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lightsaber
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 12:26 pm

The one year timeline for the order is insane! That allows production planning for production, easy. The MAX, A220, and E2 could easily ramp production.
e.g., A220 pre-assembly building will be done allowing a production ramp, MAX and E2 have slack in capabilities. Airbus could ramp production earlier, in my opinion.

https://pilotvoice.org/2021/03/31/airbu ... ing-plant/

soyuz wrote:
I too cannot imagine the Fokkers being replaced by shiny new A220s or E2s. You can’t let such expensive planes fly one or two sectors per day and have them standing around the rest of the time.

Short term, I would expect Quantaslink to keep buying some used E190 for the opperations where utilization is too low to justify new build.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/QantasLink

However, eventually, whatever is bought, will age into the old roles and be far more fuel efficient. I agree a few sectors per day is best uses. However with Delta's planned 717 retirement, support just will not be there for the 717.

That said, I think for routes that are thin and need range, we'll see the A220. Just my hunch.

Lightsaber
 
JonesNL
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 12:31 pm

If production capacity/slots is no issue than this order seems Airbus to lose...
 
evanb
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:18 pm

lightsaber wrote:
T
Short term, I would expect Quantaslink to keep buying some used E190 for the opperations where utilization is too low to justify new build.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/QantasLink


The fleet of B717 and F100s are owned by Qantas and operated under the QantasLink brand, however, the E190s are wet leased from Alliance Airlines, and are not owned and operated by Qantas or QantasLink. It's possible that QantasLink does acquire E190s for the low utilisation ops, but that would be different to the current operational configuration. However, Alliance Airlines does have an awful lot of E190s coming online in the coming months.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:48 pm

I understand the unions have been for some time negotiating with QF over manual loading injuries, and I understand the compensation, lost time, and additional staff are not insignificant. Will see if that translates into the RFP at all.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:57 pm

Is the 737-800 replacement in this as well or is it just the regionals?
 
sxf24
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:58 pm

zeke wrote:
I understand the unions have been for some time negotiating with QF over manual loading injuries, and I understand the compensation, lost time, and additional staff are not insignificant. Will see if that translates into the RFP at all.


The fascination with this particular issue is baffling. The economical difference is insignificant when considering the cost of an aircraft and the investment to switch infrastructure.

I mean, airlines don’t consider flight or cabin crew working conditions or presences when making a decision.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:11 pm

While the attention is on A220s and E2s, I could see a short term strategy of more used 717s and Embraer 190s. Replacing the 25-30 year old Fokkers with lower cost used 15-20 year airplanes could work for 5-10 years.
 
texl1649
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:12 pm

keesje wrote:
I think the Fokkers and 717 were preferred for being less vunerable for FOD from the inland runways used.

Replacing them with E2s, NEO or MAX wouldnt really address that challenge.

Can't they find young CRJ900s until E3s become available?


Maybe, but on the Max/NEO/E2 etc, why can't one of the major mfg's come up with a 'screen' a la cigar era 737-200's which would work? I've just never understood how FOD couldn't be addressed now with the higher bypass engines (I get that they of course are dimensionally very different). Also, it's been more than a few years, can't the Aussies improve the inland fields a bit at this point to prevent such risks?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:21 pm

keesje wrote:
I think the Fokkers and 717 were preferred for being less vunerable for FOD from the inland runways used.

Replacing them with E2s, NEO or MAX wouldnt really address that challenge.

Can't they find young CRJ900s until E3s become available?


The E190s could be shifted to western Australia for FIFO operations if the need arises.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:24 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220.

In a perfect world yes... but depends on how soon they want them.

At this point, it's appears to more and more unlikely that an airline placing a large order, would get them less than a half-decade out.

Then again, considering how artificially stunted Australia's aviation market has been lately, maybe that could be a good thing.


I would also add the fact that, for Airbus to be competitive on this area, it would be another loss making A220 order... how many can they have? I am sure they are not making much money (if at all) on ITA's one and Air France's is probably narrow too.

Time will tell
 
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:43 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
I would also add the fact that, for Airbus to be competitive on this area, it would be another loss making A220 order... how many can they have? I am sure they are not making much money (if at all) on ITA's one and Air France's is probably narrow too.

So many more factors than just a direct loss (assuming the conclusions of the previous post) on the A220s though. If tossing in A220s helps swing the carrier to all-Airbus, then that's 20yrs+ of parts/service on A32X won-- as just one example.
 
FlyHPN
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 6:50 pm

Surprised no one has given the obvious solution yet: A221/223/225 :stirthepot:

/sarcasm
 
2175301
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:14 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
Surprised no one has given the obvious solution yet: A221/223/225 :stirthepot:

/sarcasm


you forgot to add the A227 to the list :)
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:06 pm

sxf24 wrote:
zeke wrote:
I understand the unions have been for some time negotiating with QF over manual loading injuries, and I understand the compensation, lost time, and additional staff are not insignificant. Will see if that translates into the RFP at all.


The fascination with this particular issue is baffling. The economical difference is insignificant when considering the cost of an aircraft and the investment to switch infrastructure.

I mean, airlines don’t consider flight or cabin crew working conditions or presences when making a decision.


This is also no longer relevant as during covid QF outsourced it’s ground handling - this now becomes the GHA issue to manage with unions not QFs.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:19 pm

smi0006 wrote:
This is also no longer relevant as during covid QF outsourced it’s ground handling - this now becomes the GHA issue to manage with unions not QFs.


Contracting out activities does not remove the responsibility, see this decision where a contract cleaner fell from a Qantaslink aircraft, it was QF that was held accountable https://www.worksafe.act.gov.au/__data/ ... ys-Ltd.pdf
 
smartplane
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:20 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
I would also add the fact that, for Airbus to be competitive on this area, it would be another loss making A220 order... how many can they have? I am sure they are not making much money (if at all) on ITA's one and Air France's is probably narrow too.

So many more factors than just a direct loss (assuming the conclusions of the previous post) on the A220s though. If tossing in A220s helps swing the carrier to all-Airbus, then that's 20yrs+ of parts/service on A32X won-- as just one example.

Sound words LAX.

The upfront, disclosed purchase price, is but a bit player in the total package deal.

Airbus have an advantage, because they hold pre-existing A32 family orders, and nearly pre-existing orders for the A35. If retrospective discounts on the new NB purchases are grouped with those existing orders, the effective unit price is lowered for the new AND already ordered / negotiated aircraft.

Given the A32 and A22 families are owned by the same management team, there will clearly be opportunities for a package deal, which might result in a rather high A22 disclosed price (Airbus are desperately trying to raise customer price expectations, after early giveaway Bombardier deals).

Boeing doesn't have as much wiggle room, because the Board is unlikely to want to match MAX compensation prices, for which the opportunity to order is rapidly closing. To offer QF a comparable compensation unit price after retrospective credits are deducted, will re-kindle expectations and demands from airlines which they have already said no to top up orders.

If Boeing could secure a Sunrise 787 / 777X deal, maybe, but Boeing have not long ago closed 787 compensation for the engine issues, and now are re-visiting for build issue delays, so hardly want further downward price pressure. And the 777X team almost certainly promised the Board, with the demise of the A380, they could lift unit prices (after credits), and look where that has got them?
 
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Oct 04, 2021 11:09 pm

smartplane wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
I would also add the fact that, for Airbus to be competitive on this area, it would be another loss making A220 order... how many can they have? I am sure they are not making much money (if at all) on ITA's one and Air France's is probably narrow too.

So many more factors than just a direct loss (assuming the conclusions of the previous post) on the A220s though. If tossing in A220s helps swing the carrier to all-Airbus, then that's 20yrs+ of parts/service on A32X won-- as just one example.

Sound words LAX.

The upfront, disclosed purchase price, is but a bit player in the total package deal.

Airbus have an advantage, because they hold pre-existing A32 family orders, and nearly pre-existing orders for the A35. If retrospective discounts on the new NB purchases are grouped with those existing orders, the effective unit price is lowered for the new AND already ordered / negotiated aircraft.

Given the A32 and A22 families are owned by the same management team, there will clearly be opportunities for a package deal, which might result in a rather high A22 disclosed price (Airbus are desperately trying to raise customer price expectations, after early giveaway Bombardier deals).

Boeing doesn't have as much wiggle room, because the Board is unlikely to want to match MAX compensation prices, for which the opportunity to order is rapidly closing. To offer QF a comparable compensation unit price after retrospective credits are deducted, will re-kindle expectations and demands from airlines which they have already said no to top up orders.

If Boeing could secure a Sunrise 787 / 777X deal, maybe, but Boeing have not long ago closed 787 compensation for the engine issues, and now are re-rolevisiting for build issue delays, so hardly want further downward price pressure. And the 777X team almost certainly promised the Board, with the demise of the A380, they could lift unit prices (after credits), and look where that has got them?

This is going to be a facinating deal. The A350LR or 778 might play a role, but I suspect that is for later.

https://worldairlinenews.com/2021/10/04 ... -100s/amp/

The order notes 73Gs might be involved. I personally believe more used E19x would be considered. However, for high utilization, I see new aircraft paying off. The 20 717s won't have parts available forever. The 18 Fokkers are ready for replacement.

This will be an interesting year of debate.

Lightsaber
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 12:04 am

The A350LR or 778 might play a role, but I suspect that is for later

I doubt it; as far as anyone can tell, QF have made their decision in favour of the A350-1000LR and are now waiting for more certainty with international travel before placing a formal order. There is no indication that they have any interest in reopening the selection process.

The NB order is sufficiently large to exist on its own. I tend to think QF will go with the A32X but if Boeing can offer better terms and delivery schedules they are still very much in with a chance.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:18 am

tullamarine wrote:
The A350LR or 778 might play a role, but I suspect that is for later

I doubt it; as far as anyone can tell, QF have made their decision in favour of the A350-1000LR and are now waiting for more certainty with international travel before placing a formal order. There is no indication that they have any interest in reopening the selection process.

The NB order is sufficiently large to exist on its own. I tend to think QF will go with the A32X but if Boeing can offer better terms and delivery schedules they are still very much in with a chance.


Regarding the A350 I totaly aggree with you. I`ve even seen MSN numbers allocated for Qantas but can`t find the source, so take it as opinion.
The NB order is an interesting thing to watch !
 
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qf789
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:20 am

Now confirmed, order will be for over100 aircraft with first delivery from late 2023, decision will beads by the end of this year with firm orders placed by mid 2022

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -jet-fleet
 
Cardude2
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:28 am

lightsaber wrote:
smartplane wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
So many more factors than just a direct loss (assuming the conclusions of the previous post) on the A220s though. If tossing in A220s helps swing the carrier to all-Airbus, then that's 20yrs+ of parts/service on A32X won-- as just one example.

Sound words LAX.

The upfront, disclosed purchase price, is but a bit player in the total package deal.

Airbus have an advantage, because they hold pre-existing A32 family orders, and nearly pre-existing orders for the A35. If retrospective discounts on the new NB purchases are grouped with those existing orders, the effective unit price is lowered for the new AND already ordered / negotiated aircraft.

Given the A32 and A22 families are owned by the same management team, there will clearly be opportunities for a package deal, which might result in a rather high A22 disclosed price (Airbus are desperately trying to raise customer price expectations, after early giveaway Bombardier deals).

Boeing doesn't have as much wiggle room, because the Board is unlikely to want to match MAX compensation prices, for which the opportunity to order is rapidly closing. To offer QF a comparable compensation unit price after retrospective credits are deducted, will re-kindle expectations and demands from airlines which they have already said no to top up orders.

If Boeing could secure a Sunrise 787 / 777X deal, maybe, but Boeing have not long ago closed 787 compensation for the engine issues, and now are re-rolevisiting for build issue delays, so hardly want further downward price pressure. And the 777X team almost certainly promised the Board, with the demise of the A380, they could lift unit prices (after credits), and look where that has got them?

This is going to be a facinating deal. The A350LR or 778 might play a role, but I suspect that is for later.

https://worldairlinenews.com/2021/10/04 ... -100s/amp/

The order notes 73Gs might be involved. I personally believe more used E19x would be considered. However, for high utilization, I see new aircraft paying off. The 20 717s won't have parts available forever. The 18 Fokkers are ready for replacement.

This will be an interesting year of debate.

Lightsaber

Thank you voice of reason
 
Cardude2
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:41 am

Interesting statement said by Allan Joyce on this matter in simple flying today.
“This is a long-term renewal plan with deliveries and payments spread over ten years, starting in FY23, but the equally long lead time means we need to make these decisions soon, our approach is always to have the right aircraft on the right route, which really means balancing the size of the aircraft with the demand in each market. The mix of aircraft we’re considering means we’ll have more operational flexibility, which for customers translates into more direct routes to smaller regional centers and more choice of flights throughout the day.” -Allan Joyce
https://simpleflying.com/qantas-confirm ... t-renewal/
 
Queenslander
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:42 am

My guess is 737max8/10 on a 1 for 1 replacement with the NG. I can’t see any reason why you would go thru the complexities of retraining and entire mainline pilot group.
I think the regional replacement will be shelved for the moment and a mix of JQ 320 used 319 to replace the 717 of F100. There is no justification in operating new aircraft at such low utilisation.
I think an order for 20+ 321Xlr for thin international routes operated by a Qantas owned entity rather than mainline considering QFs current cost cutting measures could be on the cards.
 
sibibom
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:25 am

qf789 wrote:
Now confirmed, order will be for over100 aircraft with first delivery from late 2023, decision will beads by the end of this year with firm orders placed by mid 2022

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -jet-fleet


"It's only once in a generation you go through a major fleet renewal like this," said Qantas Group CEO Alan Joyce. "This is a really strategic decision for our future."

Alan Joyce knows the art of selling, first Project Sunrise, now Projet Winston..."biggish" order but the media coverage more than a mega order...nevertheless interesting words. (My money would bet on A220 for sure....now Max v/s Neo will be interesting)
 
Cardude2
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:39 am

My money is on a220-100, it’s perfect for their rough operation. And if that’s true then the A320 neo is a more likely candidate if offered in package
 
melpax
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:59 am

The A350 looks like a done deal, looks like they want to start Sunrise flights in the second half of 2023

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 58x9i.html

Wouldn't be a suprise if the 717's were sent to WA to replace the Fokkers for a few years once the new replacements start being delivered, which will likely be initially placed on the East Coast. Though if spares & support start becoming an issue, delivery schedules will probably be sped up.
Last edited by melpax on Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Cardude2
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:02 am

melpax wrote:
The A350 looks like a done deal, looks like they want to start Sunrise flights in the second half of 2023

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 58x9i.html

Wouldn't be a suprise if the 717's were sent to WA to replace the Fokkers for a few years once the new replacements start being delivered, and placed on the East Coast. Though if spares & support start becoming an issue, delivery schedules will probably be sped up.


Slight problem, what’s going to be the temporary replacement for the 717’s while we wait for a220s? I think of the alliance Ex COPA e190s are accounted for.
 
Cardude2
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:03 am

Also is it the A350s along with sunrise operation kind of retiring a380s?
 
Pcoder
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:09 am

One of the considerations must be how their network will operate in the future. In the past a 717 type aircraft could only fly a few thousand kilometres and couldn't cover all domestic routes. Now with the new generation of Regional jets E2 and A220, most of Qantas domestic network can be handled by them. I could see them go for a combo of E2/A220 and a larger narrowbody (A321N/737-10) for capacity and largely skipping the 737-8s and A320Ns (maybe a couple of orders).

With the new airport at Sydney west, and a lot of thin routes that they might want to continue post pandemic (HBA-PER) and even increase frequencies, A increase in A220/E2 type aircraft could be a wise direction to head.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:11 am

Qantas would likely get a better deal on A220 if they chose the A320neo/A321neo for the mainline.

We already know they will operate Airbus in the future regardless of what the outcome of this deal is. They have 36 A321XLR on order and Jetstar is already a large Airbus operator.

Qantas is a bit like Delta. They want the right aircraft for each route. So it would not surprise me if they chose to order from both Boeing and Airbus. 737-8 and A321neo + either A220 or E2.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:11 am

Cardude2 wrote:
melpax wrote:
The A350 looks like a done deal, looks like they want to start Sunrise flights in the second half of 2023

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 58x9i.html

Wouldn't be a suprise if the 717's were sent to WA to replace the Fokkers for a few years once the new replacements start being delivered, and placed on the East Coast. Though if spares & support start becoming an issue, delivery schedules will probably be sped up.


Slight problem, what’s going to be the temporary replacement for the 717’s while we wait for a220s? I think of the alliance Ex COPA e190s are accounted for.

The F100s can still operate for a few years yet so, even if the 717s become their replacement, there is time to wait for whatever would replace the 717s on the east coast. In the short term, there is also the likelihood that more ex-JQ A320s will enter the FIFO markets as these older planes start to be replaced by the new A320NEOs arriving from next year.
 
melpax
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:26 am

Cardude2 wrote:
melpax wrote:

Slight problem, what’s going to be the temporary replacement for the 717’s while we wait for a220s? I think of the alliance Ex COPA e190s are accounted for.


Given the delivery timeline for whatever they choose for the 717 & Fokker replacement (A220/E-Jet) is late 2023 to 3031, the initial batch of aircraft would most likely be placed on the East Coast routes currently done by the 717's. This would start freeing up 717's to be sent over to WA to replace the Fokkers for a few years until the balance of the order is delivered. As others have said, no point putting new builds on low-utilisation FIFO work if there's an alternative. Though as I said, things might change if spares & support start being an issue.

Longer term, the A350 will be the A380 replacement, but the 380 still has it's place for now, will proably be mainly used on MEL/SYD - LAX & SIN runs going forward. The ones that will still be in service have also had revamped interiors so will remain in service at least until the end of the decade.
Last edited by melpax on Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:27 am

Qantas would likely get a better deal on A220 if they chose the A320neo/A321neo for the mainline.

Hard to say. Airbus has good backlog on both. I don't think they would want to unnecessarily loss-lead on either.

We already know they will operate Airbus in the future regardless of what the outcome of this deal is. They have 36 A321XLR on order and Jetstar is already a large Airbus operator

We know they will operate both Boeing and Airbus for the foreseeable future. They have never shown much interest in building their fleet with just one OEM.

Qantas is a bit like Delta. They want the right aircraft for each route. So it would not surprise me if they chose to order from both Boeing and Airbus. 737-8 and A321neo + either A220 or E2.

Unlike DL, the case for having 2 candidates in the same market sector is hard to justify. When you have 300 of each, you have economies of scale with both. The maths don't work so well at 30-40 of each.

The real strength of the A321XLR will be its ability to do the long thin international routes so I think there is no doubt some of these will end up flying for QF International even if the maintenance is effectively outsourced to JQ. This doesn't mean the 737MAX is out of contention to replace the existing 738 domestic fleet.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:35 am

Queenslander wrote:
My guess is 737max8/10 on a 1 for 1 replacement with the NG. I can’t see any reason why you would go thru the complexities of retraining and entire mainline pilot group.


Remember that JQ operates A320/A321neo aircraft, and QF is already getting up to 36 A321XLRs. So going to the A321neo family makes sense as a way to develop some group-wide efficiencies that could easily outweigh the retraining costs.

I think an order for 20+ 321Xlr for thin international routes operated by a Qantas owned entity rather than mainline considering QFs current cost cutting measures could be on the cards.


That's already on the way, but for QF mainline.
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:44 am

My hunch is telling me this order will be for Boeing to win. Boeing has a good run with QF with B737 since B737-400 days and I don't see that why would they want to fix something that is not broken. They would want to maintain a good working relationship with both Airbus and Boeing. Since Jetstar is mainly Airbus, this order will somehow go to the latter. Perhaps MAX + E2 combination??
 
Cardude2
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:50 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
My hunch is telling me this order will be for Boeing to win. Boeing has a good run with QF with B737 since B737-400 days and I don't see that why would they want to fix something that is not broken. They would want to maintain a good working relationship with both Airbus and Boeing. Since Jetstar is mainly Airbus, this order will somehow go to the latter. Perhaps MAX + E2 combination??


That would be true if Boeing actually did the merger with embrear. Instead the options are Boeing and embrear As separate deals with separate discounts, or a big deal with airbus. Because of that fact it leans more likely in the Airbus favor
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 4:32 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Queenslander wrote:
My guess is 737max8/10 on a 1 for 1 replacement with the NG. I can’t see any reason why you would go thru the complexities of retraining and entire mainline pilot group.


Remember that JQ operates A320/A321neo aircraft, and QF is already getting up to 36 A321XLRs. So going to the A321neo family makes sense as a way to develop some group-wide efficiencies that could easily outweigh the retraining costs.

I think an order for 20+ 321Xlr for thin international routes operated by a Qantas owned entity rather than mainline considering QFs current cost cutting measures could be on the cards.


That's already on the way, but for QF mainline.


Agreed not to mention - can’t see the re-training costs being super high if deliveries are spread over ten years. Surely over a decade lots of 737 Cap/FO would move around to 330s 789 and 350, can’t see 320 training being an issue, especially with 321XLR on the way and cadet ships in place for QFLink then to mainline.

Besides this is QF they will probs only recruit new hires on a B-Scale 320 mid-haul contract to reduce labour costs, separating them from legacy 737 short haul pilots.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:59 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Qantas would likely get a better deal on A220 if they chose the A320neo/A321neo for the mainline.

We already know they will operate Airbus in the future regardless of what the outcome of this deal is. They have 36 A321XLR on order and Jetstar is already a large Airbus operator.

Qantas is a bit like Delta. They want the right aircraft for each route. So it would not surprise me if they chose to order from both Boeing and Airbus. 737-8 and A321neo + either A220 or E2.


I think those 36 A321XLR are for the QF group, not confirmed if they are for mainline is it yet?

I agree 737-8, A321 of some sort and E2 is my pick.

A321LR for SYD/MEL/BNE triangle, some PER flying, thinner Asian routes and Trans Tasman. 737-8 for thinner domestic routes not needing additional capacity. Almost a case where something a little smaller for mainline could be good for thinner routes, I think 717s do a bit of flying on some mainline routes?
 
rbavfan
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:37 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
For mainline, this sounds as though it should be B38M and B3XM, going to smaller planes on transcon...and the MAX 10 can be configured to exactly 200 seats with a domestic first class. For Link, I would be surprised if the E290 doesn't win out. The BCS1 is too large a plane and the BCS3 is A319-sized.

While the OP doesn't address the issue directly, the DH8B and DH8C fleet isn't getting any younger. This is where DHC needs to show if it will resume production of the DH8B/C along with the -D. If so, then new-build DH8Cs could be in play. Otherwise, I see the AT46 as being a replacement for the 20-strong DH8B/C fleet.

A real wild card would be if Airbus offers a package deal of the AT46 (with options to upgrade to the AT76)/BCS1/A20N/A21N.


I do believe Australia requires 1 FA per 36 passengers, not the 1 per 50 of the US market. Thus exactly 200 seats is useless.
 
a320fan
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:33 am

rbavfan wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
For mainline, this sounds as though it should be B38M and B3XM, going to smaller planes on transcon...and the MAX 10 can be configured to exactly 200 seats with a domestic first class. For Link, I would be surprised if the E290 doesn't win out. The BCS1 is too large a plane and the BCS3 is A319-sized.

While the OP doesn't address the issue directly, the DH8B and DH8C fleet isn't getting any younger. This is where DHC needs to show if it will resume production of the DH8B/C along with the -D. If so, then new-build DH8Cs could be in play. Otherwise, I see the AT46 as being a replacement for the 20-strong DH8B/C fleet.

A real wild card would be if Airbus offers a package deal of the AT46 (with options to upgrade to the AT76)/BCS1/A20N/A21N.


I do believe Australia requires 1 FA per 36 passengers, not the 1 per 50 of the US market. Thus exactly 200 seats is useless.


I believe that is the legislated ratio, but all if not close to all airlines have an exemption to run 1/50.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:01 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
I would also add the fact that, for Airbus to be competitive on this area, it would be another loss making A220 order... how many can they have? I am sure they are not making much money (if at all) on ITA's one and Air France's is probably narrow too.

So many more factors than just a direct loss (assuming the conclusions of the previous post) on the A220s though. If tossing in A220s helps swing the carrier to all-Airbus, then that's 20yrs+ of parts/service on A32X won-- as just one example.


I would agree but I wonder how much margin they (Airbus) would then end up doing on the other frames (A350, A32X, etc...) on the deal. I am not sure the margins they usually do at present but must be narrow. I know you mention the 20 years caveat here but, consistently doing such a deal will make Airbus much more reliant on EU Funding which might not be readily available in the future.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:08 am

lightsaber wrote:
smartplane wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
So many more factors than just a direct loss (assuming the conclusions of the previous post) on the A220s though. If tossing in A220s helps swing the carrier to all-Airbus, then that's 20yrs+ of parts/service on A32X won-- as just one example.

Sound words LAX.

The upfront, disclosed purchase price, is but a bit player in the total package deal.

Airbus have an advantage, because they hold pre-existing A32 family orders, and nearly pre-existing orders for the A35. If retrospective discounts on the new NB purchases are grouped with those existing orders, the effective unit price is lowered for the new AND already ordered / negotiated aircraft.

Given the A32 and A22 families are owned by the same management team, there will clearly be opportunities for a package deal, which might result in a rather high A22 disclosed price (Airbus are desperately trying to raise customer price expectations, after early giveaway Bombardier deals).

Boeing doesn't have as much wiggle room, because the Board is unlikely to want to match MAX compensation prices, for which the opportunity to order is rapidly closing. To offer QF a comparable compensation unit price after retrospective credits are deducted, will re-kindle expectations and demands from airlines which they have already said no to top up orders.

If Boeing could secure a Sunrise 787 / 777X deal, maybe, but Boeing have not long ago closed 787 compensation for the engine issues, and now are re-rolevisiting for build issue delays, so hardly want further downward price pressure. And the 777X team almost certainly promised the Board, with the demise of the A380, they could lift unit prices (after credits), and look where that has got them?

This is going to be a facinating deal. The A350LR or 778 might play a role, but I suspect that is for later.

https://worldairlinenews.com/2021/10/04 ... -100s/amp/

The order notes 73Gs might be involved. I personally believe more used E19x would be considered. However, for high utilization, I see new aircraft paying off. The 20 717s won't have parts available forever. The 18 Fokkers are ready for replacement.

This will be an interesting year of debate.

Lightsaber


Anyone knows when a decision is expected in the end: I saw some of our colleagues here asking but no clear answer apart from the 12 month speculation. I feel that this might play a key role on the decision related to Qanta´s need at that time for the frames (clear timeline).

Lightsaber might be correct in regards to used E190s replacing the Fokkers since it is not a significant number and there~s must be plewnty of used E190s in the market in good condition to provide for these.

I am not so sure on the B778 because it seems to going the same direction as the A350-800 (never saw one...) and the B787-8 (quite a good frame but no longer commanding orders...).

An interesting thought - if Embraer manages to put their new turboprop into production soon and manages to provide a good delivery schedule, that might be interesting. You might say is such a long shot but they seem to have finally defined the project. If this tender lasts just enough for they have a shot, you never know... Long shot but you may just wonder...
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8785
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:18 am

a320fan wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
For mainline, this sounds as though it should be B38M and B3XM, going to smaller planes on transcon...and the MAX 10 can be configured to exactly 200 seats with a domestic first class. For Link, I would be surprised if the E290 doesn't win out. The BCS1 is too large a plane and the BCS3 is A319-sized.

While the OP doesn't address the issue directly, the DH8B and DH8C fleet isn't getting any younger. This is where DHC needs to show if it will resume production of the DH8B/C along with the -D. If so, then new-build DH8Cs could be in play. Otherwise, I see the AT46 as being a replacement for the 20-strong DH8B/C fleet.

A real wild card would be if Airbus offers a package deal of the AT46 (with options to upgrade to the AT76)/BCS1/A20N/A21N.


I do believe Australia requires 1 FA per 36 passengers, not the 1 per 50 of the US market. Thus exactly 200 seats is useless.


I believe that is the legislated ratio, but all if not close to all airlines have an exemption to run 1/50.


The exemptions to 1:37 isn’t actually a flat 1:50, it’s a case by case analysis. Either way, a 199 or 200 seat 737 would almost certainly receive an exemption for 4 crew, as with four main doors it is materially similar in terms of emergency evacuation workload as a 737-800 or A320.

Nonetheless, Qantas will probably need 5 crew on a 200 seat aircraft for short dinner flights (they have only reduced to 4 crew on such flights on the 737-800 post-Covid), in which case you might as go for 210+ seats on an A321.

I was initially thinking this was a bit of a coin toss, but Joyce’s comment about getting the right aircraft for the right market has made me think they could be looking at a A223/A321 mix. The latter with a domestic business class will be perfect for the triangle, DRW, CNS, AKL, maybe daytime PER, and allow flexibility with the XLR fleet for Asia and PER red eyes. The former will be perfect for anything touching CBR or ADL, as well as more niche transcon and midcons like PER-HBA, SYD/MEL/BNE-BME etc. Just because the 737-800 is the backbone of their domestic fleet doesn’t mean that it is the optimal aircraft for them per se.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:16 am

Jomar777 wrote:
[nd the B787-8 (quite a good frame but no longer commanding orders...)

Don't know if we can make that claim just yet...

AA placed a decent order for them in 2018, and in the time since, a few have trickled in here and there, including this year.

We'll have to wait and see when demand actually recovers, before writing its epitaph.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:29 am

What I personally think is interesting is that if QF choose the A220 or E2, then they’ll have planes with P&W engines in the fleet. I’m struggling to think of when they used Pratt & Whitney, if at all. Happy to stand corrected if your memories are better than mine.

Personally I see the A320/321 as a better fit to replace the B738. Whilst Boeing do have competitive offerings, I think the better performance of the Airbus, especially the A321, in hot and humid conditions, is a bonus for airports like TSV, CNS, DRW during their busy summer times. It appears to me, that the 7M9 and 7MX needs a long runway.

The A221 seems like a logical replacement of the 717 in terms of capacity. And obviously, commonality with the A223, means they potentially have an ace to play for routes like MCY/NTL to AKL. What I’d love to know is the operating economics of the A220 versus the E2.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:24 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
While the attention is on A220s and E2s, I could see a short term strategy of more used 717s and Embraer 190s. Replacing the 25-30 year old Fokkers with lower cost used 15-20 year airplanes could work for 5-10 years.


A wild card here is that Alliance is set to grow its Embraer fleet to 32 planes. It still has 20 more E190s to induct, all of which will be owned by Alliance. I have to wonder if Qantas could look at the 49 E195s operated by Azul as they exit the fleet in 2024-5. (The 30 owned jetBlue E190s were eliminated as an option as jetBlue likely will fly them to end of life; 29 of them are 13.5 years or newer and the 30th is almost 18 years old.)
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8105
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:30 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
What I personally think is interesting is that if QF choose the A220 or E2, then they’ll have planes with P&W engines in the fleet. I’m struggling to think of when they used Pratt & Whitney, if at all. Happy to stand corrected if your memories are better than mine.

Personally I see the A320/321 as a better fit to replace the B738. Whilst Boeing do have competitive offerings, I think the better performance of the Airbus, especially the A321, in hot and humid conditions, is a bonus for airports like TSV, CNS, DRW during their busy summer times. It appears to me, that the 7M9 and 7MX needs a long runway.

The A221 seems like a logical replacement of the 717 in terms of capacity. And obviously, commonality with the A223, means they potentially have an ace to play for routes like MCY/NTL to AKL. What I’d love to know is the operating economics of the A220 versus the E2.


QF's early 742s were PW, they later switched to RR, also their 762s were PW.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 642
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:38 am

smi0006 wrote:

Agreed not to mention - can’t see the re-training costs being super high if deliveries are spread over ten years. Surely over a decade lots of 737 Cap/FO would move around to 330s 789 and 350, can’t see 320 training being an issue, especially with 321XLR on the way and cadet ships in place for QFLink then to mainline.


It’s more having two separate fleet types running concurrently, don’t forget the deliveries go through to 2034, so approx half the existing 737s are retained. You’ve then got to double up on pilots, engineering, cabin crew, reserve coverage, spare parts, scheduling for 10 years. And you lose flexibility as well, currently having the ability to jump from one 737 to another quickly is crucial in a tightly scheduled OTP environment, can’t do it if crews aren’t endorsed on the same aircraft.

Besides this is QF they will probs only recruit new hires on a B-Scale 320 mid-haul contract to reduce labour costs, separating them from legacy 737 short haul pilots.


If it were that easy every business in the country would do it overnight. Thankfully we have strict transmission of business laws. Plus the existing QF domestic contract is actually quite efficient, pilots get paid almost a per hour basis to what they fly with little waste. Per hour flown it’s actually more efficient than the VA pilot contract.

If QF we’re going to outsource it would’ve been for the 787 and 350 crewing but they declined to do so.

Plus with the early retirement of several hundred pilots, and international flying about to go gangbusters again those B scale operators are very shortly going to be finding it difficult to recruit new crew.
 
qf002
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:43 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
I was initially thinking this was a bit of a coin toss, but Joyce’s comment about getting the right aircraft for the right market has made me think they could be looking at a A223/A321 mix. T


I agree. Remembering that they will still have the 738 in the fleet for another decade (likely longer), it would make a lot of sense to me for the initial order to bookend the 738 above and below, with flexibility built into the order to take later deliveries in whatever size makes the most sense at the time.

Clearly this gives Airbus a huge advantage given they can offer that sort of flexibility across the full 100-220 seat spectrum, and across all of QF's various divisions.

No doubt Boeing will fight hard, but I suspect will have to settle for the consolation prize of another dozen 787s.
 
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Chipmunk1973
Posts: 453
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:58 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
QF's early 742s were PW, they later switched to RR, also their 762s were PW.



Cool, thanks for that. I wonder why they switched.

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