Indian Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

pune · Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:55 pm

edealinfo wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
And Tatas have been given Air India but "tied it to PSBs".

I love your posts which by the way are very well written and interesting. There was one phrase [in quotes above] for which I didn't know what it meant. Could you kindly elaborate? Thanks.

It is simple. The way Tatas have done it, it is telling that they do not want to use their own cash flow and instead take from PSB's as and when it is required. If and when anything does go wrong, it would be for PSB's to try to get their money back. Tatas can simply wash their hands on the whole thing anytime they want. And there is no clue nor any guidance given by the Tatas as to what they hope to do going forward.

FWIW, I have made a thread about what is happening with Zee in a thread with citations, tells about Jhunjhunwala also.

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1466197

subramak1 · Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:45 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
hohd wrote:
Even though simple hot meals in economy should not be a problem, but it is for most carriers including AI. It is very difficult to be consistent. Better to keep it simple.

Simple hot meals in economy are not a problem. Indian Airlines did it for years. Jet Airways took it to a new level and Kingfisher took it even further. Jet Airways did get the "consistency" part right for the most part. Indian Airlines had a 2 tier model for airline catering. One standard for higher yielding routes like DEL-BOM and DEL-BLR where Taj Catering was hired and another standard for Tier-2 routes where companies like ChefAir were used. But at the end of the day, we had full hot meal service in economy even of 90 minute sectors.

Airline catering companies in India have not yet been infected with the greed that ended Meal service in the US market - $100 for a bag of ice chips greed has not yet happened here. ChefAir will still cater a full hot meal tray in economy class for under $3. What has definitely changed is that yields have crashed ever since the Big Bad Blue wolf started dumping capacity to push out the competition. Harder to make a profit with the same old service levels.

It might seem like a good thing for passengers - airlines dumping capacity. Lower fares for passengers right? Well! Look at NAG airport as a test case. Fares did trend lower when the Blue wolf started dumping capacity. But with the wolf dumping 6 or even 10 flights/day in a market that had 5 total earlier, there was no way to make money. 9W, I5 withdrew altogether and AI scaled back to half the former inventory to the station. Net result - travelers from that city are paying HIGHER average fares than before this game started. I am NOT arguing for Govt regulation - they should stay out of it. Just stating what is!

DIJKKIJK wrote:
That's exactly what some of the enlightened ones on this forum were saying about Air India some months ago. That it won't be sold, it won't have takers, too much debt, it will be gifted to 'friends' yada yada yada. Now look what's happened.

At least in these matters, this government seems different from the earlier ones. If they could scrap Article 370 and sell Air India, they are capable of doing anything.

Your faith is touching. But what the enlightened ones were saying about the Air India Sale was based on facts and history. Cronies did not want Air India, they wanted the carcass in pieces. Slots, Engineering resources, Ground Handling unit ((last 2 are still up for grabs BTW). But this Govt at this point has lost the political capital to make that happen. The AI disinvestment itself has already run into legal and political challenges. We havent heard the last of it. But again, your faith is touching, but misplaced! The Govt seems different but as Arun Shourie said so famously, at the end of the day this Govt is Congress + Cow.

subramak1 wrote:
Yes. PSB banks are loaning money to this venture, at least they can trust Tata sons to pay their loans as they have done for other debts. I am sure Indian banks would also be more careful about such things.

Well! That is EXACTLY what Gurus on this forum said about Kingfisher and Mallya in the period between 2005 and 2010. Check posts about Kingfisher on THIS forum from the period! Indigo has been playing the same SLB game that KFA did in its time but only on a much, much larger scale. And Tatas have been given Air India but tied it to PSBs. Again - what we have seen before. Did not work before! Why will it work now? Again, your Faith is touching, but entirely misplaced!

subramak1 wrote:
IT will slowly change. It may be hard to understand this, but level of corruption in Private sector in India are comparable or less than what it was in US when it was in the same economic stage. The primary driver was people's common sense and Teddy Roosevelts trust breaking. Thankfully for India, we can learn from their lessons. That is what RBI has been doing in banking. I am sure other organizations would do the same too.

Since you bought up RBI "reforms" - What exactly has RBI done in the last 12 months? Have those helped business or destroyed it? For eg the changed rules for recurring electronic payments and a dozen other "reforms"! Have those helped? The RBI under this govt is like a Bull in a China shop - destroying new businesses and value so they can be picked off by cronies for cheap. That is not reform! But we can discuss that in detail on Non-Aviation.

What we are discussing here is that the Airline sector in India is not getting the reforms it deserves. Ad-hoc decisions driven more by Interests of Cronies rather than what the sector actually needs. You know the Kabadi wallahs (Garbage recyclers) in the market who see value in breaking and selling items in pieces rather than building up something from the ground?

Like that!

Editing to add important PS: As I had predicted. RBI is starting to look closely at the Big Bad Blue wolf's numbers! KFA bubble also burst when RBI and financial institutions started ignoring the hype and looking closely at the numbers! Remember? Interesting times!

you try to score too many points. But here is the deal

1. Most Indians dont expect a hot meal in plane. Indigo's concept of no free meals has been well received. They want reliable and high frequency connections
2. Many years ago privatizing Air India was a key theme. This government has done it and has managed to release the real estate assets of erstwhile Air India into a separate entity. Yes, the deal has run into opposition. No good deed in India goes severely unpunished. Unlike you and I, I suspect Modi/Shah duo know more about what needs to get them elected, for 2019 it was Ujala for 2024 it will be "Har Ghar Jal". If only they had to focus on this, or populism, they could have slashed petrol prices rather than letting it sit high. This government has taken fiscal responsibility seriously in many fronts.
3. Not everything is about cronyism.
4. Tata companies are publicly listed and analyzed by many funds, I suspect those things would have come in open. Yes, they rely on Tata sons as their funding mechanism, that will not change in the near future. However in their other sectors, they are run professionally and I suspect, if some of that comes to Air India, they would recoup their money.

Lastly, your sarcasm on my opinion that my faith was misplaced, was uncalled for. If you cannot state facts without injecting your bias, please stop commenting.

Best, Subramanian

BawliBooch · Wed Oct 27, 2021 6:06 am

subramak1 wrote:
1. Most Indians dont expect a hot meal in plane. Indigo's concept of no free meals has been well received. They want reliable and high frequency connections

There is a large market for Low Cost. And there is a smaller, but still large market for Full Service Carriers. You cant say with certainty that one is more successful than the other. Remember what I said earlier about Kingfisher? In the 5 years between 2005 and 2010, they were THE model to emulate. Now it is Indigo.

There is a saying in the part of India that I come from - begins with "Everyone salutes the rising sun" and ends with my User name! Cant post the full saying here, but google it!

subramak1 wrote:
2Unlike you and I, I suspect Modi/Shah duo know more about what needs to get them elected, for 2019 it was Ujala for 2024 it will be "Har Ghar Jal". If only they had to focus on this, or populism, they could have slashed petrol prices rather than letting it sit high. This government has taken fiscal responsibility seriously in many fronts.

This forum is to discuss Aviation and specifically the Air India sale. The proper place for political opinion and showing your faith in Dear Leader is the Non Aviation forum. Please respect the rules of this site. Thank you.

subramak1 wrote:
3. Not everything is about cronyism.

Until it is. All the so called reforms have been about Cronyism. And I am just talking about Aviation reforms here. Not Jal or Gas Kreeda! :lol:

subramak1 wrote:
4. Tata companies are publicly listed and analyzed by many funds, I suspect those things would have come in open. Yes, they rely on Tata sons as their funding mechanism, that will not change in the near future. However in their other sectors, they are run professionally and I suspect, if some of that comes to Air India, they would recoup their money.

Tata Sons had debt of 48000 crores in 2019 (when i last checked) and Debt to EBIDTA ratio of 7? Are those good figures? The gross debt of all companies in Tata group was upwards of 2.5 LAKH CRORES! And rising! Are those good figures? Professionally run company indeed! All the numbers show that Tata Group havent been able to pare down their skyrocketing debt and yet you say "they will recoup their investment"? Again, this is driven by your "faith" or facts?

subramak1 wrote:
Lastly, your sarcasm on my opinion that my faith was misplaced, was uncalled for. If you cannot state facts without injecting your bias, please stop commenting.
Best, Subramanian

Instead of facts, all you have laid out in your posts on this thread is "My dear Leader will do it". This in a discussion on how the Govt has miserably failed on all counts to bring in reform and all we have seen in Aviation reforms is cronyism. All your responses dont counter this with fact but with Reassertions of Faith. So my comment on the "Faithful" was entirely in line.

And again - Please restrict Political Opinions to the Non-Aviation Forum. Lets keep this clean!

pune · Thu Oct 28, 2021 3:45 pm

And seems Spicejet on its last legs, anytime it can go out. Winter schedule they have pared almost 1/3rd of their offering -

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 38588.html

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 43171.html

So much for 'Aache Din' (Good days, a term coined by the present Modi Govt.)

subramak1 · Thu Oct 28, 2021 6:24 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
1. Most Indians dont expect a hot meal in plane. Indigo's concept of no free meals has been well received. They want reliable and high frequency connections

There is a large market for Low Cost. And there is a smaller, but still large market for Full Service Carriers. You cant say with certainty that one is more successful than the other. Remember what I said earlier about Kingfisher? In the 5 years between 2005 and 2010, they were THE model to emulate. Now it is Indigo.

There is a saying in the part of India that I come from - begins with "Everyone salutes the rising sun" and ends with my User name! Cant post the full saying here, but google it!

subramak1 wrote:
2Unlike you and I, I suspect Modi/Shah duo know more about what needs to get them elected, for 2019 it was Ujala for 2024 it will be "Har Ghar Jal". If only they had to focus on this, or populism, they could have slashed petrol prices rather than letting it sit high. This government has taken fiscal responsibility seriously in many fronts.

This forum is to discuss Aviation and specifically the Air India sale. The proper place for political opinion and showing your faith in Dear Leader is the Non Aviation forum. Please respect the rules of this site. Thank you.

subramak1 wrote:
3. Not everything is about cronyism.

Until it is. All the so called reforms have been about Cronyism. And I am just talking about Aviation reforms here. Not Jal or Gas Kreeda!

subramak1 wrote:
4. Tata companies are publicly listed and analyzed by many funds, I suspect those things would have come in open. Yes, they rely on Tata sons as their funding mechanism, that will not change in the near future. However in their other sectors, they are run professionally and I suspect, if some of that comes to Air India, they would recoup their money.

Tata Sons had debt of 48000 crores in 2019 (when i last checked) and Debt to EBIDTA ratio of 7? Are those good figures? The gross debt of all companies in Tata group was upwards of 2.5 LAKH CRORES! And rising! Are those good figures? Professionally run company indeed! All the numbers show that Tata Group havent been able to pare down their skyrocketing debt and yet you say "they will recoup their investment"? Again, this is driven by your "faith" or facts?

subramak1 wrote:
Lastly, your sarcasm on my opinion that my faith was misplaced, was uncalled for. If you cannot state facts without injecting your bias, please stop commenting.
Best, Subramanian

Instead of facts, all you have laid out in your posts on this thread is "My dear Leader will do it". This in a discussion on how the Govt has miserably failed on all counts to bring in reform and all we have seen in Aviation reforms is cronyism. All your responses dont counter this with fact but with Reassertions of Faith. So my comment on the "Faithful" was entirely in line.

And again - Please restrict Political Opinions to the Non-Aviation Forum. Lets keep this clean!

On the first point, across world we have seen no frills arilines thriving. I dont see India should be any different. You are welcome to bury your head in the sand, that is your choise.

Please re-read you comment about the dear leader based on literally two lines from me. It shows your bias, and frankly makes no sense to argue any other point of yours.

Best, Subramanian

subramak1 · Thu Oct 28, 2021 6:37 pm

pune wrote:
And seems Spicejet on its last legs, anytime it can go out. Winter schedule they have pared almost 1/3rd of their offering -

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 38588.html

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 43171.html

So much for 'Aache Din' (Good days, a term coined by the present Modi Govt.)

If Spice jet is running its business aground, why should government be blamed for it?

Best, Subramanian

pune · Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:51 pm

Did somebody remove the Tata Sons article, as that clearly showed how much debt Tata Sons has (it is the controlling group to buy Air India.)

https://www.businesstoday.in/magazine/c ... 2020-02-18

pune · Fri Oct 29, 2021 2:03 am

IndiGo parent posts bigger quarterly loss as fuel expenses soar

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-10-28/

FligtReporter · Fri Oct 29, 2021 1:22 pm

pune wrote:
And seems Spicejet on its last legs, anytime it can go out. Winter schedule they have pared almost 1/3rd of their offering -

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 38588.html

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 43171.html

So much for 'Aache Din' (Good days, a term coined by the present Modi Govt.)

So is there a possibility of Spicejet going bankrupt soon ? Please tell me by when could they go bankrupt and cease operations ? I already have done my booking for KBK both next month and in new years..I hope they go bankrupt after january 2022.

And Hope 6E,AI,UK start services to my cousin base KBK soon.

hohd · Fri Oct 29, 2021 2:26 pm

pune wrote:
IndiGo parent posts bigger quarterly loss as fuel expenses soar

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-10-28/

Basically the airfares are too low still in India and with predatory pricing and capacity dumping Indigo has become a victim of its own strategy.

I dont know what some commenters want here concerning AI bid.. For the AI bidding process, Tata and Spice owner submitted bids. Many disliked Spice owner since he was "tied" to the present government and even I thought it was a joke. Tata got the bid but now some are unhappy that Tata would be getting loans from PSB. Any business will take loans, why do you assume that Tatas will fail ?

What is GoI supposed to do with AI, keep it as is and accumulate losses ? There have been no other bidders and there are no other options.

pune · Fri Oct 29, 2021 3:32 pm

I had actually asked about this - https://postimg.cc/D8dxKFpC but didn't get any satisfactory answer by anybody

pune · Fri Oct 29, 2021 3:43 pm

As far as pricing is concerned, it has risen 15-20% since before. If you want you could make double the fares, but I would doubt how many would still fly. RBI's own business confidence survey published on 8th October 2021 shared this -

https://i.postimg.cc/SR87csg4/rbi-confidence-survey.jpg

And the same has been found independently by CMIE too, that's people incomes have fallen a cliff as well as layoffs.

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/vide ... 2021-08-04

Part of it has to do with Pandemic, part of it has to do with issues far before the Pandemic. Unemployment rate was 45 year high just three years ago -

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Econo ... 379174.ece

That time it was 6.3% of the total population, now it's 10%+, This makes things more difficult, not easier.

avier · Fri Oct 29, 2021 5:02 pm

hohd wrote:
Basically the airfares are too low still in India and with predatory pricing and capacity dumping Indigo has become a victim of its own strategy.

Capacity dumping only on competitor routes. On their monopoly routes they maintain capacity & fare discipline, with fares being on higher side.

BawliBooch · Sat Oct 30, 2021 2:20 am

subramak1 wrote:
On the first point, across world we have seen no frills arilines thriving. I dont see India should be any different. You are welcome to bury your head in the sand, that is your choise.

Yes. LCC/ULCC is a proven concept. However that is not what I was questioning. What I specifically said was - There is a market for both LCC and FSC offerings in any airline market. How hard was that to understand? If you had bothered to read the post before typing this out maybe you would not have typed this!

As for Indigo, which you seem so enamored about, the big bad blue wolf has declared losses for 7 straight quarters. There once was an airline called Kingfisher which for some members on this forum could do nothing wrong! Remember how quickly KFA unraveled?

subramak1 wrote:
Please re-read you comment about the dear leader based on literally two lines from me. It shows your bias, and frankly makes no sense to argue any other point of yours.

My comment about Dear Leader was in response to your comment about him. Some people cant help crediting Dear Leader even for a successful bowel movement!

If you want to discuss Politics take it to the Non-Aviation forum. And please lay off the personal attacks.

BawliBooch · Sat Oct 30, 2021 2:27 am

Question - if Indigo Airlines does fall apart like Kingfisher, as many are now predicting, should the Govt of India prop it up with Taxpayer money under the "Too big to fail" concept? After all, Jhunjhuna-wala is investing in Akasa so it will not be like India wont have a LCC?

IMO, Indigo should be allowed to fail. It is a victim of its own capacity dumping tactics to gain market share. Why should Taxpayers foot the bill?

In any case, any State aid to any airline should be in return for equity. We cannot afford Taxpayer funded Blank cheques!

lightsaber · Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:26 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
Question - if Indigo Airlines does fall apart like Kingfisher, as many are now predicting

Who is predicting this? They ended the last fiscal year with 71 billion rupees of cash.
Their stock is doing well.

https://www.goindigo.in/content/dam/goi ... 020-21.pdf

Links i see:
https://www.sify.com/finance/indigo-to- ... eggbg.html
"Post pandemic, the airline recovery has been erratic. Indigo, with its relatively stronger finances will retain its market share in the medium term while the other players rebuild their operations."

I'm reading more how their quick switch to a NEO fleet gives them a huge advantage as fuel prices increase.
I recall Kingfisher, its failure was predicted far before the shutdown. I haven't heard a whisper about Indigo failing; in fact most of what I read is they are being too conservative in 2022 expansion plans. They have the cash to maintain discipline. Please post links on such a fact based statement.

If anything, I expect Indigo to make a little money while bleeding the competition, with their mostly prior generation fleets in a recovering long haul market. I do expect airline failures in India.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:35 pm

I like to quantify,
https://www.telegraphindia.com/business ... id/1836368
The loss was 1,436 crore or $191.5 million USD or the price of 4 or 5 new NEO aircraft.

A loss isn't great. But what was Air India's loss?

I note tata chemicals made about that in profit (a hair more):
https://www.tatachemicals.com/upload/co ... p-2021.pdf

I couldn't find Vistara's latest quarterly report, them losing money last fiscal year is no surprise:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... m%20Tofler.

When did AirAsia India last make a profit, last year was brutal for their size:
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 289_1.html

SpiceJet's loss for the last fiscal wasn't too bad, considering their size:
https://simpleflying.com/spicejet-loss-fy-2021-21/

Lightsaber

avier · Sat Oct 30, 2021 5:20 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Who is predicting this? They ended the last fiscal year with 71 billion rupees of cash.
Their stock is doing well.

No one's predicting such things, apart from a few naysayers that like to spell doom for even well run companies.

6E comparison to KF is an odd one, considering they are literally the opposite in every way.
KF never made even a penny as profit in their entire existence, they were loss making from inception till the grave.

6E has been profitable for most of their existence. Their CEO claims they have the lowest cost structure in the world along with one of the lowest aircraft ownership costs. This is one airline that knows what they are doing and are serious about their business.
https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 034_1.html
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 342930.cms

Vistara would be a better comparison to KF actually, in terms of finances. Only difference is UK has promoters who are willing to throw money at it.

pune · Sun Oct 31, 2021 7:28 am

What people don't seem to ralize consciously or unsconsily that they are being made to pay more and more for the same services. For e.g.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/fro ... 58621.html

Now essentially these services at airports are supposed to be 'free' but apparently all the Airports under the Adani brand, the passengers (pax) would have to pay extra charges in order to avail such services.

Seems the 'aache din' of Indian aviation is finally here. There is a famous/infamous quote of Shashi Tharoor comparing people to sheep in the way they are put/herded into the aircraft and jam-packed together. And the headbutting and Air rage which all follows, and those who have flown a bit have seen/experienced it more often than not.

Now the sheeple https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sheeple will also be cut as much as possible and nothing can be done about it as Airports are natural monopolies.

pune · Sun Oct 31, 2021 8:23 pm

Adani and 6 airports beautifully explained -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHBDng-nvFo

edealinfo · Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:48 am

Vistara Plans Boeing 787 Flights To The United States Via London Gatwick

3X weekly; doesn't seem like they got 5th freedmon rights.

Air India, at one point had historical fifth freedom flights (India-LHR-JFK), but they dropped LHR-JFK in favor of additional LHR-India flights. Are they able to revive those historical 5th freedom flights (assuming slots are available, or have the lost it forever)?

https://simpleflying.com/vistrara-boein ... es-london/

subramak1 · Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:05 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
On the first point, across world we have seen no frills arilines thriving. I dont see India should be any different. You are welcome to bury your head in the sand, that is your choise.

Yes. LCC/ULCC is a proven concept. However that is not what I was questioning. What I specifically said was - There is a market for both LCC and FSC offerings in any airline market. How hard was that to understand? If you had bothered to read the post before typing this out maybe you would not have typed this!

As for Indigo, which you seem so enamored about, the big bad blue wolf has declared losses for 7 straight quarters. There once was an airline called Kingfisher which for some members on this forum could do nothing wrong! Remember how quickly KFA unraveled?

subramak1 wrote:
Please re-read you comment about the dear leader based on literally two lines from me. It shows your bias, and frankly makes no sense to argue any other point of yours.

My comment about Dear Leader was in response to your comment about him. Some people cant help crediting Dear Leader even for a successful bowel movement!

If you want to discuss Politics take it to the Non-Aviation forum. And please lay off the personal attacks.

If there is market for an domestic FSC in India now, no one knows where it is. Tata's have not done great with Vistara either. Kingfisher and Jet are dead.

Your comments about personal attacks are like pot calling the kettle black

Subramanian

subramak1 · Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
Question - if Indigo Airlines does fall apart like Kingfisher, as many are now predicting

Who is predicting this? They ended the last fiscal year with 71 billion rupees of cash.
Their stock is doing well.

https://www.goindigo.in/content/dam/goi ... 020-21.pdf

Links i see:
https://www.sify.com/finance/indigo-to- ... eggbg.html
"Post pandemic, the airline recovery has been erratic. Indigo, with its relatively stronger finances will retain its market share in the medium term while the other players rebuild their operations."

I'm reading more how their quick switch to a NEO fleet gives them a huge advantage as fuel prices increase.
I recall Kingfisher, its failure was predicted far before the shutdown. I haven't heard a whisper about Indigo failing; in fact most of what I read is they are being too conservative in 2022 expansion plans. They have the cash to maintain discipline. Please post links on such a fact based statement.

If anything, I expect Indigo to make a little money while bleeding the competition, with their mostly prior generation fleets in a recovering long haul market. I do expect airline failures in India.

Lightsaber

You are absolutely right. Failures happen in mature markets too. The key is failures like these happen in businesses. Jet went down, KF went down, they did not read/adapt to market. In a fairly open economy like India, these failures will result in new players coming in. Like it or not, Indigo has reset expectations for Indian travellers. If I am flying MAA HYD, I dont need damn food service when I can pick up something from the airport. If I am flying Jharsuguda BLR or Darbhang BLR, I am actually saving 4 days in my vacation time. Going 2.5 hrs without so called free food is not really my priority. For people who want, Vistara and Air India exist in those markets

Unfortunately , this forum is filled with "Faux News" people who scream the loudest about the current Indian government and its moves. You praise one of their schemes, they start naming and shaming you. If Indian economy grew 20% next year, they will claim that poverty is a problem.

We need them attribute to things to back their opinions. Else it is non sense fillers.

Subramanian

subramak1 · Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:13 pm

pune wrote:
What people don't seem to ralize consciously or unsconsily that they are being made to pay more and more for the same services. For e.g.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/fro ... 58621.html

Now essentially these services at airports are supposed to be 'free' but apparently all the Airports under the Adani brand, the passengers (pax) would have to pay extra charges in order to avail such services.

Seems the 'aache din' of Indian aviation is finally here. There is a famous/infamous quote of Shashi Tharoor comparing people to sheep in the way they are put/herded into the aircraft and jam-packed together. And the headbutting and Air rage which all follows, and those who have flown a bit have seen/experienced it more often than not.

Now the sheeple https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sheeple will also be cut as much as possible and nothing can be done about it as Airports are natural monopolies.

The article you linked does not say anything about extra fees. Did you mean to quote another article?

Best, Subramanian

hohd · Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:31 pm

pune wrote:
What people don't seem to ralize consciously or unsconsily that they are being made to pay more and more for the same services. For e.g.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/fro ... 58621.html

Now essentially these services at airports are supposed to be 'free' but apparently all the Airports under the Adani brand, the passengers (pax) would have to pay extra charges in order to avail such services.

Seems the 'aache din' of Indian aviation is finally here. There is a famous/infamous quote of Shashi Tharoor comparing people to sheep in the way they are put/herded into the aircraft and jam-packed together. And the headbutting and Air rage which all follows, and those who have flown a bit have seen/experienced it more often than not.

Now the sheeple https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sheeple will also be cut as much as possible and nothing can be done about it as Airports are natural monopolies.

There is nothing free. Adani took over to make money and part of it will come through passenger fees. Situation and circumstances change all the time, what was free before is longer free (like meals on flights - soon Vistara and Air India will have to pare down their free meals on short domestic hops to better compete with LCC carriers).

There is no fundamental right that air travel should be cheap, in fact in India the air fares are quite low considering the fuel prices, taxes and the disposal income of passengers who travel by air.

CaliguyNYC · Tue Nov 02, 2021 1:35 am

edealinfo wrote:
Vistara Plans Boeing 787 Flights To The United States Via London Gatwick

3X weekly; doesn't seem like they got 5th freedmon rights.

Air India, at one point had historical fifth freedom flights (India-LHR-JFK), but they dropped LHR-JFK in favor of additional LHR-India flights. Are they able to revive those historical 5th freedom flights (assuming slots are available, or have the lost it forever)?

https://simpleflying.com/vistrara-boein ... es-london/

The US and UK bilaterals with India give 5th freedom between LON and US, so Vistara has them - nothing really to get per se. The LON-NYC market is very competitive with high UK taxes and generally low fares. Carriers make their money off of Business and Prem economy. Unlikely Vistara will get that crowd unless they partner with say Virgin and Delta and just become one of their many flights between US and LON. IMHO, Vistara needs to negotiate hard with all three alliances for the right EU partner. Jet had the right idea and now Vistara plus AI has all the leverage to strike a great deal. Personally I think UA will never treat AI/Uk well since UA is so dominant between US-India. It is either AA/BA or DL/KL/AF from my pov.

edealinfo · Tue Nov 02, 2021 3:45 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Unlikely Vistara will get that crowd unless they partner with say Virgin and Delta and just become one of their many flights between US and LON. IMHO, Vistara needs to negotiate hard with all three alliances for the right EU partner. Jet had the right idea and now Vistara plus AI has all the leverage to strike a great deal. Personally I think UA will never treat AI/Uk well since UA is so dominant between US-India. It is either AA/BA or DL/KL/AF from my pov.

a) But, isn't Vistara already in bed with Lufthansa? So why, would it allow Vistara to go AA/BA or DL/KL/AF?

b) WHy wouldn't UA want to partner with AI/UK? It would make it an super strong combination (UA/Lufthansa/AI-UK) that could give it a monopolistic like postion and a formidable competitor to Qatar, Emirates, Etihad, AA/BA, and DL/KL/AF?

avier · Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:16 am

edealinfo wrote:
a) But, isn't Vistara already in bed with Lufthansa? So why, would it allow Vistara to go AA/BA or DL/KL/AF?

b) WHy wouldn't UA want to partner with AI/UK? It would make it an super strong combination (UA/Lufthansa/AI-UK) that could give it a monopolistic like postion and a formidable competitor to Qatar, Emirates, Etihad, AA/BA, and DL/KL/AF?

Vistara has a codeshare agreement with BA.
They also have codeshare with UA.
https://www.airvistara.com/in/en/partne ... e-partners

VTORD · Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:44 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Personally I think UA will never treat AI/Uk well since UA is so dominant between US-India. It is either AA/BA or DL/KL/AF from my pov.

AI as a GoI vessel was one thing, AI under private ownership might be much more pallatabe and a whole new ball game for UA. Personally pre-pandemic, I would have theorized that BA/AA (conditional to LHR slots) brought most value to UK but AA seems to have gone with 6E for now - so it's probably wait and watch to see how that plays out.

edealinfo wrote:
WHy wouldn't UA want to partner with AI/UK? It would make it an super strong combination (UA/Lufthansa/AI-UK) that could give it a monopolistic like postion and a formidable competitor to Qatar, Emirates, Etihad, AA/BA, and DL/KL/AF?

It is quite clear that the LGW flight if it materializes, is aimed as a stop gap for the crew rest problem on UK's Dreamliners. Eventually India-US flight frequencies will go back to 2019 levels. This (LGW) might replace the AI DEL-EWR freeing up an a/c for another route. What would be interesting to watch is the UA-SQ codeshare which was announced today(?) - I believe it was "details to follow" and the release said might be extended to Scoot in the future. With SQ cozying up to UA and already existing relationship with LH plus UK's codeshare with UA, it definitely seems Star A is the way to go.

But a lot will depend on how Tata Group handles AI going forward.

pune · Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:45 am

hohd wrote:
pune wrote:
What people don't seem to ralize consciously or unsconsily that they are being made to pay more and more for the same services. For e.g.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/fro ... 58621.html

Now essentially these services at airports are supposed to be 'free' but apparently all the Airports under the Adani brand, the passengers (pax) would have to pay extra charges in order to avail such services.

Seems the 'aache din' of Indian aviation is finally here. There is a famous/infamous quote of Shashi Tharoor comparing people to sheep in the way they are put/herded into the aircraft and jam-packed together. And the headbutting and Air rage which all follows, and those who have flown a bit have seen/experienced it more often than not.

Now the sheeple https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sheeple will also be cut as much as possible and nothing can be done about it as Airports are natural monopolies.

There is nothing free. Adani took over to make money and part of it will come through passenger fees. Situation and circumstances change all the time, what was free before is longer free (like meals on flights - soon Vistara and Air India will have to pare down their free meals on short domestic hops to better compete with LCC carriers).

There is no fundamental right that air travel should be cheap, in fact in India the air fares are quite low considering the fuel prices, taxes and the disposal income of passengers who travel by air.

Don't worry, they are already hard at work at squeezing you and me as much as they can -

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/atf ... 21357.html

And on top of it now the Govt. protects bankers so all and any NPA's can happen without any accountability -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 469774.cms

Jai Ho PSB Banks. (PSB= Public Sector Banks) .

pune · Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:01 am

Tata Motors loss - https://www.livemint.com/companies/comp ... 01124.html

pune · Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:17 am

@subramak1 as well as @hohd I have answered both of you properly at viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1466481 as there is many a context which would not fit here. Feel free to take it apart.

edealinfo · Tue Nov 02, 2021 12:43 pm

avier wrote:
Vistara has a codeshare agreement with BA.
They also have codeshare with UA.
https://www.airvistara.com/in/en/partne ... e-partners

VTORD wrote:
It is quite clear that the LGW flight if it materializes, is aimed as a stop gap for the crew rest problem on UK's Dreamliners. Eventually India-US flight frequencies will go back to 2019 levels. This (LGW) might replace the AI DEL-EWR freeing up an a/c for another route. What would be interesting to watch is the UA-SQ codeshare which was announced today(?) - I believe it was "details to follow" and the release said might be extended to Scoot in the future. With SQ cozying up to UA and already existing relationship with LH plus UK's codeshare with UA, it definitely seems Star A is the way to go.

But a lot will depend on how Tata Group handles AI going forward.

VTORD's theory is plausible but in this scenario what happens to the existing UK codeshare with BA? Can that still survive in a UA/LH/SQ/AI-UK parnership?

edealinfo · Tue Nov 02, 2021 1:44 pm

For what it's worth, my view is that the Government's disposition of Air India is a fantastic move as it took the albatross round its neck.

I'd like to know what the view is from the Tata's perspective. Did they get it for pennies on the dollar in the sense that they got it dirt cheap? Or, was it fair market value, or did they overpay? What would they do with Air India's dingy planes and tarnished reputation? From a marketing perspective only, assuming a Vistara/Air Asia India/AI merger, I assume it would make sense for Vistara to be the new Air India avatar, while the Air India brand can be used for the low-price brand for Air India Express/Air Asia India. Comments?

hohd · Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:09 pm

edealinfo wrote:
For what it's worth, my view is that the Government's disposition of Air India is a fantastic move as it took the albatross round its neck.

I'd like to know what the view is from the Tata's perspective. Did they get it for pennies on the dollar in the sense that they got it dirt cheap? Or, was it fair market value, or did they overpay? What would they do with Air India's dingy planes and tarnished reputation? From a marketing perspective only, assuming a Vistara/Air Asia India/AI merger, I assume it would make sense for Vistara to be the new Air India avatar, while the Air India brand can be used for the low-price brand for Air India Express/Air Asia India. Comments?

You are right that GoI got rid of AI is a good move. From the first look, it does appear that Tatas purchase is in between fair market value and bit of overpay, especially considering that they have to retain AI employees for another year. Currently all central govt agencies have to use AI first, and can use other carriers only if AI does not fly that route on that day. Not sure if Tata have that in their purchase agreement for a year.

Tatas have to work overtime to sort out merger issues and at the same time, the bubble flights will be gone so they dont have cushion of some monopoly on many key long haul routes. Dont know how Tatas will proceed with which brand will be for long haul ops, but AI express for the low cost side would be ideal.

VTORD · Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:44 pm

edealinfo wrote:

VTORD's theory is plausible but in this scenario what happens to the existing UK codeshare with BA? Can that still survive in a UA/LH/SQ/AI-UK parnership?

Someone had commented in the SQ-UA thread that A.Net tends to put lot of undue importance on "airlines not getting along". I agree. If you read the link that @avier shared, it is a code share for essentially onward domestic travel within India and an "extended interline" (what ever that means) for travel from India-LHR-EU. I think it is a pretty small footprint by any yardstick. And as the post-pandemic travel pattern emerges, BA may even find it unnecessary going forward.

There are many things in play here for e.g., the AA-6E codeshare. AA and BA have a close TATL relationship and maybe BA will find that it is better off going with 6E for domestic codeshare within India. It's a business arrangement. If it doesn't work out, it won't be what ends BA or UK. Either ways, I think the Tatas have their task cut out right now with the new integration of their latest acquisition and these could probably wait until those big items are sorted out.

VTORD · Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:59 pm

hohd wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
For what it's worth, my view is that the Government's disposition of Air India is a fantastic move as it took the albatross round its neck.

I'd like to know what the view is from the Tata's perspective. Did they get it for pennies on the dollar in the sense that they got it dirt cheap? Or, was it fair market value, or did they overpay? What would they do with Air India's dingy planes and tarnished reputation? From a marketing perspective only, assuming a Vistara/Air Asia India/AI merger, I assume it would make sense for Vistara to be the new Air India avatar, while the Air India brand can be used for the low-price brand for Air India Express/Air Asia India. Comments?

You are right that GoI got rid of AI is a good move. From the first look, it does appear that Tatas purchase is in between fair market value and bit of overpay, especially considering that they have to retain AI employees for another year. Currently all central govt agencies have to use AI first, and can use other carriers only if AI does not fly that route on that day. Not sure if Tata have that in their purchase agreement for a year.

Tatas have to work overtime to sort out merger issues and at the same time, the bubble flights will be gone so they dont have cushion of some monopoly on many key long haul routes. Dont know how Tatas will proceed with which brand will be for long haul ops, but AI express for the low cost side would be ideal.

Over simplified darts-on-a-board speculation:
Cut the chord with Air Asia and limit losses
AI Express becomes domestic LCC + short haul international
Can be complemented by UK's A321Neo product on certain premium routes
Keep AI brand with UK onboard product on international long haul

AI's oldest 777s are about 15(?) years old so they probably have another 5 years in them. The 787s are about 7 so I am assuming about another 7-8 years left there.
Key questions: What is the $$ and time line for overhauling (at least some of) AI's international fleet? and how quickly do Boeing's 787 production issues get sorted so that Tata doesn't spend more than they need to?

bostrv · Tue Nov 02, 2021 3:52 pm

If the cost of Air Asia is near that of IX, there could be more India - GCC markets that could be tried.

TRV-DMM/MCT were among the last routes that 9W pulled out of. There should be other like them, esp out of CNN/IXE etc which are not ports of call for foreign aircraft.
MAA - SIN/KUL etc might be workable also?

edealinfo · Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:18 pm

VTORD wrote:
Keep AI brand with UK onboard product on international long haul
for overhauling (at least some of) AI's international fleet? and how quickly do Boeing's 787 production issues get sorted so that Tata doesn't spend more than they need to?

Why keep a tarnished brand? All the negative comments online aren't going to be wiped out.

avier · Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:04 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Why keep a tarnished brand? All the negative comments online aren't going to be wiped out.

Old legacy brands, despite the negative sentiments online, have a great appeal and will find many takers from amongst the average public. There's a certain comfort level for some, with opting for a familiar and well known brand thats been around for long, especially amongst the older population. Much like how some prefer to buy electronics from old well known brands than some newer Chinese brand, despite the latter offering better specs.

Likewise many legacy airlines, despite the hate they get online and on media, tend to be popular amongst the average flyer.

BawliBooch · Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:20 am

edealinfo wrote:
Vistara Plans Boeing 787 Flights To The United States Via London Gatwick

3X weekly; doesn't seem like they got 5th freedmon rights.

Air India, at one point had historical fifth freedom flights (India-LHR-JFK), but they dropped LHR-JFK in favor of additional LHR-India flights. Are they able to revive those historical 5th freedom flights (assuming slots are available, or have the lost it forever)?

https://simpleflying.com/vistrara-boein ... es-london/

Are people taking a SimpleFlying post seriously? This story is itself based on a livefromLounge leak from a known PR hack.

Couple of doubts I have about this. International flights out of India are operated under an air bubble right? Can airlines get 5th freedom traffic on these flights as these PR hacks are suggesting? Something just doesnt add up here!

VTORD wrote:
Can be complemented by UK's A321Neo product on certain premium routes
Keep AI brand with UK onboard product on international long haul

UK's A321NEO may be too premium for these 4-5 hour routes that IX specializes in.

Agree with most of the rest. Would add that Tatas would have to invest significantly in getting even the current AI international fleet to standard. Their A32S fleet is fine, but Air India has some of the rattiest 777/787s flying today!

VTORD · Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:19 am

avier wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Why keep a tarnished brand? All the negative comments online aren't going to be wiped out.

Old legacy brands, despite the negative sentiments online, have a great appeal and will find many takers from amongst the average public. There's a certain comfort level for some, with opting for a familiar and well known brand thats been around for long, especially amongst the older population. Much like how some prefer to buy electronics from old well known brands than some newer Chinese brand, despite the latter offering better specs.

Likewise many legacy airlines, despite the hate they get online and on media, tend to be popular amongst the average flyer.

Never underestimate the power of a "Once-world-class airline-neglected-by-government-apathy-retuning-to-it's-founder-and-remaking-it's-image-as-it-proudly-flies-the-country's-name-at-some-of-the-busiest-airports-in-the-world" marketing strategy. It's all about making JRD proud. Apro Ratan's memory can be quite powerful.
Although to be fair we still don't know what SQ thinks of all this.

BawliBooch wrote:
Would add that Tatas would have to invest significantly in getting even the current AI international fleet to standard. Their A32S fleet is fine, but Air India has some of the rattiest 777/787s flying today!

What is going to be more expensive over the next 5-7 years? The cost of fleet acquisition or the cost of investing in a ready-made fleet that can keep the ASKMs stocked particularly in the face of a looming HR expense and unpredictable supplier reliability.

BawliBooch · Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:53 pm

VTORD wrote:
Although to be fair we still don't know what SQ thinks of all this.

There was a time when SQ would have preferred AI as the underdog as that would allow SQ to continue using AI to funnel traffic through its SIN hub. But the market has grown enormously since the early 2000s to put it mildly. So SQ might be more amenable to a revamped AI taking more traffic without endangering its SIN hub. I think it is the ME3 carriers who have more to lose from the new AI, and I have no doubt they will put in roadblocks.

That said, I don't see the Tata-SIA relationship lasting for much longer. The relationship is fraught with contradictions too many to recount.

The Tata-SIA relationship was forged in late 1990s because Ratan Tata knew that he couldn't get Air India back alone, especially with a connected player like Naresh Goyal playing his games. The Tata-SIA alliance lost the first round and then 5 rounds more!

But now Goyal is licking his wounds, and the Tatas have Air India. Will the Tata-SIA alliance stay?

VTORD wrote:
What is going to be more expensive over the next 5-7 years? The cost of fleet acquisition or the cost of investing in a ready-made fleet that can keep the ASKMs stocked particularly in the face of a looming HR expense and unpredictable supplier reliability.

Agree. Just pointing out an expense head. Maybe they can just deep clean the whole damn widebody fleet instead of product upgrade? That by itself would be HUUUUUGE upgrade.

CaliguyNYC · Thu Nov 04, 2021 12:43 am

edealinfo wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Unlikely Vistara will get that crowd unless they partner with say Virgin and Delta and just become one of their many flights between US and LON. IMHO, Vistara needs to negotiate hard with all three alliances for the right EU partner. Jet had the right idea and now Vistara plus AI has all the leverage to strike a great deal. Personally I think UA will never treat AI/Uk well since UA is so dominant between US-India. It is either AA/BA or DL/KL/AF from my pov.

a) But, isn't Vistara already in bed with Lufthansa? So why, would it allow Vistara to go AA/BA or DL/KL/AF?

b) WHy wouldn't UA want to partner with AI/UK? It would make it an super strong combination (UA/Lufthansa/AI-UK) that could give it a monopolistic like postion and a formidable competitor to Qatar, Emirates, Etihad, AA/BA, and DL/KL/AF?

What does in bed mean? UK and LH don’t have a JV or anything so not in bed. Also codeshares (as others have pointed out are a nothing burger). UK/AI needs a real relationship with a EU AND a US carrier. This partnership has to either be a JV or a virtual JV that gives UK/AI access to cheap seats as it needs it plus prominent placement in the FF flyer program. Take Delta - if an airline isnt in Delta’s tier 1 (now not labeled as such), pax basically earn half or less if they fly that FF partner. Jet was tier 1 and a DL high status FF earned really well on Jet. Also DL/KL/AF/VS gave Jet (and vice versa) three EU hubs to seamlessly connect to the US. The issue with UA is that I think they just want UK/AI for domestic India connections since they are flying nonstop to India on UA metal. They have stayed far away from AI (no matter how bad AI was, a lot of pax flew them - volume wise - so why would UA be so distant from AI? Because they want those pax flying UA metal. Either way, UK just needs to find a strong relationship with either UA/LH, AA/BA.D/AF/KL/VS. All have pros and cons - can’t really lose with either which is why I think they should go with the airlines that give them the best deal. Btw the future doesn’t seem alliance driven but rather regional airline partnerships so could be with DL/AF for US/EU and CX in Asia.

edealinfo · Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:52 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Btw the future doesn’t seem alliance driven but rather regional airline partnerships so could be with DL/AF for US/EU and CX in Asia.

Why would CX be more than 0% probability given that the Tatas partner with SINGAPORE Airlines via Vistara already? Also, does India trust the Chinese? Some would argue it is "Hong Kong" but now everyone knows China truly runs the show there.

edealinfo · Fri Nov 05, 2021 1:54 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
UK just needs to find a strong relationship with either UA/LH, AA/BA.D/AF/KL/VS. All have pros and cons - can’t really lose with either which is why I think they should go with the airlines that give them the best deal.

I get that UK needs a partner. But, why do UA/LH, AA/BA.D/AF/KL/VS need UK if they can just code share with it for India domestic connections?

edealinfo · Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:15 am

SpiceJet charters a B767 for European operations

a) Wonder if its for cargo or passenger

b) if its for passengers; my guess is that it heads to London.

http://airlinersindia.s4.bizhat.com/air ... 8-280.html

FligtReporter · Sat Nov 13, 2021 2:32 am

So Im flying to the city of Wonders and heritage AGRA on new years thanks to 6E for commencing flights from my homebase to AGR however,I was wondering how come such a destination like AGR which is the most renowned Indian destination globally doesnt even have an independent Airport ?

Though this is not my first time flying to the beautiful AGR as I had flown to AGR back in 2017 onboard AI A319 VT-SCX on my flight to Khajuraho which was one of fhe best and most scenic fligts of my life..It was DEL - VNS - AGR - HJR...and Apart from HJR its AGR which is my favourite getaway destination for it has the beautiful Taj,Agra Fort and on a short ride south of the city is the gorgeous Fatehpur Sikri all 3 UNESCO World Heritage sites of which one is a Wonder !

Now on my 2017 trip Our plane parked at a tiny civil tarmac which has a small terminal but it can accomodate widebodies too for I have seen a 787-8 of TUI parked there and usually AGR does get these chartered flights but all of this makes me wonder how come the most renowned tourist destination doesnt have its own independent airport ?

And if not a full fledged independent airport I do think the gov should invest more to at least uograde the size of the present civil terminal like other Air force owned airfields like Prayagraj,Gorakhpur,Bareily,Kanpur and even Pune..for I feel there isnt gonna be any independent airport for AGR in future and tourists will have to only fly to this Defense aerodrome,to reach Agra.

highvoltageeee · Sat Nov 13, 2021 4:19 am

American took off from jfk

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL ... /KJFK/VIDP

edealinfo · Sat Nov 13, 2021 9:33 pm

edealinfo wrote:
highvoltageeee wrote:
American took off from jfk

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL ... /KJFK/VIDP

1. Wonder what the load was?

2. The flight was exactly 15 hours. For trips of 15 to 16 hours non stop is a 77W (as is the AA flight) or a 787 a better fit?

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