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TWA772LR
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:18 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
Polot wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
I wonder if Airbus might make an attractive A319N offer to AA and UA, who both fly large A319CEO fleets? Both airlines have important hot/high/short runway markets that would benefit from the A319N's better airfield performance than the larger, A320N. Also, the A319N fits in with both airlines' existing A32X pilot pool & maintenance programs.

There is no reason for Airbus to make such an offer unless UA/AA are asking. I suspect they would much rather want to break the A220 into those airline’s fleets.

The A319N is built on the same line using the same production slot as the rest of the Neos, Airbus has no incentive to push lower margin A319s over higher margin A320s and A321s other than to boost fanboy egos over order totals. That doesn’t mean killing the variant though.


Both UA and AA have already selected their mid-sized, new-generation aircraft in the 150~180 seat class and those are the B737MAX8 (AA/UA) and MAX9 (UA). Airbus is getting the B757 replacements with these airlines selling them the 190~200-seat, A321NEO's & XLR's.

But the time is time is fast arriving when both UA and AA will need to address replacing their large A319 fleets (and in the case of UA, also the B737-700's). Going with the A220 may be the fashionable choice, but doing so would be adding a completely new type, which would require a new pilot pool, as well as new training and maintenance programs. It would also probably open up union negotiations over pay rates and pilot seniority status for the new type, which in turn could impact rates and seniority statuses for legacy types. AA and UA buying either the A319NEO or B737-7 would largely avoid these issues.

UAs strategy is to upgauge. Personally I'd love to see a UA (and AA for that matter) A220 order, but those used 73G order a few years ago makes me think they'll go with the MAX 7 is that time comes, which I'd be ok with since I have an affinity for the smaller frames in the 320 and 737 families.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:16 am

The A319NEO is already "on request" status. Yet, some airlines do or did request it.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:21 am

Can't for the life of me see why Airbus should kill an already available product, for which everything has been done, costs have been covered, paperwork has been done, certification too... I mean, it's no big deal from a purely administrative and financial points of view. Surely along the production line this might create the proverbial temporary headache for a thing or three, but that is a negligible factor overall.
It broadens the overall attractiveness of the A3XX line.

On a side note, as a purely personal opinion (and preference), while the A220 has amazing looks and indeed looks sexy as hell, I still prefer flying on an A319, with its big, fat fuselage, than on an A220, which honestly I don't find particularly comfortable... aside from the big oval windows, I totally fail to see how 5-across seating is this formidable panacea for in-flight comfort.....
 
Noshow
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:13 am

IIRC there were long time plans to use the A319 as a platform for some military P-8 style aircraft. Maybe this ship has sailed but at least for the ACJ business the A319neo might come in handy.
 
CFBFrame
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:23 am

Jetport wrote:
Polot wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
I wonder if Airbus might make an attractive A319N offer to AA and UA, who both fly large A319CEO fleets? Both airlines have important hot/high/short runway markets that would benefit from the A319N's better airfield performance than the larger, A320N. Also, the A319N fits in with both airlines' existing A32X pilot pool & maintenance programs.

There is no reason for Airbus to make such an offer unless UA/AA are asking. I suspect they would much rather want to break the A220 into those airline’s fleets.

The A319N is built on the same line using the same production slot as the rest of the Neos, Airbus has no incentive to push lower margin A319s over higher margin A320s and A321s other than to boost fanboy egos over order totals. That doesn’t mean killing the variant though.


I believe you just contradicted yourself from the first to the second paragraph of your post. If Airbus wants to push higher margin A320's/A321's over A319's, they definitely want to push higher margin cash flow positive A319's over negative margin A220's. I suspect Airbus can make an A319 for many millions less than an A220. This is why the A319 will likely survive and why the A220 is struggling outside of very small airlines and crazy low priced large launch orders like Delta's.


I believe if they could stop selling the A319NEO they would. I also believe if the A220 was to be a market changing aircraft it would have proven itself by now. No one wants to sell low run programs, but customers demand aircraft for a need. If that need is a small subset of a much larger program within the industry, it forces companies to continue offering the product. Both Airbus and Boeing would love to kill certain portions of their programs, but the customers can support or kill those plans. The Max program got "lucky" with the -7, Airbus and the A319 not such much. The 19 will limp on, just as the -7 will limp to the finish line as well. From an aerospace supplier's prospective, limping along is an industry norm.
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:28 am

Noshow wrote:
IIRC there were long time plans to use the A319 as a platform for some military P-8 style aircraft. Maybe this ship has sailed but at least for the ACJ business the A319neo might come in handy.

The most recent proposal from 2018 used the A320neo as a basis for a maritime patrol aircraft (MPA). Both the A320/A319 have been proposed in the past as a MPA but lost to the P-8 in sales campaigns and were obviously never developed. I think interior space was the biggest knock against the proposed A319MPA in the past-the P-8’s larger cabin was very attractive.
 
Clydenairways
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:44 am

The A319 NEO will not be a big seller, but i think a trickle of ACJ orders will keep it being offered by Airbus. Also OP i'm not sure why you need to post a large image so much in your posts? A lot of times it doesn't seem to have much of a purpose.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:48 pm

9252fly wrote:
I'll express the view that Airbus will continue offering and producing the A319 and A221/3 for many years to come. The question is, what's their long game? I foresee a A225 and A322 in the future. If I'm wrong, oh well.

As the old saying goes, follow the money. Airbus has said Airbus Canada is expected to be not require more funding from the parent corporation and A225 will be considered once the A220 program is commercially viable. I think that can eventually happen, but clearly covid has kicked the timeline back a bit. I think A319 will be offered as long as the rest of the family is offered, and I think the A320 family will outlive the A220. I view A220 as Airbus's MD95/717: an interesting side project that will always lose out internally to the bread and butter A32x, and most airlines who do their diligence will find that to be daunting.

Noshow wrote:
IIRC there were long time plans to use the A319 as a platform for some military P-8 style aircraft. Maybe this ship has sailed but at least for the ACJ business the A319neo might come in handy.

While we see P-8 and Wedgetail are successful, they were designed over a decade ago and it seems militaries are now favoring bizjets for C3I and patrol roles. It also provides convenient cover for buying bizjets to fly the brass around. I'm not sure we'll see a lot of airliner based C3I/patrol types going forward.
 
stratable
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:19 pm

I think offering the A319neo is not a big deal for Airbus. If it gets too expensive, they'll hand down the costs to prospective customers who might then just take A320s, A220s, or switch to Boeing. However, right now the plane is certified, can be easily produced so why not keep it in the portfolio for now.
For an ultra low-cost carrier like Spirit fleet commonality is important. Many legacy carriers such as Air France and Air Canada chose the A220 to replace older A318/319/A320s even operating mixed fleets. The A220-300 has 564 total orders with 114 delivered, the 319neo has 73 orders with 3 deliveries (as per Wikipedia). The A220-300 clearly is the more in-demand airplane. But there might be carriers like Spirit that will take commonality over lower CASM.
 
CFBFrame
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:30 pm

@Revelation - you are always on point. The A220 family has certainly not resulted in anything anybody hoped for. Maybe Boeing understood the concerns of Bombardier more than they understood their internal concerns of rushing the Max to market? Sometimes without program baggage, major corporations do make good decisions? Maybe it's the baggage that keeps programs going and not what we see as disjointed decision making? Think about this, if Boeing had said, we are going to buy Bombardier and use it as our platform for the next generation narrow body program, and we are going to give up on the Max 10 and make an effective solution for the mid market, would a different market opportunity exist for Airbus too? But baggage enabled this conversation, and it is enabling aerospace programs to limp along. At this point all of those programs would be flying, and the wasted costs to support the current programs would have certainly covered the development costs!!! Be smart, if something does not work be smart and quick about your decisions. Coming from the guy who wanted to kill the A321 program.
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:44 pm

1909 NEO's have been delivered today, of which 3 are A319NEOs, ACJs, spread out over 3 years. More disruption than added value.

A319NEO offers less payload than an A320NEO and 3750NM range instead of the A320s 3500NM. Leave a few seatrows open and the niche is even smaller. It costs Airbus probably more to build an A319NEO than an A320NEO. (Off standard sections, rigs, tools, piping, wiring, landing gears, interiors).

Ding, ding, ding, reality check.

Sense already seems to catch up with us, with Frontier this week retiring all their A319s and converting all their A319NEO's to bigger NEO versions. Not many orders left without Frontier, mostly unidentifieds.. Apparently someone must update the orders overview..
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:05 pm

keesje wrote:
1909 NEO's have been delivered today, of which 3 are A319NEOs, ACJs, spread out over 3 years. More disruption than added value.

A319NEO offers less payload than an A320NEO and 3750NM range instead of the A320s 3500NM. Leave a few seatrows open and the niche is even smaller. It costs Airbus probably more to build an A319NEO than an A320NEO. (Off standard sections, rigs, tools, piping, wiring, landing gears, interiors).

Ding, ding, ding, reality check.

Sense already seems to catch up with us, with Frontier this week retiring all their A319s and converting all their A319NEO's to bigger NEO versions. Not many orders left without Frontier, mostly unidentifieds.. Apparently someone must update the orders overview..

Again, how disruptive is it to build an A319 versus building an A320? The supply chain is already honed to nearly perfection and has accepted the low volume of A319neo-specific parts (which, again, what are they and how different are they from a manufacturing point of view? No one has answered that yet).
Ding ding ding, reality is that Airbus and OEMs have accepted the A319neo and will continue to sell and manufacture it.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:14 pm

keesje wrote:
1909 NEO's have been delivered today, of which 3 are A319NEOs, ACJs, spread out over 3 years. More disruption than added value.

A319NEO offers less payload than an A320NEO and 3750NM range instead of the A320s 3500NM. Leave a few seatrows open and the niche is even smaller. It costs Airbus probably more to build an A319NEO than an A320NEO. (Off standard sections, rigs, tools, piping, wiring, landing gears, interiors).

Ding, ding, ding, reality check.

Sense already seems to catch up with us, with Frontier this week retiring all their A319s and converting all their A319NEO's to bigger NEO versions. Not many orders left without Frontier, mostly unidentifieds.. Apparently someone must update the orders overview..

Link for Frontier, they don't say anything about the A319NEO, just that their fleet is going to A320NEO and A321NEO, I know not the best source:
https://simpleflying.com/frontier-a319-retired/

Now that Airbus has the A223, only Spirit Airlines is the only major order:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... deliveries

Since the Wikipedia pages disagree, I am curious as to Spirit's plans for the A319NEO. I agree, the A318NEO adds production cost at this time. That said, enough are under contract, it is too late.

Lightsaber
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:35 pm

keesje wrote:
Sense already seems to catch up with us, with Frontier this week retiring all their A319s and converting all their A319NEO's to bigger NEO versions. Not many orders left without Frontier, mostly unidentifieds.. Apparently someone must update the orders overview..

Frontier hasn’t had the A319Neo on order for almost 4 years now.
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:04 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
CFBFrame wrote:
The A319NEO and the 737-7MAX face the same issue, they are application based and not market based?


Hardly. Other than Spirit, there are no meaningful orders for 319neos, and only orders for 73 total.

There are 234 orders for the 737-7 from WN alone, the bluest of blue chip customers, which ordered MAX 7s and didn't even regard A220s as being worth an RFP.


I have to wonder how closely WN worked with Boeing on the MAX 7 (the MAX 7 is designed for 3 flight attendants at a 32" seat pitch, which is what the standard seat pitch is for WN on its -800s and MAX 8s); however, the A319 is only a 12-foot shrink of the A320. The other issue with the A319 is that customers have some rather new frames not needing replacement yet. However, they will come over time. I would be surprised if airlines like LH, SK, AY, and the IAG group don't consider the A319neo (the ship has sailed for AF) down the line (AA got a heap of A319s in the 2010s). Another wild card could be UA, which just recently bought and leased some secondhand A319s. They could be a candidate for the A19N as well.
 
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Polot
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:07 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
CFBFrame wrote:
The A319NEO and the 737-7MAX face the same issue, they are application based and not market based?


Hardly. Other than Spirit, there are no meaningful orders for 319neos, and only orders for 73 total.

There are 234 orders for the 737-7 from WN alone, the bluest of blue chip customers, which ordered MAX 7s and didn't even regard A220s as being worth an RFP.


I have to wonder how closely WN worked with Boeing on the MAX 7 (the MAX 7 is designed for 3 flight attendants at a 32" seat pitch, which is what the standard seat pitch is for WN on its -800s and MAX 8s)


The Max7 redesign was basically tailored for Southwest as Boeing knew they would likely be among the only major customer.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:50 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I have to wonder how closely WN worked with Boeing on the MAX 7 (the MAX 7 is designed for 3 flight attendants at a 32" seat pitch, which is what the standard seat pitch is for WN on its -800s and MAX 8s)...


I may regard you as optimistic that WN will start to replace its 461 737-700s as of 6/30/2021, (Evolved down to 31" starting in 2012) with 32" pitch MAX 7s. I would sooner bet they squeeze in 158+ seats. Yes, U.S. carriers have added the 4th FA for just 7-10 seats - AA, DL, UA, AS and B6 have all done it within the last decade, some on multiple types.

But your point that some 320neo/321neo operators will eventually operate 319neos? Yes, I believe that is probable. Think of carriers who don't want the complexity of another type but with a portfolio of thin routes where they just can't fill the extra seats to cover the higher trip cost of a larger frame. Whether that winds up being 100 new sales of 319neos or 300, I wouldn't predict.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:32 pm

keesje wrote:
The A319NEO seems alive because of Spirits order. Forming ~1% of the NEO orderbook isn't a good place.

In similar cases (A350-800/ 787-3) A/B were able to negotiate customers to convert to more popular variants.

Avoiding the non recurring cost of the unique version and it's live long maintenance / services costs & complications.

All A319NEO customers have large A320NEO orders. Only a few A319 ACJ order are made, converting those to A320 ACJ's seems negotiable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... y_customer

Image

Source: https://airbus-h.assetsadobe2.com/is/im ... =png-alpha

With the A223 becoming available also, I assume Airbus will try to negotiate all A319NEO's order into A320NEO's, they probably are busy doing so.

An airline like Spirit flies A319s close to 150 seats, they probably don't want the addition A320 space, weight, crew costs for specific routes, let alone a new type like the A223.

But often things can be negotiated if it''s all about the money. Operators/ lessors also don't like to own orphans with little rest value and unique maintenance requirements.



As the only real difference is that it has fewer frames it is not an issue. Guessing Spirit wants to keep its common pilot pool over a slightly better fuel burn. Much lower Cost for the airline & zero added cost to build on Airbus side.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:46 pm

Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Sense already seems to catch up with us, with Frontier this week retiring all their A319s and converting all their A319NEO's to bigger NEO versions. Not many orders left without Frontier, mostly unidentifieds.. Apparently someone must update the orders overview..

Frontier hasn’t had the A319Neo on order for almost 4 years now.

Indeed, 1,400 days to be exact ( https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontier-a ... -aircraft/ ) and in that time Airbus went on to get A319neo certified with both CFM and PW engines, all the time knowing Frontier would not be taking any in their initial tranche. Seems the Frontier A319neo order conversion is not as disruptive as portrayed. It wouldn't surprise me if Frontier eventually decides that they want some A319neos for various routes that aren't supporting the bigger family members.
 
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ADent
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:19 pm

Revelation wrote:
As the old saying goes, follow the money. Airbus has said Airbus Canada is expected to be not require more funding from the parent corporation and A225 will be considered once the A220 program is commercially viable. I think that can eventually happen, but clearly covid has kicked the timeline back a bit.

I saw an article saying the contracts for the A221/A223 are pretty well set with original Bombardier terms and it may take doing an A225 to break free and change things up.

Not sure if that is good or bad for A225 future, but it is bad for slashing prices of the A223.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:13 am

keesje wrote:
MEA-707 wrote:
Also it's good to offer a family of aircraft, even if the smallest or the largest don't sell well. Let's say the A319neo is cancelled now, perhaps the few airlines who want them, like Spirit or China Southern, could switch all future narrowody orders to Boeing instead because they can fullfill their needs for 150 to 220 seaters with one type with the same overhaul and cockpit procedures.


I think "doesn't sell well" is a bit of an euphemism for the A319NEO (50 aircraft?). The backlog has been shrinking for years & now #1 customer Spirit, the SWA of A319NEO, is converting their orders to bigger NEO's.

- Spirit has 170 A320s in service, a growing number of NEOs on order and is reducing / coverting it's A319NEO order, without taking any.
- China Southern has hundreds of A320CEOs and NEOs in service/ on order, of which 2(!) A319NEO's, ordered in 2013.
- The only other customer is Air Côte d'Ivoire, with 3 NEO's on order, of which 2 A319NEO, ordered 5 years ago.

The A319NEO looks feasible as long as we don't look at the real numbers & ignore typical orphan fleet costs and issues (depreciation, resale value, sustainment costs, economies of (no) scale)). E.g. engines, landing gears, can't be exchanged with A320's. We are looking at maintenance and availability challenges compared to A320 and 737-8s. That's why nobody is buying them & converting them while they can.

Not a bad aircraft, but the changed market situation caught up with it and Airbus is not in the business of niche products. They have 5000 A320/321NEO's to be delivered, the XLR complicating the supply chain. They can probably do without a few dozen customized A319s disrupting the production flows.

But we will see, specially what the few A319 customers will do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... y_customer


There are also a lot of A319ceo's with low cycles still flyable and paid off. Most airlines with 737-700 or A319's have been more interested in replacing their older A320ceo's with neo's first as the other fleets are still young. The main reason the 737-600 did not sell is due to the 737-50o's in service being to young while the 736 was starting sales.
 
XRadar98
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:31 am

oldannyboy wrote:

On a side note, as a purely personal opinion (and preference), while the A220 has amazing looks and indeed looks sexy as hell, I still prefer flying on an A319, with its big, fat fuselage, than on an A220, which honestly I don't find particularly comfortable... aside from the big oval windows, I totally fail to see how 5-across seating is this formidable panacea for in-flight comfort.....


I am curious, why would 3/2 seating as opposed to 3/3 seating seem less comfortable? My preference would be to pick the two side, as I only travel with my wife, and the fight for the armrest is friendly. We don’t have that choice on any 3/3 aircraft, except for grabbing WN exit row seats.
 
9252fly
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:04 am

ADent wrote:
Revelation wrote:
As the old saying goes, follow the money. Airbus has said Airbus Canada is expected to be not require more funding from the parent corporation and A225 will be considered once the A220 program is commercially viable. I think that can eventually happen, but clearly covid has kicked the timeline back a bit.

I saw an article saying the contracts for the A221/A223 are pretty well set with original Bombardier terms and it may take doing an A225 to break free and change things up.

Not sure if that is good or bad for A225 future, but it is bad for slashing prices of the A223.


Gosh, all the endless doom and gloom on the A220. I think they've reached enough critical mass with the program, they just need to keep hammering away at costs and efficiencies. It's no stepchild B717; too many orders and operators now. It's like the movie Field Of Dreams, 'if you build it they will come'...A225.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:29 am

XRadar98 wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:

On a side note, as a purely personal opinion (and preference), while the A220 has amazing looks and indeed looks sexy as hell, I still prefer flying on an A319, with its big, fat fuselage, than on an A220, which honestly I don't find particularly comfortable... aside from the big oval windows, I totally fail to see how 5-across seating is this formidable panacea for in-flight comfort.....


I am curious, why would 3/2 seating as opposed to 3/3 seating seem less comfortable? My preference would be to pick the two side, as I only travel with my wife, and the fight for the armrest is friendly. We don’t have that choice on any 3/3 aircraft, except for grabbing WN exit row seats.


there is also the wider seat to consider.

FLALEFTY wrote:
Both airlines have important hot/high/short runway markets that would benefit from the A319N's better airfield performance than the larger, A320N. Also, the A319N fits in with both airlines' existing A32X pilot pool & maintenance programs.


I don´t think Airbus needs to keep the A319 for field performance from a competitive perspective, since the A320 with the SHARP Kit happily flies of the 1.323 m runway at SDU, and given this thread viewtopic.php?t=1366035 i would not be surprised if it outperforms the 737-7 of a short/hot/high field.

best regards
Thomas
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:40 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
XRadar98 wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:



I don´t think Airbus needs to keep the A319 for field performance from a competitive perspective, since the A320 with the SHARP Kit happily flies of the 1.323 m runway at SDU, and given this thread viewtopic.php?t=1366035 i would not be surprised if it outperforms the 737-7 of a short/hot/high field.

best regards
Thomas


You are correct, Azul has SHARP-kitted A320N's flying out of SDU and GOL has a short-field kit on the B738's they fly there, too. SDU is a sea-level airfield with reinforced runways that can accommodate high gross weights, especially when it comes to absorbing the occasional hard landings. A majority of SDU flights are fairly short, typically less than 2 hours, so the airlines using the SDU don't have to worry about dispatching near MTOW.

By comparison, a popular AA A319 market that is similar to SDU is EYW, which is (barely) 5,000 ft., but is only 100' wide. EYW can only handle double-wheel gross weights up to 125,000 lbs.. Given the weight limitations, the A320N will be at up to a 3,800 lb. payload disadvantage compared to the A319N operating out of EYW.

Another popular, but problematic airport is EGE, which is at roughly 6,500' in altitude and surrounded by higher terrain. Operating from this field requires very strong hot/high climb performance. For this reason, AA flies the A319 here year-round, but they used to supplement a flight or two with their now-retired B752's (which have outstanding hot/high performance due to their powerful engines).
 
Okcflyer
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:09 pm

It’s also possible that their contract with CFM lists the A319neo and if they were to prematurely retire it, they owe concessions to CFM.

As discussed, most airlines in the World don’t have the size/scale to economically have different operational programs for A223 and A320/321. Literally nothing on the A220 is common the A320 series, except for a handful of engine parts which are of least concern.

Commercially: Airbus won’t want to compete against the MAX7 with an A320 as doing so would give up a lot of margin.

Finally, in many case, the A223 just isn’t that much better than MAX or A319neo. Where it is better (short hops), utilization is typically low and classic frames (A319/A320ceo/737/738) are very competitive for a lot less capital investment.

Somewhere around 1500sm, the A319neo burns less fuel than the A223.
 
VV
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:37 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
....

Somewhere around 1500sm, the A319neo burns less fuel than the A223.


Is that true?
 
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NearMiss
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:07 pm

What about Druk Air and Bhutan Airlines? Can they replace their fleets with the A319NEO?
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:27 pm

NearMiss wrote:
What about Druk Air and Bhutan Airlines? Can they replace their fleets with the A319NEO?


DrukAir already has the A320neo.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:02 pm

scbriml wrote:
When Airbus acquired the C-Series they said they were going to stop actively marketing the A319 and push the A220 instead. However, they said the A319 would still be available for customers that really wanted it (including ACJ).


Did Airbus say that or did A.Net imply that as forum participants gazed into their collective crystal ball?
 
texl1649
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:04 pm

9252fly wrote:
ADent wrote:
Revelation wrote:
As the old saying goes, follow the money. Airbus has said Airbus Canada is expected to be not require more funding from the parent corporation and A225 will be considered once the A220 program is commercially viable. I think that can eventually happen, but clearly covid has kicked the timeline back a bit.

I saw an article saying the contracts for the A221/A223 are pretty well set with original Bombardier terms and it may take doing an A225 to break free and change things up.

Not sure if that is good or bad for A225 future, but it is bad for slashing prices of the A223.


Gosh, all the endless doom and gloom on the A220. I think they've reached enough critical mass with the program, they just need to keep hammering away at costs and efficiencies. It's no stepchild B717; too many orders and operators now. It's like the movie Field Of Dreams, 'if you build it they will come'...A225.


LOL, no, the DC-9 line in Long Beach had printed cash for Douglas et. al for 4+ decades. The A220 ran BBD out of commercial aviation, and was at best a risky $1 dollar investment to Airbus.

The easiest answer to OP's question is that Airbus sees a benefit to maintaining a complete family as contractually they might be obligated across the A320 series, and that many customers simply have no interest in the...vastly different A220. No common type rating, essentially no common maintenance items, and very little to no profit for A. If they ever do launch an A321.5+ etc. then maybe they'll stop actively offering the pax A319NEO. That A318's were parted out after 15+ years is not necessarily Airbus' big concern looking forward to the mid 2020's and beyond.

As has been documented elsewhere, sometimes engines are swapped down from A321's to smaller family members, also...and the A220 engines are mounted differently so there's no such benefit to looking to that as a sub-fleet. Which is probably why the C-series wasn't worth a single dollar when Boeing looked at it.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:21 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
scbriml wrote:
When Airbus acquired the C-Series they said they were going to stop actively marketing the A319 and push the A220 instead. However, they said the A319 would still be available for customers that really wanted it (including ACJ).


Did Airbus say that or did A.Net imply that as forum participants gazed into their collective crystal ball?


Yes they did, but I’m damned if I can find it now. I’m still looking…
 
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Revelation
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:31 pm

scbriml wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
scbriml wrote:
When Airbus acquired the C-Series they said they were going to stop actively marketing the A319 and push the A220 instead. However, they said the A319 would still be available for customers that really wanted it (including ACJ).

Did Airbus say that or did A.Net imply that as forum participants gazed into their collective crystal ball?

Yes they did, but I’m damned if I can find it now. I’m still looking…

I'm also looking but not finding.

I did find your post from three years ago showing the positioning of that era:

Image

Ref: viewtopic.php?t=1398921#p20554169

And a similar statement from the same time frame from Airbus:

Airbus does not believe the A220-300 will cannibalize A319 sales. Bob Lange, senior v-p business analysis and market forecast, acknowledged that the aircraft are similar in size but noted the A319 “flies farther, performs better in hot and high airfields, and can carry containerized cargo.” He added, “In addition, several European majors operate the A319, A320, and A321 and they allocate according to demand on that flight. There will be continued demand for the A319. It might not be particularly high, but we can live with that.”

Ref: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ries-brand

All the statements I found are along the same lines, A319neo and A220 have their own roles to fill.

Even if there is a statement we haven't located saying Airbus will favor A220 over A319 in head to head competitions, we have yet to read anything from Airbus casting doubt on "the Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio", so the main narrative of this thread is not substantiated in any way.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:33 pm

scbriml wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
scbriml wrote:
When Airbus acquired the C-Series they said they were going to stop actively marketing the A319 and push the A220 instead. However, they said the A319 would still be available for customers that really wanted it (including ACJ).


Did Airbus say that or did A.Net imply that as forum participants gazed into their collective crystal ball?


Yes they did, but I’m damned if I can find it now. I’m still looking…


You are right ! I found an article from 2017 in German ( sorry )
https://www.aero.de/news-27733/Airbus-bevorzugt-CSeries-vor-A319.html
and the headline says it all (translated) :
Airbus prefers CSeries over A319

and
Airbus will "definitely" push the CS300 at the expense of its own A319neo, which is roughly the same size, said the head of aircraft manufacturer Tom Enders
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:21 am

oldJoe wrote:
scbriml wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

Did Airbus say that or did A.Net imply that as forum participants gazed into their collective crystal ball?


Yes they did, but I’m damned if I can find it now. I’m still looking…


You are right ! I found an article from 2017 in German ( sorry )
https://www.aero.de/news-27733/Airbus-bevorzugt-CSeries-vor-A319.html
and the headline says it all (translated) :
Airbus prefers CSeries over A319

and
Airbus will "definitely" push the CS300 at the expense of its own A319neo, which is roughly the same size, said the head of aircraft manufacturer Tom Enders


Yup! They said it. Interesting.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:48 am

smartplane wrote:
keesje wrote:
The A319 has unique weights, loads, fatique, development and sub assemblies, engines, landing gears, etc etc.
To keep those in the air for 25 years, including unique maintenance programs, training, spare parts is something every operators would like to avoid.

Apparently nearly half the A319NEO backlog is unidentified and #1 customer Spirit has conversion rights.

A first A319NEO is ready for China Southern after waiting 8 months in Hamburg. They have another 1 on order the article says.
https://simpleflying.com/first-passenge ... s-a319neo/

It now seems Spirit has "swapped some of its A319neo orders for larger variants".
https://www.airguide.info/uss-spirit-ai ... l-a321neo/

Every A319NEO might be money in the bank short term. But if 25 yr support costs and supply chain / assembly disruption are included, Airbus might be happy to selll you a A320NEO at the price you got for your A319NEOs. To save everybody costs. They can do without another A318..

The World has changed. No OEM today will likely support a commercial aircraft, 25 years beyond end of production, for reasons of cost, liability, insurance, emissions, new sales, image.................

Some canny early adopters and especially end of production customers negotiate an OEM support clause period, as this helps protect residuals. Doubt you will find any now greater than 20 years at start, and less at end. OEM's would rather include a diminishing buyback formula.

Probably more risk of A220-100 support ending in less than 25 years than A319NEO

Until the A220 and A320 family share a common cockpit, customers with cash in hand, will determine the end of A319NEO production, especially as every A220 loses Airbus money, and every A319NEO doesn't.


There is no way the two will share the same cockpit, different FBW laws, different avionics. That’s too much to recertify.
 
smartplane
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:37 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
smartplane wrote:
keesje wrote:
The A319 has unique weights, loads, fatique, development and sub assemblies, engines, landing gears, etc etc.
To keep those in the air for 25 years, including unique maintenance programs, training, spare parts is something every operators would like to avoid.

Apparently nearly half the A319NEO backlog is unidentified and #1 customer Spirit has conversion rights.

A first A319NEO is ready for China Southern after waiting 8 months in Hamburg. They have another 1 on order the article says.
https://simpleflying.com/first-passenge ... s-a319neo/

It now seems Spirit has "swapped some of its A319neo orders for larger variants".
https://www.airguide.info/uss-spirit-ai ... l-a321neo/

Every A319NEO might be money in the bank short term. But if 25 yr support costs and supply chain / assembly disruption are included, Airbus might be happy to selll you a A320NEO at the price you got for your A319NEOs. To save everybody costs. They can do without another A318..

The World has changed. No OEM today will likely support a commercial aircraft, 25 years beyond end of production, for reasons of cost, liability, insurance, emissions, new sales, image.................

Some canny early adopters and especially end of production customers negotiate an OEM support clause period, as this helps protect residuals. Doubt you will find any now greater than 20 years at start, and less at end. OEM's would rather include a diminishing buyback formula.

Probably more risk of A220-100 support ending in less than 25 years than A319NEO

Until the A220 and A320 family share a common cockpit, customers with cash in hand, will determine the end of A319NEO production, especially as every A220 loses Airbus money, and every A319NEO doesn't.


There is no way the two will share the same cockpit, different FBW laws, different avionics. That’s too much to recertify.

Are you sure Airbus hasn't done the numbers?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:32 am

oldJoe wrote:
scbriml wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

Did Airbus say that or did A.Net imply that as forum participants gazed into their collective crystal ball?


Yes they did, but I’m damned if I can find it now. I’m still looking…


You are right ! I found an article from 2017 in German ( sorry )
https://www.aero.de/news-27733/Airbus-bevorzugt-CSeries-vor-A319.html
and the headline says it all (translated) :
Airbus prefers CSeries over A319

and
Airbus will "definitely" push the CS300 at the expense of its own A319neo, which is roughly the same size, said the head of aircraft manufacturer Tom Enders


Thank you! I was beginning to doubt my sanity for a while there.
 
wakymike
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 am

oldJoe wrote:
scbriml wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

Did Airbus say that or did A.Net imply that as forum participants gazed into their collective crystal ball?


Yes they did, but I’m damned if I can find it now. I’m still looking…


You are right ! I found an article from 2017 in German ( sorry )
https://www.aero.de/news-27733/Airbus-bevorzugt-CSeries-vor-A319.html
and the headline says it all (translated) :
Airbus prefers CSeries over A319

and
Airbus will "definitely" push the CS300 at the expense of its own A319neo, which is roughly the same size, said the head of aircraft manufacturer Tom Enders


2017, that's a looooong time ago. I'm convinced the A319neo will get some decent sales in future. Given the fact that Spirit, which is an ULCC, preferred the A319neo over the A220, i'm assuming that for most A320 operators it's wiser to operate the A319neo at the bottom end than to switch to a totally different type.
 
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:51 am

Whilst I admire Keesje's enthusiasm and share his love of aviation, when it comes down to the nuts and bolts of it, it does show that he's an outsider with only limited knowledge of the industry and, indeed, the art of building aeroplanes.

So let me make this clear once and for all: There is no major differences between the A319 and A320; the gears are the same (yes, SAME), the structure, the engines, the entire construction and the way they're bolted together - it's all the exact same. So from a production point of view it makes no difference to Airbus whatsoever whether LN 10001 is an A319 and LN 10002 is an A320. Zip, zilch, nada, nothing.

As such the A319 will remain on offer for as long as there's someone interested in buying one. It might very well be that it will only ever appear in ACJ form, and Airbus are absolutely fine with that; it's one more sale for them and one less sale for the BBJ. It also offers a more than viable alternative to the Max 7, thereby forcing Boeing to sell that model very, very close to cost in order to stay competitive.

Are Airbus more keen on pushing the A220 than the A319? Absolutely, but only because the A32x program is already hugely successful and profitable and they have a hard time meeting demand, whereas the situation is nowhere near as rosy for the A220.
 
texl1649
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:59 am

smartplane wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
smartplane wrote:
The World has changed. No OEM today will likely support a commercial aircraft, 25 years beyond end of production, for reasons of cost, liability, insurance, emissions, new sales, image.................

Some canny early adopters and especially end of production customers negotiate an OEM support clause period, as this helps protect residuals. Doubt you will find any now greater than 20 years at start, and less at end. OEM's would rather include a diminishing buyback formula.

Probably more risk of A220-100 support ending in less than 25 years than A319NEO

Until the A220 and A320 family share a common cockpit, customers with cash in hand, will determine the end of A319NEO production, especially as every A220 loses Airbus money, and every A319NEO doesn't.


There is no way the two will share the same cockpit, different FBW laws, different avionics. That’s too much to recertify.

Are you sure Airbus hasn't done the numbers?


They're losing money on it at least thru 2025, I'm sure they're not keen on re-engineering the whole thing for a new type certificate for commonality with the A320. LOL.
 
VV
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:56 am

smartplane wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

There is no way the two will share the same cockpit, different FBW laws, different avionics. That’s too much to recertify.

Are you sure Airbus hasn't done the numbers?


I will answer to the question.
Yes, I am 100% sure.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:25 pm

VV wrote:
smartplane wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

There is no way the two will share the same cockpit, different FBW laws, different avionics. That’s too much to recertify.

Are you sure Airbus hasn't done the numbers?


I will answer to the question.
Yes, I am 100% sure.

You have insider information?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:09 pm

texl1649 wrote:
They're losing money on it at least thru 2025, I'm sure they're not keen on re-engineering the whole thing for a new type certificate for commonality with the A320. LOL.

The earlier post about about the YMX pre-FAL and switching over to Airbus pre-stuffed fuselage standards suggests that they've pretty much re-engineered the production line. I guess they see a positive ROI on that investment, or at least not losing as much money if they hadn't made the changes. We had Airbus's statements saying they expect the A220 to support itself financially going forward. To me this suggests it will be a while till we see future investments, especially while they work through the early orders made when BBD still controlled the program and was highly motivated to establish it.

brindabella wrote:
The 737-7 will still need other orders to be an overall success; however the scale of WN likely orders probably makes that judgement moot in any case.

I feel we can be sure MAX7 is already a success, or will be one presuming all the current WN orders are filled. Just like the rationale given in #91 above, MAX7 is now just a MAX8 shrink whereas in the NG generation and earlier it really had a bunch of unique components designed for the lighter and smaller family members.
 
VV
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:10 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
VV wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Are you sure Airbus hasn't done the numbers?


I will answer to the question.
Yes, I am 100% sure.

You have insider information?

I do not even remember what that was all about, but yes, I am sure about it.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:31 pm

Discuss the topic, not other users.

If a post violates forum rules, please flag it.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:02 pm

VV wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
VV wrote:

I will answer to the question.
Yes, I am 100% sure.

You have insider information?

I do not even remember what that was all about, but yes, I am sure about it.

So, you're sure Airbus hasn't punched in the numbers and make decisions "just like that"?
Airbus has a fiduciary duty to its shareholders to make decisions after a financial analysis. Whether that analysis makes sense to you or not, that's another story; but Airbus has done it and found a good basis to their decision, regardless whether it turns out to be true or not, profitable of not, but it was done.
 
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keesje
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:21 pm

Spirit has nearly half the A319 backlog (73); 35. They have taken 0 and say they are betting on the A320NEO and A321NEO though.
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/s ... 24.article

Of the remaining 38, 30 are for "undisclosed" and 6 are ACJ's of which 3 delivered. The 2 A319NEO's for China Southern seem to have evaporated in August !! One was already painted last year & ready for delivery.
(https://simpleflying.com/first-passenge ... s-a319neo/).

Cote d'Ivor still has 2 A319NEOs on order. They are now launcing customer together with Undisclosed. https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corp ... craft.xlsx

So if Spirit does what they say & undisclosed is what it is, the A319NEO backlog is pretty questionable to say the least(excuse me Cote d'Ivore). But anything can happen in the future..

:hypnotized:
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Sat Sep 18, 2021 5:51 am

Like the A320, the A319 could've used a two row stretch when they went NEO. It would not have sold great, but probably at least some. In hindsight there would've been less overlap with the A223 as well.
 
VV
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Re: Future of the A319NEO in Airbus portfolio

Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:43 am

Taxi645 wrote:
Like the A320, the A319 could've used a two row stretch when they went NEO. It would not have sold great, but probably at least some. In hindsight there would've been less overlap with the A223 as well.


I think you are right.

Boeing decided to move up by stretching the 737-7 and also by offering the 737-10.

The A319neo and the A320neo should have been stretched by about two seat rows.

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