Australian aviation thread - October 2021

qf2220 · Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:02 pm

Fantastic flight. Nearly wish i need to have been repatriated from BsAs to be on it...

Does anyone know what the deepest it got in latitude terms was? It would have definitely been below 60 i would suspect?

Gemuser · Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:37 am

qf2220 wrote:
Fantastic flight. Nearly wish i need to have been repatriated from BsAs to be on it...

Does anyone know what the deepest it got in latitude terms was? It would have definitely been below 60 i would suspect?

From provisional flight in reply No39: 74.55 South, so a CAO concession would be required, assuming provisional plan was followed, it barely touch Antarctica, so CASA most probably agreeable.

Gemuser

qf789 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:46 am

Qantas is saying that Project Sunrise could begin flights in 2024/25 with an order placed early next year however a decision will be made once the narrowbody order is sorted out

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... n-new-york

dredgy · Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:15 am

Is Qatar in negotiations with anyone about expanding frequencies?
I need to work in Baghdad next year and the most convenient flights from Brisbane are with Qatar. Are they expecting to retain their Brisbane service?

qf2220 · Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:29 pm

Another visual of QF14 EZE-DRW from flightradar24

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/statu ... 83458?s=20

tristans · Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:41 pm

A couple of deliveries (or redelivery in one case) for VA into BNE today.
N343CG (VH-VUJ) due at 1250L from MAJ as OMD506
9V-MGF (ex- Silk Air) reported to be into BNE as well at 1900L from SIN

kriskim · Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:16 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas is saying that Project Sunrise could begin flights in 2024/25 with an order placed early next year however a decision will be made once the narrowbody order is sorted out

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... n-new-york

Sounds like another bargaining chip for Airbus to reduce its price for the A320/A220 tender.

Pcoder · Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:52 am

kriskim wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas is saying that Project Sunrise could begin flights in 2024/25 with an order placed early next year however a decision will be made once the narrowbody order is sorted out

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... n-new-york

Sounds like another bargaining chip for Airbus to reduce its price for the A320/A220 tender.

Kind of feel this is more related to not running international properly for a year and a half and whether more issues could still come up. They probably don't want to rush into something so soon after the massive pandemic issues.

I still feel we'll see an increase of A321N/737-10s and A220/E2s type aircraft into the fleet rather than one large order for A320N/737-8s.

DLNZ · Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:21 am

Good to see VA heading back to CFS, with double daily SYD & daily MEL from 11 & 18 November respectively.

https://newsroom.virginaustralia.com/re ... s-fares-45

tullamarine · Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:49 am

DLNZ wrote:
Good to see VA heading back to CFS, with double daily SYD & daily MEL from 11 & 18 November respectively.

https://newsroom.virginaustralia.com/re ... s-fares-45

WIth Qld seemingly likely to keep its borders closed right up until Christmas at least, I suspect we will see VA and JQ offering lots of flights from MEL and SYD to places such as BNK, CFS and PQQ as Victoria and NSW start to reopen.

redroo · Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:44 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas is saying that Project Sunrise could begin flights in 2024/25 with an order placed early next year however a decision will be made once the narrowbody order is sorted out

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... n-new-york

As much as they want to do it, I don’t think the balance sheet can handle a 737 replacement order and an A350 order right now.

Gangurru · Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:49 am

Qantas, NT Government and Darwin Airport have reached an agreement to facilitate international flights.

All Kangaroo Route flights, both Sydney and Melbourne, will temporarily fly through the NT.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ia-darwin/

This is the first tangible sign borders are reopening. Woohoo!

sierrakilo44 · Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:04 pm

redroo wrote:
As much as they want to do it, I don’t think the balance sheet can handle a 737 replacement order and an A350 order right now.

10 A350s for the price of 30 737 MAXs

qf2048 · Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:43 pm

DLNZ wrote:
Good to see VA heading back to CFS, with double daily SYD & daily MEL from 11 & 18 November respectively.

https://newsroom.virginaustralia.com/re ... s-fares-45

Interesting! Do we think ZL will remain on CFS? VA were only one per day when they left SYD-CFS. Tiger was flying MEL-CFS-SYD-CFS-MEL, maybe 4-5 times per week? before they were wound up.

EK413 · Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:18 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
redroo wrote:
As much as they want to do it, I don’t think the balance sheet can handle a 737 replacement order and an A350 order right now.

10 A350s for the price of 30 737 MAXs

We all know the A350 order is in the bag & certain Airbus will throw in heavily discounted A220’s & A320/1’s along with it. It’s safe to say QF are no longer a loyal Boeing customer.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

CraigAnderson · Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:21 am

redroo wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas is saying that Project Sunrise could begin flights in 2024/25 with an order placed early next year however a decision will be made once the narrowbody order is sorted out

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... n-new-york

As much as they want to do it, I don’t think the balance sheet can handle a 737 replacement order and an A350 order right now.

Bear in mind that the 737 replacement order will according to Qantas involve a staged spend-and-delivery program spread over a decade, so this won't be one massive hit to the balance sheet, and I'd expect the Sunrise flights will very quickly be profitable thanks to passengers who'll want to skip the stopover.

qf789 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:33 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
redroo wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas is saying that Project Sunrise could begin flights in 2024/25 with an order placed early next year however a decision will be made once the narrowbody order is sorted out

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... n-new-york

As much as they want to do it, I don’t think the balance sheet can handle a 737 replacement order and an A350 order right now.

Bear in mind that the 737 replacement order will according to Qantas involve a staged spend-and-delivery program spread over a decade, so this won't be one massive hit to the balance sheet, and I'd expect the Sunrise flights will very quickly be profitable thanks to passengers who'll want to skip the stopover.

redroo does make a good point, on top of the narrowbody order and Sunrise jets QF will also need to look at A330 replacements, while some of those may go in favour of a smaller A321XLR the rest will need to be replaced with another widebody

On top of that who knows how long the A380’s will fly for, if for some reason they become uneconomical they will need to be replaced as well, additional A350’s would need to be ordered to replace them

As for the 787-9 fleet it’s also possible they don’t have enough of those moving forward either

Fuling · Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:07 am

qf789 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
redroo wrote:

As much as they want to do it, I don’t think the balance sheet can handle a 737 replacement order and an A350 order right now.

Bear in mind that the 737 replacement order will according to Qantas involve a staged spend-and-delivery program spread over a decade, so this won't be one massive hit to the balance sheet, and I'd expect the Sunrise flights will very quickly be profitable thanks to passengers who'll want to skip the stopover.

redroo does make a good point, on top of the narrowbody order and Sunrise jets QF will also need to look at A330 replacements, while some of those may go in favour of a smaller A321XLR the rest will need to be replaced with another widebody

On top of that who knows how long the A380’s will fly for, if for some reason they become uneconomical they will need to be replaced as well, additional A350’s would need to be ordered to replace them

As for the 787-9 fleet it’s also possible they don’t have enough of those moving forward either

A330-900neo would be good for that. Plus, the standard version has enough range for BNE-LAX/SFO.

atal17 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:14 am

Fiji Airways intends to return to Australia from December 1st, subject to border restrictions.

2x daily Sydney-Nadi and 1x daily Melbourne/Brisbane-Nadi each

https://www.fijiairways.com/en-au/media ... t-december

ZK-NBT · Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:10 am

qf789 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
redroo wrote:

As much as they want to do it, I don’t think the balance sheet can handle a 737 replacement order and an A350 order right now.

Bear in mind that the 737 replacement order will according to Qantas involve a staged spend-and-delivery program spread over a decade, so this won't be one massive hit to the balance sheet, and I'd expect the Sunrise flights will very quickly be profitable thanks to passengers who'll want to skip the stopover.

redroo does make a good point, on top of the narrowbody order and Sunrise jets QF will also need to look at A330 replacements, while some of those may go in favour of a smaller A321XLR the rest will need to be replaced with another widebody

On top of that who knows how long the A380’s will fly for, if for some reason they become uneconomical they will need to be replaced as well, additional A350’s would need to be ordered to replace them

As for the 787-9 fleet it’s also possible they don’t have enough of those moving forward either

I would take it that the A350s will replace A330s on a per frame basis with the fleet shuffled around, I am guessing the first A350s will be used for SYD-LHR as an additional service but could allow for the oldest A332s to start being retired, in the lower end there will be A321s or Maxes being delivered in reasonable numbers to replace the oldest 738s with additional frames to replace the higher capacity A332s.

Then there is the case for additional 787s, 781s could replace the A333 into Asia although QF have talked about aircraft with greater flexibility so maybe more 789s which can also do US flying.

Fuling wrote:
qf789 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:

Bear in mind that the 737 replacement order will according to Qantas involve a staged spend-and-delivery program spread over a decade, so this won't be one massive hit to the balance sheet, and I'd expect the Sunrise flights will very quickly be profitable thanks to passengers who'll want to skip the stopover.

redroo does make a good point, on top of the narrowbody order and Sunrise jets QF will also need to look at A330 replacements, while some of those may go in favour of a smaller A321XLR the rest will need to be replaced with another widebody

On top of that who knows how long the A380’s will fly for, if for some reason they become uneconomical they will need to be replaced as well, additional A350’s would need to be ordered to replace them

As for the 787-9 fleet it’s also possible they don’t have enough of those moving forward either

A330-900neo would be good for that. Plus, the standard version has enough range for BNE-LAX/SFO.

I’ve got to be honest and say I would be very surprised at an A330NEO order, the A330s and A380s will be around for a decade or so, once they go you would see a wide body fleet of A350s and 787s weather they see a need for A359s or 781s in the mix remains to be seen. Some 787s could be 2 class by then and could cover domestic where required as well. I would see it playing out something like that myself.

a320fan · Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:10 am

The tricky area for QF is the A332 segment. There’s nothing really on the market in this area beyond the 788, which I don’t see QF ordering. Larger narrow bodies are definitely needed domestically to cover any wind down in the 330s, and for Asian routes perhaps we will see some denser 789s, complimented by denser non sunrise 351s for larger volume destinations such as LAX, HND, SIN, HKG, (post A380)

freshwater · Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:53 am

Could we see the long rumoured transfer of JQ 788s play this role on North Asian routes outside the range of A321XLR?

a320fan wrote:
The tricky area for QF is the A332 segment. There’s nothing really on the market in this area beyond the 788, which I don’t see QF ordering. Larger narrow bodies are definitely needed domestically to cover any wind down in the 330s, and for Asian routes perhaps we will see some denser 789s, complimented by denser non sunrise 351s for larger volume destinations such as LAX, HND, SIN, HKG, (post A380)

ZK-NBT · Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:55 am

a320fan wrote:
The tricky area for QF is the A332 segment. There’s nothing really on the market in this area beyond the 788, which I don’t see QF ordering. Larger narrow bodies are definitely needed domestically to cover any wind down in the 330s, and for Asian routes perhaps we will see some denser 789s, complimented by denser non sunrise 351s for larger volume destinations such as LAX, HND, SIN, HKG, (post A380)

JQ have 788 a which were initially going to move back to mainline and JQ were going to get 789s, that was the first plan way back when. Not sure if JQ will need all of its 788s or not when it gets A321LRs, however with QF using A332s BNE-LAX/SFO I would have thought reconfigured 788s from JQ would have been a good fit there, unless the JQ 788s stay more or less as is and move to QF domestic atleast some of them.

I am suggesting some 2 class 789s that replace some of the denser A330 flying to Asia which could also be used domestically. They might have 280-300 seats.

QF have said they want the A351 to do SYD-LHR oneday and SYD-HKG the next, not to say there wouldn’t eventually be a second configuration however. I wonder if that is where some 781s could be good into Asia places like SIN/HKG/HND where a W cabin could be needed but without F that the A351 has for LHR/LAX etc.

moa999 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:33 am

On the 332s I think QF has 4 older ones
EBA-EBD are 2003 era.

Then the 333s from 2003-2005

And then the balance of the 332s from 2007-13.

So you are dealing with a mix of ages.

AirbusA322 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:56 am

A330neo for domestic?

Alan has said before that 787 is not economical for Domestic East coast.

qf789 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:29 pm

AirbusA322 wrote:
A330neo for domestic?

Alan has said before that 787 is not economical for Domestic East coast.

He also said the A330 economics do not work on domestic either

https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... stic-fleet

qf789 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:36 pm

Qantas doing a few crew training 787 flights on Monday the 11th doing SYD-SYD

https://twitter.com/keg767/status/14471 ... 31782?s=21

qf789 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:41 pm

Qantas charter flights to ISB later this month will see A332 operate instead of 787-9

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 10880?s=21

qf789 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:46 pm

Air Canada has moved schedule forward by a day starting on 14 Dec 21, YVR departure, will operate 3 weekly to SYD increasing to 4 weekly from 4 Jan 22, 77L operating

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 27689?s=21

Hawaiian plans to restart SYD and BNE from 15 Dec 21 at the earliest, both 3 weekly

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 56166?s=21

EK413 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:07 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qantas doing a few crew training 787 flights on Monday the 11th doing SYD-SYD

https://twitter.com/keg767/status/14471 ... 31782?s=21

There are 2 x B787’s operating simultaneously the 12th & 13th kicking off 7am

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ClassicLover · Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:48 pm

qf789 wrote:
AirbusA322 wrote:
A330neo for domestic?

Alan has said before that 787 is not economical for Domestic East coast.

He also said the A330 economics do not work on domestic either

Of course not, and that is due to the configuration of the aircraft.

Same airframe with no lie-flat business class seats, no premium economy and no heavy IFE system installed would probably be quite economical on the routes.

Everyone seems to always point to the aircraft type, but the way the airline configures said type makes a huge difference to the economics.

moa999 · Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:18 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Of course not, and that is due to the configuration of the aircraft.
.

Ah.
Let's go back that 2x3x2 business class 332 configuration that was so loved by passengers.

Without Virgin competing with lie flats, I agree a simple 2x2x2 business would be more efficient on the Perth routes..

And then ideally you'd have some 321XLRs with a lie flat business arriving late evening, which could provide fully flat for the red eye services.

aschachter · Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:28 pm

Interesting view that the Qantas International Flying Schedule has more flights than aircraft to operate them.

https://www.australianfrequentflyer.com ... te_11oct21

RyanairGuru · Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:16 am

ClassicLover wrote:
qf789 wrote:
AirbusA322 wrote:
A330neo for domestic?

Alan has said before that 787 is not economical for Domestic East coast.

He also said the A330 economics do not work on domestic either

Of course not, and that is due to the configuration of the aircraft.

Same airframe with no lie-flat business class seats, no premium economy and no heavy IFE system installed would probably be quite economical on the routes.

Everyone seems to always point to the aircraft type, but the way the airline configures said type makes a huge difference to the economics.

Not really, Qantas said years and years ago that the A330 wasn’t as efficient as the 767 on SYD-MEL/BNE turns. That was long before the current lie flat configuration.

tullamarine · Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:43 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
qf789 wrote:

He also said the A330 economics do not work on domestic either

Of course not, and that is due to the configuration of the aircraft.

Same airframe with no lie-flat business class seats, no premium economy and no heavy IFE system installed would probably be quite economical on the routes.

Everyone seems to always point to the aircraft type, but the way the airline configures said type makes a huge difference to the economics.

Not really, Qantas said years and years ago that the A330 wasn’t as efficient as the 767 on SYD-MEL/BNE turns. That was long before the current lie flat configuration.

QF has admitted that the A330 turnaround was longer than the 767 which makes sense given the A330 is bigger and a twin aisle with only 7 abreast should be efficient from a boarding/disembarking point of view. A 9 abreast 787 would probably be even worse.

Having said that, QF has never really tried to optimise its A330 turnarounds often only using a single airbridge even when twin airbridges are available and never using rear stairs for boarding the last Y section even though they often use rear stairs on its 737s.

RyanairGuru · Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:05 am

tullamarine wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:

Of course not, and that is due to the configuration of the aircraft.

Same airframe with no lie-flat business class seats, no premium economy and no heavy IFE system installed would probably be quite economical on the routes.

Everyone seems to always point to the aircraft type, but the way the airline configures said type makes a huge difference to the economics.

Not really, Qantas said years and years ago that the A330 wasn’t as efficient as the 767 on SYD-MEL/BNE turns. That was long before the current lie flat configuration.

QF has admitted that the A330 turnaround was longer than the 767 which makes sense given the A330 is bigger and a twin aisle with only 7 abreast should be efficient from a boarding/disembarking point of view. A 9 abreast 787 would probably be even worse.

Having said that, QF has never really tried to optimise its A330 turnarounds often only using a single airbridge even when twin airbridges are available and never using rear stairs for boarding the last Y section even though they often use rear stairs on its 737s.

It is also quite a bit heavier than the 767, which counts against it on short flights. The other advantage the 767 had is that it could fit into most of their domestic gates, whereas the A330 is a lot less flexible. For example, doesn’t T3 at SYD only have two A330 capable gates? Obviously that would also apply to the 787 as well.

ASOSpotter · Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:40 am

Having done turnarounds on the QANTAS domestic fleet, the A330s followed by the 717s where the worst. A330s constantly needing GPU start and then going full tech. Switching to another airframe and then trying the A330 again later only to have a similar or different issue. The RAAF is looking at the A330s for further fleet enhancement so I see them going sooner rather then later. The talk is up to three or four moving to the Air Force.
I find it very interesting that so many people discount Boeing for the MAX and next to no talk about the Alliance factor. With the Airline already owning a stake and wanting to further increase its share in the airline, E190s and even E2s have to be added into the future planning. Both make great products and in Embraer's world they are increasing the support offering within the area, with further support for both Cobham and Alliance.

tullamarine · Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:28 am

ASOSpotter wrote:
I find it very interesting that so many people discount Boeing for the MAX and next to no talk about the Alliance factor. With the Airline already owning a stake and wanting to further increase its share in the airline, E190s and even E2s have to be added into the future planning. Both make great products and in Embraer's world they are increasing the support offering within the area, with further support for both Cobham and Alliance.

At this stage, the Alliance equity investment is stranded. QF appear unlikely to gain competition approval to increase its ownership in Alliance due to concerns about the resulting dominance it would give QF in both regional and FIFO markets. At some point, QF will decide if it is happy to hold its investment even though it is unlikely to be allowed any board representation or whether to sell out which wouldn't be all bad since the share price has doubled since QF purchased its shares.

I don't think anyone is discounting the MAX particularly if Boeing do amazing pricing. The attractions of the A32X are probably twofold. One is a point of difference between QF and VA if that is worth anything which it may not be given most people don't know and don't care what type they are flying on. The other is it looks likely that the A321XLR will definitely have a place in the international fleet so there is a potential saving in having all mainline narrowbodies of one type though realistically the 738 will still hang around for a decade at least.

ASOSpotter · Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:40 am

tullamarine wrote:
ASOSpotter wrote:
I find it very interesting that so many people discount Boeing for the MAX and next to no talk about the Alliance factor. With the Airline already owning a stake and wanting to further increase its share in the airline, E190s and even E2s have to be added into the future planning. Both make great products and in Embraer's world they are increasing the support offering within the area, with further support for both Cobham and Alliance.

At this stage, the Alliance equity investment is stranded. QF appear unlikely to gain competition approval to increase its ownership in Alliance due to concerns about the resulting dominance it would give QF in both regional and FIFO markets. At some point, QF will decide if it is happy to hold its investment even though it is unlikely to be allowed any board representation or whether to sell out which wouldn't be all bad since the share price has doubled since QF purchased its shares.

I don't think anyone is discounting the MAX particularly if Boeing do amazing pricing. The attractions of the A32X are probably twofold. One is a point of difference between QF and VA if that is worth anything which it may not be given most people don't know and don't care what type they are flying on. The other is it looks likely that the A321XLR will definitely have a place in the international fleet so there is a potential saving in having all mainline narrowbodies of one type though realistically the 738 will still hang around for a decade at least.

If you read this and the thread on the topic elsewhere, you'd swear it was a bunch of people who a) have never worked on an aircraft and b)hope that Boeing goes broke. Its a joke.

qf789 · Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:20 pm

Virgin has brought forward the start date of flights to Fiji by a week, now due to commence on 16 Dec 21

SYD-NAN will see up to 2 daily from 16 Dec 21
MEL-NAN up to a daily service 17 Dec 21
BNE-NAN up to 3 weekly flights from 18 Dec 21

https://newsroom.virginaustralia.com/re ... t-schedule

qf789 · Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:43 pm

Qatar Airways is currently seeking additional frequencies to their bilateral to operate daily services to BNE year round. They also want to drop the CBR tag on the second SYD flight as well

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ha-flights

CraigAnderson · Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:51 pm

Just noticed this new airline website, saw it mentioned on a frequent flyer website: Bonza Airlines? Another would-be LCC?

https://flybonza.com/

kriskim · Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:24 pm

CraigAnderson wrote:
Just noticed this new airline website, saw it mentioned on a frequent flyer website: Bonza Airlines? Another would-be LCC?

https://flybonza.com/

Wasn’t expecting this, new LCC flying 737 MAX8

“ “This is about opening up new routes and new markets, so the majority of the routes that we serve will not be operated by existing carriers.”

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-737-max

RoyalBrunei757 · Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:49 pm

kriskim wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Just noticed this new airline website, saw it mentioned on a frequent flyer website: Bonza Airlines? Another would-be LCC?

https://flybonza.com/

Wasn’t expecting this, new LCC flying 737 MAX8

“ “This is about opening up new routes and new markets, so the majority of the routes that we serve will not be operated by existing carriers.”

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-737-max

"Majority of the routes that we serve will not be operated by existing carriers" Flight to Timbuktu? Australian skies are rather saturated, Rex is limping....Virgin is loaded with cash now, QF aint gonna give up their 65% market share without going down to a tough fight.

IndianicWorld · Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:01 pm

Another airline? Good luck with that.

Their proposed model of flying routes that are not currently serviced sounds like a challenge.

I’m struggle to identify routes that even remotely stand out as options that meet their stated aim. A few potential but equally challenging routes I can think of would be:

Coffs Harbour-Adelaide
Canberra-Hamilton Island
Newcastle-Perth
Toowoomba-Adelaide

Even at low frequency it seems to be hard work to identify routes that would be able to support 737 sized aircraft. The reality is that they will likely struggle to find any Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane routes that aren’t already taken by existing carriers.

With QF, JQ, VA and ZL in the market already, it may seem like there are numerous missing opportunities, but this isn’t Europe or the US.

NZ516 · Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:44 pm

Indeed the unserved non stop city pairs will be very thin demand wise.
A few others could be Darwin to Hobart or Cairns to Hobart, Newcastle to Adelaide perhaps Townsville to Perth not sure if any others are really stand out and need a direct flight. There has already been growth of a lot of new point to point routes in the last two years by both QF and VA.

ClassicLover · Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:07 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qatar Airways is currently seeking additional frequencies to their bilateral to operate daily services to BNE year round. They also want to drop the CBR tag on the second SYD flight as well

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ha-flights

This play was always going to happen. Now it remains to be seen as to whether they are granted or not. Wasn't it Qantas lobbying to prevent them getting BNE access in the past?

RyanairGuru · Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:55 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
Another airline? Good luck with that.

Their proposed model of flying routes that are not currently serviced sounds like a challenge.

I’m struggle to identify routes that even remotely stand out as options that meet their stated aim. A few potential but equally challenging routes I can think of would be:

Coffs Harbour-Adelaide
Canberra-Hamilton Island
Newcastle-Perth
Toowoomba-Adelaide

Even at low frequency it seems to be hard work to identify routes that would be able to support 737 sized aircraft. The reality is that they will likely struggle to find any Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane routes that aren’t already taken by existing carriers.

With QF, JQ, VA and ZL in the market already, it may seem like there are numerous missing opportunities, but this isn’t Europe or the US.

I agree. The Australian market is fundamentally different to Europe, and the ‘Ryanair model’ is highly unlikely to work here. Our population density and geographic spread pretty much guarantees it.

tullamarine · Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:47 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
Another airline? Good luck with that.

Their proposed model of flying routes that are not currently serviced sounds like a challenge.

I’m struggle to identify routes that even remotely stand out as options that meet their stated aim. A few potential but equally challenging routes I can think of would be:

Coffs Harbour-Adelaide
Canberra-Hamilton Island
Newcastle-Perth
Toowoomba-Adelaide

Even at low frequency it seems to be hard work to identify routes that would be able to support 737 sized aircraft. The reality is that they will likely struggle to find any Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane routes that aren’t already taken by existing carriers.

With QF, JQ, VA and ZL in the market already, it may seem like there are numerous missing opportunities, but this isn’t Europe or the US.

I agree. The Australian market is fundamentally different to Europe, and the ‘Ryanair model’ is highly unlikely to work here. Our population density and geographic spread pretty much guarantees it.

The biggest issue here is the number of airports. In Europe, there are a number of jet-capable secondary airports around major cities that are keen to attract carriers. This is not really the case in Australia with Avalon being the obvious exception. WTB is too far away to be considered an alternative for BNE and SYD doesn't really have an alternative except NTL which, once again, is a long way away.

I am sort of attracted to Bonza's stated desire to solely pursue leisure routes; I think ZL's desire to enter Triangle markets is a potentially fatal error. If there is a market segment anywhere, it is ULCC though they will need to be prepared to accept the blowback from shows like The Project and ACA who will seek out pax who complain about lack of service even though that is exactly how ULCCs operate and consumers need to accept that if you get hit by a cancellation or miss your flight, you are on your own; that is why the fares are cheap.

The MAX8 is a comparatively big plane to fill on niche routes but smaller aircraft have higher seat costs so maybe it is a sweet spot.

a320fan · Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:05 pm

If they want to fly thin unserved markets the 737-8 is too much plane, unless they go the allegiant model and fly 2x weekly. If they’re capable/willing to bring in new aircraft an A220 sounds more suitable to these markets.

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