Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2623
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:22 pm

I would surmise that doing the A322 would have a much better ROI. Adding 30 pax and 600 NM range would take a big piece of the market where belly freight is low. Where high amount of freight a A330ceo does fine.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16356
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:24 pm

Polot wrote:
You are proving my point however, that most countries have small tanker fleets which makes investing in a Neo MRTT questionable over just sticking with and continuing the A330ceo based MRTT. Especially since used passenger planes can and have been converted to MRTTs. A Neo MRTT really only makes sense if it nets a huge contract, and the USAF is really the only option for that right now.


The term NEO means new engine option, as I have explained countless times there is ALREADY multiple engines available for the A330 tanker, another one is not insurmountable. The tanker conversion process is a STC, and that STC is applicable to the base TCDS. The A330neo (A330-800/900) is on the same TCDS as the A330-200.

There is absolutely no reason why the tanker conversions cannot be made to the A330neo, and it makes a lot of sense as it provides more fuel to offload.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Two words for you: launch aid


Can you provide facts to backup your statements ?

The A320 and A330 are programs that continue to pay royalties after the initial repayable loan has been fully repaid. That has been well documented in the WTO hearings.

WayexTDI wrote:
From memory, when the A340 line was shut down, only the plumbing was removed from the wing, not the strengthening; if that's correct, it's rather easy to revert those changes for an A330neo MRTT.

Can someone confirm?


None of that is correct. The A330 wing never had A340 plumbing in it, nor did have the outer engine mount, the wings were like 90% similar, not the same. What was common is the provisioning for fuel, hydraulics, and electrics systems to run within the wing, for example the A340 has the ability to jettison fuel, where that was a customer option on the A330. All A330 tankers that are converted have a significant structure installed in the wing where the pod is. What the A340 provided is the modelling for the provision for weight that far out in the wing.

Polot wrote:
The Neo wing is a little bigger than the Ceo due to the different wingtips, but not that dramatic.


The CEO and NEO wing areas have the same area, wing tip devices are not included win wing area. Under the CDL the aircraft can be flown with a wingtip devices removed.
 
Speedy752
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:13 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:31 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
In the current competitive environment the A330NEO will struggle to be cash flow positive. The A330NEO will be a test to determine if Airbus is really a for profit capitalist corporation, or still an EU consortium. For profit companies don't continue to manufacture unprofitable products just to maintain employment levels or to reduce a competitors profits.

There will be no more development of the A330 if Airbus behaves like a rational capitalist corporation.


That's a sentiment that didn't get much in the way of comment, which is unfortunate.

Two words for you: launch aid

What makes an airplane fly? Money. It's even 'better' when that's somebody else's money that has flexible repayment dates and obligations. Don't sell the expected volume - don't pay back all the money! In that environment one gets uneconomic projects because capital discipline isn't required. But you get (hollow) prestige and employment in Hamburg and Toulouse, and politicians look like they're doing something.

It's not 1970. If Airbus had to borrow at market rates and terms - banks want all their money + interest, no matter how many you sell - it might approach commercial segments differently.

One can spent infinite money tending to a sick horse. Or one can shoot it. I know how Blackstone would run Airbus.



I thought you guys are aviation enthusiasts, wanting to see as many types of aircrafts in the air that are engineering marvels? Does it really matter how the launch aid comes? EU has a different culture to the States and most those countries are high taxed nations. If you believe in democracy, well the Europeans will vote for not supporting Airbus if so they wish. And as far as I am aware the WTO, all in all, have sided with Boeing.

Sure the the A330 can be further developed beyond the NEOs. It's a great aircraft for those of us who sit at the back (2-4-2, not considering LCC configuration). But unfortunately the more they develop it, it will be encroaching on the A350.

Maybe Airbus can consider developing A300-900NEO and can the A330-800NEO.


I think we’re getting into a launch aid tangent with these. The A330neo may have been a little late, but it was a logical move for Airbus at the time. I don’t think it used any launch aid and tried to be conservative with changes. IMO framing it as the “cheap wide body” probably did more harm than good but it was supposed to be sold on price and availability, but Boeing ramped up and crashed that party.
 
Niloko
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:43 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:42 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Niloko wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Almost none of what you just said in that (blanket) statement is true when comparing A339 vs 78X; and still some of it isn't when comparing A338 vs 789. See Reply#27.

Why are you comparing 78X that seats more than A350-900 with A339 tho? Am I missing something here

Yes, you are: particularly seeing as A339 has a higher maximum seating certification than the 78X.... alongside the fact that their weights (particularly OEW) are virtually the same.

Primary differences are that 78X offers more cargo volume and higher max payload uplift than A339; whereas A339 can fly its max payload (~46tonnes) nearly 800nm beyond what 78X can do with that weight.



DarkSnowyNight wrote:
The exit limit for the A359 is 440. This is the same as the 787-10. And the A339.

Slight correction: 460 seats on the A339.

Was increased in June 2019, with the modified doors. Cebu Pacific was the first to order.

Well if we're comparing on the basis of absolute maximum these planes can carry then we probably can also say A350-900 and A330-900 are planes of the same category too right? One cannibalising the sales of other even tho these 2 seem to have their own specific role in the market.
 
User avatar
Slug71
Posts: 1530
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:18 am

Personally, I think this is the end of the road for the A330. While it is a great plane and served AB very well, something based around the A350 lineup will probably be more cost effective and practical in the long run. I have doubts around a A330NF, or a MRTT based on the 350F.
At this point, there probably needs to be a A350-700 & -800 (as sub variants). With the -700 being the base, and shorter than the 787-8 even. The -800 being a stretch, and around the same size as the -800 was originally intended to be. A freighter variant and MRTT based on the -700. That would also position the -F in between the A321F and A350F. The -700 through -1000 could all use the Ultrafan too.
 
JohanTally
Posts: 372
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:45 am

Slug71 wrote:
Personally, I think this is the end of the road for the A330. While it is a great plane and served AB very well, something based around the A350 lineup will probably be more cost effective and practical in the long run. I have doubts around a A330NF, or a MRTT based on the 350F.
At this point, there probably needs to be a A350-700 & -800 (as sub variants). With the -700 being the base, and shorter than the 787-8 even. The -800 being a stretch, and around the same size as the -800 was originally intended to be. A freighter variant and MRTT based on the -700. That would also position the -F in between the A321F and A350F. The -700 through -1000 could all use the Ultrafan too.

The 350 is optimized for the 359 and 35K so I don't see Airbus shrinking the aircraft by nearly 35 feet. It's always possible the originally offered 358 gets developed but I would expect it to remain over 200 feet long. Ultrafan engines with the larger diameter fans are more geared towards larger variants with the option for a stretch beyond the 35K.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 14161
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:02 am

Niloko wrote:
Well if we're comparing on the basis of absolute maximum these planes can carry then we probably can also say A350-900 and A330-900 are planes of the same category too right? One cannibalising the sales of other even tho these 2 seem to have their own specific role in the market.

Not sure how you've missed this: but yes, the A350 does indeed compete directly with the A339 in multiple aspects of the market.

E.g. SQ (who replaced A333s with the 250T A359s), DL who frequently switches between the two on TATL routes, and EK, who'd swapped its A339 orders for its second A359 order.
 
User avatar
DarkSnowyNight
Posts: 2912
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:59 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:08 am

Polot wrote:
I’m not sure exactly sure if I’m interpreting your comparison correctly but the 787 does not have a 1000 sq ft smaller wing area than the A330. That’s greater than the wing area difference between the 787 and the A350…


So you were right about that, and strangely enough, there is a topic covering why my conclusion was easy to come to, erroneous or otherwise. Reference: viewtopic.php?t=1444239

Having that been said, your original point about hot and high. The WA on both is fairly similar, with the 339NEO having a greater thrust to weight ratio. So again, how would that leave the 787 with any advantage?


Polot wrote:
I don’t really think getting out of 777X commitments played anymore of a role for Boeing than getting out of A380 did for Airbus, ie EK had money tied up at both OEMs they wanted to use elsewhere.


With no material performance difference between the 789 & 339 with the exception of a very small percentage of routes they would deploy them on, what else would it be? BCA are in no position to refuse deals at this point, and they were not when this order was made. They would not have been able to command a price premium here, especially with a carrier experienced in operating large numbers of 330s in the past.

It is possible there is something else we just have no access to see from here. But it is difficult to imagine how an airline with extensive high capacity, regional needs would have gone for a 789 in this situation without some serious financial incentives involved. Especially when they have all the ULR, heavy lift capable AC they will need for the time being...


Niloko wrote:
Well if we're comparing on the basis of absolute maximum these planes can carry then we probably can also say A350-900 and A330-900 are planes of the same category too right? One cannibalising the sales of other even tho these 2 seem to have their own specific role in the market.


If you wanted, sure. But the 339 will not canabalise sales from the 359 as it is meant to be a longer range, heavier lift vehicle. The 339NEO & the 789 are comparable on all but a low single digit percentage of routes. And that difference disappears altogether with the 787-10.

The 359 will be much closer to the 778.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:02 am

Polot wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Polot wrote:
Again, that is only relevant for ultra high density ULCCs (which are still a tiny minority of wide body buyers).

It is relevant to any carrier in that market as it reflects on the overall capacity and flexibility. The 787-10 does indeed suffer here. Utilizing the same number of seats, the 787-10 will weigh more per PAX than the 339 and hit a very steep payload/range drop first. This does put the 787-10 into a more regional role, where again, it is more airplane for the same lift as the 339NEO.

I also do not think we will see a large number of 440 seat 787-10s. But this is primarily a feature of them being non-competitive against a 339NEO in that role more than anything else.


This ignores things like a A339neo with the same amount of lift (in terms of passengers) as a 787-10 has a different customer experience than the 787. 9Y on the 787 and 8Y on the A330 is currently considered max acceptable by premium carrier, yet 9Y is needed on the A330 to gain max seating numbers. So a A339 with the same amount of lift as a 787-10 is either less premium heavy or pushing Y experience into a territory that only ULCCs are currently comfortable with.


That can change rather quickly, especially with difference between a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A330 being rather small compared to 10AB 777s/9AB 787s vs. 8 AB A330s. For over a decade a ton of people said that going from 18 to 17 inch is barely noticeable, but going from 17 to 16.5" is somehow unbearable? I don´t want to fly on either, but an airline with 9AB 777 or A350s and 8AB 787 and A330 cares equally about my creature comfort, and so do airline flying 10AB 777 and 9AB 787 or A330s.
And vs. a -9 that airline can give me an inch or two more leg room for the price of half an inch of seat width, and still can an extra row of Y-Class in. What makes 9AB A330 so horrible is that they invariably come with minimum pitch on top of narrow seats.

best regards
Thomas
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 4233
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:24 am

marcelh wrote:
What about a MMRT based on the A330NEO?

I guess this would be a logical development.

SEPilot wrote:
So what it comes down to is the most compelling reason to buy an A330NEO is that you really, really don’t like Boeing.

Yes, this is how airlines decide on their future fleets. For example, recently, Condor‘s procurement manager came into the office, threw his bag into the corner and said „aaargh, I don’t like zeeees guys from Chicago, I don’t understand a single word when zzey call me. Let’s take zzzeese French aircraft!“ :roll:
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:38 am

N14AZ wrote:
marcelh wrote:
What about a MMRT based on the A330NEO?

I guess this would be a logical development.

SEPilot wrote:
So what it comes down to is the most compelling reason to buy an A330NEO is that you really, really don’t like Boeing.

Yes, this is how airlines decide on their future fleets. For example, recently, Condor‘s procurement manager came into the office, threw his bag into the corner and said „aaargh, I don’t like zeeees guys from Chicago, I don’t understand a single word when zzey call me. Let’s take zzzeese French aircraft!“ :roll:


I guess the management at Virgin Atlantic was thinking along the same lines when the ordered the A330neo despite already flying the 787-9. And if there ever have been to virtually identical aircraft competing with each other, it would be those two.

best regards
Thomas
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1112
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:33 am

N14AZ wrote:
marcelh wrote:
What about a MMRT based on the A330NEO?

I guess this would be a logical development.

SEPilot wrote:
So what it comes down to is the most compelling reason to buy an A330NEO is that you really, really don’t like Boeing.

Yes, this is how airlines decide on their future fleets. For example, recently, Condor‘s procurement manager came into the office, threw his bag into the corner and said „aaargh, I don’t like zeeees guys from Chicago, I don’t understand a single word when zzey call me. Let’s take zzzeese French aircraft!“ :roll:


This whole 330neo vs 787 is a bit stale, as the NEO came over 10 years later.

the 330ceo was able to keep delivery parity with the 787 for many years and delivered 1000 aircraft since 2008, that is the same amount the 787 delivered since 2010. So I could imagine that for the future we see a relatively even split in sales as soon as demand is back.
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 2450
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:42 pm

zeke wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
From memory, when the A340 line was shut down, only the plumbing was removed from the wing, not the strengthening; if that's correct, it's rather easy to revert those changes for an A330neo MRTT.

Can someone confirm?


None of that is correct. The A330 wing never had A340 plumbing in it, nor did have the outer engine mount, the wings were like 90% similar, not the same. What was common is the provisioning for fuel, hydraulics, and electrics systems to run within the wing, for example the A340 has the ability to jettison fuel, where that was a customer option on the A330. All A330 tankers that are converted have a significant structure installed in the wing where the pod is. What the A340 provided is the modelling for the provision for weight that far out in the wing.

Thanks for correcting. So, what is the difference between the A330ceo and A330neo wing, if any?
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1483
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:14 pm

zeke wrote:
The A330 wing never had A340 plumbing in it, nor did have the outer engine mount, the wings were like 90% similar, not the same. What was common is the provisioning for fuel, hydraulics, and electrics systems to run within the wing, for example the A340 has the ability to jettison fuel, where that was a customer option on the A330. All A330 tankers that are converted have a significant structure installed in the wing where the pod is. What the A340 provided is the modelling for the provision for weight that far out in the wing.

IIRC I believe Airbus did remove the strengthening to support the weight of the outboard engine. This was done to reduce the weight of the wing. However, this measure was only done on late production MSNs. Older wings manufactured before this change still had the hard points required to support two engines on the wing.
 
johns624
Posts: 4049
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:47 pm

Yeah, a third generation of the A330 would be great! They could call it the A330MAX. Oh, wait.... :rotfl:
 
Jetport
Posts: 304
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:35 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
marcelh wrote:
What about a MMRT based on the A330NEO?

I guess this would be a logical development.

SEPilot wrote:
So what it comes down to is the most compelling reason to buy an A330NEO is that you really, really don’t like Boeing.

Yes, this is how airlines decide on their future fleets. For example, recently, Condor‘s procurement manager came into the office, threw his bag into the corner and said „aaargh, I don’t like zeeees guys from Chicago, I don’t understand a single word when zzey call me. Let’s take zzzeese French aircraft!“ :roll:


This whole 330neo vs 787 is a bit stale, as the NEO came over 10 years later.

the 330ceo was able to keep delivery parity with the 787 for many years and delivered 1000 aircraft since 2008, that is the same amount the 787 delivered since 2010. So I could imagine that for the future we see a relatively even split in sales as soon as demand is back.


You are kidding, right? :lol: Other than commonality for A330CEO operators, the 787 is superior the A330NEO in every way. Airbus's rationale for building the A330NEO was availability and pricing vs. the 787. Then Boeing ramped up production and lowered costs and left Airbus with a white elephant.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2623
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:47 pm

It would be wonderful for Airbus to go ahead with this A330MAX, more power to them.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12585
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:53 pm

Jetport wrote:
You are kidding, right? :lol: Other than commonality for A330CEO operators, the 787 is superior the A330NEO in every way. Airbus's rationale for building the A330NEO was availability and pricing vs. the 787. Then Boeing ramped up production and lowered costs and left Airbus with a white elephant.


not knowing the specific circumstances of every airline and how the A330NEO fits in that, versus the B787, we can all conclude that the real value for Airbus was to keep Boeing 'honest' in pricing. As far as I can see, Boeing is still isn't making money on the B787, if they ever will. Airbus, on the other hand, might even make sme money, even with this low run.
 
744SPX
Posts: 568
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:53 pm

Maybe a 12 foot shrink of the A338, plus some other minor structural weight reductions and keep the same wing but lighten it a bit. IF you can make 25 tons of the 50 ton weight reduction come from OEW, that might be enough to put it solidly in its own "NMA" niche.

Otherwise, the idea of selling a bone stock A338 with a 50-ton lower MTOW of which zero tons is OEW reduction doesn't make any sense.
 
Jetport
Posts: 304
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:07 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Jetport wrote:
You are kidding, right? :lol: Other than commonality for A330CEO operators, the 787 is superior the A330NEO in every way. Airbus's rationale for building the A330NEO was availability and pricing vs. the 787. Then Boeing ramped up production and lowered costs and left Airbus with a white elephant.


not knowing the specific circumstances of every airline and how the A330NEO fits in that, versus the B787, we can all conclude that the real value for Airbus was to keep Boeing 'honest' in pricing. As far as I can see, Boeing is still isn't making money on the B787, if they ever will. Airbus, on the other hand, might even make sme money, even with this low run.


Investing billions to make a money losing or break even product to keep a competitor "honest" on pricing is absurd. If a company did this and I was an investor in that company I would demand the resignation of anyone involved in such a crazy decision.

Pre-Covid the 787 was making money. No one is making money right now on wide bodies.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12173
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:09 pm

Jetport wrote:
Pre-Covid the 787 was making money. No one is making money right now on wide bodies.

I think he meant the program as a whole, not per frame basis.

But with the amount Boeing screwed up 787 development I’m not sure it was necessary for Airbus to do anything to ensure that Boeing never fully recuperated all money invested into the program.

744SPX wrote:
Otherwise, the idea of selling a bone stock A338 with a 50-ton lower MTOW of which zero tons is OEW reduction doesn't make any sense.

Its a low cost change- one order probably fully pays for all certification costs. This is no different than the A330R from a few years ago, where maybe Saudia was the only customer? There might have been one or two more.
 
bbowma77
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 3:15 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:00 pm

Length Cabin Width OEW 2 class seats LDL Containers
A330-900 208'9" 17'3" 298,000 276 33
787-9 206'1" 18' 284,000 290 36
A350-900 219'2" 18'5" 314,000 315 36
787-10 224' 18' 298,700 330 40

For comparison, its from Wikipedia so hopefully close to correct
 
tvh
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:41 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:13 pm

744SPX wrote:
Maybe a 12 foot shrink of the A338, plus some other minor structural weight reductions and keep the same wing but lighten it a bit. IF you can make 25 tons of the 50 ton weight reduction come from OEW, that might be enough to put it solidly in its own "NMA" niche.

Otherwise, the idea of selling a bone stock A338 with a 50-ton lower MTOW of which zero tons is OEW reduction doesn't make any sense.


It might make a little sence as long as there is nothing better on the market for this market niche.
 
User avatar
reidar76
Posts: 595
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 5:16 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:43 pm

bbowma77 wrote:
Length Cabin Width OEW 2 class seats LDL Containers
A330-900 208'9" 17'3" 298,000 276 33
787-9 206'1" 18' 284,000 290 36
A350-900 219'2" 18'5" 314,000 315 36
787-10 224' 18' 298,700 330 40

For comparison, its from Wikipedia so hopefully close to correct


I always recommend to check the Aircraft Characteristics and Airport Planning Documentation:

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/support ... stics.html

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/airpo ... nuals.page

If you're interested in comparing aircraft size, look for the length of the cabin between door 1 and door 4 (that’s where seats can be placed). Then multiple with cabin width. For example, the A330-900 is about 2 meters (6 1/2 feet) longer than the 787-9, but also consider that the A330-900 tapers more towards the rear. The 787-10 is about 3 meters (10 feet) longer than the A350-900. The A350 fuselage is wider allowing 10 abreast LCC seating.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16356
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 12:09 am

reidar76 wrote:
If you're interested in comparing aircraft size, look for the length of the cabin between door 1 and door 4 (that’s where seats can be placed). Then multiple with cabin width. For example, the A330-900 is about 2 meters (6 1/2 feet) longer than the 787-9, but also consider that the A330-900 tapers more towards the rear. The 787-10 is about 3 meters (10 feet) longer than the A350-900. The A350 fuselage is wider allowing 10 abreast LCC seating.


Only issue with this is galley and toilet use. The A330 does not use as much of the cabin between the first and last doors for galley and toilet use.
 
Speedy752
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:13 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:41 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Polot wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:

It is relevant to any carrier in that market as it reflects on the overall capacity and flexibility. The 787-10 does indeed suffer here. Utilizing the same number of seats, the 787-10 will weigh more per PAX than the 339 and hit a very steep payload/range drop first. This does put the 787-10 into a more regional role, where again, it is more airplane for the same lift as the 339NEO.

I also do not think we will see a large number of 440 seat 787-10s. But this is primarily a feature of them being non-competitive against a 339NEO in that role more than anything else.


This ignores things like a A339neo with the same amount of lift (in terms of passengers) as a 787-10 has a different customer experience than the 787. 9Y on the 787 and 8Y on the A330 is currently considered max acceptable by premium carrier, yet 9Y is needed on the A330 to gain max seating numbers. So a A339 with the same amount of lift as a 787-10 is either less premium heavy or pushing Y experience into a territory that only ULCCs are currently comfortable with.


That can change rather quickly, especially with difference between a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A330 being rather small compared to 10AB 777s/9AB 787s vs. 8 AB A330s. For over a decade a ton of people said that going from 18 to 17 inch is barely noticeable, but going from 17 to 16.5" is somehow unbearable? I don´t want to fly on either, but an airline with 9AB 777 or A350s and 8AB 787 and A330 cares equally about my creature comfort, and so do airline flying 10AB 777 and 9AB 787 or A330s.
And vs. a -9 that airline can give me an inch or two more leg room for the price of half an inch of seat width, and still can an extra row of Y-Class in. What makes 9AB A330 so horrible is that they invariably come with minimum pitch on top of narrow seats.

best regards
Thomas


That’s an absurd argument. That’s like arguing if I reduce 8 foot ceilings to 6 feet it’s the same comfort decrease as taking them from 6 ft to 4 ft. Your number are also off at 17.5 and 17.3 inches, making it mathematically wrong as well.
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 7499
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 2:16 am

744SPX wrote:
Maybe a 12 foot shrink of the A338, plus some other minor structural weight reductions and keep the same wing but lighten it a bit.

That would make it about 5 feet longer than the A300 which was 193' long and had a 147' wingspan, 190Klb OEW and 51,000lb thrust engines. Essentially a new plane :!:

744SPX wrote:
IF you can make 25 tons of the 50 ton weight reduction come from OEW, that might be enough to put it solidly in its own "NMA" niche.

The big question is would Airbus invest billions of dollars developing yet another "niche" aircraft especially during these very tough times, when they have no direct competition in that segment :?: They only built the A338 because it's just an incremental amount to what they already spent on the NEO program.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:25 am

Speedy752 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Polot wrote:
This ignores things like a A339neo with the same amount of lift (in terms of passengers) as a 787-10 has a different customer experience than the 787. 9Y on the 787 and 8Y on the A330 is currently considered max acceptable by premium carrier, yet 9Y is needed on the A330 to gain max seating numbers. So a A339 with the same amount of lift as a 787-10 is either less premium heavy or pushing Y experience into a territory that only ULCCs are currently comfortable with.


That can change rather quickly, especially with difference between a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A330 being rather small compared to 10AB 777s/9AB 787s vs. 8 AB A330s. For over a decade a ton of people said that going from 18 to 17 inch is barely noticeable, but going from 17 to 16.5" is somehow unbearable? I don´t want to fly on either, but an airline with 9AB 777 or A350s and 8AB 787 and A330 cares equally about my creature comfort, and so do airline flying 10AB 777 and 9AB 787 or A330s.
And vs. a -9 that airline can give me an inch or two more leg room for the price of half an inch of seat width, and still can an extra row of Y-Class in. What makes 9AB A330 so horrible is that they invariably come with minimum pitch on top of narrow seats.

best regards
Thomas


That’s an absurd argument. That’s like arguing if I reduce 8 foot ceilings to 6 feet it’s the same comfort decrease as taking them from 6 ft to 4 ft. Your number are also off at 17.5 and 17.3 inches, making it mathematically wrong as well.


Boeing says 17" (777) and 17.2" (787). With 2" armrest and 17" aisles you´d get 17" (777), 17.4" (787) and 16.7"(A33x). So, unless your butt is exactly in that 0.3" area of margin where your ceiling argument makes sense, a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A33x seat are functionality the same, and i´d rather have an inch more leg room.I´d much rather have an 18-19" inch economy seat from an airline that actually cares, or rather thinks they can extract more revenue from that.

best regards
Thomas
 
Jetport
Posts: 304
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:23 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:23 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

That can change rather quickly, especially with difference between a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A330 being rather small compared to 10AB 777s/9AB 787s vs. 8 AB A330s. For over a decade a ton of people said that going from 18 to 17 inch is barely noticeable, but going from 17 to 16.5" is somehow unbearable? I don´t want to fly on either, but an airline with 9AB 777 or A350s and 8AB 787 and A330 cares equally about my creature comfort, and so do airline flying 10AB 777 and 9AB 787 or A330s.
And vs. a -9 that airline can give me an inch or two more leg room for the price of half an inch of seat width, and still can an extra row of Y-Class in. What makes 9AB A330 so horrible is that they invariably come with minimum pitch on top of narrow seats.

best regards
Thomas


That’s an absurd argument. That’s like arguing if I reduce 8 foot ceilings to 6 feet it’s the same comfort decrease as taking them from 6 ft to 4 ft. Your number are also off at 17.5 and 17.3 inches, making it mathematically wrong as well.


Boeing says 17" (777) and 17.2" (787). With 2" armrest and 17" aisles you´d get 17" (777), 17.4" (787) and 16.7"(A33x). So, unless your butt is exactly in that 0.3" area of margin where your ceiling argument makes sense, a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A33x seat are functionality the same, and i´d rather have an inch more leg room.I´d much rather have an 18-19" inch economy seat from an airline that actually cares, or rather thinks they can extract more revenue from that.

best regards
Thomas


Only ULCC's put 9AB on A330's. There are no full service airlines that I am aware of that put 9AB on A330's. In contrast, almost all airlines put 10AB on 777's and 9AB on 787's. Comparing 9AB A330's (a rare bus indeed) to 9 AB787's is comparing apples to oranges.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:41 am

Jetport wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:

That’s an absurd argument. That’s like arguing if I reduce 8 foot ceilings to 6 feet it’s the same comfort decrease as taking them from 6 ft to 4 ft. Your number are also off at 17.5 and 17.3 inches, making it mathematically wrong as well.


Boeing says 17" (777) and 17.2" (787). With 2" armrest and 17" aisles you´d get 17" (777), 17.4" (787) and 16.7"(A33x). So, unless your butt is exactly in that 0.3" area of margin where your ceiling argument makes sense, a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A33x seat are functionality the same, and i´d rather have an inch more leg room.I´d much rather have an 18-19" inch economy seat from an airline that actually cares, or rather thinks they can extract more revenue from that.

best regards
Thomas


Only ULCC's put 9AB on A330's. There are no full service airlines that I am aware of that put 9AB on A330's. In contrast, almost all airlines put 10AB on 777's and 9AB on 787's. Comparing 9AB A330's (a rare bus indeed) to 9 AB787's is comparing apples to oranges.


Yes, which is what i said. 9AB A330s are considered uncomfortable because you find that on airlines that are also not generous with pitch and all else making up consumer experience. But still, i got plenty of friends not knowledgeable about aircraft that didn´t notice being more cramped between Cebus A333s and their A320s... so i don´t think many uninitiated would notice the difference between 17" and 16.7" with all else being the same. Or going from 17" with 2" armrests to 17.2" with 1.5" ones.
I am pretty sure had EK gone for an 9AB A330/340 fleet instead of a 10AB 777 fleet, that would have fund its way to other full service carries much the same way.

best regards
Thomas
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12585
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:43 am

Jetport wrote:
Investing billions to make a money losing or break even product to keep a competitor "honest" on pricing is absurd. If a company did this and I was an investor in that company I would demand the resignation of anyone involved in such a crazy decision.


Welcome to a duopoly. Airbus saw a market for the A330NEO, obviously, but the aspect of: if Airbus has to invest 2bn in a new variant and Boeing had invested 20bn, it might be a good idea because if Boeing has a hard time to recoup the 20bn over the project, they have less chance to make the next changemaker a put pressure on Airbus.
If I would invest then I would demand if that aspect wouldnot be taken into the account.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1112
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 6:57 am

Jetport wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
I guess this would be a logical development.


Yes, this is how airlines decide on their future fleets. For example, recently, Condor‘s procurement manager came into the office, threw his bag into the corner and said „aaargh, I don’t like zeeees guys from Chicago, I don’t understand a single word when zzey call me. Let’s take zzzeese French aircraft!“ :roll:


This whole 330neo vs 787 is a bit stale, as the NEO came over 10 years later.

the 330ceo was able to keep delivery parity with the 787 for many years and delivered 1000 aircraft since 2008, that is the same amount the 787 delivered since 2010. So I could imagine that for the future we see a relatively even split in sales as soon as demand is back.


You are kidding, right? :lol: Other than commonality for A330CEO operators, the 787 is superior the A330NEO in every way. Airbus's rationale for building the A330NEO was availability and pricing vs. the 787. Then Boeing ramped up production and lowered costs and left Airbus with a white elephant.


The fun thing is, that pricing, availablility, route profile, etc. all play into the airline making a choice.

Boeing can not ramp up production again, there is only one production site for the 787. The reason the 330ceo sold so good even against the 787 was actually Boeing not being able to deliver their product. Now we are 10 years later and if demand picks up Boeing is in the same dilemma again. On top of that, since the 330neo is on the market, there is no clear lead for the 787, especially when you think that it has so much more economy of scale. Since 2014 we have around 300neo orders and 400 787 orders.

Now lets see after this global wide body market reset how the split will be, I predict a 5:3.5 order advantage of the 787 vs the a330. If we take all commercial passenger wide body orders I see Airbus in the lead with a 9:6.5 ratio lead (350+330 vs 787+777X). This is mainly due to actual slot and production capacity available towards the end of the decade where I see a production rate for the 350+330 of 15 per month while Boeing will be at 13, just because the 777X will not pick up too many orders to go beyond 3-3.5 per month and the constraints of the 787 due to the factory closure (10 per month max possible).

This will increase sales of the 330 and we will see 10 350 per month and 5 330 per month.
 
brindabella
Posts: 745
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 12:02 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Speedy752 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

That can change rather quickly, especially with difference between a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A330 being rather small compared to 10AB 777s/9AB 787s vs. 8 AB A330s. For over a decade a ton of people said that going from 18 to 17 inch is barely noticeable, but going from 17 to 16.5" is somehow unbearable? I don´t want to fly on either, but an airline with 9AB 777 or A350s and 8AB 787 and A330 cares equally about my creature comfort, and so do airline flying 10AB 777 and 9AB 787 or A330s.
And vs. a -9 that airline can give me an inch or two more leg room for the price of half an inch of seat width, and still can an extra row of Y-Class in. What makes 9AB A330 so horrible is that they invariably come with minimum pitch on top of narrow seats.

best regards
Thomas


That’s an absurd argument. That’s like arguing if I reduce 8 foot ceilings to 6 feet it’s the same comfort decrease as taking them from 6 ft to 4 ft. Your number are also off at 17.5 and 17.3 inches, making it mathematically wrong as well.


Boeing says 17" (777) and 17.2" (787). With 2" armrest and 17" aisles you´d get 17" (777), 17.4" (787) and 16.7"(A33x). So, unless your butt is exactly in that 0.3" area of margin where your ceiling argument makes sense, a 10AB 777 and a 9AB A33x seat are functionality the same, and i´d rather have an inch more leg room.I´d much rather have an 18-19" inch economy seat from an airline that actually cares, or rather thinks they can extract more revenue from that.

best regards
Thomas


:shakehead: :worried:

Sorry Thomas - I always enjoy your contribution, but here the apparent functionality is misleading.

I have traveled both 777 at 10x and 333 at 9x. on a number of times.

777 fine.

333 excruciating. (**)

I strongly suspect the Wikipedia data above is for a 330 at 9x.

IE not for actual humans.

cheers

(**) money talks , of course. AAX offered very attractive fares out of Oz.
So I developed a rule to curb my impulse to take the (very cheap) AAX fare every time:

I would book the 9x AAX 333 if:

1) day only.
2) short flight only.

:faint:
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12173
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 12:53 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Jetport wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

This whole 330neo vs 787 is a bit stale, as the NEO came over 10 years later.

the 330ceo was able to keep delivery parity with the 787 for many years and delivered 1000 aircraft since 2008, that is the same amount the 787 delivered since 2010. So I could imagine that for the future we see a relatively even split in sales as soon as demand is back.


You are kidding, right? :lol: Other than commonality for A330CEO operators, the 787 is superior the A330NEO in every way. Airbus's rationale for building the A330NEO was availability and pricing vs. the 787. Then Boeing ramped up production and lowered costs and left Airbus with a white elephant.


The fun thing is, that pricing, availablility, route profile, etc. all play into the airline making a choice.

Boeing can not ramp up production again, there is only one production site for the 787. The reason the 330ceo sold so good even against the 787 was actually Boeing not being able to deliver their product. Now we are 10 years later and if demand picks up Boeing is in the same dilemma again. On top of that, since the 330neo is on the market, there is no clear lead for the 787, especially when you think that it has so much more economy of scale. Since 2014 we have around 300neo orders and 400 787 orders.

Now lets see after this global wide body market reset how the split will be, I predict a 5:3.5 order advantage of the 787 vs the a330. If we take all commercial passenger wide body orders I see Airbus in the lead with a 9:6.5 ratio lead (350+330 vs 787+777X). This is mainly due to actual slot and production capacity available towards the end of the decade where I see a production rate for the 350+330 of 15 per month while Boeing will be at 13, just because the 777X will not pick up too many orders to go beyond 3-3.5 per month and the constraints of the 787 due to the factory closure (10 per month max possible).

This will increase sales of the 330 and we will see 10 350 per month and 5 330 per month.

Prior to covid Boeing was ramping 787 down to 10 a month from peak of 14 (originally in 2022, then moved up to 1st quarter 2021, then covid) the A330 was at ~4 a month. If Boeing can get 10 out of one factory (unsure what Charleston alone is capable of, for some reason 7/month is coming to mind) and the demand to fill that then the A330 will probably still struggle. 25-30 wide bodies a month (10 787, 10 A350, 5 A330, then random 777/767s) is still extremely high output. I believe we are still a long ways from there- that will require a huge boom. Even when traffic recovers airlines have to financially recover from the complete decimation of the past ~2 years (ie, they will have to lower their debt loads).
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:01 pm

brindabella wrote:
I strongly suspect the Wikipedia data above is for a 330 at 9x.


Nope, Boeing and Airbus ACAPs.
Airlines may of course chose a more narrow seat for wider aisles for more efficient service and faster boarding, especially since those ultra dense A330 tend to fly shorter routes than 777s that can be found all the way up to ULH. An Airline could make the difference very marginal if they chose to.

best regards
Thomas
 
morrisond
Posts: 3497
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:12 pm

Polot wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Jetport wrote:

You are kidding, right? :lol: Other than commonality for A330CEO operators, the 787 is superior the A330NEO in every way. Airbus's rationale for building the A330NEO was availability and pricing vs. the 787. Then Boeing ramped up production and lowered costs and left Airbus with a white elephant.


The fun thing is, that pricing, availablility, route profile, etc. all play into the airline making a choice.

Boeing can not ramp up production again, there is only one production site for the 787. The reason the 330ceo sold so good even against the 787 was actually Boeing not being able to deliver their product. Now we are 10 years later and if demand picks up Boeing is in the same dilemma again. On top of that, since the 330neo is on the market, there is no clear lead for the 787, especially when you think that it has so much more economy of scale. Since 2014 we have around 300neo orders and 400 787 orders.

Now lets see after this global wide body market reset how the split will be, I predict a 5:3.5 order advantage of the 787 vs the a330. If we take all commercial passenger wide body orders I see Airbus in the lead with a 9:6.5 ratio lead (350+330 vs 787+777X). This is mainly due to actual slot and production capacity available towards the end of the decade where I see a production rate for the 350+330 of 15 per month while Boeing will be at 13, just because the 777X will not pick up too many orders to go beyond 3-3.5 per month and the constraints of the 787 due to the factory closure (10 per month max possible).

This will increase sales of the 330 and we will see 10 350 per month and 5 330 per month.

Prior to covid Boeing was ramping 787 down to 10 a month from peak of 14 (originally in 2022, then moved up to 1st quarter 2021, then covid) the A330 was at ~4 a month. If Boeing can get 10 out of one factory (unsure what Charleston alone is capable of, for some reason 7/month is coming to mind) and the demand to fill that then the A330 will probably still struggle. 25-30 wide bodies a month (10 787, 10 A350, 5 A330, then random 777/767s) is still extremely high output. I believe we are still a long ways from there- that will require a huge boom. Even when traffic recovers airlines have to financially recover from the complete decimation of the past ~2 years (ie, they will have to lower their debt loads).


Here is an article which mentions Charleston 787 line capacity and the ability to take it to 10 or 11 per month with an expansion. If they are expanding no reason they couldn't take it higher than that. The entire 787 Production system was at 14 per month before and I think they publicly talked about going to 20 if necessary.

https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SKBN26N08Y

It can be done if the demand materializes. Just like they were able to expand 77W production when sales demanded it.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12173
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:15 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
brindabella wrote:
I strongly suspect the Wikipedia data above is for a 330 at 9x.


Nope, Boeing and Airbus ACAPs.
Airlines may of course chose a more narrow seat for wider aisles for more efficient service and faster boarding, especially since those ultra dense A330 tend to fly shorter routes than 777s that can be found all the way up to ULH. An Airline could make the difference very marginal if they chose to.

best regards
Thomas

~16.5” seats are typically used on 9Y A330s. At 16.7” the total width is exactly the same as the interior width, but in reality there is a small gap between armrests and sidewalls and the widest part of the fuselage may not be exactly at armrest level (the widest part when measuring blocks of seats)+ headroom for window passenger concerns. This is actually illustrated in the A300 ACAP (same fuselage of course) where they actually have a 9Y layout drawn out. Each block of 3 seats, including the 4 armrest, is 57.1” with a 16.5” aisle.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1112
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:29 pm

Polot wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Jetport wrote:

You are kidding, right? :lol: Other than commonality for A330CEO operators, the 787 is superior the A330NEO in every way. Airbus's rationale for building the A330NEO was availability and pricing vs. the 787. Then Boeing ramped up production and lowered costs and left Airbus with a white elephant.


The fun thing is, that pricing, availablility, route profile, etc. all play into the airline making a choice.

Boeing can not ramp up production again, there is only one production site for the 787. The reason the 330ceo sold so good even against the 787 was actually Boeing not being able to deliver their product. Now we are 10 years later and if demand picks up Boeing is in the same dilemma again. On top of that, since the 330neo is on the market, there is no clear lead for the 787, especially when you think that it has so much more economy of scale. Since 2014 we have around 300neo orders and 400 787 orders.

Now lets see after this global wide body market reset how the split will be, I predict a 5:3.5 order advantage of the 787 vs the a330. If we take all commercial passenger wide body orders I see Airbus in the lead with a 9:6.5 ratio lead (350+330 vs 787+777X). This is mainly due to actual slot and production capacity available towards the end of the decade where I see a production rate for the 350+330 of 15 per month while Boeing will be at 13, just because the 777X will not pick up too many orders to go beyond 3-3.5 per month and the constraints of the 787 due to the factory closure (10 per month max possible).

This will increase sales of the 330 and we will see 10 350 per month and 5 330 per month.

Prior to covid Boeing was ramping 787 down to 10 a month from peak of 14 (originally in 2022, then moved up to 1st quarter 2021, then covid) the A330 was at ~4 a month. If Boeing can get 10 out of one factory (unsure what Charleston alone is capable of, for some reason 7/month is coming to mind) and the demand to fill that then the A330 will probably still struggle. 25-30 wide bodies a month (10 787, 10 A350, 5 A330, then random 777/767s) is still extremely high output. I believe we are still a long ways from there- that will require a huge boom. Even when traffic recovers airlines have to financially recover from the complete decimation of the past ~2 years (ie, they will have to lower their debt loads).


From about 2026 on we will have about 200+ wide body aircraft per year that will start turning 20 years old, in 2032 it will be over 300 a year that will turn 20. Half of them will be of the prior generation (330s, 77Ws, 380s, 747s). To only replace this capacity a rate of around 20 aircraft is needed. That does not include further sales. Now I know WB aircraft can be used up to 30+ years but I see older aircraft becoming very very uneconomical as soon as kerosene tax is implemented and I see (for the EU at least), that unnecessary CO2 emissions (=the difference in fuel burn between old aircraft and new aircraft) will have to be compensated. This will lead to an acceleration of fleet renewals towards the end of the decade.

morrisond wrote:
Polot wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

The fun thing is, that pricing, availablility, route profile, etc. all play into the airline making a choice.

Boeing can not ramp up production again, there is only one production site for the 787. The reason the 330ceo sold so good even against the 787 was actually Boeing not being able to deliver their product. Now we are 10 years later and if demand picks up Boeing is in the same dilemma again. On top of that, since the 330neo is on the market, there is no clear lead for the 787, especially when you think that it has so much more economy of scale. Since 2014 we have around 300neo orders and 400 787 orders.

Now lets see after this global wide body market reset how the split will be, I predict a 5:3.5 order advantage of the 787 vs the a330. If we take all commercial passenger wide body orders I see Airbus in the lead with a 9:6.5 ratio lead (350+330 vs 787+777X). This is mainly due to actual slot and production capacity available towards the end of the decade where I see a production rate for the 350+330 of 15 per month while Boeing will be at 13, just because the 777X will not pick up too many orders to go beyond 3-3.5 per month and the constraints of the 787 due to the factory closure (10 per month max possible).

This will increase sales of the 330 and we will see 10 350 per month and 5 330 per month.

Prior to covid Boeing was ramping 787 down to 10 a month from peak of 14 (originally in 2022, then moved up to 1st quarter 2021, then covid) the A330 was at ~4 a month. If Boeing can get 10 out of one factory (unsure what Charleston alone is capable of, for some reason 7/month is coming to mind) and the demand to fill that then the A330 will probably still struggle. 25-30 wide bodies a month (10 787, 10 A350, 5 A330, then random 777/767s) is still extremely high output. I believe we are still a long ways from there- that will require a huge boom. Even when traffic recovers airlines have to financially recover from the complete decimation of the past ~2 years (ie, they will have to lower their debt loads).


Here is an article which mentions Charleston 787 line capacity and the ability to take it to 10 or 11 per month with an expansion. If they are expanding no reason they couldn't take it higher than that. The entire 787 Production system was at 14 per month before and I think they publicly talked about going to 20 if necessary.

https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SKBN26N08Y

It can be done if the demand materializes. Just like they were able to expand 77W production when sales demanded it.


The question will be how long does the actual physical expansion of the plant take and cost in comparison with just a rate increase of the A330neo line. It could be that this cost could tip pricing power towards the A330neo towards the end of the decade. Also if the ramp up take a long time, Airbus might be able to fill the needs faster (like with the 330ceo sales vs 787 because of the delays). So Boeing would have to start expanding in 2023-2024 to have the capacity ready in 2028+ (I expect about 4-5 years of building new production lines, especially because of the long lead times of automated assembly robots and the need to build new facilities), while Airbus "only" needs to get suppliers to produce more as the 330 line is already laid out to produce 6-8 aircraft a month.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:14 pm

Polot wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
brindabella wrote:
I strongly suspect the Wikipedia data above is for a 330 at 9x.


Nope, Boeing and Airbus ACAPs.
Airlines may of course chose a more narrow seat for wider aisles for more efficient service and faster boarding, especially since those ultra dense A330 tend to fly shorter routes than 777s that can be found all the way up to ULH. An Airline could make the difference very marginal if they chose to.

best regards
Thomas

~16.5” seats are typically used on 9Y A330s. At 16.7” the total width is exactly the same as the interior width, but in reality there is a small gap between armrests and sidewalls and the widest part of the fuselage may not be exactly at armrest level (the widest part when measuring blocks of seats)+ headroom for window passenger concerns. This is actually illustrated in the A300 ACAP (same fuselage of course) where they actually have a 9Y layout drawn out. Each block of 3 seats, including the 4 armrest, is 57.1” with a 16.5” aisle.


If you get into the A330 ACAP you will see that Airbus found 10cm/3.9" interior space from outer armrest to outer armrest allowing for 17" aisles and 16.7~16.8" seats.
Hence Airbus claiming they can do seats "around" 17" for the last three years.
https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2018/11/0 ... 9-abreast/

Also why the A300 ACAP showing 17.2" seats for 8AB instead of the 18" 8AB on the A330.

Best regards
Thomas
 
morrisond
Posts: 3497
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:17 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Polot wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

The fun thing is, that pricing, availablility, route profile, etc. all play into the airline making a choice.

Boeing can not ramp up production again, there is only one production site for the 787. The reason the 330ceo sold so good even against the 787 was actually Boeing not being able to deliver their product. Now we are 10 years later and if demand picks up Boeing is in the same dilemma again. On top of that, since the 330neo is on the market, there is no clear lead for the 787, especially when you think that it has so much more economy of scale. Since 2014 we have around 300neo orders and 400 787 orders.

Now lets see after this global wide body market reset how the split will be, I predict a 5:3.5 order advantage of the 787 vs the a330. If we take all commercial passenger wide body orders I see Airbus in the lead with a 9:6.5 ratio lead (350+330 vs 787+777X). This is mainly due to actual slot and production capacity available towards the end of the decade where I see a production rate for the 350+330 of 15 per month while Boeing will be at 13, just because the 777X will not pick up too many orders to go beyond 3-3.5 per month and the constraints of the 787 due to the factory closure (10 per month max possible).

This will increase sales of the 330 and we will see 10 350 per month and 5 330 per month.

Prior to covid Boeing was ramping 787 down to 10 a month from peak of 14 (originally in 2022, then moved up to 1st quarter 2021, then covid) the A330 was at ~4 a month. If Boeing can get 10 out of one factory (unsure what Charleston alone is capable of, for some reason 7/month is coming to mind) and the demand to fill that then the A330 will probably still struggle. 25-30 wide bodies a month (10 787, 10 A350, 5 A330, then random 777/767s) is still extremely high output. I believe we are still a long ways from there- that will require a huge boom. Even when traffic recovers airlines have to financially recover from the complete decimation of the past ~2 years (ie, they will have to lower their debt loads).


From about 2026 on we will have about 200+ wide body aircraft per year that will start turning 20 years old, in 2032 it will be over 300 a year that will turn 20. Half of them will be of the prior generation (330s, 77Ws, 380s, 747s). To only replace this capacity a rate of around 20 aircraft is needed. That does not include further sales. Now I know WB aircraft can be used up to 30+ years but I see older aircraft becoming very very uneconomical as soon as kerosene tax is implemented and I see (for the EU at least), that unnecessary CO2 emissions (=the difference in fuel burn between old aircraft and new aircraft) will have to be compensated. This will lead to an acceleration of fleet renewals towards the end of the decade.

morrisond wrote:
Polot wrote:
Prior to covid Boeing was ramping 787 down to 10 a month from peak of 14 (originally in 2022, then moved up to 1st quarter 2021, then covid) the A330 was at ~4 a month. If Boeing can get 10 out of one factory (unsure what Charleston alone is capable of, for some reason 7/month is coming to mind) and the demand to fill that then the A330 will probably still struggle. 25-30 wide bodies a month (10 787, 10 A350, 5 A330, then random 777/767s) is still extremely high output. I believe we are still a long ways from there- that will require a huge boom. Even when traffic recovers airlines have to financially recover from the complete decimation of the past ~2 years (ie, they will have to lower their debt loads).


Here is an article which mentions Charleston 787 line capacity and the ability to take it to 10 or 11 per month with an expansion. If they are expanding no reason they couldn't take it higher than that. The entire 787 Production system was at 14 per month before and I think they publicly talked about going to 20 if necessary.

https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SKBN26N08Y

It can be done if the demand materializes. Just like they were able to expand 77W production when sales demanded it.


The question will be how long does the actual physical expansion of the plant take and cost in comparison with just a rate increase of the A330neo line. It could be that this cost could tip pricing power towards the A330neo towards the end of the decade. Also if the ramp up take a long time, Airbus might be able to fill the needs faster (like with the 330ceo sales vs 787 because of the delays). So Boeing would have to start expanding in 2023-2024 to have the capacity ready in 2028+ (I expect about 4-5 years of building new production lines, especially because of the long lead times of automated assembly robots and the need to build new facilities), while Airbus "only" needs to get suppliers to produce more as the 330 line is already laid out to produce 6-8 aircraft a month.


You forget that Boeing has the tooling for a complete other line. Just ship to Charleston and build a building. That would not take that long and I suspect was there plan all along.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:21 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
as the 330 line is already laid out to produce 6-8 aircraft a month.


Wasn't it 10/month plus 15% surge capacity already baked into supplier contracts, with those 15% just not having a sliding price reduction? Somewhere in the back of my head there is something about Airbus considering to go beyond 10 "for real" or just by using surge reserves.

Best regards
Thomas
 
LAOCA
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:18 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Thu Sep 02, 2021 3:39 pm

LightningZ71 wrote:
I like to imagine that there is a market for a lengthened A330-900Neo to the -500 fuselage length and somewhat shortened range based around the current highest gross weight A330-900Neo version. I suppose that a -600 fuselage length could technically work, but, I don't think the drastic range reduction that amount of extra structural weight would leave the plane useful for many airlines. Sometimes, you need to move a whole heap of people just a couple thousand miles and not half way around the world...


Not sure it's just a range issue you'd be looking at. I'm pretty sure the 339 starts to fall off its efficiency curve when getting too close to its max gross. A stretch may make it a good 350 PAX plane for short to moderate distance, but like a 300 PAX 900NEO where efficiency starts to degrade much above 4500 - 5000 nm, that would happen at a much shorter range with a heavier version. A carrier would have to have a plethora of missions within its most efficient profile to invest into a fleet of them, And Airbus would need a bunch of airlines that fit that to eat up the development costs. I'm guessing we won't see that.
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1483
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:32 pm

LAOCA wrote:
LightningZ71 wrote:
I like to imagine that there is a market for a lengthened A330-900Neo to the -500 fuselage length and somewhat shortened range based around the current highest gross weight A330-900Neo version. I suppose that a -600 fuselage length could technically work, but, I don't think the drastic range reduction that amount of extra structural weight would leave the plane useful for many airlines. Sometimes, you need to move a whole heap of people just a couple thousand miles and not half way around the world...


Not sure it's just a range issue you'd be looking at. I'm pretty sure the 339 starts to fall off its efficiency curve when getting too close to its max gross. A stretch may make it a good 350 PAX plane for short to moderate distance, but like a 300 PAX 900NEO where efficiency starts to degrade much above 4500 - 5000 nm, that would happen at a much shorter range with a heavier version. A carrier would have to have a plethora of missions within its most efficient profile to invest into a fleet of them, And Airbus would need a bunch of airlines that fit that to eat up the development costs. I'm guessing we won't see that.

The A345 is approximately 10 ft longer than the A333 - it has about 20 more seats. This will make it too close to the A359 - I can't see this happening.
 
User avatar
Mortyman
Topic Author
Posts: 6005
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:56 am

bbowma77 wrote:
Length Cabin Width OEW 2 class seats LDL Containers
A330-900 208'9" 17'3" 298,000 276 33
787-9 206'1" 18' 284,000 290 36
A350-900 219'2" 18'5" 314,000 315 36
787-10 224' 18' 298,700 330 40

For comparison, its from Wikipedia so hopefully close to correct



There is also the Airbus 350-1000
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 2817
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:22 am

zeke wrote:
There is absolutely no reason why the tanker conversions cannot be made to the A330neo, and it makes a lot of sense as it provides more fuel to offload.


I can think of one big reason why the A330neo can't be used as a base model for a tanker. The neo does away with all the provisions in the A330 wing to have two engines rather than one. The places where engines 1 and 4 would go on an A340 are the locations for hard points where hose and drogue ports are installed.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16356
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:36 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
I can think of one big reason why the A330neo can't be used as a base model for a tanker. The neo does away with all the provisions in the A330 wing to have two engines rather than one. The places where engines 1 and 4 would go on an A340 are the locations for hard points where hose and drogue ports are installed.


That is incorrect. The "provisions" in the A330 wing are ways to route fuel, electrics, and hydraulics inside the wing. The tanker does not use the engine mount from the A340 (never has), it has another structure that is placed in the wing during conversion.
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 2817
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:07 pm

zeke wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
I can think of one big reason why the A330neo can't be used as a base model for a tanker. The neo does away with all the provisions in the A330 wing to have two engines rather than one. The places where engines 1 and 4 would go on an A340 are the locations for hard points where hose and drogue ports are installed.


That is incorrect. The "provisions" in the A330 wing are ways to route fuel, electrics, and hydraulics inside the wing. The tanker does not use the engine mount from the A340 (never has), it has another structure that is placed in the wing during conversion.


I didn't say it used the engine mount. The A330 wing still strengthened where the outboard engines of the A340 would have been mounted. One of the difficulties in Boeing developing ,the KC-46 was having to strengthen the wings to allow hose and drogue pods to be attached.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16356
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:04 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
I didn't say it used the engine mount. The A330 wing still strengthened where the outboard engines of the A340 would have been mounted. One of the difficulties in Boeing developing ,the KC-46 was having to strengthen the wings to allow hose and drogue pods to be attached.


Where the pods are installed they remove the skin and place a mounting structure inside the wing. The bigger issue with tankers was how to route the systems within the wing, the A330 wing had provisions within the wing from the A340 heritage to run additional fuel, electric, and hydraulic systems.

Since 2016 they have been delivering what is known as “new standard”, https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... light.html
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:37 am

Mortyman wrote:
bbowma77 wrote:
Length Cabin Width OEW 2 class seats LDL Containers
A330-900 208'9" 17'3" 298,000 276 33
787-9 206'1" 18' 284,000 290 36
A350-900 219'2" 18'5" 314,000 315 36
787-10 224' 18' 298,700 330 40

For comparison, its from Wikipedia so hopefully close to correct



There is also the Airbus 350-1000


Also cabin length is interesting.

ferpe wrote:
Aircraft........................787-8...787-9...787-10..A350-800..A350-900..A350-1000..777-200..777-300ER
Maximum cabin width....5,49....5,49.....5,49.........5,61........5,61.........5,61...........5,87........5,87
Cabin length.................42,3....48,4.....54,5.........45,5........51,8.........58,8...........48,4........58,5
Cabin floor m2.............232,2...265,7....299,2......255,0.......290,6.......329,8........283,9........343,4

Aircraft........................777-8X..777-9X..767-300..A330-200..A330-300..A340-300..A340-500..A340-600
Maximum cabin width....5,97....5,97.....5,49.........5,28........5,28.........5,28...........5,28........5,28
Cabin length.................53,3....61,1.....40,0.........45,0........50,35.......50,35........54,65........62,05
Cabin floor m2.............318,0...364,7....188,8......237,6.......265,8.......265,8........288,6........327,6


from here: viewtopic.php?t=769733#p11106553

best regards
Thomas
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10372
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Mon Sep 06, 2021 5:07 am

Considering the A330NEO was the first plane to receive an EASA certification based on the 2028 standard, I guess it is save to say Airbus sees a future for it: https://www.greenairnews.com/?p=1142

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos