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frigatebird
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:27 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:
Airbus has a healthy backlog of the A320. A 220-500 would compete with the 320. It’s been suggested to LNA that Airbus will launch the -500 when orders for the A320 largely dry up and the backlog is reduced. Scherer didn’t directly address these speculative points. But he did say the 220 program needs to achieve profitability first.

“When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.


https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/16/air-l ... ent-425041


OK not before 2025 then, I assume.
 
Duke91
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:36 pm

Just pay list price to turn the a220 program profitable so that they release the 500... 4d chess
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Tue Nov 16, 2021 1:25 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."


There has been a lot of comment in other threads that the A321 is gaining the lions share of the orders, while the A320 has become more like the A319 of the CEO generation and is much less favoured. Interestingly that is not quite the mix we are seeing with the 737 where the MAX-8 seems to be the most popular model. It seems that the NEO and the popularity of the A321 has created a gap for the A220-500. There are a few reasons this might be:
1) The engines on the NEO are optimised for the larger members of the family and it works best on the A321. It's likely that the -800 was slightly cheaper to operate than the A320ceo and the MAX Vs NEO evolutions have made the -8 and A321s the standout members of their respective families, mainly because of the larger fan on the A32x.
2) The NEO is out-selling the Max roughly 2:1, Airbus dont see the need to discount to win business from the 737.
3) Airbus are seeing great margins for the A321 and don't feel the need to sell that production slot as an A319/320.
4) More expensive aircraft acquisition costs favour larger aircraft with more seats/cargo volume to spread the cost over, again favouring the A321.
5) Airlines are finding they can fill the additional seats and more dense cabins drive costs and Co2 down in times where fuel, labour and environmental taxes are rising. Again favouring the A321.
6) Airbus has visibility into the future about A320.5, A322 and know what airlines have been saying to them about their future needs. Boeing will have this too, but do they have an option other than a clean-sheet design? Airbus might not want to sell cheap A320s when they will be trying to place A220-500s in a few years.

I don't think any one of those reasons on their own make the business case for the A220-500, but they contribute. There are a large number of A319s to be replaced and it seems that the A220-500 might be more optimal than the A320neo for some, especially if the A321 is too large. Airbus will want to be in that game, it seems with the A319/320neo they are not quite there.
 
TC957
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:01 pm

Is that such a bad thing if an A220-500 sells instead of an A320 ? Could help release some of the 320/321 product slots which are full till deep into 2025 now, thus enabling Airbus to go after more sales of 321's if slots prior to 2025 come up by airlines switching orders.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:27 pm

About the A220, it could benefit from a larger member the A220-500. But they could also offer a 6 abreast option initially, this is for Asian market and low cost carriers. For shorter range flights.
Another option for shorter range market is reuse the fuselage for an A210 (DC9); with T-tail, tail mounted preferably ductless fan engines, and smaller wings. 10mT lighter for <3000km range, >10% fuel consumption reduction. The A210 members are likely smaller than the A220 members.
I think the Dassault 10X could also form the basis for a new European regional jet.

AFAIK: there were two generations of A320CEO, the small wing fence (Winglets) and the sharklets (large wing fence). With the transition to the sharklets the demand shifted from A319/A320 to A320/A321. The NEO added weight for the engines and increased range, thus demand shifted further to the A321. Airbus also made improvements to the A321, the ACF (Airbus Cabin Flex), LR (Long Range, additional fuel container). Lastly Airbus is developing the A321XLR with larger center fuel tank, and redesigned wing surfaces.
AFAIK Airbus has made known that they are going to change the A320 and A321NEO so they all use the same single flap wing surfaces. Possibly Airbus has some A320 changes planned for implementation at that time.
I think the Wing for the Future if implemented will be used for the successor of the A320family. I've the impression Airbus is waiting for technology to mature before they launch something new. Their offering is good for this moment. If an airline doesn't like the A320, because it offers to little seats, they can order the A321ACF.
I see one problem for the A320NEO+, Airbus has to stretch or shrink the A320/A321 with AKH container sizes, so with 60.4" (1.534m) increments. I don't think this works out.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:51 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
About the A220, it could benefit from a larger member the A220-500. But they could also offer a 6 abreast option initially, this is for Asian market and low cost carriers. For shorter range flights.
Another option for shorter range market is reuse the fuselage for an A210 (DC9); with T-tail, tail mounted preferably ductless fan engines, and smaller wings. 10mT lighter for <3000km range, >10% fuel consumption reduction. The A210 members are likely smaller than the A220 members.
I think the Dassault 10X could also form the basis for a new European regional jet.

AFAIK: there were two generations of A320CEO, the small wing fence (Winglets) and the sharklets (large wing fence). With the transition to the sharklets the demand shifted from A319/A320 to A320/A321. The NEO added weight for the engines and increased range, thus demand shifted further to the A321. Airbus also made improvements to the A321, the ACF (Airbus Cabin Flex), LR (Long Range, additional fuel container). Lastly Airbus is developing the A321XLR with larger center fuel tank, and redesigned wing surfaces.
AFAIK Airbus has made known that they are going to change the A320 and A321NEO so they all use the same single flap wing surfaces. Possibly Airbus has some A320 changes planned for implementation at that time.
I think the Wing for the Future if implemented will be used for the successor of the A320family. I've the impression Airbus is waiting for technology to mature before they launch something new. Their offering is good for this moment. If an airline doesn't like the A320, because it offers to little seats, they can order the A321ACF.
I see one problem for the A320NEO+, Airbus has to stretch or shrink the A320/A321 with AKH container sizes, so with 60.4" (1.534m) increments. I don't think this works out.


In a previous table I included a A320Plus Capability (Ã321NEO shrink) and an optimzed A320Plus. While The A320Plus capability would offer impressive payload range, nobody seems to be waiting for a 5000NM+ range NB and it would hurt A321XLR sales. So the optimized A320plus focussed on efficiency and right sized for 200 passengers including decent 30-31 inch pitch, non shrunken lavatories and galleys for meals came remained.

An A320Plus would be big enough to fill grown market requirements + 2 AKH's, but small/ limited enough to not hurt A321 sales. The bigger XLR wing/ single slotted flap seems a good idea, but not the expanded fuel capacity/ OEW increases of the XLR's. If 1000-1500 A320NEO's slots get upgraded to Plus, it strengthens revenue per slot while fighting off competitors.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:13 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:
Airbus has a healthy backlog of the A320. A 220-500 would compete with the 320. It’s been suggested to LNA that Airbus will launch the -500 when orders for the A320 largely dry up and the backlog is reduced. Scherer didn’t directly address these speculative points. But he did say the 220 program needs to achieve profitability first.

“When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.


https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/16/air-l ... ent-425041


Well, that should put to rest any notion the A225 is a dream. It is coming. BBD designed a winner
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:22 pm

frigatebird wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:
Airbus has a healthy backlog of the A320. A 220-500 would compete with the 320. It’s been suggested to LNA that Airbus will launch the -500 when orders for the A320 largely dry up and the backlog is reduced. Scherer didn’t directly address these speculative points. But he did say the 220 program needs to achieve profitability first.

“When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.

OK not before 2025 then, I assume.

Depends so much on how they calculate profitability, and in turn how much they do or do not want to invest more in the product.

They are only slowly increasing production rate due to covid setbacks ( even AC cut orders ) and increasing investment ( new pre-FAL) as they work through some of the early orders whose pricing was set by a very desperate BBD. All kind of accounting and business practices can be used to make the program look more or less profitable depending on what target they want to hit, IMO.

Executives have been saying "mid decade" / 2025 for a while now, this statement doesn't change that in any material way.

Meantime, of course it pays to build up as much market anticipation as they can, without making an actual commitment.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:

OK not before 2025 then, I assume.

Depends so much on how they calculate profitability, and in turn how much they do or do not want to invest more in the product.

They are only slowly increasing production rate due to covid setbacks ( even AC cut orders ) and increasing investment ( new pre-FAL) as they work through some of the early orders whose pricing was set by a very desperate BBD. All kind of accounting and business practices can be used to make the program look more or less profitable depending on what target they want to hit, IMO.

Executives have been saying "mid decade" / 2025 for a while now, this statement doesn't change that in any material way.

Meantime, of course it pays to build up as much market anticipation as they can, without making an actual commitment.


While I agree it is not big statement or change in direction, but it feels like a change of tune as they are much more vocal about it...
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:46 pm

TC957 wrote:
Is that such a bad thing if an A220-500 sells instead of an A320 ? Could help release some of the 320/321 product slots which are full till deep into 2025 now, thus enabling Airbus to go after more sales of 321's if slots prior to 2025 come up by airlines switching orders.


That gets to a contribution margin analysis. What makes more profit?

1. Sale of an A320neo, or

2. Sale of an A220 (at a significant loss today) plus sale of an A321neo

If there's enough info in public today to answer that question please point us to it.

Directionally, we see them saying they will again look at the A220-500 when the A220 line becomes profitable. That suggests the more profitable mix today is not A220+A321. As Revelation notes, that's no commitment to engineer, offer for sale, tool, or certify an A220-500.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:01 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:

That gets to a contribution margin analysis. What makes more profit?

1. Sale of an A320neo, or


The A320NEO backlog is shrinking and the profit of an A320NEO also has to be weighed against an A321NEO/ LR/ XLR slot that is blocked, and the profit potential of that one.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:31 am

A321 make lots more money than the 320 using the same crews, same gates, same slots, same routes, etc.

Thats why some airlines are bypassing the A320 for A321.

Still the order book is what, 3800 320Ns and another 3,500 A321Ns. 7000+ jets? All with the same type rating.

220 still needs a lot of work.

I have never seen a reasonable reason presented here for why a 220 should be created to replace the 320 in the lineup.
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
Is that such a bad thing if an A220-500 sells instead of an A320 ? Could help release some of the 320/321 product slots which are full till deep into 2025 now, thus enabling Airbus to go after more sales of 321's if slots prior to 2025 come up by airlines switching orders.


That gets to a contribution margin analysis. What makes more profit?

1. Sale of an A320neo, or

2. Sale of an A220 (at a significant loss today) plus sale of an A321neo

If there's enough info in public today to answer that question please point us to it.

Directionally, we see them saying they will again look at the A220-500 when the A220 line becomes profitable. That suggests the more profitable mix today is not A220+A321. As Revelation notes, that's no commitment to engineer, offer for sale, tool, or certify an A220-500.


Think of it this way. If Airbus were to offer the 225, that makes every 220 slot and every 320NEO slot more valuable. They shift customers who need a 170 seater to the 220 line and sell substantially more 321Ns. The added capacity also helps them take business from Boeing, further strengthening their competitive advantage.
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:12 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:
Airbus has a healthy backlog of the A320. A 220-500 would compete with the 320. It’s been suggested to LNA that Airbus will launch the -500 when orders for the A320 largely dry up and the backlog is reduced. Scherer didn’t directly address these speculative points. But he did say the 220 program needs to achieve profitability first.

“When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.


https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/16/air-l ... ent-425041


I have posted some of this before, but with respect to the A320NEO...
The A320NEO order book peaked at 4,181 aircraft in December 2018. At end October just gone that number was 3,807.
So net orders for the type have reduced by just short of 400 in the last 3 years.
Pretty much sounds like "drying up" to me ..

In the same timeframe, deliveries have gone from 513 to 1,347.
Which means the backlog has gone from 3,668 to 2,460 in the last 3 years - a reduction of 1,200 frames

Contrast this to the A321NEO

December 2018 - orders 2,310, deliveries 122, backlog 2,188
October 2021 - orders 3,679, deliveries 617, backlog 3,062
DAS 2021 will have added another 338 x A321NEO's to the order book, taking it over 4,000.
It's clear where the NEO trajectory is going.

The question is "at what point do Airbus declare on the A320NEO and thus clear one of the obstacles for an A220-500"
It won't be soon, as there are still 2,400 A320NEO in backlog, but I can see it happening

Rgds
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Nov 22, 2021 5:02 pm

astuteman wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:
Airbus has a healthy backlog of the A320. A 220-500 would compete with the 320. It’s been suggested to LNA that Airbus will launch the -500 when orders for the A320 largely dry up and the backlog is reduced. Scherer didn’t directly address these speculative points. But he did say the 220 program needs to achieve profitability first.

“When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.


https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/16/air-l ... ent-425041


I have posted some of this before, but with respect to the A320NEO...
The A320NEO order book peaked at 4,181 aircraft in December 2018. At end October just gone that number was 3,807.
So net orders for the type have reduced by just short of 400 in the last 3 years.
Pretty much sounds like "drying up" to me ..

In the same timeframe, deliveries have gone from 513 to 1,347.
Which means the backlog has gone from 3,668 to 2,460 in the last 3 years - a reduction of 1,200 frames

Contrast this to the A321NEO

December 2018 - orders 2,310, deliveries 122, backlog 2,188
October 2021 - orders 3,679, deliveries 617, backlog 3,062
DAS 2021 will have added another 338 x A321NEO's to the order book, taking it over 4,000.
It's clear where the NEO trajectory is going.

The question is "at what point do Airbus declare on the A320NEO and thus clear one of the obstacles for an A220-500"
It won't be soon, as there are still 2,400 A320NEO in backlog, but I can see it happening

Rgds


If that rate of backlog decline holds up for the 320N, Airbus should need the 225 to enter service in 2025-2027 timeframe.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Nov 22, 2021 5:56 pm

I think that if the 737-8 backlog/ deliveries hadn't become such a mess 2018-2021 and Covid-19 hadn't frozen the market, Airbus might have restructered its NB portfolio already.

Between the efficient and succesfull A220-300 and A321 is the bulk of the market. All competitors are just there, including MAx, MC-21 and Comac 919. Something really right sized and lean should be in the heart of it. Apparently the A320NEO is not that aircraft anymore. The market requirements changed.

Introducing the A220-500 or stretching the A320NEO 3-4 rows would better address the (huge) market of replacing aging A320CEO and 737-800s.

Airlines seem to be skipping "the benchmark" A320NEO now, while the adopted nephew from Canada had "the network builder" A319 for lunch :wideeyed:
Image
https://asfaarbyairbus.com/asfaar/october-2018/a220/
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Nov 22, 2021 6:06 pm

This is going to be a controversial opinion. But I think the 321 isn't right sized either. It's too big for all Y Euro seating. It's too small for thin long haul. It does well, largely because there aren't alternatives in this class. But I don't think airlines would complain if Airbus replaced the 320 and 321 with 200 Y seater aircraft and the 321 LR/XLR with a larger aircraft than carries closer to 180 pax in a mixed config with lie-flat J.
 
XT6Wagon
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:00 pm

The 321neo beats the 320neo in that it's barely more expensive to fly. This means you can a abuse it for a 320 route just fine. You will earn back some of the operating cost difference at peak load times where the 320 lacks the seats
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:58 pm

TObound wrote:
This is going to be a controversial opinion. But I think the 321 isn't right sized either. It's too big for all Y Euro seating. It's too small for thin long haul. It does well, largely because there aren't alternatives in this class. But I don't think airlines would complain if Airbus replaced the 320 and 321 with 200 Y seater aircraft and the 321 LR/XLR with a larger aircraft than carries closer to 180 pax in a mixed config with lie-flat J.


Not controversial at all. I and many expected Airbus to go for a lean 200 seater for a long time. Pre Covid-19 Airbus was studying it.

Image
LeehamNews
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:36 pm

I did not understand the call for "320 Plus" until I saw the graphics posted by keesje & mfranjic. Airbus product offerings created a huge cap and Boeing filled that gap. My question is did Airbus' 320/321 operators bring this up? I could only imagine when Airbus was shopping the NEO, that this would have surely been brought up to Airbus.

keesje wrote:
Not controversial at all. I and many expected Airbus to go for a lean 200 seater for a long time. Pre Covid-19 Airbus was studying it.


All Y 200 seats I'm assuming ? I'm curious how much stretching the 320 would cost Airbus.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:12 am

INFINITI329 wrote:
I did not understand the call for "320 Plus" until I saw the graphics posted by keesje & mfranjic. Airbus product offerings created a huge cap and Boeing filled that gap. My question is did Airbus' 320/321 operators bring this up? I could only imagine when Airbus was shopping the NEO, that this would have surely been brought up to Airbus.

keesje wrote:
Not controversial at all. I and many expected Airbus to go for a lean 200 seater for a long time. Pre Covid-19 Airbus was studying it.


All Y 200 seats I'm assuming ? I'm curious how much stretching the 320 would cost Airbus.


For the A220-500 specification estimations I choose a simple stretch (Column F) using the same MTOW (row 1) as the A220-300.

Earlier on I looked at a A321NEO simple stretch, but a.net members advised it would be overspecified and probably hurt A321 sales.

Looking in more detail the A320NEO seems pretty optimized for it's MTOW, so a "simple stretch" would greatly reduce pay-load range.

To make an optimized A320 stretch would probably cost Airbus more than a simpl e stretch/ shrink. E3-4B, 4 years?

Image

In a estimation earlier in this topic I settled for an optimize A320Plus (Column L), offering similar range to A320NEO (row 10) and reasonable (30-31inch pitch) full galley cabin.

Offering optimal options for 200 seats / 5ca short and medium flights, while still being significantly lighter and leaner than the more capable A321 family.

Offering the A321NEO xlr single slotted flaps wing might be an option, because Airbus says it's better, cheaper and lighter than the A321 double slotted flap wing.

It seems a balancing act though, between capability and protecting A321NEO sales.
 
airbazar
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:28 pm

Everyone seems to be focused on frame size and weight but the biggest issue I see with the A220 family is its lack of commonality with the A320 family. Perhaps Airbus should consider putting its next efforts on a cockpit redesign for the A22X so it can share the same type rate with the A32X. Then they can eliminate the A320.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:43 pm

keesje wrote:
scbriml wrote:
2175301 wrote:
I'm still trying to figure out how Airbus is being pushed to develop the A220-500 at this time.


They're not, except by some posters in this thread who can then push their pet ideas.


JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

“When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.


No ideas, insight :checkeredflag:

Image
keesje

It will be interesting to see how Airbus will react. With ongoing upgrades of A320NEO to A321NEO's and pressure to launch the A220-500, still the A320NEO won't disappear anytime soon from the Airbus portfolio. There's still many in the backlog, top ups will continue, but the A319NEO seems stillborn.

There is a big market place with many types in between a lean A220-500 (column F) and the big, 100t, do it all A321NEO Column Q).

Image


Your chart contains exactly the metric I was looking for to explain this. OEW/seat. Here, we can see that 737-8, A321neo and A220-500 are all at the frontier of 0.24 tons per seat OEW (with good capability). The A320neo is not on this frontier. This is a hint that it is not structurally so competitive. It also explains the success of 737-8, A321neo and demand for A220-500.
 
FLYBY72
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:51 pm

airbazar wrote:
Everyone seems to be focused on frame size and weight but the biggest issue I see with the A220 family is its lack of commonality with the A320 family. Perhaps Airbus should consider putting its next efforts on a cockpit redesign for the A22X so it can share the same type rate with the A32X. Then they can eliminate the A320.


Because it would be cheaper and easier to design a new airplane than do what you are suggesting.
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:00 pm

airbazar wrote:
Everyone seems to be focused on frame size and weight but the biggest issue I see with the A220 family is its lack of commonality with the A320 family. Perhaps Airbus should consider putting its next efforts on a cockpit redesign for the A22X so it can share the same type rate with the A32X. Then they can eliminate the A320.


Given the orders the 220 family and 320NEO family are racking up, this doesn't seem to be a huge issue for Airbus customers.

It's also entirely possible that airlines don't want a common type rating that would drive up pay demands from aircrew. All they need is an easy transition.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:51 pm

keesje wrote:
Looking in more detail the A320NEO seems pretty optimized for it's MTOW, so a "simple stretch" would greatly reduce pay-load range.


Your suggested A320 plus is not a small stretch. I would think a much more modest, simple stretch, about three frames, would be better. By only stretching the A320 by three frames we increase the seat capacity for a LCC from 186 to 198 (two rows). It is important that the stretch doesn't exceed 200 seats for operators like Lufthansa (today 180 seats in the A320neo) and the most common LCC configuration with 186 seats (very few are at more than 186 seats).

By stretching the A320 with only two rows, all operators will be within the 200 seat limit, and there won't be any significant reduction in A320 range and no need for MTOW increase. A two row stretch represents 7% increased seating capacity for an LCC. More for legacy carriers.

Two extra rows of economy seats are significant. Just look at the difference between 737-9 and 737-10. The difference is only two rows with LCC seats.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:36 pm

TObound wrote:
airbazar wrote:
...Airbus should consider putting its next efforts on a cockpit redesign for the A22X so it can share the same type rate with the A32X. Then they can eliminate the A320.
Given the orders the 220 family and 320NEO family are racking up, this doesn't seem to be a huge issue...

That also defeat somewhat the notion that the A220 canibalizes potential sales of other Airbus's NB products.

Also, if an airline decided to add a completely new type (A220), it means they could have chosen instead a different new type as well (ie the Max...). Better sell them an A220 - than losing a sale to Boeing.

By totally controling A220 sale prices (and knowing that client needs), Airbus ensures it will never canibalize a potential more profitable A319N/320N sale.

Then, you add the balancing act of possibly freeing slots for more profitable A321N production.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:45 pm

reidar76 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Looking in more detail the A320NEO seems pretty optimized for it's MTOW, so a "simple stretch" would greatly reduce pay-load range.


Your suggested A320 plus is not a small stretch. I would think a much more modest, simple stretch, about three frames, would be better. By only stretching the A320 by three frames we increase the seat capacity for a LCC from 186 to 198 (two rows). It is important that the stretch doesn't exceed 200 seats for operators like Lufthansa (today 180 seats in the A320neo) and the most common LCC configuration with 186 seats (very few are at more than 186 seats).

By stretching the A320 with only two rows, all operators will be within the 200 seat limit, and there won't be any significant reduction in A320 range and no need for MTOW increase. A two row stretch represents 7% increased seating capacity for an LCC. More for legacy carriers.

Two extra rows of economy seats are significant. Just look at the difference between 737-9 and 737-10. The difference is only two rows with LCC seats.


186 Seats on an A320 means removing toilets, galleys. 180 is already very tight. So I assumed a 3 row stretch on top of a A320 including space for galley (Leisure, Legacy, Longer Flights) also because it adds two AKH /ACT positions and add 1 row on top of a 737-8. And still 4 rows and a lot of payload-range below an A321.

But it's a close balance indeed.. if you take the A321 wing, bump up MTOW a bit and install an ACT, it might already take away A321 sales..
 
airbazar
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:53 pm

TObound wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Everyone seems to be focused on frame size and weight but the biggest issue I see with the A220 family is its lack of commonality with the A320 family. Perhaps Airbus should consider putting its next efforts on a cockpit redesign for the A22X so it can share the same type rate with the A32X. Then they can eliminate the A320.


Given the orders the 220 family and 320NEO family are racking up, this doesn't seem to be a huge issue for Airbus customers.

It's also entirely possible that airlines don't want a common type rating that would drive up pay demands from aircrew. All they need is an easy transition.


What are you talking about? A grand total of 12 A220's were sold in 2021.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:08 pm

airbazar wrote:
TObound wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Everyone seems to be focused on frame size and weight but the biggest issue I see with the A220 family is its lack of commonality with the A320 family. Perhaps Airbus should consider putting its next efforts on a cockpit redesign for the A22X so it can share the same type rate with the A32X. Then they can eliminate the A320.


Given the orders the 220 family and 320NEO family are racking up, this doesn't seem to be a huge issue for Airbus customers.

It's also entirely possible that airlines don't want a common type rating that would drive up pay demands from aircrew. All they need is an easy transition.


What are you talking about? A grand total of 12 A220's were sold in 2021.

Actually, 21 were sold this year (20 from Breeze, 1 undisclosed); with 8 cancellations, that's 13 net orders.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:56 am

Air Baltic is expressing interest in a stretched A220:

"airBaltic sets its sights on Airbus A220-500 variant"

https://www.aerotime.aero/29594-airbalt ... s-a220-500
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:52 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Air Baltic is expressing interest in a stretched A220:

"airBaltic sets its sights on Airbus A220-500 variant"

https://www.aerotime.aero/29594-airbalt ... s-a220-500


There isn't a carrier that doesn't want the 225.....

Getting Airbus to move on it is another matter.
 
yyztpa2
Posts: 274
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:30 pm

Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:05 pm

TObound wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Air Baltic is expressing interest in a stretched A220:

"airBaltic sets its sights on Airbus A220-500 variant"

https://www.aerotime.aero/29594-airbalt ... s-a220-500


There isn't a carrier that doesn't want the 225.....

Getting Airbus to move on it is another matter.

'Airbus has already hinted about the possibility of producing a larger version of the Airbus A220, the A220-500 aircraft. Airbus’ chief commercial officer Christian Scherer has also confirmed to Airlineratings.com that the stretched A220 variant may eventually become the successor to the A320 family aircraft.

It’s not a question of if, but when a stretched A220 will become the successor of our narrowbody A320 family, these plans have existed since Bombardier started initial designs for the CSeries,” Scherer said. '
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:27 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:
Airbus has a healthy backlog of the A320. A 220-500 would compete with the 320. It’s been suggested to LNA that Airbus will launch the -500 when orders for the A320 largely dry up and the backlog is reduced. Scherer didn’t directly address these speculative points. But he did say the 220 program needs to achieve profitability first.

“When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.


https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/16/air-l ... ent-425041


Well, that should put to rest any notion the A225 is a dream. It is coming. BBD designed a winner


He is refusing to develop the -500 variant, at small variable cost (a profitable decision) until the A220 PROGRAM is profitable without the 500. Sorry, he is not saying he will develop the 500 anytime soon. He is being completely asinine
 
yyztpa2
Posts: 274
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:30 pm

Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:42 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:


https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/16/air-l ... ent-425041


Well, that should put to rest any notion the A225 is a dream. It is coming. BBD designed a winner


He is refusing to develop the -500 variant, at small variable cost (a profitable decision) until the A220 PROGRAM is profitable without the 500. Sorry, he is not saying he will develop the 500 anytime soon. He is being completely asinine

You are responding to a 2 week old quote in this thread whereas a quote in a news story published yesterday and posted just above seems to imply otherwise.
 
Kikko19
Posts: 781
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:45 pm

Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:19 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."

Bigger excerpt:


https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/16/air-l ... ent-425041


Well, that should put to rest any notion the A225 is a dream. It is coming. BBD designed a winner


He is refusing to develop the -500 variant, at small variable cost (a profitable decision) until the A220 PROGRAM is profitable without the 500. Sorry, he is not saying he will develop the 500 anytime soon. He is being completely asinine

With team B dead in the water no need for team A to throw more money for a22x yet. The capitalism works this way.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 5:49 pm

yyztpa2 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
He is refusing to develop the -500 variant, at small variable cost (a profitable decision) until the A220 PROGRAM is profitable without the 500. Sorry, he is not saying he will develop the 500 anytime soon. He is being completely asinine

You are responding to a 2 week old quote in this thread whereas a quote in a news story published yesterday and posted just above seems to imply otherwise.

The Leeham quote from Nov 16, 2021:

Airbus has a healthy backlog of the A320. A 220-500 would compete with the 320. It’s been suggested to LNA that Airbus will launch the -500 when orders for the A320 largely dry up and the backlog is reduced. Scherer didn’t directly address these speculative points. But he did say the 220 program needs to achieve profitability first.

When we see the program profitability performing as we anticipate it will, and we’re on trajectory to do that, then when we can no longer hold off market pressure because we are experiencing market pressure for the stretch of the 220, clearly,” he said.


The Aeronews quote from Dec 1, 2021:

Airbus’ chief commercial officer Christian Scherer has also confirmed to Airlineratings.com that the stretched A220 variant may eventually become the successor to the A320 family aircraft.

“It’s not a question of if, but when a stretched A220 will become the successor of our narrowbody A320 family, these plans have existed since Bombardier started initial designs for the CSeries,” Scherer said.

I don't see any contradiction. The first is a pre-condition for the second. The first is the shorter term goal which he suggests is likely to be achieved at some point in time, the second refers to plans that started during the BBD era and will only happen if the pre-condition is met.

He even makes the stretch dependent on reaching rate 14 in the Leeham post:

“Engineering resources are still very much focused on the cost reduction of the program, and on the ramp-up,” Scherer said. “Right now, we’re producing five airplanes a month. We want to go up to 14. There’s a lot of resource that needs to be deployed on that. Then we’ll most probably see the stretch.” Scherer said customers at the IATA AGM were asking Airbus to stretch the A220.

So we need to see profitability and rate 14/month as a pre-condition before we see a stretch.

While he says he sees the right trajectory for a stretch, the one thing he won't do is give a date, because such a date does not exist:

“I won’t venture a date. What I will say is that we’re running by now a very comprehensive business with several programs and new development on the freighter, constant, with continuous improvement on all of our programs. If I’m not giving you a date today, it’s not because it’s confidential or anything like that. It’s because there isn’t a date,” he said.

So we'll just have to wait and see when the pre-conditions get met.

The good news is the production rate targets of 6 by early 2022 and 14 by 2025 have been known for a while and should be easy to track.

The bad news is they don't break out profitability by program, so we'll just have to rely on the comments about being on the right trajectory. Other than that we have the Leeham suggestion of losing $400M a year at rate 5, and the quote above that there is a lot of resource being applied to meet rate 14, which presumably has a negative impact on profitability in the short term but positive in the long term.

Overall, despite all the parsing of statements, not much has changed, IMO. The goal of rate 14 has been around a long time. The feasibility of a stretch has been known since the early BBD days. The desirability of a stretch is increasing so it should eventually happen, presuming profitability targets are met.
 
T4thH
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:04 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:

Well, that should put to rest any notion the A225 is a dream. It is coming. BBD designed a winner


He is refusing to develop the -500 variant, at small variable cost (a profitable decision) until the A220 PROGRAM is profitable without the 500. Sorry, he is not saying he will develop the 500 anytime soon. He is being completely asinine

With team B dead in the water no need for team A to throw more money for a22x yet. The capitalism works this way.


And with your answer, you are clearly showing, that you will not be able to understand, that Airbus is a European company, I even call it Eropean project, and not an US company or Boeing. The cultural differences between US and Europe (and the most relvant countries, Germany, France, Spain, and all others (OK, with exception of UK)) are to big now and the differences have even got bigger in the last decades (fast growing since around 1990, it seems this was the breaking time point, when the culture of US and Europe started to move fast in different directions).

Please note, this is Airbus and not an US company or Boeing. So every time, you all start thinking with: "What would Boeing do"-> you have already failed. And the bad thing is, you will even not be willed to change your mind.

When someone want to have a vegan helicopter: yes of course, Airbus will build it for you. When Neeleman asks for an extended range version of the A220 (and he has already stated more than one year ago, Airbus has promised, to develope it for him), yes, we will see it. Someone has asked for ETOPS180, A220 has it. MTOW increase? Already available. They say, we will see the A220-500, when the production rate is up to 14 per year? OK, so we will see it around 2024 or 2025.

Boeing will promise you everything, when this will impede, that a customer will buy a product from someone else. How long Boeing has played the MOM card? LOL.

Airbus is not Boeing, start to think like an European or just stop discussing about a not US product.
 
Opus99
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:09 pm

T4thH wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

He is refusing to develop the -500 variant, at small variable cost (a profitable decision) until the A220 PROGRAM is profitable without the 500. Sorry, he is not saying he will develop the 500 anytime soon. He is being completely asinine

With team B dead in the water no need for team A to throw more money for a22x yet. The capitalism works this way.


And with your answer, you are clearly showing, that you will not be able to understand, that Airbus is a European company, I even call it Eropean project, and not an US company or Boeing. The cultural differences between US and Europe (and the most relvant countries, Germany, France, Spain, and all others (OK, with exception of UK)) are to big now and the differences have even got bigger in the last decades (fast growing since around 1990, it seems this was the breaking time point, when the culture of US and Europe started to move fast in different directions).

Please note, this is Airbus and not an US company or Boeing. So every time, you all start thinking with: "What would Boeing do"-> you have already failed. And the bad thing is, you will even not be willed to change your mind.

When someone want to have a vegan helicopter: yes of course, Airbus will build it for you. When Neeleman asks for an extended range version of the A220 (and he has already stated more than one year ago, Airbus has promised, to develope it for him), yes, we will see it. Someone has asked for ETOPS180, A220 has it. MTOW increase? Already available. They say, we will see the A220-500, when the production rate is up to 14 per year? OK, so we will see it around 2024 or 2025.

Boeing will promise you everything, when this will impede, that a customer will buy a product from someone else. How long Boeing has played the MOM card? LOL.

Airbus is not Boeing, start to think like an European or just stop discussing about a not US product.

Then they should’ve built the 380NEO by your logic. Yet here we are.

Yes there are cultural and technical differences between Boeing and airbus but they love money just as much as the next business.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:19 pm

T4thH wrote:
They say, we will see the A220-500, when the production rate is up to 14 per year? OK, so we will see it around 2024 or 2025.

I guess that is just your opinion, since I just quoted where Airbus CCO Scherer just said no date for a stretch exists.

I guess QR would disagree about your characterization of Airbus's responsiveness to customer requests.

I think you are overly generalizing about EU vs US approaches to business. A lot of US companies are bad, but some are not. A lot of EU companies are good, but not all. VW deliberately cheated on emissions just because they wanted to sell premium audio options and got caught red handed.

Opus99 wrote:
Then they should’ve built the 380NEO by your logic. Yet here we are.

:silly: :rotfl:
 
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Polot
Posts: 12674
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Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:22 pm

T4thH wrote:

When someone want to have a vegan helicopter: yes of course, Airbus will build it for you. When Neeleman asks for an extended range version of the A220 (and he has already stated more than one year ago, Airbus has promised, to develope it for him), yes, we will see it. Someone has asked for ETOPS180, A220 has it. MTOW increase? Already available. They say, we will see the A220-500, when the production rate is up to 14 per year? OK, so we will see it around 2024 or 2025.

This is different to Boeing how?


You are overstating the difference between the two companies/cultures.
 
Kikko19
Posts: 781
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:45 pm

Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:04 pm

Opus99 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
With team B dead in the water no need for team A to throw more money for a22x yet. The capitalism works this way.


And with your answer, you are clearly showing, that you will not be able to understand, that Airbus is a European company, I even call it Eropean project, and not an US company or Boeing. The cultural differences between US and Europe (and the most relvant countries, Germany, France, Spain, and all others (OK, with exception of UK)) are to big now and the differences have even got bigger in the last decades (fast growing since around 1990, it seems this was the breaking time point, when the culture of US and Europe started to move fast in different directions).

Please note, this is Airbus and not an US company or Boeing. So every time, you all start thinking with: "What would Boeing do"-> you have already failed. And the bad thing is, you will even not be willed to change your mind.

When someone want to have a vegan helicopter: yes of course, Airbus will build it for you. When Neeleman asks for an extended range version of the A220 (and he has already stated more than one year ago, Airbus has promised, to develope it for him), yes, we will see it. Someone has asked for ETOPS180, A220 has it. MTOW increase? Already available. They say, we will see the A220-500, when the production rate is up to 14 per year? OK, so we will see it around 2024 or 2025.

Boeing will promise you everything, when this will impede, that a customer will buy a product from someone else. How long Boeing has played the MOM card? LOL.

Airbus is not Boeing, start to think like an European or just stop discussing about a not US product.

Then they should’ve built the 380NEO by your logic. Yet here we are.

Yes there are cultural and technical differences between Boeing and airbus but they love money just as much as the next business.
i believe innovation is pushed when the margins erode faster änd would become losses without R&D investment. Why would team A build now the 225 if it would cannibalize own profits?? They are not crazy there and will still milk the cow and probably develop that plane but no hurry. Airlines can cry as much as they want but without a competitive product from others they would get nothing.

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