Aside from maybe not being able to get to the airport, is there any impact on the UK aviation?

The rising fuel costs will only impact a small part of 3Q earning. 4Q could be a different story.

Only a few effect because the main reason of shortage is insufficient truck driver to carry petrol from fuel farm to fuel station

and the fuel for major UK airport are supplied via pipeline from nearest seaport

Truck drivers shortage is not a news, many of UK truck drivers come from Eastern European countries but after Brexit many of them left, and Covid-19 rise the demand of drivers further.

chunhimlai wrote:

Only a few effect because the main reason of shortage is insufficient truck driver to carry petrol from fuel farm to fuel station
and the fuel for major UK airport are supplied via pipeline from nearest seaport

No, no, the Government blames us drivers and Covid. It's got absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Nothing at all. Ooh look, a squirrel!

Wonder how they are supplying the ground support vehicles? Do they batch diesel into the jet pipelines?

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Wonder how they are supplying the ground support vehicles? Do they batch diesel into the jet pipelines?

A lot of Diesel GSEs can run on Jet Fuel, the 2 fuels are close in specs.

WayexTDI wrote:

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Wonder how they are supplying the ground support vehicles? Do they batch diesel into the jet pipelines?

A lot of Diesel GSEs can run on Jet Fuel, the 2 fuels are close in specs.

This is repeated often here, and while they are "close" to each other on the distillation scale, the two fuels are rather different in what they do for the engines that operate them. In a pinch...sure...use it. However, would not make a habit of that.

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Wonder how they are supplying the ground support vehicles? Do they batch diesel into the jet pipelines?

That would be tough without ending up with contaminated fuel. You can fuel Diesel vehicles with JP though, but the lack of lubricant doesn't make it a long term solution. On top of being illegal.
But I would expect Airport's can throw enough money at that particular problem.

Best regards
Thomas

Is air freight piling up? I imagine the fuel deliveries to the likes of DHL and Amazon terminals are being disrupted too.
What will be interesting is in some cases diesel fuel/home heating oil will begin to displace natural gas (esp in agriculture). This will have a knock on effect raising jet fuel prices for carriers in the UK

scbriml wrote:

chunhimlai wrote:

Only a few effect because the main reason of shortage is insufficient truck driver to carry petrol from fuel farm to fuel station
and the fuel for major UK airport are supplied via pipeline from nearest seaport

No, no, the Government blames us drivers and Covid. It's got absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Nothing at all. Ooh look, a squirrel!

I'm sorry, I'm a little confused. How is a load of people panic-buying a resource that's not actually in short supply got to do with Brexit?

Poor management - yes Hysterical reporting from an ever awful media - yes. But something that happened 18 months ago - not sure.

airportugal310 wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Wonder how they are supplying the ground support vehicles? Do they batch diesel into the jet pipelines?

A lot of Diesel GSEs can run on Jet Fuel, the 2 fuels are close in specs.

This is repeated often here, and while they are "close" to each other on the distillation scale, the two fuels are rather different in what they do for the engines that operate them. In a pinch...sure...use it. However, would not make a habit of that.

The Thielert/Continental and Austro Engine engines are Diesel engines, based on Daimler-Benz automotive engines, and can run on either Jet Fuel or offroad (red) Diesel fuel.

TUG clearly states on their website that you can run the M1A with the Deutz D2011L04 Tier IV Interim engine on either Diesel or Jet A (Engine Option 2 here).
I guess you can make a habit of it since the manufacturer says so...

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Aside from maybe not being able to get to the airport, is there any impact on the UK aviation?

The rising fuel costs will only impact a small part of 3Q earning. 4Q could be a different story.

I think the energy crisis affects more of the UK than just England - Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are affected too.

WayexTDI wrote:

airportugal310 wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

A lot of Diesel GSEs can run on Jet Fuel, the 2 fuels are close in specs.

This is repeated often here, and while they are "close" to each other on the distillation scale, the two fuels are rather different in what they do for the engines that operate them. In a pinch...sure...use it. However, would not make a habit of that.

The Thielert/Continental and Austro Engine engines are Diesel engines, based on Daimler-Benz automotive engines, and can run on either Jet Fuel or offroad (red) Diesel fuel.

TUG clearly states on their website that you can run the M1A with the Deutz D2011L04 Tier IV Interim engine on either Diesel or Jet A (Engine Option 2 here).
I guess you can make a habit of it since the manufacturer says so...

Are most of the airfields (not just London) are aircraft filled off hydrants or does a tank truck show up?

MohawkWeekend wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

airportugal310 wrote:

This is repeated often here, and while they are "close" to each other on the distillation scale, the two fuels are rather different in what they do for the engines that operate them. In a pinch...sure...use it. However, would not make a habit of that.

The Thielert/Continental and Austro Engine engines are Diesel engines, based on Daimler-Benz automotive engines, and can run on either Jet Fuel or offroad (red) Diesel fuel.

TUG clearly states on their website that you can run the M1A with the Deutz D2011L04 Tier IV Interim engine on either Diesel or Jet A (Engine Option 2 here).
I guess you can make a habit of it since the manufacturer says so...

Are most of the airfields (not just London) are aircraft filled off hydrants or does a tank truck show up?

Most airfields with commercial service use in-ground hydrants for refueling; there is still a surface apparatus (either trailer- or truck-mounted), so there is a need to move those around.

Was just reading the Regional UK thread - how do they get fuel to those smaller cities - pipelines or rail cars?

There is a big fuel pipeline system first created during WW2 that covers much of the UK including major airports. Don't believe the exaggerations you read in the press and from remainiacs, nothing is 'grinding to a halt'

Left the energy industry 20 years ago, but back then wasn't the UK a net exporter of oil and gas?

I heard a refining company is going bankrupt, too ?

scbriml wrote:

chunhimlai wrote:

Only a few effect because the main reason of shortage is insufficient truck driver to carry petrol from fuel farm to fuel station
and the fuel for major UK airport are supplied via pipeline from nearest seaport

No, no, the Government blames us drivers and Covid. It's got absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Nothing at all. Ooh look, a squirrel!

Badly managed, but it’s the irresponsible news media who have caused this thru mass collective panic. The consumer oil industry keep their reserves tight. If people start mass panic buying, guess what? The petrol stations need more delivery tankers and drivers to satisfy demand and the UK suddenly have a wholesale crude oil surge. Not exactly easy if oil tanker ships are arriving from all over the world.

EU countries have 90 days of oil reserves at least, I'm sure the UK still has this (unlike natural gas that they stopped storing). It takes a political decision to use them, I haven't heard it has been done, probably because that's not the problem. There is enough oil to refine, but not enough drivers to deliver the refined products.

There are shortages of truck drivers across many countries throughout the world including in Eastern Europe and most of Europe, so it would be hard to find drivers even through alternative immigration policies.

New York Times: U.K. Fuel Crisis is a Brexit Crisis, Too

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/worl ... hnson.html

While it would be wrong to blame a crisis with global ramifications solely on Brexit, there are Brexit-specific causes that are indisputable: Of the estimated shortfall of 100,000 truck drivers, about 20,000 are non-British drivers who left the country during the pandemic and have not returned in part because of more stringent, post-Brexit visa requirements to work in the country, which took effect this year.
...

Prime Minister Boris Johnson acknowledged as much when he reversed course last weekend and offered 5,000 three-month visas to foreign drivers to try to replenish the ranks (while also putting military drivers on standby to drive fuel trucks, a move he hasn’t yet taken.)
...

It is also geographically selective. Gas stations in Northern Ireland, which has an open border with the Irish Republic (a European Union member), are not reporting panic buying. Similarly, Northern Ireland was unaffected by the recent shortage in supplies of carbon dioxide because its soda bottling plants had access to shipments from continental Europe.

To the OP's question, it gets down to how much aviation fuel relies on truck delivery.

The spot market and futures markets have been climbing steadily for a year as air travel resumed (at least for some markets) but there really isn't a spike. Markets are saying there's fuel: it's a delivery problem.

MIflyer12 wrote:

New York TimesOf the estimated shortfall of 100,000 truck drivers, about 20,000 are non-British drivers who left the country during the pandemic and have not returned in part because of more stringent, post-Brexit visa requirements to work in the country, which took effect this year.
.

I believe that 20,000 comes from a government statistics report. Reportedly between 30,00 & 40,000 licences are held up at the national licencing authority due to the staff still sodding working at home, unlike many private industry staff, with the bulk of the rest coming from retirements of existing staff with replacements delayed as training and tests did not take place due to Covid. So around 20% due to tighter immigration requirements plus apparently also changes to tax rules (IR35) which affect all drivers (UK or otherwise) not directly employed by firms.

OIl and jet fuel haven't spiked liked natural gas has which is up 150% in the States (to $14.71 per mmbtu)
But in England (frm Google)
"In Britain, whose markets closely mirror those on the continent, gas prices are about five times what they were a year ago, at about $25 per million British thermal units, having risen by about a quarter over the last week."

You'll start to see fuel substitution i.e. burning diesel or kerosene in place of natural gas. And that will pressure jet fuel. And unless the US Govt bans the export of LNG, the same could happen here.

People are really getting the wrong impression with this UK fuel problem. While there is a general shortage of truck drivers, and has been for at least 10 years, there’s no shortage of ADR qualified truck drivers who deliver fuel. The recent problem was due to one company (Hoyer) working for BP, who had a very specific problem with its own drivers. The media widely and irresponsibly portrayed this as a huge problem that would affect fuel deliveries across the UK. The usual idiots decided to panic buy thereby draining the stocks down at fuel stations. Today I passed 8 fuel stations and all of them had at least some grades of petrol and diesel.

There was never going to be much impact to aviation as most airports are supplied by pipeline.

MohawkWeekend wrote:

You'll start to see fuel substitution i.e. burning diesel or kerosene in place of natural gas. And that will pressure jet fuel. And unless the US Govt bans the export of LNG, the same could happen here.

There may be some - but not much in the U.S. The U.S. has generally taken oil out of power generation. (Many of) those plants have been permanently retired. There may be some dual-fuel industrial use. Jet fuel has a worldwide market with surprisingly little variation country to country. UK prices aren't meaningfully different from the U.S., Germany or Netherlands today.

The U.S. government isn't going to ban LNG exports. The EIA reports spot prices under $6/million BTU today, and futures don't point to rising prices, either.

MIflyer12 wrote:

MohawkWeekend wrote:

You'll start to see fuel substitution i.e. burning diesel or kerosene in place of natural gas. And that will pressure jet fuel. And unless the US Govt bans the export of LNG, the same could happen here.

There may be some - but not much in the U.S. The U.S. has generally taken oil out of power generation. (Many of) those plants have been permanently retired. There may be some dual-fuel industrial use. Jet fuel has a worldwide market with surprisingly little variation country to country. UK prices aren't meaningfully different from the U.S., Germany or Netherlands today.

The U.S. government isn't going to ban LNG exports. The EIA reports spot prices under $6/million BTU today, and futures don't point to rising prices, either.

Last September the spot price for that same million btu's was $1.92. So we've only tripled the price. It might just be taking a breather. Wait until the first bad weather report - hurricane or cold front. Can you imagine the uproar if gasoline had tripled in price?
Having worked with oil traders in the past - they must be salivating over the thought that they can sell that million btu's in Europe for $25. Assuming they can find a LNG tanker on the market. I've seen them send tankers a two thousand of miles further for a buck difference per barrel.

airsmiles wrote:

People are really getting the wrong impression with this UK fuel problem. While there is a general shortage of truck drivers, and has been for at least 10 years, there’s no shortage of ADR qualified truck drivers who deliver fuel. The recent problem was due to one company (Hoyer) working for BP, who had a very specific problem with its own drivers. The media widely and irresponsibly portrayed this as a huge problem that would affect fuel deliveries across the UK. The usual idiots decided to panic buy thereby draining the stocks down at fuel stations. Today I passed 8 fuel stations and all of them had at least some grades of petrol and diesel.

There was never going to be much impact to aviation as most airports are supplied by pipeline.

It's not idiotic to fear a shortage of something else in the UK when you have had shortages of all kinds of things for months, with the situation worsening not improving.

If you don't need to fill up for another week or don't need to drive to go to work, maybe you can afford not to panic, otherwise...

Aesma wrote:

It's not idiotic to fear a shortage of something else in the UK when you have had shortages of all kinds of things for months, with the situation worsening not improving.

If you don't need to fill up for another week or don't need to drive to go to work, maybe you can afford not to panic, otherwise...

Indeed. If you're a courier, plumber, electrician, builder or truck driver, your livelihood depends on your vehicle. You don't have the luxury of being able to go without it for a week because you were low on fuel when the shortage started.

As for complaints of media hysteria, you can't expect the media to not cover the Prime Minister declaring that there is no shortage and that people should therefore not panic buy.

Stepping back a little, I think this episode shows the dangers of outsourcing jobs that are critical to supply. BP's drivers were in-house, but then someone had the bright idea of outsourcing those positions to squeeze more out of the labor force. The fuel delivery driving jobs were outsourced and put up for tender every now and again. The company that won the tender treated their drivers awfully and when a lorry driver shortage meant that drivers could earn lots more elsewhere, they left en-masse for greener pastures. Leaving BP stations without fuel.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/l ... 069748.amp

Aesma wrote:

airsmiles wrote:

People are really getting the wrong impression with this UK fuel problem. While there is a general shortage of truck drivers, and has been for at least 10 years, there’s no shortage of ADR qualified truck drivers who deliver fuel. The recent problem was due to one company (Hoyer) working for BP, who had a very specific problem with its own drivers. The media widely and irresponsibly portrayed this as a huge problem that would affect fuel deliveries across the UK. The usual idiots decided to panic buy thereby draining the stocks down at fuel stations. Today I passed 8 fuel stations and all of them had at least some grades of petrol and diesel.

There was never going to be much impact to aviation as most airports are supplied by pipeline.

It's not idiotic to fear a shortage of something else in the UK when you have had shortages of all kinds of things for months, with the situation worsening not improving.

If you don't need to fill up for another week or don't need to drive to go to work, maybe you can afford not to panic, otherwise...

There was never a shortage of either fuel or ADR drivers to deliver it. It was entirely a media driven panic which the idiots fell for. They need to get a grip and wise up.

scbriml wrote:

chunhimlai wrote:

Only a few effect because the main reason of shortage is insufficient truck driver to carry petrol from fuel farm to fuel station
and the fuel for major UK airport are supplied via pipeline from nearest seaport

No, no, the Government blames us drivers and Covid. It's got absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. Nothing at all. Ooh look, a squirrel!

I love squirrels!

There is no shortage of fuel. One company had a local supply glitch affecting a small number of filling stations. Hysterical media hype and idiotic behaviour ensured that it became a national issue. I have seen a suggestion that a so-called "whistleblower" in the fuel industry leaked the story to the media in an effort to get the UK government to change its stance on employing foreign drivers. If that is true, irresponsible doesn't begin to describe his/her actions.

Brexit (which I deplore) had nothing to do with it.

Can I also point out to whoever wrote the heading to this thread that "England" is not the same as the UK. There were issues in Scotland and Wales as well as England. Northern Ireland seems to have escaped the worst.

I'm currently visiting family in rural Wales. Over the weekend it was chaos with people scrambling for fuel.

To me it was evident people were panic buying. A family friend runs a petrol station and sure enough, he called it out the same too. People that would normally buy a quarter of a tank were buying a full tank. He went on to say he had another delivery the next day - as the refinery is only 40 miles away in Milford and no delivery issues. Extrapolate the sudden unexpected change in buying habits and you have a shortage...

The media have had a big part to play in panicking people and then relishing in reporting on people fighting on the forecourts. Stories being shared across social media have not helped either. The media meanwhile see a surge in click-through revenue.

Regarding Brexit, there was a government minister on R4 this morning discussing the current issues. He stated that Europe were experiencing similar problems with lorry drivers and the issue in the UK is not unique and as a result of the pandemic and the bouncing back of the economy.

Covid saw many workers change their working habits and in some cases move back to their home countries to be close to their families. Currently things are out of sync.

diamondchap wrote:

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Aside from maybe not being able to get to the airport, is there any impact on the UK aviation?

The rising fuel costs will only impact a small part of 3Q earning. 4Q could be a different story.

I think the energy crisis affects more of the UK than just England - Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are affected too.

Scotland here we've not had anything like the distribution problems felt elsewhere in the Uk (for those not familiar... the Uk makes up Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England, all separate countries or kinda 'states' within the United Kingdom).

I was able to fully fill up at my local station on Tuesday, no queues, no limits on quantity. Coincidently / luckily we have a huge refinery at Grangemouth (20 miles west of Edinburgh) which has the capacity to produce around 9 million litres of fuels per day. As others have mentioned the problem has been distribution of that fuel due to shortages of lorry drivers.

Aesma wrote:

I heard a refining company is going bankrupt, too ?

No this is retail energy companies who effectively act as a middle man between the national grid and the residential supplier. Their business model works on tiny margins but volume of customers. When prices go up they feel the squeeze because their prices are capped by Ofgen meaning they can go into the red quickly and catastrophically. Six companies have failed this week.

In a nutshell this is another media-sponsored headless chicken panic attack which created a surge in demand which is what caused the problem, rather than the supply itself. Keep calm and carry on.

Sandyb123

The petrol shortage may be panic driven but the natural gas one makes me as an American ex-BP employee wonder. Weren't you guys swimming in natural gas just a few years ago?

How much nat gas does an airport like Heathrow consume for heat and are those costs passed on to airlines?

Aesma wrote:

airsmiles wrote:

People are really getting the wrong impression with this UK fuel problem. While there is a general shortage of truck drivers, and has been for at least 10 years, there’s no shortage of ADR qualified truck drivers who deliver fuel. The recent problem was due to one company (Hoyer) working for BP, who had a very specific problem with its own drivers. The media widely and irresponsibly portrayed this as a huge problem that would affect fuel deliveries across the UK. The usual idiots decided to panic buy thereby draining the stocks down at fuel stations. Today I passed 8 fuel stations and all of them had at least some grades of petrol and diesel.

There was never going to be much impact to aviation as most airports are supplied by pipeline.

It's not idiotic to fear a shortage of something else in the UK when you have had shortages of all kinds of things for months, with the situation worsening not improving.

If you don't need to fill up for another week or don't need to drive to go to work, maybe you can afford not to panic, otherwise...

The idiots panic buying fuel in the UK are the same idiots that stockpiled toilet roll last year....

I filled up with petrol on Monday with no queue at the filling station I always use. One thing I did notice was that they weren't selling diesel to car/van drivers and but they were allowing HGV's to fill up with diesel.

Some will say its all a ploy to get people to buy electric vehicles earlier..

MohawkWeekend wrote:

The petrol shortage may be panic driven but the natural gas one makes me as an American ex-BP employee wonder. Weren't you guys swimming in natural gas just a few years ago?

How much nat gas does an airport like Heathrow consume for heat and are those costs passed on to airlines?

The gas thing isn't a shortage. It's more a result of our quasi-competitive energy market. A significant number of households in the UK are on 12 month fixed price tariffs. For the rest there's a cap on prices set by the regulator which is reviewed every 6 months. When wholesale prices shot up, energy companies were simply not able to absorb these losses and some (including mine) have gone bust.

Things would have been helped by holding substantial gas reserves, we only hold about 7 days worth. But not in protecting supply, about half of which is sourced from the UK, but rather in softening the blow of the wholesale price increases.

It would also, I believe, been helped by still being in the European internal market for energy, though I'm not sure how. But this is only tangentially connected to Brexit - IMO we should nationalize our utility providers.

Aesma wrote:

I heard a refining company is going bankrupt, too ?

That will be Essar UK who run Stanlow refinery in Cheshire (used to be a Shell facility)..
Reportedly they are having problems paying a large VAT tax bill due to poor trading during the Covid lockdowns.
The matter is still under negotiation.
Stanlow supplies Manchester Airport among others in the north-west.

jomur wrote:

Some will say its all a ploy to get people to buy electric vehicles earlier..

Our don’t think our government are that clever!

If you believe what a UK government minister is saying, I have an airport to sell you.

There is a global shortage of chips that affects everyone, for example I can't get a graphics card at a decent price. My work laptop needs changing but I can't get the new one for months (a Dell). A colleague ordered a Peugeot e208 electric car and needs to wait 8 months...

However in the EU shelves of fresh food, and even "luxuries" like bottled water, are full. In the UK (except NI), it's a different story.

Yes there is a shortage of HGV drivers in some EU countries, but it's not critical, as Eastern European drivers are happy to work here, and have cabotage rights, they can criss cross the EU making deliveries, without needing all kinds of paperwork, allowing just-in-time supply chains to run smoothly. The UK used to be very involved in this, now it has left the field.

CometOrbit wrote:

Aesma wrote:

I heard a refining company is going bankrupt, too ?

That will be Essar UK who run Stanlow refinery in Cheshire (used to be a Shell facility)..
Reportedly they are having problems paying a large VAT tax bill due to poor trading during the Covid lockdowns.
The matter is still under negotiation.
Stanlow supplies Manchester Airport among others in the north-west.

Thanks for the info, that's what I had heard about. Apparently they got a delay to pay the bill, now their employees are threatening to strike : https://www.cheshire-live.co.uk/news/ch ... y-21720712

Aesma wrote:

If you believe what a UK government minister is saying, I have an airport to sell you.

....

However in the EU shelves of fresh food, and even "luxuries" like bottled water, are full. In the UK (except NI), it's a different story.

I don't know what other Britons are finding, but you wouldn't know there were any shortages at my local Sainsbury's or M&S (North West England). Fresh veg, water, all there. The petrol situation is supposedly worse in the south east, so maybe the shortages are too.

In any case - the average brexiter doesn't view the lack of Lorry Drivers (Fruit Pickers, Hospitality workers etc) as a problem with Brexit, but rather a feature of it. Ultimately, the leave vote was driven by a perception that cheap labour from eastern European countries was driving down living standards amongst the working class. The so-called "metropolitan elite", if they exist as a group, labelled half the country racist as a result, one of the many acts of stupidity from the remain side. And current events give credence to the brexiters point of view. On my local radio station there are repeated adverts for a clothes retailer (Matalan) offering £500 signing on bonuses to work in their warehouse. There's loads of examples of once minimum wage jobs seeing pay rises. Of course, they might not be so pleased if that drives inflation and those gains are wiped out, but let's see.

To throw it back at you, if you believe what the hard-remainers at the Guardian are saying, I've got an airport to sell you, too.

BaconButty wrote:

In any case - the average brexiter doesn't view the lack of Lorry Drivers (Fruit Pickers, Hospitality workers etc) as a problem with Brexit, but rather a feature of it.

That's the latest government spin, anyway.

BaconButty wrote:

Of course, they might not be so pleased if that drives inflation and those gains are wiped out, but let's see.

There won't be meaningful wage increases without price increases. There isn't going to be a productivity boost to offset wage rises, not in a pandemic, not as Britons work themselves into new employment positions.

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Aside from maybe not being able to get to the airport, is there any impact on the UK aviation?

The rising fuel costs will only impact a small part of 3Q earning. 4Q could be a different story.

This energy crisis also effects other parts of the UK. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have also been effected, not just England.