are happy to accept less frills if they perceive there is a saving particularly if they don't really feel they need the particular item. WiFi is a classic example here with it being a great benefit to some and completely worthless to others.

VA is doing it in a similar way to most mainline US airlines (and NZ) which offer a base Economy product as well as higher levels with more features at higher charges. VA continues to be more generous with luggage however. Most US airlines charge for hold luggage on all but their most expensive Economy fares which tends to lead to the absolute chaos of in-cabin luggage so often witnessed in the States but this is not such a problem for VA which polices its cabin baggage rules much better than US mainlines.

From the airline point of view, it can also be profitable because no one really knows how much the stripped out benefit actually costs the airline so by taking it out of a fare and making a chargeable optional extra can be a very profitable strategy and one which low-cost airlines such as Ryanair have known about for years.

Many international airlines have started to unbundle their premium offerings. For example, EK now offers an unbundled J product that has no lounge access, lower status credit points and less luggage allowance. This may make sense as airlines recover from the pandemic and discover corporate budgets don't return to pre-Covid levels. Stripping out some of the froo-froo lowers costs to the airlines as well as making the airline more attractive to the corporate travel managers.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 1172
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:33 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Virgin Blue, sorry, I mean Virgin Australia, has introduced 'Economy Lite' fares with no checked bag.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ggage-fare

Now that Virgin charges for economy meals and still doesn't have WiFi this is actually basically NZ's entry-level 'Seat' fare. The actual savings don't appear to be much but I think it's smart of Virgin to go down this path, and it would not surprise me if this was another part of Paul Scurrah's plans which Bain has adopted.


Bain pretty much adoped the US3 and EU3's Domestic/Short Haul product, with LCC (pay per use) at the back and Domestic/Short Haul J (US First) at the front.

This is also in line with the standard offering of the LCC's 'Medium/Long Haul' service as well.
 
moa999
Posts: 1239
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:38 am

They've also wound back the fly ahead benefit for elite flyers to only the most expensive buckets for Gold flyers
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ent-flyers

This was a big benefit for self-employed/ small businesses where there was greater focus on fares paid.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4749
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:14 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Virgin Blue, sorry, I mean Virgin Australia, has introduced 'Economy Lite' fares with no checked bag.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ggage-fare

Now that Virgin charges for economy meals and still doesn't have WiFi this is actually basically NZ's entry-level 'Seat' fare. The actual savings don't appear to be much but I think it's smart of Virgin to go down this path, and it would not surprise me if this was another part of Paul Scurrah's plans which Bain has adopted.


Well its an product that seems to (pre-covid) help make NZ allot of money, next will we see some all Y VA planes return?
 
tullamarine
Posts: 3498
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:57 am

zkncj wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Virgin Blue, sorry, I mean Virgin Australia, has introduced 'Economy Lite' fares with no checked bag.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ggage-fare

Now that Virgin charges for economy meals and still doesn't have WiFi this is actually basically NZ's entry-level 'Seat' fare. The actual savings don't appear to be much but I think it's smart of Virgin to go down this path, and it would not surprise me if this was another part of Paul Scurrah's plans which Bain has adopted.


Well its an product that seems to (pre-covid) help make NZ allot of money, next will we see some all Y VA planes return?

What do you mean return? TT had all economy but VA has never had all Y on its 737s and DJ had convertible Premium Economy from 2007 which was rarely not configured in premium format. VA only has all Y on its VARA A320s which are largely used for FIFO. Its wet-leased F100s operated by Alliance are all-Economy.
 
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rtav
Posts: 77
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:10 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:30 am

tullamarine wrote:
zkncj wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Virgin Blue, sorry, I mean Virgin Australia, has introduced 'Economy Lite' fares with no checked bag.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ggage-fare

Now that Virgin charges for economy meals and still doesn't have WiFi this is actually basically NZ's entry-level 'Seat' fare. The actual savings don't appear to be much but I think it's smart of Virgin to go down this path, and it would not surprise me if this was another part of Paul Scurrah's plans which Bain has adopted.


Well its an product that seems to (pre-covid) help make NZ allot of money, next will we see some all Y VA planes return?

What do you mean return? TT had all economy but VA has never had all Y on its 737s and DJ had convertible Premium Economy from 2007 which was rarely not configured in premium format. VA only has all Y on its VARA A320s which are largely used for FIFO. Its wet-leased F100s operated by Alliance are all-Economy.


VARA’s own F100’s are also all economy, Y100.
 
FL420FT
Posts: 99
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:30 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 9:54 am

Qantas to make COVID-19 Vaccinatinos mandatory ...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-18/ ... /100386206
 
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Chipmunk1973
Posts: 540
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:16 am

Two articles about two airlines, but covering a similar topic: Frequent Flyer Programs.

QF adding another year to your current tier, with a small caveat.
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... on-to-2023

VA adding additional status credits to premium fares.
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... mium-fares
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 868
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:08 am

anstar wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I can't see the 789 on MEL-PER would perform any better than SYD-PER given both Victorians and NSW residents are currently unable to enter WA without prior approval and 14 day self-quarantine on arrival.

"


At least there is more chance of MEL coming out of lockdown and having borders with WA open this side of christmas than SYD. I mean seriously you can still play golf, view property etc during a lockdown... whats that all about?


I dont know about that, we came out of one lock down this year to about 2 weeks later to go into this one, it was meant to be 7 days, then went to 14 days, and as of today the rates are going up so I dont think we will be getting out of this next week. I hope we are not going to I hope we are not going to catch up to Sydney but its not looking to good at the moment, So the way it is at the moment, I think we have the same chance as Sydney coming out of lockdown and having a hard boarder with WA. News today feels like we might have to write September of as well. To all our Sydney A Net friends, stay safe and hope that great city comes back to life very quickly.
 
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qf2220
Posts: 2259
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:16 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:28 am

Reported by pbody on the Kabul evacuation thread:

Interesting side effect of all this, the Australian government apparently hasn’t raised the inbound arrival quarantine capacity and airlines are now in the process of canceling aussie expats flights from around the world because there is allegedly no capacity for them despite all the Afghan returnees quarantining in Perth which hasn’t had any other international arrivals.
 
Foopz
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri May 29, 2020 10:22 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 8:40 am

qf2220 wrote:
Reported by pbody on the Kabul evacuation thread:

Interesting side effect of all this, the Australian government apparently hasn’t raised the inbound arrival quarantine capacity and airlines are now in the process of canceling aussie expats flights from around the world because there is allegedly no capacity for them despite all the Afghan returnees quarantining in Perth which hasn’t had any other international arrivals.


Completely false, first as stated by WA Premier during the press conference the day of arrival the flight did not factor into arrival caps, and second because PER has had no change in the number of operating passenger flights despite the arrivals cap (SQ 10 weekly, TR 7 weekly, QR 3-4 weekly, EK 2 weekly).
 
Foopz
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri May 29, 2020 10:22 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 8:44 am

QF Freight's next A321 (VH-ULW) is due to arrive at PER tomorrow afternoon, scheduled for 14:30 as QF7302.
 
pbody
Posts: 97
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:09 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 11:34 am

Foopz wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Reported by pbody on the Kabul evacuation thread:

Interesting side effect of all this, the Australian government apparently hasn’t raised the inbound arrival quarantine capacity and airlines are now in the process of canceling aussie expats flights from around the world because there is allegedly no capacity for them despite all the Afghan returnees quarantining in Perth which hasn’t had any other international arrivals.


Completely false, first as stated by WA Premier during the press conference the day of arrival the flight did not factor into arrival caps, and second because PER has had no change in the number of operating passenger flights despite the arrivals cap (SQ 10 weekly, TR 7 weekly, QR 3-4 weekly, EK 2 weekly).


Yup it turns out it’s just a convenient excuse United has been using to kick passengers off flights

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