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RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 889
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:48 am

SXDFC wrote:
Could an airline like Ryanair or any other airline that operates 50+ MAX with over 100 more on order cancel it’s remaining MAX, and sell off its current MAX for a NEO order? Has something like this ever been done before?

With Jetstar operating many Airbus aircraft, will they be assisting in training the Qantas crews on upcoming Airbus aircraft?

I think Lion Air Group comes to mind if you are talking about cancelling their MAX order for NEO, they have both in fleet now. Most of their fleet are leased any ways, they may face multiple lawsuits from their lessors though.

I do think training for both ground and air crew are part of the deal, it will be disbelief if Airbus does not do so.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 836
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:51 am

Boof02671 wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Well well, I have had an interesting discussion with a very senior pilot in Qantas.

The XLR will not be able to operate anything longer than SYD-CGK. The problem - crew hours. Anything longer than 8 hours is going to be out of the window as the 321XLR has no crew rest facilities. This limits us to an absolute maximum 3500nm.


Generally I take what pilots and flight attendants say with a grain of salt. Not saying you or your sources are incorrect, however they often don't know any of the behind the scenes work involved in acquiring new aircraft and any new contractual terms that are being drafted.

Airbus has also proposed crew rest facilities which are proven elsewhere too.

At US Airways back in the day out 767s not 757s had crew rest areas and they used them for US to Europe and other international destinations.

They just block seats for them to use.


QF A330s dont have crew rest facilities, just blocked seats.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14893
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:17 am

Rifitto wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Final question for some of you experts. What should we consider as a true range of the A321XLR in normal operations? I know its quote as 4600nm. For example, would SYD/MEL-PVG both at around 4300nm be a bit long?


The XLR is Basically a 321LR with a rear fixed fuel tank instead of the standard center tanks ,plus a tweaked flaps and icreased MTOW

so just take the longest flight LR is doing and give it an extra 60 min of fly time

Airbus specs give it a range of 7500 km (4000) but in reality it can't even do LIS-ORD which is only 6400 km (3470 nm)

rising it's MTOW by 4 tons and fuel capacity by 2.5 tons won't by magic give it +2000 km of range ,it's simply unrealistic
but it still remains capable and has no direct competitor


its only 1400 extra kilometers, not 2k, and when does a north-south route like SYD-PVG ever have 100+ knot headwinds for much of the way like LIS-ORD has?

So its not 1400km extra distance to cover, nor 2000 either, but just about one hour. A couple of 100 Kg less weight (probably), 2.8t more fuel and 4t of extra TOW plus whatever improvements PW and CFM can do between 2018 and 2023 are certainly good for one extra hour of flight time.

ESAD for LIS-ORD in the moment is like what? 7700km? That is a some 300km beyond Airbus Brochure range for the LR. For SYD-PVG? 8400Km? That is 50 minutes of cruise.. and 300km within brochure range.

best regards
Thomas
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 974
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:39 am

Boof02671 wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
log0008 wrote:
Well well, I have had an interesting discussion with a very senior pilot in Qantas.

The XLR will not be able to operate anything longer than SYD-CGK. The problem - crew hours. Anything longer than 8 hours is going to be out of the window as the 321XLR has no crew rest facilities. This limits us to an absolute maximum 3500nm.


Generally I take what pilots and flight attendants say with a grain of salt. Not saying you or your sources are incorrect, however they often don't know any of the behind the scenes work involved in acquiring new aircraft and any new contractual terms that are being drafted.

Airbus has also proposed crew rest facilities which are proven elsewhere too.

At US Airways back in the day out 767s not 757s had crew rest areas and they used them for US to Europe and other international destinations.

They just block seats for them to use.


I think from what I remember some (if not most) QF 763s in the international config also had seats blocked off for the crew to use from memory when I last flew the QF 763s decades ago between SYD and MNL and between BNE and HKG. Not sure if QF had separate arrangements for each sub fleets for 763s and/or had some 'oddballs' (the ex-BA 763s aside) in the QF 763 fleet and whether if they had changed it since then.
 
moa999
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Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:01 pm

The youngest 737s will still be around well into the 2030s
 
RalXWB
Posts: 562
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:36 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:15 pm

moa999 wrote:
The youngest 737s will still be around well into the 2030s


Not if they exercise all of their options before that timeframe.
 
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ClassicLover
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:36 pm

RalXWB wrote:
moa999 wrote:
The youngest 737s will still be around well into the 2030s


Not if they exercise all of their options before that timeframe.


They won't, they'll likely do them gradually. Qantas retires aircraft at around 20 years, due to the way depreciation works in Australia. If they could depreciate their aircraft faster (like other airlines are permitted to do under local laws), they would retire them faster.

Eight of the Boeing 737-800s came in 2017-2018, meaning a 2037-2038 retirement. 29 arrived 2011-2014, meaning 2031-2034 retirements. Five came in 2008, so 2028. All the rest were 2002-2006, which will be replaced first.

With only eight coming late in the piece, you might see them retired with the 2031-2034 tranche, but it still means we will see the 737s in service for at least 8 more years until the 2030s start.
 
DartHerald
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:22 pm

There must be a point, though, where the pool of pilots and mechanics etc. needed to maintain a small fleet of 737-800 of whatever age becomes uneconomical when all else is airbus and that might be before the airframe reaches the end of its economic life.
 
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JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1978
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:28 pm

Are all of QF's NGs owned? If any are leased they could be returned sooner.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:02 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
moa999 wrote:
The youngest 737s will still be around well into the 2030s


Not if they exercise all of their options before that timeframe.


They won't, they'll likely do them gradually. Qantas retires aircraft at around 20 years, due to the way depreciation works in Australia. If they could depreciate their aircraft faster (like other airlines are permitted to do under local laws), they would retire them faster.

Eight of the Boeing 737-800s came in 2017-2018, meaning a 2037-2038 retirement. 29 arrived 2011-2014, meaning 2031-2034 retirements. Five came in 2008, so 2028. All the rest were 2002-2006, which will be replaced first.

With only eight coming late in the piece, you might see them retired with the 2031-2034 tranche, but it still means we will see the 737s in service for at least 8 more years until the 2030s start.


The eight you talk about from 2017/18 were the ones returning from Jetconnect built in 2008/09.

I agree they will retire them gradually, it is possible the last several might be retired on the same day if replacements have been delivered already or it’s the end of the NW season or something with a little less flying planned for the following season.

There is probably a good reason the new Airbuses are to be delivered through 2034 to coincide with the last 738 retirements.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:05 pm

DartHerald wrote:
There must be a point, though, where the pool of pilots and mechanics etc. needed to maintain a small fleet of 737-800 of whatever age becomes uneconomical when all else is airbus and that might be before the airframe reaches the end of its economic life.


Not necessarily given the 738 is already in the fleet and the pilots are already trained on the type. They will be retired gradually with likely the last several frames retired on the same day or very close to each other, but again it depends on new deliveries to replace them.
 
Cardude2
Posts: 674
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
When Delta announced just over a year ago they were retiring the 717s, that doomed the type.
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-a ... 767-300er/

Delta is only keeping 54 of the 717s in service.
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-a ... 767-300er/

Delta used to have a fleet of 91 of the 717s:
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-t ... 717-fleet/

With a retirement date about 5 years after the announcement, that implies no more heavy maintenance visits for the type sometime shortly after the announcement; only C-checks should be expected as there are plenty of frames to cycle through to maintain approximately 54 flying. Considering there are only 39 other 717s flying, that leaves no economy of scale for parts and maintenance.
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-b717.htm

Honestly, with only 156 built, the type was always limping along on parts support with AirTran and later Delta supporting the type through volume. THe 2nd and above link imply only 93 flying. That is brutal on parts support cost if you even just need to rebuild parts (forget the cost of buying new parts, that will be excessive).

Qantas really had no choice. I suspect the 'factory fresh aircraft' to be delivered starting end of 2023 will be to replace 717s in need of pricey service:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-b717.htm

Airlines expected to keep going off AA releasing MD-80 parts for their fleets, instead AA consumed quite a bit of its stores and so did DL forcing Allegiant to move on from the type. I suspect the same will happen with Qantas and Hawaiian. It is a great plane, until you look at fuel burn and engine over-haul costs. Not the cost per overhaul, but rather how frequently overhauls are required. The airframe maintenance and dispatch reliability is (and was) excellent, this link goes into the level of detail I love to discuss:
https://www.boeing.com/commercial/aerom ... story.html

I suspect 717 operators were waiting for Pratt/Airbus (mostly, in my opinion Pratt) to improve A220 dispatch reliability. Now Pratt claims 99.98% dispatch reliability on the GTFs (1st link below). The A220 now has 99.85% dispatch reliability (2nd link below in thread discussion) versus many aircraft at 99.5% dispatch reliability. As discussed in that thread, it appears 99.8% dispatch reliability is the new expected level (AFAIK, both the MAX and NEO achieve that).

https://www.aero-mag.com/pratt-whitney- ... -23122020/
viewtopic.php?t=1427277

So Qantas will get a more reliable aircraft and I assume they crunched all the numbers to come to their purchase decision. Fuel burn will certainly be less. With predictive maintenance, I fully expect maintenance expenses for both the aircraft and airframe to be less (but I have no link to confirm that). I believe the range on the A220 will give Qantas a lot more flexibility in operations and thus I fully expect the A220s to fly many more hours per day/month/year than the 717s in part because their range enables more missions and in part the variable costs will be enough lower to make more routes profitable.



Lightsaber


this is perfect, also reposted some of this citing you in the Hawaiian 717 retirement thread I made. viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1467979&p=23088347#p23088347
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 1197
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Will be sad to see 717s go.

When Delta announced just over a year ago they were retiring the 717s, that doomed the type.
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-a ... 767-300er/

Delta is only keeping 54 of the 717s in service.
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-a ... 767-300er/

Delta used to have a fleet of 91 of the 717s:
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-t ... 717-fleet/

With a retirement date about 5 years after the announcement, that implies no more heavy maintenance visits for the type sometime shortly after the announcement; only C-checks should be expected as there are plenty of frames to cycle through to maintain approximately 54 flying. Considering there are only 39 other 717s flying, that leaves no economy of scale for parts and maintenance.
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-b717.htm

Honestly, with only 156 built, the type was always limping along on parts support with AirTran and later Delta supporting the type through volume. THe 2nd and above link imply only 93 flying. That is brutal on parts support cost if you even just need to rebuild parts (forget the cost of buying new parts, that will be excessive).

Qantas really had no choice. I suspect the 'factory fresh aircraft' to be delivered starting end of 2023 will be to replace 717s in need of pricey service:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-b717.htm

Airlines expected to keep going off AA releasing MD-80 parts for their fleets, instead AA consumed quite a bit of its stores and so did DL forcing Allegiant to move on from the type. I suspect the same will happen with Qantas and Hawaiian. It is a great plane, until you look at fuel burn and engine over-haul costs. Not the cost per overhaul, but rather how frequently overhauls are required. The airframe maintenance and dispatch reliability is (and was) excellent, this link goes into the level of detail I love to discuss:
https://www.boeing.com/commercial/aerom ... story.html

I suspect 717 operators were waiting for Pratt/Airbus (mostly, in my opinion Pratt) to improve A220 dispatch reliability. Now Pratt claims 99.98% dispatch reliability on the GTFs (1st link below). The A220 now has 99.85% dispatch reliability (2nd link below in thread discussion) versus many aircraft at 99.5% dispatch reliability. As discussed in that thread, it appears 99.8% dispatch reliability is the new expected level (AFAIK, both the MAX and NEO achieve that).

https://www.aero-mag.com/pratt-whitney- ... -23122020/
viewtopic.php?t=1427277

So Qantas will get a more reliable aircraft and I assume they crunched all the numbers to come to their purchase decision. Fuel burn will certainly be less. With predictive maintenance, I fully expect maintenance expenses for both the aircraft and airframe to be less (but I have no link to confirm that). I believe the range on the A220 will give Qantas a lot more flexibility in operations and thus I fully expect the A220s to fly many more hours per day/month/year than the 717s in part because their range enables more missions and in part the variable costs will be enough lower to make more routes profitable.

I'm actually surprised how few A220s were purchased. I speculate this is because Qantas is both being cautious and also likes the E-jets for low utilization duty. JetBlue is using the 20% to 30% lower seat costs of the A220 to stimulate flying. Considering the E-jets pushed the 717 out of the market, slide 7 shows the E-jets will probably be for low utilization duty and quite possibly Qantas expects to pick them up cheap enough to replace the Fokkers for low utilization duty (e.g., mine charters)? (I don't know, I'm purely speculating.)
http://investor.jetblue.com/~/media/Fil ... update.pdf

Lightsaber


It had to happen sooner or later, just a shame to see less variety on the sky.
 
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Rifitto
Posts: 71
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:21 am

tommy1808 wrote:
its only 1400 extra kilometers, not 2k, and when does a north-south route like SYD-PVG ever have 100+ knot headwinds for much of the way like LIS-ORD has?

So its not 1400km extra distance to cover, nor 2000 either, but just about one hour. A couple of 100 Kg less weight (probably), 2.8t more fuel and 4t of extra TOW plus whatever improvements PW and CFM can do between 2018 and 2023 are certainly good for one extra hour of flight time.

ESAD for LIS-ORD in the moment is like what? 7700km? That is a some 300km beyond Airbus Brochure range for the LR. For SYD-PVG? 8400Km? That is 50 minutes of cruise.. and 300km within brochure range.

best regards
Thomas


7700 km ESAD ?This doesn't seem realistic to me, you used average 80 kn headwinds if i'm not mistaken ,that's not the case if you look at the winds map

actually the early stages of flight path face tailwinds up to 40 kn at some points ,the real struggle starts in the final half while approaching the US east coast ,
80 kn is too exaggerated ,David Neeleman wouldn't complain publicly for nothing

FI is sending a MAX8 to Denver in similar conditions nearing 8 hours flight time ,if we apply the same formula to it ,ESAD will be 6750 km ,this is 200 km over the published range ,
either the max is over performing or the LR specs are overrated ,or maybe both
 
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MrHMSH
Posts: 3022
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:48 am

Rifitto wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
its only 1400 extra kilometers, not 2k, and when does a north-south route like SYD-PVG ever have 100+ knot headwinds for much of the way like LIS-ORD has?

So its not 1400km extra distance to cover, nor 2000 either, but just about one hour. A couple of 100 Kg less weight (probably), 2.8t more fuel and 4t of extra TOW plus whatever improvements PW and CFM can do between 2018 and 2023 are certainly good for one extra hour of flight time.

ESAD for LIS-ORD in the moment is like what? 7700km? That is a some 300km beyond Airbus Brochure range for the LR. For SYD-PVG? 8400Km? That is 50 minutes of cruise.. and 300km within brochure range.

best regards
Thomas


7700 km ESAD ?This doesn't seem realistic to me, you used average 80 kn headwinds if i'm not mistaken ,that's not the case if you look at the winds map

actually the early stages of flight path face tailwinds up to 40 kn at some points ,the real struggle starts in the final half while approaching the US east coast ,
80 kn is too exaggerated ,David Neeleman wouldn't complain publicly for nothing

FI is sending a MAX8 to Denver in similar conditions nearing 8 hours flight time ,if we apply the same formula to it ,ESAD will be 6750 km ,this is 200 km over the published range ,
either the max is over performing or the LR specs are overrated ,or maybe both


You're pinning quite a lot on a single comment from Neeleman, but he doesn't describe how much the shortfall is and how much he expected it to be. This context would be helpful.

Seems that Airbus did tests to simulate long range flying:

Test flights included a Leap-powered, long range 4,100 nmi (7,600 km) flight by great circle distance, flown in near 11 h and the equivalent of 162 passengers over 4,700 nmi (8,700 km) including headwinds, with five crew and 11 technicians.


http://www.flightglobal.com/systems-and ... 76.article

TP put 198 seats in their dense A321LR and 171 in their lower dense A321LR, maybe they're a little heavy, the plane is capable but sometimes you do need to lower the density to get that range. QF manage it.
 
kimshep
Posts: 92
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:13 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:51 am

ClassicLover wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
moa999 wrote:
The youngest 737s will still be around well into the 2030s


Not if they exercise all of their options before that timeframe.


They won't, they'll likely do them gradually. Qantas retires aircraft at around 20 years, due to the way depreciation works in Australia. If they could depreciate their aircraft faster (like other airlines are permitted to do under local laws), they would retire them faster.


Whilst I tend to agree that the B737-800's will be written down slowly (as you've stated), I would add the following update:

It is true that QF has historically depreciated it's assets over a 20 year period, which had been a point of contention between QF and the enforced Australian Federal Government policy - compared with SQ whose government - for years - has allowed a more generous and efficient 12 year depreciation.

However, a number of changes have taken place at QF over the past few years, which has seen this Australian Govt policy change somewhat. It is noticeable that QF - like many global corporations - has adopted international accounting standards, rather than the more archaic previous standard. I also suspect that QF's previous policy representations on the matter to the Federal Government have had some effect.

This can directly be seen in the recent two-stage write-down / off of QF's entire twelve (12) frame A380-800 fleet, which controversially caused a significant AU$2 billion 'paper' loss. These frames were nowhere near 20 years old - first frame delivery 2007 and later up to 2014 (IINM) - and are still part of the current QF fleet. I would also point out that the remaining six (6) B747-438ER's were also written off, well before being retired.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1769
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:57 am

kimshep wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
RalXWB wrote:

Not if they exercise all of their options before that timeframe.


They won't, they'll likely do them gradually. Qantas retires aircraft at around 20 years, due to the way depreciation works in Australia. If they could depreciate their aircraft faster (like other airlines are permitted to do under local laws), they would retire them faster.


Whilst I tend to agree that the B737-800's will be written down slowly (as you've stated), I would add the following update:

It is true that QF has historically depreciated it's assets over a 20 year period, which had been a point of contention between QF and the enforced Australian Federal Government policy - compared with SQ whose government - for years - has allowed a more generous and efficient 12 year depreciation.

However, a number of changes have taken place at QF over the past few years, which has seen this Australian Govt policy change somewhat. It is noticeable that QF - like many global corporations - has adopted international accounting standards, rather than the more archaic previous standard. I also suspect that QF's previous policy representations on the matter to the Federal Government have had some effect.

This can directly be seen in the recent two-stage write-down / off of QF's entire twelve (12) frame A380-800 fleet, which controversially caused a significant AU$2 billion 'paper' loss. These frames were nowhere near 20 years old - first frame delivery 2007 and later up to 2014 (IINM) - and are still part of the current QF fleet. I would also point out that the remaining six (6) B747-438ER's were also written off, well before being retired.


Depreciation can be accelerated, and impairments triggered, if the useful life of the asset declines. You can’t arbitrarily decided to switch depreciation for some airplanes from 20 to 12 unless you’re going to remove the fleet in 12 years.

Accounting is highly structured and incredibly frustrating.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 974
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:08 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Are all of QF's NGs owned? If any are leased they could be returned sooner.


Majority of the QF 738s are owned (assuming they're not encumbered/mortgaged). There are a small handful of leased units though.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 3209
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:42 am

This can directly be seen in the recent two-stage write-down / off of QF's entire twelve (12) frame A380-800 fleet, which controversially caused a significant AU$2 billion 'paper' loss. These frames were nowhere near 20 years old - first frame delivery 2007 and later up to 2014 (IINM) - and are still part of the current QF fleet. I would also point out that the remaining six (6) B747-438ER's were also written off, well before being retired.

The writedown of the A380s would not have been deductible for tax; it was a book entry. This will mean QF has a timing difference between the book and tax values of the A380s. As the 744ERs were removed from the fleet, they have been disposed of so the differences will be eliminated with the tax loss larger than the book loss. A similar situation will occur for the 2 A380s being scrapped.
 
moa999
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:46 am

sxf24 wrote:

It is true that QF has historically depreciated it's assets over a 20 year period, which had been a point of contention between QF and the enforced Australian Federal Government policy - compared with SQ whose government - for years - has allowed a more generous and efficient 12 year depreciation.

Accounting is highly structured and incredibly frustrating.


While. Yes. That's because in the A380s case they could prove that the airframes had limited value in the marketplace (per SQ lessors sales).

But the Tax office effectively sets the tax depreciation policy which is what matters, and in Oz other than in exceptional circumstances it's 20yrs.

As above - while it created the loss, it also creates a meaningful difference between QFs accounting tax and cash tax.
 
LTEN11
Posts: 447
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:09 am

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:57 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Rifitto wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
its only 1400 extra kilometers, not 2k, and when does a north-south route like SYD-PVG ever have 100+ knot headwinds for much of the way like LIS-ORD has?

So its not 1400km extra distance to cover, nor 2000 either, but just about one hour. A couple of 100 Kg less weight (probably), 2.8t more fuel and 4t of extra TOW plus whatever improvements PW and CFM can do between 2018 and 2023 are certainly good for one extra hour of flight time.

ESAD for LIS-ORD in the moment is like what? 7700km? That is a some 300km beyond Airbus Brochure range for the LR. For SYD-PVG? 8400Km? That is 50 minutes of cruise.. and 300km within brochure range.

best regards
Thomas


7700 km ESAD ?This doesn't seem realistic to me, you used average 80 kn headwinds if i'm not mistaken ,that's not the case if you look at the winds map

actually the early stages of flight path face tailwinds up to 40 kn at some points ,the real struggle starts in the final half while approaching the US east coast ,
80 kn is too exaggerated ,David Neeleman wouldn't complain publicly for nothing

FI is sending a MAX8 to Denver in similar conditions nearing 8 hours flight time ,if we apply the same formula to it ,ESAD will be 6750 km ,this is 200 km over the published range ,
either the max is over performing or the LR specs are overrated ,or maybe both


You're pinning quite a lot on a single comment from Neeleman, but he doesn't describe how much the shortfall is and how much he expected it to be. This context would be helpful.

Seems that Airbus did tests to simulate long range flying:

Test flights included a Leap-powered, long range 4,100 nmi (7,600 km) flight by great circle distance, flown in near 11 h and the equivalent of 162 passengers over 4,700 nmi (8,700 km) including headwinds, with five crew and 11 technicians.


http://www.flightglobal.com/systems-and ... 76.article

TP put 198 seats in their dense A321LR and 171 in their lower dense A321LR, maybe they're a little heavy, the plane is capable but sometimes you do need to lower the density to get that range. QF manage it.


Just curious, what are you referring to with "QF manage it" ?

QF are not going to send a 321XLR to PVG, at least from SYD/MEL. There is far to much cargo carried and a 160-170 seat aircraft on a 9 hour sector just won't cut it. It's a 330/787/350/777 route for volumes of passengers and cargo carried.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14893
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:41 pm

Rifitto wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
its only 1400 extra kilometers, not 2k, and when does a north-south route like SYD-PVG ever have 100+ knot headwinds for much of the way like LIS-ORD has?

So its not 1400km extra distance to cover, nor 2000 either, but just about one hour. A couple of 100 Kg less weight (probably), 2.8t more fuel and 4t of extra TOW plus whatever improvements PW and CFM can do between 2018 and 2023 are certainly good for one extra hour of flight time.

ESAD for LIS-ORD in the moment is like what? 7700km? That is a some 300km beyond Airbus Brochure range for the LR. For SYD-PVG? 8400Km? That is 50 minutes of cruise.. and 300km within brochure range.

best regards
Thomas


7700 km ESAD ?This doesn't seem realistic to me, you used average 80 kn headwinds if i'm not mistaken ,that's not the case if you look at the winds map

actually the early stages of flight path face tailwinds up to 40 kn at some points ,the real struggle starts in the final half while approaching the US east coast ,
80 kn is too exaggerated ,


I used actual real world flight times from the last couple of days from flight radar to work out the ESAD.

Best regards
Thomas
 
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vhtje
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:30 pm

Fun fact: TN signed a LOI for A320s in the late 1980s. I have no idea why they never took them up, but given how AN’s dual type narrow body mainline fleet strategy throughout the 1990s added significantly to their costs and was ultimately one factor in their demise (of many, many factors, I hasten to add), it seems wise that TN, and then QF, stuck with 737s.

Different times, though, obviously.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:51 pm

vhtje wrote:
Fun fact: TN signed a LOI for A320s in the late 1980s. I have no idea why they never took them up, but given how AN’s dual type narrow body mainline fleet strategy throughout the 1990s added significantly to their costs and was ultimately one factor in their demise (of many, many factors, I hasten to add), it seems wise that TN, and then QF, stuck with 737s.


I remember seeing the picture of the proposed A320 in TAA's camel hump livery in Australian Aviation magazine when I was a kid. I think it may have been selected prior to the Boeing 737 order, because of that livery - they changed to Australian Airlines in 1986 when the 737 arrived, so that picture would be from before then. I don't believe they were going to do a dual fleet like Ansett (who wanted to operate every aircraft in existence, and pretty much did). I think the 737 was eventually selected instead, probably due to the earlier availability of delivery slots.

TAA's (then Australian Airlines, now Qantas domestic) procurement, fleet planning and technical people were some of the best in the business. Had they not been constrained by the regulatory system of the time, we would have seen some very different aircraft in Australian domestic service, most notably the Caravelle.
 
Gangurru
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:05 pm

Here's an interesting link to the early years of the A320 in Australian skies. It's got the TAA story covered.

I surprised myself to realise how many decades the A320 has been around.

https://www.yesterdaysairlines.com/airl ... -the-1990s
 
QFA35K
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:37 am

ClassicLover wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
moa999 wrote:
The youngest 737s will still be around well into the 2030s


Not if they exercise all of their options before that timeframe.


They won't, they'll likely do them gradually. Qantas retires aircraft at around 20 years, due to the way depreciation works in Australia. If they could depreciate their aircraft faster (like other airlines are permitted to do under local laws), they would retire them faster.


Qantas can write them off faster under Australian tax law - if their carrying value is above current replacement cost. Can’t imaging 738s will hold their value.

They did it with some of the 747s, to take advantage of the big operational loss around 2015. Nobody notices a big extra write down when the headline is a big operational loss.

So at any time, if the value that their 738s are being carried at (cost less depreciation to date), is greater than what they could replace them with of similar age etc ie the markets drops then they can write off the difference, or sell them, with a loss recognised. They are required to do so or the auditor could qualify the audit opinion on the financial statements.

The bottom line is Mr Joyce won’t be hanging on to his old 738s unnecessarily when he has nice new flexible A320 family aircraft to carry customers, including those avoiding VA’s and Bonza’s MAX 737s.

Unfortunately for Boeing, another example of them getting exactly what they deserve (re 737 Max, KC-46A and 787).
 
oschkosch
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 8:56 am

Congrats to Qantas and Airbus, a lovely order plus so many options.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:48 am

Gangurru wrote:
Here's an interesting link to the early years of the A320 in Australian skies. It's got the TAA story covered.

I surprised myself to realise how many decades the A320 has been around.

https://www.yesterdaysairlines.com/airl ... -the-1990s


Thank you for this, interesting to get a refresher on it. I was unaware they were planning dual fleets - 737 to replace DC-9 and A320 to replace the 727, so it's good to know.
 
timtam
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:29 pm

738 exit won't be delayed by the depreciation rules. If anything, the depreciation rules may drive a faster exit because old aircraft are over valued on the balance sheet and a shrewd CEO/CFO can improve the future performance of the business and achieve their bonuses by taking an opportune non cash writeoff and replacing old aircraft with more efficient new aircraft with little net change in overall depreciation.

Fuel savings of 15-20%, much lower maintenance costs on new aircraft, efficiencies from operating, crewing and maintaining one less type and the general preference of passengers to travel on newer aircraft with newer fitouts will hasten the exit of the 738.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:33 pm

timtam wrote:
Fuel savings of 15-20%, much lower maintenance costs on new aircraft, efficiencies from operating, crewing and maintaining one less type and the general preference of passengers to travel on newer aircraft with newer fitouts will hasten the exit of the 738.


Yes, that sounds pretty much correct and logical. Why should they hang on to the old planes much longer than necessary?



Gesendet von meinem SM-G781B mit Tapatalk
 
evanb
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:12 pm

timtam wrote:
738 exit won't be delayed by the depreciation rules. If anything, the depreciation rules may drive a faster exit because old aircraft are over valued on the balance sheet and a shrewd CEO/CFO can improve the future performance of the business and achieve their bonuses by taking an opportune non cash writeoff and replacing old aircraft with more efficient new aircraft with little net change in overall depreciation.

Fuel savings of 15-20%, much lower maintenance costs on new aircraft, efficiencies from operating, crewing and maintaining one less type and the general preference of passengers to travel on newer aircraft with newer fitouts will hasten the exit of the 738.


The longevity of aircraft in a fleet are not only determined by age, but by a combination of age, cycles and hours. Other than the engines (which is driven more by hours), cycles are probably the biggest driver of longevity of an aircraft. One thing to keep in mind is that QF B738s have clocked up relatively high cycles for their age which would likely increase the incentives for QF to replace them relatively earlier than people might expect. Essentially, they're well-used for their age. The plethora of sub 2 hour sectors in the QF short haul network (e.g. SYD-MEL-SYD, SYD-BNE-SYD, SYD-ADL-SYD, MEL-ADL-MEL, MEL-BNE-MEL and most others in the south-east) significantly reduce the useful life of a QF B738 compared to airlines whose average stage length is longer.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:55 pm

Overhead costs and commonality might force the last 15-20 737s out sooner either way.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:03 pm

evanb wrote:
timtam wrote:
738 exit won't be delayed by the depreciation rules. If anything, the depreciation rules may drive a faster exit because old aircraft are over valued on the balance sheet and a shrewd CEO/CFO can improve the future performance of the business and achieve their bonuses by taking an opportune non cash writeoff and replacing old aircraft with more efficient new aircraft with little net change in overall depreciation.

Fuel savings of 15-20%, much lower maintenance costs on new aircraft, efficiencies from operating, crewing and maintaining one less type and the general preference of passengers to travel on newer aircraft with newer fitouts will hasten the exit of the 738.


The longevity of aircraft in a fleet are not only determined by age, but by a combination of age, cycles and hours. Other than the engines (which is driven more by hours), cycles are probably the biggest driver of longevity of an aircraft. One thing to keep in mind is that QF B738s have clocked up relatively high cycles for their age which would likely increase the incentives for QF to replace them relatively earlier than people might expect. Essentially, they're well-used for their age. The plethora of sub 2 hour sectors in the QF short haul network (e.g. SYD-MEL-SYD, SYD-BNE-SYD, SYD-ADL-SYD, MEL-ADL-MEL, MEL-BNE-MEL and most others in the south-east) significantly reduce the useful life of a QF B738 compared to airlines whose average stage length is longer.


Of course all those short sectors are balanced out with the services to PER/DRW/CNS/AKL/WLG/CHC/DPS/NAN/ASP etc. They rotate the fleet to balance out the cycles, so it's not likely that QF 737's are going to have any higher cycles than any other airline for similar aged aircraft.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:08 pm

I think this discussion about depreciation and its role in aircraft replacement might be a little bit too overstated. Once the asset is sold, for what QF will make sure is as best a price they can get, an adjusting amount will be recorded and if the sale price is greater than the depreciated price, tax will be paid on the profit between book and tax values.

All faster depreciation (Singapore style) does is reduce tax in the early years of the assets life, but there may be a sting later on in the tail of the asset life if the depreciation has been to hard/aggressive in the earlier part of its life.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:46 pm

qf2220 wrote:
I think this discussion about depreciation and its role in aircraft replacement might be a little bit too overstated. Once the asset is sold, for what QF will make sure is as best a price they can get, an adjusting amount will be recorded and if the sale price is greater than the depreciated price, tax will be paid on the profit between book and tax values.

All faster depreciation (Singapore style) does is reduce tax in the early years of the assets life, but there may be a sting later on in the tail of the asset life if the depreciation has been to hard/aggressive in the earlier part of its life.

That is a little bit mixed up but I get what you are trying to say. For taxable profit purposes, the difference between the sale price and the tax written down value is taxable or deductible. For accounting profit purposes, a gain or loss will be recorded on the difference between the sales price and the book written down value of the asset.

It is possible that the tax and book written down values are the same but, where QF has taken advantage of a tax depreciation incentive, the tax value may be less than the book value. Alternatively, where QF has written down an asset (such as A380 fleet) the book value will be less than the tax value.

Accelerated depreciation is an economic incentive that many countries use. Singapore has done it for a long time and, since the pandemic, Australia has offered instant capital asset write off for assets up to $150K for businesses with turnovers under $5Bn. For business, this has a cash flow benefit in the short term. For government, there is a cost in the current year but, with interest rates very low, there is realistically little cost to them over the life of the asset as the instantly depreciated asset has no depreciation deductions after year 1.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:55 pm

To be blunt, I think the discussion of depreciation is a little overwrought. The oldest frames are already turning 20, and assuming that the initial tranche of deliveries are made in the 2023-2025 timeframe all of the VXx frames will be depreciated. I honestly cannot see a situation where the 30-odd later deliveries are not retained through this decade, and therefore will also be largely depreciated by the time they are replaced.

Note that they have only made firm orders for 20 A321s (and 20 A220s to replace 19 717s). The rest are options to be converted over time, similar to the 787s, which is a strong indication that they aren’t planning a rapid drawdown.
 
evanb
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:35 am

LTEN11 wrote:
Of course all those short sectors are balanced out with the services to PER/DRW/CNS/AKL/WLG/CHC/DPS/NAN/ASP etc. They rotate the fleet to balance out the cycles, so it's not likely that QF 737's are going to have any higher cycles than any other airline for similar aged aircraft.


Indeed, they are balanced out, not only for cycles, but for utilisation optimisation. However, it's just the sheer number of those short sectors, particularly between Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide relative to the longer sectors that mean that they cannot get entirely balanced out. While Perth is also a big market, it has a lower concentration of B738 flights on the longer stages since many Perth-East Coast flights are flown by A330s. You simply can't compare the nearly 30 daily flights on SYD-MEL-SYD (overwhelmingly B738) to the twice daily SYD-CNS-SYD (some of which are also flown on A330s). The QF B738 network is dramatically biased too short sectors. There is simply not enough flying of longer sectors to compensate for it entirety. The result is that QF's B738's average about 4.6 cycles per day. This compares to about 3.7 in the US. Over 20 years, this can result in about 7,000 more sectors for a QF B738 than AA or DL.

It's this "quirk" that resulted in all but one or two of the B734s retired by QF around the 20 year mark ending up as freighters (most freighters will end up on low utilisation schedules).
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:08 am

evanb wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
Of course all those short sectors are balanced out with the services to PER/DRW/CNS/AKL/WLG/CHC/DPS/NAN/ASP etc. They rotate the fleet to balance out the cycles, so it's not likely that QF 737's are going to have any higher cycles than any other airline for similar aged aircraft.


Indeed, they are balanced out, not only for cycles, but for utilisation optimisation. However, it's just the sheer number of those short sectors, particularly between Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide relative to the longer sectors that mean that they cannot get entirely balanced out. While Perth is also a big market, it has a lower concentration of B738 flights on the longer stages since many Perth-East Coast flights are flown by A330s. You simply can't compare the nearly 30 daily flights on SYD-MEL-SYD (overwhelmingly B738) to the twice daily SYD-CNS-SYD (some of which are also flown on A330s). The QF B738 network is dramatically biased too short sectors. There is simply not enough flying of longer sectors to compensate for it entirety. The result is that QF's B738's average about 4.6 cycles per day. This compares to about 3.7 in the US. Over 20 years, this can result in about 7,000 more sectors for a QF B738 than AA or DL.

It's this "quirk" that resulted in all but one or two of the B734s retired by QF around the 20 year mark ending up as freighters (most freighters will end up on low utilisation schedules).


Its not entirely balanced out as the frames with the IFE screens tend to get used on the longer flight sectors. The older frames without them hardly ever get used on PER or DRW flights. There are also (at least) two different thrust ratings on the 737 fleet with the higher thrust rating needed for certain sectors.
 
smi0006
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:30 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
evanb wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
Of course all those short sectors are balanced out with the services to PER/DRW/CNS/AKL/WLG/CHC/DPS/NAN/ASP etc. They rotate the fleet to balance out the cycles, so it's not likely that QF 737's are going to have any higher cycles than any other airline for similar aged aircraft.


Indeed, they are balanced out, not only for cycles, but for utilisation optimisation. However, it's just the sheer number of those short sectors, particularly between Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide relative to the longer sectors that mean that they cannot get entirely balanced out. While Perth is also a big market, it has a lower concentration of B738 flights on the longer stages since many Perth-East Coast flights are flown by A330s. You simply can't compare the nearly 30 daily flights on SYD-MEL-SYD (overwhelmingly B738) to the twice daily SYD-CNS-SYD (some of which are also flown on A330s). The QF B738 network is dramatically biased too short sectors. There is simply not enough flying of longer sectors to compensate for it entirety. The result is that QF's B738's average about 4.6 cycles per day. This compares to about 3.7 in the US. Over 20 years, this can result in about 7,000 more sectors for a QF B738 than AA or DL.

It's this "quirk" that resulted in all but one or two of the B734s retired by QF around the 20 year mark ending up as freighters (most freighters will end up on low utilisation schedules).


Its not entirely balanced out as the frames with the IFE screens tend to get used on the longer flight sectors. The older frames without them hardly ever get used on PER or DRW flights. There are also (at least) two different thrust ratings on the 737 fleet with the higher thrust rating needed for certain sectors.


Aren’t some but all, also fitted with life rafts in the ceiling for Tasman/PI operations?

Didn’t know about the thrust rating is this purely for longer sectors?
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:45 am

smi0006 wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
evanb wrote:

Indeed, they are balanced out, not only for cycles, but for utilisation optimisation. However, it's just the sheer number of those short sectors, particularly between Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide relative to the longer sectors that mean that they cannot get entirely balanced out. While Perth is also a big market, it has a lower concentration of B738 flights on the longer stages since many Perth-East Coast flights are flown by A330s. You simply can't compare the nearly 30 daily flights on SYD-MEL-SYD (overwhelmingly B738) to the twice daily SYD-CNS-SYD (some of which are also flown on A330s). The QF B738 network is dramatically biased too short sectors. There is simply not enough flying of longer sectors to compensate for it entirety. The result is that QF's B738's average about 4.6 cycles per day. This compares to about 3.7 in the US. Over 20 years, this can result in about 7,000 more sectors for a QF B738 than AA or DL.

It's this "quirk" that resulted in all but one or two of the B734s retired by QF around the 20 year mark ending up as freighters (most freighters will end up on low utilisation schedules).


Its not entirely balanced out as the frames with the IFE screens tend to get used on the longer flight sectors. The older frames without them hardly ever get used on PER or DRW flights. There are also (at least) two different thrust ratings on the 737 fleet with the higher thrust rating needed for certain sectors.


Aren’t some but all, also fitted with life rafts in the ceiling for Tasman/PI operations?

Didn’t know about the thrust rating is this purely for longer sectors?


Longer sectors but also airfield performance. The older aircraft are rated to 24K while the newer ones are 26K. There is also the short field performance upgrade.
 
log0008
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 6:39 am

Another JQ 788 coming out of storage, VH-VKF is currently inbound to Melbourne from ASP.
 
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vhtje
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:12 am

ClassicLover wrote:
vhtje wrote:
Fun fact: TN signed a LOI for A320s in the late 1980s. I have no idea why they never took them up, but given how AN’s dual type narrow body mainline fleet strategy throughout the 1990s added significantly to their costs and was ultimately one factor in their demise (of many, many factors, I hasten to add), it seems wise that TN, and then QF, stuck with 737s.


I remember seeing the picture of the proposed A320 in TAA's camel hump livery in Australian Aviation magazine when I was a kid. I think it may have been selected prior to the Boeing 737 order, because of that livery - they changed to Australian Airlines in 1986 when the 737 arrived, so that picture would be from before then. I don't believe they were going to do a dual fleet like Ansett (who wanted to operate every aircraft in existence, and pretty much did). I think the 737 was eventually selected instead, probably due to the earlier availability of delivery slots.

TAA's (then Australian Airlines, now Qantas domestic) procurement, fleet planning and technical people were some of the best in the business. Had they not been constrained by the regulatory system of the time, we would have seen some very different aircraft in Australian domestic service, most notably the Caravelle.


No it, was definitely after the initial 737-376 order, but pre the Australian Airlines rebranding, ie before the 737s started arriving. I’ll dig out the info I have. Remember the 737 order was placed long before the rebrand.
 
yachty
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:16 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:

Generally I take what pilots and flight attendants say with a grain of salt. Not saying you or your sources are incorrect, however they often don't know any of the behind the scenes work involved in acquiring new aircraft and any new contractual terms that are being drafted.

Airbus has also proposed crew rest facilities which are proven elsewhere too.

At US Airways back in the day out 767s not 757s had crew rest areas and they used them for US to Europe and other international destinations.

They just block seats for them to use.


QF A330s dont have crew rest facilities, just blocked seats.


Only for cabin crew. Almost all of them have crew rest facilities for flight crew (all of the A330-300s, eight of the A330-200s).

Behind the cockpit between doors 1L/1R on the A330-300:
https://www.qantas.com/content/dam/qant ... 30-300.pdf

Between doors 2L/2R on the intl-configured A330-200s:
https://www.qantas.com/content/dam/qant ... 7J224Y.pdf

Remainder of A330-200s use blocked seats for long-haul.
 
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vhtje
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:23 am

]
ClassicLover wrote:
vhtje wrote:
Fun fact: TN signed a LOI for A320s in the late 1980s. I have no idea why they never took them up, but given how AN’s dual type narrow body mainline fleet strategy throughout the 1990s added significantly to their costs and was ultimately one factor in their demise (of many, many factors, I hasten to add), it seems wise that TN, and then QF, stuck with 737s.


I remember seeing the picture of the proposed A320 in TAA's camel hump livery in Australian Aviation magazine when I was a kid. I think it may have been selected prior to the Boeing 737 order, because of that livery - they changed to Australian Airlines in 1986 when the 737 arrived, so that picture would be from before then. I don't believe they were going to do a dual fleet like Ansett (who wanted to operate every aircraft in existence, and pretty much did). I think the 737 was eventually selected instead, probably due to the earlier availability of delivery slots.

TAA's (then Australian Airlines, now Qantas domestic) procurement, fleet planning and technical people were some of the best in the business. Had they not been constrained by the regulatory system of the time, we would have seen some very different aircraft in Australian domestic service, most notably the Caravelle.


Here you go. 1985.

Image
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:28 am

vhtje wrote:
Here you go. 1985.

Image


Awesome, I remember reading TAA were on the design team for the aircraft. Apparently TAA and Airbus had a very good relationship technically due to the A300 purchase. I wonder what the other two criteria were that TAA specified :) Great article!
 
LTEN11
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:03 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
vhtje wrote:
Here you go. 1985.

Image


Awesome, I remember reading TAA were on the design team for the aircraft. Apparently TAA and Airbus had a very good relationship technically due to the A300 purchase. I wonder what the other two criteria were that TAA specified :) Great article!


Around that time, probably 2 weeks in the south of France and some tickets to Moulin Rogue in Paris :D just kidding :lol:
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:16 pm

Nine orders was a good result in the 1980s. I recall BCAL's A320 order was 7 + 3, leading to an initial 10 in BA's fleet, 5 of which were 320-100 as in the photo.

The Business Age article says: "The airline wanted a stretched version of the 140-seat A320 originally planned by Airbus". TAA's successor will soon have many!
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:26 am

Given that the QF group, via JQ, already has a lot of A320s using CFM engines, I wonder why the new order was for P&W?

Cheers.
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:32 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Given that the QF group, via JQ, already has a lot of A320s using CFM engines, I wonder why the new order was for P&W?

Cheers.
are you sure ? Every JQ A320 I've ever seen has IAE engines
 
oceanvikram
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Re: Updated: Qantas selects A320neo and A220 families for narrowbody fleet replacement

Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:56 am

What is compelling for me is the 20 (off) 321XLRs order.

They don’t need them for domestic/New Zealand services (based on pre-COVID pandemic network) as the 321NEO can suffice for all routes bar PER-AKL and maybe PER-BNE.

So now I am going through the internal struggle of an aviation geek and an arm chair Chairman of the Qantas Group.

These aircrafts are to commence delivery in 2024, hopefully by then there will be a much better resemblance of air travels to pre-COVID pandemic levels. So these deliveries are not going to benefit from QF’s short term strategy of flying seasonal routes/destinations for the 1st half of 2022.

But then we need to also appreciate that Qantas does not have a risk appetite to “experiment” on routes and destinations.

The catchment area for 321NEOXLR is East Asia, South East Asia and New Zealand from Australia. Pacific islands, Qantas mainline is going to stay away from and if anything possibly consider/continue BNE/MEL/SYD – NAN.

This is how I see the 20 (off) 321XLRs will be utilised from 2024 for Qantas mainline:
• ADL/BNE/DRW/PER/MEL/SYD – AKL
• ADL/BNE/PER/MEL – SIN (BNE/MEL to get second daily)
• BNE/MEL/SYD – CHC/WEL
• MEL/SYD – DPS (for the affluent Aussie traveler)
• BNE – PEK/PVG (most of the revenue will come from the leisure market, but there should be enough business traffic to provide further consistent revenue.)
• BNE – TPE (most of the revenue will come from the leisure market, but there should be enough business traffic to provide further consistent revenue.)
• MEL – BKK (return to mainline, I am not even sure if the plane can make the distance!)
• PER – HKG (not sure about this one, due to the ongoing concerns in Hong Kong.)
• SYD – CGK (now daily and not sure about this one, since this is a narrow body sensitive market.)
• SYD – KUL (not sure about this one, since this is a narrow body sensitive market.)
• SYD – MNL (now daily)
• SYD – TPE (not sure about this one, since this could be narrow body sensitive market.)

Qantas Flying to/from Asia with the 321, a narrowbody aircraft, may not gain much traffic from Asian countries. Their own airlines already fly to SYD/MEL and to some extent BNE with widebodies, so not sure how this will pan out for Qantas.
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