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Toenga
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 1:03 am

Will the flexibility of the A320 series to load cans, as well as be bulk loaded be a factor in any decision?
Especially for the largest members of the family, A321 and max10 cans would seem to be an advantage. And for operating out of the busiest, or perhaps wettest destinations.
 
LTEN11
Posts: 450
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:09 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 1:24 am

Toenga wrote:
Will the flexibility of the A320 series to load cans, as well as be bulk loaded be a factor in any decision?
Especially for the largest members of the family, A321 and max10 cans would seem to be an advantage. And for operating out of the busiest, or perhaps wettest destinations.


Wettest destinations as an influence will have zero too do with the selection. Containerisation may have an influence in the final decision, but I doubt it will have a huge influence.
 
x1234
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Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 1:24 am

The best solution is the A359ULR for long-haul and A321XLR for short-haul. The range of the A321XLR is impressive, it can reach most of Asia from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER.
 
LTEN11
Posts: 450
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:09 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 1:56 am

x1234 wrote:
The best solution is the A359ULR for long-haul and A321XLR for short-haul. The range of the A321XLR is impressive, it can reach most of Asia from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER.


This is a tender for domestic/narrow body aircraft.
 
Toenga
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 2:20 am

LTEN11 wrote:

Wettest destinations as an influence will have zero too do with the selection. Containerisation may have an influence in the final decision, but I doubt it will have a huge influence.


Just thought it would be far easier to load 10 enclosed containers then 220 odd bags in a typical tropical or subtropical rainstorm routinely encountered on Australia's east and northern coast.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 836
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 3:39 am

Toenga wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:

Wettest destinations as an influence will have zero too do with the selection. Containerisation may have an influence in the final decision, but I doubt it will have a huge influence.


Just thought it would be far easier to load 10 enclosed containers then 220 odd bags in a typical tropical or subtropical rainstorm routinely encountered on Australia's east and northern coast.


Now they have outsourced all ground handling its not really their issue - will just depend what's in the contract. Probably not a deciding factor.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2910
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 5:20 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:

Wettest destinations as an influence will have zero too do with the selection. Containerisation may have an influence in the final decision, but I doubt it will have a huge influence.


Just thought it would be far easier to load 10 enclosed containers then 220 odd bags in a typical tropical or subtropical rainstorm routinely encountered on Australia's east and northern coast.


Now they have outsourced all ground handling its not really their issue - will just depend what's in the contract. Probably not a deciding factor.


Also a belt loader is pretty cheap compared to a the cost of an FMC - and ground handling agency will simply pass back the cost of any GSE in their agreements. They could still opt for a 320 and bulk load it. I know NZ do that to MCY,HBA and ADL. I’m sure it’s common around the world.


Do the 320 & 321NEOs have a co-type rating with 330CEO? Or seperate type ratings for crew? I also wonder what sort of after purchase care package Airbus could pull together for an A220 /NEO combo via a split Embraer, or Boeing order? How are these normally structured?
 
Toenga
Posts: 370
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 5:26 am

[quote="jrfspa320]

Now they have outsourced all ground handling its not really their issue - will just depend what's in the contract. Probably not a deciding factor.[/quote]

Contracts have expiry dates. Getting costs down, effects contract costs.
Weather delays are still very definitely Qantas problems. If container loading is less subject to delay then bulk loading then that is a Qantas benifit regardless of any ground handling contracts.


The reason I raise this is the early demise of Boeing 757 from the BA fleet, so shortly after being promoted by BA management as a splendid aircraft for their operations.
The reason, the lack of contanerised baggage loading.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 5:44 am

Toenga wrote:
[quote="jrfspa320]

Now they have outsourced all ground handling its not really their issue - will just depend what's in the contract. Probably not a deciding factor.[/quote]

Contracts have expiry dates. Getting costs down, effects contract costs.
Weather delays are still very definitely Qantas problems. If container loading is less subject to delay then bulk loading then that is a Qantas benifit regardless of any ground handling contracts.


The reason I raise this is the early demise of Boeing 757 from the BA fleet, so shortly after being promoted by BA management as a splendid aircraft for their operations.
The reason, the lack of contanerised baggage loading.[/quote]


I’ve never heard of loading being delayed by rain - the bags simply get wet and it becomes a customer issue. I’ve seen covered dollies before, if it was that big an issue QF would have purchased them for the current 737 fleet.

The 757 issue at BA was due to the T5 sortation system only accepting ULDs in the baggage rooms I believe due to increased automation, which in turn greatly reduced baggage room labour. Thus for a period of time bulk loaded flights operated from their other terminals. I can’t see any of the key mainline ports moving to this level of automation anytime soon in Australia. An no outstation would ever require it.
 
LTEN11
Posts: 450
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:09 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 6:44 am

Toenga wrote:
[quote="jrfspa320]

Now they have outsourced all ground handling its not really their issue - will just depend what's in the contract. Probably not a deciding factor.[/quote]

Contracts have expiry dates. Getting costs down, effects contract costs.
Weather delays are still very definitely Qantas problems. If container loading is less subject to delay then bulk loading then that is a Qantas benifit regardless of any ground handling contracts.


The reason I raise this is the early demise of Boeing 757 from the BA fleet, so shortly after being promoted by BA management as a splendid aircraft for their operations.
The reason, the lack of contanerised baggage loading.[/quote]


The only weather serious enough too stop bulk loading is a thunder storm, but the lightning in that storm also prevents any other type of loading as well, so really it's a moot point.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 9090
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:58 am

smi0006 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
[quote="jrfspa320]

Now they have outsourced all ground handling its not really their issue - will just depend what's in the contract. Probably not a deciding factor.[/quote]

Contracts have expiry dates. Getting costs down, effects contract costs.
Weather delays are still very definitely Qantas problems. If container loading is less subject to delay then bulk loading then that is a Qantas benifit regardless of any ground handling contracts.


The reason I raise this is the early demise of Boeing 757 from the BA fleet, so shortly after being promoted by BA management as a splendid aircraft for their operations.
The reason, the lack of contanerised baggage loading.[/quote][/quote]

I’ve never heard of loading being delayed by rain - the bags simply get wet and it becomes a customer issue. I’ve seen covered dollies before, if it was that big an issue QF would have purchased them for the current 737 fleet.

The 757 issue at BA was due to the T5 sortation system only accepting ULDs in the baggage rooms I believe due to increased automation, which in turn greatly reduced baggage room labour. Thus for a period of time bulk loaded flights operated from their other terminals. I can’t see any of the key mainline ports moving to this level of automation anytime soon in Australia. An no outstation would ever require it.[/quote][/quote][/quote]


This is correct. T5 at LHR was designed specifically for containerised baggage, so the 757s saw out their twilight years only flying from T3 except for a few subs. While the T5 container system saves labour handling, the chance of us seeing a similar system in Australia is just about zero. The cost of rebuilding the baggage sorting system on existing infrastructure wouldn’t justify the cost.

As for bulk loading A320s, note that Network do this as they fly to so many remote strips.
 
DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 12:03 pm

Here we are, over 2 months later, and no order. Just love the news and their “sources”.
 
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par13del
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 12:44 pm

LTEN11 wrote:
The only weather serious enough too stop bulk loading is a thunder storm, but the lightning in that storm also prevents any other type of loading as well, so really it's a moot point.

Better question is which airport is going to be open for departures in such storms, it not like the weather only affects the loading of bags...
Not saying it cannot be used to justify a purchase because we all know that something has to be put down on paper and once done we will all fall in line, but the practical reality is that airlines use bulk loading all over the world in regions that have more rainfall than Australia with little to no disruption of operations.
In the a/c being considered, there are many more practical issues that can be used to justify a purchase, at the end of the day no one will be shocked if purchase price is the main driver nothing to do with interior width, commonality, pilot training, FBW, etc etc etc.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 1:37 pm

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Here we are, over 2 months later, and no order. Just love the news and their “sources”.


Eh? Alan Joyce confirmed last week that the tender process would be finalised by the end of this year, with the formal order in 1Q22, which is the same timetable referred to in Qantas’ press release dated 5 October 2021 (link below). They are on track with what they always said they would do, with no over-promising or over-hyping, it’s only the Anet cheer squad that managed to sustain a thread for two months with nothing to announce.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... tic-fleet/
 
sxf24
Posts: 1784
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 2:28 pm

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Here we are, over 2 months later, and no order. Just love the news and their “sources”.


Decision is supposed to come this week.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 2:49 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Here we are, over 2 months later, and no order. Just love the news and their “sources”.


Eh? Alan Joyce confirmed last week that the tender process would be finalised by the end of this year, with the formal order in 1Q22, which is the same timetable referred to in Qantas’ press release dated 5 October 2021 (link below). They are on track with what they always said they would do, with no over-promising or over-hyping, it’s only the Anet cheer squad that managed to sustain a thread for two months with nothing to announce.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... tic-fleet/

Thank you for the link.
The reality is, this order is a big deal beyond the order numbers, so naturally there is cheerleading going on.

I personally believe this is such a contested order that negotiations will continue until the last hour. Then the decision made with a formal presentation to the board of directors for approval.

There is only one real winner: Qantas
All others will have to make concessions.

Lightsaber
 
jfk777
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 3:34 pm

x1234 wrote:
The best solution is the A359ULR for long-haul and A321XLR for short-haul. The range of the A321XLR is impressive, it can reach most of Asia from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER.


Why would Qantas want to fly to Tokyo, Hong Kong, & Singapore from Sydney and Melbourne with a single aisle plane when these city pairs have huge demand ? The A321XLR is being advertised as the cure to all long haul, Airbus had an advertisement from Miami with all the long haul it could do including LHR, the problem is that LHR is the biggest route from MIA. In 2019 There were 3 BA, 2 AA and 2 Virgin Atlantic flights by 747, 777 and 787.
 
MIflyer12
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Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 3:44 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Here we are, over 2 months later, and no order. Just love the news and their “sources”.


Eh? Alan Joyce confirmed last week that the tender process would be finalised by the end of this year, with the formal order in 1Q22, which is the same timetable referred to in Qantas’ press release dated 5 October 2021 (link below).


How many months of dithering on Project Sunrise? Care to bet there's a formal order in place by 31 March 2022? Deadlines are announced to pressure bidders. They mean little in the actual (multi-cycle) negotiation process. Joyce hasn't even finished the tender - he doesn't know what QF is going to get in first-round responses.
 
TObound
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 6:19 pm

jfk777 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
The best solution is the A359ULR for long-haul and A321XLR for short-haul. The range of the A321XLR is impressive, it can reach most of Asia from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER.


Why would Qantas want to fly to Tokyo, Hong Kong, & Singapore from Sydney and Melbourne with a single aisle plane when these city pairs have huge demand ?


Not saying Qantas will do this. But I would presume that any such operation would be about offering more J seats and more frequencies.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 6:43 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Here we are, over 2 months later, and no order. Just love the news and their “sources”.


Eh? Alan Joyce confirmed last week that the tender process would be finalised by the end of this year, with the formal order in 1Q22, which is the same timetable referred to in Qantas’ press release dated 5 October 2021 (link below).


How many months of dithering on Project Sunrise? Care to bet there's a formal order in place by 31 March 2022? Deadlines are announced to pressure bidders. They mean little in the actual (multi-cycle) negotiation process. Joyce hasn't even finished the tender - he doesn't know what QF is going to get in first-round responses.


I don't quite get what point you are trying to make. What's the point of your 'bet' if 31st March is 1Q22, and which Qantas has always stated?
 
Pentaprism
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:12 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 6:54 pm

jfk777 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
The best solution is the A359ULR for long-haul and A321XLR for short-haul. The range of the A321XLR is impressive, it can reach most of Asia from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER.


Why would Qantas want to fly to Tokyo, Hong Kong, & Singapore from Sydney and Melbourne with a single aisle plane when these city pairs have huge demand ? The A321XLR is being advertised as the cure to all long haul, Airbus had an advertisement from Miami with all the long haul it could do including LHR, the problem is that LHR is the biggest route from MIA. In 2019 There were 3 BA, 2 AA and 2 Virgin Atlantic flights by 747, 777 and 787.


There are a lot more routes that can sustain an A321XLR than a wide body. eg ADL-SIN used to be a 767 but got cut. But would prob work fine in an A321. They could consider stacks of others as well, eg ADL-AKL, PER-AKL, PER-CHC, PER-JNB, SYD-TPE, MEL-KIX, SYD-FUK, SYD-BOM etc etc

With demand uncertain in COVID new norm less risky to purchase these than Wide Bodies and they are suitable for Domestic and thin Intl routes.

Will be very surprised if they don't order some.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8428
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:13 pm

Pentaprism wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
The best solution is the A359ULR for long-haul and A321XLR for short-haul. The range of the A321XLR is impressive, it can reach most of Asia from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER.


Why would Qantas want to fly to Tokyo, Hong Kong, & Singapore from Sydney and Melbourne with a single aisle plane when these city pairs have huge demand ? The A321XLR is being advertised as the cure to all long haul, Airbus had an advertisement from Miami with all the long haul it could do including LHR, the problem is that LHR is the biggest route from MIA. In 2019 There were 3 BA, 2 AA and 2 Virgin Atlantic flights by 747, 777 and 787.


There are a lot more routes that can sustain an A321XLR than a wide body. eg ADL-SIN used to be a 767 but got cut. But would prob work fine in an A321. They could consider stacks of others as well, eg ADL-AKL, PER-AKL, PER-CHC, PER-JNB, SYD-TPE, MEL-KIX, SYD-FUK, SYD-BOM etc etc

With demand uncertain in COVID new norm less risky to purchase these than Wide Bodies and they are suitable for Domestic and thin Intl routes.

Will be very surprised if they don't order some.


Most of those are a pipe dream for now but you never know how good an aircraft the A321LR might be in 10 years.

But I agree with you, personally I would be very surprised if they don’t order some.
 
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LoganTheBogan
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 8:38 pm

Qantas shuts down on the 20th for Christmas period (not sure if that includes the entirety of the board/executive team). They also have a big meeting in two days time. I can see that being a good time frame for an announcement.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 8:42 pm

LoganTheBogan wrote:
Qantas shuts down on the 20th for Christmas period (not sure if that includes the entirety of the board/executive team). They also have a big meeting in two days time. I can see that being a good time frame for an announcement.

Looking at the timing of the announcement of the sunrise decision. Expecting the announcement this week as well.
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 140
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 9:27 pm

Opus99 wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Qantas shuts down on the 20th for Christmas period (not sure if that includes the entirety of the board/executive team). They also have a big meeting in two days time. I can see that being a good time frame for an announcement.

Looking at the timing of the announcement of the sunrise decision. Expecting the announcement this week as well.


Big meeting on the Thursday with a potential announcement on Friday morning to get everyone going for the weekend?

Either way whenever it happens, it'll be a big announcement and an exciting one
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 9090
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:28 pm

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Qantas shuts down on the 20th for Christmas period (not sure if that includes the entirety of the board/executive team). They also have a big meeting in two days time. I can see that being a good time frame for an announcement.

Looking at the timing of the announcement of the sunrise decision. Expecting the announcement this week as well.


Big meeting on the Thursday with a potential announcement on Friday morning to get everyone going for the weekend?

Either way whenever it happens, it'll be a big announcement and an exciting one


Might be better off announcing on Monday. Not much news in Christmas week, other than border restrictions and the road toll, so it will almost certainly be covered by every Australian media outlet, generating lots of free publicity.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1582
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:51 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Looking at the timing of the announcement of the sunrise decision. Expecting the announcement this week as well.


Big meeting on the Thursday with a potential announcement on Friday morning to get everyone going for the weekend?

Either way whenever it happens, it'll be a big announcement and an exciting one


Might be better off announcing on Monday. Not much news in Christmas week, other than border restrictions and the road toll, so it will almost certainly be covered by every Australian media outlet, generating lots of free publicity.

Stock market; if the decision is there, they will have to announc it, regular, before the market opens, or after it has just closed.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:29 am

T4thH wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:

Big meeting on the Thursday with a potential announcement on Friday morning to get everyone going for the weekend?

Either way whenever it happens, it'll be a big announcement and an exciting one


Might be better off announcing on Monday. Not much news in Christmas week, other than border restrictions and the road toll, so it will almost certainly be covered by every Australian media outlet, generating lots of free publicity.

Stock market; if the decision is there, they will have to announc it, regular, before the market opens, or after it has just closed.


The order isn’t until 1Q22, this announcement will be for ‘exclusive bidder’ status or an LOI at the most. No debt would have been put down at that point.

See the A350 announcement in December 2019 for case in point. The announcement was nothing more than ‘we hope to order some A350s in the future’.
Last edited by RyanairGuru on Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7596
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:30 am

Pentaprism wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
The best solution is the A359ULR for long-haul and A321XLR for short-haul. The range of the A321XLR is impressive, it can reach most of Asia from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER.


Why would Qantas want to fly to Tokyo, Hong Kong, & Singapore from Sydney and Melbourne with a single aisle plane when these city pairs have huge demand ? The A321XLR is being advertised as the cure to all long haul, Airbus had an advertisement from Miami with all the long haul it could do including LHR, the problem is that LHR is the biggest route from MIA. In 2019 There were 3 BA, 2 AA and 2 Virgin Atlantic flights by 747, 777 and 787.


There are a lot more routes that can sustain an A321XLR than a wide body. eg ADL-SIN used to be a 767 but got cut. But would prob work fine in an A321. They could consider stacks of others as well, eg ADL-AKL, PER-AKL, PER-CHC, PER-JNB, SYD-TPE, MEL-KIX, SYD-FUK, SYD-BOM etc etc

With demand uncertain in COVID new norm less risky to purchase these than Wide Bodies and they are suitable for Domestic and thin Intl routes.

Will be very surprised if they don't order some.


The first line states : SYD, MEL, BNE and PER, it is from the big Aussie cities that calls for an A330 or 787 to be flown. From smaller cities the A321XLR clearly has a market, go get some and fly nonstop to Singapore or Tokyo.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1582
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:04 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
T4thH wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

Might be better off announcing on Monday. Not much news in Christmas week, other than border restrictions and the road toll, so it will almost certainly be covered by every Australian media outlet, generating lots of free publicity.

Stock market; if the decision is there, they will have to announc it, regular, before the market opens, or after it has just closed.


The order isn’t until 1Q22, this announcement will be for ‘exclusive bidder’ status or an LOI at the most. No debt would have been put down at that point.

See the A350 announcement in December 2019 for case in point. The announcement was nothing more than ‘we hope to order some A350s in the future’.


I am well aware, that we will see "only" a LOI now. But it will be an official decision of the board and they will have to announce their decision, And this (so the LOI decission) will have to be announced according the stock market rules (to my information).
 
Pentaprism
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:12 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:27 am

jfk777 wrote:
Pentaprism wrote:
jfk777 wrote:

Why would Qantas want to fly to Tokyo, Hong Kong, & Singapore from Sydney and Melbourne with a single aisle plane when these city pairs have huge demand ? The A321XLR is being advertised as the cure to all long haul, Airbus had an advertisement from Miami with all the long haul it could do including LHR, the problem is that LHR is the biggest route from MIA. In 2019 There were 3 BA, 2 AA and 2 Virgin Atlantic flights by 747, 777 and 787.


There are a lot more routes that can sustain an A321XLR than a wide body. eg ADL-SIN used to be a 767 but got cut. But would prob work fine in an A321. They could consider stacks of others as well, eg ADL-AKL, PER-AKL, PER-CHC, PER-JNB, SYD-TPE, MEL-KIX, SYD-FUK, SYD-BOM etc etc

With demand uncertain in COVID new norm less risky to purchase these than Wide Bodies and they are suitable for Domestic and thin Intl routes.

Will be very surprised if they don't order some.


The first line states : SYD, MEL, BNE and PER, it is from the big Aussie cities that calls for an A330 or 787 to be flown. From smaller cities the A321XLR clearly has a market, go get some and fly nonstop to Singapore or Tokyo.


I think there are just as many opportunities from SYD & MEL. Especially if the A/C are shared between QF & JQ. I haven't done the maths so some of these Ports might be out of range but they could look at adding;

FUK, KIX, NGO, TPE, SGN, KBV, KUL, KOH, BKI, PPT, POM from SYD and/or MEL

They could also use it to increase frequency to DPS, CGK & MNL. The advantage of the A321XLR is that it removes a lot of the risk of starting a new mid distance route and buys you time to build your Customer base. eg SYD-KUL must have been close to being viable pre-covid in an A330. Nowhere near viable post covid in an A330. But you don't need to sell many tickets to get decent yield on the A321 so good chance it would work. And after 5 or 10 years service the QF Brand on that route may be embellished enough to support a wide body. If not just keep using the A321 to milk the Cow.

Strategically, adding these type of routes from SYD/MEL plus others from ADL, BNE & PER would significantly add to the QF Intl network and make it a much stronger player.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:21 am

Not sure if KUL was ever viable with AirAsiaX putting massive capacity and low yield into Australia that MH mostly matched.

They became a bit more expensive in the 18mths before Covid, but still a tough route.
Now the recap of AirAsiaX and fleet reduction may make it a more viable route.
 
oceanvikram
Posts: 135
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:40 pm

Indeed 321XLR is the perfect aircraft of Qantas ... but remember they never bought the 757.

Qantas is not about destination expansion but ensuring the routes they fly is virtually fortified. It's a defensive business model but it works.

I am from Perth and it saddens me that their international offering is more or less zero. The MEL-PER-LHR route, PER was/is merely a tech stop. There is no way Perth could sustain the PER-LHR on its own, especially with 1 stop competition. PER-JNB can easily fill daily 787/330, but will Qantas do it ... never.

If QF do purchase 321XLR, it will be to expand MEL and BNE into Asia. But they won't get much Asian traffic ... for some reason Southeast Asian upper middle class generally look down on narrowbody aircrafts, let's see if SQ's experiment works with rebranding Silk Air.
 
flyboysp
Posts: 411
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2007 9:43 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:08 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
Indeed 321XLR is the perfect aircraft of Qantas ... but remember they never bought the 757.

Qantas is not about destination expansion but ensuring the routes they fly is virtually fortified. It's a defensive business model but it works.

I am from Perth and it saddens me that their international offering is more or less zero. The MEL-PER-LHR route, PER was/is merely a tech stop. There is no way Perth could sustain the PER-LHR on its own, especially with 1 stop competition. PER-JNB can easily fill daily 787/330, but will Qantas do it ... never.

If QF do purchase 321XLR, it will be to expand MEL and BNE into Asia. But they won't get much Asian traffic ... for some reason Southeast Asian upper middle class generally look down on narrowbody aircrafts, let's see if SQ's experiment works with rebranding Silk Air.



With regards to QF flying PER-JNB, they wanted to do it, however a dispute between QF and Perth airport arose over Terminal usage.
 
QFA35K
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:11 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:25 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
T4thH wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

The order isn’t until 1Q22, this announcement will be for ‘exclusive bidder’ status or an LOI at the most. No debt would have been put down at that point.

See the A350 announcement in December 2019 for case in point. The announcement was nothing more than ‘we hope to order some A350s in the future’.



The announcement due this Thursday will name the preferred bidders for the 717 and 738 replacements, with negotiations to be finalised in the first half of next year. If the MAX is rejected by Qantas, then that will be a big announcement.

Always possible that if Airbus are selected to supply the A221 and A320neo family, that it may be part of a bigger discounted package, if the 12 A35Ks for PS are committed to in the first quarter of 2022.

With Perth-Rome announced overnight, there will be more 787s ordered in due course to keep Boeing happy enough.
 
oceanvikram
Posts: 135
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:13 pm

flyboysp wrote:
oceanvikram wrote:
Indeed 321XLR is the perfect aircraft of Qantas ... but remember they never bought the 757.

Qantas is not about destination expansion but ensuring the routes they fly is virtually fortified. It's a defensive business model but it works.

I am from Perth and it saddens me that their international offering is more or less zero. The MEL-PER-LHR route, PER was/is merely a tech stop. There is no way Perth could sustain the PER-LHR on its own, especially with 1 stop competition. PER-JNB can easily fill daily 787/330, but will Qantas do it ... never.

If QF do purchase 321XLR, it will be to expand MEL and BNE into Asia. But they won't get much Asian traffic ... for some reason Southeast Asian upper middle class generally look down on narrowbody aircrafts, let's see if SQ's experiment works with rebranding Silk Air.



With regards to QF flying PER-JNB, they wanted to do it, however a dispute between QF and Perth airport arose over Terminal usage.


True, however there is big enough market in Perth for year round widebody flights to Johannesburg. And that is the argument that Perth Airport is making to operate out of the international terminal. But QF want to get connecting traffic from east coast and therefore want to operate from their terminal.

For those who don't know much about Perth or Western Australia as whole, is that there is lack vision and risk appetite to make the city into a dynamic place. I reckon Perth is the world's largest village purely because of our village mentality. I kid you not if Perth Airport commence their grand plan, QF will be more than happy to comply and make Perth the transfer hub to CDG, FRA, JNB, TLV, LHR (even after they commence MEL/SYD-LHR) and seasonal flights like FCO (just announced) and maybe ATH and MAD. from the east coast of Australia.
 
Opus99
Posts: 3174
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:56 pm

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-12-15/

Airbus has won. Again. Boeing loses narrow body market share. Again.

Congratulations Airbus. The best plane won


But more widely what the KLM (soon to be order) and this order is that customers generally do not have faith in Boeing and will not for a long time. Given before the MAX crisis the MAX was Boeings fastest selling jet and has struggled to make headway out of the usual customers is telling. Boeing needed this to instil confidence IMO and I think pre max crisis they would’ve gotten it.
 
QFA35K
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:11 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:04 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-wins-order-renew-qantas-fleet-sources-2021-12-15/

Airbus has won. Again. Boeing loses narrow body market share. Again.

Congratulations Airbus. The best plane won



Yes, the best plane won this time. Previously Qantas was focused on saving money first, now after the strong turn around pre-Covid, it can afford to invest in the best planes, not just the cheapest.
 
PhilMcCrackin
Posts: 410
Joined: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:54 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:17 pm

The best plane won, time for Boeing to bring a clean sheet competitor to the market rather than reheating a 60 year old design.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4025
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:22 pm

I think people should stop saying the "best plane" won just because its an A321neo. Is it a great aircraft? Yes. But "best" varies by carrier based on its network an other factors, including cost. Could the A321neo be the "best" for Qantas? Certainly, but the general assumption that because it is the "best" plane that it must be the best for every carrier is false.
 
wingman
Posts: 4299
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 4:25 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:24 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
The best plane won, time for Boeing to bring a clean sheet competitor to the market rather than reheating a 60 year old design.


I agree. In the long run the faster the market sticks a fork in the 737 and the current executive team, the sooner Boeing enters rehab and tries to put the pieces of its old self together again. KLM should do them a favor, as should Ryanair, and tell Boeing not to show its face again until they’re clean and sober.
 
JonesNL
Posts: 660
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:26 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-wins-order-renew-qantas-fleet-sources-2021-12-15/

Airbus has won. Again. Boeing loses narrow body market share. Again.

Congratulations Airbus. The best plane won


But more widely what the KLM (soon to be order) and this order is that customers generally do not have faith in Boeing and will not for a long time. Given before the MAX crisis the MAX was Boeings fastest selling jet and has struggled to make headway out of the usual customers is telling. Boeing needed this to instil confidence IMO and I think pre max crisis they would’ve gotten it.


I hope they will announce the order mix as well in a couple of hours…
 
Opus99
Posts: 3174
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:28 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
I think people should stop saying the "best plane" won just because its an A321neo. Is it a great aircraft? Yes. But "best" varies by carrier based on its network an other factors, including cost. Could the A321neo be the "best" for Qantas? Certainly, but the general assumption that because it is the "best" plane that it must be the best for every carrier is false.

I mean yes. But the best plane won in this competition. That is competition for QFs network
 
SA280
Posts: 103
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:18 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:32 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
The best plane won, time for Boeing to bring a clean sheet competitor to the market rather than reheating a 60 year old design.

Wasn't this "time" 5 years ago, at least?
 
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 3038
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:48 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
I think people should stop saying the "best plane" won just because its an A321neo. Is it a great aircraft? Yes. But "best" varies by carrier based on its network an other factors, including cost. Could the A321neo be the "best" for Qantas? Certainly, but the general assumption that because it is the "best" plane that it must be the best for every carrier is false.


If it suits the majority of airlines, including a huge number of 'blue chip' companies and quite a few 'converted' operators, it's probably the best and most compelling product available in its segment. Doesn't necessarily mean the best in every situation, but the overall trend is quite clear.

Hopefully looking forward to seeing what QF do with their Airbus fleet.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2335
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:58 pm

I didn't expect the firm A220 orders, but am looking forward to trying them when they arrive.

Given that QF/Australian/TAA mainline has been Boeing narrowbody jet since the 1970s it seems quite a loss.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2910
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:58 pm

I won’t go into who have the better aircraft but - With The Group already having A320 Family order sitting at 28 x A321 LRs, 36 x A321 XLRs and 45 x A320 NEOs - this is just a top up, I’m not sure how much of a chance Boeing had to be honest. Especially with 350s on top, hard to make the max package work on a smaller scale with no ability to bid for the regional replacement either.

Couple of key snippets from the QF press release;

The order is in addition to Jetstar’s existing agreement with Airbus for over 100 aircraft in the A320neo family. Part of this new deal includes combining these two orders so that the Group can draw down on a total of 299 deliveries across both the A320 and A220 families as needed over the next decade and beyond for Qantas, QantasLink and Jetstar.

And this is key to QF:
expected to be placed with Airbus by the end of FY22, following discussions with employees about arrangements to operate the new aircraft types and a final decision by the Qantas Board.

They will use this order to some how push down costs, or drive efficiency’s for the new collective agreements. I wonder who will fly these aircraft? How it will be structured.
 
Cardude2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: Qantas to officially issue tender on narrowbody fleet replacement in coming days

Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:10 pm

what I did not expect was a mix of A220's. 20 firm A220-300 with options for the A220-100!

Boeing has lost one 737 operator and is about to loose another one (KLM is about to also make an order)

RIP Boeing morale
 
User avatar
77west
Posts: 1214
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 11:52 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:13 pm

I hope the A220's might be used to open up new trans tasman routes, would be awsome to be able to fly from some of the smaller NZ destinations direct.
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