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Cardude2
Posts: 352
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:57 am

I'm betting y'all probably already seen this:

American Airlines, JetBlue, and Alaska Airlines are all joining United Airlines in firing everybody who is unvaccinated as soon as December 8 with no option for testing.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... es-jetblue

American Airlines would be technically going against their union for this as the union has requested for testing to be an option. Letter in Boof02671 post 3 days ago.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 232
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:25 pm

Cardude2 wrote:
I'm betting y'all probably already seen this:

American Airlines, JetBlue, and Alaska Airlines are all joining United Airlines in firing everybody who is unvaccinated as soon as December 8 with no option for testing.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... es-jetblue

American Airlines would be technically going against their union for this as the union has requested for testing to be an option. Letter in Boof02671 post 3 days ago.


In all honesty I think it’s possible that’ll be the end result. There will be severe enough pushback at AA and SWA that the Feds will cave and allow testing under the federal contractor umbrella. Direct federal employees will probably still have to get the vaccine but airline employees may not. You won’t see any change though til like 4 days before the deadline. If you’re an AA UAL employee who is that much adamant the vaccine I would hold out til the final week to see if an 11th hour change happens
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1612
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:00 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
In all honesty I think it’s possible that’ll be the end result. There will be severe enough pushback at AA and SWA that the Feds will cave and allow testing under the federal contractor umbrella. Direct federal employees will probably still have to get the vaccine but airline employees may not. You won’t see any change though til like 4 days before the deadline. If you’re an AA UAL employee who is that much adamant the vaccine I would hold out til the final week to see if an 11th hour change happens



The feds don't need to cave since it's the airlines taking an opportunistic interpretation of the federal contractor rule. In the end it'll be the airlines that cave.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 232
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:06 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
In all honesty I think it’s possible that’ll be the end result. There will be severe enough pushback at AA and SWA that the Feds will cave and allow testing under the federal contractor umbrella. Direct federal employees will probably still have to get the vaccine but airline employees may not. You won’t see any change though til like 4 days before the deadline. If you’re an AA UAL employee who is that much adamant the vaccine I would hold out til the final week to see if an 11th hour change happens



The feds don't need to cave since it's the airlines taking an opportunistic interpretation of the federal contractor rule. In the end it'll be the airlines that cave.


SWA AA and DAL seemed pretty against mandating the vaccine. SWA and DAL especially so, so I’m not certain really that is what is happening. I think it’s more laziness in not wanting to try and work something out by moving around employees to different roles who don’t have direct contact or simply trying to negotiate something with the Feds. Delta may be putting in that effort which is why it’s taking them so long to make the announcement.
 
Dalmd88
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:43 pm

At Delta this week, the frontline did expect the mandate to come out by the end of the week. All we heard was a, "we are looking into the matter." A couple of the AMT's I work with have stated that the moment the mandate comes out, they push the button on retirement paperwork. They are not ready for that step but are steadfast in not getting the vax for various reasons.

Are we US Government contractors? I know at Tech Ops we do a bunch of aircraft visits for the Navy P-8 and the Air Force 737 and 757 aircraft. So in those areas we are definitely in contact with US Government employees. Not sure if the "we are looking into it" means they are trying to only limit the mandate to those in roles like that?

This weeks Tech Ops vax rate has climbed to 81%. We are still the lowest rate for any division in the company I think.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 232
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:47 pm

Dalmd88 wrote:
At Delta this week, the frontline did expect the mandate to come out by the end of the week. All we heard was a, "we are looking into the matter." A couple of the AMT's I work with have stated that the moment the mandate comes out, they push the button on retirement paperwork. They are not ready for that step but are steadfast in not getting the vax for various reasons.

Are we US Government contractors? I know at Tech Ops we do a bunch of aircraft visits for the Navy P-8 and the Air Force 737 and 757 aircraft. So in those areas we are definitely in contact with US Government employees. Not sure if the "we are looking into it" means they are trying to only limit the mandate to those in roles like that?

This weeks Tech Ops vax rate has climbed to 81%. We are still the lowest rate for any division in the company I think.


My info is all secondhand as I know SWA/UAL people who have family or friends at DAL. They continue to be confident DAL mandates it this week but that they’re going to offer a separation package similar to the lower tiered package they offered last year which catered to employees who even had only a few years with the company. The perceived notion among them is that this is what is causing the delay
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:26 pm

I don't think there will be separation packages. It seems counter intuitive to encourage behaviour opposite of what the employer wants...

The timeline is fully vaccinated (last dose in blood 2 weeks) by December 8th. That requires the final jab in blood Nov 24th which could be J&J (which I expect to be in short supply in November due to the mandate). 1st Moderna must be my October 27th. 1st Pfizer by November 3rd. My employer just went more blunt, first jab must be in October or they start the separation paperwork (if unable to get J&J in November, that is the employee's problem).


Dalmd88 wrote:
At Delta this week, the frontline did expect the mandate to come out by the end of the week. All we heard was a, "we are looking into the matter." A couple of the AMT's I work with have stated that the moment the mandate comes out, they push the button on retirement paperwork. They are not ready for that step but are steadfast in not getting the vax for various reasons.

Are we US Government contractors? I know at Tech Ops we do a bunch of aircraft visits for the Navy P-8 and the Air Force 737 and 757 aircraft. So in those areas we are definitely in contact with US Government employees. Not sure if the "we are looking into it" means they are trying to only limit the mandate to those in roles like that?

This weeks Tech Ops vax rate has climbed to 81%. We are still the lowest rate for any division in the company I think.

It is almost impossible for a large company to not be a government contractor. If you do P-8s, or government owned 737s/757s, the Tech Ops and thus delta is a government contractor.

This will get the vaccination rate to a very high fraction for the airlines. It goes off thread, but the question becomes when will passengers have to show proof of vaccination as well as airport (ground, not employed by the airline) staff?

AMTs will be in short supply in 2022. Personally, I doubt Delta will have any issue hiring, but the system will be short and that means the jobs that are lesser pay/desirability, will go begging. But what fraction really won't get the vaccine? UA thankfully only had to let go 320 (plus, IIRC, about 2,000 with exemptions). There were 600 to be let go, so either they finagled exemptions or just had a vaccine. I would assume the ratio of Detla's big talkers vs. reality would be about the same.

https://newjersey.news12.com/united-air ... -announced
 
32andBelow
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:50 pm

We already know what fraction because of UA. It will be a very small fraction
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 232
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:22 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I don't think there will be separation packages. It seems counter intuitive to encourage behaviour opposite of what the employer wants...

The timeline is fully vaccinated (last dose in blood 2 weeks) by December 8th. That requires the final jab in blood Nov 24th which could be J&J (which I expect to be in short supply in November due to the mandate). 1st Moderna must be my October 27th. 1st Pfizer by November 3rd. My employer just went more blunt, first jab must be in October or they start the separation paperwork (if unable to get J&J in November, that is the employee's problem).


Dalmd88 wrote:
At Delta this week, the frontline did expect the mandate to come out by the end of the week. All we heard was a, "we are looking into the matter." A couple of the AMT's I work with have stated that the moment the mandate comes out, they push the button on retirement paperwork. They are not ready for that step but are steadfast in not getting the vax for various reasons.

Are we US Government contractors? I know at Tech Ops we do a bunch of aircraft visits for the Navy P-8 and the Air Force 737 and 757 aircraft. So in those areas we are definitely in contact with US Government employees. Not sure if the "we are looking into it" means they are trying to only limit the mandate to those in roles like that?

This weeks Tech Ops vax rate has climbed to 81%. We are still the lowest rate for any division in the company I think.

It is almost impossible for a large company to not be a government contractor. If you do P-8s, or government owned 737s/757s, the Tech Ops and thus delta is a government contractor.

This will get the vaccination rate to a very high fraction for the airlines. It goes off thread, but the question becomes when will passengers have to show proof of vaccination as well as airport (ground, not employed by the airline) staff?

AMTs will be in short supply in 2022. Personally, I doubt Delta will have any issue hiring, but the system will be short and that means the jobs that are lesser pay/desirability, will go begging. But what fraction really won't get the vaccine? UA thankfully only had to let go 320 (plus, IIRC, about 2,000 with exemptions). There were 600 to be let go, so either they finagled exemptions or just had a vaccine. I would assume the ratio of Detla's big talkers vs. reality would be about the same.

https://newjersey.news12.com/united-air ... -announced


Reality is if you drive 50-100 miles to the middle of nowhere you can easily find any of the 3 vaccines. Maybe one isn’t easily available in a large metro area but anyone saying “I can’t find the J&J anywhere” probably just isn’t willing to drive an hour or two to get it. It’s just one time vs two so it’s not that hard
 
global1
Posts: 552
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:33 pm

I'm hopeful Delta will follow suit soon. I don't really see that they have a choice. They will not risk millions in government contracts over the separation of approximately 300 employees (based on UA numbers). Also, the optics are not good when you've worked so hard to be perceived as as a leader in covid prevention with blocking middle seats, no-fly lists, mask enforcement, etc,,,

I'm way over the unvaccinated not protecting themselves much less caring about those around them. No one is irreplaceable.

Show them the door.
 
32andBelow
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Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:43 pm

global1 wrote:
I'm hopeful Delta will follow suit soon. I don't really see that they have a choice. They will not risk millions in government contracts over the separation of approximately 300 employees (based on UA numbers). Also, the optics are not good when you've worked so hard to be perceived as as a leader in covid prevention with blocking middle seats, no-fly lists, mask enforcement, etc,,,

I'm way over the unvaccinated not protecting themselves much less caring about those around them. No one is irreplaceable.

Show them the door.
it’s possible These carriers will have a bit higher termination rates cus their HQs are in wackier states. But I don’t think it’ll be that much worse
 
Boof02671
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Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:49 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
In all honesty I think it’s possible that’ll be the end result. There will be severe enough pushback at AA and SWA that the Feds will cave and allow testing under the federal contractor umbrella. Direct federal employees will probably still have to get the vaccine but airline employees may not. You won’t see any change though til like 4 days before the deadline. If you’re an AA UAL employee who is that much adamant the vaccine I would hold out til the final week to see if an 11th hour change happens



The feds don't need to cave since it's the airlines taking an opportunistic interpretation of the federal contractor rule. In the end it'll be the airlines that cave.


SWA AA and DAL seemed pretty against mandating the vaccine. SWA and DAL especially so, so I’m not certain really that is what is happening. I think it’s more laziness in not wanting to try and work something out by moving around employees to different roles who don’t have direct contact or simply trying to negotiate something with the Feds. Delta may be putting in that effort which is why it’s taking them so long to make the announcement.

SWA has mandated it this past Monday.


Southwest Airlines says staff must be vaccinated against Covid by Dec. 8 under federal rules

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/04/sou ... covid.html
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 232
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:06 pm

32andBelow wrote:
global1 wrote:
I'm hopeful Delta will follow suit soon. I don't really see that they have a choice. They will not risk millions in government contracts over the separation of approximately 300 employees (based on UA numbers). Also, the optics are not good when you've worked so hard to be perceived as as a leader in covid prevention with blocking middle seats, no-fly lists, mask enforcement, etc,,,

I'm way over the unvaccinated not protecting themselves much less caring about those around them. No one is irreplaceable.

Show them the door.
it’s possible These carriers will have a bit higher termination rates cus their HQs are in wackier states. But I don’t think it’ll be that much worse


Right. Probably 400-500 or so would be a reasonable guess. That’s still bad ahead of the holidays depending what divisions they’re in and people will be jerks too and just get themselves fired so it’s not like you can anticipate who will leave and who will cave last second so you get stuck with vacancies that take 2 months to fill
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:20 pm

So with many people being vaccinated in the first quarter of 2021, what are they going to do going forward? Demand boosters ever X months?
 
32andBelow
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:45 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
So with many people being vaccinated in the first quarter of 2021, what are they going to do going forward? Demand boosters ever X months?

Believe it or not they are going to see what the pandemic is doing. Ideally after the delta wave we go to a more normal lower baseline. And then it could just be your choice wether you want boosters or not. Like the flu shot. People act like they had to commit to the entire pandemic playbook on the first day the virus was sequenced and they aren’t allowed to deviate.
 
global1
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:00 pm

I personally don't see the number going to 500. People 'talk the talk', but when it comes down to 'walk the walk', look at what happened to UA's numbers. Whatever, it is what it is.

We should follow Canada's lead and require that air travelers either be vaccinated or show proof of a recent negative Covid test. Maybe then we will be able to fly without masks and that will put an end to much of the unruly and sometimes aggressive and violent behavior we have all been increasingly subjected to over the last year and a half.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:19 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:


The feds don't need to cave since it's the airlines taking an opportunistic interpretation of the federal contractor rule. In the end it'll be the airlines that cave.


SWA AA and DAL seemed pretty against mandating the vaccine. SWA and DAL especially so, so I’m not certain really that is what is happening. I think it’s more laziness in not wanting to try and work something out by moving around employees to different roles who don’t have direct contact or simply trying to negotiate something with the Feds. Delta may be putting in that effort which is why it’s taking them so long to make the announcement.

SWA has mandated it this past Monday.


Southwest Airlines says staff must be vaccinated against Covid by Dec. 8 under federal rules

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/04/sou ... covid.html

The rules my employer sent out states the Federal government is being is being inflexible. They are going hard after attempted religious exemptions (e.g., is the person proving they are faithful by attending services?) and only a tiny number of medical conditions are approved (all others must comply). I cannot share the document as it contains company proprietary information.

So any hope DL or AA will wiggle out is unlikely. My employers lawyers interpreted that anyone at a government contractor must be vaccinated as it would be too easy to accidentally have them work on government work. The only exception I know is Amazon. The headquarters and groups working government computer services are included, the retail side is currently exempt per my brother who works there.

The goal seems to be to reduce airlines as a vector. So I expect more people to be included in the next round of mandates. Unfortunately, this will get interesting.


Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:22 pm

global1 wrote:
I personally don't see the number going to 500. People 'talk the talk', but when it comes down to 'walk the walk', look at what happened to UA's numbers. Whatever, it is what it is.

We should follow Canada's lead and require that air travelers either be vaccinated or show proof of a recent negative Covid test. Maybe then we will be able to fly without masks and that will put an end to much of the unruly and sometimes aggressive and violent behavior we have all been increasingly subjected to over the last year and a half.

I agree on both points. People will mostly cave.

I think the US will probably skip the testing part and require proof of vaccination or approved exemption (there is another card coming, or a new sticker, in my opinion) for interstate air travel. This will stop a winter wave, but at high cost to airlines.

Lightsaber
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:57 pm

32andBelow wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
I’m very interested to see if they try to mandate boosters next year too. There will certainly be way more pushback if they do and additional people will leave because you’ve got thousands who reluctantly will cave here, they won’t do it again. Sadly due to it being an election year and this whole thing becoming political I’m leaning towards them not doing it but we will find out eventually


Beyond people over 65 and people with comorbidities that put them at elevated risk, most of the US population is not covered by an EUA authorizing a third shot. The pharmaceutical companies are still designing protocols for studies of third shots. There are issues of younger adults being at risk of side effects from mRNA vaccines. It may be that many younger people may not even need a third dose in 6 months or even a year. There may even be a need to do titers to determine antibody levels of individuals in order to decide if particular people need or not need a third shot. That's why the studies are being done. I am in the Moderna phase 3 trial and have been informed that everyone in the trial will be offered a third shot as part of the trial. Later I was informed that at this time the FDA is only authorizing the testing protoco {half that of the first 2 doses) on people with comorbidities that put them at high risk and those 65 and older. There is no way a third shot could be mandated without testing of various populations and evaluation of which populations need it.


They’re approving boosters for anyone that works in a high risk setting including transportation


But approving boosters isn't the same thing as requiring them. I don't think I could agree to a blanket requirement to get a third vaccination. It still needs more study. The FDA backed off of President Biden's idea that everyone should get a third dose at 6 - 8 months. Even in high risk occupations, there are some at less risk than others. The vaccines while very safe have risks for some groups like myocarditis for adolescent and young adult males for the mRNA vaccines and serious blood clots in women of childbearing age for the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5741
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:12 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:

Beyond people over 65 and people with comorbidities that put them at elevated risk, most of the US population is not covered by an EUA authorizing a third shot. The pharmaceutical companies are still designing protocols for studies of third shots. There are issues of younger adults being at risk of side effects from mRNA vaccines. It may be that many younger people may not even need a third dose in 6 months or even a year. There may even be a need to do titers to determine antibody levels of individuals in order to decide if particular people need or not need a third shot. That's why the studies are being done. I am in the Moderna phase 3 trial and have been informed that everyone in the trial will be offered a third shot as part of the trial. Later I was informed that at this time the FDA is only authorizing the testing protoco {half that of the first 2 doses) on people with comorbidities that put them at high risk and those 65 and older. There is no way a third shot could be mandated without testing of various populations and evaluation of which populations need it.


They’re approving boosters for anyone that works in a high risk setting including transportation


But approving boosters isn't the same thing as requiring them. I don't think I could agree to a blanket requirement to get a third vaccination. It still needs more study. The FDA backed off of President Biden's idea that everyone should get a third dose at 6 - 8 months. Even in high risk occupations, there are some at less risk than others. The vaccines while very safe have risks for some groups like myocarditis for adolescent and young adult males for the mRNA vaccines and serious blood clots in women of childbearing age for the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines.

The whole point is no one knows was going to happen next. And to just act like everything is set ins time makes no sense. All of those risks have much higher chance of happening if you get Covid…
 
nwadeicer
Posts: 339
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:40 am

global1 wrote:
I'm hopeful Delta will follow suit soon. I don't really see that they have a choice. They will not risk millions in government contracts over the separation of approximately 300 employees (based on UA numbers). Also, the optics are not good when you've worked so hard to be perceived as as a leader in covid prevention with blocking middle seats, no-fly lists, mask enforcement, etc,,,

I'm way over the unvaccinated not protecting themselves much less caring about those around them. No one is irreplaceable.

Show them the door.


I have a valid, documented medical condition that prevents me from getting the vaccine. If Delta forces me to get one I will be a early retired, very well off, ex employee :)
 
32andBelow
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:46 am

nwadeicer wrote:
global1 wrote:
I'm hopeful Delta will follow suit soon. I don't really see that they have a choice. They will not risk millions in government contracts over the separation of approximately 300 employees (based on UA numbers). Also, the optics are not good when you've worked so hard to be perceived as as a leader in covid prevention with blocking middle seats, no-fly lists, mask enforcement, etc,,,

I'm way over the unvaccinated not protecting themselves much less caring about those around them. No one is irreplaceable.

Show them the door.


I have a valid, documented medical condition that prevents me from getting the vaccine. If Delta forces me to get one I will be a early retired, very well off, ex employee :)

You can get an exemption if you have an actual medical condition.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:08 am

nwadeicer wrote:
global1 wrote:
I'm hopeful Delta will follow suit soon. I don't really see that they have a choice. They will not risk millions in government contracts over the separation of approximately 300 employees (based on UA numbers). Also, the optics are not good when you've worked so hard to be perceived as as a leader in covid prevention with blocking middle seats, no-fly lists, mask enforcement, etc,,,

I'm way over the unvaccinated not protecting themselves much less caring about those around them. No one is irreplaceable.

Show them the door.


I have a valid, documented medical condition that prevents me from getting the vaccine. If Delta forces me to get one I will be a early retired, very well off, ex employee :)


No employer will force you to get one if you have a documented condition. That's the whole point of the ADA exemption framework. The problem here is that so many have made religious exemption claims that fail under examination.
 
Boof02671
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:22 pm

And UA places all of their employees who got a medical or religious exemption on unpaid leave.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:15 pm

While we might need 90+% of total population vaccinated in this country to end the pandemic, I understand that just getting it up to 75% can mean life gets back to normal and we can do most everything we want even without masks. I have read bits and pieces of information saying this, but perhaps someone more knowledgeable could provide better numbers or links.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:36 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
While we might need 90+% of total population vaccinated in this country to end the pandemic, I understand that just getting it up to 75% can mean life gets back to normal and we can do most everything we want even without masks. I have read bits and pieces of information saying this, but perhaps someone more knowledgeable could provide better numbers or links.

I've done my own reading and even the experts disagree. To properly answer goes off topic, this is civAv on just airline vaccination rates, I answered in this thread as best I could:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1464959&p=22990401#p22990401

Lightsaber
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:27 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
No employer will force you to get one if you have a documented condition. That's the whole point of the ADA exemption framework. The problem here is that so many have made religious exemption claims that fail under examination.


The medical condition exemption is well established. It seems the religious exemption isn't quite as well defined by court precedent. If someone wants to push that angle he might get lucky and be awarded years (it'll take a while to progress thru the courts) of back pay. That's pretty risky for one who isn't immediately eligible for generous retirement.
 
ethernal
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:56 am

lightsaber wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
While we might need 90+% of total population vaccinated in this country to end the pandemic, I understand that just getting it up to 75% can mean life gets back to normal and we can do most everything we want even without masks. I have read bits and pieces of information saying this, but perhaps someone more knowledgeable could provide better numbers or links.

I've done my own reading and even the experts disagree. To properly answer goes off topic, this is civAv on just airline vaccination rates, I answered in this thread as best I could:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1464959&p=22990401#p22990401

Lightsaber


Yes, the combination of Delta's R0 around 6 and declining vaccine efficacy from infection (mediated by active neutralizing antibodies, vs. severe disease which remains strong which is mediated by immune memory cells like T-cells) means that herd immunity is dead in the short run. Even if 100% of the population was vaccinated with two doses, R0 could remain above 1 in many environments (of course, boosters change this).

This is why the federal government (and, ultimately, airlines and other large corporations have all changed tact). In June, everyone figured we had a path to exit without causing drama associated with vaccine mandates. Unfortunately, Delta came and primary infection immunity has waned a good bit and so the problem is still "here". And so the government and corporates have had to change their plan: treating COVID as endemic, of which a vaccine-only policy is all that makes sense to minimize risk of spread and harm to employees.

The only ones escaping the mandate long term are those who are near retirement or are able to find employment in an increasingly small niche of the world (primarily small businesses).

97%+ of US airline employees will end up vaccinated. 1-2% will end up having a legitimate exemption. 1-2% will end up being let go. Of those that leave, the majority will be either (a) close to retirement and simply taking an "early retirement" and (b) in low skill and/or low seniority positions where the opportunity cost of departure is low. Data from United supports this (with some outstanding question on what percent of the "exemption" population ends up being denied exemption).

In the end, it's a lot of noise around nothing. While some people have made absurdist beliefs part of their identity, very few people are truly willing to risk their career and livelihood to take a stand in support of misinformation.
 
incitatus
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:19 am

nwadeicer wrote:
I have a valid, documented medical condition that prevents me from getting the vaccine. If Delta forces me to get one I will be a early retired, very well off, ex employee :)


You should be relieved then that a mandate is coming. It is a guarantee that pretty much everyone working around you is vaccinated. Protecting people like you is one main point of herd immunity.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:06 am

Boof02671 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:


The feds don't need to cave since it's the airlines taking an opportunistic interpretation of the federal contractor rule. In the end it'll be the airlines that cave.


SWA AA and DAL seemed pretty against mandating the vaccine. SWA and DAL especially so, so I’m not certain really that is what is happening. I think it’s more laziness in not wanting to try and work something out by moving around employees to different roles who don’t have direct contact or simply trying to negotiate something with the Feds. Delta may be putting in that effort which is why it’s taking them so long to make the announcement.

SWA has mandated it this past Monday.


Southwest Airlines says staff must be vaccinated against Covid by Dec. 8 under federal rules

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/04/sou ... covid.html

And this weekend the Pilots Union at Southwest has filed a lawsuit against it, claiming CBA and RLA violations, and they are having a MASSIVE system meltdown due to the fallout. My sources say it is people burning banked time and vacay before the requirement comes into affect. Take that for what it is worth, hearsay. But it is often correct.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:19 am

32andBelow wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:

They’re approving boosters for anyone that works in a high risk setting including transportation


But approving boosters isn't the same thing as requiring them. I don't think I could agree to a blanket requirement to get a third vaccination. It still needs more study. The FDA backed off of President Biden's idea that everyone should get a third dose at 6 - 8 months. Even in high risk occupations, there are some at less risk than others. The vaccines while very safe have risks for some groups like myocarditis for adolescent and young adult males for the mRNA vaccines and serious blood clots in women of childbearing age for the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines.

The whole point is no one knows was going to happen next. And to just act like everything is set ins time makes no sense. All of those risks have much higher chance of happening if you get Covid…


Currently 2 vaccinations are considered to be fully vaccinated. The risks vs benefits for a third vaccination are still being studied in various groups of people. You can't just say everyone has a higher probability of having the side effects if they get the disease vs getting the vaccine. It's definitely true about people over 65 and groups with serious co-morbidities. Are the criteria for getting third doses going to be determined by politics or by scientific evaluation of vaccine trials?
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:39 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:

But approving boosters isn't the same thing as requiring them. I don't think I could agree to a blanket requirement to get a third vaccination. It still needs more study. The FDA backed off of President Biden's idea that everyone should get a third dose at 6 - 8 months. Even in high risk occupations, there are some at less risk than others. The vaccines while very safe have risks for some groups like myocarditis for adolescent and young adult males for the mRNA vaccines and serious blood clots in women of childbearing age for the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines.

The whole point is no one knows was going to happen next. And to just act like everything is set ins time makes no sense. All of those risks have much higher chance of happening if you get Covid…


Currently 2 vaccinations are considered to be fully vaccinated. The risks vs benefits for a third vaccination are still being studied in various groups of people. You can't just say everyone has a higher probability of having the side effects if they get the disease vs getting the vaccine. It's definitely true about people over 65 and groups with serious co-morbidities. Are the criteria for getting third doses going to be determined by politics or by scientific evaluation of vaccine trials?

Can’t wait until the people standing in line for the 5th injection are complaining about the people that only got three.
 
Newark727
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:42 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Can’t wait until the people standing in line for the 5th injection are complaining about the people that only got three.


Perhaps we should cross that bridge when we reach it, given that there are still quite a few people who have only got zero.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:31 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The whole point is no one knows was going to happen next. And to just act like everything is set ins time makes no sense. All of those risks have much higher chance of happening if you get Covid…


Currently 2 vaccinations are considered to be fully vaccinated. The risks vs benefits for a third vaccination are still being studied in various groups of people. You can't just say everyone has a higher probability of having the side effects if they get the disease vs getting the vaccine. It's definitely true about people over 65 and groups with serious co-morbidities. Are the criteria for getting third doses going to be determined by politics or by scientific evaluation of vaccine trials?

Can’t wait until the people standing in line for the 5th injection are complaining about the people that only got three.


You probably won't need more than 3 shots of the original vaccine. Only if new strains evolve that aren't stopped by the existing vaccines would there be a need to get a 4th or 5th vaccination.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:49 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
You can't just say everyone has a higher probability of having the side effects if they get the disease vs getting the vaccine.


The medical consensus says that is most definitely the case. Billions of doses of the vaccine have been administered statistically insignificant effects profiles, and given the symptom and long-term effects profiles of COVID survivors, this is not even an open question.
 
casperCA
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:59 am

lightsaber wrote:
global1 wrote:
I personally don't see the number going to 500. People 'talk the talk', but when it comes down to 'walk the walk', look at what happened to UA's numbers. Whatever, it is what it is.

We should follow Canada's lead and require that air travelers either be vaccinated or show proof of a recent negative Covid test. Maybe then we will be able to fly without masks and that will put an end to much of the unruly and sometimes aggressive and violent behavior we have all been increasingly subjected to over the last year and a half.

I agree on both points. People will mostly cave.

I think the US will probably skip the testing part and require proof of vaccination or approved exemption (there is another card coming, or a new sticker, in my opinion) for interstate air travel. This will stop a winter wave, but at high cost to airlines.

Lightsaber


Canada is doing the same. I don't believe there is a testing option for passengers.

The two major domestic airlines have also said they are not interested in administering a testing option. So all employees have to be vaccinated.

I think the Canadian government also need to play hard ball with the foreign airlines. The inflight crew have to be vaccinated, if not the can either get right back on the returning aircraft or stay in quarantine hotel.
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:30 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:

SWA AA and DAL seemed pretty against mandating the vaccine. SWA and DAL especially so, so I’m not certain really that is what is happening. I think it’s more laziness in not wanting to try and work something out by moving around employees to different roles who don’t have direct contact or simply trying to negotiate something with the Feds. Delta may be putting in that effort which is why it’s taking them so long to make the announcement.

SWA has mandated it this past Monday.


Southwest Airlines says staff must be vaccinated against Covid by Dec. 8 under federal rules

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/04/sou ... covid.html

And this weekend the Pilots Union at Southwest has filed a lawsuit against it, claiming CBA and RLA violations, and they are having a MASSIVE system meltdown due to the fallout. My sources say it is people burning banked time and vacay before the requirement comes into affect. Take that for what it is worth, hearsay. But it is often correct.


They rolled it into the lawsuit they already filed in August. Their press release acknowledges the weakness of their own hand with the federal mandate now in place… it implies Southwest should have instead given up being a federal contractor instead of complying with the mandate. They can bargain the effects, but trying to stop it outright became pretty futile once the federal mandate came down.

https://www.swapa.org/news/2021/leaders ... e-mandate/
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:36 pm

Folks, keep the discussion airline related. Take other discussion to non-av.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:00 pm

WkndWanderer wrote:
Their press release acknowledges the weakness of their own hand with the federal mandate now in place… it implies Southwest should have instead given up being a federal contractor instead of complying with the mandate. They can bargain the effects, but trying to stop it outright became pretty futile once the federal mandate came down.


It looks like WN was awarded 1755 airport pairs for GSA flying for FY2022. It's just pathological to assert the airline ought to forego that revenue to placate a few hundred obdurate people.

https://www.gsa.gov/travel/plan-book/tr ... rogram-cpp
 
ethernal
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:01 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The whole point is no one knows was going to happen next. And to just act like everything is set ins time makes no sense. All of those risks have much higher chance of happening if you get Covid…


Currently 2 vaccinations are considered to be fully vaccinated. The risks vs benefits for a third vaccination are still being studied in various groups of people. You can't just say everyone has a higher probability of having the side effects if they get the disease vs getting the vaccine. It's definitely true about people over 65 and groups with serious co-morbidities. Are the criteria for getting third doses going to be determined by politics or by scientific evaluation of vaccine trials?

Can’t wait until the people standing in line for the 5th injection are complaining about the people that only got three.


At the end of the day, data will drive the need (or lack thereof) for boosters. It is pretty clear that a third dose of the mRNA vaccines is safe and well tolerated, with a potential asterisk around young men (under 20-25 years old) due to a very small risk of myocarditis (significantly less risk than myocarditis from COVID infection, but given the protection from severe disease from two doses, could warrant more research).

The FDA will ultimately recommend boosters for all (excluding a potential caution for men under 20 or 25); the current decision seems to be driven by a mix of bio-ethics concerns (global vaccine supply), vaccine efficacy messaging concerns, and some degree of uncertainty around the under 20-25 risk-benefit calculation for men under an EUA construct - the risk to them (relative to the benefit) may not be warranted under EUA, even if it will inevitably be approved under the full approval regimen where more efficacy data is available.

In terms of future boosters, the jury is out. There are several possibilities. It is possible...


  • A third dose provides good sterilizing immunity for a long time; many vaccines require three doses, and all immunologists knew the 3-4 week second dose interval was too short to provoke an optimal immune response (the windows were selected to speed the trials to get a product to market quickly, not drive optimal immune response - the fact that Moderna is holding up better is likely due to the longer interval, with some confounding variable to active ingredient dosing)
  • A third dose does not provide good sterilizing immunity for more than a year and COVID continues widespread endemic spread but a three dose regimen cements such a strong secondary immune response that efficacy from hospitalization reaches the high 90s (from high 80s/low 90s) for immunocompetent individuals, turning COVID into a nothing-to-worry-about pathogen from a social, political, and workplace safety perspective (already for those with two doses, health risk is probably lower than that of the flu right now).
  • Between natural infections, two-dose vaccinations, and three-dose boosts, COVID struggles to spread in any meaningful way and cases reach background noise levels resulting in limited workplace spread
  • Worst case, COVID remains widespread endemic, and even with a third dose, COVID remains a big enough issue that annual (or every 2-5 year) boosters are recommended similar to how flu vaccines are recommended annually


Workplace mandates will vary depending on which path of the above. In the event that background spread reaches noise levels, mandates will die off after a second dose (just like mandates were off the table when it looked like herd immunity was in reach back in June). In scenarios (1), (2), and (4), it will likely vary depending on the specific industry and degree of occupational exposure/risk.

In the long run, in the even that the worst scenario (scenario 4), it is likely that hybrid flu-COVID vaccinations will be available which will make getting the COVID vaccine painless.

It is likely that COVID will be a bit of a watershed in terms of workplace respiratory health safety practices. I expect that coming out of COVID, more employers are likely to mandate flu vaccines (the flu does kill a lot of people each year, and causes a lot of absenteeism). And, in the long run, I fully expect improved ventilation and air filtration standards to make its way into OSHA requirements (and building codes). Just like tuberculosis is alleged to have impacted building designs in the early 1900s, so will COVID. And these are excellent things: our buildings are sickness factories.

For new buildings we have over-prioritized energy efficiency without consideration for indoor air quality (you can have both at the same time, but it costs a bit more), and for old buildings many get a pass because of cost of renovation is perceived to be too high (e.g., schools without functioning HVAC systems or any air filtration).

I am veering a bit off topic here, but the point is pretty simple: we're in a changing situation. No one can predict whether or not third doses will end up being required for airline employees, because it depends on what path the virus takes in our society (ability to spread in a 99%+ seropositive community and unknown future mutations), as well as long-term efficacy of the vaccines. These are all unknown parameters. So we should solve for what is known now, which is that two doses of vaccines are certainly a good idea. The airlines (and other large employers) will start there and see what happens from there - and adapt as needed.
Last edited by ethernal on Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:05 pm

ethernal wrote:
And, in the long run, I fully expect improved ventilation and air filtration standards to make its way into OSHA requirements (and building codes). Just like tuberculosis is alleged to have impacted building designs in the early 1900s, so will COVID. And these are excellent things: our buildings are sickness factories. .


Poor ventilation is by far the #1 reason for covid spread. You never hear of anyone tracing their covid back to a flight. Or even on a cruise ship, which supposedly is a "petri dish" for covid. And of course you never hear of anyone getting covid while outside.

Increasing ventilation standards will have many benefits far beyond covid
 
ethernal
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:15 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
ethernal wrote:
And, in the long run, I fully expect improved ventilation and air filtration standards to make its way into OSHA requirements (and building codes). Just like tuberculosis is alleged to have impacted building designs in the early 1900s, so will COVID. And these are excellent things: our buildings are sickness factories. .


Poor ventilation is by far the #1 reason for covid spread. You never hear of anyone tracing their covid back to a flight. Or even on a cruise ship, which supposedly is a "petri dish" for covid. And of course you never hear of anyone getting covid while outside.

Increasing ventilation standards will have many benefits far beyond covid


Ventilation is absolutely huge, and why airplanes are relatively safe environments relative to passenger density. However, don't be fooled: the lack of tracing disease back to flights is primarily because doing so is only possible in low spread environments, not where it is widespread. Contact tracing universally falls apart when you could have run into hundreds of infected people in a given day. Good ventilation will prevent super spreading, but good ventilation on its own is likely not enough to stop spread during extended close contact like you'd have on a long haul flight.

The far less contagious SARS virus spread effectively on a plane (albeit without masks), and there is plenty of evidence COVID can as well despite masking and pre-departure testing. There would be a lot more examples of the New Zealand study, but New Zealand is one of the few places where you can actually do contact tracing due to low spread and the fact that they sequence every positive test allowing genomic lineage discovery.

Which, again, is why at least for customer facing roles vaccine mandates are an absolute no-brainer for airlines. Even in the coldest business-oriented calculation, anything that reduces absenteeism is good. Even getting a common cold sucks for everyone - both the employer and the employee. Which is why I think that there will be increased focus on health factors in all environments. Which is good. There is no need to normalize respiratory disease, which has negative impacts for billions every year.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5741
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:40 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
ethernal wrote:
And, in the long run, I fully expect improved ventilation and air filtration standards to make its way into OSHA requirements (and building codes). Just like tuberculosis is alleged to have impacted building designs in the early 1900s, so will COVID. And these are excellent things: our buildings are sickness factories. .


Poor ventilation is by far the #1 reason for covid spread. You never hear of anyone tracing their covid back to a flight. Or even on a cruise ship, which supposedly is a "petri dish" for covid. And of course you never hear of anyone getting covid while outside.

Increasing ventilation standards will have many benefits far beyond covid
what? Do you not remember the beginning of Covid when there was massive outbreaks on cruise ships?
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:55 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
ethernal wrote:
And, in the long run, I fully expect improved ventilation and air filtration standards to make its way into OSHA requirements (and building codes). Just like tuberculosis is alleged to have impacted building designs in the early 1900s, so will COVID. And these are excellent things: our buildings are sickness factories. .


Poor ventilation is by far the #1 reason for covid spread. You never hear of anyone tracing their covid back to a flight. Or even on a cruise ship, which supposedly is a "petri dish" for covid. And of course you never hear of anyone getting covid while outside.

Increasing ventilation standards will have many benefits far beyond covid

Numerous studies have been conducted which found a risk for viral transmission on aircraft, particularly long haul flights.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerow ... 48d75f76a9
https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerow ... e-flights/
 
WkndWanderer
Posts: 355
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:52 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
Their press release acknowledges the weakness of their own hand with the federal mandate now in place… it implies Southwest should have instead given up being a federal contractor instead of complying with the mandate. They can bargain the effects, but trying to stop it outright became pretty futile once the federal mandate came down.


It looks like WN was awarded 1755 airport pairs for GSA flying for FY2022. It's just pathological to assert the airline ought to forego that revenue to placate a few hundred obdurate people.

https://www.gsa.gov/travel/plan-book/tr ... rogram-cpp


The idea that somehow the company should give up government contracts or fight contractor requirements, hurting the airline, seems like it should be a red flag for their vaccinated pilots and the other employee groups. SWAPA is risking creating a rift in their own union with what many will see as “the patients have taken over the asylum” positioning.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:14 pm

WkndWanderer wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
WkndWanderer wrote:
Their press release acknowledges the weakness of their own hand with the federal mandate now in place… it implies Southwest should have instead given up being a federal contractor instead of complying with the mandate. They can bargain the effects, but trying to stop it outright became pretty futile once the federal mandate came down.


It looks like WN was awarded 1755 airport pairs for GSA flying for FY2022. It's just pathological to assert the airline ought to forego that revenue to placate a few hundred obdurate people.

https://www.gsa.gov/travel/plan-book/tr ... rogram-cpp


The idea that somehow the company should give up government contracts or fight contractor requirements, hurting the airline, seems like it should be a red flag for their vaccinated pilots and the other employee groups. SWAPA is risking creating a rift in their own union with what many will see as “the patients have taken over the asylum” positioning.

Well politics have divided the nation so why not companies?

And it is purely politics. Nothing else.

If it were truly something high-minded "My body, my life, my choice" etc. then why on earth are these exact same people fine with every other medical and lifestyle control element imposed upon them by the job and regulations?

Sure it is your choice. But then why put up with having to have an annual medical? And why not smoke/ingested pot when you want? It is legal in many states and isn't really harmful is it? And then there is drinking, why is it a big deal? It's my body, I know what I can handle, the company shouldn't be involved (of course honestly, that is a true problem for some). And re-currency and check rides and training, why do all that? It is the persons choice to do what they want. So by not following these rules that have been imposed on them they are choosing to not be employed by the airline.

Tugg
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2691
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:07 pm

ethernal wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
ethernal wrote:
And, in the long run, I fully expect improved ventilation and air filtration standards to make its way into OSHA requirements (and building codes). Just like tuberculosis is alleged to have impacted building designs in the early 1900s, so will COVID. And these are excellent things: our buildings are sickness factories. .


Poor ventilation is by far the #1 reason for covid spread. You never hear of anyone tracing their covid back to a flight. Or even on a cruise ship, which supposedly is a "petri dish" for covid. And of course you never hear of anyone getting covid while outside.

Increasing ventilation standards will have many benefits far beyond covid


Ventilation is absolutely huge, and why airplanes are relatively safe environments relative to passenger density. However, don't be fooled: the lack of tracing disease back to flights is primarily because doing so is only possible in low spread environments, not where it is widespread. Contact tracing universally falls apart when you could have run into hundreds of infected people in a given day. Good ventilation will prevent super spreading, but good ventilation on its own is likely not enough to stop spread during extended close contact like you'd have on a long haul flight.

The far less contagious SARS virus spread effectively on a plane (albeit without masks), and there is plenty of evidence COVID can as well despite masking and pre-departure testing. There would be a lot more examples of the New Zealand study, but New Zealand is one of the few places where you can actually do contact tracing due to low spread and the fact that they sequence every positive test allowing genomic lineage discovery.

Which, again, is why at least for customer facing roles vaccine mandates are an absolute no-brainer for airlines. Even in the coldest business-oriented calculation, anything that reduces absenteeism is good. Even getting a common cold sucks for everyone - both the employer and the employee. Which is why I think that there will be increased focus on health factors in all environments. Which is good. There is no need to normalize respiratory disease, which has negative impacts for billions every year.


Ventilation sufficient to make big differences greatly increases the cost to operate the HVAC system. Most modern systems monitor CO2 levels in the return air and adjust the flow accordingly. Otherwise the system needs to be set for the standard occupancy, ie, every seat occupied. A church with 500 seats takes over 5,000 CFM of outside air, that in the winter needs to be heated by 40F during the winter, and cooled by 20F in the summer. With the CO2 monitoring the room adjusts to the days 100 occupants, not 500 - a huge saving.

But this is still quite insufficient, surgical suites need 5 air changes per hour of outside air, not the 1 air change for an office. Further the in room ventilation needs to be 20 air changes per hour to get the air velocity higher, and the flow needs to be a uniform downward. Virus particles are basically weightless and the high flows are needed to knock them to the floor. Filtering needs to be MERV11, not all the way to HEPA but still a lot of fan head to push thru the filters.

I believe airplanes are 2 pass, 50% of the air is fresh, 50% returned with all filtered at the MERV11 to HEPA levels, which is a good ventilation consideration.

The industry has spent 20 years reducing ventilation to reduce the enormous cost, now it is going back up.
 
ethernal
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Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:58 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Ventilation sufficient to make big differences greatly increases the cost to operate the HVAC system. Most modern systems monitor CO2 levels in the return air and adjust the flow accordingly. Otherwise the system needs to be set for the standard occupancy, ie, every seat occupied. A church with 500 seats takes over 5,000 CFM of outside air, that in the winter needs to be heated by 40F during the winter, and cooled by 20F in the summer. With the CO2 monitoring the room adjusts to the days 100 occupants, not 500 - a huge saving.

But this is still quite insufficient, surgical suites need 5 air changes per hour of outside air, not the 1 air change for an office. Further the in room ventilation needs to be 20 air changes per hour to get the air velocity higher, and the flow needs to be a uniform downward. Virus particles are basically weightless and the high flows are needed to knock them to the floor. Filtering needs to be MERV11, not all the way to HEPA but still a lot of fan head to push thru the filters.

I believe airplanes are 2 pass, 50% of the air is fresh, 50% returned with all filtered at the MERV11 to HEPA levels, which is a good ventilation consideration.

The industry has spent 20 years reducing ventilation to reduce the enormous cost, now it is going back up.


Outside air exchange will always be augmented by recirculated filtration. That said, even for outdoor air exchange, the cost of operation isn't as dramatic as you make it sound for outside air exchange: modern heat exchangers are very good at getting heat losses down to only a couple of degrees with the other cost being a bit higher pressure loss running through the exchanger. It's not heating up air by 40 degrees, it's heating up air by 2-3 degrees. In aggregate, you're talking about a few percentage points energy going to pressure for the heat exchanger and a few percentage points of loss from imperfect heat exchange per extra air replacement cycle.

With modern heat exchangers and low-loss duct work, you can increase cycles by 5X with much of that being outside air with only a 15-20% increase in energy use. While that isn't a trivial increase, it isn't like you're increasing air conditioning costs by 3-5 times. But unfortunately high quality heat exchangers, high quality ducting, and properly sized fans cost money (and it's an up front cost). So without regulatory pressure (just like with energy efficiency standards), you won't see movement in this space outside of potentially Class A office space which already typically has above code filtration/ventilation (albeit still not enough).

MERV 13 is really the (non-HEPA) gold standard if you want to get virus particles, although MERV 11 is better than the garbage MERV 8 that is the most common filtration that is used. MERV-8 probably does little to stop aerosols. I switched from MERV 8 in my house to MERV 13 a few years back and the difference in air quality is noticeable. UV lights are interesting (and can be useful for odor control as well), but I trust filtration more because not having a filter damages equipment, and an old filter reduces system efficacy (costing $$) - so it's self-sorting problem: filters get replaced. I bet UV-C filtration has a tendency to end up not getting replaced somewhat frequently.

All that said, improved ventilation and filtration are long term partial solutions to a short term problem (COVID, although better ventilation will help reduce disease burden for all kinds of respiratory infections). Airports still have crap air filtration, and I bet airline's offices aren't exactly doing full air cycles every 3 minutes like planes. Hence why vaccines are being mandated at airlines, and why people need to get vaccinated. Even with waning efficacy, vaccination is the quickest way for airlines to return to some degree of normalcy in operations and quite frankly I'm surprised it took as long as it did for many of them to go heads first into a solid mandate.

Speaking of which, I'm surprised Delta is still quiet on this. Is anyone hearing rumblings on when the announcement is going to come out? I assume it is inevitable.
 
global1
Posts: 552
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:31 pm

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:29 pm

We are still waiting.

It's not a question of ‘if’ Delta will comply, but how they go about it. The options are limited and if you are required to be fully vaccinated, a 2 dose regimen means there is a short window left. My gut tells me DL will make every effort to have vaccinations available at the workplace, perhaps secure some J&J once the 2 dose threshold closes, etc..
That said, I think they may try to offer some sort of graceful ‘out’ for those non-compliant.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5741
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Airline Employee Covid Vaccination Rates

Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:38 pm

I don’t understand how SkyWest and the other EAS carriers haven’t announced it yet. And I wonder if the majors would have the balls to require their contract carriers/contractors to get it
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Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos