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Sindhuputra
Topic Author
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Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 8:53 am

Relaunched after 10 years, Sydney - Delhi starts december.

There goes another one of AI's cash cow routes.

https://t.co/iqOlNSV257?amp=1
 
atal17
Posts: 519
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:33 am

Sindhuputra wrote:
Relaunched after 10 years, Sydney - Delhi starts december.

There goes another one of AI's cash cow routes.

https://t.co/iqOlNSV257?amp=1


I don’t think you can call DEL-SYD a cash cow route considering how unlikely it would’ve been for AI to turn a profit on the route with competitors like AK/D7, TG, SQ, MH, UL, CX providing convenient connections and more choices.

I think the only reason QF was able to consider relaunching India is because none of the ASEAN countries have allowed transit passengers from India to continue onward to Australia.
 
airbazar
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:48 am

Does AI have any cash cow routes? Isn't being profitable kind of a prerequisite to having a cash cow route?
 
iyerhari
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:57 pm

airbazar wrote:
Does AI have any cash cow routes? Isn't being profitable kind of a prerequisite to having a cash cow route?

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mum ... 223125.cms

This is dated from 2020 and with COVID, even fewer routes maybe profitable.

With Tata becoming the new owner, there is hope. They take time and with persistence and good management acumen, they will be able to turnaround. But it will take a longtime with the current culture.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:29 pm

airbazar wrote:
Does AI have any cash cow routes? Isn't being profitable kind of a prerequisite to having a cash cow route?


In my experience, no. Bring profitable as a company is not a prerequisite to having individual markets that earn an eye-popping positive profit (revenue minus allocated cost). Every airline has winners and losers.

But, having some profitable routes *is* a prerequisite to having a profitable airline.
 
VTORD
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:33 pm

Congratulations to QF, DEL and SYD!
 
edealinfo
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:08 pm

Why DEL and not Mumbai or BLR?
 
BangersAndMash
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:26 pm

iyerhari wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Does AI have any cash cow routes? Isn't being profitable kind of a prerequisite to having a cash cow route?

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mum ... 223125.cms

This is dated from 2020 and with COVID, even fewer routes maybe profitable.

With Tata becoming the new owner, there is hope. They take time and with persistence and good management acumen, they will be able to turnaround. But it will take a longtime with the current culture.


Are the unions going to play ball though? That's potentially a big problem. You're not going to turn AI around without breaking a few eggs!
 
pbody
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:46 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Why DEL and not Mumbai or BLR?


Delhi is the capital and has a significantly higher population than either Mumbai or Bangalore (in fact it isn't far off having the same population as the two of them combined) Those seem like good enough reasons to me.
 
tinpusher007
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:41 pm

pbody wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Why DEL and not Mumbai or BLR?


Delhi is the capital and has a significantly higher population than either Mumbai or Bangalore (in fact it isn't far off having the same population as the two of them combined) Those seem like good enough reasons to me.


While Im not claiming to be an expert on the population of India, a quick search of it's cities' populations in 2021 reveals the following:

Mumbai 12,691,836
Delhi 10,927,986
Bengaluru 5,104,047
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:47 pm

pbody wrote:
Delhi is the capital and has a significantly higher population than either Mumbai or Bangalore (in fact it isn't far off having the same population as the two of them combined)

That's not even remotely true.

BOM is the larger city.

DEL is the larger metro (which would be more important to an airline), but only by 22% as per the last census.... and nowhere close to the combined metros of BOM+BLR
 
9w748capt
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:03 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Why DEL and not Mumbai or BLR?


Politics? DEL seems to get more love from intl carriers relative to BOM.
 
avier
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:47 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Why DEL and not Mumbai or BLR?

DEL has a larger catchment area from states like Punjab, from where a larger% of Indian immigrant population comes from, that are settled in some western countries. That's why you see all those flights from DEL to Canada and now Australia, not because of Delhi's population, but because of its proximity to states like Punjab/Haryana.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 7:33 pm

Sindhuputra wrote:
Relaunched after 10 years, Sydney - Delhi starts december.

There goes another one of AI's cash cow routes.

https://t.co/iqOlNSV257?amp=1


10 years since they last flew to India which was BOM via SIN, alot longer since they flew to DEL, 1970s maybe?
 
sprxUSA
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 7:38 pm

It isn't launched until they actually do it. They are planning on launching it.....
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 7:42 pm

Perhaps QF could build on AA's lead and partner with Indigo to feed the routes at their Indian destinations.

At this point in time, what does QF plan on using, on this route? 787 seems like the winner, no?
Additionally...

https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/welcome-decision-qantas-announces-direct-flights-to-india
"Flights from Sydney to Delhi would operate via Darwin, while flights from Delhi to Sydney would operate nonstop," it said.


So, again, Qantas adding capacity via DRW on the way out. It's a decent way to pair international and domestic flight demands for aircraft utilization.
 
xwb777
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:02 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
Perhaps QF could build on AA's lead and partner with Indigo to feed the routes at their Indian destinations.

At this point in time, what does QF plan on using, on this route? 787 seems like the winner, no?
Additionally...

https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/welcome-decision-qantas-announces-direct-flights-to-india
"Flights from Sydney to Delhi would operate via Darwin, while flights from Delhi to Sydney would operate nonstop," it said.


So, again, Qantas adding capacity via DRW on the way out. It's a decent way to pair international and domestic flight demands for aircraft utilization.


Qantas will operate the A330 on the route.
 
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IceCream
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:05 pm

avier wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Why DEL and not Mumbai or BLR?

DEL has a larger catchment area from states like Punjab, from where a larger% of Indian immigrant population comes from, that are settled in some western countries. That's why you see all those flights from DEL to Canada and now Australia, not because of Delhi's population, but because of its proximity to states like Punjab/Haryana.

This is very true. Almost everyone on the Canada-DEL flights are Punjabis or Haryanvis.
 
dredgy
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:10 am

xwb777 wrote:
Qantas will operate the A330 on the route.


They operate it on DRW anyway at the moment, at least from Brisbane. And flights were packed last month.
 
oceanvikram
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:01 pm

Great move by QF on SYD-DEL. QF can sell the tickets at a premium even though it will be mostly VFR traffic and Indians in general are cheap but when it comes to travelling to India and if there is no other option than they will pay.

The North Indians in Sydney are bit better financially as compared to Melbourne.

My wife is from one those northern Indian states as mentioned before. In normal times she would refuse to pay more than $1,200 on PER - transit - DEL and would be happy flying Air Asia, Malaysian, Scoot or China Southern. But since she has not seen her family for 2 years, she is willing to fork out $2,500 return on any airline.

I hate to think what the conditions of the toilets will be at the end of each leg.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:08 pm

QF's tried Aust-India a few times over the years. The second last attempt was SYD-BOM non-stop and via DRW on the eastbound.

The most recent attempt was a ADL-SIN-BOM service on a A330. The SIN-BOM-SIN leg carried the BNE flight numbers (QF51/52), as BNE-SIN-BNE at the time was a daily 744 (BNE-SIN was downgauged back to a A330 when ADL-SIN and SIN-BOM was both axed).
 
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EK413
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:17 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
QF's tried Aust-India a few times over the years. The second last attempt was SYD-BOM non-stop and via DRW on the eastbound.

The most recent attempt was a ADL-SIN-BOM service on a A330. The SIN-BOM-SIN leg carried the BNE flight numbers (QF51/52), as BNE-SIN-BNE at the time was a daily 744 (BNE-SIN was downgauged back to a A330 when ADL-SIN and SIN-BOM was both axed).

Other way around with westbound leg SYD-DRW-BOM & BOM-SYD on the eastbound leg.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
behramjee
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:47 pm

Just to clear up some facts:

1. This new flight is not operated nonstop from SYD to DEL using an A332. As per the GDS system, it makes a stop in DRW en-route

2. Services are flown 3 weekly on Days 1/4/6

3. The return DEL-SYD sector is flown nonstop with a block time of 12:15 which is do able on the A332 with minimal pax payload restriction (largely cargo would take a hit here albeit not too much since free baggage allowance is not 2pc for pax)

4. DEL-SYD/MEL market demand is far bigger than any other Tier 1 Indian city...2019 round trip pax stats below

DEL/SYD - 195K
DEL/MEL - 248K
BOM/SYD - 83K
BOM/MEL - 74K
BLR/SYD - 50K
BLR/MEL - 49K
MAA/SYD - 36K
MAA/MEL - 34K
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:40 pm

oceanvikram wrote:

I hate to think what the conditions of the toilets will be at the end of each leg.

Nothing different from any of the nonstop routes from USA to India.
SYD-DEL is shorter than any of the US-India routes.
 
Adipocere
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:29 pm

If they are willing to give South Asia a spin, what’s the likelihood of Qantas extending into LHE or ISB?
 
ahj2000
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:39 pm

Adipocere wrote:
If they are willing to give South Asia a spin, what’s the likelihood of Qantas extending into LHE or ISB?

I’d venture highly unlikely.
Pakistani Australians: 97220
Indian Australians: 721050
And the Indians are given a 3 weekly flight, much more business, presumed safer country, etc.
 
LAXLHR
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:36 pm

tinpusher007 wrote:
pbody wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Why DEL and not Mumbai or BLR?


Delhi is the capital and has a significantly higher population than either Mumbai or Bangalore (in fact it isn't far off having the same population as the two of them combined) Those seem like good enough reasons to me.


While Im not claiming to be an expert on the population of India, a quick search of it's cities' populations in 2021 reveals the following:

Mumbai 12,691,836
Delhi 10,927,986
Bengaluru 5,104,047


A quick search is not worth the time then? :-) Denver's population is 700,000, but the metro is 3 million (which locals consider one big city area).

As someone on here that does travel to India a lot for work, I can tell you that the population of Delhi would blow one's mind. Add in the whole metro area of Delhi / New Delhi / Noida / - especially Gurugram and others...and the population is over 31 million. Then factor in transfer connections from the most populated state in India - Uttar Pradesh 166 million people right next door. The Punjab and Rajasthan states and you have a massive catchment area over 300 million people surrounding DEL airport in neighboring states. Also pulling in massive transfers from Kathmandu, and Agra (Taj Mahal - land transfers)

Mumbai is around 22 million, and Bengaluru is close to 13 million in their respective metro areas.

Mumbai is Bollywood, industries, and the financial capital, but DEL is government and much more. Many will backtrack to DEL, and granted it's a 2 hr flight from CCU and BOM....but then straight to Oz. Otherwise, the states mid-country and below might choose to go via SE Asia, especially Colombo for Bengaluru. Major backtrack to the ME3 is not ideal, although I'm sure a few do it.

As someone else mentioned about this route being an AI cash cow. In the AV geek world. so many think if it's not JFK-LHR or some other sexy route, it's not a moneymaker, or big money. QF would rather run this plane to other places, but since they are not working for now - they see an opportunity in AI's backyard. AI would, and will continue to do ok with this route. AI is not unprofitable because they can't pull revenue in....that's a much wider conversation, centered around corruption and ego.
 
avier
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 4:22 am

LAXLHR wrote:
As someone on here that does travel to India a lot for work, I can tell you that the population of Delhi would blow one's mind. Add in the whole metro area of Delhi / New Delhi / Noida / - especially Gurugram and others...and the population is over 31 million. Then factor in transfer connections from the most populated state in India - Uttar Pradesh 166 million people right next door. The Punjab and Rajasthan states and you have a massive catchment area over 300 million people surrounding DEL airport in neighboring states. Also pulling in massive transfers from Kathmandu, and Agra (Taj Mahal - land transfers)

Also to add plenty of tourist and pilgrim sites, in those nearby states, that are all easily accessible from DEL by air or land transport be it Haridwar or Jaipur, Golden Temple or the Buddhist sites in UP at Gaya or even Varanasi & Khajuraho, and up north Kashmir, Himachal, Uttrakhand, Leh Ladakh.
From other metro's there isn't such variety of tourist or pilgrim sites to connect on to. BOM is more O&D with some traffic from other smaller cities around. BLR may work with feed from all other southern cities.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:14 am

LAX772LR wrote:
pbody wrote:
Delhi is the capital and has a significantly higher population than either Mumbai or Bangalore (in fact it isn't far off having the same population as the two of them combined)

That's not even remotely true.

BOM is the larger city.

DEL is the larger metro (which would be more important to an airline), but only by 22% as per the last census.... and nowhere close to the combined metros of BOM+BLR


While BOM certainly has higher O&D and more premium demand, DEL has a much larger catchment area with Punjab, North Rajasthan, West UP, Uttarakhand and Himachal tied to DEL for international travel. Viability of DEL as an international gateway is dependent on this artificial funneling of traffic.

Ideally, Punjab should have atleast 2 well developed international gateways in IXC and ATQ. However the powers that be in Delhi find it fit to route all North India traffic via DEL hub.

Punjab Govt and the substantial Non-Resident Punjabi community should do what Keral people did in the 1980's - collect money and build our own international gateway airport instead of feeding Delhi!
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:34 am

Let's not get too excited about this route launch - at this stage it's only a temporary offering until March. It may continue after that if demand warrants it, but at this stage there's no commitment.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:43 am

SCFlyer wrote:
QF's tried Aust-India a few times over the years.

Yes, I remember travelling from LHR to MEL via BOM in the mid-'80s. It was QF's first one-stop service to Europe, and operated on a triangular route LHR-BOM-SYD-MEL-BOM-LHR with B747-300s. It didn't last long before BOM was replaced with a BKK stopover.
 
atal17
Posts: 519
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:07 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Let's not get too excited about this route launch - at this stage it's only a temporary offering until March. It may continue after that if demand warrants it, but at this stage there's no commitment.


I speculate that QF may decide if they want to commit to India after seeing how the A330s perform financially on BNE-LAX/SFO.

If QF thinks that sufficient demand has returned on BNE-LAX/SFO where they can resume using B787s, then they may give SYD-DEL a proper consideration where they’d drop the DRW stopover and consider a 4 weekly A330 service instead.

Otherwise, I think SYD-DEL will be dropped until sufficient premium demand emerges. IIRC, Qantas’s outlook for India pre-COVID was suggesting the use of A321LRs to fly between India and Australia via Singapore because they were convinced the sector had become extremely competitive. (Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong)
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1950
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:25 am

DavidByrne wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
QF's tried Aust-India a few times over the years.

Yes, I remember travelling from LHR to MEL via BOM in the mid-'80s. It was QF's first one-stop service to Europe, and operated on a triangular route LHR-BOM-SYD-MEL-BOM-LHR with B747-300s. It didn't last long before BOM was replaced with a BKK stopover.

And earlier than that there was a service SYD/MEL(???)-PER-BOM-LHR.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:25 am

atal17 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Let's not get too excited about this route launch - at this stage it's only a temporary offering until March. It may continue after that if demand warrants it, but at this stage there's no commitment.


I speculate that QF may decide if they want to commit to India after seeing how the A330s perform financially on BNE-LAX/SFO.

If QF thinks that sufficient demand has returned on BNE-LAX/SFO where they can resume using B787s, then they may give SYD-DEL a proper consideration where they’d drop the DRW stopover and consider a 4 weekly A330 service instead.

Otherwise, I think SYD-DEL will be dropped until sufficient premium demand emerges. IIRC, Qantas’s outlook for India pre-COVID was suggesting the use of A321LRs to fly between India and Australia via Singapore because they were convinced the sector had become extremely competitive. (Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong)


BNE-LAX/SFO on A332s has everything to do with a lack of aircraft and nothing to do with demand, though demand will likely be less than what it was for a while. Should the A332 do ok on the route I don’t see a return to 789s to quickly on the route.

A321LRs to India via SIN? Im just not sure what going via SIN would offer even given the smaller capacity of the A321LRs. It is competitive via SIN better left to SQ while QF can find another partner via one of the hubs. QF either IMO go non stop from SYD to DEL/BOM or don’t bother I would think, it will be interesting to see if this sticks around or if AI return to SYD/MEL.
 
oceanvikram
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:50 am

Adipocere wrote:
If they are willing to give South Asia a spin, what’s the likelihood of Qantas extending into LHE or ISB?


I think there is next to no chance due to the following:
[list=]Security - Qantas is a very conservative airline and any potential safety risk, they will not touch.

Very low yielding traffic - There are more business ties between India and Australia than Australia and Pakistan. So the pointy end of the plane will have some chance of getting full on Indian destinations. There are stronger diplomatic ties between India and Australia, joint anti-terrorism initiatives and the QAUD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue that includes Australia, India, Japan and USA).[/list]

Sri Lanka has a better chance to see the flying kangaroo at their ports after India.
 
oceanvikram
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 pm

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:05 am

behramjee wrote:
Just to clear up some facts:

1. This new flight is not operated nonstop from SYD to DEL using an A332. As per the GDS system, it makes a stop in DRW en-route

2. Services are flown 3 weekly on Days 1/4/6

3. The return DEL-SYD sector is flown nonstop with a block time of 12:15 which is do able on the A332 with minimal pax payload restriction (largely cargo would take a hit here albeit not too much since free baggage allowance is not 2pc for pax)

4. DEL-SYD/MEL market demand is far bigger than any other Tier 1 Indian city...2019 round trip pax stats below

DEL/SYD - 195K
DEL/MEL - 248K
BOM/SYD - 83K
BOM/MEL - 74K
BLR/SYD - 50K
BLR/MEL - 49K
MAA/SYD - 36K
MAA/MEL - 34K


Out of those numbers, how many passengers are extremely price sensitive? For DEL, I would gather 99%. To me for year round flights and a better chance of filling J class cabin, its MEL/SYD - BOM and then MEL/SYD - BLR.
 
hohd
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 1:03 am

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:59 pm

DEL has more international traffic not just to Canada or Australia, most of SE Asia, Europe and many cities in US, except Middle east and Africa. DEL has grown in business, with the tourism sector and govt traffic, it has and will always have the maximum traffic. Any airline contemplating starting a new service will consider and serve DEL first and then other cities later.

In the latest international traffic figures, DEL is nearly 3 times BOM traffic and even pre-pandemic it was at least 25% more.and the gap has been widening.steadily over the years.
 
Breathe
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:46 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
I hate to think what the conditions of the toilets will be at the end of each leg.

Tends to be a different type of demographic that travels between Australia and India compared to the Middle East nations? A friend of mine worked for EK as cabin crew and told me he was always crest fallen when he found out he'd be doing South Asian routes, especially the Pakistani routes. Being of Pakistani descent and speaking Urdu he got put on them a lot and had some proper horror stories about the state of the toilets by the end of the flight!
 
sand26391
Posts: 741
Joined: Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:47 am

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:12 pm

behramjee wrote:
Just to clear up some facts:

4. DEL-SYD/MEL market demand is far bigger than any other Tier 1 Indian city...2019 round trip pax stats below

DEL/SYD - 195K
DEL/MEL - 248K
BOM/SYD - 83K
BOM/MEL - 74K
BLR/SYD - 50K
BLR/MEL - 49K
MAA/SYD - 36K
MAA/MEL - 34K


What about HYD? I believe it's above MAA-SYD & MAA-MEL & below BLR-SYD/MEL.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:40 pm

oceanvikram wrote:
Out of those numbers, how many passengers are extremely price sensitive? For DEL, I would gather 99%. To me for year round flights and a better chance of filling J class cabin, its MEL/SYD - BOM and then MEL/SYD - BLR.


Why, or on what factual basis do you arrive at 99%, or is it just a pure guess for effect? I would imagine that QF know a lot more than you taking guesses
 
atal17
Posts: 519
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:56 am

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:32 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
atal17 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Let's not get too excited about this route launch - at this stage it's only a temporary offering until March. It may continue after that if demand warrants it, but at this stage there's no commitment.


I speculate that QF may decide if they want to commit to India after seeing how the A330s perform financially on BNE-LAX/SFO.

If QF thinks that sufficient demand has returned on BNE-LAX/SFO where they can resume using B787s, then they may give SYD-DEL a proper consideration where they’d drop the DRW stopover and consider a 4 weekly A330 service instead.

Otherwise, I think SYD-DEL will be dropped until sufficient premium demand emerges. IIRC, Qantas’s outlook for India pre-COVID was suggesting the use of A321LRs to fly between India and Australia via Singapore because they were convinced the sector had become extremely competitive. (Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong)


BNE-LAX/SFO on A332s has everything to do with a lack of aircraft and nothing to do with demand, though demand will likely be less than what it was for a while. Should the A332 do ok on the route I don’t see a return to 789s to quickly on the route.

A321LRs to India via SIN? Im just not sure what going via SIN would offer even given the smaller capacity of the A321LRs. It is competitive via SIN better left to SQ while QF can find another partner via one of the hubs. QF either IMO go non stop from SYD to DEL/BOM or don’t bother I would think, it will be interesting to see if this sticks around or if AI return to SYD/MEL.


I think what I meant was that should the A330 do well for QF in BNE-LAX/SFO, then DEL-SYD may not last for another season.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic - QF’s Investor Presentation for 2019 sort of alluded to a scenario where they could potentially consider launching routes via SIN to India because their partner 9W had collapsed at the time and they had lost one of their major feeds on their SIN flights. Page 89 of Qantas’s Investor Day 2019 report puts their outlook on India, which is what I based my previous post on.

https://investor.qantas.com/FormBuilder ... y-2019.pdf

FWIW, as long as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Hong Kong continue to lock out India originating pax through flight bans and restrictions - QF has a good business case here. But once SQ returns in full force - they might find it harder to hold on. Although, 3 of the carriers that used to ply passengers between India and Australia are struggling extremely (MH, TG, AK/D7), so there is that as well.
 
hohd
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 1:03 am

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Tue Oct 26, 2021 1:56 pm

atal17 wrote:

FWIW, as long as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Hong Kong continue to lock out India originating pax through flight bans and restrictions - QF has a good business case here. But once SQ returns in full force - they might find it harder to hold on. Although, 3 of the carriers that used to ply passengers between India and Australia are struggling extremely (MH, TG, AK/D7), so there is that as well.


There always will be 1 stop competition no matter what the route that AI or the carrier of the country introduces. Nonstop is preferred and post pandemic it could be norm. AI was successful in nonstop to SFO and somewhat with IAD and UA copied SFO, but there are a ton of 1 stop options, still the route continued. Same with Canada. And now with Australia, AI had introduced nonstop pre-pandemic and QF no doubt noticed that.

Traffic patterns do not remain constant, they change all the time and passenger habits change too.
 
evanb
Posts: 977
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:11 pm

hohd wrote:
atal17 wrote:

FWIW, as long as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Hong Kong continue to lock out India originating pax through flight bans and restrictions - QF has a good business case here. But once SQ returns in full force - they might find it harder to hold on. Although, 3 of the carriers that used to ply passengers between India and Australia are struggling extremely (MH, TG, AK/D7), so there is that as well.


There always will be 1 stop competition no matter what the route that AI or the carrier of the country introduces. Nonstop is preferred and post pandemic it could be norm. AI was successful in nonstop to SFO and somewhat with IAD and UA copied SFO, but there are a ton of 1 stop options, still the route continued. Same with Canada. And now with Australia, AI had introduced nonstop pre-pandemic and QF no doubt noticed that.

Traffic patterns do not remain constant, they change all the time and passenger habits change too.


In all fairness, it's hard to define success based on any routes AI flew. Given that their net profit margins were negative 28% in 2019-20 and negative 32% in 2018-19, I would hazard a guess than it's hard to draw inference that another carrier might be advised to fly a route because AI did (while nobody else did). That in itself may suggest that outside of the very unique circumstances that exist at present, that QF stay far away from it.
 
avier
Posts: 1328
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:09 am

evanb wrote:
In all fairness, it's hard to define success based on any routes AI flew. Given that their net profit margins were negative 28% in 2019-20 and negative 32% in 2018-19, I would hazard a guess than it's hard to draw inference that another carrier might be advised to fly a route because AI did (while nobody else did). That in itself may suggest that outside of the very unique circumstances that exist at present, that QF stay far away from it.

Just because an airline is loss making, one can't conclude every route they are flying is a poor route choice.

If an airline X is loss making and they happen to fly JFK-LHR, one can't now say other airlines should stay away from this route because another airline that's loss making flies this route so its probably a money loser. Weird conclusion.

They are loss making because of their overall cost structure of the airline and the large debts they have with accumulating interests i.e they are stuck in a debt trap.

Airlines have access to traffic data, even of other airlines, and can draw their own inferences from the said data irrespective of whether the other airline serving such routes are profitable or loss making as a whole.

AI finances never gave a breakup of which route makes money or not. Also, if AI int'l route choices were so bad, UA wouldn't be jumping at every other route of AI on the India-US market and literally start network mirroring them.
 
evanb
Posts: 977
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:36 am

avier wrote:
Just because an airline is loss making, one can't conclude every route they are flying is a poor route choice.


Based on the same methodology, how can one say that a said route is profitable or a good choice? Air India's history suggests caution.

avier wrote:
They are loss making because of their overall cost structure of the airline and the large debts they have with accumulating interests i.e they are stuck in a debt trap.


They have a history of making poor decisions, including flying vanity routes. They have a history of procuring aircraft for political purposes and vanity, which they then need to put in the air, often burning a lot of money in doing so. The poor cost structure and large debts are a result of many things including political interference (which extends to route selection) and a legacy of poor management (again, including route selection). So yes, the fact that AI chose to fly a route should be taken with caution for other airlines.

avier wrote:
Airlines have access to traffic data, even of other airlines, and can draw their own inferences from the said data irrespective of whether the other airline serving such routes are profitable or loss making as a whole.


From my own experience on the financial side of airlines, a lot of that data is data from ones competitors. Understanding the revenue and cost potential comes from your competitors. The fact that AI performs overall so poorly means it's difficult to draw any inference on specific routes (my original point).

avier wrote:
AI finances never gave a breakup of which route makes money or not. Also, if AI int'l route choices were so bad, UA wouldn't be jumping at every other route of AI on the India-US market and literally start network mirroring them.


Are they? I mean, they're starting SFO-BLR, so that's one. I have not seen them jump onto IAD-DEL or ORD-HYD. But even then, QF is not UA. UA has a very different cost structure to QF. QF struggles with much higher capital and labor costs than many of its peers. Furthermore, UA (like the the other US big three) are revenue machines, able to generate awesome yields, especially at the front of the cabin, something that QF are not quite as well endowed with.
 
behramjee
Posts: 5180
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:25 am

Update is that as per GDS system, QF will boost SYD-DEL to daily service effective Monday 03Jan-2022. The increased flights are now open for sale.
 
behramjee
Posts: 5180
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:26 am

sand26391 wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Just to clear up some facts:

4. DEL-SYD/MEL market demand is far bigger than any other Tier 1 Indian city...2019 round trip pax stats below

DEL/SYD - 195K
DEL/MEL - 248K
BOM/SYD - 83K
BOM/MEL - 74K
BLR/SYD - 50K
BLR/MEL - 49K
MAA/SYD - 36K
MAA/MEL - 34K


What about HYD? I believe it's above MAA-SYD & MAA-MEL & below BLR-SYD/MEL.


HYD-MEL was 51K
HYD-SYD was 47K

So more or less the same demand as BLR to/from these two Aussie cities.
 
VTORD
Posts: 785
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:27 am

avier wrote:
AI finances never gave a breakup of which route makes money or not. Also, if AI int'l route choices were so bad, UA wouldn't be jumping at every other route of AI on the India-US market and literally start network mirroring them.


evanb wrote:
Are they? I mean, they're starting SFO-BLR, so that's one. I have not seen them jump onto IAD-DEL or ORD-HYD. But even then, QF is not UA. UA has a very different cost structure to QF. QF struggles with much higher capital and labor costs than many of its peers. Furthermore, UA (like the the other US big three) are revenue machines, able to generate awesome yields, especially at the front of the cabin, something that QF are not quite as well endowed with.

AI / UA
DEL-SFO / SFO-DEL
DEL-JFK /
DEL - EWR / EWR-DEL
DEL-IAD / -
BOM-EWR / EWR - BOM
DEL-ORD / ORD-DEL
BLR-SFO / SFO-BLR

I am not sure what the frequencies on DEL-ORD are for UA - I know that a friend flew UA-UK ORD-DEL-PNQ around July this year.
Pre-pandemic, AI's ORD-HYD AI126/127 used to be a DEL - HYD tag, the direct HYD flight was started under Vande Bharat unless I am wrong on this. And even that I think follows a HYD-ORD-DEL-ORD-HYD rotation. So yeah he's pretty much on the money here. Every other India-US Market.
 
evanb
Posts: 977
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:53 am

VTORD wrote:
avier wrote:
AI finances never gave a breakup of which route makes money or not. Also, if AI int'l route choices were so bad, UA wouldn't be jumping at every other route of AI on the India-US market and literally start network mirroring them.


evanb wrote:
Are they? I mean, they're starting SFO-BLR, so that's one. I have not seen them jump onto IAD-DEL or ORD-HYD. But even then, QF is not UA. UA has a very different cost structure to QF. QF struggles with much higher capital and labor costs than many of its peers. Furthermore, UA (like the the other US big three) are revenue machines, able to generate awesome yields, especially at the front of the cabin, something that QF are not quite as well endowed with.

AI / UA
DEL-SFO / SFO-DEL
DEL-JFK /
DEL - EWR / EWR-DEL
DEL-IAD / -
BOM-EWR / EWR - BOM
DEL-ORD / ORD-DEL
BLR-SFO / SFO-BLR

I am not sure what the frequencies on DEL-ORD are for UA - I know that a friend flew UA-UK ORD-DEL-PNQ around July this year.
Pre-pandemic, AI's ORD-HYD AI126/127 used to be a DEL - HYD tag, the direct HYD flight was started under Vande Bharat unless I am wrong on this. And even that I think follows a HYD-ORD-DEL-ORD-HYD rotation. So yeah he's pretty much on the money here. Every other India-US Market.


The argument wasn't that they don't fly the same routes, but that "if AI int'l route choices were so bad, UA wouldn't be jumping at every other route of AI on the India-US market and literally start network mirroring them." The argument made, I would say naively, was that AI are the leader and that UA simply follow AI. I would say that that notion is ludicrous. With the exception of flights to JFK, all AI flights to the United States are into UA hubs (that is not, I would say, accidental). Since the open skies agreement came into play around 2005, Continental were the first to offer non-stop flights between the United States and India (EWR-DEL), soon to be followed by EWR-BOM (Continental a precursor to UA here). At that time, AI was flying to JFK, LAX and ORD, but not non-stop (that only came around 2007 and some routes only around 2009). I concede that UA are following AI on SFO-BLR, but the rest, hardly. If anything, Continental's push at non-stop forced AI's hand.
 
hohd
Posts: 1057
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 1:03 am

Re: Qantas launches Delhi

Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:51 pm

The fact remains is that AI was flying to Australia pre-pandemic and QF noticed that, better late than never. AI is not starting routes from BOM and no one is doing them either. So indeed other carriers are looking at AI for traffic patterns.

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