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jfklganyc
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:56 pm

They should get a huge bailout from their government.

Poor people have been in lockdown with zero tourism on and off for 1.5 years with no end in sight
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:16 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

First 5 A380s for SYD-LAX and SYD-SIN-LHR. No routes have been cut but not all are likely to return at the same time, the 3 undelivered 789s will be delivered, you have 789s for, based on previous frequencies
MEL-PER-LHR daily 3 frames
MEL-LAX daily 2
MEL-SFO 4 weekly 1
SYD-SFO daily 2
SYD-DFW daily 2
SYD-SCL daily 1.5
SYD-HND daily 1.5
SYD-JNB daily 1.5

6 744s retired also.
I guess HND could be an A330 given it’s a shorter route, typically good yields in normal times given it was always a 744.Later down the track i would expect MEL-LAX and SYD-DFW to return to A380 with the 789s deployed elsewhere.


Not sure JNB and SCL (or DFW) will relaunch in the first wave, at least if I am reading the press release correctly. For the US, the focus seems to be LAX and SFO and for the rest of the international portfolio, high-vaccination rate countries (Singapore, UK). Japan was mentioned in there as well, though not clear to me just how high the uptake in Japan just yet given all the coverage about high numbers of cases around and during the Olympic Games. Interesting to see the focus on BNE and SFO and how they're being prioritized in the restart of long haul international flying.



JNB/SCL/DFW all are scheduled to start in late 2021, not to say it will happen. SYD-HND shows an A333 4x weekly so obviously things aren’t so good there still.

From Late this year early next they are planning with the 789s
SYD-SIN-LHR daily
SYD-LAX daily
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-JNB daily
SYD-SCL 5 weekly
SYD-YVR 3 weekly
MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-LAX daily (there is a descrepency) +-
MEL-SFO 4 weekly

A few flights operating with later departures ex SYD/MELto LAX/SFO/DFW to allow higher utilisation, as what is listed above would use pretty much all 14 789s, MEL-LAX is different frequency to LAX-MEL so not fully updated yet.


Got it. Thanks. Guessing the JFK extension of the BNE route isn't in the cards just yet.
 
x1234
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:36 pm

Remember QF have experience with ETOPS and has flown AKL-LAX on the A332. BNE-LAX/SFO is not that much longer.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:38 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I believe 350-1000 still remains preferred aircraft for sunrise and sunrise still planning to go ahead


I don't think there has been any change to their decision.

So the A350-1000 is still the selected aircraft for Project Sunrise and they would proceed with the project.

It is valid unless they issue another announcement.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:06 pm

Kiwiandrew wrote:
I'm pleasantly surprised at their odeepptimism. I would've expected maybe 6 A380 to come back at best, with the rest scrapped. Only 2 going to the scrappers suggests they see a strong recovery. Well done ( and I hope they're right )

I'm all for the optimism, and I've had QF on my list of operators who might return A380 to service which now has been announced, but it might not be a sign of seeing a strong recovery. It could be something as simple as the oldest two now fall far enough along the depreciation curve to make scrapping become economically feasible. We'll see if the next announcement is some of the parked 5 will return to service or some will be scrapped. Favoring the return to service is QF needs long range aircraft and may not have any choice but use A380s to keep offering service on some key routes. Unfortunately the choices IMO aren't easy ones to make. Will be interested in hearing if there are any PIPs that can be applied to A330ceo.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:02 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
They should get a huge bailout from their government.

Poor people have been in lockdown with zero tourism on and off for 1.5 years with no end in sight


Why should they? Qantas has plenty of cash on hand and they managed to lower debt during the period, so they're doing fine. They are lucky to be extremely well managed and have been since Alan Joyce was appointed CEO back in 2008.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:56 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I believe 350-1000 still remains preferred aircraft for sunrise and sunrise still planning to go ahead


And please do not forget the importance of Project Sunrise to Qantas' future and even to Australia's survival.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:02 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
Nor will DL be interested in anything outside of SYD.

Based on ____?

Not sure how you're stating that so definitively, when (1) DL just acquired a tranche of additional TPAC-capable widebodies, (2) its Australian partner just lost all of its, and (3) DL will have significantly more gates, at least 4 of them FIS+widebody capable, at LAX by the end of next year.

Who knows what the pace of the Australian recovery will be like, but I'll be more surprised than not, if DL doesn't enter MEL and possibly even BNE at some point relatively soon.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:09 pm

VV wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I believe 350-1000 still remains preferred aircraft for sunrise and sunrise still planning to go ahead


And please do not forget the importance of Project Sunrise to Qantas' future and even to Australia's survival.


Australia's survival ? What are you talking about ?
 
pusserchef
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QANTAS up flying International routes

Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:30 pm

Good Morning All,
The last few days or so I've been observing that QANTAS is flying some long haul routes again to Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Los Angeles (probably others I hadn't noticed). There has also been flights from Sydney to Delhi, London & Istanbul via Darwin, also Cairns to Hong Kong. Aircraft used have been A332s and B789s
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:05 pm

LTEN11 wrote:
VV wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I believe 350-1000 still remains preferred aircraft for sunrise and sunrise still planning to go ahead


And please do not forget the importance of Project Sunrise to Qantas' future and even to Australia's survival.


Australia's survival ? What are you talking about ?


It's deliberate exaggeration as he refuses to believe the reasons why Project Sunrise is such a holy grail to Australians :)
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: QANTAS up flying International routes

Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:17 pm

Would these be cargo flights?

I don't know it they have the same isolationist policy or if they've given up on that.
 
jayunited
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:37 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
flyingisthebest wrote:
Would it be a better idea to replace BNE-ORD with BNE-DFW and get AA to do it? I mean it makes far more sense as DFW is an AA hub and they can send the 787 from there… This is assuming there’s an open bubble.

With the QF A330-200 being proposed for BNE would it be looking at supplemental services by AA using their 787. I mean aren’t they part of a JV?

I suspect QF keeping BNE-SFO is to keep UA from BNE once borders open up again.


As posted by another, BNE would've been way down UA's expansion list. Nor will DL be interested in anything outside of SYD.

QF (with partner AA) basically enjoys a monopoly on the BNE-USA routes since VA/DL exited BNE-LAX, with VA unlikely to return to TransPac for the foreseeable future having just exited administration.


What are people basing this on? No one knows what United wish list looks like, they are keeping that list very close to the vest. The last thing United told employees is we will have a surplus of widebodies for some time moving forward because they don't expect China to recover nearly as quickly as other international markets even in Asia. So all the flying United was doing to China will take years to recover (not my words United told employees this during earning live event in July). With that in mind and United not retiring any widebodies (again United's words not mine) employees were told United is looking where we can send those widebodies that were dedicated to China once international destination begin opening up and easing restrictions. United pre-pandemic did very well in Australia with service to SYD from LAX/SFO/IAH and service to MEL from LAX/SFO. I don't know what destinations United is looking at or what is on the wish list but it wouldn't surprise me if SFO-BNE or perhaps LAX-BNE is on the list and if because of COVID they have move up on the list. I would not be shocked if United were to launch SFO-BNE in November of 2022 on a 789.
 
as739x
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Re: QANTAS up flying International routes

Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:37 pm

These are cargo flights. Airwaysmag.com just recently has an article about QF restarted international service in December
 
LTEN11
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Re: QANTAS up flying International routes

Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:03 am

as739x wrote:
These are cargo flights. Airwaysmag.com just recently has an article about QF restarted international service in December


They aren't all purely cargo flights. There are people still arriving into the country, albeit the numbers on each flight are generally pretty small. QF are running repatriation flights for the government as well, most of these tend to go direct to DRW where there is a quarantine facility. Other arrivals will go into hotel quarantine (still) mainly because the federal government is too inept to build purpose built facilities.

There is/was a QF flight from CPT going direct to BNE with a 787, this is an example of the repat flights.

As for international flights starting in December, AJ is dreaming.
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:59 am

Here is QF’s planned schedule for December, configuration for A332’s for US flights is listed as 26J208Y

Image

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 03873?s=21
 
UAUA
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:47 am

I suppose they will retire two of the oldest A380s right?

Quite odd. Only 2 being retired. Thought Alan Joyce said all 12 will return to service
 
jbs2886
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:57 am

UAUA wrote:
I suppose they will retire two of the oldest A380s right?

Quite odd. Only 2 being retired. Thought Alan Joyce said all 12 will return to service


He did say that, but then circumstances changed.
 
VV
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:37 am

ClassicLover wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
VV wrote:

And please do not forget the importance of Project Sunrise to Qantas' future and even to Australia's survival.


Australia's survival ? What are you talking about ?


It's deliberate exaggeration as he refuses to believe the reasons why Project Sunrise is such a holy grail to Australians :)


Yes, Project Sunrise is essential for millions of Australians.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:59 am

UAUA wrote:
I suppose they will retire two of the oldest A380s right?

Quite odd. Only 2 being retired. Thought Alan Joyce said all 12 will return to service


To be honest theyd always struggled with the last two frames, always changing routes so it's no surprise in the decision to keep ten.

Unlikely to be the two oldest as OQB and OQC (the oldest in terms of flight hours, given the break OQA took) are currently in DRS and AUH receiving some kind of maintenance.
OQD is already refurbed.

So that leaves OQA, OQE, OQF and OQL (the youngest) as possible retirements.

OQA is Nancy Bird Walton of QF32 fame.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:16 am

OQA is surely odds on. Not refurbished and significantly repaired making it less standard.
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:26 pm

moa999 wrote:
UAUA wrote:
I suppose they will retire two of the oldest A380s right?

Quite odd. Only 2 being retired. Thought Alan Joyce said all 12 will return to service

To be honest theyd always struggled with the last two frames, always changing routes so it's no surprise in the decision to keep ten.

Unlikely to be the two oldest as OQB and OQC (the oldest in terms of flight hours, given the break OQA took) are currently in DRS and AUH receiving some kind of maintenance.
OQD is already refurbed.

So that leaves OQA, OQE, OQF and OQL (the youngest) as possible retirements.

OQA is Nancy Bird Walton of QF32 fame.

Thanks for the info. I too find it odd. If you know you're going to target a fleet size of ten, why not just store the extra two surplus frames long term instead of retiring them? Is the cost of storage that high, especially given they're all parked in the desert now anyway? Or do they have loans on them they want to stop paying so they're going to pay them off and take the resulting loss now during the pandemic so life after is easier?

It could very well be the frames to be cut are determined based on financial things like tax, depreciation or loan interest instead of green time till next heavy MX visit, although it does seem QOA has a lot working against it.

Does this suggest that the remaining A380s are more, or less, vulnerable than we earlier thought? It seems QF can't fly the network they want to fly without A380s so they'd seem to be secure, but as mentioned it wasn't too long ago where the plan was for all 12 to be kept. Makes one wonder what the smallest number of A380s to service their network is, knowing replacement is not likely till after recovery is in full swing.
 
pbody
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:32 pm

VV wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:

Australia's survival ? What are you talking about ?


It's deliberate exaggeration as he refuses to believe the reasons why Project Sunrise is such a holy grail to Australians :)


Yes, Project Sunrise is essential for millions of Australians.


How so? And how did those millions of Australians survive with one stop services to London and New York for the last few decades and with absolutely no service for the last 1.5 years?
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 3:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
moa999 wrote:
UAUA wrote:
I suppose they will retire two of the oldest A380s right?

Quite odd. Only 2 being retired. Thought Alan Joyce said all 12 will return to service

To be honest theyd always struggled with the last two frames, always changing routes so it's no surprise in the decision to keep ten.

Unlikely to be the two oldest as OQB and OQC (the oldest in terms of flight hours, given the break OQA took) are currently in DRS and AUH receiving some kind of maintenance.
OQD is already refurbed.

So that leaves OQA, OQE, OQF and OQL (the youngest) as possible retirements.

OQA is Nancy Bird Walton of QF32 fame.

Thanks for the info. I too find it odd. If you know you're going to target a fleet size of ten, why not just store the extra two surplus frames long term instead of retiring them? Is the cost of storage that high, especially given they're all parked in the desert now anyway? Or do they have loans on them they want to stop paying so they're going to pay them off and take the resulting loss now during the pandemic so life after is easier?

It could very well be the frames to be cut are determined based on financial things like tax, depreciation or loan interest instead of green time till next heavy MX visit, although it does seem QOA has a lot working against it.

Does this suggest that the remaining A380s are more, or less, vulnerable than we earlier thought? It seems QF can't fly the network they want to fly without A380s so they'd seem to be secure, but as mentioned it wasn't too long ago where the plan was for all 12 to be kept. Makes one wonder what the smallest number of A380s to service their network is, knowing replacement is not likely till after recovery is in full swing.

To be honest I think the primary reason the ten A380s are stating is because QF does not have enough long haul planes without them, and can’t get/afford enough to replace them sooner. Also why they are looking at getting A332s TPAC from BNE- not enough 787s available and A332 is next most viable option.
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:39 pm

Polot wrote:
To be honest I think the primary reason the ten A380s are stating is because QF does not have enough long haul planes without them, and can’t get/afford enough to replace them sooner. Also why they are looking at getting A332s TPAC from BNE- not enough 787s available and A332 is next most viable option.

All valid points, but still wonder why not keep them the two 'extras' in long term storage instead of 'retiring' them. Seems the cost of doing that would not be too high, and if there is a recovery they may want more planes before they can afford replacements. Must be some interesting models/calculations behind the decisions.
 
smartplane
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:17 pm

Revelation wrote:
Polot wrote:
To be honest I think the primary reason the ten A380s are stating is because QF does not have enough long haul planes without them, and can’t get/afford enough to replace them sooner. Also why they are looking at getting A332s TPAC from BNE- not enough 787s available and A332 is next most viable option.

All valid points, but still wonder why not keep them the two 'extras' in long term storage instead of 'retiring' them. Seems the cost of doing that would not be too high, and if there is a recovery they may want more planes before they can afford replacements. Must be some interesting models/calculations behind the decisions.

The number retained is presumably because they couldn't exit the refurbishment contract without pain, and to make the write-off values palatable, at just 2pa (or every 2nd year).

If retained as spares, can they be written off before that role is completed, unless the company's depreciation policy changes?

There will be a lot of discounted new and used spares on the market for the next decade.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:44 pm

Financially I think all the A380s were written down substantially in 19/20 and QF own them all.

So both front a cashflow and an accounting profit perspective, they are going to be a lot better than a new 787 or 350, as long as you can get the loads.
 
EdmFlyBoi
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:15 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
I'm pleasantly surprised at their optimism. I would've expected maybe 6 A380 to come back at best, with the rest scrapped. Only 2 going to the scrappers suggests they see a strong recovery. Well done ( and I hope they're right )


The issue for Qantas is they don’t really have enough lift to not bring them back unless they order some. I would agree that 10 might be optimistic, but like with BA, they do have a role. There are existing A330 routes that can be flown by LR’s, but they only have 11 787’s, with 3 more coming, to cover the long haul flying without the A380’s coming back. Not everything can be routed via Brisbane to take advantage of the A332’s. And then there is cargo. If they are going to remove A380’s they will need replacement lift at some point (2023).
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:45 am

ZK-NBT wrote:


JNB/SCL/DFW all are scheduled to start in late 2021, not to say it will happen. SYD-HND shows an A333 4x weekly so obviously things aren’t so good there still.

From Late this year early next they are planning with the 789s
SYD-SIN-LHR daily
SYD-LAX daily
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-JNB daily
SYD-SCL 5 weekly
SYD-YVR 3 weekly
MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-LAX daily (there is a descrepency) +-
MEL-SFO 4 weekly

A few flights operating with later departures ex SYD/MELto LAX/SFO/DFW to allow higher utilisation, as what is listed above would use pretty much all 14 789s, MEL-LAX is different frequency to LAX-MEL so not fully updated yet.


That schedule will have to be trimmed somewhat. That’s more than 14 frames of flying.

SYD-SIN-LHR and SYD-LAX are five frames straight up. This will tie up 5 787s for the first half of 2022, before going A380 later in the year. On that basis alone, I think it’s reasonable to assume that a lot of other routes will be initially less-than-daily until the A380s return.

MEL-PER-LHR daily and MEL-LAX/SFO (combined for 7 frequencies) takes four aircraft, assuming an evening departure ex-MEL.

Something like SYD-JNB 4x, SYD-SCL 3x and SYD-SFO daily is 3 frames.

That leaves 2 more. YVR 3-4x will effectively take one while it operates, but is presumably seasonal? This would allow a spare frame outside of peak season, and given that Qantas scheduled the A380s and 787s to 100% utilisation during Dec/Jan prior to Covid, that would make some sense. The other could be used to make MEL-LAX daily.
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:11 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:


JNB/SCL/DFW all are scheduled to start in late 2021, not to say it will happen. SYD-HND shows an A333 4x weekly so obviously things aren’t so good there still.

From Late this year early next they are planning with the 789s
SYD-SIN-LHR daily
SYD-LAX daily
SYD-SFO daily
SYD-JNB daily
SYD-SCL 5 weekly
SYD-YVR 3 weekly
MEL-PER-LHR daily
MEL-LAX daily (there is a descrepency) +-
MEL-SFO 4 weekly

A few flights operating with later departures ex SYD/MELto LAX/SFO/DFW to allow higher utilisation, as what is listed above would use pretty much all 14 789s, MEL-LAX is different frequency to LAX-MEL so not fully updated yet.


That schedule will have to be trimmed somewhat. That’s more than 14 frames of flying.

SYD-SIN-LHR and SYD-LAX are five frames straight up. This will tie up 5 787s for the first half of 2022, before going A380 later in the year. On that basis alone, I think it’s reasonable to assume that a lot of other routes will be initially less-than-daily until the A380s return.

MEL-PER-LHR daily and MEL-LAX/SFO (combined for 7 frequencies) takes four aircraft, assuming an evening departure ex-MEL.

Something like SYD-JNB 4x, SYD-SCL 3x and SYD-SFO daily is 3 frames.

That leaves 2 more. YVR 3-4x will effectively take one while it operates, but is presumably seasonal? This would allow a spare frame outside of peak season, and given that Qantas scheduled the A380s and 787s to 100% utilisation during Dec/Jan prior to Covid, that would make some sense. The other could be used to make MEL-LAX daily.


Yes sorry I thought I updated it somewhere, but i can't see where, looks more like.

qf789 wrote:
Here is QF’s planned schedule for December, configuration for A332’s for US flights is listed as 26J208Y

Image

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 03873?s=21
 
evanb
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Re: QANTAS up flying International routes

Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:10 am

LTEN11 wrote:
There is/was a QF flight from CPT going direct to BNE with a 787, this is an example of the repat flights.


Just an FYI. It wasn't a repatriation flight, but rather a charter carrying the South African and Argentinian rugby teams and support staff to Brisbane. They will quarantine in Brisbane before the remaining games in the annual southern hemisphere rugby championship in Queensland next month. All the remaining games will be played in one space due to the current travel complexities in Australia and New Zealand.
 
5NFGS
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:19 am

LAX772LR wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Nor will DL be interested in anything outside of SYD.

Based on ____?

Not sure how you're stating that so definitively, when (1) DL just acquired a tranche of additional TPAC-capable widebodies, (2) its Australian partner just lost all of its, and (3) DL will have significantly more gates, at least 4 of them FIS+widebody capable, at LAX by the end of next year.

Who knows what the pace of the Australian recovery will be like, but I'll be more surprised than not, if DL doesn't enter MEL and possibly even BNE at some point relatively soon.


Sorry but what does FIS mean?

Thanks in advance!
 
LTEN11
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Re: QANTAS up flying International routes

Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:08 am

evanb wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
There is/was a QF flight from CPT going direct to BNE with a 787, this is an example of the repat flights.


Just an FYI. It wasn't a repatriation flight, but rather a charter carrying the South African and Argentinian rugby teams and support staff to Brisbane. They will quarantine in Brisbane before the remaining games in the annual southern hemisphere rugby championship in Queensland next month. All the remaining games will be played in one space due to the current travel complexities in Australia and New Zealand.


Ok, thanks for the info.
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:19 am

Qantas is set to return the A380 to SYD-LAX from July 2022 and SYD-SIN-LHR from November 2022, though is subject to change

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ember-2021
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:39 pm

5NFGS wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Nor will DL be interested in anything outside of SYD.

Based on ____?

Not sure how you're stating that so definitively, when (1) DL just acquired a tranche of additional TPAC-capable widebodies, (2) its Australian partner just lost all of its, and (3) DL will have significantly more gates, at least 4 of them FIS+widebody capable, at LAX by the end of next year.

Who knows what the pace of the Australian recovery will be like, but I'll be more surprised than not, if DL doesn't enter MEL and possibly even BNE at some point relatively soon.


Sorry but what does FIS mean?

Thanks in advance!


Federal Inspection Service, in effect USCBP
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:55 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
5NFGS wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Based on ____?

Not sure how you're stating that so definitively, when (1) DL just acquired a tranche of additional TPAC-capable widebodies, (2) its Australian partner just lost all of its, and (3) DL will have significantly more gates, at least 4 of them FIS+widebody capable, at LAX by the end of next year.

Who knows what the pace of the Australian recovery will be like, but I'll be more surprised than not, if DL doesn't enter MEL and possibly even BNE at some point relatively soon.


Sorry but what does FIS mean?

Thanks in advance!


Federal Inspection Service, in effect USCBP


Yes, let's explain an acronym with another :) So that would be US Customers and Border Protection, after a quick Google :)
 
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Revelation
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:22 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qantas is set to return the A380 to SYD-LAX from July 2022 and SYD-SIN-LHR from November 2022, though is subject to change

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ember-2021

Thanks for the link!

It led me to https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -july-2022 which gives more details on the A380's return:

• Ten A830s are being returned to service
• Two A380s are being retired "because they will be surplus to requirements."
• All ten will get cabin refurbishment
• Five will be returned in 2022 for the announced routes SYD-LAX and SYD-SIN-LHR
• Five more are planned for return in early 2024 "with timing dependent on how quickly the market recovers."

So it seems they just don't see a scenario where they will need the last two A380s, so it's best to get them off the books ASAP. That's interesting, given they were originally targeting a fleet of twenty. Also only four months ago CEO Joyce was saying all 12 would be back ( https://simpleflying.com/qantas-airbus- ... ctivation/ ) so clearly plans can change fairly rapidly.

Also it seems they have a decision point somewhere in 2023 on the remaining five A380s: does it then make sense to spend the money to train up all the crews needed to bring them back into service? Seems they probably have to (assuming decent market recovery) since they don't have a lot of widebody capacity otherwise, but time will tell.

Seems the cabin refurbishment contract must be ironclad for ten A380s, even though one could imagine they'd prefer to defer if they could. https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/ ... 98.article says SQ spent $61M per aircraft for refurbishment. It doesn't give a price for QF, but it wouldn't surprise me if the cost wasn't similar given they are getting rid of the upstairs Y cabin, growing lounge areas, replacing the J seats, etc. Airbus is the contractor and they don't work cheap, therefore not doing the last two A380s would save a lot of money and deferment would make sense if it was an option.

If we take viewtopic.php?t=1372067#p19771345 from four years ago and redo based on what we know and some guesses:

Frames 1-2 Daily SYD-LAX (Jul 2022)
Frames 3-4-5 Daily SYD-SIN-LHR (Nov 2022)
Frames 6-7 Daily SYD-DFW? (2024?)
Frames 8-9 Daily MEL-LAX? (2024?)
Frame 10 Daily SYD-HKG? and/or slack for maint/upgrades (2024?)
Frame 11 Retired
Frame 12 Retired

Seems reasonable to me, but I'm not a huge follower of QF, so comments/corrections are appreciated.
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas is set to return the A380 to SYD-LAX from July 2022 and SYD-SIN-LHR from November 2022, though is subject to change

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ember-2021

Thanks for the link!

It led me to https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -july-2022 which gives more details on the A380's return:

• Ten A830s are being returned to service
• Two A380s are being retired "because they will be surplus to requirements."
• All ten will get cabin refurbishment
• Five will be returned in 2022 for the announced routes SYD-LAX and SYD-SIN-LHR
• Five more are planned for return in early 2024 "with timing dependent on how quickly the market recovers."

So it seems they just don't see a scenario where they will need the last two A380s, so it's best to get them off the books ASAP. That's interesting, given they were originally targeting a fleet of twenty. Also only four months ago CEO Joyce was saying all 12 would be back ( https://simpleflying.com/qantas-airbus- ... ctivation/ ) so clearly plans can change fairly rapidly.

Also it seems they have a decision point somewhere in 2023 on the remaining five A380s: does it then make sense to spend the money to train up all the crews needed to bring them back into service? Seems they probably have to (assuming decent market recovery) since they don't have a lot of widebody capacity otherwise, but time will tell.

Seems the cabin refurbishment contract must be ironclad for ten A380s, even though one could imagine they'd prefer to defer if they could. https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/ ... 98.article says SQ spent $61M per aircraft for refurbishment. It doesn't give a price for QF, but it wouldn't surprise me if the cost wasn't similar given they are getting rid of the upstairs Y cabin, growing lounge areas, replacing the J seats, etc. Airbus is the contractor and they don't work cheap, therefore not doing the last two A380s would save a lot of money and deferment would make sense if it was an option.

If we take viewtopic.php?t=1372067#p19771345 from four years ago and redo based on what we know and some guesses:

Frames 1-2 Daily SYD-LAX (Jul 2022)
Frames 3-4-5 Daily SYD-SIN-LHR (Nov 2022)
Frames 6-7 Daily SYD-DFW? (2024?)
Frames 8-9 Daily MEL-LAX? (2024?)
Frame 10 Daily SYD-HKG? and/or slack for maint/upgrades (2024?)
Frame 11 Retired
Frame 12 Retired

Seems reasonable to me, but I'm not a huge follower of QF, so comments/corrections are appreciated.


Forget SYD-HKG, A388 only operated that seasonally, would likely go on MEL-SIN. There was some talk prior to COVID that JNB could see the A380 and QF were trying to get the A380 on SYD-HND though that was facing its challenges. MEL-LAX in quiet periods prior to COVID-19 was subbed out for the 789

As for payments on the refurbs it had been widely discussed on the Australia Thread that the deposits on the 8 A380's they didnt take could have been used on the refurbs but there has been nothing official on that.

With the crews they have been on stand down for around 18 months now, some have left and realistically you cant expect some of them to stay on stand down for another 2-3 years
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:37 pm

qf789 wrote:
Here is QF’s planned schedule for December, configuration for A332’s for US flights is listed as 26J208Y

Image

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 03873?s=21


Good list of flights planned. Some are not coming back in the initial phase no BNE to HKG and BNE to NRT. Also LAX JFK is absent. SYD to SCL, SYD to BKK, PVG, MNL, CGK, DPS, KIX and SYD to JNB are not listed.
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:59 pm

5NFGS wrote:
Sorry but what does FIS mean?

Federal Inspection Services.... basically, it just means a gate in the USA that's able to accept international arrivals.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:03 pm

qf789 wrote:
With the crews they have been on stand down for around 18 months now, some have left and realistically you cant expect some of them to stay on stand down for another 2-3 years


Different from U.S. crews, then, who would just bid onto another type and displace pilots with less seniority?
 
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:40 pm

qf789 wrote:
Forget SYD-HKG, A388 only operated that seasonally, would likely go on MEL-SIN. There was some talk prior to COVID that JNB could see the A380 and QF were trying to get the A380 on SYD-HND though that was facing its challenges. MEL-LAX in quiet periods prior to COVID-19 was subbed out for the 789

Thanks for the info! Seems then the plans for frames 1-7 are fairly firm, more so than for 8-10.

The links in my previous post suggested the refurb was originally planned ot be done in 2020, but it seems that is being stretched out, yet it seems they may end up with 10 refubished planes before they really need them.

MIflyer12 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
With the crews they have been on stand down for around 18 months now, some have left and realistically you cant expect some of them to stay on stand down for another 2-3 years

Different from U.S. crews, then, who would just bid onto another type and displace pilots with less seniority?

Again, I'm not following this too closely, but from what I read a few hundred pilots were laid off and more were furloughed a year or so ago, and would suppose that is all seniority driven.

I would suppose these two new tranches of service (Jul 2021 and Nov 2021) would cause a US-style rebid and some furlough recalls, but I'm just guessing. None of the sources I've googled are clear on how this would be done. Maybe it's not yet decided. It's presumably a sensitive topic (we're talking about people's careers) so it'll probably won't be something they want to talk about too much.
 
5NFGS
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:29 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
5NFGS wrote:

Sorry but what does FIS mean?

Thanks in advance!


Federal Inspection Service, in effect USCBP


Yes, let's explain an acronym with another :) So that would be US Customers and Border Protection, after a quick Google :)


Lool thank you!
 
5NFGS
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 7:29 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
5NFGS wrote:
Sorry but what does FIS mean?

Federal Inspection Services.... basically, it just means a gate in the USA that's able to accept international arrivals.


Thank you!
 
redroo
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:55 pm

Personally, I would dump the A380s but that would be costly, they don’t have the money to replace them and there is a niche for them in the network. I’m not a fan of them.

The volume of traffic to LHR and LAX and distance/Timezones means there is a sweet spot of departure and arrival where the A380 is useful. Ive heard this straight from top QF people. They’re overkill everywhere else and the network is better suited to 200 seat planes with lots of range.

I don’t envy Qantas at the moment. Every option before them is “sub optimal” and has compromises. Choose the least bad option.

Glad to see they’re going to push the A332s more. That could become a nice way to LAX from PER, when borders eventually open again :-)
 
melpax
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:35 am

The A380's might also work on the MEL/SYD-HND routes, given that non-stop flights will be sought-after. Depending on what restrictions might be in place, transfers in places such as BKK. MNL & HKG might not be as easy as they once were, and people would be willing to pay a premium for a non-stop.

Also, holiday destinations such as Bali & Thailand might still be off limits or not as accessible for a while yet, so people will be keen to seek new 'safe' destinations in the interim. HKG has also lost it's shine as a holiday destination, going forward most non-business travel will probably be VFR-related.

Though as others have said, it's probably won't be until mid next year that international travel really begins to start up again, all going well....
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:46 am

melpax wrote:
The A380's might also work on the MEL/SYD-HND routes, given that non-stop flights will be sought-after. Depending on what restrictions might be in place, transfers in places such as BKK. MNL & HKG might not be as easy as they once were, and people would be willing to pay a premium for a non-stop.

Also, holiday destinations such as Bali & Thailand might still be off limits or not as accessible for a while yet, so people will be keen to seek new 'safe' destinations in the interim. HKG has also lost it's shine as a holiday destination, going forward most non-business travel will probably be VFR-related.

Though as others have said, it's probably won't be until mid next year that international travel really begins to start up again, all going well....


QF tried to get the A380 into HND and it was denied, not to say things won't change but it seems unlikely given how few A380 operators there will be as things pick up or maybe it will work in their favour being fewer operators? ANA will likely keep their 3 A380s though and wouldn't be to happy if QF could fly it to HND and they couldn't.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:08 am

I gather from a carrier perspective, the A380 seems to me of a cost burden. But from a passenger perspective, they certainly are brilliant.

I flew my first A380 from SIN to SYD last year just as CoVid was becoming a mess. Loved the the experience, even if it was in the old J class, Skybed II. Would certainly be happy to go to the US or Europe on another A380..
 
Pentaprism
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Re: QANTAS up flying International routes

Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:36 pm

LTEN11 wrote:
as739x wrote:

As for international flights starting in December, AJ is dreaming.


Not so much dreaming but trying to exert some Political pressure. He wants Australians to be thinking, talking and campaigning for Domestic and Intl Bordes to open. Announcing an arbitrary date for flights to commence doesn't make it happen but it does draw a line in the sand for negotiations to start from. It's a smart move by AJ.
 
bbowma77
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Re: Qantas FY20/21 Group Results, $2.35 billion loss, 2 A380’s to be retired

Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:59 pm

RE: BNE to SFO using the A330-200, Delta/Tech-Ops tried to make it work on the SEA to HKG route and it didn't work out, I think the BNE to SFO is 4-500 NM farther? Might be a stretch but I can see why they need to try. Blocking a bunch of seats on an A330-200 might still make more sense than a less than half full A380.

RE: A380's stored in the dessert. It's hard to see Australia and a few others (New Zeeland, Singapore, etc) exit strategy from Covid lockdowns leading to a quick turnaround for long-haul air travel to and from those countries. With the rest of the world pursuing a different strategy, when they (Australia) open borders they will need to have very strict testing and quarantine procedures in place due to the low number of infections. If after nearly 2 years of strict lockdowns, borders reopen and there are massive Covid outbreaks while the rest of the world is moving on, the strategy will have been for not. For that reason, I think it will be a long time, if ever, flying those A380 make any sense.

Qantas doesn't have the right lift for post-covid

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