Bloomberg is reporting that Boeing is likely to officially launch the 777X freighter at the Dubai Air Show

It is currently talking to customers including Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, FedEx, Singapore Airlines and DHL

Qatar Airways has said they would be looking up to 50 freighters including options/purchase rights and DAS would be the likely place that they could order freighters

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ith-airbus

Will the 777XF be based on the 778?

qf789 wrote:

Bloomberg is reporting that Boeing is likely to officially launch the 777X freighter at the Dubai Air Show

It is currently talking to customers including Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, FedEx, Singapore Airlines and DHL

Qatar Airways has said they would be looking up to 50 freighters including options/purchase rights and DAS would be the likely place that they could order freighters

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ith-airbus

It is a moment of truth for FedEx. The ERSF is the smart choice for now, however, the pressure to commit to a 777X $pend must be significant.
hypo: Qatar is the motivation/force behind this announcement. Will there be an order?, as the market salivates at the thought of significant numbers of used b772fs coming onto the market.

This is facinating. In my opinion, the 777xF is required for economics of scale on the 777x. With it, the plane will have viable production until long haul returns. Without... I am not so confident.

The GE9x is the most advanced engine I have ever seen; it is extreamly optimized for longer missions with the complex cooling circuits (adds weight and maintenance to reduce cruise fuel burn).

I am very curious as to the particulars.

Lightsaber

Opus99 wrote:

I think like lightsaber said earlier on in the year. Whoever gets the QR order has pretty much got it. And it’s looking like Boeing is going to get that. If they plan to launch at the Dubai airshow then they must have the orders lined up

I have a feeling it will be a split order,

Sent from my SM-J415F using Tapatalk

qf789 wrote:

Bloomberg is reporting that Boeing is likely to officially launch the 777X freighter at the Dubai Air Show

It is currently talking to customers including Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, FedEx, Singapore Airlines and DHL

Qatar Airways has said they would be looking up to 50 freighters including options/purchase rights and DAS would be the likely place that they could order freighters

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ith-airbus

Wow, very exciting news.

amdiesen wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Bloomberg is reporting that Boeing is likely to officially launch the 777X freighter at the Dubai Air Show

It is currently talking to customers including Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, FedEx, Singapore Airlines and DHL

Qatar Airways has said they would be looking up to 50 freighters including options/purchase rights and DAS would be the likely place that they could order freighters

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ith-airbus

It is a moment of truth for FedEx. The ERSF is the smart choice for now, however, the pressure to commit to a 777X $pend must be significant.
hypo: Qatar is the motivation/force behind this announcement. Will there be an order?, as the market salivates at the thought of significant numbers of used b772fs coming onto the market.

It is impossible to find a used 777F right now.

jeffrey0032j wrote:

chiki wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

I think like lightsaber said earlier on in the year. Whoever gets the QR order has pretty much got it. And it’s looking like Boeing is going to get that. If they plan to launch at the Dubai airshow then they must have the orders lined up

I have a feeling it will be a split order,

Sent from my SM-J415F using Tapatalk

Split orders are common in pax world, but not in the freighter world. Doesn't make sense to have 2 different types in the same market segment (size/range) that require different procedures on ground, and different packing dimensions to complicate matters.

Split orders don't make sense in the pax world, either, unless the quantities are so large as to achieve economies of scale on both, as in AA's 344 737s and 447 A32x. Fifteen A350 freighters and fifteen 777x freighters would be just daft. Fifty + fifty, all for delivery within the next 5-10 years? OK.

lightsaber wrote:

This is facinating. In my opinion, the 777xF is required for economics of scale on the 777x. With it, the plane will have viable production until long haul returns. Without... I am not so confident.

The GE9x is the most advanced engine I have ever seen; it is extreamly optimized for longer missions with the complex cooling circuits (adds weight and maintenance to reduce cruise fuel burn).

I am very curious as to the particulars.

Lightsaber

Agree the F is needed for the X line. My big concern with launch orders will be how many passenger orders will be converted? I could see Emirates using conversions. But, glad to see the aircraft coming along.

Given Boeing's difficulty with the B777X program, launching the freighter will at least find a new user base to access. Airbus recent plans to launch the A350F have forced Boeing's hand. There is a substantial fleet of B744F's and B744 freighter conversions that will need replacement by the end of this decade due to high fuel costs and upcoming environmental regulations.

I would not be surprised if Boeing decides to take B777F's in on trade for the B777XF's. There is still high demand for the B777F from freight airlines that might struggle to buy all-new B777XF's or A350F's.

Opus99 wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

Given Boeing's difficulty with the B777X program, launching the freighter will at least find a new user base to access. Airbus recent plans to launch the A350F have forced Boeing's hand. There is a substantial fleet of B744F's and B744 freighter conversions that will need replacement by the end of this decade due to high fuel costs and upcoming environmental regulations.

I would not be surprised if Boeing decides to take B777F's in on trade for the B777XF's. There is still high demand for the B777F from freight airlines that might struggle to buy all-new B777XF's or A350F's.

It appears Airbus has forced Boeings hard. But how quickly things have been pulled together by Boeing suggests to me the XF was sitting in a freezer waiting for one day to be defrosted

I think that's right - Boeing was probably mostly waiting to see if they had the engineering resources to move to the 777XF with the 787 and MAX issues and since those seem to have resolutions, it makes sense.

Also agree we could see some trade-ins. There are a number of airlines that seem to need the new freighter capacity in the timeline of the 777XF: Singapore, China Airlines, Emirates, maybe KE/Asiana.

I wonder if the F will having folding wingtips. Airports like ANC are already running out of ramp space at certain times of the day

Just like the Airbus "launch", IMO it's not a "launch" till there's meaningful orders attached, till then it's just ATO (ability to offer).

So much can/does change when you find out what a customer really is or is not willing to pay for.

Revelation wrote:

Just like the Airbus "launch", IMO it's not a "launch" till there's meaningful orders attached, till then it's just ATO (ability to offer).

So much can/does change when you find out what a customer really is or is not willing to pay for.

Well according to the article, it sounds like orders will be placed at the time of launch. Boeing has not "launched" anything yet.

amdiesen wrote:

Qatar is the motivation/force behind this announcement.

If nothing else, AAB is using it to his advantage:

“We have a requirement for 50 aircraft and we will make a decision soon,” he said on the sidelines of an aviation industry meeting on Oct. 4 in Boston, where he met with executives from both manufacturers. He signaled that a spat over paint-related damage to Qatar’s A350 passenger fleet could hurt Airbus’s cargo-jet marketing.

“If they want to sell any A350s to us, they have to fix the problem they have, for which they don’t have a solution at the moment,” said Al Baker, characteristically blunt.

Ref: link in post 1.

I agree on your point on 77WF, but there are some customers who simply prefer to buy new, and QR typically is one of them. They also find themselves hauling heavy freight from time to time rather than just e-commerce and use up a lot of the payload-range curve. This isn't for instance FX often hauling stuff domestically within the US with their history of running frames converted by third parties or even their own line ala 757.

jbs2886 wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Just like the Airbus "launch", IMO it's not a "launch" till there's meaningful orders attached, till then it's just ATO (ability to offer).

So much can/does change when you find out what a customer really is or is not willing to pay for.

Well according to the article, it sounds like orders will be placed at the time of launch. Boeing has not "launched" anything yet.

Right, there is no claim to a launch already happening here, the thread title says "tipped to launch", whereas our thread on the competitor still says launch although there are no orders.

FLALEFTY wrote:

Given Boeing's difficulty with the B777X program, launching the freighter will at least find a new user base to access. Airbus recent plans to launch the A350F have forced Boeing's hand. There is a substantial fleet of B744F's and B744 freighter conversions that will need replacement by the end of this decade due to high fuel costs and upcoming environmental regulations.

I'm skeptical the A350F forced Boeing's hand. Maybe it influenced the timing, and certainly it will influence the actual sales prices. Considering how significant of a role freighters have played in Boeing's widebody sales for decades, and in particular for the 777, it has been my assumption from the start that a 777XF would happen eventually.

Boeing has been generally tight-lipped about it, but in the last quarter's earnings call, the CEO did bring it up in response to a question about R&D: "I hope in the relatively near term a freighter version of that [777X] airplane."

What’s the logic behind sizing this new freighter between the 8 and -9 series ?


Why not just offer the larger 9 fuselage for the most volume and capacity ?


Boeing will end up making three different fuselage length models in this line now, also adding complication

Interesting, by launching with Qatar they would take Singapore's order away from Airbus at the cost of locking in the design specs in an over-supplied "demand" thin market.
Those 21 unidentified b772f orders are direct substitutions for b77xf orders.
I expect an announcement that UPS orders ~25 a359.5Fs plus options in tandem with a Qatar order announcement for ~30 + ~30options for the b778fs. Singapore tilts Boeing, FedEx & Emirates sidelined, Cargolux tilts Airbus. The rest of the carriers remain quite or intimate for the ERSF.

Revelation wrote:

Just like the Airbus "launch", IMO it's not a "launch" till there's meaningful orders attached, till then it's just ATO (ability to offer).

So much can/does change when you find out what a customer really is or is not willing to pay for.

are you saying that it takes more than a gift of necklace beads for an "unmasking" ?

jeffrey0032j wrote:

amdiesen wrote:

...
hypo: Qatar is the motivation/force behind this announcement. Will there be an order?, as the market salivates at the thought of significant numbers of used b772fs coming onto the market.

Used 772F enmasse is at least a generation or two away. The pecking order for the long haul large freighters is 744BCF/BDSFs->744F Factory->748Fs->772Fs. Even the 744BCF/BDSFs are in demand right now with several planes presumed "dead" made alive again, and with several operators keeping their 742Fs flying.

"significant" may have been an improper adjective. Relevant is the mis-understood concept of divesting a mid-life freighter for a ~better, costly tool. The acquiring party accrues an over-weighted benefit that includes competing for revenue at a lower fixed cost. Freighter wide-bodies are absent the expensive cabin costs that depreciate at a faster pace than the frame. From a practical perspective, Qatar placing a large order would stage ~13 b772fs for the secondary market.

Opus99 wrote :
Also what of DHL and LH?

I can`t see LH Cargo or DHL on a shopping tour. LH last delivery of a 777F was just 8 days ago and the oldest is just 8 years old. Let`s not forget Aerologic a 50/50 joint-venture between LH and DHL with a young fleet of 777Fs. Also DHL has orderd 777Fs for DHL Air UK for entry into service 2022. If they order than in 10+ years I guess but defentily not now.

oldJoe wrote:

Opus99 wrote :
Also what of DHL and LH?

I can`t see LH Cargo or DHL on a shopping tour. LH last delivery of a 777F was just 8 days ago and the oldest is just 8 years old. Let`s not forget Aerologic a 50/50 joint-venture between LH and DHL with a young fleet of 777Fs. Also DHL has orderd 777Fs for DHL Air UK for entry into service 2022. If they order than in 10+ years I guess but defentily not now.

So LH and DHL cannot expand their fleet? I don't think anyone anticipates replacing 777Fs soon, but rather both carriers may be interested from a growth perspective. Additionally, DHL may want to replace 747 capacity.

lightsaber wrote:

This is facinating. In my opinion, the 777xF is required for economics of scale on the 777x. With it, the plane will have viable production until long haul returns. Without... I am not so confident.

The GE9x is the most advanced engine I have ever seen; it is extreamly optimized for longer missions with the complex cooling circuits (adds weight and maintenance to reduce cruise fuel burn).

I am very curious as to the particulars.

Lightsaber

I think it is very interesting as well. Not sure of the overall percent of sales of F for the total 777 to date, but I expect the mix in the X series will be at least triple, particularly over the next 10 years. I think it could be higher in terms of deliveries once the 8XF or whatever they call it starts getting delivered for at least that period.

Max Q wrote:

What’s the logic behind sizing this new freighter between the 8 and -9 series ?

Weight. Freighters want a competitive payload at range. If too short, not enough volume. If too long, they have to fly with empty space as they are at the weight limit.

Boeing has been shopping a 777xF for years. By now customers are clear on required capacity. The -9 couldn't carry enough payload weight far enough, the -8 didn't have enough volume.

Light cargo will go in 777-300ERSFs, that reduced Boeing's and Airbus' market as many (most?) will buy the cheaper used aircraft. The customers likely to buy new need heavy payload at range by analysis.

Lightsaber

jbs2886 wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

Opus99 wrote :
Also what of DHL and LH?

I can`t see LH Cargo or DHL on a shopping tour. LH last delivery of a 777F was just 8 days ago and the oldest is just 8 years old. Let`s not forget Aerologic a 50/50 joint-venture between LH and DHL with a young fleet of 777Fs. Also DHL has orderd 777Fs for DHL Air UK for entry into service 2022. If they order than in 10+ years I guess but defentily not now.

So LH and DHL cannot expand their fleet? I don't think anyone anticipates replacing 777Fs soon, but rather both carriers may be interested from a growth perspective. Additionally, DHL may want to replace 747 capacity.

Where did I say that they cannot expand ? They will order maybe the 777XF but not in the near future.
DHL expands already but with ( in Europe ) A330-300P2F with the last delivered less than 9 years old and LH even go smaller with 2 A321P2F EIS 2022
Who knows if they would not like a 777-300ER converted frighter ?

Opus99 wrote:

Boeing responded,

That’s my 2 cents. I could be VERY wrong but hey

They haven't responded. There is a rumor they could launch the program at an upcoming air show. That's not a response. Maybe that's just F.U.D. becuase they heard that Airbus might announce customers at an upcoming air show.

If the freighter gets delivered before the pax, then this is the 747-8i / 747-8f all over again. A program where only by the grace of the freighter program can it hope to minimize total program losses.

I like the 777-9. I do. I just see history repeating itself where the 368 passenger 777-300ER killed the 416 passenger 747-400. I see the 350 passenger A350-1000 making life extremely difficult for the 400 passenger 777-9. The trend is downsizing. Boeing reinforced the trend when the made the 787 fly almost as far as everything else they had with a much lower passenger load to make it profitable.

The 777-8.5F should be popular. It just has to contend with it's own 777-300ERCF and a possible A350-950F.

Interesting times ahead. It's the first time in recent memory where the two airframe manufacturers have had freighter products so closely matched.

amdiesen wrote:

Interesting, by launching with Qatar they would take Singapore's order away from Airbus at the cost of locking in the design specs in an over-supplied "demand" thin market.
Those 21 unidentified b772f orders are direct substitutions for b77xf orders.
I expect an announcement that UPS orders ~25 a359.5Fs plus options in tandem with a Qatar order announcement for ~30 + ~30options for the b778fs. Singapore tilts Boeing, FedEx & Emirates sidelined, Cargolux tilts Airbus. The rest of the carriers remain quite or intimate for the ERSF.

Revelation wrote:

Just like the Airbus "launch", IMO it's not a "launch" till there's meaningful orders attached, till then it's just ATO (ability to offer).

So much can/does change when you find out what a customer really is or is not willing to pay for.

are you saying that it takes more than a gift of necklace beads for an "unmasking" ?

jeffrey0032j wrote:

amdiesen wrote:

...
hypo: Qatar is the motivation/force behind this announcement. Will there be an order?, as the market salivates at the thought of significant numbers of used b772fs coming onto the market.

Used 772F enmasse is at least a generation or two away. The pecking order for the long haul large freighters is 744BCF/BDSFs->744F Factory->748Fs->772Fs. Even the 744BCF/BDSFs are in demand right now with several planes presumed "dead" made alive again, and with several operators keeping their 742Fs flying.

"significant" may have been an improper adjective. Relevant is the mis-understood concept of divesting a mid-life freighter for a ~better, costly tool. The acquiring party accrues an over-weighted benefit that includes competing for revenue at a lower fixed cost. Freighter wide-bodies are absent the expensive cabin costs that depreciate at a faster pace than the frame. From a practical perspective, Qatar placing a large order would stage ~13 b772fs for the secondary market.

UPS would never launch an airplane program. It would be very surprising to see them make a significant investment in airplanes right now. Their CEO has been quite clear about that.

Does this make the 747-8F obsolete already?

lajaca wrote:

Does this make the 747-8F obsolete already?

You can’t buy a new 748F anymore.

lightsaber wrote:

Max Q wrote:

What’s the logic behind sizing this new freighter between the 8 and -9 series ?

Weight. Freighters want a competitive payload at range. If too short, not enough volume. If too long, they have to fly with empty space as they are at the weight limit.

Boeing has been shopping a 777xF for years. By now customers are clear on required capacity. The -9 couldn't carry enough payload weight far enough, the -8 didn't have enough volume.

Light cargo will go in 777-300ERSFs, that reduced Boeing's and Airbus' market as many (most?) will buy the cheaper used aircraft. The customers likely to buy new need heavy payload at range by analysis.

Lightsaber

I think what you're saying is that dense cargo is more likely to go on newer freighters. Who knew?
Is this just because newer freighters are more likely to be able to carry the weight further?

Opus99 wrote:

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

Boeing responded,

That’s my 2 cents. I could be VERY wrong but hey

They haven't responded. There is a rumor they could launch the program at an upcoming air show. That's not a response. Maybe that's just F.U.D. becuase they heard that Airbus might announce customers at an upcoming air show.

If the freighter gets delivered before the pax, then this is the 747-8i / 747-8f all over again. A program where only by the grace of the freighter program can it hope to minimize total program losses.

I like the 777-9. I do. I just see history repeating itself where the 368 passenger 777-300ER killed the 416 passenger 747-400. I see the 350 passenger A350-1000 making life extremely difficult for the 400 passenger 777-9. The trend is downsizing. Boeing reinforced the trend when the made the 787 fly almost as far as everything else they had with a much lower passenger load to make it profitable.

The 777-8.5F should be popular. It just has to contend with it's own 777-300ERCF and a possible A350-950F.

Interesting times ahead. It's the first time in recent memory where the two airframe manufacturers have had freighter products so closely matched.

Airbus hasn’t launched anything either. I mean but there’s is more concrete than what we have for Boeing I agree.

I don’t think it’s possible for the passenger to come out before the freighter at this point.

You should know that the 747-8F was actually built first. The majority of 777x orders is still passenger orders and probably will be. The freighter throws the program a life line.

Thing is for me the analogy of 747 to 777 and 777X to 350 is apples to oranges. First of all the major difference between 4 engines to 2 engines that will always win. 35K go 777X is a different competition in which right now the 777x has the edge (for now).

Interesting times ahead indeed

I think we largely agree. Although the A350-950F is a good program, I was critical of the thread calling it a Launch... That was premature as it could be more accurately described as an authority to offer. I suspect that the 777-8.5F and the A350-950F are probably at design parity and close to design freeze. Each manufacturer is perhaps just balancing their internal resources and waiting for the moment to strike or respond.

My 748 analogy was more in line with the freigher portion being the saving grace of the whole program. When Boeing launches the 777-XF(8.5F) it would not surprise me to see many 777-8 and 777-9 conversions, which will tip the entire 777X program focus to freighter sales in lieu of passenger sales.

I wouldn't say the 777-9 or 777-8 has the advantage over the A350K, because the A350K has seen deliveries, which means cashflow to offset the development. The 777X planes have not. They may have more sales, but then again it's quite possible that many of them will be converted to freighters... at which point the discussion may well be that the 777-8.5F is more successful than the A350-950F. The weight penalty of the 777X 8/9/F versus A350 K/F can be looked at two different ways... 1. It enables higher passenger counts / higher freight capabilities... or 2. It requires higher passenger counts / higher freight capabilities to be economically viable. I guess the market will tell us over the next 10 years.

I don't favor either manufacturer over the other as they both make excellent products. Though I am disappointed in the Boeing MAX response post the accidents that has jaded my perception of and faith in them and made me a bit critical of their position in the narrow body market, so I'll own that. If anything, I favor jobs on the north american continent from Canada to Mexico to the USA. It's just that's where I live, so I favor a strong economy in my country and that of my neighbors. So, I'd like the 777X program to succeed as it's manufactured on my continent and it's counterpart is manufactured a continent away. However, it might be that the counterpart is a slightly more efficient mouse trap. So the home grown 777X might have to rely on it's freighter prowess for success..... If we start seeing 777-8.5F deliveries before 777-9 deliveries, well we'll know that the hometown manufacturer feels the same. Again, we are going to learn everything we need to know about the 350+ pax markets and Freighter markets over the next 10 years. Both players are obviously locked in terms of their product responses for the remainder of the 2020s and probably all of the 2030s in those market segments.

lajaca wrote:

Does this make the 747-8F obsolete already?

After the remainder of the UPS order is completed the B748F program will come to an end at Boeing. Therefore, it could be said that the B748F is "obsolete" as a new freighter aircraft solution for the future. But given their GEnX engines are compliant with the future environmental specs and heavy cargo lift capacity, I expect they will serve profitably well into the next decade.

sxf24 wrote:

UPS would never launch an airplane program. It would be very surprising to see them make a significant investment in airplanes right now. Their CEO has been quite clear about that.

UPS launched the programs with Boeing for the B757PF in 1987 and B767F in 1995.

iamlucky13 wrote:

I'm skeptical the A350F forced Boeing's hand. Maybe it influenced the timing, and certainly it will influence the actual sales prices. Considering how significant of a role freighters have played in Boeing's widebody sales for decades, and in particular for the 777, it has been my assumption from the start that a 777XF would happen eventually.

Boeing has been generally tight-lipped about it, but in the last quarter's earnings call, the CEO did bring it up in response to a question about R&D: "I hope in the relatively near term a freighter version of that [777X] airplane."

With Airbus recently out canvassing traditional Boeing freighter customers with their proposed A350F concept? I think Boeing had to move fast to head this off. Given Boeing's ratty financial condition, I'm sure they were hoping to wait until after the B777X passenger models were certified and in service before hitting the bond market again to fund another development program for the freighter version. Now it seems they might be moving these plans back to the left.

The interesting thing to me is that, by the time these programs (777xf and a350f) are launched, built, certified, and delivered in any kind of quantity, the world will be a very different place again. Less demand for cargo and pax demand returned.

SteelChair wrote:

The interesting thing to me is that, by the time these programs (777xf and a350f) are launched, built, certified, and delivered in any kind of quantity, the world will be a very different place again. Less demand for cargo and pax demand returned.

Good point ! When somebody includes the P2F conversions it makes it even more strange ?

oldJoe wrote:

SteelChair wrote:

The interesting thing to me is that, by the time these programs (777xf and a350f) are launched, built, certified, and delivered in any kind of quantity, the world will be a very different place again. Less demand for cargo and pax demand returned.

Good point ! When somebody includes the P2F conversions it makes it even more strange ?

First, the customers for these expensive new builds are not necessarily those carriers that just got strong with the recent demand. The customers will be long-term cargo players. There are older 747s with blue chip carriers for replacement, plus a still growing cargo market.

Second, the carriers ordering a 777XF likely wont be large P2F conversion customers. Frankly, EK was a surprise. There just wont be much overlap. As mentioned upthread, the markets are different due to the cargo to be carried.

FLALEFTY wrote:

lajaca wrote:

Does this make the 747-8F obsolete already?

After the remainder of the UPS order is completed the B748F program will come to an end at Boeing. Therefore, it could be said that the B748F is "obsolete" as a new freighter aircraft solution for the future. But given their GEnX engines are compliant with the future environmental specs and heavy cargo lift capacity, I expect they will serve profitably well into the next decade.

sxf24 wrote:

UPS would never launch an airplane program. It would be very surprising to see them make a significant investment in airplanes right now. Their CEO has been quite clear about that.

UPS launched the programs with Boeing for the B757PF in 1987 and B767F in 1995.

iamlucky13 wrote:

I'm skeptical the A350F forced Boeing's hand. Maybe it influenced the timing, and certainly it will influence the actual sales prices. Considering how significant of a role freighters have played in Boeing's widebody sales for decades, and in particular for the 777, it has been my assumption from the start that a 777XF would happen eventually.

Boeing has been generally tight-lipped about it, but in the last quarter's earnings call, the CEO did bring it up in response to a question about R&D: "I hope in the relatively near term a freighter version of that [777X] airplane."

With Airbus recently out canvassing traditional Boeing freighter customers with their proposed A350F concept? I think Boeing had to move fast to head this off. Given Boeing's ratty financial condition, I'm sure they were hoping to wait until after the B777X passenger models were certified and in service before hitting the bond market again to fund another development program for the freighter version. Now it seems they might be moving these plans back to the left.

The 748F will still carry a much heavier payload than this new freighter, that makes it far from obsolete

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

Boeing responded,

That’s my 2 cents. I could be VERY wrong but hey

They haven't responded. There is a rumor they could launch the program at an upcoming air show. That's not a response. Maybe that's just F.U.D. becuase they heard that Airbus might announce customers at an upcoming air show.

If the freighter gets delivered before the pax, then this is the 747-8i / 747-8f all over again. A program where only by the grace of the freighter program can it hope to minimize total program losses.

I like the 777-9. I do. I just see history repeating itself where the 368 passenger 777-300ER killed the 416 passenger 747-400. I see the 350 passenger A350-1000 making life extremely difficult for the 400 passenger 777-9. The trend is downsizing. Boeing reinforced the trend when the made the 787 fly almost as far as everything else they had with a much lower passenger load to make it profitable.

The 777-8.5F should be popular. It just has to contend with it's own 777-300ERCF and a possible A350-950F.

Interesting times ahead. It's the first time in recent memory where the two airframe manufacturers have had freighter products so closely matched.

One thing I'm confused is why your comparing the seating capacity of 3 class 77W/351 with 2 class 779? 777-9 seats around 420 according to Boeing in a typical 2 class meaning in 3 class it'll definitely not be a 400 seater. Most guess it'll be a 380 seater in a typical 3 class which seems likely to me.

777-9 will seat what 1 more row of J and 2 more rows of Y than 777-300ER? For most airlines this small gap between 77W and 779 won't make a big difference at all. Will be kinda like replacing 772 with 78X.

The A350-1000 I honestly don't see troubling 777X a lot since the main way these 2 planes will gain orders is by being a 77W replacement and 777-9 is simply the ideal replacement available for 10 abreast 777-300ER i.e almost all of them.

FLALEFTY wrote:

iamlucky13 wrote:

I'm skeptical the A350F forced Boeing's hand. Maybe it influenced the timing, and certainly it will influence the actual sales prices. Considering how significant of a role freighters have played in Boeing's widebody sales for decades, and in particular for the 777, it has been my assumption from the start that a 777XF would happen eventually.

Boeing has been generally tight-lipped about it, but in the last quarter's earnings call, the CEO did bring it up in response to a question about R&D: "I hope in the relatively near term a freighter version of that [777X] airplane."

With Airbus recently out canvassing traditional Boeing freighter customers with their proposed A350F concept? I think Boeing had to move fast to head this off. Given Boeing's ratty financial condition, I'm sure they were hoping to wait until after the B777X passenger models were certified and in service before hitting the bond market again to fund another development program for the freighter version. Now it seems they might be moving these plans back to the left.

Let me pose my thought from a different angle:

- Most of the engineering work on the 777-9 is complete, and it's in flight test. The 777-8 is on hold.
- 737 MAX 7 is almost done with flight test. Most of the engineering work on the 737 MAX 10 is complete, and it just started flight test.
- 767 and 787 are in a mature design phase, although obviously 787 is getting some engineering attention to resolve recent issues.
- NMA is on hold or working on trade studies at seemingly a slow pace.

In other words, there's no major programs under way. Meanwhile, Boeing reduced the size of their workforce by around 15% during the pandemic, with more of the cuts coming from the production side than engineering.

So even after layoffs, Boeing still has 85-90% of the engineers they had when the 777X, 737 MAX, and NMA programs were all publicly more active. In their ratty financial condition, I don't think they kept paying that many engineers to sit around and do nothing. Sure, it's an investment in retaining engineering expertise so they still have it when the next clean sheet launches, but I think they would want to keep the engineers practicing their skill and being productive in some manner, as well.

Hence my thinking that maybe the A350 freighter offering is pulling head Boeing's authority to offer, but of a program that may have already been actively in work.