Korean Air has announced the retirement of all the 748 and 380s including the Asiana frames they are acquiring, this phase out will happen over the next 5 years.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... retirement

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

Short-sighted management. COVID still ravaging Korea and Asia with no real relief in sight.

What about freighters?

Actually they plan to retire the A380 fleet within 5 years and the 747-8 within 10 years.

JohanTally wrote:

Korean Air has announced the retirement of all the 748 and 380s including the Asiana frames they are acquiring, this phase out will happen over the next 5 years.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... retirement

Please read the article it states 10 years for the 748.

Though I’m not sure the OZ A380s will fly again under KE if they are to be retired only 2 years later.

Damn. Was hoping we'd see a KE A380 here at SFO sometime in the future. Oh well, maybe we'll get the 748 if we're lucky... Right now we're stuck with an A330 Hope we'll get back the 77w service next summer.

32andBelow wrote:

What about freighters?

The plan is to exit the pax quads. Talking 10 years out who knows what the freight business might look like.

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

They have all the PAX quads sitting on the cargo ramp in Incheon with the paint fading. They are starting to look sad.

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

If - in your opinion - the 380 is uneconomical so is the 747.

sfojvjets wrote:

Damn. Was hoping we'd see a KE A380 here at SFO sometime in the future. Oh well, maybe we'll get the 748 if we're lucky... Right now we're stuck with an A330 Hope we'll get back the 77w service next summer.

SFO had been seeing the sky blue 748 for quite a while precovid. Not sure if it was since KE added the 2nd frequency or if it predated it but I think it was 1x 748 and 1x 789 during the winter and 2x 77W during the summer. Something along those lines.

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

You're surprised that a thrice-warmed-over 1969 design is uneconomical in today's world, while freely admitting that a 2005 design is?

I'm struggling to find the logic behind your statement.

I think you guys are looking at this as a stronger opinion on the A380 and B748 than it may be. They have about 30 B787s and nearly 20 A350s on order (when you include the OS order book). Some of these are due for delivery pretty soon and the remainder due within the 5/10 year period they're talking. Given the current state of long haul demand, they're probably not planning on expanding the fleet and the 50 new deliveries are going to be replacing a bunch of aircraft. One suspects this will also include KE and OS's B777-200ERs, B777-300As, B767-300ERs and possibly even some of their A330-200s and -300s. The calculus is probably that it'll be cheaper and *lower risk* retiring the A380 and B748 along with the aforementioned list than cancelling the new deliveries. The lower risk is quite important since keeping the A380 and B748 is taking a big bet on demand returning, and returning relatively quickly.

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

The A380 outsold the pax 748 by about 7:1. There's your answer which one is the uneconomical one.

I think KE is going green in my opinion and KE is about to replace 737NGs with upcoming 737 MAX with A321's currently flew with Asiana. Then the A330's replaced with more 787's and A350's (ex Asiana) and 777's with? Also, KE 737's are showing it's age already.

Strato2 wrote:

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

The A380 outsold the pax 748 by about 7:1. There's your answer which one is the uneconomical one.

Except that.... KE are keeping the 747-8s for 10 years, the A380s are going in 5. LH are getting rid of their A380s, but keeping the 747-8s. That suggests to me that the 747-8 is more flexible than the A380.

vhtje wrote:

Strato2 wrote:

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

The A380 outsold the pax 748 by about 7:1. There's your answer which one is the uneconomical one.

Except that.... KE are keeping the 747-8s for 10 years, the A380s are going in 5. LH are getting rid of their A380s, but keeping the 747-8s. That suggests to me that the 747-8 is more flexible than the A380.

It’s more of a reflection of the fact that the 748i has commonality with the paid off and cheap 744s at LH and likely profitable 744F and 748Fs at KE.

The raw trip costs of the 748 are also of course lower. Ultimately the plane that most impeded 748i sales wasn’t the A380…it was the 77W.

And somehow, the a.net echo chamber has managed to turn this sad news into yet another A versus B thread, within just a dozen replies.

Hopefully, ALL of the KE/OZ four holers find new lives with pax airlines, so that I can continue to enjoy flying in them.

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

sfojvjets wrote:

Damn. Was hoping we'd see a KE A380 here at SFO sometime in the future. Oh well, maybe we'll get the 748 if we're lucky... Right now we're stuck with an A330 Hope we'll get back the 77w service next summer.

SFO had been seeing the sky blue 748 for quite a while precovid. Not sure if it was since KE added the 2nd frequency or if it predated it but I think it was 1x 748 and 1x 789 during the winter and 2x 77W during the summer. Something along those lines.

I think you're partially right. 2x daily 77w year-round is what I remember as of most recently pre-covid... I am almost completely sure SFO did not receive the 789 pre-Covid but the 748 we got temporarily, I think... I don't remember it coming in winter 2019/2020 though so we somehow lost 748 service, it seems.

Hopefully the OZ/KE consolidation leads to increased gauge/seat count at SFO. Seeing 748 again or perhaps even 380 for once would be nice. Though unlikely, I suppose, especially the latter.

vhtje wrote:

Except that.... KE are keeping the 747-8s for 10 years, the A380s are going in 5. LH are getting rid of their A380s, but keeping the 747-8s. That suggests to me that the 747-8 is more flexible than the A380.

KE's A380s are between 8 and 10 years old, and the B748s are between 4 and 6 years. They're be retired at similar ages, probably before a D-check. Therein lies the answer to the timing.

Aircraft age is one factor. But also size is another. If you’re shrinking capacity, the A380 is far bigger than the 747-8i.

In Korean Air configuration the A380 is F12C94Y301 for a total of 407. The 747-8i F6C48Y314 for a total of 368.

So the A380 is overall significantly bigger seat capacity, and also has double the number of First and Business class seats of the 747-8i.

You can’t get all bent out of shape about type A against type B without at least doing some basic analysis of their ages, how they are used and how they are configured.

I wonder if the cost of refurbishing the A380s is a factor in them being phased out faster. As far as I know they still have the original premium cabins which are mediocre at best compared to the latest offering and I seem to recall reading that the prohibitive cost of installing fairly customised interiors on A380s has been a factor in its struggles in the second hand market.

In any case, sad to see them go. I had some lovely flights on Asiana A380s and the KE 747-8 was always a beautiful sight.

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

When full, the 748 is actually worse than A380.

Problem is that a380s are harder to fill than 747-8s so they are getting the axe first.



Ref: https://leehamnews.com/2014/02/03/updat ... -involved/

We saw the four-holers were fading from the scene even pre-covid, now they are fading even faster.

vhtje wrote:

Except that.... KE are keeping the 747-8s for 10 years, the A380s are going in 5. LH are getting rid of their A380s, but keeping the 747-8s. That suggests to me that the 747-8 is more flexible than the A380.

More flexible boils down to less seats to fill in a challenging environment.

We saw the same thing post-9/11 where 742s went to the desert first, and few ever came back.

My comments along these lines were viewed as anti-A380 when in reality they were just pointing out that four holers had a hard time earning their keep.

evanb wrote:

KE's A380s are between 8 and 10 years old, and the B748s are between 4 and 6 years. They're be retired at similar ages, probably before a D-check. Therein lies the answer to the timing.

It makes me think that a 779 order is inevitable if/when we recover from covid.

CBBW wrote:

I wonder if the cost of refurbishing the A380s is a factor in them being phased out faster. As far as I know they still have the original premium cabins which are mediocre at best compared to the latest offering and I seem to recall reading that the prohibitive cost of installing fairly customised interiors on A380s has been a factor in its struggles in the second hand market.

There are a lot of factors working against the A380 as they age, like the highly customized interiors. 748 still has benefits that come from it being a part of 747 family, such as much more competitive MRO support and at least some hope of an after-market. A380 has shown it has no after-market despite Airbus doing its best to seed the market via HiFly. As John Leahy pointed out, A380 never got a leading edge engine and that means it has faded faster than ideal.

AA737-823 wrote:

Hopefully, ALL of the KE/OZ four holers find new lives with pax airlines, so that I can continue to enjoy flying in them.

Maybe the 748i‘s will find a second life and become VVIP-aircraft, after conversion, e.g. in BSL or the other location I just forgot (somewhere in Texas?). History keeps repeating itself, the same happened to several 747SPs.

Long live the 747!

sfojvjets wrote:

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

sfojvjets wrote:

Damn. Was hoping we'd see a KE A380 here at SFO sometime in the future. Oh well, maybe we'll get the 748 if we're lucky... Right now we're stuck with an A330 Hope we'll get back the 77w service next summer.

SFO had been seeing the sky blue 748 for quite a while precovid. Not sure if it was since KE added the 2nd frequency or if it predated it but I think it was 1x 748 and 1x 789 during the winter and 2x 77W during the summer. Something along those lines.

I think you're partially right. 2x daily 77w year-round is what I remember as of most recently pre-covid... I am almost completely sure SFO did not receive the 789 pre-Covid but the 748 we got temporarily, I think... I don't remember it coming in winter 2019/2020 though so we somehow lost 748 service, it seems.

Hopefully the OZ/KE consolidation leads to increased gauge/seat count at SFO. Seeing 748 again or perhaps even 380 for once would be nice. Though unlikely, I suppose, especially the latter.

SFO most defiantly was receiving the 787-9 on occasion prior to Covid. The 748 was also a regular seasonally, as I have flown on it a few time back from ICN. The hard part of remembering exactly what KE was doing is they changed it around a lot more then other operators

AA737-823 wrote:

Hopefully, ALL of the KE/OZ four holers find new lives with pax airlines, so that I can continue to enjoy flying in them.

I hope you like beer, since they're only going to find new lives with Budweiser and Heineken.

LAX772LR wrote:

You're surprised that a thrice-warmed-over 1969 design is uneconomical in today's world

I wonder why A is still flogging a thrice-warmed-over 1970 design then.

Revelation wrote:

It makes me think that a 779 order is inevitable if/when we recover from covid.

Considering that KE is an airline relying heavily on 787 family for their future wide body needs and have a strong 777-300ER, them ordering 777-9 was a matter of when not if. The GE engines will be an added bonus for KE.

According to my calculations for KE to completely replace their 77W, 388 and 748 (that are very premiumly configured) fleet while maintaining a similar number of seats, they'll need around 45-50 777-9. But I personally think they'll only order around 30 of them, reducing the airline's overall capacity of large airplanes. Whatever it is, expect a massive 777X order from Korean in mid-late 2020s.

ScottB wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

You're surprised that a thrice-warmed-over 1969 design is uneconomical in today's world

I wonder why A is still flogging a thrice-warmed-over 1970 design then.

I'm wondering what relevance you find between that and the actual comparison at hand....

Niloko wrote:

Revelation wrote:

It makes me think that a 779 order is inevitable if/when we recover from covid.

Considering that KE is an airline relying heavily on 787 family for their future wide body needs and have a strong 777-300ER, them ordering 777-9 was a matter of when not if. The GE engines will be an added bonus for KE.

According to my calculations for KE to completely replace their 77W, 388 and 748 (that are very premiumly configured) fleet while maintaining a similar number of seats, they'll need around 45-50 777-9. But I personally think they'll only order around 30 of them, reducing the airline's overall capacity of large airplanes. Whatever it is, expect a massive 777X order from Korean in mid-late 2020s.

Yes. I expect KE to order the 777X as well. As much as I would love to see a 350 in Korean livery. I think the 777X makes sense. It will do well for them

Strato2 wrote:

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

The A380 outsold the pax 748 by about 7:1. There's your answer which one is the uneconomical one.

If full yes; problem is the 380's cant be filled.

That chart also shows the difference in cargo capacity in favor of the 748, which can help offset lighter passenger loads.

Opus99 wrote:

Niloko wrote:

Revelation wrote:

It makes me think that a 779 order is inevitable if/when we recover from covid.

Considering that KE is an airline relying heavily on 787 family for their future wide body needs and have a strong 777-300ER, them ordering 777-9 was a matter of when not if. The GE engines will be an added bonus for KE.

According to my calculations for KE to completely replace their 77W, 388 and 748 (that are very premiumly configured) fleet while maintaining a similar number of seats, they'll need around 45-50 777-9. But I personally think they'll only order around 30 of them, reducing the airline's overall capacity of large airplanes. Whatever it is, expect a massive 777X order from Korean in mid-late 2020s.

Yes. I expect KE to order the 777X as well. As much as I would love to see a 350 in Korean livery. I think the 777X makes sense. It will do well for them

I also expect the B777X to be in play for the newly-combined airline, but that potential order will be at least 5 years away. However, I do expect the post-merger KE to order more A350's, which may include 1000's to start replacing the B77W's and 900's to replace their grounded, PW-powered B77E & B773 fleet. They have a bunch of B744BCF's that I expect will have to be replaced, but smaller fleets of B77F's & B748F's that should stick around. That said, they might be a prime target for Airbus' proposed A350F, especially if they can work out a package deal with the expansion of the passenger A350 fleet. As for the A330's which KE and OZ primarily uses for Asian regional routes, I expect these combined fleets to stick around.

KE currently has 8 of 16 B748's in service. However, 7 of the 8 are B748F's and only 1 is a passenger version. It is also interesting to note that KE retired one of them (HL7643 - a passenger config.) back in February. No A380's have been retired (yet), but only one is currently shown in service (with KE) between the 2 airlines. It will be interesting to follow how fast the "new" KE draws these fleets down. I'm wondering if the B748F's will be the ones still operating out to year 10 of their planned retirement schedule?

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Korean-Air-Lines

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Asiana-Airlines

Polot wrote:

vhtje wrote:

Strato2 wrote:

The A380 outsold the pax 748 by about 7:1. There's your answer which one is the uneconomical one.

Except that.... KE are keeping the 747-8s for 10 years, the A380s are going in 5. LH are getting rid of their A380s, but keeping the 747-8s. That suggests to me that the 747-8 is more flexible than the A380.

It’s more of a reflection of the fact that the 748i has commonality with the paid off and cheap 744s at LH and likely profitable 744F and 748Fs at KE.

The raw trip costs of the 748 are also of course lower. Ultimately the plane that most impeded 748i sales wasn’t the A380…it was the 77W.

I think it has a bit less to do with aircraft within the fleet as overall. There will be more 747s flying worldwide and, therefore, better parts and service, than the A380. We are seeing pretty large retirements of A380s so it will be more costly to maintain those fleets.

evanb wrote:

vhtje wrote:

Except that.... KE are keeping the 747-8s for 10 years, the A380s are going in 5. LH are getting rid of their A380s, but keeping the 747-8s. That suggests to me that the 747-8 is more flexible than the A380.

KE's A380s are between 8 and 10 years old, and the B748s are between 4 and 6 years. They're be retired at similar ages, probably before a D-check. Therein lies the answer to the timing.

Actually, the A380s will be retired a few years younger than the 748s, but not too far apart.

FLALEFTY wrote:

KE currently has 8 of 16 B748's in service. However, 7 of the 8 are B748F's and only 1 is a passenger version. It is also interesting to note that KE retired one of them (HL7643 - a passenger config.) back in February. No A380's have been retired (yet), but only one is currently shown in service (with KE) between the 2 airlines. It will be interesting to follow how fast the "new" KE draws these fleets down. I'm wondering if the B748F's will be the ones still operating out to year 10 of their planned retirement schedule?

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Korean-Air-Lines

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Asiana-Airlines

That aircraft isn't really "retired" - its replacing a 744 as the presidential aircraft, the 744 being retired.

jbs2886 wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

KE currently has 8 of 16 B748's in service. However, 7 of the 8 are B748F's and only 1 is a passenger version. It is also interesting to note that KE retired one of them (HL7643 - a passenger config.) back in February. No A380's have been retired (yet), but only one is currently shown in service (with KE) between the 2 airlines. It will be interesting to follow how fast the "new" KE draws these fleets down. I'm wondering if the B748F's will be the ones still operating out to year 10 of their planned retirement schedule?

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Korean-Air-Lines

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Asiana-Airlines

That aircraft isn't really "retired" - its replacing a 744 as the presidential aircraft, the 744 being retired.

The aircraft in question (HL7643) has been retired from KE's fleet. Planes that are retired by one airline commonly move on to other operators.

FLALEFTY wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

That aircraft isn't really "retired" - its replacing a 744 as the presidential aircraft, the 744 being retired.

The aircraft in question (HL7643) has been retired from KE's fleet. Planes that are retired by one airline commonly move on to other operators.

Commonly, yes, although not the case for A380 unless you count the short-lived HiFly experiment largely underwritten by Airbus via a power-by-the-hour contract. Other than that, the rest have gone to long term storage or scrapping. In this context I think it's significant that HL7643 is getting a second life as a VVIP aircraft.

FLALEFTY wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

KE currently has 8 of 16 B748's in service. However, 7 of the 8 are B748F's and only 1 is a passenger version. It is also interesting to note that KE retired one of them (HL7643 - a passenger config.) back in February. No A380's have been retired (yet), but only one is currently shown in service (with KE) between the 2 airlines. It will be interesting to follow how fast the "new" KE draws these fleets down. I'm wondering if the B748F's will be the ones still operating out to year 10 of their planned retirement schedule?

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Korean-Air-Lines

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Asiana-Airlines

That aircraft isn't really "retired" - its replacing a 744 as the presidential aircraft, the 744 being retired.

The aircraft in question (HL7643) has been retired from KE's fleet. Planes that are retired by one airline commonly move on to other operators.

This isn't really accurate - it wasn't retired then found a second life, this was a bidding process and is replacing the 744 owned and operated by KE for the Korean Government. Again, the aircraft will be operated by KE and leased from KE. Sorry, Simple Flying, but: https://simpleflying.com/south-korea-747-8-vip/

jbs2886 wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

That aircraft isn't really "retired" - its replacing a 744 as the presidential aircraft, the 744 being retired.

The aircraft in question (HL7643) has been retired from KE's fleet. Planes that are retired by one airline commonly move on to other operators.

This isn't really accurate - it wasn't retired then found a second life, this was a bidding process and is replacing the 744 owned and operated by KE for the Korean Government. Again, the aircraft will be operated by KE and leased from KE. Sorry, Simple Flying, but: https://simpleflying.com/south-korea-747-8-vip/

I hate to continue this, but I will: The aircraft in question will not be hauling normal, fare-paying passengers for KE anymore.

Revelation wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

That aircraft isn't really "retired" - its replacing a 744 as the presidential aircraft, the 744 being retired.

The aircraft in question (HL7643) has been retired from KE's fleet. Planes that are retired by one airline commonly move on to other operators.

Commonly, yes, although not the case for A380 unless you count the short-lived HiFly experiment largely underwritten by Airbus via a power-by-the-hour contract. Other than that, the rest have gone to long term storage or scrapping. In this context I think it's significant that HL7643 is getting a second life as a VVIP aircraft.

I remember HiFly's attempt to pump a second airline life into one of Dr. Peter's (ex-SQ) A380's. You gotta hand it to HiFly - They gave it their best shot, but charter demand for the beast was too spotty.

I think HL7643's new life as a VVIP is an appropriate fate for this aircraft. Long may it fly...

FLALEFTY wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

The aircraft in question (HL7643) has been retired from KE's fleet. Planes that are retired by one airline commonly move on to other operators.

This isn't really accurate - it wasn't retired then found a second life, this was a bidding process and is replacing the 744 owned and operated by KE for the Korean Government. Again, the aircraft will be operated by KE and leased from KE. Sorry, Simple Flying, but: https://simpleflying.com/south-korea-747-8-vip/

I hate to continue this, but I will: The aircraft in question will not be hauling normal, fare-paying passengers for KE anymore.

obviously, its the presidential aircraft. But you are presenting this as KE retired the aircraft and it found a second life - that isn't accurate. KE bid to replace the 744 it operated as a presidential aircraft with this 748.

ILNFlyer wrote:

Strato2 wrote:

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

The A380 outsold the pax 748 by about 7:1. There's your answer which one is the uneconomical one.

If full yes; problem is the 380's cant be filled.

I flew KE A380s so many times I lost count, and I can guarantee that it was always pretty much full (and very enjoyable aircraft to fly on).
Now, that was Pre-covid time. We will see what post-covid will look like.

LAX772LR wrote:

rj777 wrote:

What the heck? The A380s I get.... but why the 748s? Are they really that uneconomical?

You're surprised that a thrice-warmed-over 1969 design is uneconomical in today's world, while freely admitting that a 2005 design is?

I'm struggling to find the logic behind your statement.

Curious, what do LH have to say about that?

The -8 seems safe (active) and the -400 got reactivated.
The A380 is not active with some uncertain perspective.

N14AZ wrote:

AA737-823 wrote:

Hopefully, ALL of the KE/OZ four holers find new lives with pax airlines, so that I can continue to enjoy flying in them.

Maybe the 748i‘s will find a second life and become VVIP-aircraft, after conversion, e.g. in BSL or the other location I just forgot (somewhere in Texas?). History keeps repeating itself, the same happened to several 747SPs.

There's a BBJ 747-8I sitting in BSL since 2012, eating dust. Was planned to go to the Saudis but the customer died, and not many seem to be rushing to get it, so I kind of doubt many customers will be found for 9 more ex-Korean Air 747-8s turned VIP.

The reason is simple, and it has always been the flaw in the modern VLA argument:

When you can offer more frequency with contemporary smaller aircraft, higher capacity is revenue-negative by comparison.

Without the Asiana competition, KE is more free to offer multiple flights on high demand days and a dingle flight on low demand days while keeping weekly ASM more constant. 10x A350 flights or 7x A380 flights per week? The former offers more flexibility and more cargo capacity. There are higher pilot and purser costs by 40%, but flying the 7x A380 has 40% more engine hours. And higher cost of spare aircraft and IROPs.

Not a surprise, but as an enthusiast it is sad.

It looks like this is related to aircraft depreciation rates.

I'm not sure about 779s or another runway at ICN. I'm a fan of VLAs, but now is the time for airlines to be cautious (more frequency vs. gauge).

Sadly, until effective global vaccines are universally available... we have a ling road ahead.

Lightsaber

Polot wrote:

It’s more of a reflection of the fact that the 748i has commonality with the paid off and cheap 744s at LH and likely profitable 744F and 748Fs at KE.

Commonality with the 744 has nothing to do with it. The factor is far more likely to be the engines of the 748 which are essentially the same as for all GE-powered 787s, which gives you much better economies of scale and lower cost for spare parts. Engine maintenance on the A380 is expensive, same with the A346, because these are niche aircraft with bespoke engines that were produced in small numbers only.

Four engine aircraft in a post-covid world is going to be a hard sell when A350 and 777X are available options, depreciation is what it is.

DUSdude wrote:

Polot wrote:

It’s more of a reflection of the fact that the 748i has commonality with the paid off and cheap 744s at LH and likely profitable 744F and 748Fs at KE.

Commonality with the 744 has nothing to do with it. The factor is far more likely to be the engines of the 748 which are essentially the same as for all GE-powered 787s, which gives you much better economies of scale and lower cost for spare parts. Engine maintenance on the A380 is expensive, same with the A346, because these are niche aircraft with bespoke engines that were produced in small numbers only.

Cockpit commonality (ie same type rating) matters when you can use the exact same pilots for the 744 and 748 (unsure if KE does or if freighter and pax crews are separate).

This is especially important when the A380 and 748i fleets individually are not that large to begin with.