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New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:57 pm

Welcome to the New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021. Please continue to add your news and comments below.

Link to previous thread:

New Zealand Aviation Thread- July 2021
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:54 am

The 1 August 2021, marks 500 days since the New Zealand boarder hard shut at 11:59pm on the 19 March 2020.

Hard to believe that it has now been an year and half, since we used to enjoy freedom of International travel.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 02, 2021 4:20 pm

Jetstar has once again postponed the relaunch of NZ to Rarotonga flights to March 2022. Passengers booked with them have 3 options it will be hard to get seats on Air NZ at short notice I reckon.

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/jetstar- ... ok-islands
 
NZ6
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Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 02, 2021 10:59 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Jetstar has once again postponed the relaunch of NZ to Rarotonga flights to March 2022. Passengers booked with them have 3 options it will be hard to get seats on Air NZ at short notice I reckon.

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/jetstar- ... ok-islands


I suspect a lot of this has to do with their share of the market and public confidence around a pause etc.

It's very hard to get accommodation in Raro for the majority of the rest of this year. So to put very simply - if JQ started services again their passengers might not find anywhere to stay.

I've been saying this for months now.

I suspect JQ will wait for the Tasman to open outside of a temperamental bubble situation, that'll take the heat away from Raro and free up space across more than one carrier.
 
DavidByrne
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Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:49 pm

NZ6 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Jetstar has once again postponed the relaunch of NZ to Rarotonga flights to March 2022. Passengers booked with them have 3 options it will be hard to get seats on Air NZ at short notice I reckon.

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/jetstar- ... ok-islands


I suspect a lot of this has to do with their share of the market and public confidence around a pause etc.

It's very hard to get accommodation in Raro for the majority of the rest of this year. So to put very simply - if JQ started services again their passengers might not find anywhere to stay.

I've been saying this for months now.

I suspect JQ will wait for the Tasman to open outside of a temperamental bubble situation, that'll take the heat away from Raro and free up space across more than one carrier.

I suspect it has more to do with the Australia-Cook Islands bilateral. I assume it allows fifth freedom flights from NZ only as part of a journey commencing in Australia. The SAM is not relevant to that.
 
NZ6
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:35 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Jetstar has once again postponed the relaunch of NZ to Rarotonga flights to March 2022. Passengers booked with them have 3 options it will be hard to get seats on Air NZ at short notice I reckon.

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/jetstar- ... ok-islands


I suspect a lot of this has to do with their share of the market and public confidence around a pause etc.

It's very hard to get accommodation in Raro for the majority of the rest of this year. So to put very simply - if JQ started services again their passengers might not find anywhere to stay.

I've been saying this for months now.

I suspect JQ will wait for the Tasman to open outside of a temperamental bubble situation, that'll take the heat away from Raro and free up space across more than one carrier.

I suspect it has more to do with the Australia-Cook Islands bilateral. I assume it allows fifth freedom flights from NZ only as part of a journey commencing in Australia. The SAM is not relevant to that.


Do you know if this is in fact the case? or just suspect so....

I understood JetStar was able to fly NZ-CI under normal 5th freedom rights and a lot of their patronage was ex NZ vs ex AU.
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:08 am

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

I suspect it has more to do with the Australia-Cook Islands bilateral. I assume it allows fifth freedom flights from NZ only as part of a journey commencing in Australia. The SAM is not relevant to that.


Do you know if this is in fact the case? or just suspect so....

I understood JetStar was able to fly NZ-CI under normal 5th freedom rights and a lot of their patronage was ex NZ vs ex AU.


My understanding of 'normal' 5th freedom is that a service originating in country A can pick up pax in country B and transport them to country C . Without the leg from country A it does not fit into 5th freedom rights

The pax themselves don't have to come from country A, but the flight does ( in the same way that NZ's RAR-SYD flight when it operated was an AKL-RAR-SYD service even though absolutely nobody got on in AKL to go to SYD.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:16 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:

Do you know if this is in fact the case? or just suspect so....

I understood JetStar was able to fly NZ-CI under normal 5th freedom rights and a lot of their patronage was ex NZ vs ex AU.


My understanding of 'normal' 5th freedom is that a service originating in country A can pick up pax in country B and transport them to country C . Without the leg from country A it does not fit into 5th freedom rights

The pax themselves don't have to come from country A, but the flight does ( in the same way that NZ's RAR-SYD flight when it operated was an AKL-RAR-SYD service even though absolutely nobody got on in AKL to go to SYD.


What is stopping JQ running the flight SYD-AKL or where ever to AKL as freight only then running AKL-RAR with the same flight number?
 
Unclekoru
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:21 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:

Do you know if this is in fact the case? or just suspect so....

I understood JetStar was able to fly NZ-CI under normal 5th freedom rights and a lot of their patronage was ex NZ vs ex AU.


My understanding of 'normal' 5th freedom is that a service originating in country A can pick up pax in country B and transport them to country C . Without the leg from country A it does not fit into 5th freedom rights

The pax themselves don't have to come from country A, but the flight does ( in the same way that NZ's RAR-SYD flight when it operated was an AKL-RAR-SYD service even though absolutely nobody got on in AKL to go to SYD.


Yes, given Jetstar is an Australian carrier, they would require 7th freedom rights to operate NZ-RAR without it being an extension of an Australian service.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:56 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:

Do you know if this is in fact the case? or just suspect so....

I understood JetStar was able to fly NZ-CI under normal 5th freedom rights and a lot of their patronage was ex NZ vs ex AU.


My understanding of 'normal' 5th freedom is that a service originating in country A can pick up pax in country B and transport them to country C . Without the leg from country A it does not fit into 5th freedom rights

The pax themselves don't have to come from country A, but the flight does ( in the same way that NZ's RAR-SYD flight when it operated was an AKL-RAR-SYD service even though absolutely nobody got on in AKL to go to SYD.


You are correct, the JQ example is the 7th.. I still thought they were able to do it
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:58 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

What is stopping JQ running the flight SYD-AKL or where ever to AKL as freight only then running AKL-RAR with the same flight number?


While I don't claim to know the specifics of this particular arrangement, I can say that often cargo traffic rights and passenger traffic rights fall under different sections of an agreement and are not necessarily interchangeable.

I spent a number of years working on the periphery of the travel industry a long time ago, and what I did learn is that while there can be a broad similarity between different agreements, some of them can have incredibly detailed and specific requirements 'baked in'. If one seemingly minor requirement is not met, the rights may no longer apply. While I haven't tried searching for the exact terms of JQ's rights to operate Australia-New Zealand-Rarotonga ( and the finer points are not always published for public consumption) I will say that in my experience it is rarely a simple matter to change how they work ( and of course, it could also be a matter that JQ could get a workaround, but they'd rather deploy their aircraft in another market)
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 6:08 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

What is stopping JQ running the flight SYD-AKL or where ever to AKL as freight only then running AKL-RAR with the same flight number?


While I don't claim to know the specifics of this particular arrangement, I can say that often cargo traffic rights and passenger traffic rights fall under different sections of an agreement and are not necessarily interchangeable.

I spent a number of years working on the periphery of the travel industry a long time ago, and what I did learn is that while there can be a broad similarity between different agreements, some of them can have incredibly detailed and specific requirements 'baked in'. If one seemingly minor requirement is not met, the rights may no longer apply. While I haven't tried searching for the exact terms of JQ's rights to operate Australia-New Zealand-Rarotonga ( and the finer points are not always published for public consumption) I will say that in my experience it is rarely a simple matter to change how they work ( and of course, it could also be a matter that JQ could get a workaround, but they'd rather deploy their aircraft in another market)


Yes I wouldn’t know specifics either.

QF used to run at one stage An A330 SYD-AKL-LAX-JFK with a different flight number on each sector QF141/QF25/QF107 the QF107 was a SYD-LAX sector on a 744 then onto the A332. I can’t remember at the time though if QF25 was a 738 MEL-AKL? Which kind of cancels what I am trying to say anyway.

Different I know to what we are talking about with JQ.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 6:52 am

Unclekoru wrote:
Kiwiandrew wrote:
NZ6 wrote:


My understanding of 'normal' 5th freedom is that a service originating in country A can pick up pax in country B and transport them to country C . Without the leg from country A it does not fit into 5th freedom rights

The pax themselves don't have to come from country A, but the flight does ( in the same way that NZ's RAR-SYD flight when it operated was an AKL-RAR-SYD service even though absolutely nobody got on in AKL to go to SYD.


Yes, given Jetstar is an Australian carrier, they would require 7th freedom rights to operate NZ-RAR without it being an extension of an Australian service.


You would think all it would take would be an simple sit-down (Zoom Style) with Officials from New Zealand, Australia and the Cook Islands and this could be sorted by an very simple piece of paper signed by the three parties. Approving temporary 7th freedom rights to JQ to opperate NZ-CI, surely the Cook Islands wouldn't be against it after it would help there economy.

After all we have 'crown law' team, that would have more than enough resources to draft an agreement.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:01 am

zkncj wrote:
Unclekoru wrote:
Kiwiandrew wrote:

My understanding of 'normal' 5th freedom is that a service originating in country A can pick up pax in country B and transport them to country C . Without the leg from country A it does not fit into 5th freedom rights

The pax themselves don't have to come from country A, but the flight does ( in the same way that NZ's RAR-SYD flight when it operated was an AKL-RAR-SYD service even though absolutely nobody got on in AKL to go to SYD.


Yes, given Jetstar is an Australian carrier, they would require 7th freedom rights to operate NZ-RAR without it being an extension of an Australian service.


You would think all it would take would be an simple sit-down (Zoom Style) with Officials from New Zealand, Australia and the Cook Islands and this could be sorted by an very simple piece of paper signed by the three parties. Approving temporary 7th freedom rights to JQ to opperate NZ-CI, surely the Cook Islands wouldn't be against it after it would help there economy.

After all we have 'crown law' team, that would have more than enough resources to draft an agreement.

Sounds simple, but international agreements of any sort are always complex - speaking here from experience. The question here is - would it be a priority for New Zealand in the absence (seemingly) of pressure from the country (Australia) whose carrier would benefit or the country (Cook Is) whose tourism industry would benefit? Why would we otherwise put ourselves out?
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:09 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
[While I haven't tried searching for the exact terms of JQ's rights to operate Australia-New Zealand-Rarotonga ( and the finer points are not always published for public consumption) I will say that in my experience it is rarely a simple matter to change how they work)

Yes, the fine details of international agreements of many kinds are not always made public. Frustratingly.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 4:00 pm

Interesting discussion, it's a very complex matter and not so easy to resolve. I think JQ might know of the hotel room shortage on the Cooks also so have delayed plans for this reason.
 
a7ala
Posts: 401
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:16 pm

zkncj wrote:
You would think all it would take would be an simple sit-down (Zoom Style) with Officials from New Zealand, Australia and the Cook Islands and this could be sorted by an very simple piece of paper signed by the three parties. Approving temporary 7th freedom rights to JQ to opperate NZ-CI, surely the Cook Islands wouldn't be against it after it would help there economy.

After all we have 'crown law' team, that would have more than enough resources to draft an agreement.


Given Mike Pero's recent comments regarding the unhelpfulness of the Cook Islands govt with regards to Pasifika, something tells me they arent particularly fussed about more airlines operatings. When you have an airline like Air NZ which is so dominant in a market, they can place a lot of pressure on governments to not support other operators.
 
Toenga
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:22 pm

It appears that the Cook Islands are now operating at maximum sustainable inbound tourism capacity.
So there is absolutely no advantage to them in having more operators providing in bound air services. Air NZ with it's operational base at one end of the flight, and choice of aircraft type, can provide a lot more flexibility in providing the absolutely essential air freight capacity, and the variable passenger capacity, in the event of any disruption.
There is also the question of loyalty. Tourism in the Cook islands and locals access to NZ has been almost totally dependant on Air NZ for decades now, in good times and not so good times. For Air NZ the Cook islands have also provided them with a loyal stable market for both passengers and air freight.
 
NZ6
Posts: 2007
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:25 pm

a7ala wrote:
zkncj wrote:
You would think all it would take would be an simple sit-down (Zoom Style) with Officials from New Zealand, Australia and the Cook Islands and this could be sorted by an very simple piece of paper signed by the three parties. Approving temporary 7th freedom rights to JQ to opperate NZ-CI, surely the Cook Islands wouldn't be against it after it would help there economy.

After all we have 'crown law' team, that would have more than enough resources to draft an agreement.


Given Mike Pero's recent comments regarding the unhelpfulness of the Cook Islands govt with regards to Pasifika, something tells me they arent particularly fussed about more airlines operatings. When you have an airline like Air NZ which is so dominant in a market, they can place a lot of pressure on governments to not support other operators.


I think Mikes blowing smoke over his own failures.

Like I said, although I could very well be wrong. I thought JQ were able to operate AKL-RAR alone if they wanted even if they've previously done it under AU-CI agreements.

But based on Mikes business style I wouldn't be surprised at all if his business plan was based on some operational aid / support from the CI. When they've said no as they don't "need" him and he's seen NZ/JQ are circling and quickly worked out any profit would be highly unlikely and small if any.

At the end of the day, NZ's very popular with the average Kiwi and the CI are very small. There's millions tied up in existing credits and there's security around any future credits if it did go tits up. It makes it bloody hard for another carrier let alone a start up.
 
tullamarine
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:57 am

Toenga wrote:
It appears that the Cook Islands are now operating at maximum sustainable inbound tourism capacity.
So there is absolutely no advantage to them in having more operators providing in bound air services. Air NZ with it's operational base at one end of the flight, and choice of aircraft type, can provide a lot more flexibility in providing the absolutely essential air freight capacity, and the variable passenger capacity, in the event of any disruption.
There is also the question of loyalty. Tourism in the Cook islands and locals access to NZ has been almost totally dependant on Air NZ for decades now, in good times and not so good times. For Air NZ the Cook islands have also provided them with a loyal stable market for both passengers and air freight.

The fact is I don't really think JQ are that interested in Cook Islands at the moment. It is an incredibly small market for them at the best of times. Everyone agrees there is little hotel capacity available in the Cook Islands that is not already being fully covered by NZ. Demand for the Cook Islands from New Zealand must be very high given it is the only tropical location currently easily accessible for them. Likewise JQ (as well as QF and VA) continue to do well into North Queensland and Darwin as the only realistic options for tropical holidays for all Australians except those in WA who can also visit Broome etc.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 1:00 am

Looking like the financial situation of Air NZ is getting worse for next year. With a $530m loss expected for 2022. The Tasman closing is having a huge impact on the business.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/111 ... ncial-year
 
zkncj
Posts: 4370
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:16 am

Toenga wrote:
It appears that the Cook Islands are now operating at maximum sustainable inbound tourism capacity.
So there is absolutely no advantage to them in having more operators providing in bound air services. Air NZ with it's operational base at one end of the flight, and choice of aircraft type, can provide a lot more flexibility in providing the absolutely essential air freight capacity, and the variable passenger capacity, in the event of any disruption.
There is also the question of loyalty. Tourism in the Cook islands and locals access to NZ has been almost totally dependant on Air NZ for decades now, in good times and not so good times. For Air NZ the Cook islands have also provided them with a loyal stable market for both passengers and air freight.


From Mid-August NZ is operating approximately double daily 789s into RAR. Think it would still be slightly less seats per week, than when JQ/VA we’re on the market too?

Say NZ was sending the code 2 789s into RAR, that would be just under 4000x weekly seats.

Would nice to see maybe an twice weekly a321/320Neo service from either WLG or CHC into the mix.

Surely they would be demand for an Friday/Saturday service ex WLG/CHC

Time to complete that never completed hotel in Rarotonga.
 
a7ala
Posts: 401
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:42 am

zkncj wrote:
Would nice to see maybe an twice weekly a321/320Neo service from either WLG or CHC into the mix.

Surely they would be demand for an Friday/Saturday service ex WLG/CHC

Time to complete that never completed hotel in Rarotonga.


Plenty of demand - prior to Covid at this time of the year over 140 passengers travelling each way per day between WLG and NAN/RAR with CHC around the same amount. Each port would easily be able to support 3pw with A320Neo.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8117
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:05 am

a7ala wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Would nice to see maybe an twice weekly a321/320Neo service from either WLG or CHC into the mix.

Surely they would be demand for an Friday/Saturday service ex WLG/CHC

Time to complete that never completed hotel in Rarotonga.


Plenty of demand - prior to Covid at this time of the year over 140 passengers travelling each way per day between WLG and NAN/RAR with CHC around the same amount. Each port would easily be able to support 3pw with A320Neo.


Yep and as it seems to keep being said demand isn't the problem, or lack there of, but rather NZ not wanting to take away from AKL, the difference between NAN/RAR FROM CHC/WLG is that RAR can be filled ex AKL and you run out of hotel rooms and you can fill a daily 789 with PAX and freight ex AKL plus some without needed to do WLG/CHC flights.

140 each way a day WLG-RAR? Or 3 a week? Has to be 3 weekly? Otherwise we would have seen both WLG/CHC given the airline did say they would run WLG/CHC-RAR.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4370
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:52 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Yep and as it seems to keep being said demand isn't the problem, or lack there of, but rather NZ not wanting to take away from AKL, the difference between NAN/RAR FROM CHC/WLG is that RAR can be filled ex AKL and you run out of hotel rooms and you can fill a daily 789 with PAX and freight ex AKL plus some without needed to do WLG/CHC flights..


Which does ask the question, in an post covid world is NZ in its current form. In the interest of the entire country or just Auckland?

Going forward it’s like the next 2-5 years could be an very ‘short-haul’ centric market.

Should the Government being splitting NZ off into two competing airlines?

Has NZ been allowed (and to some level - to protected) than no else has been able to break into the short-haul market and made an major impact of the entire country.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8117
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 11:35 am

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Yep and as it seems to keep being said demand isn't the problem, or lack there of, but rather NZ not wanting to take away from AKL, the difference between NAN/RAR FROM CHC/WLG is that RAR can be filled ex AKL and you run out of hotel rooms and you can fill a daily 789 with PAX and freight ex AKL plus some without needed to do WLG/CHC flights..


Which does ask the question, in an post covid world is NZ in its current form. In the interest of the entire country or just Auckland?

Going forward it’s like the next 2-5 years could be an very ‘short-haul’ centric market.

Should the Government being splitting NZ off into two competing airlines?

Has NZ been allowed (and to some level - to protected) than no else has been able to break into the short-haul market and made an major impact of the entire country.


Outside of NAN/RAR and Trans Tasman where else could sustain flights ex WLG/CHC? Only RAR hasn’t been served in recent times atleast. It was ex CHC years ago once a week by NZ and then later VA.

2 competing airlines? NZ and who?

I really don’t think NZ is protected despite its dominance in the domestic market, you had Ansett then QF in 2 forms and now JQ, Ansett folded, QF took over under an NZ brand, then QF had a go and now JQ on the main trunk. Reality really is that New Zealand is a small country with a small population certainly more so outside the main centres and there just isn’t room for another major player. NZ are IMO fortunate in this regard which gives them a very dominant position in the domestic market.

Until the last 6-7 years when there was an influx on long haul carriers NZ also had very little direct competition in many of its long haul routes, not NZ’s fault that it got there first and others chose not to compete, again in many cases the market wasn’t big enough for more than 1 airlines on several routes. In fact HKG May have been about the only route which had 2 carriers on it right through? And NZ were rightly or wrongly able to sign a deal with CX and later SQ to SIN.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:36 pm

Air NZ gets quite a lot of flack on this channel IMHO and I have certainly been one of the contributors when it comes to business class and lounges, frequent flyer and shareholder returns vs improving the product offering, degradation of economy product offering etc -- and there are other commonly raised elements that I don't weigh into in this banter including AKL vs the rest of the country when it comes to international. I've always been a fan of NZ's crew and consistency compared to many airlines. And I do have some knowledge of this given I normally fly a lot - 50-60 x per year.

But I think NZ also do a great job in many other respects, compared to most other carriers on this planet, especially given the size of the market. Do we acknowledge this? For a city the size of AKL and country the size of NZ, there are an astonishing number of long haul non-stops, when you stop to think about it. NZ flies most of them. NZ have over the years learned to be flexible and aggressive in their mission of connecting NZ with many foreign ports. In my humble observation, we should be appreciative of that. When we call for... "WLG-RAR" or "CHC-NAN" etc...one can add further but I won't, we often think about this from the passenger POV but what about the logistics, crew positioning, training, configuration elements, etc. These are logistics the airline deals with internally - well understood in their scheduling and ramp and ops departments - understood via direct knowledge or inference by some on this channel - based on their learned or direct knowledge of airline ops. But in such times as now, IMHO we need to recognise we are not operating in normal times and perhaps we arm chair critics need to understand that there may be some significant factors at play that are not on our radar that NZ is well aware of. We don't have the full deck of cards. I am not reading a general sense of acknowledgement of this given the huge volatility at the moment.

Of all times in the last 40-50 years, to be calling for smaller / more obscure routes internationally to smaller cities in NZ, this doesn't seem to be the right time. There is so much more to this picture than meets the eye. Rather, surely best for NZ to reduce exposure and complexity to be ale to remain nimble and manage their costs in extraordinary times. Otherwise that extraordinary connectivity we have out of NZ to the rest of the world could be lost forever.

Time to cut our cloth given the current operating conditions IMHO.
 
NZ6
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:59 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Looking like the financial situation of Air NZ is getting worse for next year. With a $530m loss expected for 2022. The Tasman closing is having a huge impact on the business.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/111 ... ncial-year


It's not really getting worse, this is just revised earning guidance based on the current conditions. It's forward looking predictions. They could also improve from this depending on what happens around the Tasman over the coming months and how the second half of the year reacts once vaccinations programs start wrapping up..

Their original FY22 earning guidance was based around a full year of Trans-Tasman flying and some limited international flying in the second half.

Their financial situation (which is much more than year end profits) in very bleak times is actually very strong in context of what they've faced. They are running with a positive operating cashflow, they've draw down very little on the loan facility available to them and they're still still able to keep long term commitments around aircraft orders etc

This hasn't been without significant sacrifice it must be said but the airline will be in a good position to grow again once we come out of this. We just won't see that until FY23 and may not be in the black again until FY25 or beyond.
 
NZ6
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:17 pm

a7ala wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Would nice to see maybe an twice weekly a321/320Neo service from either WLG or CHC into the mix.

Surely they would be demand for an Friday/Saturday service ex WLG/CHC

Time to complete that never completed hotel in Rarotonga.


Plenty of demand - prior to Covid at this time of the year over 140 passengers travelling each way per day between WLG and NAN/RAR with CHC around the same amount. Each port would easily be able to support 3pw with A320Neo.


You say
at this time of year


Well, NZ has run CHC-NAN and WLG-NAN at this time of year before. I'm sure their historic reporting would know a lot more around how they worked out than a forum. Outside of "this time of year" you don't get 140 people daily connecting between WLG and NAN/RAR which likely explains why the season never got extended like DPS did as an example.

If we're talking about WLG/CHC RAR in the current conditions, we really need to accept there's huge logistical and operational constraints on the airline. Then the fact RAR is at 95%+ occupancy for the next 4 months makes is very hard to fill another A320, it's cheaper and better for the airline and the Cook Islands to send a single 787 with vs 2X A320 as well.

If we're talking long term. Like I said, historical data will know a lot more about what's actually happened vs forum opinion. However, will people travel closer to home over the coming years... this may well shift the goal posts.
 
NZ6
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:34 pm

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Yep and as it seems to keep being said demand isn't the problem, or lack there of, but rather NZ not wanting to take away from AKL, the difference between NAN/RAR FROM CHC/WLG is that RAR can be filled ex AKL and you run out of hotel rooms and you can fill a daily 789 with PAX and freight ex AKL plus some without needed to do WLG/CHC flights..


Which does ask the question, in an post covid world is NZ in its current form. In the interest of the entire country or just Auckland?

Going forward it’s like the next 2-5 years could be an very ‘short-haul’ centric market.

Should the Government being splitting NZ off into two competing airlines?

Has NZ been allowed (and to some level - to protected) than no else has been able to break into the short-haul market and made an major impact of the entire country.


Your first point is 100% valid and there is a lot of thinking in this space.....however like anything with COVID is curve ball after curve ball so who really knows. Did we expect to have record low unemployment and a roaring economy 18 months ago. Apparently COVID was going to kill business travel thanks to zoom and working from home but it's returned and domestically it's doing very, very well.

As for should NZ be split, I'm not exactly sure why you think they should? They've opened or done CHC-PER, CHC-NAN, CHC-LAX, CHC-OOL, CHC-SIN in additional to the 3 big Tasman ports, they've got a nice lounge for an end of line airport (no international transit). They've attempted CHC-AKL international "shuttle" flights. They've formed an alliance with CX which includes CHC-HKG

How has NZ neglected or used it sized to disadvantage competition or the people of CHC?

Surely you'd weaken NZ's ability to serve and support Christchurch by splitting them up. They've still a very small airline small margins.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 1161
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:46 pm

Welly airport continuing to whinge that a road crossing will destroy access to the airport. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/125971 ... ton-moving

If they want an overpass to grade separate the road from a crossing then they can pay for it. Otherwise be useful and put pressure on doing a proper mass transit link between Wellington station and the airport.
 
a7ala
Posts: 401
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:42 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Welly airport continuing to whinge that a road crossing will destroy access to the airport. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/125971 ... ton-moving

If they want an overpass to grade separate the road from a crossing then they can pay for it. Otherwise be useful and put pressure on doing a proper mass transit link between Wellington station and the airport.


I think you'll find opposition to the crossing is actually part of a wider push by not only the airport but other business in Wellington to get LWGM to focus on getting the big stuff right/agreed first before doing the little stuff which may or may not be consistent. The crossing is the straw thats broken the camels back for many Wellingtonians.
 
bevan7
Posts: 141
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:53 am

Anybody know why this flight from Wellington to Blenheim flew a strange S shaped flight?
https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ739L/28ab995f
 
User avatar
SelandiaBaru
Posts: 119
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2013 2:39 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:31 am

bevan7 wrote:
Anybody know why this flight from Wellington to Blenheim flew a strange S shaped flight?
https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ739L/28ab995f


Most likely ATC vectoring to sequence with the arrival of NZ8205 from AKL
 
bevan7
Posts: 141
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:00 pm

SelandiaBaru wrote:
bevan7 wrote:
Anybody know why this flight from Wellington to Blenheim flew a strange S shaped flight?
https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ739L/28ab995f


Most likely ATC vectoring to sequence with the arrival of NZ8205 from AKL


Interesting. The Auckland flight came in just behind. Do they want the 2 flights coming in close together?
 
User avatar
SelandiaBaru
Posts: 119
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2013 2:39 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:39 pm

bevan7 wrote:
SelandiaBaru wrote:
bevan7 wrote:
Anybody know why this flight from Wellington to Blenheim flew a strange S shaped flight?
https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ739L/28ab995f


Most likely ATC vectoring to sequence with the arrival of NZ8205 from AKL


Interesting. The Auckland flight came in just behind. Do they want the 2 flights coming in close together?


Looks like 8739 was a bit late. Maybe it was weather, wasn't at work so not much help sorry, could have been a number of reasons. But it's a not uncommon for the 12 minute hop to end up quite a bit longer. Using runway 06 can throw a spanner in the works for sequencing but don't think that was in use in this case.
 
NZ516
Posts: 821
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 4:07 am

New airport terminal opens for passengers in Napier. I like the seat with the propellor behind your head.
There has been a lot of new terminals around the country in recent years eg IVC, NPL, NSN, TRG, KKE plus extensions to others.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-t ... ZKOYAZA74/

Also a lot more seats coming in which will be a boost for the economy.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-t ... HYNIFZCJU/
 
zkncj
Posts: 4370
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 5:26 am

NZ516 wrote:
New airport terminal opens for passengers in Napier. I like the seat with the propellor behind your head.
There has been a lot of new terminals around the country in recent years eg IVC, NPL, NSN, TRG, KKE plus extensions to others.


Now AKL just needs to remember its not following the trend on building an new terminal....
 
User avatar
Kiwings
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:01 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 7:13 am

And to think that when Mangere opened, the domestic/international terminal , now the NZ domestic terminal was to be a cargo terminal with new pax terminal/s built......and here we are over 50 years later it is still the a pax terminal.
 
Toenga
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 7:56 am

There were some very durable first generation terminals that way outlasted their sell by dates.
The most obvious example being the pre war de haivlland saw tooth roof factory that survived first as the pink shed domestic terminal and then as a combined international and domestic terminal before being relegated for far too many more years as the domestic terminal.
The very basic weatherboard structure at Nelson was replaced in about 1970 by a flash new terminal, that later had a mezzanine added before bring recently replaced by an entire new terminal again. In Blenheim the tiny weatherboard shack survived until about 1990.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4370
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:11 am

Toenga wrote:
There were some very durable first generation terminals that way outlasted their sell by dates.
The most obvious example being the pre war de haivlland saw tooth roof factory that survived first as the pink shed domestic terminal and then as a combined international and domestic terminal before being relegated for far too many more years as the domestic terminal.
The very basic weatherboard structure at Nelson was replaced in about 1970 by a flash new terminal, that later had a mezzanine added before bring recently replaced by an entire new terminal again. In Blenheim the tiny weatherboard shack survived until about 1990.


CHC domestic latest along time in an pretty poor state, before there new terminal opened an few years back. It used to be arriving back into the 1960/70s.
 
Toenga
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:24 am

zkncj wrote:
Toenga wrote:
There were some very durable first generation terminals that way outlasted their sell by dates.
The most obvious example being the pre war de haivlland saw tooth roof factory that survived first as the pink shed domestic terminal and then as a combined international and domestic terminal before being relegated for far too many more years as the domestic terminal.
The very basic weatherboard structure at Nelson was replaced in about 1970 by a flash new terminal, that later had a mezzanine added before bring recently replaced by an entire new terminal again. In Blenheim the tiny weatherboard shack survived until about 1990.


CHC domestic latest along time in an pretty poor state, before there new terminal opened an few years back. It used to be arriving back into the 1960/70s.


I am showing my age here but when I first visited the Christchurch terminal it was so far ahead of any I had been in before, Wellington, Nelson, Blenheim Hamilton and Paraparaumu. Four wooden sheds and a fibrolite ex factory.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1439
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 1:45 pm

What thoughts do you all have re how things will be for vaccinated NZ citizens inbound to NZ next year? How do you see it working? I think this is an important topic, in so far as travellers and the economy are concerned. What is the likelihood of the 2 week quarantine continuing? What differentiation of conditions could emerge?
 
Toenga
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 9:49 pm

NZ321 wrote:
What thoughts do you all have re how things will be for vaccinated NZ citizens inbound to NZ next year? How do you see it working? I think this is an important topic, in so far as travellers and the economy are concerned. What is the likelihood of the 2 week quarantine continuing? What differentiation of conditions could emerge?

I think with the release of the report from the Sir David Skeggs led taskforce looking at our way forward from a post vaccinated NZ you will have a lot more clarity on what out governments next moves will be.
Not long to wait now, the report is due to be released on Thursday coming, my guess is at a 1300hrs covid press conference.
 
NZ6
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sat Aug 07, 2021 11:01 pm

NZ321 wrote:
What thoughts do you all have re how things will be for vaccinated NZ citizens inbound to NZ next year? How do you see it working? I think this is an important topic, in so far as travellers and the economy are concerned. What is the likelihood of the 2 week quarantine continuing? What differentiation of conditions could emerge?


As Toenga said, the Sir David Skegg lead advisory group are providing the government advice on how to safely reopen the border. We'll get some insights into that on Thursday. I can't wait!!

As for my personal predictions re your question...

We'll do nothing until we complete all stages of vaccination program, there's been a lot of talk around meeting a magical mark (80% for example). I think we'll get some insights into what we believe we need to achieve but I also think we won't make any changes as we hit that mark. I think as we get towards the latter stage of the main vaccine program we'll push those yet to get one to get one irrespective of what percentage of the population has had it.

I suspect come the new year we will start looking at rolling it out to 16-18year old's and likely commence boosters shots for the high risk groups.

But at some stage we'll progress away from MIQ and allow vaccinated Kiwis can self isolate at home. I'm hopeful negative test at day 3 could end that.
We'll allow travel from "safe zones" including foreign nationals who can prove a negative test and vaccination. While high risk countries will remain in MIQ
Hopefully we move to saliva testing to make this quick and easy.

As for how long we bother with MIQ for Kiwis who aren't vaccinated and when we allow inbound travel from high risk countries who knows, I don't think we'll know that yet either.

Ultimately we need to remember, one of our biggest issues all along is that we have an appallingly low number of ICU beds in our hospitals. So we'll continue to be restrictive until we get a very high level of vaccination uptake including booster shots which look more and more likely.
 
Deepinsider
Posts: 181
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:36 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 08, 2021 10:49 am

IATA has served the industry pretty well over the last 50yrs or so,
falling out of favour in recent years as LCC's found it not to fit their
business models...
World Health Org. should be leading us with 'vaccine passport' ideas, but
seems remarkably silent so far....
Both of the above who would be in a good position to set up some
protocols that could be at least reasonably secure are not leading....
How do you all think things will pan out re travel documents?
 
NZ321
Posts: 1439
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 08, 2021 1:50 pm

NZ6 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
What thoughts do you all have re how things will be for vaccinated NZ citizens inbound to NZ next year? How do you see it working? I think this is an important topic, in so far as travellers and the economy are concerned. What is the likelihood of the 2 week quarantine continuing? What differentiation of conditions could emerge?


As Toenga said, the Sir David Skegg lead advisory group are providing the government advice on how to safely reopen the border. We'll get some insights into that on Thursday. I can't wait!!

As for my personal predictions re your question...

We'll do nothing until we complete all stages of vaccination program, there's been a lot of talk around meeting a magical mark (80% for example). I think we'll get some insights into what we believe we need to achieve but I also think we won't make any changes as we hit that mark. I think as we get towards the latter stage of the main vaccine program we'll push those yet to get one to get one irrespective of what percentage of the population has had it.

I suspect come the new year we will start looking at rolling it out to 16-18year old's and likely commence boosters shots for the high risk groups.

But at some stage we'll progress away from MIQ and allow vaccinated Kiwis can self isolate at home. I'm hopeful negative test at day 3 could end that.
We'll allow travel from "safe zones" including foreign nationals who can prove a negative test and vaccination. While high risk countries will remain in MIQ
Hopefully we move to saliva testing to make this quick and easy.

As for how long we bother with MIQ for Kiwis who aren't vaccinated and when we allow inbound travel from high risk countries who knows, I don't think we'll know that yet either.

Ultimately we need to remember, one of our biggest issues all along is that we have an appallingly low number of ICU beds in our hospitals. So we'll continue to be restrictive until we get a very high level of vaccination uptake including booster shots which look more and more likely.


Enough la la land already. Don't you think? Where is the transparent info around preparing NZ's medical system for a border relaxation and their ability scale up to cope with Delta and subsequent mutations, for instance? Even with 80% vaccinated individuals, Covid will continue do its thing.. although it does appear that the severity of symptoms in individuals seems to be less but the overall infection rate higher. Sure looking forward to hearing about this soon.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4370
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Sun Aug 08, 2021 11:31 pm

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126010838/auckland-airport-lays-out-plan-to-merge-domestic-jet-operations-with-international-terminal

Did someone just get confused at AIAL an push go on this project by mistake? AKL new domestic terminal works to start early next year!
 
NZ6
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 09, 2021 12:32 am

zkncj wrote:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126010838/auckland-airport-lays-out-plan-to-merge-domestic-jet-operations-with-international-terminal

Did someone just get confused at AIAL an push go on this project by mistake? AKL new domestic terminal works to start early next year!


It's exciting isn't it. It needs to be done at some point and given work was well and truly underway pre COVID you may as well continue with it now. NZ even had a large project team for it.

I was actually thinking a few weeks back, I wish they'd moved Domestic over to International for the two years, would've given a much better customer experience. Obviously not that practical as people were still departing as well as all the customers and biosecurity considerations for arrivals.

A good little video on the AIAL website

https://corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz ... cture-plan
 
NZ6
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - August 2021

Mon Aug 09, 2021 12:47 am

NZ321 wrote:
Enough la la land already. Don't you think? Where is the transparent info around preparing NZ's medical system for a border relaxation and their ability scale up to cope with Delta and subsequent mutations, for instance? Even with 80% vaccinated individuals, Covid will continue do its thing.. although it does appear that the severity of symptoms in individuals seems to be less but the overall infection rate higher. Sure looking forward to hearing about this soon.


Well that's the argument isn't it. COVID isn't going to "go away" and we can't "wait for the world to eliminate it" as most other countries have no interest in that. The question is therefore when and how will we reopen?

It needs to be transparent. We need a plan.

Our health system hasn't changed, I believe we've acquired more ventilators but if we're to believe the Nurses (and we don't have any reason not to) they're already overworked and at breaking point and we don't have COVID here. We can't even seem to settle a pay dispute which appears to be based largely around working conditions.. So, 18 months on with the COVID situation worsening each day we've arguably not put our health system in any better position?!?!

But that's not aviation related is it. But non the less, we've got in my opinion the best vaccine, a single vaccine for everyone and enough for everyone who wants it. We're tacking comfortably ahead of "plan" even though there's no finer detail of this plan. So, how can we so sure I ask myself... Well they do have the detail but don't want to "fail" in the rollout so will keep it up their sleeve.

But we're tracking quickly towards year end. It only felt like a few months ago the first vaccine was arriving and it's hard to believe the current SYD outbreak has been going since June. So while year end seems a long way off, It'll come around quickly.

And when it does, if we're at 80%, 85%, 90% what are the next steps....

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