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xiaotung
Posts: 1114
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:11 am

Kiwings wrote:
Jetstar getting ready for an FEB restart.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/tra ... RA5GDYRG4/

I would have thought the initial demand will be very much VFR traffic, so the likes of TG MH and even SQ and CX could be scratching for passengers. SQ and CX have been relying on the cargo subsidy - what happens when the Govt. Pulls the plug on that. So maybe airlines like KE, CI and PR will see better uptake initially.
Not sure the PRC carriers will see big uptake at the start.
Will be interesting to see what happens.


Chinese carriers will be guaranteed not having any uptake due to capacity rectrictions imposed by China being extended well into mid 2022. CX will also struggle as Hong Kong continues to chase COVID Zero strategy. The Winter Olympics will really be the pinnacle of what's to come next.
 
NPL8800
Posts: 162
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:20 am

Just some of my thoughts.....

I feel that all the airlines that previously served this country will return in time, likely over a rolling 12-24 month period. I feel that we were lucky in the respect that the majority of what could have been termed "vanity routes/carriers" of the 2015-2018 period had long gone prior to the pandemic and what remained on the whole I feel were reasonably sound and sustainable. I don't neccesarily agree with the skepticism towards the likes of CTU and SZX, I believe both have their place in the route network and are anchored by sizeable populations, economies and have a degree of tourism appeal as well as an added bonus, CTU especially. Could see EK maybe swap the DPS-DXB for something else, they seem committed to operating a minimum of double daily to AKL in some shape or form, imagine the non stop will return reasonably quickly but possibly reverting back to the 77L in the initial months.

I too feel that the transfer routes will likely be slower to return to previous levels than O&D/point to point but I could be wrong, I take anything that aviation and economic commentators say about the industry at the moment with a grain of salt as they have consistently been proven wrong time and time again with their often doom and gloom predictions.

As far as frequencies go, I'd rather see plenty of 3-4 weekly and flights added if demand exceeds supply vs coming in with a bang at daily only to have mass cancellations follow and reduce people's trust. Could maybe see more triangle routes initially too but that does throw in complexities.

I agree with the possibility that alliance partners may assist a lot more in the first year as well, particularly with UA, SQ and CX.

I think VA will be an interesting one to watch, I feel they will be a bit subdued and looks like a focus on AKL and ZQN initially. Would not be surprised if SYD-WLG didn't return but can see all their BNE routes coming back at varying frequencies except maybe DUD but you never know.

CHC long haul will be interesting to follow, depending on how fast connections come back I could maybe see CX skipping the 22NW season but returning the following year. SQ and EK will likely be stable. CZ maybe the year after in NS23. I could see AA doing the 22NW in some form, perhaps a reduced season of Jan-Mar 23.

Plenty of perhaps, maybes and possiblies!
 
GW54
Posts: 98
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:59 am

Zkpilot wrote:
6x 77W to come back is the plan. The 7th frame I would be surprised if they don’t also bring that back. Remembering of course that while NZ has dropped some routes, they’ve also dropped 8x 77E (and the extra leased 77W). So 9x big aircraft.
The other factors to consider is that lease costs for 77W have collapsed and they can lift more payload than a 789.


6 A/C schedule with 1extra frame to provide maintenance cover for both 77W and 787 fleets seems likely. Aircraft would also provide additional capacity for peak periods.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Mon Nov 08, 2021 5:54 am

NZ516 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Kiwings wrote:
So if the international borders open in early 2021 to NZ passport holders/residents and I am hearing 31JAN could be the date, what airlines are going to restart what services and with what aircraft. Be interesting to see what markets bounce back quicker than others. Let's see who is the best forecaster ?



Hard to say I think but some of the smaller secondry Chinese carriers I wouldn’t see returning. Most others I would see returning with lower frequency smaller aircraft in some cases. I’ll give some rough guesstimates but that is all they are if we use Jan 31st as a date. Some haven’t stopped but have changed aircraft types etc. not expecting to see AA until Oct 2022, Or UA who have the PW 772 fleet still grounded currently until those are flying again.

SQ 10 weekly 77W
CX daily 359
MH 5 weekly A332
KE 4 weekly 789
TG 4 weekly 359
EK daily 77W via KUL
QR 3 weekly 77W via BNE
CA 4 weekly 789
CZ 10 weekly 789
MU daily A332
CI 4 weekly A359 TPE non stop
PR 2 weekly A333 MNL non stop
HA 3 weekly A332
LA 3 weekly 789 SCL-AKL-SYD
TN 2 weekly 789


This is a lot of capacity to be brought back in. Not sure if it will be this much services. Especially if arrivals still need MIQ.
I expect QF, JQ and FJ will return one day as well.
How much flying will NZ do? it will take time before it ramps up. Many routes won't return due to much smaller fleet and frequencies will be down.
I expect no more 787 flying out of CHC eg the SIN and PER routes won't be back just not enough aircraft to go round.


It isn't that much capacity when you consider freight, how long will the freight subsidy last? So adding additional pax to the freight and few pax services that are already flying, in the case of SQ, CX, EK, QR, CI, CZ they have never stopped.

FJ are scheduled to return daily with mainly A330s with Fiji opening in December, they have been running near daily freight services, QF and JQ will be back when the Tasman opens up.

In terms of NZ they aren't returning to LHR, gone pre covid and EZE, they so far havn't said anything else about dropping routes however I wouldn't be surprised if 1-2 others don't return, they still plan to fly to EWR when they can.

I do personally agree that NZ CHC-PER/SIN won't come back for a while, SQ will cover SIN initially and PER will be boosted from AKL atleast initially.
 
NZ516
Posts: 989
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Mon Nov 08, 2021 6:03 am

Here is some optimism for Air NZ will ramp up flying from AKL with domestic flights going up from 2 per day to CHC to 14 per day. WLG goes from 1 per day to 17 from Dec 6 when AKL is expected to be at 90%.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industri ... december-6
 
zkncj
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Mon Nov 08, 2021 6:41 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Here is some optimism for Air NZ will ramp up flying from AKL with domestic flights going up from 2 per day to CHC to 14 per day. WLG goes from 1 per day to 17 from Dec 6 when AKL is expected to be at 90%.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industri ... december-6


Adding to that from the 14 December (12+) need to be either fully jabbed or negative test within 72hours to fly NZ domesitcly .

[url]https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126926545/covid19-air-nz-to-make-full-vaccination-or-negative-test-compulsory-for-domestic-travel
[/url]
 
a7ala
Posts: 438
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Mon Nov 08, 2021 8:03 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Here is some optimism for Air NZ will ramp up flying from AKL with domestic flights going up from 2 per day to CHC to 14 per day. WLG goes from 1 per day to 17 from Dec 6 when AKL is expected to be at 90%.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industri ... december-6


I wouldnt read too much into this article. Its their new NW21 unadjusted domestic schedule which they continue to adjust as the pandemic rolls on.
 
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V60Polestar
Posts: 24
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Mon Nov 08, 2021 8:33 pm

Jetstar is to start some trans-Tasman cargo flights this month for Qantas Freight using their 787-8s. The first service begins today as JQ9993 from Melbourne.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:07 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Here is some optimism for Air NZ will ramp up flying from AKL with domestic flights going up from 2 per day to CHC to 14 per day. WLG goes from 1 per day to 17 from Dec 6 when AKL is expected to be at 90%.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industri ... december-6


Adding to that from the 14 December (12+) need to be either fully jabbed or negative test within 72hours to fly NZ domesitcly .

[url]https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126926545/covid19-air-nz-to-make-full-vaccination-or-negative-test-compulsory-for-domestic-travel
[/url]

Good call by NZ.
 
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LamboAston
Posts: 680
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:01 am

NPL8800 wrote:
Just some of my thoughts.....

I feel that all the airlines that previously served this country will return in time, likely over a rolling 12-24 month period. I feel that we were lucky in the respect that the majority of what could have been termed "vanity routes/carriers" of the 2015-2018 period had long gone prior to the pandemic and what remained on the whole I feel were reasonably sound and sustainable. I don't neccesarily agree with the skepticism towards the likes of CTU and SZX, I believe both have their place in the route network and are anchored by sizeable populations, economies and have a degree of tourism appeal as well as an added bonus, CTU especially. Could see EK maybe swap the DPS-DXB for something else, they seem committed to operating a minimum of double daily to AKL in some shape or form, imagine the non stop will return reasonably quickly but possibly reverting back to the 77L in the initial months.

I too feel that the transfer routes will likely be slower to return to previous levels than O&D/point to point but I could be wrong, I take anything that aviation and economic commentators say about the industry at the moment with a grain of salt as they have consistently been proven wrong time and time again with their often doom and gloom predictions.

As far as frequencies go, I'd rather see plenty of 3-4 weekly and flights added if demand exceeds supply vs coming in with a bang at daily only to have mass cancellations follow and reduce people's trust. Could maybe see more triangle routes initially too but that does throw in complexities.

I agree with the possibility that alliance partners may assist a lot more in the first year as well, particularly with UA, SQ and CX.

I think VA will be an interesting one to watch, I feel they will be a bit subdued and looks like a focus on AKL and ZQN initially. Would not be surprised if SYD-WLG didn't return but can see all their BNE routes coming back at varying frequencies except maybe DUD but you never know.

CHC long haul will be interesting to follow, depending on how fast connections come back I could maybe see CX skipping the 22NW season but returning the following year. SQ and EK will likely be stable. CZ maybe the year after in NS23. I could see AA doing the 22NW in some form, perhaps a reduced season of Jan-Mar 23.

Plenty of perhaps, maybes and possiblies!


I would have expected VA to return to Dunedin, as it was their second most profitable Tasman route. However the VA signage is gone from the terminal. Has it been removed anywhere else in the country?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:53 am

LamboAston wrote:
I would have expected VA to return to Dunedin, as it was their second most profitable Tasman route. However the VA signage is gone from the terminal. Has it been removed anywhere else in the country?


BNE-DUD almost seems like an route that would be suited to JQ? Although JQ doesn’t really have much of an international operation in BNE.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 5:41 am

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Kiwings wrote:
So if the international borders open in early 2021 to NZ passport holders/residents and I am hearing 31JAN could be the date, what airlines are going to restart what services and with what aircraft. Be interesting to see what markets bounce back quicker than others. Let's see who is the best forecaster ?



Hard to say I think but some of the smaller secondry Chinese carriers I wouldn’t see returning. Most others I would see returning with lower frequency smaller aircraft in some cases. I’ll give some rough guesstimates but that is all they are if we use Jan 31st as a date. Some haven’t stopped but have changed aircraft types etc. not expecting to see AA until Oct 2022, Or UA who have the PW 772 fleet still grounded currently until those are flying again.

SQ 10 weekly 77W
CX daily 359
MH 5 weekly A332
KE 4 weekly 789
TG 4 weekly 359
EK daily 77W via KUL
QR 3 weekly 77W via BNE
CA 4 weekly 789
CZ 10 weekly 789
MU daily A332
CI 4 weekly A359 TPE non stop
PR 2 weekly A333 MNL non stop
HA 3 weekly A332
LA 3 weekly 789 SCL-AKL-SYD
TN 2 weekly 789


Will be interesting to see if SQ keep AKL as a359s once passenger flights resume fully? Both CHC/AKL seem to be both getting them currently.

MH has been using the a359 to AKL recently, hopefully it stays that way once we reopen.

Also would be interested to see if CI re adds the BNE stop next year. It used to be an great way to get to BNE for $400 in J.


I’m not sure what else they would send to CHC given it gets the long haul configured 359s, regional ones have done a couple of flights during Covid but not many pax so no issue.

AKL didn’t get the A350 before and I would think there are probably routes that could use the A350 economics more than AKL, some European routes mainly, though I’m not sure where they currently fly in Europe. I would see 77Ws to AKL.

MH we’re going to use the A359 to AKL a couple of years back, I think they said something along the lines of yields weren’t high enough or something, it stayed A333 before going to the A332, AKL is the second longest route for them after LHR which is the main A359 route, the A333 is a bit restricted on freight so the A332 is the best fit of what they have bar the older second hand J class seats.

CI said pre Covid AKL was difficult with utilisation given its more than a 24 hr rotation from TPE, they get good utilisation going via BNE which helps. Which way will they go now given Covid?
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4410
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:31 am

NPL8800 wrote:
Just some of my thoughts.....

I feel that all the airlines that previously served this country will return in time, likely over a rolling 12-24 month period

Not sure all - perhaps a majority though.

It'll be interesting to see whether some airlines will survive - for example, PR filed for bankruptcy in September.

It'll also be interesting to see if the post-pandemic landscape will open new opportunities for routes, as it has in Australia - for example, QF opening DEL.

ZK-NBT wrote:
CI said pre Covid AKL was difficult with utilisation given its more than a 24 hr rotation from TPE, they get good utilisation going via BNE which helps. Which way will they go now given Covid?

One-stop routes in the current landscape may not work as well as before, with complex testing and vaccine requirements and safety protocols involved. Perhaps this may push them to go non-stop.
 
NZ516
Posts: 989
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:00 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Here is some optimism for Air NZ will ramp up flying from AKL with domestic flights going up from 2 per day to CHC to 14 per day. WLG goes from 1 per day to 17 from Dec 6 when AKL is expected to be at 90%.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industri ... december-6


Adding to that from the 14 December (12+) need to be either fully jabbed or negative test within 72hours to fly NZ domesitcly .

[url]https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126926545/covid19-air-nz-to-make-full-vaccination-or-negative-test-compulsory-for-domestic-travel
[/url]

Good call by NZ.


Agree even Newstalk host Heather things it's a good move and the Government should copy Air NZ policy and use it for health workers, teachers etc.

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/hea ... -nzs-book/
 
NZ516
Posts: 989
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:27 pm

Now here is a really good interview with Greg Foran on RNZ Checkpoint. The juicy bits were the airline is putting back capacity in AKL domestic services as it is betting on the boarders coming down in Dec. The team is looking at new domestic routes out of Tauranga and Nelson not yet served. Presume these will be to Queenstown or to each other no mention of aircraft type or frequency. What they really need is a move to end all MIQ before international flying can resume. Hopefully this will happen by the end of the first quarter next year. Plus New York flights to come late next year.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programm ... nouncement
 
NZ516
Posts: 989
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 5:28 pm

Air Milford is going to trial scenic flights out of Invercargill.
The 2.5 hour route will take it over parts of Southland and Fiordland not seen by most people and can take 13 passengers in their Cessna Caravan.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinatio ... vercargill
 
NZ6
Posts: 2127
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:54 pm

Lots of talk about reopening over the last few days which is refreshing.

But FYI no body knows a date. Airlines can only work towards a range of scenarios.

NZ in December will see an increase in passengers even if the Auckland border remains up. However reassurance has been given that people will be able to travel for xmas. NZ's new policy gives more certainty around some of the rules.

As for the international border it's still guessing games.

Huge pressure is coming around MIQ especially for those coming into and remaining in AKL. I personally still expect some changes mid December if not sooner.

There's no hidden handshake saying 31 Jan is opening date. I help out an elderly resident across the road, her son in an inspector with the Police and he's told me first hand within the last week even the Police have no idea what's happening until it's announced. This includes alert level changes & borders. He went on to talk about the issues and challenges this presents so highly doubt it's a face.
 
Polo5959
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:18 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:51 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Now here is a really good interview with Greg Foran on RNZ Checkpoint. The juicy bits were the airline is putting back capacity in AKL domestic services as it is betting on the boarders coming down in Dec. The team is looking at new domestic routes out of Tauranga and Nelson not yet served. Presume these will be to Queenstown or to each other no mention of aircraft type or frequency. What they really need is a move to end all MIQ before international flying can resume. Hopefully this will happen by the end of the first quarter next year. Plus New York flights to come late next year.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programm ... nouncement


This an interesting one. The possibilities could be:

TRG-NSN
NSN-PMR
NSN-DUD
NSN-HLZ
TRG-PMR
TRG-NPE?

I don’t think we’ll see TRG-DUD/ZQN as NZ would need to use the 320s.
 
Megatop747-412
Posts: 320
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2000 1:59 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 2:41 am

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Kiwings wrote:
So if the international borders open in early 2021 to NZ passport holders/residents and I am hearing 31JAN could be the date, what airlines are going to restart what services and with what aircraft. Be interesting to see what markets bounce back quicker than others. Let's see who is the best forecaster ?



Hard to say I think but some of the smaller secondry Chinese carriers I wouldn’t see returning. Most others I would see returning with lower frequency smaller aircraft in some cases. I’ll give some rough guesstimates but that is all they are if we use Jan 31st as a date. Some haven’t stopped but have changed aircraft types etc. not expecting to see AA until Oct 2022, Or UA who have the PW 772 fleet still grounded currently until those are flying again.

SQ 10 weekly 77W
CX daily 359
MH 5 weekly A332
KE 4 weekly 789
TG 4 weekly 359
EK daily 77W via KUL
QR 3 weekly 77W via BNE
CA 4 weekly 789
CZ 10 weekly 789
MU daily A332
CI 4 weekly A359 TPE non stop
PR 2 weekly A333 MNL non stop
HA 3 weekly A332
LA 3 weekly 789 SCL-AKL-SYD
TN 2 weekly 789


Will be interesting to see if SQ keep AKL as a359s once passenger flights resume fully? Both CHC/AKL seem to be both getting them currently.

MH has been using the a359 to AKL recently, hopefully it stays that way once we reopen.

Also would be interested to see if CI re adds the BNE stop next year. It used to be an great way to get to BNE for $400 in J.


SQ have retired 4 of their 77W's - 9V-SWA, 9V-SWD-F, basically 4 of the older birds with the exception of 9V-SWB, which apparently had extensive repairs done after suffering an engine fire a couple of years ago so they are keeping that, and SQ never had 9V-SWC. Given that they are down by 4x 77Ws, and together with them continuing to receive new A350s (a new Long Haul A350 could be delivered before the end of 2021) there could be a chance that they could continue to use the A359's to AKL, although that fleet is beginning to be a little stretched. My guess is SQ could operate a mix of 77W and A359s to AKL, and not forgetting that they could maintain (or even increase) their frequencies to CHC using A359s as well.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 2004
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:32 am

Polo5959 wrote:
The possibilities could be:

TRG-NSN
NSN-PMR
NSN-DUD
NSN-HLZ
TRG-PMR
TRG-NPE?

I don’t think we’ll see TRG-DUD/ZQN as NZ would need to use the 320s.

My thoughts on these:

TRG-NSN - unlikely given HLZ-NSN (which must surely be a larger market) is not really even a thing with a 19-seater, except for Fri/Sun flights which are more of the nature of positioning flights for HLZ-PMR.

NSN-PMR - back to the future - I remember the old F27 route AKL-PMR-NSN-CHC. But given there's an existing operator on the route, and it's unlikely to be a 50-seater route, I doubt it.

NSN-DUD - could well be a starter

TRG-PMR - unlikely IMO given NZ withdrew from HLZ-PMR, which surely has bigger demand.

TRG-NPE - again unlikely IMO given HLZ doesn't have such a link.

Which brings us to the two routes you discounted on account of them being more likely A320 routes: TRG-ZQN and TRG-DUD. I wouldn't actually rule these out, even with a turboprop. Sure they'd be well north of two hours' flying time (maybe 2h 45m-ish) but that would still be quicker than connecting via AKL, WLG, or CHC.

As an aside, has anyone else noticed the increase in flying to North Island provincial centres from CHC in the forward timetables? I chose a random week in March and found

TRG-CHC 5x daily (up from 2-3x or thereabouts)
NPL-CHC 3x daily (previously 2x or thereabouts)
NPE-CHC 4x daily (up from 2-3x)
HLZ-CHC 5x daily (up from 4x)

At this rate, provincial flying is going to need the A220 (ducks for cover) before too long. Then we can also start thinking about AKL-CBR, AKL-NTL and CHC-ADL (ducks for cover again).
 
a7ala
Posts: 438
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:48 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Which brings us to the two routes you discounted on account of them being more likely A320 routes: TRG-ZQN and TRG-DUD. I wouldn't actually rule these out, even with a turboprop. Sure they'd be well north of two hours' flying time (maybe 2h 45m-ish) but that would still be quicker than connecting via AKL, WLG, or CHC.


Highly unlikely - seems a complete waste of an aircraft for 6 hours flying a small marginal route which can easily be connected via AKL, WLG or CHC. Im sure they have much better uses for aircraft - plenty of 1 hour sectors that could be flown almost 3 times return in the same amount of time.

DavidByrne wrote:
As an aside, has anyone else noticed the increase in flying to North Island provincial centres from CHC in the forward timetables? I chose a random week in March and found

TRG-CHC 5x daily (up from 2-3x or thereabouts)
NPL-CHC 3x daily (previously 2x or thereabouts)
NPE-CHC 4x daily (up from 2-3x)
HLZ-CHC 5x daily (up from 4x)

At this rate, provincial flying is going to need the A220 (ducks for cover) before too long. Then we can also start thinking about AKL-CBR, AKL-NTL and CHC-ADL (ducks for cover again).


Its not just a CHC thing - its across the whole domestic network. WLG is getting an even larger uplift in regional domestic travel with a 38% capacity increase on WLG-TRG, 37% WLG-ZQN, 35% on WLG-NPL/GIS and 30% on WLG-HLZ versus March 2019 (pre Covid). Infact WLG is seeing a 21% increase in regional capacity (excluding WLG/CHC-AKL and WLG-CHC) and CHC 9%.
 
Solent
Posts: 13
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 12:31 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:00 am

NZ could do a Sunrise to LHR.

Take off from AKL or LHR and use the best route East or West as equidistant.

Sent from my SM-G986B using Tapatalk
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4410
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:11 am

Polo5959 wrote:
Now here is a really good interview with Greg Foran on RNZ Checkpoint. The juicy bits were the airline is putting back capacity in AKL domestic services as it is betting on the boarders coming down in Dec. The team is looking at new domestic routes out of Tauranga and Nelson not yet served. Presume these will be to Queenstown or to each other no mention of aircraft type or frequency. What they really need is a move to end all MIQ before international flying can resume. Hopefully this will happen by the end of the first quarter next year. Plus New York flights to come late next year..

Perhaps KKE/WRE-TRG/HLZ/PMR - people may be put off transiting AKL (given the Covid situation), and WLG would involve back-tracking - at the same time, there'd be transit opportunities to CHC.

What about new regional routes ex-AKL or WLG? Even seasonal. I'm thinking to the likes of HKK.
 
a7ala
Posts: 438
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:19 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Polo5959 wrote:
Now here is a really good interview with Greg Foran on RNZ Checkpoint. The juicy bits were the airline is putting back capacity in AKL domestic services as it is betting on the boarders coming down in Dec. The team is looking at new domestic routes out of Tauranga and Nelson not yet served. Presume these will be to Queenstown or to each other no mention of aircraft type or frequency. What they really need is a move to end all MIQ before international flying can resume. Hopefully this will happen by the end of the first quarter next year. Plus New York flights to come late next year..

Perhaps KKE/WRE-TRG/HLZ/PMR - people may be put off transiting AKL (given the Covid situation), and WLG would involve back-tracking - at the same time, there'd be transit opportunities to CHC.

What about new regional routes ex-AKL or WLG? Even seasonal. I'm thinking to the likes of HKK.


Looking at the network, WLG-TUO could be reinstated - having all of TUO head north to connect south must be a pain, although I guess they might drive to ROT. WLG-HKK another option, athough pretty small and OK connectivity via CHC. WLG-WKA would be a real winner for an airline with the right aircraft to do it.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:39 am

Megatop747-412 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:


Hard to say I think but some of the smaller secondry Chinese carriers I wouldn’t see returning. Most others I would see returning with lower frequency smaller aircraft in some cases. I’ll give some rough guesstimates but that is all they are if we use Jan 31st as a date. Some haven’t stopped but have changed aircraft types etc. not expecting to see AA until Oct 2022, Or UA who have the PW 772 fleet still grounded currently until those are flying again.

SQ 10 weekly 77W
CX daily 359
MH 5 weekly A332
KE 4 weekly 789
TG 4 weekly 359
EK daily 77W via KUL
QR 3 weekly 77W via BNE
CA 4 weekly 789
CZ 10 weekly 789
MU daily A332
CI 4 weekly A359 TPE non stop
PR 2 weekly A333 MNL non stop
HA 3 weekly A332
LA 3 weekly 789 SCL-AKL-SYD
TN 2 weekly 789


Will be interesting to see if SQ keep AKL as a359s once passenger flights resume fully? Both CHC/AKL seem to be both getting them currently.

MH has been using the a359 to AKL recently, hopefully it stays that way once we reopen.

Also would be interested to see if CI re adds the BNE stop next year. It used to be an great way to get to BNE for $400 in J.


SQ have retired 4 of their 77W's - 9V-SWA, 9V-SWD-F, basically 4 of the older birds with the exception of 9V-SWB, which apparently had extensive repairs done after suffering an engine fire a couple of years ago so they are keeping that, and SQ never had 9V-SWC. Given that they are down by 4x 77Ws, and together with them continuing to receive new A350s (a new Long Haul A350 could be delivered before the end of 2021) there could be a chance that they could continue to use the A359's to AKL, although that fleet is beginning to be a little stretched. My guess is SQ could operate a mix of 77W and A359s to AKL, and not forgetting that they could maintain (or even increase) their frequencies to CHC using A359s as well.


They have also retired 7 A380s, both the 77W and A380 were used a lot within Asia which I think could go 787 regional A350 more to free up 77W A380 capacity.

My guess is that in the short medium term SQ replace the seasonal NZ CHC-SIN capacity where required while possibly AKL is 2 daily as opposed to 3 1x NZ 789, 1x SQ 77W, possibly an A380 in summer again. Their 359 fleet is quite stretched given it can operate the non stop LAX/SFO-SIN runs with some of the newer regular 359 fleet.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:39 am

Solent wrote:
NZ could do a Sunrise to LHR.

Take off from AKL or LHR and use the best route East or West as equidistant.

Sent from my SM-G986B using Tapatalk


With which sub fleet of aircraft?
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 2004
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:46 am

a7ala wrote:
Looking at the network, WLG-TUO could be reinstated - having all of TUO head north to connect south must be a pain, although I guess they might drive to ROT. WLG-HKK another option, athough pretty small and OK connectivity via CHC. WLG-WKA would be a real winner for an airline with the right aircraft to do it.

WLG-TUO - Sounds Air runs this route and offers just 18 seats a day. I can't see NZ making a go of it with a 50-seater.

WKG-HKK - can't see this without a very substantial tourist demand. HKK after all has a population of just 3,000-odd and even the CHC link must be in question without tourists.

WLG-WKA - agree - but the key is "the right aircraft", and this isn't NZ. Another way of looking at it would be "the right airport". The existing WKA isn't up for a DH3, as I understand (it's presumably not runway length?) and Tarras is some years away, if ever. NZ has indicated interest in an AKL-WKA link with an A320, but unless the existing WKA airport is expanded (which is unlikely in the short term with very strong local opposition and also legal issues associated with its ownership) then unfortunately I can't see AKL or WLG-WKA happening.
 
Megatop747-412
Posts: 320
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2000 1:59 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 7:44 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Megatop747-412 wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Will be interesting to see if SQ keep AKL as a359s once passenger flights resume fully? Both CHC/AKL seem to be both getting them currently.

MH has been using the a359 to AKL recently, hopefully it stays that way once we reopen.

Also would be interested to see if CI re adds the BNE stop next year. It used to be an great way to get to BNE for $400 in J.


SQ have retired 4 of their 77W's - 9V-SWA, 9V-SWD-F, basically 4 of the older birds with the exception of 9V-SWB, which apparently had extensive repairs done after suffering an engine fire a couple of years ago so they are keeping that, and SQ never had 9V-SWC. Given that they are down by 4x 77Ws, and together with them continuing to receive new A350s (a new Long Haul A350 could be delivered before the end of 2021) there could be a chance that they could continue to use the A359's to AKL, although that fleet is beginning to be a little stretched. My guess is SQ could operate a mix of 77W and A359s to AKL, and not forgetting that they could maintain (or even increase) their frequencies to CHC using A359s as well.


They have also retired 7 A380s, both the 77W and A380 were used a lot within Asia which I think could go 787 regional A350 more to free up 77W A380 capacity.

My guess is that in the short medium term SQ replace the seasonal NZ CHC-SIN capacity where required while possibly AKL is 2 daily as opposed to 3 1x NZ 789, 1x SQ 77W, possibly an A380 in summer again. Their 359 fleet is quite stretched given it can operate the non stop LAX/SFO-SIN runs with some of the newer regular 359 fleet.


Yeah that’s certainly true that SQ have retired 7 A380, although for the remaining 12 A380s that SQ will be bringing back into service they will be (or in the process of being done) refitted to the “Version 3” config with the latest cabin products for the A380 with a net increase in the number of seats across pretty much all 4 cabins with the exception of Suites class which will reduce from 12 to 6 seats. And yes agree that SQ would likely push for the 787s and A350s for regional flying, especially given the current situation and post pandemic recovery where cargo capacity is still expected to be very high, utilising say the 787s vs A380 makes sense since the 787 have good cargo capacity/uplift. I think the 787 is probably the only sub-fleet within SQ that is currently 100% utilised, and this is expected to continue post pandemic recovery.

Their A350 fleet is certainly very stretched - LAX non-stop (pre Covid-19) used to be operated by the A350 ULR sub-fleet given that is might be a bit of a stretch for the standard Long Haul configured A350 to make it that far, but during pandemic times, with lighter pax loads expected and the demand for cargo capacity they are using the standard Long Haul configured A350s for the route. My guess is once pax traffic picks up again the route could go back to the A350 ULR thus freeing up some of the standard Long Haul A350s for other routes.

Overall must say I agree that there is a chance of a mix of seeing A350, 77W and A380s being operated to AKL. The interesting thing would be to see how the SQ/NZ alliance will share this route, and whether would NZ return to flying to Singapore, especially AKL-SIN vv…
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 8:00 am

Megatop747-412 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Megatop747-412 wrote:

SQ have retired 4 of their 77W's - 9V-SWA, 9V-SWD-F, basically 4 of the older birds with the exception of 9V-SWB, which apparently had extensive repairs done after suffering an engine fire a couple of years ago so they are keeping that, and SQ never had 9V-SWC. Given that they are down by 4x 77Ws, and together with them continuing to receive new A350s (a new Long Haul A350 could be delivered before the end of 2021) there could be a chance that they could continue to use the A359's to AKL, although that fleet is beginning to be a little stretched. My guess is SQ could operate a mix of 77W and A359s to AKL, and not forgetting that they could maintain (or even increase) their frequencies to CHC using A359s as well.


They have also retired 7 A380s, both the 77W and A380 were used a lot within Asia which I think could go 787 regional A350 more to free up 77W A380 capacity.

My guess is that in the short medium term SQ replace the seasonal NZ CHC-SIN capacity where required while possibly AKL is 2 daily as opposed to 3 1x NZ 789, 1x SQ 77W, possibly an A380 in summer again. Their 359 fleet is quite stretched given it can operate the non stop LAX/SFO-SIN runs with some of the newer regular 359 fleet.


Yeah that’s certainly true that SQ have retired 7 A380, although for the remaining 12 A380s that SQ will be bringing back into service they will be (or in the process of being done) refitted to the “Version 3” config with the latest cabin products for the A380 with a net increase in the number of seats across pretty much all 4 cabins with the exception of Suites class which will reduce from 12 to 6 seats. And yes agree that SQ would likely push for the 787s and A350s for regional flying, especially given the current situation and post pandemic recovery where cargo capacity is still expected to be very high, utilising say the 787s vs A380 makes sense since the 787 have good cargo capacity/uplift. I think the 787 is probably the only sub-fleet within SQ that is currently 100% utilised, and this is expected to continue post pandemic recovery.

Their A350 fleet is certainly very stretched - LAX non-stop (pre Covid-19) used to be operated by the A350 ULR sub-fleet given that is might be a bit of a stretch for the standard Long Haul configured A350 to make it that far, but during pandemic times, with lighter pax loads expected and the demand for cargo capacity they are using the standard Long Haul configured A350s for the route. My guess is once pax traffic picks up again the route could go back to the A350 ULR thus freeing up some of the standard Long Haul A350s for other routes.

Overall must say I agree that there is a chance of a mix of seeing A350, 77W and A380s being operated to AKL. The interesting thing would be to see how the SQ/NZ alliance will share this route, and whether would NZ return to flying to Singapore, especially AKL-SIN vv…


I would think SQ are most of their A350 fleet bar some of the ULH ones. SFO was definitely a standard A359 but the newer frames which are a bit more capable that the earlier ones. The Australian routes get the regional A350s and some 787s with SYD getting a 77W on 1 flight now to.

As for the NZ/SQ alliance I do wonder if both carriers are expected to fly the route, NZ/CX is the same, HKG barely seems worth bothering for NZ for now, maybe freight is good? NZ/UA doesn’t always have UA capacity, though they did go back to year round. These carriers have much larger fleets than NZ and could offer more capacity while NZ can spread its fleet around to the other destinations.
 
Polo5959
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:18 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Wed Nov 10, 2021 7:32 pm

a7ala wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Which brings us to the two routes you discounted on account of them being more likely A320 routes: TRG-ZQN and TRG-DUD. I wouldn't actually rule these out, even with a turboprop. Sure they'd be well north of two hours' flying time (maybe 2h 45m-ish) but that would still be quicker than connecting via AKL, WLG, or CHC.


Highly unlikely - seems a complete waste of an aircraft for 6 hours flying a small marginal route which can easily be connected via AKL, WLG or CHC. Im sure they have much better uses for aircraft - plenty of 1 hour sectors that could be flown almost 3 times return in the same amount of time.

DavidByrne wrote:
As an aside, has anyone else noticed the increase in flying to North Island provincial centres from CHC in the forward timetables? I chose a random week in March and found

TRG-CHC 5x daily (up from 2-3x or thereabouts)
NPL-CHC 3x daily (previously 2x or thereabouts)
NPE-CHC 4x daily (up from 2-3x)
HLZ-CHC 5x daily (up from 4x)

At this rate, provincial flying is going to need the A220 (ducks for cover) before too long. Then we can also start thinking about AKL-CBR, AKL-NTL and CHC-ADL (ducks for cover again).


Its not just a CHC thing - its across the whole domestic network. WLG is getting an even larger uplift in regional domestic travel with a 38% capacity increase on WLG-TRG, 37% WLG-ZQN, 35% on WLG-NPL/GIS and 30% on WLG-HLZ versus March 2019 (pre Covid). Infact WLG is seeing a 21% increase in regional capacity (excluding WLG/CHC-AKL and WLG-CHC) and CHC 9%.


Air NZ has mentioned in 2021 there has been a huge increase in domestic leisure traffic. Perhaps Air NZ could boost flights in NSN, TRG, HLZ during peak Thursday, Friday and Sunday afternoons. This would help cater for the increased leisure demand over the weekends.

Another new route could be NSN-ZQN? I’m a strong believer that WRE/KKE - WLG will become permanent too.
 
NZ516
Posts: 989
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:03 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Polo5959 wrote:
The possibilities could be:

TRG-NSN
NSN-PMR
NSN-DUD
NSN-HLZ
TRG-PMR
TRG-NPE?

I don’t think we’ll see TRG-DUD/ZQN as NZ would need to use the 320s.

My thoughts on these:

TRG-NSN - unlikely given HLZ-NSN (which must surely be a larger market) is not really even a thing with a 19-seater, except for Fri/Sun flights which are more of the nature of positioning flights for HLZ-PMR.

NSN-PMR - back to the future - I remember the old F27 route AKL-PMR-NSN-CHC. But given there's an existing operator on the route, and it's unlikely to be a 50-seater route, I doubt it.

NSN-DUD - could well be a starter

TRG-PMR - unlikely IMO given NZ withdrew from HLZ-PMR, which surely has bigger demand.

TRG-NPE - again unlikely IMO given HLZ doesn't have such a link.

Which brings us to the two routes you discounted on account of them being more likely A320 routes: TRG-ZQN and TRG-DUD. I wouldn't actually rule these out, even with a turboprop. Sure they'd be well north of two hours' flying time (maybe 2h 45m-ish) but that would still be quicker than connecting via AKL, WLG, or CHC.

As an aside, has anyone else noticed the increase in flying to North Island provincial centres from CHC in the forward timetables? I chose a random week in March and found

TRG-CHC 5x daily (up from 2-3x or thereabouts)
NPL-CHC 3x daily (previously 2x or thereabouts)
NPE-CHC 4x daily (up from 2-3x)
HLZ-CHC 5x daily (up from 4x)

At this rate, provincial flying is going to need the A220 (ducks for cover) before too long. Then we can also start thinking about AKL-CBR, AKL-NTL and CHC-ADL (ducks for cover again).


Those flights for next march ex CHC were like the old schedule from two years ago.
CHC to NPL at 3 Dash 8s per day and CHC to HLZ 5 daily ATRs the same as back then.
So the schedule will get updated eventually when they can get the go ahead from the Government.
 
NZ1Super
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:26 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:29 am

Anyone know why there's a Jetstar 787 heading to Auckland today? [img]
Screen%20Shot%202021-11-11%20at%204.19.10%20PM.png
[/img]
 
NZ516
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Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:37 am

Polo5959 wrote:
a7ala wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Which brings us to the two routes you discounted on account of them being more likely A320 routes: TRG-ZQN and TRG-DUD. I wouldn't actually rule these out, even with a turboprop. Sure they'd be well north of two hours' flying time (maybe 2h 45m-ish) but that would still be quicker than connecting via AKL, WLG, or CHC.


Highly unlikely - seems a complete waste of an aircraft for 6 hours flying a small marginal route which can easily be connected via AKL, WLG or CHC. Im sure they have much better uses for aircraft - plenty of 1 hour sectors that could be flown almost 3 times return in the same amount of time.

DavidByrne wrote:
As an aside, has anyone else noticed the increase in flying to North Island provincial centres from CHC in the forward timetables? I chose a random week in March and found

TRG-CHC 5x daily (up from 2-3x or thereabouts)
NPL-CHC 3x daily (previously 2x or thereabouts)
NPE-CHC 4x daily (up from 2-3x)
HLZ-CHC 5x daily (up from 4x)

At this rate, provincial flying is going to need the A220 (ducks for cover) before too long. Then we can also start thinking about AKL-CBR, AKL-NTL and CHC-ADL (ducks for cover again).


Its not just a CHC thing - its across the whole domestic network. WLG is getting an even larger uplift in regional domestic travel with a 38% capacity increase on WLG-TRG, 37% WLG-ZQN, 35% on WLG-NPL/GIS and 30% on WLG-HLZ versus March 2019 (pre Covid). Infact WLG is seeing a 21% increase in regional capacity (excluding WLG/CHC-AKL and WLG-CHC) and CHC 9%.


Air NZ has mentioned in 2021 there has been a huge increase in domestic leisure traffic. Perhaps Air NZ could boost flights in NSN, TRG, HLZ during peak Thursday, Friday and Sunday afternoons. This would help cater for the increased leisure demand over the weekends.

Another new route could be NSN-ZQN? I’m a strong believer that WRE/KKE - WLG will become permanent too.


I reckon it be a prime Q300 route from NSN to ZQN. The fourth busiest and sixth busiest airports in the country. There is a couple yet to return to service ZKNEG and another one. When they are ready to fly again they could launch the new route.
 
ZK-NBT
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Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:23 am

NZ1Super wrote:
Anyone know why there's a Jetstar 787 heading to Auckland today? [img]Screen%20Shot%202021-11-11%20at%204.19.10%20PM.png[/img]


They have been coming most days this week, getting crew hours up by replacing QF freight runs to MEL.
 
User avatar
LamboAston
Posts: 680
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:56 am

NZ516 wrote:
Polo5959 wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Highly unlikely - seems a complete waste of an aircraft for 6 hours flying a small marginal route which can easily be connected via AKL, WLG or CHC. Im sure they have much better uses for aircraft - plenty of 1 hour sectors that could be flown almost 3 times return in the same amount of time.



Its not just a CHC thing - its across the whole domestic network. WLG is getting an even larger uplift in regional domestic travel with a 38% capacity increase on WLG-TRG, 37% WLG-ZQN, 35% on WLG-NPL/GIS and 30% on WLG-HLZ versus March 2019 (pre Covid). Infact WLG is seeing a 21% increase in regional capacity (excluding WLG/CHC-AKL and WLG-CHC) and CHC 9%.


Air NZ has mentioned in 2021 there has been a huge increase in domestic leisure traffic. Perhaps Air NZ could boost flights in NSN, TRG, HLZ during peak Thursday, Friday and Sunday afternoons. This would help cater for the increased leisure demand over the weekends.

Another new route could be NSN-ZQN? I’m a strong believer that WRE/KKE - WLG will become permanent too.


I reckon it be a prime Q300 route from NSN to ZQN. The fourth busiest and sixth busiest airports in the country. There is a couple yet to return to service ZKNEG and another one. When they are ready to fly again they could launch the new route.

Q300 don't have the RNP capability to be able to fly an approach into Queenstown
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:00 am

LamboAston wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Polo5959 wrote:

Air NZ has mentioned in 2021 there has been a huge increase in domestic leisure traffic. Perhaps Air NZ could boost flights in NSN, TRG, HLZ during peak Thursday, Friday and Sunday afternoons. This would help cater for the increased leisure demand over the weekends.

Another new route could be NSN-ZQN? I’m a strong believer that WRE/KKE - WLG will become permanent too.


I reckon it be a prime Q300 route from NSN to ZQN. The fourth busiest and sixth busiest airports in the country. There is a couple yet to return to service ZKNEG and another one. When they are ready to fly again they could launch the new route.

Q300 don't have the RNP capability to be able to fly an approach into Queenstown


Ok thanks didn't realize they couldn't land in ZQN.
 
anstar
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:04 am

Polo5959 wrote:

Air NZ has mentioned in 2021 there has been a huge increase in domestic leisure traffic. Perhaps Air NZ could boost flights in NSN, TRG, HLZ during peak Thursday, Friday and Sunday afternoons. This would help cater for the increased leisure demand over the weekends.

Another new route could be NSN-ZQN? I’m a strong believer that WRE/KKE - WLG will become permanent too.


Will that demand still be there thought when people can leave the country instead?
 
zkncj
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:13 pm

NZ516 wrote:
LamboAston wrote:
NZ516 wrote:

I reckon it be a prime Q300 route from NSN to ZQN. The fourth busiest and sixth busiest airports in the country. There is a couple yet to return to service ZKNEG and another one. When they are ready to fly again they could launch the new route.

Q300 don't have the RNP capability to be able to fly an approach into Queenstown


Ok thanks didn't realize they couldn't land in ZQN.


Can land in ZQN, and have been there in the past on charters.

Just they can’t operate into ZQN regularly without weather issues. The approach weather in ZQN change very rapidly, eg you start approaching from the North, but the wind can change half way through the approach and your end up having to go around and land from the South.

Also ZQN required additional pilot training, so simpler for them to keep it just to having two pools of pilots that have there ZQN approval.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:08 pm

Anyone else in the Grabaseat Gotta Getaway pilot program? And heard anything getting extensions?

Being AKL based, have effectively lost 4months use of the membership, due to level 3/4.
 
NZ516
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Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Fri Nov 12, 2021 12:17 pm

With no plans to open up NZ to the outside world and no plan to end MIQ. The international connections are at risk. International Airlines will not return to New Zealand as they have already committed using their aircraft now. This is from the current boss of Auckland Airport. Which paints a bleak picture for the future for international air travel to NZ.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/30045150 ... ld-at-risk
 
NZ516
Posts: 989
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Fri Nov 12, 2021 12:47 pm

a7ala wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Which brings us to the two routes you discounted on account of them being more likely A320 routes: TRG-ZQN and TRG-DUD. I wouldn't actually rule these out, even with a turboprop. Sure they'd be well north of two hours' flying time (maybe 2h 45m-ish) but that would still be quicker than connecting via AKL, WLG, or CHC.


Highly unlikely - seems a complete waste of an aircraft for 6 hours flying a small marginal route which can easily be connected via AKL, WLG or CHC. Im sure they have much better uses for aircraft - plenty of 1 hour sectors that could be flown almost 3 times return in the same amount of time.

DavidByrne wrote:
As an aside, has anyone else noticed the increase in flying to North Island provincial centres from CHC in the forward timetables? I chose a random week in March and found

TRG-CHC 5x daily (up from 2-3x or thereabouts)
NPL-CHC 3x daily (previously 2x or thereabouts)
NPE-CHC 4x daily (up from 2-3x)
HLZ-CHC 5x daily (up from 4x)

At this rate, provincial flying is going to need the A220 (ducks for cover) before too long. Then we can also start thinking about AKL-CBR, AKL-NTL and CHC-ADL (ducks for cover again).


Its not just a CHC thing - its across the whole domestic network. WLG is getting an even larger uplift in regional domestic travel with a 38% capacity increase on WLG-TRG, 37% WLG-ZQN, 35% on WLG-NPL/GIS and 30% on WLG-HLZ versus March 2019 (pre Covid). Infact WLG is seeing a 21% increase in regional capacity (excluding WLG/CHC-AKL and WLG-CHC) and CHC 9%.


Well that is huge capacity increase on those routes out of WLG. Another 320 flying daily WLG ZQN most likely for a 35% increase on that route as you say. That will take the route to 4 A320 flights a day amazing!
Plus plenty more daily WLG turboprop services at a 21% regional growth. However CHC is not getting so much love at just 9% extra flights.
How much extra flights will AKL see will be interesting to see. Perhaps the WLG to WRE & KKE will be permanent routes and the AKL flights will be reduced to the Northland airports.
 
GW54
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 3:05 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:57 pm

NZ516 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Can anyone tell us how many 77Ws NZ still has on the books? It’s not just the three parked in Auckland, presumably. And surely they would want more than three to maintain a viable fleet if they decide to bring them back into service.


I read somewhere that 6 of the 77W fleet will come back, so not sure which one is not might be the oldest ZKOKM.


Seem to recall it will be OKR or OKS. I recall reading somewhere it was OKR which was leased and from memory hadn't been upgraded with wifi.
 
GW54
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 3:05 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Fri Nov 12, 2021 9:03 pm

NZ516 wrote:
a7ala wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Which brings us to the two routes you discounted on account of them being more likely A320 routes: TRG-ZQN and TRG-DUD. I wouldn't actually rule these out, even with a turboprop. Sure they'd be well north of two hours' flying time (maybe 2h 45m-ish) but that would still be quicker than connecting via AKL, WLG, or CHC.


Highly unlikely - seems a complete waste of an aircraft for 6 hours flying a small marginal route which can easily be connected via AKL, WLG or CHC. Im sure they have much better uses for aircraft - plenty of 1 hour sectors that could be flown almost 3 times return in the same amount of time.

DavidByrne wrote:
As an aside, has anyone else noticed the increase in flying to North Island provincial centres from CHC in the forward timetables? I chose a random week in March and found

TRG-CHC 5x daily (up from 2-3x or thereabouts)
NPL-CHC 3x daily (previously 2x or thereabouts)
NPE-CHC 4x daily (up from 2-3x)
HLZ-CHC 5x daily (up from 4x)

At this rate, provincial flying is going to need the A220 (ducks for cover) before too long. Then we can also start thinking about AKL-CBR, AKL-NTL and CHC-ADL (ducks for cover again).


Its not just a CHC thing - its across the whole domestic network. WLG is getting an even larger uplift in regional domestic travel with a 38% capacity increase on WLG-TRG, 37% WLG-ZQN, 35% on WLG-NPL/GIS and 30% on WLG-HLZ versus March 2019 (pre Covid). Infact WLG is seeing a 21% increase in regional capacity (excluding WLG/CHC-AKL and WLG-CHC) and CHC 9%.


Well that is huge capacity increase on those routes out of WLG. Another 320 flying daily WLG ZQN most likely for a 35% increase on that route as you say. That will take the route to 4 A320 flights a day amazing!
Plus plenty more daily WLG turboprop services at a 21% regional growth. However CHC is not getting so much love at just 9% extra flights.
How much extra flights will AKL see will be interesting to see. Perhaps the WLG to WRE & KKE will be permanent routes and the AKL flights will be reduced to the Northland airports.


Passengers ex WRE and KKE loving the direct services and noy having to transit Auckland. The fact that WLG-KKE return is double daily shows just how good this move has been.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 2004
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:53 pm

Thinking about the tremendous capacity growth on TRG-CHC: any further growth could conceivably make it a possible A320 route, and if the infrastructure was in place, then TRG-ZQN could well be on NZ's radar, given there's an unidentified new destination from TRG under study.
 
User avatar
VirginFlyer
Posts: 5756
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2000 12:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:05 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Thinking about the tremendous capacity growth on TRG-CHC: any further growth could conceivably make it a possible A320 route, and if the infrastructure was in place, then TRG-ZQN could well be on NZ's radar, given there's an unidentified new destination from TRG under study.

Regional screening (something which for some time has seemed to be on the cards at some point in the indeterminate future) would have an interesting impact here. While the expense would imperil some more marginal routes, for routes where the lack of security is a barrier to shifting from turboprop under 90 seats to jet, the requirement to have security in place could then make it easier to justify deploying a jet on those routes.

V/F
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:07 am

GW54 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Can anyone tell us how many 77Ws NZ still has on the books? It’s not just the three parked in Auckland, presumably. And surely they would want more than three to maintain a viable fleet if they decide to bring them back into service.


I read somewhere that 6 of the 77W fleet will come back, so not sure which one is not might be the oldest ZKOKM.


Seem to recall it will be OKR or OKS. I recall reading somewhere it was OKR which was leased and from memory hadn't been upgraded with wifi.


Those 2 are both leased, from memory 12 years from 2014 with an early expiry option in 2020, I’m surprised they didn’t return both of them, the third leased 77W is OKO which is in AKL, not sure but it’s a 2011 delivery and a 12 year lease is common, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was OKO to be returned, guessing here though really. Does OKO have Wifi? I think there are several 77Ws that don’t have wifi isn’t there?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:17 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Thinking about the tremendous capacity growth on TRG-CHC: any further growth could conceivably make it a possible A320 route, and if the infrastructure was in place, then TRG-ZQN could well be on NZ's radar, given there's an unidentified new destination from TRG under study.

Regional screening (something which for some time has seemed to be on the cards at some point in the indeterminate future) would have an interesting impact here. While the expense would imperil some more marginal routes, for routes where the lack of security is a barrier to shifting from turboprop under 90 seats to jet, the requirement to have security in place could then make it easier to justify deploying a jet on those routes.

V/F


I recall a decade or so ago it must be that NZ looked at bringing the then 733s back into some regions. This didn’t happen, was it to do with the ATR 72-600 proving so efficient? And I would also guess the ATR has allowed significant frequency increase.

I’m not really sure where domestic A320s would go, AKL-NSN is obvious IMO except NSN can’t handle a jet due to the runway being to short.

TGA-ZQN maybe one of the more sensible new regional routes I have heard. A daily ATR I would guess. Even then it’s still easy enough to connect through CHC but TGA is growing quickly.
 
zkncj
Posts: 4504
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:19 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Thinking about the tremendous capacity growth on TRG-CHC: any further growth could conceivably make it a possible A320 route, and if the infrastructure was in place, then TRG-ZQN could well be on NZ's radar, given there's an unidentified new destination from TRG under study.

Regional screening (something which for some time has seemed to be on the cards at some point in the indeterminate future) would have an interesting impact here. While the expense would imperil some more marginal routes, for routes where the lack of security is a barrier to shifting from turboprop under 90 seats to jet, the requirement to have security in place could then make it easier to justify deploying a jet on those routes.

V/F


It almost need to be in two stages, eg flights under 90passengers, but an airport that has more XX passengers per week are required to have AVSEC.

Places like NSN,PMR,NPE,TRG all have enough daily flights to make AVSEC faculties worth it.


TRG-ZQN on an ATR would seem like an very painful experience.

Another option could NZ be looking todo an wet lease agreement with Alliance, like QF/VA are doing with Alliance.

Alliance has allot of secondhand e190s arriving, QF Link seems to be very interested in wet lease to expand and open up secondary routes.

Alliance could operate domestically in New Zealand, on there Australian AOC.

Could be an interesting lower risk venture, into the secondary route market with an smaller jet.

The e190s could be an good fit for, TRG-WLG,CHC,ZQN etc
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8417
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:40 am

NZ516 wrote:
With no plans to open up NZ to the outside world and no plan to end MIQ. The international connections are at risk. International Airlines will not return to New Zealand as they have already committed using their aircraft now. This is from the current boss of Auckland Airport. Which paints a bleak picture for the future for international air travel to NZ.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/30045150 ... ld-at-risk


The biggest problem is really the lack of clarity, who knows what the government are thinking. Personally there are plans to end MIQ, it seems an absolute shambles now and this is the biggest problem, again a complete lack of clarity, there must be some plan but I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t.

But you have to take it for what it is in the sense that most airlines will eventually return, some won’t and New Zealand as a country was starting to target the higher spending tourist. As was NZ as an airline hence the plan to still go to EWR and make it easier for those on the east coast to get here.

I wouldn’t say the outlook is bleak that is sensationalism which the media want you to hear, the world is changing. I’ve always said NW22/23 atleast for the likes of AA to return, personally not convinced you will see DFW-AKL then but certainly LAX-AKL and hopefully LAX-CHC.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4682
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2021

Sat Nov 13, 2021 1:26 am

zkncj wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Thinking about the tremendous capacity growth on TRG-CHC: any further growth could conceivably make it a possible A320 route, and if the infrastructure was in place, then TRG-ZQN could well be on NZ's radar, given there's an unidentified new destination from TRG under study.

Regional screening (something which for some time has seemed to be on the cards at some point in the indeterminate future) would have an interesting impact here. While the expense would imperil some more marginal routes, for routes where the lack of security is a barrier to shifting from turboprop under 90 seats to jet, the requirement to have security in place could then make it easier to justify deploying a jet on those routes.

V/F


It almost need to be in two stages, eg flights under 90passengers, but an airport that has more XX passengers per week are required to have AVSEC.

Places like NSN,PMR,NPE,TRG all have enough daily flights to make AVSEC faculties worth it.


TRG-ZQN on an ATR would seem like an very painful experience.

Another option could NZ be looking todo an wet lease agreement with Alliance, like QF/VA are doing with Alliance.

Alliance has allot of secondhand e190s arriving, QF Link seems to be very interested in wet lease to expand and open up secondary routes.

Alliance could operate domestically in New Zealand, on there Australian AOC.

Could be an interesting lower risk venture, into the secondary route market with an smaller jet.

The e190s could be an good fit for, TRG-WLG,CHC,ZQN etc

The problem is passengers mixing at transit airports too.
Could be solved in theory by having those passengers exit the aircraft so that they get screened again before their next flight.

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