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Avtur
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:35 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
keesje wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I’m struggling to figure out what single pilot A350 operations means. My understanding is that Cathay Pacific is working with Airbus to allow only one pilot in the flight deck during cruise so that they don’t need to fly with augmented crews for long flights. Whether Airbus can convince the regulators that 8+ hour flights are acceptable with only two pilots on the plane is a mystery to me. Anyone know if any regulatory authority will actually buy off on the concept?

Is it actually feasible or is it marketing bluster?


I think the challenge is to convince the regulator a new design / interface / communications can make a flight safer, despite 1 pilot in the cockpit seat. From what I read it would include cockpit instrument modifications, enhanced crew monitoring (both automated & ground), crew rests, lav's positioned so that a second crew member can be warned & back in his seat at short notice if required. In practice e.g. with one pilot in the lavatory while the other has a heart attack, both would be noticed, as well as ATC.

Compared to 25 years ago, we already saw autoland, brake to vacate, emergency autoland (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSMPduA0vH8), and Autonomous Taxi, Take-Off and Landing (ATTOL). https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/pres ... ight-tests .

So the possibilities to convince authorities reserve crew on board can be reduced, seem to be growing. Airbus and airlines are trying to certify this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXj3NfEIWfA


If they want this to rollout without too much pain then they need to make sure that various pilot unions are properly involved and have an actual say. Without pilot buy-in trying to roll such a thing out will take decades longer. I'd be totally ok doing a SIN-LHR flight with only one pilot in the cockpit during cruise. But ONLY if the pilots were happy with the implementation.

I could even see it turn into something like ETOPS/EROPS where an airline has to meet extra requirements to be approved to operate flights in such a form.


Not that I suspect they would have say in the matter, but I’m sure many members of the public that remember what happened with a certain Germanwings A320 wouldn’t be great fans of single pilot operation……..!
 
JohanTally
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:46 am

Avtur wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
keesje wrote:

I think the challenge is to convince the regulator a new design / interface / communications can make a flight safer, despite 1 pilot in the cockpit seat. From what I read it would include cockpit instrument modifications, enhanced crew monitoring (both automated & ground), crew rests, lav's positioned so that a second crew member can be warned & back in his seat at short notice if required. In practice e.g. with one pilot in the lavatory while the other has a heart attack, both would be noticed, as well as ATC.

Compared to 25 years ago, we already saw autoland, brake to vacate, emergency autoland (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSMPduA0vH8), and Autonomous Taxi, Take-Off and Landing (ATTOL). https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/pres ... ight-tests .

So the possibilities to convince authorities reserve crew on board can be reduced, seem to be growing. Airbus and airlines are trying to certify this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXj3NfEIWfA


If they want this to rollout without too much pain then they need to make sure that various pilot unions are properly involved and have an actual say. Without pilot buy-in trying to roll such a thing out will take decades longer. I'd be totally ok doing a SIN-LHR flight with only one pilot in the cockpit during cruise. But ONLY if the pilots were happy with the implementation.

I could even see it turn into something like ETOPS/EROPS where an airline has to meet extra requirements to be approved to operate flights in such a form.


Not that I suspect they would have say in the matter, but I’m sure many members of the public that remember what happened with a certain Germanwings A320 wouldn’t be great fans of single pilot operation……..!

SilkAir, EgyptAir, LAM Mozambique also. I feel like between fuel and maintenance costs the pilots salary is a small piece of the pie. Is this posturing to try to get concessions from pilots?
 
SteelChair
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:40 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
I’m struggling to figure out what single pilot A350 operations means. My understanding is that Cathay Pacific is working with Airbus to allow only one pilot in the flight deck during cruise so that they don’t need to fly with augmented crews for long flights. Whether Airbus can convince the regulators that 8+ hour flights are acceptable with only two pilots on the plane is a mystery to me. Anyone know if any regulatory authority will actually buy off on the concept?

Is it actually feasible or is it marketing bluster?


In the US, FAR 117 already pushed the 8 hrs to 9 (for the 3rd pilot) and the 12 hrs to 13 (for the 4th pilot). Organized labor contracts have not been amended though, so airlines can't take advantage of this. I'm sure it'll be for sale in a future negotiation.

The trend towards reduced manning in the future is clear. There were studies 20-25 years ago (sorry no link) about how to keep the human engaged, since she has so little to do during cruise flight.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:41 am

keesje wrote:
It seems Airbus is not sitting on their hands on the A350 it launched 15 years ago. Continued investment seems the road ahead despite the production rate only slowly recovering to 60-75 per year and a backlog of ~440. A slowly evolving mid life upgrade it seems~to meet new/ changed market requirements.

Cockpit
Programs are ongoing with airlines and authorities to enable reduced crew (single pilot) during stages of flight. Communication systems, cockpits, crew rests and even lavatories would be adjusted to ensure enhanced monitoring and awareness is created for all involved. https://www.flyingmag.com/story/news/ca ... ong-hauls/

Engines
Following contract extension with RR, new engine technology matures, new fan technology, gearboxes and materials being tested. https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press ... ecord.aspx

Cabin
New cabin technologies which could be featured in the future in all Airspace cabins, are tested on a A350 for development and certification purposes. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/news ... t-aircraft

New derivatives
Freighter. Airbus is actively promoting a A350-950F freighter variant, a 100t~, the first all composite freighter I guess. EIS is foreseen in 2025 and we might hear more next week in Dubai. https://www.flightglobal.com/programmes ... 81.article

Capacity. Over the years Airbus looked at stretching the A350, to a 400 seat 777-9 competitor. This development was shelved in recent years, with other priorities prevailing. But would be restarted if demand recovers for large widebodies in a few years. Meanwhile capacity improvement programs are commencing (new galleys, lav's) https://www.executivetraveller.com/airb ... -a350-2000

Payload-Range Demand for additional payload-range seems present in Qantas' upcoming Sunrise A350 order. A350 would connect Australia East Coast to US East coast and Europe. A higher A350 MTOW would enable enhanced capacity, payload, range or a combination. https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

Image
source: keesje

It seems in the second half of this decade we slowly see an A350 Next Gen production standard evolving from all ongoing developments, consolidating marketshare in the central 300-350 seat long haul segment. Still many A330s, A340s and 777s will come up for replacement this decade and worldwide government show a reduced flexibility towards aircraft emissions.


In reading through this list, my first thought was, "this is what industry leadership looks like."
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:44 pm

According to Leeham, who had interviews with Airbus executives, the A350F will have a 109t payload, more than expected by most.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/11/airbu ... /#comments
 
Opus99
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 12, 2021 6:39 am

keesje wrote:
According to Leeham, who had interviews with Airbus executives, the A350F will have a 109t payload, more than expected by most.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/11/11/airbu ... /#comments

Reuters said this 3 months ago. I don’t why you guys were using 90 something tonnes
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 12, 2021 6:57 am

If I understand the article correctly, the freighter is based on the 1000, minus 5 frames ahead of the wing.

So is this an A350-1000F or is it an A350-950F?

Cheers.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:15 am

The F is stated to have 319T MTOW, which suggests the Sunrise frames will be 319 also
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:25 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
If I understand the article correctly, the freighter is based on the 1000, minus 5 frames ahead of the wing.

So is this an A350-1000F or is it an A350-950F?

Cheers.

It seems just A350F
Image
airbus com
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:59 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
If I understand the article correctly, the freighter is based on the 1000, minus 5 frames ahead of the wing.

So is this an A350-1000F or is it an A350-950F?

Cheers.


I’m surprised that they would remove frames from in front of the wing. Wouldn’t that put it at risk for tail tipping?

Image

https://theloadstar.com/look-dhl-planes-nose-parked/
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Sat Nov 13, 2021 1:05 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
If I understand the article correctly, the freighter is based on the 1000, minus 5 frames ahead of the wing.

So is this an A350-1000F or is it an A350-950F?

Cheers.


I’m surprised that they would remove frames from in front of the wing. Wouldn’t that put it at risk for tail tipping?

Image

https://theloadstar.com/look-dhl-planes-nose-parked/

No, because the cargo door is behind the wing so the cargo is loaded front to back (and obviously unloaded back to front) so there is counterweight from the cargo up front during loading/unloading. The first pallet/container loaded would have to be super heavy to get the plane to tip. Less risk of tail tipping is an advantage of having the cargo door in the back like in the 777F and A350F. It’s actually the primary reason why the door is back there.
 
S0Y
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Sat Nov 13, 2021 4:06 am

Taxi645 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
Zoomed in on RR itself I would agree. If we zoom out a bit, the perspective changes. The world won't wait for RR for ever. As said, SAF and taxation will dramatically change aviation fuel cost. Yes, SFC improvements have become increasingly difficult to attain, but also, ROI on fuel efficiency improvements will improve. The competitive advantage of efficient designs will increase and conversely, less efficient design will stall in sales more quickly.

That's the economic pressure. Then there is the politic pressure. Changes are demanded from every industry, just carry-on doing what everyone is doing is not an option. Not updating (the efficiency of) the A350 just because a engine manufacturers has financial difficulty and likes to improve it's financial situation by underinvesting from the outside will be viewed as a micro-argument. Outside the aviation cosmos there will be little tolerance for it.

No need to zoom out, Airbus has committed itself to RR exclusively on the A350 for the next decade.

RR isn't under investing in the technology, they're developing it to the demonstrator level, with no risk of anyone else bumping the off the A350 for the next decade.


There is a need to zoom out. Even a legal contract can become obsolete if the context in which it was created and the world to which it applies does not exist anymore in the same form.

Lot's of car manufacturers might have lot's of legal contracts whith combustion engine related suppliers. If they're not selling or producng meaningful numbers of combustion engjnes cars in a few years than those contracts have been outdated by a new reality.

In aviation, because of weight is everything, change will be more graduate, but still things won't be the same as 5 years ago.


Exactly, I think we are heading towards an entirely new paradigm and those that cannot adapt will be left behind. Very foolhardy to think the last 50yrs will match the next . Increasingly fossil fuel burn will get more and more expensive
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:21 am

This suggests Etihad A3510s to be delivered, beyond the first 5 already delivered, will have thinned sidewalls and accommodate 10-abreast economy seating. I would not have put Etihad in the 10-abreast camp, but who knows?

Other airlines with a less aspirational marketing image may well bite on this, in which case it will confer a significant advantage to Airbus in future campaigns against both 787 and 777X.

"the second batch of them after the first five are very slightly wider on the airframe, so in economy we have an extra one seat per row, so it goes up to 404 seats,” said the executive"

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2021/11/1 ... 3s-happen/
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:33 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
This suggests Etihad A3510s to be delivered, beyond the first 5 already delivered, will have thinned sidewalls and accommodate 10-abreast economy seating. I would not have put Etihad in the 10-abreast camp, but who knows?

Other airlines with a less aspirational marketing image may well bite on this, in which case it will confer a significant advantage to Airbus in future campaigns against both 787 and 777X.

"the second batch of them after the first five are very slightly wider on the airframe, so in economy we have an extra one seat per row, so it goes up to 404 seats,” said the executive"

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2021/11/1 ... 3s-happen/

It would be bad for the 777X, but it pushes the A350 further away from the 787 and gives the A330neo some breathing room. Whether that is a net positive or negative for the 787 remains to be seen.

The mental gymnastics about the comfort select members will make here would be fun to watch though.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:42 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
This suggests Etihad A3510s to be delivered, beyond the first 5 already delivered, will have thinned sidewalls and accommodate 10-abreast economy seating. I would not have put Etihad in the 10-abreast camp, but who knows?

Other airlines with a less aspirational marketing image may well bite on this, in which case it will confer a significant advantage to Airbus in future campaigns against both 787 and 777X.

"the second batch of them after the first five are very slightly wider on the airframe, so in economy we have an extra one seat per row, so it goes up to 404 seats,” said the executive"

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2021/11/1 ... 3s-happen/


That would give the A350 8.6% more capacity. I know this doesn't directly translate into CASM improvement as you are carrying the extra weight that comes with the extra seats and bodies.

Maybe somebody who has a stronger aeronautical calculus background can crunch the numbers.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:43 am

10 abreast in A350 economy would be too narrow for my shoulders. In would put in in the same class as 9 abreast A330, 8 abreast 767. I'v always been avoiding 10 abreast on 777s and even 787s 9 abreast if I had options. I even choose transfers (mostly cheaper too..). Airlines like Delta and Korean benefitted from it.
 
Opus99
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:53 am

keesje wrote:
10 abreast in A350 economy would be too narrow for my shoulders. In would put in in the same class as 9 abreast A330, 8 abreast 767. I'v always been avoiding 10 abreast on 777s and even 787s 9 abreast if I had options. I even choose transfers (mostly cheaper too..). Airlines like Delta and Korean benefitted from it.

It might not actually be bad if they extend the walls. I think airbus might pull it off. Let’s see
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:58 am

Opus99 wrote:
keesje wrote:
10 abreast in A350 economy would be too narrow for my shoulders. In would put in in the same class as 9 abreast A330, 8 abreast 767. I'v always been avoiding 10 abreast on 777s and even 787s 9 abreast if I had options. I even choose transfers (mostly cheaper too..). Airlines like Delta and Korean benefitted from it.

It might not actually be bad if they extend the walls. I think airbus might pull it off. Let’s see

I mean by simple mathematics it will be tighter shoulder level than a 10Y 777. No amount of seat or interior design can change that. So if you find a 10Y 777 too tight…

Seat design is just about increasing the width of seat cushions and between armrests so airlines can advertise wider.
Last edited by Polot on Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:01 pm

Polot wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
keesje wrote:
10 abreast in A350 economy would be too narrow for my shoulders. In would put in in the same class as 9 abreast A330, 8 abreast 767. I'v always been avoiding 10 abreast on 777s and even 787s 9 abreast if I had options. I even choose transfers (mostly cheaper too..). Airlines like Delta and Korean benefitted from it.

It might not actually be bad if they extend the walls. I think airbus might pull it off. Let’s see

I mean by simple mathematics it will be tighter shoulder level than a 10Y 777. No amount of seat or interior design can change that. So if you find a 10Y 777 too tight…


How wide is the 777 at 10Y? This update should bring the width of the A350 at 10Y 17 inch.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:08 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Polot wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
It might not actually be bad if they extend the walls. I think airbus might pull it off. Let’s see

I mean by simple mathematics it will be tighter shoulder level than a 10Y 777. No amount of seat or interior design can change that. So if you find a 10Y 777 too tight…


How wide is the 777 at 10Y? This update should bring the width of the A350 at 10Y 17 inch.

For the 77L/W, Boeing gives 17” seats with 2” armrests and 16” aisles.

For the 777X (which remember has thinner/resculpted sidewalls compared to classic 777s) Boeing is advertising 18” aisles with ~17.2” seats with 2” armrests. At 1.5” armrests (which remember is the standard armrest width on the A350, contrary to all other wide bodies which use 2”) that’s about 17.86” a seat. And of course you can make the aisles narrower like older 777s.

You can manipulate advertised seat width by playing with arm rest widths, but that doesn’t change shoulder room.
 
marcelh
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:16 pm

Polot wrote:
The mental gymnastics about the comfort select members will make here would be fun to watch though.


10 abreast in an a350? I’ll pass…
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:24 pm

marcelh wrote:
Polot wrote:
The mental gymnastics about the comfort select members will make here would be fun to watch though.


10 abreast in an a350? I’ll pass…

Me too, I have managed to avoid 10x on the 777 so far.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:49 am

Apparently RR is closely working with Airbus on the geared carbon fan Ultrafan. The Ultrafan engine could be fit under an A350 efficiently because the smaller sized LP turbine makes installation possible.

The A350 wing and longitudinal stability (rudder) can handle the bigger heavier engine, which should be ~10% better sfc than the Trend XWB according to a RR chief engineer Geer. (Starting 48:30 in the video).

https://youtu.be/sRAt8mn3HyY

The prototypes Ultrafan that will enter testing will have thrust rating similar to Trend XWB 84. There will be 4 prototypes. Later on it will be tested on RR test 747 aircraft.

Image
RollsRoyce Ultrafan artist impression
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:56 am

keesje wrote:
Apparently RR is closely working with Airbus on the geared carbon fan Ultrafan. The Ultrafan engine could be fit under an A350 efficiently because the smaller sized LP turbine makes installation possible.

The A350 wing and longitudinal stability (rudder) can handle the bigger heavier engine, which should be ~10% better sfc than the Trend XWB according to a RR chief engineer Geer. (Starting 48:30 in the video).

https://youtu.be/sRAt8mn3HyY

The prototypes Ultrafan that will enter testing will have thrust rating similar to Trend XWB 84. There will be 4 prototypes. Later on it will be tested on RR test 747 aircraft.

Image
RollsRoyce Ultrafan artist impression


From 53th minute mark. "Betting man would put EIS at end of this decade". That is faster then expected. I would think launch end of decade with a EIS in 2035...
 
TaromA380
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:14 pm

keesje wrote:
Apparently RR is closely working with Airbus on the geared carbon fan Ultrafan. The Ultrafan engine could be fit under an A350 efficiently because the smaller sized LP turbine makes installation possible.

The A350 wing and longitudinal stability (rudder) can handle the bigger heavier engine, which should be ~10% better sfc than the Trend XWB according to a RR chief engineer Geer. (Starting 48:30 in the video).

https://youtu.be/sRAt8mn3HyY

The prototypes Ultrafan that will enter testing will have thrust rating similar to Trend XWB 84. There will be 4 prototypes. Later on it will be tested on RR test 747 aircraft.

Image
RollsRoyce Ultrafan artist impression

It looks like an A350Neo. Wow. Perhaps it would deserve its own topic?
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:25 pm

keesje wrote:
which should be ~10% better sfc than the Trend XWB according to a RR chief engineer Geer. (Starting 48:30 in the video).


With such a significant SFC gain, I think the chances Airbus will not simple stretch the A350 at the same time are pretty close to zero. Already it is more than capable enough. There is absolutely no need for the bulk of the A350 market to have more range. As mentioned in the second post of the thread, a 283T A350-950 or 1000 (simple stretch) and a 319-325t A350-1050 or 1100 simple stretch possibly with folding wing tips seems to be inevitable. I don't see an urgent need for much bigger and the only thing being able to compete with it on the basis of capability and CASM would be a HGW 787NG.

JonesNL wrote:
From 53th minute mark. "Betting man would put EIS at end of this decade". That is faster then expected. I would think launch end of decade with a EIS in 2035...


The original EIS for the ultrafan was around 2025, why would it take another 10 years?

So EIS around 2028-2031, as I have been saying. That would indeed make the competitive life span of the 777X extremely short.
 
SteinarN
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:27 pm

I have said several times before, this engine put on the A350 would be the end of the B777X.
And I think it will be put there, with service entry before the end of the decade.
 
SteinarN
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:34 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
keesje wrote:
which should be ~10% better sfc than the Trend XWB according to a RR chief engineer Geer. (Starting 48:30 in the video).


With such a significant SFC gain, I think the chances Airbus will not simple stretch the A350 at the same time are pretty close to zero. Already it is more than capable enough. There is absolutely no need for the bulk of the A350 market to have more range. As mentioned in the second post of the thread, a 283T A350-950 or 1000 (simple stretch) and a 319-325t A350-1050 or 1100 simple stretch possibly with folding wing tips seems to be inevitable. I don't see an urgent need for much bigger and the only thing being able to compete with it on the basis of capability and CASM would be a HGW 787NG.

JonesNL wrote:
From 53th minute mark. "Betting man would put EIS at end of this decade". That is faster then expected. I would think launch end of decade with a EIS in 2035...


The original EIS for the ultrafan was around 2025, why would it take another 10 years?

So EIS around 2028-2031, as I have been saying. That would indeed make the competitive life span of the 777X extremely short.


I agree completely.
Boeing would have to follow suite with the B787, say max one year after the A350 got this engine, with a slightly scaled down version of it. Then these two families would be the only competitive wide bodies out there, except if Airbus decided to put the B787 version on the A330 too :duck:
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:00 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
The F is stated to have 319T MTOW, which suggests the Sunrise frames will be 319 also

How does that suggest anything about what the Sunrise will or will not be?

Not sure how you're drawing that inference at all.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:06 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The F is stated to have 319T MTOW, which suggests the Sunrise frames will be 319 also

How does that suggest anything about what the Sunrise will or will not be?

Not sure how you're drawing that inference at all.


My inference is that Airbus would want to set the MTOW of the F at the maximum it can achieve. That may be wrong. But if it is right, then a Sunrise frame would be subject to the same maximum accessible MTOW
 
JohanTally
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:10 pm

TaromA380 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Apparently RR is closely working with Airbus on the geared carbon fan Ultrafan. The Ultrafan engine could be fit under an A350 efficiently because the smaller sized LP turbine makes installation possible.

The A350 wing and longitudinal stability (rudder) can handle the bigger heavier engine, which should be ~10% better sfc than the Trend XWB according to a RR chief engineer Geer. (Starting 48:30 in the video).

https://youtu.be/sRAt8mn3HyY

The prototypes Ultrafan that will enter testing will have thrust rating similar to Trend XWB 84. There will be 4 prototypes. Later on it will be tested on RR test 747 aircraft.

Image
RollsRoyce Ultrafan artist impression

It looks like an A350Neo. Wow. Perhaps it would deserve its own topic?

The Ultrafan A350Neo prospects have been discussed extensively. The video shared by keesje is 5 months old and RR has slowed development until an aircraft manufacturer commits to the Ultrafan.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1433143&p=21728157&hilit=Ultrafan#p21728157
 
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reidar76
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:14 pm

Possible timeline based on what's rumoured and further speculation.

In 2024:
- if there aren't any further delays, EIS for the 777-9.
- Launch of the 777XF

In 2025:
- A350F EIS
- certification of fellowfly for the A350 family (5% reduced fuel consumption on long haul)
- certification of extended single-pilot operations in cruise for the A350 family (significant reduction of crew costs on long haul)

In 2026:
- Launch of the A350neo

In 2028:
- EIS of the 777XF

In 2030:
- EIS for the A350neo

In 2032:
- Launch of the A350-950 and A350-1100 (and possible resurrection of the A350-800)

In 2033:
- Last 777-9 delivered (pax), only 8 years since EIS, but 20 years since launch. Less than 251 777-9 delivered.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:27 pm

reidar76 wrote:
In 2026:
- Launch of the A350neo

In 2030:
- EIS for the A350neo

In 2032:
- Launch of the A350-950 and A350-1100 (and possible resurrection of the A350-800)


I would condense that into:

2024:
- Launch of the 280t A350-"950"NEO and 320t A350-"1050"NEO

2030:
- EIS for the A350neo

2030:
- Launch of a new 260t A350-"850" Replacing the A330NEO.

2035:
- EIS of the A350-"850"
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:54 pm

Airbus started discussing a A350-2000 in 2016 (CX) and shelved it in 2019 (Covid-19). https://www.executivetraveller.com/airb ... -a350-2000 Apparently is was feasible and could be proposed if market requirements would surface again in the coming years. Cathay had a requirement. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... i-non-stop

Everybody is a bit carefull at this stage, understandably.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:03 pm

keesje wrote:
Airbus started discussing a A350-2000 in 2016 (CX) and shelved it in 2019 (Covid-19). https://www.executivetraveller.com/airb ... -a350-2000 Apparently is was feasible and could be proposed if market requirements would surface again in the coming years.

Everybody is a bit carefull at this stage, understandably.


I suspect when the first hints of an A350-2000 emerged it was more of an effort from Airbus to take some wind out of the sails (sales...) of the 777X program. I don't think with the trent-XWB and the current wing, the 2000 would have been that capable or efficient. I would probably close to the 777X without beating it. With ultrafan this changes, because now the SFC gain allows it to maintain existing take off weights weights and thus induced drag levels while also maintaining sufficient range. In fact, a 319t ultrafan A350-1000 would be a ridiculous waist of weight and induced drag for range really no airline needs.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:24 pm

SteinarN wrote:
I have said several times before, this engine put on the A350 would be the end of the B777X.
And I think it will be put there, with service entry before the end of the decade.


What makes you think that? We have been discussing the 77X and A350 in great detail here for the last few days, and one of the constant "go too" points in favour of the 77X is that it will have the most advanced engines. Also, that many potential VLA customers much prefer GE engines over RR, especially for freight, as for reasons I don't quite understand RR engines are unsuitable for freighters.

We don't figures for the GenX yet obviously, but I think it was targetting a 15% better CASM over the 77W, and LH has kinda confirmed that it's around a 13%- So in that ball park. I was kinda expecting an overall fuel burn improvement of 15-20% at least, if the 77X any has a chance of being competitive.

So are people thinking the Ultra-fan will improve on the GenX or just compliment it.?
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:36 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
I have said several times before, this engine put on the A350 would be the end of the B777X.
And I think it will be put there, with service entry before the end of the decade.


What makes you think that? We have been discussing the 77X and A350 in great detail here for the last few days, and one of the constant "go too" points in favour of the 77X is that it will have the most advanced engines. Also, that many potential VLA customers much prefer GE engines over RR, especially for freight, as for reasons I don't quite understand RR engines are unsuitable for freighters.

We don't figures for the GenX yet obviously, but I think it was targetting a 15% better CASM over the 77W, and LH has kinda confirmed that it's around a 13%- So in that ball park. I was kinda expecting an overall fuel burn improvement of 15-20% at least, if the 77X any has a chance of being competitive.

So are people thinking the Ultra-fan will improve on the GenX or just compliment it.?


This Ultrafan combined a new hot section with a 4:1 reduction gear to optimize both core engine and fan speed. An advantage mentioned would be the more compact LP turbine making it easier to install a high BPR engine under a wing such as A350. RR says the two spool GE9x doesn't have that advantage and it isn't aware of GE developing a geared turbofan.

Image
Rolls Royce https://www.gastopowerjournal.com/techn ... n-research

I won't go into which one is more efficient, because a.net will never agree on that one.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:48 pm

keesje wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
I have said several times before, this engine put on the A350 would be the end of the B777X.
And I think it will be put there, with service entry before the end of the decade.


What makes you think that? We have been discussing the 77X and A350 in great detail here for the last few days, and one of the constant "go too" points in favour of the 77X is that it will have the most advanced engines. Also, that many potential VLA customers much prefer GE engines over RR, especially for freight, as for reasons I don't quite understand RR engines are unsuitable for freighters.

We don't figures for the GenX yet obviously, but I think it was targetting a 15% better CASM over the 77W, and LH has kinda confirmed that it's around a 13%- So in that ball park. I was kinda expecting an overall fuel burn improvement of 15-20% at least, if the 77X any has a chance of being competitive.

So are people thinking the Ultra-fan will improve on the GenX or just compliment it.?


This Ultrafan combined a new hot section with a 4:1 reduction gear to optimize both core engine and fan speed. An advantage mentioned would be the more compact LP turbine making it easier to install a high BPR engine under a wing such as A350. RR says the two spool GE9x doesn't have that advantage and it isn't aware of GE developing a geared turbofan.

Image
Rolls Royce https://www.gastopowerjournal.com/techn ... n-research

I won't go into which one is more efficient, because a.net will never agree on that one.


I reckon anyone expecting a originally planned 2020 EIS non GTF (even though very advanced otherwise) engine is more efficient than a 2025 originally planned EIS GTF engine (with a pretty advanced core as well) is kidding themselves. It may not be miles apart, but the ultrafan can be reasonably expected to have the SFC advantage.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:54 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
SteinarN wrote:
I have said several times before, this engine put on the A350 would be the end of the B777X.
And I think it will be put there, with service entry before the end of the decade.


What makes you think that? We have been discussing the 77X and A350 in great detail here for the last few days, and one of the constant "go too" points in favour of the 77X is that it will have the most advanced engines. Also, that many potential VLA customers much prefer GE engines over RR, especially for freight, as for reasons I don't quite understand RR engines are unsuitable for freighters.

We don't figures for the GenX yet obviously, but I think it was targetting a 15% better CASM over the 77W, and LH has kinda confirmed that it's around a 13%- So in that ball park. I was kinda expecting an overall fuel burn improvement of 15-20% at least, if the 77X any has a chance of being competitive.

So are people thinking the Ultra-fan will improve on the GenX or just compliment it.?


I think you mean the G9X engine for the 77X. A GEnX would be quite underpowered, and the mistake sort of undermines your assertion as to your guesstimate as to fuel burn improvements needed to be competitive. The 77X competes with the A35K, which has sold 150 units so far since launch (excluding Iran Air), and has had 3 deliveries this year, the last one being in June.

The reason for skepticism about a RR engine for a freighter (based on the A35K) is their contract structure for support, which is also why…no one points out the last new build widebody freighter delivered with a RR engine.

While Airbus has waffled on it’s characterization of what counts as a VLA over the years (at one point, when cancelling the A380, proclaiming that the A330 even had counted in it’s forecasts based on theoretical maximum seating so they were right all along I believe), the 77X and A35K are really not in the big quad VLA size classes for operating costs.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:59 pm

SteinarN wrote:
I have said several times before, this engine put on the A350 would be the end of the B777X.
And I think it will be put there, with service entry before the end of the decade.


The only reason Airbus would launch such a new widebody engine/derivative in time to do this (around 2025) would be if they continue to be unable to bring in orders for the A35K/A350F. Doing so would certainly spur Boeing to re-engine the 787 as well, and I don’t think this is something Rolls, nor Airbus really want to force into action as the airlines are recovering from the covid years (probably 5+ years of long haul traffic at least being negatively impacted).
 
Daysleeper
Posts: 743
Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:33 pm

Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:07 pm

texl1649 wrote:

I think you mean the G9X engine for the 77X. A GEnX would be quite underpowered, and the mistake sort of undermines your assertion as to your guesstimate as to fuel burn improvements needed to be competitive. The 77X competes with the A35K, which has sold 150 units so far since launch (excluding Iran Air), and has had 3 deliveries this year, the last one being in June.

The reason for skepticism about a RR engine for a freighter (based on the A35K) is their contract structure for support, which is also why…no one points out the last new build widebody freighter delivered with a RR engine.

While Airbus has waffled on it’s characterization of what counts as a VLA over the years (at one point, when cancelling the A380, proclaiming that the A330 even had counted in it’s forecasts based on theoretical maximum seating so they were right all along I believe), the 77X and A35K are really not in the big quad VLA size classes for operating costs.


I assume you are referring to the GE9X engines? As far as I know there is no engine called the G9X so yes, with none existent engines the 77X would be significantly under powered. Even more so than if it were fitted with the GenX engines that I mistakenly referred too in my initial post. If a typo undermines my assertions regarding fuel burn, what do you think being so pedantic about the correction, but getting the same information wrong says about the contents of your post?

Anyhow, the A35K is not the only competition that the 77X faces and directly comparing the two serve little to no purpose in my view. I don't to drag this thread off topic so I would refer you to the thread in which we discuss it in detail.

I know there is a debate as to if an LOI\MOU counts as an order, but ignoring that debate then technically 11 freighters with RR power were ordered in the last week. So not that long ago really, when you think about it. Service contracts and the likes can all be amended to be more suitable to the freighter market, I don't see what the problem is here. It's not like TrentXWB are rare and complex, they are installed on almost 500 A350's and are being maintained at multiple locations around the world.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1990
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:11 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
texl1649 wrote:

I think you mean the G9X engine for the 77X. A GEnX would be quite underpowered, and the mistake sort of undermines your assertion as to your guesstimate as to fuel burn improvements needed to be competitive. The 77X competes with the A35K, which has sold 150 units so far since launch (excluding Iran Air), and has had 3 deliveries this year, the last one being in June.

The reason for skepticism about a RR engine for a freighter (based on the A35K) is their contract structure for support, which is also why…no one points out the last new build widebody freighter delivered with a RR engine.

While Airbus has waffled on it’s characterization of what counts as a VLA over the years (at one point, when cancelling the A380, proclaiming that the A330 even had counted in it’s forecasts based on theoretical maximum seating so they were right all along I believe), the 77X and A35K are really not in the big quad VLA size classes for operating costs.


I assume you are referring to the GE9X engines? As far as I know there is no engine called the G9X so yes, with none existent engines the 77X would be significantly under powered. Even more so than if it were fitted with the GenX engines that I mistakenly referred too in my initial post. If a typo undermines my assertions regarding fuel burn, what do you think being so pedantic about the correction, but getting the same information wrong says about the contents of your post?

Anyhow, the A35K is not the only competition that the 77X faces and directly comparing the two serve little to no purpose in my view. I don't to drag this thread off topic so I would refer you to the thread in which we discuss it in detail.

I know there is a debate as to if an LOI\MOU counts as an order, but ignoring that debate then technically 11 freighters with RR power were ordered in the last week. So not that long ago really, when you think about it. Service contracts and the likes can all be amended to be more suitable to the freighter market, I don't see what the problem is here. It's not like TrentXWB are rare and complex, they are installed on almost 500 A350's and are being maintained at multiple locations around the world.


They’re only being maintained on about 50 or so A35K’s, only 3 of which have been delivered this year. Just fyi. When was the last order/delivery for one before said LOI or whatever for a program that is not industrially launched yet? I am asking honestly, as I don’t know the answer. Has a widebody RR freighter ever been delivered new? I assume BA got some at some point as 744’s etc.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:28 pm

texl1649 wrote:

They’re only being maintained on about 50 or so A35K’s, only 3 of which have been delivered this year. Just fyi. When was the last order/delivery for one before said LOI or whatever for a program that is not industrially launched yet? I am asking honestly, as I don’t know the answer. Has a widebody RR freighter ever been delivered new? I assume BA got some at some point as 744’s etc.


I honestly don't know, I think the 767F was also available with RR, if anyone ordered them is another matter though. And I don't think BA ever operated 74F's - but I could be wrong.

I also don't understand the obsession here with only making a comparison with the A35K, well I do, I suspect its the only possible way to show the lack of interest in the 77X in a good light. The freighter is neither a A359 or A35K - its simply the A350F. The point I was trying to make is that there is already a very large amount of support for the A350 and the Trents, much more than there is or perhaps ever would be for the 77X. i don't see any merit in the debate around RR power being used for freight.

I also don't understand why you need to mention this years A35K deliveries. How many 787's have been delivered this year? Its pointless.
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:40 pm

Any enhancement hopefully will resolve the galley issue. Heard crew from SQ and MH, the galley layout of their current fleet is really tight and very difficult to work with. Not sure how true is this. Do other airlines face the same issue?
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:00 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
I also don't understand the obsession here with only making a comparison with the A35K, well I do, I suspect its the only possible way to show the lack of interest in the 77X in a good light.


That's a bit disingenous. What else to compare it to, the A350-900 with it's 100 fewer passengers when compared to 777-9 in when both are configured with a typical 3-class capacity?

The comparison could possibly go 777-8 vs A350-900 possibly... and no one would fault you for concluding that the 777-8 is a complete dud. But it's the A35k that is competing with the 777-9. At this moment, a brief snapshot in time, it appears when airlines are thinking 'Go Big' that the advantage lay with the 777-9 as opposed to A35k. That said, I will concede that may swing completely in the opposite direction in favor of Airbus as 777W begin to be retired enmass and even further with a re-engined and stretched A35X.

I am as shocked as anyone that the A350-1000 has not garnered more sales. So much of the XWB success has depended so far on just 1 model, the A350-900. But I suspect like many in this thread that the ongoing evolutionary enhancements will make a difference and make the entire XWB family even more desireable.
 
TaromA380
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:52 pm

I guess the A350-900 and A350-1000 would follow the story of the A320 and A321.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:08 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I am as shocked as anyone that the A350-1000 has not garnered more sales. So much of the XWB success has depended so far on just 1 model, the A350-900. But I suspect like many in this thread that the ongoing evolutionary enhancements will make a difference and make the entire XWB family even more desireable.


The A350-900 is flourishing on the 777-200ER replacement cycle. In three to four years we will see the A350-1000 garnering the majority of new orders. That's when 77W replacement cycle starts.
 
trex8
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:39 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Has a widebody RR freighter ever been delivered new? I assume BA got some at some point as 744’s etc.



Cathay and Cargolux took new build RR powered 744Fs
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:40 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
I honestly don't know, I think the 767F was also available with RR, if anyone ordered them is another matter though.

Only two airlines ever ordered RR-powered 767s, British Airways and China Yunnan (no, not Qantas).... but none of them were freighters.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Airbus A350XWB ongoing evolutionary enhancements, EIS 2025-2030.

Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:56 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
I honestly don't know, I think the 767F was also available with RR, if anyone ordered them is another matter though.

Only two airlines ever ordered RR-powered 767s, British Airways and China Yunnan (no, not Qantas).... but none of them were freighters.

True, but QF did take 7(?) second hand from BA.

Gemuser

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