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keesje
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Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:19 am

The A319NEO seems alive because of Spirits order. Forming ~1% of the NEO orderbook isn't a good place.

In similar cases (A350-800/ 787-3) A/B were able to negotiate customers to convert to more popular variants.

Avoiding the non recurring cost of the unique version and it's live long maintenance / services costs & complications.

All A319NEO customers have large A320NEO orders. Only a few A319 ACJ order are made, converting those to A320 ACJ's seems negotiable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... y_customer

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Source: https://airbus-h.assetsadobe2.com/is/im ... =png-alpha

With the A223 becoming available also, I assume Airbus will try to negotiate all A319NEO's order into A320NEO's, they probably are busy doing so.

An airline like Spirit flies A319s close to 150 seats, they probably don't want the addition A320 space, weight, crew costs for specific routes, let alone a new type like the A223.

But often things can be negotiated if it''s all about the money. Operators/ lessors also don't like to own orphans with little rest value and unique maintenance requirements.
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Polot
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:24 am

keesje wrote:
Avoiding the non recurring cost of the unique version and it's live long maintenance / services costs & complications.

What complications? Most maintenance and service parts are shared with its larger siblings.

Airbus already built and certified the frame, at this point there is little additional costs in continuing to offer it in the portfolio. This is different than the A350-800/787-3, in which construction and certification had not yet started so canceling the variants netted a cost reduction.

All A319NEO customers have large A320NEO orders. Only a few A319 ACJ order are made, converting those to A320 ACJ's seems negotiable.

That is much easier said than done. Private customers are a completely different beast than commercial airlines and getting them to upgauge is much harder. That’s like saying Mercedes doesn’t want to build an E class anymore, so shouldn’t be too hard to convince anyone with an outstanding order for one to switch to the larger and pricier S class.
 
smartplane
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:36 am

No comparison between the margin Airbus derive on each A319NEO v A220-300. In the medium term Airbus need volume and production efficiencies to improve A220 family unit margins, but in the short to medium term, every A319NEO sale is profit in the bank.

Like the A330/A350 family, the A220/A320 family is ultimately in the hands of a single senior management team, which presumably prices to optimise production slots and costs, meet customer requirements and maximise profit / minimise losses.
Last edited by smartplane on Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Eiszeit
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:36 am

Eh ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ the work is done and the costs are booked , there is no negativ impact offering it to anyone at a pricepoint that includes a profit north of a newly sold a321n, of course if the choice is limited because of performance everything is fluid.
 
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keesje
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:57 am

The A319 has unique weights, loads, fatique, development and sub assemblies, engines, landing gears, etc etc.
To keep those in the air for 25 years, including unique maintenance programs, training, spare parts is something every operators would like to avoid.

Apparently nearly half the A319NEO backlog is unidentified and #1 customer Spirit has conversion rights.

A first A319NEO is ready for China Southern after waiting 8 months in Hamburg. They have another 1 on order the article says.
https://simpleflying.com/first-passenge ... s-a319neo/

It now seems Spirit has "swapped some of its A319neo orders for larger variants".
https://www.airguide.info/uss-spirit-ai ... l-a321neo/

Every A319NEO might be money in the bank short term. But if 25 yr support costs and supply chain / assembly disruption are included, Airbus might be happy to selll you a A320NEO at the price you got for your A319NEOs. To save everybody costs. They can do without another A318..
Last edited by keesje on Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Polot
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:02 am

keesje wrote:
The A319 has unique weights, loads, fatique, development and sub assemblies, engines, landing gears, etc etc.
To keep those in the air for 25 years, including unique maintenance programs, training, spare parts is something every operators would like to avoid.

Most of those are not a difficult challenge to deal with and do not result in unique maintenance programs. And the A319neo does not have unique engines- they are the same as on the other variants just derated. It might not even have unique landing gear but not 100% sure.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:14 am

keesje wrote:
An airline like Spirit flies A319s close to 150 seats, they probably don't want the addition A320 space, weight, crew costs for specific routes, let alone a new type like the A223.


That's part of a good answer. I'll suggest that an even more important part is the needs of customers with 320/321s who also want a few (fewer than ~forty) of something smaller but don't want the costs of another type. They won't be moved into an A220.
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:36 am

I don't see the issue for Airbus. The aircraft is produced on the same lines as the other A320neo-family and the components are for 95% the same as for the other aircraft. It closes a gap for certain customers which enables them to keep their fleet simple. Like Spirit. Another customer is China Southern, which will take delivery of at least 2 later this year.

The comparison with the B787-3 and A350-800 also doesn't make sense as those types never left the design phase and were never constructed. The A319neo was part of Airbus line-up from the beginning as there was a market for the aircraft for operating out of hot-and-high airports. That's why Avianca originally ordered the type.

I don't see Airbus abandoning the A319neo, there's no need. Yes, it competes with the A220-300 but not when you already operate A319/320/321s and want to keep it simple.

Cheers! :wave:
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keesje
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:27 pm

LifelinerOne wrote:
The A319neo was part of Airbus line-up from the beginning as there was a market for the aircraft for operating out of hot-and-high airports. That's why Avianca originally ordered the type.

I don't see Airbus abandoning the A319neo, there's no need. Yes, it competes with the A220-300 but not when you already operate A319/320/321s and want to keep it simple.

Cheers! :wave:


I think the situation changed, the A220 came in, customers are converting A319NEO's to A320NEO's. To build / operate an A319NEO probably isn't much cheaper than an A320NEO's. Maybe even more expensive, (certainly CASM) because we are looking at an orphan fleet type here, with probably little rest value after a few years.

Nearly 1500 A319CEOS were delivered, most are still in operation. But 70 A319 NEO's ordered in a decade, no new orders in 5 yrs, 0 lessors, a better A223 replacement in-house..

For reference: with deliveries from 2003, the A318 fleet are already half parted out (81 ordered/ delivered). Maybe the A319NEO will become the new A318..
Airbus might as well prevent so.

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Polot
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:32 pm

keesje wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
The A319neo was part of Airbus line-up from the beginning as there was a market for the aircraft for operating out of hot-and-high airports. That's why Avianca originally ordered the type.

I don't see Airbus abandoning the A319neo, there's no need. Yes, it competes with the A220-300 but not when you already operate A319/320/321s and want to keep it simple.

Cheers! :wave:


I think the situation changed, the A220 came in, customers are converting A319NEO's to A320NEO's. To build / operate an A319NEO probably isn't much cheaper than an A320NEO's.
Maybe even more expensive, (certainly CASM) because we are looking at an orphan fleet type here, with probably little rest value after a few years.

And right now A319neo orders are profitable, and A220 orders are not. So there is no value in dropping the A319neo at the moment for Airbus

Also dropping the A319neo and forcing airlines to convert costs Airbus money, because now they are the ones breaking their contract. Which means they have to offer A320s or A220s (whatever the customer wants to convert to) at a lower price for compensation. Is keeping the A319neo around and fulfilling current current orders cheaper for Airbus than breaking current contracts? Probably.

Nobody said that the A319neo would/should be aggressively marketed though. The A319neo (and 737max7 outside of WN) IS the new A318/736. This isn’t some brand new revelation it has been obvious for years now.
 
Noshow
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:41 pm

IMHO it has no future as the A220 is better. The A319 had some imprressive second life as a lowcost airline tool after easyjet ordered the double overwing exit variant with 156 seats. That was a breakthrough after years of slowing sales.

Having said that for big A320-family operators the A319 might still make sense as a smaller version in a simplified fleet.
Last edited by Noshow on Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
AngMoh
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:43 pm

keesje wrote:
The A319 has unique weights, loads, fatique, development and sub assemblies, engines, landing gears, etc etc.
To keep those in the air for 25 years, including unique maintenance programs, training, spare parts is something every operators would like to avoid.

Apparently nearly half the A319NEO backlog is unidentified and #1 customer Spirit has conversion rights.

A first A319NEO is ready for China Southern after waiting 8 months in Hamburg. They have another 1 on order the article says.
https://simpleflying.com/first-passenge ... s-a319neo/


China Southern is a good example: can they change the A319NEO to another type? I am not sure depending on where they are deployed. For routes to Tibet with high altitude airports, the only alternative would have been 737-600/700 with 737-7 unknown. Norway, Nepal, Australian Antarctic operations and other high demanding airports (some Rocky Mountain shying resorts..)? Is there really an alternative?
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:44 pm

Might need to keep the A319neo to have an offering similar to the 737-7MAX for short runway operations. Not that big of a market though.
 
Opus99
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:55 pm

It’s there if you need it but it won’t be our first choice for you.

It allows airbus to give their customers choice. Everything doesn’t need to fly off the shelves
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:58 pm

For sure the market has changed. But that doesn't change the fact the A319neo has been funded, certified and in operation. Every delivery is adding to the bottom-line of Airbus in a positive way. You can't say that yet of the A220.

Again, it will not hurt keeping the A319neo on offer. There more than 95% overlap on parts, meaning after-sales doesn't cost more than for the A320neo. Crew training remains the same if you operate the A320 etc.

I don't understand your push for Airbus to axe the type. It has a specific customer base. It's not big but it is what it is and it doesn't cost Airbus any more effort to sell/produce/manage the type.

Cheers! :wave:

keesje wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
The A319neo was part of Airbus line-up from the beginning as there was a market for the aircraft for operating out of hot-and-high airports. That's why Avianca originally ordered the type.

I don't see Airbus abandoning the A319neo, there's no need. Yes, it competes with the A220-300 but not when you already operate A319/320/321s and want to keep it simple.

Cheers! :wave:


I think the situation changed, the A220 came in, customers are converting A319NEO's to A320NEO's. To build / operate an A319NEO probably isn't much cheaper than an A320NEO's. Maybe even more expensive, (certainly CASM) because we are looking at an orphan fleet type here, with probably little rest value after a few years.

Nearly 1500 A319CEOS were delivered, most are still in operation. But 70 A319 NEO's ordered in a decade, no new orders in 5 yrs, 0 lessors, a better A223 replacement in-house..

For reference: with deliveries from 2003, the A318 fleet are already half parted out (81 ordered/ delivered). Maybe the A319NEO will become the new A318..
Airbus might as well prevent so.

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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:00 pm

Also it's good to offer a family of aircraft, even if the smallest or the largest don't sell well. Let's say the A319neo is cancelled now, perhaps the few airlines who want them, like Spirit or China Southern, could switch all future narrowody orders to Boeing instead because they can fullfill their needs for 150 to 220 seaters with one type with the same overhaul and cockpit procedures.
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:54 pm

keesje wrote:
The A319 has unique weights, loads, fatique, development and sub assemblies, engines, landing gears, etc etc.
To keep those in the air for 25 years, including unique maintenance programs, training, spare parts is something every operators would like to avoid.

Apparently nearly half the A319NEO backlog is unidentified and #1 customer Spirit has conversion rights.

A first A319NEO is ready for China Southern after waiting 8 months in Hamburg. They have another 1 on order the article says.
https://simpleflying.com/first-passenge ... s-a319neo/

It now seems Spirit has "swapped some of its A319neo orders for larger variants".
https://www.airguide.info/uss-spirit-airlines-orders-ten-incremental-a321neo/

Every A319NEO might be money in the bank short term. But if 25 yr support costs and supply chain / assembly disruption are included, Airbus might be happy to selll you a A320NEO at the price you got for your A319NEOs. To save everybody costs. They can do without another A318..

You seem to think that swapping an order for a larger plane means they don't ever want a smaller plane. Well, you were wrong about that when you suggested WN would never take any MAX7, they would convert all orders to MAX8, and MAX7 would be canceled. Now we see that WN has 234 (!) MAX7 on order!

We knew WN switched to MAX8 just because in the short term they needed more larger planes and still had plenty of young NG-700s to fill the smaller plane role. We knew that because WN CEO Gary Kelley was saying exactly that in the media, yet you rolled out your own unfounded, contrary theory for whatever reason.

Same thing was true on A220: You suggested a long term 737 operator like WN would switch to A220 just because its trip economics were good and ignored all the other factors working against it, and even ignored WN's CEO saying he was committed to the MAX. Now we read the suggestion NK will switch to A220 just because it sounds good to certain posters, yet we hear no one from NK suggesting they are even thinking of it.

Airbus is a big company. They make a lot of money from sustaining engineering. They have enough resources to cover both A319 and A220 for the foreseeable future. If A319 parts become costly they pass that cost on to customers and keep making money.

If they really wanted to save money they would not shut down one model in the family like A319, they'd shut down an entire family like A330neo. Yet they won't for the same reason, they still make money on sustaining engineering.
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:05 pm

If nothing else, the A319neo is a solid platform for the ACJ. Not going to be a huge number of sales in that, but since the product is already certified then that doesn't really matter.
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keesje
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:14 pm

MEA-707 wrote:
Also it's good to offer a family of aircraft, even if the smallest or the largest don't sell well. Let's say the A319neo is cancelled now, perhaps the few airlines who want them, like Spirit or China Southern, could switch all future narrowody orders to Boeing instead because they can fullfill their needs for 150 to 220 seaters with one type with the same overhaul and cockpit procedures.


I think "doesn't sell well" is a bit of an euphemism for the A319NEO (50 aircraft?). The backlog has been shrinking for years & now #1 customer Spirit, the SWA of A319NEO, is converting their orders to bigger NEO's.

- Spirit has 170 A320s in service, a growing number of NEOs on order and is reducing / coverting it's A319NEO order, without taking any.
- China Southern has hundreds of A320CEOs and NEOs in service/ on order, of which 2(!) A319NEO's, ordered in 2013.
- The only other customer is Air Côte d'Ivoire, with 3 NEO's on order, of which 2 A319NEO, ordered 5 years ago.

The A319NEO looks feasible as long as we don't look at the real numbers & ignore typical orphan fleet costs and issues (depreciation, resale value, sustainment costs, economies of (no) scale)). E.g. engines, landing gears, can't be exchanged with A320's. We are looking at maintenance and availability challenges compared to A320 and 737-8s. That's why nobody is buying them & converting them while they can.

Not a bad aircraft, but the changed market situation caught up with it and Airbus is not in the business of niche products. They have 5000 A320/321NEO's to be delivered, the XLR complicating the supply chain. They can probably do without a few dozen customized A319s disrupting the production flows.

But we will see, specially what the few A319 customers will do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... y_customer
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CFBFrame
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:34 pm

If there have been no orders for 5 years that is telling much. I would also assume that Airbus sales staff are not promoting the frame either? The A319NEO and the 737-7MAX face the same issue, they are application based and not market based? When they show up in the production plan I bet the operations team do quite a bit of investigation to determine if the space should be allocated to a 319NEO? ACJs may not be questioned, but one for an airline certainly would. Might go directly to the bottom line but I bet it's not that way in operations. No one would be upset if the program was quietly discontinued.
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:41 pm

How about airlines needing a "hot rod"? Can the A320neo cover that to an extent the A320ceo could not? Airlines like Atlantic Airlines or Druk Air now operate the A320neo, so it appears as if the A319 is no longer needed for niche applications.
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:50 pm

keesje wrote:
MEA-707 wrote:
Also it's good to offer a family of aircraft, even if the smallest or the largest don't sell well. Let's say the A319neo is cancelled now, perhaps the few airlines who want them, like Spirit or China Southern, could switch all future narrowody orders to Boeing instead because they can fullfill their needs for 150 to 220 seaters with one type with the same overhaul and cockpit procedures.


I think "doesn't sell well" is a bit of an euphemism for the A319NEO (50 aircraft?). The backlog has been shrinking for years & now #1 customer Spirit, the SWA of A319NEO, is converting their orders to bigger NEO's.

- Spirit has 170 A320s in service, a growing number of NEOs on order and is reducing / coverting it's A319NEO order, without taking any.
- China Southern has hundreds of A320CEOs and NEOs in service/ on order, of which 2(!) A319NEO's, ordered in 2013.
- The only other customer is Air Côte d'Ivoire, with 3 NEO's on order, of which 2 A319NEO, ordered 5 years ago.

The A319NEO looks feasible as long as we don't look at the real numbers & ignore typical orphan fleet costs and issues (depreciation, resale value, sustainment costs, economies of (no) scale)). E.g. engines, landing gears, can't be exchanged with A320's. We are looking at maintenance and availability challenges compared to A320 and 737-8s. That's why nobody is buying them & converting them while they can.

Not a bad aircraft, but the changed market situation caught up with it and Airbus is not in the business of niche products. They have 5000 A320/321NEO's to be delivered, the XLR complicating the supply chain. They can probably do without a few dozen customized A319s disrupting the production flows.

But we will see, specially what the few A319 customers will do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... y_customer


If keesje is saying an Airbus program should be killed, the A319NEO should go. I tried to tell him that years ago about the A330-200, the A321 (my bad on that one, but it was not selling at the time), and he fought tooth and nail.

Airbus - kill the program, your biggest fan says the fans should stop spinning on the A319NEO. Get your act together on the A220 and the death will be easier to accept.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:56 pm

I recall assertions a while ago that there was a cash flow advantage to an airline ordering a small frame with conversion rights, then upgrading later, closer to delivery time. Due to a lower deposit up front. Maybe that is what Frontier is doing, although if it works, why don't all airlines do it?
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:07 pm

CFBFrame wrote:
The A319NEO and the 737-7MAX face the same issue, they are application based and not market based?


Hardly. Other than Spirit, there are no meaningful orders for 319neos, and only orders for 73 total.

There are 234 orders for the 737-7 from WN alone, the bluest of blue chip customers, which ordered MAX 7s and didn't even regard A220s as being worth an RFP.
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:15 pm

CFBFrame wrote:

Airbus - kill the program, your biggest fan says the fans should stop spinning on the A319NEO. Get your act together on the A220 and the death will be easier to accept.


Why?

Right now, the growth at Spirit, for one example, is in garnering market share, especially between established routes. So, shifting A320 deliveries forward means those aircraft can go out and revenue now.

The advantages of the A319 in establishing new routes, esp. long range ones, isn't immediately apparent, and buying current 319s off lease is likely as good or better a use of free cash.

In no case, esp. for a single fleet user does a new fleet type make much sense. Plenty of people at B6 think the whole 190 thing is a fiasco, and lots of time and energy has been invested to try to make that square peg fit into round holes. For the time and effort, along with training/crewing/mx/operational efficiencies, a 319 would have been a better aircraft.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:20 pm

CFBFrame wrote:
Airbus - kill the program, your biggest fan says the fans should stop spinning on the A319NEO. Get your act together on the A220 and the death will be easier to accept.

I'm struggling to find the logic behind this.

A319neo is designed, tested, certified and ready for delivery. Any orders will only be for the good of the customers and the company. Future orders may come via ACJ. There is no need to toss out the program, Airbus can afford to keep it as long as they can sell them.

The only issue I can see is aesthetics, some don't like the way a model without a large number of orders looks, so they say kill the program.
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:21 pm

Airbus spent a lot of money acquiring the CSeries. The a320neo will no doubt be very profitable. I don’t know if the a220 program has broken even yet (probably not? I don’t know). I would think it’d be best trying to get more orders for it than to pay off their investment selling a319 neos. Just my thoughts.

Whatever the airline currently operates may dictate what they purchase too. Meaning they may not want to add a new fleet type. Or maybe they want something on the lower end with better efficiency.
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:03 pm

This thread is puzzling.

Perhaps NK wants the 319

More likely, they got a killer deal to keep the line open.

Why should they pay more to upgrade?

Why would Airbus give them a free upgrade?

The 320 Family has one big advantage over the 220…single pilot certification.

Im sure NK is very happy
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:34 pm

I think that Spirit's A319NEO order hinges on their route strategy going forward.

While there are exceptions such as LBE and ACY, Spirit seems to be going toe-to-toe with the legacies, Southwest and Frontier on more traditional trunk routes connecting bigger markets. If they continue down this path, then converting A319N's to A320N's or A321N's would make more sense, since higher capacity creates better economies of scale. However, if they decide to develop new, medium-sized markets, then the A319N might work better due to its lower trip cost.

I wonder if Airbus might make an attractive A319N offer to AA and UA, who both fly large A319CEO fleets? Both airlines have important hot/high/short runway markets that would benefit from the A319N's better airfield performance than the larger, A320N. Also, the A319N fits in with both airlines' existing A32X pilot pool & maintenance programs.
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:40 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
I wonder if Airbus might make an attractive A319N offer to AA and UA, who both fly large A319CEO fleets? Both airlines have important hot/high/short runway markets that would benefit from the A319N's better airfield performance than the larger, A320N. Also, the A319N fits in with both airlines' existing A32X pilot pool & maintenance programs.

There is no reason for Airbus to make such an offer unless UA/AA are asking. I suspect they would much rather want to break the A220 into those airline’s fleets.

The A319N is built on the same line using the same production slot as the rest of the Neos, Airbus has no incentive to push lower margin A319s over higher margin A320s and A321s other than to boost fanboy egos over order totals. That doesn’t mean killing the variant though.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:53 pm

keesje wrote:
LifelinerOne wrote:
The A319neo was part of Airbus line-up from the beginning as there was a market for the aircraft for operating out of hot-and-high airports. That's why Avianca originally ordered the type.

I don't see Airbus abandoning the A319neo, there's no need. Yes, it competes with the A220-300 but not when you already operate A319/320/321s and want to keep it simple.

Cheers! :wave:


I think the situation changed, the A220 came in, customers are converting A319NEO's to A320NEO's. To build / operate an A319NEO probably isn't much cheaper than an A320NEO's. Maybe even more expensive, (certainly CASM) because we are looking at an orphan fleet type here, with probably little rest value after a few years.

Nearly 1500 A319CEOS were delivered, most are still in operation. But 70 A319 NEO's ordered in a decade, no new orders in 5 yrs, 0 lessors, a better A223 replacement in-house..

For reference: with deliveries from 2003, the A318 fleet are already half parted out (81 ordered/ delivered). Maybe the A319NEO will become the new A318..
Airbus might as well prevent so.

Image
Frontier A318 scrapped < 10 yrs old. Copyright: see picture.


One major difference between the 318 and 319NEO in terms of orphan - the 318's that were equipped with PW6000 engines were 320 family orphans. I don't think it's any coincidence that AF, who still operate 18 318s bought theirs with CFM56s.

keesje wrote:
MEA-707 wrote:
Also it's good to offer a family of aircraft, even if the smallest or the largest don't sell well. Let's say the A319neo is cancelled now, perhaps the few airlines who want them, like Spirit or China Southern, could switch all future narrowody orders to Boeing instead because they can fullfill their needs for 150 to 220 seaters with one type with the same overhaul and cockpit procedures.


I think "doesn't sell well" is a bit of an euphemism for the A319NEO (50 aircraft?). The backlog has been shrinking for years & now #1 customer Spirit, the SWA of A319NEO, is converting their orders to bigger NEO's.

- Spirit has 170 A320s in service, a growing number of NEOs on order and is reducing / coverting it's A319NEO order, without taking any.
- China Southern has hundreds of A320CEOs and NEOs in service/ on order, of which 2(!) A319NEO's, ordered in 2013.
- The only other customer is Air Côte d'Ivoire, with 3 NEO's on order, of which 2 A319NEO, ordered 5 years ago.

The A319NEO looks feasible as long as we don't look at the real numbers & ignore typical orphan fleet costs and issues (depreciation, resale value, sustainment costs, economies of (no) scale)). E.g. engines, landing gears, can't be exchanged with A320's. We are looking at maintenance and availability challenges compared to A320 and 737-8s. That's why nobody is buying them & converting them while they can.

Not a bad aircraft, but the changed market situation caught up with it and Airbus is not in the business of niche products. They have 5000 A320/321NEO's to be delivered, the XLR complicating the supply chain. They can probably do without a few dozen customized A319s disrupting the production flows.

But we will see, specially what the few A319 customers will do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... y_customer


The 319NEO shares 95% parts commonality with the 320NEO. How is that orphan? If you need a small fleet of aircraft smaller than a 320NEO, it might be more sensible/economical to have a small or smallish sub-fleet of 319NEOs than A220s or E90/95s. China Southern case in point. I bet COVID is the main driver of the delay in entering that into service for them. Who knows how many 319NEOs Spirit will take delivery of but it'll probably be higher than zero.
 
Elementalism
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:01 pm

Noshow wrote:
IMHO it has no future as the A220 is better. The A319 had some imprressive second life as a lowcost airline tool after easyjet ordered the double overwing exit variant with 156 seats. That was a breakthrough after years of slowing sales.

Having said that for big A320-family operators the A319 might still make sense as a smaller version in a simplified fleet.


Better for whom? For Airbus selling an A319 or converting to an A320 is better.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:08 pm

I imagine that it fits the OP's narrative for Airbus to develop the A225 (cover A319 and some A320 and better compete with MAX7) and the A320.5 .... (cover A320 and better compete with MAX8).

But as others have stated all of the heavy lifting for A319NEO is done.... supporting it.. that's just a cost you pass on to those who bought it.

Airbus is in a situation not unlike Boeing when they had the 717. There was a faction at Boeing that wanted to kill the 737-600... There was a faction at Boeing that wanted to develope the 717-300. Boeing had to decide which program to throw more resources at.... Ultimately it was the encumbant (thier own 736.. whcih they killed anyway...) Airbus has the A223 and A319.... There is some overlap. Some at Airbus want to maintain the A319, some perhaps want a stretched A225.. Airbus may come to a crossroads where they will decide which program to throw more resources at...
Last edited by FiscAutTecGarte on Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Noshow
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:08 pm

Better for whom? For Airbus selling an A319 or converting to an A320 is better.


The technical performance of the A220 is better. That's what I meant to say. No surprise it is a newer design that doesn't need to carry elements from its bigger brothers.
It's a small plane with low seat costs and it is good for longer routes as well.

For Airbus it is better to use A320-family production slots for high yield A321neos instead of A319neos.
 
SXDFC
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:20 pm

When is NK supposed to take delivery of the A319neo?
 
CFBFrame
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:21 pm

In response to all of the comments above. The cost of 50 frames to Airbus can be tremendous. The suppliers will not be interested in supporting a program that has 50 orders, and there are no add ons. Those 50 frames are not going to be produced at one time, so the carrying cost for the parts is significant. Should that cost be owned by the suppliers? Airbus? Let's say the orders are pushed to the right for the next 5 years, and then Spirit says they need one with a limited commitment for the other 49? Who carries the inventory for the "to be determined" other production requirements?

Kill the program and offer discounts to Spirit to buy the A220. Makes much more sense. It helps to place volume in a place where the company benefits, and Spirit gets the application based frame needed to grow new markets.
 
Naincompetent
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:32 pm

keesje wrote:
The A319NEO looks feasible as long as we don't look at the real numbers & ignore typical orphan fleet costs and issues (depreciation, resale value, sustainment costs, economies of (no) scale)). E.g. engines, landing gears, can't be exchanged with A320's. We are looking at maintenance and availability challenges compared to A320 and 737-8s. That's why nobody is buying them & converting them while they can.

They can probably do without a few dozen customized A319s disrupting the production flows.


The issue in your reasoning is that all these costs are fall on the airline, not Airbus. There is absolutely no reason for Airbus to stop selling a product because its buyers may face increasing maintenance and financial costs. And the buyers know that.
It costs 0 euros to Airbus to continue offering the plane, and I doubt the A319 is that a disruption in the production flow...
If they make more money selling it than not, a sale is better than no sale...
 
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Revelation
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:04 pm

CFBFrame wrote:
In response to all of the comments above. The cost of 50 frames to Airbus can be tremendous. The suppliers will not be interested in supporting a program that has 50 orders, and there are no add ons. Those 50 frames are not going to be produced at one time, so the carrying cost for the parts is significant. Should that cost be owned by the suppliers? Airbus? Let's say the orders are pushed to the right for the next 5 years, and then Spirit says they need one with a limited commitment for the other 49? Who carries the inventory for the "to be determined" other production requirements?

Kill the program and offer discounts to Spirit to buy the A220. Makes much more sense. It helps to place volume in a place where the company benefits, and Spirit gets the application based frame needed to grow new markets.

I'm not following.

A319NEO is hugely compatible with A320NEO, above 95% compatibility is suggested. This 'carrying cost' is trivial in Airbus's books and will be born because A319 is the preferred platform for ACJ.

Airbus still loses money making A220 and is not planning to ramp beyond 14/month whereas A320 is targeted for 60/month and they are bringing a new production line at TLS online. If A220 was as wondrous as some here suggest it is, it would be A220 getting the new FAL, but nope, it's A320. They are on target for a 4:1 ratio in favor of A320 and IMO likely to increase A320 production faster than A220 and with more profit each time they do.

IMO it makes no sense to shunt a customer who already has delivery positions they are happy with on A319 over to A220, at least not till A220 has similar profit margins, which IMO may never happen. A220 has a deep queue as well, and until it becomes clear it can service that queue as profitably as A32x can there's no sense in moving customers over.

My prediction: the last A319neo ever produced will be produced after the last A220 ever is produced. A320 family will stay in production longer than A220 will, and someone will decide they want an A319neo or ACJ for delivery after A220 ceases production.
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CFBFrame
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
CFBFrame wrote:
In response to all of the comments above. The cost of 50 frames to Airbus can be tremendous. The suppliers will not be interested in supporting a program that has 50 orders, and there are no add ons. Those 50 frames are not going to be produced at one time, so the carrying cost for the parts is significant. Should that cost be owned by the suppliers? Airbus? Let's say the orders are pushed to the right for the next 5 years, and then Spirit says they need one with a limited commitment for the other 49? Who carries the inventory for the "to be determined" other production requirements?

Kill the program and offer discounts to Spirit to buy the A220. Makes much more sense. It helps to place volume in a place where the company benefits, and Spirit gets the application based frame needed to grow new markets.

I'm not following.

A319NEO is hugely compatible with A320NEO, above 95% compatibility is suggested. This 'carrying cost' is trivial in Airbus's books and will be born because A319 is the preferred platform for ACJ.

Airbus still loses money making A220 and is not planning to ramp beyond 14/month whereas A320 is targeted for 60/month and they are bringing a new production line at TLS online. If A220 was as wondrous as some here suggest it is, it would be A220 getting the new FAL, but nope, it's A320. They are on target for a 4:1 ratio in favor of A320 and IMO likely to increase A320 production faster than A220 and with more profit each time they do.

IMO it makes no sense to shunt a customer who already has delivery positions they are happy with on A319 over to A220, at least not till A220 has similar profit margins, which IMO may never happen. A220 has a deep queue as well, and until it becomes clear it can service that queue as profitably as A32x can there's no sense in moving customers over.

My prediction: the last A319neo ever produced will be produced after the last A220 ever is produced. A320 family will stay in production longer than A220 will, and someone will decide they want an A319neo or ACJ for delivery after A220 ceases production.


Points well made. After spending so many years in the industry holding the 5% inventory, and the costs we had to absorb for the "just in case" sales of 50 frames is not easy to plan for or absorb. I'm telling you the move to right issues on 40% of the Airbus supply base is expensive. Your question about the A220. if I know there is interest in a new program I can get more competitive bids from people wanting to get into a program. If I ask for bids on a program that has had stale demand, there is limited interest and the price for the small requirements are substantial. Approved suppliers on the A320 and A321 programs enjoy demand and are interested in increasing output. Those same suppliers are not willing to play in the 5% for the A319, because it has a potential of going stale. The ACJ business is different because the client places an order and they generally purchase on the agreed upon date. Spirit is market driven, and we all know about the aircraft market.
 
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keesje
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:32 pm

Replacing a A319NEO order with the slightly bigger A320NEO would be the way forward. Offering A220s instead is a totally different story. All A319NEO airline customers have A320NEO's on order / in service already. (Spirit, Southern and Cote d'Azur)

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CFBFrame
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:48 pm

Hey Keesje - If I remember correctly, are the A319s more expensive to operate than the A320s? I thought it was a weight issue because the 319s share so much commonality with the bigger model? Yes there are crew requirement differences but when all is factored in it was cheaper to fly the 320, and Airbus even pushed that story?

Still can't get over you supporting downsizing the A320 family offering. Is that driven by the demand for the A321 that you helped stimulate? Have to give you credit for all of the drawings you shared about effective modifications.
 
smartplane
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:43 pm

keesje wrote:
The A319 has unique weights, loads, fatique, development and sub assemblies, engines, landing gears, etc etc.
To keep those in the air for 25 years, including unique maintenance programs, training, spare parts is something every operators would like to avoid.

Apparently nearly half the A319NEO backlog is unidentified and #1 customer Spirit has conversion rights.

A first A319NEO is ready for China Southern after waiting 8 months in Hamburg. They have another 1 on order the article says.
https://simpleflying.com/first-passenge ... s-a319neo/

It now seems Spirit has "swapped some of its A319neo orders for larger variants".
https://www.airguide.info/uss-spirit-ai ... l-a321neo/

Every A319NEO might be money in the bank short term. But if 25 yr support costs and supply chain / assembly disruption are included, Airbus might be happy to selll you a A320NEO at the price you got for your A319NEOs. To save everybody costs. They can do without another A318..

The World has changed. No OEM today will likely support a commercial aircraft, 25 years beyond end of production, for reasons of cost, liability, insurance, emissions, new sales, image.................

Some canny early adopters and especially end of production customers negotiate an OEM support clause period, as this helps protect residuals. Doubt you will find any now greater than 20 years at start, and less at end. OEM's would rather include a diminishing buyback formula.

Probably more risk of A220-100 support ending in less than 25 years than A319NEO

Until the A220 and A320 family share a common cockpit, customers with cash in hand, will determine the end of A319NEO production, especially as every A220 loses Airbus money, and every A319NEO doesn't.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:16 pm

CFBFrame wrote:
In response to all of the comments above. The cost of 50 frames to Airbus can be tremendous. The suppliers will not be interested in supporting a program that has 50 orders, and there are no add ons. Those 50 frames are not going to be produced at one time, so the carrying cost for the parts is significant. Should that cost be owned by the suppliers? Airbus? Let's say the orders are pushed to the right for the next 5 years, and then Spirit says they need one with a limited commitment for the other 49? Who carries the inventory for the "to be determined" other production requirements?

Kill the program and offer discounts to Spirit to buy the A220. Makes much more sense. It helps to place volume in a place where the company benefits, and Spirit gets the application based frame needed to grow new markets.

But that whole reasoning hinges on the supposed lack of commonality between the A319neo and A320/321neo. What parts are different between the A319neo and A320neo? And are they THAT different to manufacture or are they just a slight derivative from one another? What's the actual extra cost to manufacture the part specific to the A319neo?
 
Nean1
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:25 pm

The A319 probably brings Airbus a much higher margin than the A223 and has already been certified. The timing of canceling the project has passed. If international flights remain depressed for a long time, the use of these aircraft can be a way to serve regions with little traffic in an economical way.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:11 pm

Polot wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
I wonder if Airbus might make an attractive A319N offer to AA and UA, who both fly large A319CEO fleets? Both airlines have important hot/high/short runway markets that would benefit from the A319N's better airfield performance than the larger, A320N. Also, the A319N fits in with both airlines' existing A32X pilot pool & maintenance programs.

There is no reason for Airbus to make such an offer unless UA/AA are asking. I suspect they would much rather want to break the A220 into those airline’s fleets.

The A319N is built on the same line using the same production slot as the rest of the Neos, Airbus has no incentive to push lower margin A319s over higher margin A320s and A321s other than to boost fanboy egos over order totals. That doesn’t mean killing the variant though.


Both UA and AA have already selected their mid-sized, new-generation aircraft in the 150~180 seat class and those are the B737MAX8 (AA/UA) and MAX9 (UA). Airbus is getting the B757 replacements with these airlines selling them the 190~200-seat, A321NEO's & XLR's.

But the time is time is fast arriving when both UA and AA will need to address replacing their large A319 fleets (and in the case of UA, also the B737-700's). Going with the A220 may be the fashionable choice, but doing so would be adding a completely new type, which would require a new pilot pool, as well as new training and maintenance programs. It would also probably open up union negotiations over pay rates and pilot seniority status for the new type, which in turn could impact rates and seniority statuses for legacy types. AA and UA buying either the A319NEO or B737-7 would largely avoid these issues.
 
CFBFrame
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:15 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
CFBFrame wrote:
In response to all of the comments above. The cost of 50 frames to Airbus can be tremendous. The suppliers will not be interested in supporting a program that has 50 orders, and there are no add ons. Those 50 frames are not going to be produced at one time, so the carrying cost for the parts is significant. Should that cost be owned by the suppliers? Airbus? Let's say the orders are pushed to the right for the next 5 years, and then Spirit says they need one with a limited commitment for the other 49? Who carries the inventory for the "to be determined" other production requirements?

Kill the program and offer discounts to Spirit to buy the A220. Makes much more sense. It helps to place volume in a place where the company benefits, and Spirit gets the application based frame needed to grow new markets.

But that whole reasoning hinges on the supposed lack of commonality between the A319neo and A320/321neo. What parts are different between the A319neo and A320neo? And are they THAT different to manufacture or are they just a slight derivative from one another? What's the actual extra cost to manufacture the part specific to the A319neo?


In the aerospace industry, parts are not cheap. People like to throw out the 95% commonality, but they do not throw out the value of the 5%. If the 5% represents 20% of the cost of the configuration, is it a good thing to produce 50 frames? Because the suppliers know the risk of the program, do you think they are looking for cost reduction and cost sharing discussions? If it a landing gear, do you think Honeywell is interested in entertaining cost reduction activities?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:26 pm

When Airbus acquired the C-Series they said they were going to stop actively marketing the A319 and push the A220 instead. However, they said the A319 would still be available for customers that really wanted it (including ACJ).

The A319neo has been certified since that statement. All the money has been spent, it's really no skin off Airbus's nose to still have it available, and I certainly see no advantage in dropping it. The backlog of A319s isn't big enough to worry about. Going forward, if Airbus prefers not to produce A319s (because they get higher value from A320s & A321s), then all they have to do is price the A319 accordingly.
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WayexTDI
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:02 am

CFBFrame wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
CFBFrame wrote:
In response to all of the comments above. The cost of 50 frames to Airbus can be tremendous. The suppliers will not be interested in supporting a program that has 50 orders, and there are no add ons. Those 50 frames are not going to be produced at one time, so the carrying cost for the parts is significant. Should that cost be owned by the suppliers? Airbus? Let's say the orders are pushed to the right for the next 5 years, and then Spirit says they need one with a limited commitment for the other 49? Who carries the inventory for the "to be determined" other production requirements?

Kill the program and offer discounts to Spirit to buy the A220. Makes much more sense. It helps to place volume in a place where the company benefits, and Spirit gets the application based frame needed to grow new markets.

But that whole reasoning hinges on the supposed lack of commonality between the A319neo and A320/321neo. What parts are different between the A319neo and A320neo? And are they THAT different to manufacture or are they just a slight derivative from one another? What's the actual extra cost to manufacture the part specific to the A319neo?


In the aerospace industry, parts are not cheap. People like to throw out the 95% commonality, but they do not throw out the value of the 5%. If the 5% represents 20% of the cost of the configuration, is it a good thing to produce 50 frames? Because the suppliers know the risk of the program, do you think they are looking for cost reduction and cost sharing discussions? If it a landing gear, do you think Honeywell is interested in entertaining cost reduction activities?

Some parts are not common (different LRUs) but that doesn't mean they are THAT different for the OEM.
Example: the Retractable Landing Light on the A318/19/20 is a different P/N that on the A300-600/A310 and the A321, but all the internals and evolutions are the same; the difference is the extension angle. Different LRUs (3 in total), different parts to stock, same part to manufacture and repair (same CMM).
 
9252fly
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:09 am

I'll express the view that Airbus will continue offering and producing the A319 and A221/3 for many years to come. The question is, what's their long game? I foresee a A225 and A322 in the future. If I'm wrong, oh well.
 
Jetport
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:17 am

Polot wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
I wonder if Airbus might make an attractive A319N offer to AA and UA, who both fly large A319CEO fleets? Both airlines have important hot/high/short runway markets that would benefit from the A319N's better airfield performance than the larger, A320N. Also, the A319N fits in with both airlines' existing A32X pilot pool & maintenance programs.

There is no reason for Airbus to make such an offer unless UA/AA are asking. I suspect they would much rather want to break the A220 into those airline’s fleets.

The A319N is built on the same line using the same production slot as the rest of the Neos, Airbus has no incentive to push lower margin A319s over higher margin A320s and A321s other than to boost fanboy egos over order totals. That doesn’t mean killing the variant though.


I believe you just contradicted yourself from the first to the second paragraph of your post. If Airbus wants to push higher margin A320's/A321's over A319's, they definitely want to push higher margin cash flow positive A319's over negative margin A220's. I suspect Airbus can make an A319 for many millions less than an A220. This is why the A319 will likely survive and why the A220 is struggling outside of very small airlines and crazy low priced large launch orders like Delta's.

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