Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 5317
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:34 am

melpax wrote:
Wouldn't be a suprise if the 717's were sent to WA to replace the Fokkers for a few years once the new replacements start being delivered, which will likely be initially placed on the East Coast. Though if spares & support start becoming an issue, delivery schedules will probably be sped up.


Yes, the tender is for Boeing 737 and Boeing 717 replacement only. No mention of the Fokker aircraft, so you might be right, that the 717s get redeployed.

If not, I wonder if Hawaiian might want them, as the ones in Australia should be in good condition operating around dry Australia vs the islands of Hawaii... though I think HA are planning to retire theirs in the next few years too, so maybe they'll all just end up scrapped or as you say, Fokker replacements.
 
CBBW
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:29 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:36 am

Apparently Joyce has been exceedinly effusive about the A220 but said it’s too expensive. I’m not sure if Airbus has been able to lower the cost but if they have, or can offer a compelling enough package deal with the neo, I expect it will be favoured. It will be interesting to see how this goes.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10204
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:53 am

tullamarine wrote:
Qantas is a bit like Delta. They want the right aircraft for each route. So it would not surprise me if they chose to order from both Boeing and Airbus. 737-8 and A321neo + either A220 or E2.

Unlike DL, the case for having 2 candidates in the same market sector is hard to justify. When you have 300 of each, you have economies of scale with both. The maths don't work so well at 30-40 of each.


That was my thinking.

Joyce's 'right aircraft on the right route' suggests he's willing to tolerate some fleet complexity which will build in structural costs. That is counter to a DL/AA/ULCC trend where simplicity is recognized as a benefit. It's not just parts but training, substitution, and avg labor utilization.

If you want a non-stop MEL-DRW you need a plane with (minimum) 3,100km range. You can't fudge that (other than by weakening revenue from skipping freight, or by seat blocks). You can fudge seat capacity, though: just increase or decrease frequency. That's the way ULCCs do it, in Europe as well as North America.

Talk of A220s and Es or E2s just sounds crazy to me. Even presuming the Fokkers are quickly removed, 717/E2/A220/737/A320/A330/787/A350/A380 (further fragmented by multiple operators) in a fleet of just ~300 aircraft? Wow. AA has four types in a fleet of ~900 (and no less network complexity), and just three more in a regional fleet of almost 600.
 
OffTheRails
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:49 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 12:37 pm

One of the worlds safest airlines ordering the Boeing 737Max. I wonder how much consideration Boeing will put that into their offer?
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16456
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:46 pm

smi0006 wrote:
Besides this is QF they will probs only recruit new hires on a B-Scale 320 mid-haul contract to reduce labour costs, separating them from legacy 737 short haul pilots.


In Australia every employee would be on the same agreement within the same airline, the only way they can run different pay scales is via different airlines. This is why there is Qantas, Express Freighters, National Jet, Qantaslink, Jetstar etc

MIflyer12 wrote:
Talk of A220s and Es or E2s just sounds crazy to me. Even presuming the Fokkers are quickly removed, 717/E2/A220/737/A320/A330/787/A350/A380 (further fragmented by multiple operators) in a fleet of just ~300 aircraft? Wow. AA has four types in a fleet of ~900 (and no less network complexity), and just three more in a regional fleet of almost 600.


The aircraft are being looked at by the QF group, however it is unlikely most of them will be operated by QF, they would be operated by what is now known as NJS or QLK. Between them they have
10 x A320 - 180 seats
28 x B717 - 125 seats (some are configured 2 class 110 seats)
15 x F100 - 100 seats
40 x DHC8 36-74 seats

If you look at the NJS/QLK jet fleets, the E190-E2 or A220-100 would be a good fit to replace the F100, the E195-E2 or A220-100/A220-300 could replace the B717. Then in the corner is the yet to be built A220-500 which could see itself in a 160 seat configuration to replace the A320. So it would be possible for them to reduce the number of jet types from 3 to 1. I would also expect at some stage expect to see a turboprop replacement.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2667
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:22 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

Agreed not to mention - can’t see the re-training costs being super high if deliveries are spread over ten years. Surely over a decade lots of 737 Cap/FO would move around to 330s 789 and 350, can’t see 320 training being an issue, especially with 321XLR on the way and cadet ships in place for QFLink then to mainline.


It’s more having two separate fleet types running concurrently, don’t forget the deliveries go through to 2034, so approx half the existing 737s are retained. You’ve then got to double up on pilots, engineering, cabin crew, reserve coverage, spare parts, scheduling for 10 years. And you lose flexibility as well, currently having the ability to jump from one 737 to another quickly is crucial in a tightly scheduled OTP environment, can’t do it if crews aren’t endorsed on the same aircraft.

Besides this is QF they will probs only recruit new hires on a B-Scale 320 mid-haul contract to reduce labour costs, separating them from legacy 737 short haul pilots.


If it were that easy every business in the country would do it overnight. Thankfully we have strict transmission of business laws. Plus the existing QF domestic contract is actually quite efficient, pilots get paid almost a per hour basis to what they fly with little waste. Per hour flown it’s actually more efficient than the VA pilot contract.

If QF we’re going to outsource it would’ve been for the 787 and 350 crewing but they declined to do so.

Plus with the early retirement of several hundred pilots, and international flying about to go gangbusters again those B scale operators are very shortly going to be finding it difficult to recruit new crew.


Sorry I was talking specifically to retraining costs - agree there is some duplication in some areas but training cost aren’t insurmountable. 330/767 whilst smaller numbers comes to mind.

With regard to IR I wasn’t suggesting outsource, but a new EBA for the new fleet. QF have this in a lot of their current workout groups already. No it’s not easy, but as I said - QF have made it their mission to cut all previous EBA to the bone, even those that are already efficient.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2667
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:29 pm

zeke wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
Besides this is QF they will probs only recruit new hires on a B-Scale 320 mid-haul contract to reduce labour costs, separating them from legacy 737 short haul pilots.


In Australia every employee would be on the same agreement within the same airline, the only way they can run different pay scales is via different airlines. This is why there is Qantas, Express Freighters, National Jet, Qantaslink, Jetstar etc

MIflyer12 wrote:
Talk of A220s and Es or E2s just sounds crazy to me. Even presuming the Fokkers are quickly removed, 717/E2/A220/737/A320/A330/787/A350/A380 (further fragmented by multiple operators) in a fleet of just ~300 aircraft? Wow. AA has four types in a fleet of ~900 (and no less network complexity), and just three more in a regional fleet of almost 600.


The aircraft are being looked at by the QF group, however it is unlikely most of them will be operated by QF, they would be operated by what is now known as NJS or QLK. Between them they have
10 x A320 - 180 seats
28 x B717 - 125 seats (some are configured 2 class 110 seats)
15 x F100 - 100 seats
40 x DHC8 36-74 seats

If you look at the NJS/QLK jet fleets, the E190-E2 or A220-100 would be a good fit to replace the F100, the E195-E2 or A220-100/A220-300 could replace the B717. Then in the corner is the yet to be built A220-500 which could see itself in a 160 seat configuration to replace the A320. So it would be possible for them to reduce the number of jet types from 3 to 1. I would also expect at some stage expect to see a turboprop replacement.


Sorry, that’s not true. Currently front of house ground staff have a B-Scale, in addition to this they also have Qantas’s Ground Services. Previously it would be offered as an option during EBA negotiations - agree to a B-Scale or we’ll reduce the conditions of your award, but it was often voted down, and then to your point a fully owned subsidiary would be greater. Cabin crew is a better example than the airlines flagged - QCCA,QCCD and QCCUK -fully owned employment subsidiaries, but effective B-scale. They don’t have their open operations or AOC. I know of a few other organisations who I’ve introduced this also.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 642
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:07 pm

smi0006 wrote:

Sorry I was talking specifically to retraining costs - agree there is some duplication in some areas but training cost aren’t insurmountable. 330/767 whilst smaller numbers comes to mind.


Retraining is one thing, but to go from 737 to A320 you first need to retrain half your instructors for 3 months to get them endorsed on type, then get them some operational line flying experience. Then you pull off your existing crew for three months to retrain them Boeing to Airbus. If it’s the MAX the retraining takes one day, and maybe a week’s worth for the instructors. As they are dual qualified MAX/NG they continue to train and check on both types simultaneously.

With regard to IR I wasn’t suggesting outsource, but a new EBA for the new fleet. QF have this in a lot of their current workout groups already. No it’s not easy, but as I said - QF have made it their mission to cut all previous EBA to the bone, even those that are already efficient.


Actually the revised conditions for the 787 and 350 were a part of the existing long haul international pilots EBA. In some ways there were advantages to the pilots of these aircraft, and most of the efficiency gains were a cutback to cruise relief pilot conditions. If you knew how much Captains and F/Os were being paid on the 787/350 you could hardly say they were “cut to the bone”.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10204
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:35 pm

zeke wrote:
If you look at the NJS/QLK jet fleets, the E190-E2 or A220-100 would be a good fit to replace the F100, the E195-E2 or A220-100/A220-300 could replace the B717. Then in the corner is the yet to be built A220-500 which could see itself in a 160 seat configuration to replace the A320. So it would be possible for them to reduce the number of jet types from 3 to 1. I would also expect at some stage expect to see a turboprop replacement.


Using a mooted 225 (talk about paper airplanes!) to replace A320s seems a rather marginal benefit: they're still going to have 321s (and MAXs that compete very well in the ~160 seat class). But, yes, using E2s OR A220s to replace both F100s and 717s seems prudent (and they could probably put the range to use).
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8786
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:25 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
With regard to IR I wasn’t suggesting outsource, but a new EBA for the new fleet. QF have this in a lot of their current workout groups already. No it’s not easy, but as I said - QF have made it their mission to cut all previous EBA to the bone, even those that are already efficient.


Actually the revised conditions for the 787 and 350 were a part of the existing long haul international pilots EBA. In some ways there were advantages to the pilots of these aircraft, and most of the efficiency gains were a cutback to cruise relief pilot conditions. If you knew how much Captains and F/Os were being paid on the 787/350 you could hardly say they were “cut to the bone”.


787 (and future A350) captains and FOs nonetheless receive inferior pay (and - more specifically - conditions) than A380 (and previously 747) pilots. The biggest ‘efficiency’ saving was changes to ‘overtime’ payments for 14+ hour flights (I believe it’s now 19 hours on the new fleets?). When even MEL-LAX and SYD-DFW are triggering overtime, that condition was a relic of a bygone era before ULH aircraft. Obviously that’s a massive saving to the company on routes like PER-LHR and future Sunrise routes, which is why they tied both the 787 order, and then A350 RFP, to the pilots accepting those terms.

As an aside, QCCA is also incorporated into the International Division Flight Attendant EBA.

Am I right in thinking there is no such thing as ‘QCCD’, and it’s just short hand for ‘Category D’ flight attendants hired on casual contracts through MAM? I assume that moving forward Qantas would like all domestic flight attendants to be casual/contractor, as is already the case with NJS and Jetstar (Jetstar new hires at least, Jetstar actually have legacy flight attendants from Impulse, Australian Airlines, even Qantas’ former Cairns base, who are on fairly generous contracts).
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16456
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:04 am

smi0006 wrote:
Sorry, that’s not true. Currently front of house ground staff have a B-Scale, in addition to this they also have Qantas’s Ground Services. Previously it would be offered as an option during EBA negotiations - agree to a B-Scale or we’ll reduce the conditions of your award, but it was often voted down, and then to your point a fully owned subsidiary would be greater. Cabin crew is a better example than the airlines flagged - QCCA,QCCD and QCCUK -fully owned employment subsidiaries, but effective B-scale. They don’t have their open operations or AOC. I know of a few other organisations who I’ve introduced this also.


What I stated was accurate, you cannot have 737/A320 pilots working for QF on different pay rates, everyone is under the same award. They can (and presently are) employing a 737/A321 pilot at QF on one award, a pilot at Express Freighters on the 737/A321 on another award, Jetstar on the A320/A321 on another award, and Qantaslink on the A320 on another award again. They work for different companies under different AOCs.,

The examples you are citing are employees of different companies, different awards apply, and in some cases employees not based in Australia which are not employed under and form of Australian award.

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Retraining is one thing, but to go from 737 to A320 you first need to retrain half your instructors for 3 months to get them endorsed on type, then get them some operational line flying experience. Then you pull off your existing crew for three months to retrain them Boeing to Airbus. If it’s the MAX the retraining takes one day, and maybe a week’s worth for the instructors. As they are dual qualified MAX/NG they continue to train and check on both types simultaneously.


They already have instructors and pilots endorsed on the A320. QF group already operates A320 series with Jetstar, Express Freighters, and Qantaslink. Many QF pilots also too the opportunity to work at Jetstar on the A320 and then returned back to QF.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Using a mooted 225 (talk about paper airplanes!) to replace A320s seems a rather marginal benefit: they're still going to have 321s (and MAXs that compete very well in the ~160 seat class). But, yes, using E2s OR A220s to replace both F100s and 717s seems prudent (and they could probably put the range to use).


National Jet and Qantaslink operate and maintain their aircraft independently of QF. This is a Qantas Group purchase, much like when they ordered 200+ A320s previously, the aircraft in some cases will not fly for QF mainline.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1883
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:11 am

ClassicLover wrote:
melpax wrote:
Wouldn't be a suprise if the 717's were sent to WA to replace the Fokkers for a few years once the new replacements start being delivered, which will likely be initially placed on the East Coast. Though if spares & support start becoming an issue, delivery schedules will probably be sped up.


Yes, the tender is for Boeing 737 and Boeing 717 replacement only. No mention of the Fokker aircraft, so you might be right, that the 717s get redeployed.

If not, I wonder if Hawaiian might want them, as the ones in Australia should be in good condition operating around dry Australia vs the islands of Hawaii... though I think HA are planning to retire theirs in the next few years too, so maybe they'll all just end up scrapped or as you say, Fokker replacements.


They need the high engines for the remote mining areas where airports are rudimentary.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8786
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:27 am

RickNRoll wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
melpax wrote:
Wouldn't be a suprise if the 717's were sent to WA to replace the Fokkers for a few years once the new replacements start being delivered, which will likely be initially placed on the East Coast. Though if spares & support start becoming an issue, delivery schedules will probably be sped up.


Yes, the tender is for Boeing 737 and Boeing 717 replacement only. No mention of the Fokker aircraft, so you might be right, that the 717s get redeployed.

If not, I wonder if Hawaiian might want them, as the ones in Australia should be in good condition operating around dry Australia vs the islands of Hawaii... though I think HA are planning to retire theirs in the next few years too, so maybe they'll all just end up scrapped or as you say, Fokker replacements.


They need the high engines for the remote mining areas where airports are rudimentary.


Not really, though. The mine sites that Qantas serve are almost entirely capable of accepting 737/A320s, and the 'big miners' will undoubtedly upgrade the ones that aren't. The smaller mine sites will probably move to props (ATR-72 seems like a good fit due to its [relatively] massive cargo door, also the Q400 for longer stage lengths) operated by Skippers Aviation or the like. Maybe even QantasLink could operate some Q400s in the West if there was enough money in it, vis-a-vis the efficiencies associated with retiring the F100.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 760
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:44 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:

Yes, the tender is for Boeing 737 and Boeing 717 replacement only. No mention of the Fokker aircraft, so you might be right, that the 717s get redeployed.

If not, I wonder if Hawaiian might want them, as the ones in Australia should be in good condition operating around dry Australia vs the islands of Hawaii... though I think HA are planning to retire theirs in the next few years too, so maybe they'll all just end up scrapped or as you say, Fokker replacements.


They need the high engines for the remote mining areas where airports are rudimentary.


Not really, though. The mine sites that Qantas serve are almost entirely capable of accepting 737/A320s, and the 'big miners' will undoubtedly upgrade the ones that aren't. The smaller mine sites will probably move to props (ATR-72 seems like a good fit due to its [relatively] massive cargo door, also the Q400 for longer stage lengths) operated by Skippers Aviation or the like. Maybe even QantasLink could operate some Q400s in the West if there was enough money in it, vis-a-vis the efficiencies associated with retiring the F100.


Cobham are replacing their 146s/Avro Rjs with Q400s at PER base. QF have previously had Q400s based at PER so that could easily replace some of the F100s with further A320s.

The ATRs are a little slow and would struggle on the Pilbara routes.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23112
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:22 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:

They need the high engines for the remote mining areas where airports are rudimentary.


Not really, though. The mine sites that Qantas serve are almost entirely capable of accepting 737/A320s, and the 'big miners' will undoubtedly upgrade the ones that aren't. The smaller mine sites will probably move to props (ATR-72 seems like a good fit due to its [relatively] massive cargo door, also the Q400 for longer stage lengths) operated by Skippers Aviation or the like. Maybe even QantasLink could operate some Q400s in the West if there was enough money in it, vis-a-vis the efficiencies associated with retiring the F100.


Cobham are replacing their 146s/Avro Rjs with Q400s at PER base. QF have previously had Q400s based at PER so that could easily replace some of the F100s with further A320s.

The ATRs are a little slow and would struggle on the Pilbara routes.

I'm also of the opinion that sites will either upgrade the airport or go turboprop. The Q400s are available and quite capable.

The more I read this thread, the more I expect additional used aircraft to enter service (E190, Q400, maybe ATR too) with the purchase of new being rather interesting.

The F100s and 717s are now rare birds. That must be rapidly increasing C-check costs and a full heavy maintenance must be prohibitive. While used parts should be plentiful today, they will dry up.

Lightsaber
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 642
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:36 am

zeke wrote:

They already have instructors and pilots endorsed on the A320. QF group already operates A320 series with Jetstar, Express Freighters, and Qantaslink. Many QF pilots also too the opportunity to work at Jetstar on the A320 and then returned back to QF.


It’s not that easy. You can’t just throw a bunch of pilots together who’ve at one point in their careers flown a 320 and start a whole fleet and training system overnight. CASA is pretty strict in this regard, long lead in times, a lot of instructor oversight. And the airline considers pilots who’ve not flown a particular type in several years to be uncurrent.

It’s not a matter of having group airlines fly that type either. Jetstar had been flying the 787 for several years before QF mainline, yet the introduction of the 787 into QF mainline was carried out solely by mainline pilots and trainers, and Jetstar weren’t even involved in giving pilots operational exposure. Same with EFA A321, no JQ involvement in introducing that type. The various entities at times don’t have much interaction with each other, so don’t assume that mainline flying will so easily be farmed out to other entities just because they operate that particular type of aeroplane already.
 
AirDO
Posts: 64
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:24 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:39 am

I think the MAX is the most possible choice for 737NG replacement. The smaller MAX 7 could be the choice to replace Fokker and 717 jets. How was that?

https://australianaviation.com.au/2021/ ... t-renewal/
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 642
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:46 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
787 (and future A350) captains and FOs nonetheless receive inferior pay (and - more specifically - conditions) than A380 (and previously 747) pilots. The biggest ‘efficiency’ saving was changes to ‘overtime’ payments for 14+ hour flights (I believe it’s now 19 hours on the new fleets?). When even MEL-LAX and SYD-DFW are triggering overtime, that condition was a relic of a bygone era before ULH aircraft. Obviously that’s a massive saving to the company on routes like PER-LHR and future Sunrise routes, which is why they tied both the 787 order, and then A350 RFP, to the pilots accepting those terms.


Those particulars of the international pilot’s EBA aren’t really applicable to the crews flying the domestic pilot’s EBA anyway. The domestic EBA is very efficient, pilots are only paid basically for the time the jet is in the air. Long haul pilots can be paid for time not flown in a lot of cases. If an international flight is cancelled pilots are paid for the flight they are rostered for, Domestic pilots aren’t. Plus domestic QF pilots are guaranteed a smaller amount of minimum hours each month compared to JQ or VA pilots. This has especially come in handy during Covid.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1591
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:24 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:

Sorry I was talking specifically to retraining costs - agree there is some duplication in some areas but training cost aren’t insurmountable. 330/767 whilst smaller numbers comes to mind.


Retraining is one thing, but to go from 737 to A320 you first need to retrain half your instructors for 3 months to get them endorsed on type, then get them some operational line flying experience. Then you pull off your existing crew for three months to retrain them Boeing to Airbus. If it’s the MAX the retraining takes one day, and maybe a week’s worth for the instructors. As they are dual qualified MAX/NG they continue to train and check on both types simultaneously.

It didn’t scare off Jet2 -an all B737 operator in Europe- to make the switch to the A321.
 
VS11
Posts: 1731
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:57 am

AirDO wrote:
I think the MAX is the most possible choice for 737NG replacement. The smaller MAX 7 could be the choice to replace Fokker and 717 jets. How was that?

https://australianaviation.com.au/2021/ ... t-renewal/


That’s what I am thinking too.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20208
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:42 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Retraining is one thing, but to go from 737 to A320 you first need to retrain half your instructors for 3 months to get them endorsed on type, then get them some operational line flying experience. Then you pull off your existing crew for three months to retrain them Boeing to Airbus. If it’s the MAX the retraining takes one day, and maybe a week’s worth for the instructors. As they are dual qualified MAX/NG they continue to train and check on both types simultaneously.


And yet that hasn’t stopped plenty of airlines switching from 737s to A32x (and even a couple the other way), including a medium sized outfit like Jet2 in just the last couple of weeks. It’s all about the overall value proposition - if it’s good enough the mechanics of switching are irrelevant.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:43 am

This is a must win for Boeing.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8106
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:56 am

seahawk wrote:
This is a must win for Boeing.


It wouldn’t be split? I’m not convinced myself that it will go all one way. I think a split order is very possible myself.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14785
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:10 am

Buy thirty E190E1's, pull them through overhauls, standarized new cabins, a few spare engines, nice paint job.. 20% more fuel efficient and quiet than their predessesor!

The 717/F100s were used aircraft too & environmental foodprint can't be a thing, replacing F100s serving the mining industry.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2507
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:40 am

I think the 737-10 will win as the 737-800 replacement. It is the most efficient aircraft per seat on short routes. The 737-800 has 175 seats in a 2 class cabin. The 737-10 would be very efficient with a 196-198 seat 2 class cabin.
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4743
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:41 am

Split order IMO or all A321neos for mainline replacements. A321XLRs are coming anyway. I think maybe thirty 737-8MAXs and 10-15 A321neos. Remember that the current XLRs are likely to be doing a lot of what the A330s currently do.

Both E2s and CSeries would make excellent 717 replacements. I can't see anything brand new replacing the F100s, but some used E190s would work...how convenient that Alliance has acquired quite a fleet of them. I can see E2s being ordered to replace 717s with. Farm the operations of that fleet from Cobham/NationalJetSystem to Alliance. Could the Network Aviation F100s be replaced with Alliance E1s simultaneously?

Also, what's with the speculation about 717s replacing F100s? I don't see much of an efficiency gain in doing so. Also, with DL retiring the 717 quite quickly and the only other non-QF operator (Hawaiian) having a relatively small fleet, I'd have thought that spare parts avaliability would be more of an issue for the 717 than for the F100? According to Wikipedia "As of April 2020, 126 aircraft were still in operational use with airlines". Not sure what this today, but for the 717 I count 54+18+20 which is 92.

moa999 wrote:
I almost see a split choice for the mainfleet, despite the whole fleet simplification challenge.

The 321XLR with a fully flat business is just perfect for QFi for routes like Bali, Jakarta, Tokyo and even Singapore (if Sunrise gets up), and could be scheduled so as to operate the red-eyes from Perth.


Agreed.

moa999 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see an up-gauge to the 737-9


I would. The -9's runway performance will not be appropriate from airports like ZQN and WLG. Especially for ZQN, even the far more capable (in terms of runway performance) 737-800 will struggle to take all bags if there isn't a 5-6kt breeze blowing down the runway.

smi0006 wrote:
I could equally see Boeing offering a few more 789 which QF could use eventually also.


They've already got plenty of 787-9 options yet to be exercised, don't they? I fully expect them to do so but don't think this requires an additional 'order' per-se.


RyanairGuru wrote:
The mine sites that Qantas serve are almost entirely capable of accepting 737/A320s, and the 'big miners' will undoubtedly upgrade the ones that aren't.


I wonder how many mine sites would run into pavement loading issues with A321neos/737-9MAX/737-10MAXs.

sierrakilo44 wrote:
It’s not that easy. You can’t just throw a bunch of pilots together who’ve at one point in their careers flown a 320 and start a whole fleet and training system overnight. CASA is pretty strict in this regard, long lead in times, a lot of instructor oversight. And the airline considers pilots who’ve not flown a particular type in several years to be uncurrent.

It’s not a matter of having group airlines fly that type either. Jetstar had been flying the 787 for several years before QF mainline, yet the introduction of the 787 into QF mainline was carried out solely by mainline pilots and trainers, and Jetstar weren’t even involved in giving pilots operational exposure. Same with EFA A321, no JQ involvement in introducing that type. The various entities at times don’t have much interaction with each other, so don’t assume that mainline flying will so easily be farmed out to other entities just because they operate that particular type of aeroplane already.


And yet when Skywest was getting their first A320s ~10 years ago, pretty much all of their training infrastructure was built/put in place by Air New Zealand A320 instructors.

The world didn't collapse when QF(and JQ, come to think of it) A330 crew transitioned to the 787 and I doubt it will should 737 crews need to transition to the A321.
 
moa999
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:09 am

^ It's a subset of QFs 737-800s that can fly to NZ anyway (afaik only a limited number have life rafts) and the original 6 NZ registered aircraft were fairly young (the first BSI aircraft) if I recall.

The 737-9 or 321neo (not LR/XLR) would work on the golden triangle routes delivering a lower CPM
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8786
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:59 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
787 (and future A350) captains and FOs nonetheless receive inferior pay (and - more specifically - conditions) than A380 (and previously 747) pilots. The biggest ‘efficiency’ saving was changes to ‘overtime’ payments for 14+ hour flights (I believe it’s now 19 hours on the new fleets?). When even MEL-LAX and SYD-DFW are triggering overtime, that condition was a relic of a bygone era before ULH aircraft. Obviously that’s a massive saving to the company on routes like PER-LHR and future Sunrise routes, which is why they tied both the 787 order, and then A350 RFP, to the pilots accepting those terms.


Those particulars of the international pilot’s EBA aren’t really applicable to the crews flying the domestic pilot’s EBA anyway. The domestic EBA is very efficient, pilots are only paid basically for the time the jet is in the air. Long haul pilots can be paid for time not flown in a lot of cases. If an international flight is cancelled pilots are paid for the flight they are rostered for, Domestic pilots aren’t. Plus domestic QF pilots are guaranteed a smaller amount of minimum hours each month compared to JQ or VA pilots. This has especially come in handy during Covid.


No argument there, my understanding was that the domestic pilot contract was inferior to VA, at least in terms of conditions and monthly guarantee, so thanks for confirming.

I’m really confused about the current domestic flight attendant situation, and couldn’t really find anything online that clarified what contract/terms new hires have. I know the legacy QAL crew have fairly generous terms, but am I right in thinking that new hire domestic flight attendants are on inferior terms to VA?

Now that ground handling has been outsourced, Qantas domestic must have labour costs in line with (if not lower) than VA and not much higher than JQ?

If so, then the only ‘legacy’ cost left is maintenance. The decision to axe ground handling makes me think that, sadly, heavy maintenance is on borrowed time. I understand that VA and JQ are fully outsourced for heavy maintenance, but have their line maintenance in house, is that correct? The only way I could see Qantas still doing heavy maintenance in house by 2025 is if the Queensland Government stump up a gazillion dollars in return for moving everything to BNE, and even then I think that will only last until the subsidy expires.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16456
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:33 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Same with EFA A321, no JQ involvement in introducing that type. The various entities at times don’t have much interaction with each other, so don’t assume that mainline flying will so easily be farmed out to other entities just because they operate that particular type of aeroplane already.


This is not correct, the Head of Flying (Chief Pilot) of EFA was moved over from Jetstar, and the initial group of pilots did their training with Jetstar. EFA ended up employing around a dozen Jetstar pilots. Similar happened a decade ago, when EFA got the 767 the initial crews were trained at QF. Doing training and gaining initial experience at another airline is not uncommon, the initial VA A330 pilots were trained at CX and flew CX flights to gain experience before returning to Australia.

As to farming out flying, that is exactly what they did with Network/Qlink, they moved Jetstar A320s over to them because they were already flying the A320.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1335
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:56 pm

Please note, Qantas will decide till Dec-2021, which different types and numbers they will order. So I do not see anything regarding a firm order in next days or till end of this year.... So only something like LOI/MOU. The order will be done next year. and expected is an order of more than 100 narrowbodies and regional jets.

Source is in German, so use a translator.
uvor widmet sich das Flottenteam der Airline einem anderen Zukunftsprojekt: Qantas will bis Dezember über die Zusammensetzung einer neuen Kontflotte entscheiden. Airbus schickt die A220 und A320neo ins Rennen um den Auftrag über 100 Flugzeuge, Boeing spricht mit der 737 MAX, Embraer mit der E2 in Sydney vor.

https://www.aero.de/news-40971/Joyce-Qantas-fliegt-Sydney--London-2024-nonstop.html

Source in English, order next year, >100 nb.
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/10/06/qantas-airways-plans-major-plane-orders-next-year

Decision till Dec-2021, order in 2021, this seems to be new. (or I have missed it in the discussion here/missed they links).
:
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 5317
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:47 pm

T4thH wrote:
Decision till Dec-2021, order in 2021, this seems to be new. (or I have missed it in the discussion here/missed they links).


It was written here. Decision before the end of 2021, ordering in 2022 :) So now we wait.
 
Captaincurious
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:31 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:24 am

Maybe some Max7 will fit into the bill
 
Jomar777
Posts: 649
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:59 am

ClassicLover wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas is expected to confirm in coming days a tender for fleet replacement of 737’s, 717’s and F100’s. While the 737MAX and A320neo family are being considered for replacement of 737’s the A220, Embraer E2 and 737max7 are being considered for the regional jet replacement

Thoughts??


For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220. It will be far more efficient than the Boeing 737 MAX 7, though the numbers may change if they end up selecting the MAX for the 737 replacement for the main fleet, as commonality will come into play at that point.

I'd say Airbus might also have the inside track with the A320neo. But you never know... I'd say Boeing will be doing everything they can to win that business. As will Airbus for that matter.


You seem to think that Boeing (and Embraer for that matter) will only have a chance of winning any orders if they do put the prices down to a very high extent.

Maybe Qantas does not need a tender at all... just get their boffins to order as many A320s and A220s as they can right now for whatever the price.

Fact is that, unless they do consider the A220-100, the A220-300 is already too much aircraft to replace their F100's. In a way, the A220-300 competes directly with the A320 and MAX7 & MAX8.

Besides, Qantas is not an European Airline with close (or total... like ITA) links to an EU Government.

So, performance, suitability, pricing, delivery slots, etc will come into play.

I feel that, at this stage, Boeing has as many chances as Airbus and would not find Qantas daft to order from one or another.

But my bet here is a split order given that Qantas may not want to alienate one or another maker. For the F-100's replacement, I imagine they might even consider 2nd hand aircraft from elsewhere...
 
TN486T
Posts: 84
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:18 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:53 am

QF's 707's were P & W powerplants.
 
LTEN11
Posts: 316
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:09 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:28 am

TN486T wrote:
QF's 707's were P & W powerplants.


So were the first QF 747's, as were the first QF 767's, but what's that got to do with it ?
 
kriskim
Posts: 448
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:44 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:28 am

Jomar777 wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas is expected to confirm in coming days a tender for fleet replacement of 737’s, 717’s and F100’s. While the 737MAX and A320neo family are being considered for replacement of 737’s the A220, Embraer E2 and 737max7 are being considered for the regional jet replacement

Thoughts??


For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220. It will be far more efficient than the Boeing 737 MAX 7, though the numbers may change if they end up selecting the MAX for the 737 replacement for the main fleet, as commonality will come into play at that point.

I'd say Airbus might also have the inside track with the A320neo. But you never know... I'd say Boeing will be doing everything they can to win that business. As will Airbus for that matter.


You seem to think that Boeing (and Embraer for that matter) will only have a chance of winning any orders if they do put the prices down to a very high extent.

Maybe Qantas does not need a tender at all... just get their boffins to order as many A320s and A220s as they can right now for whatever the price.

Fact is that, unless they do consider the A220-100, the A220-300 is already too much aircraft to replace their F100's. In a way, the A220-300 competes directly with the A320 and MAX7 & MAX8.

Besides, Qantas is not an European Airline with close (or total... like ITA) links to an EU Government.

So, performance, suitability, pricing, delivery slots, etc will come into play.

I feel that, at this stage, Boeing has as many chances as Airbus and would not find Qantas daft to order from one or another.

But my bet here is a split order given that Qantas may not want to alienate one or another maker. For the F-100's replacement, I imagine they might even consider 2nd hand aircraft from elsewhere...


If QF’s future fleet is Airbus heavy, so be it. It’s just part of the cycle, QF was once Boeing heavy with aircraft that was suitable for its operations at the time. Before the A380 order it didn’t even have Airbus in its fleet. The 787’s will still play a vital role in QF’s long haul fleet and I see more being ordered.

IMHO, Airbus currently has the best aircraft for QF’s needs. If they are already looking at adding A321XLR into the fleet, might as well bring in the rest of the family!

A320NEO/A321NEO: Domestic workhorse, A321NEO perfect for added capacity suitable for golden triangle, transcon and Pacific flights.

A321XLR: Perfect for longer thin routes to Asia or increase frequency on current routes, a lot of opportunity.
 
User avatar
AECM
Posts: 381
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:58 am

kriskim wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:

For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220. It will be far more efficient than the Boeing 737 MAX 7, though the numbers may change if they end up selecting the MAX for the 737 replacement for the main fleet, as commonality will come into play at that point.

I'd say Airbus might also have the inside track with the A320neo. But you never know... I'd say Boeing will be doing everything they can to win that business. As will Airbus for that matter.


You seem to think that Boeing (and Embraer for that matter) will only have a chance of winning any orders if they do put the prices down to a very high extent.

Maybe Qantas does not need a tender at all... just get their boffins to order as many A320s and A220s as they can right now for whatever the price.

Fact is that, unless they do consider the A220-100, the A220-300 is already too much aircraft to replace their F100's. In a way, the A220-300 competes directly with the A320 and MAX7 & MAX8.

Besides, Qantas is not an European Airline with close (or total... like ITA) links to an EU Government.

So, performance, suitability, pricing, delivery slots, etc will come into play.

I feel that, at this stage, Boeing has as many chances as Airbus and would not find Qantas daft to order from one or another.

But my bet here is a split order given that Qantas may not want to alienate one or another maker. For the F-100's replacement, I imagine they might even consider 2nd hand aircraft from elsewhere...


If QF’s future fleet is Airbus heavy, so be it. It’s just part of the cycle, QF was once Boeing heavy with aircraft that was suitable for its operations at the time. Before the A380 order it didn’t even have Airbus in its fleet. The 787’s will still play a vital role in QF’s long haul fleet and I see more being ordered.

IMHO, Airbus currently has the best aircraft for QF’s needs. If they are already looking at adding A321XLR into the fleet, might as well bring in the rest of the family!

A320NEO/A321NEO: Domestic workhorse, A321NEO perfect for added capacity suitable for golden triangle, transcon and Pacific flights.

A321XLR: Perfect for longer thin routes to Asia or increase frequency on current routes, a lot of opportunity.


Qantas first Airbus was the A300 back in the 80s or 90s, then the first new factory order i think was the A330 in 2002 or 2003, and the first A380 arrived in 2008.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14785
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:31 am

Qantas / Jetstar / Link have 100+ A320NEO/ A321LR/ A321XLR / A321P2F on order.
That seems a bit of a done deal for the higher capacity NB segment.

For replacing the F100/717 I doubt what would fit best. Pulling 40 used E190's through a overhaul & standarisation line, give them a fresh livery sounds attractive.
Worked for the F100/717. But can you find 40 good ones?

Image
https://simpleflying.com/qantas-a220-e-jets-examination/


Than there's the A220s. If Scherer commits to QF it will add an A220-500 to the portfolio in the next 5 years, that might change perspectives.

Image
source: https://twitter.com/airinsight/status/1 ... 04/photo/1

Next to the "technical" discussion, Qantas is a long term Boeing customer and has long term interest in competition between A & B, no doubt about that. Boeing has significant industrial interests in Australia & the current (QF supporting https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... king-stake) government /PM seems pretty US focussed recently.

Luckily there are 28 A330s to be replaced soon & QF seems happy with the 787s. So some balance could be maintained, specially after they voiced preference for the A350 over the 777X. I remember QF committing to 100+ Dreamliners in 2005. Anyone who would have told Dixon then that QF would be operating 11 787s and 28 A330s in 2021, would have been fully dismissed. Something definitely went wrong there.. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2005-12-14/ ... act/761316

Probably 787/777x delays + not offering an NMA didn't strenghten Boeings position at Qantas. I think long term industrial, political considerations might weigh in more then before though.

An order for 30 787s would be welcome for restoring business relations in line with the new political militairy alliance. In that light Boeing might have a chance too with NB's, although Boeings 737-8 offering seems a bit of a 1 trick pony at this stage compared to Airbus (A220-100/-300, A320 /321, ATR's).. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ecade.html

.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
User avatar
TheDutchman92
Posts: 22
Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:05 pm

Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:43 am

Not including the A300B4s yeah?

Edit: forgot to quote


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1796
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:15 pm

My recollection is that the A300s were acquired by (Trans) Australian before it was absorbed into Qantas, and did not last long after that acquisition
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23112
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:40 pm

keesje wrote:
Qantas / Jetstar / Link have 100+ A320NEO/ A321LR/ A321XLR / A321P2F on order.
That seems a bit of a done deal for the higher capacity NB segment.

For replacing the F100/717 I doubt what would fit best. Pulling 40 used E190's through a overhaul & standarisation line, give them a fresh livery sounds attractive.
Worked for the F100/717. But can you find 40 good ones?

Image
https://simpleflying.com/qantas-a220-e-jets-examination/


Than there's the A220s. If Scherer commits to QF it will add an A220-500 to the portfolio in the next 5 years, that might change perspectives.

Image
source: https://twitter.com/airinsight/status/1 ... 04/photo/1

Next to the "technical" discussion, Qantas is a long term Boeing customer and has long term interest in competition between A & B, no doubt about that. Boeing has significant industrial interests in Australia & the current (QF supporting https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... king-stake) government /PM seems pretty US focussed recently.

Luckily there are 28 A330s to be replaced soon & QF seems happy with the 787s. So some balance could be maintained, specially after they voiced preference for the A350 over the 777X. I remember QF committing to 100+ Dreamliners in 2005. Anyone who would have told Dixon then that QF would be operating 11 787s and 28 A330s in 2021, would have been fully dismissed. Something definitely went wrong there.. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2005-12-14/ ... act/761316

Probably 787/777x delays + not offering an NMA didn't strenghten Boeings position at Qantas. I think long term industrial, political considerations might weigh in more then before though.

An order for 30 787s would be welcome for restoring business relations in line with the new political militairy alliance. In that light Boeing might have a chance too with NB's, although Boeings 737-8 offering seems a bit of a 1 trick pony at this stage compared to Airbus (A220-100/-300, A320 /321, ATR's).. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ecade.html

.

Fascinating chart. It shows the Q400s, 717s, and F100s are far to the left, about to cross the line to "Exit Fading Technology" with the A320CEOs moving that way. Of course, that assumes the graph had as much thought put into it as I'm assuming...

I agree the 787s will replace the A330s, another fleet type is not required. The question is if any will be kept as A330P2F? I'm serious, I see a need, but is the cost worth it when the other A330s are looking for their next gig. Yes, the 787 EIS had something go wrong. Whoosadoodle, in the past, time to plan for the future. I agree the NMA would have had a role at Qantas.

But the first order will be to replace the Q400s/717s/F100s (not necessarily in that order).

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 5317
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:51 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas is expected to confirm in coming days a tender for fleet replacement of 737’s, 717’s and F100’s. While the 737MAX and A320neo family are being considered for replacement of 737’s the A220, Embraer E2 and 737max7 are being considered for the regional jet replacement

Thoughts??


For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220. It will be far more efficient than the Boeing 737 MAX 7, though the numbers may change if they end up selecting the MAX for the 737 replacement for the main fleet, as commonality will come into play at that point.

I'd say Airbus might also have the inside track with the A320neo. But you never know... I'd say Boeing will be doing everything they can to win that business. As will Airbus for that matter.


You seem to think that Boeing (and Embraer for that matter) will only have a chance of winning any orders if they do put the prices down to a very high extent.

Maybe Qantas does not need a tender at all... just get their boffins to order as many A320s and A220s as they can right now for whatever the price.

Fact is that, unless they do consider the A220-100, the A220-300 is already too much aircraft to replace their F100's. In a way, the A220-300 competes directly with the A320 and MAX7 & MAX8.


You're putting words in my mouth - I never said anything about pricing being reduced by Boeing and Embraer, that was all you.

Also, the F100 replacement is not part of this tender, so it's a moot point.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
My recollection is that the A300s were acquired by (Trans) Australian before it was absorbed into Qantas, and did not last long after that acquisition


Correct, the first A300B4-203 arrived in Australia in 1981 and entered service with Trans-Australia Airlines. They ordered five (VH-TAA, TAB, TAC, TAD, TAE), with TAB being sold early on and others leased out during the 1980s as they were too much aircraft. The four remaining eventually became Qantas aircraft. They were likely sold because they were four orphans in the fleet really and they were getting along in years too.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14785
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:56 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Also, the F100 replacement is not part of this tender, so it's a moot point.


Is it not? https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-10-03/ Then there are more than 1 contest, but they are strongly related anyway.

If Airbus could offer the A220-100, -300 (and -500 in the future) at attractive pricing that would have many obvious advantages. But free A220 slots are sparse for years to come & I can't imagine an A220-100 being cheaper than overhauled E190s for a few flights a day.

Anyway the financial condition of QF is stable (thanx gov.) & interest rates low, so that should help. https://www.traveldailymedia.com/how-qa ... -pandemic/
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
Posts: 5317
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:56 pm

keesje wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
Also, the F100 replacement is not part of this tender, so it's a moot point.


Is it not? https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-10-03/ Then there are more than 1 contest, but they are strongly related anyway.

If Airbus could offer the A220-100, -300 (and -500 in the future) at attractive pricing that would have many obvious advantages. But free A220 slots are sparse for years to come & I can't imagine an A220-100 being cheaper than overhauled E190s for a few flights a day.

Anyway the financial condition of QF is stable (thanx gov.) & interest rates low, so that should help. https://www.traveldailymedia.com/how-qa ... -pandemic/


No, the Fokker 100 is not included - the Qantas press release is here - https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-finalising-10-year-program-to-renew-domestic-fleet/

It specifically says Boeing 737-800 and Boeing 717 replacement, even going so far as to list the specs of the two aircraft types being replaced, as well as the four contenders (737MAX, A320neo, A220 and Embraer E-Jet E2) along with their specs at the bottom of the press release. Therefore the Reuters article appears to be incorrect.

Qantas has been financially fine for years now, they're one of the few investment grade airlines in the world.
 
Jomar777
Posts: 649
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:58 am

keesje wrote:
Qantas / Jetstar / Link have 100+ A320NEO/ A321LR/ A321XLR / A321P2F on order.
That seems a bit of a done deal for the higher capacity NB segment.

For replacing the F100/717 I doubt what would fit best. Pulling 40 used E190's through a overhaul & standarisation line, give them a fresh livery sounds attractive.
Worked for the F100/717. But can you find 40 good ones?

Image
https://simpleflying.com/qantas-a220-e-jets-examination/


Than there's the A220s. If Scherer commits to QF it will add an A220-500 to the portfolio in the next 5 years, that might change perspectives.

Image
source: https://twitter.com/airinsight/status/1 ... 04/photo/1

Next to the "technical" discussion, Qantas is a long term Boeing customer and has long term interest in competition between A & B, no doubt about that. Boeing has significant industrial interests in Australia & the current (QF supporting https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... king-stake) government /PM seems pretty US focussed recently.

Luckily there are 28 A330s to be replaced soon & QF seems happy with the 787s. So some balance could be maintained, specially after they voiced preference for the A350 over the 777X. I remember QF committing to 100+ Dreamliners in 2005. Anyone who would have told Dixon then that QF would be operating 11 787s and 28 A330s in 2021, would have been fully dismissed. Something definitely went wrong there.. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2005-12-14/ ... act/761316

Probably 787/777x delays + not offering an NMA didn't strenghten Boeings position at Qantas. I think long term industrial, political considerations might weigh in more then before though.

An order for 30 787s would be welcome for restoring business relations in line with the new political militairy alliance. In that light Boeing might have a chance too with NB's, although Boeings 737-8 offering seems a bit of a 1 trick pony at this stage compared to Airbus (A220-100/-300, A320 /321, ATR's).. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ecade.html

.


Good insight and analysis.

Some points to wonder bearing your input:

a. Can we find good 40 used E190s around? The answer is certainly yes. I am not sure on the condition of Jet Blue's ones neither Air Canada's but 40 is not a big number to source;
b. I simply do not see an A220-500 in the frame at all. Several previous discussions on this already happened and this A225 keeps coming on. It would be a direct competitor to the A320. Besides, the backlog on the other A220s and the lack of profitability on them prevents it developing any time soon. Granted - there was a CS-500 on plan but this was when BBD believed that it would conquer the Regional and Short Haul Market away from Boeing, Airbus and Embraer. Now that the CS is nothing more than an A220, expect a development of a bigger version when the A320 family is revamped by itself. not now;
c. You mention the political scenario and also Qantas interests in keeping A & B happy. Yes, it might involve a preference for a B737 order but I wonder actually if it might not play the other way. Australia has just reneged on a Submarine Deal with France creating a great deal of stress and diplomatic jangling. You might wonder if Qantas would then go to a A320/A220 order for mainline SH (replacing their old 737s) in expense of a future B787 as A330s replacement and, maybe, an increase on their B777X orders to replace their A380s.

I still think that their F100s may be replaced by used E-Jets or new ones in some short (the A220 is too big for it and the terrain does not agrees...). The rest, I still feel it will be a split order.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23112
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:32 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Qantas / Jetstar / Link have 100+ A320NEO/ A321LR/ A321XLR / A321P2F on order.
That seems a bit of a done deal for the higher capacity NB segment.

For replacing the F100/717 I doubt what would fit best. Pulling 40 used E190's through a overhaul & standarisation line, give them a fresh livery sounds attractive.
Worked for the F100/717. But can you find 40 good ones?

Image
https://simpleflying.com/qantas-a220-e-jets-examination/


Than there's the A220s. If Scherer commits to QF it will add an A220-500 to the portfolio in the next 5 years, that might change perspectives.

Image
source: https://twitter.com/airinsight/status/1 ... 04/photo/1

Next to the "technical" discussion, Qantas is a long term Boeing customer and has long term interest in competition between A & B, no doubt about that. Boeing has significant industrial interests in Australia & the current (QF supporting https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... king-stake) government /PM seems pretty US focussed recently.

Luckily there are 28 A330s to be replaced soon & QF seems happy with the 787s. So some balance could be maintained, specially after they voiced preference for the A350 over the 777X. I remember QF committing to 100+ Dreamliners in 2005. Anyone who would have told Dixon then that QF would be operating 11 787s and 28 A330s in 2021, would have been fully dismissed. Something definitely went wrong there.. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2005-12-14/ ... act/761316

Probably 787/777x delays + not offering an NMA didn't strenghten Boeings position at Qantas. I think long term industrial, political considerations might weigh in more then before though.

An order for 30 787s would be welcome for restoring business relations in line with the new political militairy alliance. In that light Boeing might have a chance too with NB's, although Boeings 737-8 offering seems a bit of a 1 trick pony at this stage compared to Airbus (A220-100/-300, A320 /321, ATR's).. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ecade.html

.


Good insight and analysis.

Some points to wonder bearing your input:

a. Can we find good 40 used E190s around? The answer is certainly yes. I am not sure on the condition of Jet Blue's ones neither Air Canada's but 40 is not a big number to source;
b. I simply do not see an A220-500 in the frame at all. Several previous discussions on this already happened and this A225 keeps coming on. It would be a direct competitor to the A320. Besides, the backlog on the other A220s and the lack of profitability on them prevents it developing any time soon. Granted - there was a CS-500 on plan but this was when BBD believed that it would conquer the Regional and Short Haul Market away from Boeing, Airbus and Embraer. Now that the CS is nothing more than an A220, expect a development of a bigger version when the A320 family is revamped by itself. not now;
c. You mention the political scenario and also Qantas interests in keeping A & B happy. Yes, it might involve a preference for a B737 order but I wonder actually if it might not play the other way. Australia has just reneged on a Submarine Deal with France creating a great deal of stress and diplomatic jangling. You might wonder if Qantas would then go to a A320/A220 order for mainline SH (replacing their old 737s) in expense of a future B787 as A330s replacement and, maybe, an increase on their B777X orders to replace their A380s.

I still think that their F100s may be replaced by used E-Jets or new ones in some short (the A220 is too big for it and the terrain does not agrees...). The rest, I still feel it will be a split order.

I agree with the A220-500 not being in the tender. Since ALC could be in the mix and Airbus is ramping up production, slots of the A220 are a non-issue in my opinion.
As to 40 used E-190s in good condition? Yes. JetBlue will have to do the wing spar repair before returning leased aircraft and that is the only concern with their aircraft I could think of.

Per Airfleets, there should be 144 available E-190/195, there is a reason :
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-e190.htm

Latest pricing
EMB190 – $7.5 – 25.5M, $80-200,000
2019 pricing:
EMB190 – $11.5 – 31.5M, $135-265,000

viewtopic.php?t=1460947
viewtopic.php?t=1422705

I'd say that means there are motivated sellers. For low utilization duty, used E-jets would work well for QF. For high utilization duty, they would want A220 or E2 and both can ramp up production easily a plane per month (12/yr not some funky year), so slots shouldn't be an issue after 1H2022.

The small planes for QF interest me the most. It will be interesting if they want range (A223) or fleet commonality with possible F100 replacements (E2-195).

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12424
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:40 pm

A225s cannot be in the tender. Airbus has no authority from their board to offer or promise such plane in a firm contract. The most they can do is have discussions about it with clients.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14785
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:13 pm

.
Airbus is going to do a A220-500, the COO told us. https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 90.article

Question would be, if airlines want to/ have to wait for A220 production rates to go up beyond 15/month. Or Airbus has confidence enough to commit, with reasonable delivery dates.
If Boeing can commit on a 777-8F, Airbus should be able to do the same on a A220-500 I guess. For Qantas 2027-28 might be acceptable, if they can get e.g. E190s, A220-300s and A321 from 2023-24.

It's sad for Dutch guys involved to see when the last Fokkers will be retired from Australia too. Many people I know worked on the development 30+ yrs ago.
Image

The similar sized A220 is surviving because they joined one of the a big OE's, giving up national pride and control.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12424
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:34 pm

keesje wrote:
.
Airbus is going to do a A220-500, the COO told us. https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 90.article

It does not matter what the COO says. Until they have authority from board Airbus can’t offer it as part of a RFP. Sales division can’t go rogue and start offering paper planes and committing the company to them in legal contracts prior to Airbus board authorizing the development /offering of such aircraft.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 14785
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:56 pm

Polot wrote:
It does not matter what the COO says.


:confused:

Airlines buying aircraft want 25 years perspectives on fleet purchases. They make different fleet / network scenarios / projections for that period, to see what fits best overall. They have to. It includes dotted line aircraft not launched, but discussed under NDA's. I can tell first hand and you can see them in Qantas (NMA) and AF (A225) long term fleet planning. The fact they even shared publicly, probably is to put some pressure on risk averse OE's.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos