qf2220 wrote:

CraigAnderson wrote:

Interesting Sydney Morning Herald article on Qantas needing to train up "at least 200 pilots to ready itself for flying" as well as bringing on more cabin crew, and the high cost of this exercise.

The writer makes an interesting point: "This raises questions about whether Qantas boss Alan Joyce was too quick on the draw when he accepted redundancies of more than 230 pilots, as COVID grounded the aviation sector globally."

Of course, as they say, hindsight is always 20/20 vision!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 58zpx.html

Nothing but a media beatup of a non-issue. They'll train the pilots. And the pilots they hire to replace the 200 redundancies will be on far cheaper contracts

My thoughts exactly. Finding 200 pilots in this market won’t be hard, and they will be paid a lot less than the 20+ year captains who took VR. Same for cabin crew.

NSW to end all quarantine for fully vaccinated travellers from 1st November. Passengers will only need to provide a PCR test, and proof of vaccination before they travel.

Unvaccinated passengers must still continue to go to Hotel Quarantine (capped at 210 per week)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-15/ ... /100541348

And like that fortress Australia is over.

log0008 wrote:

And like that fortress Australia is over.

God bless and all who sail in her!

Could we please just stick to posts related to aviation, leave the politics and the non aviation comments to the non-aviation forum

Have there been any announcements regarding schedule changes SYD-MEL with the easing (but not removal) of Victorian quarantine for Greater Sydney travellers?

RyanairGuru wrote:

qf2220 wrote:

CraigAnderson wrote:

Interesting Sydney Morning Herald article on Qantas needing to train up "at least 200 pilots to ready itself for flying" as well as bringing on more cabin crew, and the high cost of this exercise.

The writer makes an interesting point: "This raises questions about whether Qantas boss Alan Joyce was too quick on the draw when he accepted redundancies of more than 230 pilots, as COVID grounded the aviation sector globally."

Of course, as they say, hindsight is always 20/20 vision!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 58zpx.html

Nothing but a media beatup of a non-issue. They'll train the pilots. And the pilots they hire to replace the 200 redundancies will be on far cheaper contracts

My thoughts exactly. Finding 200 pilots in this market won’t be hard, and they will be paid a lot less than the 20+ year captains who took VR. Same for cabin crew.

There are a lot of ex-TT, VA and their own QF crew who were made previously made redundant would make a beeline to sign up. Also those returning crew from overseas who were laid off by their respective airlines. However they need to move fast EY, and BA just announced their mass hiring again, so did EK recently.

RyanairGuru wrote:

qf2220 wrote:

CraigAnderson wrote:

Interesting Sydney Morning Herald article on Qantas needing to train up "at least 200 pilots to ready itself for flying" as well as bringing on more cabin crew, and the high cost of this exercise.

The writer makes an interesting point: "This raises questions about whether Qantas boss Alan Joyce was too quick on the draw when he accepted redundancies of more than 230 pilots, as COVID grounded the aviation sector globally."

Of course, as they say, hindsight is always 20/20 vision!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 58zpx.html

Nothing but a media beatup of a non-issue. They'll train the pilots. And the pilots they hire to replace the 200 redundancies will be on far cheaper contracts

My thoughts exactly. Finding 200 pilots in this market won’t be hard, and they will be paid a lot less than the 20+ year captains who took VR. Same for cabin crew.

The other thing that new pilots etc will come with is higher productivity contracts, so a pilot hired now might be able to work more hours than the ones they replaced.

Kent350787 wrote:

Have there been any announcements regarding schedule changes SYD-MEL with the easing (but not removal) of Victorian quarantine for Greater Sydney travellers?

Looks like the NSW to Vic quarantine requirements are also scrapped for fully vaxxed passangers. Does that mean you could actually arrive to Vic from overseas via Sydney??? I imagine Vic government will follow the NSW suite soon regarding the international arrival procedures.

ABpositive wrote:

Kent350787 wrote:

Have there been any announcements regarding schedule changes SYD-MEL with the easing (but not removal) of Victorian quarantine for Greater Sydney travellers?

Looks like the NSW to Vic quarantine requirements are also scrapped for fully vaxxed passangers. Does that mean you could actually arrive to Vic from overseas via Sydney??? I imagine Vic government will follow the NSW suite soon regarding the international arrival procedures.

All but confirmed by the Vic health minister.

ABpositive wrote:

Kent350787 wrote:

Have there been any announcements regarding schedule changes SYD-MEL with the easing (but not removal) of Victorian quarantine for Greater Sydney travellers?

Looks like the NSW to Vic quarantine requirements are also scrapped for fully vaxxed passengers. Does that mean you could actually arrive to Vic from overseas via Sydney??? I imagine Vic government will follow the NSW suite soon regarding the international arrival procedures.

Technically yes although I guess the Victorian govt could have a question on their border pass that says have you been overseas int he last 14 days and if you say yes you will be directed to home quarantine for 7 days. In saying that I would expect Vic to fall in line with NSW - especially as Vic looks set to reach the high levels of vaccination that NSW will have allbeit a few weeks behind.

anstar wrote:

ABpositive wrote:

Kent350787 wrote:

Have there been any announcements regarding schedule changes SYD-MEL with the easing (but not removal) of Victorian quarantine for Greater Sydney travellers?

Looks like the NSW to Vic quarantine requirements are also scrapped for fully vaxxed passengers. Does that mean you could actually arrive to Vic from overseas via Sydney??? I imagine Vic government will follow the NSW suite soon regarding the international arrival procedures.

Technically yes although I guess the Victorian govt could have a question on their border pass that says have you been overseas int he last 14 days and if you say yes you will be directed to home quarantine for 7 days. In saying that I would expect Vic to fall in line with NSW - especially as Vic looks set to reach the high levels of vaccination that NSW will have allbeit a few weeks behind.

Yes, that seems likely. Given that NSW red zone travellers from Monday only need to isolate and return negative test within 72 hours of arrival in Victoria, and that Victorian daily case number are now much higher than NSW, a full reopening between the two largest states seems likely in the next month.

Not strictly aviation related, per se, but it does involve QF.

Qantas has sold land around Sydney Airport.
I didn’t realise they owned that much land around SYD. Oh well, guess it helps pay down debt.

https://www.realcommercial.com.au/news/ ... ws:spa:rca

Qantas has brought forward international flights starting to 1 November with LHR operating at 5 weekly and LAX at 4 weekly though will add more flights if demand is required

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -november/

Great news from NSW today. I'm booked to fly out November on the first flight. hahaha

I’m surprised SYD-SIN hasn’t been brought forward to November. With Singapore easing border restrictions for fully vaccinated passengers, it seems like a logical add 3x weekly alongside LHR and LAX.

Will the new 787 issues require QF 787s to be removed from service to be inspected? Hopefully wont impact the planned return to service.

The JQ aircraft are not in the age range specified to be of concern.

jrfspa320 wrote:

qf2048 wrote:

Another point to consider RE this new "Bonza" airlines is that the airports they fly to will need security screening for passengers so that will narrow down their port options along with the need for a long enough runway for 737MAX.
My local airport can accommodate a 737 but there is no screening here. FIFO charters land here, F100's,E170's etc but don't seem to need screening.

FIFO flights (closed charter) dont require screening. RPT flights do (anything bigger than a S340 anyway)

Q200/300's don't need security either. When QF downgraded PLO from Q400 services to Q300 services PLO took out their security screening equipment.

As expected, Virgin Australia (through Velocity Frequent Flyer) has terminated their partnership with Alitalia going forward.

https://experience.velocityfrequentflye ... hip-update

RyanairGuru wrote:

I’m surprised SYD-SIN hasn’t been brought forward to November. With Singapore easing border restrictions for fully vaccinated passengers, it seems like a logical add 3x weekly alongside LHR and LAX.

Singapore has not yet established a VTL (Vaccinated Travel Lane) with Australia. Hence no news regarding Aust.-SIN flights. I imagine that once a VTL is in place, QF will reinstate the SIN stopover on QF1/QF2, as the UK and Singapore have a VTL in place.

So many things going on all of a sudden. Interesting the NSW premier seemed to think he was going to be able to welcome the world though, without approval from the Federal government. One step at a time.

As for Bonza, that certainly know how to get in the news. They were speaking with so many news and tv shows this week. Great time for some publicity as people are looking for good news on the travel front.

Given that they will be trying the Allegiant type game plan, the key will be to have bases that have stronger drivers of inbound demand. Being based in OOL or MCY will certainly give them that.

As a future option, AVV having the Melbourne, Geelong and Great Ocean Road markets to tap into there are likely a few locations that may well have competition from services at Tullamarine but could work a couple of times a week if they see this as an opportunity they want to explore.

I still largely see a strong path forward for them but willing to see what they bring to the table.

Singapore Airlines to open sales on SIN-SYD allowing them to operate from 1 November without caps

https://twitter.com/jamie_freed/status/ ... 06249?s=21

IndianicWorld wrote:

So many things going on all of a sudden. Interesting the NSW premier seemed to think he was going to be able to welcome the world though, without approval from the Federal government. One step at a time.

As for Bonza, that certainly know how to get in the news. They were speaking with so many news and tv shows this week. Great time for some publicity as people are looking for good news on the travel front.

Given that they will be trying the Allegiant type game plan, the key will be to have bases that have stronger drivers of inbound demand. Being based in OOL or MCY will certainly give them that.

As a future option, AVV having the Melbourne, Geelong and Great Ocean Road markets to tap into there are likely a few locations that may well have competition from services at Tullamarine but could work a couple of times a week if they see this as an opportunity they want to explore.

I still largely see a strong path forward for them but willing to see what they bring to the table.

That should say largely struggle to see a strong path forward.

As for international flights, I see Vic following the same path as NSW once it hits 80%. I would expect that over the coming weeks the federal government may have also confirmed next steps to facilitate tourists and students returning. Opening up of the 2 most populous states will be a big step forward.

Fuling wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

I’m surprised SYD-SIN hasn’t been brought forward to November. With Singapore easing border restrictions for fully vaccinated passengers, it seems like a logical add 3x weekly alongside LHR and LAX.

Singapore has not yet established a VTL (Vaccinated Travel Lane) with Australia. Hence no news regarding Aust.-SIN flights. I imagine that once a VTL is in place, QF will reinstate the SIN stopover on QF1/QF2, as the UK and Singapore have a VTL in place.

QF has said SYD-DRW-LHR will remain in place until at least April 2022, alongside MEL-DRW-LHR, until PER reopens. Which I find strange because sure, while SIN isn't open for transit to Aussies then DRW is the go, but once SIN is open, surely DRW can be dropped from QF1/2? Maybe DRW and the NT government told QF that it would only do the QF9 via DRW if it could also have QF1 via DRW, as that basically doubles the revenue DRW and later the NT can make from tourism?

Haven't heard a peep out of Rex lately, regional NSW lockdown must still be hurting them along with SYD-MEL and OOL being neutered. Gotta wonder if the next big news from Rex will be either its collapse or a shutdown of the B737 operation with John Sharp blaming Covid, politicians, Alan Joyce and everybody but himself and his own board.

Looking to book a trip to US in Jan 22 but unsurprisingly premium cabin prices are very high.

Wonder whether the price would drop after US carriers putting in more seats in the system.

a19901213 wrote:

Looking to book a trip to US in Jan 22 but unsurprisingly premium cabin prices are very high.

Wonder whether the price would drop after US carriers putting in more seats in the system.

Flights in general are priced high. Dublin to Sydney over Christmas is €2,015 return (AU$3,150) in economy class! I have a booking in business class for later in 2022 which is only $1,500 more. That's crazy money for economy, but I'd say they'll sell the seats at that price with no hassles at all.

ClassicLover wrote:

a19901213 wrote:

Looking to book a trip to US in Jan 22 but unsurprisingly premium cabin prices are very high.

Wonder whether the price would drop after US carriers putting in more seats in the system.

Flights in general are priced high. Dublin to Sydney over Christmas is €2,015 return (AU$3,150) in economy class! I have a booking in business class for later in 2022 which is only $1,500 more. That's crazy money for economy, but I'd say they'll sell the seats at that price with no hassles at all.

They will remain high for some time, but until tourists and students are allowed they will be ridiculous. They know that for a while most of those traveling will be doing to visit family etc and people will pay pretty much anything.

FL420FT wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Qantas to add DRW-TSV from 31 Jan 22 and DRW-CNS from 29 Mar 22, both services are 3 weekly E90’s

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ueensland/

Interesting - theyll be competing with Airnorth on TSV which would already be a codeshare?

JQ already fly CNS-DRW direct with A320s and Airnorth fly via Gove.....seems alot of capacity....

I'm guessing they are aiming for the connection traffic, As being (technically) QF flghts, they will be able to offer through baggage checks and boarding passes all the way through to the UK and beyond.

The 3 PAX a day traveling from TSV-LHR will be delighted! Jokes aside LHR is a big destination and a big hub but not a great hub for Australians because if you are going somewhere other than LHR you have probably flown well past it and will have to back track to get there. And DRW has virtually no other Intl Destinations to connect to.

If QF added a well timed connection to SIN so the new CNS & DRW flights could connect there, along with flights from ADL, ASP and other Southern Ports, then that could work. The NT Government should consider funding a QF SIN flight, it could be a game changer in making DRW a Hub. I believe they did underwrite the MH flight to KUL but there was no Australian network feed to keep it viable.

ClassicLover wrote:

a19901213 wrote:

Looking to book a trip to US in Jan 22 but unsurprisingly premium cabin prices are very high.

Wonder whether the price would drop after US carriers putting in more seats in the system.

Flights in general are priced high. Dublin to Sydney over Christmas is €2,015 return (AU$3,150) in economy class! I have a booking in business class for later in 2022 which is only $1,500 more. That's crazy money for economy, but I'd say they'll sell the seats at that price with no hassles at all.

I'm looking at December getaways from Brisbane. Brisbane to LAX is around $1200 (fairly standard for pre pandemic). SIN is also about $1200 - quite pricy for Singapore.
Port Moresby is shockingly close to $4k (and I think exceeding it on some dates). I'm not familiar with every countries' covid restrictions but that is absolutely insane. On some dates I saw Business Class for $1000 cheaper.

Also, I can't find any flights from DIL to DRW. I can find flights TO Timor but not the return.

The whole situation is going to need to wait for certainty I think. Australia has too much of a reputation as being changeable so carriers serving it are taking a risk and charging a premium for it. And people here are desperate enough to pay it. Hopefully as more airlines re-commence service with reliable schedules, and government policy is stable, and demand is proven things will start to return to normal.

At this point it looks like I'm going to Fiji.

Flights between Melbourne/Sydney and Christchurch/Queenstown to resume from Tuesday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-17/ ... /100545626

atal17 wrote:

Flights between Melbourne/Sydney and Christchurch/Queenstown to resume from Tuesday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-17/ ... /100545626

FWIW, the ABC report only talks about people coming in from the South Island, not Australians flying to the South Island.

Travellers from the South Island of New Zealand will be able to arrive in Australia without spending two weeks in quarantine from Wednesday.
Australian Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said New South Wales and Victoria had both agreed to accept arrivals from the southern part of the country.

With regard to reports of high prices for Qantas flights, this in today's SMH:

‘We just want our aircraft back in the air’: Alan Joyce on why prices won’t be sky-high when travel returns

Our priority, at least in the next year or so, will be getting aircraft back in the air, so we don’t need to make the returns we were making pre COVID. We have 10,000 people stood down. We were losing billions by sitting on the ground. So that means we’re going to be incentivising people to fly again. The one thing that could have a short-term impact on higher airfares is when governments open our borders late and we’re scrambling for capacity. But medium and long term, we just want our aircraft back in the air and to be cashflow positive. Before the second lockdown we had Jetstar selling $19 airfares to get people travelling again, and we’ll be doing similar things.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-just ... 5905t.html

I've been looking at QF flights to Asia, well to the parts likely to be open to Australia soon, and they're pretty much what I could call 'peak economy' fares. Maybe I've become so used to seeing very low economy fares that that's become my 'benchmark', the current fares just don't have the benefit of the discounting you see in a full and competitive market.

Demand ex Australia will outstrip supply for a long time. IMHO Qantas will (and should) milk it for every dollar they can. You’re not going to see “cheap” fares for a long time.

redroo wrote:

Demand ex Australia will outstrip supply for a long time. IMHO Qantas will (and should) milk it for every dollar they can. You’re not going to see “cheap” fares for a long time.

If there's a queue out the front door of your pub, then there's no need to offer happy hour deals

myki wrote:

redroo wrote:

Demand ex Australia will outstrip supply for a long time. IMHO Qantas will (and should) milk it for every dollar they can. You’re not going to see “cheap” fares for a long time.

If there's a queue out the front door of your pub, then there's no need to offer happy hour deals

Love it

United LAX-SYD will see 77W instead of 787-9 between 16 Dec 21 and 3 Jan 22

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 86433?s=21

redroo wrote:

Demand ex Australia will outstrip supply for a long time. IMHO Qantas will (and should) milk it for every dollar they can. You’re not going to see “cheap” fares for a long time.

I am still not sure about this, keen to understand why others think it is sustainable for an extended period?

I absolutely see a peak occurring next few months but I see demand tapering off really quickly till their is more certainty, business travel starts returning, marketing departments across the industry catch up tp stimulate demand and travel insurance is clear - aka what happened with the NZ travel bubble when it opened - very busy first few weeks then it tapered really quickly and airlines started adjusting their schedules to reduce frequency fast (before the bubble ultimately then burst again).

redroo wrote:

Demand ex Australia will outstrip supply for a long time. IMHO Qantas will (and should) milk it for every dollar they can. You’re not going to see “cheap” fares for a long time.

Nature abhors a vacuum. Anyone who thinks QF can charge whatever it likes without any competition is kidding themselves. The market will find its equilibrium quite quickly. Other airlines will re-enter the market.

Already, SQ has started selling every seat on the 17 services a week it operates into SYD. Previously, it was selling about 25 seats per flight on only 10 services. UA is increasing its capacity by upgrading to 77W and will be selling every seat. The ME3 have operated to AU throughout the pandemic. They will be keen to start selling as many seats as they can as soon as they are able.

Velocity7 wrote:

redroo wrote:

Demand ex Australia will outstrip supply for a long time. IMHO Qantas will (and should) milk it for every dollar they can. You’re not going to see “cheap” fares for a long time.

I am still not sure about this, keen to understand why others think it is sustainable for an extended period?

I absolutely see a peak occurring next few months but I see demand tapering off really quickly till their is more certainty, business travel starts returning, marketing departments across the industry catch up tp stimulate demand and travel insurance is clear - aka what happened with the NZ travel bubble when it opened - very busy first few weeks then it tapered really quickly and airlines started adjusting their schedules to reduce frequency fast (before the bubble ultimately then burst again).

Agreed. Especially with the quarantine free travel restricted to citizens and PR in the first instance, I see a hump before incremental growth in the living with Covid world. With AA hving exited the transpac market at this stage, the UA upguage seems a logical temporary move. Unfortunately for QA 789 is it for the time being in that market. If it is more than a bubble, the US airlines are probabbly more able to up capacity quickly.

Seems to me that the predictions about the recovery in international travel are mostly being made by airlines who are self-interested - and lots of A-net posters are buying into the spiel. Sure, there may be a bubble of pent-up demand, but there are a number of factors which I believe will act as a handbrake on demand, including

* exclusion of the non-vaxxed from many airlines;
* public scepticism that many countries and potential destinations are really on top of the virus
* even if business travel does recover to some extent, the use of zoom and the like must inevitably cut demand to some extent
* public awareness that the vaccine does not necessarily prevent infections from occurring
* reluctance to take children into some countries, given they cannot be vaccinated (yet, at least)
* we're only just seeing the first hints of (climate) flight shaming - this will become more and more a focus as the stark realities of climate change become more widely accepted.

Even if each of these factors accounts for only a few percent of potential travellers, in combination they will, I believe, be very significant.

It's no accident that many long-haul airlines are preparing to operate in future with fewer aircraft. Sadly for aviation, but not for the environment or public health, smaller may well be more beautiful.

I'd add a few more points
- risk of future border closures with say a more virulent varient where the current vaccine is less effective
- cross-acceptance of vaccination certificates (most of Europe requires a QRcode that can be checked - the current Aus certificate doesn't have this). Ed- Per below Australia is adding a QRcode but acceptance may still be an issue
- cost and need for PCR tests in and out of many countries (and different countries have different policies on timeframes). Private tests run $100-200 per person based on what I've seen
- ability to get travel insurance to cover you if you catch Covid
- risk of getting stuck. Some people reportedly continue to test positive for 4+ weeks after contracting the virus

Now much like hiring a scooter in SEAsia, many will probably ignore the above risks.

moa999 wrote:

I'd add a few more points
- cross-acceptance of vaccination certificates (most of Europe requires a QRcode that can be checked - the current Aus certificate doesn't have this)

Recognising the reasons above are valid, this one can be taken off the list

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-17/ ... /100546130

Velocity7 wrote:

I absolutely see a peak occurring next few months but I see demand tapering off really quickly till their is more certainty, business travel starts returning, marketing departments across the industry catch up tp stimulate demand and travel insurance is clear - aka what happened with the NZ travel bubble when it opened - very busy first few weeks then it tapered really quickly and airlines started adjusting their schedules to reduce frequency fast (before the bubble ultimately then burst again).

Yes, and this is the exact same example I use. When the AU-NZ bubble opened flights on the first days were full, as everybody was trying to reconnect with family overseas, so travel was very much in 'VFR' mode, but I think by the time the second week arrived Qantas was back to two flights a day instead of three and loads were very low. Business travel didn't come back at all except for people who really needed to be there in person, as there are some jobs you can't do over Zoom.

This will be the same, a big surge of Aussies headed overseas to reconnect with family, and Aussies who've been stuck overseas finally coming back home. It's very well timed for Christmas too, as this is a peak leisure travel season. But when January comes and school holidays end there's usually a 'back to business' mode where business travel picks up, and I really don't think that will be the case in February 2022. So I think we'll see this peak across Nov-Dec-Jan and then a big drop off for Feb, hopefully that means airlines will put on sales and promotions to get bums back onto those seats.

Velocity7 wrote:

redroo wrote:

Demand ex Australia will outstrip supply for a long time. IMHO Qantas will (and should) milk it for every dollar they can. You’re not going to see “cheap” fares for a long time.

I am still not sure about this, keen to understand why others think it is sustainable for an extended period?

I absolutely see a peak occurring next few months but I see demand tapering off really quickly till their is more certainty, business travel starts returning, marketing departments across the industry catch up tp stimulate demand and travel insurance is clear - aka what happened with the NZ travel bubble when it opened - very busy first few weeks then it tapered really quickly and airlines started adjusting their schedules to reduce frequency fast (before the bubble ultimately then burst again).

I’m inclined to agree. November until the end of January will be very busy with VFR travelling immediately on opening up and/or over Christmas, plus school holiday traffic to Fiji etc, but after that initial rush of people travelling to see friends and family they haven’t seen for two years I think February until June will be slow. I don’t expect a broader increase in demand until the June/July school holidays and through the second half of 2022.

CraigAnderson wrote:

Velocity7 wrote:

I absolutely see a peak occurring next few months but I see demand tapering off really quickly till their is more certainty, business travel starts returning, marketing departments across the industry catch up tp stimulate demand and travel insurance is clear - aka what happened with the NZ travel bubble when it opened - very busy first few weeks then it tapered really quickly and airlines started adjusting their schedules to reduce frequency fast (before the bubble ultimately then burst again).

Yes, and this is the exact same example I use. When the AU-NZ bubble opened flights on the first days were full, as everybody was trying to reconnect with family overseas, so travel was very much in 'VFR' mode, but I think by the time the second week arrived Qantas was back to two flights a day instead of three and loads were very low. Business travel didn't come back at all except for people who really needed to be there in person, as there are some jobs you can't do over Zoom.

This will be the same, a big surge of Aussies headed overseas to reconnect with family, and Aussies who've been stuck overseas finally coming back home. It's very well timed for Christmas too, as this is a peak leisure travel season. But when January comes and school holidays end there's usually a 'back to business' mode where business travel picks up, and I really don't think that will be the case in February 2022. So I think we'll see this peak across Nov-Dec-Jan and then a big drop off for Feb, hopefully that means airlines will put on sales and promotions to get bums back onto those seats.

I think the order of demand will be
visiting / returning family / friends
international students returning
business travel

leisure will kind of span across all of these

qf789 wrote:

United LAX-SYD will see 77W instead of 787-9 between 16 Dec 21 and 3 Jan 22

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 86433?s=21

United also upgrading SFO-SYD to 77W on same dates

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 92643?s=21

Following the announcement by NSW on Friday, the PM did clarify this by saying it was currently restricted to Australian citizens, permanent residents and families. This makes sense given the political imperative to allow those currently stuck overseas to return first. If 40,000 is the real figure, you'd hope this could be cleared within a month though there is the obvious issue of what people ultimately headed to states other than NSW, ACT or Victoria do when they arrive in Sydney.

Assuming this backlog is cleared, it is likely that the allowable entries will broaden from early December into NSW at least to include students, skilled workers, visitors etc. The Victorian premier has said that it too was moving away from Hotel Quarantine but seemed to suggest that they were leaning towards a home quarantine arrangement for "less than 14 days" but it wasn't very clear what that meant particularly as it will be pretty free to cross the Vic/NSW border from Wednesday so, in theory, if you arrive into SYD and then travel to MEL, you are subject to the "test and release"regime whereas, if you arrive into MEL, you have to do home quarantine for something less than 14 days. This doesn't make sense.

With the lack of clarity for the next few weeks, I'd expect most airlines to concentrate their announcements and recommencements on SYD.

tullamarine wrote:

Following the announcement by NSW on Friday, the PM did clarify this by saying it was currently restricted to Australian citizens, permanent residents and families. This makes sense given the political imperative to allow those currently stuck overseas to return first. If 40,000 is the real figure, you'd hope this could be cleared within a month though there is the obvious issue of what people ultimately headed to states other than NSW, ACT or Victoria do when they arrive in Sydney.

Assuming this backlog is cleared, it is likely that the allowable entries will broaden from early December into NSW at least to include students, skilled workers, visitors etc. The Victorian premier has said that it too was moving away from Hotel Quarantine but seemed to suggest that they were leaning towards a home quarantine arrangement for "less than 14 days" but it wasn't very clear what that meant particularly as it will be pretty free to cross the Vic/NSW border from Wednesday so, in theory, if you arrive into SYD and then travel to MEL, you are subject to the "test and release"regime whereas, if you arrive into MEL, you have to do home quarantine for something less than 14 days. This doesn't make sense.

With the lack of clarity for the next few weeks, I'd expect most airlines to concentrate their announcements and recommencements on SYD.

There are 40,000 registered with DFAT wishing to return to Australia. However, DFAT only ask those Australians abroad to register if they are actively trying to return (essentially, a waiting list for the urgent). There are still hundreds of thousands Australians living safely abroad that have not had the chance to return to Australia and see family/friends since the pandemic started - but due to business and family commitments, they have not had a need to register with DFAT. This will keep demand kicking along for a while, especially with Christmas on the horizon. Also goes to Australian's with family abroad wishing to visit them. I see demand exceeding supply for a while, even wihout tourist visas being reactivated etc.

REX will resume 737 services on MEL-SYD along with CBR will resume on 15 November with other 737 services resuming once respective states meet 80% vaccination target

https://australianaviation.com.au/2021/ ... -november/