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346fetish
Topic Author
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Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:00 am

Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:44 pm

Here are the latest network changes from Flair:

September
• YULYXX removed from schedule

September-October
• YOWYXX and YLWYOW removed from schedule
• YOWYYC 3x/wk to 1x/wk

September forward
• YQUYYZ, YKFYLW, YOWYYZ and YQUYVR removed from schedule
• YKFYYC 4x/wk to 3x/wk
• YKFYYJ 3x/wk to 1x/wk

October forward
• YVRYXS removed from schedule
• YEGYVR increased 6x/wk to 8x/wk

November forward
• YOWYXX 2x/wk to 1x/wk

Things don't seem to be going as planned for them.
Last edited by 346fetish on Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
EcuaCan
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:53 pm

I can't see how they're making money. I'm flying YOW-YVR with them in November for $121 round-trip. That can't be sustainable.
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1706
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 6:11 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:36 pm

346fetish wrote:
Here are the latest network changes from Flair:

September
• YULYXX removed from schedule

September-October
• YOWYXX and YLWYOW removed from schedule
• YOWYYC 3x/wk to 1x/wk

September forward
• YQUYYZ, YKFYLW, YOWYYZ and YQUYVR removed from schedule
• YKFYYC 4x/wk to 3x/wk
• YKFYYJ 3x/wk to 1x/wk

October forward
• YVRYXS removed from schedule
• YEGYVR increased 6x/wk to 8x/wk

November forward
• YOWYXX 2x/wk to 1x/wk

Things don't seem to be going as planned for them.


That all seems to be transitioning from summer to winter sked, no surprise really….
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:45 am

https://ipolitics.ca/2021/10/04/lobby-w ... om-ottawa/

Flair Airlines, a budget airline that launched in Canada in 2017, is looking to the government for financial help in the wake of the fourth wave of the pandemic. In the last two months, Flair cancelled several flights, including two in Halifax that left travellers without hotel accommodations, transportation, or food vouchers, which led Flair CEO Stephen Jones to apologize.

Flair is meeting with Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), Canadian Transportation Agency (CTA), Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario (FedDev), Finance Canada (FIN), among other departments seeking economic assistance for the airline.

So much for the deep pockets of 777 partners…
Last edited by cirrusdragoon on Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Cardude2
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:51 am

Oh dear this is not good
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:31 am

Cardude2 wrote:
Oh dear this is not good

On a reported $140 million dollar loan of 18% interest as well...

https://biv.com/article/2021/07/lawsuit ... nsion-plan
 
CFWAD
Posts: 159
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:41 am

As a Canadian taxpayer, I find this beyond infuriating. Using foreign capital to fund a ridiculous, nonsensical and extremely high risk business plan during the most volatile period in aviation industry and when the plan flops, reach out and attempt abuse of federal COVID aid packages.
 
Chickapuss
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:30 am

EcuaCan wrote:
I can't see how they're making money. I'm flying YOW-YVR with them in November for $121 round-trip. That can't be sustainable.


I agree completely. As a resident of Ottawa (YOW), I get so annoyed when a start up begins operations from here only to serve the same markets that are already served many times a day from here, then add some markets that seem questionable. In this case YYZ (AC/WS/Porter/Via Rail/416-401), YYC (AC/WS) then YLW and YXX!! This helps this market minimally in my opinion. Even AC flies to YUL many times a day. You can take Via Rail to Dorval station or drive there on the 417. Having said what i said, I do applaud WS for trying Victoria 1xweek.

Before COVID hit, YOW was finally getting decent service to the US. I'm hoping that comes back in the coming months; especially LGA or at least EWR . And before anyone comments negatively on the YOW-LGA route, I can confirm that I took that flight a couple of times a year and each time the (initial 1xdaily CRJ-900, then 2xdaily CRJ-100/200) flights were full. IIRC, Delta was planning on increasing the 2x daily YOW-LGA Mon-Fri CRJ-100/200 service to 3xdaily starting in May 2020. If I can dig that up I will confirm that with you all.

I understand we are in difficult times for service in all markets and especially in the non-hub markets like YOW, I can only assume that before airlines restart service to the US from markets like YOW, there has to be in place, US immigration officers for the pre-clearance screening. If anyone in the forum has information on how that process affects the reintroduction of US bound flights from such markets, i would love for you to share your information/knowledge. Thank you! .
 
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TS-IOR
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:57 pm

And the question is why Canada as wide is.. can't handle multiple operators neither airlines or telecom or whatever..
 
9252fly
Posts: 1222
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:19 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:38 am

TS-IOR wrote:
And the question is why Canada as wide is.. can't handle multiple operators neither airlines or telecom or whatever..


Lack of population density outside of the major centers, sparsely populated otherwise.
 
nkops
Posts: 2302
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:09 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:59 am

Chickapuss wrote:
EcuaCan wrote:
I can't see how they're making money. I'm flying YOW-YVR with them in November for $121 round-trip. That can't be sustainable.


I agree completely. As a resident of Ottawa (YOW), I get so annoyed when a start up begins operations from here only to serve the same markets that are already served many times a day from here, then add some markets that seem questionable. In this case YYZ (AC/WS/Porter/Via Rail/416-401), YYC (AC/WS) then YLW and YXX!! This helps this market minimally in my opinion. Even AC flies to YUL many times a day. You can take Via Rail to Dorval station or drive there on the 417. Having said what i said, I do applaud WS for trying Victoria 1xweek.

Before COVID hit, YOW was finally getting decent service to the US. I'm hoping that comes back in the coming months; especially LGA or at least EWR . And before anyone comments negatively on the YOW-LGA route, I can confirm that I took that flight a couple of times a year and each time the (initial 1xdaily CRJ-900, then 2xdaily CRJ-100/200) flights were full. IIRC, Delta was planning on increasing the 2x daily YOW-LGA Mon-Fri CRJ-100/200 service to 3xdaily starting in May 2020. If I can dig that up I will confirm that with you all.

I understand we are in difficult times for service in all markets and especially in the non-hub markets like YOW, I can only assume that before airlines restart service to the US from markets like YOW, there has to be in place, US immigration officers for the pre-clearance screening. If anyone in the forum has information on how that process affects the reintroduction of US bound flights from such markets, i would love for you to share your information/knowledge. Thank you! .


I know Flair starts YOW-SFB on 12/16... they did delay the YKF-SFB start for some reason
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2404
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:34 pm

Chickapuss wrote:
EcuaCan wrote:
I can't see how they're making money. I'm flying YOW-YVR with them in November for $121 round-trip. That can't be sustainable.


I agree completely. As a resident of Ottawa (YOW), I get so annoyed when a start up begins operations from here only to serve the same markets that are already served many times a day from here, then add some markets that seem questionable. In this case YYZ (AC/WS/Porter/Via Rail/416-401), YYC (AC/WS) then YLW and YXX!! This helps this market minimally in my opinion. Even AC flies to YUL many times a day. You can take Via Rail to Dorval station or drive there on the 417. Having said what i said, I do applaud WS for trying Victoria 1xweek.

Before COVID hit, YOW was finally getting decent service to the US. I'm hoping that comes back in the coming months; especially LGA or at least EWR . And before anyone comments negatively on the YOW-LGA route, I can confirm that I took that flight a couple of times a year and each time the (initial 1xdaily CRJ-900, then 2xdaily CRJ-100/200) flights were full. IIRC, Delta was planning on increasing the 2x daily YOW-LGA Mon-Fri CRJ-100/200 service to 3xdaily starting in May 2020. If I can dig that up I will confirm that with you all.

I understand we are in difficult times for service in all markets and especially in the non-hub markets like YOW, I can only assume that before airlines restart service to the US from markets like YOW, there has to be in place, US immigration officers for the pre-clearance screening. If anyone in the forum has information on how that process affects the reintroduction of US bound flights from such markets, i would love for you to share your information/knowledge. Thank you! .


Anecdotally, I just ran into friends in YVR who flew over from YOW for a long weekend on Flair. They were clear that it was only possible because of Flair fares. Presumably there are similar cases of Flair creating an entire new market - people who wouldn’t travel otherwise.

Is it large enough? COVID is obviously making it hard to tell. Is it sustainable? FR, Spirit, Frontier etc show the the model works around the world. Why shouldn’t it work in Canada? I see some argue that Canada is different because of its size, citing telecoms amongst other things above. Incidentally, a Finnish study on global telecoms was released a few days ago; to no ones great surprise, Canada is the worst performer - not least because:

“ Among defenders of Canada’s high cellphone rates, one of the chief arguments is that the country’s size and decentralization inherently make cell service more expensive. Rewheel, however, has written that Canadian operators maintain far fewer cell towers per customer than those in the much cheaper Finnish market.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/ca ... ish-report

Suspect the take on aviation is the same - lots of longstanding mythology about Canadian market ‘exceptionalism’ that must never be challenged.

As to YOW routes, not sure how anyone can criticize Flair for its choice of routes. It has to fly to where YOW’s population wants to fly to, because YOW isn’t (and will never be) a destination in itself. It’s a third-rate town with no redeeming features - no character, extreme weather, one or two half-decent but wildly overpriced restaurants, and high entrance fee museums that are jokes compared to the free Smithsonians and British Museums of this world. YOW should frankly be thankful for any service it gets from anyone.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2404
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:36 pm

Seems Kitchener-Waterloo Airport is betting on Flair.

“ Chris Wood, the airport's general manager, said the ultra-low-cost model has been a "game changer."

"People are willing to drive to here from Toronto or London or Owen Sound to get a cheaper flight," said Wood.

Wood said about 35 per cent of people flying out of YKF are from outside the region and believes cheaper fares are the main motivation.

"It's not a surprise, we know it would work because [the low-cost model] works in every other country in the world — Canada was a late adopter," he said.

Up to a million passengers per year are expected to travel through the airport by 2023, up from 70,000 a year in 2019, according to the region's projections.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchene ... -1.6211146

Don’t know how Flair will fare, but sooner or later, one of these ULCCs will stick. 70,000 to 1,000,000 in four years would be quite something if it happens.
 
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IceCream
Posts: 236
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:46 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:42 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Seems Kitchener-Waterloo Airport is betting on Flair.

“ Chris Wood, the airport's general manager, said the ultra-low-cost model has been a "game changer."

"People are willing to drive to here from Toronto or London or Owen Sound to get a cheaper flight," said Wood.

Wood said about 35 per cent of people flying out of YKF are from outside the region and believes cheaper fares are the main motivation.

"It's not a surprise, we know it would work because [the low-cost model] works in every other country in the world — Canada was a late adopter," he said.

Up to a million passengers per year are expected to travel through the airport by 2023, up from 70,000 a year in 2019, according to the region's projections.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchene ... -1.6211146

Don’t know how Flair will fare, but sooner or later, one of these ULCCs will stick. 70,000 to 1,000,000 in four years would be quite something if it happens.

Fair! I wonder how the other airlines (AC/WS) feel about this. To be fair the people who seem to drive to YKF or take Flair flights seem to because it's their only option. I don't think a non-negligible amount of AC or WS passengers are moving over to Flair. It would be great to see those two airlines and a ULCC coexist.
 
Skywatcher
Posts: 981
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 11:19 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:30 am

I'm sure most of us here agree that Flair deserves kudos for taking a serious shot at being a legitimate player in the Canadian marketplace.
It's a tough task but hopefully they can carve out a sustainable niche.
There must be ways to slash costs that Air Canada and Westjet are unable to do (keep admin fat low/stock options instead of other benefits/outsouce big time/pick up cheap surplus equipment due to covid etc.)?
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3856
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:53 am

Skywatcher wrote:
I'm sure most of us here agree that Flair deserves kudos for taking a serious shot at being a legitimate player in the Canadian marketplace.
It's a tough task but hopefully they can carve out a sustainable niche.
There must be ways to slash costs that Air Canada and Westjet are unable to do (keep admin fat low/stock options instead of other benefits/outsouce big time/pick up cheap surplus equipment due to covid etc.)?

Unless Flair can quickly renegotiate and refinance their debt (they have a loan for $140 million USD at 18% interest, plus their main creditor is threatening to call in their loan, which would put them into receivership), they are in a lot of financial trouble down the line. I just don't see them as being financially viable anywhere past a year with that interest rate.

With how high landing fees are in general in Canada, plus NAV CANADA fees, taxes, aircraft leasing costs, fuel, I can't see them regularly turning a profit on their flights at the pricing strategy they are using, unless their flights are consistently booked full. Even then, it would be very thin margins just on operating costs alone, before stuff like payroll, credit card processing fees, and servicing their debt.
 
CFWAD
Posts: 159
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:56 am

I don't give Flair kudos for anything - let alone being a serious shot at being legitimate. What they are doing is putting their customers at risk of standing at an empty YKF counter one day, looking out to a 737-8 with no money left to fill its tanks. What they have done is brought in a bunch of people from outside of Canada who have had a decent run at other ULCCs but have zero understanding of the Canadian aviation landscape.

Costs from Abbotsford to Kitchener are one thing and one route. Taking a random look at Flightaware yesterday, many routes were through YVR, YYC, YYZ and YOW - not cheap airports.

They just recently had a sale to Burbank/Hollywood for 100% off the fare. I remember a previous Canadian LCC who infamously had "Loonie Sales", yet lasted ~2 years and 10 months.

As mentioned, Flair has done an incredible job of expansion in the last year, bringing on the 737-8 and launching routes across Canada. But what will happen when that $140 million gets burned through Canada's painfully slow shoulder season and then add the upcoming costly winter operations (not to mention increased fuel prices). And this is all happening before AC/PD/TS/WG/WS fully unleashes it's pre-covid fleet and routes.

Quite honestly, I see another shuffle by January (if they last). Steve Jones (CEO/President) and Garth Lund (COO) will be out and you will find the managing director at T7 Partners scouting out an ex-AC/WS or Swoop exec to fill the spot until the airline eventually drowns in their interest payments.

I have said before, Canadian Airport Improvement Fees alone are ridiculous (not to mention the Federal leases Airport Authorities in Canada are expected to pay annualy). Because they are hidden within the fare, the majority of the population are unfazed or unaware. Start charging $25CAD each time you go through YVR and I guarantee you people will start to question the need for an indoor rain forest when all they want to do is fly home to Ontario for under $200.
 
sxf24
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Oct 15, 2021 1:05 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Skywatcher wrote:
I'm sure most of us here agree that Flair deserves kudos for taking a serious shot at being a legitimate player in the Canadian marketplace.
It's a tough task but hopefully they can carve out a sustainable niche.
There must be ways to slash costs that Air Canada and Westjet are unable to do (keep admin fat low/stock options instead of other benefits/outsouce big time/pick up cheap surplus equipment due to covid etc.)?

Unless Flair can quickly renegotiate and refinance their debt (they have a loan for $140 million USD at 18% interest, plus their main creditor is threatening to call in their loan, which would put them into receivership), they are in a lot of financial trouble down the line. I just don't see them as being financially viable anywhere past a year with that interest rate.

With how high landing fees are in general in Canada, plus NAV CANADA fees, taxes, aircraft leasing costs, fuel, I can't see them regularly turning a profit on their flights at the pricing strategy they are using, unless their flights are consistently booked full. Even then, it would be very thin margins just on operating costs alone, before stuff like payroll, credit card processing fees, and servicing their debt.


Their main creditor owns most of their fleet. I’m not sure I understand the rationale of pushing the airline into liquidation. There’s a lot of room between forgiving a loan and calling it.
 
ElPistolero
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Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:45 pm

CFWAD wrote:
I don't give Flair kudos for anything - let alone being a serious shot at being legitimate. What they are doing is putting their customers at risk of standing at an empty YKF counter one day, looking out to a 737-8 with no money left to fill its tanks. What they have done is brought in a bunch of people from outside of Canada who have had a decent run at other ULCCs but have zero understanding of the Canadian aviation landscape.

Costs from Abbotsford to Kitchener are one thing and one route. Taking a random look at Flightaware yesterday, many routes were through YVR, YYC, YYZ and YOW - not cheap airports.

They just recently had a sale to Burbank/Hollywood for 100% off the fare. I remember a previous Canadian LCC who infamously had "Loonie Sales", yet lasted ~2 years and 10 months.

As mentioned, Flair has done an incredible job of expansion in the last year, bringing on the 737-8 and launching routes across Canada. But what will happen when that $140 million gets burned through Canada's painfully slow shoulder season and then add the upcoming costly winter operations (not to mention increased fuel prices). And this is all happening before AC/PD/TS/WG/WS fully unleashes it's pre-covid fleet and routes.

Quite honestly, I see another shuffle by January (if they last). Steve Jones (CEO/President) and Garth Lund (COO) will be out and you will find the managing director at T7 Partners scouting out an ex-AC/WS or Swoop exec to fill the spot until the airline eventually drowns in their interest payments.

I have said before, Canadian Airport Improvement Fees alone are ridiculous (not to mention the Federal leases Airport Authorities in Canada are expected to pay annualy). Because they are hidden within the fare, the majority of the population are unfazed or unaware. Start charging $25CAD each time you go through YVR and I guarantee you people will start to question the need for an indoor rain forest when all they want to do is fly home to Ontario for under $200.


All fair points, so maybe they deserve kudos just for taking a chance and demonstrating how archaic policies and practices (AIF, taxes etc) have rendered a model that works worldwide, unworkable in Canada. Who knows - maybe it’ll knock Canadian aviation out of its groupthink stupor.

Sure, some will argue that it’s a function of Canada’s size and population distribution. There’s no way of proving or disproving that. The closest parallel that comes to mind is the way Canadian telcos trembled in their boots when US telcos were sniffing around entering the market - if the market conditions are so unique, why would experienced incumbents worry?

Frankly don’t buy into the notion that there’s anything unique about Canada beyond its adoption of poorly thought out and archaic approaches. Nor should it matter that there’s a bunch of foreigners - who’re evidently decent at what they do - in charge. If Flair does go down, it would probably be better if it goes down fighting with a foreigner at the helm, especially now that Flair has the Competition Bureau investigating WS for predatory pricing.
 
Skywatcher
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Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2002 11:19 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:23 pm

I'm thinking of doing YUL-YVR-YUL soon so decided to do a quickie search for Nov.16 to Nov.30 based on lowest price only. Here's the scoop;
AC $392 return (non-stop)
Flair $197 return (non-stop)
Westjet $366 return (only 1 stop available via YYZ)

Obviously Flair is the choice but all 3 fares are very reasonable in my opinion. One caveat-Westjet as usual is simply not a choice however since a stop in YYZ is worth hundreds of dollars to avoid for me at least. I've had all kinds of misery transferring in YYZ and will never do it again.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:39 pm

sxf24 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Skywatcher wrote:
I'm sure most of us here agree that Flair deserves kudos for taking a serious shot at being a legitimate player in the Canadian marketplace.
It's a tough task but hopefully they can carve out a sustainable niche.
There must be ways to slash costs that Air Canada and Westjet are unable to do (keep admin fat low/stock options instead of other benefits/outsouce big time/pick up cheap surplus equipment due to covid etc.)?

Unless Flair can quickly renegotiate and refinance their debt (they have a loan for $140 million USD at 18% interest, plus their main creditor is threatening to call in their loan, which would put them into receivership), they are in a lot of financial trouble down the line. I just don't see them as being financially viable anywhere past a year with that interest rate.

With how high landing fees are in general in Canada, plus NAV CANADA fees, taxes, aircraft leasing costs, fuel, I can't see them regularly turning a profit on their flights at the pricing strategy they are using, unless their flights are consistently booked full. Even then, it would be very thin margins just on operating costs alone, before stuff like payroll, credit card processing fees, and servicing their debt.


Their main creditor owns most of their fleet. I’m not sure I understand the rationale of pushing the airline into liquidation. There’s a lot of room between forgiving a loan and calling it.

Their main creditor is currently subject to a lawsuit from a major airline shareholder saying that the creditor pushed the aggressive expansion plan onto the airline with the threat of calling in the loan if they didn't cooperate.

And that loan was actually them refinancing other loans with their new creditor that pushed the expansion plan onto them.
 
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IceCream
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:47 am

It isn't looking good for Flair...maybe one and a half years more?
 
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CrewBunk
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:52 am

Perhaps better yield management is in order for Flair.

Out of interest, I checked out the YUL-YVR example from above, for this Monday, October 18. I see Air Canada has four flights including an A330. In total, about 95% full with J sold out on 3 of the 4 flights. The cheapest Y fare offered is $898.

Flair is offering Y at $296 and has seats available.

It would appear Flair could double their fares and still be considerably cheaper than Air Canada.
 
sxf24
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:29 am

ThePointblank wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Unless Flair can quickly renegotiate and refinance their debt (they have a loan for $140 million USD at 18% interest, plus their main creditor is threatening to call in their loan, which would put them into receivership), they are in a lot of financial trouble down the line. I just don't see them as being financially viable anywhere past a year with that interest rate.

With how high landing fees are in general in Canada, plus NAV CANADA fees, taxes, aircraft leasing costs, fuel, I can't see them regularly turning a profit on their flights at the pricing strategy they are using, unless their flights are consistently booked full. Even then, it would be very thin margins just on operating costs alone, before stuff like payroll, credit card processing fees, and servicing their debt.


Their main creditor owns most of their fleet. I’m not sure I understand the rationale of pushing the airline into liquidation. There’s a lot of room between forgiving a loan and calling it.

Their main creditor is currently subject to a lawsuit from a major airline shareholder saying that the creditor pushed the aggressive expansion plan onto the airline with the threat of calling in the loan if they didn't cooperate.

And that loan was actually them refinancing other loans with their new creditor that pushed the expansion plan onto them.


Those with money on the line should have the ability to influence the future of a company. Jim Scott put almost nothing into Flair: why should he get to hold it back?
 
ElPistolero
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Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:49 am

CrewBunk wrote:
Perhaps better yield management is in order for Flair.

Out of interest, I checked out the YUL-YVR example from above, for this Monday, October 18. I see Air Canada has four flights including an A330. In total, about 95% full with J sold out on 3 of the 4 flights. The cheapest Y fare offered is $898.

Flair is offering Y at $296 and has seats available.

It would appear Flair could double their fares and still be considerably cheaper than Air Canada.


Would make sense if they were only competing with AC. They’re not; TS is charging $302 that day. In theory, a lot of those Flair $297 fares will become $326 - $336 when carry-on fees are applied before travel or at the airport. Considering AC Y was going for ~$600 r/t on this route in summer 2019, that doesn’t look terrible.

I see its affecting AC prices on the route - there’s $249 tickets to be had in two weeks, and $203 in November. Can only guess at how many Y seats on the 4 AC flights on Monday were sold at those rates. Good times for consumers.
 
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CrewBunk
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:04 am

That’s exactly what I mean by yield management. Knowing that Air Canada will get a certain fare on a certain route within a certain time should adjust its own fares accordingly. Always maintaining a better price edge.

Also very telling is that there are only three open J seats out of 71 spread over four flights. Being three days out, these would not (yet) be last minute free upgrades nor high level frequent flyer awards.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:33 am

CrewBunk wrote:
That’s exactly what I mean by yield management. Knowing that Air Canada will get a certain fare on a certain route within a certain time should adjust its own fares accordingly. Always maintaining a better price edge.

Also very telling is that there are only three open J seats out of 71 spread over four flights. Being three days out, these would not (yet) be last minute free upgrades nor high level frequent flyer awards.


Knowing what AC will charge doesn’t really amount to much when another airline is charging only $5 more. They’re targeting the price sensitive market - why would they give TS an advantage?

As an aside, not sure how AC J is relevant here. I’m glad they’re filling their J cabins, but F8 is quite explicitly not in the J business.

FWIW, AC 301 - (A333) - on 20 October is showing J award availability on my (not Aeroplan) *A award system, and there’s a fair bit of J availability on flights peppered throughout the next week, which is odd if the seats are selling so quick. Admittedly haven’t seen this kind of availability in the past.
 
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CrewBunk
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:03 am

Yes, you’ll notice I didn’t mention Aeroplan etc. award availability as that is capped at 2 seats per J cabin and often are booked months in advance. (often 330 days for Australia). It has always been my opinion that they are like “revenue” seats as they are earned/rewarded for a certain amount of travel. Is it really “free” if one had to fly around the world twice to earn it?

That there are reward allotments available during next week is probably an indication of how little people have travelled during the last year to earn those “miles”.

I was referring to the methods used to “top up” the J cabin during the last 24 hours before departure. Things like automatic upgrades for high level frequent flyers or bid system from certain fare levels. That’s why I don’t give much credence to a full J cabin within a day of departure.

I only mentioned it as several days out, J was filled without those upgrade methods and only full revenue passengers.

It’s also interesting to note that only 106 of the 244 Y seats on the A330/ACA301 were allotted to the lowest fare level.

I do agree that Air Canada, Transat at Flair attract a different passenger, but I find closer to the day of departure as the last minute “need” increases, that fare, in my opinion, should rise at Flair to capitalize on that need. I am more than a little surprised to see on investigation that Westjet does not offer any nonstops between YUL and YVR.
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3856
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:51 am

sxf24 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Their main creditor owns most of their fleet. I’m not sure I understand the rationale of pushing the airline into liquidation. There’s a lot of room between forgiving a loan and calling it.

Their main creditor is currently subject to a lawsuit from a major airline shareholder saying that the creditor pushed the aggressive expansion plan onto the airline with the threat of calling in the loan if they didn't cooperate.

And that loan was actually them refinancing other loans with their new creditor that pushed the expansion plan onto them.


Those with money on the line should have the ability to influence the future of a company. Jim Scott put almost nothing into Flair: why should he get to hold it back?

The other company that filed suit regarding Flair's expansion plan, Prescott Strategic Investments LP, is also a major shareholder and investor in Flair, owning 68% of Flair's voting shares.

https://biv.com/article/2021/07/lawsuit ... nsion-plan

They very much have money on the line if Flair failed; furthermore there are allegations that Flair's expansion plans was not approved by shareholders as required.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1354
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:45 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Their main creditor is currently subject to a lawsuit from a major airline shareholder saying that the creditor pushed the aggressive expansion plan onto the airline with the threat of calling in the loan if they didn't cooperate.

And that loan was actually them refinancing other loans with their new creditor that pushed the expansion plan onto them.


Those with money on the line should have the ability to influence the future of a company. Jim Scott put almost nothing into Flair: why should he get to hold it back?

The other company that filed suit regarding Flair's expansion plan, Prescott Strategic Investments LP, is also a major shareholder and investor in Flair, owning 68% of Flair's voting shares.

https://biv.com/article/2021/07/lawsuit ... nsion-plan

They very much have money on the line if Flair failed; furthermore there are allegations that Flair's expansion plans was not approved by shareholders as required.


Prescott starved Flair and was basically going to let it fail before other investors came in. I’m not sure what their motivation is.
 
AWNP
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:53 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:29 pm

CrewBunk wrote:
I am more than a little surprised to see on investigation that Westjet does not offer any nonstops between YUL and YVR.


Of all markets, YUL seems like a prime opportunity for Flair to disrupt, very large market with relatively low competition.
 
CFWAD
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 2:45 am

YUL is one of the least favorable markets for Flair to interrupt, given their current prescribed business model.

AC, PD, TS and WS have the domestic market covered from YUL - both VFR and premium. WS has tried for over 10 years to penetrate this market and, well, the Q400s replacing the 736/73G tells you how that worked.

As a Canadian, it's laughable to consider an Ultra Low Cost formula when flying a route YYZ-YVR.

Flair needs to be the Allegiant of Canada. Fly from major high cost markets (YYZ/YUL/YVR) to smaller low cost markets (YQU/YXS/YSJ) and from major low cost markets (YXX/YKF/YHM) to major high cost markets (YYZ/YUL/YVR).

As soon as one compares the prices and realizes they can have the same on Flair vs. WestJet (after ancillary costs), and yet have 6 recovery options if their plans are upended - guess who will win out.

There are so many ways a ULCC could work in Canada - yet none have proven the model. I wish Sunwing would get their house in order and shift a sizeable portion of their winter fleet to summer domestic.
 
User avatar
cirrusdragoon
Posts: 452
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:59 am

CFWAD wrote:
YUL is one of the least favorable markets for Flair to interrupt, given their current prescribed business model.

AC, PD, TS and WS have the domestic market covered from YUL - both VFR and premium. WS has tried for over 10 years to penetrate this market and, well, the Q400s replacing the 736/73G tells you how that worked.

As a Canadian, it's laughable to consider an Ultra Low Cost formula when flying a route YYZ-YVR.

Flair needs to be the Allegiant of Canada. Fly from major high cost markets (YYZ/YUL/YVR) to smaller low cost markets (YQU/YXS/YSJ) and from major low cost markets (YXX/YKF/YHM) to major high cost markets (YYZ/YUL/YVR).

As soon as one compares the prices and realizes they can have the same on Flair vs. WestJet (after ancillary costs), and yet have 6 recovery options if their plans are upended - guess who will win out.

There are so many ways a ULCC could work in Canada - yet none have proven the model. I wish Sunwing would get their house in order and shift a sizeable portion of their winter fleet to summer domestic.


well put.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2404
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:11 pm

Aside from the T7- Jim Prescott shenanigans, F8 isn’t doing anything that US ULCCs F9 and NK aren’t. Those airlines also operate on a mix of high cost to high cost/high cost to low cost/low cost to low cost airports.

Still remains to be seen whether WS pricing passes the Competition Bureau sniff test ( the irony being that the below avoidable cost criteria being applied was developed to stop WS being sunk by AC predatory pricing).

As an aside, few ULCC pax buy tickets on the assumption that their flight won’t operate and that they should therefore choose airlines based on recovery options. They focus on price. They’ll get burned, sure, and they’ll swear never to fly F8 again, but when push comes to shove the next time round, price is their primary motivator. Just ask G4.

Besides, some of these folk have been burned by AC and WS in the past, so might be quite satisfied that the grass isn’t greener on the other side. In which case, why not save even $5-$10 on a relatively similar experience. The only trip report I’ve come across on F8 suggests as much:

“Comparing it to a full-service carrier like WestJet or Air Canada, the ultra-low-cost-experience isn’t too different when flying domestic.”

https://simpleflying.com/trip-review-fl ... -covid-19/
 
CFWAD
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:19 pm

sxf24 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Those with money on the line should have the ability to influence the future of a company. Jim Scott put almost nothing into Flair: why should he get to hold it back?

The other company that filed suit regarding Flair's expansion plan, Prescott Strategic Investments LP, is also a major shareholder and investor in Flair, owning 68% of Flair's voting shares.

https://biv.com/article/2021/07/lawsuit ... nsion-plan

They very much have money on the line if Flair failed; furthermore there are allegations that Flair's expansion plans was not approved by shareholders as required.


Prescott starved Flair and was basically going to let it fail before other investors came in. I’m not sure what their motivation is.


I always questioned his involvement and to be honest, what he ended up buying was a dumpster fire. But it's on him for not doing his due diligence. He "bought" an airline that, at the time, was outsourcing 3 major operational functions: Aircraft leasing, Dispatch and Maintenance - all done at the time by Kelowna Flightcraft (now KF Aerospace). I won't speculate on favorable rates given due to the relationship BL and JR had but it turned on a dime once JR was out. Flair was sued by KF for over 200k in dispatch dues . And to add, Flair had only just purchased the commercial side of operations from New Leaf Travel at the time.

There was never a chance his Delta, B.C. plastics company would be able to bank roll a national airline. And what experience did he have? I mean for a short time they brought on the ex-Virgin Airlines guy (David Tait) to be their Chairman. What relevance did that ever have? Just $$CAD out the tail pipe.

With air travel picking up, T7 Partners could run some numbers and find out those 737-8 lease rates could be better off at an airline able to pay it's leases without an 18% interest on credit... and survive long enough to pay it's bills.

Flair has had it's chance.. a few times over in fact. Am curious to see how they function this winter when a good portion of their RON fleet is stuck in the YYZ CDF at 0700 and how they plan to recover their daily rolling delays. I feel I owe Jimbo some pizza to sit back and watch...what you eating down in AZ these days?
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3856
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:24 pm

sxf24 wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Those with money on the line should have the ability to influence the future of a company. Jim Scott put almost nothing into Flair: why should he get to hold it back?

The other company that filed suit regarding Flair's expansion plan, Prescott Strategic Investments LP, is also a major shareholder and investor in Flair, owning 68% of Flair's voting shares.

https://biv.com/article/2021/07/lawsuit ... nsion-plan

They very much have money on the line if Flair failed; furthermore there are allegations that Flair's expansion plans was not approved by shareholders as required.


Prescott starved Flair and was basically going to let it fail before other investors came in. I’m not sure what their motivation is.


Flair's operating with a $160 million dollar loan with an 18% interest rate from a lender that's forced it aggressively spend said cash from the loan into a major expansion at a time where air travel in Canada is a mere fraction of what it was. In addition, they are engaging in a pricing war against two very large and well capitalized carriers with a limited war chest. They are now seeking a government bail out now because traffic still hasn't recovered, and have suffered from a major operational meltdown.

That doesn't sound like an airline that's financially viable now.
 
CFWAD
Posts: 159
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:38 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Aside from the T7- Jim Prescott shenanigans, F8 isn’t doing anything that US ULCCs F9 and NK aren’t. Those airlines also operate on a mix of high cost to high cost/high cost to low cost/low cost to low cost airports.

Still remains to be seen whether WS pricing passes the Competition Bureau sniff test ( the irony being that the below avoidable cost criteria being applied was developed to stop WS being sunk by AC predatory pricing).

As an aside, few ULCC pax buy tickets on the assumption that their flight won’t operate and that they should therefore choose airlines based on recovery options. They focus on price. They’ll get burned, sure, and they’ll swear never to fly F8 again, but when push comes to shove the next time round, price is their primary motivator. Just ask G4.

Besides, some of these folk have been burned by AC and WS in the past, so might be quite satisfied that the grass isn’t greener on the other side. In which case, why not save even $5-$10 on a relatively similar experience. The only trip report I’ve come across on F8 suggests as much:

“Comparing it to a full-service carrier like WestJet or Air Canada, the ultra-low-cost-experience isn’t too different when flying domestic.”

https://simpleflying.com/trip-review-fl ... -covid-19/


https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Airline_Review-d13635959-Reviews-Flair-Airlines

I appreciate you trying to compare ULCCs, but you simply cannot compare what F9 and NK do what operates in Canada. We do not have the LAX, LAS, MCO or NYC that drives their market type. What we do have in insanely high taxes and fees. Canada needs an Allegiant or Sun Country style, low frequency and the right markets (think weekends in YVR from YQU/YMM/YXS or flying twice a week from Yellowknife to Toronto.

The Competition bureau crap is quite frankly, just that. For years airlines have cried this and it has gotten nowhere. The closest argument that ever came was back in 2004 when Jetsgo went up against WS after they found Jimbo had not recycled ;-) This will go absolutely nowhere and expect nothing - especially given that many routes under the complaint are now being flown by Swoop and not WestJet mainline.

I will give you that ULCC customers tend to not book based on my perceived industry experience. In fact, based on many reviews I have read, a lot of Flair customers seem to be booking from 3rd party sites and thus unaware of the added fees. But again, it could only take one trip to turn them.
 
nine4nine
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Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 2:22 pm

With the easing of travel restrictions for vaccinated international travelers are re-opening of US-Canada borders I think flair is in a better position to start making some $$ on its new US routes with snowbird season kicking off and beyond stir crazy Canadians ready to get back to their warm weather homes for the winter months.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2404
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:21 pm

CFWAD wrote:

https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Airline_Review-d13635959-Reviews-Flair-Airlines

I appreciate you trying to compare ULCCs, but you simply cannot compare what F9 and NK do what operates in Canada. We do not have the LAX, LAS, MCO or NYC that drives their market type. What we do have in insanely high taxes and fees. Canada needs an Allegiant or Sun Country style, low frequency and the right markets (think weekends in YVR from YQU/YMM/YXS or flying twice a week from Yellowknife to Toronto.

The Competition bureau crap is quite frankly, just that. For years airlines have cried this and it has gotten nowhere. The closest argument that ever came was back in 2004 when Jetsgo went up against WS after they found Jimbo had not recycled ;-) This will go absolutely nowhere and expect nothing - especially given that many routes under the complaint are now being flown by Swoop and not WestJet mainline.

I will give you that ULCC customers tend to not book based on my perceived industry experience. In fact, based on many reviews I have read, a lot of Flair customers seem to be booking from 3rd party sites and thus unaware of the added fees. But again, it could only take one trip to turn them.


Not sure what the tripadvisor link is supposed to prove. That 1400 people really don’t like it? That’s the equivalent of 7.4 full F8 flights - hardly a significant number. The oddest thing there is that some folk find it “excellent”. Who finds ULCCs “excellent”?

I know people taking long weekend trips from YOW to YVR, so I don’t think anyone really knows what kind of markets these fares can stimulate. Ergo, I don’t see any reason to pigeonhole them. We haven’t seen these types of fares in a long time - Jetsgo happened over 15 years ago. Think it’s a bit premature to state that only certain routes are viable. And that’s without factoring COVID. Worth pointing out that they aren’t just flying YVR-YYZ; they’re also flying to the sun destinations. And from 5/6 cities to LAS.

I don’t know what the Competition Bureau will find, but it did find AC guilty of predatory pricing during that investigation. They have an approach that they think is worthy of sharing with other countries, so let’s see what it spits out.

But it’s all moved to Swoop? Sure, in which case case, Swoop’s service recovery is going to be impacted by its equally small fleet? Where are they going to find the slack? At which point, any ‘advantage’ is a wash.

If we go back to first principles, the issue is simple: The market at play here is the lowest priority for AC/WS. They’re not going to get treated much better there - the product is about the same, as the simply flying guy notes.

Makes me think that F8s fate is tied less to its route structure than it is to whatever’s going on with T7 and Prescott.
 
CFWAD
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 4:40 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
CFWAD wrote:

https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Airline_Review-d13635959-Reviews-Flair-Airlines

I appreciate you trying to compare ULCCs, but you simply cannot compare what F9 and NK do what operates in Canada. We do not have the LAX, LAS, MCO or NYC that drives their market type. What we do have in insanely high taxes and fees. Canada needs an Allegiant or Sun Country style, low frequency and the right markets (think weekends in YVR from YQU/YMM/YXS or flying twice a week from Yellowknife to Toronto.

The Competition bureau crap is quite frankly, just that. For years airlines have cried this and it has gotten nowhere. The closest argument that ever came was back in 2004 when Jetsgo went up against WS after they found Jimbo had not recycled ;-) This will go absolutely nowhere and expect nothing - especially given that many routes under the complaint are now being flown by Swoop and not WestJet mainline.

I will give you that ULCC customers tend to not book based on my perceived industry experience. In fact, based on many reviews I have read, a lot of Flair customers seem to be booking from 3rd party sites and thus unaware of the added fees. But again, it could only take one trip to turn them.


Not sure what the tripadvisor link is supposed to prove. That 1400 people really don’t like it? That’s the equivalent of 7.4 full F8 flights - hardly a significant number. The oddest thing there is that some folk find it “excellent”. Who finds ULCCs “excellent”?

I know people taking long weekend trips from YOW to YVR, so I don’t think anyone really knows what kind of markets these fares can stimulate. Ergo, I don’t see any reason to pigeonhole them. We haven’t seen these types of fares in a long time - Jetsgo happened over 15 years ago. Think it’s a bit premature to state that only certain routes are viable. And that’s without factoring COVID. Worth pointing out that they aren’t just flying YVR-YYZ; they’re also flying to the sun destinations. And from 5/6 cities to LAS.

I don’t know what the Competition Bureau will find, but it did find AC guilty of predatory pricing during that investigation. They have an approach that they think is worthy of sharing with other countries, so let’s see what it spits out.

But it’s all moved to Swoop? Sure, in which case case, Swoop’s service recovery is going to be impacted by its equally small fleet? Where are they going to find the slack? At which point, any ‘advantage’ is a wash.

If we go back to first principles, the issue is simple: The market at play here is the lowest priority for AC/WS. They’re not going to get treated much better there - the product is about the same, as the simply flying guy notes.

Makes me think that F8s fate is tied less to its route structure than it is to whatever’s going on with T7 and Prescott.


It sort of proves a lot, actually. Especially when you mention you know people that enjoy long weekend trips to the West coast. And the ~1400 negative reviews vs the +1 review from Simply Flying helps to give a better understanding of their product. And, yes, there will be those people who get a $49 fare and fly with a back pack and it happens to be an early departure almost certainly guaranteeing somewhat on time. But the nightmare reviews of booking a "long weekend" holiday and yet getting +9 hour delays on either end or flat out flight cancellations hardly spurs confidence in repeat travelers.

You mention sun destinations. They already had a play with that. Albeit, was not entirely their fault due to the Max groundings, but they cancelled well over 50% of their winter program in 2019 due to a clause in their wet-lease agreement with Smart Wings. When WestJet started U.S. flying they had over 7 years of domestic feed and comfortable charter experiences and contracts with both Sunquest Vacations and later Transat Vacations. They (and AC) are not as dependent on one-way travel as Flair will be - and can also easily send a recovery aircraft down to rescue the hungovers who need to be back for Monday morning.

Jetsgo happened 15 years ago and we have not seen a repeat since - even during the robust boom around 2014. It took the Canadian government to relax foreign ownership in airlines for an airline to finally get enough investment to start. And when they finally did? 18% interest. That shows the confidence the capital markets have of the airline industry in Canada (won't even venture into PD's failed IPOs over the years).

The market at play is not the lowest priority at AC/WS. They recognize it. Hence Rouge and Swoop. If Calin or Ben could have had it, they would have squeezed the unions for even more out of Rouge. Rouge is getting brand spanking 321's for a reason. And also the product is not the same. Even at the lowest available economy fare on AC, you still get inflight entertainment and much better chance of recovery during an irregular operation. Their inflight service offers a much more robust menu. Further, depending on your city pairing, you get a choice of aircraft and layout. Ex. From YVR-YYZ I get the selection of an A220, A333, B78M, B772, B77W, B788, B789. And this is all specific to the actual flying product. I can get a hold of AC or WS 24/7 on multiple platforms if I have issues - hardly even close to what Flair can offer.

Unless Flair puts in some serious padding to their winter operations schedule - they are so very well doomed. I hope they will. I doubt they do.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2404
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:50 pm

CFWAD wrote:

It sort of proves a lot, actually. Especially when you mention you know people that enjoy long weekend trips to the West coast. And the ~1400 negative reviews vs the +1 review from Simply Flying helps to give a better understanding of their product. And, yes, there will be those people who get a $49 fare and fly with a back pack and it happens to be an early departure almost certainly guaranteeing somewhat on time. But the nightmare reviews of booking a "long weekend" holiday and yet getting +9 hour delays on either end or flat out flight cancellations hardly spurs confidence in repeat travelers.

You mention sun destinations. They already had a play with that. Albeit, was not entirely their fault due to the Max groundings, but they cancelled well over 50% of their winter program in 2019 due to a clause in their wet-lease agreement with Smart Wings. When WestJet started U.S. flying they had over 7 years of domestic feed and comfortable charter experiences and contracts with both Sunquest Vacations and later Transat Vacations. They (and AC) are not as dependent on one-way travel as Flair will be - and can also easily send a recovery aircraft down to rescue the hungovers who need to be back for Monday morning.

Jetsgo happened 15 years ago and we have not seen a repeat since - even during the robust boom around 2014. It took the Canadian government to relax foreign ownership in airlines for an airline to finally get enough investment to start. And when they finally did? 18% interest. That shows the confidence the capital markets have of the airline industry in Canada (won't even venture into PD's failed IPOs over the years).

The market at play is not the lowest priority at AC/WS. They recognize it. Hence Rouge and Swoop. If Calin or Ben could have had it, they would have squeezed the unions for even more out of Rouge. Rouge is getting brand spanking 321's for a reason. And also the product is not the same. Even at the lowest available economy fare on AC, you still get inflight entertainment and much better chance of recovery during an irregular operation. Their inflight service offers a much more robust menu. Further, depending on your city pairing, you get a choice of aircraft and layout. Ex. From YVR-YYZ I get the selection of an A220, A333, B78M, B772, B77W, B788, B789. And this is all specific to the actual flying product. I can get a hold of AC or WS 24/7 on multiple platforms if I have issues - hardly even close to what Flair can offer.

Unless Flair puts in some serious padding to their winter operations schedule - they are so very well doomed. I hope they will. I doubt they do.


The reviews don’t mean anything. G4, FR etc attract some of the worst reviews. They’re still a success. AC Rouge is universally panned. Still considered a success. The main takeaway from the simpleflying article is not the “+1”; it’s that when things work, the difference between AC/WS/Swoop/Rouge and Flair is negligible. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that 80% of Flair’s flights dont suffer crazy delays.

Also think it’s a bit disingenuous to say that Rouge or Swoop indicate that the ULCC market matters to AC//WS. Those airlines have ULCC cost structures, not ULCC prices. They cater to the same mainline pax and charge the same mainline prices (except, apparently, where F8 and TS compete with them). I don’t doubt that they’d like to put all their pilots and FAs on ULCC contracts, but they’re never going to charge G4 or FR prices to go with it. The Y products themselves are more or less the same across AC/WS/Rouge and Swoop (and now F8). The only difference is a seat back screen - generally irrelevant in an age of downloadable content and HD tablets. Call center wait times - are generally painful across all airlines in Canada.

The rest is equally intangible and irrelevant. Service recovery might be better for J class pax, but basic Y pax are always going to be lowest priority. Unless the next few flights are sufficiently empty to accommodate them, they’re SOL. Aircraft type? Do ULCC pax care about that? Will they pay more? They’re ULCC consumers for a reason - they value things differently to mainline pax. They’re not going to pay more to fly in a similarly cramped seat in a larger aircraft (I’m guessing the standard 7M8 Y seat is easily substitutable for the 17.5” X 30” 787 Y seats).

We’ll find out how F8 pads flights soon enough, but I think Canadians are quite inured to winter delays. What was AC’s OTP pre-Covid? 70%? It hasn’t hurt them any. F8 should be able to match that.

EDIT: think this exchange is interesting insofar how identical Y products across Canada are regardless of mainline or ULCC status. We’re literally down to a tiny bag of pretzels, a glass of coke, superior BoB menus, and PTV (some so outdated and low res, they might as well not exist) as reasons why a basic Y pax should choose mainline over ULCC. That, and a slightly better chance of service recovery in IRROPs (albeit after higher fare pax are processed).

Think you’re going to have a hard time finding ULCC pax who’ll spend extra for that mix of tangible benefits (tiny bag of pretzels, coke, 2007-era PTV) and hypothetical ones (speed of IRROPs recovery).
 
AWNP
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:53 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:26 pm

CFWAD wrote:
YUL is one of the least favorable markets for Flair to interrupt, given their current prescribed business model.

AC, PD, TS and WS have the domestic market covered from YUL - both VFR and premium. WS has tried for over 10 years to penetrate this market and, well, the Q400s replacing the 736/73G tells you how that worked.



PD and TS domestic capacity in YUL make WS look almost respectable. While there are 4 carriers flying, no other carrier is anywhere close to challenging AC market share in YUL, which in theory should be an opportunity for a ULCC to disrupt.

Here's the #2 airline by domestic seat share in the 4 largest markets this December:

YYZ: 30%
YVR: 31%
YYC: 34%
YUL: 10%

Wasn't that different in pre-Covid time (here's July 2019)

YYZ: 31%
YVR: 31%
YYC: 38%
YUL: 14%
 
User avatar
cirrusdragoon
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:42 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:46 pm

AWNP wrote:
CFWAD wrote:
YUL is one of the least favorable markets for Flair to interrupt, given their current prescribed business model.

AC, PD, TS and WS have the domestic market covered from YUL - both VFR and premium. WS has tried for over 10 years to penetrate this market and, well, the Q400s replacing the 736/73G tells you how that worked.



PD and TS domestic capacity in YUL make WS look almost respectable. While there are 4 carriers flying, no other carrier is anywhere close to challenging AC market share in YUL, which in theory should be an opportunity for a ULCC to disrupt.

Here's the #2 airline by domestic seat share in the 4 largest markets this December:

YYZ: 30%
YVR: 31%
YYC: 34%
YUL: 10%

Wasn't that different in pre-Covid time (here's July 2019)

YYZ: 31%
YVR: 31%
YYC: 38%
YUL: 14%


Can you please provide a source for these numbers please and thank you :)
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 585
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:01 am

Hearing Flair is going to continue flying to FLL beyond the winter. Not sure if this has been discussed above.
 
AWNP
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:53 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:30 am

cirrusdragoon wrote:
AWNP wrote:
CFWAD wrote:
YUL is one of the least favorable markets for Flair to interrupt, given their current prescribed business model.

AC, PD, TS and WS have the domestic market covered from YUL - both VFR and premium. WS has tried for over 10 years to penetrate this market and, well, the Q400s replacing the 736/73G tells you how that worked.



PD and TS domestic capacity in YUL make WS look almost respectable. While there are 4 carriers flying, no other carrier is anywhere close to challenging AC market share in YUL, which in theory should be an opportunity for a ULCC to disrupt.

Here's the #2 airline by domestic seat share in the 4 largest markets this December:

YYZ: 30%
YVR: 31%
YYC: 34%
YUL: 10%

Wasn't that different in pre-Covid time (here's July 2019)

YYZ: 31%
YVR: 31%
YYC: 38%
YUL: 14%


Can you please provide a source for these numbers please and thank you :)


From Diio Mi
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:52 pm

Here they grow again. I must say remarkable. The Edmonton-based discount carrier says it will add four new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft to its fleet in the spring of 2022.

This brings Flair's total aircraft count to 16, and will allow the airline to expand its route offerings by 33 per cent. Flair will launch service this spring to new destinations including San Francisco, Nashville and Denver. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-airli ... -1.1668484
 
TexasAirCorp
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:36 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Here they grow again. I must say remarkable. The Edmonton-based discount carrier says it will add four new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft to its fleet in the spring of 2022.

This brings Flair's total aircraft count to 16, and will allow the airline to expand its route offerings by 33 per cent. Flair will launch service this spring to new destinations including San Francisco, Nashville and Denver. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-airli ... -1.1668484


Wow. Bold move considering all the tension between T7 and Prescott regarding Flair's expansion, and the fact they're trying to get a government bailout. Are these aircraft coming from T7 or elsewhere?

BNA seems like a good move. I recall Swoop trying OAK from somewhere, I believe it was YLW, and cancelling the route before it launched. Maybe a low-frequency summer YEG-OAK/SFO will work.

DEN though seems like an odd choice seeing as F9 has axed DEN-YYC. Is Colorado a popular spot for Canadian tourists?
 
alan3
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:55 pm

Adding the official Flair press release here of network and fleet growth plans

https://storage.googleapis.com/flyflair ... 8c55a0.pdf

Wow....some surprises here. That a ULCC is directly going head to head against AC & UA on YVR-SFO (instead of SJC or OAK, for example) is interesting, especially considering that previous additions were to AZA instead of PHX and BUR instead of LAX.
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:02 pm

alan3 wrote:
Adding the official Flair press release here of network and fleet growth plans

https://storage.googleapis.com/flyflair ... 8c55a0.pdf

Wow....some surprises here. That a ULCC is directly going head to head against AC & UA on YVR-SFO (instead of SJC or OAK, for example) is interesting, especially considering that previous additions were to AZA instead of PHX and BUR instead of LAX.


WS also operates yvr -sfo
 
CFWAD
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:26 pm

Oh I hope next year will be an end to this painful experiment - and waste of $140 million.

SFO on an ULCC? With their early morning flights - it is going to be a great excuse to lose 1/14 of their fleet to SFO fog every few days. And who that can afford a SFO getaway would choose an ULCC?

DEN in the spring and summer from Canada? For Canadians, DEN in the summer is equal to YYZ in the winter. We fly through there because of AC/UA connections- not because we want to.

BNA might work but there is a lot of loyalty in Western Canada to WS.. And don't discount the WestJet Rewards benefits and tie-in with Delta.

Vancouver Island is small and people talk. Flair has pulled out of Victoria before, not leaving a good impression.

The pessimist in me sees this as a ploy to both fill their coffers over the slim shoulder season and expensive winter one; while at the same time testing out demand so far out, they can easily cancel and redeploy when the demand fails to materialize. Which is what they have done countless times. If you step back, this might almost be considered a desperate attempt to pay off those upcoming interest payments.

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