Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12181
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:48 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Polot wrote:
djpearman wrote:
Looks like there may be something to this A330 rumour. Airbus are reported to have filed data for low takeoff weight A330neo variants with EASA and are rumoured to be doing so for the likes of American, Delta and United, according to the German article:

https://www.aero.de/news-40551/Airbus-s ... ta-um.html

Let's see if any other outlets report this, too.

I’d say that is just baseless speculation. I have serious doubts that AA and UA will opt for any A330neo- the former having just eliminated A330s from their fleet, the latter having never operated the A330, and both very large 787 customers. They would just ask Boeing for lower 787 weights.


Just curious, does Boeing offer a lower weight varient on the 787? I thought the 787-10 was their "regional" offering?

Rgds

Yes, Boeing offers MTOW options just like Airbus. Unfortunately the way Boeing and/or the FAA handle the process makes it harder for the general public to determine the different weight variants unlike with Airbus/EASA.

I’d say vast majority of airlines (for both OEMs) take the highest available at time of order though unless highest was offered late in aircraft’s lifespan.
Last edited by Polot on Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8935
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:49 am

I will reiterate it again, DL already has all the capacity it needs on order to replace the B763 with its orders for A339s.
 
LawAndOrder
Posts: 282
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:56 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:04 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I will reiterate it again, DL already has all the capacity it needs on order to replace the B763 with its orders for A339s.


It has enough to replace some. But it won’t replace them all plus grow. It also doesn’t cover the 76D. With the 777 retired that’s 18 down. People are forgetting that airlines grow as well.
 
LifelinerOne
Posts: 1656
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:30 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:11 pm

Polot wrote:
djpearman wrote:
Looks like there may be something to this A330 rumour. Airbus are reported to have filed data for low takeoff weight A330neo variants with EASA and are rumoured to be doing so for the likes of American, Delta and United, according to the German article:

https://www.aero.de/news-40551/Airbus-s ... ta-um.html

Let's see if any other outlets report this, too.

I’d say that is just baseless speculation. I have serious doubts that AA and UA will opt for any A330neo- the former having just eliminated A330s from their fleet, the latter having never operated the A330, and both very large 787 customers. They would just ask Boeing for lower 787 weights.


Cough, cough, UA converting its A350-order into a light A330neo....?

Cheers! :wave:
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1114
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:30 pm

Polot wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Polot wrote:
I’d say that is just baseless speculation. I have serious doubts that AA and UA will opt for any A330neo- the former having just eliminated A330s from their fleet, the latter having never operated the A330, and both very large 787 customers. They would just ask Boeing for lower 787 weights.


Just curious, does Boeing offer a lower weight varient on the 787? I thought the 787-10 was their "regional" offering?

Rgds

Yes, Boeing offers MTOW options just like Airbus. Unfortunately the way Boeing and/or the FAA handle the process makes it harder for the general public to determine the different weight variants unlike with Airbus/EASA.

I’d say vast majority of airlines (for both OEMs) take the highest available at time of order though unless highest was offered late in aircraft’s lifespan.


Next to the MTOW option, does the 787 also come with de-rated engines? The real deal for this MTOW option is that the lower MTOW 330s seem to have also de-rated engines probably reducing maintenance costs. That is probably way more worth than actually the lower fees coming with lower MTOW.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12181
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:43 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Polot wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:

Just curious, does Boeing offer a lower weight varient on the 787? I thought the 787-10 was their "regional" offering?

Rgds

Yes, Boeing offers MTOW options just like Airbus. Unfortunately the way Boeing and/or the FAA handle the process makes it harder for the general public to determine the different weight variants unlike with Airbus/EASA.

I’d say vast majority of airlines (for both OEMs) take the highest available at time of order though unless highest was offered late in aircraft’s lifespan.


Next to the MTOW option, does the 787 also come with de-rated engines? The real deal for this MTOW option is that the lower MTOW 330s seem to have also de-rated engines probably reducing maintenance costs. That is probably way more worth than actually the lower fees coming with lower MTOW.

Of course, the 787 has different engine thrust options like basically every aircraft. You can see all the takeoff thrust options available (at least certified in Europe) here: https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... e%2026.pdf (pg 13-14)

Considering the T7000 is just a bleed air variant of the T1000, the 787 can easily match whatever derate is available on the A330 if desired by customers willing to pay to eat certification costs.
 
User avatar
Heavierthanair
Posts: 991
Joined: Tue Oct 31, 2000 11:20 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:47 pm

G'day

I take it that Airbus sees demand for lower weight A330's, else they would not be spending money on this, even though the expense is/was comparatively small. They certainly had success with the regional reduced weights version of the A350 which may have encouraged them to offer the same for the A330 range. Singapore (SIA) has cancelled the last 14 of the 787-10, the regional Boeing product they had on order, which may well be a sign that the A350 regional is better suited for their needs. Just an assumption, my personal view.

To be correct, SIA "converted" from 787-10 to 777-9's, face saving maybe? :scratchchin:

Cheers

Peter
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12181
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:55 pm

Heavierthanair wrote:
G'day

I take it that Airbus sees demand for lower weight A330's, else they would not be spending money on this, even though the expense is/was comparatively small. They certainly had success with the regional reduced weights version of the A350 which may have encouraged them to offer the same for the A330 range. Singapore (SIA) has cancelled the last 14 of the 787-10, the regional Boeing product they had on order, which may well be a sign that the A350 regional is better suited for their needs. Just an assumption, my personal view.

To be correct, SIA "converted" from 787-10 to 777-9's, face saving maybe? :scratchchin:

Cheers

Peter

It wasn’t face saving or because either 787-10 is a poor fit/A350R is a better fit. It is because SQ frankly doesn’t need any new planes at the moment or near future and converting to 777X was a good way to defer deliveries without having to pay penalties. When all is said and done SQ will still have a similar size or larger 787-10 fleet compared to A350R fleet. 14 was not the entire balance of the order btw, SQ still has 13 787-10s left to be delivered (8 direct, 5 now through leasors).

Between the A350Rs and 787-10 I don’t see SQ as being interested in a A330R.
 
User avatar
frigatebird
Posts: 1865
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:06 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
Polot wrote:
djpearman wrote:
Looks like there may be something to this A330 rumour. Airbus are reported to have filed data for low takeoff weight A330neo variants with EASA and are rumoured to be doing so for the likes of American, Delta and United, according to the German article:

https://www.aero.de/news-40551/Airbus-s ... ta-um.html

Let's see if any other outlets report this, too.

I’d say that is just baseless speculation. I have serious doubts that AA and UA will opt for any A330neo- the former having just eliminated A330s from their fleet, the latter having never operated the A330, and both very large 787 customers. They would just ask Boeing for lower 787 weights.


Cough, cough, UA converting its A350-order into a light A330neo....?

Cheers! :wave:

Don't think so, UA intends the A350 as 77E replacement and they need both range and capacity. The A350 is far better suited in that role. Whether UA will actually take them, yes I think so, but let's don't start repeating this topic in this thread too :sigh:

As for the lower weight variants, I doubt DL is very interested. As others note, DL needs the flexibility to use aircraft from both east cost and west coast hubs.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:10 pm

LawAndOrder wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I will reiterate it again, DL already has all the capacity it needs on order to replace the B763 with its orders for A339s.


It has enough to replace some. But it won’t replace them all plus grow. It also doesn’t cover the 76D. With the 777 retired that’s 18 down. People are forgetting that airlines grow as well.


Sometimes facts help: Assuming DL takes delivery of its 49 A339 and A359 on order, and retires its B763 fleet, as scheduled by year end 2025, DL will have more capacity in its fleet (as measured in physical seats, which isn’t a perfect measurement, but is appropriate since it’s loosely tied to ASM) then it did pre-COVID (equivalent to several 359). People are forgetting that we are in the middle of a global pandemic; the industry’s best forecasts project that we won’t return to 2019 long-haul revenues (not adjusted for inflation) until 2024-2025.

The narrative that DL has insufficient capacity on order to replace the B763 fleet is completely false. In summer 2019, there were multiple widebodies floating on the domestic system as well as several aircraft with extended time spent on the ground (including two A359 parked for almost 24 hours each), so the opportunity to gain additional flying from the existing fleet is there.

If long-haul travel picks up faster than anticipated, DL could place a small top off order for the 339/359 and/or delay the retirement of the 763.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10002
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:35 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
The narrative that DL has insufficient capacity on order to replace the B763 fleet is completely false.


Do you want to measure by seats, or by block hours which drive destination count and frequency? In seats, 4 A330neos (281 seats) will replace 5 767s (226 seats). Enjoy that cut in pilot hours and frequency. That's my narrative. So how is the TATL network going to look with more people pushed to connect in AMS/CDG, and what's that going to do to yields, particularly in NYC where people will still get the variety of UA non-stops?
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:44 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
The narrative that DL has insufficient capacity on order to replace the B763 fleet is completely false.


Do you want to measure by seats, or by block hours which drive destination count and frequency? In seats, 4 A330neos (281 seats) will replace 5 767s (226 seats). Enjoy that cut in pilot hours and frequency. That's my narrative. So how is the TATL network going to look with more people pushed to connect in AMS/CDG, and what's that going to do to yields, particularly in NYC where people will still get the variety of UA non-stops?


Measuring in block hours would equate into a substantial increase in ASM, and that’s not going to happen.

It’s far more probable that we’d see the reduction/elimination of domestic widebody flying (there was a fair amount in 2019), and cancellation of specific routes (IND and even CVG to CDG, etc.) than we would changes in the core DL long-haul network.
 
DartHerald
Posts: 144
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:05 pm

The market may not recover until 2024/5, but will any new aircraft ordered now be delivered much, if at all, before then?
 
ehaase
Posts: 155
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:06 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:11 pm

I could see Delta wanting more 330's (new or used, ceo or neo) if it wants to expedite the retirement of the 764's and more quickly get to its long-haul future of strictly 330/350.
 
Lootess
Posts: 706
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:44 pm

Yeah, people are just speculating on fleet decisions made yesterday. That's the deal here.

There is a lot of sense in not being the one holding the bag with not enough new frames and capacity when things start to pick up. Delta is back to the replace-and-upgauge strategy for domestic, but who is to say they aren't drawing up plans for replacing all Boeing widebodies including the 764, or for frequency growth now that we know global travel isn't doomed from here on out, just a matter of when the uptick happens.
 
User avatar
diverdave
Posts: 728
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:00 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:21 pm

Delta (like AA and UA) is flying a lot more widebodies domestically these days. I am wondering if perhaps they have run the numbers on cost and customer satisfaction, and plan to do this going forward even as international travel recovers....
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12181
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:46 pm

diverdave wrote:
Delta (like AA and UA) is flying a lot more widebodies domestically these days. I am wondering if perhaps they have run the numbers on cost and customer satisfaction, and plan to do this going forward even as international travel recovers....

There is a lot more flying domestically because they have no where else to put them, and are flying them since payroll is heavily supported by Uncle Sam and they need to keep pilots flying and current.

They knew the cost to operate them domestically before covid too. I would not anticipate the heavy domestic widebody use to be permanent as international travel recovers. Most of these flights are unprofitable.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:57 pm

DartHerald wrote:
The market may not recover until 2024/5, but will any new aircraft ordered now be delivered much, if at all, before then?


In an era of uncertainty, it'd be far more sensible to plan to keep the 763 around longer, than to seek out used aircraft, in case things turned around faster than anticipated.

ehaase wrote:
I could see Delta wanting more 330's (new or used, ceo or neo) if it wants to expedite the retirement of the 764's and more quickly get to its long-haul future of strictly 330/350.


The 763 is being phased out primarily because it's becoming uncompetitive in the passenger arena. The 764 doesn't have that problem (yet). Replacing the fleet makes little sense, especially when the balance sheet took a huge hit last year.

diverdave wrote:
Delta (like AA and UA) is flying a lot more widebodies domestically these days. I am wondering if perhaps they have run the numbers on cost and customer satisfaction, and plan to do this going forward even as international travel recovers....


Not at all. These flights exist almost exclusively to keep pilots and aircraft active, given that few long-haul flights are operating status quo. Airlines are fully aware that passengers love widebodies, but it's challenging to turn a profit on them with the premium-heavy configuration, high labor costs and current revenue streams.
 
User avatar
DLHAM
Posts: 655
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:18 pm

DartHerald wrote:
Would an A330-800 at ca. 200T be a viable replacement for the 767-300ER, for transatlantic routes, say?


Its about the capacity of the 767-400, so a upgrade from the 763ER. While the lower MTOW helps with fees the A330-800 (light) still remains a extremely heavy airframe compared to the 767, we are talking about a around 50 percent higher OEW!!! While it may still burn a bit less fuel than the 763ER this is a lot of weight to carry around that is not needed. The bigger A330-900 is just a few tonnes heavier but seats around 50-60 passengers more in 2 classes. But this is way too much capacity for many transatlantic markets, and reducing frequency is no option for most markets I think.
So: the A330-800 light is a possible replacement for the 763ER but not an ideal one. I really hope for a 767X!
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:36 pm

DLHAM wrote:
DartHerald wrote:
Would an A330-800 at ca. 200T be a viable replacement for the 767-300ER, for transatlantic routes, say?


Its about the capacity of the 767-400, so a upgrade from the 763ER. While the lower MTOW helps with fees the A330-800 (light) still remains a extremely heavy airframe compared to the 767, we are talking about a around 50 percent higher OEW!!! While it may still burn a bit less fuel than the 763ER this is a lot of weight to carry around that is not needed. The bigger A330-900 is just a few tonnes heavier but seats around 50-60 passengers more in 2 classes. But this is way too much capacity for many transatlantic markets, and reducing frequency is no option for most markets I think.
So: the A330-800 light is a possible replacement for the 763ER but not an ideal one. I really hope for a 767X!


DL's taken delivery of 9 A339 & A359 since the start of the pandemic; 49 more will join the fleet by 2025. Simultaneously, they have phased out 18 777 and will be phasing out the 763. The best case scenarios are that it will take until 2024-2025 for the industry (as a whole) to return to 2019 levels.

I realize this forum refuses to accept this, but unless DL is about to undergo some unprecedented, massive long-haul expansion during a heavy period of uncertainty, the 763's replacement is very clear at this point.
 
User avatar
fanoftristars
Posts: 1692
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2000 9:03 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:42 pm

DLHAM wrote:
DartHerald wrote:
Would an A330-800 at ca. 200T be a viable replacement for the 767-300ER, for transatlantic routes, say?


Its about the capacity of the 767-400, so a upgrade from the 763ER. While the lower MTOW helps with fees the A330-800 (light) still remains a extremely heavy airframe compared to the 767, we are talking about a around 50 percent higher OEW!!! While it may still burn a bit less fuel than the 763ER this is a lot of weight to carry around that is not needed. The bigger A330-900 is just a few tonnes heavier but seats around 50-60 passengers more in 2 classes. But this is way too much capacity for many transatlantic markets, and reducing frequency is no option for most markets I think.
So: the A330-800 light is a possible replacement for the 763ER but not an ideal one. I really hope for a 767X!


I know other airlines have opted for the 787-8 to replace 767s, and the 787-8s have a bit of an OEW weight problem too... Not sure how a trip cost on say.... JFK-TXL for a 763ER would be compared to a 787-8 on the same route with such a high OEW but lower fuel burn?
 
LawAndOrder
Posts: 282
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:56 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 7:53 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
DartHerald wrote:
Would an A330-800 at ca. 200T be a viable replacement for the 767-300ER, for transatlantic routes, say?


Its about the capacity of the 767-400, so a upgrade from the 763ER. While the lower MTOW helps with fees the A330-800 (light) still remains a extremely heavy airframe compared to the 767, we are talking about a around 50 percent higher OEW!!! While it may still burn a bit less fuel than the 763ER this is a lot of weight to carry around that is not needed. The bigger A330-900 is just a few tonnes heavier but seats around 50-60 passengers more in 2 classes. But this is way too much capacity for many transatlantic markets, and reducing frequency is no option for most markets I think.
So: the A330-800 light is a possible replacement for the 763ER but not an ideal one. I really hope for a 767X!


DL's taken delivery of 9 A339 & A359 since the start of the pandemic; 49 more will join the fleet by 2025. Simultaneously, they have phased out 18 777 and will be phasing out the 763. The best case scenarios are that it will take until 2024-2025 for the industry (as a whole) to return to 2019 levels.

I realize this forum refuses to accept this, but unless DL is about to undergo some unprecedented, massive long-haul expansion during a heavy period of uncertainty, the 763's replacement is very clear at this point.


You make statements like completely false not knowing who people are and what knowledge (generally) they have.

If the 339 were meant to replace the 767s completely why wouldn’t delta just say that when they ordered?

Have you calculated potential new routes. Change in mission profile, change in spare consideration. Overall growth plans? I will continue going with what delta has stated that the 339 are slated to retire some of the 767 frames. ASMs and seat capacity aren’t the only measure or a fleet plan.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3400
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:11 pm

LawAndOrder wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

Its about the capacity of the 767-400, so a upgrade from the 763ER. While the lower MTOW helps with fees the A330-800 (light) still remains a extremely heavy airframe compared to the 767, we are talking about a around 50 percent higher OEW!!! While it may still burn a bit less fuel than the 763ER this is a lot of weight to carry around that is not needed. The bigger A330-900 is just a few tonnes heavier but seats around 50-60 passengers more in 2 classes. But this is way too much capacity for many transatlantic markets, and reducing frequency is no option for most markets I think.
So: the A330-800 light is a possible replacement for the 763ER but not an ideal one. I really hope for a 767X!


DL's taken delivery of 9 A339 & A359 since the start of the pandemic; 49 more will join the fleet by 2025. Simultaneously, they have phased out 18 777 and will be phasing out the 763. The best case scenarios are that it will take until 2024-2025 for the industry (as a whole) to return to 2019 levels.

I realize this forum refuses to accept this, but unless DL is about to undergo some unprecedented, massive long-haul expansion during a heavy period of uncertainty, the 763's replacement is very clear at this point.


You make statements like completely false not knowing who people are and what knowledge (generally) they have.

If the 339 were meant to replace the 767s completely why wouldn’t delta just say that when they ordered?

Have you calculated potential new routes. Change in mission profile, change in spare consideration. Overall growth plans? I will continue going with what delta has stated that the 339 are slated to retire some of the 767 frames. ASMs and seat capacity aren’t the only measure or a fleet plan.


Airlines typically don't replace 1-for-1 or make clear replacements. Indeed, yesterday DL said the A321neos were for continued "fleet renewal" - sounds like they are replacing something, but they aren't naming the aircraft.

While I disagree with WidebodyPTV's vehement position that DL will not order aircraft absent "unprecedented, massive long-haul expansion" he is correct that the amount of capacity DL has now to be delivered through 2025 is really sufficient to retire the 763s (which DL has done with prior A330neo deliveries). But, you and others are also correct that it will be fewer aircraft so DL will need more if it wants to keep similar frequencies, etc. (frankly, I became convinced as someone above noted pilots would look at flying versus seat capacity).

My personal opinion is DL will acquire more widebodies to maintain and have baseline growth, but also for additional strategic growth to capitalize on weaknesses of other (mostly foreign) carriers, especially as we see UA and AA to a lesser extent becoming aggressive, DL will likely respond to maintain competitive positions in big markets like NYC and LAX. In addition, I also see scenarios where DL sells some 763s at a premium for cargo conversion and replaces that capacity with used or incremental new aircraft.

TL;DR it is definitely possible that DL does not need to acquire more widebodies than it currently has on order, but there are very reasonable scenarios where it does.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1730
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 8:45 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
The real deal for this MTOW option is that the lower MTOW 330s seem to have also de-rated engines probably reducing maintenance costs. That is probably way more worth than actually the lower fees coming with lower MTOW.

RR reward de-rate and voluntary power capping, with price realignment better than linear. Usually flexible, with a fee for each change, though that could be negotiated to close to zero for the right order. The technology exists for flight specific ratings within a range. Breach penalties.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:24 pm

LawAndOrder wrote:
You make statements like completely false not knowing who people are and what knowledge (generally) they have.


That's completely incorrect. I have a solid history (many years, several user IDs) of correctly predicting the direction of DL's fleet. I'm definitely not Nostradamus. Instead, I use known facts, carefully evaluate each rumor and use logic to rationalize things. And yes, I've been on here long enough that I generally know who has inside knowledge and who doesn't (and checking a posters' history will usually yield this). The persons who have inside information no longer post here, although they sometimes leak it to other posters.

If the 339 were meant to replace the 767s completely why wouldn’t delta just say that when they ordered?


We'll keep this simple. Several years ago, there were rumblings from credible posters (both here and elsewhere) that the overall maintenance costs of the MD-88 and particularly MD-90 fleets continued to swell. When DL initially ordered the 739, they indicated the planes would be used to retire (among other things) the original NW A320. Suddenly, DL opted to keep these aircraft, as well as several B757 that had been expected to be phased out (later, a few older B757 were kept to replace some A320 that were scrapped largely for parts). Yet DL ordered more B739, and placed several 321CEO orders nearly equal to those of the 739. And then DL issued a RFP for MAX vs. NEO. At this point, I rationalized that DL was planning on replacing the MD-88 and MD-90. Several TechOps employees viciously refuted this, insisting DL was going forward with plans to update the cockpits. But the sheer capacity on order, for delivery in a short time frame, told a different story.

But yet most a.netters stuck to the claim: if the A321CEO were meant to replace the MD-88/90, why didn't Delta just say that when they ordered? Well, given the capacity, they kinda did. Nor has DL ever published a comprehensive fleet plan.

Have you calculated potential new routes. Change in mission profile, change in spare consideration. Overall growth plans? I will continue going with what delta has stated that the 339 are slated to retire some of the 767 frames.


I addressed this in my previous postings. You realize that we're in the middle of a pandemic and it will be several years (2024-2025 by IATA's projection) before we reach 2019 levels? 49 shiny new widebodies will be on property by 2025. That's a lot of new airplanes in a relatively short time period. If market conditions turn around faster than anticipated, DL can hang onto some of its 763 until adequate replacements are on property. But it's beyond foolhardy to expect a major 763 replacement order (it's already taken place).

ASMs and seat capacity aren’t the only measure or a fleet plan.


ASM is the driving measurement. Welcome to reality!!!!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8935
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:57 pm

There are also likely other reasons why they are not explicitly saying what aircraft they could replace.

1. Multiple scenarios based on trajectory of demand and revenue recovery that impact longevity of certain subfleets and frames

2. Not in a position yet to communicate how much is replacement or growth capacity, again based upon unclear forward looking forecasts

3. Not in a position to signal to MRO vendors, parts suppliers, and lessors Their intend to retain or sunset certain fleet types or frame. Retaining a position of negotiating leverage

4. A mix of subset of frames from multiple fleet types that won’t result in any material amount of simplification; at least in the term of these orders
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8935
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:02 pm

Again it’s been said the 763 is flexible and while slated for retirement by end 2025 there is no major constraints from extending that onward. They really don’t have to make that decision until early-2023 where they would have to determine whether to continue to schedule certain maintenance checks on the fleet versus just continue on with sun setting the fleet and “burning green time”.

The 763 is not like the MD88 or MD90 where there is robust support, parts supply chain, and also a robust cargo conversion need.
 
User avatar
DLHAM
Posts: 655
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:30 am

jbs2886 wrote:

Airlines typically don't replace 1-for-1 or make clear replacements. Indeed, yesterday DL said the A321neos were for continued "fleet renewal" - sounds like they are replacing something, but they aren't naming the aircraft.


Sure Airlines dont always replace 1 for 1, in many cases this is not possible like this one. But Delta will need something smaller/lighter than the A339 to keep competitive in Europe. With only A339 as the smallest TATL airplane they will end up what AA is now to Europe. Countless flights to AMS/CDG, flights to some other major airports and a few flights to a few secondary airports in summer. Meanwhile AA, UA and possibly also B6 will grow deep into Europe with their A321XLR fleets. Of course Delta can convert parts of their A321neo orders to the XLR variant, which they will do later on I think. This ends with a pretty huge gap between the XLR and A339, but flying a light MTOW but still very heavy A330neo on lower demand routes makes no sense as well.
 
d8s
Posts: 155
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:45 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:10 pm

T773ER wrote:
Potentially as soon as tomorrow we could see a small order from Delta for some additional A330s. Not sure if these will be new or used just yet.


The rumor was correct, only the airplane type wrong...321's instead of 330's. Three pages of banter either way...

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/ ... gn=article
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3400
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:36 pm

d8s wrote:
T773ER wrote:
Potentially as soon as tomorrow we could see a small order from Delta for some additional A330s. Not sure if these will be new or used just yet.


The rumor was correct, only the airplane type wrong...321's instead of 330's. Three pages of banter either way...

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/ ... gn=article


You are assuming the rumor got the plane wrong, neither you nor anyone has provided evidence that the 330 rumor is not still true. The two are not mutually exclusive.
 
User avatar
atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 4606
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:14 pm

Keep the thread on topic, and quit with the personal attacks. It's not necessary.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
User avatar
DarkSnowyNight
Posts: 2912
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:59 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:19 pm

DLHAM wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Airlines typically don't replace 1-for-1 or make clear replacements. Indeed, yesterday DL said the A321neos were for continued "fleet renewal" - sounds like they are replacing something, but they aren't naming the aircraft.


Sure Airlines dont always replace 1 for 1, in many cases this is not possible like this one. But Delta will need something smaller/lighter than the A339 to keep competitive in Europe.


Why? The rest of your post actually sums up pretty well why DL don't need anything in that space. UA, & B6 making inroads all over with 321LR/XLRs only shows how easily DL would be able to do the same. And barring a purchase of 338s, there really is not something on the market that fills that —relatively small— capacity gap anyway.

Longer range, heavier volume TATL is a very strong suit for the 339.
Shorter range, thinner volume TATL is a very strong suit for the 321LR/XLR.

This is actually a very good fleet combination for someone like DL. I do not hold out a lot of hope that B6 will add 339s anytime soon, but I speak for a lot of people when I say I would not mind them going the same way as well as they expand their own presence.
 
dstblj52
Posts: 733
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:27 pm

DLHAM wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Airlines typically don't replace 1-for-1 or make clear replacements. Indeed, yesterday DL said the A321neos were for continued "fleet renewal" - sounds like they are replacing something, but they aren't naming the aircraft.


Sure Airlines dont always replace 1 for 1, in many cases this is not possible like this one. But Delta will need something smaller/lighter than the A339 to keep competitive in Europe. With only A339 as the smallest TATL airplane they will end up what AA is now to Europe. Countless flights to AMS/CDG, flights to some other major airports and a few flights to a few secondary airports in summer. Meanwhile AA, UA and possibly also B6 will grow deep into Europe with their A321XLR fleets. Of course Delta can convert parts of their A321neo orders to the XLR variant, which they will do later on I think. This ends with a pretty huge gap between the XLR and A339, but flying a light MTOW but still very heavy A330neo on lower demand routes makes no sense as well.

a 339 with premium economy has the same capacity as a 764 without
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1484
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:47 am

dstblj52 wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Airlines typically don't replace 1-for-1 or make clear replacements. Indeed, yesterday DL said the A321neos were for continued "fleet renewal" - sounds like they are replacing something, but they aren't naming the aircraft.

Sure Airlines dont always replace 1 for 1, in many cases this is not possible like this one. But Delta will need something smaller/lighter than the A339 to keep competitive in Europe. With only A339 as the smallest TATL airplane they will end up what AA is now to Europe. Countless flights to AMS/CDG, flights to some other major airports and a few flights to a few secondary airports in summer. Meanwhile AA, UA and possibly also B6 will grow deep into Europe with their A321XLR fleets. Of course Delta can convert parts of their A321neo orders to the XLR variant, which they will do later on I think. This ends with a pretty huge gap between the XLR and A339, but flying a light MTOW but still very heavy A330neo on lower demand routes makes no sense as well.

a 339 with premium economy has the same capacity as a 764 without

That is a good point - DL may take the opportunity to upgrade their service and inflight experience for its customers. Furthermore, some routes may need capacity expansion as DL chases more market share. A larger aircraft might be needed to do that as increasing the number of flights might mean too much expansion.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 667
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:21 pm

flee wrote:
That is a good point - DL may take the opportunity to upgrade their service and inflight experience for its customers. Furthermore, some routes may need capacity expansion as DL chases more market share. A larger aircraft might be needed to do that as increasing the number of flights might mean too much expansion.


This is the primary reason why airlines across the globe continue to pursue larger widebodies: the same number of business class seats now take up a larger amount of space, and in the last decade, they've developed revenue streams from a new premium economy configuration, as well as seating offering additional leg room. What was once a 300 seat aircraft... is now a 250 seater.

And as I've written oodles of times, take a look at where DL flew the 763 in 2018 and 2019: it would be hard to argue that the 763 is the right aircraft for routes like SEA-NRT, MSP-CDG, DTW-FRA, HNL-NRT, etc. (many of the routes have since been upgauged). It's a long time a.net fallacy that the 763 is the "right" aircraft for DL -- remember that DL initially intended for the MD-11, and later 777, to be its primary long-haul aircraft. Many of the 767 were destined for the domestic system, and it was expected that many others would join them once routes developed. But the 767 became DL's primary long-haul workhorse in the mid-2000s, when DL acknowledged that economics had changed to the point that domestic widebodies were no longer financially viable (and thus all the -ER 767 were moved to long-haul, whereas many of the non-ER were quickly retired, with plans to remove the rest as soon as practical). And now they're finally in position to build a fleet that serves their network best.

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Why? The rest of your post actually sums up pretty well why DL don't need anything in that space. UA, & B6 making inroads all over with 321LR/XLRs only shows how easily DL would be able to do the same. And barring a purchase of 338s, there really is not something on the market that fills that —relatively small— capacity gap anyway.

Longer range, heavier volume TATL is a very strong suit for the 339.
Shorter range, thinner volume TATL is a very strong suit for the 321LR/XLR.

This is actually a very good fleet combination for someone like DL. I do not hold out a lot of hope that B6 will add 339s anytime soon, but I speak for a lot of people when I say I would not mind them going the same way as well as they expand their own presence.


DL has previously commented that thy were undecided on the 321LR/XLR, as the economics of narrowbody flying continued to make less sense as labor costs continued to swell. This is consistent with the fact that they've sharply reduced long-haul 757 flying in recent years. A.net really needs to get past the thought process that because AA & UA are doing it, DL needs to do it too. The idea that DL's going to see consumer flight because it doesn't operate BOS-LTN, JFK-HAM, etc. is simply ridiculous.
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 3527
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:31 pm

PreCovid Delta used there 767s on ATL-MCO and other domestic routes at times. Has Delta done the same with their A330s?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8935
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Rumor: Delta 330 order

Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:54 pm

william wrote:
PreCovid Delta used there 767s on ATL-MCO and other domestic routes at times. Has Delta done the same with their A330s?

Pre-COVID, as talking about 2017-2019 timeframe, (after the retirement of the domestic, non-ER 763s) DL generally had very limited domestic widebody usage.
There were a small number of such 763, 764, and A330 more or less during peak summer months as repositioning, tail-routing to bridge tails/crews between hubs, cover some peak domestic trunk routes, and also eek out some additional utilization. It was generally not very prevalant, during peak summer months.

During winter months, particularly during holiday and spring break periods there would be some schedule and unscheduled widebody usage on Florida routes. This was partially because there was more slack in the widebody fleet from international routes that were seasonal. So they had slack in fleets and slack in pilot hours where it made sense to deploy on some hub-Florida flying.

Again, this is more or less a case because they had them available, not necessarily in the sense that in isolation it makes sense to purchase, configure, and deploy internationally configured widebodies on domestic routes.

Right now there is so much domestic widebody flying because there is so many international routes not operating and there is an operational need to keep planes flying and crews active/current.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos