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docmtl
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A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:52 pm

Back in 2019, we had a thread asking the question whether the epic battle between Airbus and Embraer/Boeing on the A220 vs E2-195 was already won by Airbus.

Since then:

1 - A220-100/300 is getting close to 800 orders, while E2-190/195 orders float around 200 frames;
2 - Airbus might even launch an A220-500 stretch, while Embraer has postponed (for good ?...) the E2-175 variant;
2 - Orders for the E2-175 are nil, even though orders (and market needs) for the E-175 still trickle in;
3 - Airbus has put all its mighty weight to sell A220s, while Embraer lost Boeing's global sales force after the merge that never was;
4 - Embraer seems to have changed its strategy by going back to its core market: less than 100-seat regional turboprops: E3-NGTP will probably replace the stillborn E2-175;
5 - Embraer also seems to be downsizing its future offer:
- Bizz Jets division is doing fine, and selling like hot cakes;
- their future strategic vision towards 2040 presents planes seating from 9 up to 50 passengers (however hybrid, electric or hydrogen powered they may be);
6 - I'm checking Dubai's "Other manufacturers" thread, and not many good news for Embraer on the E2s, still waiting for Lufthansa to save the day...

This reminds me of the same battle between Bombardier and Embraer on the 70-to-90 seats RJs: BBD stretched the same old CRJ-200 and offered the CRJ-700/900, while Embraer offered a clean-sheet new plane, the E-170/75/90/95 family. Embraer sold 2,000 of these frames to date, while BBD closed the production line.

Is history repeating itself, the other way around this time ?

So..., can one say at this time and age that Airbus has finally won the battle A220 vs E2-195 ?

Have a nice day everyone

docmtl
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:26 am

In a word... No

The E2 may not be the best seller but it's far from beaten.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:46 am

northstardc4m wrote:
In a word... No

The E2 may not be the best seller but it's far from beaten.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

Far from beaten? 643 A220s ordered and 179 delivered, vs 205 E2s ordered and 43 delivered; 3:1 ratio for orders. Those numbers are a landslide for the A220.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:52 am

WayexTDI wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
In a word... No

The E2 may not be the best seller but it's far from beaten.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

Far from beaten? 643 A220s ordered and 179 delivered, vs 205 E2s ordered and 43 delivered; 3:1 ratio for orders. Those numbers are a landslide for the A220.


Profit wise though, the E2 was just a newer development while the A220 was a clean sheet and needs to sell way more frames.
 
JohanTally
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:56 am

WayexTDI wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
In a word... No

The E2 may not be the best seller but it's far from beaten.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

Far from beaten? 643 A220s ordered and 179 delivered, vs 205 E2s ordered and 43 delivered; 3:1 ratio for orders. Those numbers are a landslide for the A220.

The CS1/3 was launched 8 years before 190/195-E2
 
DN4CAAD
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:24 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
In a word... No

The E2 may not be the best seller but it's far from beaten.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

Far from beaten? 643 A220s ordered and 179 delivered, vs 205 E2s ordered and 43 delivered; 3:1 ratio for orders. Those numbers are a landslide for the A220.


Profit wise though, the E2 was just a newer development while the A220 was a clean sheet and needs to sell way more frames.



From an economic sense, lower costs do mean a lot. A company will go to great lengths to lower costs rather than raise production when they hold a degree of market power (a slight monopoly in a market). In perfectly competitive markets (which do not exist in aviation but for the sake of argument), a company will pay all it's economic profits (not necessarily the same as profit) to acquire a technology that lowered its costs to turn the profit in the first place (if a company makes a 5M profit from a cost-saving method, they will pay 5M toward it). Even at 1:3 for sales, the E jet may still be better for Embraer than the A220 for Airbus at this point.
 
Capricorn
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:39 am

To me as a aviation outsider the A220 vs E2 competition always seems a bit weird. The A220 with a potential A220-500 on the horizon seems to aim at a different market segment than the E2. I think that the A220 sells better reflects more of a general merkt trend to up-gauge capacity in order to reduce cost and simplify fleets. The potential NSA by both, A & B, seems to be around the size of an A321 or MAX10, that would leave the A220 family as the sole NB-family offering a capacity of around 130-170 seats (with a A220-500).

Regular flying becoming available to more and more consumers around the globe coupled with the decrease in cost of the aviation industry makes small planes become a niche market as airlines are able to put butts in seats (very remotely similar to how small cars have become a niche market in many richer societies). That all IMO favors the A220 over the E2 regarding sales to commercial airlines.

Nevertheless, the E2 is a very nice plane, an I personally prefer it over the A220 because of its 2 + 2 seating. And its obviously a phenomenal biz jet.
 
JohanTally
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 4:50 am

DN4CAAD wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Far from beaten? 643 A220s ordered and 179 delivered, vs 205 E2s ordered and 43 delivered; 3:1 ratio for orders. Those numbers are a landslide for the A220.


Profit wise though, the E2 was just a newer development while the A220 was a clean sheet and needs to sell way more frames.



From an economic sense, lower costs do mean a lot. A company will go to great lengths to lower costs rather than raise production when they hold a degree of market power (a slight monopoly in a market). In perfectly competitive markets (which do not exist in aviation but for the sake of argument), a company will pay all it's economic profits (not necessarily the same as profit) to acquire a technology that lowered its costs to turn the profit in the first place (if a company makes a 5M profit from a cost-saving method, they will pay 5M toward it). Even at 1:3 for sales, the E jet may still be better for Embraer than the A220 for Airbus at this point.

This article points out that at the current production rate Airbus loses about $400 million per year on the A220 program. Embraer did invest heavily in the new E2 wing but still may have less of a burden on the balance sheet versus the A220.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/09/28/airbu ... cut-costs/
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 4:59 am

JohanTally wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
In a word... No

The E2 may not be the best seller but it's far from beaten.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

Far from beaten? 643 A220s ordered and 179 delivered, vs 205 E2s ordered and 43 delivered; 3:1 ratio for orders. Those numbers are a landslide for the A220.

The CS1/3 was launched 8 years before 190/195-E2

OK, the E2 was launched in late 2011; so, 2012-2021 was 205 frames. In the same timeframe, BBD and Airbus Canada sold 514 frames. That's still 2.5:1 ratio for the A220, or 71.5% of the market share; still not a landslide and an a$$ whooping? Not sure what you need then.
 
JohanTally
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:21 am

WayexTDI wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Far from beaten? 643 A220s ordered and 179 delivered, vs 205 E2s ordered and 43 delivered; 3:1 ratio for orders. Those numbers are a landslide for the A220.

The CS1/3 was launched 8 years before 190/195-E2

OK, the E2 was launched in late 2011; so, 2012-2021 was 205 frames. In the same timeframe, BBD and Airbus Canada sold 514 frames. That's still 2.5:1 ratio for the A220, or 71.5% of the market share; still not a landslide and an a$$ whooping? Not sure what you need then.

The CS1/3 had 177 orders before the E2 was launched in June 2013. BBD is no longer in the commercial aviation sector because of the program. Airbus obviously has the resources to increase production and start generating positive cash flow but they aren't there yet.
 
SA280
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:48 am

By only comparing the two products, the sales gap shouldn't be that big.

I suspect Airbus is doing everything they can to kill the E2 at an early stage. And this obviously wouldn't be good for the airline industry in the long term.
 
sfojvjets
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:30 am

WayexTDI wrote:
OK, the E2 was launched in late 2011; so, 2012-2021 was 205 frames. In the same timeframe, BBD and Airbus Canada sold 514 frames. That's still 2.5:1 ratio for the A220, or 71.5% of the market share; still not a landslide and an a$$ whooping? Not sure what you need then.

Well, that only applies if you consider them to occupy the same market segment which is not the case. The A220-100 is a step above the 190-E2 in terms of capacity, and the -300 js a step above the 195-E2 in terms of capacity. When you compare ranges, the disparity becomes clearer, as the 220 has about 3400-3600 nmi of range compared to the E2's 2600-2000nmi (excluding the 175-E2). This makes it pretty clear that you can't just swap out an A220 for an E2. I think it's somewhat similar to the 787 vs A330neo debate as opposed to the 787 vs A350 debate. You aren't going to see US regional airlines ever consider ordering the 220 over the E2, for example.
 
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keesje
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:51 am

I think Embraer holds the 80-120 seat segment. Overlap is between the E195-E2 and A220-100, which are close. The A220-100 backlog is small compared to the -300.

Image

I think Embraer will do fine. KLM & SAS ordered them, although I agree they certainly could use a few more orders.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Max Q
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:54 am

Acquiring what was the CS300 was a brilliant move by Airbus, while the program hasn’t paid off yet they have the ability to significantly lower production costs and as time goes by slowly sell more and more of this clean sheet, highly advanced efficient aircraft


Eventually the A320 series will be supplanted by this aircraft, the proposed A220-500 series will have unbeatable performance and efficiency, replacing all narrow body models in the Airbus line except the A321
 
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keesje
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:11 am

Max Q wrote:
Acquiring what was the CS300 was a brilliant move by Airbus, while the program hasn’t paid off yet they have the ability to significantly lower production costs and as time goes by slowly sell more and more of this clean sheet, highly advanced efficient aircraft

Eventually the A320 series will be supplanted by this aircraft, the proposed A220-500 series will have unbeatable performance and efficiency, replacing all narrow body models in the Airbus line except the A321


An A220-500 would be very efficient but still significantly smaller and less capable than an A320NEO and doesn't have containerised luggage/cargo options, which are used by many.

Image
source keesje
 
Raptormodeller
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:08 am

Max Q wrote:
Acquiring what was the CS300 was a brilliant move by Airbus, while the program hasn’t paid off yet they have the ability to significantly lower production costs and as time goes by slowly sell more and more of this clean sheet, highly advanced efficient aircraft


Eventually the A320 series will be supplanted by this aircraft, the proposed A220-500 series will have unbeatable performance and efficiency, replacing all narrow body models in the Airbus line except the A321

Agreed on the first paragraph, but as a previous poster it's no A320 replacement. I'm no expert but they are both in slightly different, albeit similar market sectors.
 
tvh
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:50 am

We should not look at this as a winner takes it all competition. The A220 may sale more, but the e2 can still be a healthy ans succesful program.
 
tvh
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:40 am

Max Q wrote:
Acquiring what was the CS300 was a brilliant move by Airbus, while the program hasn’t paid off yet they have the ability to significantly lower production costs and as time goes by slowly sell more and more of this clean sheet, highly advanced efficient aircraft


Eventually the A320 series will be supplanted by this aircraft, the proposed A220-500 series will have unbeatable performance and efficiency, replacing all narrow body models in the Airbus line except the A321


I also have said it in an other thread, There is still room for a model between the A220-500 and the A321, but it should be larger than the A320. Maybe airbus will build it when they rewing the A320 serries. When you put on new wing on an aircraft you have to rethink its balance. Good time to optimise the length.
 
Jomar777
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:28 am

There are several things that need to be taken into consideration. Firstly, as a CS Project (BBD), regardless of the merits of the product, this was a catastrophic failure which brought down BBD to its knees. Should Airbus not have pulled its weight behind, it would never see the light. Even now, with so many orders, say what you say, it is far beyond being profitable. The E2, regardless of orders and backlog, is profitable and, by all means, not dead.
With the demise of the CS Project and the subsequent birth of the A220 Project, the closer challenger to the E2195 - the A220-100, has not many orders. Even if more than the E2195, again, it is far beyond profitable.
The A220-300 is a much more closer match to the A319/B737-7 and, in several cases, A320/B737-8. It was, under BBDs hands, their chance to tap into a market dominated by Boeing and Airbus. The E2-195 was never a main competitor on that level and never was intended to be. The success of the A220-300 owes more to the MAX issues and also from Airbus marketing the plane together (and sometimes even against it) the A320. Henceforth, every order that Airbus gets for the A220-300 is bad news for Boeing, for example, but not necessarily for Embraer in such magnitude.
Consider that, below that level, Embraer simply owns the market. The failure of the E2-175 is more than offset by the continuous success of the E-175 which is still being ordered a lot and has the bigger share of the American Market on the segment.
Embraer's aim on their new projects, Hydrogen Propeller with lower seat base is exactly them trying to keep stride on their main core and, maybe, pipping up share from ATR - not Airbus and Boeing. And, trying to become the pioneer on Environmentally Sustainable Flight - which will play a big part on short flight journeys with the current (and future) compromises assumed in regards to Carbon Net Zero.

Could go on but let's summarise:
The C-Series Project was a failure. Despite the qualities of the product, it caused the ultimate collapse of BBD as a plane maker on that level.
The A220 is successful only because Airbus threw their weight on it (perhaps even the EU-weight if you consider what happened with ITA and, to a certain extent , the AF Order).
The A220 is NOT entirely successful - it will be only when it finally becomes profitable. There's no guarantee that most of the orders received are not heavily discounted if you consider the price to shift those frames out of production line.
The E2 Program is small and was always meant to be. Seems a failure because we compare with a Project that became much bigger now that Airbus (and not BBD) is behind
The main A220 product - the A220-300 does not directly compete with the E2-195 (that was for the A220-100) but with the MAX7, MAX8 and A319 and A320.
The A220-500 dream - we talked so much about this that it is a waste of time here.
 
Spyrith
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 11:03 am

From everything I've read about the E195-E2, it seems to me to operate in slightly different market segment than the A220, since it seems better suited for shorter flights, given its lower fuel capacity but also somewhat better fuel efficiency per passanger.

They do overlap in many regards, but the E195-E2 at least has some niche use cases that can make it edge out the A220 in certain scenarios and for some airlines and that makes the plane good enough I guess.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 11:12 am

Eventually this will come down to production efficiency and economics of scale. The E2 has enough orders to increase production rate and benefits from E175 production simularities.

However Airbus is re-optimizing A220 production and in another thread there is speculation of a two large new orders:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1457803

If Airbus can reduce production costs (pre-assembly stuffing and vendor concessions), than the business case for the plane is excellent.

The E2 needs to sell better for economical MRO work for components custom to that aircraft (e.g., nacelle anti-ice or cabin pressurization). That is due to my opinion on minimum build/overhaul quantities for components/sub assemblies.

The A220 has a high enough production rate, there should be no concern for part production reaching economics of scale. As production increases, there will be part stashes at more and more airports to support the type, reducing the cost of adding the plane to fleets. The production ramp to 6 per month will help (it seems Spirit has all but one shipset per month).

https://seekingalpha.com/article/446514 ... nings-call

What could change this competition is China. Will China impose ARJ-21 and C919 purchases to such a degree both are locked out? Will both win orders? I have no idea, but China could dramatically improve the A220 sales or completely change the economics of scale on the E2.

Lightsaber
 
godsbeloved
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:15 pm

It's quite remarkable how everyone is convinced the A220 is not successful. It is as succesful as the 787 or A350 at the moment. How much development costs Airbus has had to invest for this program to get to the air? 1 euro? So we are now in an initial phase, where production is not profitable? From what I read here in this thread may I conclude the A380 is a succes despite the B787 outselling it sixfold?
 
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Polot
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:22 pm

godsbeloved wrote:
It's quite remarkable how everyone is convinced the A220 is not successful. It is as succesful as the 787 or A350 at the moment. How much development costs Airbus has had to invest for this program to get to the air? 1 euro? So we are now in an initial phase, where production is not profitable? From what I read here in this thread may I conclude the A380 is a succes despite the B787 outselling it sixfold?

The bar for success for a narrowbody is completely different than that of a wide body. And as of right now both the 787 and A350 have outsold and out delivered the A220. Prior to covid both the 787 and A350 were profitable on a production level (they still may be, I don’t know how things changed with the cuts) so I don’t really understand your comment.

I think the A220 is on a clear path towards success. If the program was shut down tomorrow (with all current orders fulfilled) it’s current performance would probably not be considered a success.

If doing comparisons to other aircraft you can’t just ignore production/development costs even if Airbus did not pay for the A220’s. If someone buys the 787 program from Boeing for $1 does that mean the program instantly turns from a poor overall financial success to a phenomenal financial success? No.
Last edited by Polot on Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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keesje
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:26 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
The A220-500 dream - we talked so much about this that it is a waste of time here.


A quick update for you, Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."
 
MIflyer12
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:45 pm

godsbeloved wrote:
So we are now in an initial phase, where production is not profitable?


No, it's more than five years after first delivery, and 13 years after formal launch. If Mirabel is that slow climbing the learning curve... :o

You appear to be ignoring Airbus' 2nd round of investment that brought its stake to 75% ($591 million), the incremental manufacturing investment (Bombardier had been on the hook for $700 million), and accumulated losses. Airbus has probably sunk about $2 Billion.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bombar ... -1.5462182

Johan Tally's link to the Leeham article is useful. One can wonder if Airbus will ever earn a normal profit (let alone 737/A320 duopoly profits) on the A220 program. They're losing $400 million a year on the program: call it $7 million per delivered unit. But Final Assembly is estimated at just 5-8% of total costs. This isn't a case where they can increase volume and significantly decrease variable assembly cost per unit.

As for the OP's thesis, continuing to lose money isn't winning -- not even under French rules of investment.
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:35 pm

sfojvjets wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
OK, the E2 was launched in late 2011; so, 2012-2021 was 205 frames. In the same timeframe, BBD and Airbus Canada sold 514 frames. That's still 2.5:1 ratio for the A220, or 71.5% of the market share; still not a landslide and an a$$ whooping? Not sure what you need then.

Well, that only applies if you consider them to occupy the same market segment which is not the case. The A220-100 is a step above the 190-E2 in terms of capacity, and the -300 js a step above the 195-E2 in terms of capacity. When you compare ranges, the disparity becomes clearer, as the 220 has about 3400-3600 nmi of range compared to the E2's 2600-2000nmi (excluding the 175-E2). This makes it pretty clear that you can't just swap out an A220 for an E2. I think it's somewhat similar to the 787 vs A330neo debate as opposed to the 787 vs A350 debate. You aren't going to see US regional airlines ever consider ordering the 220 over the E2, for example.


Given scope rules, you likely won't see any order either. DL has ordered the 220 for mainline so UA & AA pilots will demand the same. That will likely make the economics tough for both of them.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:52 pm

sfojvjets wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
OK, the E2 was launched in late 2011; so, 2012-2021 was 205 frames. In the same timeframe, BBD and Airbus Canada sold 514 frames. That's still 2.5:1 ratio for the A220, or 71.5% of the market share; still not a landslide and an a$$ whooping? Not sure what you need then.

Well, that only applies if you consider them to occupy the same market segment which is not the case. The A220-100 is a step above the 190-E2 in terms of capacity, and the -300 js a step above the 195-E2 in terms of capacity. When you compare ranges, the disparity becomes clearer, as the 220 has about 3400-3600 nmi of range compared to the E2's 2600-2000nmi (excluding the 175-E2). This makes it pretty clear that you can't just swap out an A220 for an E2. I think it's somewhat similar to the 787 vs A330neo debate as opposed to the 787 vs A350 debate. You aren't going to see US regional airlines ever consider ordering the 220 over the E2, for example.

So, you basically confirmed that the E2 fits the wrong niche and that BBD had it right with the CSeries.
 
sfojvjets
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:13 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
sfojvjets wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
OK, the E2 was launched in late 2011; so, 2012-2021 was 205 frames. In the same timeframe, BBD and Airbus Canada sold 514 frames. That's still 2.5:1 ratio for the A220, or 71.5% of the market share; still not a landslide and an a$$ whooping? Not sure what you need then.

Well, that only applies if you consider them to occupy the same market segment which is not the case. The A220-100 is a step above the 190-E2 in terms of capacity, and the -300 js a step above the 195-E2 in terms of capacity. When you compare ranges, the disparity becomes clearer, as the 220 has about 3400-3600 nmi of range compared to the E2's 2600-2000nmi (excluding the 175-E2). This makes it pretty clear that you can't just swap out an A220 for an E2. I think it's somewhat similar to the 787 vs A330neo debate as opposed to the 787 vs A350 debate. You aren't going to see US regional airlines ever consider ordering the 220 over the E2, for example.

So, you basically confirmed that the E2 fits the wrong niche and that BBD had it right with the CSeries.

"Wrong niche" ??
There's no need to put words in my mouth. I never said that and that's not at all what I believe. You compared the share of 220s sold to the share of E2s sold, but I don't think they occupy the same role in airlines' fleets. When I say "step above," that's not a compliment to the 220, since that's how you seem to understand it as. That is simply a differentiator between the two models: more capacity versus less capacity, more range vs less. Regarding scope issues with the 175E2, frankly, Embraer wasn't thinking... but it's only resulted in more orders for E175-E1s for them.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:46 pm

sfojvjets wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
sfojvjets wrote:
Well, that only applies if you consider them to occupy the same market segment which is not the case. The A220-100 is a step above the 190-E2 in terms of capacity, and the -300 js a step above the 195-E2 in terms of capacity. When you compare ranges, the disparity becomes clearer, as the 220 has about 3400-3600 nmi of range compared to the E2's 2600-2000nmi (excluding the 175-E2). This makes it pretty clear that you can't just swap out an A220 for an E2. I think it's somewhat similar to the 787 vs A330neo debate as opposed to the 787 vs A350 debate. You aren't going to see US regional airlines ever consider ordering the 220 over the E2, for example.

So, you basically confirmed that the E2 fits the wrong niche and that BBD had it right with the CSeries.

"Wrong niche" ??
There's no need to put words in my mouth. I never said that and that's not at all what I believe. You compared the share of 220s sold to the share of E2s sold, but I don't think they occupy the same role in airlines' fleets. When I say "step above," that's not a compliment to the 220, since that's how you seem to understand it as. That is simply a differentiator between the two models: more capacity versus less capacity, more range vs less. Regarding scope issues with the 175E2, frankly, Embraer wasn't thinking... but it's only resulted in more orders for E175-E1s for them.

When your products don't sell (or barely sell) and your closest competition is outselling you 2.5:1, you locked yourself in the wrong niche. When one of your customers replaces its E-jets with A220s (JetBlue) instead of the "natural" replacement (E2s), you got it wrong. When your "old" product line (E-Jets) has a backlog almost as important as your new offering after 10 years of market presence for the latter (133 vs 162 in March 2021), you got it wrong.
 
Skywatcher
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:53 pm

In my humble opinion the programs have diverged with the passage of time so dramatically that the two platforms are no longer comparable.

E2-less risk taken/more cautious investment/more niche market/less innovative technology/less amenable to foreign ownership.
A-220-bet the company/billions in the hole/far more marketable/tech leader/global in every way.

I think Brazil's prickly industrial strategy towards foreigners is a big negative for the E2 program.
Without Boeing EMB will never compete on the same scale as the A-220.
 
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keesje
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 4:12 pm

Skywatcher wrote:
In my humble opinion the programs have diverged with the passage of time so dramatically that the two platforms are no longer comparable.

E2-less risk taken/more cautious investment/more niche market/less innovative technology/less amenable to foreign ownership.
A-220-bet the company/billions in the hole/far more marketable/tech leader/global in every way.

I think Brazil's prickly industrial strategy towards foreigners is a big negative for the E2 program.
Without Boeing EMB will never compete on the same scale as the A-220.


I think many companies have become a bit wary of US investors, there often seems to be a tendency to extract value; customers, suppliers, knowledge, specialists, slowly draining "partners" and use the next crisis to clean out. Maximizing share holder value and reaping the benefit$ ! Embraer probably needs long term benefits too. It's ownership structure doesn't allow long term concerns to be flushed by paying large sums to a small group of individuals.

What would have happened to the CSeries if Boeing had taken over, honestly? https://money.cnn.com/2017/10/16/news/c ... index.html. Embraer was looking from the sidelines and learned a lot.
 
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Polot
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 4:28 pm

Skywatcher wrote:
E2-less risk taken/more cautious investment/more niche market/less innovative technology/less amenable to foreign ownership.
A-220-bet the company/billions in the hole/far more marketable/tech leader/global in every way.

I think Brazil's prickly industrial strategy towards foreigners is a big negative for the E2 program.
Without Boeing EMB will never compete on the same scale as the A-220.

Negative for the program, but better for the company. The C Series may have been a “bet the company” program…but the company lost.

There is a odd tendency for people to just look at C Series/A220 from the moment that Airbus bought it for a $1, and completely ignore its history (and costs!) before then.

Saying the C series was more amenable to foreign investment than the E2 is nonsense, because it ignores the elephant in the room: the reason the C series got foreign investment is because BBD went broke and just about bankrupt. And even then BBD had to basically give it away for literal pennies on the dollar. Prior attempts to get foreign investment actually failed. The E2 has not faced that situation because Embraer is much healthier than BBD was.

keesje wrote:
What would have happened to the CSeries if Boeing had taken over, honestly? https://money.cnn.com/2017/10/16/news/c ... index.html. Embraer was looking from the sidelines and learned a lot.

You realize that Embraer subsequently tried to sell the E2 program to Boeing? And that it was Boeing that backed out of deal after the onset of the covid pandemic, not Embraer? So not really sure what you are trying to insinuate.
 
ScottB
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:42 pm

lightsaber wrote:
If Airbus can reduce production costs (pre-assembly stuffing and vendor concessions), than the business case for the plane is excellent.


Even if they succeed in this exercise, I'd still argue that it could be something of a Pyrrhic victory if A220 sales are made at margins lower than those Airbus can command for the A320neo -- or if Airbus is forced to accept lower margins on A320neos sold due to the internal competition with the A220. Even the idea of "freeing up space" on the A320 lines for A321 sales makes little sense if Airbus can expand A32X production and achieve even greater economies of scale there.

Maybe there's some value in keeping another potential competitor out of the 100-to-150-seat segment -- basically preempting the competitor Bombardier had hoped to become with the C-Series.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:22 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
When your "old" product line (E-Jets) has a backlog almost as important as your new offering after 10 years of market presence for the latter (133 vs 162 in March 2021), you got it wrong.

:redflag:
This needs a little bit of context, best given by breaking those numbers down. Here is what is in Embraer’s Q3 earnings report (it looks like Wikipedia, where you appear to have got your numbers from, is a touch out of date)

E-Jet deliveries and backlog
  • E170 - 191 orders, 191 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E175 - 832 orders, 681 deliveries, backlog: 151
  • E190 - 568 orders, 565 deliveries, backlog: 3
  • E195 - 172 orders, 172 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E-Jet total: 1,763 orders, 1,609 deliveries, backlog: 154

E2 deliveries and backlog
  • E175-E2 - 0 orders, 0 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E190-E2 - 22 orders, 17 deliveries, backlog: 5
  • E195-E2 - 183 orders, 29 deliveries, backlog: 154
  • E2 total: 205 orders, 46 deliveries, backlog 159

The strength of the E-Jet backlog is heavily in the E170/175 area: 151 frames off a total order book of 1,023 (58% of the E-Jet total). Meanwhile the E-2 backlog and order book is completely in the E190/195 area. What they got wrong was offering the E175-E2 which doesn’t comply with US carriers’ scope rules. Given the weight of the new generation of engines, this was always going to be a challenge. Now, with hindsight showing the E175 is likely DOA, should they have optimised the E2 family higher to more accurately track the C-Series/A220 niches? Perhaps, but this likely would have resulted in additional expenditure - for example would they have been forced to move to a new 5-abreast fuselage? At this stage they would have been entirely new aircraft, with much more development cost. Simply saying the E2 overall is a failure because the order backlog of the E-Jet is almost the same misses a lot of nuance.

None of this negates the fact that as of right now the A220 is commanding a market share lead of the E2. But I would be a little cautious in declaring it done at this point. Five years down the track, if the order gulf is still there, then I think you’d be on firmer ground making that declaration. But let’s give them that five years to see what eventuates.

Out of interest and slightly off topic, does anyone know have a breakdown of who the 151 E175 backlog is for? According to Embraer’s Q3 report, 29 are for SkyWest, what about the rest? Also the 3 remaining E190s - are those phantom orders which have yet to be cancelled, or are they still expected to be delivered?

V/F
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:33 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
When your "old" product line (E-Jets) has a backlog almost as important as your new offering after 10 years of market presence for the latter (133 vs 162 in March 2021), you got it wrong.

:redflag:
This needs a little bit of context, best given by breaking those numbers down. Here is what is in Embraer’s Q3 earnings report (it looks like Wikipedia, where you appear to have got your numbers from, is a touch out of date)

E-Jet deliveries and backlog
  • E170 - 191 orders, 191 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E175 - 832 orders, 681 deliveries, backlog: 151
  • E190 - 568 orders, 565 deliveries, backlog: 3
  • E195 - 172 orders, 172 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E-Jet total: 1,763 orders, 1,609 deliveries, backlog: 154

E2 deliveries and backlog
  • E175-E2 - 0 orders, 0 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E190-E2 - 22 orders, 17 deliveries, backlog: 5
  • E195-E2 - 183 orders, 29 deliveries, backlog: 154
  • E2 total: 205 orders, 46 deliveries, backlog 159

The strength of the E-Jet backlog is heavily in the E170/175 area: 151 frames off a total order book of 1,023 (58% of the E-Jet total). Meanwhile the E-2 backlog and order book is completely in the E190/195 area. What they got wrong was offering the E175-E2 which doesn’t comply with US carriers’ scope rules. Given the weight of the new generation of engines, this was always going to be a challenge. Now, with hindsight showing the E175 is likely DOA, should they have optimised the E2 family higher to more accurately track the C-Series/A220 niches? Perhaps, but this likely would have resulted in additional expenditure - for example would they have been forced to move to a new 5-abreast fuselage? At this stage they would have been entirely new aircraft, with much more development cost. Simply saying the E2 overall is a failure because the order backlog of the E-Jet is almost the same misses a lot of nuance.

None of this negates the fact that as of right now the A220 is commanding a market share lead of the E2. But I would be a little cautious in declaring it done at this point. Five years down the track, if the order gulf is still there, then I think you’d be on firmer ground making that declaration. But let’s give them that five years to see what eventuates.

Out of interest and slightly off topic, does anyone know have a breakdown of who the 151 E175 backlog is for? According to Embraer’s Q3 report, 29 are for SkyWest, what about the rest? Also the 3 remaining E190s - are those phantom orders which have yet to be cancelled, or are they still expected to be delivered?

V/F

Why wait 5 years? The E2 has been offered for sale for 10 years now, entered into service in April 2018; its 205 orders were placed in majority before EIS (139 before, 66 after). It's understandable that the order book could be on the lighter side before EIS; but now? How long do we need to wait, just in case it picks up new orders?

The E2 was a low-cost low-risk derivative; it does not garner an order book worthy of its predecessor.
The A220 was a high-cost high-risk venture; it (and other issues at BBD) sunk its manufacturer. It costs Airbus money, but is banking on the future. E2's future is cloudy at best.
 
ABMUC
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:34 pm

It amuses me to read that people think Airbus made the biggest mistake ever or even did not know what they were acquiring. They made the purchase decision not for the fun of it or for good luck to see what happens.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:24 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
When your "old" product line (E-Jets) has a backlog almost as important as your new offering after 10 years of market presence for the latter (133 vs 162 in March 2021), you got it wrong.

:redflag:
This needs a little bit of context, best given by breaking those numbers down. Here is what is in Embraer’s Q3 earnings report (it looks like Wikipedia, where you appear to have got your numbers from, is a touch out of date)

E-Jet deliveries and backlog
  • E170 - 191 orders, 191 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E175 - 832 orders, 681 deliveries, backlog: 151
  • E190 - 568 orders, 565 deliveries, backlog: 3
  • E195 - 172 orders, 172 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E-Jet total: 1,763 orders, 1,609 deliveries, backlog: 154

E2 deliveries and backlog
  • E175-E2 - 0 orders, 0 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E190-E2 - 22 orders, 17 deliveries, backlog: 5
  • E195-E2 - 183 orders, 29 deliveries, backlog: 154
  • E2 total: 205 orders, 46 deliveries, backlog 159

The strength of the E-Jet backlog is heavily in the E170/175 area: 151 frames off a total order book of 1,023 (58% of the E-Jet total). Meanwhile the E-2 backlog and order book is completely in the E190/195 area. What they got wrong was offering the E175-E2 which doesn’t comply with US carriers’ scope rules. Given the weight of the new generation of engines, this was always going to be a challenge. Now, with hindsight showing the E175 is likely DOA, should they have optimised the E2 family higher to more accurately track the C-Series/A220 niches? Perhaps, but this likely would have resulted in additional expenditure - for example would they have been forced to move to a new 5-abreast fuselage? At this stage they would have been entirely new aircraft, with much more development cost. Simply saying the E2 overall is a failure because the order backlog of the E-Jet is almost the same misses a lot of nuance.

None of this negates the fact that as of right now the A220 is commanding a market share lead of the E2. But I would be a little cautious in declaring it done at this point. Five years down the track, if the order gulf is still there, then I think you’d be on firmer ground making that declaration. But let’s give them that five years to see what eventuates.

Out of interest and slightly off topic, does anyone know have a breakdown of who the 151 E175 backlog is for? According to Embraer’s Q3 report, 29 are for SkyWest, what about the rest? Also the 3 remaining E190s - are those phantom orders which have yet to be cancelled, or are they still expected to be delivered?

V/F

Why wait 5 years? The E2 has been offered for sale for 10 years now, entered into service in April 2018; its 205 orders were placed in majority before EIS (139 before, 66 after). It's understandable that the order book could be on the lighter side before EIS; but now? How long do we need to wait, just in case it picks up new orders?

The E2 was a low-cost low-risk derivative; it does not garner an order book worthy of its predecessor.
The A220 was a high-cost high-risk venture; it (and other issues at BBD) sunk its manufacturer. It costs Airbus money, but is banking on the future. E2's future is cloudy at best.

Why 5 years? Because since the aircraft entered service, there was a period of uncertainty around how Embraer would look in the future owing to the proposed Boeing deal, followed by a period of uncertainty around how anything would look in the future owing to COVID-19.

During the last 20 months since the pandemic took hold, from what I can see, the A220 suffered 38 cancellations (Air Canada - 12, Gulf Air - 10, SaudiGulf - 16 - although this last one was in the works pre-COVID), while the E2 did not appear to lose any orders. In 2020, there were 58 orders for the A220 (ALC - 50, Air Senegal - 8), for a net of 20 when cancellations are taken into account. Meanwhile the E2 only took 2 orders - Congo Airways.

In 2021 to date, there have been 30 orders for the E2 (Porter) and 10 orders for the A220 (Ibom Air), plus a Letter of Intent for 25 A220s from ALC which is really not in question, so let’s say 35 orders for the A220. Looking at 2020 and 2021 in isolation, I might draw the conclusion that things were fairly evenly matched, but I think you’d agree those are probably not the most indicative years to be drawing conclusions from. Hopefully 2022 will see a return to less unusual conditions, and then we can really look at how these types perform on the market.

Looking back in history, in the 10 years 1988-1997, Airbus delivered 752 A320s to Boeing’s 1,491 737s in the same period, but as history has shown it would have been quite wrong in 1997 to declare that the 737 had clearly won the battle between the two.

So why 5 years? Because 5 years will give us good data that 1 or 2 years won’t, it was a rounder number than 4 or 6, and it also allows time for decisions around the E175-E2 and A220-500 to play out.

V/F
 
Skywatcher
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:30 pm

Is it possible that the E-2 is losing millions (hundreds of millions?) per year as well given the low number being ordered/produced.
Although EMB overall is likely profitable I doubt the E-2 program itself is.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:48 pm

What may doom the E2 is how it’s significantly heavier than the E1. That basically eliminates the US market for the E275, while Embraer is still taking E175 orders. JetBlue will still need a model to replace its owned E190 fleet…would the E290 work for them even with the BCS3s coming in? Airbus needs to ramp up production of the BCS1/3.
 
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zkojq
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:02 pm

There is a odd tendency for people to just look at C Series/A220 from the moment that Airbus bought it for a $1, and completely ignore its history (and costs!) before then.


Sunk cost fallacy. A dollar Bombardier spent ten years ago developing the program has no effect on Airbus today.

We hear about this quite a lot regarding the 77X program....
 
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Polot
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:22 pm

zkojq wrote:
There is a odd tendency for people to just look at C Series/A220 from the moment that Airbus bought it for a $1, and completely ignore its history (and costs!) before then.


Sunk cost fallacy. A dollar Bombardier spent ten years ago developing the program has no effect on Airbus today.

We hear about this quite a lot regarding the 77X program....

It’s important to keep in mind when comparing to another aircraft program though. You can’t really discuss the A220 vs E2 programs as a whole and ignore the A220 (C series) less than stellar start.

The A220 will be more successful than the E2, both because of its market position and the strength of Airbus. Even Embraer knows this, this is why they were going to sell their commercial jet division to Boeing before Boeing backed out due to pandemic.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:43 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
:redflag:
This needs a little bit of context, best given by breaking those numbers down. Here is what is in Embraer’s Q3 earnings report (it looks like Wikipedia, where you appear to have got your numbers from, is a touch out of date)

E-Jet deliveries and backlog
  • E170 - 191 orders, 191 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E175 - 832 orders, 681 deliveries, backlog: 151
  • E190 - 568 orders, 565 deliveries, backlog: 3
  • E195 - 172 orders, 172 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E-Jet total: 1,763 orders, 1,609 deliveries, backlog: 154

E2 deliveries and backlog
  • E175-E2 - 0 orders, 0 deliveries, backlog: 0
  • E190-E2 - 22 orders, 17 deliveries, backlog: 5
  • E195-E2 - 183 orders, 29 deliveries, backlog: 154
  • E2 total: 205 orders, 46 deliveries, backlog 159

The strength of the E-Jet backlog is heavily in the E170/175 area: 151 frames off a total order book of 1,023 (58% of the E-Jet total). Meanwhile the E-2 backlog and order book is completely in the E190/195 area. What they got wrong was offering the E175-E2 which doesn’t comply with US carriers’ scope rules. Given the weight of the new generation of engines, this was always going to be a challenge. Now, with hindsight showing the E175 is likely DOA, should they have optimised the E2 family higher to more accurately track the C-Series/A220 niches? Perhaps, but this likely would have resulted in additional expenditure - for example would they have been forced to move to a new 5-abreast fuselage? At this stage they would have been entirely new aircraft, with much more development cost. Simply saying the E2 overall is a failure because the order backlog of the E-Jet is almost the same misses a lot of nuance.

None of this negates the fact that as of right now the A220 is commanding a market share lead of the E2. But I would be a little cautious in declaring it done at this point. Five years down the track, if the order gulf is still there, then I think you’d be on firmer ground making that declaration. But let’s give them that five years to see what eventuates.

Out of interest and slightly off topic, does anyone know have a breakdown of who the 151 E175 backlog is for? According to Embraer’s Q3 report, 29 are for SkyWest, what about the rest? Also the 3 remaining E190s - are those phantom orders which have yet to be cancelled, or are they still expected to be delivered?

V/F

Why wait 5 years? The E2 has been offered for sale for 10 years now, entered into service in April 2018; its 205 orders were placed in majority before EIS (139 before, 66 after). It's understandable that the order book could be on the lighter side before EIS; but now? How long do we need to wait, just in case it picks up new orders?

The E2 was a low-cost low-risk derivative; it does not garner an order book worthy of its predecessor.
The A220 was a high-cost high-risk venture; it (and other issues at BBD) sunk its manufacturer. It costs Airbus money, but is banking on the future. E2's future is cloudy at best.

Why 5 years? Because since the aircraft entered service, there was a period of uncertainty around how Embraer would look in the future owing to the proposed Boeing deal, followed by a period of uncertainty around how anything would look in the future owing to COVID-19.

During the last 20 months since the pandemic took hold, from what I can see, the A220 suffered 38 cancellations (Air Canada - 12, Gulf Air - 10, SaudiGulf - 16 - although this last one was in the works pre-COVID), while the E2 did not appear to lose any orders. In 2020, there were 58 orders for the A220 (ALC - 50, Air Senegal - 8), for a net of 20 when cancellations are taken into account. Meanwhile the E2 only took 2 orders - Congo Airways.

In 2021 to date, there have been 30 orders for the E2 (Porter) and 10 orders for the A220 (Ibom Air), plus a Letter of Intent for 25 A220s from ALC which is really not in question, so let’s say 35 orders for the A220. Looking at 2020 and 2021 in isolation, I might draw the conclusion that things were fairly evenly matched, but I think you’d agree those are probably not the most indicative years to be drawing conclusions from. Hopefully 2022 will see a return to less unusual conditions, and then we can really look at how these types perform on the market.

Looking back in history, in the 10 years 1988-1997, Airbus delivered 752 A320s to Boeing’s 1,491 737s in the same period, but as history has shown it would have been quite wrong in 1997 to declare that the 737 had clearly won the battle between the two.

So why 5 years? Because 5 years will give us good data that 1 or 2 years won’t, it was a rounder number than 4 or 6, and it also allows time for decisions around the E175-E2 and A220-500 to play out.

V/F

In 1988, Airbus had been delivering aircraft for less than 15 years (vs 32 years for Boeing jets, prior commercial products were marginal compared to competition) and was delivering its first ever narrowbody, whereas Embraer has been delivering commercial jets (RJs) for 25 years now. You're basically comparing apples to oranges: both fruits, but with different purpose and use.

While still able to sell its products, Embraer appears to have missed the turn in the industry and is in jeopardy of becoming like Bombardier or Sears/Circuit City: a strong contender who misread the market and its evolution and is now done.
BBD tried to save its future by betting the company on the CSeries; it failed to execute the program properly and had to sell everything but the biz jets to remain afloat. If Embraer fails at its E3 turboprop project, I don't think its civilian branch will survive much longer.
 
BonaireFly
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:19 pm

What a lot of you seem to forget is that while the A220 is selling well, the E1 series has been selling well up to the launch of the E2 and has sold in decent numbers even efter the launch. It’s going to take a few years before current E1 operators decide they need replacement. That’s when we’ll see the true prowess of the A220 vs the E2.

Jetblue clearly needed something bigger than the E2195 and so they went with the A220 which probably came with nice discount.

Meanwhile by launching the new Embraer NGTP and the Energia concepts, they are essentially locking in on the sub 100 seats market where Bombardier failed and ATR has been slow to innovate.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:33 pm

BonaireFly wrote:
What a lot of you seem to forget is that while the A220 is selling well, the E1 series has been selling well up to the launch of the E2 and has sold in decent numbers even efter the launch. It’s going to take a few years before current E1 operators decide they need replacement. That’s when we’ll see the true prowess of the A220 vs the E2.

Jetblue clearly needed something bigger than the E2195 and so they went with the A220 which probably came with nice discount.

Meanwhile by launching the new Embraer NGTP and the Energia concepts, they are essentially locking in on the sub 100 seats market where Bombardier failed and ATR has been slow to innovate.

And the fact that the E1 kept selling well (at the expense of the E2) is also an indication that the E2 is not the best thing since sliced bread that it should have been.
"Natural" replacements of the E1 should be the E2; that some airlines order the A220, or keep ordering the E1, does not bode well for the E2.
 
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keesje
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:10 pm

The E2 has no competition 80-120 seats. Not now & not this decade.

Thousands aging Embraer E1, 717, F100, BAE146, 737-700, A319, CRJ-700/-900s around.

No competition often helps medium / longer term..

Image
Embraer.com
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 18, 2021 3:53 am

BonaireFly wrote:
What a lot of you seem to forget is that while the A220 is selling well, the E1 series has been selling well up to the launch of the E2 and has sold in decent numbers even efter the launch. It’s going to take a few years before current E1 operators decide they need replacement. That’s when we’ll see the true prowess of the A220 vs the E2.

Jetblue clearly needed something bigger than the E2195 and so they went with the A220 which probably came with nice discount.

Meanwhile by launching the new Embraer NGTP and the Energia concepts, they are essentially locking in on the sub 100 seats market where Bombardier failed and ATR has been slow to innovate.

JetBlue was the clear test case as both the BCS3 and E295 were shown to B6 management. The latter doesn’t have true transcontinental range, which both B6 and AC require. However, there are airfields too small for the BCS3 or even the BCS1. I agree with you on the 76-100 seat market…and US carriers (besides 3M, also operating Amazon AT75s) have to reconsider turboprops. The AT76 or DH8D could work on some very short hops as a right-sized plane.
 
Capricorn
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 18, 2021 4:10 am

keesje wrote:
The E2 has no competition 80-120 seats. Not now & not this decade.

Thousands aging Embraer E1, 717, F100, BAE146, 737-700, A319, CRJ-700/-900s around.

No competition often helps medium / longer term..

Image
Embraer.com


I agree. I cant see a A or B getting into that segment anytime soon and the only other Western competitor, the MRJ Spacejet does not seem to get off the ground. The 80 to 120 Seat category seems to become a niche segment, but as long as there is only 1 manufacturer no problems of oversuply will arise.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14733
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 18, 2021 6:59 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
However, there are airfields too small for the BCS3 or even the BCS1..


yes, but those are also too small for the E2. Its not like they have some stellar field performance.

best regards
Thomas
 
Jomar777
Posts: 673
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:41 am

keesje wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
The A220-500 dream - we talked so much about this that it is a waste of time here.


A quick update for you, Airbus CCO Christian Schrerer: "A220-500 will come after profitability. The market is pressuring us to develop it."


That might mean "next year" or "never" - depending on which side you are on... They will keep saying this or that all the time... might be as close as Boeing's B737 replacement as far as I am concerned.

The project initially might exits in some shape or form. I believe that BBD had plans for a CS-500. But Airbus will not cannibalise their own offering on the back of it... even more now that Boeing is down...

Just dream on a bit longer
 
Jomar777
Posts: 673
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: A220 vs E-195E2 in 2021, market battle finally won by Airbus ?

Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:50 am

WayexTDI wrote:
sfojvjets wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
OK, the E2 was launched in late 2011; so, 2012-2021 was 205 frames. In the same timeframe, BBD and Airbus Canada sold 514 frames. That's still 2.5:1 ratio for the A220, or 71.5% of the market share; still not a landslide and an a$$ whooping? Not sure what you need then.

Well, that only applies if you consider them to occupy the same market segment which is not the case. The A220-100 is a step above the 190-E2 in terms of capacity, and the -300 js a step above the 195-E2 in terms of capacity. When you compare ranges, the disparity becomes clearer, as the 220 has about 3400-3600 nmi of range compared to the E2's 2600-2000nmi (excluding the 175-E2). This makes it pretty clear that you can't just swap out an A220 for an E2. I think it's somewhat similar to the 787 vs A330neo debate as opposed to the 787 vs A350 debate. You aren't going to see US regional airlines ever consider ordering the 220 over the E2, for example.

So, you basically confirmed that the E2 fits the wrong niche and that BBD had it right with the CSeries.


No, BBD did not. The C-Series program sank the company. The Program (not BBD) was lucky to get a second investor (Airbus) which decided to invest (at a still big loss) on the program otherwise, it would not have survived.

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