Qantas is expected to confirm in coming days a tender for fleet replacement of 737’s, 717’s and F100’s. While the 737MAX and A320neo family are being considered for replacement of 737’s the A220, Embraer E2 and 737max7 are being considered for the regional jet replacement

Thoughts??

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-10-03/

qf789 wrote:

Qantas is expected to confirm in coming days a tender for fleet replacement of 737’s, 717’s and F100’s. While the 737MAX and A320neo family are being considered for replacement of 737’s the A220, Embraer E2 and 737max7 are being considered for the regional jet replacement

Thoughts??

For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220. It will be far more efficient than the Boeing 737 MAX 7, though the numbers may change if they end up selecting the MAX for the 737 replacement for the main fleet, as commonality will come into play at that point.

I'd say Airbus might also have the inside track with the A320neo. But you never know... I'd say Boeing will be doing everything they can to win that business. As will Airbus for that matter.

They have more than 50 737-800s that are between 10-20 years old. They have a fleet of 74 total. This is interesting as it could be a combination of 8MAX/10MAX or A320/A321.
Per the article cited there are about 38 717/FokkerF100, nearly split down the middle. This would look like A223 , 7MAX or E190.

Will be interesting to see they prefer a winner takes all for all narrow body fleet replacements.

Such a small regional fleet would only favor 7MAX if 8MAX/MAX10 were selected for 738 replacements.. Would think E2190 would have upper hand on price, unless Airbus is aggressive on A223 prices as an addon following a successful A320/321 tender.

There is a large outstanding order for A321XLR (36), so who knows how many of those were already earmarked to replace some of those 738s.... This might favor Airbus.

Interesting- to me Airbus seems a good fit with 109 320NEO on order at Jetstar gives them a lot of flexibility to move aircraft between the brands and regions as a recovery occurs. Not to mention other synergies across engineering.

A220 is a very expensive F100 replacement and too much capability for mining FIFO. I’d say they would replace the 717s which would replace the F100 before being replaced much later. Wonder how the sunrise order plays into this as a bargaining tool also.

ClassicLover wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Qantas is expected to confirm in coming days a tender for fleet replacement of 737’s, 717’s and F100’s. While the 737MAX and A320neo family are being considered for replacement of 737’s the A220, Embraer E2 and 737max7 are being considered for the regional jet replacement

Thoughts??

For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220. It will be far more efficient than the Boeing 737 MAX 7...

E2s are competent replacements for the F100s and 717s, and wouldn't represent such a large upgauge as an A223, let alone a MAX 7.

'Fleet simplification' just hasn't been part of Australian English, I see.

How long do these tenders normally take? Much simpler than the project sunrise one as all operating characteristics are known. Is 12months fair?

MIflyer12 wrote:

ClassicLover wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Qantas is expected to confirm in coming days a tender for fleet replacement of 737’s, 717’s and F100’s. While the 737MAX and A320neo family are being considered for replacement of 737’s the A220, Embraer E2 and 737max7 are being considered for the regional jet replacement

Thoughts??

For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220. It will be far more efficient than the Boeing 737 MAX 7...

E2s are competent replacements for the F100s and 717s, and wouldn't represent such a large upgauge as an A223, let alone a MAX 7.

'Fleet simplification' just hasn't been part of Australian English, I see.

The A220-100 could be proposed if the A220-300 is judged to be too large.

Boeing will be looking to make up for the loss of the A350 order so expect a big discount and also the MAX getting a big and respected airline like QANTAS ordering it will make Boeing very competitive. Also add the crew and maintenance training costs of Boeing to Boeing, will swing in its favour. Yes Jetstar has a large Airbus order and some A321NEO LRs will find their way into the fleet mix longer term. However where Airbus will drop off will be the A220, not needed for the FIFO work. Its to new, isn't configured for the rough fields that some sites have and its expensive. The Fokkers will likely be replaced with a E2 series especially as the airline now has experience with the Alliance agreement.

Could we see a mega Airbus order from QF?

- A320NEO/A321NEO order to replace 737’s
- A220 order to replace F100/717
- A351 order for Project Sunrise (pending)

Even though it hasn’t been confirmed, I think the A321’s will be playing a major role in QF’s mainline fleet. It’s the right fit and capacity for QF’s needs, especially on the golden triangle and trans con and will open up opportunities in Asia and the Pacific.

Mainline is the only division that doesn’t operate any A320 family aircraft. Jetstar, Qantas Link and Qantas Freight are all currently operating aircraft from the family.

The regional fleet can go either way IMHO, it’s the A220’s to lose as it will ultimately come down to price and how low Airbus is willing to go.

IMO, this is ripe for a "split order" of A220s for "regional" and MAX8 and 10 for 738 replacements. If I understand, the A220 doesn't get the same efficiencies with the rest of the Airbus lineup. I could also see some A320neo conversions from Jetstar to the A220 if needed.

As an aside, I also see further 789s.

smi0006 wrote:

How long do these tenders normally take? Much simpler than the project sunrise one as all operating characteristics are known. Is 12months fair?

12 months! How many posts and threads does that work out to?

What are the chances Airbus tries to throw in a good deal alongside the A350-1000 selection?

737 MAX as the replacement to QF B738. A320neo as a replacement to JQ A320's (if possible), A220 or E195 E2 as replacement to Fokker Jets. That would be the best choice in my opinion.

I think Airbus has the advantage as they are positioned to offer the best possible package deal. But I also will not discount Boeing and Embraer in being able to offer a competitive offer respectively.

ASOSpotter wrote ;
Also add the crew and maintenance training costs of Boeing to Boeing, will swing in its favour

Do you realize that Qantas has 36 A321 XLR on order ?

However where Airbus will drop off will be the A220, not needed for the FIFO work. Its to new,

To new, wow ???

The Fokkers will likely be replaced with a E2 series

not to new but old ???

smi0006 wrote:

Interesting- to me Airbus seems a good fit with 109 320NEO on order at Jetstar gives them a lot of flexibility to move aircraft between the brands and regions as a recovery occurs. Not to mention other synergies across engineering.

A220 is a very expensive F100 replacement and too much capability for mining FIFO. I’d say they would replace the 717s which would replace the F100 before being replaced much later. Wonder how the sunrise order plays into this as a bargaining tool also.

Agreed, the F100s have fairly low utilization and the 717s have proven themselves in that market.

For the FIFO market good runway performance will be key. The E jet might be better in this regard.

I am on a flight to LAS…… betting it all on NO BOEING aircraft to be in this order!! WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

Coincidental that Boeing announces a new factory in Australia?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/22/business ... index.html

AirDO wrote:

737 MAX as the replacement to QF B738. A320neo as a replacement to JQ A320's (if possible), A220 or E195 E2 as replacement to Fokker Jets. That would be the best choice in my opinion.

JQ already has 109 NEO on order separate from the currently unallocated 321XLRs - I believe (for use across AU/NZ/SIN and maybe Japan?) This isn’t a replacement for JQ. Separate from this order QF could already be receiving 321XLR - not to mention some 321 Freighters. We’ve already seen 3K transfer some 320s back to AU- being able to shuffle a fleet around Australia,NZ and Asia gives a lot of flexibility, abs scale to match demand where it returns.

QF also allegedly kept the JQ and QF fleets separate to ensure a basis for industrial relations as a key way of keeping employee contracts separate and cheaper at JQ. In a post covid world considering how much QF has given unions the finger - I don’t see this mattering anymore. I could see QF outsource all engineering, or consolidating all JQ/QF engineering for 320s under a separate ‘cheeper’ subsidiary QF Group-MRO or something.

For all the talk of a 350/320/220 deal by airbus, I could equally see Boeing offering a few more 789 which QF could use eventually also.

I’m very surprised QF wouldn’t replace their 717s and F100 with something second hand. As mentioned certainly the F100 don’t need a new frame considering how they are used.

oldJoe wrote:

ASOSpotter wrote ;
Also add the crew and maintenance training costs of Boeing to Boeing, will swing in its favour

Do you realize that Qantas has 36 A321 XLR on order ? Yes I do, you do understand its from the QANTAS Group which owns Jetstar. So Im sure a few will some of the 36 on order will find their way into the red roo colours.

However where Airbus will drop off will be the A220, not needed for the FIFO work. Its to new,

To new, wow ??? Yes too new, QANTASLINK has been built up around used 717s, A320s, and Fokker 100s not one of them was new to wearing a QANTAS livery. All came second hand, which is why the comment on the A220 being too new. You need depreciated aircraft to sit around on the ground longer then a typical flight operated within the main line.

The Fokkers will likely be replaced with a E2 series

not to new but old ???

The E2 is a newer airframe yes, however its operating costs will be lesser, especially if Alliance pick up operating them on behalf of QANTASLINK similar to the Cobham contract from a few years ago.

So yeah Ive got an idea, thanks for the critique

What would be most profitable and most cost-efficient? A number of factors to look at:

-Number of types in the fleet
-Avoiding having to retrain required all the 737 pilots if the MAX is not chosen
-Aircraft efficiency

If the first was most important, maybe they'd look at a fleet of all a320Neo or 737 max. They could do a mix of 73G and 738 or a320 and a321.

With the second, including the 737 MAX in the fleet would be a smoother transition than going with a320 Neos.

With the third, It would make sense to do a mix of 738 Max and a220s which are (supposedly) more efficient than the 73G or a19N. Likely they go with the a223 due to the "similar operating cost than the stretch" point.

Not mentioned is cost of the actual aircraft which I'm not really familiar on.

Personally best option seems to be 738 Max and a220 or some other similar-sized aircraft. Two types won't kill them as they aren't a single-type fleet to begin with.

Please stick to the topic that being about Qantas upcoming narrow body order, it’s not about Australia’s submarine decision and also leave the politics out of the discussion as well

Pure speculation on my part.

For the regional fleet given that Qantas already has a wet leasing relationship with Alliance. I can see Qantas buying a fleet of E190/195 E2 to replace the 717 fleet. These will be leased to Alliance who operate them on contract for Qantaslink for the Central and East Coast network, similar to the 717 arrangement with NJS.

As for the West Coast. I can see Network continuing to acquire A320ceo from Jetstar as they're displaced by A320neo arrivals. The older A320s are probably better suited for the utilisation needs of the FIFO operations than a new aircraft. If they need something smaller for field performance at certain airports, then I can see then buying A319ceo of similar age from the second hand market.

For mainline it really could go either way. I can see Boeing being really aggressive to secure a MAX8/MAX10 order from Qantas. They would also work better with the younger half of the 737-800 fleet which won't be going anywhere in the medium term. On the other hand the group already has existing orders for 32S and the A321LR in particular will work well on both busy trunk routes and thinner medium haul routes. Personally I'd rather see an A32Sneo order.

ClassicLover wrote:

For the regional jet replacement, they will be mad to choose anything over the Airbus A220.

In a perfect world yes... but depends on how soon they want them.

At this point, it's appears to more and more unlikely that an airline placing a large order, would get them less than a half-decade out.

Then again, considering how artificially stunted Australia's aviation market has been lately, maybe that could be a good thing.

vhqpa wrote:

Pure speculation on my part.

For the regional fleet given that Qantas already has a wet leasing relationship with Alliance. I can see Qantas buying a fleet of E190/195 E2 to replace the 717 fleet. These will be leased to Alliance who operate them on contract for Qantaslink for the Central and East Coast network, similar to the 717 arrangement with NJS.

As for the West Coast. I can see Network continuing to acquire A320ceo from Jetstar as they're displaced by A320neo arrivals. The older A320s are probably better suited for the utilisation needs of the FIFO operations than a new aircraft. If they need something smaller for field performance at certain airports, then I can see then buying A319ceo of similar age from the second hand market.

For mainline it really could go either way. I can see Boeing being really aggressive to secure a MAX8/MAX10 order from Qantas. They would also work better with the younger half of the 737-800 fleet which won't be going anywhere in the medium term. On the other hand the group already has existing orders for 32S and the A321LR in particular will work well on both busy trunk routes and thinner medium haul routes. Personally I'd rather see an A32Sneo order.

They could also re-introduce the Q400s back to the west coast which would help replacement. The A320s would be fine on most Pilbara routes but something smaller is definitely needed for GET / KGI and LEA.

ASOSpotter wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

ASOSpotter wrote ;
Also add the crew and maintenance training costs of Boeing to Boeing, will swing in its favour

Do you realize that Qantas has 36 A321 XLR on order ? Yes I do, you do understand its from the QANTAS Group which owns Jetstar. So Im sure a few will some of the 36 on order will find their way into the red roo colours.

However where Airbus will drop off will be the A220, not needed for the FIFO work. Its to new,

To new, wow ??? Yes too new, QANTASLINK has been built up around used 717s, A320s, and Fokker 100s not one of them was new to wearing a QANTAS livery. All came second hand, which is why the comment on the A220 being too new. You need depreciated aircraft to sit around on the ground longer then a typical flight operated within the main line.

The Fokkers will likely be replaced with a E2 series

not to new but old ???

The E2 is a newer airframe yes, however its operating costs will be lesser, especially if Alliance pick up operating them on behalf of QANTASLINK similar to the Cobham contract from a few years ago.

So yeah Ive got an idea, thanks for the critique

There is no criticism on my part, only statements which could go into each direction to be honest

For mainline, this sounds as though it should be B38M and B3XM, going to smaller planes on transcon...and the MAX 10 can be configured to exactly 200 seats with a domestic first class. For Link, I would be surprised if the E290 doesn't win out. The BCS1 is too large a plane and the BCS3 is A319-sized.

While the OP doesn't address the issue directly, the DH8B and DH8C fleet isn't getting any younger. This is where DHC needs to show if it will resume production of the DH8B/C along with the -D. If so, then new-build DH8Cs could be in play. Otherwise, I see the AT46 as being a replacement for the 20-strong DH8B/C fleet.

A real wild card would be if Airbus offers a package deal of the AT46 (with options to upgrade to the AT76)/BCS1/A20N/A21N.

ASOSpotter wrote:

Boeing will be looking to make up for the loss of the A350 order so expect a big discount and also the MAX getting a big and respected airline like QANTAS ordering it will make Boeing very competitive. Also add the crew and maintenance training costs of Boeing to Boeing, will swing in its favour. Yes Jetstar has a large Airbus order and some A321NEO LRs will find their way into the fleet mix longer term. However where Airbus will drop off will be the A220, not needed for the FIFO work. Its to new, isn't configured for the rough fields that some sites have and its expensive. The Fokkers will likely be replaced with a E2 series especially as the airline now has experience with the Alliance agreement.

You think Airbus will let Boeing get away with discount? Airbus will probably give a sweet deal for a combo of A220, A320neo and A350-1000.

I'm betting on airbus to take the home run on this one. Boeing has supposedly lessened their discounts (as seen by the Ryanair 737 MAX 10 catastrophe). Airbus has the competitive advantage of needing the A350-1000 ULR Deal done and more A220 orders (especially if it's the -100, and 37 of them at that). And finally, Qantas OFFICIALY has 36 A321XLRs on orders and most of their fleet is comprised of airbuses. So there are some shining reasons indicating that result.

I think the Fokkers and 717 were preferred for being less vunerable for FOD from the inland runways used.

Replacing them with E2s, NEO or MAX wouldnt really address that challenge.

Can't they find young CRJ900s until E3s become available?

keesje wrote:

I think the Fokkers and 717 were preferred for being less vunerable for FOD from the inland runways used.

Replacing them with E2s, NEO or MAX wouldnt really address that challenge.

Can't they find young CRJ900s until E3s become available?

The CRJs would be weight limited I think off the shorter runways in hot weather. The F100s are pretty good freight carriers too, CRJs are pretty limited here too.

There are to many variables to consider it a win for either. Does Qantas want to upgauge some Regional routes? What is their vision for the Golden triangle? Does it want to continue its hub spoke model from its eastern hubs or do they want to offer more direct flights from their regional airports?

Seeing XLR and ULR orders it seems they see higher profits from direct flights. Lots of leisure traffic out regionals that can be directly flown throughout South East Asia on low frequency.
This tender/order will be quite telling in this sense. Do they go for range heavy planes or just seat-for-seat upgrade?

kriskim wrote:

Could we see a mega Airbus order from QF?

- A320NEO/A321NEO order to replace 737’s
- A220 order to replace F100/717
- A351 order for Project Sunrise (pending)

With the a388s put up an an ‘trade-in’ deal on the order.

keesje wrote:

I think the Fokkers and 717 were preferred for being less vunerable for FOD from the inland runways used.

Replacing them with E2s, NEO or MAX wouldnt really address that challenge.

Can't they find young CRJ900s until E3s become available?

FOD really isn't an issue for most runways in WA, most mines that are using jets already have sealed airstrips and an Aerodrome Reporting Officer who does a FOD sweep before the aircraft arrives. Unsealed strips are usually serviced by smaller aircraft, and are mines that are outside of the scope of Qantas's main customer base. However, a lot of those strips are designed to accommodate an F100 and in many cases would need upgrades to take anything larger. Newer mine sites that have a long life are putting in A320/737 capable strips from the get-go.

The F100s are old but still have life in them, and the death knell for them will be either Rolls-Royce pulling their support for the engines, or the miners getting really worried about their Tier 3 emissions. Both are short/medium-term issues, although the latter is more an issue for Rio Tinto and BHP.

On the east coast, Qantas is wet leasing a number of E190-E1s from Alliance Airlines that are opening up new routes or providing additional lift between 737s. That may give the E2 a slight inside running, but Airbus will put together a pretty competitive A320neo/A220 deal, and they have the advantage of that big existing neo order. Boeing will also pitch the Max pretty aggressively, so it is almost anyone's game.

jrfspa320 wrote:

keesje wrote:

I think the Fokkers and 717 were preferred for being less vunerable for FOD from the inland runways used.

Replacing them with E2s, NEO or MAX wouldnt really address that challenge.

Can't they find young CRJ900s until E3s become available?

The CRJs would be weight limited I think off the shorter runways in hot weather. The F100s are pretty good freight carriers too, CRJs are pretty limited here too.

How about A220-100's, would they have the issue? They are phenomenal at cargo

Cardude2 wrote:

I'm betting on airbus to take the home run on this one. Boeing has supposedly lessened their discounts (as seen by the Ryanair 737 MAX 10 catastrophe). Airbus has the competitive advantage of needing the A350-1000 ULR Deal done and more A220 orders (especially if it's the -100, and 37 of them at that). And finally, Qantas OFFICIALY has 36 A321XLRs on orders and most of their fleet is comprised of airbuses. So there are some shining reasons indicating that result.

Airbus will be more that happy when the backlog of A221s is done for. The production line can produce both models and there seems to be no special tooling required. The A223 will be the model that keeps the lights on and probably a further stretch with increased margin. The A221s will go the way of the 788. An early version to get production started, that over time will be less desierable to order cause the OEM would rather make more money selling the bigger model and pricing on the smaller one will be rather uncompetitive.

I too cannot imagine the Fokkers being replaced by shiny new A220s or E2s. You can’t let such expensive planes fly one or two sectors per day and have them standing around the rest of the time.

I can see the F100s either being replaced by QF holding onto the 717s for another ten years and moving them west (plus a few ex JQ A320s) or perhaps QF may take a leaf out of Alliance’s book and directly replace them with used Embraer 190s.

As for the 737-800 replacement, I think A and B are neck and neck and it’s too close to call.

And by the by, it’ll be sad to see those F100s go. They’ve proven to be one versatile little aeroplane. Who knows, maybe Alliance will snap them up for a song and squeeze every last hour out of them.

What exactly is the point of Qantas taking A220s? The mainline Qantas narrowbody fleet has 737s, and even if they choose the A320neo to streamline with Jetstar it doesn't have the same type rating as the A220.
Why don't they just go with the E2? Especially since Alliance has E190s flying around in Qantas colours and Qantas is 'impressed'?
Alliance could act as a regional partner just like Skywest in the US and could operate the Embraers.

soyuz wrote:

I too cannot imagine the Fokkers being replaced by shiny new A220s or E2s. You can’t let such expensive planes fly one or two sectors per day and have them standing around the rest of the time.

I can see the F100s either being replaced by QF holding onto the 717s for another ten years and moving them west (plus a few ex JQ A320s) or perhaps QF may take a leaf out of Alliance’s book and directly replace them with used Embraer 190s.

As for the 737-800 replacement, I think A and B are neck and neck and it’s too close to call.

And by the by, it’ll be sad to see those F100s go. They’ve proven to be one versatile little aeroplane. Who knows, maybe Alliance will snap them up for a song and squeeze every last hour out of them.

the 717 is not an option as parts are becoming scarce since delta and Hawaiian will retire theirs in 2025.

Cardude2 wrote:

soyuz wrote:

I too cannot imagine the Fokkers being replaced by shiny new A220s or E2s. You can’t let such expensive planes fly one or two sectors per day and have them standing around the rest of the time.

I can see the F100s either being replaced by QF holding onto the 717s for another ten years and moving them west (plus a few ex JQ A320s) or perhaps QF may take a leaf out of Alliance’s book and directly replace them with used Embraer 190s.

As for the 737-800 replacement, I think A and B are neck and neck and it’s too close to call.

And by the by, it’ll be sad to see those F100s go. They’ve proven to be one versatile little aeroplane. Who knows, maybe Alliance will snap them up for a song and squeeze every last hour out of them.

the 717 is not an option as parts are becoming scarce since delta and Hawaiian will retire theirs in 2025.

Wouldnt that make it easier to obtain spares?

jbs2886 wrote:

IMO, this is ripe for a "split order" of A220s for "regional" and MAX8 and 10 for 738 replacements. If I understand, the A220 doesn't get the same efficiencies with the rest of the Airbus lineup. I could also see some A320neo conversions from Jetstar to the A220 if needed.

As an aside, I also see further 789s.

^^ 100% agree with this scenario. I see the order for the Maxes linked with a top up of 787-9s (or vice versa), with the mooted Sunrise/A350 order kicked further into the future.

jrfspa320 wrote:

Cardude2 wrote:

soyuz wrote:

I too cannot imagine the Fokkers being replaced by shiny new A220s or E2s. You can’t let such expensive planes fly one or two sectors per day and have them standing around the rest of the time.

I can see the F100s either being replaced by QF holding onto the 717s for another ten years and moving them west (plus a few ex JQ A320s) or perhaps QF may take a leaf out of Alliance’s book and directly replace them with used Embraer 190s.

As for the 737-800 replacement, I think A and B are neck and neck and it’s too close to call.

And by the by, it’ll be sad to see those F100s go. They’ve proven to be one versatile little aeroplane. Who knows, maybe Alliance will snap them up for a song and squeeze every last hour out of them.

the 717 is not an option as parts are becoming scarce since delta and Hawaiian will retire theirs in 2025.

Wouldnt that make it easier to obtain spares?

yes and no, you don't really want to be the only big carrier flying around a McDonell Douglas aircraft with no real big support left for it. and the fact that its aging doesn't bode well for it. your going to have to get over that Qantas needs to move on to better, streamlined things.

jrfspa320 wrote:

Cardude2 wrote:

soyuz wrote:

I too cannot imagine the Fokkers being replaced by shiny new A220s or E2s. You can’t let such expensive planes fly one or two sectors per day and have them standing around the rest of the time.

I can see the F100s either being replaced by QF holding onto the 717s for another ten years and moving them west (plus a few ex JQ A320s) or perhaps QF may take a leaf out of Alliance’s book and directly replace them with used Embraer 190s.

As for the 737-800 replacement, I think A and B are neck and neck and it’s too close to call.

And by the by, it’ll be sad to see those F100s go. They’ve proven to be one versatile little aeroplane. Who knows, maybe Alliance will snap them up for a song and squeeze every last hour out of them.

the 717 is not an option as parts are becoming scarce since delta and Hawaiian will retire theirs in 2025.

Wouldnt that make it easier to obtain spares?

Not if the reason they're being retired is lack of spares (all the good parts are cycled/houred out)

smi0006 wrote:

QF also allegedly kept the JQ and QF fleets separate to ensure a basis for industrial relations as a key way of keeping employee contracts separate and cheaper at JQ. In a post covid world considering how much QF has given unions the finger - I don’t see this mattering anymore

Agree - esp considering they both operate 787s now as well.

i reckon an order for A220s to be operated by QFlink to replace the regional fleets and routes where a 738 is too large and a top up of 321s from the Jetstar order to replace the balance of 738s. In the mix more flying s farmed out to QFlink ie cheaper.

Surely the easiest solution is to pick up some of the dozens of used E190s laying around to do that kind of work?

Cardude2 wrote:

soyuz wrote:

I too cannot imagine the Fokkers being replaced by shiny new A220s or E2s. You can’t let such expensive planes fly one or two sectors per day and have them standing around the rest of the time.

I can see the F100s either being replaced by QF holding onto the 717s for another ten years and moving them west (plus a few ex JQ A320s) or perhaps QF may take a leaf out of Alliance’s book and directly replace them with used Embraer 190s.

As for the 737-800 replacement, I think A and B are neck and neck and it’s too close to call.

And by the by, it’ll be sad to see those F100s go. They’ve proven to be one versatile little aeroplane. Who knows, maybe Alliance will snap them up for a song and squeeze every last hour out of them.

the 717 is not an option as parts are becoming scarce since delta and Hawaiian will retire theirs in 2025.

Armodeen wrote:

Surely the easiest solution is to pick up some of the dozens of used E190s laying around to do that kind of work?

Cardude2 wrote:

soyuz wrote:

I too cannot imagine the Fokkers being replaced by shiny new A220s or E2s. You can’t let such expensive planes fly one or two sectors per day and have them standing around the rest of the time.

I can see the F100s either being replaced by QF holding onto the 717s for another ten years and moving them west (plus a few ex JQ A320s) or perhaps QF may take a leaf out of Alliance’s book and directly replace them with used Embraer 190s.

As for the 737-800 replacement, I think A and B are neck and neck and it’s too close to call.

And by the by, it’ll be sad to see those F100s go. They’ve proven to be one versatile little aeroplane. Who knows, maybe Alliance will snap them up for a song and squeeze every last hour out of them.

the 717 is not an option as parts are becoming scarce since delta and Hawaiian will retire theirs in 2025.

Which seems to be the likely approach, especially in light of the Alliance E190 deal. The ‘East Coast’ 717s could be suitable for replacement by new-build frames, but if you could pick up ~20 E195s for under $10 mil each, why would you want to buy new? The ‘West Coast’ F100s will definitely not be replaced by brand new anything. The operation is completely different, and those aircraft often only operate a handful of sectors each week. A combination of second hand A320s and E190s (the latter probably operated by Alliance rather than Network) seems like the only sensible solution in that market.

As for the mainline aircraft, it’s a coin toss IMHO.

RyanairGuru wrote:

The ‘East Coast’ 717s could be suitable for replacement by new-build frames, but if you could pick up ~20 E195s for under $10 mil each, why would you want to buy new? The ‘West Coast’ F100s will definitely not be replaced by brand new anything.

That's the eternal trade-off of lower CapEx vs. higher operating cost. If Qantas is credit-constrained they may go cheap. If they look at 20 year total cost of ownership (and place a premium on reliability of ops), they may choose new. Market-driven North American carriers were fleeing E19X even before Covid - and all three bought A220s.

There are some types for which there is no market-clearing price that overcomes higher operating expense. How many A340-500s do you see in scheduled commercial ops?

Obviously non of us know the in's and out's, but from the face of it, a split 737-8/10MAX order with a E2 order for regional makes the most sense. I reckon Boeing could get 737MAX's delivered quicker than Airbus and their A320neo's, and as others say, the A220 is too much plane for the regionals (as much as I love the A220). I dont buy the "A220 is too expensive for the regional routes" because the E2 isnt much cheaper to operate.

The only question for me about the MAX's is can the 737-10MAX do the Perth runs at full payload from East?

I see QF going for A320neo/A321neo to replace the 737s, A321XLRs already on order will replace most of the A330 fleet, and E2-195s to replace the Fokkers/717s.

As much as I love the A220, I think the Embraer jet allows QF to have a more consistent in-flight product (seat widths etc). Not to mention they may be able to get E2s more quickly and cheaply than A220s. Also, QF already wet-leases E190s (from Network Aviation) so they have familiarity with the E-Jets.

I almost see a split choice for the mainfleet, despite the whole fleet simplification challenge.

The 321XLR with a fully flat business is just perfect for QFi for routes like Bali, Jakarta, Tokyo and even Singapore (if Sunrise gets up), and could be scheduled so as to operate the red-eyes from Perth.

And Boeing is undoubtedly going to go all out not to lose the contract plus all the pilot training benefit. I wouldn't be surprised to see an up-gauge to the 737-9

After all some of the 332s are also getting old, and the 789s, even 788s, aren't really ideal for domestic.

zkncj wrote:

With the a388s put up an an ‘trade-in’ deal on the order.

Now that is really funny.