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JohanTally
Posts: 531
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:19 am

sxf24 wrote:
I don’t think a 787-10 that flies 7,500nm is possible.

Not without a 6 wheel bogey and larger wing.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1498
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:27 am

JohanTally wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
I don’t think a 787-10 that flies 7,500nm is possible.

Not without a 6 wheel bogey and larger wing.


I guess that’s why we haven’t seen it. New wing = new airplane
 
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77west
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:33 am

sxf24 wrote:
How much more does the 777C weigh than the 777-300ER? I keep seeing claims that it’s much heavier, but I’m struggling to understand how that reconciles with a larger airframe and lower thrust engines than the -300ER.
Larger airframe, larger engines, larger wing, all of this points to weight.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:02 am

sxf24 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
I don’t think a 787-10 that flies 7,500nm is possible.

Not without a 6 wheel bogey and larger wing.


I guess that’s why we haven’t seen it. New wing = new airplane


Just to remind you that Boeing had to develop an all-new, CFRP wing for the B777X. Boeing could have done the same with a B787-10X, as well as adapting 6-wheel main bogies to handle higher weights. And a variant of the GEn9x engine could have been used, too. I think not choosing to further develop the B787-10 was a missed opportunity, which could have been more successful Boeing.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:10 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
Not without a 6 wheel bogey and larger wing.


I guess that’s why we haven’t seen it. New wing = new airplane


Just to remind you that Boeing had to develop an all-new, CFRP wing for the B777X. Boeing could have done the same with a B787-10X, as well as adapting 6-wheel main bogies to handle higher weights. And a variant of the GEn9x engine could have been used, too. I think not choosing to further develop the B787-10 was a missed opportunity, which could have been more successful Boeing.


This is an excellent point. Boeing got burned on 764 investment previously, and their 777W conquered the world previously. Kind of like Airbus wanted to duplicate the 744's success with the A380. If only we could repeat the past.

But you can't repeat the past.

I think the market is signaling that the 777X is not a compelling product over the A350. What contests does the 777X win that the A350 will lose? Real >10 frame fleet jobs? The revenue difference must not be compelling. The A35K is already pretty big. The Boeing is hard pressed to beat it.
 
sxf24
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:37 am

77west wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
How much more does the 777C weigh than the 777-300ER? I keep seeing claims that it’s much heavier, but I’m struggling to understand how that reconciles with a larger airframe and lower thrust engines than the -300ER.
Larger airframe, larger engines, larger wing, all of this points to weight.


The frame is larger, but do we know if a larger carbon fiber wing weighs more than a smaller aluminum wing? Same for engines: why would a lower thrust engine weigh more than a higher one?

Granted, it’s entirely likely the OEW of a 777X is more than a 777-300ER. But it’s a bigger plane that burns less fuel. If airlines picked the plane that burned the least amount of fuel, we’d fly everywhere on CRJs (per trip) or A380s (per seat).
 
sxf24
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:38 am

LCDFlight wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

I guess that’s why we haven’t seen it. New wing = new airplane


Just to remind you that Boeing had to develop an all-new, CFRP wing for the B777X. Boeing could have done the same with a B787-10X, as well as adapting 6-wheel main bogies to handle higher weights. And a variant of the GEn9x engine could have been used, too. I think not choosing to further develop the B787-10 was a missed opportunity, which could have been more successful Boeing.


This is an excellent point. Boeing got burned on 764 investment previously, and their 777W conquered the world previously. Kind of like Airbus wanted to duplicate the 744's success with the A380. If only we could repeat the past.

But you can't repeat the past.

I think the market is signaling that the 777X is not a compelling product over the A350. What contests does the 777X win that the A350 will lose? Real >10 frame fleet jobs? The revenue difference must not be compelling. The A35K is already pretty big. The Boeing is hard pressed to beat it.


The 777X has more orders than the A350-1000.
 
JohanTally
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:15 am

LCDFlight wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

I guess that’s why we haven’t seen it. New wing = new airplane


Just to remind you that Boeing had to develop an all-new, CFRP wing for the B777X. Boeing could have done the same with a B787-10X, as well as adapting 6-wheel main bogies to handle higher weights. And a variant of the GEn9x engine could have been used, too. I think not choosing to further develop the B787-10 was a missed opportunity, which could have been more successful Boeing.


This is an excellent point. Boeing got burned on 764 investment previously, and their 777W conquered the world previously. Kind of like Airbus wanted to duplicate the 744's success with the A380. If only we could repeat the past.

But you can't repeat the past.

I think the market is signaling that the 777X is not a compelling product over the A350. What contests does the 777X win that the A350 will lose? Real >10 frame fleet jobs? The revenue difference must not be compelling. The A35K is already pretty big. The Boeing is hard pressed to beat it.

Look at the A35K order book half of remaining 110 or so on order are on very shaky ground. Yemenia, StarLux, Iran Air, and Asiana may never get delivered and Etihad at this point probably won't take all the remaining 15 frames. Until a sizeable amount of 77Ws reach retirement age we won't find out which large twinjet will carry the torch going forward.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 6:17 am

I think that the re-engine of the A350 and 787 is what kills this project in the medium term.It depends on when those two programs are launched.
 
Articuno
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 6:19 am

JohanTally wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

Just to remind you that Boeing had to develop an all-new, CFRP wing for the B777X. Boeing could have done the same with a B787-10X, as well as adapting 6-wheel main bogies to handle higher weights. And a variant of the GEn9x engine could have been used, too. I think not choosing to further develop the B787-10 was a missed opportunity, which could have been more successful Boeing.


This is an excellent point. Boeing got burned on 764 investment previously, and their 777W conquered the world previously. Kind of like Airbus wanted to duplicate the 744's success with the A380. If only we could repeat the past.

But you can't repeat the past.

I think the market is signaling that the 777X is not a compelling product over the A350. What contests does the 777X win that the A350 will lose? Real >10 frame fleet jobs? The revenue difference must not be compelling. The A35K is already pretty big. The Boeing is hard pressed to beat it.

Look at the A35K order book half of remaining 110 or so on order are on very shaky ground. Yemenia, StarLux, Iran Air, and Asiana may never get delivered and Etihad at this point probably won't take all the remaining 15 frames. Until a sizeable amount of 77Ws reach retirement age we won't find out which large twinjet will carry the torch going forward.

Yemenia doesn't have A35K on order.
Surely the 16 on order for Iran Air are unlikely, 8 each for StarLux and Asiana are uncertain, but the remaining 77 orders are firm. Etihad will withdraw the entire 77W fleet this year so they're definitely committed to the remaining 15.
77/109 = 70.6%
 
Articuno
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 6:25 am

sxf24 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

Just to remind you that Boeing had to develop an all-new, CFRP wing for the B777X. Boeing could have done the same with a B787-10X, as well as adapting 6-wheel main bogies to handle higher weights. And a variant of the GEn9x engine could have been used, too. I think not choosing to further develop the B787-10 was a missed opportunity, which could have been more successful Boeing.


This is an excellent point. Boeing got burned on 764 investment previously, and their 777W conquered the world previously. Kind of like Airbus wanted to duplicate the 744's success with the A380. If only we could repeat the past.

But you can't repeat the past.

I think the market is signaling that the 777X is not a compelling product over the A350. What contests does the 777X win that the A350 will lose? Real >10 frame fleet jobs? The revenue difference must not be compelling. The A35K is already pretty big. The Boeing is hard pressed to beat it.


The 777X has more orders than the A350-1000.

2 variants vs 1? Besides, A35K and 778 are the direct competitors in terms of capacity, and boeing chose not to disclose the order book of each variant.
 
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PolarRoute
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:42 am

I see why one would call 777X an another A380; a VLA with a fair number or orders, from blue chip customers, but does not provide the unit cost advantage crucial to competing out the smaller planes.

With the estimated OEW taking up to ~52% of its MTOW, it loses out to the A35K, whose DOW is about ~47% that of MTOW, in terms of structural efficiency. Weight is going to be a problem for the 777X.

And besides, when looking at a VLA's order book, the order count at launch and its customer base shouldn't be considered a means of market outlook for the said VLA, IMO. VLA, being a very large aircraft, will have those blue chip customers in its order book, not because it is such a sound plane, but they are the only ones with the resource and network needed to operate the VLAs efficiently enough. So naturally, they'll have big names logged in the books, but that's it. No one, with the exception of EK, who seem to be struggling with all the capacity anyways, needs multiple dozens of large guage aircraft: bigger guage, less frequency; more frequency, smaller guage. This makes harder for VLAs to garner any top-ups in substantial amount, getting them stuck in the initial figure of orders and hindering the sustained longevity of the program.

Yes, one can argue that the 777X is not too big of a difference from the well-established 77W. That may be true, depending on the configuration, but what killed off the A380 was not solely the size of itself. Its smaller competitor, the 77W, offered a compelling economics with little difference in CASM. The same runs true, at least in my and some other posters' view, for the 777X as well. The A35K offers compelling economics, without the need of upguaging in pursuit of the CASM.

And the delay can't help either.

So all in all, three critical aspects for the 777X that parallel the A380: seemingly sound initial order book that is potent to dry up, significant delay, and most crucially, the existence of a more competent little brother.
 
Scotron12
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:16 am

A bit far to equate the B779 with the A380. EK has many A380s in a 2 class total of 615 seats. Even adding Y+ they will still have at least 500 if not more on those.

Was mentioned on the EK thread, EK will have 350 seats on their 779s. Huge difference. Heck, even BA will only configure their 779s with 325 seats, 6 fewer than BAs A350s!
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:28 am

I’ve heard someone say the A350-1000s sales is not reflective of its potential sales.

The moment you change that to 777-9. All hell breaks loose.

I was reading an old thread about whether BA would order the 779 back in late 2018. That was a funny thread to read because so many people said “they will not, they have the 35K, they’ll just exercise more options. They don’t need the 779”

There are so many unknowns and you can’t speak so definitively
 
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Taxi645
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:30 am

Why the A380 failed; CASM vs. frequency and yield dilution.
The A380 failed because it’s CASM advantage was too small to compensate for it’s frequency and yield disadvantage. What we can learn from this regarding the 777X is that it needs sufficient CASM advantage as well vs. the 787 and A350. Will it? Hard to tell at this stage, but sales don’t seem to indicate much confidence from the market.

The elephant in the room; the A350 ultrafan.
That’s right, the 777x might just have enough CASM advantage to have a niche against the current A350, but don’t think it will have any chance against a ultrafan 280t “A350-950/1000” or a 319t “350-1050/1100”. The ultrafan A350 was officially delayed (yet we still hear about further developments). Rather strange when the whole world is screaming climate change and kerosine taxation/SAF costs will skyrocket fuel bills in the future. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ultrafan A350 was delayed to keep Boeing on track with the 777X. I reckon Airbus much rather faces a 777X they can comfortably compete with with their current A350 and wipe out with an A350 ultrafan, than having to face a much more efficient HGW 787NG variant in the future. If they had officially pushed on with the A350 ultrafan, Boeing possibly would’ve cancelled their 777X program and choose to accelerate further 787 development instead.

The better Boeing answer: 787NG
The A350 has one (small) disadvantage: it’s spanloading within the 65m is a bit high for future standards and with ultrafan efficiency that weight would also be leading to range that nobody needs. That’s where the 787NG comes in. It can use the ultrafan generation efficiency to get sufficient payload-range with lower weights and thus lower induced drag than the A350. An ultrafan generation ~270t 787-9ER/787-10ER and ~300t 787-11ER would very effectively compete with the A350. Also giving Boeing much more economy of scale and flexibility in their production as everything could come from the same production line.

Just like the MAX prevented a better single aisle competitor, the 777X is keeping Boeing from launching a better A350 competitor in my view.
Last edited by Taxi645 on Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:47 am

Taxi645 wrote:
Why the A380 failed; CASM vs. frequency and yield dilution.
The A380 failed because it’s CASM advantage was too small to compensate for it’s frequency and yield disadvantage. What we can learn from this regarding the 777X is that it needs sufficient CASM advantage as well vs. the 787 and A350. Will it? Hard to tell at this stage, but sales don’t seem to indicate much confidence from the market.

The elephant in the room; the A350 ultrafan.
That’s right, the 777x might just have enough CASM advantage to have a niche against the current A350, but don’t think it will have any chance against a ultrafan 280t “A350-950/1000” or a 319t “350-1050/1100”. The ultrafan A350 was officially delayed (yet we still here about further developments). Rather strange when the whole world is screaming climate change and kerosine taxation/SAF costs will skyrocket fuel bills in the future. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ultrafan A350 was delayed to keep Boeing on track with the 777X. I reckon Airbus much rather faces a 777X they can’t comfortably compete with with their current A350 and wipe out with an A350 ultrafan, than having to face a much more efficient HGW 787 variant in the future. If they had officially pushed on with the A350 ultrafan, Boeing possibly would’ve cancelled their 777X program and choose to accelerate further 787 development instead.

The better Boeing answer: 787NG
The A350 has one disadvantage: it’s spanloading within the 65m is a bit high for future standards and with ultrafan efficiency that weight would also be leading to range that nobody needs. That’s where the 787NG comes in. It can use the ultrafan genration efficiency to get sufficient payload-range with lower weights and thus lower induced drag than the A350.
A ultrafan generation ~270t 787-9ER/787-10ER and ~300t 787-11ER would very effectively compete with the A350.

Just like the MAX prevented a better singleseater competitor the 777X is keeping Boeing from launching a better A350 competitor in my view.

But you’re talking about ultrafan that’s not till 2030 launch at the earliest

Talk about alternative solutions now.

I think Boeing would’ve maybe pitched this idea to customers because it would’ve been cheaper. Especially just to make the -10 even more capable, maybe stretch it even more, give it 3 wheels, give it a nice engine pip with GE9X technology but I can bet you someone like STC said no to that idea because it’s the 787, he can’t have the interiors that he wants. Bear in mind at the time he had no interest in the 787. They wanted a 777NEO, the gulf carriers were very clear on that. They liked everything about the 777. They just wanted a more efficient version. Also seeing how the 87 was playing out at the time I don’t think they were that hot on it.

If Boeing really feels like they’re going to lose the match they should beef up the 78X more than they plan to. They won’t do it because it will cannibalise the X but it’s a way out of the X doesn’t work

And also freight! Let’s not forget that. 777 would’ve been an easier freighter to build than the 87 (at least from what we are told)
 
FluidFlow
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:53 am

I think the real reason the 777X struggles is that lessors got burned with the 380s fast loss of value. If lessors expect that re-engined versions of the 787 and 350 (that are expected to hit the market in the 2030s) reduce the CASM of the 787 and 350 even more the 777X will lose a lot of value and a second placement after 12 years (what would be in 2036) will be very hard.

The delay of the 777X is its biggest problem, the time window where it will be deemed an efficient aircraft is just getting smaller and smaller. It does not help either that it is heavy especially down the road as the smaller newer gen aircraft become more capable.

On top of this, the 777W sold above its capability exactly like the 747 did for the sole reason it was the only real option that provided enough range for a lot of missions. In 2005 all you could get to have high pay load on long routes were the 77W and the 346(343) and the 77W was so much better. Yes the 380 was almost ready but for many airlines that was way to big. So you either took the 77W or were not able to offer certain routes. This will lead to many airlines right sizing their long haul fleet with 787s and 350s when the 77Ws come up for replacements.

Boeing did a great job with the 77W opening up long haul routes with an affordable aircraft and they re-did that again with the 787 opening up even smaller long haul routes. Hence both aircraft sold so well. Now 20 years later there are options to replace the 77W with the right size aircraft that actually fits the profile that was needed 20 years ago but just not available.

We should see the story of the mighty 747 and how it had amazing range capabilities but they came at the draw back of being just too big (too much capacity). But if you wanted to fly far you needed a 747. The moment smaller aircraft were able to serve the long range routes with the right capacity the 747 was done. I predict the same will happen with the 777 to a lesser extent. More airlines will still need the massive capacity but everything below the biggest airlines (which are the ones that have the X on order, and even they will have smaller 777 fleets in the future) will replace their 777s with 787s and A350s just because the excess capacity the 777s offer is not needed anymore to offer long range routes.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:02 am

Opus99 wrote:
But you’re talking about ultrafan that’s not till 2030 launch at the earliest


I suppose you mean EIS 2030 at the earliest? Likely, although 2028-2029 EIS would seem completely technically feasible at this stage. If the 777X would only be competitive from 2023/2024 EIS to 2028/2030 (A350 ultrafan EIS) that would be an awfully short run and a very investment as well.

Opus99 wrote:
I think Boeing would’ve maybe pitched this idea to customers because it would’ve been cheaper. Especially just to make the -10 even more capable, maybe stretch it even more, give it 3 wheels, give it a nice engine pip with GE9X technology but I can bet you someone like STC said no to that idea because it’s the 787, he can’t have the interiors that he wants. Bear in mind at the time he had no interest in the 787. They wanted a 777NEO, the gulf carriers were very clear on that. They liked everything about the 777. They just wanted a more efficient version. Also seeing how the 87 was playing out at the time I don’t think they were that hot on it.


I think economic laws are a much better indication of what airlines will buy than airliner CEO talk. The A380 didn't not fair well based on what STC wanted did it? ;)


Opus99 wrote:
If Boeing really feels like they’re going to lose the match they should beef up the 78X more than they plan to. They won’t do it because it will cannibalise the X but it’s a way out of the X doesn’t work


I reckon it would work and sticking to the 777X plan is the same mistake Airbus made with the A340-500/600 or sticking with a 600t capable A380 platform in stead of optimizing it at 500t.

Opus99 wrote:
And also freight! Let’s not forget that. 777 would’ve been an easier freighter to build than the 87 (at least from what we are told)


The freighter market is just a sideshow. nice to add some frames and bridge the FAL to a new generation passenger version. In the numbers it's just a niche.
 
JonesNL
Posts: 540
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:06 am

flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Still correct.

A 77W with the same cabin density can't actually fly 7285nm but if its MTOW was increased (to about 355t) it would burn 347kg/pax

who knows what they promised. Maybe I am wrong on the fuel burn and its really low but to square that circle the payload would be low too...

Fred

I’d rather wait for Boeing to release the data

Thanks


Fair enough. Personally I'm happy with Boeing saying it was going to be 20% better, then releasing specs that suggest it will be 20% better and now both Boeing and GE saying it is achieving 20% better.

Fred


Hi Fred or Opus, do we know how much more efficient a 787-9 or A350-9/10 is vs. a 777W?

From that we can probably deduce if the 20% number is enough to hold its own...
 
JonesNL
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:18 am

Slightly off topic that might have impact on 777x future; 10 abreast A350 with 17"inch seats might be in the works with possible sculpted sidewalls.
https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2021/11/1 ... 3s-happen/

This could change the economics quite a lot or it could be a dud only usable for (U)LCC's. But seeing that they are pitching to Etihad seems to be contractionary to that notion...
 
TravelQ
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:41 am

If we go back five plus years, Randy's Journal discussed the size of future aircraft using Japan as an example. He noted, where the tarmacs of the 1990's were filled with 747's, this quickly changed to tarmacs full of smaller 777's in the early 2000's. He noted at the time these 777's were quickly being replaced with 787's.

If I remember the thrust if the blog correctly, his argument revolved around advancements in technology influencing shifts in market.

As such, it is probably fair to suggest the size of the 777 segment in the market is a lot smaller than it was in the planes glory days.

For those using lack of sales as an indicator of its market acceptance should consider the wide body market is now covered with more aircraft, all of which directly durectly compete with it.

I wouldn't use slow sales in a post covid19 environment as an indicator of the planes market acceptance.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1498
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:02 pm

Articuno wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

This is an excellent point. Boeing got burned on 764 investment previously, and their 777W conquered the world previously. Kind of like Airbus wanted to duplicate the 744's success with the A380. If only we could repeat the past.

But you can't repeat the past.

I think the market is signaling that the 777X is not a compelling product over the A350. What contests does the 777X win that the A350 will lose? Real >10 frame fleet jobs? The revenue difference must not be compelling. The A35K is already pretty big. The Boeing is hard pressed to beat it.


The 777X has more orders than the A350-1000.

2 variants vs 1? Besides, A35K and 778 are the direct competitors in terms of capacity, and boeing chose not to disclose the order book of each variant.


Model mix for 777X is not on the website, but it is pretty clear in each announcement what model is being ordered. What’s ironic, is your argument validates the 8X, which everyone has been dismissing.
 
airbazar
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:04 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Really not an interesting discussion as the 777X is still two years away from EIS. Until real world performance numbers come out comments made are pure speculation. As the OP is already calling the 777X "the Boeing A380" we clearly know where his bias lies. Personally, I will wait for the performance data before for I make up my mind.

Even the performance data is irrelevant if the airlines have no use for it. The A380 had the best performance of any airplane on the market and airlines still couldn't find use for it. At the end of the day an airline needs to fill the seats and belly of the plane to achieve said performance. At least with the A380 all it was needed was passengers but with the 779 huge ratio of cargo space to passenger at a time when checked bag fees are causing passengers to carry less luggage, if the airline can't fill that space with cargo whey will be flying a lot of "air" around.

HTCone wrote:
One thing in the 77X's favour, like the 777 "classic" and 350 is it can carry large amounts of freight, which can make otherwise unviable routes viable. The 380 can't do that.

Which can be both a blessing and a curse.

sxf24 wrote:
The 777X has more orders than the A350-1000.

It's not a reasonable comparison because the A350-1000 is a niche aircraft in a large family that is selling while the 777X is the entire family given that no one is buying 772's and 773's anymore. Unless I'm reading the data wrong, Boeing as zero unfilled orders for any 772 or 773 at this moment. This is not just a problem for the 777X, it's a problem for Boeing in that entire segment. Having said that, it's not a big problem because it is a niche segment. But, remember when the 757 was a niche segment too? How did that turn out?
 
sxf24
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:04 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Slightly off topic that might have impact on 777x future; 10 abreast A350 with 17"inch seats might be in the works with possible sculpted sidewalls.
https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2021/11/1 ... 3s-happen/

This could change the economics quite a lot or it could be a dud only usable for (U)LCC's. But seeing that they are pitching to Etihad seems to be contractionary to that notion...


A 10 abreast A350 that is comparable in comfort to 787 or 777 is a game changer. With A350 fuselage curve, this will be brutal for window seats and make passengers wish for a 10 abreast 777-300ER. Airlines will still buy it.
 
trent768
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:08 pm

TWFlyGuy wrote:
To me, the problem with the 380 wasn't that the market went away it's that it consolidated into one (1) carrier (Emirates). The expected plan was for BA, LH, AF, KL to order for conx over their hubs to the middle east & India. It was also expecting to se Qantas and Asian carriers to order more significantly but Emirates cornered the market there too so those carriers never needed the aircraft. If you're already flying 777's, you likely have markets that the 777X will work with.

Interesting take and it made so much sense. Nobody expected that EK would become such a big airline like it is today. I think Airbus was also didn't expect that by selling so many A380 to EK, that it would basically erase the possibility of selling them to other airlines.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:50 pm

airbazar wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
The 777X has more orders than the A350-1000.

It's not a reasonable comparison because the A350-1000 is a niche aircraft in a large family that is selling while the 777X is the entire family given that no one is buying 772's and 773's anymore. Unless I'm reading the data wrong, Boeing as zero unfilled orders for any 772 or 773 at this moment. This is not just a problem for the 777X, it's a problem for Boeing in that entire segment. Having said that, it's not a big problem because it is a niche segment. But, remember when the 757 was a niche segment too? How did that turn out?

You seem to be forgetting that the bestselling widebody currently is the 777F. And your “large family” of which the A350 is a member also has two members. The point is that the 779 and A350-1000 are in fact direct competitors. And while the A350-1000 has been for sale for several years longer than the 777X the latter has had three times as many orders. But neither has enough to make the program successful, and until travel returns to normal (and probably for some time after that) no significant orders for either are likely. And by then we should have some reliable figures for what the 779’s performance really will be. So it is impossible at this time to determine the ultimate success or failure of either one.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:50 pm

First of all let me just say, “respect” it’s great to see that we can still debate a contention issue here without the tread being locked.

Of the many interesting responses a few stand out as they seem to follow a theme, so I think they are worth addressing furthers.

First of all. CASM. This is the true “golden calf” of arguments to me, in that it is entirely false. The A380 at full capacity is the CASM king, and yet it still didn’t sell. For LCC’s CASM maters, but for the legacy big carriers which have ordered the 77X itis not so much CASM which matters but the actual cabin hard product that allows them to upsell tickets.

So should the 77X best its targets and become the most efficient way to get 400 people from A to B, then although a great achievement, I still don’t see anyone ordering it. For the exact same reason no one ordered the A380 in a high-density configuration – There is no demand for it.

So we are back to what I stated within the initial post, the only potential customers for the 77X are airlines with very congested routes or those which wish to make a statement with a “flag ship” product to sell seats. The EXACT same market as the A380 ended up in.

What I also find telling to the desperation of the 77X program is the fact Boeing are considering a freighter version even before the EIS of the passenger variant. Typically (with the exception of the 747) Boeing has targeted passenger aircraft first as there is more money to be made in that market. Later a freighter would be made available in order to keep the line busy.

The fact that they are already scrambling to offer the 77XF to garner a few more orders before a potential A350F “eats their lunch” speaks to how bad the situation really is. Let me be clear, I have no doubt that the 77XF will be a fantastic freighter, and it will dominate the market, however, the fact that there is going to be an A350F will force Boeing to offer competitive pricing. They can no longer rely on freighter sales to make the program profitable.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:59 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
First of all let me just say, “respect” it’s great to see that we can still debate a contention issue here without the tread being locked.

Of the many interesting responses a few stand out as they seem to follow a theme, so I think they are worth addressing furthers.

First of all. CASM. This is the true “golden calf” of arguments to me, in that it is entirely false. The A380 at full capacity is the CASM king, and yet it still didn’t sell. For LCC’s CASM maters, but for the legacy big carriers which have ordered the 77X itis not so much CASM which matters but the actual cabin hard product that allows them to upsell tickets.

So should the 77X best its targets and become the most efficient way to get 400 people from A to B, then although a great achievement, I still don’t see anyone ordering it. For the exact same reason no one ordered the A380 in a high-density configuration – There is no demand for it.

So we are back to what I stated within the initial post, the only potential customers for the 77X are airlines with very congested routes or those which wish to make a statement with a “flag ship” product to sell seats. The EXACT same market as the A380 ended up in.

What I also find telling to the desperation of the 77X program is the fact Boeing are considering a freighter version even before the EIS of the passenger variant. Typically (with the exception of the 747) Boeing has targeted passenger aircraft first as there is more money to be made in that market. Later a freighter would be made available in order to keep the line busy.

The fact that they are already scrambling to offer the 77XF to garner a few more orders before a potential A350F “eats their lunch” speaks to how bad the situation really is. Let me be clear, I have no doubt that the 77XF will be a fantastic freighter, and it will dominate the market, however, the fact that there is going to be an A350F will force Boeing to offer competitive pricing. They can no longer rely on freighter sales to make the program profitable.

I think you are missing the point as to why Boeing is talking about the 777XF now. They have held almost a monopoly on new-build freighters for decades, and they do not want to lose it. It was Airbus who launched the A350F in an attempt to break into that market. It is very unlikely that anyone would order the old 777F over the A350F. So Boeing had to respond. The point is that with COVID having dried up sales for ALL widebodies except freighters, and the end of that drought is not in sight, the game has changed. And both Airbus and Boeing are acting accordingly.
 
souptaco
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:10 pm

What might an A380 go for today? Are they basically part-out value?
 
airbazar
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:50 pm

SEPilot wrote:
airbazar wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
The 777X has more orders than the A350-1000.

It's not a reasonable comparison because the A350-1000 is a niche aircraft in a large family that is selling while the 777X is the entire family given that no one is buying 772's and 773's anymore. Unless I'm reading the data wrong, Boeing as zero unfilled orders for any 772 or 773 at this moment. This is not just a problem for the 777X, it's a problem for Boeing in that entire segment. Having said that, it's not a big problem because it is a niche segment. But, remember when the 757 was a niche segment too? How did that turn out?

You seem to be forgetting that the bestselling widebody currently is the 777F. And your “large family” of which the A350 is a member also has two members. The point is that the 779 and A350-1000 are in fact direct competitors.

The 777F sold 3 more frames in 2021 than the 767F, and the A350 is a family of 3 now :)
But this is a thread about passenger models so I'll stick to that. I also never said they're not direct competitors. They very much are. The thread as I understand it is about whether the 777X has staying power or will it fizzle out like the A380. Not about whether the 777X is better than the A35K (We've had plenty of those threads). The A380 also had a lot more orders and customers, initially but here we are assuming that every 777X will actually be delivered. My point was that if the 777X doesn't sell then Boeing is out of that market segment entirely. It may be the case that Boeing needs the 777X to sell more than Airbus needs the A35K to sell. Or maybe both need it equally, who knows.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:52 pm

Prost wrote:
I think another similarity between the 777X and the A380 is that the two largest aviation markets, China and the US, haven’t embraced either frame. Yes, CZ bought 5 A380s, but that isn’t much for a population of their size.


United was late to the B77W game and AA was also a late B77W order. The issue will be airlines in Europe and Japan, but JL already made its first ever Airbus order.
 
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PolarRoute
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:57 pm

JonesNL wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I’d rather wait for Boeing to release the data

Thanks


Fair enough. Personally I'm happy with Boeing saying it was going to be 20% better, then releasing specs that suggest it will be 20% better and now both Boeing and GE saying it is achieving 20% better.

Fred


Hi Fred or Opus, do we know how much more efficient a 787-9 or A350-9/10 is vs. a 777W?

From that we can probably deduce if the 20% number is enough to hold its own...


The A35K is a lot more efficient that the 77W. It burns 20-25% less fuel carrying similar payload depending on stage lengths.

However, one needs to know what Boeing really means by '20% more efficient'... Is it per seat basis or raw fuel consumption? Has it been normalized for payload or not? What kind of boundaries/assumptions are they using for both the -9 and -300er?
Last edited by PolarRoute on Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:00 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
First of all. CASM. This is the true “golden calf” of arguments to me, in that it is entirely false. The A380 at full capacity is the CASM king, and yet it still didn’t sell. For LCC’s CASM maters, but for the legacy big carriers which have ordered the 77X itis not so much CASM which matters but the actual cabin hard product that allows them to upsell tickets.


I think what has contributed to the longevity is that both Airbus and Boeing have had their troubles in the VLA market. The truth is that there are about half a dozen airlines in the world who can make 747/A380s work and only one of those airlines can make a fleet size larger than a dozen work. These cities have huge demand and outsize premium cabin demand, so the floorspace afforded by the A380/747/779 is spent in the premium cabins, not squishing even more discount Y seats in, the dilution effect on yield seems to be greater than the benefits of lower costs.

Look at the remaining A380 operators, bar QF and KE/OZ all are in the Alpha+/++ tier of global cities, huge demand in premium cabins is required for VLAs. In other words space from premium seats, not economy seats. There is a reason that Cebu operate dense A330s instead of dense second hand A380s around Asia.
Alpha ++
London (BA)
New York
Alpha +
Hong Kong
Singapore (SQ)
Shanghai
Beijing (CZ)
Dubai (EK)
Paris (AF - A380s retired)
Tokyo (NH)

There are probably two dozen airlines in the tier below that can make 777/A350s work and many more who can make A330/787/767 work. So the 747, A380, 77X and A351 will all sell to the same group of airlines in relatively small numbers.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:18 pm

777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Why does it have to be one or the other? My best guess is that it will fall somewhere in between. Also, for all the comparisons to the A380, the 777x is a lot smaller.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:41 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
What I also find telling to the desperation of the 77X program is the fact Boeing are considering a freighter version even before the EIS of the passenger variant. Typically (with the exception of the 747) Boeing has targeted passenger aircraft first as there is more money to be made in that market. Later a freighter would be made available in order to keep the line busy.

The fact that they are already scrambling to offer the 77XF to garner a few more orders before a potential A350F “eats their lunch” speaks to how bad the situation really is. Let me be clear, I have no doubt that the 77XF will be a fantastic freighter, and it will dominate the market, however, the fact that there is going to be an A350F will force Boeing to offer competitive pricing. They can no longer rely on freighter sales to make the program profitable.


I’m seeing a rather pessimistic view when you imply that offering a freighter version is a sign of desperation. Freight operators are the customers with money right now who can afford new airplanes. Both Boeing and Airbus are going after the freight market. The venerable 767 is the best selling widebody so far this year and it is because of freight.

The 777-200LRF can’t live on forever. It doesn’t make sense to keep building the older generation of 777 for freight operators. Additionally it isn’t compliant with the ICAO mandates to continue production beyond 2027. With the GE90 essentially going out of production and with the 747-8F production line closing, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Boeing is working on a freighter derivative of the 777X.

Why do you think Boeing is scrambling before the A350F eats their lunch? The A350F launch has been very underwhelming. No customers at launch and only 7 commitments so far. The A350F will impact market pricing, but it is worth noting that freighter conversions have always competed with new build freighters, so even without the A350F, the 777XF was going to compete with the 777-300ERSF.
Last edited by Weatherwatcher1 on Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:42 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
First of all let me just say, “respect” it’s great to see that we can still debate a contention issue here without the tread being locked.

Of the many interesting responses a few stand out as they seem to follow a theme, so I think they are worth addressing furthers.

First of all. CASM. This is the true “golden calf” of arguments to me, in that it is entirely false. The A380 at full capacity is the CASM king, and yet it still didn’t sell. For LCC’s CASM maters, but for the legacy big carriers which have ordered the 77X itis not so much CASM which matters but the actual cabin hard product that allows them to upsell tickets.

So should the 77X best its targets and become the most efficient way to get 400 people from A to B, then although a great achievement, I still don’t see anyone ordering it. For the exact same reason no one ordered the A380 in a high-density configuration – There is no demand for it.

So we are back to what I stated within the initial post, the only potential customers for the 77X are airlines with very congested routes or those which wish to make a statement with a “flag ship” product to sell seats. The EXACT same market as the A380 ended up in.

What I also find telling to the desperation of the 77X program is the fact Boeing are considering a freighter version even before the EIS of the passenger variant. Typically (with the exception of the 747) Boeing has targeted passenger aircraft first as there is more money to be made in that market. Later a freighter would be made available in order to keep the line busy.

The fact that they are already scrambling to offer the 77XF to garner a few more orders before a potential A350F “eats their lunch” speaks to how bad the situation really is. Let me be clear, I have no doubt that the 77XF will be a fantastic freighter, and it will dominate the market, however, the fact that there is going to be an A350F will force Boeing to offer competitive pricing. They can no longer rely on freighter sales to make the program profitable.

I think you are missing the point as to why Boeing is talking about the 777XF now. They have held almost a monopoly on new-build freighters for decades, and they do not want to lose it. It was Airbus who launched the A350F in an attempt to break into that market. It is very unlikely that anyone would order the old 777F over the A350F. So Boeing had to respond. The point is that with COVID having dried up sales for ALL widebodies except freighters, and the end of that drought is not in sight, the game has changed. And both Airbus and Boeing are acting accordingly.


Emirates just ordered 777Fs. They could have ordered A350Fs.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:45 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
I cannot find a reason either as to why anyone would order a 77X. And in multiple threads now I have asked for people to tell me where only the 77X makes sense. But so far, zero. No one can actually say why an airline would order it.


Perhaps you should ask the airlines that have ordered it, or even better send letters to the CEOs and board members telling them how stupid they were to order this aircraft.

Cheers,

David
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:27 pm

diverdave wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
I cannot find a reason either as to why anyone would order a 77X. And in multiple threads now I have asked for people to tell me where only the 77X makes sense. But so far, zero. No one can actually say why an airline would order it.


Perhaps you should ask the airlines that have ordered it, or even better send letters to the CEOs and board members telling them how stupid they were to order this aircraft.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The 777X has its place amongst airlines that have a large cargo division. It's no coincidence that we see EK, SQ, CX, LH in the list of customers.
To me the odd duckling of 777X customers is BA.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:32 pm

airbazar wrote:
diverdave wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
I cannot find a reason either as to why anyone would order a 77X. And in multiple threads now I have asked for people to tell me where only the 77X makes sense. But so far, zero. No one can actually say why an airline would order it.


Perhaps you should ask the airlines that have ordered it, or even better send letters to the CEOs and board members telling them how stupid they were to order this aircraft.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The 777X has its place amongst airlines that have a large cargo division. It's no coincidence that we see EK, SQ, CX, LH in the list of customers.
To me the odd duckling of 777X customers is BA.

Do we think the 779x will have an ability to carry more cargo?

I would wager the airlines that have ordered the 777x are by and large those that orders the A380 I.e. those with major centralised networks around a large hub.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:41 pm

If the total production ends up being 250 passenger frames like the A380, but they build another 400 777-8F freighters, it will be a successful program. I think it has some breathing room until a new geared engine shows up on the 787 or A350. Until that point, the GE9x will be the most current engine on a widebody.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:02 pm

airbazar wrote:
diverdave wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
I cannot find a reason either as to why anyone would order a 77X. And in multiple threads now I have asked for people to tell me where only the 77X makes sense. But so far, zero. No one can actually say why an airline would order it.


Perhaps you should ask the airlines that have ordered it, or even better send letters to the CEOs and board members telling them how stupid they were to order this aircraft.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The 777X has its place amongst airlines that have a large cargo division. It's no coincidence that we see EK, SQ, CX, LH in the list of customers.
To me the odd duckling of 777X customers is BA.


How would BA utilize its LHR slot portfolio without a large aircraft?
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:10 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
airbazar wrote:
diverdave wrote:

Perhaps you should ask the airlines that have ordered it, or even better send letters to the CEOs and board members telling them how stupid they were to order this aircraft.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The 777X has its place amongst airlines that have a large cargo division. It's no coincidence that we see EK, SQ, CX, LH in the list of customers.
To me the odd duckling of 777X customers is BA.

Do we think the 779x will have an ability to carry more cargo?

I would wager the airlines that have ordered the 777x are by and large those that orders the A380 I.e. those with major centralised networks around a large hub.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Volume wise it’s the largest thing you can find for cargo in a passenger aircraft.

I think the 77W and 35K is 44LD3s and the 779 at 48 and with focus now on volume due to e-commerce, it may not be a bad idea
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:13 pm

airbazar wrote:
diverdave wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
I cannot find a reason either as to why anyone would order a 77X. And in multiple threads now I have asked for people to tell me where only the 77X makes sense. But so far, zero. No one can actually say why an airline would order it.


Perhaps you should ask the airlines that have ordered it, or even better send letters to the CEOs and board members telling them how stupid they were to order this aircraft.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The 777X has its place amongst airlines that have a large cargo division. It's no coincidence that we see EK, SQ, CX, LH in the list of customers.
To me the odd duckling of 777X customers is BA.


Why is BA is odd customer when their hub is a slot constraint airport, if not one of the most slot restricted one in the world….
 
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ER757
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 20, 2021 12:17 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
Not without a 6 wheel bogey and larger wing.


I guess that’s why we haven’t seen it. New wing = new airplane


Just to remind you that Boeing had to develop an all-new, CFRP wing for the B777X. Boeing could have done the same with a B787-10X, as well as adapting 6-wheel main bogies to handle higher weights. And a variant of the GEn9x engine could have been used, too. I think not choosing to further develop the B787-10 was a missed opportunity, which could have been more successful Boeing.

New larger wing + 6 wheel main gear and it's really no longer a 787, it's a CFRP 777, essentially a new model with the required new certification program.
The 779 will never be the sales success the 77W was because of two factors. Stiff competition not only from the A350-1000 but the 359 and 789 as well, which is because of factor two, less business travel post-COVID. It will never come all the way back to pre-pandemic levels so the smaller 350 and 787 model siphon off some of what would have been the VLA market.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 20, 2021 12:55 am

Daysleeper wrote:
So we are back to what I stated within the initial post, the only potential customers for the 77X are airlines with very congested routes or those which wish to make a statement with a “flag ship” product to sell seats. The EXACT same market as the A380 ended up in.


You miss one point: the A380 is still MUCH larger and especially way less efficient than the 777X, also it has the airport handling/operation flexibility problem called Category F and two full decks.
The 777-9 is not even 3 meters longer than the 777-300, this is just 3,5 rows of Economy. Many Airlines will replace their 777-300ERs with the 777-9 later on, right now many 777-300ERs are still quite new. And even more Airlines will replace their A380s with 777-9s as this aircraft will be the largest available.
I keep saying that Boeing will sell at least 600-700 777X. But it will not sell as much as the 787 or A350, thats for sure. But nobody is expecting this.
 
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PolarRoute
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:09 am

DLHAM wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
So we are back to what I stated within the initial post, the only potential customers for the 77X are airlines with very congested routes or those which wish to make a statement with a “flag ship” product to sell seats. The EXACT same market as the A380 ended up in.


You miss one point: the A380 is still MUCH larger and especially way less efficient than the 777X, also it has the airport handling/operation flexibility problem called Category F and two full decks.
The 777-9 is not even 3 meters longer than the 777-300, this is just 3,5 rows of Economy. Many Airlines will replace their 777-300ERs with the 777-9 later on, right now many 777-300ERs are still quite new. And even more Airlines will replace their A380s with 777-9s as this aircraft will be the largest available.
I keep saying that Boeing will sell at least 600-700 777X.


Yes, the 779 is not larger than any other airliners by as big of a margin as the a380 was. But, by not being explosively larger, does the 779 provide the efficiency in comparison to its smaller competitors? That's the question being asked, not just the size solely by itself.

The a35k provides at least the same, if not better, payload range capability with arguably lower trip cost. Yes, it will be restricted by the cabin floor area by some point, but if you want to argue that 779 is 'only' 2-3 rows bigger, the cabin floor area restriction can't be THAT restrictive.

The a380 was killed off by the smaller competitor, 77w, which provided substantial payload and comparable cost in per seat basis with less cabin area and trip cost. We now see the same thing happening with the 779 and 351
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:14 am

PolarRoute wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
So we are back to what I stated within the initial post, the only potential customers for the 77X are airlines with very congested routes or those which wish to make a statement with a “flag ship” product to sell seats. The EXACT same market as the A380 ended up in.


You miss one point: the A380 is still MUCH larger and especially way less efficient than the 777X, also it has the airport handling/operation flexibility problem called Category F and two full decks.
The 777-9 is not even 3 meters longer than the 777-300, this is just 3,5 rows of Economy. Many Airlines will replace their 777-300ERs with the 777-9 later on, right now many 777-300ERs are still quite new. And even more Airlines will replace their A380s with 777-9s as this aircraft will be the largest available.
I keep saying that Boeing will sell at least 600-700 777X.


Yes, the 779 is not larger than any other airliners by as big of a margin as the a380 was. But, by not being explosively larger, does the 779 provide the efficiency in comparison to its smaller competitors? That's the question being asked, not just the size solely by itself.

The a35k provides at least the same, if not better, payload range capability with arguably lower trip cost. Yes, it will be restricted by the cabin floor area by some point, but if you want to argue that 779 is 'only' 2-3 rows bigger, the cabin floor area restriction can't be THAT restrictive.

The a380 was killed off by the smaller competitor, 77w, which provided substantial payload and comparable cost in per seat basis with less cabin area and trip cost. We now see the same thing happening with the 779 and 351

You’re not seeing anything because the 779 has outsold the 351. So I don’t know what you’re seeing.

Maybe wait and see what happens?
 
Aseem747
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:01 am

Airbus bias + the decline in demand for new large aircraft always makes discussions on the 777X pretty hilarious to read. Especially when you see the same people bashing the 777-9 praising the A350-1000, which has been doing far worse in terms of orders I'm pretty sure a leasing company or something in 2019 or 18 said there was no demand for it.
The 777X judging from the present condition of order book without any bias surely would looks like it'll be the airplane that'll give the large wide body market at least some kind of strong market presence in the future? It's the only large passenger aircraft to get orders since 2020 too I believe, 11 to be exact.
777-300ER are still young and strong airplanes, the most common wide body in the world to be exact so majority of it's operators haven't even had any proper replacement or retirement plans for it too.

Also, what do the people complaining about Chinese and US carriers not ordering the 777X want. China Southern to replace their 5 year old 777-300ER fleet? Or maybe United's 4-5 year old 777-300ER fleet? I doubt there's a single main land Chinese or American 77W operator whose fleet is even 10 years old so chill, their time will come too.
Last edited by Aseem747 on Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
DenverTed
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:10 am

Opus99 wrote:
PolarRoute wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

You miss one point: the A380 is still MUCH larger and especially way less efficient than the 777X, also it has the airport handling/operation flexibility problem called Category F and two full decks.
The 777-9 is not even 3 meters longer than the 777-300, this is just 3,5 rows of Economy. Many Airlines will replace their 777-300ERs with the 777-9 later on, right now many 777-300ERs are still quite new. And even more Airlines will replace their A380s with 777-9s as this aircraft will be the largest available.
I keep saying that Boeing will sell at least 600-700 777X.


Yes, the 779 is not larger than any other airliners by as big of a margin as the a380 was. But, by not being explosively larger, does the 779 provide the efficiency in comparison to its smaller competitors? That's the question being asked, not just the size solely by itself.

The a35k provides at least the same, if not better, payload range capability with arguably lower trip cost. Yes, it will be restricted by the cabin floor area by some point, but if you want to argue that 779 is 'only' 2-3 rows bigger, the cabin floor area restriction can't be THAT restrictive.

The a380 was killed off by the smaller competitor, 77w, which provided substantial payload and comparable cost in per seat basis with less cabin area and trip cost. We now see the same thing happening with the 779 and 351

You’re not seeing anything because the 779 has outsold the 351. So I don’t know what you’re seeing.

Maybe wait and see what happens?

The deliveries are 57 to 0. I would be surprised if the 779 is able to surpass A351 deliveries by 2030.
 
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PolarRoute
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:34 am

Opus99 wrote:
PolarRoute wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

You miss one point: the A380 is still MUCH larger and especially way less efficient than the 777X, also it has the airport handling/operation flexibility problem called Category F and two full decks.
The 777-9 is not even 3 meters longer than the 777-300, this is just 3,5 rows of Economy. Many Airlines will replace their 777-300ERs with the 777-9 later on, right now many 777-300ERs are still quite new. And even more Airlines will replace their A380s with 777-9s as this aircraft will be the largest available.
I keep saying that Boeing will sell at least 600-700 777X.


Yes, the 779 is not larger than any other airliners by as big of a margin as the a380 was. But, by not being explosively larger, does the 779 provide the efficiency in comparison to its smaller competitors? That's the question being asked, not just the size solely by itself.

The a35k provides at least the same, if not better, payload range capability with arguably lower trip cost. Yes, it will be restricted by the cabin floor area by some point, but if you want to argue that 779 is 'only' 2-3 rows bigger, the cabin floor area restriction can't be THAT restrictive.

The a380 was killed off by the smaller competitor, 77w, which provided substantial payload and comparable cost in per seat basis with less cabin area and trip cost. We now see the same thing happening with the 779 and 351

You’re not seeing anything because the 779 has outsold the 351. So I don’t know what you’re seeing.

Maybe wait and see what happens?


From my earlier post:

when looking at a VLA's order book, the order count at launch and its customer base shouldn't be considered a means of market outlook for the said VLA, IMO. VLA, being a very large aircraft, will have those blue chip customers in its order book, not because it is such a sound plane, but they are the only ones with the resource and network needed to operate the VLAs efficiently enough. So naturally, they'll have big names logged in the books, but that's it. No one, with the exception of EK, who seem to be struggling with all the capacity anyways, needs multiple dozens of large guage aircraft: bigger guage, less frequency; more frequency, smaller guage. This makes harder for VLAs to garner any top-ups in substantial amount, getting them stuck in the initial figure of orders and hindering the sustained longevity of the program.


Also, another thing that the a380 is paralleled by the 779:

At the point of its EIS, the a380 had 189 firm orders from some strong customers, excluding the options. And yet it still turned out to be a financial flub. Likewise, the 779 has, 191 "firm" blue chip customer orders, and that 191 is a statement from Boeing.
The number stems from an accounting rule ASC 606, which requires a different classifications for those orders that are unlikely to materialize, for whatever reason. And this is Boeing themselves classifying the other 118 orders as 'unlikely to happen.' So I think that's a solid reason to go by the number 191.
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