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Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:52 pm

Welcome to Indian Aviation Thread for Q4 2021. Please continue your discussion regarding news and updates here.

Link to previous thread >>> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1462293&hilit=q3
 
rjbesikof
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:37 pm

AA launches JFK-DEL 10/31 on a 77W
 
VTORD
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:00 pm

avier wrote:
First come up with some random unfounded theories (govt not happy w/ Tata) , then add some more masala to your own theories (they working on renegotiating terms). Then deflect by talking of another unrelated airline in this sale process (spicejet), despite knowing well their owner was just a prop in the sale process and wasn't getting AI anyways, and neither govt had any intention of giving him either; so no point talking on the history of that other airline.

Just wait patiently for any official announcement till the coming week, unless cooking up stories and then deflecting from topic is your forte.



pune wrote:
Piyush Goyal is a minister in the Govt. and in fact has been one of the most important ministers for the present dispensation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piyush_Goyal

Even in the recent re-shuffle where new ministers were sworn in because they didn't ''perform' he is one of the minority of people whose job was safe. One can count on number of fingers of one hand the people whose job is safe. And to say he isn't important or whatever. And if spicejet was a dummy, then why such dummy applications were taken in, just to show some sort of 'transparency' or something. I can understand Indigo not being invited as they already have more than 60% market share domestically and if they were to even have Air India, they would be no competition at all.


Yes, the point would be to put on a "dog and pony" show by propping Ajay Singh (in his personal capacity, not SG - that distinction needs to be made) as a "competing bid". Notice how Air India ghar waapsi campaign has already started with Ratan Tata - Air India memes on FB and WA.

Secondly, what Piyush Goyal or for that matter any other minister in this government says has no intrinsic weight. What matters is what the main guy says. This government has shown a remarkable ability to compartmentalize it's social messaging from it's business policy. That's why it won't matter that Piyush Goyal says that the govt., "is not happy with Tatas". As long as they can sell AI to the Tatas and claim a disinvestment victory, sab changaa si!

This compartmentalization is also what enables the govt., to maintain excellent relations with the likes of UAE and Saudi Arabia and that is precisely why the whole UAE flying rights & seat allotments "issue" is a non-starter. Both parties have something the other wants and it will work out just fine.
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:32 pm

The sad part is and was even in his 'personal capacity' the bid was not by his money but by using SBI .

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ec ... 419996.ece

And how remarkable it is, that in spite of the huge loans that SG has, SBI was able to open its coffers to Ajay Singh. And yet people don't understand why our PSB's have such losses. :(
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:55 pm

Was looking at a thread on the bird app about my own city, airport and public transport. Both of which are down in dumps. For anybody who has been to India knows the builder-politician nexus. Few years back, there was a fantasy which was sold to people in my city by the name of Chakan Airport. Nothing materialized, but a lot of money was made by BJP builders by selling land and apartments at premium prices for that fantasy airport. Now the new rulers are making sounds about Purandar and have been for some time but on the ground, nothing seems to be moving. One of the few cities in the country that has 7 million people and does billions of dollars of export or used to before the pandemic hit and is also a big educational hub :(

Just few weeks back, it was all shut off for civilian traffic for 2 weeks because of runway expansion. There has been talk of a second runway but was shut down by the Air Force :(

I know I have ranted about Pune earlier as well, but what to do :(
 
avier
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:34 pm

Spicejet has delayed the re-entry of its 737MAX into service, which was due today on 5th Oct, with new start dates likely from 8th Oct.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 754875.cms

Meanwhile, GoAir now "GoFirst", had their first plane (VT-WJQ) sporting the new brand identity:

Image
PC: IG planepictures_india
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:05 pm

Saw this reported on BBC sometime back -

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-58798868?

Air India: Plane stuck under bridge in viral video

Apparently, it has been stuck since 2nd October 2021.

On YT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQy_B1zMWRs
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:27 am

Somebody shared the actual footage of it crashing onto the bridge. And apparently this was Airbus which has got tangled in -

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... dia/elwxz3
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:59 am

pune wrote:

Wonder how half the plane got through before getting stuck
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:52 am

DTWLAX wrote:
pune wrote:

Wonder how half the plane got through before getting stuck

Likely due to the angle of the trailer.
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:29 am

AirIndia wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
pune wrote:

Wonder how half the plane got through before getting stuck

Likely due to the angle of the trailer.


It probably was in some hangar at Delhi T2/T3 whatever. Doesn't make sense to tow it from place to place. Sadly, unlike other places we don't have a museum. We can't even think about it. While it is speculation, it is possible that the new owners may be thinking of having some sort of restaurant or something. There have been many similar examples in the past in many countries where a plane had a second-life. In this case, loss to the new owners unless they hired a contractor (which normally is the practice) to get it from place A to B. Sadly, how much time it will take to disentangle it, nobody knows. The easiest way would be to carve it up but will the owners be amenable to that ????
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:40 pm

pune wrote:
Was looking at a thread on the bird app about my own city, airport and public transport. Both of which are down in dumps. For anybody who has been to India knows the builder-politician nexus. Few years back, there was a fantasy which was sold to people in my city by the name of Chakan Airport. Nothing materialized, but a lot of money was made by BJP builders by selling land and apartments at premium prices for that fantasy airport. Now the new rulers are making sounds about Purandar and have been for some time but on the ground, nothing seems to be moving. One of the few cities in the country that has 7 million people and does billions of dollars of export or used to before the pandemic hit and is also a big educational hub :(

Just few weeks back, it was all shut off for civilian traffic for 2 weeks because of runway expansion. There has been talk of a second runway but was shut down by the Air Force :(

I know I have ranted about Pune earlier as well, but what to do :(


Sorry my info. was wrong. It is apparently going to happen in the near future October 16 - October 29. But sadly, it seems non of the airlines whether it is Indigo, Spicejet or Air India have taken the pains to inform customers of what they should do. And this is when on brink of Diwali :(

Woke up in the evening to find a plethora of threads on the topic on the bird app. hence came to know the correct dates, sorry for the above wrong info. but other things which I have shared stand by them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Pune_Airport
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:34 am

pune wrote:
AirIndia wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
Wonder how half the plane got through before getting stuck

Likely due to the angle of the trailer.


It probably was in some hangar at Delhi T2/T3 whatever. Doesn't make sense to tow it from place to place. Sadly, unlike other places we don't have a museum. We can't even think about it. While it is speculation, it is possible that the new owners may be thinking of having some sort of restaurant or something. There have been many similar examples in the past in many countries where a plane had a second-life. In this case, loss to the new owners unless they hired a contractor (which normally is the practice) to get it from place A to B. Sadly, how much time it will take to disentangle it, nobody knows. The easiest way would be to carve it up but will the owners be amenable to that ????

I agree with you about the lack of museums to preserve historical assets esp on the commercial av side in India or even in the region. I am sad about this airframe as it is one of the first few 320s delivered to then IC.

This aircraft has been freed and is on its way to become a restaurant called Runway 1. I have seen one other restaurant that is setup on the Highway between Delhi and Ambala.
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:06 am

AirIndia wrote:
pune wrote:
AirIndia wrote:
Likely due to the angle of the trailer.


It probably was in some hangar at Delhi T2/T3 whatever. Doesn't make sense to tow it from place to place. Sadly, unlike other places we don't have a museum. We can't even think about it. While it is speculation, it is possible that the new owners may be thinking of having some sort of restaurant or something. There have been many similar examples in the past in many countries where a plane had a second-life. In this case, loss to the new owners unless they hired a contractor (which normally is the practice) to get it from place A to B. Sadly, how much time it will take to disentangle it, nobody knows. The easiest way would be to carve it up but will the owners be amenable to that ????

I agree with you about the lack of museums to preserve historical assets esp on the commercial av side in India or even in the region. I am sad about this airframe as it is one of the first few 320s delivered to then IC.

This aircraft has been freed and is on its way to become a restaurant called Runway 1. I have seen one other restaurant that is setup on the Highway between Delhi and Ambala.


Had the same idea. I do remember reading about another one which had a small 4-6 seater that they bought and put in front of the house. And people would come and go for imaginary flights. If you can't have/afford the real thing, then this is probably the next best thing. The couple did make some money and also bought smiles to a lot of people's faces. I didn't know about the restaurant between Delhi and Ambala would be appreciable, thank you :)
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:10 am

 
atal17
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:29 am

Air Canada is increasing Delhi-Toronto to 10 weekly from 15 October in response to extremely high demand for flights to Canada.

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 41412?s=20
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:07 am

AirIndia wrote:
pune wrote:
AirIndia wrote:
Likely due to the angle of the trailer.


It probably was in some hangar at Delhi T2/T3 whatever. Doesn't make sense to tow it from place to place. Sadly, unlike other places we don't have a museum. We can't even think about it. While it is speculation, it is possible that the new owners may be thinking of having some sort of restaurant or something. There have been many similar examples in the past in many countries where a plane had a second-life. In this case, loss to the new owners unless they hired a contractor (which normally is the practice) to get it from place A to B. Sadly, how much time it will take to disentangle it, nobody knows. The easiest way would be to carve it up but will the owners be amenable to that ????

I agree with you about the lack of museums to preserve historical assets esp on the commercial av side in India or even in the region. I am sad about this airframe as it is one of the first few 320s delivered to then IC.

This aircraft has been freed and is on its way to become a restaurant called Runway 1. I have seen one other restaurant that is setup on the Highway between Delhi and Ambala.

Did Runway 1 restaurant acquired another A320 for its business? They currently has one already VT-EPO MSN080. Compared to other countries, India has its fair share of preserved airframes. Indoneisa should top the list as they literally have a lot of abandoned/ preserved 737 all over their country.

There are few other A320ceo being preserved:
1. VT-EPB MSN045 (the subject matter)
2. VT-EPD MSN047 Preserved Punjab, India 2015 as Verka Hawai Adda restaurant
3. VT-ESG MSN451 Preserved Behror, India 2017 in a yard with VT-EPL MSN047

B737-2A8(A)
1. VT-EGF Preserved Singhania University, Rajasthan, India 2015 in full India Post - Air India Cargo livery
2. VT-EGG Preserved Khatushyamji, Rajasthan, India Dec 2019 as a restaurant
3. VT-EGJ Preserved Ahmedabad, India 2017 at the Western India Institute of Aeronautics as an instructional airframe
4. VT-EHH Preserved Gudavalli, Andhra Pradesh, India Jul 2019 as a restaurant

A310-304
1. VT-EJK Adventure Island, Rohini, New Delhi, as Runway 1 Restaurant
 
hohd
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:07 pm

atal17 wrote:
Air Canada is increasing Delhi-Toronto to 10 weekly from 15 October in response to extremely high demand for flights to Canada.

https://twitter.com/theaeronetwork/stat ... 41412?s=20



This is the pent up demand until recently all travelers to Canada had to go through other countries with a stopover for RTPCR test, once most of them go back, traffic will normalize.

AI is also flying daily on this route and to Vancouver (not daily) as well.
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:10 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
AirIndia wrote:
pune wrote:

It probably was in some hangar at Delhi T2/T3 whatever. Doesn't make sense to tow it from place to place. Sadly, unlike other places we don't have a museum. We can't even think about it. While it is speculation, it is possible that the new owners may be thinking of having some sort of restaurant or something. There have been many similar examples in the past in many countries where a plane had a second-life. In this case, loss to the new owners unless they hired a contractor (which normally is the practice) to get it from place A to B. Sadly, how much time it will take to disentangle it, nobody knows. The easiest way would be to carve it up but will the owners be amenable to that ????

I agree with you about the lack of museums to preserve historical assets esp on the commercial av side in India or even in the region. I am sad about this airframe as it is one of the first few 320s delivered to then IC.

This aircraft has been freed and is on its way to become a restaurant called Runway 1. I have seen one other restaurant that is setup on the Highway between Delhi and Ambala.

Did Runway 1 restaurant acquired another A320 for its business? They currently has one already VT-EPO MSN080. Compared to other countries, India has its fair share of preserved airframes. Indoneisa should top the list as they literally have a lot of abandoned/ preserved 737 all over their country.

There are few other A320ceo being preserved:
1. VT-EPB MSN045 (the subject matter)
2. VT-EPD MSN047 Preserved Punjab, India 2015 as Verka Hawai Adda restaurant
3. VT-ESG MSN451 Preserved Behror, India 2017 in a yard with VT-EPL MSN047

B737-2A8(A)
1. VT-EGF Preserved Singhania University, Rajasthan, India 2015 in full India Post - Air India Cargo livery
2. VT-EGG Preserved Khatushyamji, Rajasthan, India Dec 2019 as a restaurant
3. VT-EGJ Preserved Ahmedabad, India 2017 at the Western India Institute of Aeronautics as an instructional airframe
4. VT-EHH Preserved Gudavalli, Andhra Pradesh, India Jul 2019 as a restaurant

A310-304
1. VT-EJK Adventure Island, Rohini, New Delhi, as Runway 1 Restaurant


I meant something on the lines of https://www.iziko.org.za/museums/south-african-museum . I was fortunate few years ago to be able to visit South Africa and see that museum. They had an entire floor dedicated to Airplanes, including a mockup of the plane flown by Amelia Earhart and other such. They even had video and animation about her as well theories about her disappearance, one of the historical mysteries, I couldn't help but wonder why we didn't have something like this. The scale of that museum was simply beyond me. I visited that museum 2-3 times and still wasn't able to see all the exhibits. Not that all the exhibits were about Aviation, but science. It is only after visiting South Africa I realized how big birds can be. And even though, people can be and are cruel as later I discovered at https://www.eagle-encounters.co.za/ still was unbelievable to see the sizes the birds reached. In front of some birds, humans are and were dwarf. So you could very well imagine how it would have been millions of years ago. It just exploded my mind, seeing all the different exhibits.
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:14 pm

The only Indian museum I know which comes close and yet still very much afar in India is the Visvewaraya Industrial and Technological Museum, Bangalore or Bengaluru. Perhaps it's wrong to compare the two but couldn't help it, is this the best we could do for our children :( . In Goa there is a maritime museum, again so much promise but simply wasted away :(
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:48 am

pune wrote:
The only Indian museum I know which comes close and yet still very much afar in India is the Visvewaraya Industrial and Technological Museum, Bangalore or Bengaluru. Perhaps it's wrong to compare the two but couldn't help it, is this the best we could do for our children :( . In Goa there is a maritime museum, again so much promise but simply wasted away :(


Have you visited the HAL Museum in Bangalore? Military not civil, but still makes the cut.
 
atal17
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:02 am

TATA formally wins bid to take over Air India:

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/tat ... 021-10-08/
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:09 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
pune wrote:
The only Indian museum I know which comes close and yet still very much afar in India is the Visvewaraya Industrial and Technological Museum, Bangalore or Bengaluru. Perhaps it's wrong to compare the two but couldn't help it, is this the best we could do for our children :( . In Goa there is a maritime museum, again so much promise but simply wasted away :(


Have you visited the HAL Museum in Bangalore? Military not civil, but still makes the cut.


I did know about the HAL factory but didn't know about the museum, definitely something to visit the next time I am there , thank you :)
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:18 pm

atal17 wrote:
TATA formally wins bid to take over Air India:

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/tat ... 021-10-08/


They would be in a world of pain for a long long time unless they they do massive capital infusion but then that again would have to be from Banks and NBFC's :(

https://www.airfleets.net/ageflotte/Air%20India.htm

To understand,, they got the whole deal for enterprise value of INR 18k crore. They have agreed to shoulder another 15k crore as debt, when to be paid back dunno.

This still leaves GOI with 46k crore of debt that needs to be paid by them.

Now how they will shed staff (VRS) and buy new planes is gonna be a headache for them.

And this too in the pandemic where Banks and NBFC's have been tightening their belts as corporate loans have a shocker to them. And all big names are there.

https://www.moneylife.in/article/why-is ... 65291.html
 
hohd
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:09 pm

Tatas know what they are getting into. It wont be easy especially reducing work force and cutting long term benefits. They won the bid with $2.4 billion but only 15% will be paid as cash rest to retire some of the debt which comes with the sale.
 
FligtReporter
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:05 am

Id literally love to fall in love with Air India again !! I mean Ive never had any major problem with them but with TATAS in I hope they change the interior seat covers and also control the delays also after a year or so the fat old mannerless uncles,aunties,naanis arr finally kicked out and replaced with folks who work at Vistara.
 
portola2727
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:21 pm

The greatest thing for me would be AI launching DEL-LAX. Seeing a flag carrier from home at my current home airport would make me so proud as an Indian Expatriate. Also, AI flying DEL-LAX would save me the hassle of connecting through a third country during the time of COVID. During the pandemic, I'd always make my way to fly from the US to India on the nonstops so I'd fly through SFO often. Having DEL-LAX cuts the connection at SFO.
 
portola2727
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:25 pm

Adding on, I hope the new TATA acquisition helps AI get the money it needs to expand in the US. The Indian Expat community here has grown tenfold and there are many underserved cities that would like a connection to Delhi. I remember in 2017, AI wanted to expand into LAX,DFW, and IAD. Only IAD was actually launched so hopefully the new acquisition gives AI the money it needs to launch LAX and DFW.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:06 pm

portola2727 wrote:
The greatest thing for me would be AI launching DEL-LAX. Seeing a flag carrier from home at my current home airport would make me so proud as an Indian Expatriate. Also, AI flying DEL-LAX would save me the hassle of connecting through a third country during the time of COVID. During the pandemic, I'd always make my way to fly from the US to India on the nonstops so I'd fly through SFO often. Having DEL-LAX cuts the connection at SFO.

AI is not going to fly direct to LAX anytime soon. They were scheduled to start DEL-LAX in 2017 but never did. If they could not get it done pre-covid, it is going to take a few years now after covid. I do not think it will happen before 2025.
 
portola2727
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:55 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
portola2727 wrote:
The greatest thing for me would be AI launching DEL-LAX. Seeing a flag carrier from home at my current home airport would make me so proud as an Indian Expatriate. Also, AI flying DEL-LAX would save me the hassle of connecting through a third country during the time of COVID. During the pandemic, I'd always make my way to fly from the US to India on the nonstops so I'd fly through SFO often. Having DEL-LAX cuts the connection at SFO.

AI is not going to fly direct to LAX anytime soon. They were scheduled to start DEL-LAX in 2017 but never did. If they could not get it done pre-covid, it is going to take a few years now after covid. I do not think it will happen before 2025.

Seeing AA flying JFK-DEL on a 77W makes it seem likely. There are a lot of Indians here who like to travel to India even in the pandemic.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:43 pm

portola2727 wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
portola2727 wrote:
The greatest thing for me would be AI launching DEL-LAX. Seeing a flag carrier from home at my current home airport would make me so proud as an Indian Expatriate. Also, AI flying DEL-LAX would save me the hassle of connecting through a third country during the time of COVID. During the pandemic, I'd always make my way to fly from the US to India on the nonstops so I'd fly through SFO often. Having DEL-LAX cuts the connection at SFO.

AI is not going to fly direct to LAX anytime soon. They were scheduled to start DEL-LAX in 2017 but never did. If they could not get it done pre-covid, it is going to take a few years now after covid. I do not think it will happen before 2025.

Seeing AA flying JFK-DEL on a 77W makes it seem likely. There are a lot of Indians here who like to travel to India even in the pandemic.

LA does not have a lot of Indians when compared to NYC. LA's Indian population is significantly less than NYC, Bay area, Chicago and Dallas.
Just because AA started JFK-DEL does not mean AI will start DEL-LAX.
AA's JFK-DEL will be getting feed at both ends through their new partnerships with B6 in the US and 6E in India. What feed is AI going to get at LAX?
 
portola2727
Posts: 84
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:44 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
portola2727 wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
AI is not going to fly direct to LAX anytime soon. They were scheduled to start DEL-LAX in 2017 but never did. If they could not get it done pre-covid, it is going to take a few years now after covid. I do not think it will happen before 2025.

Seeing AA flying JFK-DEL on a 77W makes it seem likely. There are a lot of Indians here who like to travel to India even in the pandemic.

LA does not have a lot of Indians when compared to NYC. LA's Indian population is significantly less than NYC, Bay area, Chicago and Dallas.
Just because AA started JFK-DEL does not mean AI will start DEL-LAX.
AA's JFK-DEL will be getting feed at both ends through their new partnerships with B6 in the US and 6E in India. What feed is AI going to get at LAX?

Look I'm not trying to argue with you. I'm just saying it would be great for AI to launch DEL-LAX or DEL-DFW due to an uptick of money that could be made due to the TATA takeover of AI. And besides everything, population isn't the only metric airlines take when they launch routes. India does have a significant tourism market so DEL-LAX could bring tourists into the market. Plus, even if LAX doesn't have the same connectivity that say SFO/EWR/IAD/ORD have going to India, the reverse could be a net positive. There are a lot of Indians who leave India to go to the US for studies/work/visits and AI could connect them from their cities at DEL onwards to LAX. Ideally this could be the case but I do not know the definite answer. LAX has been on AI's watch for a while now.
 
portola2727
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:58 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
portola2727 wrote:
The greatest thing for me would be AI launching DEL-LAX. Seeing a flag carrier from home at my current home airport would make me so proud as an Indian Expatriate. Also, AI flying DEL-LAX would save me the hassle of connecting through a third country during the time of COVID. During the pandemic, I'd always make my way to fly from the US to India on the nonstops so I'd fly through SFO often. Having DEL-LAX cuts the connection at SFO.

AI is not going to fly direct to LAX anytime soon. They were scheduled to start DEL-LAX in 2017 but never did. If they could not get it done pre-covid, it is going to take a few years now after covid. I do not think it will happen before 2025.

Part of the reason they couldn't was because they didn't have the frames required for the route. AI's long haul fleet was both the 77W and 77L. When demand was high, the 77W was used but in the lower months, the 77L was used. AI has a lot of 77Ws but the 77L is in short supply and the only plane that could theoretically make it to LAX was the 77L. To make DEL-LAX work in 2017, AI would have needed to use the 77W on DEL-SFO and considering how AI's 77W was on the heavier side of the aircraft, the plane could make it only when winds and weather conditions were just right for the plane. AI's routings in 2017 were mostly transpolar to SFO so only certain weather/route conditions worked. In 2021/2022 when AI hopefully gets UK's 787-9's, the 77L could be freed to do more long haul routes or have the 787-9 do the DEL-LAX routing as it has the theoretical range to do it without significant weight restrictions.
 
pune
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:53 pm

portola2727 wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
portola2727 wrote:
The greatest thing for me would be AI launching DEL-LAX. Seeing a flag carrier from home at my current home airport would make me so proud as an Indian Expatriate. Also, AI flying DEL-LAX would save me the hassle of connecting through a third country during the time of COVID. During the pandemic, I'd always make my way to fly from the US to India on the nonstops so I'd fly through SFO often. Having DEL-LAX cuts the connection at SFO.

AI is not going to fly direct to LAX anytime soon. They were scheduled to start DEL-LAX in 2017 but never did. If they could not get it done pre-covid, it is going to take a few years now after covid. I do not think it will happen before 2025.

Part of the reason they couldn't was because they didn't have the frames required for the route. AI's long haul fleet was both the 77W and 77L. When demand was high, the 77W was used but in the lower months, the 77L was used. AI has a lot of 77Ws but the 77L is in short supply and the only plane that could theoretically make it to LAX was the 77L. To make DEL-LAX work in 2017, AI would have needed to use the 77W on DEL-SFO and considering how AI's 77W was on the heavier side of the aircraft, the plane could make it only when winds and weather conditions were just right for the plane. AI's routings in 2017 were mostly transpolar to SFO so only certain weather/route conditions worked. In 2021/2022 when AI hopefully gets UK's 787-9's, the 77L could be freed to do more long haul routes or have the 787-9 do the DEL-LAX routing as it has the theoretical range to do it without significant weight restrictions.


Age of the aircraft would be an issue

https://www.airfleets.net/ageflotte/Air%20India.htm
 
VTORD
Posts: 786
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:35 pm

portola2727 wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
portola2727 wrote:
Seeing AA flying JFK-DEL on a 77W makes it seem likely. There are a lot of Indians here who like to travel to India even in the pandemic.

LA does not have a lot of Indians when compared to NYC. LA's Indian population is significantly less than NYC, Bay area, Chicago and Dallas.
Just because AA started JFK-DEL does not mean AI will start DEL-LAX.
AA's JFK-DEL will be getting feed at both ends through their new partnerships with B6 in the US and 6E in India. What feed is AI going to get at LAX?

Look I'm not trying to argue with you. I'm just saying it would be great for AI to launch DEL-LAX or DEL-DFW due to an uptick of money that could be made due to the TATA takeover of AI. And besides everything, population isn't the only metric airlines take when they launch routes. India does have a significant tourism market so DEL-LAX could bring tourists into the market. Plus, even if LAX doesn't have the same connectivity that say SFO/EWR/IAD/ORD have going to India, the reverse could be a net positive. There are a lot of Indians who leave India to go to the US for studies/work/visits and AI could connect them from their cities at DEL onwards to LAX. Ideally this could be the case but I do not know the definite answer. LAX has been on AI's watch for a while now.


My $0.02 on the LAX - DEL market: I do agree with @DTWLAX. One thing we need to account for is AA's SEA - BLR which is slated to begin shortly after DEL - JFK. I recall reading somewhere that the aircraft for that flight will originate in LAX (AFAIK PHX is not a 789 base for AA). That means AA which already probably has a good FF base in the SoCal area would be at an advantage. Plus UA already has a SFO-DEL and SFO-BLR and LAX is a UA hub so I am sure they are funneling people from there to their SFO flights. So overall the % of pax who may benefit significantly from a n/s flight to DEL might not be enough to justify a flight. Then you have the ME3 and TK thrown in for good measure.

IMHO AI might be better off looking at destinations east of the Mississippi. I feel ORD - BOM is something that is sorely missed plus I am sure it is only a matter of time before BLR gets a east coast n/s.
 
pune
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:49 am

Tatas are gonna raise 15k crore loans from PSB's, as I had predicted. Private gains, public lossess -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 915648.cms

In essence, nothing changed for either the customer of the PSB banks or the taxpayers. :(
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1300
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:34 am

DTWLAX wrote:
portola2727 wrote:
DTWLAX wrote:
AI is not going to fly direct to LAX anytime soon. They were scheduled to start DEL-LAX in 2017 but never did. If they could not get it done pre-covid, it is going to take a few years now after covid. I do not think it will happen before 2025.

Seeing AA flying JFK-DEL on a 77W makes it seem likely. There are a lot of Indians here who like to travel to India even in the pandemic.

LA does not have a lot of Indians when compared to NYC. LA's Indian population is significantly less than NYC, Bay area, Chicago and Dallas.
Just because AA started JFK-DEL does not mean AI will start DEL-LAX.
AA's JFK-DEL will be getting feed at both ends through their new partnerships with B6 in the US and 6E in India. What feed is AI going to get at LAX?


It is not the size of the indian pop in LA (which is significant - I think only NYC, SFO, CHI and DC are bigger). The issue in LA is that the Indian population has been stagnant for quite some time (LA used to be the second largest pop after NYC in the 80’s early 90’s). So while places like SFO and Dallas have seen the arrival of tons of immigrants from India in the last 10/20 years, LA has not (when defense industry died in LA, indian engineers stopped coming). LA’s demographics also represent the older immigrant groups - which makes it spread out over BOM/AMD/DEL. Add to that, LA isn’t really a hub (so unlikely a US airline will launch). AI could launch LAX-DEL but I think there a lot of other routes that should launch over LA.
 
freqflyer
Posts: 106
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:01 am

pune wrote:
Tatas are gonna raise 15k crore loans from PSB's, as I had predicted. Private gains, public lossess -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 915648.cms

In essence, nothing changed for either the customer of the PSB banks or the taxpayers. :(


How can things change for the customer even before the airline is handed over? How is a loan to be given to given to the new owners of Air India already be a loss to the public?
And the taxpayers will be saving 20 crore a day . Or do you already presume that Tatas will sink the airline as bad as the venal Govt babus and not repay the loans? Is Indigo debt-free?
 
pune
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:31 am

freqflyer wrote:
pune wrote:
Tatas are gonna raise 15k crore loans from PSB's, as I had predicted. Private gains, public lossess -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 915648.cms

In essence, nothing changed for either the customer of the PSB banks or the taxpayers. :(


How can things change for the customer even before the airline is handed over? How is a loan to be given to given to the new owners of Air India already be a loss to the public?
And the taxpayers will be saving 20 crore a day . Or do you already presume that Tatas will sink the airline as bad as the venal Govt babus and not repay the loans? Is Indigo debt-free?


I have already shared that their fleet is much more aged than the other ones. Another thing you are forgetting which I probably shared above, Tata's own brand Vistara has gone nowhere. The market in and out of India for the next few years will primarily be ULCC then why it went for a premium sort of branding. And, as we have seen, they are not the quickest horse in the market. For e.g. when Jet Routes were being sold/auctioned they were the last of the block while Indigo was first.

Indigo has done a lot of smart moves and that is the reason it has about 60% of the domestic market. So comparing between the two is nothing but foolishness. Due to covid, even they suffered but have shown, not just an appetite to take huge risks but also manage those risks. From Tatas, we haven't seen that till date. Remember the ill-conceived Jaguar takeover, they are still paying a price for it. But that is another industry altogether. In the last 10 years, 20+ airlines have gone bust. Many of them due to high taxes as well as no stable regulatory policy. Most of the people who are in regulatory role don't even know what the needs are :(
 
hohd
Posts: 1059
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 1:03 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:57 pm

pune wrote:
Tatas are gonna raise 15k crore loans from PSB's, as I had predicted. Private gains, public lossess -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 915648.cms

In essence, nothing changed for either the customer of the PSB banks or the taxpayers. :(


You are assuming that Tata's will not pay the loans at some point in the future, which means the airlines will likely falter. I dont think that is the mindset of Tatas who have a good reputation in other businesses. They also have personal investment at stake.
 
DIJKKIJK
Posts: 1907
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:44 pm

pune wrote:
Tatas are gonna raise 15k crore loans from PSB's, as I had predicted. Private gains, public lossess -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 915648.cms

In essence, nothing changed for either the customer of the PSB banks or the taxpayers. :(


It's the Tatas we are talking about, not some sundry one trick pony loser bania like Naresh Goyal or Vijay Mallya.

Just one of the Tata companies, TCS alone, has a market capitalisation of more than 200 billion USD. That's a hundred times what they have paid for AI.

The Tatas sure have done their homework on this one.
 
bostrv
Posts: 52
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:32 pm

If the TATAs can figure out from the way international travel in TCS is structured, and provide better service at the current price point of Indian IT travel, that alone could help AIs long haul ecomomics.
 
pune
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:06 am

As far what will happen will be known sooner or later. Neither you are going anywhere, nor me. So we shall know.
 
VTORD
Posts: 786
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:15 pm

DIJKKIJK wrote:

It's the Tatas we are talking about, not some sundry one trick pony loser bania like Naresh Goyal or Vijay Mallya.

Just one of the Tata companies, TCS alone, has a market capitalisation of more than 200 billion USD. That's a hundred times what they have paid for AI.

The Tatas sure have done their homework on this one.

No they are essentially a one pony stable. TCS's share of Tata's revenues is north of 90%. And keep in mind that the other 10% includes two airlines. Even within Tata Motors, the dependence on JLR for revenue is mind boggling (approx., 80%). So this "ghar wapasi" is essentially happening on the back of TCS (and may be Tata Steel to some extent).

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 047_1.html

https://www.businesstoday.in/auto/story ... 2021-07-26

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... s?from=mdr

To be clear I am not alleging any wrong doing, suggesting that Tatas will be dishonest about paying loans, opposing the divestment or even Tata getting the airline. I am objecting to the seemingly "we-found-the-silver-bullet" themed chorus that seems to have gripped the media and social media memeverse re: this deal.
 
pune
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:47 pm

To be on topic, there is also this -

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 593579.cms

Now try saying that all the above didn't have business sense or something and only the Tatas have. I am sure, even if we look at the U.S. we will see a similar pile-up or more.
 
DIJKKIJK
Posts: 1907
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2003 11:03 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:42 pm

VTORD wrote:
. I am objecting to the seemingly "we-found-the-silver-bullet" themed chorus that seems to have gripped the media and social media memeverse re: this deal.


What do you want then? That everyone paints one doomsday picture after another? We're getting enough of that.

A business group that is over a hundred years old and is known for its probity and business sense is making an investment that it can very well afford in the flag carrier of its country. It is ensuring thousands of jobs and saving millions for the taxpayers by taking a white elephant off their shoulders. Only the worst cynic on God's Green Earth can say that this is not worth celebrating.

The Tatas have surely done their homework on this. Let's give them a chance.
 
VTORD
Posts: 786
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:10 pm

DIJKKIJK wrote:

What do you want then? That everyone paints one doomsday picture after another? We're getting enough of that.

A business group that is over a hundred years old and is known for its probity and business sense is making an investment that it can very well afford in the flag carrier of its country. It is ensuring thousands of jobs and saving millions for the taxpayers by taking a white elephant off their shoulders. Only the worst cynic on God's Green Earth can say that this is not worth celebrating.

The Tatas have surely done their homework on this. Let's give them a chance.

The homework part is the one I am not so sure of. But you make a fair point. And one well taken.
 
User avatar
BawliBooch
Posts: 1640
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:36 pm

pune wrote:
Tatas are gonna raise 15k crore loans from PSB's, as I had predicted. Private gains, public lossess -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 915648.cms

In essence, nothing changed for either the customer of the PSB banks or the taxpayers. :(


Well, there is a risk for sure. And you also have a point that the Tatas are a bit of a one-trick pony. But the Tatas winning the bid was the best case scenario given the alternatives. A lot of vultures were circling around to pick off the carcass. Many of these vultures were close to the ruling dispensation. Given the alternative scenarios, the Tatas getting Air India back is certainly the best case scenario we can hope for!

The Tatas will IMO merge the 3 airlines (Air India, Vistara, Air Asia India) into one unified brand at some time perhaps within the next year itself. Tony has already decided to exit right? Vistara made a compelling case with its product on domestic routes but had too limited reach to be an effective player. With a merger of the 3 airlines, the new Air India will be better able to take on the Big Bad Blue wolf and India will finally have a FSC in the domestic market again.

Indigo itself is a one trick pony too! Their capacity dumping tactics will be less effective with a privately owned Air India with a revamped and expanded fleet finally giving a stiff fight. Before, they could just dial the Minister or his secretary to get AI to pull out of routes. They wont be able to do that so easily now. Indigo will have to come up with some other trick. Like getting Ministers to throw regulatory hurdles at Air India. But that remains to be seen.

Not to say there are no pending spoilers. Ajay Singh, the Petyr Baelish of Indian aviation, will not give up so easily. Nor will he abandon his Naaginpanthi ways! There are reports of AS lobbying to get his slimy hands on AIX. AIX is a strong (and profitable) player on the routes it operates. Would certainly add to SG's bottom line which has itself been struggling. If they dont get AIX, I see no realistic way for Ajay Singh to save SpiceJet from becoming the next victim. There is a limit to the money in tax havens no? ;) Without AIX, SpiceJet is going down!

Lastly, there are strong indications that the Govt will use the Alliance Air AOC (not part of the Tata Deal) to spin off a new state owned domestic/regional international airline. Perhaps even reviving the Indian Airlines brand and IC code!

Not an unlikely theory. This exact same thing was talked about back in the 90's when the Tata-SIA were lobbying to make a joint bid. Back then, the madcap plan inluding shifting AI's A300B4's to IC and order a fleet of A318s! There is precedence in the neighborhood for this - Sri Lankan Govt setup "Mihin Lanka" with the exact same fleet when their state owned carrier Srilankan was sold off to Emirates. Indian politicians will no doubt try to recreate this mess in India. The dynamics are the same.

In a country like India, a state owned airline, especially a domestic airline, can be a useful way to dispense favors to friends. Also the need to connect far flung areas of the country to Delhi makes political and administrative sense. IndianAirlines did that in its day connecting all State capitals to Delhi with daily Jet flights. I doubt the Govt is going let go off either easily. Plus, a state owned airline gives the Govt the ability to respond quickly(and cheaply) to calamities or war like situations.

There is already talk of Vayudoot coming back in another avatar operating Dorniers in the North East and Hill Routes. Will the Govt also purchase a bunch of A220/A320s to revive the IC brand under Alliance AOC? Wont that put us back where we started - Govt as a player in Aviation?

Keep a watch out for the small print in the deal. Will AIX be part of the final deal? Or will Amit Shah intervene to change the deal and give the ever so loyal vulture Ajay Singh a share of the meat or will it all go to Tatas as it should? Waiting to see how the Gurus on this forum will defend that move by the Govt! ;)

Lets wait and watch "Hum Log"!
 
pune
Posts: 836
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:12 am

Nicely put. While I do see them merging all under one umbrella, do all the three have the same Aircraft. And at least Air India's fleet is old that they will have to spend money to get new, they will probably lease than buy let's see. And from what we know it probably will go to Boeing as currently Airbus has orders till kingdom come.

One of the things that none of us know is how far the pandemic is gonna be. If it's gonna be here for another 2-3 years and we have more variants, then all bets are off.

I do see the Govt. getting back into the saddle in Aviation, both for favors as well as connectivity and responding to calamities. Another point to add would be the number of babus that Civil Aviation Ministry has, for good or bad. They do wanna justify their roles, so very much possible to see Alliance AOC or any other name they feel like it.

Also, having a national airline is not a unique Indian thing, most countries which have aviation do have a national airline. And I suppose many of them also have losses. Till we don't see taxes in Aviation come down and instead of thinking of it as a luxury good rather than means of transport, don't think things will change.

Currently, the only policy as far as airports is concerned is to beautify airports and hand them over to Adani. No talk of any greenfield airports and no action as well. So guessing, it would take 2-3 years to see what really pans out, if anything.

I do agree on Indigo being one trick pony on dumping capacity, but they actually want to be more international, that is also where the big money is. But then how they fare against the big three is anybody's guess. Currently, the ME carriers have all it nicely stitched so getting any share from them is going to be a hard task for Indigo or any other carrier.

In either way, there are lots of ifs and buts. And as somebody had said Aviation is a funny business, in order to be a millionaire, you have to be a billionaire ;)
 
avier
Posts: 1329
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:47 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Indigo itself is a one trick pony too! Their capacity dumping tactics will be less effective with a privately owned Air India with a revamped and expanded fleet finally giving a stiff fight. Before, they could just dial the Minister or his secretary to get AI to pull out of routes. They wont be able to do that so easily now. Indigo will have to come up with some other trick. Like getting Ministers to throw regulatory hurdles at Air India. But that remains to be seen.

Not to say there are no pending spoilers. Ajay Singh, the Petyr Baelish of Indian aviation, will not give up so easily. Nor will he abandon his Naaginpanthi ways! There are reports of AS lobbying to get his slimy hands on AIX. AIX is a strong (and profitable) player on the routes it operates. Would certainly add to SG's bottom line which has itself been struggling. If they dont get AIX, I see no realistic way for Ajay Singh to save SpiceJet from becoming the next victim. There is a limit to the money in tax havens no? ;) Without AIX, SpiceJet is going down!

Lastly, there are strong indications that the Govt will use the Alliance Air AOC (not part of the Tata Deal) to spin off a new state owned domestic/regional international airline. Perhaps even reviving the Indian Airlines brand and IC code!

You're surely confusing IndiGo with Jet. It was 9W that used to get IC/AI to pull out of routes they wanted to themselves.

Regarding IC brand, it was part of the logo's & brands given to TATA's in the AI deal, so they would now own the IC brand too.

The TATA's have put out an official statement saying they've got AI+AIX, so at this point it seems very unlikely AIX can be given to anyone else. The deal has got a lot of media and public attention, so things can't be taken away at the last moment from the said and done deal.

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