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Opus99
Posts: 2980
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:05 am

kitplane01 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

It’s not “limited on how many you’ve sold”. It’s what it says … the current Boeing estimate of total sales over the life of the program past present and future.

That increases with sales. It doesn’t stay there forever. It is not indicative of what they expect to sell from a business strategy point of view


It is exactly what the expect to sell. It is exactly indicative of what they expect to sell. It is their current estimate of all sales for the program's lifetime.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/11/05/boein ... ng%20block.

The number is not stagnant. If the sales go to 400 they’ll leave it at 350?

Leeham released an article today that Boeing expects to sell 500 Xs
 
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Revelation
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:35 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

It’s not “limited on how many you’ve sold”. It’s what it says … the current Boeing estimate of total sales over the life of the program past present and future.

That increases with sales. It doesn’t stay there forever. It is not indicative of what they expect to sell from a business strategy point of view

It is exactly what the expect to sell. It is exactly indicative of what they expect to sell. It is their current estimate of all sales for the program's lifetime.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/11/05/boein ... ng%20block.

And yet, we've seen the 787 accounting quantity go up several times over the life of the program. Go figure.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:54 pm

And there's nothing 'exact' about it. Look at the original A380 or CS100 sales projections out 15 years.
 
Speedy752
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:10 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
First of all let me just say, “respect” it’s great to see that we can still debate a contention issue here without the tread being locked.

Of the many interesting responses a few stand out as they seem to follow a theme, so I think they are worth addressing furthers.

First of all. CASM. This is the true “golden calf” of arguments to me, in that it is entirely false. The A380 at full capacity is the CASM king, and yet it still didn’t sell. For LCC’s CASM maters, but for the legacy big carriers which have ordered the 77X itis not so much CASM which matters but the actual cabin hard product that allows them to upsell tickets.

So should the 77X best its targets and become the most efficient way to get 400 people from A to B, then although a great achievement, I still don’t see anyone ordering it. For the exact same reason no one ordered the A380 in a high-density configuration – There is no demand for it.

So we are back to what I stated within the initial post, the only potential customers for the 77X are airlines with very congested routes or those which wish to make a statement with a “flag ship” product to sell seats. The EXACT same market as the A380 ended up in.

What I also find telling to the desperation of the 77X program is the fact Boeing are considering a freighter version even before the EIS of the passenger variant. Typically (with the exception of the 747) Boeing has targeted passenger aircraft first as there is more money to be made in that market. Later a freighter would be made available in order to keep the line busy.

The fact that they are already scrambling to offer the 77XF to garner a few more orders before a potential A350F “eats their lunch” speaks to how bad the situation really is. Let me be clear, I have no doubt that the 77XF will be a fantastic freighter, and it will dominate the market, however, the fact that there is going to be an A350F will force Boeing to offer competitive pricing. They can no longer rely on freighter sales to make the program profitable.



Looking back at the 747 the freighter came after the 747-100 passenger model not first. Pan Am had requested a large wide body jet. Boeing took some of the C5 competition design and created the 747 out of it. The 747 itself was not a freighter design first.


That’s actually not really correct. The 747 was always designed to be a freighter, even if the freighter variant wasn’t first to launch. Their reasoning was that supersonic transports would dominate and they wanted to make their money back.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:20 pm

Speedy752 wrote:

That’s actually not really correct. The 747 was always designed to be a freighter, even if the freighter variant wasn’t first to launch. Their reasoning was that supersonic transports would dominate and they wanted to make their money back.


Yeah, I was going to question that too, but I'm not entirely sure of the whole story, and it might be deemed too far off-topic by the mods giving them reason to lock another thread.

But I know that one of the justifications for building it was that it could become a fantastic freighter, should there be very few passenger sales. Concord was in development around this time, and I think Boeing were either starting to work on the 2707 or had already started. It's mad to think that at one time it was expected that the majority of passenger travel would be supersonic. Who knows, perhaps that's why so few carriers have committed to the 77X, they are going to follow United's' lead and order supersonic jets from boom instead. :)

But I'm not entirely sure if they always intended it as a freighter or just made sure it could become one if there was no demand. DarkSnoweyNight would perhaps know, he seems to be on-point when it comes to avaition history.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:40 am

Opus99 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
That increases with sales. It doesn’t stay there forever. It is not indicative of what they expect to sell from a business strategy point of view


It is exactly what the expect to sell. It is exactly indicative of what they expect to sell. It is their current estimate of all sales for the program's lifetime.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/11/05/boein ... ng%20block.

The number is not stagnant. If the sales go to 400 they’ll leave it at 350?

Leeham released an article today that Boeing expects to sell 500 Xs


The accounting block quantity goes up and down. It does change as new data appears. For example on the 777X it used to be more, and has declined as the plane sells slowly. But it is still the current best estimate of total program sales. If you want to be an optimist that’s fine, but the accounting block is Boeing’s best estimate given all available known data.
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:07 am

kitplane01 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

It is exactly what the expect to sell. It is exactly indicative of what they expect to sell. It is their current estimate of all sales for the program's lifetime.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/11/05/boein ... ng%20block.

The number is not stagnant. If the sales go to 400 they’ll leave it at 350?

Leeham released an article today that Boeing expects to sell 500 Xs


The accounting block quantity goes up and down. It does change as new data appears. For example on the 777X it used to be more, and has declined as the plane sells slowly. But it is still the current best estimate of total program sales. If you want to be an optimist that’s fine, but the accounting block is Boeing’s best estimate given all available known data.

I can agree with you on that
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:19 am

Daysleeper wrote:

But I'm not entirely sure if they always intended it as a freighter or just made sure it could become one if there was no demand. DarkSnoweyNight would perhaps know, he seems to be on-point when it comes to avaition history.


Thanks. I know some things, :)

The 747 was always intended primarily as a freighter. So much so that the 1st tranche of 747-100s had the gaps for the nose door and some supporting structure already built in to facilitate easier conversion.

But it would be fair to say that BCA had already largely embraced the idea of the 747 being a PAX aircraft before it flew.
The preponderance of orders were going that way and the upgrades for the -200 were largely geared toward this...
 
BAorAB
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:35 am

Come on Folks! Let's take the A380 off the table for a moment, yes it ended up a white elephant. But the 747 was certainly not. It was the most successful aircraft of our generation and the market it served hasn't gone away. Infact it's grown and will continue to grow. So will the desire for more premium onboard offerings. Couple all that together....and think what will be the closest 747 replacement aircraft for the next generation, Simple answer....777x. Nothing is even close. A35K is nice, but not that close. 777X seat per mile costs beat the A35K therefore it's really the go to aircraft for 747 replacement. Yes 77W took that role for a whole decade, but airlines lost capacity as a result because the 777W was the best and closest offering on the market. Now 18 years later...777x becomes the best replacement for what was once the 747 then the 77W. Expect many many 777X's to be sold thru 2040!
 
JonesNL
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:45 am

Looking at the numbers flying around regarding orders, both the A35k and 777x are not raking in the orders one would expect. It seem they are the VLA couple (A380 and 747-8)of this decade…
 
flipdewaf
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:27 am

BAorAB wrote:
777X seat per mile costs beat the A35K
then why can the 777x only fly 7285nm with 426 pax? Unless of course it’s OWE is up in the 190t range and the payload is correspondingly low.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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keesje
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:23 am

Looking at seatguru 77W cabin layouts, it seem the 2 rear cabins are useally used for economy. It seems on 777s many airlines use 10 abreast, the A350 mostly 9 abreast. Those 2 cabins useally are around 27 seatrows, ging the 777-9 around 27 seats.

Than the 777-9 cabin is a few meters longer, adding 2 seatrows/20 seats. This doesn't come for free, you need an additional lavatory and galley space for food/drinks, ovens etc. .

I think it is reasonable to assume an 777-9 can carry 40 seats more than an A350. Less comfortable, narrower seats, armrests, aisles etc. I avoid them. But still.

Those 40 seats come at a hefty weight and costs though. So I would like to see a little bit more solid data behind the bold "777X seat per mile costs beat the A35K" statements. :scratchchin:
 
Opus99
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Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:16 am

flipdewaf wrote:
BAorAB wrote:
777X seat per mile costs beat the A35K
then why can the 777x only fly 7285nm with 426 pax? Unless of course it’s OWE is up in the 190t range and the payload is correspondingly low.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I mean that depends on what figures boeing is using to calculate payload.

https://www.airbus.com/sites/g/files/jl ... 0-1000.pdf

Using airbus’ own figures of 95 tonnes per passenger. At 366 passengers the 350-1000 goes to about 8300NM

If you multiply their 95 KG by 426 you get about 40,500 or so. You get about 7700Nm

Airbus says around 35 tonnes represents 366 passengers

If I apply that logic to boeings graph on a 777-300ER

At 396 you get about 7700NM which is over 14,200KM but Boeing has it 13,369KM

On a 787 296 passengers should give you about 14500KM but Boeing has it at 14,000KM

What am I saying? These figures are hidden behind a lot of smoke and mirrors, so I don’t know if that figure is a die hard figure

Boeing said they revised all their figures down to simulate real world

https://www.flightglobal.com/boeing-rev ... 17.article

So I don’t know how that payload range will turn out. But I appreciate its the only thing you have to go by right now so I guess that’s really all you can base your argument on which is fair enough

Lufthansa has it at 14,000KM with 400 passengers
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4324
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:26 pm

Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
BAorAB wrote:
777X seat per mile costs beat the A35K
then why can the 777x only fly 7285nm with 426 pax? Unless of course it’s OWE is up in the 190t range and the payload is correspondingly low.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I mean that depends on what figures boeing is using to calculate payload.

https://www.airbus.com/sites/g/files/jl ... 0-1000.pdf

Using airbus’ own figures of 95 tonnes per passenger. At 366 passengers the 350-1000 goes to about 8300NM

If you multiply their 95 KG by 426 you get about 40,500 or so. You get about 7700Nm

Airbus says around 35 tonnes represents 366 passengers

If I apply that logic to boeings graph on a 777-300ER

At 396 you get about 7700NM which is over 14,200KM but Boeing has it 13,369KM

On a 787 296 passengers should give you about 14500KM but Boeing has it at 14,000KM

What am I saying? These figures are hidden behind a lot of smoke and mirrors, so I don’t know if that figure is a die hard figure

Boeing said they revised all their figures down to simulate real world

https://www.flightglobal.com/boeing-rev ... 17.article

So I don’t know how that payload range will turn out. But I appreciate its the only thing you have to go by right now so I guess that’s really all you can base your argument on which is fair enough

Lufthansa has it at 14,000KM with 400 passengers


I see, so you are saying that a A35k with 396pax goes 7700nm. It takes off at 316t has an OWE of 150t and has 40.5t of pax 5t of pantry and 5t of reserve fuel meaning that it burned about 115t of fuel for those 426pax or 37.7g per pax nm.

If the B779X is 351.5t at takeoff and uses 37.7g per pax nm to go 7566 then it would use 115t of fuel. take away 5 t of reserves and 5 t of pantry and 40.5t of pax and you end up at ~187t.... a 68t max payload.....

Fred
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:55 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
then why can the 777x only fly 7285nm with 426 pax? Unless of course it’s OWE is up in the 190t range and the payload is correspondingly low.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I mean that depends on what figures boeing is using to calculate payload.

https://www.airbus.com/sites/g/files/jl ... 0-1000.pdf

Using airbus’ own figures of 95 tonnes per passenger. At 366 passengers the 350-1000 goes to about 8300NM

If you multiply their 95 KG by 426 you get about 40,500 or so. You get about 7700Nm

Airbus says around 35 tonnes represents 366 passengers

If I apply that logic to boeings graph on a 777-300ER

At 396 you get about 7700NM which is over 14,200KM but Boeing has it 13,369KM

On a 787 296 passengers should give you about 14500KM but Boeing has it at 14,000KM

What am I saying? These figures are hidden behind a lot of smoke and mirrors, so I don’t know if that figure is a die hard figure

Boeing said they revised all their figures down to simulate real world

https://www.flightglobal.com/boeing-rev ... 17.article

So I don’t know how that payload range will turn out. But I appreciate its the only thing you have to go by right now so I guess that’s really all you can base your argument on which is fair enough

Lufthansa has it at 14,000KM with 400 passengers


I see, so you are saying that a A35k with 396pax goes 7700nm. It takes off at 316t has an OWE of 150t and has 40.5t of pax 5t of pantry and 5t of reserve fuel meaning that it burned about 115t of fuel for those 426pax or 37.7g per pax nm.

If the B779X is 351.5t at takeoff and uses 37.7g per pax nm to go 7566 then it would use 115t of fuel. take away 5 t of reserves and 5 t of pantry and 40.5t of pax and you end up at ~187t.... a 68t max payload.....

Fred

No. At 426 it goes 7700NM according to airbus numbers and according to airbus’ numbers of 95 per passenger the 300ER at 426 passengers would go 7500NM which seems wrong going off Boeings numbed that the aircraft will go 396 passengers at 13,600

If you scale it down to Boeings standard config of 396 for the 300ER you get about 7700NM using airbus figures of 95Kg per passenger

What I’m saying is the numbers that Boeing quote in the introductory page of their aircraft are not detailed enough for us to have concrete calculations or am I wrong?
 
Daysleeper
Topic Author
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:06 pm

BAorAB wrote:
Come on Folks! Let's take the A380 off the table for a moment, yes it ended up a white elephant. But the 747 was certainly not. It was the most successful aircraft of our generation and the market it served hasn't gone away. Infact it's grown and will continue to grow. So will the desire for more premium onboard offerings. Couple all that together....and think what will be the closest 747 replacement aircraft for the next generation, Simple answer....777x. Nothing is even close. A35K is nice, but not that close. 777X seat per mile costs beat the A35K therefore it's really the go to aircraft for 747 replacement. Yes 77W took that role for a whole decade, but airlines lost capacity as a result because the 777W was the best and closest offering on the market. Now 18 years later...777x becomes the best replacement for what was once the 747 then the 77W. Expect many many 777X's to be sold thru 2040!


I’m not sure if you have read whole the thread up until this point, if you haven’t it would be worth doing so as many of the points you raise have already been addressed.

I would agree that the 747 was until it’s final version an extremely successful program, calling it the most of a generation is perhaps a little much as there are many metrics by which you could judge a programs success. But I’m much more sceptical about your market analysis for VLA’s and specifically that it has grown and will continue to grow. What are your basis for that?

You also seem to be forgetting the 748i, if there really is such a large growing market for VLA’s of the 747’s size (assuming you think that the A380 was too big) why did no one order the 748 – I mean it was a 747 so you would think it the perfect size to replace a 747 wouldn’t you. Nope instead they went for something a little smaller but much more efficient the 77W.

Am much the same as when they decided to go for a slightly smaller replacement for the 744’s it seems like the airlines are doing the same now by selecting the A350, and larger versions of the 787 to replace their older 777’s.

All of this has already been discussed should you care to take the time to read it, but one final point; Where are you getting your fuel burn and CASM numbers for the 77X? As to say the A35K “isn’t even close” is somewhat baffling to me. As it there is only a 3 meter difference in length between the two. The 77X’s increased capacity largely comes from its use of 10-abreast seating in economy something we know Airbus is working on integrating on the A350, should that happen then the 779 will have an extra 2 rows of Y or 1 row of J, but it’s estimated (we don’t have the final numbers for the 779 yet) to be up to 30,000 KG’s heaver than the A35K. So there is a possibility that you might be right in the end, if the A350 gets 10 abreast seating, the 779 wouldn’t even come close to the CASM of the A350.

Finally, I’m hoping that your post was enthusiasm and optimism rather than delusional. But if you choose to reply then could please try and explain how and why you have drawn the conclusions you have. It makes discussion easier and much more interesting.
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 2654
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:40 pm

2175301 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
That increases with sales. It doesn’t stay there forever. It is not indicative of what they expect to sell from a business strategy point of view


It is exactly what the expect to sell. It is exactly indicative of what they expect to sell. It is their current estimate of all sales for the program's lifetime.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/11/05/boein ... ng%20block.


You are correct; it is the current day "reasonable" estimate of sales at this time.

IF the model is popular.. it grows with additional sales. As an example - the original 737 order block was a few hundred. It's currently at about 11,000, and grows almost every year.

Hard to compare sales numbers from the late 60s with 2021 numbers; aviation has drastically grown since.
Also, the current 737 doesn't have a lot left from the original one.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4324
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:37 pm

Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:

I mean that depends on what figures boeing is using to calculate payload.

https://www.airbus.com/sites/g/files/jl ... 0-1000.pdf

Using airbus’ own figures of 95 tonnes per passenger. At 366 passengers the 350-1000 goes to about 8300NM

If you multiply their 95 KG by 426 you get about 40,500 or so. You get about 7700Nm

Airbus says around 35 tonnes represents 366 passengers

If I apply that logic to boeings graph on a 777-300ER

At 396 you get about 7700NM which is over 14,200KM but Boeing has it 13,369KM

On a 787 296 passengers should give you about 14500KM but Boeing has it at 14,000KM

What am I saying? These figures are hidden behind a lot of smoke and mirrors, so I don’t know if that figure is a die hard figure

Boeing said they revised all their figures down to simulate real world

https://www.flightglobal.com/boeing-rev ... 17.article

So I don’t know how that payload range will turn out. But I appreciate its the only thing you have to go by right now so I guess that’s really all you can base your argument on which is fair enough

Lufthansa has it at 14,000KM with 400 passengers


I see, so you are saying that a A35k with 396pax goes 7700nm. It takes off at 316t has an OWE of 150t and has 40.5t of pax 5t of pantry and 5t of reserve fuel meaning that it burned about 115t of fuel for those 426pax or 37.7g per pax nm.

If the B779X is 351.5t at takeoff and uses 37.7g per pax nm to go 7566 then it would use 115t of fuel. take away 5 t of reserves and 5 t of pantry and 40.5t of pax and you end up at ~187t.... a 68t max payload.....

Fred

No. At 426 it goes 7700NM according to airbus numbers and according to airbus’ numbers of 95 per passenger the 300ER at 426 passengers would go 7500NM which seems wrong going off Boeings numbed that the aircraft will go 396 passengers at 13,600

If you scale it down to Boeings standard config of 396 for the 300ER you get about 7700NM using airbus figures of 95Kg per passenger

What I’m saying is the numbers that Boeing quote in the introductory page of their aircraft are not detailed enough for us to have concrete calculations or am I wrong?


You're wrong, its very simple. If the fuel burn per passenger for the 779X is as low as the fuel burn per pax for the A35K then judging by its spec range it must have an empty weight such that the maximum payload is lower. Conversely if the maximum payload is the same then the remaining weight on top of the payload to get to the spec range means a higher fuel burn per pax.

If the maximum payload AND the the fuel burn per pax were the same as the A35k then the range would need to be 7500nm with 426pax.

Fred
 
Opus99
Posts: 2980
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:28 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:

I see, so you are saying that a A35k with 396pax goes 7700nm. It takes off at 316t has an OWE of 150t and has 40.5t of pax 5t of pantry and 5t of reserve fuel meaning that it burned about 115t of fuel for those 426pax or 37.7g per pax nm.

If the B779X is 351.5t at takeoff and uses 37.7g per pax nm to go 7566 then it would use 115t of fuel. take away 5 t of reserves and 5 t of pantry and 40.5t of pax and you end up at ~187t.... a 68t max payload.....

Fred

No. At 426 it goes 7700NM according to airbus numbers and according to airbus’ numbers of 95 per passenger the 300ER at 426 passengers would go 7500NM which seems wrong going off Boeings numbed that the aircraft will go 396 passengers at 13,600

If you scale it down to Boeings standard config of 396 for the 300ER you get about 7700NM using airbus figures of 95Kg per passenger

What I’m saying is the numbers that Boeing quote in the introductory page of their aircraft are not detailed enough for us to have concrete calculations or am I wrong?


You're wrong, its very simple. If the fuel burn per passenger for the 779X is as low as the fuel burn per pax for the A35K then judging by its spec range it must have an empty weight such that the maximum payload is lower. Conversely if the maximum payload is the same then the remaining weight on top of the payload to get to the spec range means a higher fuel burn per pax.

If the maximum payload AND the the fuel burn per pax were the same as the A35k then the range would need to be 7500nm with 426pax.

Fred

I’m not arguing with that logic though. I am saying it could have higher spec range with 426 pax depending on how much weight boeing ascribes to 426 pax. If we use airbus calculations of 95KG we see a higher spec range and standard capacity for other aircraft. I’m not arguing with you on that logic.

But concerning your argument no offence Fred, I don’t know what to say because In the space of one year you’ve changed your mind on the optimism of the efficiency of the aircraft with no change in any information that we’ve received, even when Boeing has told us results are better than expected. So I mean I just have to wait and see.
 
Daysleeper
Topic Author
Posts: 743
Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:33 pm

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:47 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I’m not arguing with that logic though. I am saying it could have higher spec range with 426 pax depending on how much weight boeing ascribes to 426 pax. If we use airbus calculations of 95KG we see a higher spec range and standard capacity for other aircraft. I’m not arguing with you on that logic.

But concerning your argument no offence Fred, I don’t know what to say because In the space of one year you’ve changed your mind on the optimism of the efficiency of the aircraft with no change in any information that we’ve received, even when Boeing has told us results are better than expected. So I mean I just have to wait and see.


Perhaps "no information" is the key? Up until very recently, STC was shouting into every camera he could find that Boeing were not sharing fuel data with him and what the expected performance would be. He has gone quiet now though, which I guess is good news, but that doesn't mean he has been placated by Boeing showing him the data. It could mean his ploy worked, and Boeing have again opened up their cheque book and compensated Ek once again.

I think you said earlier in the thread that LH expected a 13% better CASM, and Boeing were aiming for 15%. I personally don't think that is anywhere near good enough, I could be wrong, but I think the current customers are happy and will remain happy due to the compensation payments due to late delivery. They should or will be getting one hell of a deal on the early 77X's

I think if Boeing was meeting or exceeding their targets with fuel burn we would know about it, yes I know its supposed to be company privileged information, but if they had managed to make the most effecient VLA on the market - they would make sure the world knew as it would spark new interest at a time when they desperately need new orders.
 
Opus99
Posts: 2980
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:49 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I’m not arguing with that logic though. I am saying it could have higher spec range with 426 pax depending on how much weight boeing ascribes to 426 pax. If we use airbus calculations of 95KG we see a higher spec range and standard capacity for other aircraft. I’m not arguing with you on that logic.

But concerning your argument no offence Fred, I don’t know what to say because In the space of one year you’ve changed your mind on the optimism of the efficiency of the aircraft with no change in any information that we’ve received, even when Boeing has told us results are better than expected. So I mean I just have to wait and see.


Perhaps "no information" is the key? Up until very recently, STC was shouting into every camera he could find that Boeing were not sharing fuel data with him and what the expected performance would be. He has gone quiet now though, which I guess is good news, but that doesn't mean he has been placated by Boeing showing him the data. It could mean his ploy worked, and Boeing have again opened up their cheque book and compensated Ek once again.

I think you said earlier in the thread that LH expected a 13% better CASM, and Boeing were aiming for 15%. I personally don't think that is anywhere near good enough, I could be wrong, but I think the current customers are happy and will remain happy due to the compensation payments due to late delivery. They should or will be getting one hell of a deal on the early 77X's

I think if Boeing was meeting or exceeding their targets with fuel burn we would know about it, yes I know its supposed to be company privileged information, but if they had managed to make the most effecient VLA on the market - they would make sure the world knew as it would spark new interest at a time when they desperately need new orders.

I mean, they literally just did NAMS in October. STC stopped making noise after they met in boston and the company said that results are better than expected. What more could they do? Or say? That will convince you other than releasing the actual data which no one has done
 
Daysleeper
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:13 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I mean, they literally just did NAMS in October. STC stopped making noise after they met in boston and the company said that results are better than expected. What more could they do? Or say? That will convince you other than releasing the actual data which no one has done


The engine has been ready and certified for over a year now, and that's where all the gains are. Yes a new wing will help, but it's going to be a negligible différance in efficiency compared to the engines.

If the GE9X was as spectacular as some here claim. We would know it, but we don't. Which leads me to conclude that the performance is "meh" certainly better than the 777 as promised, but not good enough to tell the world.
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:24 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I mean, they literally just did NAMS in October. STC stopped making noise after they met in boston and the company said that results are better than expected. What more could they do? Or say? That will convince you other than releasing the actual data which no one has done


The engine has been ready and certified for over a year now, and that's where all the gains are. Yes a new wing will help, but it's going to be a negligible différance in efficiency compared to the engines.

If the GE9X was as spectacular as some here claim. We would know it, but we don't. Which leads me to conclude that the performance is "meh" certainly better than the 777 as promised, but not good enough to tell the world.

And what would we know? They’ve told us it is 20% better than the 777-300ER. And they’ve been saying it more and more the last couple of weeks. Did Airbus do anything different before EIS in communicating that the 350-1000 was better than the 777-300ER other than telling you it was?
 
Daysleeper
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:34 pm

Opus99 wrote:
And what would we know? They’ve told us it is 20% better than the 777-300ER. And they’ve been saying it more and more the last couple of weeks. Did Airbus do anything different before EIS in communicating that the 350-1000 was better than the 777-300ER other than telling you it was?



We don't and that's the point. With the A35K we all knew it was going to be much better than the 77W because it weighs 30-odd thousand Kg's less and has modern engines. It was a no-brainer.

Airbus were selling the efficiency gains of the A350 over the 777 hard, and although I am struggling to remember the threads back then, I am pretty sure we had reliable-ish data to back up their claims.

Why would Boeing want to keep just how much more efficient the 77X is a secret?
 
flipdewaf
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:38 pm

Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
No. At 426 it goes 7700NM according to airbus numbers and according to airbus’ numbers of 95 per passenger the 300ER at 426 passengers would go 7500NM which seems wrong going off Boeings numbed that the aircraft will go 396 passengers at 13,600

If you scale it down to Boeings standard config of 396 for the 300ER you get about 7700NM using airbus figures of 95Kg per passenger

What I’m saying is the numbers that Boeing quote in the introductory page of their aircraft are not detailed enough for us to have concrete calculations or am I wrong?


You're wrong, its very simple. If the fuel burn per passenger for the 779X is as low as the fuel burn per pax for the A35K then judging by its spec range it must have an empty weight such that the maximum payload is lower. Conversely if the maximum payload is the same then the remaining weight on top of the payload to get to the spec range means a higher fuel burn per pax.

If the maximum payload AND the the fuel burn per pax were the same as the A35k then the range would need to be 7500nm with 426pax.

Fred

I’m not arguing with that logic though. I am saying it could have higher spec range with 426 pax depending on how much weight boeing ascribes to 426 pax. If we use airbus calculations of 95KG we see a higher spec range and standard capacity for other aircraft. I’m not arguing with you on that logic.

But concerning your argument no offence Fred, I don’t know what to say because In the space of one year you’ve changed your mind on the optimism of the efficiency of the aircraft with no change in any information that we’ve received, even when Boeing has told us results are better than expected. So I mean I just have to wait and see.

Are you asking why my optimism for change has wained over a year? Well for starters it wasn’t optimism, those were your words, it was capacity to expect change to a level that would make the 779x make more sense.
That capacity to expect change has wained because of the lack of evidence of change. Maybe they’ll announce a performance change, maybe they will only sell what’s already ordered, maybe they misunderstood the quality of the A359 and 787 offerings.

The thing has been in the air for 2years now and whilst they may not have done the NAMS testing they will have a pretty good idea of performance. The configuration isn’t changing, nor is the engine.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:56 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:

You're wrong, its very simple. If the fuel burn per passenger for the 779X is as low as the fuel burn per pax for the A35K then judging by its spec range it must have an empty weight such that the maximum payload is lower. Conversely if the maximum payload is the same then the remaining weight on top of the payload to get to the spec range means a higher fuel burn per pax.

If the maximum payload AND the the fuel burn per pax were the same as the A35k then the range would need to be 7500nm with 426pax.

Fred

I’m not arguing with that logic though. I am saying it could have higher spec range with 426 pax depending on how much weight boeing ascribes to 426 pax. If we use airbus calculations of 95KG we see a higher spec range and standard capacity for other aircraft. I’m not arguing with you on that logic.

But concerning your argument no offence Fred, I don’t know what to say because In the space of one year you’ve changed your mind on the optimism of the efficiency of the aircraft with no change in any information that we’ve received, even when Boeing has told us results are better than expected. So I mean I just have to wait and see.

Are you asking why my optimism for change has wained over a year? Well for starters it wasn’t optimism, those were your words, it was capacity to expect change to a level that would make the 779x make more sense.
That capacity to expect change has wained because of the lack of evidence of change. Maybe they’ll announce a performance change, maybe they will only sell what’s already ordered, maybe they misunderstood the quality of the A359 and 787 offerings.

The thing has been in the air for 2years now and whilst they may not have done the NAMS testing they will have a pretty good idea of performance. The configuration isn’t changing, nor is the engine.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

What change would you expect to see? I don’t understand?

When last did Boeing announce a performance change? when they were testing the 300ER? Even if there was one they wouldn’t announce it?

They have started NAMS. They have said the results are better than expected. They don’t release payload/range till the aircraft has been fully certified.
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:04 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
And what would we know? They’ve told us it is 20% better than the 777-300ER. And they’ve been saying it more and more the last couple of weeks. Did Airbus do anything different before EIS in communicating that the 350-1000 was better than the 777-300ER other than telling you it was?



We don't and that's the point. With the A35K we all knew it was going to be much better than the 77W because it weighs 30-odd thousand Kg's less and has modern engines. It was a no-brainer.

Airbus were selling the efficiency gains of the A350 over the 777 hard, and although I am struggling to remember the threads back then, I am pretty sure we had reliable-ish data to back up their claims.

Why would Boeing want to keep just how much more efficient the 77X is a secret?

How are they keeping it a secret? They’ve been saying it’s 20% better than the 300ER. Maybe you people want them to share the data from flight testing.

The thing has been flying for 2 years but I think there have been other issues to focus on than what a.net thinks Boeing is trying to hard. Okay they say oh wow the 777X is so so much better than we thought! Yeah okay well how about you get it certified? When’s that going to be? Well we are not sure? Then nobody really gives a damn. As for STC who was looking for anything that could stick and now that initial NAMS has been done and shared, he’s not barking about performance anymore. It’s now delivery time.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:25 pm

Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I’m not arguing with that logic though. I am saying it could have higher spec range with 426 pax depending on how much weight boeing ascribes to 426 pax. If we use airbus calculations of 95KG we see a higher spec range and standard capacity for other aircraft. I’m not arguing with you on that logic.

But concerning your argument no offence Fred, I don’t know what to say because In the space of one year you’ve changed your mind on the optimism of the efficiency of the aircraft with no change in any information that we’ve received, even when Boeing has told us results are better than expected. So I mean I just have to wait and see.

Are you asking why my optimism for change has wained over a year? Well for starters it wasn’t optimism, those were your words, it was capacity to expect change to a level that would make the 779x make more sense.
That capacity to expect change has wained because of the lack of evidence of change. Maybe they’ll announce a performance change, maybe they will only sell what’s already ordered, maybe they misunderstood the quality of the A359 and 787 offerings.

The thing has been in the air for 2years now and whilst they may not have done the NAMS testing they will have a pretty good idea of performance. The configuration isn’t changing, nor is the engine.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

What change would you expect to see? I don’t understand?

When last did Boeing announce a performance change? when they were testing the 300ER? Even if there was one they wouldn’t announce it?

They have started NAMS. They have said the results are better than expected. They don’t release payload/range till the aircraft has been fully certified.


They would publicly announce it as they did in the past with the 77w and associated performance increase.

The 2% better than expected from LH will bring it more in to line as to what’s needed and would bring the expected fuel burn per pax no in line with the A35k but only on spec seating, not a per m2 cabin area.

With the A35K at the same cabin density as the spec 779x the 779x needs a spec range of 7750nm to demonstrate this. This difference in performance is about the difference between the A346 and 77w. Why would Boeing keep that sort of performance change secret?

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
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Revelation
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:40 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
The 2% better than expected from LH will bring it more in to line as to what’s needed and would bring the expected fuel burn per pax no in line with the A35k but only on spec seating, not a per m2 cabin area.

With the A35K at the same cabin density as the spec 779x the 779x needs a spec range of 7750nm to demonstrate this. This difference in performance is about the difference between the A346 and 77w. Why would Boeing keep that sort of performance change secret?

Why would LH even bother ordering 777X having A359 on order and knowing A35K was being developed?

Why take on a new aircraft type, new engine, new pilot training regime instead of just going with A35K?

FWIW, Keesje already went with "mercy order", no fair reusing that one.
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:27 am

Revelation wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
The 2% better than expected from LH will bring it more in to line as to what’s needed and would bring the expected fuel burn per pax no in line with the A35k but only on spec seating, not a per m2 cabin area.

With the A35K at the same cabin density as the spec 779x the 779x needs a spec range of 7750nm to demonstrate this. This difference in performance is about the difference between the A346 and 77w. Why would Boeing keep that sort of performance change secret?

Why would LH even bother ordering 777X having A359 on order and knowing A35K was being developed?

Why take on a new aircraft type, new engine, new pilot training regime instead of just going with A35K?

FWIW, Keesje already went with "mercy order", no fair reusing that one.

They’ll say maximum movement per aircraft which in my opinion is daft on the airline if the A35K has even better CASM and is smaller by what? 40 seats?
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:55 am

Daysleeper wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Why would LH even bother ordering 777X having A359 on order and knowing A35K was being developed?

Why take on a new aircraft type, new engine, new pilot training regime instead of just going with A35K?

FWIW, Keesje already went with "mercy order", no fair reusing that one.

They’ll say maximum movement per aircraft which in my opinion is daft on the airline if the A35K has even better CASM and is smaller by what? 40 seats?


No they wont. Well I would ask, why did LH order the A380 and the 748?

That’s what Fred said. He said maximum movement per aircraft that’s why people buy the. 779.

Look at BA who are known for very good fleet planning. They already had the 35K, they must be idiots for picking the 779. Bear in mind, what makes you think LH doesn’t like their 748? They’re still flying today and will be for a while. The 380 was a mistake in which I doubt they’ll make again. Even emirates knows that can make that same mistake again. Why is the forum so pressed on the 350-1000 being so much better than the 779?! Why can’t you people settle on the fact that they’re both great aircraft and we have to wait and see? Does the 779 bother you that much? Or you just hate it because it’s Boeing that made it, hence it must fail?
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:20 am

Opus99 wrote:
That’s what Fred said. He said maximum movement per aircraft that’s why people buy the. 779.

Look at BA who are known for very good fleet planning. They already had the 35K, they must be idiots for picking the 779. Bear in mind, what makes you think LH doesn’t like their 748? They’re still flying today and will be for a while. The 380 was a mistake in which I doubt they’ll make again. Even emirates knows that can make that same mistake again. Why is the forum so pressed on the 350-1000 being so much better than the 779?! Why can’t you people settle on the fact that they’re both great aircraft and we have to wait and see? Does the 779 bother you that much? Or you just hate it because it’s Boeing that made it, hence it must fail?


I obviously cannot speak on the behalf of others, but I have not seen anyone post in this thread that the 77X will be an utter failure, for any reason, and certainly not just because it's made by Boeing. What I have said, and will say again; is that Boeing seem to have missed the market with the 77X, and it has a striking resemblance to what Airbus did with the A380 a few years ago. I won't go over the comparison again, as I have explained it multiple times now, and it seems I am not entirely alone in seeing the similarities between the two projects.

BA and LH both have routes and a market which will suit the 77X, although we obviously don't know which specific routes that they plan to deploy them upon I am willing to bet they will either serve alongside the A380 in the case of BA or perhaps replace them with LH. I think that is perhaps where you have misunderstood my opinion of 77X, it's not that I don't think that there is any market for it, but that it's an incredibly limited one, and ironically the exact same market with the exact same customers that the A380 served.


I also have no idea why you seem to take my own, or anyone's, critique of Boeing as some sort of personal affront. I understand that you're passionate about aviation, I am, as I think most who post here are. But if all we posted was good news, and we were always in agreement, what would be the point of a discussion forum? There would be nothing to discuss. It's also worth bearing in mind just how far Boeing has fallen from grace. Prior to the disaster, which was (and perhaps still is) the 787 development program they hadn't really put a foot wrong within civil aviation (ignoring the 2707, as concord was hardly a success) and they dominated almost every segment of it. Things are a little different now, and just as we have gone over, and over, the reasons behind the lacklustre performance of various Airbus programs - especially the A380 - Then it's only fair to expect the same inquisition when a Boeing program doesn't seem to be going to plan.
 
JohanTally
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:50 am

Daysleeper wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
That’s what Fred said. He said maximum movement per aircraft that’s why people buy the. 779.

Look at BA who are known for very good fleet planning. They already had the 35K, they must be idiots for picking the 779. Bear in mind, what makes you think LH doesn’t like their 748? They’re still flying today and will be for a while. The 380 was a mistake in which I doubt they’ll make again. Even emirates knows that can make that same mistake again. Why is the forum so pressed on the 350-1000 being so much better than the 779?! Why can’t you people settle on the fact that they’re both great aircraft and we have to wait and see? Does the 779 bother you that much? Or you just hate it because it’s Boeing that made it, hence it must fail?


I obviously cannot speak on the behalf of others, but I have not seen anyone post in this thread that the 77X will be an utter failure, for any reason, and certainly not just because it's made by Boeing. What I have said, and will say again; is that Boeing seem to have missed the market with the 77X, and it has a striking resemblance to what Airbus did with the A380 a few years ago. I won't go over the comparison again, as I have explained it multiple times now, and it seems I am not entirely alone in seeing the similarities between the two projects.

BA and LH both have routes and a market which will suit the 77X, although we obviously don't know which specific routes that they plan to deploy them upon I am willing to bet they will either serve alongside the A380 in the case of BA or perhaps replace them with LH. I think that is perhaps where you have misunderstood my opinion of 77X, it's not that I don't think that there is any market for it, but that it's an incredibly limited one, and ironically the exact same market with the exact same customers that the A380 served.


I also have no idea why you seem to take my own, or anyone's, critique of Boeing as some sort of personal affront. I understand that you're passionate about aviation, I am, as I think most who post here are. But if all we posted was good news, and we were always in agreement, what would be the point of a discussion forum? There would be nothing to discuss. It's also worth bearing in mind just how far Boeing has fallen from grace. Prior to the disaster, which was (and perhaps still is) the 787 development program they hadn't really put a foot wrong within civil aviation (ignoring the 2707, as concord was hardly a success) and they dominated almost every segment of it. Things are a little different now, and just as we have gone over, and over, the reasons behind the lacklustre performance of various Airbus programs - especially the A380 - Then it's only fair to expect the same inquisition when a Boeing program doesn't seem to be going to plan.

The vitriol for the 777X is right there in title of the thread "white elephant". It took more than a decade after the A380 entered service that it became clear that the program would never reach the lofty goals Airbus set. We are arguing over the fate of an aircraft that's at least two years from revenue service.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/white-elephant
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:15 am

Revelation wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
The 2% better than expected from LH will bring it more in to line as to what’s needed and would bring the expected fuel burn per pax no in line with the A35k but only on spec seating, not a per m2 cabin area.

With the A35K at the same cabin density as the spec 779x the 779x needs a spec range of 7750nm to demonstrate this. This difference in performance is about the difference between the A346 and 77w. Why would Boeing keep that sort of performance change secret?

Why would LH even bother ordering 777X having A359 on order and knowing A35K was being developed?

Why take on a new aircraft type, new engine, new pilot training regime instead of just going with A35K?

FWIW, Keesje already went with "mercy order", no fair reusing that one.
I would assume that it works well as a 747 replacement.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:28 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
They’ll say maximum movement per aircraft which in my opinion is daft on the airline if the A35K has even better CASM and is smaller by what? 40 seats?


No they wont. Well I would ask, why did LH order the A380 and the 748?

That’s what Fred said. He said maximum movement per aircraft that’s why people buy the. 779.

Look at BA who are known for very good fleet planning. They already had the 35K, they must be idiots for picking the 779. Bear in mind, what makes you think LH doesn’t like their 748? They’re still flying today and will be for a while. The 380 was a mistake in which I doubt they’ll make again. Even emirates knows that can make that same mistake again. Why is the forum so pressed on the 350-1000 being so much better than the 779?! Why can’t you people settle on the fact that they’re both great aircraft and we have to wait and see? Does the 779 bother you that much? Or you just hate it because it’s Boeing that made it, hence it must fail?


The 779 is bigger. We need to learn what set of routes will be better served by 779 than the A35K.

Take BA for example. What routes will they deploy 779 on? Will it earn its keep over the A35K? Or is having both (sets of) vendors just a supply chain management strategy? Once we see the 779 in revenue action, (for several years), we will be better able to understand the role it will play as it gets deployed preferentially over A35K.

This is a horse race. Each type will win on certain routes.

FWIW, I like Boeing and Airbus almost equally. Both companies have made A+ commercial aircraft and also some real duds in the past 20 years.
 
Scotron12
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:56 pm

To take BA as an example is a good idea. Their home base LHR being one of the most congested and slot constrained in Europe. Yet they will operate their B779s with only 325 seats!

Even their B744s were configured with only 297 seats, albeit with a hefty Club section. But their A350s are configured with 331 seats. No F cabin, but a big Club section of 56 seats.

Full travel recovery is not expected before 2024, and that is to pre-Covid levels. BA will need a significant business travel climate to sustain that Club section offering. Then again, in another thread they are threatening to leave LHR because of increase in landing fees. Go figure!!
 
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Revelation
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:48 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Why would LH even bother ordering 777X having A359 on order and knowing A35K was being developed?

Why take on a new aircraft type, new engine, new pilot training regime instead of just going with A35K?

FWIW, Keesje already went with "mercy order", no fair reusing that one.

I would assume that it works well as a 747 replacement.[/quote]
So, maybe not a "white elephant"...

The customer with the biggest order didn't even operate the 747 yet ordered 777X and not A35K.

Seems there is a role for a two engined state of the art 747 in the world's airlines.
 
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reidar76
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:27 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
To take BA as an example is a good idea. Their home base LHR being one of the most congested and slot constrained in Europe. Yet they will operate their B779s with only 325 seats!

Even their B744s were configured with only 297 seats, albeit with a hefty Club section. But their A350s are configured with 331 seats. No F cabin, but a big Club section of 56 seats.

Full travel recovery is not expected before 2024, and that is to pre-Covid levels. BA will need a significant business travel climate to sustain that Club section offering. Then again, in another thread they are threatening to leave LHR because of increase in landing fees. Go figure!!


BA is a good example. They love the A380, had a large 747 fleet, and ordered 18 A350-1000 and 18 777-9. The 777-9 was ordered just two years ago, before the A350-1000 entered service with BA.

BA is a major 787 operator, including the 787-10. The 777-9 was intended as a 747 replacement, with the 777-9 delayed and covid, the 747 fleet has already been retired.

The difference between the A350-1000 and the 777-9:
- BA ordered 18 of each.
- Will be configured with near identical number of seats (334 vs 331).
- The extra floor space on the 777-9 will be used for a small number of first class seats. The A350-1000 doesn't have first class, but do have 56 lay flat business class seats.
- The A350-1000 have more range than the 777-9, but both should be able to operate any of British Airways’ existing routes.
- The 777-9 has 48 LD3 cargo positions against 44 on the A350-1000.

The A380 have far more business class seats (97), and a large first class cabin (14 suites). In BA configuration a total of 469 seats. Even with fewer business class seats, the 747-400 had only 275 seats. This illustrates well the size of the A380. It is a 777-9 on the main deck and a 787 on the upper deck.

But why did BA order both the A350-1000 and the 777-9? The difference is really just a few first class seats and four LD3 containers. The A350-1000 have better range, but it doesn't seem BA needs it that much. It might come down to a fire sale from Boeing. They needed some momentum on the 777X sale campaign.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:44 pm

reidar76 wrote:
But why did BA order both the A350-1000 and the 777-9? The difference is really just a few first class seats and four LD3 containers. The A350-1000 have better range, but it doesn't seem BA needs it that much. It might come down to a fire sale from Boeing. They needed some momentum on the 777X sale campaign.

Or it could be that flying those extra seats and containers at similar or better economics commands a premium, BA has lots of 777 and 787 trained pilots that can transition with minimal cost / down time, BA has a comfort level from 77W, etc. Otherwise, there are a lot of factors that would say just take A35K and accept a few less containers and seats.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:57 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
I also have no idea why you seem to take my own, or anyone's, critique of Boeing as some sort of personal affront


The critique seems rather relentless and doesn’t actually contain verifiable information about operation costs, fuel burn or purchase price.

Daysleeper wrote:
Opus99 wrote:

Daysleeper, relax and read again.

1. 20% I believe is per seat

2. Lufthansa said 15%

3. Publicly targeted 13%


I'm perfectly relaxed and calm thank you :)

But wow, I had no idea it was that bad. You know that Airbus are working on 10-abreat economy on the A350, yeah? Granted it won't be comfortable but 10 abreast never is.

I expected 20% better fuel burn, not per seat. And definitely not 13% better per seat - Let's hope these are just early testing numbers and they improve by EIS. Otherwise it's toast, why would an Airline opt to burn 10,000 KGs more fuel on a 10 hour trip for just a few extra seats? Unless as I previously stated they are slot restricted, or choosing to make it some sorta of "Flag Ship" and fuel burn be dammed. Kinda like EK did with the A380, and it looks for all intents that they plan to do with the 77X.

That's actually made me really sad, as I am genuinely not a hater and I look forwards to seeing a 77X. But unless I am understanding those numbers all wrong (which is possible, I am often an idiot) its as dead as a dodo. :(

Fuel burn numbers I grabbed from here I am not sure of where they sourced them, but they fit well with everything I have seen posted so I went with them.


The confusion caused by using trip fuel comparisons and fuel burn per hour comparisons for airplanes that aren’t the same size seems disingenuous. We all know the 777-9 is bigger, so it feels that you set up a claim to expect it will have 20% better trip fuel burn which was never realistically plausible just to be able to say it is “toast”. That isn’t a simple “critique”.
 
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par13del
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:02 pm

Per the thread title, if the 748 was Boeing's response to the A380 and some are now declaring the A380 a white elephant, was the 748 given that designation BEFORE the A380 so now both have balanced out each other?
The A350 is not a white elephant and the Boeing response is the 777X, so should we wait to see how the 777X fares when deployed?
 
Scotron12
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:45 pm

Opus mentioned that BAs B779 will replace 4 B772s leaving the fleet in 2025. BA have a ton of 772s to replace, so we'll see a mix of both the A350 and B779 taking over. I always felt the A359 would be a good fit at BA. They still hold 18 options on the bigger sibling, and retained the order for EI rather than cancelling.

For a carrier the size and breadth of IAG, having such a diverse range of aircraft is not an issue.
 
smartplane
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:57 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Daysleeper wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
And what would we know? They’ve told us it is 20% better than the 777-300ER. And they’ve been saying it more and more the last couple of weeks. Did Airbus do anything different before EIS in communicating that the 350-1000 was better than the 777-300ER other than telling you it was?



We don't and that's the point. With the A35K we all knew it was going to be much better than the 77W because it weighs 30-odd thousand Kg's less and has modern engines. It was a no-brainer.

Airbus were selling the efficiency gains of the A350 over the 777 hard, and although I am struggling to remember the threads back then, I am pretty sure we had reliable-ish data to back up their claims.

Why would Boeing want to keep just how much more efficient the 77X is a secret?

How are they keeping it a secret? They’ve been saying it’s 20% better than the 300ER. Maybe you people want them to share the data from flight testing.

The thing has been flying for 2 years but I think there have been other issues to focus on than what a.net thinks Boeing is trying to hard. Okay they say oh wow the 777X is so so much better than we thought! Yeah okay well how about you get it certified? When’s that going to be? Well we are not sure? Then nobody really gives a damn. As for STC who was looking for anything that could stick and now that initial NAMS has been done and shared, he’s not barking about performance anymore. It’s now delivery time.

Boeing learned some very useful lessons from how RR handled 787 issues, which at the 3rd attempt were incorporated in MAX order preservation - suspended milestone payments, escalating compensation to a point then start to erode, watertight NDA, compensation discounts for model and / or brand hopping...........

If Boeing publish performance now, and announce firm delivery dates, given the weak state of the market, it will force customers to make decisions, and either cancel, defer, or re-commence milestone payments, which in turn will trigger ASC606 reviews. It's in the interests of Boeing, GE and customers at present to put the X into suspended animation.

However, at some point, either a customer is going to break ranks (can't see who unless they get an Airbus offer they can't refuse), or compensation cost is going to become unbearable.

Numbers are known, Boeing will be using the time available to make improvements. Customers for now, are prepared to leave their orders in limbo. But Airbus will not be sitting still, so expect more A35 model improvement announcements, ultrafan leaks, F developments.................
 
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Pythagoras
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:28 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
I obviously cannot speak on the behalf of others, but I have not seen anyone post in this thread that the 77X will be an utter failure, for any reason, and certainly not just because it's made by Boeing. What I have said, and will say again; is that Boeing seem to have missed the market with the 77X, and it has a striking resemblance to what Airbus did with the A380 a few years ago. I won't go over the comparison again, as I have explained it multiple times now, and it seems I am not entirely alone in seeing the similarities between the two projects.


I don't know how anyone can state definitively that Boeing "missed the market with the 777X" when one is still within the COVID pandemic which has entirely disrupted the long-haul market for which it was designed. Certainly at this time and as we move out of the pandemic, the long-haul traffic is going to favor aircraft that are easier to fill with paying passengers. However, once traffic returns, say about 2024, there will be a lot of aircraft that were retired earlier than planned that will need to be replaced.

Fundamentally, the success of the 777X is really dependent upon the large major airlines that effectively operate a hub model--Emirates, British, Singapore. The 777X is essentially an airplane spec'd by Emirates to fill their fleet needs. As of November 2021, it is reported that the Emirates fleet is comprised of:
    121 (2 on order) A380-800
    124 777-300ER
    10 777-200ER
The order book for Emirates is listed as:
    50 A350-900
    115 777X
    30 787-9
What is on-order is not sufficient to replace the current up-lift in Emirates' current fleet. So we know that further orders will be forth-coming from Emirates just to replace its current fleet. And traffic growth that occurs will only add onto the order book. The COVID pandemic has only placed a pause on its replacement cycle as its existing fleet has been parked and expensive mid-life checks deferred for several years.

Furthermore, the reason for why the A380 was developed isn't going away. Some airports are slot constrained, especially for business travelers who are looking to depart at times convenient to their schedule. So one will see a bias towards larger aircraft at the world's major metropolis--Los Angeles, New York, London, Beijing, Hong Kong. Even though many airline fleets might be weighted towards smaller aircraft capable of bypassing the large hubs, airlines will still need a sub-fleet comprised of a few large wide bodies for these major population centers.

Big picture, as I look at the situation, the era of low cost travel and annual traffic growth of 5.0 per cent is going to end. There is absolutely no feasible means possible for airlines to commit to Sustainable Aviation Fuels or Carbon Free Growth and maintain these growth rates. Now it may take a decade or so for this to be evident, but the reality is that I don't see us remaining at the current 19% of ticket cost being attributed to fuel. At the least, we are going to see fuel prices closer to the 30%-40% of a decade ago. Fuel prices of this magnitude are going to favor the most efficient aircraft available, which means turn-over of the existing fleet in favor of more efficient aircraft and route structures which favor minimizing fuel burn. This is going to benefit both A350 and 777X aircraft over the next 20 years.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:23 pm

From what I have read the A350-1000 and the 779 ought to be pretty close in terms of performance. And yet the 779 has sold three times as many in spite of being on sale for a much shorter time. It is curious to me that EK has steadfastly refused to order the A3510 but jumped in with both feet when the 779 was offered. And LH, just about the only airline that stuck with the A346 and even ordered more after the 77W proved to be vastly superior has ordered both. Of course since COVID hit there have been no new orders for either AFAIK, and we are getting rumors but no hard data about the 779’s performance. But I will endorse the theory that a silent STC is a happy STC, along with LH’s expressions of satisfaction to mean that the performance of the 779 will be at the minimum satisfactory. So I am of the opinion that once international travel returns to normal that the 779 will do all right. Whether or not it continues to outsell the A3510 is at this point unknowable. But I do not expect either one to dominate the way the 77W did.
 
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keesje
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:49 pm

I think the 777x certification problems, delays and cancellations have little to do with the Covid-19 situation.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:29 pm

I expect the Ge9X to exceed expectations and carry the 777X program to success. It will have a small SFC advantage over the Trent XWB engine. This covers any weight deficiency.

Once the market recovers and then starts growing, airlines in 2030 will wish the A380 was still available. The 777-9 will sell very well being the largest available.

I also do not expect Rolls Royce to provide a new engine for the A350 family for more than a decade if at all due to them having to entirely change their engine architecture. The 777X will have the engine advantage for the next decade.

One must remember that only the A350-900 has the fully optimized Trent Engine. The A350-1000 has a modified engine to gain extra thrust at the expense of fuel efficiency. The XWB-97 faster spinning fan has much greater tip losses and the bypass ratio was reduced to provide the extra thrust. The 777-9 will easily beat the A350-1000 engine performance.

In terms of CASM. Usually airlines go with the smallest aircraft possible if CASM is equal or better. This is why the A321 with the best CASM is getting put on widebody routes. On the other hand airlines will go with a larger aircraft if it has a significant CASM advantage. This is where the A380 failed it needed a very large CASM advantage to justify its size. The A380 did have the best CASM it just simply needed to be better.

With most aircraft families the longer family member provides the best CASM advantage and sells well. But in the case of the A350 family the unoptimised engine of the A350-1000 eats away at the CASM advantage making it unattractive. The A350-1000 does not have the required CASM advantage to justify the size increase.

The 777-9 will have a CASM advantage just large enough to justify the size increase over the A350-900 and 787. The A350-900 and 787-9 models still provide the best CASM relative to their smaller sizes so I expect these two models to capture the majority of 777W replacement orders despite being smaller in size.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:16 am

Well with 245 posts already on a thread that has virturaly no new news except that the 779 was at DAS and did some amazing Air Show flying, the general gist is that the 77X is a POS that will never sell another copy and that Boeing should just cancel the plane here and now - because the A35X is SO superior in all of its missions. PLEASE just come to your senses everyone. Would this world be better if there were only 787, A330, and A350 flying - what a boring world.

We are in a period where there will be very few wide body orders, most already on the books will be taken but with deferrals extending many out. Both will have to be running at reduced rates such that the current backlog lasts 5 to 6 years. Four years out we will find out the market - order dry spell, <> OK orders <> orders going crazy. If the dry spell is long and deep either or both may cease production, if going crazy it will be party time, if OK it means the OEM's, airlines, and engine makers will be hurting profitability.
 
JonesNL
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:40 am

RJMAZ wrote:
I expect the Ge9X to exceed expectations and carry the 777X program to success. It will have a small SFC advantage over the Trent XWB engine. This covers any weight deficiency.

So, the engine is so good that it will overcome the weight deficiency of +30t OEW ~20%. I sure hope you are right, as it would be a revolution on it’s own.
Until now all indications are showing that the 787-9 and A350-900 are the better choice…
 
RJMAZ
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:11 am

JonesNL wrote:
So, the engine is so good that it will overcome the weight deficiency of +30t OEW ~20%. I sure hope you are right, as it would be a revolution on it’s own.
Until now all indications are showing that the 787-9 and A350-900 are the better choice…

That is not how it works. Look at the 787-10 Vs A350-900. The 787-10 has a approximately 4% more cabin area and 4% lower empty weight. That's a pretty large 8% difference. Yet the A350-900 burns less fuel on a long haul flight as the A350 spent the extra weight on a larger wing.

If you take the same aircraft fuselage and have two different wing options a 50m and 70m wing. The 70m wing will burn less fuel and require less thrust at cruise despite having the heaviest empty weight. If the requirement was to only fly short haul then it is best to fit the smaller 50m wing and put bigger engines to compensate.

Let's compare 777-9 Vs A350-1000.
Wing root to tip: 32.77m vs 29.4m
Cabin area: 329.8m2 vs 364.7m2
Thrust: 97klb vs 110klb
MTOW: 316t vs 351t

The 777-9 has
11.5% more wing
11% more cabin area
13% more thrust (superior hot/high performance)
11% higher MTOW
16% higher empty weight

As you can see it is consistently 11% larger so really the empty weight is only 5% higher being at 16%.
GE claims the Ge9x has 10% better SFC than the GE90 and 5% better than the best engine in its class. This can only mean the Trent XWB. A 5% engine advantage to the 777-9 will see it beating the A350-1000.

The wing fold mechanism no doubt increases the empty weight compared to just having a fixed of the same span but the fuel burn penalty if that extra weight would be worth the savings of still being able to use code E gates. Code F gates will disappear eventually.


viewtopic.php?t=769733
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777X
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A350
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