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oceanbeat
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:11 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:14 pm

Aresxerexade wrote:
runway23 wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
Flair is pure O&D.

What do you do with that expensive new iron that needs to operate 350 hours a month with compensatory revenues to make any LCC/ULCC economics work? This ain't Allegiant with a slew of clapped out MD80's that cost $45k a month that only need to operate an avg of 7 hours a day.

Without feed / flow to fill those seats, they'll rely on $59 trans border fares with $45 in anciliary revenues to fill 180 seat aircraft.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out where this is headed.

. In my opinion, their network planning is what is letting them down not lack of connections.


And lack of a larger population base as in Europe and the USA.


Even though a larger population plays a great role in the economics of airlines, it is not completely a deal breaker to make the LCC/ULCC market work. I do believe it can work in Canada with its merely 38 million inhabitants.

A good example of a similar market that was entirely dominated by the flag carrier is Colombia, where now there is a boom of ULCC carriers doing very well. Avianca reined since its foundation in 1919 and every other national carrier trying to compete failed: ACES, SAM, AIRES, INTERCONTINENTAL. Until Viva Air entered the market in 2012.

It is true Colombia has a bigger population than Canada: 50 million, but the purchasing power is way lower. the nominal GDP per capita is $16,264 vs of Canada $52,791. Geography wise, Colombia is not as wide as Canada, but has the similar limitations geographically as it's mostly a mountainous country. So a trip by car from let's say Bogota to Cali which is 452 km/ 280 miles, takes around 10 hours, a similar trip from Ottawa to Toronto 450km/ 278 miles takes only 4 hrs. Avianca gauged the prices in the domestic market and people used to pay in these type of routes an average of $250 USD RT buying the most economic fare. Again, very similar to what happens in Canada, where AC/WS take advantage in most routes where people can't just drive or main corridors like BOGCLO, BOGMDE.

Another similarity: high taxes and airport fees. Just to give you an example: on a one-way fare of $36.82 CAD from BOG to LIM. Taxes and charges are: Fuel surcharge $6.90 CAD, Stamp tax CO $32.7 CAD, Airport Tax CO $53.91 CAD, IVA CO (GHS/HST) 19% (has been reduced to 5% temporarily during the pandemic) $2.18 CAD. This proves that high airport fees and taxes aren't either a limiting factor for a ULCC to operate and be successful.

Viva Air entered the market 9 years ago operating only domestic main routes and competing face-to-face with legacy carriers as Avianca and Latam. Flying the same airports as Colombia doesn’t have secondary airports in the main cities with fares roughly 50-40 % cheaper. No one thought they would succeed with those fares and now 9 years later they have about 30% of the domestic market share and 10% of international, where they had been expanding in the last year forcing Avianca to change its fare structure to be able to offer a fare that matches the price and attributes of Viva’s (XS fare) and refurbish their entire narrow-body fleet to a LCC high density configuration model: 186 seats on a A320, no business class, no entertainment, no meals. Viva also has paved the way for other ULCC entering the market GCA, Wingo, Ultra Air and Mexican Volaris, and VIVA Aerobus.

They even have published a book worth reading called “The VIVA effect”
“The task when the four partners of Viva Air first came together was daunting. They had to face down an incumbent airline that utterly dominated the Colombian market and had the second largest history in the globe. They were entering a complicated country geographically with regulations that would need changing if they ever hoped to be successful - the deck appeared to be stacked against them.”

For those who think that the ULCC/LCC market in Canada is a myth and will never succeed, think again. If it works somewhere else, I can work here as well.
 
jimbo737
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:45 pm

If airlines in Canada could operate with the same costs, wage structure and productivity rules as in Columbia and elsewhere, I'm sure they'd be viable.

Alas, this is not the case.

This is a good example of the "if my aunt had b*lls, she'd be my uncle" line of reasoning.
 
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IceCream
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:57 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:

Or perhaps Flair should refrain from taking blind leaps when they do not have a cost effective recovery strategy.


Who knows what they were hearing. These announcements don’t seem to correlate much with anything. They could just as well shut down all airports tomorrow and we’d be none the wiser for it.

That said, at least F8 have a customer service recovery strategy that works for the customer. Instead of going for the cost-effective Swoop approach of leaving pax stranded for a week plus (incredibly cost effective, I would imagine, notwithstanding how it affects pax).

Did you not read the link they posted? The Swoop incident happened in Aug 2020 and a similar Flair incident in Aug 2021. That being said it would be nice to see a third domestic airline competitor survive.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:46 am

IceCream wrote:
Did you not read the link they posted? The Swoop incident happened in Aug 2020 and a similar Flair incident in Aug 2021. That being said it would be nice to see a third domestic airline competitor survive.


I don’t follow. Or perhaps I wasn’t clear with those posts.

The timing of these events doesn’t change the fact that Swoop, with all that WS talent and all those WS resources (that massive WS fleet that could be leveraged for recovery flights) left Canadians stranded in another country for 7+ days +. WS was an established airline at the time; it supplied a lot of that Canadian expertise to Swoop. And yet, when things went sideways, none of that counted for anything.

F8 will have many, many, many bad days in the next few months; it’s the reality of being a new and growing operation.

But it’s a bit strange to criticize them for not having a “cost-effective recovery strategy” because they rebooked their pax on another airline to help them get to where they needed to get to, when their competitors “cost-effective recovery strategy” wasn’t to leverage its huge fleet or resources or rebook pax on other airlines, but instead to leave people stuck in another country for 1 week +.

Kinda lays bare the fallacy of this notion that WS cares about the ULCC crowd, or that they’ll bring their larger fleet/resource to bear when things go south. After all, they couldn’t even get one 737 worth of pax back to Canada in a week.

Makes me think F8 has a fighting chance of surviving, because any pax they lose due to IRROPs will come back fairly quickly when they experience other airlines’ “cost-efficient recovery strategy”.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:22 am

ElPistolero wrote:
IceCream wrote:
Did you not read the link they posted? The Swoop incident happened in Aug 2020 and a similar Flair incident in Aug 2021. That being said it would be nice to see a third domestic airline competitor survive.


I don’t follow. Or perhaps I wasn’t clear with those posts.

The timing of these events doesn’t change the fact that Swoop, with all that WS talent and all those WS resources (that massive WS fleet that could be leveraged for recovery flights) left Canadians stranded in another country for 7+ days +. WS was an established airline at the time; it supplied a lot of that Canadian expertise to Swoop. And yet, when things went sideways, none of that counted for anything.

F8 will have many, many, many bad days in the next few months; it’s the reality of being a new and growing operation.

But it’s a bit strange to criticize them for not having a “cost-effective recovery strategy” because they rebooked their pax on another airline to help them get to where they needed to get to, when their competitors “cost-effective recovery strategy” wasn’t to leverage its huge fleet or resources or rebook pax on other airlines, but instead to leave people stuck in another country for 1 week +.

Kinda lays bare the fallacy of this notion that WS cares about the ULCC crowd, or that they’ll bring their larger fleet/resource to bear when things go south. After all, they couldn’t even get one 737 worth of pax back to Canada in a week.

Makes me think F8 has a fighting chance of surviving, because any pax they lose due to IRROPs will come back fairly quickly when they experience other airlines’ “cost-efficient recovery strategy”.

Not when Flair is paying credit card interest rates with their bank loan... so unless Flair is really racking in the cash and is massively profitable, no.

And it also goes to show how lenders view Flair; if the only lender in town is offering a loan to refinance your existing loans with an interest rate in your late teens, it means they view you as a very risky lender. And they are already sending lobbyists to the federal government for bailout money right now... long after other airlines had already received bailout cash from the government, and after what should have been their most profitable quarter.

I mean, look at the per block hour cost of a 737 MAX versus how much revenue they are pulling in from ticket sales per flight. No way they are profitable right now, and I suspect they are burning through their cash reserves to cover their operational expenses. And I doubt their flights are consistently full based upon how disjointed their network is.
 
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Aresxerexade
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Nov 05, 2021 2:25 am

I hope F8 survives financially. Yes they are bound to make mistakes . Hopeful they grow prudently unlike what happened with Norwegian and their ambition.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Nov 05, 2021 4:14 am

ThePointblank wrote:
Not when Flair is paying credit card interest rates with their bank loan... so unless Flair is really racking in the cash and is massively profitable, no.

And it also goes to show how lenders view Flair; if the only lender in town is offering a loan to refinance your existing loans with an interest rate in your late teens, it means they view you as a very risky lender. And they are already sending lobbyists to the federal government for bailout money right now... long after other airlines had already received bailout cash from the government, and after what should have been their most profitable quarter.

I mean, look at the per block hour cost of a 737 MAX versus how much revenue they are pulling in from ticket sales per flight. No way they are profitable right now, and I suspect they are burning through their cash reserves to cover their operational expenses. And I doubt their flights are consistently full based upon how disjointed their network is.


I haven’t been paying close attention to those corporate shenanigans, but isn’t that a loan from T7 partners?

There’s a possibility that T7 will force them to buckle. Alternatively, there’s a possibility that T7 is in this for the long haul. Their portfolio includes other ULCC investments (Air Black Box, Value Alliance etc). If they’re serious about F8, they’ll probably find a way around the loans they’ve provided. Or else, this was just some wild, sinister plot on their part, and a few hundred thousand Canadians got to benefit from it.

My own uninformed guess is the new management that came in Oct 2020 was T7’s brainchild, not that of previous management. That suggests that they’re somewhat serious (or else why bother changing it at all), and that they’ll sustain F8 for a little while yet.

Admittedly not fussed about the bailout cash. The market is still a long way from normal, so doesn’t really make a difference when they asked; the rationale for government aid is still roughly the same. The “morality” and “ethics” of the whole thing got skewed when refunds were held hostage in exchange for bailouts, so it’s a bit late to appeal to them.

As for the lenders piece - not sure how much we can read into that during COVID, considering that lenders had reservations about all airlines. Hence government bail outs for a lot of airlines.
 
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Aresxerexade
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:11 pm

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-airli ... -1.1682530

Flair announces it will begin non-stop flights this winter to Cancun and Los Cabos, Mexico, from Vancouver, Abbotsford, Edmonton, Ottawa and Kitchener-Waterloo.

Including the newly announced Mexico routes, Flair's network now includes 31 destinations.

Flair's new Mexico service will begin Feb. 1, with fares starting between $79-$109 one-way
 
346fetish
Topic Author
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:22 pm

Aresxerexade wrote:
I hope F8 survives financially. Yes they are bound to make mistakes . Hopeful they grow prudently unlike what happened with Norwegian and their ambition.


YEGBNA, looks like very prudent growth to me.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:06 pm

346fetish wrote:

YEGBNA, looks like very prudent growth to me.


Probably just threw it in there to see how many ex-YEG routes they can get Swoop to copy :P.

The YEG wiki page is hilarious; seems F8’s aggression in AB has ticked off WS so badly, they’re throwing Swoop on to all types of routes (albeit starting a few months after F8, in many cases).

Either reflects prudent planning by that “foreigner who doesn’t understand Canadian aviation” JetBlue manager at F8, or a lack of prudent planning by those Canadian market experts at Swoop.
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:22 pm

Aresxerexade wrote:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-airlines-expands-again-with-new-service-to-mexico-1.1682530

Flair announces it will begin non-stop flights this winter to Cancun and Los Cabos, Mexico, from Vancouver, Abbotsford, Edmonton, Ottawa and Kitchener-Waterloo.

Including the newly announced Mexico routes, Flair's network now includes 31 destinations.

Flair's new Mexico service will begin Feb. 1, with fares starting between $79-$109 one-way


Mexico will certainly be a good market for F8
 
nine4nine
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Nov 16, 2021 5:41 pm

YVR-BUR starts this Sunday 11/21. Contemplating a last minute inaugural booking.

How have the other new US routes that just recently launched performing?
 
346fetish
Topic Author
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:05 pm

nine4nine wrote:
YVR-BUR starts this Sunday 11/21. Contemplating a last minute inaugural booking.

How have the other new US routes that just recently launched performing?


YVRBUR inaugural was apparently 11% LF
 
lostsound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon May 21, 2012 1:43 pm

Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:43 pm

346fetish wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
YVR-BUR starts this Sunday 11/21. Contemplating a last minute inaugural booking.

How have the other new US routes that just recently launched performing?


YVRBUR inaugural was apparently 11% LF


Marketing for this route has been practically nonexistent. I live in the BUR area and there's no billboards or ad campaigns for this new service.
My family lives in British Columbia so this route is actually very helpful for me but I doubt it will be around long enough for me to even try it out.
 
nine4nine
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:53 pm

I’m more optimistic rather than pessimistic on this. Borders with Canada have just barely reopened, snowbird season is just beginning and eventually advertising and word of mouth will only be a matter of time. With LAX returning to the nightmare it was pre-covid, Canadians will be quick to opt for a good alternative hassle-feee option. I’m sure AC figured that with their add to SNA.

From Burbank many landmarks and tourist hot spots are much closer. Hollywood is literally 15 minutes, Downtown LA 20 minutes, Universal Studios Hollywood 10 minutes, Six Flags Magic Mountain 25 minutes, and beach destinations like Ventura and Santa Barbara are far closer in drive time than LAX. The mileage between LAX and Disneyland is less from LAX, but the drive time from BUR is a bit less.

Once Canadian flyers find they can be from their seat to curbside in just a few minutes and vice versa that will be a huge win.
 
CFWAD
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:00 pm

WestJet would be the best fit of any Canadian airline to fly into BUR with a reasonable rate of success. They already have a strong leisure presence in SoCal (including WJ Vacations and their partnerships with Disney).
Now with a true Business class on the Max's, they could cater to a good mix of Hollywood North traffic for the front and theme park traffic for the rest of the cabin.

I am curious if Flair is paying a premium to USCBP for this service into BUR, given the airport does not have designated customs facilities at the terminal.
 
Whiteguy
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:52 pm

CFWAD wrote:
WestJet would be the best fit of any Canadian airline to fly into BUR with a reasonable rate of success. They already have a strong leisure presence in SoCal (including WJ Vacations and their partnerships with Disney).
Now with a true Business class on the Max's, they could cater to a good mix of Hollywood North traffic for the front and theme park traffic for the rest of the cabin.

I am curious if Flair is paying a premium to USCBP for this service into BUR, given the airport does not have designated customs facilities at the terminal.


The whole 737 fleet could operate there, not limited to the MAX…
 
alan3
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:28 pm

CFWAD wrote:
WestJet would be the best fit of any Canadian airline to fly into BUR with a reasonable rate of success. They already have a strong leisure presence in SoCal (including WJ Vacations and their partnerships with Disney). Now with a true Business class on the Max's, they could cater to a good mix of Hollywood North traffic for the front and theme park traffic for the rest of the cabin.

I am curious if Flair is paying a premium to USCBP for this service into BUR, given the airport does not have designated customs facilities at the terminal.


Why would Westjet Disney traffic fly here instead of SNA or even LAX? It's probably 2 hours in LA traffic from BUR to Disneyland or Knotts Berry Farm.

I'm not sure this is a particularly premium airport either, is it? There isn't even a single lounge. It is, however, served by other ULCC's like Frontier, Spirit and Avelo.

Finally, customs is pre-clear so why does that matter?

I'm not saying it will work out, could be a shot in the dark, but for Vancouverites wanting a cheap LA weekend getaway to focus on the main Hollywood sights, they will probably consider a ULCC and it could be an interesting addition.
Last edited by alan3 on Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:42 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
alan3
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:37 pm

ElPistolero wrote:

Probably just threw it in there to see how many ex-YEG routes they can get Swoop to copy :P.

The YEG wiki page is hilarious; seems F8’s aggression in AB has ticked off WS so badly, they’re throwing Swoop on to all types of routes (albeit starting a few months after F8, in many cases).



I'm sure Swoop's headquarters has a giant dartboard with Flair's circle logo in the middle. They do seem rather obsessed, following F8 around the country trying to saturate these ULCC routes. First they chased them out of YHM. Now all these additions in F8's main hub YEG. Let me guess, is YKF next? Westjet left the LCC model behind but aren't happy at someone else trying to fill the void.
 
jplatts
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:03 pm

oceanbeat wrote:
For those who think that the ULCC/LCC market in Canada is a myth and will never succeed, think again. If it works somewhere else, I can work here as well.


I had mentioned the possibility of U.S.-based ULCC's such as G4 or NK adding service to Canadian airports that aren't near any U.S. commercial airports such as YYC, YEG, and YQB. The higher costs of operating out of a Canadian airport is also less of an issue in Canadian markets that aren't near any U.S. commercial airports.
 
CFWAD
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:33 pm

alan3 wrote:
CFWAD wrote:
WestJet would be the best fit of any Canadian airline to fly into BUR with a reasonable rate of success. They already have a strong leisure presence in SoCal (including WJ Vacations and their partnerships with Disney). Now with a true Business class on the Max's, they could cater to a good mix of Hollywood North traffic for the front and theme park traffic for the rest of the cabin.

I am curious if Flair is paying a premium to USCBP for this service into BUR, given the airport does not have designated customs facilities at the terminal.


Why would Westjet Disney traffic fly here instead of SNA or even LAX? It's probably 2 hours in LA traffic from BUR to Disneyland or Knotts Berry Farm.

I'm not sure this is a particularly premium airport either, is it? There isn't even a single lounge. It is, however, served by other ULCC's like Frontier, Spirit and Avelo.

Finally, customs is pre-clear so why does that matter?

I'm not saying it will work out, could be a shot in the dark, but for Vancouverites wanting a cheap LA weekend getaway to focus on the main Hollywood sights, they will probably consider a ULCC and it could be an interesting addition.


There is more to SoCal than just Disneyland - and a lot of that is around the BUR/Hollywood area. WestJet can capitalize on their strong presence to push some feed to BUR.

The terminal itself might not be premium - but it's location to Hollywood studios for execs, Malibu for actors, etc. makes it a premium for that industry.

Regardless if the flight has been pre-cleared, the arrival airport still requires USCBP and facilities. This was a major fiasco years ago when Alaska and WestJet attempted SNA without appropriate authorization. I am not saying it can't be done - I can only assume they (Flair) have an arrangement with USCBP but I wonder if it is coming at a premium cost. If it is, seems quite dysfunctional to be operating the flight at the fares they have been selling at.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:02 am

alan3 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:

Probably just threw it in there to see how many ex-YEG routes they can get Swoop to copy :P.

The YEG wiki page is hilarious; seems F8’s aggression in AB has ticked off WS so badly, they’re throwing Swoop on to all types of routes (albeit starting a few months after F8, in many cases).



I'm sure Swoop's headquarters has a giant dartboard with Flair's circle logo in the middle. They do seem rather obsessed, following F8 around the country trying to saturate these ULCC routes. First they chased them out of YHM. Now all these additions in F8's main hub YEG. Let me guess, is YKF next? Westjet left the LCC model behind but aren't happy at someone else trying to fill the void.


Indeed.

Personally think it’s a reflection of WS’ evident realization that they’re more vulnerable to Flair (or Enerjet) than they will publicly admit.

WS made its mark as being a slightly cheaper AC clone with slightly better service recovery. Having built a business model based on pulling price sensitive fliers from AC, it now risks losing some “loyal” customers, most of whom only chose it on price anyway, to ULCCs outflanking it on …errr….price.

Doesn’t help either that unlike AC, it doesn’t have an established premium market and a large international network. Flairs popped up at a very inopportune time for WS in that sense. No dedicated premium clientele. An FF program that’s not fully baked. An international network that’s fairly limited. WS’ generally risk averse mindset hasn’t done them any favor here. So off they go - to bleed money to push the ULCCs out of the way.
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:55 am

alan3 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:

Probably just threw it in there to see how many ex-YEG routes they can get Swoop to copy :P.

The YEG wiki page is hilarious; seems F8’s aggression in AB has ticked off WS so badly, they’re throwing Swoop on to all types of routes (albeit starting a few months after F8, in many cases).



I'm sure Swoop's headquarters has a giant dartboard with Flair's circle logo in the middle. They do seem rather obsessed, following F8 around the country trying to saturate these ULCC routes. First they chased them out of YHM. Now all these additions in F8's main hub YEG. Let me guess, is YKF next? Westjet left the LCC model behind but aren't happy at someone else trying to fill the void.


And why should they leave that market segment alone? We live in a competitive world , compete or die.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:07 am

alan3 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:

Probably just threw it in there to see how many ex-YEG routes they can get Swoop to copy :P.

The YEG wiki page is hilarious; seems F8’s aggression in AB has ticked off WS so badly, they’re throwing Swoop on to all types of routes (albeit starting a few months after F8, in many cases).



I'm sure Swoop's headquarters has a giant dartboard with Flair's circle logo in the middle. They do seem rather obsessed, following F8 around the country trying to saturate these ULCC routes. First they chased them out of YHM. Now all these additions in F8's main hub YEG. Let me guess, is YKF next? Westjet left the LCC model behind but aren't happy at someone else trying to fill the void.

It's a matter of bleeding Flair dry, financially by competing with them.

Swoop, through WestJet has the financial resources to back it up, thanks to their big backer, Onex.

Flair doesn't have the financial resources WestJet can throw at them; fighting a price war without a war chest to do so will only end badly for Flair, much like it did for Jetsgo. Again, Flair is already lobbying the federal government for bailout aid, and Flair is not Jetsgo in terms of network strength.
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:29 pm

They are backed by 777 partners. It will be interesting to watch Lynx and Flair fight for marketshare. Perhaps the two will merge . I even see Jetlines merging with one of them.
 
CFWAD
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:29 pm

Seems T7 Partners are taking further advantage of their discounted Max purchases:
https://www.777part.com/portfolio/bonza-aviation/
https://www.flybonza.com/

Could be a good place to transfer them from F8 if/when they cannot find enough carry-on fees to cover the 18%+ interest on their $120 million loan.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:20 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:
alan3 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:

Probably just threw it in there to see how many ex-YEG routes they can get Swoop to copy :P.

The YEG wiki page is hilarious; seems F8’s aggression in AB has ticked off WS so badly, they’re throwing Swoop on to all types of routes (albeit starting a few months after F8, in many cases).



I'm sure Swoop's headquarters has a giant dartboard with Flair's circle logo in the middle. They do seem rather obsessed, following F8 around the country trying to saturate these ULCC routes. First they chased them out of YHM. Now all these additions in F8's main hub YEG. Let me guess, is YKF next? Westjet left the LCC model behind but aren't happy at someone else trying to fill the void.


And why should they leave that market segment alone? We live in a competitive world , compete or die.


Absolutely.

Just amusing seeing all that “Canadian” WS talent, with its deep knowledge of the “unique” Canadian aviation market, go to full panic stations and copy and paste routes conjured up by a former JetBlue manager who lives in the US, and allegedly knows nothing about the Canadian market.

If there’s no market for those routes, what’s the point in flying them at all. To fly two more or less empty planes instead of one? Or were they just underserved in the first place and these experts didn’t realize it till F8 showed up?

F8 may well be a flash in the pan, but if this is WS/Swoop’s reaction to them, Enerjet’s launch from YYC is going to be real fun to watch. The problem with relying on being the slightly cheaper member of a duopoly is that you’re always somewhat vulnerable to being outflanked on price.

I bet the folk at AC/Rouge find this even more amusing than I do.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:05 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:
They are backed by 777 partners. It will be interesting to watch Lynx and Flair fight for marketshare. Perhaps the two will merge . I even see Jetlines merging with one of them.

Foreign ownership limits in Canada will limit the amount of money 777 Partners can throw at Flair before Transport Canada shuts them down. And with the interest rate 777 is charging Flair for their loans right now, they won't last unless Flair is hyper profitable right now...
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:43 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:
They are backed by 777 partners. It will be interesting to watch Lynx and Flair fight for marketshare. Perhaps the two will merge . I even see Jetlines merging with one of them.

Foreign ownership limits in Canada will limit the amount of money 777 Partners can throw at Flair before Transport Canada shuts them down. And with the interest rate 777 is charging Flair for their loans right now, they won't last unless Flair is hyper profitable right now...


777 Partners seem to be pretty heavily invested in the ULCC space. I guess the question is: will they want to see their highest profile investment go up in flames over inflated interest payments? Is that going to do them more harm or good?

I don’t pretend to know the answer. I’m just not sure how tanking Flair over this 18% interest is in their interest: short-term or long-term. Not particularly bothered about who survives: Lynx or F8.
 
Skywatcher
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:43 am

As I've stated before being charged 18% interest doesn't mean that's what's being paid cash-wise. I suspect it's either all deferred or they're paying in the low single digit range (3-4%?). Nobody pays 18% interest these days. There's trillions of dollars of cash looking for a home right now.

A one year GIC only pays 0.5% right now.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:21 am

Skywatcher wrote:
As I've stated before being charged 18% interest doesn't mean that's what's being paid cash-wise. I suspect it's either all deferred or they're paying in the low single digit range (3-4%?). Nobody pays 18% interest these days. There's trillions of dollars of cash looking for a home right now.

A one year GIC only pays 0.5% right now.

It would be money they would have to refinance down the line, and their loan with 777 Partners is already a loan that they used to refinance their loans. Remember that there are laws regarding how much investment a foreign entity can make into a Canadian airline before it runs afoul of the foreign ownership rules.

In addition, they are already lobbying the federal government for bailout cash; see the Lobbying Registry:

https://lobbycanada.gc.ca/app/secure/oc ... 7802998567

In particular, Andrew Steele, from StrategyCorp Inc. has met with various federal government officials 21 times over the past year regarding Flair Airlines. There are also other lobbyists that have met with federal government officials for an additional 15 times over the past year regarding Flair for the same reasons.

A further check of the Lobbying Registry shows Flair has been very busy, sending lobbyists to meet with the federal government; they've sent 12 lobbyists to meet with the federal government over the past year. Also, Flair is a recipient of the CEWS, the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy, per the CEWS registry as well.
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:56 am

ElPistolero wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:
alan3 wrote:

I'm sure Swoop's headquarters has a giant dartboard with Flair's circle logo in the middle. They do seem rather obsessed, following F8 around the country trying to saturate these ULCC routes. First they chased them out of YHM. Now all these additions in F8's main hub YEG. Let me guess, is YKF next? Westjet left the LCC model behind but aren't happy at someone else trying to fill the void.


And why should they leave that market segment alone? We live in a competitive world , compete or die.


Absolutely.

Just amusing seeing all that “Canadian” WS talent, with its deep knowledge of the “unique” Canadian aviation market, go to full panic stations and copy and paste routes conjured up by a former JetBlue manager who lives in the US, and allegedly knows nothing about the Canadian market.

If there’s no market for those routes, what’s the point in flying them at all. To fly two more or less empty planes instead of one? Or were they just underserved in the first place and these experts didn’t realize it till F8 showed up?

F8 may well be a flash in the pan, but if this is WS/Swoop’s reaction to them, Enerjet’s launch from YYC is going to be real fun to watch. The problem with relying on being the slightly cheaper member of a duopoly is that you’re always somewhat vulnerable to being outflanked on price.

I bet the folk at AC/Rouge find this even more amusing than I do.


Considering that Swoop began operating and addressing this price segment market in June 2018. If anything , WS knew that there was a market there and it there was money to be made and instead decided why just let some random come in first. Swoop was based in Alberta from the get go and it is Flair that decided to move their HQ to YEG from YLW. They came knocking to play in the same arena . Enjoy the competition.

I would say it is Flair playing catch up when they sought more capital investment in 2019 from 777 partners and go on a galavant across the country and expand. Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out with 3 ULCC’s indeed. Who truly knows what Air Canada will do with Rouge domestically.

From an article 3 years ago, AC was quoted as stating “

“We have been preparing to ensure that we have all the tools necessary to offset [low-cost competition] and ensure that we are not negatively impacted,” https://canadianaviationnews.wordpress. ... ition/amp/

I doubt AC will just standby and not respond if Flair begins to encroach on their areas as well. That is what Canadian Airlines did when Westjet was small and was dabbling in their territory. They ignored them.
 
777luver
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:19 am

cirrusdragoon wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:

And why should they leave that market segment alone? We live in a competitive world , compete or die.


Absolutely.

Just amusing seeing all that “Canadian” WS talent, with its deep knowledge of the “unique” Canadian aviation market, go to full panic stations and copy and paste routes conjured up by a former JetBlue manager who lives in the US, and allegedly knows nothing about the Canadian market.

If there’s no market for those routes, what’s the point in flying them at all. To fly two more or less empty planes instead of one? Or were they just underserved in the first place and these experts didn’t realize it till F8 showed up?

F8 may well be a flash in the pan, but if this is WS/Swoop’s reaction to them, Enerjet’s launch from YYC is going to be real fun to watch. The problem with relying on being the slightly cheaper member of a duopoly is that you’re always somewhat vulnerable to being outflanked on price.

I bet the folk at AC/Rouge find this even more amusing than I do.


Considering that Swoop began operating and addressing this price segment market in June 2018. If anything , WS knew that there was a market there and it there was money to be made and instead decided why just let some random come in first. Swoop was based in Alberta from the get go and it is Flair that decided to move their HQ to YEG from YLW. They came knocking to play in the same arena . Enjoy the competition.

I would say it is Flair playing catch up when they sought more capital investment in 2019 from 777 partners and go on a galavant across the country and expand. Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out with 3 ULCC’s indeed. Who truly knows what Air Canada will do with Rouge domestically.

From an article 3 years ago, AC was quoted as stating “

“We have been preparing to ensure that we have all the tools necessary to offset [low-cost competition] and ensure that we are not negatively impacted,” https://canadianaviationnews.wordpress. ... ition/amp/

I doubt AC will just standby and not respond if Flair begins to encroach on their areas as well. That is what Canadian Airlines did when Westjet was small and was dabbling in their territory. They ignored them.


To add to your point of airlines standing by and doing nothing when Westjet was up and coming, AC simply didn't have the resources to deal with Westjet (Canadian merger/bankruptcy) while also very wrongly assuming it was just another startup and they wouldn't last long.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:05 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:

Considering that Swoop began operating and addressing this price segment market in June 2018. If anything , WS knew that there was a market there and it there was money to be made and instead decided why just let some random come in first.


Swoop was created after a “random” - F8 v1 (aka NewLeaf) - showed up, and a couple of years after Rouge started eating into WS US and Sun routes. It was a response to market developments, not based on WS sudden desire to serve the ULCC market.

cirrusdragoon wrote:
I would say it is Flair playing catch up when they sought more capital investment in 2019 from 777 partners and go on a galavant across the country and expand. Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out with 3 ULCC’s indeed. Who truly knows what Air Canada will do with Rouge domestically.


Well, yes, it’s true that a relatively new entrant inevitably ends up playing financial catch-up with the subsidiary of a long-standing incumbent. Not particularly noteworthy IMHO.

On the flip side, Swoop’s recently announced YEG routes mirror a lot of F8 routes. Why didn’t they start them in 2018 or 2019? Didn’t know they existed? Didn’t want to serve them? Regardless, F8 can’t really “catch up” on routes it announced first.

It’s made all the more amusing by some WS’ folks condescending statements about the “foreigners” managing F8. Who would’ve thought Swoop would be copying them so blatantly :D.

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Swoop was based in Alberta from the get go and it is Flair that decided to move their HQ to YEG from YLW. They came knocking to play in the same arena . Enjoy the competition.

From an article 3 years ago, AC was quoted as stating “

“We have been preparing to ensure that we have all the tools necessary to offset [low-cost competition] and ensure that we are not negatively impacted,” https://canadianaviationnews.wordpress. ... ition/amp/

I doubt AC will just standby and not respond if Flair begins to encroach on their areas as well. That is what Canadian Airlines did when Westjet was small and was dabbling in their territory. They ignored them.


I think AC is well aware that its less vulnerable to F8 than WS. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, AC has an established premium market (with a lucrative FF program for premium travellers) and a large international network. It can afford to forgo some basic economy folk, and make up for it upfront or through international connections.

WS has none of those. Sure, it has a premium cabin, sure, and an FF program, and even some international routes, but the net result is an undercooked offering - the established J market isn’t going to come until WS gets serious about joining a global alliance (with the added caveat that the Alliances also know now that WS needs them more than they need it - their worst case is a status quo they’re already comfortable with).

WS’ propensity for dithering (or as WS folk like to characterize it, “being prudent”) makes it the easiest picking. The J cabin, the FF program, the international roll out - all feel like an exercise in “too little, too late”.

Therefore doesn’t surprise me that both Lynx and Flair are targeting it, including in AB. The entire WS appeal is, what, being “slightly cheaper than AC”? Doesn’t leave it well-positioned to take on ULCCs without hammering it’s own yields. After all, Swoop and Rouge, aren’t ideal for the major trunk routes (YOW/YUL/YYZ - YYC/YEG/YVR). They’re as likely to cannibalize AC and WS mainline as they are to take pax off the ULCCs.

AC and Rouge can sit that out. Doubtful they’re going to pull their A32X off lucrative sun destinations to serve Saskatoon from Edmonton - more likely to stick with smaller Air Canada Express. Even more doubtful that they’re going to deploy Rouge on YYZ-YVR etc.

Swoop and WS, meanwhile, looks like they’re going to be stuck in a game of opportunity costs for the next little while - chasing F8 and Lynx out of AB, mostly because they dithered for too long.
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:14 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:

Considering that Swoop began operating and addressing this price segment market in June 2018. If anything , WS knew that there was a market there and it there was money to be made and instead decided why just let some random come in first.


Swoop was created after a “random” - F8 v1 (aka NewLeaf) - showed up, and a couple of years after Rouge started eating into WS US and Sun routes. It was a response to market developments, not based on WS sudden desire to serve the ULCC market.

cirrusdragoon wrote:
I would say it is Flair playing catch up when they sought more capital investment in 2019 from 777 partners and go on a galavant across the country and expand. Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out with 3 ULCC’s indeed. Who truly knows what Air Canada will do with Rouge domestically.


Well, yes, it’s true that a relatively new entrant inevitably ends up playing financial catch-up with the subsidiary of a long-standing incumbent. Not particularly noteworthy IMHO.

On the flip side, Swoop’s recently announced YEG routes mirror a lot of F8 routes. Why didn’t they start them in 2018 or 2019? Didn’t know they existed? Didn’t want to serve them? Regardless, F8 can’t really “catch up” on routes it announced first.

It’s made all the more amusing by some WS’ folks condescending statements about the “foreigners” managing F8. Who would’ve thought Swoop would be copying them so blatantly :D.

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Swoop was based in Alberta from the get go and it is Flair that decided to move their HQ to YEG from YLW. They came knocking to play in the same arena . Enjoy the competition.

From an article 3 years ago, AC was quoted as stating “

“We have been preparing to ensure that we have all the tools necessary to offset [low-cost competition] and ensure that we are not negatively impacted,” https://canadianaviationnews.wordpress. ... ition/amp/

I doubt AC will just standby and not respond if Flair begins to encroach on their areas as well. That is what Canadian Airlines did when Westjet was small and was dabbling in their territory. They ignored them.


I think AC is well aware that its less vulnerable to F8 than WS. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, AC has an established premium market (with a lucrative FF program for premium travellers) and a large international network. It can afford to forgo some basic economy folk, and make up for it upfront or through international connections.

WS has none of those. Sure, it has a premium cabin, sure, and an FF program, and even some international routes, but the net result is an undercooked offering - the established J market isn’t going to come until WS gets serious about joining a global alliance (with the added caveat that the Alliances also know now that WS needs them more than they need it - their worst case is a status quo they’re already comfortable with).

WS’ propensity for dithering (or as WS folk like to characterize it, “being prudent”) makes it the easiest picking. The J cabin, the FF program, the international roll out - all feel like an exercise in “too little, too late”.

Therefore doesn’t surprise me that both Lynx and Flair are targeting it, including in AB. The entire WS appeal is, what, being “slightly cheaper than AC”? Doesn’t leave it well-positioned to take on ULCCs without hammering it’s own yields. After all, Swoop and Rouge, aren’t ideal for the major trunk routes (YOW/YUL/YYZ - YYC/YEG/YVR). They’re as likely to cannibalize AC and WS mainline as they are to take pax off the ULCCs.

AC and Rouge can sit that out. Doubtful they’re going to pull their A32X off lucrative sun destinations to serve Saskatoon from Edmonton - more likely to stick with smaller Air Canada Express. Even more doubtful that they’re going to deploy Rouge on YYZ-YVR etc.

Swoop and WS, meanwhile, looks like they’re going to be stuck in a game of opportunity costs for the next little while - chasing F8 and Lynx out of AB, mostly because they dithered for too long.


Nothing is too little too late. That oversimplifies things. And if that were the case then WS’s growth strategy would have already presented itself as a failure and those international ambitions and premium growth strategy mothballed.

Flair will have to fight for ulcc traffic , now that much is for certain. Count them 1, 2, 3 ulcc’s all wanting the same thing.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:52 pm

Don't forget that Swoop and WestJet have deep pockets thanks to Onex. Flair and Lynx are limited by foreign ownership and investment laws, meaning there is only so much their foreign investment partners can pump in before they run afoul of the laws.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:10 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:

Nothing is too little too late. That oversimplifies things. And if that were the case then WS’s growth strategy would have already presented itself as a failure and those international ambitions and premium growth strategy mothballed.

Flair will have to fight for ulcc traffic , now that much is for certain. Count them 1, 2, 3 ulcc’s all wanting the same thing.


Too early to call them a success either. Think it’s fair to say that a WS that had rolled out a premium product 10 years ago, and had joined OW (or ST) back then, would be a lot less exposed to F8, Lynx etc.

As things stand, this isn’t just shaping up to be a battle between 3 ULCCs; it’s going to be a battle between 3 ULCCs and one aspiring FSC that the market still views as an LCC. That realization seems to have sunk in - hence the apparent panic attack at YEG, with YYC due to follow shortly.

Not fatal for WS or Onex, to be clear, but WS is way more likely to bleed pax and revenue than AC, and that’ll put the brakes on its emergence as an FSC for that much longer. The downside of dithering.
 
alan3
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:14 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:

Swoop was based in Alberta from the get go and it is Flair that decided to move their HQ to YEG from YLW. They came knocking to play in the same arena . Enjoy the competition.

I doubt AC will just standby and not respond if Flair begins to encroach on their areas as well. That is what Canadian Airlines did when Westjet was small and was dabbling in their territory. They ignored them.


Interesting that if Alberta is Swoop's territory they didn't fly these routes before. Many of the Flair YEG routes that Swoop are adding, like YLW, YHZ, YOW, YQR, YXE, were and are already served by Westjet. Another example....YEG-YQQ. There can't possibly be a need for a third airline on a route like that. An addition like that seems fairly deliberate, to saturate the market and flush F8 out. I am curious why on those routes WS and F8 share, Westjet didn't just do what some US carriers do who compete with Spirit or Southwest on certain routes and add a bare bones "Basic Economy" option. Why add a third airline on those routes?

My guess is, having chased Flair of of YHM when Flair wanted to establish a base there, they are trying the same strategy.

I'm also not sure AC will be as threated by Flair. AC seem to more clear in their identities: mainline premium (AC), holiday leisure (Rouge) and turboprop regional connector (Express). WS on the other hand are adding premium routes like LHR to compete with AC, while at the same time showing sudden massive interest in this ULCC expansion they weren't interested in before Flair

Indeed we will see how it plays out. I think there would have been enough room for AC, WS and a ULCC option (F8) in this market. But with Lynx and Jetlines coming along there is certainly potential for saturation that could take them all down. And if that happens and F8 goes under I bet WS will probably reduce many of these Swoop routes back down again.
 
sxf24
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:28 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Don't forget that Swoop and WestJet have deep pockets thanks to Onex. Flair and Lynx are limited by foreign ownership and investment laws, meaning there is only so much their foreign investment partners can pump in before they run afoul of the laws.


Flair and Lynx have Canadian investors: it’s required by law. The headlines just happen to focus on minority US investors.
 
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IceCream
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:05 am

ElPistolero wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:

Considering that Swoop began operating and addressing this price segment market in June 2018. If anything , WS knew that there was a market there and it there was money to be made and instead decided why just let some random come in first.


Swoop was created after a “random” - F8 v1 (aka NewLeaf) - showed up, and a couple of years after Rouge started eating into WS US and Sun routes. It was a response to market developments, not based on WS sudden desire to serve the ULCC market.

cirrusdragoon wrote:
I would say it is Flair playing catch up when they sought more capital investment in 2019 from 777 partners and go on a galavant across the country and expand. Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out with 3 ULCC’s indeed. Who truly knows what Air Canada will do with Rouge domestically.


Well, yes, it’s true that a relatively new entrant inevitably ends up playing financial catch-up with the subsidiary of a long-standing incumbent. Not particularly noteworthy IMHO.

On the flip side, Swoop’s recently announced YEG routes mirror a lot of F8 routes. Why didn’t they start them in 2018 or 2019? Didn’t know they existed? Didn’t want to serve them? Regardless, F8 can’t really “catch up” on routes it announced first.

It’s made all the more amusing by some WS’ folks condescending statements about the “foreigners” managing F8. Who would’ve thought Swoop would be copying them so blatantly :D.

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Swoop was based in Alberta from the get go and it is Flair that decided to move their HQ to YEG from YLW. They came knocking to play in the same arena . Enjoy the competition.

From an article 3 years ago, AC was quoted as stating “

“We have been preparing to ensure that we have all the tools necessary to offset [low-cost competition] and ensure that we are not negatively impacted,” https://canadianaviationnews.wordpress. ... ition/amp/

I doubt AC will just standby and not respond if Flair begins to encroach on their areas as well. That is what Canadian Airlines did when Westjet was small and was dabbling in their territory. They ignored them.

To be fair Swoop is starting new routes like YYG and YQM, and have already started new routes like SAN, all of which aren't served by any other airline out of YEG.
I think AC is well aware that its less vulnerable to F8 than WS. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, AC has an established premium market (with a lucrative FF program for premium travellers) and a large international network. It can afford to forgo some basic economy folk, and make up for it upfront or through international connections.

WS has none of those. Sure, it has a premium cabin, sure, and an FF program, and even some international routes, but the net result is an undercooked offering - the established J market isn’t going to come until WS gets serious about joining a global alliance (with the added caveat that the Alliances also know now that WS needs them more than they need it - their worst case is a status quo they’re already comfortable with).

WS’ propensity for dithering (or as WS folk like to characterize it, “being prudent”) makes it the easiest picking. The J cabin, the FF program, the international roll out - all feel like an exercise in “too little, too late”.

Therefore doesn’t surprise me that both Lynx and Flair are targeting it, including in AB. The entire WS appeal is, what, being “slightly cheaper than AC”? Doesn’t leave it well-positioned to take on ULCCs without hammering it’s own yields. After all, Swoop and Rouge, aren’t ideal for the major trunk routes (YOW/YUL/YYZ - YYC/YEG/YVR). They’re as likely to cannibalize AC and WS mainline as they are to take pax off the ULCCs.

AC and Rouge can sit that out. Doubtful they’re going to pull their A32X off lucrative sun destinations to serve Saskatoon from Edmonton - more likely to stick with smaller Air Canada Express. Even more doubtful that they’re going to deploy Rouge on YYZ-YVR etc.

Swoop and WS, meanwhile, looks like they’re going to be stuck in a game of opportunity costs for the next little while - chasing F8 and Lynx out of AB, mostly because they dithered for too long.
 
TexasAirCorp
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread

Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:16 pm

IceCream wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:

Considering that Swoop began operating and addressing this price segment market in June 2018. If anything , WS knew that there was a market there and it there was money to be made and instead decided why just let some random come in first.


Swoop was created after a “random” - F8 v1 (aka NewLeaf) - showed up, and a couple of years after Rouge started eating into WS US and Sun routes. It was a response to market developments, not based on WS sudden desire to serve the ULCC market.


Are any of the former NewLeaf management team still at Flair?
 
jimbo737
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:43 pm

Despite the brave protestations of ElPistolero, the Flair branded experiment will continue for about 10 days beyond the final infusion of cash from Miami.

The willy nilly expansion with no strategic direction or purpose other than to hope a competitor takes them out of their misery is the same defacto Ponzi scheme that has been observed by anyone who’s closely followed the Canadian industry and all but one of the new entrants over the past 30 years.

Amazingly, these characters steadfastly avoid copying the only strategy that has ever worked for an independent new entrant in Canada. Clearly, they think they know better.

The ending of this movie never changes.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:42 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
Despite the brave protestations of ElPistolero, the Flair branded experiment will continue for about 10 days beyond the final infusion of cash from Miami.


Au contraire, ElPistolero does not protest that F8’s survival is guaranteed; only that there’s no reason to believe that the ULCC model (of which F8 is currently the most prominent example) cannot take root in Canada.

The rest are observations, not protestations, mind. Like the observation that WS (and AC’s) overpriced ULCC-in-all-but-name domestic Y products make actual ULCC products more viable substitutes than anyone would like to admit (probably because of some misplaced sense of flag-waving nationalism).

jimbo737 wrote:
The willy nilly expansion with no strategic direction or purpose other than to hope a competitor takes them out of their misery is the same defacto Ponzi scheme that has been observed by anyone who’s closely followed the Canadian industry and all but one of the new entrants over the past 30 years.


A curious argument given Swoop’s decision to imitate this “willy-nilly expansion with no strategic direction” ex-YEG. Does copying and pasting F8 routes now pass for “strategic direction”?

Or is Swoop so keen to help this Ponzi scheme succeed, it’s decided to burn cash by copying the Ponzi-schemer’s routes?

That said, I am sympathetic to the Ponzi scheme argument. To the extent that I think F8 is different, it’s that it’s “foreign” management seems more serious - and a lot more professional - than the Canadian washouts who typically inhabit this space.

jimbo737 wrote:
Amazingly, these characters steadfastly avoid copying the only strategy that has ever worked for an independent new entrant in Canada. Clearly, they think they know better.

The ending of this movie never changes.


F8 may fail within a year, but Swoop’s panicky reaction has somewhat exposed the myth that the market is impenetrable. AC can ride it out. WS’ on the other hand, it’s long-standing dithering has left it in an odd place - an FSC-wannabe with increasing FSC costs - but stuck with the perception of being just another LCC, exacerbated by very limited benefits for loyalty.

As an aside, I was rooting for WS to join OW or ST decade ago. Never understood why they didn’t, but increasingly suspect it was the outcome either of an incredibly poor strategy of going it alone, or an overinflated sense of self-importance that the Alliances slammed the door on. Either way, beginning to think it’s created a just that little bit more crucial space for ULCCs (F8 or Lynx, don’t care) to make inroads.
 
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IceCream
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:16 pm

To be fair Swoop has started new flights not flown by other airlines like YEG-SAN and now YEG-YYG/YQM.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:02 am

jimbo737 wrote:
The willy nilly expansion with no strategic direction or purpose other than to hope a competitor takes them out of their misery is the same defacto Ponzi scheme that has been observed by anyone who’s closely followed the Canadian industry and all but one of the new entrants over the past 30 years.


You're talking about Porter right. ;)

IceCream wrote:
To be fair Swoop has started new flights not flown by other airlines like YEG-SAN and now YEG-YYG/YQM.


Given all this W0 expansion, are does the mainline collective pilots agreement still cap Swoop to 10 tails? Seems like W0 are stretching themselves thin.
 
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IceCream
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:19 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
The willy nilly expansion with no strategic direction or purpose other than to hope a competitor takes them out of their misery is the same defacto Ponzi scheme that has been observed by anyone who’s closely followed the Canadian industry and all but one of the new entrants over the past 30 years.


You're talking about Porter right. ;)

IceCream wrote:
To be fair Swoop has started new flights not flown by other airlines like YEG-SAN and now YEG-YYG/YQM.


Given all this W0 expansion, are does the mainline collective pilots agreement still cap Swoop to 10 tails? Seems like W0 are stretching themselves thin.

Yeah they seem to be planning a lot of new stuff with only ten frames, especially when 2 or 3 weekly YYG/YQM will pretty much use one plane for an entire day...
 
jimbo737
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:53 pm

Some of the folks on this thread were involved at the highest level with Taxi / Virgin USA / jetBlue when Flair’s current head of planning was in the 5th grade.

Just sayin’…….
 
Whiteguy
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:55 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
The willy nilly expansion with no strategic direction or purpose other than to hope a competitor takes them out of their misery is the same defacto Ponzi scheme that has been observed by anyone who’s closely followed the Canadian industry and all but one of the new entrants over the past 30 years.


You're talking about Porter right. ;)

IceCream wrote:
To be fair Swoop has started new flights not flown by other airlines like YEG-SAN and now YEG-YYG/YQM.


Given all this W0 expansion, are does the mainline collective pilots agreement still cap Swoop to 10 tails? Seems like W0 are stretching themselves thin.


The cap is 30 tails at Swoop, should 16 by summer.
 
sxf24
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:21 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
Some of the folks on this thread were involved at the highest level with Taxi / Virgin USA / jetBlue when Flair’s current head of planning was in the 5th grade.

Just sayin’…….


There’s plenty of airline projects with experienced entrepreneurs that failed, including the pre-MAX version of Flair.

Besides, singling out 1 person when there is a very experienced CEO and COO at the helm seems a bit petty.
 
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IceCream
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Re: Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:45 pm

Where will they get these extra 20 frames? Mainline? They must be planning to replace more WS services in places like YEG over the next couple of years. I wonder if Flair will be able to counter them successfully.
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