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Midwestindy
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Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:56 pm

Unless I am missing something, in addition to what was already cut, these cuts came in last night:

This coupled with previous cuts, leaves RDU pretty open...I think AA will take AAdvantage.

BDL/BNA/BWI/CVG/IND-RDU
BWI/CLT/RDU/PHL-CVG
 
joeblow10
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:59 pm

Eh - still wouldn’t read too much into the tea leaves. What little business travel came back has quickly died off again with the Delta wave… and these are almost all business centric routes
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:03 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Eh - still wouldn’t read too much into the tea leaves. What little business travel came back has quickly died off again with the Delta wave… and these are almost all business centric routes


Then keep rolling the cuts back? Like they are doing with every other route.....

No reason to completely take them off the schedule all the way through next summer, unless you truly have no interest in flying them.

Also business travel hasn't retreated at all due to the increase from Delta:

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... st-8-2021/
 
Blerg
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:13 pm

If DL (and others) are cutting flights in certain areas, anyone know what happens with crew and other employees? Will they plan cuts if the situation stays like this?
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:25 pm

Blerg wrote:
If DL (and others) are cutting flights in certain areas, anyone know what happens with crew and other employees? Will they plan cuts if the situation stays like this?


They have far fewer crew members than pre-COVID due to all the generous early outs they gave. That's why they simply cannot operate the same number of block hours as they did pre-COVID for a few years while they hire/train new pilots and FAs to replace all the ones that left or will retire. Keep in mind that pilot hiring is limited by the # of simulators available.

AA is going through a similar issue where the number of pilot hirings probably just cover the retirement numbers over the next 5 years.
 
TW870
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:27 pm

Blerg wrote:
If DL (and others) are cutting flights in certain areas, anyone know what happens with crew and other employees? Will they plan cuts if the situation stays like this?


This small of a cut will not impact flight crew. Most of these segments were operated by the regionals. Those carriers will simply eliminate these segments from pilot and flight attendant bid packages. It will cause a slight reduction in average monthly hours for the pilot and flight attendant populations - unless they add new flying elsewhere. But again, it is such a small amount of flying that most crew will likely not notice.

For customer service and ramp, this could cause redundancies. In that case, employees have the right to bid by seniority to go to other stations that have open positions. Not everyone would do that, though, as wages are low in many of these jobs - especially for junior employees - and folks may not have the money to move themselves and their families to Atlanta or some other city where a position is open. Also, remember that both outsourced and insourced ground crew are non-union at Delta. That means they are "at-will" employees, and that Delta or its contractors can hire, fire, or displace anyone for any reason at any time. At other carriers like UA and WN, union contracts lock in a seniority-based bidding system for redundancies, protecting employees in situations like this. There is no reason to believe that Delta is going to do something like that, but the non-union shop does allow the company to do as it chooses.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:29 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Eh - still wouldn’t read too much into the tea leaves. What little business travel came back has quickly died off again with the Delta wave… and these are almost all business centric routes


Then keep rolling the cuts back? Like they are doing with every other route.....

No reason to completely take them off the schedule all the way through next summer, unless you truly have no interest in flying them.

Also business travel hasn't retreated at all due to the increase from Delta:

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... st-8-2021/


They rolled their “flyable” schedule through end of schedule; previously, they were rolling a largely 2019 and making modifications. The pre-COVID flying that hasn’t come back — e.g. DTW-SJC/SNA and extra frequencies to those markets from MSP and ATL - vanished from the schedule. If we have the Hot A.Net Summer so many users are drooling about next summer, I imagine many of these flights will return.

Also… you’re drawing a logical fallacy. WN recently said that COVID is now impacting their bookings, and while a.net wants to deny this, I’m certain if it’s true of WN, it’s true of the other legacies.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:42 pm

We are in crazy times. Normally i would read the zeroed out as a bad sign. We are in crazy times though and business travel is not really filling planes and those seem like business routes. They could plan to add it back, but just dont want to sell tickets as they dont know when there will be enough business travel to cover. Those are gonna be business heavy routes and only those flyers are gonna pay enough to make delta want to be on those routes. Could just be they dont know when and those will be the most business dependent and really the last to come back. We are gonna see lots of non usual things and schedules keep seeing major adjustments. We will see lots of Fall and winter adjustments coming im sure, the airlines are just trying to figure out what people want to fly and are watching booking trends and changes closely. Lots of changes will be coming we are not even close to being back to normal for demand
 
codc10
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:48 pm

How many of these markets were Connection? Regionals are having trouble staffing now that mainlines are hiring again.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:06 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Eh - still wouldn’t read too much into the tea leaves. What little business travel came back has quickly died off again with the Delta wave… and these are almost all business centric routes


Then keep rolling the cuts back? Like they are doing with every other route.....

No reason to completely take them off the schedule all the way through next summer, unless you truly have no interest in flying them.

Also business travel hasn't retreated at all due to the increase from Delta:

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... st-8-2021/


They rolled their “flyable” schedule through end of schedule; previously, they were rolling a largely 2019 and making modifications. The pre-COVID flying that hasn’t come back — e.g. DTW-SJC/SNA and extra frequencies to those markets from MSP and ATL - vanished from the schedule. If we have the Hot A.Net Summer so many users are drooling about next summer, I imagine many of these flights will return.

Also… you’re drawing a logical fallacy. WN recently said that COVID is now impacting their bookings, and while a.net wants to deny this, I’m certain if it’s true of WN, it’s true of the other legacies.


He also said business travel not all travel. It could be true business isn’t softening but leisure is.
 
Pi7472000
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:07 pm

We are seeing a decrease in demand for business travel. This is not surprising with the Delta variant. Business is continuing work from home well into 2022 now. Delta is making smart business choices for the fall and upcoming winter.
 
Shields
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:09 pm

Something goofy is going on with the schedule post-January 5, 2022. Google Flights is showing no Delta nonstops from RDU/CVG to LGA. That seems implausible.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:10 pm

Shields wrote:
Something goofy is going on with the schedule post-January 5, 2022. Google Flights is showing no Delta nonstops from RDU/CVG to LGA. That seems implausible.

The Google flight schedule is messed up all around for Delta. You have to look on Delta.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
Blerg wrote:
If DL (and others) are cutting flights in certain areas, anyone know what happens with crew and other employees? Will they plan cuts if the situation stays like this?


They have far fewer crew members than pre-COVID due to all the generous early outs they gave. That's why they simply cannot operate the same number of block hours as they did pre-COVID for a few years while they hire/train new pilots and FAs to replace all the ones that left or will retire. Keep in mind that pilot hiring is limited by the # of simulators available.


Adding to tphuang's remarks, DL spent more than $3 Billion to get about 18,000 voluntary separations - but it really wound up being very few pilots. Displacement bids, however, pushed a lot of pilots onto new types and created quite a training backlog.

DL pilots 12/31/2019: 13,082

DL pilots 12/31/2020: 12,940

Data from respective annual reports.

As for current Available Seat Miles capacity given those separations and fleet retirements -- I haven't seen an assessment as % of 2019 levels.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:19 pm

Again, DL merely rolled their “flyable” schedule instead of continually modifying their 2019 schedule. In other words, the 2022 schedule is now the 2021 schedule, instead of 2019. E.g. it features significantly less capacity into NYC, WAS, etc. I highly doubt this will be the schedule DL operates; instead, it will add flights as departure dates loom instead of removing them. DL and UA were singled out in recent articles by the WSJ and NYT for their constant schedule changes, so this will ease some frustrations.

It will have minimal impact in business travel since business travel is largely booked close-on, as opposed to leisure which can often be booked months out.

Again, a.net is going nuts over nothing.

Jshank83 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Then keep rolling the cuts back? Like they are doing with every other route.....

No reason to completely take them off the schedule all the way through next summer, unless you truly have no interest in flying them.

Also business travel hasn't retreated at all due to the increase from Delta:

Image
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/newsr ... st-8-2021/


They rolled their “flyable” schedule through end of schedule; previously, they were rolling a largely 2019 and making modifications. The pre-COVID flying that hasn’t come back — e.g. DTW-SJC/SNA and extra frequencies to those markets from MSP and ATL - vanished from the schedule. If we have the Hot A.Net Summer so many users are drooling about next summer, I imagine many of these flights will return.

Also… you’re drawing a logical fallacy. WN recently said that COVID is now impacting their bookings, and while a.net wants to deny this, I’m certain if it’s true of WN, it’s true of the other legacies.


He also said business travel not all travel. It could be true business isn’t softening but leisure is.


That’s incorrect; WN merely mentioned that they’re seeing a decrease in close-in bookings and increase in cancellations.
 
N292UX
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:39 pm

CVG will remain a big Florida base for DL regardless. CVG-MCO/TPA/FLL/RSW aren't going anywhere, and CVG-DEN/DCA/LAS/DFW seem pretty safe too. I imagine DL adds CVG-MIA at some point since they are planning on building up MIA.

I imagine RDU also keeps its Florida routes regardless. Those routes are almost always DL's best performing p2p routes.

As for both these markets, I imagine AA will definitely build up their presence a bit. They've already added BOS-CVG and a handful of routes out of RDU. To a degree we have sort of seen AA do this in the past with DL at MEM. After DL dehubbed MEM, AA added a bunch of routes out of MEM that DL either cut or downsized on. They also recently added MEM-MCO, and I believe AA will eventually add MEM-AUS/RDU/MSY as well.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:01 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Again, DL merely rolled their “flyable” schedule instead of continually modifying their 2019 schedule. In other words, the 2022 schedule is now the 2021 schedule, instead of 2019. E.g. it features significantly less capacity into NYC, WAS, etc. I highly doubt this will be the schedule DL operates; instead, it will add flights as departure dates loom instead of removing them. DL and UA were singled out in recent articles by the WSJ and NYT for their constant schedule changes, so this will ease some frustrations.

It will have minimal impact in business travel since business travel is largely booked close-on, as opposed to leisure which can often be booked months out.

Again, a.net is going nuts over nothing.

Jshank83 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

They rolled their “flyable” schedule through end of schedule; previously, they were rolling a largely 2019 and making modifications. The pre-COVID flying that hasn’t come back — e.g. DTW-SJC/SNA and extra frequencies to those markets from MSP and ATL - vanished from the schedule. If we have the Hot A.Net Summer so many users are drooling about next summer, I imagine many of these flights will return.

Also… you’re drawing a logical fallacy. WN recently said that COVID is now impacting their bookings, and while a.net wants to deny this, I’m certain if it’s true of WN, it’s true of the other legacies.


He also said business travel not all travel. It could be true business isn’t softening but leisure is.


That’s incorrect; WN merely mentioned that they’re seeing a decrease in close-in bookings and increase in cancellations.


I wasn’t talking about WN, I was talking about the CORPORATE BOOKING numbers US wide published weekly by the ARC which I linked, and there is a separate thread about.

If you look again, corporate has not fallen off at all, it’s leisure bookings that are dropping.
 
seatown1
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Blerg wrote:
If DL (and others) are cutting flights in certain areas, anyone know what happens with crew and other employees? Will they plan cuts if the situation stays like this?


They have far fewer crew members than pre-COVID due to all the generous early outs they gave. That's why they simply cannot operate the same number of block hours as they did pre-COVID for a few years while they hire/train new pilots and FAs to replace all the ones that left or will retire. Keep in mind that pilot hiring is limited by the # of simulators available.


Adding to tphuang's remarks, DL spent more than $3 Billion to get about 18,000 voluntary separations - but it really wound up being very few pilots. Displacement bids, however, pushed a lot of pilots onto new types and created quite a training backlog.

DL pilots 12/31/2019: 13,082

DL pilots 12/31/2020: 12,940

Data from respective annual reports.

As for current Available Seat Miles capacity given those separations and fleet retirements -- I haven't seen an assessment as % of 2019 levels.


About 1500 pilots had already been retired through the early out by the end of 2019. They went from a high of about 14,700 to about 12,600 currently.
 
Alias1024
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:23 pm

seatown1 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

They have far fewer crew members than pre-COVID due to all the generous early outs they gave. That's why they simply cannot operate the same number of block hours as they did pre-COVID for a few years while they hire/train new pilots and FAs to replace all the ones that left or will retire. Keep in mind that pilot hiring is limited by the # of simulators available.


Adding to tphuang's remarks, DL spent more than $3 Billion to get about 18,000 voluntary separations - but it really wound up being very few pilots. Displacement bids, however, pushed a lot of pilots onto new types and created quite a training backlog.

DL pilots 12/31/2019: 13,082

DL pilots 12/31/2020: 12,940

Data from respective annual reports.

As for current Available Seat Miles capacity given those separations and fleet retirements -- I haven't seen an assessment as % of 2019 levels.


About 1500 pilots had already been retired through the early out by the end of 2019. They went from a high of about 14,700 to about 12,600 currently.


This.

There were a little over 1,700 pilots that took the early out. Around 200 had their separation date pushed into 2021 due to staffing and training requirements for their category (fleet, seat, base).
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:45 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
seatown1 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Adding to tphuang's remarks, DL spent more than $3 Billion to get about 18,000 voluntary separations - but it really wound up being very few pilots. Displacement bids, however, pushed a lot of pilots onto new types and created quite a training backlog.

DL pilots 12/31/2019: 13,082

DL pilots 12/31/2020: 12,940

Data from respective annual reports.

As for current Available Seat Miles capacity given those separations and fleet retirements -- I haven't seen an assessment as % of 2019 levels.


About 1500 pilots had already been retired through the early out by the end of 2019. They went from a high of about 14,700 to about 12,600 currently.


This.

There were a little over 1,700 pilots that took the early out. Around 200 had their separation date pushed into 2021 due to staffing and training requirements for their category (fleet, seat, base).


Right, that's what I've heard (about 2000 down). That's a lot of pilots to hire back over the next few years. On top of that, there are the 1700+ displaced that needs to be trained again.

The regional side will be facing similar and possibly worse pilot shortages.

I'm not sure what their retirement numbers will look like in the next few years. But even if they hire 500 this year, another 1000 next year and 1250 a year after that, they won't get back to pre-COVID number of active pilots. That would generally mean fewer block hours and fewer # of flights.

We've already seen this year the affects of airlines trying to schedule more flights than they are capable of flying.
 
onwFan
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Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:59 pm

I guess the future for RDU-CDG doesn’t look so bright.
 
a320flyer
Posts: 100
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 5:28 pm

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:13 pm

They have downguaged a bunch of JFK flying to regional jets (JFK-RDU/BNA/CLT/JAX/CHS). That with other constraints probably meant a chunk of the bottom performing regional routes needed to go (i.e. RJ flying from CVG/RDU).
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:17 pm

Agreed at this point it’s not a big deal since they are at least now finally moving away from the default / placeholder 2019 schedule and doing all these rolling monthly cuts.

After almost 2 years of this it’s about time to sell the baseline schedule and add capacity closer in.

Customer service / call center will appreciate it better now having so many schedule changes to deal from advanced bookings against a fictitious 2019 placeholder schedule.

While the data at a high level shows were business travel is at today, I am sure DL has Better indication from its key accounts in those markets and their current booking pattern and thoughts on 2022 that it makes sense to pull down.

Realistically the earliest that a lot of this p2p non core hub over flying stuff would return now anyways is Summer 2022. 9-10 months from now.
 
nwadeicer
Posts: 339
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:17 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:33 pm

TW870 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
If DL (and others) are cutting flights in certain areas, anyone know what happens with crew and other employees? Will they plan cuts if the situation stays like this?



For customer service and ramp, this could cause redundancies. In that case, employees have the right to bid by seniority to go to other stations that have open positions. Not everyone would do that, though, as wages are low in many of these jobs - especially for junior employees - and folks may not have the money to move themselves and their families to Atlanta or some other city where a position is open. Also, remember that both outsourced and insourced ground crew are non-union at Delta. That means they are "at-will" employees, and that Delta or its contractors can hire, fire, or displace anyone for any reason at any time. At other carriers like UA and WN, union contracts lock in a seniority-based bidding system for redundancies, protecting employees in situations like this. There is no reason to believe that Delta is going to do something like that, but the non-union shop does allow the company to do as it chooses.


Actually, that was true with Northwest Airlines. You could bid whatever your seniority held system wide, this was due to having a contract. With Delta you don't have that luxury, if they displace people at a station then Delta will tell the employee what stations they may transfer to. Case in point, when they shuttered FNT last year they originally were going to place the employees on leave, no options. Apparently the news caught on and Delta then said you can either go to DTW, GRR or take the leave.
 
Blerg
Posts: 5269
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:46 pm

Thank you for all for your replies.

How are Delta's European destinations looking right now? Have they downsized anything over there?
 
onwFan
Posts: 735
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Unless I am missing something, in addition to what was already cut, these cuts came in last night:

This coupled with previous cuts, leaves RDU pretty open...I think AA will take AAdvantage.

BDL/BNA/BWI/CVG/IND-RDU
BWI/CLT/RDU/PHL-CVG

This becomes all the more interesting if you look at it from the opposite angle. If I am not mistaken, this marks the end of all non-hub flying for DL at BWI, IND, BNA, BDL and CLT. Of these, I see CVG-PHL/CLT as being least likely to come back, given they are AA hubs. The only non-hub destination at PHL will be RDU - will be interesting to track that.

I wonder if this might mean that DL will try to backfill capacity to some of these airports from their new 'hubs'. Maybe a BOS-BWI? BOS-BDL will be too short. They recently launched BOS-CLT.
 
TW870
Posts: 1390
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:07 pm

nwadeicer wrote:
TW870 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
If DL (and others) are cutting flights in certain areas, anyone know what happens with crew and other employees? Will they plan cuts if the situation stays like this?



For customer service and ramp, this could cause redundancies. In that case, employees have the right to bid by seniority to go to other stations that have open positions. Not everyone would do that, though, as wages are low in many of these jobs - especially for junior employees - and folks may not have the money to move themselves and their families to Atlanta or some other city where a position is open. Also, remember that both outsourced and insourced ground crew are non-union at Delta. That means they are "at-will" employees, and that Delta or its contractors can hire, fire, or displace anyone for any reason at any time. At other carriers like UA and WN, union contracts lock in a seniority-based bidding system for redundancies, protecting employees in situations like this. There is no reason to believe that Delta is going to do something like that, but the non-union shop does allow the company to do as it chooses.


Actually, that was true with Northwest Airlines. You could bid whatever your seniority held system wide, this was due to having a contract. With Delta you don't have that luxury, if they displace people at a station then Delta will tell the employee what stations they may transfer to. Case in point, when they shuttered FNT last year they originally were going to place the employees on leave, no options. Apparently the news caught on and Delta then said you can either go to DTW, GRR or take the leave.


Thanks for the reply and I stand corrected. But that does not surprise me. In non-union shops there is little consistency in how they deal with downsizing. I was a (unionized) UA flight attendant, and we had very specific seniority-based systemwide bumping in the event of a displacement. But at non-union carriers, they often find it cheaper to just furlough folks to avoid training and displacement churn. That is a very bad set of facts for senior people at small stations.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15498
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:17 pm

onwFan wrote:
If I am not mistaken, this marks the end of all non-hub flying for DL at BWI, IND, BNA, BDL and CLT.


I know this is literally true because SEA is a hub, but given the geography of all of these cities, isn't having SEA more significant than a couple of RJs to RDU?
 
dstblj52
Posts: 750
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:19 pm

those smaller focus cities were in a way born to be the cushion that keeps the core structure intact when times get bad
 
onwFan
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Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:27 pm

N292UX wrote:
CVG will remain a big Florida base for DL regardless. CVG-MCO/TPA/FLL/RSW aren't going anywhere, and CVG-DEN/DCA/LAS/DFW seem pretty safe too. I imagine DL adds CVG-MIA at some point since they are planning on building up MIA.

I imagine RDU also keeps its Florida routes regardless. Those routes are almost always DL's best performing p2p routes.

As for both these markets, I imagine AA will definitely build up their presence a bit. They've already added BOS-CVG and a handful of routes out of RDU. To a degree we have sort of seen AA do this in the past with DL at MEM. After DL dehubbed MEM, AA added a bunch of routes out of MEM that DL either cut or downsized on. They also recently added MEM-MCO, and I believe AA will eventually add MEM-AUS/RDU/MSY as well.

I don’t think AA would be interested in adding routes at CVG or MEM. BOS-CVG was more about BOS and the NE with B6 (AA probably decided to fly the route as B6 does not fly to CVG). Most of the p2p routes AA has (or launches) are centered around connecting their ex-hubs (RDU, BOS, STL/MCI, IND, PIT); some of them even remnants from the hub days and probably sustain because of business contracts. AUS is probably the only exception, but it too has been historically a point of strength for AA. Most of the summer Florida adds were just for the special year that 2020 was, and are probably not coming back.
 
F27500
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Joined: Sun May 07, 2017 12:52 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:41 pm

Could Delta possibly hose or humiliate the city of Cincinnati any more than they already have ?
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3678
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:48 pm

F27500 wrote:
Could Delta possibly hose or humiliate the city of Cincinnati any more than they already have ?


Humiliate? Lol. Cincinnati isn’t that large of a city, if it had sufficient demand and business, maybe DL would have stayed.
 
F27500
Posts: 1058
Joined: Sun May 07, 2017 12:52 am

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:52 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
Could Delta possibly hose or humiliate the city of Cincinnati any more than they already have ?


Humiliate? Lol. Cincinnati isn’t that large of a city, if it had sufficient demand and business, maybe DL would have stayed.


... Then why would they have built that hub there originally ?
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15498
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:56 pm

F27500 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
Could Delta possibly hose or humiliate the city of Cincinnati any more than they already have ?


Humiliate? Lol. Cincinnati isn’t that large of a city, if it had sufficient demand and business, maybe DL would have stayed.


... Then why would they have built that hub there originally ?


Cincinnati is plenty large for a hub built on the backs of EM2s and 732s in a 6/7 legacy environment. Obviously the fleet mix and competitive environment have changed.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3678
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:05 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
F27500 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Humiliate? Lol. Cincinnati isn’t that large of a city, if it had sufficient demand and business, maybe DL would have stayed.


... Then why would they have built that hub there originally ?


Cincinnati is plenty large for a hub built on the backs of EM2s and 732s in a 6/7 legacy environment. Obviously the fleet mix and competitive environment have changed.


Exactly. The economics have changed significantly, not only on aircraft size, but very few mid-size city hubs remain (other examples are MEM, STL, CLE, PIT) since cost pressures are intense now. Airlines continuously lost money, but that isn’t intended to be the standard anymore (these times excepted obviously).
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:12 pm

Number of passengers, number of seats, load factors, and % market share on domestic flights out of CVG in 5/2019, broken down by airline:
AA - 108748 passengers, 136313 seats, 79.78% load factor, 13.83% market share
DL - 343412 passengers, 404636 seats, 84.87% load factor, 43.67% market share
F9 - 87169 passengers, 100538 seats, 86.70% load factor, 11.09% market share
G4 - 99867 passengers, 114378 seats, 87.31% load factor, 12.70% market share
UA - 93174 passengers, 113570 seats, 82.04% load factor, 11.85% market share
WN - 53981 passengers, 74953 seats, 72.02% load factor, 6.86% market share
Total - 786351 passengers, 944388 seats, 83.27% load factor

Number of passengers, number of seats, load factors, and % market share on domestic flights out of CVG in 5/2021 broken down by airline:
AA - 75098 passengers, 88893 seats, 84.48% load factor, 14.14% market share
AS - 3012 passengers, 4272 seats, 70.51% load factor, 5.67% market share
DL - 197048 passengers, 259367 seats, 75.97% load factor, 37.10% market share
F9 - 72981 passengers, 94388 seats, 77.32% load factor, 13.74% market share
G4 - 89268 passengers, 131745 seats, 67.76% load factor, 16.80% market share
SY - 1512 passengers, 2232 seats, 67.74% load factor, 2.85% market share
UA - 42243 passengers, 49407 seats, 85.50% load factor, 7.95% market share
WN - 49925 passengers, 60345 seats, 82.73% load factor, 9.40% market share
Total - 531087 passengers, 690649 seats, 76.90% load factor

DL has lost market share share at CVG since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with DL only having 37.10% market share at CVG in May 2019 compared to the 43.67% market share that DL had at CVG in May 2021.

UA has lost market share at CVG, but UA had dropped CVG-SFO nonstop service in January 2020.

AA, F9, G4, and WN have more market share at CVG in May 2021 than they did in May 2019.

AA, UA, and WN also had higher average load factors at CVG in May 2021 than they did in May 2019.

CVG-SEA also now has nonstop service on AS in addition to DL, whereas DL did not have any nonstop competition on the CVG-SEA route prior to AS's entry into CVG. AS also had better load factors on CVG-SEA than DL did on in May 2021, with AS having an average load factor of 70.51% on CVG-SEA in May 2021 compared to the average load factor of 64.22% that DL was getting on CVG-SEA in May 2021.
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:22 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
BDL/BNA/BWI/CVG/IND-RDU
BWI/CLT/RDU/PHL-CVG


I can understand DL dropping BWI-CVG nonstop service with DL serving CVG nonstop from DCA and WN still serving CVG nonstop from BWI.

WN still has nonstop service to both BNA and BWI from RDU, and AA still has nonstop service to its CLT and PHL hubs from CVG.

RDU-CVG/BDL/IND are the only routes listed above that currently don't have any nonstop service, but there are still 1-stop connecting options to BDL from RDU on AA (through PHL/DCA), UA (through IAD), and WN (through BWI).
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:33 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
F27500 wrote:

... Then why would they have built that hub there originally ?


Cincinnati is plenty large for a hub built on the backs of EM2s and 732s in a 6/7 legacy environment. Obviously the fleet mix and competitive environment have changed.


Exactly. The economics have changed significantly, not only on aircraft size, but very few mid-size city hubs remain (other examples are MEM, STL, CLE, PIT) since cost pressures are intense now. Airlines continuously lost money, but that isn’t intended to be the standard anymore (these times excepted obviously).


I’m not so sure that CVG lost money in, say, the mid 90s. Think about how many small but high-yielding city pairs it could connect. Stuff like STL-BUF and BNA-GRR was right in its wheelhouse.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:48 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
Again, DL merely rolled their “flyable” schedule instead of continually modifying their 2019 schedule. In other words, the 2022 schedule is now the 2021 schedule, instead of 2019. E.g. it features significantly less capacity into NYC, WAS, etc. I highly doubt this will be the schedule DL operates; instead, it will add flights as departure dates loom instead of removing them. DL and UA were singled out in recent articles by the WSJ and NYT for their constant schedule changes, so this will ease some frustrations.

It will have minimal impact in business travel since business travel is largely booked close-on, as opposed to leisure which can often be booked months out.

Again, a.net is going nuts over nothing.

Jshank83 wrote:

He also said business travel not all travel. It could be true business isn’t softening but leisure is.


That’s incorrect; WN merely mentioned that they’re seeing a decrease in close-in bookings and increase in cancellations.


I wasn’t talking about WN, I was talking about the CORPORATE BOOKING numbers US wide published weekly by the ARC which I linked, and there is a separate thread about.

If you look again, corporate has not fallen off at all, it’s leisure bookings that are dropping.


Everyone knows lots of corporate cancellations are coming. Many companies are pushing travel bans and many people have just forgotten to cancel or will do close in. My company just sent an email asking people to cancel trips booked as our travel ban was just extended and there's lots on the books people can't do but havent cancelled and they are non essential now. Lots of corporate reservations cancellations will be coming in, people are just lazy when it's not their money or they had conferences and things they wanted to go too so they didn't cancel being optimistic
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:49 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

Cincinnati is plenty large for a hub built on the backs of EM2s and 732s in a 6/7 legacy environment. Obviously the fleet mix and competitive environment have changed.


Exactly. The economics have changed significantly, not only on aircraft size, but very few mid-size city hubs remain (other examples are MEM, STL, CLE, PIT) since cost pressures are intense now. Airlines continuously lost money, but that isn’t intended to be the standard anymore (these times excepted obviously).


I’m not so sure that CVG lost money in, say, the mid 90s. Think about how many small but high-yielding city pairs it could connect. Stuff like STL-BUF and BNA-GRR was right in its wheelhouse.


Yea I didn’t mean to imply it lost money at its peak, but DL certainly wasn’t optimizing it’s network (well, perhaps with its fleet of CRJs at the time). But those costs were significant.
 
seatown1
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:58 pm

Something that is likely coming into play here is the fact that DL currently has 35 76 seat RJs parked at the moment due to a scope dispute with the pilot union. That issue is currently being arbitrated and a decision should come in the next few weeks. However, some of the planes that have been parked have since been moved to CPAs with other airlines by the affected regionals. Even if Delta wins the arbitration, it will be awhile before they can get 35 more in service. To pile on to that, they've further reduced their CRJ-200 fleet by ending their 50 seat CPA with Skywest minus the routes they fly under EAS and I believe some of the pro-rate flying that Skywest was doing. Some of those routes like RDU-BWI/IND were CRJ-200 routes, and some of those cities out of CVG also frequently saw the CRJ-200. With all that RJ capacity lost, and business travel hovering around 50% at the moment, some choices had to be made and many of these routes were low hanging fruit. They're still planning ATL, AUS, BOS, DCA, DEN, DTW, EWR, FLL, JFK, LAS, LAX, LGA, MCO, MSP, RSW, SEA, SLC and TPA out of CVG and ATL, AUS, BOS, DTW, FLL, JFK, LAS, LAX, LGA, MCO, MIA, MSP, PHL, SEA, SLC, and TPA out of RDU this October. CDG is scheduled to return from both. Some of the routes will likely come back pending further recovery in business travel as well as RJ capacity becoming available from upguaging elsewhere in the network and/or a positive arbitration result and subsequent 76 seat RJ deliveries.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:00 pm

seatown1 wrote:
Something that is likely coming into play here is the fact that DL currently has 35 76 seat RJs parked at the moment due to a scope dispute with the pilot union. That issue is currently being arbitrated and a decision should come in the next few weeks. However, some of the planes that have been parked have since been moved to CPAs with other airlines by the affected regionals. Even if Delta wins the arbitration, it will be awhile before they can get 35 more in service. To pile on to that, they've further reduced their CRJ-200 fleet by ending their 50 seat CPA with Skywest minus the routes they fly under EAS and I believe some of the pro-rate flying that Skywest was doing. Some of those routes like RDU-BWI/IND were CRJ-200 routes, and some of those cities out of CVG also frequently saw the CRJ-200. With all that RJ capacity lost, and business travel hovering around 50% at the moment, some choices had to be made and many of these routes were low hanging fruit. They're still planning ATL, AUS, BOS, DCA, DEN, DTW, EWR, FLL, JFK, LAS, LAX, LGA, MCO, MSP, RSW, SEA, SLC and TPA out of CVG and ATL, AUS, BOS, DTW, FLL, JFK, LAS, LAX, LGA, MCO, MIA, MSP, PHL, SEA, SLC, and TPA out of RDU this October. CDG is scheduled to return from both. Some of the routes will likely come back pending further recovery in business travel as well as RJ capacity becoming available from upguaging elsewhere in the network and/or a positive arbitration result and subsequent 76 seat RJ deliveries.


Very great point. Could DL just drop those 76-seaters to 70 seats? Or is that amount at cap, too?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:46 pm

F27500 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
Could Delta possibly hose or humiliate the city of Cincinnati any more than they already have ?

Humiliate? Lol. Cincinnati isn’t that large of a city, if it had sufficient demand and business, maybe DL would have stayed.

... Then why would they have built that hub there originally ?

Simple. Think of the time frame, the type of business, and the aircraft available.

Granted, for all I know, you might be far too young to have experienced (or even much of an idea about) any of this, but basically:

    From the late '40s to the late '70s, the Midwest's economy was booming, most narrowbodies did not have transcon range, milk-runs were more common than not, and the market was still under (far heavier) regulation.

    Then comes Deregulation in 1978, and the onslaught of the '80s: where airlines scrambled to find strategic locations to offer hub-model services, and the era of the medium-sized midwestern hub began. CVG wasn't alone by any stretch: this was the heyday of the MCIs, STLs, CLEs, etc etc of the country. You could bounce 727, MD80, 737classic through those places to just about any point in the country.

    CVG was particularly strategic, because while it was home to several Fortune500 and many Fortune1000 companies, it wasn't nearly as crowded/contested as the likes of ORD, DTW, MSP, etc

Now, 40yrs later, in the era where 737/A32X can cross the Atlantic, there's no logistical need for mid-continent hubs; and with the Lower48's consolidation to three remaining global carriers, plus WN, plus two large coastal carriers (AS and B6), plus the ULCCs; there's no corporate structural need for those hubs either.

CVG is just one of the last survivors in a long list of obsolescence.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:10 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Unless I am missing something, in addition to what was already cut, these cuts came in last night:

This coupled with previous cuts, leaves RDU pretty open...I think AA will take AAdvantage.

BDL/BNA/BWI/CVG/IND-RDU


I'm not sure DL ever restarted any of those since they were cut last year. Besides Florida and other leisure heavy routes, I can't really see airlines flying P2P business routes that can easily be routed through a hub anytime soon.
 
seatown1
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:14 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Very great point. Could DL just drop those 76-seaters to 70 seats? Or is that amount at cap, too?


70 seat RJs are also capped out. The capacity is gone for the time being. With some of the frames now flying for other airlines, it will take time to get that capacity back.
 
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diverdave
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 11:36 pm

Don’t forget, this is Schedule Change Saturday at Delta. Check back tomorrow and things may look different.
 
a320flyer
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 12:49 am

At least for CVG, these are cuts of solely the remaining CRJ-200 routes. Notably, they decided to upgrade CVG-ORD to CR7s, so perhaps if that does well they will consider bring back some of these routes albeit with larger aircraft. DL has done a similar thing at RDU by upgrading RDU-PHL to CR7s while reducing by a daily frequency.

Historically they have struggled to fill the F/C+ cabin on these shorter routes out of CVG and always used CRJ-200s after connections were drawn down. Makes sense to remove any of the CR2 routes until demand is stronger. Definitely plausible given they've kept CVG-AUS/DCA/DFW/EWR/ORD on the schedule, all of which can support larger aircraft.
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 1:12 am

a320flyer wrote:
Makes sense to remove any of the CR2 routes until demand is stronger. Definitely plausible given they've kept CVG-AUS/DCA/DFW/EWR/ORD on the schedule, all of which can support larger aircraft.


I wonder also, if the use of larger aircraft would help when it comes to pilot shortages, with the additional benefit of better capturing the highest yielding (and have these cancelled/potential return routes - against the new realities and current network overall).

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/airlines-race-to-train-pilots-as-travel-demand-roars-back.html
Delta has been more cautious about adding flights this summer. The Atlanta-based carrier had a host of flight cancellations and delays over Thanksgiving and Christmas because of pilot shortages. Because of a number of aircraft retirements, pilot buyouts and other issues, hundreds of Delta pilots have shifted to other aircraft or been promoted, according to the union. The airline will have close to some 700 first-time captains, a promotion that involves extra training.


a320flyer wrote:
At least for CVG, these are cuts of solely the remaining CRJ-200 routes, ...always used CRJ-200s after connections were drawn down. Makes sense to remove any of the CR2 routes until demand is stronger.


Seems like a complete removal of the CRJ200, by 2023.

https://simpleflying.com/50-seater-decline/
"Across the US, all-economy 50-seater regional aircraft are on the way out. None of the major US airlines have orders for all-economy 50-seater aircraft. Of the major three US airlines, United and American have continued to draw down those jets in more premium markets, with plans to keep doing so in the future. Delta, meanwhile, has set an end date for all CRJ200 operations in just over two years".
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 3:28 am

diverdave wrote:
Don’t forget, this is Schedule Change Saturday at Delta. Check back tomorrow and things may look different.


This is the schedule change, it’s rolled out in the early Saturday morning hours (some high school and college students making Taco Bell runs consider it to be Friday night still).
 
DLASFlyer
Posts: 411
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Re: Delta pulling down RDU & CVG?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 3:42 am

a320flyer wrote:
Seems like a complete removal of the CRJ200, by 2023.


This is where semantics matter. I believe Delta is drawing down all its 50 seat flying under Capacity Purchase Agreements. Reality is SkyWest and maybe others are still flying CRJ-200s at risk under the Delta brand (more than half of them are not listed on Delta's fleet disclosure.) I do not see all of this flying going away. There are tons of cities in the Delta network which can't support larger aircraft. We'll see what happens but I do not think it's as simple as saying all the 50 seat flying is gone come 2023.

Perhaps the remaining CRJ-200s will be rebranded in regional colors but still codeshare with Delta.

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