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slcdeltarumd11
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Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 6:59 pm

Business travel airports continue to suffer. Leisure destinations surge

change in seats in Q3 2021 versus Q3 2019

Salt Lake City: +6.9%
Denver: +1.6%
Phoenix: +0.9%
Miami: +0.3%

Orlando: -2.9%
Houston Intercontinental: -3.8%
Dallas Fort Worth: -4.1%
Fort Lauderdale: -4.8%
Charlotte: -6.2%
Las Vegas: -6.6%
Seattle: -14.1%
Atlanta: -16.3%
Chicago O’Hare: -18.8%
Baltimore: -20.8%
Washington Dulles: -21.3%
Newark: -22.8%
Minneapolis: -24.5%
Detroit: -24.8%
San Diego: -25.9%
Los Angeles: -28.8%
Philadelphia: -29.3%
New York JFK: -32.7%
Boston: -34.9%
New York La Guardia: -45.6%
San Francisco: -46.6%
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:01 pm

Salt Lake City and Denver were the least down airports during the peak of the pandemic also. Their surge is both population increases and outdoor tourism. Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual. Laguardia the business airport still down 45%!!!!
 
alasizon
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:08 pm

SLC isn't exactly a great measure Q3 to Q3 as DL had artificially limited themselves on SLC 2019Q3 due to construction - I'd estimate actual increase is 0.7-1.3% up of true growth.

That being said, no surprise that SLC/DEN/PHX are up.
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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:22 pm

Flight numbers were down more then seat numbers at slc q3 19. Delta upsized alot of planes in that time period too. But I agree it's inflated a little but I think still would be the biggest increase. It's true number as you said is probably closer to denver. AA is flying 321s slc-lax instead of their usual cr7s because of surging traffic , southwest keeps adding flights and filling them too. Carriers not delta keep adding seats and seeing surging traffic right now
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:29 pm

I wouldnt call Houston, DFW, or Charlotte leisure destinations.

I think it has to do, not just with leisure, but also with governmental restrictions and attitudes towards the virus which are more relaxed in the center of the country than on the coasts.
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:14 pm

Seats, not passengers (yet). I wouldn't bet on load factors being comparable to 3Q19.
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:45 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Salt Lake City and Denver were the least down airports during the peak of the pandemic also. Their surge is both population increases and outdoor tourism. Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual. Laguardia the business airport still down 45%!!!!


Also a lot of P2P routes were dropped in favor of routing people through mid continent hubs. WN isn't flying people OAK to IND anymore when they can just route them through DEN.
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:06 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Salt Lake City and Denver were the least down airports during the peak of the pandemic also. Their surge is both population increases and outdoor tourism. Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual. Laguardia the business airport still down 45%!!!!


Who knows if business travel will ever come back to pre-pandemic levels. I think the pandemic really changed the way companies operate.
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:12 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Business travel airports continue to suffer. Leisure destinations surge

change in seats in Q3 2021 versus Q3 2019

Salt Lake City: +6.9%
Denver: +1.6%
Phoenix: +0.9%
Miami: +0.3%

Orlando: -2.9%
Houston Intercontinental: -3.8%
Dallas Fort Worth: -4.1%
Fort Lauderdale: -4.8%
Charlotte: -6.2%
Las Vegas: -6.6%
Seattle: -14.1%
Atlanta: -16.3%
Chicago O’Hare: -18.8%
Baltimore: -20.8%
Washington Dulles: -21.3%
Newark: -22.8%
Minneapolis: -24.5%
Detroit: -24.8%
San Diego: -25.9%
Los Angeles: -28.8%
Philadelphia: -29.3%
New York JFK: -32.7%
Boston: -34.9%
New York La Guardia: -45.6%
San Francisco: -46.6%

Is this just July? Q3 2021 isn’t over for another two months.
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:14 pm

GlobalAirways wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Salt Lake City and Denver were the least down airports during the peak of the pandemic also. Their surge is both population increases and outdoor tourism. Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual. Laguardia the business airport still down 45%!!!!


Who knows if business travel will ever come back to pre-pandemic levels. I think the pandemic really changed the way companies operate.


Pre-pandemic levels exactly, maybe not. But itll be at least 80% of pre-pandemic levels. Were already seeing with out clients that, if you wont come see them, many wont do business with you.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
alasizon
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:30 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Seats, not passengers (yet). I wouldn't bet on load factors being comparable to 3Q19.


I can tell you DEN and PHX LFs are up about 5-6 points compared to 2019 for AA and WN.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:31 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
I wouldnt call Houston, DFW, or Charlotte leisure destinations.

I think it has to do, not just with leisure, but also with governmental restrictions and attitudes towards the virus which are more relaxed in the center of the country than on the coasts.


Dude, no one said those were leisure destinations. Their seat numbers are all down. It's slc, den, mia and phx are all lesiure travel destinations specifically outdoor leisure which is why they ate surging. Cities like houston, dallas and Charlotte are hurt by no conventions alone
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:42 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Flight numbers were down more then seat numbers at slc q3 19. Delta upsized alot of planes in that time period too. But I agree it's inflated a little but I think still would be the biggest increase. It's true number as you said is probably closer to denver. AA is flying 321s slc-lax instead of their usual cr7s because of surging traffic , southwest keeps adding flights and filling them too. Carriers not delta keep adding seats and seeing surging traffic right now


Well looking at todays schedule Delta has 7 flights on LAX-SLC 4x 321, 3x 739 vs AA 2 flights BTW there on a CR7 at least for today lol.WN has one flight nonstop i don't think Delta is worried or should be :roll:
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:45 pm

I'm a bit surprised some liesure airports did as well as they did. Partially as international travel is still down. e.g., FLL and MIA were down, but not as much as expected.

Orlando was just a little down, I wonder if due to the business component? (Note, I'm asking as I expected it to be up.

How is Tampa? (TPA)?


slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Salt Lake City and Denver were the least down airports during the peak of the pandemic also. Their surge is both population increases and outdoor tourism. Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual. Laguardia the business airport still down 45%!!!!

As others noted, business travel is returning. I am back on travel late this month. New York and San Francisco are their own case studies that go off topic as they are urban liesure destinations as well as business centers. Outdoor liesure seems to be the growth.

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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:01 pm

dlflynhayn wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Flight numbers were down more then seat numbers at slc q3 19. Delta upsized alot of planes in that time period too. But I agree it's inflated a little but I think still would be the biggest increase. It's true number as you said is probably closer to denver. AA is flying 321s slc-lax instead of their usual cr7s because of surging traffic , southwest keeps adding flights and filling them too. Carriers not delta keep adding seats and seeing surging traffic right now


Well looking at todays schedule Delta has 7 flights on LAX-SLC 4x 321, 3x 739 vs AA 2 flights BTW there on a CR7 at least for today lol.WN has one flight nonstop i don't think Delta is worried or should be :roll:


Ah wow. Jumping too fast to defend delta and not even reading again?? :white: J/K

No one claimed delta was being taken over or anything even close to that. Nothing at all to do with delta. For AA increasing from CR7s to 321 is a huge jump. They did this because they can't keep up with demand. AA has had a summer of just all full flights and no seats to sell. WN also added quite a few flights late because they were basically running out of seats. I was just showing the leisure travel demand is soaring this summer again at these destinations den, slc, mia, and phx. It goes along with national parks out west being packed outdoor lesiure demand is sky high still
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:13 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
I wouldnt call Houston, DFW, or Charlotte leisure destinations.

I think it has to do, not just with leisure, but also with governmental restrictions and attitudes towards the virus which are more relaxed in the center of the country than on the coasts.


Dude, no one said those were leisure destinations. Their seat numbers are all down. It's slc, den, mia and phx are all lesiure travel destinations specifically outdoor leisure which is why they ate surging. Cities like houston, dallas and Charlotte are hurt by no conventions alone


You’re being defensive for literally no reason.

You mentioned leisure vs. corporate in your OP. Hence my comment.
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:41 pm

alasizon wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Seats, not passengers (yet). I wouldn't bet on load factors being comparable to 3Q19.


I can tell you DEN and PHX LFs are up about 5-6 points compared to 2019 for AA and WN.


May I ask where you find load factor by carrier by airport?
 
alasizon
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 4:16 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
alasizon wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Seats, not passengers (yet). I wouldn't bet on load factors being comparable to 3Q19.


I can tell you DEN and PHX LFs are up about 5-6 points compared to 2019 for AA and WN.


May I ask where you find load factor by carrier by airport?

You can extract the data from the T100 info to get LF.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:24 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
dlflynhayn wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Flight numbers were down more then seat numbers at slc q3 19. Delta upsized alot of planes in that time period too. But I agree it's inflated a little but I think still would be the biggest increase. It's true number as you said is probably closer to denver. AA is flying 321s slc-lax instead of their usual cr7s because of surging traffic , southwest keeps adding flights and filling them too. Carriers not delta keep adding seats and seeing surging traffic right now


Well looking at todays schedule Delta has 7 flights on LAX-SLC 4x 321, 3x 739 vs AA 2 flights BTW there on a CR7 at least for today lol.WN has one flight nonstop i don't think Delta is worried or should be :roll:


Ah wow. Jumping too fast to defend delta and not even reading again?? :white: J/K

No one claimed delta was being taken over or anything even close to that. Nothing at all to do with delta. For AA increasing from CR7s to 321 is a huge jump. They did this because they can't keep up with demand. AA has had a summer of just all full flights and no seats to sell. WN also added quite a few flights late because they were basically running out of seats. I was just showing the leisure travel demand is soaring this summer again at these destinations den, slc, mia, and phx. It goes along with national parks out west being packed outdoor lesiure demand is sky high still


Plus SLC-LAX is basically an O&D for AA (not much connectivity at LAX) while it feeds a whole SLC hub for DL. Of course, DL us going to have way more capacity.
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:42 am

dfwfanboy wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Business travel airports continue to suffer. Leisure destinations surge

change in seats in Q3 2021 versus Q3 2019

Salt Lake City: +6.9%
Denver: +1.6%
Phoenix: +0.9%
Miami: +0.3%

Orlando: -2.9%
Houston Intercontinental: -3.8%
Dallas Fort Worth: -4.1%
Fort Lauderdale: -4.8%
Charlotte: -6.2%
Las Vegas: -6.6%
Seattle: -14.1%
Atlanta: -16.3%
Chicago O’Hare: -18.8%
Baltimore: -20.8%
Washington Dulles: -21.3%
Newark: -22.8%
Minneapolis: -24.5%
Detroit: -24.8%
San Diego: -25.9%
Los Angeles: -28.8%
Philadelphia: -29.3%
New York JFK: -32.7%
Boston: -34.9%
New York La Guardia: -45.6%
San Francisco: -46.6%

Is this just July? Q3 2021 isn’t over for another two months.


I was thinking the SAME THING - smh.

____

Also, SFO and NYC closed down (for obvious reasons) and International travel is greatly down, with the exception of MIA...which has a great impact on International gateways like JFK, ORD. Also connecting International travel...
BA IB ET JM EA GK PA VS AA SN HP CO WN NW DL UA AC US LH LX OS JL QF QR WY MH CX U2 EK 9W UK TP VY VN LO OK OZ UL SQ LA KL

707 727 L10 732-NG 741 742 743 744 752 753 762 763 772 773 787 DC8 DC9 DC10 M80 M11 100 AB3 310 318 319 320 321 330s 340s 350 380
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 6:32 pm

If SLC keep growing at 5% in the future, the new terminal complex will be overcapacity (38m) in around 2030.
So it has to start thinking how the terminal could further expand now
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:27 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Salt Lake City and Denver were the least down airports during the peak of the pandemic also. Their surge is both population increases and outdoor tourism. Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual. Laguardia the business airport still down 45%!!!!


Fallacy - it has little to do with population increases and outdoor tourism. Both SLC & DEN have benefited greatly from network shifts -- specifically a reduction in 3+ hour flights from the core hubs. For example, SLC has seen an increase in capacity to markets like SNA and SJC, whereas ATL, DTW & MSP have seen steep losses. Eventually, the capacity will return to ATL, DTW & MSP... likely shifted away from SLC.

Per today's Journal, DL claims it will update its fall schedules to reflect a larger amount of capacity into business markets, that's been shifted from the leisure markets that grew during the pandemic. So, change is coming...
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:02 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual.


DL disagrees with you. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... ces-reopen

Bastian stated: “Also in that survey, 93% of our [corporate] customers said they’re going to increase travel in Q3 over Q2 – and many of those by meaningful amounts. So I think the surge is coming, and just as we’ve seen it on the consumer side, we’re getting ready for it on the business side. Once you open businesses, offices, and you get international markets opened, I think it’s going to be a very good run over the next 12 to 24 months.” https://simpleflying.com/delta-optimist ... ss-travel/ (sorry, its Simple Flying, but they have quotes).

Sure, back to 2019 levels may take some time, but to broadly assert business routes "are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow" is false.
 
Pi7472000
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:59 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual.


DL disagrees with you. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... ces-reopen

Bastian stated: “Also in that survey, 93% of our [corporate] customers said they’re going to increase travel in Q3 over Q2 – and many of those by meaningful amounts. So I think the surge is coming, and just as we’ve seen it on the consumer side, we’re getting ready for it on the business side. Once you open businesses, offices, and you get international markets opened, I think it’s going to be a very good run over the next 12 to 24 months.” https://simpleflying.com/delta-optimist ... ss-travel/ (sorry, its Simple Flying, but they have quotes).

Sure, back to 2019 levels may take some time, but to broadly assert business routes "are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow" is false.



The Delta variant will change that. Many corporations are extending work from home now much longer due to the variant. The Delta variant will have an impact on business travel going into 2022.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:03 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Seems pretty clear business routes are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow and gradual.


DL disagrees with you. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... ces-reopen

Bastian stated: “Also in that survey, 93% of our [corporate] customers said they’re going to increase travel in Q3 over Q2 – and many of those by meaningful amounts. So I think the surge is coming, and just as we’ve seen it on the consumer side, we’re getting ready for it on the business side. Once you open businesses, offices, and you get international markets opened, I think it’s going to be a very good run over the next 12 to 24 months.” https://simpleflying.com/delta-optimist ... ss-travel/ (sorry, its Simple Flying, but they have quotes).

Sure, back to 2019 levels may take some time, but to broadly assert business routes "are not coming back anytime soon and the recovery will be very slow" is false.



The Delta variant will change that. Many corporations are extending work from home now much longer due to the variant. The Delta variant will have an impact on business travel going into 2022.


Except see the post above mine regarding an article TODAY that DL is planning to increase business routes. There is no doubt business travel will remain below 2019, but its not true to say its not coming back anytime soon.
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:23 pm

It is interesting that the 10 airports that are up or down less than 10% include four AA hubs. I don't know if that is good (hubs where demand is) or bad (alot more competition).
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Thu Aug 05, 2021 1:37 am

Please discuss on topic (airport traffic growth/reduction). If you want to add your favorite airport, feel free.

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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:24 am

You have to understand delta has to say business travel is coming back. They are talking to wall street and trying to protect the stock price. Many companies are extending covid travel bans as we speak. The delta variant is changing that and CEOs are seeing too much savings. Business travel is going to be slow to come back and the airlines know this. Of course it has to increase as this stretches, but its not gonna be back in large numbers. They have to speak optimistic that is the CEOs job and they of course hope for the absolute best case scenario. Delta variant is pushing those travel bans back further especially non essential travel which is the large numbers
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:04 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
You have to understand delta has to say business travel is coming back. They are talking to wall street and trying to protect the stock price. Many companies are extending covid travel bans as we speak. The delta variant is changing that and CEOs are seeing too much savings. Business travel is going to be slow to come back and the airlines know this. Of course it has to increase as this stretches, but its not gonna be back in large numbers. They have to speak optimistic that is the CEOs job and they of course hope for the absolute best case scenario. Delta variant is pushing those travel bans back further especially non essential travel which is the large numbers


You have to understand that’s not how it works. DL can’t just be optimistic and lie to appease shareholders, thats illegal. Furthermore, the banks, ratings agencies, and other financial institutions are far more sophisticated in understanding what is happening.

Even putting aside that false allegation that DL is lying, the facts disprove your statement. In June alone DL saw a jump from 20 to 40% business travel demand of 2019 levels. They’re anticipating, even with Delta variant, 60% by September. They have the numbers and are communicating to their stakeholders as appropriate. They know far more what the impact is than you.
 
travelin man
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:06 am

The obvious other factor is that airports with significant European and Asian flights have suffered the most — LAX, JFK, SFO, EWR, etc.

I’d expect as Europe and Asia reopen (and when the US finally allows vaccinated/tested foreigners in from those areas, especially Europe) those airports’ numbers will get better.
 
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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:50 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
In June alone DL saw a jump from 20 to 40% business travel demand of 2019 levels. They’re anticipating, even with Delta variant, 60% by September. They have the numbers and are communicating to their stakeholders as appropriate.

Those are reasonable numbers. Companies are definitely flying people more, I could believe 60%. That is reasonable, it isn't as if they said 105% without any proof of growth.

When school starts, liesure travel will decline, so there will be a redistribution of aircraft.

There is definitely a preference for P2P during coronavirus. I would expect the 4 growing cities to do more hubbing. While their relative position will slip, they might still be in growth. Naturally, this is just me speculating.

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Re: Q3 2021 vs Q3 2019 top 25 airports | four actually up in seats slc, den, mia, phx

Thu Aug 05, 2021 6:59 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
You have to understand delta has to say business travel is coming back. They are talking to wall street and trying to protect the stock price. Many companies are extending covid travel bans as we speak. The delta variant is changing that and CEOs are seeing too much savings. Business travel is going to be slow to come back and the airlines know this. Of course it has to increase as this stretches, but its not gonna be back in large numbers. They have to speak optimistic that is the CEOs job and they of course hope for the absolute best case scenario. Delta variant is pushing those travel bans back further especially non essential travel which is the large numbers


It isn't what DL's telling Wall Street -- it's what DL's doing. In yesterday's Journal, DL was clear that it was finalizing plans to shift capacity from leisure to business markets post-Labor Day. In an article last week, DL indicated that despite the uptick in COVID infections, its corporate bookings continued to grow. They claimed that they were actively surveying customers and were lead to believe that corporate bookings would continue to increase; they concluded the core DL passenger is likely to be vaccinated. And FYI - Wall Street is definitely not as bullish as DL is. Despite positive industry news -- better than expected earnings reports, large aircraft orders, etc. -- airlines stocks have barely moved, although analysts have been gradually shifting their position from sell to hold. I tend to exercise the same caution.

But ultimately, it's inevitable that business traffic will largely return and unless the legacies want to inject a large level of new capacity into the domestic system, it will be shifted from somewhere. So alas, comparing status quo to the pre-COVID era is still largely meaningless, as these traffic flow patterns aren't permanent.

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