IceCream wrote:

Where will they get these extra 20 frames? Mainline? They must be planning to replace more WS services in places like YEG over the next couple of years. I wonder if Flair will be able to counter them successfully.

Nothing confirmed that they will go to the max of 30 aircraft so far but time will tell. The next 5 or 6 are moving over from mainline as far as I know. Those will partly be replaced with more MAX aircraft, lots of deliveries next year from I’ve heard. And, who knows, maybe the A220 rumors will come to fruition soon…plus 4 more 787s still to come.

jimbo737 wrote:

Some of the folks on this thread were involved at the highest level with Taxi / Virgin USA / jetBlue when Flair’s current head of planning was in the 5th grade.

Just sayin’…….

If you’re referring to their Director of Network Planning, that statement is incorrect; he enrolled in university in the same year Virgin America was founded. Interestingly, he’s taken on his Flair role at roughly the same age as one Ben Smith was when he was MD over at AC Tango.

PS - Flair’s COO might be even younger, but still completed grade 5 before VX was founded. Or was revealed as a prodigy in grade 6 and joined University a year later.

Think we’d all be better off if folk here adopted that old British adage: play the ball, not the man. Ad hominems tend to come across as petty.

sxf24 wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

Some of the folks on this thread were involved at the highest level with Taxi / Virgin USA / jetBlue when Flair’s current head of planning was in the 5th grade.

Just sayin’…….

There’s plenty of airline projects with experienced entrepreneurs that failed, including the pre-MAX version of Flair.

Besides, singling out 1 person when there is a very experienced CEO and COO at the helm seems a bit petty.

Given the ineptitude of Flair’s strategic planning since day one, which continues unabated today, regardless of who’s ostensibly providing the adult supervision there, it may seem petty to you, but it’s glaringly obvious to anyone who’s been to the rodeo on multiple previous occasions.

Unless your exec group is stacked with “A” team veterans of the LCC game, and there are precious few of them in the world, you’ve got the “B and C” team.

In Flair’s case, it is the latter. As shocking as it might seem to people north of the 49th, no “A” team LCC veteran is going waste any part of their career in the Canadian market. It’s too small with too little opportunity.

Without “A” team experience, ie people who have succeeded in taking an independent LCC from zero to 30 tails elsewhere with verifiable success, usually manifested by a successful IPO offering, I wouldn’t be particularly optimistic about a new entrant’s future.

They are filled with people who don’t know what they don’t know and make the same stupid mistakes over and over again.

Flair proves this over and over again.

jimbo737 wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

Some of the folks on this thread were involved at the highest level with Taxi / Virgin USA / jetBlue when Flair’s current head of planning was in the 5th grade.

Just sayin’…….

There’s plenty of airline projects with experienced entrepreneurs that failed, including the pre-MAX version of Flair.

Besides, singling out 1 person when there is a very experienced CEO and COO at the helm seems a bit petty.

Given the ineptitude of Flair’s strategic planning since day one, which continues unabated today, regardless of who’s ostensibly providing the adult supervision there, it may seem petty to you, but it’s glaringly obvious to anyone who’s been to the rodeo on multiple previous occasions.

Unless your exec group is stacked with “A” team veterans of the LCC game, and there are precious few of them in the world, you’ve got the “B and C” team.

In Flair’s case, it is the latter. As shocking as it might seem to people north of the 49th, no “A” team LCC veteran is going waste any part of their career in the Canadian market. It’s too small with too little opportunity.

Without “A” team experience, ie people who have succeeded in taking an independent LCC from zero to 30 tails elsewhere with verifiable success, usually manifested by a successful IPO offering, I wouldn’t be particularly optimistic about a new entrant’s future.

They are filled with people who don’t know what they don’t know and make the same stupid mistakes over and over again.

Flair proves this over and over again.

Begs the question: does the Deputy CEO of Wizz - arguably a successful ULCC - qualify as “A team” or”B Team”?

Not surprised he’s come to Canada either - it’s a geographically large, affluent country with probably the highest airfares (and, correspondingly, some of the worst value-for-money) in the developed world. Indigo is venturing in with a similar appraisal. It’s not really clear you need an “A Team” - someone competent might be able to pull it off. Whether they can find a competent Canadian partner is a whole other issue.

The “too small, limited opportunity” isn’t particularly convincing either. The domestic market grew by 20% in four years prior to COVID. As I recall, that was around the same time that some WS hacks here were criticizing AC for not exercising capacity discipline and letting yields drop. Didn’t hurt the market any - the duopoly was certainly raking in “record” profits throughout - and more people flew. Undermines the credibility of the “too small” argument, at any rate .

I suppose it’s a question of whether one sees the Canadian market as static, or as dynamic. Do the same assumptions from WS’ startup 20 years or 10 years ago hold, or do they eventually become outdated? My own assumption is that the market is dynamic - primarily because the market is changing.

More Canadians are travelling and getting exposure not just to ULCC products - but also prices/value-for-money - around the world. And we’re importing around 10% of our population every decade from countries where the ULCC model is commonplace. Sure we’ll have some failures while they figure things out, but one of them a bound to get it right. After all, what may have been mistaken assumptions 10-20 years ago, may not be mistaken assumptions today.

As an aside, your explanations doesn’t explain why Swoop is panicking so much - and probably burning money it doesn’t need to burn in the process…:P

jimbo737 wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

Some of the folks on this thread were involved at the highest level with Taxi / Virgin USA / jetBlue when Flair’s current head of planning was in the 5th grade.

Just sayin’…….

There’s plenty of airline projects with experienced entrepreneurs that failed, including the pre-MAX version of Flair.

Besides, singling out 1 person when there is a very experienced CEO and COO at the helm seems a bit petty.

Given the ineptitude of Flair’s strategic planning since day one, which continues unabated today, regardless of who’s ostensibly providing the adult supervision there, it may seem petty to you, but it’s glaringly obvious to anyone who’s been to the rodeo on multiple previous occasions.

Unless your exec group is stacked with “A” team veterans of the LCC game, and there are precious few of them in the world, you’ve got the “B and C” team.

In Flair’s case, it is the latter. As shocking as it might seem to people north of the 49th, no “A” team LCC veteran is going waste any part of their career in the Canadian market. It’s too small with too little opportunity.

Without “A” team experience, ie people who have succeeded in taking an independent LCC from zero to 30 tails elsewhere with verifiable success, usually manifested by a successful IPO offering, I wouldn’t be particularly optimistic about a new entrant’s future.

They are filled with people who don’t know what they don’t know and make the same stupid mistakes over and over again.

Flair proves this over and over again.

Are you Jim Scott?

Judging by the ongoing lack of any strategic plan to operate a sustainable, net profitable airline business 365 days a year in Canada, I’d say “C”.

The moment I see evidence of these new standalone outfits doing what will have to be done to survive long term in this market given the hoops they all have to jump through, i may change my mind.

But for now, they continue to make the same stupid mistakes of all their predecessors.

Swoop and Rouge are different beasts. Sorry to have to break it to you, but they can do things an independent can only dream of doing, no matter how much pontificating you do to try and rationalize how clever Flair is.

Some of us have seen the movie before and forgotten more than you’ll ever know and understand about the operating economics not to mention the peculiarities and frustrations of new entrant ops in this, (and other) jurisdiction.

Same movie, same ending.

Repeated post

Double post

jimbo737 wrote:

Judging by the ongoing lack of any strategic plan to operate a sustainable, net profitable airline business 365 days a year in Canada, I’d say “C”.

The moment I see evidence of these new standalone outfits doing what will have to be done to survive long term in this market given the hoops they all have to jump through, i may change my mind.

But for now, they continue to make the same stupid mistakes of all their predecessors.

Swoop and Rouge are different beasts. Sorry to have to break it to you, but they can do things an independent can only dream of doing, no matter how much pontificating you do to try and rationalize how clever Flair is.

Some of us have seen the movie before and forgotten more than you’ll ever know and understand about the operating economics not to mention the peculiarities and frustrations of new entrant ops in this, (and other) jurisdiction.

Same movie, same ending.

I think you’ll find that no one is pushing the narrative that F8 is “clever”; only that it’s working on fairly rational assumptions (as, indeed, is Enerjet).To the extent that that is considered “clever”, I don’t know what that’s meant to imply about Canadians’ intellectual acumen.

I’m happy to see these airlines put those assumptions to the test. I’ll concede that they’re probably making some stupid mistakes. Granted, that merely underscores the stupidity Swoop is exhibiting by literally mimicking F8’s stupid mistakes; flying loss-making routes is, by definition, not revenue neutral.

Alternatively, WS/Swoop are feeling the heat and have no option but to react. Which pokes some AE-sized holes in WS’ strategy - 20 years of dominating AB, and yet no real loyalty to show for it. F8 might flame out, but WS is going to burn a lot of cash in the meantime.

I suspect that explains a lot of WS hacks’ animosity to F8 here. Even though F8’s failure is guaranteed in their minds, it’s still going to cost them a pretty penny till that happens. I think it’s misplaced: it’s less F8s fault and more WS’ (past and present management) fault for sticking to an LCC model for too long - and failing to join an Alliance even now.

Just on a hunch, I’m going to guess that the lack of Alliance membership (and consequently, an FF program that actually works) is based entirely on the discrepancy between the Alliance’s estimation of WS’ importance to them, and WS’ sense of self-importance.

And sure, Swoop and Rouge have deeper pockets. The difference between them and F8, though, is that they can’t be used on major routes without cannibalising their own mainline carriers. Which makes them just that little bit les flexible. Not that I’d have any issue with Rouge or Swoop flying YYZ-YVR.

ElPistolero wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

.

As an aside, your explanations doesn’t explain why Swoop is panicking so much - and probably burning money it doesn’t need to burn in the process…:P

Assumptions with nothing to substantiate these comments.

cirrusdragoon wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

As an aside, your explanations doesn’t explain why Swoop is panicking so much - and probably burning money it doesn’t need to burn in the process…:P

Assumptions with nothing to substantiate these comments.

*shrug*

Flair Airlines
Abbotsford
Comox (begins March 29, 2022)
Kelowna
Ottawa
Regina (begins April 14, 2022)
San Francisco (begins April 14, 2022)
San José del Cabo (begins February 2, 2022)
Saskatoon (begins April 15, 2022)
Toronto–Pearson
Victoria
Winnipeg (begins April 15, 2022)

Seasonal:
Las Vegas (begins December 16, 2021)
Palm Springs (begins December 17, 2021)
Phoenix/Mesa (begins December 17, 2021)

WO
Abbotsford
Comox (begins June 9, 2022)
Kelowna (begins May 5, 2022)
Las Vegas
Ottawa (begins April 25, 2022)
Phoenix/Mesa
Regina (begins June 16, 2022)
Saskatoon (begins June 14, 2022)
Toronto–Pearson
Victoria
Winnipeg

Seasonal:
Palm Springs (begins December 16, 2021),
San José del Cabo (begins November 20, 2021)

WO announced the new routes around 3-4 weeks after F8. Either those are viable routes, or they aren’t. If WO can make money on them, no reason to believe F8 can’t. If F8 is going to lose money on them, hard to see how WO will fare much better (especially while F8 is around).

And if those ‘new’ routes were viable all along, why didn’t WO launch them before F8? Dithering?

ElPistolero wrote:

cirrusdragoon wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

Assumptions with nothing to substantiate these comments.

*shrug*

Flair Airlines
Abbotsford
Comox (begins March 29, 2022)
Kelowna
Ottawa
Regina (begins April 14, 2022)
San Francisco (begins April 14, 2022)
San José del Cabo (begins February 2, 2022)
Saskatoon (begins April 15, 2022)
Toronto–Pearson
Victoria
Winnipeg (begins April 15, 2022)

Seasonal:
Las Vegas (begins December 16, 2021)
Palm Springs (begins December 17, 2021)
Phoenix/Mesa (begins December 17, 2021)

WO
Abbotsford
Comox (begins June 9, 2022)
Kelowna (begins May 5, 2022)
Las Vegas
Ottawa (begins April 25, 2022)
Phoenix/Mesa
Regina (begins June 16, 2022)
Saskatoon (begins June 14, 2022)
Toronto–Pearson
Victoria
Winnipeg

Seasonal:
Palm Springs (begins December 16, 2021),
San José del Cabo (begins November 20, 2021)

WO announced the new routes around 3-4 weeks after F8. Either those are viable routes, or they aren’t. If WO can make money on them, no reason to believe F8 can’t. If F8 is going to lose money on them, hard to see how WO will fare much better (especially while F8 is around).

And if those ‘new’ routes were viable all along, why didn’t WO launch them before F8? Dithering?

No , I meant provide proof they are burning and losing money. Tangible proof.

ElPistolero wrote:

cirrusdragoon wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

Assumptions with nothing to substantiate these comments.

*shrug*

Flair Airlines
Abbotsford
Comox (begins March 29, 2022)
Kelowna
Ottawa
Regina (begins April 14, 2022)
San Francisco (begins April 14, 2022)
San José del Cabo (begins February 2, 2022)
Saskatoon (begins April 15, 2022)
Toronto–Pearson
Victoria
Winnipeg (begins April 15, 2022)

Seasonal:
Las Vegas (begins December 16, 2021)
Palm Springs (begins December 17, 2021)
Phoenix/Mesa (begins December 17, 2021)

WO
Abbotsford
Comox (begins June 9, 2022)
Kelowna (begins May 5, 2022)
Las Vegas
Ottawa (begins April 25, 2022)
Phoenix/Mesa
Regina (begins June 16, 2022)
Saskatoon (begins June 14, 2022)
Toronto–Pearson
Victoria
Winnipeg

Seasonal:
Palm Springs (begins December 16, 2021),
San José del Cabo (begins November 20, 2021)

WO announced the new routes around 3-4 weeks after F8. Either those are viable routes, or they aren’t. If WO can make money on them, no reason to believe F8 can’t. If F8 is going to lose money on them, hard to see how WO will fare much better (especially while F8 is around).

And if those ‘new’ routes were viable all along, why didn’t WO launch them before F8? Dithering?

The question remains how many carriers can Canada sustain. In particular how many ULCC’s. Only time will tell -may the best airline(s) survive and win

cirrusdragoon wrote:

No , I meant provide proof they are burning and losing money. Tangible proof.

None. All circumstantial. See post by various WS-affiliated folk on how F8s strategy makes no sense. Or made no sense. Till WO followed suit.

ElPistolero wrote:

cirrusdragoon wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

Assumptions with nothing to substantiate these comments.

*shrug*

Flair Airlines
Abbotsford
Comox (begins March 29, 2022)
Kelowna
Ottawa
Regina (begins April 14, 2022)
San Francisco (begins April 14, 2022)
San José del Cabo (begins February 2, 2022)
Saskatoon (begins April 15, 2022)
Toronto–Pearson
Victoria
Winnipeg (begins April 15, 2022)

Seasonal:
Las Vegas (begins December 16, 2021)
Palm Springs (begins December 17, 2021)
Phoenix/Mesa (begins December 17, 2021)

WO
Abbotsford
Comox (begins June 9, 2022)
Kelowna (begins May 5, 2022)
Las Vegas
Ottawa (begins April 25, 2022)
Phoenix/Mesa
Regina (begins June 16, 2022)
Saskatoon (begins June 14, 2022)
Toronto–Pearson
Victoria
Winnipeg

Seasonal:
Palm Springs (begins December 16, 2021),
San José del Cabo (begins November 20, 2021)

WO announced the new routes around 3-4 weeks after F8. Either those are viable routes, or they aren’t. If WO can make money on them, no reason to believe F8 can’t. If F8 is going to lose money on them, hard to see how WO will fare much better (especially while F8 is around).

And if those ‘new’ routes were viable all along, why didn’t WO launch them before F8? Dithering?

What difference does it make if a competitor launches these same routes after or before? What makes Flair so special that they feel entitled to a rival free ULCC sector? Capitalism is always about the chase. Yes Flair should be prepared to be chased by competitors. Lynx is coming.

cirrusdragoon wrote:

The question remains how many carriers can Canada sustain. In particular how many ULCC’s. Only time will tell -may the best airline(s) survive and win

Not really. The experienced one, who’s forgotten more than we will ever know, has already answered that: F8 and Lynx (and Jetlines) are too “stupid” to survive, so basically the 2019 mix of duopoly + regionals.

The only question that remains, then, is: which of the incumbents will take the bigger beating for the duration of their existence, and how that might affect it’s position relative to the other incumbent.

I think we’re beginning to see the outlines of an answer..

cirrusdragoon wrote:

What difference does it make if a competitor launches these same routes after or before? What makes Flair so special that they feel entitled to a rival free ULCC sector? Capitalism is always about the chase. Yes Flair should be prepared to be chased by competitors. Lynx is coming.

Feel free to duel as many self-created strawmen as you wish, but should point out that literally nobody here has said anything supporting “competition-free” routes.

Merely pointed out that some of those routes were deemed unviable by WS folk - at least until WO decided to join the party. Which either means those routes were actually viable (aka not “stupid”). Or WO’s out burning cash on unviable routes.

Take your pick.

And just to add. Swoop , the concept and planning began way before Flair decided to buy newleaf and run their own ULCC. I would extract that Flair did this in response to knowledge that on April 2017, WestJet announced that it was planning to launch a new airline to enter the growing ultra low-cost carrier market and compete against newleaf. In my opinion Flair was the original chaser of someone else’s initiative.

ElPistolero wrote:

cirrusdragoon wrote:

No , I meant provide proof they are burning and losing money. Tangible proof.

None. All circumstantial. See post by various WS-affiliated folk on how F8s strategy makes no sense. Or made no sense. Till WO followed suit.

= I am the first to say that WS has totally lost the plot, and needs a full clean-up of everyone VP and above, but you're no different being an AC employee no? Same bias.

In terms of Jimbo, I don't get F8's strategy, but there is no way we can call an ex-Wizz team as "Team B".

Saludos,
Alex

ElPistolero wrote:

346fetish wrote:

YEGBNA, looks like very prudent growth to me.

Probably just threw it in there to see how many ex-YEG routes they can get Swoop to copy .

The YEG wiki page is hilarious; seems F8’s aggression in AB has ticked off WS so badly, they’re throwing Swoop on to all types of routes (albeit starting a few months after F8, in many cases).

Either reflects prudent planning by that “foreigner who doesn’t understand Canadian aviation” JetBlue manager at F8, or a lack of prudent planning by those Canadian market experts at Swoop.

Did you not write this?

abrelosojos wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

cirrusdragoon wrote:

No , I meant provide proof they are burning and losing money. Tangible proof.

None. All circumstantial. See post by various WS-affiliated folk on how F8s strategy makes no sense. Or made no sense. Till WO followed suit.

= I am the first to say that WS has totally lost the plot, and needs a full clean-up of everyone VP and above, but you're no different being an AC employee no? Same bias.

In terms of Jimbo, I don't get F8's strategy, but there is no way we can call an ex-Wizz team as "Team B".

Saludos,
Alex

Sorry, I may be misreading that, but I have no affiliation to AC (aside from living in Canada and flying them on occasion). Let’s just say, AC folk and I don’t see eye-to-eye on much .

Just think WS’ odd decisions 10 over the past decade leave it a lot more exposed to ULCCs than some here care to admit (and than AC for that matter). Their ad hominem deflections don’t help their case either.

In any event, he didn’t class the Wizz guy as “Team B”, he classed him as “Team C”.

cirrusdragoon wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

346fetish wrote:

YEGBNA, looks like very prudent growth to me.

Probably just threw it in there to see how many ex-YEG routes they can get Swoop to copy .

The YEG wiki page is hilarious; seems F8’s aggression in AB has ticked off WS so badly, they’re throwing Swoop on to all types of routes (albeit starting a few months after F8, in many cases).

Either reflects prudent planning by that “foreigner who doesn’t understand Canadian aviation” JetBlue manager at F8, or a lack of prudent planning by those Canadian market experts at Swoop.

Did you not write this?

I did, yes.

Where does it suggest that Swoop shouldn’t compete with F8?

Just to add a little fuel to keep the dialogue going....ORD should be going on sale soon.

jcwr56 wrote:

Just to add a little fuel to keep the dialogue going....ORD should be going on sale soon.

You’re adding the fuel all wrong. Here’s how to do it:

Lynx (17 Nov): “We’re not really trying to steal markets from any other carrier,” said Ms McArthur. “We’re really trying to grow the market so we can inspire more people to travel.”

https://simpleflying.com/lynx-air-canada/

Flair (24 Nov): [Flair] has used its strong domestic travel to exploit weaknesses in the greater air travel market and expand services at competitors’ expense.

“Although it’s been a very challenging time, there were also opportunities—there were aircraft available, there were crew available, dislocations in the market, so we could take advantage of that,” Lund said. “In general, low-cost airlines just have been much more dynamic and much more able to capture what demand there has been through the pandemic.”

https://www.adweek.com/brand-marketing/ ... ers-covid/

Very different tones towards the incumbents and competition.

PS - no, I don’t know anything about Adweek or the quality of its reporting. Just found that article while trying to figure out where F8 plans to fly to ORD from. And still none the wiser for it. YYZ?

I’ve yet to see Lynx’s opening move so any commentary on their strategy is premature.

As for Flair, they’ve consistently shown they have no plan at all, other than to hit as many markets as possible with as few air frames as possible.

That’ll provide cash flow and convince the gullible they’re “successful”.

Anyone who’s been around for a while in this market knows that it’s dead easy to fill airplanes about 150 days a year.

It’s filling them the other 215 days at yields and loads that cover fully allocated costs that’s the problem. It’s even more of a problem with 180+ seats and $70bbl oil.

Most tend to bleed cash in that period. I’m sure Flair is no exception.

There’s a way to accomplish this, but it takes time, patience and strict adherence to the strategy. Flair has never shown any inclination other than willy nilly expansion, based on a strategy that worked elsewhere in a geography with access to at least 11x the population of Canada going head to head with a number of carriers that make Canadi>n look like Southwest Airlines in their heyday.

Same movie, same ending.

They’ll operate until there’s not enough cash to meet payroll, pay the fuelers and satisfy the terms of their leases. They’ll be some late evening meetings in Edmonton with management begging Miami to pump more cash in because “we’re so close to turning the corner”. Miami will realize it’s a lost cause, pull the pin. Messages will go out advising staff not to show up for work the next day. Folks will show up at airports across the country to discover Flair counters empty; they’ll be a media circus for a day or two with countless stories of stranded passengers, but it’ll settle down pretty quickly and Flair will be yet another tombstone in the long history of failed carriers in Canada.

Until then, it’s business as usual.

jimbo737 wrote:

I’ve yet to see Lynx’s opening move so any commentary on their strategy is premature.

As for Flair, they’ve consistently shown they have no plan at all, other than to hit as many markets as possible with as few air frames as possible.

That’ll provide cash flow and convince the gullible they’re “successful”.

Anyone who’s been around for a while in this market knows that it’s dead easy to fill airplanes about 150 days a year.

It’s filling them the other 215 days at yields and loads that cover fully allocated costs that’s the problem. It’s even more of a problem with 180+ seats and $70bbl oil.

Most tend to bleed cash in that period. I’m sure Flair is no exception.

There’s a way to accomplish this, but it takes time, patience and strict adherence to the strategy. Flair has never shown any inclination other than willy nilly expansion, based on a strategy that worked elsewhere in a geography with access to at least 11x the population of Canada going head to head with a number of carriers that make Canadi>n look like Southwest Airlines in their heyday.

Same movie, same ending.

They’ll operate until there’s not enough cash to meet payroll, pay the fuelers and satisfy the terms of their leases. They’ll be some late evening meetings in Edmonton with management begging Miami to pump more cash in because “we’re so close to turning the corner”. Miami will realize it’s a lost cause, pull the pin. Messages will go out advising staff not to show up for work the next day. Folks will show up at airports across the country to discover Flair counters empty; they’ll be a media circus for a day or two with countless stories of stranded passengers, but it’ll settle down pretty quickly and Flair will be yet another tombstone in the long history of failed carriers in Canada.

Until then, it’s business as usual.

Will be interesting to see if/when this happens. And to be fair YEG-BNA/YXE/YQR or YYZ-DEN/ORD don't seem like realistic routes for a ULCC.

What northbound traffic are any of their U.S operations producing? Most likely nothing. What vacation packages will they produce for their Mexican destinations?

Prior to their own U.S. launch, WS partnered with Transat Vacations for many years doing charters - digging their heals in and learning the market. Jetsgo did the same with Sunwing Vacations. Zoom ran charters on their shoulder seasons. CanJet with Transat. Currently we have Nolinor/OWG with Hola Sun. Rouge has AC Vacations. Flair has cheap fares until you add your luggage.

You can only do so much with $120 million and we only just got into heavy deicing season in Canada. $153 CAD r/t YVR-YOW in January might be enough to cover an aileron with type I.

IceCream wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

I’ve yet to see Lynx’s opening move so any commentary on their strategy is premature.

As for Flair, they’ve consistently shown they have no plan at all, other than to hit as many markets as possible with as few air frames as possible.

That’ll provide cash flow and convince the gullible they’re “successful”.

Anyone who’s been around for a while in this market knows that it’s dead easy to fill airplanes about 150 days a year.

It’s filling them the other 215 days at yields and loads that cover fully allocated costs that’s the problem. It’s even more of a problem with 180+ seats and $70bbl oil.

Most tend to bleed cash in that period. I’m sure Flair is no exception.

There’s a way to accomplish this, but it takes time, patience and strict adherence to the strategy. Flair has never shown any inclination other than willy nilly expansion, based on a strategy that worked elsewhere in a geography with access to at least 11x the population of Canada going head to head with a number of carriers that make Canadi>n look like Southwest Airlines in their heyday.

Same movie, same ending.

They’ll operate until there’s not enough cash to meet payroll, pay the fuelers and satisfy the terms of their leases. They’ll be some late evening meetings in Edmonton with management begging Miami to pump more cash in because “we’re so close to turning the corner”. Miami will realize it’s a lost cause, pull the pin. Messages will go out advising staff not to show up for work the next day. Folks will show up at airports across the country to discover Flair counters empty; they’ll be a media circus for a day or two with countless stories of stranded passengers, but it’ll settle down pretty quickly and Flair will be yet another tombstone in the long history of failed carriers in Canada.

Until then, it’s business as usual.

Will be interesting to see if/when this happens. And to be fair YEG-BNA/YXE/YQR or YYZ-DEN/ORD don't seem like realistic routes for a ULCC.

BNA makes some sense - i.e., leisure demand (incl ex-BNA - the Canadian Rockies have a bit of cachet down there). The others are peculiar.

Flair has announced a new route between Kitchener-Waterloo and Deer Lake beginning June 8.

markabcan wrote:

Flair has announced a new route between Kitchener-Waterloo and Deer Lake beginning June 8.

That’s going off the board to say the least. YKF-YYT, I can see, but YDF?

Jimbo will have a field day with this one.

markabcan wrote:

Flair has announced a new route between Kitchener-Waterloo and Deer Lake beginning June 8.

Just saw this. Surprised they've added Deer Lake to their network before St. John's. Why Kitchener and not YYZ? I can't imagine many people there are busting to go to Deer Lake of all places so the traffic really seems one way.

I see Deer Lake as a connection point from out west. Lots of Workers from Alberta live on the West Coast of Newfoundland. From my previous life at express I did a few YDF flights and they were full of Oil workers.

Unless Flair plans to offer some form of reasonable connections to Western destinations, I don't understand the YDF-YKF. As of right now, you cannot book anything but the 2x weekly (Wed/Sat) flights. A bookable tag on to a YVR-YKF red eye and vice versa would have made more sense. Guess they are hoping the tech community in YKF will want a convenient domestic escape for the summer.

They do seem to have a lot of darts to throw on that 4th floor tower of theirs at EIA.

CFWAD wrote:

Unless Flair plans to offer some form of reasonable connections to Western destinations, I don't understand the YDF-YKF. As of right now, you cannot book anything but the 2x weekly (Wed/Sat) flights. A bookable tag on to a YVR-YKF red eye and vice versa would have made more sense. Guess they are hoping the tech community in YKF will want a convenient domestic escape for the summer.

They do seem to have a lot of darts to throw on that 4th floor tower of theirs at EIA.

Flair really isn't looking that viable right now. There's a lack of frequency between major markets but quite a few 2 weekly flights between city pairs that don't make sense for a ULCC. Seems like Jimbo is right after all.

Like others, I found this odd. Then I did the one thing that a lot of folk here don't bother doing: I googled it.

Looks like they’ve cut a deal with the airport authority and the Newfoundland government. Even the Premier and the Minister for Tourism showed up for the announcement to tout this as part of their government’s strategy.

“The government of Newfoundland and Labrador has been working with the Deer Lake Airport on this project. Premier Andrew Furey, who was on hand for Friday's announcement, says other jurisdictions are looking to incentivize air travel and look at strategies to breathe new life into the aviation industry. He says the province is working on its own strategy, and tourism plays a big part of that.“

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6273093

https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2021/exec/1202n08/

Doesn’t sound like dartboards (well, not if one knows how to use google), but to each, their own.

Deer Lake = Gros Morne National Park (aka 'the one with the fjord').

But YKF??

Air Canada has daily flights from YYZ to YDF (twice daily during peak periods, as well as daily from YUL and twice daily from YHZ) so Flair flying out of YKF makes sense. The concept of an ULCC flying away from a large metro area has worked well in Europe and the US, why not Canada?

CrewBunk wrote:

Air Canada has daily flights from YYZ to YDF (twice daily during peak periods, as well as daily from YUL and twice daily from YHZ) so Flair flying out of YKF makes sense. The concept of an ULCC flying away from a large metro area has worked well in Europe and the US, why not Canada?

Air Canada also allows connecting itineraries, which Flair doesn't, so AC can feed workers from Newfoundland to the rest of the country and tourists back to Gros Morne. Flair doesn't allow connections, so travellers are on their own if they want to take more than one flight. Their realistic catchment basin for this is just the Kitchener-Waterloo region, which isn't big enough on its own to sustain the route.
AC has multiple daily options to connect to the oil sands for workers through YYZ, YUL, and YHZ, and passengers can book all the way to YMM. Flair will be offering twice-weekly flights and can only get passengers as far as YEG, except that there aren't any flights to YEG on the same day! No worker is going to spend an extra day or two on their commute and pay for hotel rooms if they can't book YDF-YKF-YEG in a single day's travel. On top of that, booking two legs separately, and then finding themselves late for work and on the hook for the cost of the second leg that they miss because of a delay on the first, will result in no repeat customers.
Tying together two small metropolitan regions with limited VFR traffic and minimal economic connection doesn't make any sense unless they're getting an absurd subsidy. Unlike ElPistolero, I don't think living off of temporary subsidies is a viable business model that shows ingenuity.

Today's Globe & Mail:

"Flair Airlines is expanding rapidly, but internal discord and regulatory scrutiny raise questions about its ambitious growth"

“In the fall [2020] we were completely insolvent, and they were going to go and sign on these contracts for these planes.” - ex-CFO who is now the second known ex-F8 executive to sue the airline for wrongful dismissal.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-flying-high-flair-airlines-is-expanding-rapidly-but-internal-discord/

Well, there are a lot of Newfoundlanders in Cambridge, and also a handful of them in Kitchener as well. Is there enough demand for the flights to be successful? I doubt it, but perhaps that's the thinking behind the decision?

aklak wrote:

Air Canada also allows connecting itineraries, which Flair doesn't, so AC can feed workers from Newfoundland to the rest of the country and tourists back to Gros Morne. Flair doesn't allow connections, so travellers are on their own if they want to take more than one flight. Their realistic catchment basin for this is just the Kitchener-Waterloo region, which isn't big enough on its own to sustain the route.
AC has multiple daily options to connect to the oil sands for workers through YYZ, YUL, and YHZ, and passengers can book all the way to YMM. Flair will be offering twice-weekly flights and can only get passengers as far as YEG, except that there aren't any flights to YEG on the same day! No worker is going to spend an extra day or two on their commute and pay for hotel rooms if they can't book YDF-YKF-YEG in a single day's travel. On top of that, booking two legs separately, and then finding themselves late for work and on the hook for the cost of the second leg that they miss because of a delay on the first, will result in no repeat customers.
Tying together two small metropolitan regions with limited VFR traffic and minimal economic connection doesn't make any sense unless they're getting an absurd subsidy. Unlike ElPistolero, I don't think living off of temporary subsidies is a viable business model that shows ingenuity.

“Ingenuity”? Where has ElPistolero said that anything F8 has done is ingenious? They’ve really just done basic stuff - drop into a market with two overpriced ULCC Y products, and try to outflank them on price with a similar product. And add a few new unserved/neglected routes here and there’s. If that’s considered “ingenious”, I don’t know what that says about Canadian aviation’s intellectual prowess.

Don’t know (or care) if they survive - just glad to see them putting basic assumptions to the test - and putting pressure on other (perhaps more financially sound) ULCCs to get going.

As for this particular case, just pointed out that a simple google search reveals that it wasn’t a dartboard approach (as some suggested) - and that F8 was evidently approached by the Newfoundland government and the airport authority for this government “project”. Indeed, it seems like they were chosen precisely because they are an ULCC:

"I think it will be primarily family and relatives, but also tourists so people that may want to come to Newfoundland and Labrador but for whatever reason, the cost is prohibitive," said airport president and CEO Tammy Priddle.”

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6273093

Throwing quite a bit of shade at the duopoly there. Sounds like she and Premier Furey are frustrated by the way the duopoly’s absurd prices are screwing places like Deer Lake / NL on the tourism front.

Full disclosure: the 2-3 times I’ve considered going to NLfrom the east coast, I’ve ended up in Europe instead because the AC / WS airfares are absurd - and to add insult to injury, come with ULCC Y service; I’m definitely not the only Canadian on this forum who’s guilty of that.

Perhaps time to reflect on how ULCCs might be a boon for Canada - for helping regions deliberately neglected (or carelessly exploited) by the “duopoly is good for Canada” crowd. No, ElPistolero doesn’t care if it’s Flair, or Lynx, or Jetlines, or Pivot that succeeds.

ElPistolero wrote:

aklak wrote:

Air Canada also allows connecting itineraries, which Flair doesn't, so AC can feed workers from Newfoundland to the rest of the country and tourists back to Gros Morne. Flair doesn't allow connections, so travellers are on their own if they want to take more than one flight. Their realistic catchment basin for this is just the Kitchener-Waterloo region, which isn't big enough on its own to sustain the route.
AC has multiple daily options to connect to the oil sands for workers through YYZ, YUL, and YHZ, and passengers can book all the way to YMM. Flair will be offering twice-weekly flights and can only get passengers as far as YEG, except that there aren't any flights to YEG on the same day! No worker is going to spend an extra day or two on their commute and pay for hotel rooms if they can't book YDF-YKF-YEG in a single day's travel. On top of that, booking two legs separately, and then finding themselves late for work and on the hook for the cost of the second leg that they miss because of a delay on the first, will result in no repeat customers.
Tying together two small metropolitan regions with limited VFR traffic and minimal economic connection doesn't make any sense unless they're getting an absurd subsidy. Unlike ElPistolero, I don't think living off of temporary subsidies is a viable business model that shows ingenuity.

“Ingenuity”? Where has ElPistolero said that anything F8 has done is ingenious? They’ve really just done basic stuff - drop into a market with two overpriced ULCC Y products, and try to outflank them on price with a similar product. And add a few new unserved/neglected routes here and there’s. If that’s considered “ingenious”, I don’t know what that says about Canadian aviation’s intellectual prowess.

Don’t know (or care) if they survive - just glad to see them putting basic assumptions to the test - and putting pressure on other (perhaps more financially sound) ULCCs to get going.

As for this particular case, just pointed out that a simple google search reveals that it wasn’t a dartboard approach (as some suggested) - and that F8 was evidently approached by the Newfoundland government and the airport authority for this government “project”. Indeed, it seems like they were chosen precisely because they are an ULCC:

"I think it will be primarily family and relatives, but also tourists so people that may want to come to Newfoundland and Labrador but for whatever reason, the cost is prohibitive," said airport president and CEO Tammy Priddle.”

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6273093

Throwing quite a bit of shade at the duopoly there. Sounds like she and Premier Furey are frustrated by the way the duopoly’s absurd prices are screwing places like Deer Lake / NL on the tourism front.

Full disclosure: the 2-3 times I’ve considered going to NLfrom the east coast, I’ve ended up in Europe instead because the AC / WS airfares are absurd - and to add insult to injury, come with ULCC Y service; I’m definitely not the only Canadian on this forum who’s guilty of that.

Perhaps time to reflect on how ULCCs might be a boon for Canada - for helping regions deliberately neglected (or carelessly exploited) by the “duopoly is good for Canada” crowd. No, ElPistolero doesn’t care if it’s Flair, or Lynx, or Jetlines, or Pivot that succeeds.

I wonder what you think of the Globe and Mail article posted...

CFWAD wrote:

Today's Globe & Mail:

"Flair Airlines is expanding rapidly, but internal discord and regulatory scrutiny raise questions about its ambitious growth"

“In the fall [2020] we were completely insolvent, and they were going to go and sign on these contracts for these planes.” - ex-CFO who is now the second known ex-F8 executive to sue the airline for wrongful dismissal.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-flying-high-flair-airlines-is-expanding-rapidly-but-internal-discord/

Edit: @IceCream - ask and ye shall receive.

Fascinating drama. Shoddy journalism - it’s little more than a smear job hit piece - but I’d buy the blow-by-blow account at full price.

Tried taking it seriously, but other than being a poorly structured rehash of the Prescott allegations with some additional details (unproven accusations of verbal harassment and bullying, $129M loan at 18% (was under the impression it was $180M), some non-committal language from the CTA; 5 of F8’s 9 Maxs belong to 777, 4 do not) it descends to tabloid level when it goes after the 777 co-founder, labelling him a “cocaine trafficker” because - as a 22 year old - he was caught carrying 31 g of cocaine for a friend. Not sure what to make of that - Canada and the US both behave in rehabilitative justice and he was sanctioned at the time - so why does it matter, and why is the Globe seeking comments on it?

I guess whoever’s behind this article is trying to paint 777 and F8 guilty by association? Fits nicely with F8’s efforts to make powerful political friends by flying to odd places.

Will make for some fun airplane light reading someday.

ElPistolero wrote:

CFWAD wrote:

Today's Globe & Mail:

"Flair Airlines is expanding rapidly, but internal discord and regulatory scrutiny raise questions about its ambitious growth"

“In the fall [2020] we were completely insolvent, and they were going to go and sign on these contracts for these planes.” - ex-CFO who is now the second known ex-F8 executive to sue the airline for wrongful dismissal.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-flying-high-flair-airlines-is-expanding-rapidly-but-internal-discord/

Edit: @IceCream - ask and ye shall receive.

Fascinating drama. Shoddy journalism - it’s little more than a smear job hit piece - but I’d buy the blow-by-blow account at full price.

Tried taking it seriously, but other than being a poorly structured rehash of the Prescott allegations with some additional details (unproven accusations of verbal harassment and bullying, $129M loan at 18% (was under the impression it was $180M), some non-committal language from the CTA; 5 of F8’s 9 Maxs belong to 777, 4 do not) it descends to tabloid level when it goes after the 777 co-founder, labelling him a “cocaine trafficker” because - as a 22 year old - he was caught carrying 31 g of cocaine for a friend. Not sure what to make of that - Canada and the US both behave in rehabilitative justice and he was sanctioned at the time - so why does it matter, and why is the Globe seeking comments on it?

I guess whoever’s behind this article is trying to paint 777 and F8 guilty by association? Fits nicely with F8’s efforts to make powerful political friends by flying to odd places.

Will make for some fun airplane light reading someday.

Interesting perspective. Do you think flair is viable long term?

I find the Globe article somewhat of a hatchet job as well. I wonder what was paid by Onex to influence the article? Typical.
The mention of a coke bust decades ago for a 22 year old is hilarious.

I'll make a prediction-the CTA will sit on their asses and do nothing about the foreign "effective control" allegation.

I don't know what to make of Flair. I can see both sides of all the arguments about its future but in the meantime go for it!

ElPistolero wrote:

WO announced the new routes around 3-4 weeks after F8. Either those are viable routes, or they aren’t. If WO can make money on them, no reason to believe F8 can’t. If F8 is going to lose money on them, hard to see how WO will fare much better (especially while F8 is around).

And if those ‘new’ routes were viable all along, why didn’t WO launch them before F8? Dithering?

You're fundamentally misunderstanding Swoop's business model. They didn't set up on the routes because someone at WestJet route planning went "Oh! Those are fantastic city pairs! Why didn't we think of that?!" The whole purpose of Swoop is to undermine LCCs, and it doesn't matter if they actually make a profit; they aren't following Flair because those are great routes and they can make money, they're doing it to wreck the competition, even if they run a loss. The fact that Swoop has followed Flair is absolutely NOT evidence that Flair has some genius outsiders who can see parts of the Canadian market that no one else could before. As soon as there are no more ULCCs left, Swoop will cut low-margin routes and raise prices almost to where WestJet's are. Swoop is a knife meant to bleed Flair dry.
WestJet and Air Canada have been run by foreigners for a long time, and quite profitably until 2020, so I'm not sure why you're so adamant about Flair's management being better because they're not Canadian. Why do you have so much contempt for Canadians anyway? Why do you care about the Canadian aviation industry if you think Canadians are so terrible and short-sighted? And for someone who purports not to care about Flair, you sure do spend a lot of time arguing in their favour and hand-waving away all the indications that Flair management doesn't know what they're doing.

IceCream wrote:

Interesting perspective. Do you think flair is viable long term?

I don’t know. I think the ULCC model is viable; I don’t know about F8.

Did this article change anything for me? Not really.

We already knew that the previous management team was pushed out last year; guess the former CFO was one of them. She’s evidently as unhappy as Jim Scott etc about it.

What it doesn’t (or, in fairness, can’t) tell us, is how F8 has been performing since it started operating this year, and what that’s meant for its efforts to raise money, keep investors and vendors onside etc.

There is one noteworthy change though. G&M quotes F8 as saying that Canadians own 58% of F8. That’s lower than what Prescott said it held in its lawsuit (68%), so somethings going on there.

And no, I don’t think F8 is in the cocaine trafficking business, despite the G&M’s bizarre foray into that territory.

Should probably clarify that I have nothing to do with F8, nor will I ever fly them. I just didn’t care much for the xenophobic attitudes towards their “foreign” management (long a rallying cry for for proponents of Canadian mediocrity), nor do I buy the notion that ULCCs can’t succeed in Canada.

There is, however, one conclusion I’ve reached based on this F8 saga: however long F8 lasts for (be it until tomorrow or next the next decade), it will do disproportionate damage to WS (relative to AC) because of WS’ penchant for self-congratulation, and the risk aversion and dithering that have inevitably followed. It’s left WS overly dependent on price sensitive customers, with a product that is easily substitutable by ULCCs. If F8 goes, Lynx will take that role. Either way, I’m really going to enjoy watching how WS reacts.

ElPistolero wrote:

IceCream wrote:

Interesting perspective. Do you think flair is viable long term?

I don’t know. I think the ULCC model is viable; I don’t know about F8.

Did this article change anything for me? Not really.

We already knew that the previous management team was pushed out last year; guess the former CFO was one of them. She’s evidently as unhappy as Jim Scott etc about it.

What it doesn’t (or, in fairness, can’t) tell us, is how F8 has been performing since it started operating this year, and what that’s meant for its efforts to raise money, keep investors and vendors onside etc.

There is one noteworthy change though. G&M quotes F8 as saying that Canadians own 58% of F8. That’s lower than what Prescott said it held in its lawsuit (68%), so somethings going on there.

And no, I don’t think F8 is in the cocaine trafficking business, despite the G&M’s bizarre foray into that territory.

Should probably clarify that I have nothing to do with F8, nor will I ever fly them. I just didn’t care much for the xenophobic attitudes towards their “foreign” management (long a rallying cry for for proponents of Canadian mediocrity), nor do I buy the notion that ULCCs can’t succeed in Canada.

There is, however, one conclusion I’ve reached based on this F8 saga: however long F8 lasts for (be it until tomorrow or next the next decade), it will do disproportionate damage to WS (relative to AC) because of WS’ penchant for self-congratulation, and the risk aversion and dithering that have inevitably followed. It’s left WS overly dependent on price sensitive customers, with a product that is easily substitutable by ULCCs. If F8 goes, Lynx will take that role. Either way, I’m really going to enjoy watching how WS reacts.

Even if it means WS outwits F8? Ahhh the classic arch nemesis story arc.

By the way , what is the root of your disdain for the carrier? What happened?

ElPistolero wrote:

IceCream wrote:

Interesting perspective. Do you think flair is viable long term?

I don’t know. I think the ULCC model is viable; I don’t know about F8.

Did this article change anything for me? Not really.

We already knew that the previous management team was pushed out last year; guess the former CFO was one of them. She’s evidently as unhappy as Jim Scott etc about it.

What it doesn’t (or, in fairness, can’t) tell us, is how F8 has been performing since it started operating this year, and what that’s meant for its efforts to raise money, keep investors and vendors onside etc.

There is one noteworthy change though. G&M quotes F8 as saying that Canadians own 58% of F8. That’s lower than what Prescott said it held in its lawsuit (68%), so somethings going on there.

And no, I don’t think F8 is in the cocaine trafficking business, despite the G&M’s bizarre foray into that territory.

Should probably clarify that I have nothing to do with F8, nor will I ever fly them. I just didn’t care much for the xenophobic attitudes towards their “foreign” management (long a rallying cry for for proponents of Canadian mediocrity), nor do I buy the notion that ULCCs can’t succeed in Canada.

There is, however, one conclusion I’ve reached based on this F8 saga: however long F8 lasts for (be it until tomorrow or next the next decade), it will do disproportionate damage to WS (relative to AC) because of WS’ penchant for self-congratulation, and the risk aversion and dithering that have inevitably followed. It’s left WS overly dependent on price sensitive customers, with a product that is easily substitutable by ULCCs. If F8 goes, Lynx will take that role. Either way, I’m really going to enjoy watching how WS reacts.

In your opinion.