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keesje
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:47 am

I think Airbus has around 240 A330NEO in the backlog and a number of MRTT's. That's good for 5 years at 4 a month. Meanwhile orders will drip in, specially if Dreamliner quality issues keep holding up deliveries and adding MRO complexities.

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https://simpleflying.com/

1000 A330s to be replaced coming decades, so that should offer opportunity with long term A330 operators, such as the Chinese with their A330 completion center and trade war with the US.

Development opportunties may lay in incremental enhancements, NEO freighter versions and the Lockheed LMXT offer.
 
Jetport
Posts: 304
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:25 pm

keesje wrote:
I think Airbus has around 240 A330NEO in the backlog and a number of MRTT's. That's good for 5 years at 4 a month. Meanwhile orders will drip in, specially if Dreamliner quality issues keep holding up deliveries and adding MRO complexities.

1000 A330s to be replaced coming decades, so that should offer opportunity with long term A330 operators, such as the Chinese with their A330 completion center and trade war with the US.

Development opportunties may lay in incremental enhancements, NEO freighter versions and the Lockheed LMXT offer.


We been through this before. Air Asia X and Iran Air orders are a joke. The actual backlog is well under 200, maybe 150 at the most. Please stop with the nonsense.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:28 pm

The A330neo will have a similar faith as the 777X. Both have now newer competitors in the 787 and A350 respectively, and that is where the resources for further development will go.

The A330 entered into service in 1994, the 777 in 1995. Both tremendously successful programs. The 777 family has a slight edge in total, overall deliveries. If we consider pax aircraft only, no other widebody have been more successful than the A330.

Boeing launched the 777X program in 2013, while Airbus launched the A330neo in 2014. Both re-engine programs, with increased wingspan. The 777X also has a slightly stretch, the smallest stretch ever on a widebody. The A330neo has an increase in MTOW.

Orders stand at 331 for the A330neo and 320 for the 777X. Both backlogs include orders that are likely to be cancelled. The A330neo is certified and in service, while Boeing is significantly delayed with the 777X. It might enter service in 2024, more than 10 years after launch. (!)

Will neither program see further development? Updates? Of course. New variants? Maybe freighters and military tankers, but nothing else. I don’t think a potential 777-8 ever will see the light of day.

My best guess is that both programs will run until 2035 (max), with less than 400 pax aircraft delivered from each program (excluding freighters and tankers).
 
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keesje
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Mon Sep 06, 2021 11:16 pm

reidar76 wrote:
The A330neo will have a similar faith as the 777X. Both have now newer competitors in the 787 and A350 respectively, and that is where the resources for further development will go.

The A330 entered into service in 1994, the 777 in 1995. Both tremendously successful programs. The 777 family has a slight edge in total, overall deliveries. If we consider pax aircraft only, no other widebody have been more successful than the A330.

Boeing launched the 777X program in 2013, while Airbus launched the A330neo in 2014. Both re-engine programs, with increased wingspan. The 777X also has a slightly stretch, the smallest stretch ever on a widebody. The A330neo has an increase in MTOW.

Orders stand at 331 for the A330neo and 320 for the 777X. Both backlogs include orders that are likely to be cancelled. The A330neo is certified and in service, while Boeing is significantly delayed with the 777X. It might enter service in 2024, more than 10 years after launch. (!)

Will neither program see further development? Updates? Of course. New variants? Maybe freighters and military tankers, but nothing else. I don’t think a potential 777-8 ever will see the light of day.

My best guess is that both programs will run until 2035 (max), with less than 400 pax aircraft delivered from each program (excluding freighters and tankers).


Respectfully disagree comparing A330NEO to 777x.

The A330NEO is a reengined A330 with aero improvements. Certified & in production. Long sunk non recurring costs, attractive pricing. Low risk in the middle of the twin aisle market.

The 777X is an entirely new aircraft (wings, engines, fuselage, tail, landing gear, cockpit) which ran into certification problems, doubts about its market segment. And it seems relatively heavy & expensive.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1898
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:16 am

keesje wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
The A330neo will have a similar faith as the 777X. Both have now newer competitors in the 787 and A350 respectively, and that is where the resources for further development will go.

The A330 entered into service in 1994, the 777 in 1995. Both tremendously successful programs. The 777 family has a slight edge in total, overall deliveries. If we consider pax aircraft only, no other widebody have been more successful than the A330.

Boeing launched the 777X program in 2013, while Airbus launched the A330neo in 2014. Both re-engine programs, with increased wingspan. The 777X also has a slightly stretch, the smallest stretch ever on a widebody. The A330neo has an increase in MTOW.

Orders stand at 331 for the A330neo and 320 for the 777X. Both backlogs include orders that are likely to be cancelled. The A330neo is certified and in service, while Boeing is significantly delayed with the 777X. It might enter service in 2024, more than 10 years after launch. (!)

Will neither program see further development? Updates? Of course. New variants? Maybe freighters and military tankers, but nothing else. I don’t think a potential 777-8 ever will see the light of day.

My best guess is that both programs will run until 2035 (max), with less than 400 pax aircraft delivered from each program (excluding freighters and tankers).


Respectfully disagree comparing A330NEO to 777x.

The A330NEO is a reengined A330 with aero improvements. Certified & in production. Long sunk non recurring costs, attractive pricing. Low risk in the middle of the twin aisle market.

The 777X is an entirely new aircraft (wings, engines, fuselage, tail, landing gear, cockpit) which ran into certification problems, doubts about its market segment. And it seems relatively heavy & expensive.


They have a strikingly similar number of orders, yet the 77x seems to have more marquis customers, and a greater net order $$ total, imho. Both were firmed/launched around 2014-2015, I believe.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:33 am

keesje wrote:
1000 A330s to be replaced coming decades, so that should offer opportunity with long term A330 operators, such as the Chinese

Been saying this for a while. Won't be surprised at all to see significant A330NEO orders from the (greater) Chinese/Taiwanese: namely, some combo of CA, MU, CI, and especially CX.


keesje wrote:
The 777X is an entirely new aircraft

Well no, it isn't.

It's a significantly modified version of an extant model, but not much different than a 744 vs a 742B.
Definitely not an "entirely new" aircraft.
 
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keesje
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:28 am

It is an 80% new aircraft. Boeing "convinced" FAA in 2014 it was a derivative using the changed product rule. To save costs, tests and a lenghtly certification process.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424 ... 3968514184

Boeing / congress had strong influence on FAA at that time (budget re authorizations, streamlining, delegation), so the pressured FAA went along, to the surprize of many.

737MAX investigations (JATR) exposed the situation and Boeing/FAA have to redo certification in a solid, conservative way. EASA is keeping track, because they cover launching customers.

I consider this tge root cause of the many delay
 
micstatic
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:54 am

if the 77X is was an entirely new airplane it would probably be called the 797
 
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zeke
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:30 am

keesje wrote:
The A330NEO is a reengined A330 with aero improvements. Certified & in production. Long sunk non recurring costs, attractive pricing. Low risk in the middle of the twin aisle market.


I think one of the lesser discussed points regarding the Airbus FBW aircraft is that developments on one type flows onto others. Many features of the A350 and A380 found their way onto the A320 and A330. Airbus does this cross pollination of products so that CTR, MFF and CCQ can happen seamlessly.

The original A330 never had auto TCAS, ANF, FLS, XLS etc yet these have found their way onto different models to extract as much value out of the original R&D.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 2:32 pm

micstatic wrote:
if the 77X is was an entirely new airplane it would probably be called the 797


Boeing needed it to be classified as a derivative to reduce certification time and cost.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1898
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 2:50 pm

keesje wrote:
It is an 80% new aircraft. Boeing "convinced" FAA in 2014 it was a derivative using the changed product rule. To save costs, tests and a lenghtly certification process.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424 ... 3968514184

Boeing / congress had strong influence on FAA at that time (budget re authorizations, streamlining, delegation), so the pressured FAA went along, to the surprize of many.

737MAX investigations (JATR) exposed the situation and Boeing/FAA have to redo certification in a solid, conservative way. EASA is keeping track, because they cover launching customers.

I consider this tge root cause of the many delay


Well, Keesje can of course consider whatever he wants as the root cause, but it's a common type rating for the pilots as between 77x/77W and even with the 787. The 77x of course standardizes more systems on what is used in the 787. 90 percent of efficiency gains nowadays are with the wings/engines. Some savings by going to newer computers/fewer cables etc. Just replacing the engines would only deliver perhaps 70-80 percent of the savings of an all new aircraft. Going fully composite to replace the 77W with an all new aircraft would destroy commonality benefits for only about a 5 percent difference in total fuel/capital/operating costs (it would be pricier). This is part of the reason Airbus stuck with the old wings/fuselage on the A320/A330, and Boeing of course...on the 737.

Speculation as to Boeing pressuring 'congress' and the (executive branch) FAA into going along with the derivative classification is baseless, but again Keesje has limited knowledge of US regulatory requirements/processes, and much less as to US politics. Boeing has I believe done a poor job of coordinating communications/being responsive (to the FAA office) in the certification process, however, over the course of the past 24 months, as media sources have documented.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 2:59 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
keesje wrote:
The 777X is an entirely new aircraft

Well no, it isn't.

It's a significantly modified version of an extant model, but not much different than a 744 vs a 742B.
Definitely not an "entirely new" aircraft.

I would say it's more like both the 742=>744 and 737Classic=>737NG in that the wing is totally different in the 777X (whereas I believe the 744 had the same wing with aero mods).
But, I agree, not an entirely new aircraft: isn't Boeing trying to certify the 777X under the same TCDS as the original 777? Or at least was trying before the MAX certification scrutiny.
 
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keesje
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Tue Sep 07, 2021 4:44 pm

texl1649 wrote:
keesje wrote:
It is an 80% new aircraft. Boeing "convinced" FAA in 2014 it was a derivative using the changed product rule. To save costs, tests and a lenghtly certification process.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424 ... 3968514184

Boeing / congress had strong influence on FAA at that time (budget re authorizations, streamlining, delegation), so the pressured FAA went along, to the surprize of many.

737MAX investigations (JATR) exposed the situation and Boeing/FAA have to redo certification in a solid, conservative way. EASA is keeping track, because they cover launching customers.

I consider this tge root cause of the many delay


Well, Keesje can of course consider whatever he wants as the root cause, but it's a common type rating for the pilots as between 77x/77W and even with the 787. The 77x of course standardizes more systems on what is used in the 787. 90 percent of efficiency gains nowadays are with the wings/engines. Some savings by going to newer computers/fewer cables etc. Just replacing the engines would only deliver perhaps 70-80 percent of the savings of an all new aircraft. Going fully composite to replace the 77W with an all new aircraft would destroy commonality benefits for only about a 5 percent difference in total fuel/capital/operating costs (it would be pricier). This is part of the reason Airbus stuck with the old wings/fuselage on the A320/A330, and Boeing of course...on the 737.

Speculation as to Boeing pressuring 'congress' and the (executive branch) FAA into going along with the derivative classification is baseless, but again Keesje has limited knowledge of US regulatory requirements/processes, and much less as to US politics. Boeing has I believe done a poor job of coordinating communications/being responsive (to the FAA office) in the certification process, however, over the course of the past 24 months, as media sources have documented.


The FAA approving 777X a sub standard certification strategy must be one of the least popular media topics out there. Boeing, FAA, the wider industry, congress (Dem & Reps), government everybody knows. But there's no winners & most were complicit or sleeping at the helm. The public / stake/ stock holders are equally un-interested & want to look forward.

An national industrial icon like Boeing failing is not a favourite topic. No pride, no reader / customer satisfaction, approval for the media bringing the news. Dominic Gates did a brave unpopular thing (& he was 65 yrs old..) telling the true story. Guys like Scott Hamilton are also un-invited on le Bourget Chalets, for Executive interviews and demo flights. Better go with the flow.

On the 777X first it was the engines being blamed for the delays, then it was Covid-19. Truth is, the certification strategy certifying every part/ assembly/ subsystem as a variation of the previous one, trying to reduce expensive testing as much as possible was reintroduced after FAA tried to reduce it shortly before. And they were caught red handed after the MAX crashes.


Being optimist on (modified) subsystems interaction and requirements being challenged ,took a Leap with the 777x. For the 737MAX it made sense, is 80-90% a 737NG, but the 777x is 20% a 737-300ER (it's certification basis). JATR research and recommedations exposed the renewed agressive grandfathering of design and requirements pushed by Boeing/ congress and approved by FAA. https://pressfrom.info/us/news/us/-2586 ... light.html

Then key launch customers EK, LH started paying attention & EASA demanded closer involvement than normally is the case.
https://www.businessinsider.nl/boeing-7 ... =true&r=US

So it will take at least 4 years / 10 billon (?) in compensations, modifications and certification, testing rework to get the 777-9 into service.

And that's not the case with the A330NEO. It was more a straight forward certification, no new wing, cockpit, tail, landing gear, fuselage and systems. Airbus could have introduced more cabin space, bigger windows, relocated doors, an optimized tail, new landing gears etc. But they didn't. Probably not an optimal end product, but low risk / cost.
 
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PolarRoute
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:17 am

Going back to the a330...

Last iteration? Yes. There will most likely be no a330x or a330max or a330 pro max +...

Last development? I wouldn't know. Airbus has been incredibly successful at squeezing the potential out of this aircraft to the last single drop and at 251t MTOW it is already capable of doing 7000nm with ~270pax. That is effectively, what, PEK-anywhere in the US? All the while being reasonably, if not very, efficient on regional missions. It is a very versatile aircraft.

But I guess that is the choking point; it's already a versatile aircraft, so why put in more costs that has to be recouped anyways just so that it hinders a350's sales? Not to mention, by investing more means higher sales prices, the aspect in which Airbus is seem to be struggling against the 787.

Then again, if it becomes even more versatile, that could lead to more sales so... Maybe a 260t MTOW a339 to compete with that 'upcoming' 260t 78x?
 
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flee
Posts: 1485
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Re: Will the Airbus 330neo be developed further ?

Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:23 am

The A330Neo is playing wingman to the A350 - it is mopping up the orders that the A350 is not able to compete in. Airbus is always wary of that fact.

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