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Jomar777
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:22 am

astuteman wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
I am sorry but I simply do not get it. We have discussed the A220-500 soooo many times and the answer is simply one: no point in doing it. The A220 firstly needs to become profitable. Then it needs to be positioned as such as avoiding dilute the A320 orders. Why would Airbus create a direct competitor to their main product? Also, the A320 has one thing with their start product (the A321 portfolio of NEO, LR and XLR) which the A220 does not have: commonality. It is a hard drive to sell an A225 to a customer that would normally consider a A320 since it has A321s (e.g. Easyjet and Wizzair)...


Thanks for the opinion. I don't agree that the answer is anything like as simple or clear cut as you make out - explanation in the post above.
The A320NEO may be over the order hump already.
Yes, A220 needs to become profitable - Airbus suggest 2025-2026 for this.
By then we'll have a clearer view on the trajectory for the A320NEO.
You never know, it may be ripe for being replaced in the line up by an A220-500 by then.
If you had said "there's no point in doing it right now", I would have agreed :)

Rgds


Good points but, don't you think that, by 2025-2026 (when the A220 becomes profitable as per Airbus) would not be time to revamp the whole line? The A220 is going on the same path of the B737 in regards of potentially becoming an obsolete model. I always felt that, once they did took over the C-Series Project, that a MOM coveing both the A220 and A320 capabilities would be the natural course of action - by then, you would have something like an A220-500 but perfectly aligned (with no overlaps) with the rest of offering.

Mind you, after all the investment (and success) on the A321 line in recent years, one might wonder if it is the time to consider replacing it by something new.

That's why I really do not get the A220-500 debacle - it is the "right now" proposition. The "probably later" (when we would have something in the shape of an A220-500 but part of a bigger portfolio) is my bet.

Have a great day!
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:13 am

Jomar777 wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
I am sorry but I simply do not get it. We have discussed the A220-500 soooo many times and the answer is simply one: no point in doing it. The A220 firstly needs to become profitable. Then it needs to be positioned as such as avoiding dilute the A320 orders. Why would Airbus create a direct competitor to their main product? Also, the A320 has one thing with their start product (the A321 portfolio of NEO, LR and XLR) which the A220 does not have: commonality. It is a hard drive to sell an A225 to a customer that would normally consider a A320 since it has A321s (e.g. Easyjet and Wizzair)...


Thanks for the opinion. I don't agree that the answer is anything like as simple or clear cut as you make out - explanation in the post above.
The A320NEO may be over the order hump already.
Yes, A220 needs to become profitable - Airbus suggest 2025-2026 for this.
By then we'll have a clearer view on the trajectory for the A320NEO.
You never know, it may be ripe for being replaced in the line up by an A220-500 by then.
If you had said "there's no point in doing it right now", I would have agreed :)

Rgds


Good points but, don't you think that, by 2025-2026 (when the A220 becomes profitable as per Airbus) would not be time to revamp the whole line? The A220 is going on the same path of the B737 in regards of potentially becoming an obsolete model. I always felt that, once they did took over the C-Series Project, that a MOM coveing both the A220 and A320 capabilities would be the natural course of action - by then, you would have something like an A220-500 but perfectly aligned (with no overlaps) with the rest of offering.

Mind you, after all the investment (and success) on the A321 line in recent years, one might wonder if it is the time to consider replacing it by something new.

That's why I really do not get the A220-500 debacle - it is the "right now" proposition. The "probably later" (when we would have something in the shape of an A220-500 but part of a bigger portfolio) is my bet.

Have a great day!


Just a couple of observations:-
Not sure how the A220 becomes potentially obsolete on the same path as the 737 - the A220 is probably the most advanced narrowbody out there - CFRP wings an all - the 737, er, isn't... to put it mildly

I also don't think that most people would consider a model covering A220 and A320 as a "MOM" - by definition MOM surely sits above the narrowbodys and below the widebodys.
What you describe is a all new single-aisle (NSA)
I don't see Airbus stopping building the A321NEO for a very long time. I just don't see the driver.
What do you think would prompt Airbus to consider replacing it, and when?

Rgds
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:03 am

seahawk wrote:
The A321 sells because it is often the logical replacement of the A320, that you ordered 15 years ago. The natural growths of demand, means that a A321 is the better choice on routes currently seeing the A320. Another point is that there are very few A321CEOs to be had used.

Imho Airbus needs to launch the A322 before it can launch the A225.


Not necessarily. Much easier to launch the 225 than the 320NWF (New Wing Family). As demand for the 320NEO winds down and the NEO program increasingly becomes focused on the 321NEO, they'll have room to launch the 225. Including a FAL in Europe.

For the 320NWF, they sorta have to wait for Boeing to make its move. In the meantime, they develop the wings, work with the engine makers, and work on production optimization. They will need to be able to EIS the 320NWF within 3-4 years of launch. And everything they do, including making space in Toulouse and Hamburg for new optimized FALs, will be focused on that.

But if Boeing does nothing for the next 5 years, Airbus will eventually pull the trigger when all their infrastructure and precursor tech is in place.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:10 am

If the A220 follows the B737's path to obsolescence, my calculation is the last new build will come off the production line around 2085!!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:02 pm

TObound wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The A321 sells because it is often the logical replacement of the A320, that you ordered 15 years ago. The natural growths of demand, means that a A321 is the better choice on routes currently seeing the A320. Another point is that there are very few A321CEOs to be had used.

Imho Airbus needs to launch the A322 before it can launch the A225.


Not necessarily. Much easier to launch the 225 than the 320NWF (New Wing Family). As demand for the 320NEO winds down and the NEO program increasingly becomes focused on the 321NEO, they'll have room to launch the 225. Including a FAL in Europe.

For the 320NWF, they sorta have to wait for Boeing to make its move. In the meantime, they develop the wings, work with the engine makers, and work on production optimization. They will need to be able to EIS the 320NWF within 3-4 years of launch. And everything they do, including making space in Toulouse and Hamburg for new optimized FALs, will be focused on that.

But if Boeing does nothing for the next 5 years, Airbus will eventually pull the trigger when all their infrastructure and precursor tech is in place.


I doubt we will see a new wing on the A320 series. A simple A322 as a A321 stretch would be enough. What I do know tough, is that they want spent money to compete with themselves. So A225 only makes sense if the A320 series FALs are busy building bigger siblings.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:30 pm

Would the A225 be able to have transcon range in the winter, BOS-LAX for example?
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:40 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:
Would the A225 be able to have transcon range in the winter, BOS-LAX for example?


Probably not, but those routes would be well served by A321NEO and 737-8 fleets. That provide better capacity and space for galleys, lavatories, luggage and premium cabins on those longer flights.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:10 pm

keesje wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:
Would the A225 be able to have transcon range in the winter, BOS-LAX for example?


Probably not, but those routes would be well served by A321NEO and 737-8 fleets. That provide better capacity and space for galleys, lavatories, luggage and premium cabins on those longer flights.


Interesting....I was just curious about the flexibility it would bring airlines specifically B6 & DL on transcon routes when their normal equipment for the route is unavailable
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:18 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:
keesje wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:
Would the A225 be able to have transcon range in the winter, BOS-LAX for example?


Probably not, but those routes would be well served by A321NEO and 737-8 fleets. That provide better capacity and space for galleys, lavatories, luggage and premium cabins on those longer flights.


Interesting....I was just curious about the flexibility it would bring airlines specifically B6 & DL on transcon routes when their normal equipment for the route is unavailable


I assumed a conservative approach, using A223HGW MTOW, wings, engines etc. The engineers would trade range for capacity. Using e.g. a dual class 148 seat cabin would recover some range.

Image

2350NM / 4 hours gives good Europe, China, US East coast coverage. But also a high percentage of existing feeder, lcc cost and leisure flights.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:26 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:
Would the A225 be able to have transcon range in the winter, BOS-LAX for example?


Or you can keep building A320s if you really need the range but not the 40pax increase of the A321. Again, I see the A320 as still on offer, but Airbus would rather you buy the A220-500, A321 or A322... much like the A319 is still on offer though clearly in direct competition to the A220-300.
 
Duke91
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:26 pm

It's obvious that a A225 would only benefit airlines now, but not Airbus. Classical prisoners dilemma: Airbus goes for the A225, Boeing would need to react or lose even more market share. The is in the drawer in case Boeing would ever do a clean sheet narrow body again.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:23 am

marcelh wrote:
oldJoe wrote:
Olddog wrote:
I guess that if Airbus want build a FAL in EU they may consider Sevilla (Spain). Hambourg and Toulouse are already packed.


Toulouse packed ? What about the closed A380 FAL and the outfitting in Hamburg? Plenty of space, isn`t it ?

IIRC the closed A380 FAL will become an A32x FAL.


I I compare the size of both aircaft there should be planty of space left ! No word of you about the painting and outfitting space at XFW, why ?
 
Canuck600
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:45 am

Are the part sales & ancillary services (training) parts of the A220 cash positive? I would tend to think that the training part might not be as I believe that a certain amount of training for mechanics is provided for free as part of the aircraft sales package.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:05 am

astuteman wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
astuteman wrote:

Thanks for the opinion. I don't agree that the answer is anything like as simple or clear cut as you make out - explanation in the post above.
The A320NEO may be over the order hump already.
Yes, A220 needs to become profitable - Airbus suggest 2025-2026 for this.
By then we'll have a clearer view on the trajectory for the A320NEO.
You never know, it may be ripe for being replaced in the line up by an A220-500 by then.
If you had said "there's no point in doing it right now", I would have agreed :)

Rgds


Good points but, don't you think that, by 2025-2026 (when the A220 becomes profitable as per Airbus) would not be time to revamp the whole line? The A220 is going on the same path of the B737 in regards of potentially becoming an obsolete model. I always felt that, once they did took over the C-Series Project, that a MOM coveing both the A220 and A320 capabilities would be the natural course of action - by then, you would have something like an A220-500 but perfectly aligned (with no overlaps) with the rest of offering.

Mind you, after all the investment (and success) on the A321 line in recent years, one might wonder if it is the time to consider replacing it by something new.

That's why I really do not get the A220-500 debacle - it is the "right now" proposition. The "probably later" (when we would have something in the shape of an A220-500 but part of a bigger portfolio) is my bet.

Have a great day!


Just a couple of observations:-
Not sure how the A220 becomes potentially obsolete on the same path as the 737 - the A220 is probably the most advanced narrowbody out there - CFRP wings an all - the 737, er, isn't... to put it mildly

I also don't think that most people would consider a model covering A220 and A320 as a "MOM" - by definition MOM surely sits above the narrowbodys and below the widebodys.
What you describe is a all new single-aisle (NSA)
I don't see Airbus stopping building the A321NEO for a very long time. I just don't see the driver.
What do you think would prompt Airbus to consider replacing it, and when?

Rgds


Good points.

To clarify, the A220 is not obsolete now neither in the new future. It is not the most but one of the mot advanced planes around (you might not like the figures but the E-Jets, including the E2, are quite impressive and "do what they say on the tin" and, additionally, are profitable - not better but quite good too).

However, the A320 is becoming obsolete now. You are probably right that, rather than mention a MOM, I should mention NSA but the meaning is the same - soon Airbus will have to come up with an 320 replacement. Maybe it is already looking into it when it declares that the A220-500 is not a matter of "if" but "when". But this "when" might probably mean time to replace (and certainly unify) their whole NB range.

The only issue (a good one...) here is the A321 - for years people (loads of them here on a.net) joked about the "B757 Widows" saying that there was no market for a NB for that range. Boeing missed the bus in not coming up either with a B757 NG or a B757MAX and Airbus took the mantle with the A321LR and the A321XLR and both filled the gap quite impressively. So these might become in near future like the A350 and offer no commonality but this is life.

Remember: since the beginning, one of Airbus' USPs was always fleet commonality and that's why the whole A320 family is very close to the A330 which in the past was the main product until the A380 and the A350 came along.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:12 am

keesje wrote:
I assumed a conservative approach, using A223HGW MTOW, wings, engines etc. The engineers would trade range for capacity. Using e.g. a dual class 148 seat cabin would recover some range.

Image


What do these figures look like against a 737-300 and 737-500? These were very successful aircraft for their time, the A220 is arguably closer in concept to these aircraft than the 73W and 319ceo.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:59 am

BrianDromey wrote:
keesje wrote:
I assumed a conservative approach, using A223HGW MTOW, wings, engines etc. The engineers would trade range for capacity. Using e.g. a dual class 148 seat cabin would recover some range.

Image


What do these figures look like against a 737-300 and 737-500? These were very successful aircraft for their time, the A220 is arguably closer in concept to these aircraft than the 73W and 319ceo.


The quiet, reliable CFM56-3 did miracles for the 737 Classics. They had the old -200 wings, pre super critical. profiles, less fuel capacity, but for the rest close to A220 cabin specs indeed.
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:02 am

Jomar777 wrote:
astuteman wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:

Good points but, don't you think that, by 2025-2026 (when the A220 becomes profitable as per Airbus) would not be time to revamp the whole line? The A220 is going on the same path of the B737 in regards of potentially becoming an obsolete model. I always felt that, once they did took over the C-Series Project, that a MOM coveing both the A220 and A320 capabilities would be the natural course of action - by then, you would have something like an A220-500 but perfectly aligned (with no overlaps) with the rest of offering.

Mind you, after all the investment (and success) on the A321 line in recent years, one might wonder if it is the time to consider replacing it by something new.

That's why I really do not get the A220-500 debacle - it is the "right now" proposition. The "probably later" (when we would have something in the shape of an A220-500 but part of a bigger portfolio) is my bet.

Have a great day!


Just a couple of observations:-
Not sure how the A220 becomes potentially obsolete on the same path as the 737 - the A220 is probably the most advanced narrowbody out there - CFRP wings an all - the 737, er, isn't... to put it mildly

I also don't think that most people would consider a model covering A220 and A320 as a "MOM" - by definition MOM surely sits above the narrowbodys and below the widebodys.
What you describe is a all new single-aisle (NSA)
I don't see Airbus stopping building the A321NEO for a very long time. I just don't see the driver.
What do you think would prompt Airbus to consider replacing it, and when?

Rgds


Good points.

To clarify, the A220 is not obsolete now neither in the new future. It is not the most but one of the mot advanced planes around (you might not like the figures but the E-Jets, including the E2, are quite impressive and "do what they say on the tin" and, additionally, are profitable - not better but quite good too).

However, the A320 is becoming obsolete now. You are probably right that, rather than mention a MOM, I should mention NSA but the meaning is the same - soon Airbus will have to come up with an 320 replacement. Maybe it is already looking into it when it declares that the A220-500 is not a matter of "if" but "when". But this "when" might probably mean time to replace (and certainly unify) their whole NB range.

The only issue (a good one...) here is the A321 - for years people (loads of them here on a.net) joked about the "B757 Widows" saying that there was no market for a NB for that range. Boeing missed the bus in not coming up either with a B757 NG or a B757MAX and Airbus took the mantle with the A321LR and the A321XLR and both filled the gap quite impressively. So these might become in near future like the A350 and offer no commonality but this is life.

Remember: since the beginning, one of Airbus' USPs was always fleet commonality and that's why the whole A320 family is very close to the A330 which in the past was the main product until the A380 and the A350 came along.


Thanks for the reply.

I take the commonality point on board - it has always been one of Airbus' greatest stregths in the market.

We could probably have a great semantic debate about what "obsolete" means for the A320NEO.
I think a useful conversation germane to the thread is to discuss what events might make the A320 obsolete.
we discuss narrow body replacement quite a lot, but what's the commercial driver?

There's a view that because of their strong position currently, airbus won't jump first.
And Boeing have just committed to the 737-10 and it is selling
So will we see another decade on MOM posturing, or will something real happen?

Assuming that at some point something does, and that the MOM driver includes frames from both OEM's larger than the current narrowbodys, it is questionable whether the whole narrowbody range from A319/A223/737-7 to A322+/753/762 size could be accommodated by one family.

There has been a lot of discussion about the "MOM sized" aircraft starting at A321/737-10 size and spanning up to c. 767-200 size.
Whilst speculation, such a solution by definition would leave the A320NEO (and presumably the 737-8) as orphans.

It's at that point, should it happen this way, that one of the options for Airbus is to have a narrow-body line-up that looks like:-

A220-300
A220-500
A321 sized new aircraft
A322 sized new aircraft
A323 sized new aircraft (possibly)

As the A321 replacement would be new, that may be an opportunity to address the commonality issue between the two.

An interim offering might look like:-

A220-300
A220-500
A321NEO
A322NEO

not quite common, but indeed acknowledging that the A320 would have been obsoleted by a combination of the A220 and A321NEO.

That would free up the NEO line to maximise profit on the bigger NEO's and build volume in the A220 to deliver profitability.

Not saying this is my prediction, but I certainly think it's plausible

rgds
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:57 pm

astuteman wrote:

I take the commonality point on board - it has always been one of Airbus' greatest stregths in the market.


As the A321 replacement would be new, that may be an opportunity to address the commonality issue between the two.



I have been wondering about this too, although I am not entirely sure how important a common type rating is for potential customers it has been the modus operandi for both OEMS recently. With Airbus even managing to bridge entire generations of aircraft and successfully get the A340\A330 and the A350 on one ticket it makes one wonder how they will eventually tackle the A220 being a bit of an odd ball.

As you suggest; when developing the 322 or eventual 321 replacement would seem to be the logical time to address this. However, with the exception of single pilot operations I don’t see any new development in terms of flight deck technology which would require a significant update to the systems Airbus has been using for almost 30 years now. In fact, I would think it more prudent of them to ensure that a new MOM 322 or 321 can be operated by existing Neo crews.

With that in mind, then wouldn’t it make more sense to address the problem at the same time as stretching the A220 to make a 500 version? I am sure It will be very expensive and complicated, but considering it has the potential to replace the A320 it would make perfect sense to me that it is able to be flown by A32X crews. And lest we forget that this is also somewhat of an Airbus speciality, they have pioneered flight control systems from their very inception and IIRC they still do all the development and testing of such systems in house. So they certainly have the “mad skillz” to do it.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:16 pm

I suggest commonality between A220 series and A321 replacement will be achieved by using the former's systems in the latter.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:55 pm

oldJoe wrote:
I I compare the size of both aircaft there should be planty of space left ! No word of you about the painting and outfitting space at XFW, why ?

I thought the newest A320 line at XFW used up some of that space, and now the XLR's new interim center/rear fuse pre-FAL is using some too. Would be nice if an insider would fill us in on how much space seems to be available now that the final A380s are close to delivery.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I suggest commonality between A220 series and A321 replacement will be achieved by using the former's systems in the latter.

I don't think this will be easy to do. A320 family cockpit tech was mostly in-house (given they were at the state of the art back then) whereas BBD largely purchased tech from what we now know as Collins ( https://www.intelligent-aerospace.com/c ... l-computer ). Even though A220's cockpit is more advanced in some ways, the commercial realities strongly work against it, IMO. Either way convergence will require a lot of engineering work on one or both platforms.

It's a major dilemma for the A220 program. The industry has huge investments in the A320 family in terms of flight sims, knowledge base, etc. Airbus has an ideal "lock in" factor working in the A320's favor, not to mention already owning the intellectual property behind it all. If there is to be a convergence, there are a lot of reasons why converging to the A320 makes more sense than converging towards the A220, even though A220 may be more advanced in some ways. Yet converging to A320 style cockpit would mean pretty much re-doing the certification of A220 and getting buy-in from the existing customer base, which is also problematic.

Personally I see A220 retaining "interesting side project, but just that" status and living/dying on its own merits, rather than the suggestion that it will be the basis of the next generation of Airbus narrow body platforms, because the A320 platform is far more prevalent in the market. I don't really see anyone inside Airbus signaling anything but this, regardless of all the aspirational posts I read here. I see Airbus learning interesting things from the platform, but IMO the evolutionary path will be continued enhancement of the A320 family using the "Wing of Tomorrow" that they've been working on for many years now. I don't think Airbus is focusing on the whole A320.5 vs A225 issue, they're more than happy with the current line up covering this space and are more focused on extending the lead they have with A321.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:26 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I suggest commonality between A220 series and A321 replacement will be achieved by using the former's systems in the latter.


Apart from changing the displays, the rest of the flight deck configuration isn’t all that easy to modify sincere control and logic affects the functional hazard assessments. From what I’ve seen, the A220 cockpit is more like a 787 than A321 with the exception of the side stick.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:25 pm

Personally I expect Airbus at some point in the future (perhaps at A220-500 launch, perhaps before) to publish an updated production ramp up based on the gates Airbus wants to jump through first as Revelation put it. Cost, demand, full program ownership, all playing a role.

I wouldn't be surprised if such ramp up would go from the current 14 at 2025 to 18 and 25 in 2027. Beyond that would probably depend on an EU FAL.

This scenario seems to be ever becoming more likely: viewtopic.php?t=1400805
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:19 pm

astuteman wrote:

As the A321 replacement would be new, that may be an opportunity to address the commonality issue between the two.

An interim offering might look like:-

A220-300
A220-500
A321NEO
A322NEO

not quite common, but indeed acknowledging that the A320 would have been obsoleted by a combination of the A220 and A321NEO.


I can't see the A320NEO disappearing, probably at least another 1000-1500 will roll of the lines. If Airbus limits itself to "simple" stretches (no MTOW increases) of a A220-500 based on A220-300 and a A322NEO based on A321XLR that could be a low risk route moving forward.

The A319NEO and A220-100 backlogs and market potential seem to be cranking, so they might be retired from the portfolio to simplify processes.

An A320.5NEO seems a more difficult proposition. "Simply" stretching the A320NEO would reduce range compared to 737MAX, A320NEO & A321NEO too much, shrinking the A321NEO/XLR would reduce efficiency. A "Frankenstein" approach could be used, but investment would still be significant IMO. And, even ATO of such a ~200 seater would trigger an new NB Boeing program in my opinion, because it would rob the 737MAX -8 and -9 of their seat capacity niche.

Image
source : keesje
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:40 pm

keesje wrote:
An A320.5NEO seems a more difficult proposition. "Simply" stretching the A320NEO would reduce range compared to 737MAX, A320NEO & A321NEO too much,


I'm not so sure. An A320.5 would almost certainly go along with a significant engine PIP and then there's still a chance it would get the new wing as well.
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:22 pm

keesje wrote:
astuteman wrote:

As the A321 replacement would be new, that may be an opportunity to address the commonality issue between the two.

An interim offering might look like:-

A220-300
A220-500
A321NEO
A322NEO

not quite common, but indeed acknowledging that the A320 would have been obsoleted by a combination of the A220 and A321NEO.


I can't see the A320NEO disappearing, probably at least another 1000-1500 will roll of the lines.


I would sincerely hope so - there are over 2,500 still in backlog :)

Rgds
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:44 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
Personally I expect Airbus at some point in the future (perhaps at A220-500 launch, perhaps before) to publish an updated production ramp up based on the gates Airbus wants to jump through first as Revelation put it. Cost, demand, full program ownership, all playing a role.


Doubt it. That would tie management's hands and force them to explain any deviations from the published plan. Vague announcements are more common, like 'Production will be ramped up at the appropriate time.' The exception to that would be a big CapEx commitment, like a FAL, or other their own or vendor tooling.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:13 pm

astuteman wrote:
keesje wrote:
astuteman wrote:

As the A321 replacement would be new, that may be an opportunity to address the commonality issue between the two.

An interim offering might look like:-

A220-300
A220-500
A321NEO
A322NEO

not quite common, but indeed acknowledging that the A320 would have been obsoleted by a combination of the A220 and A321NEO.


I can't see the A320NEO disappearing, probably at least another 1000-1500 will roll of the lines.


I would sincerely hope so - there are over 2,500 still in backlog :)

Rgds


If Airbus enthousiatically supports conversion$, deliveries of the A320NEO could come down from the 250-300 per year scheduled.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:13 am

And why should Airbus do this?
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:09 am

An A321 makes more money.

In Toulouse Airbus was building A320s only, with Hamburg (and Mobile) taking care of the all A321's. Fine until the balance started to move. Now Toulouse will shift to A321s too. Politics.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... louse.html
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:45 am

It's just not the right moment for launching any -500. This is why Airbus doesn't do it now. Airlines are still recovering from covid and don't have the money to spend. And Airbus is putting the available budget in renovating the A220 production system to make the program profitable while Air France has no money to order big time.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:35 am

Noshow wrote:
It's just not the right moment for launching any -500. This is why Airbus doesn't do it now. Airlines are still recovering from covid and don't have the money to spend. And Airbus is putting the available budget in renovating the A220 production system to make the program profitable while Air France has no money to order big time.


Also, its an buyers market. Which means A225 sale price will be suppressed.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:03 pm

keesje wrote:
An A321 makes more money.

In Toulouse Airbus was building A320s only, with Hamburg (and Mobile) taking care of the all A321's. Fine until the balance started to move. Now Toulouse will shift to A321s too. Politics.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... louse.html


If they enthusiastically support conversions from A320 to A321 it is very dubious that they will make more money.
 
Rekoff
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:46 pm

The A220-500 will need time to ramp up and gain traction / widespread ecosystem and maintenance support. Until that time the A320 will be necessary.
For the A320 successor (A230? coining it here...) things would be different when it arrives in the 30ies, when the A220 has gained it's place with Airlines.

I can see a 2035 narrowbody line up like this:

A220-200 (slightly stretched to 36,5m EIS ~2030)
A220-300
A220-500 (EIS ~2027)

A230-100 ("A320.5" class successor EIS ~2030-2035)
A230-300 (A321 successor)
A230-500 ("A322" class successor)

I dont think we will ever see a A320.5 or A322 because it would only be on the market for 8-10 years. But seeing the massive gap between the A320 and A321, and between A321 and A330 airbus might decide upsell profits are worth the investment, even with short lifecycle.
Forcing Boeing to respond earlier then they'd like (and respond to that with the A230) might be another reason for the A320.5 and A322 if they manage to expand production rates and capacity aggressively enough for airlines to defect from the MAX8 and 10.
Gauging market demand capacity sweet spots for its successor might be a third argument in favor of both. Or a combination of all three.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:38 pm

I think guarantees by Airbus that they will field a -500 towards the end of this decade might make a difference for KLM/Transavia, who will take a NB decision soon. They operate 150 - 180 seat 737s.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/boeing-un ... en-bei-klm
 
Babyshark
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:43 am

seahawk wrote:
And why should Airbus do this?


To make a half dozen people posting on airliners.net really happy.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:49 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
I suggest commonality between A220 series and A321 replacement will be achieved by using the former's systems in the latter.


Apart from changing the displays, the rest of the flight deck configuration isn’t all that easy to modify sincere control and logic affects the functional hazard assessments. From what I’ve seen, the A220 cockpit is more like a 787 than A321 with the exception of the side stick.


The A220 avionics suite is pretty but not where an airline cockpit should be. Fine for a corporate jet though.

A lot of money needs to be dumped into that aircraft to make it viable and why do that?

Same as the 320.5 idea… why do that when you can buy a 321? Because of right sizing?

That’s so 1990s. We are in the age of cartels. Give the market half of what it wants, supply and demand
kicks in, you make more money.

if anyone tries to come in to seize on the demand you drive them out of business. And promote yourself as super woke and you have political cover.
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:00 am

keesje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Significant fuel savings would be the only way to beat MAX8 and slows its momentum.


The A320NEO is a bit lighter than the 737-8, has ~4% better sfc LEAPS because of its higher BPR, that have lower thrust rates too. 737-8 burning less fuel than a A320NEO would be a miracle IMO.

I doubt if Airbus will "ever" replace the A320NEO. It still has a huge customer base, backlog and unique capability. Even compared to an A220-500 (range, AKH). Top up orders will be substantial.

:arrow: An A220-500 would be an addition, offering unmatched effiency on shorter, lighter flights. Production volumes (6/month today going 15 by 2025) only half A320 family volumes (45/month today going 64 by 2023) would be at least a decade away..


We have to remember that the cabin for the MAX8 is slightly longer than A320neo. It could carry 12-18 extra seats inside the cabin. This works particular well for Full service airlines that require extra space for business class and lavatories in the main cabin.

While production volumes might be low. Would there be significant push for increase if the order start pouring in? There would be more incentive to do so. Beside, it's not like A220-500 would increase the sale of A220-100 or A220-300. You probably see some costumer convert to the larger A220-500 once its launched.

By the time A220-500 start production, A220-100 would be dead, and the backlog for A220-300 would decrease to such a low amount, all but 1-2 slots for monthly production would go to A220-500 instead.
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:08 am

Babyshark wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
I suggest commonality between A220 series and A321 replacement will be achieved by using the former's systems in the latter.


Apart from changing the displays, the rest of the flight deck configuration isn’t all that easy to modify sincere control and logic affects the functional hazard assessments. From what I’ve seen, the A220 cockpit is more like a 787 than A321 with the exception of the side stick.


The A220 avionics suite is pretty but not where an airline cockpit should be. Fine for a corporate jet though.

A lot of money needs to be dumped into that aircraft to make it viable and why do that?

Same as the 320.5 idea… why do that when you can buy a 321? Because of right sizing?

That’s so 1990s. We are in the age of cartels. Give the market half of what it wants, supply and demand
kicks in, you make more money.

if anyone tries to come in to seize on the demand you drive them out of business. And promote yourself as super woke and you have political cover.


The concept of A320.5 is a simple stretch by adding 3-4 extra frames into A320. They wouldn't increase the MTOW, modified the wings or change the engines. It's a really simple plug and play solution to increase capacity and provide better fuel efficiency.
This would increase the capacity by 12-18 passengers or 2-3 rows of seats. Bringing the capacity on par with B737-800. The longer cabin would be more useful for Full Service airlines compared to LCCs. Because the exit limit stays the same.

A321neo would have 30-40 more seats and range than A320.5.

And please keep politics and insults out of the discussion. The last line of your comment doesn't make any sense to the discussion.
 
yyztpa2
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:38 pm

Babyshark wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
I suggest commonality between A220 series and A321 replacement will be achieved by using the former's systems in the latter.


Apart from changing the displays, the rest of the flight deck configuration isn’t all that easy to modify sincere control and logic affects the functional hazard assessments. From what I’ve seen, the A220 cockpit is more like a 787 than A321 with the exception of the side stick.


The A220 avionics suite is pretty but not where an airline cockpit should be. Fine for a corporate jet though.

A lot of money needs to be dumped into that aircraft to make it viable and why do that?

Same as the 320.5 idea… why do that when you can buy a 321? Because of right sizing?

That’s so 1990s. We are in the age of cartels. Give the market half of what it wants, supply and demand
kicks in, you make more money.

if anyone tries to come in to seize on the demand you drive them out of business. And promote yourself as super woke and you have political cover.


"The A220 avionics suite is pretty but not where an airline cockpit should be. Fine for a corporate jet though. "
Odd coment. Can you elaborate based on your experience?
 
stratable
Posts: 71
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:59 pm

Babyshark wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
I suggest commonality between A220 series and A321 replacement will be achieved by using the former's systems in the latter.


Apart from changing the displays, the rest of the flight deck configuration isn’t all that easy to modify sincere control and logic affects the functional hazard assessments. From what I’ve seen, the A220 cockpit is more like a 787 than A321 with the exception of the side stick.


The A220 avionics suite is pretty but not where an airline cockpit should be. Fine for a corporate jet though.

A lot of money needs to be dumped into that aircraft to make it viable and why do that?

Same as the 320.5 idea… why do that when you can buy a 321? Because of right sizing?

That’s so 1990s. We are in the age of cartels. Give the market half of what it wants, supply and demand
kicks in, you make more money.

If anyone tries to come in to seize on the demand you drive them out of business. And promote yourself as super woke and you have political cover.



You need to innovate and move your products forward otherwise will competition will drive you out. Neither Europe nor the US is part of some sort of regulated economy
where state interests protect certain manufacturers to the death of innovation and economic growth. Sure, both the EU and US support Airbus and Boeing. But if the products become stale and someone else moves in there could be trouble for both Airbus and Boeing. The narrowbody market might actually be big enough for another major producer.
Bombardier was forced to sell their fine attempt to Airbus. But who is to say Embraer would not want to give it a shot (with respective Brazilian support) if they saw an opportunity of stagnation at Airbus and Boeing. Heck even other private companies. Look a what Space X has done in the space industry.

Innovation is key and lots of studies are produced every year even at successful companies like Airbus and Boeing.
We might see Airbus streamline a new A320 variant with more C-Series tech. Or we will see an all-new plane in the 2030s, or both.
The A320 today sure isn't what it was in the late 1980s. I definitely like the idea of an A220-500 and an 320.5neo/A322 combo as discussed above.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:20 pm

Just a quick response from me, I cannot see properly at the moment to compose a response worth reading..I also find it really frustrating :(

PS I'm epileptic...and its normal after I have had a fit, I am hoping it will return to watch F1 tomorrow... which reminds me I actually need the F1 thread to get the qualifying results for a change as I missed it while in A&E....Off to spam some more in OT.. then hopefully I will be able to read and respond on topic here :)
 
mga707
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:45 pm

So NOBODY'S going to mention the fly, who has now made two appearances?
 
Prost
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:59 pm

That is his watermark.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:00 pm

Please post a link to copyright material.
If you post copyrighted material without a source, we mods must delete the post and all posts that reference it.

Lightsaber
 
2175301
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:17 pm

mga707 wrote:
So NOBODY'S going to mention the fly, who has now made two appearances?


Notice that we have never seen that fly actually flying, even after all of these years (or should I say decades).

It seems to me that it just may be a "paper fly."
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:27 pm

I don't think the commonality issue between A220 and A320 is that big of a problem. Most airlines who potentially acquire A220-500 will already have a fleet and pilot pool of A220-100/300.

McDonnell Douglas offered the MD-90 with two different flight decks, one that was nearly identical to MD-88, and one more modern glass cockpit closer to the MD-95 (717) and MD-11. In the end, most airlines decided to go for the MD-88 version because it required minimum training, and I believe it shared a common type rating with the MD-87/88. Saudi Arabian Airlines was the only airline that went for the modern cockpit.

If Airbus really wanted to, they could create an "A320 logic" cockpit that required less training for crews transitioning from the A320-series. But I don't think they would get a common type rating unless an entirely new certification was done for the A220.

I think it's cheaper and easier to train crews to fly the A220 as it is. It's not that different. I think an A320 pilot would feel at home very quickly.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:38 pm

ewt340 wrote:
The concept of A320.5 is a simple stretch by adding 3-4 extra frames into A320. They wouldn't increase the MTOW, modified the wings or change the engines. It's a really simple plug and play solution to increase capacity and provide better fuel efficiency.
This would increase the capacity by 12-18 passengers or 2-3 rows of seats. Bringing the capacity on par with B737-800. The longer cabin would be more useful for Full Service airlines compared to LCCs. Because the exit limit stays the same.

Thing is, this concept has been around long before A320neo, and I haven't heard of customers pushing for it nor Airbus even floating the idea.

This is different from A225 where both Airbus and customers openly discuss the concept.

If it was such a simple thing, why hasn't it been done already?

I suggest it's because both customers and vendor are happy enough with the current models.

Honestly, the A320.5 thing seems to be manufactured hype.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
The concept of A320.5 is a simple stretch by adding 3-4 extra frames into A320. They wouldn't increase the MTOW, modified the wings or change the engines. It's a really simple plug and play solution to increase capacity and provide better fuel efficiency.
This would increase the capacity by 12-18 passengers or 2-3 rows of seats. Bringing the capacity on par with B737-800. The longer cabin would be more useful for Full Service airlines compared to LCCs. Because the exit limit stays the same.

Thing is, this concept has been around long before A320neo, and I haven't heard of customers pushing for it nor Airbus even floating the idea.

This is different from A225 where both Airbus and customers openly discuss the concept.

If it was such a simple thing, why hasn't it been done already?

I suggest it's because both customers and vendor are happy enough with the current models.

Honestly, the A320.5 thing seems to be manufactured hype.

Differentiation is just not there. Want more seats than A320, just get the A321 and be happy about the extra seats…
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:21 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Differentiation is just not there. Want more seats than A320, just get the A321 and be happy about the extra seats…

A320.5 seems to have been created out of thin air solely to push the A320 out of the way to make a gap for A225.

Seems pretty dubious to me.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Differentiation is just not there. Want more seats than A320, just get the A321 and be happy about the extra seats…

A320.5 seems to have been created out of thin air solely to push the A320 out of the way to make a gap for A225.

Seems pretty dubious to me.


I think Keesje floated the A320.5 quite a while before Airbus even took over the C-series.

The argumention can be found on the first post here on A.net

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